- Veteran lefty starter Tommy Milone signed a minor league deal with the Seattle Mariners, per Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). The former National, Athletic, Met, Brewer and Twin has pitched parts of every season in the majors since 2011, working to a career 46-37 record, 4.42 ERA across 130 starts. Milone, 32 by Opening Day, saw limited big league time last year, pitching to a 5.81 ERA in 26 1/3 innings in his second stint with the Washington Nationals. He projects as dependable veteran depth for a Mariners team that has undergone major reconstructive changes this offseason, including the trade of another lefty James Paxton. Obviously, Milone is not a replacement for Paxton, though the latter’s absence may play a part in creating the right environment for a veteran lefty like Milone to see some innings in the majors. He hasn’t been used much in relief throughout his career, though that would be another possible path to major league playing time for Milone. He has actually performed with admirable consistency (3.52 xFIP) for a fringy big-leaguer who relies so heavily on a fastball that dipped to 86.9 mph last season. With his best secondary offering being a changeup, control (2.23 BB/9) and a sound ability to generate soft contact (86% career exit velocity) has helped Milone hang around the major leagues. Check in on all of the Mariners minor league signings from the offseason thus far (via Twitter).
Mariners Rumors
AL Notes: Rays, Tigers, Angels, Mariners
The Tampa Bay Rays have money to spend and an uncharacteristic willingness to entertain higher profile free agents like designated hitter Nelson Cruz this offseason. The front office, however, does not feel any particular urgency to spend that nest egg. Working on a rolling five-year budget, the Rays won’t be shy about pushing this payroll space over to next season or later if they can’t get the players they want at a reasonable price, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Topkin pegs their current payroll at a meager $32MM (roster resource estimates closer to $37MM), more than enough space for additions even before reaching last season’s payroll number of $76MM. Still, their 90-win 2018 was an incredible achievement in part because of the large number of pre-arbitration players on the roster, but those same players won’t be inexpensive forever. Hence the willingness of the Rays front office to bank any remaining funds for future seasons if they don’t like the prices in free agency.
Speculatively speaking, that could point to contract extensions for pre-arb players like those they signed with Evan Longoria and Matt Moore in the past, or it could simply be language intended to prime their expectant fanbase for the eventuality of a disappointing winter. With the possibility of a splashy free agent signing on the table for the first time in a long time, the Rays are surely aware of the excitement forming around this offseason.
Some more notes from around the American League as teams prepare for tomorrow’s winter meetings…
- Speaking of Matt Moore, he and the Tigers found something in common: they both viewed Moore as a starting pitcher. He came out of the bullpen for much of last season, working to a 6.79 ERA over 102 innings (12 starts) for the Rangers, Moore’s primary motivation in choosing a new home in free agency was finding an opportunity to get back into a starting rotation, where he is most comfortable, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. The Tigers signed Moore to a one-year, $2.5MM deal with incentives up to $1MM more based on the number of starts he makes. Both sides are incentivized to turn Moore back into a serviceable rotation arm, Moore for his own sake, and the Tigers because he’ll be a more attractive trade chip as a starter.
- The Angels have mostly tinkered around the edges of their major league roster thus far this offseason in acquiring Tommy La Stella, Dillon Peters and Peter Bourjos, among others, but pitching remains their biggest area of need as GM Billy Eppler heads to Las Vegas for the winter meetings, per MLB.com’s Maria Guardado. It’s been addition by subtraction with the non-tenders of Matt Shoemaker and Blake Parker, freeing up additional funds in an effort to add durable arms to their pitching staff. With an Opening Day payroll that usually comes in at around $165MM, the Angels have at least $20MM and maybe as much as $30MM to build a winner around Mike Trout this winter. Fancred’s Jon Heyman names Marwin Gonzalez and Joakim Soria as two potential targets, though both players are sure to have their share of bidders.
- The Mariners may not be done shedding veteran contracts, per TJ Cotterill of the News Tribune. Nobody expects GM Jerry Dipoto to stop dealing, of course, as baseball’s most active GM has already made six trades this offseason. With the return in these deals leaning towards youth, Dipoto suggests the prospects imported this winter has transformed the Mariners’ farm into a top-10 system, but not everyone is equally optimistic, writes Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times, who takes a look at the new Seattle youngsters. Heyman suggests they’ll be in on Japanese free agent Yusei Kikuchi, but the bullpen is the larger area of need, as tumbleweeds now populate a pen that has recently expelled Edwin Diaz, James Pazos, Alex Colome and Juan Nicasio.
Dipoto On Haniger, King Felix
While fans, pundits and other teams all try to parse the Mariners’ flurry of offseason moves, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto chatted with Fancred’s Jon Heyman and made a few definitive statements. Dipoto went on the record to indicate that the Mariners won’t be adding star right fielder Mitch Haniger to any trades as a means of persuading another team to take on a bad contract, nor will Seattle give any consideration to the thought of releasing Felix Hernandez this offseason, as some have speculated. Dipoto says there’s “zero” chance the Mariners would release King Felix this winter, adding that “out of respect to the career he’s had he deserves the opportunity” to right the ship in 2019. Heyman suggests that any of Ryon Healy, Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak or Mike Leake could be the next to go as the Mariners look to further reshape the organization.
