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Bryan Shaw, Nick Avila Won’t Make White Sox Opening Day Roster

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March 28: The Giants informed reporters, including Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, that Avila has been returned to them from the White Sox.

March 26: The White Sox have informed right-handers Bryan Shaw and Nick Avila that they won’t be part of the team’s Opening Day roster, James Fegan of The Athletic reports (Twitter link).  The two pitchers are at opposite ends of the experience spectrum, as Shaw is a 12-year MLB veteran in camp on a minor league contract, while Avila has yet to pitch beyond the Double-A level but was Chicago’s pick in the Rule 5 Draft.

Avila’s R5 status creates an immediate obstacle, since the Sox are required to keep him on their active roster for the entire 2023 season in order to fully obtain his rights.  (Or, at least 90 days on the active roster and the rest of the time on the injured list, in the event of an injury.)  If the White Sox don’t meet this criteria for Avila, they have to offer him back to the Giants, his original team, for $50K.  Fegan writes that the Sox might still look for ways to keep Avila around, though outside of a proper trade agreement with the Giants or a suddenly injury to Avila, Chicago’s options are fairly limited.

The 25-year-old Avila had a stunning 1.14 ERA over 55 1/3 combined innings at the high-A and Double-A levels in 2022.  It was the righty’s first full season as a reliever and he clearly took to the new role, also posting good strikeout and walk rates in addition to his minuscule ERA.  MLB Pipeline ranks Avila as the 20th best prospect in Chicago’s farm system, giving his fastball and cutter both 60-grades and noting how Avila’s five-pitch arsenal gives him “a more diverse repertoire than most relievers.”

Avila couldn’t keep the production up in Spring Training, however, posting a 7.20 ERA over 10 innings of work even though his underlying metrics were still good.  By contrast, Shaw had a 1.08 ERA in 8 1/3 Spring Training innings, but it wasn’t enough to land the 35-year-old a spot on the active roster.

Shaw isn’t an Article XX(B) free agent and thus didn’t have an automatic opt-out decision on March 25, though it is quite possible his minor league deal included some kind of different opt-out language.  His impressive spring numbers might certainly convince another team to take a look at Shaw if he does end up leaving the White Sox organization (either by opt-out or release), and a reunion with the Guardians can’t be ruled out considering his longstanding ties to Cleveland.

Shaw spent the last two seasons (and seven of his 12 MLB seasons overall) in Cleveland, though he struggled to a 5.40 ERA over 58 1/3 innings out of the Guardians bullpen in 2022.  Apart from a solid 2021 campaign, Shaw hasn’t been very reliable for most of the last five seasons, as he has a 5.23 ERA over 268 1/3 innings since the start of the 2018 campaign.

With Avila and Shaw out of the running, Gregory Santos and Keynan Middleton appear to be the favorites to land the final spot in the otherwise set Chicago bullpen.  Santos also came to the White Sox out of San Francisco’s farm system, and after being acquired from the Giants in a December trade, the righty has yet to allow a run over 8 1/3 spring innings.  Middleton is in camp on a minor league deal, and has a rockier 6.00 ERA in nine frames of Cactus League work.

Romy Gonzalez, Gregory Santos To Break Camp With White Sox

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The White Sox Opening Day roster continues to come into focus as Daryl Van Schouwen of the Sun Times reports that both utilityman Romy Gonzalez and right-hander Gregory Santos are expected to make the team out of camp this spring. The pair join outfielder Oscar Colas and infielder Hanser Alberto, who were previously reported to be making the Opening Day roster as well.

Gonzalez has mostly played second base during his 42 games in the big leagues so far, but has also appeared at shortstop, third base, and in both outfielder corners, making him a versatile bench piece for manager Pedro Grifol to utilize as needed. A career .241/.261/.350 hitter in the majors, Gonzalez doesn’t bring much to the table with his bat, but a .795 OPS in 286 minor league games and an .808 OPS this spring both indicate the 26 year-old Gonzalez could take a step forward with more exposure to big league pitching, though he will surely have to cut down on his concerning 35.2% career strikeout rate in order to do so. Gonzalez’s spot on the Opening Day roster likely comes at the expense of third baseman Jake Burger, who has posted an above average 114 wRC+ in 66 career big league games but is largely limited to the infield corners in terms of versatility. Gonzalez will join a bench that appears poised to include Alberto, Gavin Sheets, and Seby Zavala.

Santos seemed to be a potential favorite for a roster spot after Bryan Shaw and Nick Avila were told they would not make the roster earlier today. Chicago acquired Santos in December from the Giants, who Santos had pitched just 5 2/3 innings for at the big league level, allowing seven earned runs in the process. Santos has a 19.3% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate for his career across the major and minor leagues, and tends to keep the ball on the ground, with groundball rates between 50 and 60% in the minor leagues. Santos seems likely to join Jose Ruiz and Jake Diekman in middle relief for the White Sox this year, with Kendall Graveman, Aaron Bummer, Joe Kelly, and Reynaldo Lopez figuring to get more late-inning work to begin the season.

White Sox Release Bryan Shaw

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  • Shortly after alerting him that he would not make their Opening Day roster, the White Sox announced that they had released right-hander Bryan Shaw from his minor league deal with the club. The veteran Shaw sports a 3.92 ERA in 714 2/3 innings of work during his career and is now poised to look for another club interested in his services for his age-35 season. Shaw made a strong case for himself this spring, pitching to a 1.08 ERA in 8 1/3 innings during camp.

