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Trade Chatter: Segura, Goldschmidt, Astros, Gomes

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After last winter’s deep freeze, many in the game are surely wondering when the action will truly get underway this time around. We’re still awaiting a monster free agent pact, but the first blockbuster trade is now in the books. For the Mariners, sending James Paxton out for a package featuring two near-MLB pitchers was designed to open a new contention window in one or two years, GM Jerry Dipoto acknowledged today in an interview on 710 ESPN. (H/t TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune, via Twitter.) That largely fits the prior indications that Dipoto has given, perhaps helping set the stage for the club’s remaining offseason work. Certainly, there could be quite a few more deals for the ever-active Dipoto to explore with that goal in mind. As we recently covered in breaking down the club’s offseason situation, the M’s have several other assets that could make sense as trade chips.

Now that the ice has been broken, here’s the latest trade chatter from around the game:

  • In an interesting side note following tonight’s major swap, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets that the Yankees also sought to discuss Jean Segura in their talks with the Mariners. Segura has now established himself as a quality regular at short and is playing on a reasonably priced contract extension. He’d obviously help the Yanks fill in for the injured Didi Gregorius — which would presumably all but take the club out of the running for free agent star Manny Machado. Obviously, the Segura side of the talks did not progress. Whether the possibility of a deal could be revisited is not clear, but it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see the clubs circle back.
  • While the Astros had interest in Paxton, they weren’t willing to budge on including top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley to get a deal done, Morosi adds on Twitter. It’s rather unsurprising to hear that the Houston organization drew a hard line there, as the 21-year-old has one of the loftiest ceilings of any pre-MLB hurler in baseball and perhaps isn’t far from cracking the majors. Presumably the ’Stros had a different package on offer that was simply deemed inferior to the one that got the deal done. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow will no doubt move on to a series of other potential targets, as rotation improvement remains a clear need.
  • Trade talks involving Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, meanwhile have seemingly yet to get going in earnest. To this point, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets, the Astros and Cardinals “have had the most meaningful discussions” of any organizations in baseball. But that’s just relative to their peers, not an indication that either club is particularly likely (let alone close) to striking a deal for one of the game’s best and steadiest offensive performers. Of course, it’s also still entirely unclear just what the D-Backs will look to do with such a key player. An extension still does not appear to be out of the question, though there have been no hints that one is in the works. Even in a trade scenario, the team will have to decide whether to try to use Goldschmidt as a vehicle to shed salary (by attaching another contract) or recoup talent.
  • As they seek to make some tweaks to an increasingly expensive roster, the Indians are receiving “significant trade interest” in backstop Yan Gomes, Rosenthal tweets. It’ll be interesting to see how the market ends up valuing Gomes, who’s due $7MM in 2019 and then another $2MM in buyouts on successive options (if they aren’t exercised). That seemed a bargain when he was turning in big offensive numbers back in 2013 and 2014, but his multi-year lull left the contract seemingly turned the back end of the contract sour. Now, though, the 31-year-old is coming off of his best showing with the bat in years. In 2018, he slashed .266/.313/.449 and swatted 16 home runs in 435 plate appearances. That said, it’s far from clear whether the bump in productivity was the result of a sustainable improvement. Gomes walked at an anemic 4.8% clip and rode a .336 batting average on balls in play — though he did produce a greater hard-hit rate (38.7%) and average exit velocity (88.9%) than he ever had previously. He also set new personal high-water marks in launch angle and line-drive rate, accomplishing the latter by significantly paring down on the number of balls he put on the ground. Given his strong reputation as a defender, Gomes would seem to be quite an appealing target as a league-average hitter, so teams that find cause to believe in the bat will surely have interest.

Yankees Acquire James Paxton

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The Yankees have officially struck a deal to acquire lefty James Paxton from the Mariners, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link) first reported. Top pitching prospect Justus Sheffield is coming to Seattle in return, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times (Twitter link). Completing the return are outfielder Dom Thompson-Williams and righty Erik Swanson, per Corey Brock of The Athletic (via Twitter).

This is the first major move of the winter market, bringing a top-shelf starter to a New York club that has long been rumored to be seeking to boost its rotation. Having already inked CC Sabathia earlier in the winter, the Yanks now appear unlikely to pursue more than one additional starter, though they’ll still have ample financial flexibility to go after any available pitchers.

Meanwhile, the M’s have now kicked off a winter in which they’ll attempt to walk a tightrope act of staying at least reasonably competitive while enhancing their roster’s long-term outlook. Paxton just turned 30 earlier this month, but he’s down to two more season of arbitration control, so he was one of the team’s more obvious assets to market. Previously, the club sent out regular catcher Mike Zunino, another player with two seasons to go until free agency.

In adding Paxton, the Yankees aren’t just getting a highly talented pitcher. They’re getting one at an eminently reasonable rate of pay. MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz project Paxton to earn $9.0MM this winter; if he turns in a great year, he’ll get a nice raise on that amount, but that would also mean the club would be more than happy to pay it. Ultimately, these salary levels land a far sight shy of Paxton’s open-market value — at least, that is, assuming he’s at full health.

