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KBO’s Lotte Giants Waive DJ Peters

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The Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization announced this week that they’re waiving former Dodgers and Rangers outfielder DJ Peters (link via Jee-ho Yoo of the Yonhap News Agency). Yoo adds that the Giants are expected to announce a new foreign-player acquisition soon.

Peters, 26, was the Dodgers’ fourth-round draft pick back in 2016 and had been in his first season in the KBO after agreeing to a one-year, $600K deal with the Giants this past offseason. He made his big league debut with the Dodgers in 2021 before being picked up by the Rangers in an early-August waiver claim and seeing fairly regular action for them down the stretch. Between the two teams, Peters batted .197/.242/.422 with 13 homers, nine doubles and a triple in 240 plate appearances — showing good power but also considerable strikeout-to-walk concerns (34.2% strikeout rate, 5.0% walk rate).

While Peters has improved on both his strikeout and walk rates in the KBO (21.8% strikeout rate, 7.3% walk rate), his overall .228/.299/.402 batting line through 354 plate appearances looks fairly similar to last year’s showing in the big leagues — plenty of pop but with glaring OBP concerns. Peters has been credited for huge power and a concerning hit tool dating back to his prospect days, and that’s largely how his career has played out through his first taste of both MLB action and KBO play.

That huge raw power — FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen credited him with 70-grade power on the 20-80 scale as recently as the 2020-21 offseason — above-average speed and strong throwing arm ought to keep getting Peters opportunities, though following a release in the KBO he’ll likely need to look to a minor league deal if he returns to North American ball. Still, it’s a tantalizing package of raw tools that a team could stash in the upper minors as depth with the hope of a potential breakout.

Orioles Select Jackson Holliday With First Pick Of 2022 Draft

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The Orioles selected high school shortstop Jackson Holliday with the first overall selection of the 2022 amateur draft.  Holliday joins Adley Rutschman (2019) and Ben McDonald (1989) as players taken by the Orioles with the 1-1 pick, and he is the first high schooler taken first overall since the Twins drafted Royce Lewis in 2017.

Talent runs in the family, as Jackson is the son of longtime Cardinals and Rockies star Matt Holliday.  Continuing the theme of family ties, the younger Holliday becomes only the second son of a former Major League player to be taken with the 1-1 selection — the first was Ken Griffey Jr. back in 1987.

Jackson HollidayTime will tell if Holliday can approach a Hall-of-Fame or All-Star level, but the 18-year-old is one of the more highly-touted members of the 2022 draft class.  Fangraphs and MLB Pipeline each ranked Holliday as the second-best prospect of the class, with Kiley McDaniel and Baseball America each slotting Holliday third on their rankings, and The Athletic’s Keith Law rated Holliday sixth.

A left-handed hitter, Holliday has a smooth swing that generated a lot of hard contract and an increasing amount of power as his senior year progressed.  Most evaluators give him at least plus grades across the board, and as Fangraphs’ scouting report puts it, Holliday “checks literally every box, and there aren’t many lefty-hitting shortstops with this kind of juice.  He projects as an All-Star shortstop.”  While not a defensive standout per se, Holliday’s instincts and throwing arm should allow him to remain at shortstop, though he would seem to have the athleticism to be tested at other positions if the Orioles wanted to experiment.

With Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg also in Baltimore’s system as blue-chip shortstop prospects, the O’s have built up some enviable depth at a key position on the diamond.  The Orioles’ lengthy rebuild has brought quite a few top youngsters into the farm system, and perhaps the earliest impact is starting to be seen on the field in 2022, given the team’s surprising presence in the wild card race at the All-Star break.

Since Mike Elias took over the Orioles’ front office, the club has traditionally drafted college players early — Grayson Rodriguez (2018) is the only other prep first-rounder selected during Elias’ tenure.  Signability has also been a factor for the O’s, who have often taken players slightly lower on projection boards, in an attempt to land players who would sign for under-slot deals.

