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Christian Yelich

The Brewers’ Infield Picture

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Those following the Brewers at a distance may not have paid much attention to their tempered approach to the offseason. It’s easy to look at their winter and see a modest collection of stopgaps to stanch the roster bleed of departing vets like Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas. Look a littler closer, however, and you’ll find President of Baseball Ops and GM David Stearns created a two-year window of flexible and affordable contracts to keep Craig Counsell’s squad in contention, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

With Christian Yelich and Josh Hader, the Brew Crew have some of the best high-end talent in the game, but they’ve done a nice job filling out the infield with one-and-one contracts for Brock Holt, Eric Sogard, Justin Smoak, and Jedd Gyorko. Along with trade acquisition Luis Urias, the Brewers found a grab bag of roster pieces to power their infield engine in a wide-open NL Central. Holdovers Keston Hiura and Orlando Arcia join the extensive group of infielders vying for playing time.

Though Arcia is still just 25-years-old and has notched some big performances for the Brewers in recent seasons, his grip on everyday at-bats is loosening. Urias’ injury has provided Arcia with a last-ditch opportunity to prove his mettle. He certainly brings attitude and flair to the diamond, but two seasons of a .228/.277/.333 line dims the outlook on Arcia’s offensive potential for sure. Still, of the newcomers in the clubhouse, only Urias really threatens Arcia’s everyday status at short.

Of all rostered Brewers not named Yelich, Hiura has the highest ceiling. Thus, the onus lies largely (if unfairly) on his shoulders to make up the offensive production left behind by Grandal and Moustakas (who put up a combined 7 oWAR last season per baseball-reference). He put up a robust .303/.368/.570 line in just 84 games as a 22-year-old after being called up last season (139 wRC+). His power numbers have fluctuated throughout his professional career, but the hit tool has consistently played, and the Brewers are counting on Hiura to do some damage from the middle of their order.

The final piece of the infield puzzle for Counsell is long-time face-of-the-franchise Ryan Braun. Braun could see a majority of his time at first base with Avisail Garcia and Ben Gamel lining up with Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the outfield. The exact formula for the rest of the lineup has no shortage of variables, but Counsell has proven himself an adept engineer. Importantly for Milwaukee, if any of the newly-acquired pieces fail to meld, they’ve maintained the flexibility, financially and structurally, to pivot.

Ryan Braun Discusses Future

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Franchise icon Ryan Braun is entering the final guaranteed season of the contract extension he signed with the Brewers nearly a decade ago. Now 36, the former MVP is nearing the end of a storied career. In fact, it’s not out of the question that 2020 could prove to be his final season, he acknowledged to reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) today at Fan Fest.

“I don’t take for granted this could be my last year playing baseball,” Braun told reporters. “It’s definitely a possibility,” he elaborated when asked if he would contemplate retirement after the 2020 season. “We’ll see how the year goes, see where I’m at physically. Obviously, my family’s always my top priority, so we’ll see how everything’s going then.”

Needless to say, that’s hardly a declaration that he’ll certainly hang up the spikes. He added that he doesn’t anticipate making a final decision until after this season, when he can reevaluate his health and family situation as well as the team’s outlook. Braun’s contract does come with a $15MM mutual option for 2021, but mutual options are rarely exercised. Typically, the price point is either high enough that the team would prefer to buy the player out or low enough that the player would rather explore free agency. In Braun’s case, it seems likely the Brewers would buy Braun out for $4MM rather than exercise their end.

That’s not to say, however, that Braun won’t be a key factor on Milwaukee’s 2020 outlook. He’s coming off a strong 2019 effort, in which he hit .285/.343/.505 (117 wRC+) in 508 plate appearances. The club anticipates him taking a similar number of plate appearances this season, he told reporters today. The longtime corner outfielder confirmed that some of that work figures to come at first base, where he’s played just 18 career games (all in 2018). Milwaukee’s corner outfield mix is crowded, with offseason signee Avisaíl García joining MVP candidate Christian Yelich and Ben Gamel. Yelich, notably, is at full strength for spring training after a knee injury ended his 2019 season in September, he told reporters today (including Haudricourt).

