Julio Rodriguez Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award
Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez has won the Rookie of the Year award in the American League for 2022, according to an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman finished second in the voting, while Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan checked in third.
This year’s rookie class in the Junior Circuit was remarkable, headlined by Rodríguez and Rutschman. The pair of top prospects both hit the ground running against MLB pitching. Seattle carried Rodríguez on the roster as their Opening Day center fielder, looking to build off their surprising 90-win campaign in 2021. The young outfielder got off to a tough start, thanks in part to a number of questionable strike calls in the early going, but he eventually emerged as the best position player on a good Seattle club.
Over 560 plate appearances, Rodríguez posted a .284/.345/.509 line. He connected on 28 home runs and swiped 25 bases in 32 attempts, one of just four players (Kyle Tucker, Adolis García and Marcus Semien being the others) to reach 25 longballs and steals apiece. Rodríguez was particularly electric in the second half, putting up a .303/.361/.576 line coming out of the All-Star Break to help Seattle cruise to its first postseason appearance in more than two decades.
Rodríguez also impressed on the other side of the ball, starting 130 games and playing 1126 2/3 innings in center field. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast credited him with above-average defense, no small feat for a player whom some prospect evaluators suggested might be a better fit for right field. The 21-year-old looks to have put any questions about his defensive home to bed for the time being.
While Rodríguez is surely thrilled to secure Rookie of the Year honors on its own merits, the selection has a tangible effect on the team as well. The new collective bargaining agreement contained measures designed to counteract service time manipulation through the so-called “prospect promotion incentive.” Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That’s a moot point for Rodríguez, who’d have qualified for a full service year after tallying 172-plus days on the MLB roster regardless. He also signed a massive contract extension midseason that overwrites his path to arbitration and free agency.
The second portion of the PPI does come into effect, though. A team that promotes a player for a full service year who meets the aforementioned prospect criteria and entered the year with less than 60 days of MLB service who subsequently finishes top two in ROY balloting (or top three in Cy Young or MVP voting during their pre-arbitration seasons) earns a bonus draft pick after the first round. Seattle carried Rodríguez on the roster all year, so they’ll collect an extra pick in the 2023 draft in recognition of his achievements.
Rutschman and Kwan check in as runners-up after very strong years in their own right. Baltimore’s catcher hit .254/.362/.445 with 13 home runs in 470 plate appearances. His second-place finish earns him a full year of service time as well. Kwan doesn’t that get that honor for third place, but he earned a full service year after breaking camp in Cleveland regardless. Rutschman’s former teammate at Oregon State, Kwan hit .298/.373/.400 across 638 plate appearances to help the Guards to a division title.
Rodríguez received 29 of 30 first-place votes, while Rutschman collected the other. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, the lone voter to place Rutschman ahead of Rodríguez, explained his thought process in a well-reasoned Twitter thread. Rodríguez was the only player to be named on all 30 ballots. Rutschman was selected on 28 ballots, while Kwan earned 24 combined second or third-place votes. Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., Astros shortstop Jeremy Peña and Mariners righty George Kirby also picked up some support.
Full vote breakdown found here.
Guardians’ Chris Antonetti On Shane Bieber, Catchers
In an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM, Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti flatly rejected the idea that Shane Bieber will be a trade candidate this winter. “We have every intention of trying to contend next year, and trying to win a World Series. And, Shane Bieber will be a big part of that for us,” Antonetti said.
Naturally, some gamesmanship could be at play here, and the Guards (at least as a matter of due diligence) would consider any serious offer another team might float for Bieber. Given Cleveland’s history of trading star players as their arbitration costs rise, the Bieber trade speculation won’t really end until he actually does change teams, or unless he signs an extension. However, there is plenty of evidence to suggest that moving Bieber isn’t on the Guardians’ radar in the near future.
Bieber was arbitration-eligible for the first time last winter, and avoided a hearing by working out a $6MM contract for the 2022 season. The high number reflected Bieber’s early success, which included All-Star appearances in 2019 and 2021, and the AL Cy Young Award during the shortened 2020 season.
The right-hander kept on rolling through 2022, posting a 2.88 over an even 200 innings, with a 48.2% grounder rate, an elite 4.6% walk rate and an above-average 25% strikeout rate. While that K% was his lowest since 2018, Bieber seemed to trade strikeouts for extra control, changing up his mix of pitches with great success. Bieber used his curveball a lot less and his cutter a lot more, with both pitches becoming more effective as a result.
