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Three Teams Who’ve Yet To Win Their Division

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It is somewhat amazing that there are three National League teams – one each for the West, East, and Central – that have yet to win their division.

Make no mistake, the American League has its share of heartbreak. The Mariners have yet to return to the playoffs after their 116-win season in 2001. The Rangers are far away as ever from capturing their first World Series after the so-close-you-can-taste-it near-misses of 2010 and 2011. Fans of the Astros and Red Sox have suffered different brands of heartbreak after the legitimacy of their recent winners was called into question. 

But in the National League, the Rockies, Marlins, and Pirates have never won their respective divisions.

Granted, the Pirates were crowned champs of the National League East 9 times, including a three-peat for Jim Leyland’s clubs from 1990 to 1992 and a title-winner way back in 1979 – but since they moved to the NL Central in 1994: goose eggs. That’s a 26-year-run without a divisional crown, a mark of futility eclipsed only by the Rockies and Marlins. Colorado and Florida both entered the league in 1993, and neither has landed the top spot in their division in the 27 seasons since. 

Back in the junior circuit, every team in the AL East has won since 2010 (Tampa Bay). In the Central, the White Sox have the longest drought (11 seasons), going back to their first-place finish in 2008. Everyone in the AL West has taken their turn at the top since 2012 – except the Mariners, of course, who won the division in 2001 and 1997.

But each division in the National League has its slow-and-steady competitor, so let’s take a quick look at each.

Colorado Rockies

Of these three clubs, the Rockies’ reputation took the fewest hits over the last 27 years. The Blake Street Bombers hold a particular place in baseball lore, and there’s a general sense of “unfortunate circumstances” around the Rox because of the thin air in Colorado. The impossibility of housing a winning pitching staff at Coors Field is baseball cliche now, but that doesn’t make the challenge any less potent.

Here’s what I wrote of Colorado in their Offseason In Review post back in March: “Colorado pitching, after all, has proven one of the more frustrating team-building challenges in the major leagues. The Sisyphean task of constructing even a league-average pitching staff at Coors Field persists year-after-year. Over the course of their 27-season history, the Rockies posted a league-average or better team ERA just three times (2010, 2009, 2007). In 2010, Jim Tracy’s 83-win squad finished with an exactly-league-average ERA, but those other two seasons — 2009, 2007 — happen to be two of the only three seasons in which the Rockies won 90 games in their history.”

Adding to the task at hand for Colorado, there’s at least a possibility that ownership believes this team is better than it is. They lost 91 games last year and have exhibited zero financial flexibility. If they end up losing close to 90 games again (or the equivalent in whatever kind of season is played in 2020), then the Rockies are still probably in the decline phase, not yet having rebooted into a full-blown rebuild. Rebuilds, of course, are time-intensive when done right, and very time-intensive when rushed.

The Rockies have made the postseason a handful of times, and they won the pennant in 2007, but they’re caught in no-man’s-land now. The Dodgers have won the division 7 years running, and Walker Buehler, Cody Bellinger, and company have plenty left in the tank. The Padres’ stable of young arms makes them one of the more intriguing up-and-coming teams in the league, and the Diamondbacks continue to impress with their ability to retool on the fly. After coming within a play-in game of taking the crown from the Dodgers in 2018, the Rockies might have missed their best shot.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins entered the league at a tough time to be a member of the NL East. The Atlanta Braves held a hammerlock on the division, taking the crown every season from 1995 until 2005 (they were in the NL West before that). To their credit, the Marlins made themselves into a competitive squad pretty quick, making the playoffs as a wild card in 1997, just their fifth season of existence. The organization made its name the year after, however, in selling off the pieces of their World Series winner and cratering into a 108-loss squad. After that horrid 1998 season, it took the Marlins five more years to get back to the playoffs again, at which point it was second-verse-same-as-the-first. They didn’t sink quite so fast or quite so far the second time around, but they also haven’t recovered (no playoff appearances since 2003).

That said, the Marlins have begun to see the light from their decade-plus in limbo. MLBTR’s own Mark Polishuk wrapped up the Marlins offseason back in March with this: “It’s a sign of progress, however, that the scorched-earth phase of the rebuild seems to be over.  Villar, Kintzler, or other veterans on short-term deals could well end up being moved at the trade deadline, but it doesn’t seem like younger talent is on the move…Miami seems ready to find out if the young players it already has in the fold could end up being part of that next Marlins winner, and it will be intriguing to see which of the pitchers and position players take that next step in 2020.”