Mariners Notes: Bruce, Santana, Haniger, Gordon
While Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto has effectively shown that nothing can be ruled out this winter, newly acquired Jay Bruce told reporters on a conference call following this week’s Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz blockbuster that he’s been told he’ll be a Mariner in 2019 (Twitter link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). Certainly, Dipoto could find an unexpected trade partner, but it seems that Bruce, 32 in April, will line up in the outfield alongside center fielder Mallex Smith and right fielder Mitch Haniger (assuming neither of them are traded themselves). For all of Seattle’s “re-imagining,” that trio could very well represent a fairly strong outfield mix if Bruce’s bat can return to its 2017 levels, when he hit .254/.324/.508 with 36 home runs.
Here’s more out of Seattle…
- Carlos Santana’s future with the Mariners is not as set in stone, it seems. Jayson Stark of The Athletic reports (via Twitter) that the Mariners have given off the sense that they’re “fine with holding onto Santana,” but they’ve also chatted with multiple other teams about the first baseman since his acquisition. Stark notes that the Phillies had a few teams interested before sending Santana to Seattle, so the Mariners should find interest as well, though they’ll surely need to absorb some of the $35MM he’s still owed on the final two years of his three-year, $60MM contract. Santana was loosely connected to the Twins before being traded to Seattle, and MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ran through a number of plausible landing spots for the veteran first baseman last month.
- In a full column, Divish takes an exhaustive look at what could be next for the Mariners in their rebuild. Haniger’s name figures to be featured prominently on the rumor mill for the remainder of the offseason, particularly because he’s close to the same age as Segura — whom Dipoto suggested would be exiting his prime when the Mariners are fully hitting their stride again (thus the trade). However, Divish explains that the organization feels Haniger will age better “due to his dedicated, almost obsessive, commitment to preparation in the offseason and during the season.” He also examines the case for moving Dee Gordon, reporting that many scouts feel Gordon’s poor 2018 campaign was tied to a broken toe he suffered in May and spent much of the season playing through. The column provides an excellent look at the cases for and against trades of a number of other Mariners players and quite nicely depicts the myriad different avenues Dipoto and his staff could explore before the 2019 season begins.
Mariners Won't Package Haniger With Seager; Option Makes Seager Difficult To Move
As the Mariners continue to explore further ways to get younger and shed payroll, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that the team won’t be attaching Kyle Seager’s contract to Mitch Haniger in an effort to escape the remaining three years and $56MM on Seager’s seven-year deal (subscription required). First and foremost, the Seattle organization considers Haniger to be among the five best corner outfielders in baseball, Rosenthal notes. Beyond that, however, Seager’s contract contains a clause converting a $15MM club option for the 2022 season into a player option, should he be traded. Because that clause makes the remainder of the contract so unappealing to trade partners, he may very well need to rebuild some value in 2019 before he can be flipped. Rosenthal’s column also sheds some light on the Mariners’ other discussions on Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, in addition to highlighting the organization’s affinity for newly acquired prospect Jarred Kelenic.
Mets Brass On Cano/Diaz Trade, Next Steps
The Mets held a fascinating press conference today to introduce recent acquisitions Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz — players who the organization clearly sees as major pieces of the club’s next winning roster. MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo was among the reporters to cover the festivities; all links below are to his Twitter feed unless otherwise noted.
New Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen offered soaring thoughts on the occasion of his first major move with the club. “I stated that this organization intended to be relentless and fearless in the pursuit of greatness,” he said. “This trade should be a signal to our fans that words alone will not define our franchise.”
Getting a deal done was spurred not only by the team’s own direct interest, but also by a desire to land Diaz before the Phillies could do so. COO Jeff Wilpon indicated the presence of the division rivals in the bidding helped drive the talks. The Phillies ultimately balked at including their best young pitching in a deal for Diaz, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Ultimately, they struck a separate deal for shortstop Jean Segura.
Van Wagenen explained further that an “all-consuming” push over the past ten days or so led to a deal. Though Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto had said he was “inclined to hold onto Diaz” and “told us no a number of times,” the Mets “kept staying on it, kept trying to be aggressive on it” and ultimately made a match after batting around numerous deal possibilities.
Unsurprisingly, the addition of an aging but still-excellent player in Cano and a top-shelf young closer in Diaz seem to portend yet more acquisitions. As Van Wagenen put it, the Mets “did not make this move to be our last move.” Wilpon went into further detail, offering up some internal perspective on the club’s status. The team’s own analytical staff see this move as taking the club from an 83 to 84 win team to one that is a true-talent, upper-eighties outfit. With “a couple more things,” he suggested, “maybe we can be 90-plus.”
As ever, payroll remains a factor. This deal is cash-neutral for the 2019 season, though it does add future dollars. And as ever, there’s an opportunity cost — in this case, long-term spending capacity and the loss of young talent. But the Mets evidently feel they can continue to boost their competitiveness.
Wilpon chatted about the Mets’ financials, explaining that the ongoing efforts to work out a settlement on the insurance coverage for David Wright will hopefully soon result in a deal. Even if the funds won’t come in a lump sum, “some of that will go back to payroll.” Meanwhile, though the coverage on outfielder Yoenis Cespedes is said to be a “little bit less” than the 75% coverage the Mets have on Wright’s salary, there could be some funds flowing back for his absence as well.
