Blue Jays Acquire Jordan Hicks
The Blue Jays landed one of the most sought-after bullpen arms on the trade market Sunday, announcing the acquisition of righty Jordan Hicks from the Cardinals in exchange for Double-A right-handers Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein. In a corresponding roster move, Toronto designated righty Mitch White for assignment. Hicks had previously been reported to be discussing an extension with the Cardinals ahead of the trade deadline on August 1, though those discussions seemingly stalled out earlier in the week.
Hicks, 26, was a third-round pick in the 2015 draft by the Cardinals. He made his big league debut back in 2018 and threw 77 2/3 innings in his first big league season, with a 3.59 ERA and 3.74 FIP. While he generated an impressive 60.7% groundball rate in his rookie campaign, he posted a lackluster 20.6% strikeout rate and struggled badly with his control to the point of walking 13.3% of batters faced. Early on in his sophomore 2019 season, Hicks required Tommy John surgery. That surgery began a series of injuries and setbacks that would limit him to just 38 2/3 innings of work from 2019-21.
Finally fully healthy in 2022, the Cardinals decided to try using Hicks as a member of the rotation. That experiment did not go well, as Hicks posted a 5.84 ERA and 5.54 FIP in 24 2/3 innings of work across seven starts while walking a whopping 16% of batters faced over that stretch. While he pitched a bit better upon returning to the bullpen, he nonetheless finished the 2022 campaign with 4.84 ERA and 13.3% walk rate in 61 1/3 innings of work.
The 2023 campaign started off difficultly for Hicks once again, as he yielded a whopping nine runs (eight earned) in just 5 2/3 innings of work in his first seven appearances of the year. Since then, however, he’s settled in as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball over the past few months. Since April 18, Hicks sports a 2.25 ERA and a sterling 1.92 FIP in 36 innings of work. He’s cut his walk rate to 10.4% in that time, a figure that, while somewhat elevated, is more than made up for by a phenomenal 34.4% strikeout rate. Hicks also sports a characteristically excellent 58.3% groundball rate this season, a figure that has led him to allow just two home runs all season, and none since he got his season back on track in mid-April.
Hicks’s dominant arm makes him a perfect candidate for Toronto’s bullpen, as the Blue Jays lost closer Jordan Romano to the 15-day injured list earlier this weekend thanks to lower back inflammation. While it’s possible Romano will return fairly quickly after the minimum 15-day stint, he’s been plagued by the issue since it caused him to depart the All Star game earlier this month. Still, it would hardly be a surprise to see the Blue Jays take additional time to ensure their closer is fully healthy upon his return given both the nagging nature of the issue and the importance of Romano, who leads the AL with 28 saves this season and sports a 2.79 ERA in 42 innings this season, to the club’s success.
In return for Hicks’s services, the Blue Jays are paying a hefty prospect toll. Robberse appears to be the headliner in the deal as the club’s seventh-best prospect according to MLB Pipeline and their sixth-best prospect according to Fangraphs. Originally signed out of the Netherlands back in 2019, the 21-year-old hurler sports a 92-94 mph fastball, quality secondary offerings in both a changeup and a slider, and plus command. In 113 1/3 innings of work at the Double-A level, Robberse owns a 3.97 ERA and a strikeout rate of 22%.
Kloffenstein, meanwhile, goes unranked on both Pipeline’s and Fangraphs’s lists. Fangraphs describes Kloffenstein as a pitcher with a four-pitch mix highlighted by a sinker and a slider, though it ultimately pegs him as more of an innings-eating, depth starter type. That evaluation, however, is from prior to the 2023 campaign, where Kloffenstein has impressed to this point. Toronto’s third-round pick in the 2018 draft has shoved across 89 innings of work at Double-A this season to the tune of a 3.24 ERA with a strikeout rate of 27.6%, a figure well above his career rate of 23.5% entering the 2023 campaign.
Both Kloffenstein and Robberse clearly fit the mold of return the Cardinals have reportedly been looking for in dangling their rental arms this summer: controllable, upper-level starting pitching prospects. Both Robberse and Kloffenstein project as starters going forward and have over 100 innings of experience at Double-A, with Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat noting that both hurlers are set to be promoted to Triple-A by the Cardinals organization. Given that promotion, it seems reasonable to assume both pitchers will be on the big league radar for sometime in 2024, barring injury or ineffectiveness changing the timeline.
