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MLBTR Podcast: Winter Meetings, Ohtani Secrecy, and the Mariners Shedding Salary

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • If the Dodgers miss on Ohtani, what’s the next logical move? Will the Dodgers be interested in Jung Hoo Lee? (23:40)
  • Contracts are getting completely out of hand. Now Ohtani might pull in a $600 million dollar deal this week. Will the runaway inflation of MLB contracts sink the sport soon? It seems like fans will take the brunt of the costs and eventually turn away. (28:00)
  • Does anyone from MLB trade rumors attend the winter meetings? (32:35)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Braves, Leury Garcia Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Braves are in agreement with Leury García on a minor league deal, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction log. Robert Murray of FanSided tweets the utility player will get a look in big league Spring Training.

García returns to the affiliated ranks after sitting out the 2023 campaign. He was released by the White Sox at the end of Spring Training and spent the rest of the year in free agency. That ended a decade-long run in Chicago. García has never been much of an offensive contributor but endeared himself to multiple Sox coaching staffs with his defensive versatility.

He leveraged that into a three-year, $16.5MM contract when he hit free agency during the 2021-22 offseason. That always seemed a high price for a light-hitting utility player. It didn’t work out at all as the Sox had envisioned. García hit .210/.233/.267 in 97 games during the first season. He was cut loose before the start of year two.

García will make $5.5MM next year, his age-33 campaign. The White Sox are on the hook for that money. If García cracks the Braves roster at any point, Atlanta would only be responsible for the $740K league minimum for whatever time he spends in the majors. That makes this a no-risk flier to add multi-positional depth in exhibition play.

A switch-hitter, García owns a .253/.293/.350 batting line in over 2400 major league plate appearances. He has played everywhere aside from catcher and first base, seeing the plurality of his time in center field. García also has plenty of experience in the corner outfield and at both middle infield positions. Public defensive metrics have graded him around average at every spot.

Braves, Max Fried Discussed Extension Prior To 2023 Season

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The Braves and left-hander Max Fried had talks about a contract extension prior to the start of last season, according to Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.  Obviously no agreement was reached, and it isn’t known if any more negotiations have since taken place between the two sides.

As expected, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos gave no hints when speaking with Toscano and other reporters at the Winter Meetings, saying “We have [Fried] under contract for ‘24; he’s not under contract for 2025.  Obviously, anything beyond that, we’re going to keep that private.  I can go into all the comments about how great he is, but I’ve done that many times in the past….We always have an eye on ‘25, but the focus for us is ‘24.”

2023 was a difficult season for Fried, who pitched only 77 2/3 innings during the regular season due to a forearm strain, a hamstring strain, and a blister problem that emerged in late September.  Fried didn’t pitch from September 21 until Game 2 of the NLDS on October 9, and the long layoff could’ve contributed to his shaky performance of three runs allowed over four innings of work (though Game 2 was Atlanta’s lone win of the NLDS).

Despite the injuries and the Braves’ disappointingly short playoff run, Fried still delivered when he was healthy enough to pitch.  The southpaw posted a 2.55 ERA over his 77 2/3 regular-season frames, as well as a 25.7% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate that bettered his career averages in both categories heading into 2023.  The injury concerns can’t be completely set aside heading into next season and into the future, yet there is no doubt that Fried still looks like one of baseball’s top pitchers.

That track record has manifested itself with a $14.4MM projected salary for Fried this winter as he enters his fourth and final year of arbitration eligibility as a Super Two player.  Considering that Fried and the Braves have gone to hearings in each of the last two offseasons (Fried won in 2022, the Braves won in 2023), this will be one of the more interesting arbitration situations to monitor this winter, even if Fried’s injuries will limit his raise to only slightly beyond his $13.5MM salary for 2023.

There’s still plenty of time for the Braves and Fried’s representatives at CAA to work out an extension, and continue Atlanta’s strategy of locking up its stars to long-term deals.  As Toscano notes, however, the team doesn’t extend everyone, as Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson both departed in free agency in each of the last two offseasons.  The Braves have also tended to pursue extensions with players earlier in their careers, not players as close to free agency as Fried.  From the pitcher’s perspective, he might also not want to sign a long-term deal coming off a relative down year, as a healthy and effective 2024 campaign will put Fried in line for a hefty contract next winter.

