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Cubs Avoid Arbitration With Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

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3:07pm: The Cubs will pay Javier Baez an even $10MM, per Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). That’s $700K north of his projected earning point. The sides are said to be interested in hammering out a longer-term contract, which remains possible after working out a 2020 salary.

3:00pm: Several other key Cubs players also have deals, per ESPNChicago.com’s Jesse Rogers (Twitter links). Catcher Willson Contreras receives a $4.5MM salary, right on the MLBTR projection. Outfielder Kyle Schwarber will play for $7.01MM, south of the $8MM that the model predicted.

In other deals, the Cubs will pay southpaw Kyle Ryan $975K, according to Robert Murray (Twitter links). And outfielder Albert Almora will earn $1.575MM this year.

11:35am: The Cubs have avoided arbitration with third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link). He’ll earn $18.6MM in 2020.

That’s right on the projected valuation produced by the MLBTR/Matt Swartz model, which pegged Bryant at $18.5MM. The model seemed to (and did) match up with the real-world situation, as Matt explained in a detailed look at Bryant’s case. It’s a nice raise on his $12.9MM salary from 2019.

Bryant, who recently turned 28, continues to churn out productive seasons. He was limited somewhat by injuries in 2018 but appeared in 147 contests in the just-completed campaign, slashing .282/.382/.521 and driving 31 balls over the fence.

This settles one of the winter’s open questions involving Bryant and the Cubs — but certainly not the most interesting one. We’re still awaiting the outcome of a service-time grievance brought by the player surrounding the eyebrow-raising timing of his initial promotion to the majors. The resolution of that situation promises to impact ongoing trade talks involving the long-time Chicago star. It seems clear that the organization is interested in exploring scenarios involving Bryant and other top players, though it’s unclear as yet whether he or any other key piece will end up on the move.

Arbitration Breakdown: Kris Bryant

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Over the coming days, I am discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2020 projections are available right here.

The Cubs’ Kris Bryant reaches his third year of arbitration coming off a solid campaign in which he hit .281 with 31 home runs and knocked in 77 runs in 634 plate appearances. This comes at the heels of an injury-laden 2018 campaign in which the third baseman/outfielder only played 102 games and hit just 13 home runs. Bryant had received a record deal in 2018 for $10.85MM, after compiling both a Rookie of the Year Award and Most Valuable Player honors prior to reaching arbitration. However, Bryant’s disappointing 2018 only earned him a small $2.05MM raise. The model projects him to get a far more generous $5.9MM raise in 2020 after a healthy season with solid power.

Starting at an obviously very high $12.9MM salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility, it is possible that Bryant’s raise could be affected just by the base salary on which his raise will be added. So it would be useful to look for comparable players with high salary levels.

The other particularly notable distinction in Bryant’s number is that 77 RBI is a fairly small total for a hitter with 31 homers.  A good comp would be a player who hit for similar power, without knocking in many runs either.

Fellow third baseman Josh Donaldson emerges as a possibility with his $6MM in 2018. He hit .270/33/78, obviously quite similar to Bryant’s .282/31/77. However, Donaldson only had 496 plate appearances. Additionally, Donaldson was actually in his fourth year of arbitration eligibility (Bryant is in his third year). Furthermore, Donaldson was somewhat of a unique case coming off a two-year deal. However, $6MM seems at least plausible for Bryant.

Another third baseman to consider as a ceiling is Nolan Arenado last year. Arenado got an $8.25MM raise off a very high base salary of $17.75MM, after putting up a .297/38/110 line in 673 plate appearances. Despite the hitter’s park augmenting those numbers, Arenado’s case appeared to be stronger than Bryant’s, and $8.25MM is likely a ceiling for Bryant’s potential raise.

Didi Gregorius might be a potential floor. Back in 2018, the shortstop received a $3.15MM raise after hitting .287 with 25 home runs and 87 runs batted in. Gregorius played a harder position and actually topped Bryant on both batting average and runs batted in, but Bryant’s extra six home runs suggest Gregorius is probably a floor.

Another floor could be Manny Machado two years ago, as he hit .259 with 33 homers and 95 runs RBI, and got a $4.5MM increase.