It’s still not clear how high the Mets will go in an Opening Day payroll. The club has yet to crack the $155MM barrier to start a season, though even that mark would seem to leave room to spend. Of course, there are still quite a few obvious needs on the roster — as we covered in breaking down the Mets’ offseason outlook. Most notably, the club has a variety of bullpen openings to account for and could still pursue upgrades in the outfield, behind the dish, and perhaps also in the infield mix.
One possibility that has popped up on the rumor mill in recent weeks is a trade involving starter Noah Syndergaard, presumably with intentions of adding multiple youthful assets who could join a still-developing core. The early explorations evidently have not shown promise of resulting in a deal, however, as the Mets now say they are strongly leaning against moving Thor. Per Van Wagenen, only under “very special circumstances” would he “even consider” trading a pitcher who, at his best, is among the top hurlers in all of baseball.
Needless to say, there’s tons to digest from this presser. Taken in conjunction with the trade itself, it sets up the Mets for a fascinating upcoming trip to Vegas for the Winter Meetings.
Phillies, Mariners Announce Trade Involving Jean Segura, Carlos Santana, J.P. Crawford
The Phillies and Mariners have struck a deal that sends shortstop Jean Segura to Philadelphia along with relievers Juan Nicasio and James Pazos. On the other end of the swap, the Seattle organization will receive veteran first baseman Carlos Santana and young infielder J.P. Crawford.
Money is a major aspect of this deal, but it seems the clubs were able to work things out by swapping contracts rather than paying down portions of any deals. Segura will receive a $1MM bonus for waiving his no-trade clause. It seems the M’s will pay, though that’s not fully clear. Segura will keep his NTC rights moving forward in Philly.
Seattle has pulled off a series of significant moves this winter, in service of what the club hopes will be a relatively quick reboot. Cost savings aren’t the only relevant pursuit, but it’s clearly important. In a way, then, this trade feels like a bit of a surprise at first glance.
After all, Segura is not only a high-quality player, his contract rights are generally appealing. He doesn’t turn 29 until March, and he is controlled through the 2022 season on a contract that will pay him $58MM over those four seasons (including a $1MM buyout of a $17MM club option for 2023). With Nicasio’s $9MM salary for 2019 added in, there’ll be $67MM in total heading to the Philly books.
On the other side, the M’s are taking back $35MM owed to Santana over the next two seasons (including the $500K buyout of his 2021 option, which is priced at $17.5MM). Since the other two players in the deal are not yet eligible for arbitration, the Seattle ledger will be left about $32MM lighter at the end of the day.
Beyond the financial savings, which are significant but nevertheless disappointing given Segura’s performance, the Mariners are adding an intriguing replacement at shortstop. Crawford has been a consensus top-16 prospect in the sport (as per Baseball America and Baseball America) in each of the last three seasons, though his messy, injury-plagued 2018 season has certainly dimmed his stock.
Crawford, the former 16th overall pick, first reached Triple-A in 2016. He scuffled at the plate in his first exposure, but came into his power in the following season and seemed primed for a breakthrough. Unfortunately, forearm and hand injuries intervened, limiting Crawford’s time. It’s notable, too, that he went down on strikes in 26.8% of his plate appearances while walking at a good-but-not-great 9.4% rate. Plate discipline, after all, is his calling card. On the other hand, his .214/.319/.393 slash still worked out to a 96 wRC+ and there’s still surely room to grow. Crawford, after all, will not turn 24 until January.
Even while recognizing the very real value that still lies in the rights to Crawford, it’s hard to escape the sense that this wasn’t a deal the Mariners really loved making. While there was some interest from other quarters in Segura — the Yankees reportedly took a look, while the Padres and Mariners discussed a potential blockbuster that would’ve sent Segura and Mike Leake to San Diego in exchange for Wil Myers — it seems it never reached a boiling point. It’s certainly true, as Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs wrote tonight, that there was a thin market at shortstop. And some whispers of clubhouse issues (including a scrap with Dee Gordon) probably didn’t help. As Dipoto explained tonight: “If the market were higher, we would have made a higher level trade.”
There’s certainly some value in Santana, too, despite his tepid output in 2018. It was just last winter, after all, that the market made him something of an exception for its newfound dislike of lumbering sluggers. The switch-hitter’s plate discipline remains top-notch, and he not only handles first base well but showed he can give some innings at the hot corner.
If you look at it long enough, you can begin to wonder why it is the Phillies were interested in giving up Santana after adding him only one year back. Surely, the team can see that his .231 batting average on balls in play is likely to rise and that he’s more or less the same player they targeted. In this case, though, GM Matt Klentak and co. were faced with some incongruous roster occupants and a clear mandate to improve.
Last year’s experiments provided information, but perhaps not of the kind the Phils were hoping for. Rhys Hoskins failed to make the transition from first base to the corner outfield, creating a dilemma. Meanwhile, Crawford wasn’t quite ready to become a regular at short; neither was Scott Kingery.
This swap, then, suits a variety of needs in Philadelphia. Finding a reasonable way to move on from Santana was clearly necessary. Hoskins can step back in at first base while leaving a corner outfield spot open for some other impactful hitter who can handle the position defensively.