Today’s comments from Braun are perhaps unsurprising; that a 36-year-old player may at least entertain thoughts of retirement after the season won’t raise many eyebrows. Nevertheless, it’s notable to hear Braun verbalize the possibility. He is, as mentioned, still a productive hitter. In all fourteen of his MLB seasons, he’s been above-average at the dish by measure of wRC+. He’s certainly unlikely to return to the vaunted offensive force he was in his prime, but Braun still figures to be a valuable player in 2020. Should he again produce at the plate, he’d no doubt draw interest from teams next offseason, if he chooses to keep playing.

Quick Hits: Brewers, Garcia, Phillies, Bumgarner, Red Sox, Price

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The Brewers are “trying hard” to bring Avisail Garcia to Milwaukee, tweets The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Earlier, Jose F. Rivera of ESPN Deportes put the Brewers close to a deal with the Mato Sports Management client. Garcia would figure to be a good fit to share time in the outfield with the lefty-hitting Ben Gamel. Garcia has played mostly right field in his career, a few spot starts in left notwithstanding. If indeed he does sign with the Brewers, it could mean moving Christian Yelich back to left. Ryan Braun is also an option for the outfield, though as of right now he’s penciled in for the lion’s share of starts at first base.

  • Having nabbed a couple of former New York athletes in Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius, the Phillies are near their spending limit for 2019. Together, Wheeler and Gregorius add $37.6MM to Philly’s luxury tax ledger for 2019. Estimates put the Phillies right up against the $208MM tax threshold, putting some added emphasis to any further moves made this winter. Still, execs from around the league believe they are open to further spending, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The Phillies will continue to look for “opportunistic” signings. It’s unlikely, then, that the Phillies would be in on Madison Bumgarner, given the league-wide interest in the lefty and the hefty contract he is likely to secure.
  • Sneaking under the luxury tax remains a “realistic” goal for the Red Sox, per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings. The new regime led by Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom took a more egalitarian approach to the winter meetings than in recent years. Boston took the time to gauge the lay of the land rather than strike hard for a specific target. Moving all or most of the three-years, $96MM owed to David Price is still the quickest path to ducking the tax, but Bloom is resistant to making Price’s contract more palatable by attaching prospects. They are, however, willing to pay down Price’s contract to get it closer to $20MM per year rather than the current $32MM. Until Price does get moved, expect more of the same as the Red Sox will continue to work around the margins to tweak the roster.

Central Notes: White Sox, McCann, Yelich, Wong, Candelario

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White Sox catcher James McCann could represent an integral part of his team’s jump to contention, which might opt for a sort of veteran infusion to supplement a blossoming young core led by Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Tim Anderson, and Eloy Jimenez. As The Athletic’s James Fegan writes, McCann sees himself as one of the first veterans to steer the young club towards that next step. He compares his team to recent versions of the Indians and Royals, who rode young cores to World Series berths from 2014-2016 as McCann watched from Detroit. He’s enjoyed his best offensive season, riding a strong first half to an All-Star selection, though he prides himself in his game-calling and management of a pitching staff. His collaboration with breakout star Lucas Giolito, along with a strong showing at the plate, has earned him a spot in the Sox clubhouse for 2020 and beyond.

  • Brewers megastar Christian Yelich, who suffered a fractured kneecap after fouling a ball off his right knee, is showing signs of progress more than a week after the injury. Per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, Yelich could be walking with crutches in about a week, with the possibility of running as early as the end of October. That’s not to say that he’ll be ready in time for a potential playoff return, however. While that doesn’t make the absence of the Brewers’ franchise player any more bearable, it’s encouraging that he’s making progress in his recovery.
  • The Cardinals are going to exercise caution with injured second baseman Kolten Wong, who tweaked his hamstring on Thursday while running. An MRI on Friday revealed that he didn’t suffer anything worse that a mild-to-moderate hamstring strain, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. That’s encouraging, especially after a situation last year in which Wong may have made the same injury worse by continuing to run despite the strain. For fear of aggravating the injury, he won’t be able to play until he demonstrates that he can swing and field without complication, though Wong, who’s been one of the stars of the second half for the Cards, says he is feeling better so far.
  • Tigers third baseman Jeimer Candelario may be playing himself out of the Tigers’ future plans, writes Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. Thought to be the third baseman of the future when he was acquired from Chicago in 2017, Candelario has taken steps backward this season, with his wRC+ plummeting to just 67. The organization hasn’t completely given up hope yet, though the 25-year-old is running out of chances to rediscover his swing if he’s to stay on a Major League roster as a corner infielder. He hopes that playing winter ball after the season—something he wasn’t able to do last year because of a wrist injury—will help him get on the right track.