The current era of Marlins baseball is best known for shepherding the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna out of town prior to the 2018 season. But they’re also a unique entrant on this mini-list because they won not just one, but two World Series titles over this span. Derek Jeter now helms the organization, and though they don’t have that face-of-the-franchise type player soaking up their spotlight, they’ve become increasingly competitive. Heading into whichever season of baseball comes next, they’ll have a decent collection of starting pitchers to keep them in games – with a smaller host of position player prospects nearing the majors. Whether they have that franchise-changing talent in the upper ranks is unclear. Business might not yet be booming in Miami, but it’s better. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

As stated above, it’s a bit unfair for the Pirates to be lumped in with the expansion clubs from the nineties, as they do have a history of success in the major leagues. They have 9 division crowns, 7 World Series appearances, and 5 World Series banners. But that’s all ancient history.

Since moving to the NL Central in 1994, the Pirates are a firm contender for the most moribund franchise in the sport. The departure of Barry Bonds after the 1992 season put an unfortunate face on their decline – much in the way that Babe Ruth’s departure doomed Boston baseball for so long – but there has been ample time to rebound from those back-to-back game 7 losses to Atlanta in 1991 and 1992.

In the time since the Pirates’ primary distinction is claiming the title for the longest streak of losing seasons in North American sports history. Forget about division titles. The Pirates weren’t able to finish over .500 one time from 1993 to 2012.

Pittsburgh fans finally had something to cheer for in 2013 when Clint Hurdle’s club broke through with 94 wins and a wild card berth. They even won that first playoff game against the division rival Cincinnati Reds and pushed another rival – the Cardinals – to five games in the NLDS. The club followed its star outfield of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco to two more wild card berths in the following two seasons. Unfortunately, they were unable to get more than one playoff game in either of those years.

After finishing over .500 again in 2018, last season brought on a complete reset. Most of the organizations’ management turned over, and the remaining faces of those competitive clubs – Hurdle, Marte – were also sent packing. The organization is now in the hands of GM Ben Cherington, but they’re facing a complete philosophical overhaul. While they have talent, they’re not an easy club to put a timeline on returning to contention. Not until they put together a pitching staff with a more effective (and less pugilistic) philosophy. The division isn’t dominated by one team like the current AL West, but the Cardinals build a winner year after year, and the Cubs and Brewers aren’t far off in terms of their recent consistency.

Looking ahead, a shortened season in 2020 could open the window for a bizarre sort of division champ. All hope is not lost. On the whole, however, I don’t think there are a lot of pundits who would pick any of the Rockies, Marlins, or Pirates to breakthrough next season. Still, it’s bound to happen one day, right? All three teams will work to end their respective droughts, and in the meantime, thank goodness for the wild card.

(Poll link for app users.)

(Poll link for app users.)

 

NL Central Notes: Yelich, Burdi, Moore

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Brewers star Christian Yelich is drawing plaudits for his charitable efforts during the coronavirus pause, as Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes. He’s playing an active role in both Milwaukee and his native California, with the latter effort an extension of prior work in his home state. “We’re in a fortunate position,” Yelich says of he and his partners in the California Strong foundation (including teammate Ryan Braun). “Not everybody has the ability to have the same reach. We understand that. In tough times, people understand if they can help, they should and they will.”

More from the NL Central:

  • While he’s a total health wild card at this point, Pirates reliever Nick Burdi had shown some signs of a rebound in camp, as Mike Persak of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. His eye-popping fastball has returned after his latest rehab effort — occasioned by surgery that followed a hard-to-watch mid-game injury. Burdi may benefit from an extended layoff, though it seems he was largely back to full strength. The Pirates will have plenty of flexibility in utilizing him once the season gets underway. Burdi still has options remaining and it’s likely that we’ll see temporarily expanded rosters regardless, so he can be handled with care. If the season ends up being wiped out, the 27-year-old will get a full season of service and quality for arbitration, though he’d also have limited earning capacity given his thin MLB track record (just ten innings).
  • The work stoppage has presented an unusual situation for everyone, but it’s actually a continuation for one pitcher. Andrew Moore had thrown remotely after signing a minors deal with the Reds, as Steve Mims of the Register Guard writes. The plan was for the 25-year-old to show up later in spring before heading to one of the top Cincinnati affiliates. Moore is instead continuing to send in his video and other data to the club. You won’t be surprised to learn that he has prior experience with Reds pitching coordinator Kyle Boddy, who has links with many of the hurlers that the organization has inked this winter. Moore is a former second-round pick of the Mariners. He has thrown 63 2/3 total innings of 5.51 ERA ball in the majors with the Seattle club, but was left searching for a career reset after a brutal 2019 showing in which he bounced between multiple organizations and compiled an 8.02 ERA in 101 upper-minors frames.

