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Alex Bregman

Red Sox Notes: Anthony, Yoshida, Bregman

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There has been a lot of extension speculation surrounding Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony but he tells Rob Bradford of WEEI that no real progress has been made on that front. “There hasn’t even been a single peep about it since I’ve been here,” Anthony said. He also said “both sides have handled that well in terms of just letting me go and play.”

The Sox came into the year with three top prospects in Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell. There were extension rumors surrounding all three in the winter and Campbell eventually did put pen to paper, signing an eight-year, $60MM deal in early April.

A deal for Anthony might be a bit trickier than one for Campbell, as he is two years younger and was more of a highly-touted prospect on his way up the ladder. Anthony is currently only 21 years old. If he stays up in the minor leagues for good, he’s slated for free agency after the 2031 season, which will be his age-27 campaign.

That gives him a tremendous amount of earning power down the line, if he is able to develop as hoped. He has only hit .219/.345/.356 so far, but in a tiny sample of 87 plate appearances. If the Sox have faith in his ability to hit his ceiling, they will be motivated to lock him down as soon as possible. Otherwise, his earning power will only increase as he gets more established and closer to arbitration and free agency.

Though from the perspective of Anthony and his representatives, they surely see a path to a healthy free agent market a few years down the line and would need strong motivation to give up on that. For now, based on Anthony’s comments, it seems he’s primarily focused on his gameplay. Perhaps there will be more of a focus on contract talks in the offseason.

Elsewhere in news surrounding the Red Sox, Masataka Yoshida started a rehab assignment yesterday as he looks to finally return from ongoing shoulder problems. Part of that rehab appears to be some first base drills, though manager Álex Cora downplayed the significance of that work.

Per Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive, Cora framed the work as mostly Yoshida preparing for an emergency. “I don’t anticipate him starting at first base,” said Cora, “but if something crazy happens, at least he can catch throws and knock down a ground ball.”

Yoshida has only played the outfield in his career, both in North America and in Japan. However, the Sox currently have a fairly crowded mix on the grass consisting of Anthony, Ceddanne Rafaela, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Rob Refsnyder. Meanwhile, the club has been trying all sorts of things at first base since the Triston Casas injury. Rafael Devers didn’t want to play there, which led to his trade to San Francisco. Utility players Abraham Toro and Romy González have been splitting the time at first lately.

That gives some logic to having Yoshida get some work there. It also aligns with his injury, as he has largely been able to hit this year, but throwing has been the problem. With Devers having been in the designated hitter spot for much of the year, the inability to throw essentially made Yoshida unrosterable. Now that Devers is gone and Yoshida is getting healthy, he’s not quite as blocked from playing time as before, but adding first base to his repertoire still makes sense.

Speaking of roster shuffling, third baseman Alex Bregman could be back from the injured list soon. Per Chris Cotillo of MassLive, Cora hopes Bregman can return in the club’s homestand prior to the All-Star break, which goes from this Monday to next Sunday. Mayer has largely been covering that spot recently, so he could get moved to second base when Bregman returns. Campbell has been optioned to the minors, leaving David Hamilton at the keystone most nights. Hamilton is hitting just .174/.215/.278 this year, so he should get bumped to the bench or the minors.

Bregman was having a great season before a quad strain sent him to the IL, having hit .299/.385/.553 for a wRC+ of 158. That made him very likely to trigger his opt-out at the end of this season and return to free agency. If he can pick up where he left off, he would provide a big boost to the Boston lineup and also get back on track for triggering that opt out.

His contract situation has led to recent speculation in two different directions. With his looming potential return to free agency, there has been a bit of smoke on the trade front, while it also seems possible that the Sox could use some of the money saved in the Devers trade to lock up Bregman for the long term. They are currently 44-45 and 2.5 games back of a playoff spot.

Photo courtesy of Joe Nicholson, Imagn Images

Latest On Mariners’ Deadline Approach

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The Mariners are reportedly seeking corner infield and bullpen help as the deadline approaches, and MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer reported recently that ownership has signaled it will approve a payroll increase to facilitate such transactions. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times hears similarly, writing that Mariners ownership will authorize increased spending for the front office to add to the roster while ticking through some potential options.

Both Ryan O’Hearn of the Orioles and Josh Naylor of the D-backs are viewed as likely trade candidates over the next month. Both would fit the Mariners nicely at first base, allowing Luke Raley to spend more time in the outfield, where he’s more comfortable than at first base. However, early asking prices from both Baltimore and Arizona are quite high, per Jude.

O’Hearn has repeatedly elevated his game in recent seasons and now stands as one of the most productive hitters in the American League. He’s currently sitting on a .295/.383/.471 batting line with 11 homers, 10 doubles, an 11% walk rate and just a 16.3% strikeout rate through 282 plate appearances. He had a tough month in June, but since being traded from Kansas City to Baltimore in the 2022-23 offseason, O’Hearn has proven himself to be a credible middle-of-the-order bat. He hasn’t quite sustained last year’s enormous gains in contact rate, but he’s chasing off the plate at a career-low rate, walking more and showing a bit more power than he did in 2024.

Naylor offers a similar, albeit not identical skill set. Last year’s career-high 31 homers are far more than O’Hearn has ever produced, though some of that is a simple function of playing time. Naylor logged 633 plate appearances in 2024 (a career-high); O’Hearn has never topped last year’s 494 trips to the plate. Both have above-average power with far better contact skills than the prototypical first baseman/designated hitter. Naylor has fanned only 13% of the time he’s come to the plate in 2025. His 8% walk rate is a bit below average, but his overall .304/.359/.474 slash is terrific.

Looking strictly at 2025, O’Hearn has been a bit more impactful in the batter’s box, but the pair’s last three seasons are virtually identical. Naylor has slashed .279/.340/.472 in 1452 plate appearances, while O’Hearn has turned in a .280/.342/.455 line in 1144 plate appearances. They’ve both walked in 8% of their plate appearances. On a rate basis, Naylor has shown a slight bit more power (.193 ISO to .175), but the difference is minimal. The two are compensated similarly, but Naylor is paid a bit more: $10.9MM to O’Hearn’s $8MM. Both are free agents at season’s end.

