Red Sox Rumors

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/5/18

By Steve Adams | January 5, 2018 at 8:53pm CDT

Here are Friday’s minor moves from around the game…

The Rangers have inked a minor-league pact with right-hander Brandon Cumpton, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning news (Twitter link). Arm troubles have limited the 29-year-old of late, but he did return to professional action in 2017 after a two-year hiatus. Over 37 1/3 innings, Cumpton pitched to a 3.86 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9.
As Cumpton leaves the Pirates organization, two other right-handers are on their way in, according to John Dreker of Pirates Prospects. Tyler Jones and Bo Schultz have each joined the Bucs on minor-league arrangements, per the report. The former will be looking to crack the majors for the first time. He has often produced quality strikeout rates in the upper minors but only managed a 4.38 ERA in 63 2/3 innings at Triple-A last year with the Yankees organization. As for Schultz, the former Blue Jays reliever will be looking to return from Tommy John surgery. Schultz turned in a useful 2015 season but faltered in the ensuing season — he worked to a 5.51 ERA in his 16 1/3 MLB innings — before going under the knife.
Righty William Cuevas will join the Red Sox organization on a minor-league pact, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets. The 27-year-old has spent the bulk of his career in the Boston organization but played elsewhere in 2017. He worked to a 4.85 ERA in 104 Triple-A frames in 2017, with 7.0 K/9 against 3.7 BB/9. Cuevas has twice cracked the majors, but only briefly.
Yet another right-handed hurler, Preston Guilmet, is heading to the Cardinals on a minors deal, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. He’ll get a spring invite and can earn at a $600K rate in the majors. The 30-year-old Guilmet has seen parts of three seasons in the majors but only has 23 career innings at the game’s highest level. He has put up some interesting results of late, though, posting a 2.77 ERA with 10.8 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 in 68 1/3 Triple-A frames in 2016 before heading to Japan and running a 3.62 ERA with 9.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in his 54 2/3 innings for the Yakult Swallows (over four starts and 28 relief appearances).

Earlier Updates

The Tigers have agreed to a minor league deal with former Cardinals shortstop Pete Kozma, reports SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (on Twitter). Kozma, 30 in April, split the 2017 season between the Rangers and Yankees organizations and logged 51 plate appearances in the Majors, though he batted just .111/.200/.178 in that small sample. Long considered an excellent defender with a light bat, Kozma is a career .215/.282/.285 hitter in parts of six MLB seasons but also comes with a career +11 Defensive Runs Saved mark and +9 Ultimate Zone Rating in 1450 innings at shortstop.
The Braves announced yesterday that right-handed reliever Luke Jackson cleared waivers and was sent outright to Triple-A Gwinnett. Once a well-regarded prospect in the Rangers system, the now-26-year-old Jackson posted an ERA north of 6.00 and walked 16 batters in 24 1/3 innings with Gwinnett last season. He actually performed better in the Majors, logging a 4.62 ERA in 50 1/3 frames, albeit with pedestrian averages of 5.9 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 with a 45.2 percent grounder rate. Jackson does have a history of missing bats in the upper minors and did average 94.7 mph on his heater last year while running up a 10.2 percent swinging-strike rate, so there’s some hope that he could yet figure things out.

Red Sox Avoid Arbitration With Steven Wright

By Jeff Todd | January 5, 2018 at 7:07pm CDT

The Red Sox have avoided arbitration with right-hander Steven Wright, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Wright is slated to earn a $1.1MM salary in his first season of eligibility.

That payday slots in just below the $1.2MM that MLBTR had projected Wright to earn. The knuckler seems to be the odds-on favorite to earn the fifth starter’s role for the Red Sox, barring a surprise outside acquisition.

First, though, he’ll have to show he’s healthy and back in form. Wright’s 2017 season was cut short by knee issues that ultimately required surgery. He ended up taking the ball only five times on the year.

Quite different concerns arose earlier in the offseason when Wright was arrested following a domestic dispute (though there’s no indication it ever became physical). While the league is still investigating the incident, the legal matter has been “retired.”

Boston will hope that Wright can return to something approach the quality he showed in 2016, when a breakout first half earned him an All-Star bid. In 156 2/3 innings over 24 starts that year, Wright worked to a 3.33 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.