Christian Yelich Fractures Kneecap, Out For Season

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Sept. 12: Milwaukee general manager David Stearns confirmed that Yelich won’t need surgery but placed a timeline of eight to ten weeks on his recovery (Twitter links via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Stearns described the injury as a “small” fracture and added that it’s not expected to impact Yelich in the long run.

Sept. 11: The Brewers can breathe a small sigh of relief. Yelich won’t need surgery, and he’ll be out just six weeks, according to Jim Bowden of SiriusXM.

Sept. 10: The Brewers announced devastating news Tuesday: Superstar outfielder Christian Yelich suffered a fractured right kneecap in their win over the Marlins and will miss the rest of the season. He incurred the injury after fouling a ball off his knee in the first inning.

This will cut short a phenomenal season for Yelich, who may have been on his way to Most Valuable Player honors in the National League for the second straight year (and could still win the award). Yelich’s campaign will conclude with a .329/.429/.671 line, 44 home runs, 30 stolen bases and 7.7 fWAR/7.1 rWAR in 580 plate appearances. The 27-year-old currently leads all of baseball in OPS (1.100), paces the NL in wRC+ (172), and stood a legitimate chance to post the first 50-30 season in the history of the sport.

The fact that the Brewers are firmly in the NL postseason race makes the loss of Yelich all the more horrific. After its latest victory, Milwaukee sits 76-68, just 1 1/2 games back of the division-rival Cubs for the league’s second wild-card spot. Now, with Yelich joining fellow offensive linchpin Keston Hiura on the shelf, it’s especially difficult to imagine the Brewers rallying to clinch a playoff spot for the second consecutive year.

At this point, it’s safe to say one of the main concerns for the Brew Crew is whether this injury will affect Yelich going forward. President of baseball operations David Stearns said Tuesday (via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) that there’s not yet “a definitive time frame” for Yelich’s recovery, nor is it clear whether he’ll need surgery. The Brewers will reevaluate Yelich on Wednesday, per Stearns, who called the injury “a gut punch” but expressed hope the club will overcome what could realistically amount to a death blow for its 2019 hopes.

Checking In On Last Year’s Toughest Outs

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If you’re an offensive player in baseball, there is nothing more important than avoiding outs. Common sense indicates the more you get on base – whether with a hit, a walk or a hit by a pitch – the better your team’s chances are of scoring and ultimately winning. That’s why on-base percentage is more useful than batting average or slugging percentage, two other conventional stats that help define a hitter’s value.

Just six qualified hitters reached the .400-OBP mark in 2018.  The group included the best player in baseball, another potential Hall of Famer, each league’s MVP, an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship and a potential star in the making. Let’s take a look at how that six-man club is doing in 2019…

Mike Trout, Angels (2018 OBP: .460):

Here’s the “best player in baseball” mentioned above. The 27-year-old Trout has reached 45.5 percent of the time through 231 plate appearances, putting him right in line with last year’s league-best effort. He’s also on track for his fifth straight season with at least a .400 OBP. Trout was a .312 hitter in 2018 who walked 20.4 percent of the time. His average has noticeably dropped (to .283), but his walk rate is up a bit and opposing pitchers have helped Trout’s cause by already hitting him six times. He wore 10 pitches last year in 378 more PA.

Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .438):

Betts got on base a bit less than Trout last season, but the Boston superstar led the sport in fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. While Betts hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, he has still avoided outs at a phenomenal clip (.400 in 255 trips to the plate). The 26-year-old has walked 14-plus percent of the time for the second consecutive season, but a 55-point decline in batting average (.346 to .291) and a 54-point BABIP drop (.368 to .314) have hurt his OBP. Plus, Betts isn’t on pace to match the eight HBPs he totaled in 2018, having picked up only two so far.