White Sox To Select Contracts Of Oscar Colas, Hanser Alberto; Leury Garcia Won’t Make Opening Day Roster

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3:27 PM: According to James Fegan of The Athletic, Hanser Alberto is expected to make the Opening Day roster with Garcia not making the team.

2:57 PM: The White Sox continue to shape their roster in advance of Opening Day, and according to reporter Francys Romero (Twitter link), outfielder Oscar Colas has been told by the team that he will break camp.  In a more surprising development, Leury Garcia will not be part of the 26-man roster, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reports (via Twitter).

Garcia was initially acquired from the Rangers in an August 2013 trade, and has since become a longstanding roster staple.  Used mostly as a bench player over his 10 seasons with the White Sox, Garcia’s ability to play all over the diamond has made him a solid backup and fill-in option, as he has logged many games at all three outfield positions, shortstop, third base, and second base.  This versatility has helped offset Garcia’s lack of offense, as he has only a .253/.293/.350 career slash line over 2402 plate appearances.

When Garcia entered the free agent market last winter, the Sox re-signed him to a three-year, $16.5MM deal that stood out as relatively steep for a 30-year-old career backup.  The decision to retain Garcia became even more questionable when his offense declined even further in 2022, as he hit a meager .210/.233/.267 over 315 PA.  Garcia’s 39 wRC+ was the lowest of any player in baseball last season with at least 300 plate appearances, and he was a sub-replacement -1.1 fWAR player overall.

In terms of other utility options, minor league signing Hanser Alberto has had a strong camp, and Romy Gonzalez is something of a utilityman-of-the-future down at Triple-A (plus, Gonzalez has already had a taste of the big leagues).  Since veteran shortstop Elvis Andrus is returning to the White Sox as their new second baseman, manager Pedro Grifol hinted yesterday to reporters (including The Athletic’s James Fegan) that Andrus’ presence made Garcia somewhat redundant.

“Our backup shortstop plays second base for us every day,” Grifol said.  “So, it’s not really a pressing need to have a utility player on our bench that is a shortstop.  We are not pressed to do that.  Would it be of value?  Yeah, maybe.  Not of great value, but of some value.“

It remains to be seen if Garcia would accept an assignment to the minor leagues, or if his omission from the roster is the beginning of the end of his time in the organization altogether.  The Sox would be eating the remaining $11MM on Garcia’s contract in the event of a release, and a trade or a waiver claim seems pretty unlikely since teams won’t want to absorb that salary.

As for Colas, there was little doubt that he would be heading north to the Windy City, and the 24-year-old now seems set to make his MLB debut on Opening Day.  Colas signed with Chicago for a $2.7MM bonus when the 2022 international signing period opened, and he hit a combined .314/.371/.524 with 23 homers over 526 combined PA at the high-A, Double-A, and Triple-A levels in 2022.

While Colas has only had okay numbers throughout Spring Training, his minor league dominance and his past track record in the Cuban National Series has indicated that he is ready for MLB competition.  Colas is expected to get the majority of work in right field, with Eloy Jimenez (when he isn’t at DH) and Gavin Sheets also in the mix.  Between the debuting Colas and the newly-signed Andrew Benintendi, Chicago’s outfield will have a new look, with Luis Robert returning as the incumbent in center field.

Veterans With Upcoming Opt-Outs On Minor League Deals

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Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement just over a year ago, and one of the provisions in that CBA is uniform opt-out opportunities for Article XX(B) free agents on minor league deals. An Article XX(B) free agent is one with at least six years of service time who finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. Any such player who signs a minor league deal more than ten days prior to Opening Day can opt out of that deal at three points if they haven’t been added to the 40-man roster: five days before Opening Day, May 1 and June 1.

This year, Opening Day is March 30, meaning that first opt-out opportunity is coming up this Saturday, March 25. Teams will have to make some decisions between now and then about whether or not to give these players roster spots or let them return to the open market to pursue other opportunities. With many teams dealing with spring injuries, some of these players should be able to find opportunities elsewhere if they can’t find it with their current organization. Their current clubs can prevent them from opting out by giving them a roster spot, but that may involve cutting someone else.

Players who don’t meet this criteria can also negotiate opt-out provisions into their contracts. First baseman Luke Voit has less than six years service time but has an opt-out in his deal with the Brewers, which he recently pushed to this Friday. But the players listed below will have them automatically.

Angels: RHP Chris Devenski

Devenski, 32, had some good seasons with the Astros in 2016 and 2017 but fell off in the two years after. He’s been either hurt or ineffective in the past three campaigns, not reaching 15 innings pitched in any of them. He tossed 14 2/3 frames last year between the Diamondbacks and Phillies with a combined 8.59 ERA. The Halos have a large number of relievers on their roster that can’t be optioned, which doesn’t leave a lot of room for someone like Devenski.

Braves: IF Ehire Adrianza, OF Kevin Pillar and RHP Jesse Chavez

Adrianza, 33, is a light-hitting utility infielder who was with the Nationals last year until the Braves acquired him at the deadline, though injuries limited him to just six games with Atlanta. Pillar, 34, has long been known as a glove-first outfielder. He was drafted by the Blue Jays and worked his way up to the majors when Alex Anthopoulos, now the president of baseball operations in Atlanta, was with the Jays. Pillar got into four games with the Dodgers last year before a shoulder fracture ended his season. Chavez, 39, started last year with the Cubs but was flipped to Atlanta in April for Sean Newcomb. The Braves then sent him to the Angels in the Raisel Iglesias deal but claimed him off waivers a few weeks later. He ended up throwing 69 1/3 innings on the year with a 3.76 ERA.

