- The incentive bonuses for Scott Feldman and Drew Storen are broken down by Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer, as Storen has already reached his first incentive threshold (15 appearances) and Feldman will access his bonus money on Monday when he makes his 10th start of the season. Feldman will earn $100K for that outing, and then another $100K or $200K for each successive start thereafter, up to 25 starts. The righty also has extra cash available in relief incentives, though Feldman isn’t likely to be moved out of the Reds rotation anytime soon, due to both his own solid performance (a 4.29 ERA in 50 1/3 IP) and Cincy’s lack of healthy alternatives. Storen has pitched very well out of the Reds bullpen and is in great shape to earn his $750K in available incentives for appearances, though attaining his games-finished bonuses could be difficult with Raisel Iglesias locked in at closer.
Reds Rumors
Anthony DeSclafani Cleared To Resume Throwing
Reds righty Anthony DeSclafani has been cleared to resume throwing, according to John Fay of WCPO.com (via Twitter). DeSclafani has been out all year while resting a sprained ulnar collateral ligament.
While the initial hope was that DeSclafani could begin working back within about a month of the diagnosis, that obviously wasn’t to be. Last we checked in, late in April, doctors had not observed sufficient healing to clear the 27-year-old.
Now, per the report, the medical experts have observed significant improvement in DeSclafani’s UCL. While a precise throwing program is still being worked out, it seems that he’ll begin the march back with hopes of returning to the majors this summer. At this point, clearly, he’ll still need a substantial amount of time to build up arm strength and undertake a rehab assignment.
Cincinnati has struggled to find good innings from its rotation, which desperately misses DeSclafani, among others. Homer Bailey and Brandon Finnegan are also unavailable. (Bailey is a bit further ahead in his own recovery; as Fay adds on Twitter, he’s ready to begin facing live hitters.)
In DeSclafani’s case, the return effort will come at an interesting time. His absence to date has already dented his upcoming trip through arbitration — which will be his first. It has also taken out of consideration as a trade chip, at least temporarily. If DeSclafani can regain the excellent form he showed last year — 3.28 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 over twenty starts — and stay healthy, he’ll have a case for a solid payday and could be a heavily pursued deadline asset.
Reds Claim Peter O’Brien
The Reds have claimed first baseman/outfielder Peter O’Brien off waivers from the Royals, per a club announcement. He has been optioned to Triple-A. Lefty Brandon Finnegan will head to the 60-day DL to create 40-man space.
[Related: Updated Cincinnati Reds depth chart]
Cincinnati has had some recent success with plucking high-power prospects who had fallen out of favor with other organizations, and will look to do just that here. O’Brien was designated recently by Kansas City, though he had not appeared at the major league level with the organization. Over his 115 plate appearances on the year at Triple-A, the 26-year-old owns a .162/.235/.276 slash with 31 strikeouts.
That’s a disappointing showing, to be sure, but it’s not a representative sample of O’Brien’s overall minor-league track record. He has been a steadily productive hitter, and carries a .259/.307/.503 batting line with 53 home runs in 1,083 career plate appearances at the highest level of the minors. Though his high-strikeout, low-walk approach makes him a questionable bet ever to reach base at a palatable clip in the majors, O’Brien’s power is a strong enough tool that the Reds will take a chance.
Amir Garrett To Rejoin Reds During Upcoming Week
- Left-hander Amir Garrett, whom the Reds optioned to Triple-A last Sunday, will rejoin the big league rotation during the upcoming week, manager Bryan Price said Sunday (Twitter link via C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Garrett has thrown two scoreless innings since the Reds sent him down to Louisville. Before that, the rookie impressed at the major league level with five quality starts in six opportunities. Aside from a dreadful April 24 showing against the Brewers, who teed off on Garrett for nine earned runs on eight hits and four walks in 3 1/3 innings, the 25-year-old hasn’t lasted fewer than six frames or allowed more than two earned runs in any of his starts.
Roster Flexibility Aids Reds
- While things have been far from perfect in the Reds pitching staff, the current roster represents a major upgrade in at least one way, as Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. Despite needing to rotate through some arms, the club has only needed to clear a 40-man spot on one occasion, owing to the presence of more optionable players.
NL Central Notes: Davis, Pirates, Shaw
The Reds announced this morning that right-hander Rookie Davis has been optioned to Triple-A Louisville. The 24-year-old Davis, acquired in the trade that sent Aroldis Chapman to the Yankees, had a nice season in Double-A last year and performed well in Spring Training, but he’s been hit hard through five starts in the Majors. Davis has worked a total of 19 innings, yielding 16 earned runs (7.58 ERA) on 29 hits and 13 walks with 15 strikeouts. A corresponding move hasn’t been announced, though Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets that a Triple-A arm is likely to be recalled to join the rotation rather than turning to Robert Stephenson for a spot start.