Now projected for a healthy raise to $10.7MM in 2023, Bieber’s salary isn’t really onerous for a Guardians team that doesn’t have much committed to its 2023 or longer-term payroll pictures. Plus, as Antonetti noted, Cleveland wants to compete for a championship, so it is possible ownership might be willing to even stretch the budget a bit to supplement a title run.
Next winter, it is possible things could change. Bieber’s third and final arbitration year should be worth well over $15MM if he continues this good form, and he is scheduled to reach free agency in the 2024-25 offseason. An extension would lock Bieber up in Cleveland for good, yet the Guardians traditionally tend to only extend players early in their careers (though Jose Ramirez‘s extension last spring was a very prominent exception to this rule).
Come next winter or possibly even at midseason if the Guardians fell out of contention, a Bieber trade might seem much more feasible. Waiting another season to really explore a Bieber deal would also give Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff more time to evaluate Bieber’s replacements — as always, the Guards have a wealth of young arms in the pipeline who have already made their MLB debuts, or are on the verge of debuting. Within the current rotation, Triston McKenzie also had a nice breakout in 2022 and now looks like a front-of-the-rotation starter.
Antonetti also discussed several other topics during the interview, including the Guardians’ needs behind the plate. Austin Hedges is set to hit free agency, and “catching is an area where we will continue to explore options,” the PBO said. “If we can find a way to add some offense and add a bat somewhere throughout the lineup, that’s something we’ll pursue as well.”
As much as the Guardians have been linked to the likes of Oakland’s Sean Murphy in trade rumors, it isn’t necessarily clear that Cleveland will look for an external answer at catcher. Prospect Bo Naylor had a huge season at Double-A and Triple-A in 2022, resulting in a late-season promotion and his first five big league games. The Guardians have never been shy about trusting young players in big roles, and this trend could continue given how much they like Naylor.
“We think he’s got a chance to be a really good catcher on all sides of the game,” Antonetti said. “Not only really talented offensively…he does an extraordinary job of leading the pitching staff. He’s so motivated to make an impact with the pitchers that he’s kind taken it upon himself to learn Spanish. And not just the pitches, but actually learn the language so he can build a rapport and relationships with our Spanish-speaking pitchers.”
Cardinals Acquire Jose Fermin From Guardians
The Cardinals announced Wednesday that they’ve acquired minor league infielder Jose Fermin from the Guardians in exchange for cash. Fermin has been selected to the 40-man roster in St. Louis, the team added. The Cardinals also reinstated righties Alex Reyes and Drew VerHagen from the 60-day injured list, bringing their 40-man roster to a total of 38 players.
Fermin, 24 in March, spent the 2022 season with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate and batted .215/.336/.322 with just a 13.9% strikeout rate against a 12.7% walk rate. He’s hit just 22 home runs in 415 minor league games and 1687 plate appearances, which underscores the lack of power that scouting reports on Fermin have emphasized. He stole 28 bases in just 105 games as recently as 2019, but Fermin only swiped nine bags in 90 games and 330 plate appearances in Triple-A this year.
While Fermin played plenty of shortstop early in his minor league run with Cleveland, he was deployed exclusively at second base and third base in 2022. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote prior to the 2022 season that Fermin rarely swings and misses but “lacks passable big league physicality and is a better fit at second base than shortstop.”
For the Cardinals, Fermin will give them a right-handed hitter with experience at three infield positions and solid bat-to-ball skills. Fermin would’ve been eligible to be selected in this year’s Rule 5 Draft, but St. Louis obviously saw enough in him that they preemptively made a move to acquire him and add him to the 40-man roster. This is the first time Fermin has been selected to a 40-man, so he’ll have a full slate of three minor league option years — assuming he sticks on their roster for that long, anyhow.
The moves to reinstate Reyes and VerHagen were a formality. Reyes missed the entire 2022 season due to shoulder surgery and has now managed just 145 innings in the Majors since making his debut back in 2016. He’ll be in line to earn a projected $2.8MM in arbitration this winter, and the Cardinals will likely have to weigh non-tendering the once-vaunted prospect.
VerHagen, meanwhile, missed time with shoulder and hip impingements in 2022 and didn’t pitch after being placed on the injured list on July 17. Signed to a two-year, $5.5MM deal in March — the first post-lockout, Major League free-agent signing for fans of random MLB trivia — the 32-year-old VerHagen was unable to replicate the success he’d found pitching overseas in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. In 21 2/3 innings with the Cardinals, he logged a 6.65 ERA with a 17% strikeout rate against a bloated 13.2% walk rate. He’s owed $3MM next season.
