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2017 Arbitration Filing Numbers

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MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 152 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 36 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

Pirates Avoid Arbitration With Drew Hutchison, Jared Hughes

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9:04pm: The Bucs have also knocked out their case with fellow righty Jared Hughes, Heyman adds on Twitter. He secures a $2.825MM deal that lands over his $2.5MM projection. The 31-year-old, eligible for the second time, didn’t quite maintain his output from his prior two seasons but ended the 2016 season with a strong 3.03 ERA over 59 1/3 innings with 5.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 to go with a 57.9% groundball rate.

7:47pm: The Pirates have avoided arbitration with righty Drew Hutchison, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. He’s set to earn $2.3MM.

That figure comes in just over the $2.2MM salary that MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected Hutchison to take down in his second season of arbitration eligibility. Though Hutchison went through the process last year with the Blue Jays, earning $2.2MM, he did not accrue enough service time to pass four total years of MLB service, so he’ll earn only a nominal raise and remain controllable through 2019.

Pittsburgh acquired Hutchison last summer in the trade-deadline deal that sent Francisco Liriano and prospects to Toronto. Hutchison ended up throwing just 24 major league frames in 2016, working to a 5.25 ERA. Though he posted a 22:7 K/BB ratio, he was also tagged for six home runs. Hutchison spent much of the year at the Triple-A level, where he recorded a 3.59 ERA across 138 innings with 9.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/9/17

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Some minor moves from around baseball to kick off the week…

  • KBO’s Lotte Giants have re-signed left-hander Brooks Raley and signed second baseman/third baseman Andy Burns out of the Blue Jays organization, per Jee-ho Yoo of Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. Raley will receive $850K to return for his third season, while Burns will be venturing overseas for the first time in his career. Raley, 28, pitched 38 1/3 innings with the Cubs from 2012-13 and spent time in the Twins and Angels organizations after being claimed off waivers following that stint. Raley has turned in a 4.06 ERA while averaging 175 innings, 7.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in the past two seasons with Lotte. As for Burns, the 26-year-old made his MLB debut last season but tallied just seven plate appearances in Toronto. He’s a career .263/.320/.363 hitter in 237 contests at the Triple-A level.
  • The Pirates announced a list of non-roster invites this morning, which includes former Rockies catcher Jackson Williams. The 30-year-old saw brief action with the Rox from 2014-15 (30 plate appearances) and has batted .232/.303/.356 in just over 1200 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s halted 36 percent of stolen base attempts against him in his minor league career and draws average to slightly below-average marks in terms of pitch framing, per Baseball Prospectus.
  • Former Cardinals/White Sox right-hander Maikel Cleto has signed a minors pact with the Cubs, as his representatives at Jackson Management Group noted, on Twitter. The hard-throwing 27-year-old’s last MLB work came with the ChiSox in 2014 and resulted in a 4.60 ERA with 9.8 K/9 against an unsightly 7.1 BB/9. Cleto averaged 97.1 mph on his fastball that year and doesn’t have difficulty missing bats (10.1 K/9 in his Triple-A career), but walks have been a persistent issue for him in the Majors and in the minors. He split the 2016 season between the Mexican League and the Braves organization. In 21 innings with Atlanta’s Triple-A affiliate, he posted a 2.14 ERA with 31 strikeouts against 13 walks.

Pirates, Jordy Mercer Have Discussed Extension

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The Pirates and shortstop Jordy Mercer have discussed a contract extension, though an agreement isn’t imminent, as Rum Bunter first reported and Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review confirmed. The two sides have had “a little, but not a lot of talk,” a source told Biertempfel.

Mercer, a client of the Legacy Agency, is coming off a season in which he tied a career high in games played (149) and logged a personal-best 584 plate appearances. The 30-year-old wasn’t particularly effective, though, having hit a modest .256/.328/.374 (closely in line with his .257/.313/.377 lifetime mark) with 11 home runs and one stolen base. Mercer also didn’t rate well in the field, which was abnormal relative to the previous two years, as he finished toward the bottom of the majors at his position in Defensive Runs Saved (minus-9) and Ultimate Zone Rating (minus-8.4).