For speculation’s sake, it seems unlikely that Atlanta might consider dealing Fried this offseason if they think an extension can’t or won’t be worked out.  Anthopoulos certainly has a long history of bold trades, yet since Atlanta is already looking to starting pitching, it would take a particularly creative move or sets of moves to bolster the rotation while also moving arguably the team’s best starter.  Considering what happened with Freeman and Swanson, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Braves keep Fried and then let him get to free agency and perhaps depart.

Pirates Acquire Marco Gonzales

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The Pirates announced the acquisition of left-hander Marco Gonzales and cash considerations from the Braves. Atlanta receives a player to be named later or cash in return. The move comes just two days after Atlanta landed Gonzales as part of a five-player trade with the Mariners, yet it was already expected that Gonzales would be quickly flipped to another team.

Pittsburgh will presumably now be Gonzales’ final landing spot of the offseason, as the southpaw brings some experience to a Pirates team sorely in need of rotation help.  Beyond ace Mitch Keller, the Bucs’ projected starting staff is thin on MLB service time and lacking in quality results at the big league level.  Roansy Contreras, Bailey Falter, Luis Ortiz, and Quinn Priester were lined up as the next four in the rotation, as Johan Oviedo will miss all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows won’t be options until closer to midseason due to TJ procedures of their own from last April.  2023 first overall draft pick Paul Skenes is expected to be on a fast track to the big leagues as early as next season, yet with only 6 2/3 pro innings on his resume, it is too early to assume Skenes is a lock for his MLB debut in 2024.

This isn’t to say that Gonzales (who turns 32 in February) is necessarily a clear-cut upgrade for the Buccos, as he is trying to bounce back from essentially a lost season.  Gonzales’ 2023 campaign was cut short by a forearm strain in May, and he had struggled to a 5.22 ERA over 50 innings and 10 starts for Seattle before going on the injured list.  While the forearm problem was a painful new wrinkle to the proceedings, the overall dip in form wasn’t a total surprise, given how Gonzales has been outperforming his peripheral numbers for years.

Gonzales posted a 3.94 ERA over 765 2/3 innings for the Mariners from 2018-22, with a more unflattering 4.64 SIERA reflecting his lack of strikeouts.  Though Gonzales isn’t a hard thrower and he doesn’t miss many bats, he still achieved success with a recipe of solid control and limiting hard contact.  Despite the lack of velocity, Gonzales’ four-seamer was quietly one of the more effective pitches in baseball before 2022, when it suddenly dropped into being a below-average offering.

If Gonzales can stay healthy and get back to his pre-2023 results, that alone represents a nice boost for the Pirates’ staff.  It might help that the lefty is leaving Seattle for another pretty pitcher-friendly locale in PNC Park, as home runs also became an increasing problem for Gonzales in 2021-22.

2024 is the last guaranteed season of the four-year, $30MM extension that Gonzales signed with the Mariners prior to the 2020 campaign, and the deal also contains a $15MM club option for 2025 with no buyout.  Since Gonzales received a $250K assignment bonus for being traded from the Mariners, the $4.5MM Seattle included in the trade package to Atlanta left $7.75MM remaining in owed salary to the left-hander.  The Braves have eaten part of that portion to facilitate this next deal with Pittsburgh, only increasing Gonzales’ affordable nature — no small matter for a Pirates team that is always looking to keep its spending in check.

Though the Bucs are intending to raise their modest payroll by some extent, obtaining Gonzales for less than $7.75MM allows the club to fill one rotation hole without taking up much of whatever spending capacity GM Ben Cherington has been allotted this winter.  Since Jack Flaherty is another name on the Pirates’ radar, it could be that Pittsburgh will address its rotation with veterans on short-term deals, hoping that at least one reclamation project like Gonzales or Flaherty can bounce back to become solid starter.

From Atlanta’s perspective, taking on the contracts of Gonzales and Evan White was the price necessary to obtain Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners.  White’s injury history makes him more or less immovable outside of a total salary dump, yet Gonzales’ history as a decently effective and durable starter prior to 2022 made him a better candidate to be flipped, considering the league-wide need for pitching depth.  The Braves are known to be looking for higher-tier pitching upgrades themselves, after missing out on Aaron Nola earlier in the offseason.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Pirates were acquiring Gonzales and cash for a player to be named later.