Brewers Extend Christian Yelich

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The Brewers have locked up the face of their franchise for the better part of the decade, announcing a nine-year contract with outfielder and 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich that runs through the 2028 season and includes a mutual option for the 2029 season. Yelich, a client of Paragon Sports International’s Joe Longo, will reportedly be promised seven years and $188.5MM on top of what he was already owed through the 2021 season.

Christian Yelich | Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The 28-year-old Yelich was already under club control for $12.5MM in 2020 and $14MM in 2021 — plus a $15MM club option ($1.25MM buyout) for the 2022 season. Those salaries came under the terms of Yelich’s previous seven-year, $49.57MM deal, though; the newly proposed arrangement would obviously catapult him into the game’s elite in terms of annual rate of compensation.

Under the terms of the new contract, those 2020-21 salaries will remain in place, while Yelich will reportedly be guaranteed $26MM annually (with $4MM in deferrals) from 2022-28. The option is said to be valued at $20MM with a $6.5MM buyout. He also receives a full no-trade clause. The contract doesn’t have any opt-outs. In all, he’ll be paid a hefty $215MM over the next nine seasons thanks to today’s extension.

Of course, Yelich has more than proven worthy of that level of investment since being traded over from Miami in a lopsided deal that sent Lewis Brinson, Isan Diaz, Jordan Yamamoto and Monte Harrison to the Marlins. Yelich had cemented himself as a well above-average player in Miami, but the former No. 23 overall pick and top prospect erupted with an MVP season in 2018 and an MVP runner-up in 2019. In two years with the Brewers, Yelich has won a pair of batting titles, posting a combined .327/.415/.631 slash with 80 home runs, 63 doubles, 10 triples and 52 steals (in 58 tries). The 2019 season saw Yelich lead the league not only in batting average but also in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

That outstanding 2019 campaign ended with an injury — specifically a fractured kneecap suffered when Yelich fouled a pitch into his shin. That might’ve cost him a second consecutive MVP Award — he and eventual winner Cody Bellinger were neck-and-neck at the time of the fracture — but the Brewers clearly don’t have much in the way of concern on potential lingering complications.

In looking for recent comparables, there are some definite parallels with Mike Trout, who also signed what amounts to a career-spanning contract when he was already signed for another two seasons. Yelich’s deal falls well shy of the 10 years and $360MM in new money secured by Trout a year ago, although that’s not really a surprise. Great as Yelich has become, Trout had a superior track record (as he does to everyone else in the game). He was also entering his age-27 season when he put pen to paper, and he didn’t have an option on the contract that his new arrangement was overwriting. Had Yelich played out the remainder of his deal, he’d have needed to wait three years to reach market in advance of his age-31 campaign.

Nolan Arenado, too, bears a quick mention. Like Yelich, he’s an elite talent who inked a mammoth extension in advance of his age-28 campaign, tacking seven years and $234MM onto his previous one-year, $26MM deal. Arenado, however, was only a season away from reaching the open market, so it’s not surprising that his annual value handily tops that of Yelich.

From the Brewers’ vantage point, the Yelich extension should buy some good will with a fan base that grew frustrated by the departures of Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas. Milwaukee spent at a generally conservative rate this winter, eschewing lengthy free-agent deals and high annual salaries alike; the Brewers didn’t give out a free-agent deal longer than Josh Lindblom’s three-year pact and didn’t promise a larger annual salary than the $10MM rate on Avisail Garcia’s two-year, $20MM deal.