Overall, I think the model gets Bryant’s raise about right. He should safely land between Machado’s $4.5MM raise and Arenado’s $8.25MM upgrade, and probably closer to Machado. Donaldson’s $6MM raise, his contractual differences notwithstanding, probably is a reasonable guess as to Bryant’s salary and is only $400K larger than the model projects.

Latest NL Central Chatter

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It has been a fairly quiet winter for the Cardinals, who are looking to defend a triumphant return to the top of the NL Central heap. In the latest edition of the Best Podcast In Baseball (audio link), Derrick Goold and St. Louis Post-Dispatch colleague Ben Frederickson examine the question whether the organization can still plug a big new bat into its lineup. There’s ongoing contact with Marcell Ozuna and interest in Nolan Arenado, but it’s still largely unclear whether either player — or some alternative — will end up with the Redbirds in 2020.

More from the NL Central:

  • The Reds are surely still contemplating additions even after inking Shogo Akiyama and making other roster upgrades. But GM Nick Krall suggests the outfield won’t be the focal point, as John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports on Twitter. With Akiyama installed up the middle, the Reds now have loads of options for finishing their roster, including potentially moving existing outfielders in various scenarios. The team will adopt an “opportunistic” stance with regard to free agent outfielders, Krall says. Further improvement could happen, it seems, but only if a compelling value proposition arises.
  • There has been a lot of turnover for the Brewers this winter, though it seems fair to say the approach has been one of seeking incremental, cost-efficient improvement. Certainly, there hasn’t been a marquee addition. The organization may or may not have something bigger up its sleeve, but it likely isn’t done making moves. GM David Stearns told reporters yesterday he’d be “surprised” if he isn’t able to make further roster tweaks, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (Twitter links). The top Milwaukee baseball decisionmaker also indicated that he thinks it likelier the team will make its next strike via trade than through a free agent market that has already been drained of many of its best assets.
  • The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma (subscription link) provide an update on the not-yet-updated Cubs roster. Perhaps unsurprisingly … well, there’s really not much new to report. The club remains disappointed in the level of demand they’ve found for top potential trade chips Kris Bryant and Willson Contreras, per the reporting duo, which says that rivals feel the Chicago org has placed “sky-high asking prices.” Internally, the front office simply does not and has not ever intended to move those high-grade players “for anything less than a massive haul.” Under the circumstances, it’s not surprising to see ongoing stasis. The trouble is that the Cubs roster — which is examined in full in the link — doesn’t appear especially likely to make strides without new additions.

Cubs To Sign Carlos Asuaje

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The Cubs have reached a minor-league deal with utilityman Carlos Asuaje, according to Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (Twitter link). Further details aren’t yet known.

Asuaje, 28, has seen action in parts of three MLB campaigns but has failed to capitalize on the opportunities. He’s just a .240/.312/.329 hitter with six long balls through 586 plate appearances at the game’s highest level.

Last year, the former Red Sox and Padres prospect tried his hand at Korea’s top league. But he was cut loose after a disappointing 49-game run, over which he walked more than he struck out but produced very little power. Asuaje returned to take 186 plate appearances at Triple-A with the Diamondbacks organization, turning in a .239/.339/.403 slash that was good only for an 81 wRC+ in the offensively charged PCL.

It’s not exactly the notable move that Cubs fans have been waiting for, but Sharma suggests that Asuaje could be given a shot at cracking the MLB roster in camp. He’s primarily a second baseman but has seen time professionally at third base, left field, and (least of all) shortstop.

Offseason Notes: Nationals, Free Agents, Rays, Cubs, Bryant, Contreras

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The World Champion Washington Nationals are likely to move on from their remaining free agents, save for local institution Ryan Zimmerman and perhaps his first base partner Matt Adams, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. That means Daniel Hudson has likely priced himself out of the Nationals’ plans. Fernando Rodney could get another shot on a minor league deal, but GM Mike Rizzo has handed those out rather liberally this winter, and the bullpen barracks are looking pretty full: Javy Guerra, Fernando Abad, and David Hernandez are all competing for bullpen spots on minor league deals while Sean Doolittle, Will Harris, Tanner Rainey, Wander Suero and Roenis Elias look pretty good to secure their seats at the table. Hunter Strickland, and one of Joe Ross, Austin Voth, and Erick Fedde could also very well end up in the bullpen, leaving just a spot or two as truly up for grabs. Brian Dozier, the last of the Nats’ five remaining free agents, is all but gone now that Starlin Castro and Asdrubal Cabrera have been signed.