At his best, Paxton is among the game’s most dominant rotation pieces. Aptly dubbed the Big Maple, the Canadian southpaw has struck out 11 batters per nine over the past two seasons while averaging a reasonable 2.4 BB/9. That’s rare air for a starter. His ERA ballooned a bit this year to 3.76, owing to a few extra long balls, but he posted a 2.98 mark in 2017. Plus, ERA estimators were quite enamored of his output in the just-completed campaign (3.24 FIP, 3.02 xFIP, 2.96 SIERA).

Of course, this all comes with a caveat. Paxton has never thrown a full MLB campaign, with his 28 starts in 2018 representing a career high. He also just barely (by a third of a frame) passed the 160 innings-pitched threshold for the first time last year. Health issues remain an ever-present concern and will perhaps dictate the outcome of this swap from the Yankees’ perspective.

The Yankees will hang their hat on the fact that Paxton mostly avoided significant injury issues in 2018. He missed time after being struck by a comebacker, which was obviously just an instance of poor fortune, after previously being sidelined for lower back inflammation. Those sorts of maladies aren’t the real concern, though. Previously, Paxton has missed time with forearm, shoulder, and biceps problems.

The good news is that Paxton has delivered a pristine version of his power arsenal when he has been able to unleash it. He has averaged 95.9 mph on his four-seamer over each of the past two seasons. And his swinging-strike rate is still on the rise, moving up to a personal-best 14.3% in 2018. If he can carry that forward, even if it’s not quite for a full 32-start campaign, the Yankees will likely be quite pleased with this move.

Turning back to the Mariners side, it’s still a bit difficult to know whether this portends quite a few more moves or whether the club will mostly pick around the edges from this point forward. Certainly, the organization has other marketable assets — as well as some under-water contracts that it might look to unload. It was only two weeks ago that we first learned of the Mariners’ somewhat surprising plans to move some key MLB assets this winter. The shape of the final roster remains very much in doubt, though GM Jerry Dipoto acknowledged today that the club is focused on a 2020-2021 window. (H/t TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune, via Twitter).

It’s worth noting that, in both this and the Zunino swap, the M’s have brought back players who figure to represent near-term MLB contributors. If things break right, then, the club could rebound quickly. Here, the key asset is Sheffield, a 22-year-old southpaw who originally went to New York along with Clint Frazier in the swap that send Andrew Miller to the Indians. Scouts and prospect hounds alike have long loved Sheffield for his stuff. But questions remain as to whether he’ll every full command the full arsenal sufficiently to reach his ceiling at the game’s highest level.

It’s not as if Sheffield tends to have difficulties finding the zone. He has averaged only 3.4 walks per nine innings over his five minor-league seasons, which is hardly elite but also isn’t a concerning number, standing alone. But an inability to fully dictate the location of your pitches can obviously tell in other ways, particularly against major-league hitters.

Thus far, Sheffield has managed just fine with his explosive three-pitch mix, which is led by a fastball that occasionally edges into the upper-nineties. In 2018, he turned in a 2.48 ERA in 116 games at the Double-A and (mostly) Triple-A level. He also briefly debuted in the bigs; while things didn’t go well in his three relief outings, that hardly means much for the future.

While he’s not nearly so well-known as Sheffield, Swanson is also a near-term possibility for the Mariners’ active roster. He’ll need to take a 40-man spot from the jump, as he’d otherwise be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. The 25-year-old joined Sheffield at Triple-A this year after a dominant stop at the penultimate level of the minors to begin the season.

After arriving at the Yanks’ top affiliate, Swanson worked to a 3.86 ERA over 72 1/3 innings. He was touched for ten long balls, but otherwise impressed with 9.7 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9. Prospect watchers tend to view Swanson as a back-of-the-rotation possibility, rather than any kind of frontline starter, but that’d certainly be a welcome outcome for the Mariners.

Thompson-Williams, meanwhile, reached the High-A level last year at 23 years of age. He did turn in an impressive output there, slashing .290/.356/.517 and racking up 17 home runs and 17 steals in 375 plate appearances. That represented a big leap forward for the former fifth-round pick, so it remains to be seen whether he can continue to develop as he reaches the high minors.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Projecting Payrolls: Los Angeles Dodgers

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In the opening piece in this series, we looked at the Philadelphia Phillies, a team almost certain to be a major player in this winter’s free agent market. In addition to being a fun look at a key market participant, that piece also sets forth some key assumptions to be used in this series regarding financial information available to the public.

With Philadelphia in our rear view mirror, we turn our attention to the biggest spender in recent years: the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Team Leadership

Despite being a marquee franchise, the Dodgers found themselves embroiled in a quagmire during much of the last decade, with Frank McCourt’s tumultuous ownership ending with a bankruptcy sale to Guggenheim Partners in 2012. Guggenheim — consisting of Mark Walter, Magic Johnson, Stan Kasten, Peter Guber, Bobby Patton, and Todd Boehly — added Billie Jean King and Ilana Kloss as minority owners in 2018, comprising the current group. As is well known, they have spent aggressively throughout their ownership, fueled in large part by an $8.3 billion, 25-year television rights deal with Time Warner.