That way, Baltimore has more bonus-pool space to spend on other quality picks later in the draft, and perhaps have flexibility to go over-slot to land premium talent at lower draft positions.  The Orioles have a $16,924,000 bonus pool, and the first overall pick has an assigned slot value of $8,842,200.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

2022 MLB Draft, First Round Results

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The 2022 MLB Draft is underway, and here is the full list of each team’s selections from the first round.  The Dodgers are the only team without a first-rounder, as their top pick (originally 30th overall) was dropped 10 places to 40th overall (the first pick of the second round) as part of their punishment for exceeding the highest luxury-tax tier in 2021.  However, there are still 30 picks in the first round proper since the Mets have both the 11th and 14th overall picks — for not signing 10th overall pick Kumar Rocker last year, New York was given a compensatory selection in the 11th overall spot this year.

This year’s draft will again be 20 rounds long, and split over three days.  The first 80 picks will be made tonight — the first two official rounds, the two Competitive Balance Rounds, and the two sets of compensatory rounds (giving picks to teams who lost qualifying offer-rejecting free agents).  Rounds 3-10 take place on Monday, and rounds 11-20 on Tuesday.

Under the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement, the 2023 draft will have several differences, including a lottery to determine the top six picks, a revamped process for deciding the Competitive Balance rounds, possible extra picks for teams due to the Prospect Promotion Incentive rules, and possibly the end of the qualifying offer system as we know it should an international draft be implemented.

For one final year under this draft format, however, let’s dive into the picks.  More details and scouting reports on all these young players are available in pre-draft rankings from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.  As well, Pipeline has the breakdown of the slot values assigned to each pick in the first 10 rounds, as well as the bonus pool money available to all 30 teams.

The selections….

  1. Baltimore Orioles: Jackson Holliday, SS, Stillwater High School (OK)
  2. Arizona Diamondbacks: Druw Jones, OF, Wesleyan High School (GA)
  3. Texas Rangers: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt (played in independent Frontier League in 2021)
  4. Pittsburgh Pirates: Termarr Johnson, SS, Benjamin E. Mays High School (GA)
  5. Washington Nationals: Elijah Green, OF, IMG Academy (FL)
  6. Miami Marlins: Jacob Berry, 3B/OF, LSU
  7. Chicago Cubs: Cade Horton, RHP, University of Oklahoma
  8. Minnesota Twins: Brooks Lee, SS, Cal Poly
  9. Kansas City Royals: Gavin Cross, OF, Virginia Tech
  10. Colorado Rockies: Gabriel Hughes, RHP, Gonzaga
  11. New York Mets: Kevin Parada, C, Georgia Tech
  12. Detroit Tigers: Jace Jung, 2B, Texas Tech
  13. Los Angeles Angels: Zach Neto, SS, Campbell University
  14. New York Mets: Jett Williams, SS/OF, Rockwall-Heath High School (TX)
  15. San Diego Padres: Dylan Lesko, RHP, Buford High School (GA)
  16. Cleveland Guardians: Chase DeLauter, OF, James Madison University
  17. Philadelphia Phillies: Justin Crawford, OF, Bishop Gorman High School (NV)
  18. Cincinnati Reds: Cam Collier, 3B, Chipola JC (FL)
  19. Oakland Athletics: Daniel Susac, C, University of Arizona
  20. Atlanta Braves: Owen Murphy, RHP, Riverside-Brookfield High School (IL)
  21. Seattle Mariners: Cole Young, SS, North Allegheny High School (PA)
  22. St. Louis Cardinals: Cooper Hjerpe, LHP, Oregon State University
  23. Toronto Blue Jays: Brandon Barriera, LHP, American Heritage High School (FL)
  24. Boston Red Sox: Mikey Romero, SS, Orange Lutheran High School (CA)
  25. New York Yankees: Spencer Jones, OF, Vanderbilt University
  26. Chicago White Sox: Noah Schultz, LHP, Oswego East High School (IL)
  27. Milwaukee Brewers: Eric Brown Jr., SS, Coastal Carolina University
  28. Houston Astros: Drew Gilbert, OF, University of Tennessee
  29. Tampa Bay Rays: Xavier Isaac, 1B, East Forsyth High School (NC)
  30. San Francisco Giants: Reggie Crawford, LHP/1B, University of Connecticut

Latest On Royals’ Trade Candidates

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The Royals are one of the relatively few teams who look like clear-cut sellers heading into the trade deadline, and there has already been buzz about several of their veteran players.  Two new teams have joined the mix, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the Dodgers have shown some interest in Whit Merrifield, while the Brewers are among the teams considering Andrew Benintendi.