A couple more notes from the NL Central…
- The Pirates have, incredibly, deployed 30 different lineups and 29 different defensive alignments (not including the starting pitcher) thus far in 2017, per Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. A large portion of the shuffles have been borne out of necessity, as Nesbitt also points out that the Bucs are currently carrying nine rookies on their roster. “There’s not always experienced guys to go get,” said manager Clint Hurdle of the team’s youthful composition. “With what’s happened to us, this wasn’t the plan coming in. This is an adapt, improvise and overcome situation.” While many Pirates fans have clamored for the team to pursue outside help, Hurdle suggested that improvements aren’t available at this time. “We don’t feel there have been better options outside,” said the manager.
- Nesbitt also writes that the Pirates now seem to have entirely scrapped their offseason outfield realignment, as Gregory Polanco has been shifted back to right field. The suspension of Starling Marte led Pittsburgh to move Andrew McCutchen back to center field, and Polanco’s shift back to right field is tied to the revolving door that the Bucs have had at that spot. “He’s done fine. Pretty average metrics in left,” said Hurdle of Polanco. “But we keep shuffling guys into right, and we’ve already got a guy who has played right pretty well.” Of course, Polanco’s move across the outfield could lead to similar issues in left field. Asked if he’ll keep Polanco in right field once Marte returns from his suspension, Hurdle said the team hasn’t yet made that decision.
- Brewers third baseman Travis Shaw and Red Sox right-hander Tyler Thornburg were swapped for one another this offseason but are in very different places as Milwaukee takes on Boston in interleague play, notes Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Shaw has settled in as the Brewers’ cleanup hitter, and his seven homers, 24 RBIs and .544 slugging percentage would all lead the Red Sox. Thornburg, meanwhile, has yet to pitch in a game for the Sox due to a shoulder impingement that has him on the disabled list. Thornburg expressed frustration about his injury and his subsequent inability to face his former team, while Shaw admitted that the games against his former team mean a bit more. “Everybody is a competitor,” Shaw told Haudricourt. “You want to kind of show your old team up.” The trade looks to be a good one for the Brewers at present, though a healthy Thornburg could certainly balance out the scales. The 28-year-old logged a 2.15 ERA and averaged better than 12 strikeouts per nine innings pitched with Milwaukee last year.
Dick Williams On Amir Garrett
- Though the Reds optioned lefty Amir Garrett recently, president of baseball operations Dick Williams says he expects to bring the youngster back soon (in an interview with MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM; audio link). Garrett, who just turned 25, has been rather solid in his six starts, providing 36 innings of 4.25 ERA ball. But the plan heading into the season was never to ride any of the team’s young arms too hard. “We’ve got a lot of young guys that we’re excited to see this year on the roster,” Williams explains. “And the idea was, ’We’re going to get you up, we’re going to get you opportunities. All of you are going to see opportunities in the big leagues, and all of you are going to be back in Triple-A at some point, just for sheer numbers and innings management.'” In Garrett’s case, some upcoming off-days presented an opportunity to slow his accumulation of innings; he has never previously gone past 144 2/3 frames. “Most importantly, it gives Amir the ability to be on pace to pitch into September, which is what we want these guys to learn how to do,” said Williams.
Reds Option Amir Garrett To Triple-A
- In a surprising development, the Reds announced Sunday that they’ve optioned left-hander Amir Garrett to Triple-A Louisville. Aside from one poor start on April 24, when the Brewers teed off on Garrett for nine earned runs on eight hits in 3 1/3 innings, the 25-year-old has pitched well enough to remain in the majors. The rookie surrendered two or fewer earned runs in his other six starts, all of which lasted at least six frames. All told, Garrett has recorded a 4.25 ERA, 7.0 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and a 44.7 percent ground-ball rate in 36 innings. The Reds are entering a stretch in which they will only need four starters, which will give them an opportunity to manage Garrett’s workload, tweets Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Service time considerations may have also factored into this decision, as the Reds will only need to keep Garrett in the minors for about two weeks to control him through 2023 instead of 2022. For now, right-hander Barrett Astin is up from Triple-A to take Garrett’s place on the Reds’ roster.