Offseason Chat Transcript: Cleveland Guardians
Click here to read the transcript of today’s Guardians-related live chat, in conjunction with our recent Offseason Outlook post about Cleveland’s possible offseason plans.
Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians
Baseball’s youngest team won the AL Central, defeated the Rays in the Wild Card Series, and came within a game of advancing to the ALCS. The future is now for the Guardians, as their new young core has already matured into a contending roster.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Ramirez, 3B: $119MM through 2028
- Myles Straw, OF: $21.75MM through 2026 (includes $1.75MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have an $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout on Straw’s 2028 season)
- Emmanuel Clase, RP: $16.5MM through 2026 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $10MM club option with $2MM buyout on Clase’s 2028 season)
Total 2023 commitments: $19.3MM
Total future commitments: $157.75MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Luke Maile (5.148): $1.3MM
- Amed Rosario (5.062): $9MM
- Shane Bieber (4.097): $10.7MM
- Anthony Gose (3.139): $800K
- Cal Quantrill (3.132): $6MM
- Josh Naylor (3.1287): $3.5MM
- Zach Plesac (3.086): $2.9MM
- Aaron Civale (3.058): $2.2MM
- James Karinchak (2.169): $1.4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Maile, Gose
Free Agents
2022 might have been the greatest triumph yet for Cleveland’s vaunted player development system. After an 80-82 record in 2021 and a pretty quiet offseason, it seemed as if the Guardians were poised to take a step back, yet it was clear that the front office had plenty of faith in its young players. A whopping 17 different Guardians players made their Major League debuts in 2022, ranging from Rookie-of-the-Year contender Steven Kwan, postseason hero Oscar Gonzalez, and rotation regular Konnor Pilkington, to top-100 prospects like Nolan Jones, Bo Naylor, and Tyler Freeman. These rookies were able to patch roster holes or even fill them outright, while a number of other pre-arb players also stepped up with big seasons.
The Guards were certainly helped by underwhelming performances by the other four AL Central teams, as well as a lot of good fortune in avoiding injuries. However, Cleveland’s recipe of strong pitching, excellent defense, speed, contact hitting, and station-to-station baseball made the club a handful for anyone. The only thing lacking was power, as the Guardians finished 29th of 30 teams in home runs (127) and 28th in Isolated Slugging (.129).
With this in mind, it isn’t quite as simple as president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti just acquiring a couple of sluggers this winter and calling it a day. For one, power costs money, and payroll is always a concern in Cleveland. Roster Resource projects the Guardians for roughly $72.2MM in committed salaries heading into 2023 (including arbitration estimates), and while the club’s spending topped $146MM as recently as 2018, that was understood even at the time to be a temporary splurge. With the pandemic impacting revenues, Cleveland’s Opening Day payroll in 2021 didn’t even top the $50MM threshold. They bounced back a bit and opened this year a bit shy of $70MM but still didn’t approach franchise-record levels.
In short, don’t expect the Guardians to suddenly become big spenders just because they’re back in contention, or just because David Blitzer became a minority owner of the franchise this past summer. But, ownership increasing payroll to even the $85MM-$90MM range would certainly help the Guards add talent — or, the front office might have to get creative with how they re-allocate that $72.2MM.
This is why Amed Rosario might find himself a trade candidate. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored, Rosario’s projected $9MM arbitration salary could be a little steep for a team that has a wealth of intriguing middle-infield prospects. The Guardians have certainly shown they’re willing to put their trust into younger players, so if they think any of Freeman, Brayan Rocchio, Gabriel Arias, or Jose Tena are ready for prime time, Rosario may become expendable.
Even in an offseason where Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson will all be hitting free agency, Rosario holds quite a bit of value as a trade chip. Many teams obviously aren’t willing to give out the nine-figure contracts it will take to sign any of those top shortstops, and would thus have more interest in Rosario even just for one year (since he is set for free agency next winter). Since Rosario could also theoretically be moved to second base, that only increases his list of potential landing spots. On paper, the Twins, Red Sox, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Mariners, Brewers, Phillies, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Marlins, White Sox, Tigers, Giants, and Orioles are all plausible fits for at least short-term middle infield help.
If Rosario was dealt, Andres Gimenez could potentially slide over to shortstop, or just continue his Gold Glove-winning reign at second base. Gimenez’s advanced metrics indicate he is likely due for some offensive regression in 2023, but he was so great last year (.297/.377/.466 with 17 homers and 20 steals over 557 plate appearances) he’d be a dangerous hitter if he even approaches his 2022 numbers.