Such clubs as the Padres and Mets have already been linked to Benintendi in trade rumors, though his non-vaccinated status has apparently removed such suitors as the Blue Jays and Yankees from his market — Benintendi wouldn’t be able to play in Canada altogether, while the Yankees wouldn’t want Benintendi unavailable for remaining regular-season games or potential postseason games in Toronto.

That is less of an obstacle for NL teams like the Brewers, since if Milwaukee eventually had to worry about Benintendi’s status for a potential World Series matchup against the Jays, that would count as a nice problem to have for a team battling for the NL Central lead.  The Brew Crew heads into the All-Star break with a narrow half-game lead over the Cardinals, but the Brewers are only 18-24 since the start of June.

An inconsistent offense has plagued Milwaukee, and Benintendi’s strong bat (127 wRC+) would certainly help in that regard.  A regular center fielder would probably be a better fit considering that Christian Yelich and Andrew McCutchen are already splitting left field duty, but Benintendi could get the bulk of time in left, while Yelich and McCutchen are rested, used at DH, or McCutchen could also play right field.

Merrifield has long been mentioned as a trade chip, yet while the Royals have resisted overtures in the past, they are reportedly now more open to considering a deal.  Of course, Merrfield’s trade value has also tumbled, as the 33-year-old is in the midst of the worst of his seven MLB seasons, hitting .240/.292/.343 over his first 373 plate appearances.

With Los Angeles, Merrifield likely wouldn’t be asked to adopt an everyday role, but rather be toggled around the diamond in a utility role.  Since Chris Taylor is on the injured list, Merrifield would more or less take Taylor’s role as an option at second base and all three outfield positions.  The Dodgers could also primarily use Merrifield against only left-handed pitching, though his splits against all pitchers have been underwhelming over the last two seasons.

Merrifield is also controlled through at least the 2023 season, as his contract (which was reworked back in April) calls for a $6.75MM salary next year, as he has already hit his health-based escalator clause.  He is also owed roughly $2.7MM in salary for 2022, and there is a $500K buyout of an $18MM mutual option for 2024.  Even though payroll or luxury-tax concerns aren’t a big obstacle for the Dodgers, it is possible that the Royals might be willing to kick in some money to cover Merrifield’s contract, as a reflection of his struggles this year.

Injury Notes: Montas, Brantley, Eflin, Springs, Beeks, May

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With the trade deadline approaching, Frankie Montas’ health status is of particular interest to both the Athletics and several other teams around baseball.  The right-hander tossed just one inning on July 3 and hasn’t pitched since, due to shoulder inflammation.  The A’s resisted placing Montas on the 15-day injured list, and it seems as though he could return as early as Thursday, when Oakland opens the second half with a doubleheader against the Tigers.

Montas received a cortisone shot as part of his recovery, and things went “really well” during a bullpen session yesterday, A’s manager Mark Kotsay told the San Francisco Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara and other reporters.  The club will continue to observe Montas over the All-Star break, but for now, it would seem like Montas is on pace to get back onto the mound.  Assuming regular rest, Montas would be on pace to make at least two starts prior to the August 2 deadline, though it’s also possible the Athletics could rest him if a trade is close.

More injury notes from around baseball…

  • Right shoulder discomfort sent Michael Brantley to the 10-day IL back on June 27, but the Astros outfielder still “didn’t feel right” while trying to swing last Thursday, manager Dusty Baker said.  “Right now, he’s in the same spot, no worse….That was the shoulder he got operated on years ago.  He’s still a little sore,” Baker told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters.  Brantley had shoulder surgeries in both 2015 and 2016, which limited him to only 11 games in 2016 and also delayed his return in 2017.  There isn’t yet any sense that this current injury is anywhere near as serious, however, though speculatively, Houston could perhaps look out for outfield help at the deadline should they have any longer-term concerns over Brantley’s health.
  • Zach Eflin threw a simulated game yesterday, but Phillies manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer) that Eflin came out of the session feeling a little sore, and team doctors will examine him tomorrow.  Eflin was placed on the 15-day IL on June 26 due to a right knee bruise, and Eflin is another player with a lengthy surgical history, as the righty underwent knee procedures in both 2016 and 2021.
  • Rays manager Kevin Cash updated reporters (including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) about a pair of pitching injuries, noting that Jeffrey Springs is expected to be activated during the Rays’ first series after the All-Star break.  Springs’ placement on the 15-day IL (for tightness in his lower right leg) was retroactive to July 7, so the southpaw looks like he’ll miss just the minimum amount of time.  Cash also thinks Jalen Beeks will miss only 15 days, after Beeks went to the IL just today with a similar leg injury.
  • Dustin May threw two innings of Arizona Complex League action yesterday, marking the first in-game action in his recovery from Tommy John surgery in May 2021.  May’s minor league rehab assignment is expected to last at least a month, the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett writes, but he could be an option for the Dodgers down the stretch.  As president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman recently told Plunkett and other reporters, “our plan is to build [May] up, have him start for us and then evaluate as we go,” possibly adjusting usage based on the Dodgers’ needs (in the regular season or the playoffs) and May’s health.