After directing a run of success in Tampa Bay, Andrew Friedman joined the Dodgers as President of Baseball Operations on a lucrative five-year, $35 million deal after the 2014 season. Despite that massive contract, this is actually a time of some uncertainty with the front office. Friedman named Farhan Zaidi his general manager shortly after taking over in 2014, but Zaidi left to run the rival Giants earlier this month. It is also worth noting that the Dodgers have yet to guarantee an outside free agent even $50 million during Friedman’s tenure.

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both.

As with the Phillies, we’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Dodgers, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership. With the Dodgers, this captures nearly the entirety of the McCourt years and all of Guggenheim’s free spending ways. Here is what the Dodgers have spent in the prior 14 seasons:

The Dodgers payroll story tracks the story of their ownership changes remarkably well. In the mid-2000s, McCourt increased spending to build a winner before corralling expenditures as his divorce from ex-wife Jamie and the effects of purchasing the team with so much debt caught up with him. Then the Guggenheim folks showed up and blew the top off of what most of us thought was the ceiling for spending outside of the Bronx. Importantly, the figures above do not include luxury tax payments, meaning that Dodgers spending was actually notably higher over that span thanks to the taxes that accompanied their lavish spending.

Unlike Philadelphia, the Dodgers were substantial players in the Latin American amateur market before Major League Baseball imposed significant spending restrictions, handing out substantial deals to the likes of Yadier Alvarez, Yusniel Diaz, Omar Estevez, and Erisbel Arruebarrena. In the end, as gaudy as the Major League spending figures were, amateur spending added a significant amount to overall expenditures reflected above, at least during the Guggenheim period of ownership.

Future Liabilities

For a team known for its massive spending habits, the Dodgers have surprisingly little in the way of long-term guarantees, especially when compared to other big spenders in major markets competing for the World Series each year.

Here is a look at their future guarantees with the powder blue highlight indicative of a player option — in the case of Kenley Jansen, this is an opt-out prior to the 2020 season.  As mentioned above, note that the numbers shown on here are cash payments by year, not the salary plus the prorated amount of any bonus. The AAV column captures the player’s luxury tax number.

The Dodgers’ new deal with Clayton Kershaw gives them an ace on a reasonably short-term deal. While the annual financial commitment is high, the Dodgers must have been pleased to keep the term so modest.

Beyond Hill, their salary sheet is loaded with short-term commitments until we hit Maeda. Maeda’s contract is heavily incentive driven. Maeda receives $3 million annually, then receives the following incentives:

  1. $0.15 million for making Opening Day roster
  2. $1 million for each of 15 and 20 starts, then $1.5 million for each of 25, 30, and 32 starts
  3. $0.25 million for each of 90, 100, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150, 160, 170, 180, and 190 innings pitched, then $0.75 million for 200 innings pitched

It is an extraordinarily team-friendly pact, one that has played out handsomely for Los Angeles. From a budgetary standpoint, however, it does present plenty of uncertainty.

At the bottom of the chart, we see two lines with hefty numbers but no tax component. First, we see the remaining half of the $48 million owed to Scott Kazmir from his three-year deal covering the 2016-18 seasons. Instead of receiving $16 million per year or something close to it, Kazmir received $8 million annually for six years. As such, he will receive his $8 million annual payouts in 2019-21, but those cash receipts won’t count against the Dodgers’ luxury tax figure. Cuban pitcher Yaisel Sierra obtained a substantial guarantee from the Dodgers, but he is yet to pass Double-A and didn’t record an inning in affiliated ball in 2018. Because L.A. removed him from their 40-man roster (under a rule that has now been amended), his significant cash guarantees do not count against the luxury tax figure for the Dodgers either.

Moving to arbitration, the Dodgers feature a pair of massive paydays for pending free agents in Yasiel Puig and Alex Wood. On the other hand, they appear to have “lucked” into artificially deflated arbitration pay rates for shortstop Corey Seager due to a poorly timed injury in his platform year. Here are the arbitration statuses (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

The Dodgers have a number of key contributions controlled via arbitration, but as is the case with most teams, there are some players here who stand a good chance of being non-tendered. From this viewpoint, it looks like Koehler, Garcia, and Rosscup will likely get the boot. Regardless of what happens with that trio, only a couple of million dollars in savings are there to be found.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

This is where things get interesting. Really interesting. Last week, the Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times got hold of a document prepared by the Dodgers before the 2017 postseason for potential investors indicating that the club intended to stay below the luxury tax threshold each year from 2019-22. This would be a striking shift from the free-spending club. The document pegged future payrolls roughly $5 million south of the luxury tax threshold in each season once player benefits are factored in, as they are for luxury tax purposes, projecting payroll at $185 million in 2019 and 2020, $191 million in 2021, and $196 million in 2022.

Will such a spending restriction come to fruition? Your guess is as good as mine. It’s worth stressing that the document was prepared before the 2017 postseason and that Shaikin cited a team official as saying that he would be “shocked” if the payroll stayed below $200 million in 2019. The team’s plans might have changed in the last 13 months, especially after back-to-back World Series losses. But one significant data point out there regarding Dodgers spending in 2019 suggests that the 2018 payroll will be far more predictive of spending in 2019 and beyond than were the payrolls from 2013-17.