It’s possible that all three of these guys are on the verge of getting roster spots. The club recently optioned various players on the 40-man, including Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake, Jordan Luplow, Eli White and Nick Anderson. Grissom and Shewmake were in competition for the shortstop job but it seems they will get more seasoning in the minors while Orlando Arcia takes the gig, with Adrianza in backup infield role. Pillar was competing with Luplow and White for a job as a backup outfielder but it seems he may get the nod. The club clearly loves Chavez based on the fact that they acquired him twice last year. The 40-man roster already has a couple of open spots before they’ve even moved Huascar Ynoa and Tyler Matzek to the 60-day injured list. Both of them are going to be out for most or perhaps all of the year due to Tommy John surgery. Atlanta could therefore have four roster spots at their disposal, allowing them to select these three and whichever of Jared Shuster or Dylan Dodd gets the fifth starter job.

Brewers: OF Tyler Naquin

Naquin, 32 next month, is a solid platoon bat from the left side. For his career, he’s hit .274/.326/.468 against righties for a 109 wRC+, compared to a .210/.272/.339 line and 62 wRC+ against southpaws. With Tyrone Taylor set to miss the first month of the season with an elbow injury, the club could use another outfielder. As mentioned above, the Brewers also have Voit in camp on a minor league deal, which makes things a little crowded. Voit could have opted out of his deal last week but agreed to push his decision because he and the club seem happy with each other, but the roster decisions still need to be made.

Opening one spot on the 40-man will be easy, as Justin Wilson is set to miss most of the year recovering from Tommy John surgery and will surely be placed on the 60-day IL shortly. Aaron Ashby could also go to the 60-day as he’s out with a shoulder injury, though the latest reporting indicated that he was targeting a mid-May return, which the club might not want to close off. Beyond the 40-man questions, there’s the fit on the active roster to think about, as adding both Voit and Naquin would likely involve optioning Owen Miller and Brice Turang, or perhaps designating Keston Hiura for assignment. Brewers general manager Matt Arnold recently spoke about some of the “tough decisions” the club has to make.

Dodgers: OF Jason Heyward

Heyward signed an eight-year, $184MM deal with the Cubs prior to the 2016 campaign but never really lived up to expectations. Outside of the shortened 2020 season, he never posted a wRC+ higher than 100, which is league average. Last year, he hit .204/.278/.277 for a wRC+ of 61 in 48 games. He went on the injured list in late June with a knee injury and never returned. While on the IL, the Cubs announced they would be releasing Heyward at season’s end, despite still having one year left on his contract.

The Dodgers signed him to a minor league deal and will be responsible for paying him just the MLB minimum salary for any time spent on the big league roster, with the Cubs on the hook for the majority of his salary. Despite not hitting much in recent years, he’s always gotten good grades for his defense, though those numbers have naturally declined as he’s aged. Manager Dave Roberts has recently suggested Heyward is likely to make the club. They’ll need to open a roster spot but could do so easily by transferring Gavin Lux to the 60-day IL, as he’s expected to miss the entire season with a torn ACL.

Giants: C Roberto Pérez and RHP Joe Ross

Pérez, 34, has long been a well-regarded defensive catcher with a subpar bat. He has a career batting line of .207/.298/.360 but has also racked up 79 Defensive Runs Saved. He only played 21 games for the Pirates last year before hamstring surgery ended his season. The Giants already have two catchers on the roster in Joey Bart and Rule 5 pick Blake Sabol, but the latter can play other positions and has recently been getting some outfield work. Perhaps that allows Pérez to make the club as a more straightforward backup to Bart, which will necessitate a roster move. Luis González is expected to miss the first half of the season due to back surgery and could be move to the 60-day IL to open a spot for Perez.

Ross, 30 in May, had the second Tommy John surgery of his career last June and isn’t set to return for a while. He signed a minor league deal with the Giants in January and presumably intends to stick with the organization as he rehabs.

Mariners: OF Kole Calhoun

Calhoun, 35, has had many strong years at the plate but is coming off a pair of rough ones. In 2021, he made multiple trips to the IL for hamstring issues and only got into 51 games. Last year, he hit .196/.257/.330 with the Rangers, striking out in 32.1% of his plate appearances.

The M’s will likely have Julio Rodríguez, Teoscar Hernández, Jarred Kelenic and AJ Pollock in their outfield mix. Some recent injuries to Taylor Trammell and Dylan Moore perhaps helped Calhoun’s chances of carving out a bench role, but the club also has Cooper Hummel and Sam Haggerty on hand as outfield-capable utility players, and outfield prospect Cade Marlowe is on the 40-man roster.

Marlins: IF Yuli Gurriel and IF José Iglesias

Gurriel, 39 in June, has been an excellent hitter for much of his career but inconsistent of late. He dipped in 2020 but bounced back to winning a batting title in 2021. Another dip followed last year, as he hit .242/.288/.360 for a wRC+ of 85. Iglesias, 33, has long been a light-hitting glove-first shortstop, though his defensive grades have slipped of late. With the Rockies last year, he hit .292/.328/.380 for a wRC+ of 85.