The deal also spells the end of White’s time in Toronto. A second-round selection by the Dodgers in the 2016 draft, White impressed with a 3.44 ERA and 3.78 FIp in 49 2/3 innings of work across his first two seasons in the majors. He continued his success in a Dodgers uniform in 2022 with a 3.70 ERA and 3.95 FIP in 56 innings of work, but the club dealt White to Toronto at the trade deadline last season. Since joining the Blue Jays, White has struggled mightily, with a 7.60 ERA in 55 2/3 innings of work. While he posted a 4.03 FIP that far outstrips his results as a member of the Jays, his walk rate has ticked up to 11.7% this season, a level unlikely to be sustainable given his mediocre 21.7% strikeout rate. Going forward, Toronto will have one week to either waive or release White, assuming he himself isn’t traded before the deadline on August 1.
Craig Mish of the Miami Herald first reported that Hicks had been traded to Toronto. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that Kloffenstein was part of the return. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet first reported Robberse’s inclusion in the deal.
Orioles Designate Eduard Bazardo For Assignment
The Orioles have designated right-hander Eduard Bazardo for assignment, per a club announcement. In corresponding moves, the club has selected the contract of right-hander Joey Krehbiel and optioned right-hander Tyler Wells to Double-A Bowie.
Bazardo, 27, made his big league debut back in 2021 with the Red Sox, pitching for them in parts of two seasons. Bazardo then elected free agency after being designated for assignment in October 2022. That December, he landed with Baltimore on a minor league deal before being selected to the roster earlier this month. In all, Bazardo sports a career 3.74 ERA and 5.26 FIP in 21 2/3 innings in the majors. He’s posted similar numbers at the Triple-A level in his career, with a 3.86 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate in 107 innings of work at the level, which includes a strong 3.05 ERA in 38 1/3 innings with the Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate in Norfolk this season.
The Orioles have a week to trade, waive, or release Bazardo, though of course any trade would have to come prior to the trade deadline on August 1. In the event that Bazardo clears waivers successfully, the Orioles will have the opportunity to outright him to the minor leagues, though Bazardo has the right to reject that assignment as a player who’s been outrighted previously in his career.
Bazardo’s exit makes room for Krehbiel on the 40-man roster. A 12th-round pick by the Angels in the 2011 draft, Krehbiel broke into the majors with the Diamondbacks and the Rays before settling in with the Orioles midway through the 2021 campaign. He became a major piece of Baltimore’s bullpen in 2022, with a 3.90 ERA that clocked in at exactly league average by measure of ERA+.
While his work last season was certainly solid, Krehbiel was ultimately designated for assignment early in the 2023 season, before making an appearance at the major league level this season. He performed well at the Triple-A level this year after accepting an outright assignment, with a 3.00 ERA in 30 innings of work. That performance has earned Krehbiel another chance in the majors, where he figures to cover the middle innings for the Orioles alongside the likes of Bryan Baker and Shintaro Fujinami.
Perhaps the most surprising news of the day is the club’s decision to option Wells to make room for Krehbiel on the active roster. Wells has pitched fairly well as a member of the club’s rotation this season, with a 3.80 ERA in 113 2/3 innings of work. That quality run prevention figure belies his recent control problems, however. In the month of July, Wells has walked 13 batters in 21 innings, nearly as many as he’s struck out (16). That’s contributed to a 6.43 ERA and a 7.76 FIP this month, the latter of which has ballooned his FIP to a worrisome 5.17 figure on the season.
It’s unclear how long Wells figures to remain in the minor leagues, but his struggles and subsequent demotion highlight the club’s need for starting pitching ahead of the trade deadline on August 1. Only eight teams in the majors have gotten less fWAR out of their starters than Baltimore, and of those only the Yankees, Reds, and Red Sox have any hope of making the playoffs this season.
Cubs Outright Edwin Rios
The Cubs have outrighted infielder Edwin Rios, according to Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. There had been no previous indication that Rios had been designated for assignment. Chicago’s 40-man roster drops to 39 as a result of the move. Rios has the requisite service time to reject an outright assignment, but would forfeit the remainder of his $1MM salary in doing so.