In a more interesting but also far less plausible scenario, Jude further reports that the Mariners would have interest if the Red Sox were to make Alex Bregman available. That perhaps speaks to ownership’s willingness to add to the payroll, although presumably, the M’s would be looking for the Sox to at least help with some of Bregman’s heavily deferred $40MM annual salary.

The idea of a Bregman trade is interesting in theory but hard to envision in practice. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are rarely traded, and the massive scale of Bregman’s annual salary only further muddies his candidacy.

In broad terms, it’s difficult for two clubs to line up on prospect compensation for a player with multiple years remaining on his contract but the ability to opt back into free agency at season’s end. The acquiring team generally views that player as a rental — typically an expensive one, salary-wise. In a best-case scenario, that player will produce for two-plus months and then head back to free agency. In a worst-case scenario, he’ll suffer a major injury or see his performance tank, only to forgo the opt-out chance and stick the new club with an unwanted additional year (or years) of the contract in question. The acquiring team will understandably try to price that downside into the prospect return, making it difficult for the two parties to align.

On top of the difficulties surrounding Bregman’s salary and opt-out provision, he’s also been away from the field for more than a month. The Red Sox placed Bregman on the 10-day injured list with a strained quadriceps back on May 24. It was clear at the time that he was facing a lengthy absence. Bregman is inching closer to a return and could be back prior to the All-Star break, but an injury absence of nearly two months and a return only about two weeks prior to the trade deadline creates some risk (to say nothing of the potential for Bregman to struggle upon his return, which would only raise further questions).

Prior to his injury, Bregman was enjoying one of the finest starts of his entire career. He’s played 51 games and taken 226 plate appearances, turning in a stout .299/.385/.553 batting line with 11 homers and 17 doubles. His 9.7% walk rate is up three percentage points over last year’s career-low mark. Bregman was also striking out at a career-high 18.6% rate, but that’s still several points shy of league-average and the uptick in swing-and-miss was accompanied by major gains in batted-ball quality. The 31-year-old’s 92 mph average exit velocity is vastly higher than the 88.8 mph career mark he carried into the season. Ditto his 10.3% barrel rate (career 5.7% prior to ’25) and 48.1% hard-hit rate (career 37.7% prior to ’25).

Bregman is signed through 2027 on a three-year, $120MM contract. Deferrals bring the present-day annual value down closer to a reported $29MM. He can opt out of the contract both at the end of the current season and after the 2026 season but has spoken openly about his interest in signing a long-term extension that’d keep him in Boston more permanently. That’s not exactly a surprise for a player who entered last offseason seeking a long-term deal worth $200MM or more and wound up pivoting to an opt-out-laden, short-term deal with a lofty AAV once that long-term pact didn’t materialize, however.

Ultimately, while it’s fun to dream on the notion of a major trade involving someone of Bregman’s caliber, the specifics surrounding his contract and health — to say nothing of Boston’s uncertain buy/sell status four weeks out from the deadline — render it more a theoretical discussion than a genuine possibility at this stage.

The Mariners entered the 2025 season with a $146MM payroll — third-highest in franchise history. They’ve already added to that ledger with a surprising May claim of outfielder Leody Taveras, which didn’t pan out as hoped. That claim already showed a willingness from ownership to spend a bit more, however, and it bears mentioning that M’s ownership also green-lit payroll hikes for both the 2024 acquisition of Randy Arozarena and the 2022 acquisition of Luis Castillo (as well as his subsequent extension).

Alex Bregman Open To Extension Talks With Red Sox

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Alex Bregman has an upcoming opt-out in his contract but he is willing to talk with the Red Sox about sticking around longer. “I always tell the team — and Alex directs me to tell them — we’re always open to any conversation,” Bregman’s agent Scott Boras said to Tim Healey of The Boston Globe. “Any player who plays well somewhere, it’s something that’s important for the team and important for the player. It’s an additive.” Boras also mentioned that Bregman and his family have been happy with their time being in Boston so far.

It’s not especially surprising that Bregman and Boras would be open to a long-term offer. While Boras clients have a reputation for being averse to extensions, that’s normally for early-career players who don’t want to give up future earning power by delaying their path to free agency. In Bregman’s case, he already reached free agency after last season. He didn’t quite get the long-term deal he was looking for, so he pivoted to a short-term pact. He and the Sox signed a three-year deal with a $120MM guaranteed, though with notable deferrals that knocked the net present value closer to $90MM, with opt-out chances after each season.

The goal in signing a contract of that nature is to bank some high earnings on an annual basis while still maintaining the ability to get a larger guarantee down the line. The Bregman situation has a lot of parallels with that of Matt Chapman, another Boras client. Chapman also found the offers lacking in his first foray to free agency, settling for a three-year, $54MM deal with the Giants. His first season in San Francisco was going well enough that they didn’t want him to return to free agency, so they signed him to a six-year, $151MM deal in September of last year.

Bregman would presumably be happy with a similar sequence of events playing out for him and he has mostly done his part so far. By all accounts, he has been a positive force in taking on a clubhouse leader role on a roster with plenty of young players. He has also hit .299 /.385/.553 for a 158 wRC+ this season, his best offensive showing in years. He’s been out of action for about a month due to a quad strain but should be back in the not-too-distant future. Manager Álex Cora recently said Bregman would likely stay on the IL through the All-Star break, per Healey.

Given his contributions on and off the field, the Sox are naturally happy with Bregman as well. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently discussed the matter with The Greg Hill Show on WEEI. Breslow declined to get into specifics on the contract negotiations but heaped praise on Bregman and expressed an openness to having future talks. “What I’m very comfortable saying is Alex has been everything we could have asked for both on the field,” Breslow said, “but also in the clubhouse from a leadership standpoint. Not just in the way he’s helped younger players and our staff but in the ways that he’s helped me and many of us in the front office. And so right now while we’re focused on doing everything we can to get him back on the field as quickly as possible, when the right time comes to have those conversations, very, very confident that we will.”