Gurriel seems likely to get a spot based on the way he and the club danced with each other this offseason. They reportedly offered him a $2MM deal at one point but withdrew it after a week went by without a response, later circling back to get this minor league deal done. Iglesias also makes sense as insurance for the club now that Miguel Rojas has been traded to the Dodgers, leaving utility man Joey Wendle as the top option at short. If they want to select both, they’ll need two roster spots. One of them should be easy with Max Meyer set to miss most of the season due to Tommy John surgery and bound for the 60-day IL shortly.

Mets: RHP Tommy Hunter

Hunter, 36, is a 15-year veteran who has thrived as a reliever over the past 10 of those. However, injuries have been an issue recently, as he hasn’t topped 25 innings in a season since 2018. With the Mets last year, he posted a 2.42 ERA in 22 1/3 innings but made multiple trips to the IL due to back tightness.

The Mets’ bullpen suffered a huge blow recently with Edwin Díaz likely done for the season due to knee surgery, as Sam Coonrod and Bryce Montes de Oca also deal with injuries. That could open up a window for someone like Hunter, but the Mets have also said they’d prefer to have some optionable pitchers in the bullpen, which could work against him. If they do want Hunter in the mix, opening a roster spot will be easy with Díaz and José Quintana both destined for the 60-day IL soon.

Nationals: RHP Chad Kuhl, RHP Alex Colomé and LHP Sean Doolittle

Kuhl, 30, had some decent seasons pitching for the Pirates but had an inconsistent season with the Rockies last year. He had a 3.49 ERA through the end of June but then an 8.60 the rest of the way, finishing up at 5.72 combined. Colomé, 34, has been an effective reliever for many years but also found it hard to succeed in Coors. He signed with the Rockies last year and posted a 5.74 ERA on the year. He’s not too far removed from a ridiculous 0.81 ERA in the shortened 2020 season and a 2.80 in 2019.

Kuhl seems to be the favorite to replace Cade Cavalli in the rotation, with the latter set to miss the whole season due to Tommy John surgery. Colomé makes sense for the club given they have few settled options in their bullpen. Opening up two spots should be straightforward since Cavalli and Tanner Rainey are both candidates for the 60-day IL due to Tommy John surgery.

As for Doolittle, he recently spoke about taking it slow in his rehab from last year’s elbow sprain and brace procedure. He isn’t likely to be ready for Opening Day but seems happy with his rehab process and would therefore likely forgo his first opt-out opportunity.

Padres: IF Rougned Odor and RHP Craig Stammen

Odor, 29, has long been a one-dimensional hitter, providing power and little else. With the Orioles last year, he hit 13 home runs but slashed .207/.275/.357 for a wRC+ of 80. He’ll be trying to force his way into a bench role in San Diego. One spot will go to a backup catcher, leaving three spots for Odor, Adam Engel, José Azocar, Brandon Dixon, Matthew Batten, Tim Lopes and David Dahl. The club doesn’t have an obvious candidate for the 60-day IL, which could work against non-roster players like Odor, Lopes and Dahl.

As for Stammen, 39, he recently revealed that he suffered a torn capsule in his right shoulder and strained sub scapula and likely won’t pitch ever again.

Pirates: C Kevin Plawecki

Plawecki, 32, is a career .235/.313/.341 hitter, leading to a wRC+ of 80. That’s bit below average, even for a catcher, but he has good grades for his defense and framing and is considered a strong clubhouse leader. When he was designated by assignment by the Red Sox last year, some players, including current Pirate Rich Hill, spoke publicly about how much they didn’t like Plawecki’s departure. The Rangers added him for the final games of the season even though they weren’t in contention, seemingly valuing those same intangibles.

The Bucs will have Austin Hedges as their primary catcher but seem likely to select Plawecki to be the backup. Hedges is one of only two backstops currently on the 40-man. The other is prospect Endy Rodríguez, who was optioned to Triple-A last week. If Plawecki in indeed added, it’s possible that Jarlín García is headed for the 60-day IL, as he’s been shut down for the next four to five weeks with a nerve injury in his biceps area and won’t be able to return until May at the earliest.

Rangers: C Sandy León, LHP Danny Duffy and RHP Ian Kennedy

León, 34, is generally regarded as a glove-first option behind the plate. Last year, he split his time between the Guardians and Twins, hitting .169/.298/.211. For his career, he’s racked up 34 Defensive Runs Saved and has positive framing numbers from FanGraphs.

The Rangers have three catchers on their 40-man roster in Jonah Heim, Mitch Garver and Sam Huff. León might have a better path to playing time elsewhere, as multiple clubs around the league are dealing with injuries to their catching corps. Carson Kelly of the Diamondbacks was recently diagnosed with a forearm fracture, leaving them with youngsters Gabriel Moreno and José Herrera as their top two. The Athletics only have two catchers on their roster right now and one of them, Manny Piña, will open the season on the injured list.

Duffy, 34, spent years as an effective starter for the Royals, currently sporting a 3.95 career ERA in 234 games. However, he hasn’t pitched July of 2021, when a flexor strain in his forearm sent him to the IL. The Dodgers acquired him from the Royals, hoping for a return to health in the second half, but he suffered a setback. He then underwent surgery but the Dodgers took a chance on him again, signing him to a $3MM deal with a club option for 2023 and hoping for a return late in 2022. He never made it back to the mound and the Dodgers declined his option at season’s end. General manager Chris Young listed Duffy as a closer candidate in January, but he’s yet to appear in a game this spring.

Kennedy, 38, had an effective half season of relief with the Rangers in 2021, posting a 2.51 ERA before getting flipped to the Phillies. He had a 4.13 ERA after the deal and then slumped to a 5.36 mark with the Diamondbacks last year. The club doesn’t currently have an obvious candidate to put on the 60-day IL, which could work against Kennedy’s chances of cracking the roster.