Mercer, who’s under control through the 2018 campaign, is scheduled to make his second trip through arbitration later this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $4MM arbitration award for Mercer, but it might not come to that. Pittsburgh doled out three extensions to regulars last year and could hand Mercer what should be an inexpensive deal early in 2017.

Cafardo’s Latest: Cutch, Pirates, Royals, Braves

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The Pirates are reportedly unlikely to trade center fielder Andrew McCutchen, whom they heavily shopped at last month’s Winter Meetings, but teams are still trying to acquire him, a major league source told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Toronto is the latest reported team to show interest in McCutchen, whom the Bucs are only willing to deal if they receive major league-ready talent in return. The 30-year-old is coming off the worst season of his career, having gone backward at the plate, in the field and on the base paths, but he still carries a resoundingly successful track record and an affordable contract (two years, $28.5MM, including a $14.5MM club option for 2018). Considering those factors, it’s not surprising that teams continue to pursue the longtime face of the Pittsburgh franchise.

More inside info from Cafardo:

  • Free agent second baseman/third baseman Aaron Hill is on the radar of a few teams, and Atlanta and Kansas City could be among them, per Cafardo. Hill, 34, spent last season between Milwaukee and Boston, with which he combined to hit .262/.336/.378 with 10 home runs in 429 plate appearances. It’s debatable whether Hill would fit in Atlanta, which already seems to have a capable second base platoon on hand with Jace Peterson and Sean Rodriguez, not to mention a third baseman with a similar offensive profile to Hill in Adonis Garcia. Both Hill and Garcia have hit southpaw pitchers better than right-handers in their careers, so it might behoove Atlanta to instead find a lefty-swinging complement to Garcia. KC, meanwhile, already has multiple third base options – Mike Moustakas and Cheslor Cuthbert – and a few second base candidates in Whit Merrifield, Raul Mondesi, Christian Colon and Cuthbert.
  • Speaking of the Braves and Royals, they are interested in free agent third baseman/first baseman Trevor Plouffe, who has been available since the Twins outrighted him in November. Boston and Oakland are also in on the 30-year-old Plouffe, a steady contributor from 2014-15 who batted an underwhelming .260/.303/.420 with 12 homers in 344 PAs last season. Like Hill, Plouffe has had more success versus lefties (.268/.344/.465) than righties (.239/.294/.403) during his career.
  • To finish off a Royals-heavy set of notes, it’s still possible they’ll trade one of Moustakas, first baseman Eric Hosmer or outfielder Lorenzo Cain – all contract-year players – before the season, per Cafardo. A willingness to deal Moustakas or Hosmer, particularly the former, would somewhat explain Kansas City’s interest in Hill and Plouffe. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal previouly reported that Hosmer is unlikely to go anywhere prior to the season, though, and KC already subtracted a key outfielder Friday when it shipped Jarrod Dyson to Seattle. Speculatively, that could impact whether the Royals would also part with Cain, who’s due $11MM next season.

Central Notes: Encarnacion, Dozier, Pirates

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Agent Paul Kinzer said at this week’s press conference to introduce Edwin Encarnacion in Cleveland that the attendance bonuses that are built into the contract — worth upwards of $1MM per season, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman — helped push the Indians’ offer over the top, writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. However, it may be tough to meet those figures, as Hoynes points out that Cleveland hasn’t topped two million fans (the minimum threshold for Encarnacion to begin receiving incentives) since 2008 and haven’t drawn three million fans in a season since 2001. That type of clause is rare enough, Kinzer notes, that Cleveland president of baseball ops Chris Antonetti had to call the commissioner’s office just to see if the Indians would even be allowed to include such an incentive in the contract. While it’s unlikely that Encarnacion alone will drive the Indians’ attendance to those levels, MLB.com’ Jordan Bastian tweets that Cleveland has sold more than $1MM worth of season tickets since word of the agreement with Encarnacion broke — a 50 percent increase in new sales relative to last year’s offseason. A couple more notes on the Central divisions:

  • Though this week’s report that Brandon Phillips nixed a trade to the Braves (via FOX’s Ken Rosenthal) lends some credence to recent connections between Atlanta and Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press circled back with a source that characterized a Dozier-to-Atlanta deal as a “long shot” (Twitter link). It continues to appear as if the Dodgers are the only team that currently has a strong enough need to consider meeting Minnesota’s price for its excellent second baseman.
  • Fastball velocity has increased throughout the game in the past several seasons, but it’s increased even faster within the Pirates organization during that time, Travis Sawchik of FanGraphs writes. The Bucs finished first in fastball velocity in 2015 (94.0 MPH) and second in 2016 (93.4 MPH). A key trait of many of the reclamation pitchers the Pirates have used in recent years — from starters like A.J. Burnett, Edinson Volquez and Francisco Liriano to relievers like Arquimedes Caminero, Neftali Feliz and John Holdzkom — is that they possess above-average velocity, as Sawchik points out. Bucs GM Neal Huntington notes that velocity gives pitchers more cushion for their mistakes, in that a poorly located pitch thrown in the mid-90s is less likely to yield poor results than a poorly located pitched thrown at a more modest radar reading. Now that other teams are also valuing velocity among free-agent pitchers, the Pirates are looking to develop hard-throwing pitchers of their own, like Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon and Chad Kuhl.

Arbitration Breakdown: Cole, Odorizzi, McHugh, Fiers

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

As I discussed in my write-up on Jacob deGrom and Carlos Martinez, it has been difficult for starting pitchers to top Dontrelle Willis’ arbitration salary of $4.35MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility back in 2006. Dallas Keuchel finally broke that record last year, but otherwise many pitchers have fallen short. In many cases, pitchers have gotten close only to sign multi-year deals to remove themselves from the list of comparables, and other times they have settled for numbers at or just short of Willis’ old record.

My model has trouble with these symbolic barriers, and I have written many articles about why pitchers projected to earn slightly more than $4.35MM would earn slightly less. Mathematical modeling is a science, but it does not pick up on the psychological nuances of a precedent being broken. It remains to be seen whether Keuchel’s new record makes it easier for pitchers to out-earn Willis—and Carlos Martinez this year could be a great case. However, despite Gerrit Cole of the Pirates, Jake Odorizzi of the Rays, and Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers of the Astros all projecting near the $4.35 mark—Odorizzi and McHugh are projected slightly above it—I suspect all four will earn slightly less than their projections because of this barrier.

All four of Cole, Odorizzi, McHugh, and Fiers have at least 30 career wins, 500 career innings, 400 career strikeouts, and 100 platform year innings. All of them also have relatively average ERAs in the 3’s or 4’s. None won the Cy Young Award last year. There are only four such pitchers who met these criteria to receive one-year arbitration deals as first-year starting pitchers in the last three years, and all four earned in a tight range of $3.63MM to $4.35MM. These include Shelby Miller, Chris Tillman, Mike Minor, and Jake Arrieta. It is difficult to see any of these four pitchers falling out of that range.

Gerrit Cole is projected to earn $4.2MM, but his case is somewhat unique in that he had a relatively weak platform year despite a strong career. He went 7-10 last year, but his 47-30 in his career. His 3.88 last year is worse than his 3.23 career mark. He only threw 116 innings with 98 strikeouts last year, but he has thrown 579.1 innings with 538 strikeouts in his career. Good comparables will include players with high career wins but low platform year wins. Ivan Nova is a reasonable comparable, although he earned just $3.3MM three years ago. He had a 9-6 record with a 3.10 ERA in 139.1 innings, but was 38-20 in his career with 4.04 ERA in 517 innings. Cole’s career numbers are definitely much better than Nova’s, but Nova makes sense as a floor. I suspect Cole will get a raise over Nova’s salary plus some extra money for inflation and will end up in the $3.5MM to $4MM range, probably right in the middle—well short of his arbitration projection of $4.2MM.