The addition of Segura, though, was surely the driving force. He has become a highly productive offensive player, with a .308/.353/.449 slash line to go with 41 homers and 75 steals over the last three seasons. While Segura is highly reliant on contact, he’s also quite good at avoiding strikeouts (personal-low 10.9% K rate in 2018) and getting aboard when he puts the ball in play (.320 lifetime BABIP). Perhaps he won’t revisit his high-water power point (twenty long balls and a .181 ISO in 2016), but Segura seems likely to deliver above-average work with the bat for much of the remainder of his deal.
It’s not as if Segura is a stretch to play at shortstop, either. He has mostly graded in range of average over the years, with DRS generally valuing him as a slight plus and UZR shading the other way. Regardless, he can handle the job. Segura hasn’t scored as well for his overall baserunning in recent years, but obviously can still run and should probably be viewed as a positive performer in that regard as well.
Some reports had indicated that just-acquired Mariners right-hander Anthony Swarzak was to be passed along in the swap. Instead, it’s Nicasio, who has a similar salary to that of Swarzak and functions in the same essential capacity in this trade. Actually, the 32-year-old Nicasio looks to be one of the most interesting buy-low relief candidates out there on the heels of a bizarre 2018 campaign. He was tagged for six earned per nine over 42 frames, but also posted a pristine combination of 11.4 K/9 and 1.1 BB/9. Clearly, a .402 BABIP and 58.1% strand rate played a big role in the struggles.
Meanwhile, Pazos could be a cost-effective boon to the Philadelphia relief corps, having pitched to a 3.39 ERA with 9.5 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 across 103 2/3 innings for the Mariners from 2017-18. He’s not yet arbitration-eligible and can be controlled through the 2022 season. As Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times notes on Twitter, Pazos exhibited some worrisome trends late in the year, with some velocity loss and “mechanical issues.” Still, it’s an easy chance for the Phillies to take on a potentially quality reliever who’ll still earn the league minimum.
For both organizations, then, this was quite a notable swap — and one that could set the stage for further dealing.
On the Phillies’ side, the club has found an answer at short, but perhaps not in the way some anticipated entering the winter. Manny Machado now looks to be a potential target to line up at third base, which isn’t his preferred position, as Klentak has made clear that the club sees Segura as its shortstop. Having made a significant upgrade without adding much salary (and even while resolving the Santana issue), the Phils also now still seem to have ample flexibility to work with in exploring further major acquisitions.
Meanwhile, Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has now moved three more established players after already shipping out James Paxton, Mike Zunino, Alex Colome, Robinson Cano, and Edwin Diaz in less than four weeks’ time. Mike Leake and Kyle Seager are also being shopped. And perhaps the team’s most recently added veterans shouldn’t be ruled out, either, with Santana joining Jay Bruce and Anthony Swarzak as pieces that could be moved if the M’s see a chance to add talent and/or save further coin. It’ll be most interesting to see whether any further controllable talent — most notably, Mitch Haniger and Marco Gonzales — could be on the move this winter.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that a deal was nearing (Twitter link). USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted further detail, as did Rosenthal (Twitter links). Rosenthal (in a tweet) and colleague Jayson Stark (on Twitter) had details on Segura’s no-trade rights.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mets Announce Acquisition Of Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz
After several days of anticipation, the Mariners and Mets have made what will surely be one of the offseason’s biggest moves official: Seattle has traded second baseman Robinson Cano and closer Edwin Diaz to the Mets in exchange for outfielder Jay Bruce, right-hander Anthony Swarzak, right-hander Gerson Bautista and prospects Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn.
Beyond the contractual values changing hands, the Mariners are sending a reported $20MM to the Mets to help offset the remaining $120MM owed to Cano through 2023. That said, the blockbuster swap will still save the Mariners a reported total of roughly $64MM. With the $20MM sum spread in approximately even amounts during the remainder of Cano’s time under contract, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), the move will leave the Mets’ 2019 payroll in more or less the same position it was beforehand.
It’s a stunning move from multiple angles. Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto denied reports early in the offseason that he was considering a tear-down of the Mariners’ roster but, in the month or so since making that comment, has now traded James Paxton, Mike Zunino, Alex Colome, Cano and Diaz — to say nothing of a Jean Segura trade to the Phillies that is reportedly nearing conclusion but has yet to be formally announced.
Meanwhile, the Mets, who’ve typically operated with a far tighter budget than one would anticipate for a club in that market, are taking on a huge amount of money in order acquire Cano and Diaz, and they still have ample work to do to address holes elsewhere on the roster. The deal is all the more fascinating when observing that newly hired Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen was formerly one of the game’s most prominent agents and that the largest contract he ever negotiated was none other than Cano’s 10-year, $240MM deal with Seattle.
Cano, who had to waive his no-trade clause to green-light this deal, will head back to the city where his big league career started and figures to supplant Jeff McNeil as the Mets’ primary second baseman. It’s a tough pill for McNeil to swallow after he hit .329/.381/.471 as a rookie, but he should still be in line for plenty of at-bats. The Mets could well give him a significant amount of work at third base, depending on the organizational plans for Todd Frazier, and McNeil has seen brief minor league work at shortstop, first base and in the outfield as well. At one point, the Mets were reportedly debating the possibility of sending McNeil to Seattle as what would’ve been a key part of this swap, and the fact that they were ultimately able to keep him is a critical factor when taking a step back and even attempting to evaluate the complex transaction.
