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Christian Yelich

Checking In On Last Year’s Toughest Outs

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If you’re an offensive player in baseball, there is nothing more important than avoiding outs. Common sense indicates the more you get on base – whether with a hit, a walk or a hit by a pitch – the better your team’s chances are of scoring and ultimately winning. That’s why on-base percentage is more useful than batting average or slugging percentage, two other conventional stats that help define a hitter’s value.

Just six qualified hitters reached the .400-OBP mark in 2018.  The group included the best player in baseball, another potential Hall of Famer, each league’s MVP, an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship and a potential star in the making. Let’s take a look at how that six-man club is doing in 2019…

Mike Trout, Angels (2018 OBP: .460):

Here’s the “best player in baseball” mentioned above. The 27-year-old Trout has reached 45.5 percent of the time through 231 plate appearances, putting him right in line with last year’s league-best effort. He’s also on track for his fifth straight season with at least a .400 OBP. Trout was a .312 hitter in 2018 who walked 20.4 percent of the time. His average has noticeably dropped (to .283), but his walk rate is up a bit and opposing pitchers have helped Trout’s cause by already hitting him six times. He wore 10 pitches last year in 378 more PA.

Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .438):

Betts got on base a bit less than Trout last season, but the Boston superstar led the sport in fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. While Betts hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, he has still avoided outs at a phenomenal clip (.400 in 255 trips to the plate). The 26-year-old has walked 14-plus percent of the time for the second consecutive season, but a 55-point decline in batting average (.346 to .291) and a 54-point BABIP drop (.368 to .314) have hurt his OBP. Plus, Betts isn’t on pace to match the eight HBPs he totaled in 2018, having picked up only two so far.

Joey Votto, Reds (2018 OBP: .417):

Votto’s the “potential Hall of Famer” named in the opening. The hitting savant has managed a remarkable .424 OBP dating back to his 2007 debut, in part because he has drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2019. Now in his age-35 season, Votto’s walk rate is at a pedestrian-by-his-standards 11.6 percent – down nearly 5 points from his career mark –  while his strikeouts have soared. Putting the ball in play less helps explain why Votto, a lifetime .309 hitter, has only mustered a .242 average this season. Worse, Statcast credits Votto with a .229 expected average, indicating a rebound may not be on the way. Despite his newfound woes, Votto has still put up an above-average .340 OBP in 215 PA this year, but it’s nothing to get excited about in the venerable first baseman’s case.

Brandon Nimmo, Mets (2018 OBP: .404):

Nimmo’s far and away the least accomplished member of this list, but that doesn’t take away that the 26-year-old was a stupendous offensive player in 2018. As only a .264 hitter, though, his high OBP came thanks in part to a league-leading 22 HBPs over 433 PA. Nimmo has not been a magnet for pitches this year, however, having taken three in 130 trips to the plate. He’s also batting a mere .200 and has seen his BABIP fall from .351 to .288. Nimmo is collecting walks at a terrific clip (16.1 percent), but his .344 OBP is still a 60-point drop-off from last season.

Christian Yelich, Brewers (2018 OBP: .402):

We arrive at the other MVP on this list. What’s Yelich, 26, doing for an encore? Well, he ranks third in the majors in OBP (.425), in part because his walk rate has climbed from 10.4 percent to 15.1. Yelich has also logged a .314 average even though his BABIP has sunk 87 points since last year.

J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .402):

Martinez, described above as “an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship,” has been closer to very good than great this season. A .375 BABIP/.330 average helped drive Martinez’s OBP last season, but he’s at .315/.298 in those categories through 219 PA this season. Consequently, the 31-year-old has “only” reached base 37.9 percent of the time. But Martinez is striking out a lot less, which bodes well, and Statcast puts his expected average at .321. Another .400-OBP season certainly isn’t out of the question for Martinez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Injury Updates: Yelich, Cano, Tatis

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A few prominent National Leaguers departed their teams’ games with injuries on Sunday. Here’s the latest on that group:

  • Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich exited the club’s loss to the Mets with lower back discomfort, Sarah Langs of MLB.com writes. Fortunately for the slumping Brew Crew, manager Craig Counsell suggested that Yelich will steer clear of the injured list. The reigning NL MVP is enjoying another transcendent season thus far, having slashed a video game-like .353/.460/.804 with a major league-leading 14 home runs over 124 plate appearances.
  • On the other side of Sunday’s Milwaukee-New York matchup, the Mets lost second baseman Robinson Cano after he took an 88 mph Gio Gonzalez fastball off his left hand. An X-ray on Cano came back negative, but the Mets are “still a little concerned,” manager Mickey Callaway told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com and other reporters. Cano will undergo an MRI on Monday. In the meantime, the Mets will hope this doesn’t prove to be another serious injury for Cano, whose OPS has climbed from .551 to .754 over the past two weeks. Cano suffered a fractured right hand on a hit by pitch when he was with the Mariners last year.
  • Padres rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. had to leave the team’s loss to the Nationals with a hamstring injury, but it seems the shortstop will avoid an IL stint. Tatis will miss “a few days” at most, sources tell the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee, who reports the 20-year-old could even play Monday. The Padres will know more then about the status of Tatis, who, just 27 games into his career, has already emerged as one of the up-and-coming franchise’s best players. The early NL Rookie of the Year candidate has slashed .300/.360/.550 with six homers and six steals in 111 PA.

Christian Yelich, Mookie Betts Win MVP Awards

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The Baseball Writers’ Association of America announced tonight that Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich was voted the Most Valuable Player of the National League. Meanwhile, fellow outfielder Mookie Betts took the prize in the American League.

Yelich nearly pulled off a unanimous win after helping lead the Brew Crew to a stirring NL Central title. Only one first-place vote went to another player, as Mets hurler Jacob deGrom was not-unjustly rewarded for an exceptional season that already netted him a Cy Young Award.

Clearly, though, Yelich stood above the rest of the position-player field. It surely helped his case that he led a resurgent Brewers club, but the 26-year-old turned in a stellar first year in Milwaukee quite apart from what his teammates did around him. In 651 plate appearances, he turned in a .326/.402/.598 batting line with 36 home runs and 22 steals.

That eye-popping offensive output, combined with solid glovework and excellent overall baserunning, left Yelich with a hefty tally of 7.6 WAR (by measure of both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference). Cubs infielder Javier Baez placed second, with Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado finishing in bronze-medal position.

As for Betts, his season was even more compelling, allowing him to stand out even against a field of excellent contenders in the American League. He finished the season with a ridiculous .346/.438/.640 slash while qualifying for the 30/30 club. Plus, he’s widely considered one of the best defenders and baserunners in the game.

It’s a credit to Betts that he was able to top yet another MVP-worthy performance from the incomparable Mike Trout, whose perennial excellence is not diminished by the fact that a rotating cast of others has occasionally matched or bettered him. Indians infielder Jose Ramirez turned in a second consecutive third-place finish.

Injury Notes: T. Walker, Brewers, S. Perez, DeShields

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Here’s the latest injury news from around the majors:

  • Diamondbacks right-hander Taijuan Walker left his start against the Dodgers on Saturday with forearm tightness, Arizona announced. Walker departed after throwing two innings, during which he experienced a drop in velocity, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. While the severity of Walker’s injury is not yet clear, forearm tightness often leads to more serious elbow troubles. The D-backs are left to hope this isn’t a major issue for Walker, who impressed with them last year – his first with the club – and has begun 2018 with 13 innings of 3.46 ERA pitching.
  • Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich is eligible to come off the disabled list Sunday, but the club won’t activate him then, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com tweets. Yelich, who suffered an oblique injury last week, isn’t yet 100 percent, McCalvy notes. Meanwhile, fellow corner outfielder Ryan Braun left Saturday’s game against the Mets with back tightness, Adam Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel was among those to report. Whether it’s problematic enough to lead to a DL stint isn’t yet known. Braun, of course, missed 58 games last year while dealing with various injuries.
  • Royals catcher Salvador Perez could make his 2018 debut during the team’s next homestand, which runs from April 24-29, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com writes. Perez, who suffered a Grade 2 MCL tear in his left knee on March 28, began a rehab assignment at the Double-A level on Saturday. The Perez-less Royals have gotten terrible offensive production early this year from behind-the-plate fill-ins Drew Butera and Cam Gallagher, who combined for a .175/.227/.250 line entering Saturday. Thanks in part to their struggles, Kansas City’s a woeful 3-10.
  • Rangers center fielder Delino DeShields could come back earlier than expected from the broken left hamate bone he suffered March 31, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News relays. DeShields was slated to miss four to six weeks at the time of the injury, but he’s aiming for an April 23 return – which would be three weeks. The Rangers’ reserve options, Drew Robinson and Carlos Tocci, haven’t exactly stepped up during DeShields’ absence. Robinson has hit a meek .167/.255/.262 in 47 plate appearances, while Tocci has collected only one hit in 10 trips to the plate.

Brewers Place Christian Yelich on 10-Day DL

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After letting him sit out a few games with a minor oblique injury, the Brewers have elected to place outfielder Christian Yelich on the 10-day DL. In a corresponding move, the team has recalled right-hander Taylor Williams from Triple-A Colorado Springs.

During Yelich’s absence, it seems likely that Domingo Santana will fill in for him in the outfield. Yelich was off to a hot start for the 2018 season; he’s hit .385/.407/.577 across 27 plate appearances for the Brew Crew with one long ball and five runs driven in.  The 26-year-old has played at least 155 games in consecutive seasons, a streak that will now officially come to an end with the news that he’ll miss at least the ten-day minimum.

Yelich, of course, was perhaps the Brewers’ biggest offseason addition. The club sent top prospects Lewis Brinson and Isan Diaz, along with two other minor-leaguers, to Miami in order to bring the young slugger to Milwaukee. He sports a career .291/.366/.433 batting line across his first 2,839 plate appearances, with 60 homers and a 121 wRC+.

Quick Hits: Early FA Offers, Padres, Labor Relations

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Let’s round out the day’s coverage with a few interesting notes from around the game:

  • Three prominent players have reportedly agreed to terms in recent days, all settling for much less in dollars and years than had been expected. Reports also suggest that those players could have had greater earnings had they taken offers available previously. Though agent Scott Boras says Mike Moustakas never received a multi-year contract offer before returning to the Royals, two sources tell Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star that the Angels dangled a three-year pact in the range of $45MM. Meanwhile, the Rockies are said to have offered slugger Carlos Gonzalez an extension in the realm of three years and $45MM this time last year, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports on Twitter. And the Rox also were willing to go to three years, at a $21MM guarantee, to catcher Jonathan Lucroy earlier this winter, Nightengale adds on Twitter. (Lucroy is reportedly in agreement on a one-year deal with the Athletics, though terms are not yet known and the deal is not finalized.) Of course, in each case it’s easy to understand why the player in question might have elected against jumping at the reported opportunity at the point at which it was presented.
  • In other news that’s largely of historical interest, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag provided some notes on the Padres’ offseason efforts. The team was able to land Eric Hosmer after Kansas City was unable to earn ownership authorization for its initially reported, seven-year offer, Heyman reports. That seemingly helps explain why subsequent reports indicated that K.C. never went that high in the bidding. San Diego also “made a big play” for outfielder Christian Yelich before he was shipped from the Marlins to the Brewers, Heyman notes in his leaguewide rundown of information. Notably, the Pads effectively ended up adding an outfielder when they inked Hosmer, thus pushing Wil Myers back onto the grass.
  • Some of the above information suggests, to an extent, that some players missed chances at bigger earnings, though perhaps it might only mean that others would have ended up enduring rough trips through free agency. And the reported offers are hardly overwhelming numbers for those players. Those interested in the broader subject of labor relations will certainly want to read this recent piece from Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston, who takes a long look at what the union could do to begin fighting back against some of the problems that have arisen from the players’ perspective under the current CBA. Meanwhile, J.J. Cooper of Baseball America also tackles the subject, arguing that the owners will need to be careful not to press their advantage too strongly. And union chief Tony Clark discussed some of the qualms with the Marlins, who are one of the teams facing a grievance from the MLBPA, as Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports.