Rays: IF/OF Charlie Culberson and OF Ben Gamel

Culberson, 34 next month, is a veteran journeyman who brings much defensive versatility to the table. He’s played every position except catcher and center field in his career. With the Rangers last year, he hit .252/.283/.357 for a wRC+ of 81.

Gamel, 31 in May, was with the Pirates last year and hit .232/.324/.369 for a wRC+ of 97. He’s had modest platoon splits for his career but they were exaggerated last year. The left-handed hitter slashed .252/.342/.409 against righties for a wRC+ of 112 but just .175/.273/.258 against southpaws for a wRC+ of 56.

The Rays have a tight roster and spent most of the winter making cuts from it, which could make it tough for either of these players to make it. But if either played is deemed worthy, Shane Baz is destined for the 60-day IL soon due to his Tommy John rehab, making it easy to open a spot for someone.

Reds: OF Chad Pinder, RHP Chase Anderson and RHP Hunter Strickland

Pinder, 31 next week, has spent his entire career with the Athletics until reaching free agency this winter. He’s a super utility guy, able to play anywhere on the field but catcher. He’s didn’t have his best season last year, walking just 3.7% of the time and striking out at a 31.1% clip, but his career batting line is a serviceable .242/.294/.417 for a wRC+ of 96.

Anderson, 35, had some good years on his track record but hasn’t been able to post an ERA under 6.00 since 2019. He got into nine games for the Reds last year with a 6.38 ERA. He was recently transferred from minor league camp to major league camp, suggesting he has a legitimate chance at earning a job.

Strickland, 34, had some good years with the Giants but has gone into journeyman mode recently. He made 66 appearances with the Reds last year, finishing with a 4.91 ERA while walking 11.6% of batters faced.

The Reds should be able to open a roster spot by transferring Justin Dunn to the 60-day IL, as he’s going to be out for a few months with a shoulder issue.

Rockies: IF Mike Moustakas

Moustakas, 34, had many good years with the Royals and Brewers but his four-year deal with the Reds didn’t go very well. He was fine in the shortened 2020 season but largely injured and ineffective for the past two years. He got into 78 contests last year but hit just .214/.295/.345.

Moving his home to Coors Field could give him a boost if he’s healthy. The Rockies could use help at third base after second baseman Brendan Rodgers suffered a potentially season-ending injury. The club’s plan is to move Ryan McMahon from third to second, freeing up the hot corner for someone like Moustakas.

Opening up a spot should be straightforward, with Rodgers and Sean Bouchard both set to miss extensive time and easy calls to be placed on the 60-day IL.

Royals: OF Jackie Bradley Jr. and IF Matt Duffy

Bradley, 33 next month, has long been an excellent defender with an okay bat, but his offense has been awful for the past two seasons. Last year, splitting his time between the Red Sox and Blue Jays, he hit .203/.255/.311 for a wRC+ of 56.

Duffy, 32, is a versatile utility player who can cover any infield position and has some limited corner outfield experience. He’s not coming off a great year at the plate, as he hit .250/.308/.311 with the Angels for a wRC+ of 78, but he’s had better results in the past.

The Royals optioned a few notable position players earlier today, potentially open the door for these two and Franmil Reyes to make the Opening Day squad. They can open up one 40-man roster spot by moving Jake Brentz to the 60-day IL, as he’ll be rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but finding two more spots will require alternative solutions.

Tigers: IF César Hernández and RHP Trevor Rosenthal

Hernández, 33 in May, is primarily a second baseman who is coming off a bizarre power surge and then a blackout. He had never hit more than 15 home runs in a season until he hit 21 in 2021, but then he had just a single homer last year. His final batting line with the Nats last year was .248/.311/.318, wRC+ of 79. Assuming Nick Maton is taking the third base job in Detroit, Hernández is competing for a bench spot along with players like Zack Short, Andre Lipcius and Andy Ibañez.

Rosenthal, 33 in May, has occasionally been one of the best relievers on the planet, including his 2020 campaign. He posted a 1.90 ERA over 23 appearances, striking out 41.8% of batters he faced. However, various injuries have prevented him from pitching at all in the past two seasons. He recently spoke about how he may not be ready for Opening Day but is happy with his rehab process with the Tigers. It’s possible he forgoes his opt out in order to continue his work with the training staff.

The club doesn’t have an obvious 60-day IL candidate and they might also want to add non-roster invitees like Chasen Shreve or Trey Wingenter, creating a bit of a roster squeeze.

Twins: RHP Aaron Sanchez

Sanchez, 30, had an excellent season back in 2016, posting an ERA of 3.00 over 30 starts with the Blue Jays. Unfortunately, injuries have diminished his workload and results in recent years. He had a 6.60 ERA in 15 appearances for the Nationals and Twins last year.

He twice accepted outright assignments with the Twins last year and then re-signed on a minor league deal in the winter. He doesn’t seem to have a path to a roster spot at the moment but seems to be comfortable with the organization. He’ll soon have a chance to return to the open market but the relationship is good enough for him to stick around.

White Sox: IF Hanser Alberto and OF Billy Hamilton

Alberto, 30, is a light-hitting utility option. He spent last year with the Dodgers, spending time at all four infield positions in addition to some corner outfield work. He hit .244/.258/.365 for a wRC+ of 73. He was signed to bolster Chicago’s uncertain second base position, but that was before they solidified it by adding Elvis Andrus.