It’s also important to emphasize that while Cano’s contract, like any 10-year free-agent deal or extension, was an obvious overpay at the time, he’s not an entirely sunk-cost acquisition. Though he served an 80-game suspension following a failed PED test last year, Cano hit .303/.374/.471 with 10 home runs through 348 plate appearances on the season as a whole. Some will point to the suspension in an effort to invalidate his output, but Cano was actually better at the plate upon returning from that ban; in 179 PAs down the stretch, he hit .317/.363/.497.
There’s also been plenty of talk about his defense, but the notion that he needs to move to first base because he’s no longer a quality defender at second base carries little weight. Since the 2012 season, Cano has received negative marks from Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating just once (2015), and he tallied +4 DRS and a +2.8 UZR in 561 innings at the position this past season.
Of course, while Cano was still an extremely productive player when on the field in 2018, it’d be foolish to simply expect that he can continue playing at that pace in 2019 and beyond. The eight-time All-Star turned 36 in October, and he’s already outperforming the typical aging curve that one might expect for someone who is well into his mid-30s. While he may prove to be an anomalous exception in that regard, history suggests that Cano’s production will begin to deteriorate sooner rather than later. If the Mets were even able to receive two strong seasons out of Cano, they’d likely consider that a victory. There’s little doubt, though, that the final two to three seasons of Cano’s contract won’t be worth what they pay him — even with Seattle picking up a portion of the tab.
Really, though, the trade was less about the Mets hoping to catch lightning in a bottle with the final couple of productive seasons of Cano. For Van Wagenen and the New York front office, this trade was a means of effectively purchasing four below-market seasons of one of the game’s premier young relievers. The 24-year-old Diaz just put the finishing touches on a historically dominant season — 1.96 ERA, 15.2 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.61 HR/9, 44.4 percent ground-ball rate, 57 saves — and missed arbitration eligibility by a matter of weeks. He’ll make less than $1MM in 2019 and can be controlled for a fraction of his open-market price through his three arbitration years.
However, Diaz won’t be the typical bargain that many associate with arbitration-eligible players. His enormous save and strikeout totals should push him into record-breaking territory among relievers, and it’s conceivable that he’ll be paid in the $8-9MM range for his first arbitration season in 2020 — assuming another productive campaign in 2019. Like most arbitration-eligible stars, he’ll still be highly valuable asset, but the real question of this trade is just how much surplus value comes with Diaz and how confidently one can project him to maintain his dominance. One could argue that the four years of Diaz being acquired by the Mets is worth anywhere from $60-80MM (if not a bit more), and considering he’ll be paid somewhere around half that sum, he’s an extremely appealing commodity.
The debatable question is whether that surplus value is great enough for the Mets to both part with prospects and take on some negative value at the back of Cano’s deal. Obviously, both Kelenic and Dunn are exponentially more affordable than they’d be in an open-market setting themselves, and the Mariners feel that long-term value, paired with the subtraction of a huge financial burden in the form of Cano, are worth surrendering one of the game’s better young arms. There’s no clearly correct answer in that subjective debate. In the end, the Mets feel the up-front value of Diaz’s electric repertoire and the remaining productivity Cano has to offer are the more valuable asset.
That, in fact, is perhaps the most important takeaway from the entire scenario. While much of the summer was spent wondering whether the disappointing and dysfunctional Mets would trade Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and others — thus embarking on a rebuild like the ones the Mariners have begun — the addition of Cano and Diaz at a premium price firmly suggests that Van Wagenen and the Mets’ staff are unabashedly in “win-now” mode. Trade rumblings surrounding Syndergaard persist, though it’s clear that if he’s to be moved in a trade, it would need to be a deal that netted immediate MLB help at another position of need. The Mets are in for a highly active winter, and the organization seems fully committed to keeping up with the emerging threats in Atlanta and Philadelphia, as well as the near-perennial postseason contenders in D.C.
The Mariners entered the offseason with a bloated payroll and an aging roster, but they did so on the heels of an 89-win campaign that saw them firmly in contention for a postseason spot for much of the season. Dipoto and his staff, though, were undoubtedly cognizant of the team’s glaring run differential (-34 at season’s end). Mariners decision-makers were surely aware that there was a fair bit of good fortune that contributed to their sterling record for much of the season. While that reality and a bloated payroll initially led to comments about “re-imagining” the roster in Seattle, the M’s have instead taken a more drastic approach.
It’s a credit to Dipoto and his staff, in some regards, that the team has managed to shed upwards of $100MM in salary obligations (including the projected arbitration payouts for Colome, Paxton and Zunino while also accounting for the contracts they’re reportedly taking back in today’s trades). And, while they’ve stripped away a number of fan favorites and productive veterans from the roster, they’ve also added a significant amount of MLB-ready talent that could soften the blow immediately.