Brewers Notes: Outfield, Vogt, Nelson, Braun, Aguilar

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Much has been made of the Brewers’ crowded outfield and the potential need to trade someone from that mix, but manager Craig Counsell doesn’t see it that way. Speaking to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, Counsell described a rotation of Ryan Braun, Lorenzo Cain, Christian Yelich, Domingo Santana and Eric Thames between the three outfield spots and first base that could still get everyone from that quintet ample playing time. “If you split it evenly with five guys, that’s 560 [plate appearances] apiece,” Counsell explained, using a rough guideline of about 2800 PAs over the four positions. “With injuries and everything, we’ll find a way. Some guys will get 500, and some will get 600, but it will work out.” Of course, the Brewers also have Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips on hand, though each has minor league options remaining and could be used as a high-quality depth piece (or a trade candidate — either over the next month or later this summer).

Here’s more out of Milwaukee…

  • Catcher Stephen Vogt has been diagnosed with a shoulder strain and will miss the next two to three weeks of Spring Training games, per Tom Haudricourt and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. He’ll also be shut down from throwing for a week. As Haudricourt and Rosiak note, the injury could have significant repercussions for Vogt and could very well impact the Opening Day roster. Vogt’s $3.05MM contract, like the vast majority of arbitration contracts, isn’t fully guaranteed. The Brewers could theoretically cut him and be on the hook only for 30 to 45 days of termination pay between now and Opening Day. Vogt is competing with Jett Bandy to serve as the backup to Manny Pina this season, and Bandy is out of minor league options, meaning he’d be exposed to waivers or traded if he doesn’t make the Opening Day roster.
  • Also via Haudricourt and Rosiak, Brewers ace Jimmy Nelson is still limited to throwing from flat ground and won’t get onto a mound until after the season starts. The team isn’t giving any sort of firm timeline on when Nelson can be expected to return to the big league club, though the report posits that a return around the All-Star break is plausible for Nelson, who underwent shoulder surgery last September after suffering an injury when diving back into first base.
  • Braun got his first work of the spring in at first base and saw plenty of action in today’s game, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. “There were runners on base quite a bit, so he was holding runners, getting a feel for that,” said Counsell. “He had a pick in the second inning. He had to get in the cutoff position on a couple of different plays. I would say it was a real positive experience for the first day. Some things to put through his head that he can check off the list as experiences.” As McCalvy points out, the Braun experiment at first base will impact more than just the outfield rotation; Braun seeing more action at first could also have a direct impact on Jesus Aguilar’s role with the club, though it’s not year clear how the Brewers will sort out their considerable depth. Aguilar, like Bandy, is out of minor league options, thus further muddling the scenario.

NL East Notes: Marlins, Bour, Cabrera, Mets, Joseph, Braves

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It was no secret that Christian Yelich wasn’t happy with the Marlins’ latest fire sale, and the team felt that Yelich could’ve become a clubhouse distraction had he remained on the roster, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports.  This is why trading Yelich was more of a priority than dealing catcher J.T. Realmuto, as “the Marlins believe Realmuto will be a good soldier if he isn’t traded.”  Of course, Realmuto has reportedly asked for a trade as well, though Miami is reportedly holding out only for a big return if the catcher is to be moved.  Jackson also notes that first baseman Justin Bour (a popular target for teams calling the Marlins) hasn’t asked for a trade.