AL East Notes: Bradley Jr., Yankees, Frazier, Orioles

By Steve Adams | January 5, 2018 at 12:33pm CDT

The Dodgers approached the Red Sox earlier this offseason about a trade that would’ve sent Yasiel Puig to Boston in exchange for Jackie Bradley Jr., reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The Sox, valuing Bradley’s elite glove and extra year of control (three years to Puig’s two), “quickly” declined the offer, and talks between the two sides never went beyond that stage. As Speier points out, however, the scenario is instructive when gauging the Red Sox’ valuation of Bradley, who is coming off a relatively disappointing season at the plate. Puig’s .263/.346/.487 slash and 28 homers dwarfed Bradley’s .245/.323/.402 output and 17 homers, but the Sox (who’ve been searching all offseason for an offensive upgrade), seemingly gave little consideration to the notion. Bradley’s name has been oft-speculated upon in various trade scenarios by fans and pundits alike, but it doesn’t seem as though the Boston brass views him in that light; president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski has said at multiple points this winter that he’s in no rush to deal Bradley, Speier adds.

More out of the AL East…

The Yankees checked back in with the Orioles on Manny Machado this week, per FanRag’s Jon Heyman, but the O’s have yet to receive an offer from any team that is close to what they’d hope to receive for Machado. The Yankees remain interested in Machado, though, believing that they have a legitimate chance to sign him long-term (even without an extension window being granted). The O’s reportedly want a pair of MLB-ready pitchers for Machado, though Heyman notes that third base prospect Miguel Andujar intrigues Baltimore to some degree. For now, Andujar is viewed as the Yankees’ starter at third base, though Heyman adds that the Yanks are exploring a number of avenues in the infield; in addition to Machado, they’ve shown interest in the Pirates’ Josh Harrison and are keeping tabs on the free-agent market in case Todd Frazier’s asking price drops to one year.
ESPN New York’s Andrew Marchand writes that the Yankees would indeed “love” to bring Frazier back into the mix, but the organization has some reservations about his asking price (both in dollars and years). At present, the Yanks are poised to head into the season with Andujar at third base and one of Ronald Torreyes, Gleyber Torres or Tyler Wade at second base. “We are currently set up to go this route, unless something presents itself between now and whenever that gives us a change of position,” GM Brian Cashman tells Marchand. Certainly, that suggests that Cashman & Co. are yet open to additions, and Marchand calls it a “pretty good bet” that the Yankees will add an infielder to the mix before the offseason concludes.
“Too many people” are assuming that Chance Sisco is a lock to open the year as the Orioles’ starting catcher, reports MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. (I’m guilty as charged on that front, having referenced him as the likely starter on multiple occasions.) Per Kubatko, 26-year-old Austin Wynns has a “legitimate” chance to break camp with the team thanks largely to his defensive prowess. If that happens, then the O’s would seemingly take Wynns and Caleb Joseph north to open the year while giving Sisco additional development time in Triple-A Norfolk. The O’s are also still in the market for a veteran catcher, which could prove to be either a starting-caliber option or a backup to vie for a spot alongside Sisco and Wynns. Kubatko notes that some in the organization are intrigued by the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, though it’s difficult to imagine the O’s coming up with the type of package that’d beat the field for Realmuto when Miami has been targeting pitching prospects in other trades.

Arbitration Breakdown: Mookie Betts

By Matt Swartz | January 5, 2018 at 9:42am CDT

Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Last night, we kicked off the series with Manny Machado’s arbitration breakdown. Full 2018 projected arbitration salaries for every player are also available here at MLBTR.

Mookie Betts brings a rare combination of speed and power to his first year of arbitration eligibility, making his case a tricky one to project. The model places him at $8.2 million, which seems likely to be too high. The model tends to notice that having solid numbers in multiple statistical categories can aggregate up to a larger effect than the sum of its parts, but this can also lead to overly aggressive projections in some cases. With Betts entering arbitration with the rare combination of 78 career home runs and 80 stolen bases thus far in his young career, the arbitration model may exaggerate that combined effect.