Mallex Smith and Omar Narvaez will be regulars on the 2019 roster, while pitching prospects Justus Sheffield and Erik Swanson should both factor into the 2019 rotation at some point (possibly from Opening Day, in Sheffield’s case). Bautista, acquired in return for Cano and Diaz, will be given an opportunity to claim a bullpen spot. Bautista, 23, averaged 96.9 mph on his fastball in an exceptionally brief MLB debut this past season (4 1/3 innings) and has averaged better than 12 strikeouts per nine innings since the Mets acquired him from the Red Sox in 2017’s Addison Reed trade.
And that doesn’t yet factor in the addition of Bruce and Swarzak — two veterans who, while acquired more to offset Cano’s salary than anything, are only a year removed from productive big league seasons that resulted in multi-year guarantees in free agency. While it’s eminently possible, if not probable, that the Mariners will look to trade both, it’s also at least possible that either could simply suit up in Seattle this coming season and perhaps enjoy a rebound. Bruce could unseat Ben Gamel in left field, and the Mariners’ relief corps is rife with uncertainty at present, creating an easy path for Swarzak to work toward reestablishing himself.
Of course, for the Mariners, this trade is primarily about the opportunity to not only add a pair of recent first-round picks in Kelenic (2018) and Dunn (2016) but also simultaneously jettison half the remaining money owed to Cano (for his age-36 through age-40 seasons). That contract was signed under the Mariners’ previous front-office regime and was likely never something Dipoto’s group was excited about inheriting. And Kelenic and Dunn will add a pair of interesting young talents to a farm system that had previously been regarded as one of the weakest in the game — if not the absolute worst.
Just 19 years of age, Kelenic was selected with the sixth overall pick just under six months ago. At one point, the Wisconsin native was tabbed as a potential No. 1 overall pick, and he’s done nothing to dispel the notion that he was a worthy top 10 overall selection since signing. In his brief time with the Mets, Kelenic hit .286/.371/.468 with six homers, 10 doubles, six triples and 15 stolen bases (in 16 tries) across two minor league affiliates. Scouting reports agree that Kelenic has the potential to be average or better in center field, and he’s already ranked comfortably within the game’s Top 100 prospects by MLB.com and Fangraphs.
Dunn, who turned 23 in late September, tore through Class-A Advanced opposition in 45 2/3 innings this season, posting a 2.36 ERA with 10.1 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.39 HR/9 and a 39.3 percent ground-ball rate. His ERA jumped to 4.22 in 89 2/3 innings of Double-A ball, but he averaged 10.5 strikeouts and 0.7 home runs per nine innings pitched at that more advanced level — all while seeing his ground-ball rate improve to 45.1 percent. Dunn did average 3.7 walks per nine innings in Double-A, so there’s some work to do on his control, but he’ll instantly become one of the Mariners’ more intriguing pitching prospects.
In the end, the Cano/Diaz blockbuster, while fascinating, is impossible to accurately judge at present. While everyone will surely formulate his or own opinion of the deal as presently constructed, there are too many trickle-down effects that will prove critical when looking back at the deal down the line. Can the Mariners further unload some of the money owed to Bruce and/or Swarzak? Will either rebound? Is Kelenic a star in the making or one of the countless drops in the bucket of “what could have been”? Will Mets ownership finally give its baseball ops staff the resources commensurate with the team’s market size, or will the addition of Cano’s contract prove prohibitive when pursuing additional win-now maneuvers? All of these will factor into the calculus of this trade when looking back on it six months, a year and five years from now. What’s immediately clear is that this is a legitimately franchise-altering transaction for both organizations — and it’s unlikely that either is anywhere near finished with its offseason roster shuffling.
SNY’s Andy Martino reported last week that the Mets were being “aggressive” on Cano. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweeted that there was “significant momentum” toward a trade that would send Cano and Diaz to the Mets (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that Kelenic and Dunn were being discussed and that an agreement between the two teams was close (Twitter links). Martino tweeted details on the package, reporting that Bruce, Swarzak, Kelenic and Dunn would be in the deal, and Bautista could be the fifth player. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirmed Bautista’s inclusion. Passan added further clarity on the financial component of the trade (via Twitter), while MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted that Cano had officially waived his no-trade clause. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted the exact package, including the money changing hands.
Mariners, Mets Agree To Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz Blockbuster
Dec. 3: The trade is official, tweets Passan. The two sides will make an announcement today, it seems.
Dec. 1, 8:49pm: Cano has indeed waived his no-trade clause, per Morosi. It’ll be Cano, Diaz and $20MM for Bruce, Swarzak, Kelenic, Dunn and Bautista, Heyman tweets. The trade will save the Mariners approximately $64MM, Johns notes on Twitter. It should become official “late Monday,” Sherman reports.
8:10pm: A deal is in place, pending physicals, Tenchy Rodriguez of ESPN Deportes Radio reports (Twitter link via Jon Morosi of MLB.com). The trade could be announced as early as Monday, Martino tweets.
3:38pm: The aforementioned “work” to be done on the deal, per Ken Rosenthal on Twitter, is tri-fold: The commissioner’s office must approve the amount of money exchanging hands in the deal, each player must pass his physical, and Robinson Cano must give official approval to waive his no-trade clause. Per Rosenthal, the trade should be announced “early next week.”