Jed Hoyer Denies Cubs Are Out On Shohei Ohtani

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Earlier today, a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today said that the Cubs were falling out of the bidding for Shohei Ohtani, saying that their “optimism of landing Ohtani has now significantly waned.” However, the club’s president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer denied that framing at the Winter Meetings. “I don’t know where that came from,” Hoyer said to Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. “There’s no nothing to report whatsoever.”

The Ohtani sweepstakes have been notably unusual since he and his camp reportedly prefer a shroud of secrecy over the proceedings. Reporting appears to indicate that the field is down to five clubs: The Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs and Giants. Ohtani is “believed” to have met with the Jays recently and there were “indications” of a meeting with the Giants prior to that. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts decided not to play the cloak-and-dagger games, straight up admitting that his club recently met with Ohtani.

Overall, information has been tougher to come by than a typical free agency, but Hoyer felt compelled to address today’s reporting. He said they have not been given a “status check” from Ohtani’s reps but wouldn’t discuss the club’s interest beyond that. Earlier today, manager Craig Counsell was asked about having meetings with Ohtani and replied “I have not,” per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. When asked if the front office had met with Ohtani, he repeated his “I have not” response.

The Cubs currently have a payroll of $178MM, per Roster Resource. That’s $25MM shy of their franchise high payroll of $203MM, per the figures at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Ohtani is expected to require a contract with an average annual value somewhere in the $40-50MM range, but it stands to reason the Cubs would probably have some willingness to go beyond previous spending levels for such a uniquely talented player as Ohtani. Beyond his on-field talents, he is a big international star who should be able to provide his next club with extra revenue via increased ratings, merchandise sales and ticket sales.

One club that seems to be in the opposite position is Atlanta. It was reported recently by Jon Morosi of MLB.com that the club was “actively involved” in the Ohtani bidding. But president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos seemed to contradict that in speaking to the media today. When asked about the club’s interest in Ohtani, he said the only position player they’ve pursued this offseason is Jarred Kelenic, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. They acquired Kelenic earlier this week and Anthopoulos says they are now happy with the lineup and group of position players.

Ohtani would upgrade any team in the world but it’s unclear where his priorities lie. He could go for the largest guarantee or a contract with multiple opt-outs, or perhaps something different like geography or a club’s ability to win, or perhaps a combination of those factors. Given the secrecy around the meetings, it’s also unclear how each club is pitching Ohtani or what kind of offers they are discussing.

Red Sox “Stepping Up Efforts” In Pursuit Of Seth Lugo

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Dec. 5: The Red Sox are “stepping up [their] efforts” to bring Lugo to Boston, reports Heyman, who notes that the Braves are among the four to five other clubs still in the mix for the righty. Cotillo tweets the Red Sox are “expected” to make a formal offer to Lugo soon, if they haven’t already.

Dec. 4: Seth Lugo is a popular target in the middle tiers of free agency. The Tigers (prior to signing Kenta Maeda) and Dodgers have been publicly tied to the right-hander, who has reportedly drawn interest from upwards of half the league.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds a few more clubs to the mix, reporting that the Braves are among the teams showing interest. Heyman adds the Reds, Red Sox and Diamondbacks have also been involved this offseason — although it’s not specified whether Cincinnati’s interest predated their two-year contract with Lugo’s former San Diego teammate Nick Martinez.

The newly revealed suitors on Lugo are all sensible. Each has found themselves in the market for starting pitching. The Braves made a run at Aaron Nola before he returned to the Phillies. They subsequently signed Reynaldo López, whom they’re considering stretching back to rotation work. Atlanta also acquired Marco Gonzales in last night’s trade with the Mariners but reportedly plan to flip the southpaw elsewhere.

Boston has been in the market for multiple starting pitchers. They’re involved on top-of-the-market options like Jordan Montgomery and Yoshinobu Yamamoto but are surely identifying targets at various tiers of free agency. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow reiterated this afternoon that the rotation was the Sox’s top priority (relayed by Chris Cotillo of MassLive).

The D-Backs have made no secret of their desire for a mid-rotation starter to step in behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly and alongside Brandon Pfaadt. Arizona general manager Mike Hazen suggested this evening that acquisition was likelier to come via free agency than trade, although he unsurprisingly indicated they’re exploring both avenues (link via Steve Gilbert of MLB.com).