Jake Odorizzi went 10-6 last season with a 3.69 ERA in 187.2 innings along with 166 strikeouts. He only has 30 career wins, fewer than the other three guys on this list, but he does have 562 career innings and a 3.75 career ERA, along with 516 strikeouts. His best comparable is probably Doug Fister four years ago, who also won ten games and had a similar ERA at 3.45. Fister also had 30 career wins and a 3.48 ERA in 610 career innings. Fister struck out over a hundred fewer batters in his career at the time he earned $4MM exactly, so adding in some salary inflation should be Odorizzi comfortably in the low 4’s. However, it is hard to find a reason why Odorizzi would top Matt Harvey, David Price, Shelby Miller, or Chris Tillman, all of whom earned between $4.32 and $4.35MM. My model projects Odorizzi at $4.6MM but my gut says $4.2MM.

Collin McHugh had a 4.34 ERA last year and has a 4.13 career ERA, so his run prevention resume is unimpressive compared to the other pitchers in this group and many other potential comparables. However, McHugh won 13 games last year and has won 43 in his career, which is a rare feat. There are only two pitchers in the last six years who have won at least 12 games in their platform years and 40 in their careers while having ERAs above 4.00. These include Ian Kennedy, who earned $4.26MM in 2013, and Tommy Hanson, who earned $3.72MM in the same year. Kennedy’s numbers are largely similar to McHugh’s, but slightly better in many aspects. Hanson was slightly behind McHugh in most categories. Given how stale these comps are, I think McHugh should pass the midpoint of around $4MM, but I also see him struggling to make a case for besting $4.35MM. I think something like $4.1MM or $4.2MM is likely, which is also below his $4.6MM projection.

Michael Fiers 4.48 platform year ERA will definitely dent his case, although his 3.87 career ERA is more impressive. He also has 11 platform year wins and 34 career wins, along with a platform year of 168.2 innings with 134 strikeouts. Jeremy Hellickson’s 2014 case is a great match. He had only one fewer loss, although Hellickson’s 5.17 ERA is definitely much worse than Fiers’ 4.48. His 39 career wins to that point best Fiers, but his 409 career strikeouts fall far below Fiers’ 542. Hellickson earned $3.63MM back in 2014, so with a more impressive platform year ERA plus three years of salary inflation, we would expect Fiers to easily top Hellickson’s salary. It is difficult to find much evidence that Fiers will hit his $4.3MM projection, though, since many of the pitchers in that range have much better cases than he does. I suspect he may be able to get close to $4MM, but probably not top it.

All four of these pitchers are likely to earn a few hundred thousand dollars less than they are projected to earn. My arbitration model tends to miss these sorts of subtleties, and a longstanding symbolic barrier at $4.35MM definitely has skewed salaries in this range down a few hundred thousand dollars. Keuchel’s new record is much higher than Willis’ old record, but several other pitchers will probably need to top $4.35MM before the model results are smooth enough that we can stop shaving money off these projections.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/6/17

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Here are the day’s minor transactions:

  • The Tigers have outrighted righty Angel Nesbitt to Triple-A after he cleared waivers, per a team announcement. Nesbitt, 26, was bumped from the 40-man recently to make way for the signing of Alex Avila. He has a bit fastball and drew grounders during his brief major-league action in 2015, but didn’t make it back to the bigs last year. Nesbitt ended up spending the entire season at Triple-A, where he worked to a 4.91ERA with 7.9 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 over 47 2/3 frames.
  • Also outrighted, per the MLB.com transactions page, was Pirates first baseman/third baseman Jason Rogers. He, too, was designated to clear roster space for a new addition — in his case, righty Nefi Ogando. The bulky 28-year-old has seen scattered time in the majors over the last three years, and hit well in 2015 for the Brewers, but didn’t enjoy a productive season in his first go-round in the Pirates organization. Pittsburgh acquired Rogers in a deal that sent Trey Supak and Keon Broxton to the Brewers last offseason. But he ended up seeing just 33 MLB plate appearances and struggled to a .263/.338/.371 slash with four home runs in his 420 trips to the plate at the highest level of the minors.

White Sox Claim Willy Garcia, Designate Jason Coats For Assignment

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The White Sox announced on Friday that they’ve claimed outfielder Willy Garcia off waivers from the Pirates and designated fellow outfielder Jason Coats for assignment to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. Garcia was designated for assignment by the Pirates last weekend to open space for Ivan Nova on Pittsburgh’s roster.