Nov. 30, 6:24pm: The Mariners are only expected to chip in something in the mid-$20MM range to cover Cano’s salary, per Passan (via Twitter). Seattle will still be absorbing the two significant contracts, of course, but it seems the New York org will be paying for about half of Cano’s contract (while also presumptively paying Diaz in arbitration).
Meanwhile, there’s still work to be done on the deal, which Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets will not be concluded this evening.
8:15am: The Mets and Mariners aren’t expected to formally announce anything today, Heyman tweets. That said, Newsday’s David Lennon suggests that the parameters of the deal are largely believed to be in place, so the lack of a Friday announcement doesn’t indicate that there’s any kind of snag in the deal.
Nov. 29, 11:56pm: Bautista would indeed be the fifth piece going to Seattle in the deal, as currently constructed, Sherman tweets.
11:30pm: McNeil will not be included in the trade if it is ultimately completed, per Sherman. Instead, he tweets that the Mets will send Kelenic, Dunn, Bruce, Swarzak and another reliever to the Mariners. Notably, Sherman reports that medical info has still yet to be reviewed, and Cano has yet to waive his no-trade clause (though there’s no expectation that he’ll veto a trade that would send him back to New York City).
10:15pm: It seems that the two sides haven’t quite finalized the group of players who’d head to Seattle in the deal. Martino tweets that the Mets are still “hesitant” to include McNeil and are currently proposing right-hander Gerson Bautista in addition to Kelenic, Dunn, Bruce and Swarzak.
Obviously, that’d be a fairly substantial change to the deal’s perception; Bautista is a flamethrowing young righty with upside, but he’s yet to find success in the Majors or even the upper minors. McNeil, meanwhile, looked like a potential big league regular in his rookie season with the Mets this past season.
Puma had previously tweeted that McNeil wasn’t in the trade as of yesterday, though there’s “some thought that may have changed today,” so it seems as if the organization could be on the fence about whether to ultimately include the promising 26-year-old.
8:40pm: The trade is “expected to be completed by Friday,” tweets Passan. He further clarifies that it’s not yet clear how much money the Mariners would send to the Mets to help offset Cano’s remaining contract. Sending Bruce and Swarzak to Seattle would effectively leave the Mets on the hook for $86MM of Cano’s salary, and it seems fair to expect that Seattle would add some additional cash to help further offset the financial commitment to Cano.
Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets that things have advanced to the point where the Mets have begun to formally alert players to the fact that they’re in a deal that is on the verge of completion (albeit not yet 100 percent complete).
8:08pm: The offer on the table, at present, would see McNeil, Kelenic, Dunn, Bruce and Swarzak all head to Seattle in exchange for Cano and Diaz, tweets Martino. He cautions that the two sides have not yet reviewed medical information on the players involved, which always has the potential to throw a wrench into trade negotiations. Heyman tweets that a combination of those names is on the table.
7:11pm: A trade involving Diaz and Cano is close to being agreed upon, tweets Rosenthal.
6:33pm: Sherman tweets that the talks between the two sides are indeed intensifying, adding that the Mariners are now focused on the Mets rather than any other potential trade partners. Both Bruce and Swarzak could be included as a means of helping to offset Cano’s salary, and there are plenty of details to be sorted out, including medical reports and Cano’s no-trade clause.
5:40pm: Talks between the Mariners and Mets are reaching a “critical stage,” tweets Rosenthal. He notes that New York’s offer to Seattle includes some combination (but not all) of Kelenic, Dunn, McNeil, Bruce and Swarzak. That latter pair of names would seemingly be more about offsetting salary than anything else, while the first three are all well-regarded young players who’d provide the Mariners organization with a substantial amount of long-term value.
Meanwhile, MLB.com’s Greg Johns tweets that talks are indeed accelerating. A deal seems quite likely, per Johns, though the specific names involved are still being sorted out.
5:15pm: The Mariners are talking to multiple clubs about Cano, Diaz and shortstop Jean Segura, Rosenthal tweets. Those negotiations include myriad scenarios, including combinations of those three players as well as standalone deals for each. Similarly, Sherman adds that the Mets are operating with the belief that they’re one of many clubs in talks with the Mariners as they explore trades for combinations of those three as well as standalone swaps.
1:24pm: The teams have discussed scenarios involving both Cano and Diaz individually, as well as package arrangements, per Martino (via Twitter).
10:13am: “Significant momentum” has built toward a deal that would send high-dollar veteran second baseman Robinson Cano and top-shelf young closer Edwin Diaz from the Mariners to the Mets, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links). Cano has reportedly not yet been asked to waive his no-trade rights, though Passan adds that is not expected to represent a significant hurdle.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post characterizes things somewhat differently in his own series of tweets. His sources indicate that the “Mets do not currently feel like they are close to a deal,” though he also makes clear that the interest is serious. Notably, Sherman suggests that the New York organization still doesn’t have a firm sense of whether the M’s are committed to packaging Cano and Diaz at all. Indeed, indications are that the Seattle org is still engaged with other clubs.
Obviously, the full parameters of this potential swap have yet to be revealed in full. And it’s hardly a done deal. But some chatter about other pieces has emerged as well. Recent first-round draft picks Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn are “under discussion” along with other pre-MLB assets, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Youngster David Peterson is also in the conversation, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. It’s important to emphasize that there is no specific indication that any or all of these young players is involved in a specific, fully built out scenario that the two organizations are deciding upon. Rather, per Heyman, the sides are tossing around different deal structures, with the Mariners demanding prospect value if they’re to part with Diaz.