The last time a player entered arbitration with both 60 homers and 60 steals in his career was 2010, when Matt Kemp did it. Hanley Ramirez also did in 2009. However, both signed multi-year deals without exchanging arbitration figures, so they may not be relevant comparables when examining Betts. For what it’s worth, they got $4MM and $5.55MM, respectively, in their first years as part of their multi-year deals. However, this is of limited value, especially given how stale these salaries are.

No one in the past five years with 70 career home runs going into arbitration has had more than 32 stolen bases, and no one in the past five years with 70 career stolen bases going into arbitration has had more than 59 home runs. The latter player was Drew Stubbs, but his .213 platform average and .241 career average, along with just 14 of those home runs coming in his platform season, combine to make him a poor comparable. His $2.83MM salary is well short of where Betts will end up.

If we want to look only at platform year stats, when Betts had 24 home runs and 26 stolen bases, Manny Machado seems like a plausible comparable. He had 35 homers and swiped 20 bases when entering arbitration for the first time two years ago, leading to a $5MM salary. However, he only had 10 stolen bases in his career prior to his platform season, so Betts could argue that he should top this. He also has 10 more career home runs than Machado had at the time and a higher career average (.292 versus .281). Of course, his platform year average of .264 is well short of Machado’s .286. I could see the Red Sox pushing down on his Betts’ salary by suggesting Machado as a comparable.

To get anywhere near the $8.2MM projection, Betts’ agents will need to hit on the fact that Betts’ 2016 performance nearly won him an MVP Award. Players with that type of hardware, such as Buster Posey ($8MM in 2013) and Ryan Howard ($10MM in 2008) stand atop the list of highest first year arbitration salaries. Betts did get 9 of 28 first place votes, with the other 19 and the award itself going to Mike Trout. Admittedly, however, I think such an argument would be a tough sell.

In all likelihood, Betts end up closer to Machado’s $5MM, but somewhat extra for the stronger career totals. I would guess the model falls a couple million short in this instance, as Betts ends up with a first-time arbitration salary around $6MM.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/2/18

By Jeff Todd | January 2, 2018 at 11:02pm CDT

We’ll track the day’s minor moves in this post:

The Reds have reached a minor league agreement with utilityman Phil Gosselin, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation reports (Twitter link). The 29-year-old Gosselin divided last season between the Pirates and Rangers organizations, hitting an ugly .146/.180/.188 over a small sample of big league PAs (50). While Gosselin was also ineffective at the Triple-A level (.260/.299/.326 in 292 PAs), he’s not far removed from a useful two-year showing in the majors. From 2015-16, Gosselin combined for 1.4 fWAR on the strength of a .280/.340/.411 line in 358 trips to the plate with the Braves and Diamondbacks.

Earlier updates:

The Phillies have agreed to a minor league contract with right-handed reliever Steve Geltz, Cotillo tweets. Geltz worked exclusively with the Dodgers’ Triple-A affiliate in 2017 and posted a 2.67 ERA, 9.67 K/9 against 4.00 BB/9 and a 37.1 percent groundball rate over 27 innings. The 30-year-old previously saw major league action with the Angels (2012) and Rays (2014-16). Across 104 1/3 big league frames, Geltz owns a 4.23 ERA to accompany 8.54 K/9, 3.71 BB/9 and a 28.8 percent grounder mark.
Infielder Ivan De Jesus Jr. is joining the Red Sox on a minor league deal, per Cotillo (Twitter link). De Jesus, 30, has past experience with the Boston organization, having been a member of it in 2012 and ’14. More recently, he spent last season with the Brewers’ Triple-A club and batted a robust .345/.407/.488 in 466 trips to the plate. He hasn’t been nearly as successful across 545 major league PAs with the Dodgers, Red Sox and Reds, having slashed .242/.303/.327.
The Cardinals have added backstop Steven Baron on a minors pact, according to MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter). (As she also notes, and we covered previously, the club also added catcher Francisco Pena.) Baron, 27, was the 33rd overall pick in the 2009 draft, but he has never hit much at all in the minors and has only minimal MLB experience. Still, he’ll represent another upper-level depth option for the Cards, who’ll become his first organization other than the Mariners. Baron spent most of 2017 at Triple-A, where he slashed .256/.339/.329 in 187 plate appearances.