The 24-year-old Garcia posted solid numbers throughout his minor league tenure until reaching the Triple-A level, where he’s struggled to a .245/.290/.388 batting line in 790 plate appearances across the past two seasons. However, Garcia delivered strong production at the Double-A level in parts of two seasons, hitting .285/.324/.467 with 23 homers and 11 steals in 698 trips to the plate. Baseball America rated him 12th among Pirates prospects just last offseason, praising his “incredible” arm and above-average speed. While Garcia’s plate discipline is a major concern, per BA (and he indeed at a near-27 percent clip last year), their post-2015 scouting report noted that improvement in that regard could lead to an everyday corner outfielder.

Coats, meanwhile, will turn 27 next month. The former 29th-round pick made his big league debut in 2016, tallying 58 plate appearances and batting .200/.298/.340 in that brief cup of coffee. Coats did post a huge season with Triple-A Charlotte last season, slashing .330/.394/.519, and he’s delivered reasonably productive results throughout his minor league career. A right-handed hitter, Coats is primarily limited to the outfield corners.

White Sox Maintaining Daily Trade Talks Regarding Jose Quintana

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The White Sox have maintained daily trade talks centering around ace Jose Quintana, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). The Astros, Pirates and, to a much lesser extent, the Yankees remain involved in talks, though the Yankees are less willing than other interested suitors to part with the requisite prospects to pull off a Quintana deal. Rosenthal characterizes the Yanks as a “long shot,” noting that the White Sox are steadfast in their asking price on Quintana and could look to move him at the deadline if no suitable offer arises this winter. Other teams could be in the mix as well, he further adds.

Earlier today, ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested that the White Sox would like any trade for Quintana to be completed before Spring Training opens, though Quintana’s excellence and favorable contract would allow him to be traded at virtually any point during the calendar year so long as he’s healthy.

Both the Astros and Pirates have long been rumored as potential suitors for Quintana, though to this point neither club has been willing to meet Chicago’s understandably lofty asking price for the second of its prized top-of-the-rotation southpaws. (Chris Sale, of course, has already been dealt to Boston.) The White Sox reportedly asked the Astros for 24-year-old right-hander Joe Musgrove (who was solid in a 69-inning MLB debut last year) and the team’s top two prospects, righty Francis Martes and outfielder Kyle Tucker, in exchange for Quintana last month.

It’s not clear precisely what the Sox have asked of the Pirates to this point, though one can imagine top prospects like Austin Meadows and Mitch Keller have come up in trade talks. Young, potentially MLB-ready assets like Josh Bell and Tyler Glasnow, each of whom rated as a top 50 prospect before debuting in the Majors last year, also figure to hold plenty of appeal to the rebuilding Pale Hose.

Rosenthal adds in a third tweet that if the White Sox are able to find a palatable offer for their top remaining starter, then they could look to add a veteran pitcher on a one-year deal to help round out the rotation and mentor some of the organization’s young arms. Chicago already went down that road once by buying low on longtime Rangers lefty Derek Holland following the trade of Sale, and a similar move would seem prudent in the event that Quintana moves as well. Adding a veteran starter would prevent the Sox from feeling the need to rush a top pitching prospect like Lucas Giolito or Reynaldo Lopez to the Majors, and any veteran that performs well on a short-term pact could become a trade commodity this summer once contending clubs look to augment their starting rotations.

Quintana won’t turn 28 until later this month and is controlled for another four seasons at an eminently affordable total of $37.85MM. Better yet, only two of those seasons are guaranteed (at a total of $16.85MM), so if Quintana does suffer a disastrous injury or experience a stunning downturn in productivity, the financial commitment is even more manageable. That, of course, seems decidedly unlikely. Quintana is still in the midst of his prime and has been one of the game’s best performers on the mound across the past several seasons. He’s turned in four straight seasons of at least 200 innings, combining for a 3.35 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 43.7 percent ground-ball rate in 814 2/3 frames — numbers that are all the more impressive when considering his hitter-friendly home environment and the poor defenses that the White Sox have deployed in recent years.

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