More from around the NL East…

  • “If I had the opportunity to pick a position, I would pick second base,” Asdrubal Cabrera tells Kevin Kernan of the New York Post.  This represents a change in attitude from during the season, when Cabrera was openly unhappy about moving from shortstop to the keystone, though Cabrera explained to Kernan that his displeasure over the position change stemmed from the move seemingly being sprung upon him with little notice.  “I was not happy with the communication,” Cabrera said.  The veteran infielder also noted that he likes playing third base, which looks to be his primary position for 2018 as things currently stand on the Mets’ roster.  New York has been primarily linked to second basemen in trade and free agent rumors, though Cabrera’s flexibility (and that of the re-signed Jose Reyes) make it possible that the Mets could still make a play for a third baseman.
  • The Phillies have been unable to find a trade partner for Tommy Joseph this offseason, leaving the first baseman fighting for a roster spot as Spring Training approaches, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb writes (subscription required and recommended).  Rhys Hoskins’ presence led the Phils to shop Joseph last summer, and the path to first base playing time has become even more blocked now that Carlos Santana is a Phillie.  “You don’t know where you fit in,” Joseph said. “You don’t know what your role is. But those are all things that will evolve as spring training gets started and as we get deeper into March….I’ll go out there and earn my keep.”  As Gelb notes, the Phillies’ trade efforts have been hampered by the presence of so many other first base options still available in free agency.  Joseph still has a minor league option remaining, so he could find himself back in Triple-A after hitting 43 homers and a .247/.297/.460 slash line over his first 880 MLB plate appearances.
  • The Braves plan to have a spirited Spring Training competition for rotation jobs, as manager Brian Snitker tells Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that as many as three starting spots could be up for grabs.  Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz have two slots spoken for, and the newly-acquired Brandon McCarthy will be a strong favorite for the third slot if healthy.  That leaves the likes of Max Fried, Luiz Gohara, Lucas Sims, Sean Newcomb, and Mike Soroka battling for the remaining rotation spots, plus Scott Kazmir could also be a factor if he can recover from the injuries that sidelined him for all of the 2017 season.  Atlanta is more likely to use the starters that don’t win jobs as relievers rather than again use a six-man rotation, Snitker said.

AL East Notes: Jays, Yelich, Guerrero, Schoop, O’s, Yankees, Sox, JDM

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The Blue Jays were “the only other team that came close” to acquiring Christian Yelich from the Marlins before the outfielder was dealt to the Brewers, SiriusXM’s Craig Mish reports (Twitter links).  “Several variations” of trade packages were discussed between the Jays and Marlins, including some deals that would’ve seen Toronto take some extra money off Miami’s payroll.  What ended talks between the two sides was the Jays’ refusal to deal Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  It was no secret that the Marlins were demanding a big return for Yelich, and it also isn’t surprising that the Jays balked at moving Guerrero, one of baseball’s very best prospects.

Here are more rumblings from around the AL East…

  • Despite “a significant reduction in the gap between” the arbitration numbers filed by the Orioles and Jonathan Schoop, “the level of frustration on both sides is growing” as a deal still isn’t close, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes.  In what could be a related story, Schoop didn’t attend the Orioles’ FanFest this weekend, which left manager Buck Showalter “disappointed,” implying that Schoop’s agent advised the second baseman to skip the event (as per Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun and other reporters).  Schoop filed for a $9MM salary while the Orioles filed at $7.5MM.  Kevin Gausman’s arbitration case has also yet to be settled, though Kubatko hears that the O’s will continue to talk to both Gausman and Schoop in the hopes of avoiding a hearing.
  • The Yankees have roughly $10-$15MM ticketed to spend on a starting pitcher or an infielder who can play second base and/or third base, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes.  If everything breaks right for the Yankees in regards to the slow free agent market, they could fill both needs with those funds.  With the club intent on staying under the $197MM luxury tax threshold, that $10-$15MM will leave the Yankees with around $15-20MM on other potential expenses (i.e. contract bonuses, in-season callups or midseason trade acquisitions).  Adding a second baseman would provide depth if Gleyber Torres needs more minor league time as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and Sherman notes that delaying Torres’ debut would help the Yankees gain an extra year of team control over the star infield prospect.
  • With Lorenzo Cain landing a five-year commitment from the Brewers, the Boston Herald’s Michael Silverman believes that the Red Sox may be forced to offer J.D. Martinez more than the five-year deal they reportedly have on the table for the free agent outfielder.  Martinez is two years younger than Cain and can be signed without draft pick compensation, which could go towards enhancing Scott Boras’ argument that Martinez should receive at least a six-year deal.