Are the Dodgers a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

Simply put, this depends on how you feel about the two preceding paragraphs. If the Dodgers haven’t altered their plans since that document was prepared, it’s difficult to see them making a serious push for either player. If the Dodgers were merely posturing with the leaked document or setting forth an aspirational threshold that they don’t actually expect to hit, Harper or Machado is surely in play as the franchise continues to be flush with cash as they chase a World Series title that has proved elusive. (Those same leaked projections also predicted significant revenue increases.)

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The standard disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.

Whereas the Phillies will clearly spend and spend big, the Dodgers enter this offseason as a wild card. They have enough talent on the Major League roster and in the upper levels on the farm to expect another excellent season in 2019 without marquee additions this winter. They lack an obvious hole — provided, at least, that the Dodgers believe in Matt Kemp’s 2018 resurgence. Of course, even if they don’t buy into Kemp repeating his surprising success, Alex Verdugo is likely ready to jump to the big club to take his job.

If the Dodgers are serious about capping their spending south of the tax line, they won’t make a big move. Even removing Koehler, Garcia, and Rosscup, the Dodgers are projected to spend $196.5 million including the hits for Kazmir, Sierra, and Toscano. Removing that trio, they are still at $184.3 million. There just isn’t enough payroll space to make a splash. If, on the other hand, the Dodgers get serious about Harper, they could create enough financial wiggle room to sign him by upping payroll by a few million dollars, shipping out Puig, and trading one of their lefty starters: Wood, Rich Hill, or Hyun-Jin Ryu. Friedman would likely be able to find a market for his moderate-sized contracts should he elect to go that route, though Ryu would have to approve any deal before June 15th of 2019 since he accepted a qualifying offer and is therefore treated like a signing free agent.

While it seems crazy to think that they’ll actually hold tight to their purse strings, the presence of impact talent on the farm and a strong Major League roster lends credence to the idea that L.A. could roll into 2019 with their core largely intact from 2018, allowing Machado to leave in free agency after a mercenary visit while passing on the chance to bring Harper back to the Southwest. Crazier things have happened.

We’ll find out if I’m a chump for believing this in the coming weeks.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $195 million

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: -$1.5 million

Korea’s KIA Tigers Sign Jacob Turner, Jeremy Hazelbaker

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8:02pm: The club has announced the signing of Turner as well as that of outfielder Jeremy Hazelbaker (via Yonhap News; again, as conveyed by Kurtz). Turner receives a $1MM salary ($300K via signing bonus), while Hazelbaker will take home $700K ($200K signing bonus).

The 31-year-old Hazelbaker has impressive MLB numbers in a small sample. He has also at times posted compelling numbers in the upper minors, though 2018 was not his finest effort. While bouncing between three organizations, Hazelbaker ended the most recent campaign with a .204/.298/.385 slash over 356 plate appearances.

7:24pm: Veteran righty Jacob Turner has reportedly agreed to a deal with the Korea Baseball Organization’s KIA Tigers, per Naver Sports (Korean language link; h/t Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net, on Twitter). Financial terms are not known.

Turner, who is still just 27 years of age, was once one of the brightest pitching prospects in baseball. While he raced to the big leagues in his second professional season at twenty years of age, Turner has never yet been able to find sustained success.

In recent seasons, Turner has settled in as a journeyman depth asset. He had brief stints with the Marlins and Tigers in 2018, revisiting the two organizations with which he began his career. He has also appeared briefly with the Nationals, Cubs, and White Sox.

All told, Turner owns only a 5.37 ERA in his 369 MLB frames, with 5.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 along with a 46.5% groundball rate. That said, Turner is still bringing 94+ mph heat on his sinker. With youth still on his side, a return stateside can’t be ruled out if he’s able to find something in the KBO.

Brewers Finalize Coaching Staff

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The Brewers announced today that they’ve promoted Chris Hook from pitching coordinator to pitching coach, hired Steve Karsay away from the Indians organization to serve as the new bullpen coach, and hired Scott Barringer away from the Astros to serve as the new head athletic trainer. Milwaukee also formally announced the previously reported hiring of Andy Haines as hitting coach and announced that Jason Lane would reprise his role as assistant hitting coach.

Hook has been with the organization for more than a decade, primarily working as a pitching coach at the minor league level before spending the 2018 season as the organization’s pitching coordinator. The 50-year-old had an 11-year professional playing career, including 65 2/3 innings with the Giants in 1995-96. He’ll be plenty familiar with a number of the team’s homegrown arms, having worked with them along the way in their journey to the Majors.

“I think when you know players and how they think, you can move them quicker,” said Hook of that benefit (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy). “That’s the way I feel. Even though I don’t know all of these pitchers, I know a good bit of them, and I feel like they trust me. If we trust each other, you can do good things with people.”

The 46-year-old Karsay was a pitching coach in the Indians’ system for the past seven years, including a 2016-18 run as the pitching coach in Triple-A Columbus, where he worked with promising young arms like Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber, among others. Karsay collected 41 saves and posted a 4.01 ERA through 603 1/3 innings as a Major Leaguer from 1993-2006.