  • The Rays have pretty consistently made themselves a good place for January free agents to take their career to the next level, per John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times. A list of short-term additions late in the free agent season have gone on to produce in Tampa Bay and earn themselves a raise the following winter. The partial list of players who went on to earn bigger paydays after leaving Tampa includes Avisail Garcia, Logan Morrison, C.J. Cron, and Corey Dickerson. The time is now for the Rays, who typically strike about this time of year, and they still have needs to fill. Expect Tampa to add another bat and another catcher before the winter is out.
  • The Cubs have lingered in the shadows throughout the winter, and though a Kris Bryant trade has been clearly telegraphed, the star third baseman remains in Chicago due to asking price, per David Kaplan of NBC Sports Chicago. Speaking to people around the game, Kaplan found real skepticism that Bryant remains the foundational superstar he was in 2016. That hasn’t stopped the Cubs from asking for the moon, with the same being true of their asking price for Willson Contreras. Theo Epstein and the Cubs are in a tough place after seeing their championship window slam closed last season, and it’s understandable for the braintrust in Chicago to hold out hope for a franchise-altering return for one of their homegrown stars. But if the return they seek never materializes, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of alternative plan they can cook up to keep these Cubs viable.

Talks Between Nationals, Cubs On Kris Bryant Have ‘Gone Nowhere’

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Recent talks between the Cubs and Nationals regarding Kris Bryant have “gone nowhere,” reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (via Twitter). Negotiations seemed to hit an impasse a few weeks ago, when the Cubs reportedly insisted upon the inclusion of promising center fielder Víctor Robles in any Bryant deal.

Notably, Washington has agreed to terms with Asdrúbal Cabrera on a one-year deal since Rosenthal’s report. Perhaps that takes them out of the running for Bryant or Nolan Arenado, two of the top trade candidates on the market, regardless. Cabrera, though, wouldn’t figure to stand in the way of an acquisition of a player as good as Bryant or Arenado. Indeed, Washington still doesn’t seem to be entirely ruling out a signing of star free agent Josh Donaldson. There’s yet opportunity to circle back to more eye-catching names than Cabrera and Starlin Castro, who the Nationals brought aboard yesterday.

Understandably, the Cubs seem to be setting a high price in talks on Bryant. Interested suitors, meanwhile, are wary of Bryant’s service time grievance. At the moment, the 28-year-old has two years of team control remaining. His $18.5MM projected salary is notable but still an unquestionable bargain for a player of his caliber. If Bryant wins the grievance, however (an outcome that would be unexpected but hardly impossible), he’d reach free agency at the end of next season instead. In that case, he would still be a highly appealing trade chip, but his value would no doubt take a hit. Thus, Bryant seems likely to stay put until the grievance is resolved.

Either way, it doesn’t appear Bryant will be headed to the nation’s capital, barring an unforeseen reignition of talks. Teams who lose out on Donaldson and Arenado would figure to be Bryant’s most ardent pursuers. The Braves, Rangers, and Twins have been among the most active searchers for upgrades at the hot corner. Of course, there’s no urgent need for the Cubs to trade Bryant, who, despite the pending grievance, might still be amenable to working out a long-term deal.

Quick Hits: Cubs, Bryant, Tigers, Puig, Mets, Dellin

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A service-time grievance and trade rumors have been dominant topics this offseason centering on Cubs superstar Kris Bryant. But Bryant, who will turn 28 on Saturday, would still prefer to spend his entire career with the Cubs, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score hears. That depends in part on whether the club would be willing to give the third baseman “fair value” in an extension, though. To this point, there hasn’t been any word about serious extension talks between the two sides. As of now, after his grievance hearing in October, the main question is whether Bryant has one or two years of team control left. The decision figures to have a significant impact on his future.