East Notes: Yelich, Realmuto, Marlins, Machado, Sox, Orioles

By Connor Byrne and Jeff Todd | January 2, 2018 at 4:36pm CDT

The Marlins continue to discuss center fielder Christian Yelich and catcher J.T. Realmuto with other clubs, but there’s “nothing imminent” on the trade front, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears (Twitter link). Although the Marlins are in teardown mode, it would reportedly take a “huge overpay” for them to deal either Yelich or Realmuto, their two most valuable assets. The 26-year-old Yelich is controllable through 2022 on one of the majors’ most appealing contracts, while Realmuto (27 in March) is set to play his first of three arbitration-eligible campaigns in 2018. Kyle Downing of MLBTR examined Yelich, Realmuto and the rest of Miami’s trade candidates over the weekend.

More on the Fish and a couple other East Coast franchises:

Miami traded both Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna earlier this offseason, thus subtracting a pair of in-their-prime sluggers who combined for a whopping 96 home runs in 2017. Now, with those two in other uniforms, the organization is “looking for guys who can provide power in the middle of the lineup,” vice president of player development and scouting Gary Denbo told Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Unsurprisingly, though, the Marlins aren’t competing for high-level free agents who would serve as short-term upgrades, per Frisaro, who writes that “their vision is more long range.”
With the Red Sox still interested in acquiring Orioles third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado, Ian Browne of MLB.com weighs in on a potential trade between the AL East rivals. Browne senses that the Red Sox don’t want to trade either shortstop Xander Bogaerts or center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. this offseason, but he concedes that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the former head to Baltimore as part of a Machado deal. The Red Sox would be losing two years of Bogaerts for a single season of control over Machado. As such, if Boston acquires Machado, it would make an aggressive push to re-up the superstar in order to prevent him from leaving as a free agent next winter, Browne adds.
The Orioles still face a difficult path, all the more so given that the team will evidently be paying Zach Britton a full arbitration salary for what might be little more than a half season of work. Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun writes that, while the rotation market still hasn’t moved much, some of the arms from Baltimore’s potential target demographic are among those that have found new teams. Meanwhile, Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com considers the question of whether the team will look to make second baseman Jonathan Schoop a part of a new long-term core — and, if so, how much it might cost to get something done.

Free Agent Notes: Hosmer, JDM, Arrieta, Cards, Twins, Abad

By Jeff Todd | January 2, 2018 at 1:29pm CDT

In his column today on the molasses-slow free agent market, Bob Nightengale of USA Today drops a few nuggets of information. The Padres’ offer to free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer would promise him seven years, says Nightengale. Meanwhile, top open-market slugger J.D. Martinez is sitting on a five-year offer from the Red Sox. In other chatter, Nightengale suggests the Cubs could be willing to go as high as $110MM over four years to bring back Jake Arrieta. Of course, the teams and players just cited have likely known one another’s positions for some time now, and these stalemates have yet to be resolved. These details also fall in line with what has been reported previously about the respective situations, though they are surely interesting data points as we seek to divine when and how the free agent dam will finally break.

Quick Hits: Kimbrel, Royals, Free Agents

By Mark Polishuk | December 31, 2017 at 11:50am CDT

Jayson Stark’s “Strange But True Facts” column is an annual tradition for baseball fans, and Stark is here with the 2017 edition of unusual statistical and factual oddities from the past season. Highlights include Matt Chapman’s odd do-over on his first career MLB hit, Travis d’Arnaud’s 22-position game on August 16, and the All-Garcia starting outfield deployed by the White Sox on April 14.