A sixth-round pick by the Dodgers in the 2015 draft, Rios made his big league debut with the club in 2019 and thrived in a bench role with LA, slashing a phenomenal .260/.338/.634 in 139 plate appearances across his first two seasons in the majors. The following two seasons, however, weren’t as fruitful. From 2021-22, Rios battled hamstring and shoulder injuries while slashing just .183/.263/.365 in 152 plate appearances. That combination of injuries and ineffectiveness led the Dodgers to non-tender Rios this past offseason.
Upon departing LA Rios joined the Cubs, who signed him to a $1MM major league deal in hopes of Rios providing lefty power off the bench for the club. Things didn’t go according to plan for Rios or Chicago, however, as the now 29-year-old slugger slashed just .071/.235/.214 with a massive 47.1% strikeout rate in 34 trips to the plate. That performance was enough for the Cubs to demote Rios to Triple-A for most of the 2023 campaign despite the small sample size.
Now, more than a month removed from Rios’s last big league appearance, he’s off the 40-man roster entirely. Assuming he opts to accept his outright assignment in order to retain the remainder of his salary, Rios figures to serve as a depth bench option for the Cubs’ infield, though he’s blocked by the likes of Matt Mervis and Miles Mastrobuoni, both of whom are already on the 40-man roster.
Cubs Take Cody Bellinger Off Trade Market
The Cubs entered the month of July widely expected to be sellers this trade season, but the club has turned their season around since the All Star break. Chicago is currently riding an eight-game win streak and have won ten of their last eleven games. The recent hot streak has propelled them to a 53-51 record, 3.5 games out of the NL Central and just three games back of the final NL Wild Card spot. Per Fangraphs, the club’s playoff odds have shot from just 6% on July 17 all the way up to 31.7% today.
Given this rapid turn of the club’s fortunes, the club has decided not to move outfielder Cody Bellinger ahead of Tuesday’s deadline, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN. The Cubs’ decision takes the best available rental bat off the market, furthering limiting options for clubs looking to upgrade their offense amid a thin market for position players. Per Rogers, the Cubs figure to shift their focus to buying in the coming days, with bullpen help as a particular area of focus for the club.
Bellinger has been everything the Cubs could have reasonably hoped for in signing him to a one-year deal this past offseason. The 27-year-old former MVP has bounced back in a huge way from his injury-marred seasons of the past two years, posting a fantastic .315/.368/.540 slash line in 310 plate appearances for Chicago this season while playing quality defense both in center field and at first base. He’s striking out just 16.1% of the time, a career-best mark, and his ISO of .225, while still a far cry from the .274 figure of his first four seasons, is nonetheless a major improvement over the .162 figure he posted during his last two seasons in LA.
While Bellinger’s performance hasn’t been entirely supported by more advanced metrics this season, as evidenced by his .381 wOBA greatly outstripping his .328 xwOBA, even his underlying performance has been that of a clearly above-average regular. In retaining their star outfielder, the club will have the option to extend him a Qualifying Offer following the 2023 campaign, an option they appear all but certain to take, barring a major injury change the trajectory of Bellinger’s free agency. Should the Cubs extend him a QO, they’ll receive draft pick compensation in the event that he signs elsewhere this offseason, as they did with catcher Willson Contreras this past offseason.
MLBTR’s Anthony Franco examined the best possible matches in a Bellinger trade earlier this month, highlighting the Astros, Giants, and Yankees as the best fits in the process. Those clubs and others who planned to pursue Bellinger’s services will now have to look elsewhere to upgrade their outfield. Tommy Pham and Mark Canha of the Mets, Lane Thomas of the Nationals, and Dylan Carlson of the Cardinals are among the top options available. That being said, only Pham is a rental option among that group, with the rest presumably coming at a higher acquisition cost thanks to their additional years of control.
With Bellinger now off the market, it remains to be seen whether the Cubs will adopt a similar course of action regarding right-hander Marcus Stroman. The situation regarding the veteran right-hander has gotten plenty of attention in recent weeks given Stroman’s public desire for a long-term extension in Chicago and the Cubs’ disinclination to discuss such an arrangement.