Particulars aside, it’s rather stunning to see that the concept — a deal packaging Cano’s $120MM in remaining salary with Diaz — has advanced to this stage. There are certainly shades of the 2015 Melvin Upton/Craig Kimbrel swap here, so there is a clear model to follow, but this new proposal involves somewhat more extreme contract rights. (Upton was owed nearly $75MM less at the time of that swap than Cano is now, for instance.)
Cano is already 36 years of age, and sat out half the 2018 campaign due to a suspension for use of a masking agent, so the five years left on his deal are hardly an appealing proposition. But he’s also still a high-quality major-leaguer. Diaz, meanwhile, is unquestionably the top relief asset that could be had on this winter’s market. Though the aforementioned Kimbrel is an immensely accomplished closer who’s presently available in free agency, Diaz handily outperformed him last year. More importantly, he has the clear edge in youth and cost.
Unquestionably, quite a bit more will be involved in any actual trade than the two players rumored to this point. The Mariners will in all likelihood hold on to some of Cano’s contract and/or absorb a Mets contract in return. And the New York club will surely send back some talent. Those details will determine the ultimate merits of the swap for each club.
We’ll have to wait to learn the details, if anything is actually concluded. But it seems clear even from these reports of intense interest that the Mets are not only chasing the elite young closer, but see an opportunity to capture a some value from Cano, whose contract new GM Brodie Van Wagenen negotiated in his prior life as an agent. The long-time star is clearly not in his prime, but he still hit quite a bit when he wasn’t on the restricted list last year. Presumably, he’d step in at his accustomed second base, a position he can still handle (albeit not at his once-elite levels).
Adding Cano at second would dislodge Jeff McNeil, who emerged last year with an outstanding debut showing. The Mets would still have other options to shift around their infield pieces. It could also be that McNeil would move in the trade. He has appeared in the conversation between the organizations, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo tweets. McNeil already 26 years of age and only just debuted in the majors in 2018, but was one of the most pleasant surprises league-wide in the just-completed campaign. He not only showed off his typically excellent plate discipline, but turned in a notable power surge (as against his prior minor-league track record) and then slashed a hefty .329/.381/.471 in 248 big league plate appearances.
The full potential ramifications, clearly, would depend upon as-yet-unknown specifics. That’s due in no small part to the still-unknown slate of prospects that could be involved and, even more importantly from a MLB roster perspective, the contracts that could head the other way. We’ve heard Jay Bruce’s name thrown around quite a bit as a potential big contract to go to Seattle. Perhaps Juan Lagares would hold more appeal to the M’s, as a defensive stalwart who seems to fit the mold of player that Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto often targets, though he’s not owed as much. Todd Frazier, Jason Vargas, and Anthony Swarzak are among the other costly veteran pieces who could in theory be utilized to facilitate a swap.
For now, then, it doesn’t seem we know all that much more about the realistic possibilities than we have for the past week or so, as Cano/Diaz rumors have permeated the hot stove landscape. Even the level of seriousness of the Mets has been suggested, with SNY.tv’s Andy Martino calling the club an “aggressive” pursuer. Previously, though, it has hardly been evident that there was a realistic path to a trade that would lead to a match. The importance of these most recent developments is that, as Passan puts it, “there is an increasing expectation a trade will get finished.”
Mariners Notes: Cano, Yankees
Robinson Cano is expected to officially become a member of the Mets roster on Monday, with only physical examinations remaining to be completed for the seven players involved in the trade with the Mariners. Cano arrived in New York on Sunday night, and told the New York Post’s Joseph Staszewski that he is looking forward to joining his new team. “For me this season is motivating. It’s blessed always to wear a uniform, be able to play in the big leagues, to play sharp. Mets uniform, there is a lot of pride, a lot of good history and I’m ready to go,” Cano said. The deal could have been held up due to Cano’s no-trade clause, though he decided to waive his protection after speaking with Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen….who, ironically, helped negotiate that same clause into Cano’s contract in his previous role as Cano’s agent.
- With the Mariners on the verge of both the Cano deal and another major trade, the James Paxton deal to the Yankees almost seems like old news at this point, though that trade took place just two weeks ago. Yankees GM Brian Cashman revisited his own blockbuster deal speaking to reporters (including George A. King III of the New York Post) and noted that talks about Paxton began after Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto “said he was willing to talk about everybody but three players,” though “one of them he just moved to the Mets.” It’s safe to assume that Cashman is referring to Edwin Diaz, who is on the verge of joining Cano on the Mets. While Dipoto has been open about dealing higher-priced veterans off the Mariners’ roster, he has said that it would take quite a bit more to obtain controllable assets like Diaz, Mitch Haniger, and Marco Gonzales, so one can infer that Haniger and Gonzales may be the other two players that were reportedly off-limits at the time of Dipoto’s talks with Cashman. Of course, since Diaz has now been shipped to Citi Field, it’s fair to wonder if Haniger and Gonzales could find themselves in different uniforms by Opening Day.