When Bregman first signed, it was fair to wonder if it was going to be a short-term arrangement. The Sox had Rafael Devers at third, signed for years to come. Bregman could have played second base for a year, opted out and signed elsewhere.

Much has changed since then, of course. The Sox moved Devers to a designated hitter role and put Bregman at his natural third base position. That appeared to sour the relationship between Devers and the club, which eventually led to him getting flipped to the Giants earlier this month.

That trade blew a big hole in the Boston lineup but it also freed up a lot of spending capacity, with Devers still owed about $250MM at the time of the swap. The Sox also took on Jordan Hicks and the roughly $30MM remaining in his deal but they nonetheless opened up a lot of money that was previously tied to Devers.

In the wake of that swap, the baseball world immediately began speculating if the Sox pivot to locking up Bregman with that money. That seems to be a distinct possibility, though the two sides will have to agree on a price point.

In the winter, Bregman apparently got long-term offers of $156MM from the Astros and around $170MM from the Tigers, though the latter would have come with some amount of deferred money. Bregman was reportedly looking for something around $200MM but couldn’t quite get there, which is why he accepted the short-term deal with the Sox.

Getting offers in that range again may be enough to get it done. If Bregman were offered something around $160MM on a new deal, he and Boras could argue that he hit the $200MM target, when factoring in this year’s $40MM salary. That doesn’t account for the deferrals lowering the net present value of that salary, but that’s generally the point of deferrals, to mask the true value of a contract.

Perhaps the two sides will start talking again as Bregman’s potential opt-out looms. If the Sox want Bregman locked up for the long term, they might want to get it done while he’s under contract, like the Giants did with Chapman. The Sox could always re-sign him in the offseason but then they would face competition from other clubs. In the meantime, Bregman will focus on getting healthy for a second half push.

Marcelo Mayer has largely been covering third base in Bregman’s absence but he has also started dabbling at second base, as Nate Eaton has played third, with Kristian Campbell having been recently optioned to the minors. Campbell has been playing some first base on the farm and could be a candidate to slide over there if Bregman is the long-term third baseman, though Triston Casas will be back from his injury next year. The DH spot is now open with the Devers trade though the Sox also have a crowded bunch of outfielders spilling into that spot.

Photo courtesy of Eric Canha, Imagn Images

Poll: Who’s The Best Pure Hitter In This Winter’s Free Agent Class?

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In the context of free agency, MLB players are typically graded on their overall long-term value and earning power. MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list is typically topped by all-around star talents who are in the midst of their prime years. Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge are outliers even among top-of-the-line free agents, but previous years saw well-rounded hitters still in their prime with substantial defensive value like Carlos Correa, J.T. Realmuto, and Anthony Rendon viewed as the top hitters available in free agency.

With all respect to Realmuto, however, even his best years haven’t seen him offer the kind of offensive firepower that someone like Nelson Cruz could offer within that very same free agent class. If a team was looking specifically for a impactful addition to the lineup, they might not necessarily be drawn to the top free agent position player. This winter, there’s little question about who the top free agent position player will be in terms of overall value and earning power. With that said, there’s a number of extremely impactful hitters who figure to be available. Who’s the best choice to transform a lineup? A look at some of the options:

Kyle Tucker

Ever since the Blue Jays signed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a massive extension shortly after Opening Day, there’s been virtually no debate who free agency’s top overall player would be this winter. Kyle Tucker spent years as a key cog in the Astros’ dynasty, and is one of the most impressive overall talents in the game at the moment. This ranking isn’t about earning power or even overall value, but Tucker remains one of the top players in the sport even when strictly looking at offensive production. Looking at his time in Chicago this year, the star outfielder has slashed .284/.394/.515 (153 wRC+) with more walks than strikeouts, 13 homers, and 18 steals across 72 games for a first-place Cubs team this year.

That’s a phenomenal performance, but Tucker has also been remarkably consistent throughout his career. Since his first full 162-game season in 2021, Tucker’s a 146 wRC+ hitter whose strikeout rate has always been below 16%. His walk rate has never fallen below 9%, and that combination of patience and contact ability is unmatched. Among the hitters with the 30 lowest strikeout rates in the sport, Tucker walks the most. Among the hitters with the 30 highest walk rates in the sport, Tucker strikes out the least. He’s the only player within the top 30 of both categories over the past five years, and he’s combined that with the power to hit 30 homers and the speed to steal 30 bases.

Pete Alonso

After finding an extremely soft market in free agency last year, Alonso returned to the Mets on a two-year deal that affords him the opportunity to opt out after the 2025 season. That opt-out opportunity seems certain to be exercised at this point, as Alonso has taken his game to the next level for his age-30 campaign. In 69 games this year, Alonso has slashed an incredible .293/.390/.570 (169 wRC+) in 72 games. In addition to his 17 home runs so far this year, Alonso’s floating a career-high 11.0% walk rate with his lowest strikeout rate (21.1%) since 2022 while swatting an NL-best 22 doubles.

Perhaps most exciting of all is that there’s some reason to believe he’s been even better than those numbers indicate. His 20.9% barrel rate is nothing short of absurd, his xwOBA is actually more than twenty points higher than his wOBA, and that .434 xwOBA is behind only Judge and Ohtani in the majors. He remains a limited defender who doesn’t excel at first base and will be returning to free agency at age 31, but none of that stops him from being one of the most dangerous hitters in the sport who would improve virtually any lineup.

Alex Bregman

Another star player who wound up signing a short-term deal this winter, Bregman took off early with the Red Sox and slashed .299/.385/.553 (158 wRC+) across 51 games while playing quality defense at third base. It was a hot enough start to raise the question of whether he’d consider opting out of the two years and $80MM remaining on his deal with the Red Sox this winter. That’s certainly still possible, but a “significant” quad strain has now sidelined him for the foreseeable future. A lengthy injury layoff could make Bregman hesitate to leave that much guaranteed money on the table, and this weekend’s blockbuster trade that sent Rafael Devers from the Red Sox to the Giants could leave Boston brass eager to keep their other star third baseman in the fold long-term.