While it’s possible the Cubs’ stance on extending Stroman has changed following the club’s recent hot stretch, it’s also possible that Stroman’s recent performance could present a new obstacle in any negotiations. While the righty sports a solid 3.51 ERA and 3.60 FIP across 22 starts this season, Stroman’s past six starts have seen those figures balloon up from 2.28 and 3.36, respectively, due to the 32-year-old hurler allowing a whopping 28 runs (24 earned) in 27 innings of work since his start on June 25 in London.
That the Cubs are turning their attention to the bullpen is hardly a surprise. The club has gotten excellent production out of Stroman, Justin Steele, and Kyle Hendricks at the front of their rotation, while Drew Smyly has proven to be a serviceable back-end starter over the past two seasons. Jameson Taillon has struggled mightily this season, with a 5.46 ERA in 18 starts, but he’s in just the first year of a four-year, $68MM contract and has pitched to a 1.78 ERA over his past five starts, making it unlikely the club would spend prospect capital to remove the veteran hurler from their rotation.
That leaves the bullpen as a much clearer place to upgrade, as the Cubs sport a middle-of-the-pack 4.05 bullpen ERA entering play today. Right-handers Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather, and Mark Leiter Jr. have all put up solid seasons, with Alzolay in particular impressing as the club’s closer. Still, it’s easy to see how the club could benefit from a steady veteran option such as Paul Sewald of the Mariners or Scott Barlow of the Royals. Those two arms in particular come with an additional year of team control, which could be particularly valuable to a team at the beginning of a new competitive window like Chicago.
While Rogers doesn’t indicate the Cubs are expected to add at the position, first base has been something of a disaster for the Cubs this season. Bellinger’s positional flexibility and a surprisingly solid season from fourth outfielder Mike Tauchman have helped to patch up the issue, but significant struggles from youngster Matt Mervis and veteran Trey Mancini have left the club with a 97 wRC+ at the position even after factoring in Bellinger’s contributions. C.J. Cron of the Rockies, Jeimer Candelario of the Nationals and Adam Duvall of the Red Sox are trade candidates who the Cubs could turn to at the position should they pursue an upgrade.
Cardinals Rumors: Montgomery, Flaherty, Bullpen, Outfield
The Cardinals are perhaps the most intriguing seller of this trade deadline. The preseason favorite for the NL Central expected to build upon a 93-win campaign in 2022, the team has failed to live up to expectations with a brutal 46-60 record that leaves them in last place in the division and ahead of only the Rockies and Nationals in the NL. With the club’s eyes turned toward the future, speculation has run rampant regarding many of the club’s interesting pieces, both those who are set to hit free agency after the season and those who are under team control longer-term.
Despite their status as the league’s premiere seller, the Cardinals have largely been quiet to this point with the trade deadline just over 48 hours away. While reports earlier in the week hinted at the possibility of a blockbuster involving third baseman Nolan Arenado, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak firmly shut those rumors down yesterday. While Arenado may not be on the move, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently discussed a bevy of other rumors regarding the club’s options ahead of the trade deadline.
Most clearly positioned to move over the next two days are the club’s duo of mid-rotation rental starters: left-hander Jordan Montgomery and right-hander Jack Flaherty. Goold notes that both players, along with closer Jordan Hicks, are generating interest throughout the league, though the returns on each of those players, if traded by themselves, would reportedly not fit the mold of the Cardinals’ preferred return: controllable, major-league ready starting pitching.
That’s hardly a surprise, given controllable starters are typically regarded as some of the most valuable commodities in the sport. Given this, Goold indicates that the club could get creative and pair rental players with younger, controllable pieces would yield their desired return. In particular, Goold name-checks outfielders Alec Burleson and Dylan Carlson alongside relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Helsley as longer-term pieces who could be moved. In terms of potential Cardinals targets, Goold references both Yankees prospect Clayton Beeter and Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, though Goold cautions that Gilbert would require a “high-ceiling return.”
Recent reporting had previously indicated trade interest in Burleson from multiple clubs, and Goold reaffirms the Yankees’ previously reported interest in Carlson. Goold adds that, in addition to Carlson, the Yankees have interest in Hicks, who has also drawn interest from the Rangers. Additionally, Goold notes that the market for Flaherty and Montgomery includes the Marlins, who have scouted Flaherty in person this trade season, while the Rays are noted to have interest in St. Louis’s available pitchers more generally.