Giants Activate Evan Longoria, Jakob Junis From Injured List; Brandon Crawford, Mauricio Llovera Placed On IL

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TODAY: Crawford’s knee MRI revealed “nothing notable,” manager Gabe Kapler told reporters (including Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle), so there isn’t any beyond inflammation and bruising.

JULY 16: The Giants announced a series of roster moves today, with third baseman Evan Longoria and right-hander Jakob Junis returning from the 10-day and 15-day injured lists, respectively.  Longoria and Junis will take the places of two other players, as Brandon Crawford has been placed on the 10-day IL due to knee inflammation, and right-hander Mauricio Llovera was placed on the 15-day IL because of a Grade 2 flexor strain.

Crawford only just returned a few days ago from another 10-day absence due to that knee soreness, and manager Gabe Kapler mentioned at the time that Crawford has been bothered by his knee for much of the season.  Given the nagging nature of the injury and the fact that Crawford was so quickly sidelined again, it’s probably safe to guess that the shortstop will miss more than just 10 days this time around.  With the All-Star break coming, those four off-days will absorb a good chunk of the IL time for both Crawford and Llovera.

A longer absence would seem to be in order for Llovera, and it is possible his 2022 season could be over, depending on how well he can recover from the more significant strain.  The righty suffered the injury in last night’s game, after tossing 1 2/3 scoreless innings in San Francisco’s 8-5 win over the Brewers.

Llovera has a 4.41 ERA over 16 1/3 frames, with one particularly rough outing (four runs in 1/3 of an inning) against the Mets on May 23 accounting for much of that ERA damage.  Now in his third MLB season and first with the Giants, Llovera has been shuttled up and down from Triple-A multiple times this year.

Junis has missed five weeks due to a hamstring strain, and he’ll now take Llovera’s spot in the bullpen while getting built up for more rotation work.  Junis had a 2.63 ERA over his first 48 innings (starting seven of nine games) before going on the 15-day IL, and the Giants will need similar quality in their rotation now that Anthony DeSclafani is gone for the season.

A left oblique strain sidelined Longoria for only the minimum 10 days, and the veteran third baseman will now hope to finally get a sustained run of healthy baseball for the rest of the season.  Longoria already had to delay his 2022 debut until May 11 due to finger surgery, but he has hit solidly well while available, hitting .242/.331/.462 with eight homers over 151 plate appearances.

With Longoria back and Crawford out of action, the Giants will again shuffle around their versatile infield mix.  Longoria will return to his customary third base spot, and Thairo Estrada figures to get most of the playing time at shortstop.  David Villar also figures to toggle between second and third base, and Wilmer Flores will continue getting regular work as a designated hitter, second baseman, and part-time first baseman.

List Of All-Star Roster Replacements

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7:25PM: Freddie Freeman is also joining the NL roster, as the league announced that the Dodgers first baseman is replacing Starling Marte.

4:04PM: The league announced that the Cardinals’ Miles Mikolas has now been added to the NL roster, taking the spot of Brewers righty Corbin Burnes.

July 17, 1:15PM: The Mariners have announced that Ty France will be joining the festivities as well. MLB later announced the addition as well, noting that he is replacing Mike Trout. With Trout not taking part, Byron Buxton will move into the starting center fielder role for the American League.

10:05AM: MLB has announced three more additions, with one of them being the previously reported addition of Williams. The other two are closers: Liam Hendriks of the White Sox and Jordan Romano of the Blue Jays. Those three will replace Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander and Max Fried.