Barringer creates yet another opening the Astros need to fill after previous losing bullpen coach Doug White, hitting coach Dave Hudgens and assistant hitting coach Jeff Albert to other organizations (to say nothing of assistant GM Mike Elias heading to Baltimore as the new Orioles general manager). Barringer was the Astros’ assistant athletic trainer from 2017-18 and the organization’s minor league medical coordinator in 2016. Prior to that, he as a minor league athletic trainer with the Cubs and Diamondbacks for a combined five seasons.

MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents

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MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night.  6,845 people entered the contest.  Here’s where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.

1.  Bryce Harper – Phillies (34.0%), Dodgers (13.1%), Nationals (10.8%), Giants (9.8%), Cubs (8.5%), Cardinals (7.9%), White Sox (6.0%), Yankees (4.2%), Braves (1.4%), Astros (1.4%), Angels (1.1%)

2.  Manny Machado – Phillies (45.8%), Yankees (36.5%), White Sox (5.0%), Dodgers (4.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Mets (1.5%), Cubs (1.3%)

3.  Patrick Corbin – Yankees (74.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Brewers (2.5%), Angels (2.4%), Braves (2.1%), Cardinals (1.4%), Nationals (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.4%), Cubs (1.2%), Giants (1.1%)

4.  Dallas Keuchel – Astros (16.4%), Angels (13.8%), Nationals (13.5%), Brewers (9.9%), Yankees (8.2%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (6.0%), Cardinals (4.1%), Reds (3.1%), Dodgers (2.1%), Cubs (2.1%), Giants (2.0%), Padres (1.9%), Rangers (1.5%), White Sox (1.4%), Twins (1.2%), Mariners (1.2%), Athletics (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%)

5.  Craig Kimbrel – Braves (28.8%), Red Sox (25.4%), Cardinals (18.1%), Phillies (8.4%), Cubs (3.6%), Nationals (3.1%), Mets (2.6%), Astros (2.2%), Dodgers (1.5%), Angels (1.2%), Indians (1.2%)

6.  Yasmani Grandal – Nationals (21.6%), Astros (15.3%), Dodgers (14.4%), Mets (11.3%), Braves (7.8%), Angels (3.4%), Brewers (3.0%), Phillies (2.7%), Mariners (2.6%), Rockies (2.5%), Red Sox (2.5%), Athletics (1.5%), Rangers (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%)

7.  Nathan Eovaldi – Red Sox (51.5%), Brewers (5.6%), Astros (4.3%), Yankees (4.0%), Angels (3.6%), Padres (3.2%), Phillies (3.0%), Braves (2.8%), Dodgers (2.4%), Reds (2.3%), Nationals (2.1%), Cubs (2.0%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.6%), White Sox (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Twins (1.1%), Athletics (1.0%)

8.  A.J. Pollock – Giants (22.9%), Indians (9.2%), Diamondbacks (9.0%), White Sox (6.7%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (5.7%), Mets (5.4%), Cardinals (5.0%), Nationals (4.6%), Cubs (3.4%), Rockies (3.4%), Mariners (2.5%), Athletics (1.7%), Dodgers (1.6%), Angels (1.6%), Astros (1.5%), Padres (1.5%), Blue Jays (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Brewers (1.1%)

9.  J.A. Happ – Yankees (30.9%), Blue Jays (9.2%), Angels (8.2%), Brewers (6.5%), Phillies (4.7%), Astros (4.4%), Nationals (3.7%), Twins (3.1%), Athletics (3.1%), Braves (2.6%), Cubs (2.5%), White Sox (2.4%), Cardinals (2.3%), Reds (2.2%), Giants (1.7%), Mariners (1.7%), Dodgers (1.5%), Padres (1.2%), Diamondbacks (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%), Rangers (1.0%), Indians (1.0%)

10.  Michael Brantley – Braves (30.8%), Indians (10.1%), Giants (9.5%), Phillies (4.9%), Cardinals (4.5%), White Sox (4.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Cubs (3.0%), Mariners (2.9%), Astros (2.8%), Diamondbacks (2.6%), Rockies (2.4%), Athletics (2.3%), Mets (2.3%), Blue Jays (1.9%), Angels (1.4%), Twins (1.4%), Rangers (1.2%), Padres (1.1%), Rays (1.0%), Dodgers (1.0%)

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/19/18

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Here are Monday’s minor moves from around the game…