While Miami is seemingly focused on Flaherty among the club’s duo of rental starters, Jon Morosi of MLBNetwork reported last night that talks surrounding Montgomery were “gaining momentum” and that a deal was becoming increasingly likely. While Morosi didn’t specify which team the Cardinals were discussing Montgomery with, he noted that both the Diamondbacks and Orioles have engaged in discussions with St. Louis in recent days.
Rangers Interested In Further Pitching Additions
Even after acquiring future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer in a blockbuster deal with the Mets last night, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand indicates the Rangers are not done adding to their pitching staff. Texas is reportedly looking to add a reliever or two or their relief corps and are also interested in adding to the bottom of the rotation.
An additional starting option would certainly make sense for Texas. While Nathan Eovaldi (2.69 ERA in 19 starts) and Scherzer create a strong top 2 at the front of the rotation, southpaws Martin Perez and Andrew Heaney have combined for a concerning 4.81 ERA in 40 starts this season. Righties Dane Dunning and Jon Gray both have stronger numbers for the season, Gray has posted a 6.49 ERA in his past seven starts while Dunning’s best work this season has come as a member of the bullpen.
While Feinsand doesn’t connect specific names to the Rangers, Justin McWilliams of the Boston Globe notes that the club has been scouting Red Sox left-hander James Paxton. Paxton, 34, came into the season with a 6.65 ERA in 21 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2020 season. He dealt with back and forearm issues towards the end of his tenure with the Yankees before requiring Tommy John surgery in 2021. Separate injuries, including a late-season hamstring strain, slowed his rehab process and prevented him from returning to the mound with Boston in 2022.
Since making a healthy return to the mound in the middle of May this season, however, Paxton has looked like a quality, playoff-caliber starter. In 70 innings of work across 13 starts this season, Paxton has posted a 3.34 ERA that’s 40% better than league average by measure of ERA+ with a 3.61 FIP. His 28.4% strikeout rate and 7.1% walk rate are both a touch better than his career norms and while his .269 BABIP is noticeably lower than his career .302 figure, Paxton would be a significant upgrade to Texas’s rotation, or that of virtually any contender.
Of course, it’s an open question as to whether or not the Red Sox would actually move Paxton ahead of Tuesday’s deadline. After all, Boston sports a solid 56-48 record. While that puts them in fourth place in the AL East and seven games back of the division lead, they’re just 2.5 games out of a Wild Card spot even with the likes of Trevor Story, Chris Sale, and Tanner Houck on the injured list.
While the Red Sox have already made one “sell-side” trade so far this July, last week’s deal that sent utilityman Enrique Hernandez to the Dodgers doesn’t seem particularly indicative of the club’s future plans. After all, the trade came in the midst of a brutal season on Hernandez’s part and at a time when the Red Sox are flush deep with middle infield options: Yu Chang, Christian Arroyo, and Pablo Reyes are all on the roster with Justin Turner also chipping in at second base and Story nearing a return to action.
Should Paxton wind up unavailable, there’s still plenty of other options for the Rangers to consider in looking to upgrade their pitching staff. Michael Lorenzen, Mike Clevinger, and Jack Flaherty are among the starters who seem likely to move, to say nothing of the possibility that the Padres or Cubs opt to sell and dangle an arm like Blake Snell or Marcus Stroman. As for relief options, right-handers Jordan Hicks, Scott Barlow, Chris Stratton, and Paul Sewald all appear in the top 15 of MLBTR’s most recent Top 50 Trade Candidates list. So too does relief ace Josh Hader, though his availability is contingent on San Diego opting to sell just as Snell’s is.
The Opener: Trades, Giolito, Freeland
As we head into the final weekend before the trade deadline, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Trade season continues:
With trade season in full swing, the deals and rumors kept coming yesterday, highlighted by a pair of intradivision swaps: the Pirates dealt first baseman Carlos Santana to the NL Central-leading Brewers while the Mets officially began their selloff by shipping closer David Robertson to the Marlins. A pair of big names also entered the rumor mill yesterday, as reports surfaced that the Padres are willing to listen to offers on superstar Juan Soto and the Dodgers have discussed a deal for third baseman Nolan Arenado with the Cardinals. And, while it at one point looked like the Cards might extend closer Jordan Hicks rather than trade him, talks on a new contract have apparently not progressed. With just four days until the deadline on August 1, who will be traded next?
