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White Sox Claim Tayron Guerrero

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The White Sox have claimed righty Tayron Guerrero off waivers from the Marlins, per a club announcement. He had been designated for assignment on non-tender day to clear roster space.

Guerrero pumps 99 and increasingly proved capable last year of drawing swings and misses (13.3%) while also getting his first pitches over for strikes (63.4%). But he hasn’t yet figured out how to consistently convert his physical tools into big-league outs.

Last year, Guerrero averaged over seven walks per nine innings to go with 8.4 K/9 and an ugly 6.26 ERA. Perhaps the Chicago organization has mechanical or pitch usage ideas to help the towering hurler as he moves from South Beach to the South Side.

White Sox Interested In Yoshitomo Tsutsugo

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Past reports have already linked the Blue Jays and Marlins to Yoshitomo Tsutsugo’s market, and now MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that three AL Central teams are also in the mix.  The White Sox, Tigers, and Twins all have some interest in the Japanese slugger, who has hit 185 homers for Yokohama since the start of the 2014 season.  Tsutsugo’s left-handed power would fit in any of the three teams’ lineups, though his limited defensive capability as a first baseman or outfielder could see him mostly play first base if he wound up in Minnesota, since Nelson Cruz is locked into DH duties.  Chicago could deploy Tsutsugo along with Jose Abreu in the first base/DH mix or play Tsutsugo in the outfield on days when Yasmani Grandal is getting a DH or first base day, while Tsutsugo would simply step right into an everyday role for the hitting-starved Tigers.

Latest On Madison Bumgarner’s Market

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TODAY, 1:58pm: The Cardinals could also have interest in Bumgarner, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes.

WEDNESDAY, 7:52pm: The Reds are indeed among the teams with ongoing interest in Bumgarner, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. Cincinnati has been aggressive thus far and has also been linked to free-agent outfielder Marcell Ozuna, further backing reports that they’re willing to sign players who rejected a qualifying offer.

5:35pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggests otherwise regarding the White Sox, writing that they’ve been zeroed in on Wheeler and have yet to even enter into negotiations with Bumgarner’s camp.

2:45pm: Zack Wheeler is off the board on a reported five-year, $118MM agreement with the Phillies, and it sounds like a decision from fellow free agent Madison Bumgarner might not be far behind. Even before word of Wheeler’s agreement broke, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweeted that some within the industry also expect Bumgarner to sign before the Winter Meetings begin next week.

At this point, the Twins and White Sox are among the “heaviest” suitors for the longtime Giants lefty, tweets Andy Martino of SNY, who adds that the Yankees are involved “to some degree.” Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that even after the Braves signed Cole Hamels to a one-year, $18MM deal earlier today, they’re still not completely out of the Bumgarner bidding. And ESPN’s Buster Olney somewhat speculatively links the Reds, who also pursued but missed out on Wheeler, to the Bumgarner market as well (Twitter link). Other clubs are surely involved as well.

It seems unlikely that the bidding for Bumgarner will escalate to the same heights as the Wheeler market, although USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted earlier that the Braves jumped on Hamels in part due to concerns that Bumgarner’s price could approach $100MM.

Regardless of where he lands, there’s little doubt that Bumgarner is among the best arms on the market this winter. He’s not the clear-cut ace that he was earlier in his career when he was busy establishing himself as a postseason legend, but the 30-year-old Bumgarner still posted a 3.90 ERA and a matching FIP through 207 2/3 innings this past season. His average fastball velocity (91.4 mph) and strikeout rate (8.8 K/9, 24.1 percent) are both down a bit from peak levels, but Bumgarner still displayed impeccable command (1.9 BB/9) this past season and topped 30 starts for the first time since his injuring his shoulder in 2017’s dirt-bike debacle.