Joey Votto, Reds (2018 OBP: .417):

Votto’s the “potential Hall of Famer” named in the opening. The hitting savant has managed a remarkable .424 OBP dating back to his 2007 debut, in part because he has drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2019. Now in his age-35 season, Votto’s walk rate is at a pedestrian-by-his-standards 11.6 percent – down nearly 5 points from his career mark –  while his strikeouts have soared. Putting the ball in play less helps explain why Votto, a lifetime .309 hitter, has only mustered a .242 average this season. Worse, Statcast credits Votto with a .229 expected average, indicating a rebound may not be on the way. Despite his newfound woes, Votto has still put up an above-average .340 OBP in 215 PA this year, but it’s nothing to get excited about in the venerable first baseman’s case.

Brandon Nimmo, Mets (2018 OBP: .404):

Nimmo’s far and away the least accomplished member of this list, but that doesn’t take away that the 26-year-old was a stupendous offensive player in 2018. As only a .264 hitter, though, his high OBP came thanks in part to a league-leading 22 HBPs over 433 PA. Nimmo has not been a magnet for pitches this year, however, having taken three in 130 trips to the plate. He’s also batting a mere .200 and has seen his BABIP fall from .351 to .288. Nimmo is collecting walks at a terrific clip (16.1 percent), but his .344 OBP is still a 60-point drop-off from last season.

Christian Yelich, Brewers (2018 OBP: .402):

We arrive at the other MVP on this list. What’s Yelich, 26, doing for an encore? Well, he ranks third in the majors in OBP (.425), in part because his walk rate has climbed from 10.4 percent to 15.1. Yelich has also logged a .314 average even though his BABIP has sunk 87 points since last year.

J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .402):

Martinez, described above as “an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship,” has been closer to very good than great this season. A .375 BABIP/.330 average helped drive Martinez’s OBP last season, but he’s at .315/.298 in those categories through 219 PA this season. Consequently, the 31-year-old has “only” reached base 37.9 percent of the time. But Martinez is striking out a lot less, which bodes well, and Statcast puts his expected average at .321. Another .400-OBP season certainly isn’t out of the question for Martinez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Injury Updates: Yelich, Cano, Tatis

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A few prominent National Leaguers departed their teams’ games with injuries on Sunday. Here’s the latest on that group:

  • Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich exited the club’s loss to the Mets with lower back discomfort, Sarah Langs of MLB.com writes. Fortunately for the slumping Brew Crew, manager Craig Counsell suggested that Yelich will steer clear of the injured list. The reigning NL MVP is enjoying another transcendent season thus far, having slashed a video game-like .353/.460/.804 with a major league-leading 14 home runs over 124 plate appearances.
  • On the other side of Sunday’s Milwaukee-New York matchup, the Mets lost second baseman Robinson Cano after he took an 88 mph Gio Gonzalez fastball off his left hand. An X-ray on Cano came back negative, but the Mets are “still a little concerned,” manager Mickey Callaway told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and other reporters. Cano will undergo an MRI on Monday. In the meantime, the Mets will hope this doesn’t prove to be another serious injury for Cano, whose OPS has climbed from .551 to .754 over the past two weeks. Cano suffered a fractured right hand on a hit by pitch when he was with the Mariners last year.
  • Padres rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. had to leave the team’s loss to the Nationals with a hamstring injury, but it seems the shortstop will avoid an IL stint. Tatis will miss “a few days” at most, sources tell the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee, who reports the 20-year-old could even play Monday. The Padres will know more then about the status of Tatis, who, just 27 games into his career, has already emerged as one of the up-and-coming franchise’s best players. The early NL Rookie of the Year candidate has slashed .300/.360/.550 with six homers and six steals in 111 PA.

Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts Win MVP Awards

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The Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced tonight that Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich was voted the Most Valuable Player of the National League. Meanwhile, fellow outfielder Mookie Betts took the prize in the American League.

Yelich nearly pulled off a unanimous win after helping lead the Brew Crew to a stirring NL Central title. Only one first-place vote went to another player, as Mets hurler Jacob deGrom was not-unjustly rewarded for an exceptional season that already netted him a Cy Young Award.