Cincinnati added Martinez last week, bringing in the veteran righty to join an otherwise young starting staff. There’s still room for more innings considering the injury history and/or limited MLB track records of players like Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott, Graham Ashcraft and Brandon Williamson. The Reds have also left open the possibility of keeping Martinez in a swing/multi-inning relief role, although it’d be an odd decision to guarantee him $13MM annually over two seasons if they didn’t anticipate him earning a spot in the rotation.

Lugo, entering his age-34 campaign, is reportedly seeking a three-year deal. He has a strong case for one on the heels of a 3.57 ERA over 26 starts for the Padres.

Latest On Braves’ Offseason Plans

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A potential trade of White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease has been among the most prominent storylines of the offseason to this point, as White Sox GM Chris Getz has made clear that his club is operating with no untouchables as they look to retool after a 101-loss season. One of the teams most frequently connected to Cease is the Braves, who have a clear need in their rotation after losing Kyle Wright to shoulder surgery and subsequently dealing him to the Royals earlier this offseason.

MLB.com’s Mark Bowman pushed back against reports of Atlanta’s involvement in the Cease sweepstakes today, however, even as speculation regarding the right-hander has begun to intensify alongside the start of the Winter Meetings. Bowman acknowledges that the 27-year-old hurler was on the club’s radar earlier in the offseason but indicates that there isn’t “currently a fit” between the sides while suggesting that Atlanta’s level of interest and involvement in trade talks with Chicago has been “overblown.”

Bowman’s report also indicates that the Braves haven’t shown “serious interest” in two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani this offseason. While the Braves are not among the teams that have been most frequently connected to Ohtani’s market this offseason, Bowman’s characterization is a significant departure from a report earlier today from Jon Morosi of MLB Network, who suggested that the Braves not only have shown interest in Ohtani but are one of the teams still “actively involved” in the negotiation process.

While Bowman downplays the club’s interest in making a headline-grabbing move for Cease or Ohtani, he nonetheless suggests that the Braves are “not done” following last night’s move to acquire Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White from the Mariners, leaving the door open to the possibility the Braves make “at least one more big move.” Such a deal could even come in the form of a trade for a front-line starter, with Bowman suggesting Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow as possible alternatives to Cease on the trade market.

Of course, it’s worth noting that the club is in uncharted territory in terms of payroll. After posting a franchise record payroll of $205MM in 2023 (per RosterResource), the Braves are currently projected for an Opening Day payroll of $220MM in 2024, with a luxury tax figure of just over $256MM. That puts them right up against the second tax threshold of $257MM, meaning that the club would surely need to shed payroll before making further moves if they hope to avoid that second threshold. Bowman echoes reporting from earlier today that suggested the Braves will attempt to flip Gonzales, who is owed $12.25MM in 2024, before the offseason comes to a close. In addition to the possibility of flipping Gonzales, Bowman suggests the club could look to “sell high” on either DH Marcell Ozuna or closer Raisel Iglesias in deals that would simultaneously shed salary while potentially bringing in additional talent.

Ozuna is owed $18MM in 2024, the final guaranteed year of his contract that also includes a $16MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2025. The 33-year-old slugger is coming off a strong season at the plate during which he slashed .274/.346/.558 while crushing 40 home runs, 29 doubles, and a triple. While he’s largely limited to DH at this point in his career, he’d surely draw interest on the trade market from clubs looking to upgrade their lineup; just six hitters reached the 40-homer plateau in 2023, and just four posted a higher ISO than Ozuna’s .285 figure.

Iglesias, meanwhile, posted a 2.75 ERA and 3.26 FIP while collecting 33 saves for the Braves across 55 2/3 innings of work. It’s the fourth-consecutive season in which Iglesias has posted an ERA below 3.o0 as the 33-year-old has emerged as one of the most reliable closers in the league in recent years. Excellent as Iglesias has been, he’s guaranteed a $16MM salary in each of the next two seasons. That’s a hefty sum to pay for a reliever even with Iglesias’s pedigree. Bowman also points out the club has plenty of established back-end relief options who could anchor the bullpen if Iglesias were to be moved including left-hander A.J. Minter and offseason addition Reynaldo Lopez, though it’s worth noting the club currently plans to stretch the righty out as a potential starting option for 2024.