Setting aside the possibility Bregman doesn’t even end up returning to the open market, it’s also worth noting that his underlying numbers aren’t as strong as his actual production so far this year. Bregman’s .331 BABIP this season is nearly fifty points higher than his career mark and with his strikeout rate the highest it’s been since 2018, it’s hard to imagine him maintaining his .385 on-base percentage long-term. Even so, Bregman’s looked rejuvenated in Boston after a down year during his final season in Houston. If he manages to return from injury looking strong, he’ll have put himself firmly in the conversation.

Kyle Schwarber

It’s been quite a while since Schwarber was available to teams in free agency, as what was at the time a career year in 2022 with the Nationals and Red Sox allowed him to land a four-year deal with the Phillies. Weak defense has pushed him into a full-time DH role over the years, but Schwarber’s bat has been everything Philadelphia could’ve hoped for when signing him. He’s slashed .224/.349/.494 (131 wRC+) with 153 homers in 538 games as a Phillie while walking at a 15.4% clip. That’s excellent offensive production, but what makes Schwarber truly stand out is the phenomenal walk year he’s in the midst of.

Through 71 games, 2025 has been the best season of Schwarber’s career by virtually every metric. He’s slashing .247/.379/.544 with a wRC+ of 155, his 16.2% walk rate is the fourth-highest figure in the majors this year, and he’s even cut his typically-high strikeout rate to a more manageable 26.1%, his lowest since 2019. He’s swatted 22 homers in 314 plate appearances as well, with a .297 ISO that trails only Judge, Ohtani, Cal Raleigh, and Corbin Carroll among qualified hitters this season. While he’ll be 33 next year, expected stats give no indication he’s at risk of dropping off, as his xwOBA has been almost 30 points higher than his actual wOBA this year.

Other Candidates

While Tucker, Alonso, Bregman, and Schwarber stand as the most likely candidates to enter free agency as the best hitter available, they’re far from the only possibilities. Paul Goldschmidt is a future Hall of Famer in the midst of a resurgent season at the plate, but he’ll be 38 next year and at risk of the sort of abrupt decline many hitters in their mid-to-late 30s face. Marcell Ozuna’s 145 wRC+ since the start of the 2023 season is the 11th-highest figure in all of baseball, but he’ll turn 35 this November and his power output has already dropped off considerably this year. Ryan O’Hearn has put up brilliant numbers for the Orioles this year with a 152 wRC+, but hasn’t shown an ability to hit lefties to this point in his career and lacks the track record of many of these other players.

Who do MLBTR readers think will be the most impactful pure hitter available in free agency this winter? Have your say in the poll below:

Red Sox Promote Marcelo Mayer; Alex Bregman To IL With “Significant” Quad Strain

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4:27pm: The Red Sox have officially announced the selection of Mayer’s contract. Bregman was placed on the 10-day injured list with a right quad strain to create room for Mayer on the active roster, while Casas was placed on the 60-day injured list to create a 40-man roster spot. Cora told reporters (including Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic) this afternoon that Bregman’s injury is “significant” and compared it to a quad strain Bregman suffered in 2021 that ultimately caused him to miss around two months.

1:39pm: The Red Sox are promoting top infield prospect Marcelo Mayer, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Katie Morrison-O’Day of MassLive observed that Mayer was being congratulated by his teammates in the clubhouse at Triple-A Worcester. Her MassLive colleague Christopher Smith first reported that the former first-round pick is headed to Fenway Park.

The promotion comes as Alex Bregman navigates a right quad injury that seems likely to send him to the 10-day injured list. Bregman came out of yesterday’s blowout win over the Orioles in the fifth inning. He came up a bit gimpy after making an aggressive turn around the first base bag on a single off the Green Monster. He immediately exited in favor of Abraham Toro. The team is still awaiting MRI results from this morning. Manager Alex Cora told reporters (including WEEI’s Rob Bradford) that the star third baseman woke up with more soreness than he’d expected today.

Boston did not place Bregman on the IL before the first game of today’s doubleheader. There’s a good chance that’ll come between games tonight. They’ll also need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster for Mayer, but that can easily be achieved by transferring Triston Casas to the 60-day injured list.

Cora has already shot down the idea that Rafael Devers could see any third base time in Bregman’s absence. He’ll remain a full-time designated hitter. That means the 22-year-old Mayer should be in the lineup on a near everyday basis at third base. He obviously can’t be expected to replace the production they’re losing with Bregman’s absence. The two-time All-Star takes a .299/.385/.553 batting line to his likely stint on the injured list.

Mayer has very little experience at the hot corner. He started one game there in Double-A in each of the 2023 and ’24 seasons. He’s added four appearances in Triple-A this year. Mayer has taken the vast majority of his professional reps as a shortstop. He’d moved more frequently to second base over the past few days. That wasn’t because of any question about whether he can hold up at shortstop. It was instead in preparation for what seemed to be his best path to an MLB debut — playing second base with Kristian Campbell preparing to slide to first base after the Casas injury.

While there may be some growing pains given Mayer’s lack of experience at the hot corner, it’s common for shortstops to move to other infield positions. He has the plus arm for the position and is generally regarded as a sure-handed infielder. At 6’3″, Mayer is on the bigger side for a shortstop. His range, while adequate, has never been the strongest point of his defensive profile. That’s less of a concern at third base.

Mayer certainly brings a higher offensive ceiling than the utility options (Toro and David Hamilton) who may otherwise have replaced Bregman. The fourth overall pick in 2021, Mayer has been a feature on top prospect lists throughout his professional career. The left-handed hitter has moved a little more slowly than anticipated, largely because of injuries to his left shoulder and right wrist that affected him in 2022-23. Scouts have remained enamored with his power, polished strike zone discipline and overall natural athleticism.

That has been on display over the past two minor league seasons. Mayer hit .307/.370/.480 in Double-A a year ago. He’s out to a solid .271/.347/.471 slash with nine homers in 43 games during his first Triple-A action. He’s drawing walks at a strong 10.4% clip compared to a 19.7% strikeout rate that matches last year’s mark for the lowest of his career.