2. Giolito to make Angels debut:
After being dealt to the west coast alongside relief arm Reynaldo Lopez in exchange for two prospects, right-hander Lucas Giolito is poised to make his first start as a member of the Angels this evening. He’ll take the mound against Blue Jays ace Kevin Gausman to kick off a series that could have a major impact on the state of the AL Wild Card race. The Blue Jays currently hold the third and final spot with a 57-46 record that puts them three games ahead of Anaheim prior to their three-game set. The outcome of this series could be impactful not only for the Blue Jays and Angels, but also for the Red Sox and Yankees. Both clubs sit between Toronto and Anaheim in the standings, 1.5 games and 2.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot, respectively.
3. Freeland to return:
Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list today to take the ball in this evening’s start against the A’s at Coors Field. Freeland made his major league debut in 2017 and posted a pair of excellent seasons to kick off his major league career, with a 3.39 ERA (143 ERA+) and 4.06 FIP in 358 1/3 innings. In the following years, however, he’s had the look of a back-of-the-rotation arm rather than a clear playoff-caliber rotation piece, with an exactly league average ERA+ of 100 since the start of the 2019 season. This season, Freeland sports a 4.72 ERA (107 ERA+) in 19 starts for the Rockies. His return should bring some stability to a Rockies rotation that currently includes Austin Gomber, Chase Anderson, and Peter Lambert.
The Opener: Trades, Rays, Cubs
On the heels of trade season kicking into high gear last night, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Will more deals be swung today?
We saw trade season kick off in earnest yesterday as the Marlins and Twins swapped right-handers Dylan Floro and Jorge Lopez, the Dodgers and Guardians swapped righty Noah Syndergaard and infielder Amed Rosario, and the Angels clearly declared themselves buyers by taking Shohei Ohtani off the market just hours before swinging a deal for right-handers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez in the biggest trade of the year so far. With just five days until the trade deadline on Aug. 1, more deals could be announced as soon as today. Recent reports have indicated that infielder Jeimer Candelario is on the Angels’ radar. The White Sox were discussing righty Lance Lynn with multiple clubs yesterday and seem certain to deal him after the Giolito/Lopez swap. A reunion between the Dodgers and right-hander Joe Kelly has also been discussed.
2. Eflin MRI:
Rays righty Zach Eflin exited yesterday’s start after just four innings and went for an immediate MRI on his left knee after experiencing discomfort during a rocky outing (five runs in those four frames). Eflin, who inked a three-year deal worth $40MM in Tampa Bay over the winter, entered yesterday’s outing with a 3.36 ERA on the season and has been one of the team’s most consistent arms. However, he has chronic knee issues that have plagued him dating back to his amateur days. The right-hander had surgery on both knees in 2016 and underwent a second right knee procedure in 2021.
The Rays were already on the lookout for rotation help after losing Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen for the season. Any absence for Eflin would only accelerate their bid to acquire starting pitching. They were among the teams talking to the White Sox about Lynn as recently as yesterday, and they’ve previously been linked to Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, among others. The Rays are off today, so an update on Eflin isn’t a guarantee, but his status will be pivotal with regard to their level of aggression as the deadline looms.
3. Cubs’ last stand?
Despite being considered a likely seller by much of the baseball world for much of the season to this point, the Cubs are reportedly still evaluating their approach to the trade deadline on August 1. Muddying the waters on the decision for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer is the club’s play in recent weeks, as the Cubs have won seven of their last eight, making them 8-4 since the All Star break and 12-9 in July. In the event the club decides to sell, Chicago has some of the most interesting rentals on the market this July in right-hander Marcus Stroman and center fielder Cody Bellinger.
The Cubs are six games back of the division lead and 4.5 games back of a crowded NL Wild Card race. That being said, they also sport the NL Central’s only positive run differential and could put themselves back over .500 for the first time since May with a series win in St. Louis this weekend. Lefty Justin Steele takes the mound for the club against tonight opposite Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas for the first game of a four-game set that will take the clubs into deadline day, when Hoyer and his front office will have to make a decision on the Cubs’ course of action.