Gimenez will have one middle-infield position locked up, so where else could the Guardians add a bat? Naturally, there isn’t any issue at third base with superstar Jose Ramirez, and the Guards also seem set with Kwan in left field and Josh Naylor at first base/DH. Naylor hit well in his first season back from major leg surgery, and the Canadian could blossom into even more of a dangerous slugger now that he is further removed from his injury.
Finding another first base/DH type to share the two positions with Naylor seems like the most obvious spot for a new hitter. The Guardians were hoping Franmil Reyes would fill this role after his 30-homer season in 2021, yet Reyes struggled so badly that Cleveland designated him for assignment in August, allowing the Cubs to claim him on waivers. A right-handed hitter would pair best with the left-handed hitting Naylor, and depending on how much the Guardians have to spend, a free agent like Jose Abreu would be a very good fit as both a productive bat and a veteran clubhouse leader. Beyond just the first base position, Trey Mancini and Mitch Haniger can also play the outfield, or the Guards could pivot to more of a DH-only type like J.D. Martinez or Nelson Cruz.
Cleveland could aim to add more pop in the outfield, though the team will have to weigh the cost of adding hitting against possibly decreasing an excellent defensive unit. Gonzalez may be the weakest link in this regard — he isn’t as accomplished a fielder as Kwan or Myles Straw and he had a very low 3.9% walk rate while benefitting from a .345 BABIP in his rookie season.
Then again, Gonzalez has more offensive upside than Straw, a Gold Glover and Fielding Bible Award-winning center fielder who was one of the game’s worst hitters in 2022. Of all qualified batters, only Jonathan Schoop had a lower wRC+ than Straw’s 64, as he hit only .221/.291/.273 over 596 PA. Straw had excellent speed and made plenty of contact, though his .261 BABIP was less a function of bad luck and more about Straw’s near-total lack of hard contact. Getting even close to league-average offense (as Straw did with his 97 wRC+ in 2021) would make him a very valuable addition to any lineup, which was the Guardians’ logic when they signed him to a five-year extension back in April.
Jones or Will Brennan are on hand for more outfield at-bats, plus George Valera is yet another top-50 prospect who’s not far from his first taste of the majors. That gives the Guardians some cover if they did float Straw or Gonzalez in trade talks, provided these players weren’t shopped for another outfielder altogether. Speculatively, Straw could be shopped to a team looking to upgrade its outfield defense, while Gonzalez is the kind of MLB-ready, controllable bat that could appeal to a lot of teams.
Speculatively, Gonzalez could fit as part of a trade package Cleveland might offer to the Athletics in exchange for Sean Murphy. The Guardians’ interest in Murphy dates back at least to the trade deadline, and while Murphy would be a great addition to many rosters, he’d be a particularly ideal match in Cleveland considering the team’s focus on defense and game-calling from the catcher position. Not only is Murphy a strong defensive backstop, he is also an accomplished hitter. He’s also controllable through the 2025 season and projected for just a $3.5MM salary next year.
Between center field and catcher, the Guardians were basically playing with only seven lineup spots, given how little Straw and the Austin Hedges/Luke Maile tandem (with a few games from Sandy Leon, Bo Naylor, and Bryan Lavastida) provided at the plate in 2022. Since Hedges is a free agent and Maile is a non-tender candidate, the catching position represents the cleanest way for the Guards to simply add a better hitter to the mix. Plus, the younger Naylor brother is an interesting prospect in his own right, so Cleveland might feel it already has an in-house offensive upgrade.
If the Guardians do trust Naylor, they could roll with a Naylor/Maile platoon in 2023, or even re-sign Hedges for platoon duty and either let Maile go or try to retain him on a new minor league contract. This might be Cleveland’s strategy if other bats were acquired at, say, DH or right field, as the Guards might then feel more comfortable about sticking with defense behind the plate and hoping Naylor could become the latest breakout rookie.
Murphy isn’t the only external option, of course, even though quality bats are rather scarce at the catcher position. Free agent Willson Contreras will be too expensive, though Christian Vazquez might conceivably fall within their price range. On the trade front, the A’s and Blue Jays are the top options for available catchers, and the Guardians have enough interesting players in both the farm system and on the MLB roster to perhaps outbid many other catcher-needy teams.