July 16, 11:01PM: Brewers reliever Devin Williams has also been named to the NL roster, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).

7:11:PM: Four replacements were announced to the All-Star rosters, taking the spots of four other players who won’t be part of the Midsummer Classic.  Dodgers left-hander Tyler Anderson, Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth, and Braves third baseman Austin Riley will be joining the National League’s team, while Blue Jays second baseman Santiago Espinal has been named to the American League’s roster.

Espinal is replacing Jose Altuve, who was hit in the knee by a pitch on Thursday.  Altuve sat out Friday’s action and is back in the Astros lineup tonight as the DH, but even though he is well enough to play, Altuve and the Astros will use the All-Star break to get the second baseman fully back to 100 percent.  Altuve had been voted in as the AL’s starter at second baseman, but now the Guardians’ Andres Gimenez take over as the starter for Tuesday’s game.

Jazz Chisholm was voted as the NL’s starting second baseman, but the Marlins standout will also be missing the game due to his lower back injury.  Chisholm has been on the 10-day injured list since June 28, but he has been working out at the Marlins’ spring camp, and taking part in baseball activities.  There isn’t a set timeline for Chisholm’s return, but the team is hopeful Chisholm can be activated for the start of the second half.  With Chisholm out, Jeff McNeil becomes the NL’s new starter at the keystone, while Cronenworth will take over the backup infield role.

Giants lefty Carlos Rodon is also battling injury, opening the door for Anderson to receive the first All-Star nod of his seven-year career.  Rodon has both a blister and a split nail on the middle finger of his throwing hand, and told  Henry Schulman and other reporters that he is skipping the ASG in order to give the injury time to properly heal.  There isn’t yet any indication that Rodon might require a visit to the injured list, and since Rodon last pitched on Thursday, he’ll receive at least a full week off between starts.

Riley was perhaps the most prominent omission from the original All-Star roster, given how the Braves slugger has posted some huge numbers over the first half.  However, as it often the case with “snubs,” the situation sorted itself out once other players started to drop out.  Riley will be taking the place of Nolan Arenado, as the Cardinals third baseman will use the break to rest a lingering back problem.

Chris Sale Suffers Broken Finger

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4:46pm: Sale told reporters (including Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe) that he believes he’ll miss 4-6 weeks, but he will pitch again in 2022.  A more specific timeline could be known once Sale visits a specialist, either later today or tomorrow.

2:20pm: The Red Sox announced to reporters, including Chris Cotillo of MassLive, that Sale’s pinky finger is broken. “Left fifth finger fracture” is the official diagnosis. There’s still no word on his expected absence.

1:45pm: Red Sox starter Chris Sale departed today’s game after recording just two outs, as an Aaron Hicks comebacker hit his hand and appeared to injure it. While the extent of the injury won’t be known until testing is done, the television broadcast showed obvious damage to the hand, with Sale immediately leaving the field without hesitation. (Twitter video link from Starting 9.)

Making this extra frustrating for the Red Sox, this was just Sale’s second start of the year. He missed the first few months of the season due to a stress fracture in his rib cage. After months of rehab and getting himself back into game shape, he’s now had the incredible bad luck to be struck on his pitching hand and suffering yet another injury. The lefty also underwent Tommy John surgery in 2020, missing all of that season and most of the 2021 campaign. All told, he’s thrown less than 50 innings since the end of the 2019 campaign.

The timing of the injury is troublesome for the Red Sox, who have dealt with a number of rotation woes recently. Nathan Eovaldi just returned after missing over a month, but Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, Connor Seabold and Josh Winckowski have all landed on the IL in the past few weeks. The All-Star break begins tomorrow, giving the club a few days to figure things out. But if Sale has to miss time, they will be down to a rotation of Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta and Kutter Crawford.

After the break, the Red Sox are playing 17 straight days, meaning they will certainly need reinforcements. Hill and Wacha are making progress but won’t be ready after the break, reports Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Garrett Whitlock has made nine starts for the club this year but has been working out of the bullpen since returning from his own IL stint. The club could consider moving him back to the rotation, though he would need to build back up for such an assignment. Prospect Brayan Bello made two starts at the big league level recently but was rocked to a 10.13 ERA and optioned back down to the minors. There’s also James Paxton, who was signed in the offseason with the knowledge that he wouldn’t be available until the second half of the season due to undergoing Tommy John surgery last year. However, he’s yet to begin a rehab assignment and is likely still a few weeks away from returning.