Hamilton, 32, has long been one of the game’s best defenders in the outfield and speediest baserunners. However, hit bat has always lagged behind. He got into 37 games between the Marlins and Twins last year but hit .050/.136/.050. His career batting line is .239/.292/.326 for a wRC+ of 66. The club came into spring with a question mark in right field but it seems like prospect Oscar Colás is trending towards taking that job.

Matt Foster Diagnosed With Forearm Strain

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The White Sox informed reporters, including James Fegan of The Athletic, that right-hander Matt Foster has a forearm strain in his throwing arm. They didn’t provide an estimated timeline for him today but said they hope to have one by the end of camp.

Foster, 28, was selected by the club in the 20th round of the 2016 draft. He worked his way to the majors and was added to the club’s 40-man roster in November of 2019, to protect him from being selected in that year’s Rule 5 draft. He then went on to have an excellent debut in 2020, posting a 2.20 ERA over 28 2/3 innings. He struck out 28.4% of batters faced that year, walked 8.3% of them and got grounders at a 35.8% clip.

Unfortunately, his results haven’t been quite as good over the past two seasons, as he’s been frequently shuttled to Triple-A and back. In those two seasons, he’s tossed 84 big league innings with a 5.14 ERA, 22.3% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 30% ground ball rate. He’s also tossed 18 2/3 innings in the minors in that time with better results, including a 3.86 ERA, 39% strikeout rate and 3.9% walk rate.

At this point, it’s unclear what the next steps will be for Foster, but a strain in a pitcher’s throwing arm is always concerning. He will presumably undergo further tests in the coming days and will hopefully get some good news from those.

Yoan Moncada, Nolan Arenado Leave WBC Game Due To Injuries

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The United States advanced to the final of the World Baseball Classic after tonight’s 14-2 victory over Cuba, though the game saw prominent players from both teams make early exits.  Nolan Arenado was hit in the right hand by an Elian Leyva pitch in the bottom of the fifth inning and was removed from the game.  In the bottom of the sixth, Yoan Moncada tracked back from third base in pursuit of a Kyle Schwarber fly ball, but collided with left fielder Roel Santos (who made the catch).

Moncada is the more serious situation, as at the very least, the third baseman is day-to-day with a bruised rib, as the White Sox announced during the game.  Afterwards, Cuba manager Armando Johnson told reporters (including ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez) after the game that Moncada had suffered a concussion, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted that Moncada was cleared after being treated for a possible concussion.

As for Arenado, x-rays were negative on his hand, and the Cardinals third baseman appeared to be in relatively good spirits in the dugout following the HBP.  United States manager Mark DeRosa told ESPN’s Marly Rivera and other reporters postgame that Arenado “would have fought me on” staying in the game had the score not been so lopsided.

Injuries have been an ongoing storyline of the WBC, particularly Jose Altuve’s thumb fracture that will require surgery, or Edwin Diaz’s season-threatening right knee surgery.  Losing Moncada and Arenado to significant injuries would’ve only added to the debate over the added risks posed by players’ participation in this high-intensity games, and yet naturally, risk is inevitable in any kind of competitive environment.  Given the long list of injuries suffered by players in Spring Training (either in games or in workout drills) and the random nature of injuries in general, it is hard to say that players would’ve necessarily be safer in camp with their teams than playing in the WBC.

Given the uncertainty around Moncada, the White Sox will likely keep him sidelined for at least a few days to fully monitor his health.  It’s possible this might be all Moncada needs to recover, but with Opening Day looming, the Sox will surely at least consider an injured-list placement to begin the season if Moncada’s rib problem is still lingering, or if any concussion symptoms surface.

Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?

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The Guardians rode a late surge in 2022 to a runaway division title in the American League Central, trouncing the second-place White Sox and third-place Twins by 11 and 14 games, respectively. It was a testament both to the development of several key young players in Cleveland as well as some staggering injury woes both in Chicago and Minnesota. Further down the division ranks, the rebuilds in Detroit and Kansas City both hit roadblocks, with the Tigers and Royals losing 96 and 97 games, respectively.

There was plenty of offseason activity throughout the division, however, and we can expect to see several touted prospects make their debuts in 2023 as well. Will that change the outlook? Let’s take a quick look at each team heading into the season.

Cleveland Guardians (92-70 in 2022)

The Guardians hit the second-fewest home runs of any team in baseball last season but nonetheless ranked 15th in runs scored, offsetting their lack of power with far and away the lowest team strikeout rate in baseball (18.2%). The pitching staff posted a collective 3.47 ERA, ranking sixth in the Majors, and while they were only 12th in strikeout rate (23.2%), they also had the game’s fifth-best walk rate (7.3%). Cleveland also dominated in one other key area: health. Guardians players spent the fewest cumulative days on the injured list of any team in the Majors at just 709, per Spotrac. The second-lowest team, the Orioles, clocked in at 790. Cleveland had less than one-third of the IL days of MLB’s two worst teams in that regard: the Reds (2,638) and the Twins (2,363).

Over the winter, Cleveland signed Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, adding some thump to the lineup. Zunino, in particular is an all-or-nothing hitter at the plate, but Guardians catchers in 2022 were the least-productive in the American League, so he should be an upgrade over last year’s backstops. Top prospects like catcher Bo Naylor, outfielder George Valera and infielder Brayan Rocchio are among the many hitters on the cusp of the Majors and should all be key reinforcements as Cleveland defends its crown.