Braves Likely To Trade Marco Gonzales

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Last night’s Braves/Mariners trade saw Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales and Evan White go from Seattle to Atlanta, but it seems Gonzales’ stay with the Braves will be brief. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the Braves aren’t planning to keep Gonzales and expect to move him in another trade. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds that Gonzales himself expected as much to happen after being informed he’d been traded to Atlanta. It’s not yet clear if there’s an imminent trade involving Gonzales or if he’s being shopped around at present, but it’s a notable revelation with regard to the Braves’ rotation outlook all the same.

Gonzales, 32 in February, is due to earn $12MM this season in the final season of a four-year, $30MM extension he signed back in 2020. The contract also contains a $15MM club option for the 2025 season, which does not come with a buyout.

The soft-tossing Gonzales was a quality member of the Seattle rotation from 2018-22, pitching 765 2/3 innings of 3.94 ERA ball along the way. He became quite homer-prone in 2021, however, and saw an already below-average strikeout rate dip to concerning levels in 2022. Gonzales still posted a solid earned run average over those two seasons, but the home run and strikeout trends were noted red flags.

While the lefty managed to cut back on the homers he allowed in 2023, Gonzales was still tagged for a grim 5.22 ERA in 50 innings. His 15.8% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in the game and the second-worst of his Mariners tenure. His 8.4% walk rate was the worst of his career. Three of his ten starts last year were actually quite serviceable, but Gonzales was clobbered for eight runs on two occasions and also served up four runs through five innings in his first outing of the year. Ultimately, a left forearm strain ended his season in late May.

For the Braves, it’s sensible to see them look to move Gonzales elsewhere. He’d at best have been a fifth starter candidate in a team that boasts Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder in the top four spots on the staff. His $12MM salary also pushed the Braves into the second tier of luxury penalization.

The Associated Press reports that Seattle is set to send $4.5MM to Atlanta to cover part of that $12MM sum — $12.25MM, if counting the $250K assignment bonus Gonzales received as part of being traded. As such, the Braves would only owe Gonzales about $7.75MM in actual salary, but he’s still cost them a bit more than $10MM once factoring in the penalties the team would’ve incurred under the competitive balance tax.

That’s probably more than the Braves care to spend on a back-of-the-rotation candidate who’s not clearly a superior option to in-house candidates like AJ Smith-Shawver and Dylan Dodd, and it might even be more than Gonzales could expect to command on the open market after an injury-marred season. Presumably, if and when Gonzales changes hands a second time, those cost-savings will be redirected to his new team.

While Gonzales perhaps isn’t a fit for a win-now Braves club with at least four healthier and better options in the rotation ahead of him, that doesn’t mean he can’t help another club. There are several teams throughout the league — Royals, A’s, Rockies, White Sox, Padres, Nationals to name a few — who are simply looking for innings to round out the starting staff. Gonzales’ 50 frames last year don’t paint the picture of an innings eater, but he’d averaged 30 starts and 174 frames over his past four 162-game seasons prior to 2023 (plus 11 starts and 69 2/3 innings in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign). If Gonzales’ medicals show that the forearm strain which ended his season is in the rearview mirror, another club might feel it can comfortably rely on him for 150ish innings this coming season. And if the Mariners are footing roughly a third of the bill regardless of where Gonzales lands, he could be viewed as a relatively affordable source of those innings at a time when veteran free agents in their late 30s (i.e. Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson) are commanding $12-13MM for similar roles.

Trade Notes: Cease, Glasnow, Braves

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The free agent market for pitchers has been much more active than for position players so far this winter. Seven of MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents have signed new deals, and six have been pitchers: Aaron Nola, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Reynaldo López, Nick Martinez, and Luis Severino. Moreover, 11 different pitchers have already signed for $10MM or more; no position player has crossed the eight-figure threshold.

Still, with Yoshinobu Yamamoto unlikely to sign during the Winter Meetings, it’s possible the market for starting pitching could slow down, as suitors wait for Yamamoto to make his decision and other frontline starters (namely Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery) wait for Yamamoto to set the going rate. With that in mind, perhaps the various starting pitchers on the trade block will draw even more attention during the next four days.

Indeed, Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that the market for 2022 Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease is “robust,” noting that the Dodgers, Braves, and Orioles – among other teams – are involved in trade talks with the White Sox. Further clubs that have been linked to Cease in recent days include the Mets and Cardinals.