  • The Cardinals announced a slate of minor league signings, including right-hander Mike Hauschild, left-hander Hunter Cervenka, catcher Joe Hudson, catcher Jose Godoy and first baseman/outfielder Rangel Ravelo. Each received an invitation to Major League Spring Training. St. Louis also announced previously reported Spring Training invites for Tommy Layne and Williams Perez, as well as minor league deals without Spring Training invites for righties Harold Arauz and Ramon Santos. Hauschild, 29 in January, has been hit hard in 16 1/3 MLB innings but has a career 4.02 ERA with 7.9 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 in 437 Triple-A innings (all as a starter). Cervenka posted a 3.53 ERA in 43 1/3 innings between the Braves and Marlins back in 2016 but showed serious control problems along the way and has scarcely pitched in the Majors since. Hudson,27, made a brief big league debut with the Angels in September after a quality showing between their Double-A and Triple-A affiliates. The 24-year-old Godoy and 26-year-old Ravelo are returning to the Cardinals organization. Godoy showed some solid OBP skills in High-A, while Ravelo raked at a .308/.392/.487 pace in 399 PAs with Memphis in his first season with the organization.
  • The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced that they’ve signed left-hander Kyle Regnault for the 2019 season (link via the Japan Times). Soon to turn 30, Regnault spent his first three professional seasons pitching in indy ball before joining the Mets in 2015. All of his work with affiliated clubs has come in the Mets’ system, and Regnault has a 4.10 ERA with a 130-to-47 K/BB ratio in 109 2/3 innings of Triple-A work. In his first season overseas, Regnault will secure a $400K base salary with the opportunity to earn more via incentives, as well as a $125K signing bonus (hat tip to Yakyudb.com). For a lefty that was on the indy circuit just four years ago, that’s a nice chunk of guaranteed money to bring home, and continued success in NPB would obviously lead to greater earning power.

Indians Acquire Chih-Wei Hu From Rays

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The Indians announced that they’ve acquired right-hander Chih-Wei Hu from the Rays in exchange for minor league infielder Gionti Turner. The 25-year-old Hu brings Cleveland’s 40-man roster count to 36 players, while the deal gives the Rays organization some flexibility in advance of tomorrow’s deadline to protect additional players from the Rule 5 Draft.

Chih-Wei Hu | Marilyn Indahl-USA TODAY Sports

Hu, 25, made his big league debut with Tampa Bay back in 2017 and, over the past two seasons, has pitched to a 3.52 ERA with a 21-to-7 K/BB ratio in 23 innings of big league relief. He’s averaged 93.2 mph on his heater in that time and generated a solid 11.6 percent swinging-strike rate in addition to a 32.2 percent chase rate on pitches out of the strike zone. As an extreme fly-ball pitcher, he’s been a bit homer-prone in his small sample of Major League work.

Tampa Bay initially acquired Hu from the Twins in a 2015 swap that sent Kevin Jepsen from the Rays to the Twins. Minnesota initially signed the Taiwanese-born righty as an amateur free agent back in August 2012. He’s done the entirety of his work in the Majors as a reliever, though the bulk of his minor league career has been spent as a starter. He could give Cleveland some depth in both regards, though given the current state of the Indians’ roster, the clearer path for him to contribute in the big leagues is in a relief capacity. Hu does have a minor league option remaining, so he can be sent to Triple-A Columbus to open the season without being exposed to waivers. In 174 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level, he has a 4.07 ERA with 8.3 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9.

The 18-year-old Turner had an exceptionally brief tenure as a member of the Indians organization. Cleveland selected him the 27th round of this past summer’s draft, and he went on to appear in 46 games for the club’s Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona League. He acquitted himself well, hitting .296/.348/.396 with a homer, 10 doubles, two triples and nine steals in 187 plate appearances. Turner spent 261 innings at second base, 103 innings at shortstop and 34 innings in center field during that brief professional debut.

Astros Reportedly Make Offer To Charlie Morton

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The Astros have made an initial offer to bring right-hander Charlie Morton back to Houston, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). The dollar amount of the reported offer is yet unclear, though Nightengale does specify that it’s a one-year contract with an option for a second year.

Vague as the terms may still be, it seems reasonable to expect that the total value of the pact of for less than $17.9MM. Houston surprisingly declined to make a qualifying offer at that rate to Morton, so it’d be curious to see them turn around and offer Morton anything north of that sum.

Morton, who turned 35 last week, at one point voiced uncertainty as to whether he planned to continue his playing career beyond the 2018 campaign, but he recently stated that he planned to continue pitching and would “love” to return to the Astros. However, he’s also made clear that he doesn’t plan to keep playing into his late 30s, citing a desire to spend time with his growing family. To that end, Morton suggested to The Athletic’s Jake Kaplan back in April that proximity to his wife’s family in Delaware could be a factor, were he to consider teams outside of Houston. The Phillies and Nationals would most closely meet that criteria.

Whether Morton wants to pitch another two years isn’t certain, but there’s little doubt that he should be able to find a strong multi-year offer on the open market after rapidly elevating his status upon signing with the Astros. Morton’s two-year, $14MM with Houston proved to be a remarkable bargain, as the righty made 55 starts in 2017-18 and pitched to an excellent 3.36 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9 and a 49.6 percent ground-ball rate. Perhaps, given the uncertainty about how long he wants to continue his career, a one-year pact with a substantial value and some form of vesting or player option would hold appeal to Morton. However, a guaranteed two-year deal should materialize in free agency if he wishes to lock himself into another couple of years.