Bumgarner has made 55 starts across the past two seasons, pitching to a 3.66 ERA (110 ERA+, 3.94 FIP) while averaging 8.3 strikeouts and 2.3 walks per nine innings pitched. He rejected a qualifying offer from the Giants, meaning he’ll require some draft and possibly international bonus forfeitures (with exact compensation dependent on which team ultimately signs him). At this point, there’s little indication that the incumbent Giants are a serious player for Bumgarner, but they’re in position to recoup a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of next year’s draft (as they did when Will Smith signed with the Braves).

Braves Sign Cole Hamels

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1:15pm: The Braves have formally announced the signing and (unlike most clubs) confirmed the terms of the contract in their press release. Their 40-man roster is now up to 38 players.

11:18am: The Braves have struck a one-year deal with lefty Cole Hamels, per ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). It’s said to include a $18MM guarantee for the John Boggs client.

Hamels can still get the job done as he closes in on his 36th birthday. Despite losing more than a full tick on his fastball from 2018-2019, he generated swings and misses at close to a twelve percent rate — much as he has done throughout his 14-year career. Since landing with the Cubs in the second half of the 2018 campaign, Hamels has spun 218 innings of 3.30 ERA ball over 39 starts while maintaining 9.0 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.

This match has long made sense — for all the reasons the team decided last year to ink fellow veteran southpaw Dallas Keuchel to a rental contract. MLBTR predicted Hamels to land in Atlanta in our ranking of the top fifty free agents.

Entering the winter, we believed Hamels could command a two-year deal at a $15MM AAV. But it emerged soon after the market opened that the veteran southpaw actually preferred a single-season mercenary arrangement. That’s just what he’ll get, and he’ll command a bit of a salary premium by foregoing any long-term security.

Hamels drew widespread interest over the past month. That continued into the month of December, with Bob Nightengale reporting (Twitter link) that a half-dozen organizations were still involved as of yesterday. The Phillies, White Sox, Rangers, and — surprisingly — the Giants were among the teams in the market until the end, per the report.

That Philadelphia link only further increases the NL East intrigue that we’re bound to see in 2020. While he is a few years removed from his tenure with the Phils, Hamels will always be known first and foremost as a long-time Phillies hurler who was one of the team’s key players during its last run of success.

Now, Hamels will try to help the Braves get over the hump. The Atlanta org has won the past two division crowns, but hasn’t yet managed to translate that success into the postseason. Hamels promises to step in for Keuchel as a durable veteran who has been there and done that plenty of times over a long and prosperous career.

This is the latest early strike for the Braves, who have already ticked through quite a few items on the checklist before the Winter Meetings even kick off. Hamels isn’t the top-of-the-rotation arm that might be preferred, but his addition doesn’t preclude further adds. For now, though, the focus will likely remain on re-signing or replacing third baseman Josh Donaldson.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

White Sox Reportedly Among Strongest Pursuers Of Zack Wheeler

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  • Speaking of Wheeler, it seems that a deal is indeed on the cusp of coming together. Ken Rosenthal said as much in an appearance on MLB Network (Twitter link), noting that we could even see an agreement struck today. Rosenthal believes it’s a three-team race between the Phillies, White Sox, and Reds, though he cautions that the bidding isn’t fully limited to those organizations. We’ll be keeping a close watch on Wheeler.

Phillies Actively Pursuing Zack Wheeler

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There’s momentum in the market for righty Zack Wheeler, who is reportedly already sitting on a nine-figure offer. The Phillies are now perhaps the strongest pursuer of the 29-year-old, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports.

With the Philadelphia organization firmly entering the picture, Wheeler is sitting in an enviable position. There are a host of other teams still in the picture. Olney cites the Reds, White Sox, and Rangers as remaining involved. We’ve previously heard of intense interest from the Twins, who were reportedly still in the picture as of yesterday.

In another report this morning, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter) suggests that the Reds and White Sox are the other teams most clearly in the mix with the Phillies. But it’s still a fluid bidding situation, so far as is known publicly. Indeed, Rosenthal adds that the Angels “have shown real interest,” though their status at the moment isn’t clear.