That aversion to long-term spending surely helped to pave the way for the impending Yelich mega-deal. It’s probably not a coincidence that the Brewers are making a commitment of this magnitude right as the previous franchise-record contract — Ryan Braun’s $105MM extension — comes off the books. In fact, prior to the Yelich news, the Brewers only had $26.8MM in guarantees on the books in 2022, which will be the first newly guaranteed season on Yelich’s contact. Milwaukee didn’t have a single guaranteed salary on the books for the 2023 season prior to this deal, either. The contract should be manageable in terms of their long-term budget outlook, even if it’s a level of spending which we’ve never seen the Brewers commit to in the past. In that regard, though, it’s clear that the organization views him as a special commodity:

“Christian is everything you could want as the face of a franchise – from his incredible performance on the field, to his leadership as a teammate, to his dedication to the community,” owner Mark Attanasio said in a press release announcing the extension. “This is an exciting day for everyone connected to the organization as we continue our commitment to be a highly competitive franchise and a place that players want to call home.”

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal broke the news that the two sides were closing in on a franchise-record deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman tweeted various aspects of the contract’s structure. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported the yearly breakdown. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the no-trade clause and lack of opt-outs. MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reported on the deferrals in the pact.

MLBTR Poll: The Christian Yelich Extension

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By now you’ve surely seen the news: the Brewers are closing in on a new deal with superstar Christian Yelich. We’ll presume it’s completed for purposes of this post.

This contract arises even as the Brewers reach the final guaranteed year of their deal with long-time star Ryan Braun. Yelich had already supplanted him as the face of the franchis. Now, the younger outfielder will step into the top salary slot for the team.

Things can always change — lest we forget, the Brewers have at various points dangled Braun in trade talks in recent years — but Yelich seems destined to play in those sweet new Milwaukee unis for much of the rest of his career.

How to understand this deal? The 28-year-old Yelich was already under team control for three remaining seasons under the prior extension he inked as a member of the Marlins, so there wasn’t a huge rush. But the Brewers obviously felt now was the time to act if they were going to keep him around at a palatable price tag.

With seven years and (approximately) $187.25MM in new money, this deal provides Yelich with an eye-popping salary by any reasonable standard. But it’s a clear discount as compared to the values we saw in the free-agent market this winter. Consider that Anthony Rendon just sold the same portion of his career (age 30-36 seasons) for $245MM.

Great as Rendon is, he hasn’t matched Yelich in productivity. But the Brewers earned their discount by promising the money in advance — thus taking on quite a bit more risk. The most direct comparable, perhaps, is the early 2018 deal reached between the Astros and Jose Altuve when he was still two years away from the open market. Altuve only received five additional guaranteed years but got a heftier annual salary in his agreement (five years, $151MM).

It isn’t hard to understand the math for the team. On the player side, it’s hard to resist the temptation of a potential future bonanza. But Yelich was a long ways from the open market and quite a lot can change in the interim, as his freak late-2019 knee injury shows. There’s also some off-field value for both sides in striking this sort of bargain in advance. Yelich gets the comfort and assurance of knowing where he’ll play. No doubt he’ll also find it easy to strike whatever marketing deals he might like. And the club gets to promote the player as one of the franchise’s all-time greats while plotting its long-term roster moves around his presence.

So … win-win? Or is there a different way we ought to view this pact? (Poll link for app users.)

The Brewers’ Infield Picture

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Those following the Brewers at a distance may not have paid much attention to their tempered approach to the offseason. It’s easy to look at their winter and see a modest collection of stopgaps to stanch the roster bleed of departing vets like Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas. Look a littler closer, however, and you’ll find President of Baseball Ops and GM David Stearns created a two-year window of flexible and affordable contracts to keep Craig Counsell’s squad in contention, writes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

With Christian Yelich and Josh Hader, the Brew Crew have some of the best high-end talent in the game, but they’ve done a nice job filling out the infield with one-and-one contracts for Brock Holt, Eric Sogard, Justin Smoak, and Jedd Gyorko. Along with trade acquisition Luis Urias, the Brewers found a grab bag of roster pieces to power their infield engine in a wide-open NL Central. Holdovers Keston Hiura and Orlando Arcia join the extensive group of infielders vying for playing time.

Though Arcia is still just 25-years-old and has notched some big performances for the Brewers in recent seasons, his grip on everyday at-bats is loosening. Urias’ injury has provided Arcia with a last-ditch opportunity to prove his mettle. He certainly brings attitude and flair to the diamond, but two seasons of a .228/.277/.333 line dims the outlook on Arcia’s offensive potential for sure. Still, of the newcomers in the clubhouse, only Urias really threatens Arcia’s everyday status at short.