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Giants reassigned general manager and longtime front office fixture Bobby Evans in order to bring some fresh ideas into the mix after two straight disappointing seasons.  Now, newly-hired president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi faces a tall order in streamlining an expensive, veteran-heavy, underachieving roster and helping guide the Giants back to contention.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in brackets; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[San Francisco Giants Depth Chart | San Francisco Giants Payroll Information]

The top eight names in the “guaranteed contracts” section (everyone except Tony Watson and Pablo Sandoval) are slated to earn approximately $135.84MM in 2019, coming off a season in which the octet generated a combined 8.3 fWAR.  That’s a lower total fWAR than Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, and Jacob deGrom produced as individuals in 2018, which is indicative of the troubling situation in which San Francisco finds itself heading into this new season.  Between homegrown names that haven’t been producing and high-priced acquisitions that range from underwhelming to disastrous, the Giants simply don’t know what to expect going forward from most of the biggest names on their roster.

Into this situation comes Zaidi, who brings more of an analytically-minded approach to the Giants’ more traditionally “old-school” front office.  Zaidi has experience finding efficiencies while working with payrolls both small (from his time in the Athletics’ front office) and large (as the Dodgers’ GM).  Ideally, the Giants would love to see Zaidi replicate what he did in Los Angeles alongside president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman — cut tens of millions in salary while still reaching the postseason every year.  The Dodgers went from touching the $300MM mark in payroll at the start of Zaidi’s tenure to getting under the luxury tax threshold this past season.

Unlike with the Dodgers, however, Zaidi inherits a Giants team that doesn’t have many polished prospects ready to step into regular roles.  And, while the Dodgers had their share of underperforming big contracts, injury questions weren’t quite as prevalent as they are for the Giants’ priciest assets heading into 2019.

Johnny Cueto, for instance, almost surely won’t pitch next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August.  Hip surgery could keep Buster Posey from the Opening Day lineup.  Brandon Belt battled knee problems down the stretch and has a lengthy injury history.  Jeff Samardzija missed much of 2018 with shoulder issues, and Mark Melancon’s two years in San Francisco have been punctuated by multiple trips to the disabled list.  Brandon Crawford dealt with nagging knee problems last year, though he also simply hasn’t hit as much over the last two years as he did from 2014-16.

Madison Bumgarner has had his own share of DL time over the past two seasons, which was certainly one reason why his numbers (3.29 ERA, 7.9 K/9, 3.33 K/BB rate over 240 2/3 IP) were a step back from his usual ace standards.  That said, Bumgarner is still easily the most intriguing trade chip/extension candidate the Giants have, and what the team decides to do with the southpaw this offseason may quite possibly determine their approach for the rest of the winter.

If Bumgarner is re-signed to another extension, the Giants will add to their ledger of long-term deals and perhaps signal that they’re aiming to get back into contention right away.  A Bumgarner trade, however, could lead one of two scenarios.  First, the Giants could approach 2019 as a bit of a mini-rebuild, to add young talent and clear some money in order to make a renewed push for 2020.  Secondly, the Giants could deal Bumgarner as part of a rebuild on the fly, adding some MLB-ready pieces that would help them fill some holes immediately.

This is complete speculation on my part, and admittedly dealing Bumgarner without getting at least one blue-chip prospect in return would be a bit of a waste.  But, the Giants could explore moving Bumgarner along with either Belt or Evan Longoria in the same deal, accepting only a moderate return of either mid-range prospects, or perhaps a big league player who could help the Giants at another position (such as maybe a third baseman to replace Longoria).  The Giants are reportedly looking to move Longoria, who struggled in his first season outside of Tampa Bay and is still owed over $73MM through 2022.  As for Belt, he was the most productive of the Giants’ long-term assets, though dealing him would free up first base for some combination of other possibilities: giving a look to prospect Chris Shaw, Posey splitting time between first and catcher, or targeting a potentially underpriced asset in free agency or trade.  Both Belt and Bumgarner have partial no-trade clauses that allow them to block deals to 10 and eight teams, respectively, so it could be a bit tricky finding a willing trade partner for this scenario who isn’t on either player’s no-trade list.

Such a deal would give San Francisco more flexibility with both roster construction and the payroll.  After they (barely) ducked under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold last season, the Giants reset their luxury penalization to zero, and they’ll pay only a first-timer minimum penalty should they surpass the $206MM payroll limit.  So while the team doesn’t necessarily face any huge restraints in regards to spending, getting one big contract off the books is probably a logical step if the team is preparing to make another high-priced addition.

Signing Bryce Harper, of course, would be the biggest such move the Giants could make, though early reports have suggested the club isn’t going to be a major suitor for the 26-year-old free agent.  San Francisco has the resources and the ownership track record to pursue just about any free agent, or to take on a big contract from another team in a trade, though it remains to seen if the Giants will be as aggressive in this regard under Zaidi as they were under the Brian Sabean/Bobby Evans regime.

If we’re mentioning Harper, it’s only fitting that we also at least throw Manny Machado’s name out there.  While Zaidi just a few months removed from bringing Machado to the Dodgers in a trade, a Machado/Giants connection seems unlikely at best.  To make room for Machado at third base or shortstop, San Francisco would have to move either Longoria or Crawford, and neither player has much in the way of immediate trade value thanks to their salaries and lackluster 2018 seasons (plus, Crawford’s contract grants him full no-trade protection).  Eating money to facilitate a Longoria/Crawford trade and also paying $350MM+ for Machado doesn’t seem like a very realistic proposition.