This could be building into a perfect storm for Wheeler, whose big arm and relative youth hold obvious appeal. It seems teams have come to terms with his history of arm issues and are banking on a two-year track record of durability. In our ranking of the top 50 free agents, we predicted widespread interest to drive Wheeler to a five-year, $100MM deal with the Phillies. It now seems he will top that guarantee; Olney even floats the possibility that a team will end up offering a sixth year to land the in-demand hurler.

White Sox Re-Sign Ryan Burr, Caleb Frare

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The White Sox have re-signed right-hander Ryan Burr and lefty Caleb Frare to minor league contracts and invited them to Major League Spring Training, tweets Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. Both were non-tendered yesterday but quickly rejoined the organization on new minor league pacts that don’t require the Sox to allocate a spot on the 40-man roster.

Burr, 25, pitched 19 2/3 innings for the ChiSox in 2019 and posted a 4.58 ERA with a 20-to-8 K/BB ratio and a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate in that time. He throws fairly hard, averaging 95 mph on his heater, but he wasn’t able to generate many swinging strikes in his limited time in the big leagues (8.4 percent). The Arizona State product was a star closer in college and has a strong minor league track record (2.02 ERA, 10.8 K/9 in 173 1/3 innings), so the Sox are surely glad to get him back in the organization as a depth piece.

Frare, meanwhile, has logged 9 2/3 innings with the Sox over the past two seasons with 12 punchouts against eight walks. The 26-year-old was acquired from the Yankees prior to the 2018 deadline in a swap that sent international funds to New York, but his 2019 campaign in Triple-A was the worst of his career. Frare whiffed an impressive 34 hitters in just 22 1/3 innings, but he also issued 19 walks, hit three batters and allowed five homers en route to a 7.33 ERA. He’s dominated up through Double-A in the minors and routinely posts big strikeout totals, however, so perhaps he can eventually unlock something more at the game’s top levels.

Dodgers, White Sox Have Had “Preliminary” Trade Talks On Joc Pederson

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For a second consecutive offseason, the White Sox are showing some interest in Dodgers outfielder Joc Pederson, writes USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Last winter’s talks between the two sides (obviously) didn’t lead to a deal, but the Sox and Dodgers have once again “engaged in preliminary trade talks” surrounding Pederson, per the report.

Chicago’s need for a right fielder is evident just by looking up and down the roster, and GM Rick Hahn has clearly indicated that right field could be an area of focus this winter. Pederson would provide a short-term option for the Sox in that regard, as he’s entering his final season of club control and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $8.5MM in 2020.

Pederson, 28 next April, hit .249/.339/.538 in 514 plate appearances with the Dodgers in 2019, belting a career-high 36 home runs along the way (although any home run totals from 2019 should be taken with a grain of salt, given the juiced ball and leaguewide home run boom). Both OPS+ and wRC+ regarded Pederson as 27 percent better than a league-average hitter — the third time in the past four years that he’s been to 25 to 28 percent better than average in the estimation of those park- and league-adjusted metrics. For a White Sox club that saw its right fielders post an astonishingly terrible .220/.277/.288 batting line in 2019, Pederson’s appeal isn’t hard to see.

That said, it’s also worth noting that Pederson has been used primarily as a platoon player, so he’s not exactly a cure-all to the White Sox’ ailments in right. The Dodgers afforded Pederson just 50 plate appearances against lefties in 2019, and in 375 career plate appearances against same-handed pitchers, he’s a .188/.263/.310 hitter. The Sox (or any other club) would surely need a right-handed-hitting complement for Pederson in 2020, but a part-time asset in that mold shouldn’t be too tough to unearth.

As for the Dodgers, their motivation for moving Pederson likely comes down to a potential outfield surplus. Cody Bellinger, Alex Verdugo, A.J. Pollock, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez are all viable option in the outfield, and Matt Beaty also saw time in left field after spending most of his minor league career as a corner infielder. Outfielder Kyle Garlick made his MLB debut in 2019 as well.