Chicago White Sox (81-81 in 2022)

The White Sox were tanked by key injuries in 2022, with each of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Lance Lynn, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer and Garrett Crochet spending at least a month on the shelf. The Sox ranked in the bottom third of the league in homers, the bottom half in runs scored and were also a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of rotation and bullpen ERA. Defensively, they were a mess, thanks in no small part to the outfield alignment. The Sox ranked 23rd in the Majors in Outs Above Average (-16), 27th in Defensive Runs Saved (-35) and dead last in Ultimate Zone Rating (-42.2).

The decision to let Jose Abreu walk in free agency was surely a blow to the clubhouse and lineup alike, but it’ll also allow Andrew Vaughn to slide from right field to his natural position, first base. Jimenez can spend significant time at DH, too, now that Andrew Benintendi has been signed to play left field. The Sox didn’t do much to address right field, where Gavin Sheets will try to fend off top prospect Oscar Colas, who should debut early in the season. They’ll hope that Mike Clevinger can replace the resurgent Johnny Cueto in the rotation, and Elvis Andrus is back to handle second base. All of baseball is pulling for closer Liam Hendriks as he battles cancer, and while his health takes priority above all else, there’s no getting around the fact that his absence hurts the relief corps as the Sox look for better results in 2023.

Minnesota Twins (78-84 in 2022)

The Twins were the opposite of the Guardians in terms of player health in 2022, and they’ll hope more than anything that their roster can remain on the field more in 2023. Even with all their health woes, the Twins still ranked in the top half of MLB in home runs and placed 16th in runs scored. Their rotation’s 4.11 ERA was 19th in MLB, while the bullpen’s ERA sat right at MLB’s midpoint.

Minnesota was the most active team in the division this offseason, improbably retaining Carlos Correa after an unprecedented free-agent saga saw deals with the Giants and Mets fall through. The Twins also traded star infielder Luis Arraez to land righty Pablo Lopez and a pair of prospects from the Marlins, giving them the deepest rotation they’ve had in some time — health permitting. Lopez, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, a returning Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober is a strong sextet around which to build the staff. Meanwhile, the Twins keyed in on defense, depth and defensive versatility with their other acquisitions. Catcher Christian Vazquez and outfielders Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor are all standouts with the glove (to say nothing of Gallo’s obvious power potential). Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano can play all over the infield (and, in Farmer’s place, even behind the plate in a pinch).

The bullpen was left as is, with the Twins believing deadline pickup Jorge Lopez, sophomore Jovani Moran (who excelled late in the season) and a returning Jorge Alcala can provide the necessary boost alongside breakout star Jhoan Duran. Oft-injured top prospect Royce Lewis should return this summer, and the Twins could also get late looks at infielders like Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee.

Detroit Tigers (66-96 in 2022)

The Tigers’ 2021-22 offseason was headlined by acquisitions of Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, but by the end of the regular season those headlines shifted to a front office shuffle. The Tigers’ poor results led ownership to oust GM Al Avila and hire Giants GM Scott Harris as the new president of baseball operations. The 2022 Tigers saw key injuries to the entire core of their promising young rotation, with Casey Mize having Tommy John surgery, Tarik Skubal requiring flexor surgery and Matt Manning missing substantial time due to shoulder troubles. Center fielder Riley Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson didn’t develop as hoped in their rookie seasons. Baez and Rodriguez, meanwhile, didn’t live up to their respective contracts.

In Harris’ first offseason on the job, he traded relievers Gregory Soto and Joe Jimenez to add some near-MLB talent, including outfielder Matt Vierling, infielder Nick Maton and catcher Donny Sands. Free agents Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen were signed to help solidify a rotation that’ll also get righty Spencer Turnbull back after he missed the 2022 season recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery. It was the type of modest offseason that’s generally expected for a newly hired baseball operations leader as they take time to get a feel for the organization before making more sweeping changes. Prospect-wise, pitcher Wilmer Flores and third baseman/outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy are among the names who could potentially make their debuts this season.

Kansas City Royals (65-97 in 2022)

The Royals had their own front office shakeup, as president of baseball ops Dayton Moore was dismissed after more than 15 years atop the front office. He was replaced by his own longtime top lieutenant J.J. Picollo. That decision came on the heels of a 2022 season in which the Royals, who’ve been focusing their rebuild on drafting and developing college pitchers, posted the fourth-worst rotation ERA in MLB (4.76). Right-hander Brady Singer had a breakout season, but none of Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar or Kris Bubic has found much success in the big leagues, and recent No. 4 overall pick Asa Lacy hasn’t progressed in the minors.

Given the manner in which the pitching stalled out, the Royals added veterans Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough while also re-signing Zack Greinke. That’ll raise the floor of the rotation while perhaps still allowing for some of Lynch, Kowar, Bubic, Jonathan Heasley or Carlos Hernandez to force their way into the picture. In the lineup, they’ll hope for further steps forward from a promising core of hitters including Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez. Youngsters like second baseman Michael Massey, outfielder Drew Waters and infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton should all get prominent looks in 2023 as well.

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Projection systems are inherently divisive, so take this for what it’s worth, but FanGraphs gives the Guardians a slight edge on the Twins in 2023, with the White Sox in third place, followed by the Royals and the Tigers. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, meanwhile, projects the Twins ever so slightly ahead of Cleveland, followed by Chicago in third place, Detroit in fourth and Kansas City in fifth.