Of course, Boston could also look to outside additions, as the August 2 trade deadline is now just over two weeks away. Despite the mounting injuries to the rotation, the club began today’s game 48-44, just one game behind the Blue Jays for playoff spot. (Though the Jays have since beat the Royals, moving a half game further ahead.) Some of the top starters thought to be available on the market are Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle and Frankie Montas, among others. The Red Sox will have plenty of competition in those markets, however, as most contenders are looking for extra arms at this time of year.

IL Transactions: Matz, VerHagen, Lynch, De Jong

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The Cardinals activated left-hander Steven Matz off the 15-day injured list today, as Matz was slated to start the Cardinals’ game against the Reds before the contest was rained out.  Matz will now have to wait until after the All-Star break to make his official return to the field, as he has been sidelined since May 22 due to a shoulder impingement.  With the Cards in need of rotation help, a healthy and effective Matz would be a major boost to the team, as both sides must hope that this two-month absence can essentially be a restart on Matz’s season.  After signing a four-year, $44MM free agent deal with St. Louis in November, Matz stumbled out of the gate with a 6.03 ERA over his first 37 1/3 innings in a Cardinals uniform.

To create room on the active roster, St. Louis placed right-hander Drew VerHagen on the 15-day IL with a right hip impingement.  A similar injury sent VerHagen to the injured list for a little over three weeks earlier this season, and the righty was just activated from another IL stint (due to shoulder problems) earlier this week.  With all of these health issues, it perhaps isn’t surprising that VerHagen has only a 6.65 ERA over 21 2/3 innings, with walks and home runs being particular issues for the 31-year-old.  VerHagen is another offseason signing for the Cards, joining the team on a two-year, $5.5MM deal after spending the previous two seasons pitching in Japan.

More comings and goings off the injured list from around the league…

  • The Royals placed left-hander Daniel Lynch on the 15-day IL, as Lynch is again dealing with a blister problem.  Lynch had already been sent to the IL with that same blister issue on June 24, and he was activated earlier this week and made two abbreviated starts before returning to the sidelines.  It has been a difficult season for Lynch, who has a 5.05 ERA and a wealth of troubling Statcast metrics over 15 starts and 71 1/3 innings.  Lynch’s IL placement was part of a busy day of roster moves for the Royals, who sent 10 players (Angel Zerpa, Nick Pratto, Gabe Speier, Collin Snider, Brewer Hicklen, Michael Massey, Freddy Fermin, Nate Eaton to Triple-A; Sebastian Rivero and Maikel Garcia to Double-A) to the minors in the aftermath of their series in Toronto.  This clears the way for the return of 10 Kansas City players, who were placed on the restricted list due to their non-vaccinated status.
  • The Pirates placed righty Chase De Jong on the 15-day IL due to tendinitis in his left knee, and Bryse Wilson (today’s starting pitcher against the Rockies) was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.  Another knee injury is perhaps a red flag for De Jong, who underwent surgery on that same left knee last year.  The surgery cut short De Jong’s first season in Pittsburgh, but after signing another minor league deal with the Bucs this past winter, De Jong has rebounded to post a 2.06 ERA over 35 relief innings in 2022.

Nationals To Entertain Trade Offers For Juan Soto After He Rejects $440MM Offer

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TODAY: The Nationals aren’t planning to increase their offer beyond $440MM, The Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty writes.  Soto is reportedly looking for a deal that is at least a decade long, gives him the most guaranteed money in baseball history, and gives him an AAV at least close to the highest average annual values.  In a Twitter thread, Dougherty suggests that the Nats could come closer to Soto’s demands by offering $440MM over 12 or 13 years rather than 15, though that scenario might not be palatable to the Nationals for luxury tax reasons.

JULY 16, 3:04PM: While the Nationals’ offer didn’t have any deferred money, the $440MM was “heavily backloaded” into the offer’s last six seasons, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports.  The offer’s backloaded nature played a part in Soto’s decision, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post, and other factors included the relatively low AAV and the uncertainty surrounding the Nats’ ownership situation.