That’s not to say that Pederson is purely expendable, but the Dodgers’ outfield depth is a clear source of strength. And with Pederson set to hit the open market in a year’s time, flipping him for some help in another area of need — the bullpen, perhaps — while freeing up additional dollars to spend in free agency could be a sensible pursuit. That’d be all the more true were the front office to succeed in signing one of Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson, both of whom are reported to be of interest. A successful pursuit of either premium third baseman could push Justin Turner to first or second base, crowding the right side of the infield and making Bellinger even likelier to spend all of his time in the outfield. (Alternatively, it could make Turner himself a trade candidate.)

Of course, the Dodgers have perhaps the deepest pockets of any club in baseball, so there’s an argument that they should simply keep Pederson, pick up an additional high-end talent or two, and operate with an unparalleled level of depth in spite of the cost. But that hasn’t been this front office or ownership group’s preferred course of action in recent years; the Dodgers haven’t paid the luxury tax since 2016 and are currently about $29MM shy of the $208MM luxury barrier, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.

Zack Wheeler Bidding Already In Nine Figures

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3:37pm: The White Sox are “willing” to push beyond the five-year, $100MM mark in order to sign Wheeler, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports. Whether they’ve actually made such an offer isn’t clear.

11:57am: It seems the Wheeler auction could be building to a crescendo. It’s possible and “maybe even probable” that he’ll sign before the Winter Meetings open next week, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter).

9:35am: Free agent righty Zack Wheeler is going to break the $100MM barrier with his next contract, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription link). Per the report, Wheeler already has at least one offer in hand of at least $100MM.

MLBTR foresaw intense bidding for Wheeler entering the offseason, when we ranked him fourth in earning power among all free agents. It seems our prediction of five years and $100MM — aggressive at the time — will actually end up just on the light side. The question remains how far north of that figure Wheeler will roll.

Rosenthal lists the White Sox, Twins, Reds, Rangers and Blue Jays as teams with ongoing interest in Wheeler. That’s a non-exclusive list; quite a few other clubs have also been tied to the 29-year-old. The involvement of such organizations reflects the reason we were so bullish on Wheeler’s market entering the winter. Simply put, he checks a lot of boxes for a lot of teams.

It’ll cost draft compensation to sign Wheeler, but that’s not an overwhelming deterrent for a still-youthful player who possesses top-of-the-rotation stuff. Wheeler has been healthy for two seasons while maintaining a big heater and compelling peripherals. He threw 195 1/3 innings in 2019, which is quite a sum in this day and age. That’s a good sign for a pitcher who battled through health problems before a bounceback ’18 campaign. And it seems teams are taking the view that his 2019 ERA (3.96) doesn’t fully reflect his true talent level.

So how much is too much for a pitcher with Wheeler’s history of arm issues and less-than-perfect platform season? That’s what we may soon find out. But in thinking through his value, it’s worth recalling the broader market situation.

In terms of supply, Wheeler occupies an interesting position. He’s clearly not to the level of Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, but arguably possesses a much loftier ceiling — with a combination of premium stuff and relative youth — than any of the other available starters. Teams not interested in approaching or exceeding the $200MM level of spending have understandably zeroed in on Wheeler as a potential budget ace. And there’s no shortage of organizations with conceivable interest. Multiple big-spending contenders are chasing top arms along with the teams listed above.

Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To 2019 Non-Tender Deadline

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With tonight’s 8pm ET deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming, there’ll be several players who agree to one-year contracts for the 2020 season today. It’s common for the day of the non-tender deadline to be a big one for arbitration agreements, though it’s also worth noting that many of the players who agree to terms today will do so at a rate that’s lower than the salary figures projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Broadly speaking, players who agree to terms on a salary this far in advance tend to be those who were at risk of being non-tendered, and their teams are able to use tonight’s deadline as leverage in bringing about a deal that saves them a bit of cash. A look at some of the early instances of players agreeing to terms reveals this to be true already; Mike Zunino ($4.5MM salary vs. $4.9MM projection), Wilmer Difo ($1MM salary vs. $1.2MM projection) and Scott Alexander ($875K salary vs. $1MM projection) have all agreed to lesser terms rather than risk being cast out into the free-agent market.