While the Bregman injury is the immediate impetus for Mayer’s promotion, there should be opportunity to stick past Bregman’s return if he performs well. The Sox may feel comfortable using Campbell at first base by that point, potentially opening second base. Mayer could also eventually supplant Trevor Story as the starting shortstop. Story began the season with a power barrage but has done almost nothing offensively for the better part of six weeks. He’s hitting .159 with one home run and 38 strikeouts in 122 plate appearances since his two-homer game on April 18.

Mayer will not reach a full year of service time unless he triggers the Prospect Promotion Inventive by finishing in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting. The Sox would not receive an extra draft choice under the PPI because they did not carry Mayer on the big league roster for at least 172 days. He would be on track to qualify for early arbitration as a Super Two player during the 2027-28 offseason if he’s in big leagues for good, though future optional assignments could certainly change that timeline.

Photo courtesy of Imagn Images.

Michael Fulmer Elects Free Agency

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TODAY: Fulmer cleared waivers and was outrighted off Boston’s 40-man roster, but MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith writes that Fulmer has chosen to become a free agent rather than accept the outright assignment.

APRIL 18: The Red Sox announced that they have designated right-hander Michael Fulmer for assignment. That opens a roster spot for righty Hunter Dobbins, who has been recalled to the big league club. The Sox also reinstated third baseman Alex Bregman from the paternity list and optioned infielder/outfielder Nick Sogard.

Fulmer, 32, was just selected to Boston’s roster a few days ago. On Monday, starter Tanner Houck was obliterated by the Rays, allowing 11 earned in in 2 1/3 innings. Fulmer came in and tossed 2 2/3, allowing three earned runs on four hits and two walks while striking out two. He hasn’t pitched since then but the Sox needed to make room for Dobbins, who is making a spot start tonight, which has bumped Fulmer off the roster.

It may end up being a pretty unceremonious end to a fairly long pairing between the Sox and Fulmer. He underwent UCL revision surgery late in October of 2023 and was going to miss the entire 2024 season. He then signed a two-year minor league deal with the Red Sox, to cover his recovery and potential return in 2025.

The Red Sox stretched him out as a starter this year, an interesting choice as he had been working in relief prior to signing with them. He had a 0.79 ERA in the spring and then a 3.09 ERA in three minor league outings before coming to the big leagues for his aforementioned mop-up outing on Monday.

It’s a pretty small sample and tough to draw many conclusions from it. Now that he’s been sent into DFA limbo, the Sox will have a week to either trade him or pass him through waivers. The waiver process takes 48 hours so any trade talks would have to come together in the next five days.

Prior to his lengthy layoff, Fulmer had some interesting career highlights. He won American League Rookie of the Year in 2016, tossing 159 innings for the Tigers with a 3.06 ERA. His results dipped a bit in the following years and then he missed 2019 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He returned and found some success in a move to the bullpen, with a 2.97 ERA in 2021.  But that ERA jumped to 3.39 in 2022 and 4.42 the year after, before he required another trip to the surgeon’s table.

Perhaps Fulmer will find some interest based on that track record. If he clears waivers, he has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency.

Photo courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck, Imagn Images

Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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The increasing popularity of opt-outs/player options as a means to close the gap in free agent signings and extensions has changed the face of free agency entirely. Not long ago, opt-outs were perks reserved for the game’s truly elite stars — a benefit to help differentiate nine-figure offers and secure the game’s top stars.

In 2025, they’re downright commonplace. Opt-out laden short-term deals have become a common alternative to the more conventional one-year pillow contract that a player in search of a rebound campaign might pursue. They’ll also provide a soft landing for a veteran whose market didn’t materialize as expected, even coming off a productive season. Some teams simply use them as a means of sweetening the pot even when negotiating with mid- and lower-tier free agents. The Royals gave opt-outs/player options to both Chris Stratton and Hunter Renfroe two offseasons ago. The Reds did the same with Emilio Pagan and Nick Martinez. Tucker Barnhart, Trey Mancini and Ross Stripling are just a few of the other recent examples of solid but non-star veterans to land such clauses in their free agent contracts.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from club options that have been widely accepted as commonplace for decades. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin, one favoring the team and the other favoring the player.

There are 16 players around the league this year who’ll have the right to opt into free agency at season’s end, depending on their performance. (Conversely, there are 27 players with club options.) We’ll periodically take a look at this group over the course of the season, as their performances will have a major impact on the 2025-26 market. For more context, you can check out our full list of 2025-26 MLB free agents as well as the first installment of our recent 2025-26 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, wherein we rank the top 10 free agents in terms of earning power. Darragh McDonald, Anthony Franco and I recently discussed the decision process behind those rankings in the latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast.

Onto this year’s group!

Pete Alonso, 1B, Mets | One year, $24MM remaining

Alonso looked like a good bet to opt out from the moment he agreed to terms on his front-loaded two-year, $54MM contract. That he’s been one of the best hitters on the planet in the season’s first three weeks only improves that likelihood. The 30-year-old slugger is slashing a comical .365/.474/.730 with five homers, eight doubles and more walks (12) than strikeouts (10) through his first 78 turns at the plate. Alonso is chasing pitches off the plate at a career-low 19.1% rate and is sporting the best contact rate of his career at 82.8%. He’s doing all of that with career-best marks in average exit velocity (96.3 mph), barrel rate (24.1%) and hard-hit rate (61.1%). Alonso has been an absolute monster, and the fact that he can’t receive a qualifying offer — players can only receive one in their career, and he rejected one last November — is a cherry on top of his dominant output.