AL Central Notes: Cain, Tribe, Mondesi, Royals, Hahn, Wilson

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The Indians felt they had a shot at signing Lorenzo Cain to a three-year deal, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes, though they still would have needed to trade another notable contract off the roster to accommodate a Cain signing.  Management felt a pursuit of Cain was a risk worth taking, as the Tribe is very familiar with the center fielder’s abilities from his years as a division rival.  Cleveland was able to land Edwin Encarnacion on a smaller-than-expected three-year deal last winter due to a slow market, though while Cain’s market also took a while to develop, he still had multiple four-year offers on the table (and eventually landed five years from the Brewers).  It isn’t clear if the Tribe is still looking to make a notable outfield addition if they can clear payroll, or if the team was only willing to make such a big splash for Cain specifically.

Some more from around the AL Central…

  • With Alcides Escobar on the verge of re-signing with the Royals, GM Dayton Moore still sees Raul Mondesi Jr. as a notable piece of the team’s future, Moore told reporters (including Maria Torres and Pete Grathoff of the Kansas City Star).  Mondesi had been expected to take on a larger role as the everyday shortstop this season, though the additions of Escobar and Ryan Goins as shortstop depth could see Mondesi spend time at other positions.  “[Mondesi] can play second base, he can play short, he’s good enough to play center field. We’ll see how that emerges,” Moore said.  “We don’t have a clear vision of that right now, other than to simply say that he is a talent that we expect to develop.”  It still seems as though K.C. plans to see quite a lot of Mondesi this season, as Moore said that Mondesi’s development is best helped by appearing in “five of six, five of seven” games per week.
  • On the flip side, Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wonders if the Royals may have moved on from Mondesi and are now looking at prospect Nicky Lopez as their shortstop of the future.  Some scouts and executives from around the league are troubled by Mondesi’s bat control and lack of plate discipline, as well as concerns about his off-the-field preparation and focus issues.  Longenhagen feels that teams with an interest in Mondesi’s potential should be calling the Royals in case Kansas City would be open to trading the shortstop.
  • The White Sox will be ready and willing to spend when they move from rebuilders to contenders, GM Rick Hahn told CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine and other reporters.  “Ultimately, competing for free agents and targeting big-ticket items and hopefully converting on them will be the next logical step when the time is right,” Hahn said.  “Anyone who doubts that we will break from past perception or past process, I believe the evidence is there over the last year that those old standards are gone.”  Chicago has explored making some high-profile (and pricey) trades for the likes of Manny Machado and Christian Yelich this winter, and in my opinion, it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see the Sox make a play for one of the big-name free agents still on the market.  Speaking of Yelich, Hahn said (via Levine’s Twitter) that the White Sox “we were not comfortable going above what we offered” the Marlins in negotiations.
  • Alex Wilson will stretch out as a starter in the Tigers’ spring camp, the right-hander tells Chris McCosky of the Detroit News.  Just one of Wilson’s 231 MLB appearances has come as a starting pitcher, and even that was a three-inning emergency outing in 2015.  Still, Wilson has been a durable multi-inning reliever and feels a transition is possible.  As McCosky notes, it’s essentially “a no-risk experiment” for the Tigers since Wilson can always return to his previous bullpen role if the rotation move doesn’t pan out.  Wilson posted a 2.47 ERA over 171 1/3 IP from 2014-16, though an inflated homer rate boosted his ERA to 4.50 over 60 frames last season.  The righty also said that he is fully recovered from a broken right leg suffered last September.

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