Last week, Morosi reported that discussions around Cease had “intensified” and suggested a deal before the Winter Meetings was “increasingly possible.” However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic threw cold water on that rumor, reporting that White Sox general manager Chris Getz would most likely wait to trade Cease until more of the top free agent starters were off the board. While no further frontline starters have signed in the last few days, Morosi’s report about the robust market for Cease at the Winter Meetings is enough to rekindle speculation about a potential trade in the coming days. After all, if the White Sox have their eye on any particular trade chips, they’d be smart to strike before those chips are spent on Tyler Glasnow or Shane Bieber instead.

Some more trade-related news from around baseball…

  • Speaking of Glasnow, the Rays starter is generating a great deal of interest, according to Jon Heyman of the New York Post. While it shouldn’t come as any surprise that plenty of teams would love the right-hander in their rotation – he had a 3.53 ERA and 3.08 SIERA in 21 starts last season – it is noteworthy that he’s drawing so much interest so soon. His $25MM salary for the 2024 season is much more than Cease or Bieber will earn in arbitration, and there are plenty of free agent pitchers available who will only cost money, rather than money and prospects. Evidently, however, his talent is enough to outweigh his price tag.
  • Speaking on a Zoom call with members of the media, Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos emphasized that the team is not planning to trade any of its young players signed to long-term extensions (as relayed by Justin Toscano of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution). While Anthopoulos qualified his statement with the caveat of “special circumstances,” the executive stressed with “absolute, fierce confidence” that he is “extremely unlikely” to trade anyone from his cost-controlled young core. That group includes Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, Spencer Strider, and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., all of whom are under team control through at least the 2027 season.

Braves Acquire Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, Evan White From Mariners

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The Braves have acquired outfielder Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, left-hander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White are also headed to Atlanta in the deal. In return, the Mariners will receive right-handers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips. The Braves have since announced the deal, which includes cash considerations headed from Seattle to Atlanta.

Kelenic, the sixth-overall pick in the 2018 draft and a former consensus top-5 prospect in the sport, struggled to a .168/.251/.338 slash line in 558 trips to the plate across his first two seasons in the majors. Despite the brutal start to Kelenic’s big league career, he managed to put together a solid campaign in 2023 as Seattle’s regular left fielder. In 416 trips to the plate across 105 games, the youngster slashed a solid .253/.327/.419. Now Kelenic, who is not yet eligible for arbitration, heads to Atlanta with five seasons of team control remaining coming off a career-best season in the majors where he posted a wRC+ of 108.

Even that performance came with some red flags, however. While Kelenic walked at an above average 9.9% clip, his 31.7% strikeout rate ranked in just the seventh percentile among qualified hitters and his overall slash line surely benefited from a .359 BABIP. He also struggled considerably after a hot April, slashing just .235/.314/.356 the rest of the way. That said, it’s worth noting that Kelenic, who will play the 2024 season at just age-24, posted a .321 wOBA in 2023 that was actually 12 points lower than his expected number of .333. Additionally, his .359 BABIP in 2023 may not be as outlandish as his career .268 mark in the majors may suggest, as he’s never posted a BABIP lower than .323 at the Triple-A level in a season during his career. In addition, it’s possible his late-season numbers are skewed by the fact that the 24-year-old missed more than two months after he suffered a fractured foot from kicking a water cooler back in July.

Looking ahead to 2024, The Athletic’s David O’Brien relays that the Braves plan to have Kelenic and Vaughn Grissom compete for the everyday role in left field during the spring, with a platoon situation between the two possible as Grissom looks to split time between the left field and the infield dirt. That said, it certainly seems possible that Kelenic could earn an everyday role in Atlanta if he shows his step forward in 2023 wasn’t a fluke. Even if Kelenic simply repeats his 2023 campaign he would represent a notable upgrade over Eddie Rosario, who drew 122 starts in left field for the Braves last year while slashing just .255/.305/.450 (100 wRC+) in 516 trips to the plate.

To acquire Kelenic, the Braves take on the salaries of both Gonzales and White. Gonzales is owed $12.25MM in 2024, while White is owed $7MM in 2024, $8MM in 2025, and a $2MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2026. While it’s not currently known how much cash Atlanta received in the deal, it’s fair to assume the Braves are taking on the majority of that nearly $30MM in guaranteed money, including $19.25MM in dollars owed this next season. Before accounting for the cash received from Seattle, the deal pushes Atlanta’s 2024 payroll to just over $224MM and just under $261MM for luxury tax purposes, per RosterResource. If that projection holds going forward, it would put the Braves just over the second luxury tax threshold, which sits at $257MM for the 2024 campaign.