Of all rostered Brewers not named Yelich, Hiura has the highest ceiling. Thus, the onus lies largely (if unfairly) on his shoulders to make up the offensive production left behind by Grandal and Moustakas (who put up a combined 7 oWAR last season per baseball-reference). He put up a robust .303/.368/.570 line in just 84 games as a 22-year-old after being called up last season (139 wRC+). His power numbers have fluctuated throughout his professional career, but the hit tool has consistently played, and the Brewers are counting on Hiura to do some damage from the middle of their order.

The final piece of the infield puzzle for Counsell is long-time face-of-the-franchise Ryan Braun. Braun could see a majority of his time at first base with Avisail Garcia and Ben Gamel lining up with Yelich and Lorenzo Cain in the outfield. The exact formula for the rest of the lineup has no shortage of variables, but Counsell has proven himself an adept engineer. Importantly for Milwaukee, if any of the newly-acquired pieces fail to meld, they’ve maintained the flexibility, financially and structurally, to pivot.

Ryan Braun Discusses Future

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Franchise icon Ryan Braun is entering the final guaranteed season of the contract extension he signed with the Brewers nearly a decade ago. Now 36, the former MVP is nearing the end of a storied career. In fact, it’s not out of the question that 2020 could prove to be his final season, he acknowledged to reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) today at Fan Fest.

“I don’t take for granted this could be my last year playing baseball,” Braun told reporters. “It’s definitely a possibility,” he elaborated when asked if he would contemplate retirement after the 2020 season. “We’ll see how the year goes, see where I’m at physically. Obviously, my family’s always my top priority, so we’ll see how everything’s going then.”

Needless to say, that’s hardly a declaration that he’ll certainly hang up the spikes. He added that he doesn’t anticipate making a final decision until after this season, when he can reevaluate his health and family situation as well as the team’s outlook. Braun’s contract does come with a $15MM mutual option for 2021, but mutual options are rarely exercised. Typically, the price point is either high enough that the team would prefer to buy the player out or low enough that the player would rather explore free agency. In Braun’s case, it seems likely the Brewers would buy Braun out for $4MM rather than exercise their end.

That’s not to say, however, that Braun won’t be a key factor on Milwaukee’s 2020 outlook. He’s coming off a strong 2019 effort, in which he hit .285/.343/.505 (117 wRC+) in 508 plate appearances. The club anticipates him taking a similar number of plate appearances this season, he told reporters today. The longtime corner outfielder confirmed that some of that work figures to come at first base, where he’s played just 18 career games (all in 2018). Milwaukee’s corner outfield mix is crowded, with offseason signee Avisaíl García joining MVP candidate Christian Yelich and Ben Gamel. Yelich, notably, is at full strength for spring training after a knee injury ended his 2019 season in September, he told reporters today (including Haudricourt).

Today’s comments from Braun are perhaps unsurprising; that a 36-year-old player may at least entertain thoughts of retirement after the season won’t raise many eyebrows. Nevertheless, it’s notable to hear Braun verbalize the possibility. He is, as mentioned, still a productive hitter. In all fourteen of his MLB seasons, he’s been above-average at the dish by measure of wRC+. He’s certainly unlikely to return to the vaunted offensive force he was in his prime, but Braun still figures to be a valuable player in 2020. Should he again produce at the plate, he’d no doubt draw interest from teams next offseason, if he chooses to keep playing.

Quick Hits: Brewers, Garcia, Phillies, Bumgarner, Red Sox, Price

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The Brewers are “trying hard” to bring Avisail Garcia to Milwaukee, tweets The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Earlier, Jose F. Rivera of ESPN Deportes put the Brewers close to a deal with the Mato Sports Management client. Garcia would figure to be a good fit to share time in the outfield with the lefty-hitting Ben Gamel. Garcia has played mostly right field in his career, a few spot starts in left notwithstanding. If indeed he does sign with the Brewers, it could mean moving Christian Yelich back to left. Ryan Braun is also an option for the outfield, though as of right now he’s penciled in for the lion’s share of starts at first base.