The Opener: Hicks, Song, Astros
With just six days until the trade deadline, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Will the Cardinals and Hicks hammer out an extension?
The Cardinals are one of this trade deadline’s few clear sellers with multiple interesting rental options for buyers to pursue. That group of players includes right-hander Jordan Hicks, though Katie Woo of The Athletic indicated that Hicks ultimately may not move at all. The sides are reportedly having discussion regarding a multi-year contract extension that would keep Hicks in St. Louis long-term. While the Cardinals would be expected to move Hicks before the deadline if an extension doesn’t come together, Woo notes that there’s optimism a deal could be done as soon as today. In the event that Hicks signs, the Cardinals would still have a pair of rental relievers to market in Chris Stratton and Drew VerHagen, though neither would be expected to command a return similar to Hicks, who sports a 2.25 ERA and 1.92 FIP dating all the way back to mid-April.
2. Song’s final rehab appearance:
Phillies right-hander Noah Song is expected to throw two innings in a final rehab start for the club’s Triple-A affiliate today, per MLB.com. Song, 26, did not pitch professionally from 2020-2022 due to his service as an officer in the US Navy. The Phillies selected him in the Rule 5 Draft this past offseason anyhow due to his impressive stuff and strong numbers in the minors prior to his military service, giving him an opportunity to reach the big leagues for the first time in his career. That was derailed by a back issue that sent Song to the 60-day IL to open the season. The maximum time for Song’s minor league rehab assignment is set to expire later this week, meaning the Phillies will have to decide whether to add him to the active roster or return him to the Red Sox organization. In 9 2/3 innings of work in the minors this year, Song sports a 3.72 ERA and 29.8% strikeout rate.
3. Astros getting healthy, gaining on Rangers:
After winning the first two games of their current three-game set against the Rangers, the Astros head into the series finale tonight just one game back of their division-leading rivals. A win tonight would put the clubs in a tie for first place in the AL West, and Houston appears likely to get reinforcements from the injured list ahead of tonight’s game, which will begin at 7:10pm CT. Both Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve could be activated from the IL today, adding a pair of high-end bats to an Astros lineup that ranks just ninth in the AL with a roughly league average 101 wRC+ since losing Altuve to injury earlier in the month. Alvarez has hitter, slashing .277/.388/.589 (166 wRC+) with 17 homers in 242 plate appearances this season. Altuve has been limited to just 32 games this year due to injuries but has still managed to slash .261/.374/.479 — good for a wRC+ of 138.
Giants To Promote Marco Luciano
The Giants are planning promote top infield prospect Marco Luciano prior to tonight’s game against the A’s, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area. Luciano is already on the 40-man roster, so a corresponding move will only be needed to add him to the club’s active roster.
Luciano, 21, has long been considered one of the game’s top prospects. He was a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport as recently as last year, and is currently considered a consensus top-50 prospect across most services. Scouts are enamored with Luciano’s power potential and bat speed, but have long questioned his hit tool due to an elevated strikeout rate throughout his minor league career. While Luciano’s defense previously raised questions regarding his ability to stick in the infield long-term, with many projecting a move to the outfield in his future, a strong 2023 campaign on that side of the ball has largely alleviated those concerns, indicating he should at least be able to stick at third base if not his native position of shortstop.
Luciano has struggled to stay on the field in recent years due to back troubles, missing ten weeks in 2022 due to the issue and another month this year. When healthy, however, he’s produced at the plate with a .263/.339/.549 slash line with a 121 wRC+ in 57 games at the High-A level last season and a Double-A slash line of .228/.339/.450, good for a wRC+ of 114 in 56 games this year. Luciano’s strikeout rate rose more than 7 points this season, nearly reaching 30% at Double-A, though the youngster managed to mostly make up for the additional whiffs with a massive 14.9% walk rate.
Luciano’s performance at Double-A recently earned him a promotion to the Triple-A level, where he’s slashed an excellent .292/.370/.625 that’s good for a wRC+ of 130 even in the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League. The Giants, who have struggled to a 9-11 record in July and just snapped a six-game losing streak last night, seemingly view Luciano as a potential spark who can help cover for the injured Thairo Estrada and Brandon Crawford up the middle, roles that currently fall to struggling youngsters Casey Schmitt and Brett Wisely.