Gonzales, 32 in February, struggled to a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings across ten starts this season before undergoing season-ending surgery to repair a nerve issue in his forearm. Gonzales is expected to be ready for Spring Training in 2024 and, if healthy, could provide the Braves with a serviceable back-end rotation option who could give competition to Reynaldo Lopez and Bryce Elder in Spring Training. Prior to his injury-marred 2023 season, Gonzales had been a reliable source of innings for the Mariners in recent years, averaging 174 innings of work across four 162-game seasons between 2018 and 2022. Gonzales’s contract includes a $15MM club option for the 2025 season that does not include a buyout, though Gonzales would likely have to take a significant step forward in 2024 for the Braves to consider exercising that option.

White, 27, does not figure to be a contributor to the Braves over the life of his contract. The former top prospect owns a career .165/.235/.308 slash line in the majors and has not appeared in the big leagues since May 2021. Over the past two seasons, White has appeared in just 30 professional games with a slash line of just .200/.310/.397 at the Triple-A level during that time. White spent almost the entire 2023 campaign on the 60-day IL, first due to a left adductor strain and then thanks to hip surgery, though he too is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

In addition to taking on the salaries of White and Gonzales, the Braves parted with a pair of interesting young arms in Kowar and Phillips. Kowar’s stay in the Braves organization was a short one, as the righty had just been acquired from the Royals last month as the return in the Kyle Wright trade. As a former top-100 prospect and Kansas City’s first-round pick in the 2018 draft, Kowar is an intriguing piece despite his struggles in the majors to this point in his career. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted at the time of his trade to Atlanta, Kowar averaged 97 mph on his fastball in 2023 after converting to full-time relief duties and thanks to his eligibility for a fourth option year in 2024 figures to provide the Mariners with a fireballing, optionable relief arm headed into next season. Phillips, meanwhile, was Atlanta’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft. The 20-year-old has not yet made his professional debut after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but ranked as the Braves’ #7 prospect per MLB Pipeline prior to the swap.

As for the Mariners, the club is clearly in the midst of retooling their lineup. The club has traded both Kelenic and third baseman Eugenio Suarez and non-tendered DH Mike Ford since the offseason began while watching Teoscar Hernandez depart via free agency, leaving four major holes in the club’s lineup. That being said, the departures of those four players figure to help Seattle in their quest to improve their lineup’s contact skills next season; each of the aforementioned hitters struck out more than 30% of the time in 2024. Parting ways with four of the league’s most punchout prone bats is an excellent start toward that goal, even as the club faces an uphill battle in replacing the quartet’s production.

While replacing four members of the club’s starting lineup is no easy task, Seattle at least figures to have plenty of payroll space with which to accomplish that goal. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $115MM in 2024 pending the addition of cash considerations sent to Atlanta, while Adam Judge of The Seattle Times notes that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated today that the club’s payroll will “very likely” rise in 2024 relative to its 2023 total. The Mariners posted a payroll of $140MM in 2023, meaning the club should have more than $25MM worth of room to make additions to their lineup, though it’s unclear how much Seattle is willing to surpass that $140MM figure.

Even with that amount of money available for additions, it’s worth noting that the club would need to significantly increase payroll over its 2023 levels to be able to make even one impact addition on the level of, for example, Cody Bellinger or Juan Soto. Given the number of holes the Mariners will need to fill in their lineup, it seems more likely that the club will be limited to adding mid-level salaries to its payroll. The free agent market is unlikely to offer many solutions, with the best mid-level bats such as Hernandez and Matt Chapman being among the more strikeout-prone players available this winter.

That said, the club has reportedly discussed deals for both outfielder Randy Arozarena and third baseman Isaac Paredes with the Rays recently. Adding even one of those players would surely require significant capital in terms of prospects and young players, though it’s worth noting that the Rays appear to be on the hunt for controllable starting pitching, which the Mariners have an excess of. Speculatively speaking, swinging a deal for Paredes and/or Arozarena would allow Seattle to shore up its lineup without breaking the bank, allowing the club to pursue contact-oriented bats like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Whit Merrifield in free agency.

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