  • Having nabbed a couple of former New York athletes in Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius, the Phillies are near their spending limit for 2019. Together, Wheeler and Gregorius add $37.6MM to Philly’s luxury tax ledger for 2019. Estimates put the Phillies right up against the $208MM tax threshold, putting some added emphasis to any further moves made this winter. Still, execs from around the league believe they are open to further spending, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. The Phillies will continue to look for “opportunistic” signings. It’s unlikely, then, that the Phillies would be in on Madison Bumgarner, given the league-wide interest in the lefty and the hefty contract he is likely to secure.
  • Sneaking under the luxury tax remains a “realistic” goal for the Red Sox, per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings. The new regime led by Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom took a more egalitarian approach to the winter meetings than in recent years. Boston took the time to gauge the lay of the land rather than strike hard for a specific target. Moving all or most of the three-years, $96MM owed to David Price is still the quickest path to ducking the tax, but Bloom is resistant to making Price’s contract more palatable by attaching prospects. They are, however, willing to pay down Price’s contract to get it closer to $20MM per year rather than the current $32MM. Until Price does get moved, expect more of the same as the Red Sox will continue to work around the margins to tweak the roster.

Central Notes: White Sox, McCann, Yelich, Wong, Candelario

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White Sox catcher James McCann could represent an integral part of his team’s jump to contention, which might opt for a sort of veteran infusion to supplement a blossoming young core led by Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Tim Anderson, and Eloy Jimenez. As The Athletic’s James Fegan writes, McCann sees himself as one of the first veterans to steer the young club towards that next step. He compares his team to recent versions of the Indians and Royals, who rode young cores to World Series berths from 2014-2016 as McCann watched from Detroit. He’s enjoyed his best offensive season, riding a strong first half to an All-Star selection, though he prides himself in his game-calling and management of a pitching staff. His collaboration with breakout star Lucas Giolito, along with a strong showing at the plate, has earned him a spot in the Sox clubhouse for 2020 and beyond.

  • Brewers megastar Christian Yelich, who suffered a fractured kneecap after fouling a ball off his right knee, is showing signs of progress more than a week after the injury. Per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, Yelich could be walking with crutches in about a week, with the possibility of running as early as the end of October. That’s not to say that he’ll be ready in time for a potential playoff return, however. While that doesn’t make the absence of the Brewers’ franchise player any more bearable, it’s encouraging that he’s making progress in his recovery.
  • The Cardinals are going to exercise caution with injured second baseman Kolten Wong, who tweaked his hamstring on Thursday while running. An MRI on Friday revealed that he didn’t suffer anything worse that a mild-to-moderate hamstring strain, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. That’s encouraging, especially after a situation last year in which Wong may have made the same injury worse by continuing to run despite the strain. For fear of aggravating the injury, he won’t be able to play until he demonstrates that he can swing and field without complication, though Wong, who’s been one of the stars of the second half for the Cards, says he is feeling better so far.
  • Tigers third baseman Jeimer Candelario may be playing himself out of the Tigers’ future plans, writes Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. Thought to be the third baseman of the future when he was acquired from Chicago in 2017, Candelario has taken steps backward this season, with his wRC+ plummeting to just 67. The organization hasn’t completely given up hope yet, though the 25-year-old is running out of chances to rediscover his swing if he’s to stay on a Major League roster as a corner infielder. He hopes that playing winter ball after the season—something he wasn’t able to do last year because of a wrist injury—will help him get on the right track.

Christian Yelich Fractures Kneecap, Out For Season

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Sept. 12: Milwaukee general manager David Stearns confirmed that Yelich won’t need surgery but placed a timeline of eight to ten weeks on his recovery (Twitter links via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Stearns described the injury as a “small” fracture and added that it’s not expected to impact Yelich in the long run.

Sept. 11: The Brewers can breathe a small sigh of relief. Yelich won’t need surgery, and he’ll be out just six weeks, according to Jim Bowden of SiriusXM.

Sept. 10: The Brewers announced devastating news Tuesday: Superstar outfielder Christian Yelich suffered a fractured right kneecap in their win over the Marlins and will miss the rest of the season. He incurred the injury after fouling a ball off his knee in the first inning.

This will cut short a phenomenal season for Yelich, who may have been on his way to Most Valuable Player honors in the National League for the second straight year (and could still win the award). Yelich’s campaign will conclude with a .329/.429/.671 line, 44 home runs, 30 stolen bases and 7.7 fWAR/7.1 rWAR in 580 plate appearances. The 27-year-old currently leads all of baseball in OPS (1.100), paces the NL in wRC+ (172), and stood a legitimate chance to post the first 50-30 season in the history of the sport.

The fact that the Brewers are firmly in the NL postseason race makes the loss of Yelich all the more horrific. After its latest victory, Milwaukee sits 76-68, just 1 1/2 games back of the division-rival Cubs for the league’s second wild-card spot. Now, with Yelich joining fellow offensive linchpin Keston Hiura on the shelf, it’s especially difficult to imagine the Brewers rallying to clinch a playoff spot for the second consecutive year.