Cody Bellinger, OF/1B, Yankees | One year, $25MM remaining (Bellinger receives $5MM buyout if he opts out)

Bellinger posted All-Star numbers with the 2023 Cubs, signed back for three years with a pair of opt-outs and hit well in 2024 — just not to his 2023 standard. Traded to the Yankees this past offseason, many thought he was primed for a rebound because of the favorable dimensions at Yankee Stadium. It hasn’t played out that way. Through his first 62 plate appearances, Bellinger looks more like the lost version of himself from 2021-22 than the strong performer we saw in ’23-’24. He’s hitting .185/.242/.296 with what would be career-worst strikeout and swinging-strike rates of 29% and 15.2%, respectively. When he’s made contact, it’s been loud (90.8 mph average exit velocity, 53.5% hard-hit rate) — and there’s still plenty of time to turn things around. It’s not the start he or the Yankees hoped for, however.

Shane Bieber, RHP, Guardians | One year, $16MM remaining (Bieber receives $4MM buyout if he opts out)

Bieber has yet to pitch this season as he rehabs from last year’s Tommy John surgery. Cleveland has yet to place him on the 60-day injured list, which could offer some optimism regarding his timetable for a return, but he’s not on a minor league rehab assignment yet. At last check, he was targeting a return around the All-Star break.

Alex Bregman, 3B, Red Sox | Two years, $80MM remaining (Bregman can opt out again after 2026)

Bregman has started his Boston tenure on a tear, hitting .321/.365/.564 with four big flies in 85 plate appearances. He’s been 62% better than average, by measure of wRC+, but there are still some of the same red flags he displayed early in the 2024 season. During his peak, Bregman was one of the sport’s toughest strikeouts and showed outstanding plate discipline. From 2018-23, he walked in 13.8% of his plate appearances against a puny 12.3% strikeout rate. Bregman’s walk rate fell off a cliff last season, and it hasn’t recovered so far in 2024. He’s drawn only four free passes (4.7%). More concerning, he’s fanned 18 times, leading to what would be a career-worst 21.2% strikeout rate. Bregman’s chase rate is down, and he’s still making elite contact within the strike zone, but he’s making contact on a career-low 56.5% of his swings on balls off the plate. If he keeps hitting like this, it probably won’t matter, but it’s something to watch as the season continues.

Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets | Two years, $37MM remaining (Diaz can opt out again after 2026)

Diaz had a nice return from a 2023 season lost to a knee injury in 2024, pitching to a 3.52 ERA with a 38.9% strikeout rate against a 9.3% walk rate. It wasn’t quite his usual level of dominance, but most relievers would happily take a 39% punchout rate in a “down” season. Things aren’t going as well in 2025. Diaz’s four-seamer is sitting at a career-low 96.4 mph, per Statcast. That’s down 1.1 mph from last year’s mark and 2.5 mph from his 99.1 mph peak in 2022. If he were still overpowering opponents, it wouldn’t matter much, but Diaz has been tagged for five runs on six hits and five walks in 6 2/3 frames. That’s a 16% walk rate, and he’s already tossed four wild pitches — more than he did in 53 2/3 innings a year ago. The caveat with everyone on this list is that we’re all of 11-12% through the season, but the early trendlines aren’t good for Diaz.

Jack Flaherty, RHP, Tigers | One year, $10MM remaining (increases to $20MM once Flaherty makes 15 starts)

Flaherty’s heater is down nearly a mile per hour, and his walk rate is up from 5.9% to 10.3% … but that’s in a span of 21 1/3 innings. He’s still getting strikeouts at a plus level (28.7%), and the bottom-line results are good: 2.53 ERA. Flaherty seems healthy, which will be a big factor for him — both in terms of boosting his stock ahead of a potential return to free agency and in boosting his 2026 salary if he winds up forgoing the opt-out opportunity. If he can deliver a third straight season of 27-plus starts and a second straight year with a plus strikeout rate and low-3.00s (or even mid-3.00s) ERA, the market will likely reward him with the long-term deal that eluded him this past winter. Flaherty doesn’t turn 30 until October. He’ll have a chance at a deal ranging from four to six years in length if he comes close to replicating his 2024 performance. One potential downside: he was traded last summer and thus ineligible to receive a qualifying offer. If the Tigers contend all season, as expected, they’ll be able to make Flaherty a QO if he opts out.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, D-backs | One year, $18MM remaining

Though he’s one of the most consistent hitters in the sport, Gurriel is out to a woeful start in 2025. His D-backs are red-hot, but their current win streak comes in spite of an anemic .145/.176/.304 start from their everyday left fielder. Gurriel has some of the best contact skills in MLB, fanning in only 17.3% of his plate appearances and making contact on just shy of 90% of his swings in the zone dating back to 2022. He’s punched out in what would be a career-low 13.5% of his plate appearances this year, but he’s staring down a .121 average on balls in play. He should be due for a course correction, but it’s worth noting that he’s hitting more fly-balls and fewer line-drives than ever, which is going to naturally suppress his BABIP a bit (although certainly not to this extent). Gurriel is owed $13MM in 2026 and has a $5MM buyout on a $14MM club option for 2027. He’d need to be confident he could top not just $18MM but probably that he’d top two years and $27MM; the hefty nature of that buyout makes him a net $9MM decision for the D-backs in 2027, which seems like a price they’ll be willing to pay.

Ha-Seong Kim, SS, Rays | One year, $16MM remaining

Kim is still finishing up the rehab from last October’s shoulder surgery. He’s expected back mid-to-late May, which would give him about four months to prove he’s back to form. A healthy Kim would’ve been a coveted free agent who could’ve commanded four or more years in free agency. A plus defender at three positions and a plus runner with enough power to pop 10 to 20 homers annually, Kim will be in high demand next offseason if the shoulder injury doesn’t prove a major drain on his offensive capabilities.

Seth Lugo, RHP, Royals | One year, $15MM remaining

Lugo’s rise from reliever to starter to Cy Young finalist has been remarkable. He’s gotten decent results in 2025, with a 3.86 ERA in his first 23 1/3 innings, but his strikeout and walk rates are nowhere near last year’s marks. After fanning 21.7% of his opponents against a pristine 5.7% mark last year, the 35-year-old Lugo currently sports respective rates of 17% and 9.6%. His velocity is below par (92.2 mph average fastball) but right in line with last year’s levels. A year and $15MM should be the floor for a healthy Lugo, even if he doesn’t repeat his brilliant 2024 season. That’s the same mark that older starters like Charlie Morton, Justin Verlander, Alex Cobb and Max Scherzer (well, $15.5MM) received this past offseason. The Royals could tag him with a qualifying offer if he opts out, which would give him a tougher call on a one-year deal that should be worth more than $21MM. That said, if Lugo comes anywhere close to last year’s results, he’d turn that down in pursuit of a multi-year deal.