More from around the game…

  • If free-agent outfielder Yasiel Puig ends up scoring a multiyear contract, which is far from a sure thing, it’s “unlikely” the Tigers will be the team that gives it to him, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com writes. That said, credible outfield possibilities in free agency are decreasing, and the Tigers look to be in desperate need of help there. Their projected 2020 trio of JaCoby Jones, Christin Stewart and Harold Castro combined for minus-1.7 fWAR in 2019.
  • The Mets opened up a windfall of cash when they agreed to an amended contract with injury-laden outfielder Yoenis Cespedes two weeks ago. A few days later, the team reached a guaranteed $10.5MM deal with reliever Dellin Betances. However, according to general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, there’s no connection between the two transactions. “The specifics of Cespedes’ resolution didn’t necessarily drive this decision. It was more the desire to get this player,” said Van Wagenen, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Van Wagenen added that the Mets’ pursuit of Betances began at the general managers’ meetings in November, long before they changed Cespedes’ contract.
  • It seems interest in outfielder Kim Jae-Hwan has been hard to come by since he was posted Dec. 5, but the free agent has every intention of riding out the process, his agent, Kim Pyung-ki, told Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News. Kim only has until Sunday to find a contract; otherwise, he’ll return to his Korea Baseball Organization club, the Doosan Bears, and won’t be eligible for another posting until November. So far this offseason, only the Marlins have been connected to Kim, but “they seemed lukewarm in their response after watching footage of Kim in action,” Yoo writes. And Miami has signed fellow outfielder Corey Dickerson, perhaps taking it out of the Kim sweepstakes entirely.

Poll: Will Cubs End Up Trading A Star?

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When the Cubs came up short of the postseason this year, it broke a string of four consecutive appearances. It also prompted the organization to prepare for some major changes. To this point, we’ve heard lots of chatter featuring the team’s biggest stars as trade candidates. But no real change … yet.

It’s a bit of a curious situation. By all indications, the Cubs have reached the internal decision to get under the luxury tax line. There are clear financial incentives for teams to do so, at least every few seasons, to duck the biggest monetary penalties under the current CBA. But … now? After assembling this long-awaited core? And after signing Craig Kimbrel six months ago, in the middle of the season?

We’ve been led to believe that the Cubs baseball operations department feels it must explore deals involving its best players because it simply doesn’t have authorization to spend otherwise. And the status quo isn’t optimal for 2020 or beyond. That situation is rather difficult to square strategically with the Kimbrel signing, which occupied all of the team’s remaining flexibility. But perhaps ownership decided on this course more recently. The team is facing major Wrigley renovation cost overruns, albeit possibly of their own making.

Whatever the background, the situation remains: if the Cubs wish to change their roster, so far as we can discern, it’ll have to come via trade. The Cubs could try to shave some salary associated with the ill-fated Jason Heyward, Tyler Chatwood, and Daniel Descalso deals, though that doesn’t figure to be easy and would cost prospect capital to pull off. With a farm system already picked over for prior additions, any major overhaul will almost certainly require the departure of quite a significant player.

Javier Baez seems more like an extension target than a trade candidate, but we’ve heard loads of talk about Kris Bryant (at least, once his grievance is resolved). Willson Contreras was in the news quite a bit earlier in the winter. Yu Darvish doesn’t seem inclined to waive his no-trade rights, but could Jose Quintana be discussed? Or even Kyle Hendricks? Kyle Schwarber would no doubt be made available in some scenarios. And the team evidently isn’t seeing eye to eye with first baseman Anthony Rizzo; might there be a chance he’s moved?

At this point, we don’t really have great reason to think any particular player is likely to be sent out. Bryant and Contreras certainly occupy in-demand positions, but there hasn’t been a strong rumor indicating that a swap is approaching. We haven’t even heard specific rumors on all of the players listed above, but can the Cubs really take anyone off the table at this point?

There’s still loads of uncertainty, so it’s a good time to ask for everyone’s best guesses. So … will they make a deal? (Poll link for app users.)

Will Cubs trade a major player?
Yes 67.57% (13,476 votes)
No 32.43% (6,469 votes)
Total Votes: 19,945

And which player is likeliest to be moved? (Poll link for app users. Response order randomized.)