At this point, it’s safe to say one of the main concerns for the Brew Crew is whether this injury will affect Yelich going forward. President of baseball operations David Stearns said Tuesday (via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) that there’s not yet “a definitive time frame” for Yelich’s recovery, nor is it clear whether he’ll need surgery. The Brewers will reevaluate Yelich on Wednesday, per Stearns, who called the injury “a gut punch” but expressed hope the club will overcome what could realistically amount to a death blow for its 2019 hopes.

Checking In On Last Year’s Toughest Outs

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If you’re an offensive player in baseball, there is nothing more important than avoiding outs. Common sense indicates the more you get on base – whether with a hit, a walk or a hit by a pitch – the better your team’s chances are of scoring and ultimately winning. That’s why on-base percentage is more useful than batting average or slugging percentage, two other conventional stats that help define a hitter’s value.

Just six qualified hitters reached the .400-OBP mark in 2018.  The group included the best player in baseball, another potential Hall of Famer, each league’s MVP, an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship and a potential star in the making. Let’s take a look at how that six-man club is doing in 2019…

Mike Trout, Angels (2018 OBP: .460):

Here’s the “best player in baseball” mentioned above. The 27-year-old Trout has reached 45.5 percent of the time through 231 plate appearances, putting him right in line with last year’s league-best effort. He’s also on track for his fifth straight season with at least a .400 OBP. Trout was a .312 hitter in 2018 who walked 20.4 percent of the time. His average has noticeably dropped (to .283), but his walk rate is up a bit and opposing pitchers have helped Trout’s cause by already hitting him six times. He wore 10 pitches last year in 378 more PA.

Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .438):

Betts got on base a bit less than Trout last season, but the Boston superstar led the sport in fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. While Betts hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, he has still avoided outs at a phenomenal clip (.400 in 255 trips to the plate). The 26-year-old has walked 14-plus percent of the time for the second consecutive season, but a 55-point decline in batting average (.346 to .291) and a 54-point BABIP drop (.368 to .314) have hurt his OBP. Plus, Betts isn’t on pace to match the eight HBPs he totaled in 2018, having picked up only two so far.

Joey Votto, Reds (2018 OBP: .417):

Votto’s the “potential Hall of Famer” named in the opening. The hitting savant has managed a remarkable .424 OBP dating back to his 2007 debut, in part because he has drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2019. Now in his age-35 season, Votto’s walk rate is at a pedestrian-by-his-standards 11.6 percent – down nearly 5 points from his career mark –  while his strikeouts have soared. Putting the ball in play less helps explain why Votto, a lifetime .309 hitter, has only mustered a .242 average this season. Worse, Statcast credits Votto with a .229 expected average, indicating a rebound may not be on the way. Despite his newfound woes, Votto has still put up an above-average .340 OBP in 215 PA this year, but it’s nothing to get excited about in the venerable first baseman’s case.

Brandon Nimmo, Mets (2018 OBP: .404):

Nimmo’s far and away the least accomplished member of this list, but that doesn’t take away that the 26-year-old was a stupendous offensive player in 2018. As only a .264 hitter, though, his high OBP came thanks in part to a league-leading 22 HBPs over 433 PA. Nimmo has not been a magnet for pitches this year, however, having taken three in 130 trips to the plate. He’s also batting a mere .200 and has seen his BABIP fall from .351 to .288. Nimmo is collecting walks at a terrific clip (16.1 percent), but his .344 OBP is still a 60-point drop-off from last season.

Christian Yelich, Brewers (2018 OBP: .402):

We arrive at the other MVP on this list. What’s Yelich, 26, doing for an encore? Well, he ranks third in the majors in OBP (.425), in part because his walk rate has climbed from 10.4 percent to 15.1. Yelich has also logged a .314 average even though his BABIP has sunk 87 points since last year.

J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .402):

Martinez, described above as “an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship,” has been closer to very good than great this season. A .375 BABIP/.330 average helped drive Martinez’s OBP last season, but he’s at .315/.298 in those categories through 219 PA this season. Consequently, the 31-year-old has “only” reached base 37.9 percent of the time. But Martinez is striking out a lot less, which bodes well, and Statcast puts his expected average at .321. Another .400-OBP season certainly isn’t out of the question for Martinez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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