Clearly, though, Yelich stood above the rest of the position-player field. It surely helped his case that he led a resurgent Brewers club, but the 26-year-old turned in a stellar first year in Milwaukee quite apart from what his teammates did around him. In 651 plate appearances, he turned in a .326/.402/.598 batting line with 36 home runs and 22 steals.

That eye-popping offensive output, combined with solid glovework and excellent overall baserunning, left Yelich with a hefty tally of 7.6 WAR (by measure of both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference). Cubs infielder Javier Baez placed second, with Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado finishing in bronze-medal position.

As for Betts, his season was even more compelling, allowing him to stand out even against a field of excellent contenders in the American League. He finished the season with a ridiculous .346/.438/.640 slash while qualifying for the 30/30 club. Plus, he’s widely considered one of the best defenders and baserunners in the game.

It’s a credit to Betts that he was able to top yet another MVP-worthy performance from the incomparable Mike Trout, whose perennial excellence is not diminished by the fact that a rotating cast of others has occasionally matched or bettered him. Indians infielder Jose Ramirez turned in a second consecutive third-place finish.

Injury Notes: T. Walker, Brewers, S. Perez, DeShields

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Here’s the latest injury news from around the majors:

  • Diamondbacks right-hander Taijuan Walker left his start against the Dodgers on Saturday with forearm tightness, Arizona announced. Walker departed after throwing two innings, during which he experienced a drop in velocity, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. While the severity of Walker’s injury is not yet clear, forearm tightness often leads to more serious elbow troubles. The D-backs are left to hope this isn’t a major issue for Walker, who impressed with them last year – his first with the club – and has begun 2018 with 13 innings of 3.46 ERA pitching.
  • Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich is eligible to come off the disabled list Sunday, but the club won’t activate him then, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com tweets. Yelich, who suffered an oblique injury last week, isn’t yet 100 percent, McCalvy notes. Meanwhile, fellow corner outfielder Ryan Braun left Saturday’s game against the Mets with back tightness, Adam Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel was among those to report. Whether it’s problematic enough to lead to a DL stint isn’t yet known. Braun, of course, missed 58 games last year while dealing with various injuries.
  • Royals catcher Salvador Perez could make his 2018 debut during the team’s next homestand, which runs from April 24-29, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com writes. Perez, who suffered a Grade 2 MCL tear in his left knee on March 28, began a rehab assignment at the Double-A level on Saturday. The Perez-less Royals have gotten terrible offensive production early this year from behind-the-plate fill-ins Drew Butera and Cam Gallagher, who combined for a .175/.227/.250 line entering Saturday. Thanks in part to their struggles, Kansas City’s a woeful 3-10.
  • Rangers center fielder Delino DeShields could come back earlier than expected from the broken left hamate bone he suffered March 31, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News relays. DeShields was slated to miss four to six weeks at the time of the injury, but he’s aiming for an April 23 return – which would be three weeks. The Rangers’ reserve options, Drew Robinson and Carlos Tocci, haven’t exactly stepped up during DeShields’ absence. Robinson has hit a meek .167/.255/.262 in 47 plate appearances, while Tocci has collected only one hit in 10 trips to the plate.

Brewers Place Christian Yelich on 10-Day DL

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After letting him sit out a few games with a minor oblique injury, the Brewers have elected to place outfielder Christian Yelich on the 10-day DL. In a corresponding move, the team has recalled right-hander Taylor Williams from Triple-A Colorado Springs.

During Yelich’s absence, it seems likely that Domingo Santana will fill in for him in the outfield. Yelich was off to a hot start for the 2018 season; he’s hit .385/.407/.577 across 27 plate appearances for the Brew Crew with one long ball and five runs driven in.  The 26-year-old has played at least 155 games in consecutive seasons, a streak that will now officially come to an end with the news that he’ll miss at least the ten-day minimum.

Yelich, of course, was perhaps the Brewers’ biggest offseason addition. The club sent top prospects Lewis Brinson and Isan Diaz, along with two other minor-leaguers, to Miami in order to bring the young slugger to Milwaukee. He sports a career .291/.366/.433 batting line across his first 2,839 plate appearances, with 60 homers and a 121 wRC+.

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