Who are Cubs likeliest to trade?
Kris Bryant 56.31% (11,888 votes)
Kyle Schwarber 17.56% (3,708 votes)
Willson Contreras 12.05% (2,545 votes)
Jose Quintana 7.79% (1,644 votes)
Anthony Rizzo 2.51% (530 votes)
Yu Darvish 2.13% (449 votes)
Javier Baez 1.01% (214 votes)
Kyle Hendricks 0.63% (134 votes)
Total Votes: 21,112

Quick Hits: Cishek, Red Sox, Cubs, Indians

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We’ll highlight a couple notes from around the league to kick off Sunday morning.

  • Veteran reliever Steve Cishek, a Cape Cod native, “would like” to sign with the Red Sox, hears Peter Gammons of the Athletic (Twitter link). Cishek is among the top relief arms remaining in a generally weak free agent class for late-game options. The 33-year-old submariner compiled a dazzling 2.55 ERA in 134.1 innings over the last two years with the Cubs. However, his age and a pedestrian combination of strikeouts (24.3%) and walks (10.3%) over that time figure to tamp down his market. The MLBTR staff forecast a modest two-year, $10MM deal for Cishek at the start of the offseason. However, it’s not clear Boston would even be willing to dole out that kind of money, Gammons notes, in light of the Sox’s failure to match the Blue Jays’ one-year, $4MM offer to reel in Travis Shaw, a player whom Boston liked. Cishek’s market has seemingly been quiet to this point, with only the Twins known to have checked in a few weeks back.
  • The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma explored the facility of new Cubs’ director of hitting Justin Stone. A biomechanics expert, Stone broke down a generic hitter’s swing and bat path, perhaps offering a sneak-peek into the work he’ll do with Chicago’s batters next season. The subscription-only piece is worth a read for those interested in how biomechanics is being used to help hitters optimize their individual swings.
  • The Indians have hired former big league infielder Andy Tracy to manage their AAA affiliate in Columbus, reports Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Tracy served as Columbus’ hitting coach in 2019. The former 28th-round draft choice managed in the low minors in the Phillies’ organization back in 2012.

Outfield Market Notes: Akiyama, Puig, Dickerson

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Potential Japanese import Shogo Akiyama, 31, remains a popular target on the free agent market. Yesterday’s reports affirmed the Reds and Padres atop the list of pursuers. The long-time Seibu Lions centerfielder is said to have 3-year offers on the table, per MLB Network Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Cubs and Diamondbacks have also consistently been linked to the left-handed hitter, while the Rays and Blue Jays have had reported interest at various times during the offseason.

The 45th-ranked free agent on our Top 50 Free Agents list, Akiyama is one of the only true centerfield options on the open market, and he carries enough bat to find a place near the top of a batting order. His on-base ability in particular is drawing teams to his door, per Heyman. He carries a career .301/.376/.454 line from 9 seasons in the NPB, with OBPs floating right around .400 over the past five seasons.

MLBTR’s Dylan A. Chase asked readers early in the offseason to predict which NPB import would collect the largest guarantee. Akiyama landed firmly between Yoshitomo Tsutsugo and Shun Yamaguchi. We now know Tsutsugo claimed $12MM from the Rays while Yamaguchi got $6.35MM from the Blue Jays. Both deals are for two seasons. So while it’s reasonable to expect Akiyama to come on a fairly reasonable contract, the dearth of centerfield options could drive the bidding beyond either deal’s total guarantee.

Elsewhere among outfielders, the Marlins remain interested in Yasiel Puig. The volatile Cuban outfielder would certainly entertain Floridians, even if the .267/.327/.458 line he put up for the Reds and Indians in 2019 isn’t necessarily awe-inspiring. He did technically produce at an above-average rate with a 101 wRC+.

The Marlins, however, seem to be leaning towards Corey Dickerson at the moment, per FNTSY Sports Radio’s Craig Mish (via Twitter). The Fish have outfield prospects knocking on the door (namely, Monte Harrison and Jesus Sanchez), as well as intriguing talent a little further away (JJ Bleday, Victor Victor Mesa, Kameron Misner) – but they continue to explore adding offensive talent for the near-term.

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