The two corner outfield positions and second base are the most pressing areas of need around the diamond for the Giants.  Barring trades, the other spots will be covered by Longoria at third base, Crawford at shortstop, Belt at first base, defensively-gifted youngster Steven Duggar in center field, and Posey receiving the bulk of playing time behind the plate (while also getting some rest games as a first baseman).  A reunion with veteran backup catcher Nick Hundley has been mentioned as a likely possibility while Posey is on the mend, with youngster Aramis Garcia also in the mix.

Austin Slater, Mac Williamson, Gorkys Hernandez (if he isn’t non-tendered), utilityman Alen Hanson, and Shaw are in the mix for bench duty for perhaps a share of a platoon in left or right field.  For at least one of the two outfield positions, however, the Giants will surely add an established everyday player, either on the trade front or in free agency.  If a record-setting contract for Harper is too rich for the Giants’ blood, other free agent options include Michael Brantley or old friend Andrew McCutchen.  A.J. Pollock is a center fielder by trade, though if he is willing to consider a position change, he and Duggar would be a great defensive pairing in AT&T Park’s expansive outfield (or Pollock could play center himself if Duggar isn’t ready for everyday action).

Marwin Gonzalez’s versatility makes him a good fit on most teams, though he’d be particularly useful to the Giants rotating between the corner outfield spots and second base.  Joe Panik was a replacement-level player (0.1 fWAR) last season, and considering his lack of power, the downturn in his defensive metrics, and injury history — not to mention the glut of options on the second-base market — San Francisco could simply non-tender Panik and seek out a more reliable, cost-efficient, and/or controllable option.  Jed Lowrie might be an interesting player to consider in this regard, as a familiar name to Zaidi from their time in Oakland and a quality player who wouldn’t require too lengthy a contract given his age (35 in April).

At a projected $4.2MM in arbitration, Panik isn’t a bank-breaker to retain, though the Giants could get themselves some extra cover at second base with a multi-position addition like Gonzalez.  Not to say that the next Max Muncy or Chris Taylor is awaiting the Giants, but Zaidi’s Dodgers had a knack for finding those types of hidden-gem utility types.  Looking elsewhere around the bench, Sandoval and Hanson line up as the utility options, and the Giants will have to sort through the aforementioned outfield candidates to figure out their backup situation.  Williamson and Hernandez are both out of options, which could give them a leg up on the other possibilities.

San Francisco’s bullpen turned in a quietly solid year in 2018, headlined by Watson’s excellent year and Will Smith posting some strong numbers after returning from Tommy John surgery.  Melancon also pitched well after making his season debut in June, and the Giants are hopeful that he can reclaim his old closer’s job and finally start to provide a quality return on that big contract.  I’d guess the Giants might add another depth arm or two, though relief pitching doesn’t appear to be a major priority for the team this winter.

Losing Cueto is a big hit to the Giants’ rotation, though the team did find some unexpected starting help from rookies Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez last season.  Those two 26-year-old arms are penciled into a starting five that features a lot of uncertainty, given Bumgarner’s trade situation, Samardzija’s health, and Chris Stratton’s inconsistency.  Ty Blach and minor league righties Shaun Anderson and Tyler Beede could also fight for consideration in Spring Training, though Beede will have to strongly rebound from significant struggles at both Triple-A and in a brief big league cameo.

It would theoretically help the Giants quite a bit to add another front-of-the-rotation type of pitcher who could both contribute in 2019 and also anchor the starting staff in the future, should Bumgarner depart in free agency or be shipped out in a trade.  Top free agents like Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, or Nathan Eovaldi could all fit the model as a long-term answer, or a shorter-term solution like J.A. Happ could also be considered.  The Giants are one of several teams who have scouted Yusei Kikuchi and the organization’s interest in the Japanese left-hander dates back years, so San Francisco will certainly be a player if Kikuchi is posted as expected.

While the Giants could shop at the high end of the market, it’s worth noting that the team hasn’t had much luck on expensive pitching contracts in recent years, between the Cueto and Samardzija signings and Matt Cain’s extension.  AT&T Park’s pitcher-friendly reputation make it a popular destination for relatively inexpensive veterans looking for a rebound year, so the Giants could pursue such arms in the hope of finding the next Derek Holland.  The southpaw revived his career in San Francisco last season, posting a 3.57 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 2.52 K/BB rate over 171 1/3 innings after signing a minor league contract that came with just a $1.5MM base salary.  Holland is sure to land more in his latest trip through free agency, though his price tag won’t be too high for the Giants to consider a reunion.

There’s really no shortage of options facing Zaidi, who is open to any and all possibilities when it comes to getting the Giants on track as quickly as possible.  A total rebuild doesn’t appear to be on the table this winter, nor does a major spending spree, but pretty much anything in between seems to be under consideration.  The Giants could end up being as active and creative of any team this offseason, though it remains to be seen if enough can be done to get the club turned around in time to be a factor in what should be a competitive NL West in 2019.

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