The Guardians could also conceivably trade from their rotation depth, with Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac perhaps expendable at the back of the rotation given how Cleveland has a number of young arms ready to start banking Major League innings. With an eye towards arbitration costs, it wouldn’t be a shock if one of Cal Quantrill (projected $6MM) or Shane Bieber ($10.7MM) were dealt, though those two are more trusted members of the starting five.
Bieber, naturally, has been included in a lot of trade speculation as his price tag continues to rise. However, since he is still controlled through the 2024 season, he probably won’t be shopped until the 2023 trade deadline at the absolute earliest, and that would likely only happen if the Guardians fell out of the playoff race. Pilkington, Cody Morris, Peyton Battenfield, Xzavion Curry, and top prospect Daniel Espino are among the many young starters who could be rotation options for 2023, yet using those youngsters to replace Bieber’s ace-level production is a taller order than replacing the more modest contributions of Civale or Plesac.
Cleveland’s ability to find and develop pitching provides the team with some rare flexibility in deciding whether or not to trade from its surplus, and it is possible the Guardians might just stand pat this winter, at least in terms of any major deals. As noted, the Guards enjoyed quite a bit of good health in 2022, so they might want to retain their pitching depth as protection against the injury bug returning with a vengeance.
This depth filters down to the bullpen, as the Guardians could reinforce their already-strong relief corps with some of these pitchers coming up from the minors. Headlined by star closer Emmanuel Clase, the Cleveland bullpen was one of baseball’s best last season, and not a lot of tinkering might need to be done. Though the relievers gained some valuable experience in both the regular season and during the playoffs, it’s still a young bullpen that could do with a veteran arm, similar to the role that Bryan Shaw filled in 2022. Though Shaw had a disappointing year and was outrighted off the 40-man roster at the end of the season, the Guards might still pursue a reunion on a minor league contract, given the respect he’s earned as a clubhouse leader to his younger teammates.
Speaking of leadership, it has already been confirmed Terry Francona will be returning for at least one more season as Cleveland’s manager. Physical problems kept Francona away from the team for big portions of both the 2020 and 2021 seasons, yet the veteran skipper returned to guide his young roster to the ninth winning season of his decade-long run in Cleveland.
With Francona’s health issues potentially heralding the end of his time in the dugout at some point in the not too distant future, he would surely love to capture one more World Series ring (and break another franchise’s title drought) before calling it a career. The fact that a championship is now a plausible goal is a sign of how well the team has reloaded in just a year’s time, though the Guards will also have to caution against growing pains for their many rookies. Some canny offseason additions can help protect against any sophomore slumps, and if enough youngsters continue to develop and Ramirez continues to deliver MVP-level production, the Guardians look like they’ll be dangerous again in 2023.
The Opener: Guardians, Rays, Yankees
Welcome to The Opener, our new weekday morning series here at MLBTR! Nick Deeds will take you through three things to watch around MLB, with our typical hot stove leaning.
With Game 3 of the World Series in the rear-view mirror, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world:
1. Guardians Dominate Gold Glove Award Results
This year’s Gold Glove award winners were announced yesterday, with a remarkable amount of first time winners. Also remarkable is the way Cleveland dominated the AL; while no other team took home more than two Gold Gloves, the Guardians brought in a whopping four: Shane Bieber at pitcher, Andres Gimenez at second base, Steven Kwan in left field, and Myles Straw in center field. All four of the team’s Gold Glove recipients are under team control for multiple seasons, with Bieber set to hit free agency after 2024, Gimenez after 2027 and both Straw and Kwan under team control through the end of the 2028 season. These gold glove awards not only serve as a reminder of the successful season the Guardians had, but of the incredible youth of the roster, and the team control that comes with that youth.
2. The Rays Face Tough Decisions In Arbitration
Yesterday’s announcement of this year’s Super-Two cutoff prompts a re-examination of the coming arbitration class. The Rays have 19 players up for arbitration this offseason, the most in the majors. Matt Swartz projects Tampa to have to pay out over $42MM to retain all of their arbitration eligible players, it seems all but guaranteed that the Rays will have some tough decisions to make in terms of who to keep, who to trade, and who to non-tender. First baseman Ji-Man Choi, left-hander Ryan Yarbrough and catcher Francisco Mejia highlight the list of Rays in this arbitration class who may change uniforms this offseason as Tampa’s front office looks to optimize their limited financial resources.