11:21AM: In a somewhat shocking development, the Washington Nationals will now listen to trade offers for transcendent superstar Juan Soto, per the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Soto reportedly rejected a $440MM extension offer, prompting the change of heart on the Nationals’ part.

The Nationals have long held the position that they would not be open to trading Soto, their 23-year-old superstar, who is already firmly listed among the best hitters in baseball. The Nationals have some time to make a decision, as Soto is under team control for another two seasons beyond this one. As of right now, however, the team is among the worst in baseball, and their farm system continues to be understocked.

All that said, the Nats have made consistent efforts to come to a contract extension with Soto’s agent Scott Boras, with no success. According to Rosenthal, the latest such offer – the third offer from the Nationals’ side – was for 15 years and a total of $440MM. Perhaps more shocking than the number itself is that the Nats did not include any deferred money in the deal. The Nationals are well known for deferring money in most of their long-term deals. That they were willing to avoid that practice shows some bend on the Nats’ part, but it was not enough to consummate a deal.

If those numbers are correct, the Nats’ offer would have given Soto an AAV of $29.33MM over that 15-year span, which falls a little shy of some of the game’s top contracts. While that’s nothing to scoff at, it would not be a record-setting number. The total dollar amount would, however, top MLB’s largest contracts.

The deal would have carried Soto through to his 38th birthday, effectively locking him in as a National for the entirety of his career. It’s certainly a large chunk of money to offer, but Soto might not be so ready to put a cap on his career earnings – even such a lofty one. Soto is currently making $17.1MM this season, with another two arbitration raises yet to come in his final two seasons. If he stays healthy, he’ll easily make more than $29.33MM AAV by his final season before free agency.

With their latest offer rejected, the Nats will now spend the next couple of weeks listening to trade offers for Soto ahead of the August 2nd trade deadline. Certainly, given the team control remaining, the Nationals would have to be floored by an offer in order to move him. The likelihood of a deal at this juncture still feels slim. An offseason deal is more likely. Still, interested parties now have a couple of weeks to begin making headway.

It’s difficult to fathom what exactly it would take to pry Soto loose from the Nationals. No matter what the return package, it’s sure to seem light in the eyes of local fans. Soto is the lone superstar and fan attraction at this point. The club has seen the departure of organizational mainstays like Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, and Ryan Zimmerman in the past calendar year alone. Without Soto, the club would be starting from scratch, especially given the state of the farm system. A player of Soto’s stature does not come along frequently, and it’s unlikely they could recoup anywhere close to equal value for Soto.

For the Nationals to deal him, they have to really believe they have no chance of signing him to a long-term contract extension. Perhaps this latest rejection makes that point for them. From the outside, there are certainly ways in which the Nats could improve their offer, namely with a larger AAV, which does seem to be something that matters to players. They have, as is often pointed out, crossed this bridge with Boras before, both in signing Stephen Strasburg to a long-term deal, and in not coming to terms with players like Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon.

Complicating matters on both sides is the uncertain future of the Nats’ ownership situation. If the Lerners do, in fact, plan on selling the club, keeping Soto on the roster would seem to be positive, almost necessary. A new ownership group would likely rather have Soto than whatever handful of prospects would come back in a deal. And yet, Soto might be disinclined to commit to a new ownership group. How much can the team be sold for if part of the deal necessitates giving Soto more than $440MM? And yet, the franchise has to be far less attractive to potential buyers without Soto as a marketing centerpiece. How intent the Lerners are in selling the Nats might be the crux of this entire situation.

In many ways, it’s reasonable to expect an end to this saga – one way or the other – by the beginning of next season. Unlike a situation like, say, the Cubs had with Kris Bryant, the Nats have no hope of contending at this present moment, which might make them less inclined to suffer the constant trade rumors. When the Cubs held onto Bryant through years of rumors, they were, at least, competitive year-by-year, giving them cause to hold onto Bryant, even if it meant seeing him walk as a free agent. For the Nationals, Soto’s future is the only story in DC until it gets resolved.

For now, it’s going to be a tense couple of weeks for Nats’ fans as they await the trade deadline. Even if Soto stays beyond August 2nd, the trade rumors are going to continue to swirl. The Nationals have to be wondering if Soto’s uncertain future is a tenable situation. If they can’t find the right deal, however, they need to be willing to wait.

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