A.J. Minter, LHP, Mets | One year, $11MM remaining

Minter’s 94.3 mph average fastball is a career-low, but it’s only narrowly shy of his 2024 mark (94.5 mph). It’s feasible that as he further distances himself from last year’s hip surgery, that number could tick up, too. He’s pitched 8 1/3 innings, allowed a pair of runs on five hits and a walk, and punched out a dozen hitters. That’s a whopping 38.7% strikeout rate. So far, Minter is missing more bats within the strike zone than ever before; opponents have an awful 73% contact rate on his pitches in the zone (compared to the 85% league average). Minter landed two years and $22MM with an opt-out when he was coming off hip surgery. He should be able to top a year and $11MM so long as he’s healthy and pitches to his typical levels. So far, so good.

Frankie Montas, RHP, Mets | One year, $17MM remaining

Montas has yet to pitch in 2025 after suffering a lat strain during spring training. He’s yet to begin a minor league rehab stint but, like Bieber, also has not been placed on the 60-day injured list yet. The size of the Mets’ commitment to Montas this winter registered as a bit of a surprise even when he was thought to be healthy. He’ll need a strong few months to walk away from $17MM guaranteed.

Tyler O’Neill, OF, Orioles | Two years, $33MM remaining

The biggest question with O’Neill is whether he can stay healthy enough to position himself for an opt-out. He’s mashing with a .265/.339/.490 slash and two homers through 56 plate appearances. (One of those big flies extended his ludicrous MLB record of six straight Opening Days with a long ball.) He’s also missed the past couple games due to neck discomfort. O’Neill has never played in more than 138 games in a season, and he’s only twice reached 100 games in a year. (He did play 50 of 60 games in the shortened 2020 season.) O’Neill’s 21.4% strikeout rate would be a career-low, but his actual contact rate and swinging-strike rate aren’t career-best marks. It’s hard to see him sustaining that career-low strikeout rate as a result, but O’Neill’s power is substantial enough that he can be a productive hitter even running strikeout rates approaching/exceeding 30%.

Joc Pederson, DH/OF, Rangers | One year, $18.5MM remaining (Rangers can counter opt-out by exercising 2027 club option for $18.5MM)

Signed to help the Rangers remedy their 2024 ineptitude against fastballs, Pederson has instead turned in a career-worst performance against heaters (and every other offering). It’s only 16 games, but Pederson has collected just one hit against fastballs in 2025 — a single. It’s an alarming development for a hitter who carries a lifetime .244 average and .521 slugging percentage against four-seamers. Pederson has compiled an unfathomable .060/.161/.080 slash in 57 plate appearances. He’s still making a fair bit of hard contact, but most of it is resulting in grounders. His 55.6% ground-ball rate and 2.8% (!) line-drive rates are career-worst marks. There’s no earthly way he can continue to struggle this much, but he’ll need quite the turnaround for that opt-out provision to come into play.

Wandy Peralta, LHP, Padres | Two years, $8.9MM remaining (Peralta can opt out again after 2026)

Peralta posted a career-worst 13.6% strikeout rate in year one of his four-year pact with San Diego in 2024. He passed on his first opt-out opportunity, and understandably so. It’s early, but the veteran lefty has more than doubled last year’s awful 8.3% swinging-strike rate, which now sits at 16.8% through 8 1/3 innings. Peralta is generating chases on an eye-popping 40% of his pitches off the plate, and his opponents’ 44.4% contact rate on those swings is the second-best mark of his career. He’s all but shelved his four-seamer, is barely using his slider, and is leaning hard into a sinker/changeup combo. He won’t sustain a 1.08 ERA, of course, but if he keeps piling up grounders and whiffs, he’ll have a good case to opt out, even at age 34.

Trevor Story, SS, Red Sox | Two years, $55MM remaining

It’s hard to believe we’re already in year four of Story’s six-year deal with Boston — in part because we simply haven’t seen him in a Red Sox uniform all that often. The former Rockies All-Star played in only one-third of the team’s games through the first three years of the contract. Injuries have decimated Story in recent years, and he produced a middling .232/.296/.397 line when healthy enough to play from 2022-24. He’s out to a much better start in 2025, playing in 20 games (already just six shy of last year’s total) and recording a .299/.325/.442 line with three homers. A 3.8% walk rate, 30% strikeout rate and .400 BABIP through 80 plate appearances don’t bode especially well, but to his credit, Story is torching the ball; he’s averaging 90.3 mph off the bat and has even better marks in barrel rate (11.3%) and hard-hit rate (54.7%). It’s hard to see him turning down the two years and $55MM after he’s been injured so much in Boston, but he’s enjoying a fine start to the year.

Robert Suarez, RHP, Padres | Two years, $16MM remaining

Suarez’s name popped up late in the offseason rumor mill, but he was always going to be a tough trade candidate because of this two-year player option. If he performed well, he’d opt out, and if he struggled and/or got hurt, the acquiring team would be saddled with two unwanted years. Such is the nature of trading anyone with a player option/opt-out. Suarez stayed put, and the Padres have to be thrilled. He’s 8-for-8 in save opportunities, hasn’t allowed a run in nine innings, and is boasting a 31.3% strikeout rate against a 6.3% walk rate. That strikeout rate is supported by a huge 16% swinging-strike rate. Suarez looks unhittable right now, just as he has in the past when at his best. There’s a lot of season left, and things can go south in a hurry for relievers in particular, but a player couldn’t ask for a better start to a platform season.

MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss MLBTR’s first edition of the 2025-26 Free Agent Power Rankings, including these focal points…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images

Blue Jays Notes: Burnes, Bregman, Scherzer, Varsho, Swanson, Burr

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The Blue Jays were one of the kings of the rumor mill this winter, seemingly linked to just about every notable name on the free agent market.  Corbin Burnes was one of those targets, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale sheds some light on the Jays’ pursuit in his notes column today while also countering his own past reporting on the matter.

Back in December, Nightengale wrote that the Jays and Giants offered Burnes more than the six-year, $210MM he received from the Diamondbacks.  Burnes himself described Arizona’s offer as “by far the best offer that we had,” as Nightengale’s latest report notes that the “Giants’ pursuit of Burnes stopped before it really got started.”  As for Toronto, Nightengale now writes that the Jays’ offer “was not only low, but was 75% deferred.”

While the exact dollar figures aren’t known, it seems possible that the Blue Jays might have technically offered more than $210MM, yet the heavy amount of deferred money involved lowered the contract’s current value to below what Burnes got from the D’Backs.  It should be noted that Burnes’ Arizona deal also involves $64MM in deferrals, and the fact that Burnes can opt out of his deal after the 2026 also impacts the financial structure.

Alex Bregman was another name reportedly on the Blue Jays’ target list, yet Nightengale writes that “they didn’t make a single offer to Bregman, let alone engage with him.”  The Jays entered the offseason without a clear answer at second or third base, so it made sense on paper that Toronto would at least check in on Bregman as a solution to the need at the hot corner.  Instead, the Jays acquired Andres Gimenez to become the new everyday second baseman, and stuck with internal options (i.e. Will Wagner, Ernie Clement) to split time at third base.

One free agent Toronto did sign was Max Scherzer, who inked a one-year, $15.5MM contract.  Unfortunately, the longtime star’s Jays debut ended after just three innings due to continued issues with his right thumb, leading to a trip to the 15-day injured list.  The righty received a cortisone shot just under two weeks ago, and Jays manager John Schneider told Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith and other reporters that a fresh set of imaging tests taken Friday didn’t reveal any damage.

While this represents some good news, both the team and Scherzer remain in day-to-day mode as they try to figure out the injury that has now bothered Scherzer for the better part of a year.  Scherzer is playing catch and throwing off of flat ground for now, but has yet to bump up his throwing program to prepare for a return to action.

Moving onto some more injury updates, Daulton Varsho will start playing in full extended Spring Training games this coming week.  Varsho underwent rotator cuff surgery last September and began the season on the 10-day injured list as he continued his rehab work.  Throwing remains the final step in the process, as Varsho has yet to start making full throws from the outfield, but presumably he’ll check that box before returning to proper game action.

Despite his semi-injured status, Varsho still got a good deal of work in during the Jays’ actual Spring Training, as he had 37 plate appearances as a designated hitter.  The fact that Varsho has been able to partake in other baseball activities beyond throwing could mean that it might not take him long to get fully ramped up for his eventual return to the Blue Jays’ active roster.  He’ll still surely need a Triple-A rehab assignment, but it appears as though Varsho is on pace to meet his expected timeline of an IL activation before the end of April.

Erik Swanson is also on the road to recovery after a median nerve entrapment in his right arm led to a season-opening stint on the IL.  Swanson will face live hitters this week and is expected to then start a minor league rehab assignment.  Ryan Burr threw a bullpen session yesterday, in the latest step of his rehab after he also started the year on the 15-day IL due to shoulder fatigue.

Astros Notes: Bregman, McCullers, Garcia, Walker

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Astros owner Jim Crane spoke to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) about a handful of topics today, most notably the club’s pursuit of a reunion with longtime third baseman Alex Bregman this winter. Bregman received a widely-reported offer of $156MM of six years from the Astros early in the winter, and Crane indicates that original offer was not altered at any point during Bregman’s free agency. Bregman, of course, went on to sign a three-year deal with the Red Sox that guarantees him $120MM and affords him the opportunity to opt out after the 2025 and ’26 seasons, though deferred money in that contract brings the net present value down to the $90MM range.

Crane’s comments notably conflict with a report back in February that indicated Houston had upped its offer to Bregman from that initial 6/156 figure. As Spring Training approached with Bregman still on the market, there were signals that the sides had resumed discussions as the club toyed with the idea of moving Jose Altuve to left field and Isaac Paredes to second base in order to bring Bregman back into the fold. While Altuve has moved to left field, Paredes remains entrenched at third in the aftermath of Bregman moving on to the Red Sox. After Bregman landed in Boston, the Astros pivoted towards Brendan Rodgers, who will share time with Mauricio Dubon at the keystone this year, to round out their infield mix.

More from Houston…

  • Rome also reports that right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. will make a start for Triple-A Sugar Land on Sunday. It’s a big milestone for the 31-year-old, as he hasn’t thrown in an official game at the major or minor league level since the 2022 World Series after undergoing flexor surgery back in 2023. That layoff of more than two years could come to an end fairly soon if the righty can avoid additional setbacks, as he’s tentatively expected to return in about a month and has to this point been kept off of the 60-day injured list.
  • News regarding the club’s other injured starter, Luis Garcia, is less positive but still at least somewhat encouraging. Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that the first opinion Garcia received on his right elbow was “decent news,” though that hasn’t stopped Garcia and the Astros from seeking a second opinion on the matter before deciding on a course of action. The right-hander was shut down last week after he began feeling discomfort in his elbow again while nearing the end of his rehab following Tommy John surgery back in 2023. While it’s unclear how much longer the 28-year-old figures to be out of action, that Espada showed any signs of encouragement would at least suggest that the righty has not yet been recommended for Tommy John surgery, which would wipe out his 2025 season and likely much of the 2026 campaign as well.
  • Rounding out the news with a positive update, first baseman Christian Walker is reportedly “full go” to start the season after dealing with some oblique soreness in the final weeks of Spring Training. As Walker himself told Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle and other reporters, Walker’s oblique issue “wasn’t too aggressive to begin with” and that he’s facing zero limitations as the season begins. Walker was the biggest acquisition of the club’s offseason, signed to a three-year, $60MM deal to replace the lackluster combination of Jose Abreu and Jon Singleton at first base this year for Houston.
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