Who do you think will win the AL Central?

Big Hype Prospects: Walker, Baty, Volpe, Colas, Jameson

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The hype is real this week on Big Hype Prospects. Numerous notable youngsters are among the top performers in the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues.

Five BHPs In The News

Jordan Walker, 20, OF, STL (AA)
536 PA, 19 HR, 22 SB, .306/.388/.510

Walker is fourth among qualified spring hitters with a 1.429 OPS across 28 plate appearances. He’s already popped three doubles and three home runs. This column has covered Walker’s scouting traits many times. His hot play is putting him in the picture for an Opening Day role, though such an assignment is unlikely for numerous reasons. The sad truth is club control is an important consideration for teams when choosing a debut date. While new rules offer some consolation, the terms* are rather difficult to achieve. Additionally, the Cardinals have a deep roster. Nolan Arenado covers Walker’s natural position of third base. He’s converted to outfield where Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, Lars Nootbaar, Alec Burleson, and Juan Yepez are also in the mix. In addition to competition and control incentives, Walker isn’t on the 40-man roster nor does he have any experience in Triple-A.

*Namely, two new rules. A player is awarded a full year of service if they finish top two in Rookie of the Year voting. A team can gain extra draft picks if a “top prospect” makes the Opening Day roster and later finishes top three in rookie voting or top five in MVP/Cy Young voting.

Brett Baty, 23, 3B, NYM (MLB)
(AA) 394 PA, 19 HR, 2 SB, .312/.406/.544

Another frequent guest of BHP, Baty is currently sixth-best among qualified hitters with a 1.208 OPS. He has one double and one home run. He spent most of 2022 in Double-A, though he had brief trials in Triple-A and the Majors. He didn’t look overmatched in his debut even though the end results weren’t impressive. An uncharacteristic .179 BABIP entirely explains his modest 71 wRC+. Baty is competing with Eduardo Escobar who could find himself in a utility role if Baty wins the third base job. There’s also room in the designated hitter competition where Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham are expected to see the bulk of the action. None of those veterans should be considered a lock to make the Mets roster.

Anthony Volpe, 21, SS, NYY (AAA)
(AAA) 427 PA, 24 HR, .280/.358/.519

Yet another player who has been covered ad nauseum by this column, Volpe is on the cusp of his big league debut. His 1.097 OPS looks strong in the early going. In addition to a home run and two doubles, he also has three stolen bases. Volpe’s path to the starting shortstop role should be viewed as an uphill battle if only because the Yankees have given themselves a number of difficult decisions to make this spring. Volpe is plagued by the same criteria that could give the Cardinals pause regarding Walker. Additionally, Volpe has identifiable flaws as a hitter – most notably, a fly ball-oriented swing. He could find himself with a low BABIP in the Majors, especially since many pitchers have become adept at attacking this hitting profile.

Oscar Colas, 24, OF, CWS (AAA)
(AA) 225 PA, 14 HR, 1 SB, .306/.364/.563

Colas surged through the White Sox system last season, making stops in High-, Double-, and Triple-A. His time in Double-A was his most meaningful performance. He only accrued 33 plate appearances in Triple-A. Colas has a bead on Chicago’s right field job where first baseman Gavin Sheets is seen as the main competition. Colas is batting .429/.455/.476 in 22 spring plate appearances. He is known for making impactful contact. Like many products of the White Sox farm system over the years, he has a detrimentally aggressive plate approach. His first test in the Majors will be laying off competitive pitches outside of the zone. Many a prospect with comparable tools and discipline to Colas failed to stick in the Majors.

Drey Jameson, 25, SP, ARI (MLB)
(AAA) 114 IP, 8.61 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 6.95 ERA

Jameson is competing with Ryne Nelson and others for the Diamondbacks fifth starter job. He mostly relies on two fastballs and a plus slider, though he also features a curve and changeup. In three spring outings, he’s tossed 6.2 innings with eight strikeouts, five hits, two walks, a home run, and three runs allowed. Although he’s proven a tad homer prone throughout his development, a high ground ball rate helps to salve the sting. He has the raw traits of a future workhorse. Within the next couple seasons, he could click in much the way Logan Webb clicked between his 2020 and 2021 campaigns. For those concerned about his Triple-A numbers, those are at least partly an artifact of circumstance. Reno’s starters combined for a 5.24 ERA which ranked fifth out of 10 clubs in the PCL.

Three More

Cole Ragans, TEX (25): Ragans averaged 92.1-mph with his heater last season so it raised a few eyebrows when he hit 99-mph the other day. With a number of Rangers starters banged up, there’s a decent chance Ragans will nab a start or two early in the season. I’m withholding enthusiasm until he maintains velocity in longer outings. At a minimum, the southpaw could really play up out of the bullpen.

Masyn Winn, STL (20): Though he has almost no chance of playing his way to an Opening Day assignment, Winn is making a favorable impression this spring. He has a 1.071 OPS in 17 plate appearances with a homer and two steals. Scouts want to see him adjust against competitive breaking balls but are otherwise enamored with the young shortstop. Defensively, he has an 80-grade arm but closer to 40-grade range and footwork. The arm ensures he’ll stick on the left side of the infield.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand, CIN (23): Acquired in the Tyler Mahle trade, Encarnacion-Strand has slugged at every stop along the ladder. He’s expected to reach Triple-A early this season if not right out of the gate. In 18 spring plate appearances, he has 11 hits including a double and three home runs. The profile reads like a more compactly built Franmil Reyes.

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