We’ll keep track of today’s players who avoid arbitration in this post and update throughout the day…

  • The Padres have a deal for $1.5MM with infielder Greg Garcia, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. That’s a shade under his $1.7MM projection for the 30-year-old.
  • Infielder Orlando Arcia has avoided arbitration with the Brewers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Though he’s set to lose some playing time, it seems Arcia will be expected to retain a notable role. He’s considered a talented defender at short and was long expected to come around with the bat, but it hasn’t happened yet.
  • Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes is in agreement on a $1.1MM deal, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s a guaranteed deal, which isn’t standard for arbitration pacts. Barnes had projected at $1.3MM on the heels of a disappointing season. It seems he’ll be asked to function as the club’s second backstop in 2020.

Earlier Moves

  • The Rangers have a deal in place with right-hander Nick Goody, the club announced. He’ll earn $915K, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Goody projected to earn $1.1MM, so he’s taking a discount on that mark with his new club.
  • Just-acquired righty Jharel Cotton has agreed to a $640K deal with the Cubs, Rosenthal tweets. Cotton had projected at $800K but he’s surely focused first and foremost on getting a significant MLB opportunity. He didn’t quite make it back to the majors in 2019 after a long injury layoff but figures to represent a swingman option for the Chicago club in 2020.
  • Outfielder Alex Dickerson and lefty Wandy Peralta are in agreement with the Giants, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Dickerson settled for $925K, which is well under his $1.2MM projected earning power. The 29-year-old has had trouble staying healthy but usually hits when he is on the field. He rewarded the San Francisco organization for taking a shot on him last year by turning in a .290/.351/.529 batting line in 171 plate appearances. As for Peralta, he lands right at his projected value with a $805K salary. The 28-year-old was claimed off waivers late in the 2019 season.
  • The White Sox and James McCann avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5.4MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. McCann’s deal checks in a half million dollars north of his $4.9MM projection. Chicago’s addition of Yasmani Grandal has likely relegated McCann to backup duties, so he’ll be a rather expensive second catcher for the South Siders. A free agent next winter, McCann hit .273/.328/.460 with a career-high 18 home runs, but his bat went dormant in the season’s final few months and his .359 BABIP seems particularly ripe for regression.
  • The Athletics avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever T.J. McFarland by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.8MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. That salary effectively puts McFarland in line for the same salary he’d have received had he had his $1.85MM club option exercised by the Diamondbacks. Arizona, however, bought him out for $50K and then ran him through waivers, at which point the A’s claimed him. The 30-year-old posted a 4.82 ERA with a middling 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings this past season, but he’s a ground-ball behemoth (61.1 percent). He’ll be a free agent next winter and had been projected at $2.1MM.
  • Infielder Ehire Adrianza and the Twins agreed on a $1.6MM salary for the upcoming season, Nightengale tweets. The versatile utilityman hit .272/.349/.416 in 236 plate appearances while appearing at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Adrianza, a free agent next winter, was projected at $1.9MM.
  • Outfielder Travis Jankowski agreed to a rare arbitration pay cut with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. After earning $1.165MM in 2019, he’ll be owed $1.05MM in 2020 if he makes the club. A fractured wrist cost him much of the season in 2019, and he was just 4-for-22 when healthy and in the Majors. Jankowski did have a nice season in Triple-A, though (.393 OBP in 39 games), and the Reds gave up some international funds to acquire him, which seemingly indicated that they planned to tender him a contract. He was projected to earn $1.2MM.

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