Reds Spending On Team Infrastructure
- The Reds’ rebuild is examined by Tyler Kepner of the New York Times, who writes that as part of the process, Cincinnati has spent heavily to upgrade its scouting, analytics, sports science and medical departments. The Reds, who are the only team to never have a Japanese player on their roster, have also invested in a Pacific Rim scouting department.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Zack Cozart
Reds shortstop Zack Cozart has long been an interesting player, with outstanding glovework making him a regular at short despite an often-lagging bat. But he began to show signs of life at the plate in 2015, suggesting the possibility of more. Now, at 31 years of age — with free agency beckoning at season’s end — Cozart is playing like an All-Star.
Perhaps this surge would now be less surprising had it not been for a devastating knee injury that disrupted Cozart’s ’15 campaign after just 53 games. At that point, he was slashing .258/.310/.459 and had swatted nine home runs. Upon returning last year, Cozart fell back a bit in overall productivity, but still managed 16 long balls and produced a 91 wRC+ — good enough to make him a 2.5 fWAR player.
Cozart has opened the 2017 season on a hot streak. It’s still early — he has only taken 97 plate appearances — so it’s best to temper expectations. But perhaps there’s more to it than just noting the surge and cautioning on the sample size. He’s hitting a BABIP-aided .329 and delivering an excellent isolated slugging mark (.220) despite just one home run. That’s all promising enough. But Cozart is also walking at heretofore-unseen levels. He entered the year with just a 5.6% career walk rate, but has nearly tripled that (to 14.4%) in the early going, leaving him with a robust .423 on-base percentage .
As ever, it’s fair to wonder whether that apparent improvement can be sustained. Cozart is approaching, but hasn’t quite reached, the stabilization point for walk rate, and even then you’d have to maintain a healthy degree of skepticism and bear in mind his longer track record. But this is the third straight year that Cozart has shown growth in his ability to take free passes. And there are other signs of a real change that shouldn’t be ignored. Cozart’s swing percentage sits at just under forty percent, well shy of his 46.5% career mark. And he’s not just watching more strikes go by: Cozart has offered at pitches out of the zone just 22.7% of the time, a significant reduction from his 29.4% career average. When he does swing, Cozart is missing just 5.6% of the time; again, that’s a significant change (7.3% career SwStr%).
While his strikeout rate is also up a bit, that’s an easy sacrifice to make when these are the results. It would be silly to expect Cozart to continue walking with quite this frequency, but even a bump up to league average (8.8%) would represent a major change in his profile. That might support a league-average on-base percentage. Combine that with the fact that Cozart has posted above-average isolated slugging marks over the past three seasons, and you’re suddenly looking at a real offensive threat.
Let’s not forget: the real calling card here is defense. Cozart doesn’t get talked about as one of the game’s best fielders, but metrics suggest he is. We’re not looking at a small sample here, either. Since he began receiving regular playing time in 2012, Cozart has been an elite defender. While he has traditionally rated as merely an average baserunner, the glove is good enough that Cozart doesn’t have to hit all that much to be an asset.
So, the arrow is pointing up right now, though there’s obviously a long season ahead. Cozart did miss time last year with ongoing issues relating to his 2015 knee surgery; while it seems he’s healthy now, he’ll need to stay that way. And teams will be watching closely to see just what portion of Cozart’s improvements at the plate can be maintained throughout the course of a long season.
As we watch to see how things progress — gauging not only Cozart’s open-market value but also his trade value this summer — there are some markers to bear in mind. Come August, Cozart will reach 32 years of age — just as J.J. Hardy did back in 2014 before signing a three-year, $40MM extension with the Orioles that kept him from reaching the open market. Hardy was an even more extreme version of Cozart at the plate, and was a similarly excellent defender, so seems a highly relevant comp. Though Hardy had a clearer record of success to that point, though, he also hadn’t shown anything like Cozart’s current changes at the plate.
If you see Cozart as a slightly above-average hitter, whose power is sometimes offset by questionable on-base numbers and patches of streakiness, then you’re looking at something like the profile of Ian Desmond, who just landed $70MM over five years. True, Cozart is a middling baserunner, while Desmond is one of the game’s best. But the situation is flipped on defense, where Cozart’s high-level play at short outeighs Desmond’s versatility. But the best aspirational comp is perhaps Brandon Crawford, whose blend of solid plate discipline and pop with otherworldly defense has made him a star (and earned him a six-year, $75MM extension).
Of course, it’s far from clear that Cozart will be able to score anything approaching those kinds of years and dollars, particularly given his age and the still-unknown level of demand. But he’s beginning to make out an argument that he’s just as valuable a player as some of his better-known peers.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