Some more from around baseball…

Could Craig Kimbrel earn a $100MM free agent contract next offseason? WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford thinks it could happen, especially after Wade Davis’ three-year, $52MM deal with the Rockies established a new average annual value standard for a closer. Kimbrel turns 30 in May and is coming off one of his greatest seasons — a 1.43 ERA, 16.4 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 69 innings out of the Red Sox bullpen. Aroldis Chapman’s five-year, $86MM deal with the Yankees from last winter is the largest contract ever given to a relief pitcher, though Chapman signed that deal entering his age-29 season, whereas Kimbrel turns 30 in May. Kimbrel still stands a decent shot at topping Chapman’s mark, though cracking the $100MM threshold seems like a tall order.
The Royals went into the offseason hoping to re-sign maybe one of Eric Hosmer (their top choice), Lorenzo Cain, and Mike Moustakas, though the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd wonders if the team could re-assess its plans given the unexpectedly slow free agent market. All three players are still available as the calendar turns to January, and in the cases of Hosmer and Moustakas, they seem to be running short on viable landing spots. Re-signing any of those free agents, however, would cost the Royals compensation draft picks, which are valuable assets for a team that is looking at a rebuild. Dodd notes that K.C. was able to re-sign Alex Gordon when his free agent market proved to be quieter than expected, though given how Gordon has struggled over the last two years, the Royals probably aren’t thrilled with that comp.
One of the reasons behind the lack of free agent action could be that teams are simply more cautious about the risk of spending big on a veteran player, Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines. Of the 14 current players on free agent deals with a $20MM average annual value and worth more than $100MM in total, only Max Scherzer and Jon Lester seem like clear wins for their teams, while the other 12 players range from questionable investments to outright busts. Sherman proposes that players should be allowed to become free agents after just four years of service time, arguing that the current free agent setup is “a flawed system” that doesn’t properly compensate players through their prime years.

AL East Notes: Yankees, Red Sox, Machado

By Connor Byrne | December 30, 2017 at 2:45pm CDT

The latest from the American League East…

While the Yankees have been trying to trade for a starting pitcher recently, Joel Sherman of the New York Post argues that the infield should be a greater priority for the club. The Yankees have a full complement of starters on hand, after all, while they’ve lost second baseman Starlin Castro and the third base duo of Chase Headley and Todd Frazier since last season. With that in mind, Sherman runs down a host of veteran infielders the Yankees could add either via free agency or the trade market. Notably, Sherman senses that the Yankees have never been bullish on free agent infielder Brandon Phillips, which would seem to rule out one potential target. Sherman goes on to suggest that the Yankees have had questions about whether Athletics infielder Jed Lowrie has the temperament to play in New York. So, while Lowrie looks like a prime trade candidate, it doesn’t appear he’ll end up in the Bronx.
Rob Bradford of WEEI explains why the Red Sox’s interest in Orioles infielder Manny Machado is unlikely to lead to a deal, contending that the two sides don’t match up well in a trade. The Red Sox already have a quality shortstop in Xander Bogaerts, whom they could theoretically package with a pitcher(s) to land Machado, but that would perhaps be too risky on the team’s part. Machado is only under control for another season, while Bogaerts has two more years left. What’s more, the Red Sox don’t seem to have the high-level pitching to entice the Orioles, as Bradford notes that top prospects Jason Groome. Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata haven’t gotten past the Single-A level yet.
The Red Sox haven’t participated in the robust relief market this winter, and it’s likely to stay that way until they have an answer on free agent slugger J.D. Martinez’s future, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. If Martinez signs elsewhere, the Red Sox could use some of the money they were going to give him on relief help, observes Mastrodonato, who points out that their righty-heavy bullpen could use some balance. Tony Watson and Brian Duensing are among the top southpaw setup men currently without teams.

American League Notes: Machado, Indians, Orioles

By Jeff Todd | December 30, 2017 at 12:10am CDT

The Red Sox are “showing continued trade interest” in star Orioles infielder Manny Machado, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via Twitter). That said, it’s unclear just how strong a connection there may be between the division rivals. While not specifically referencing Morosi’s report, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com tweets that interest from Boston has been “overstated.” Overall, it’s hard to assess the current state of the Machado market; while a variety of organizations are no doubt still intrigued at the idea of a deal, there’s no real indication that there have been changes in the offers or the asking price.

Here’s more from the American League:

While the Indians have pushed their payroll upwards in recent years, Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal writes that the period of growth seems to be at an end. Despite attempting to re-sign Carlos Santana, it seems unlikely the organization will pursue any further major free agents after landing Yonder Alonso on a fairly modest two-year deal. Cleveland’s front office is obviously still looking to improve in the near-term, but sustainability is a key consideration as well.
Regardless of what happens with Machado, the Orioles are still in need of a lefty bat, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes. He explains that it still seems more likely the missing southpaw stick will arrive in the form of a corner outfielder. While the organization has engaged in “internal discussions” regarding Jon Jay, says Kubatko, it does not seem there’s real interest there. At this point, though, it does not seem as if there’s any real indication at all which way the O’s may go.

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