3. Yankees To Explore Trade Market
The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner noted in a mailbag yesterday that the Yankees “simply have to try” trading third baseman Josh Donaldson and outfielder Aaron Hicks this offseason, citing both roster flexibility and payroll concerns. Hicks and Donaldson are set to cost the Yankees a combined $32MM this offseason, money a team focused on attempting to retain likely AL MVP Aaron Judge while simultaneously improving other areas of the roster would surely like to use elsewhere. Neither player can be expected to bring much of significance back to New York in trade, however. Donaldson is coming off a down season that saw him post a below average OPS+ for the first time since establishing himself as a full time player in 2013, and will play next season at age 37. Hicks, meanwhile, slashed just .216/.330/.313 in his first full season of games since 2018. While he’s younger than Donaldson, he still celebrated his 33rd birthday last month. Kirschner speculates that Hicks could bring back a “mid- to low-level” prospect, but the more likely scenario is that the Yankees would have to engage in some sort of bad contract swap or attach a mid- to low-level prospect of their own to move these aging, expensive batters.
MLB Announces 2022 Gold Glove Winners
Major League Baseball announced the 2022 Gold Glove award winners this evening. This season was the first in which the league added a “utility” award to honor multi-positional players, in addition to the standard nine positions in each league. There are 20 winners overall, 14 of whom received a Gold Glove for the first time. Only two players who won last year claimed the award yet again.
Five teams had multiple winners, with the AL Central-winning Guardians leading the pack with four honorees. Cleveland ranked fourth in the majors (third in the American League) in turning balls in play into outs, with opponents managing a .274 batting average on balls in play against them. That excellent defensive group was an underrated part of the quality run prevention unit that helped Cleveland to a surprising playoff berth.
Here are the full list of winners:
American League
Pitcher: Shane Bieber (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: José Berríos (Blue Jays), Jameson Taillon (Yankees)
Catcher: Jose Trevino (Yankees), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Sean Murphy (Athletics), Cal Raleigh (Mariners)
First Base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Luis Arraez (Twins), Anthony Rizzo (Yankees)
Second Base: Andrés Giménez (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Jonathan Schoop (Tigers), Marcus Semien (Rangers)
Third Base: Ramón Urías (Orioles), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Matt Chapman (Blue Jays), José Ramírez (Guardians)
Shortstop: Jeremy Peña (Astros), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Xander Bogaerts (Red Sox), Carlos Correa (Twins)
Left Field: Steven Kwan (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Andrew Benintendi (Royals/Yankees), Brandon Marsh (Angels/Phillies)
Center Field: Myles Straw (Guardians), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Cedric Mullins (Orioles), Michael A. Taylor (Royals)
Right Field: Kyle Tucker (Astros), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox/Blue Jays), Max Kepler (Twins)
Utility: DJ LeMahieu (Yankees), 4th career selection
Other finalists: Whit Merrifield (Royals/Blue Jays), Luis Rengifo (Angels)
National League
Pitcher: Max Fried (Braves), 3rd career selection/3rd consecutive win
Other finalists: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Corbin Burnes (Brewers)
Catcher: J.T. Realmuto (Phillies), 2nd career selection
Other finalists: Travis d’Arnaud (Braves), Tomás Nido (Mets)
First Base: Christian Walker (Diamondbacks), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Paul Goldschmidt (Cardinals), Matt Olson (Braves)
Second Base: Brendan Rodgers (Rockies), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Jake Cronenworth (Padres), Tommy Edman (Cardinals)
Third Base: Nolan Arenado (Cardinals), 10th career selection/10th consecutive win
Other finalists: Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates), Ryan McMahon (Rockies)
Shortstop: Dansby Swanson (Braves), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Ha-Seong Kim (Padres), Miguel Rojas (Marlins)
Left Field: Ian Happ (Cubs), 1st career selection
Other finalists: David Peralta (Diamondbacks/Rays), Christian Yelich (Brewers)
Center Field: Trent Grisham (Padres), 2nd career selection
Other finalists: Víctor Robles (Nationals), Alek Thomas (Diamondbacks)
Right Field: Mookie Betts (Dodgers), 6th career selection
Other finalists: Juan Soto (Nationals/Padres), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)
Utility: Brendan Donovan (Cardinals), 1st career selection
Other finalists: Tommy Edman (Cardinals), Daulton Varsho (Diamondbacks)
Trade Candidates: Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale
For the better part of the last decade, the Guardians have been as good as any team in baseball at identifying and developing young pitchers, which has kept the rotation strong despite several notable departures. Due to Cleveland’s limited payroll, the pattern has been pretty simple — the Guards trade away a prominent name (i.e. Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger) when he gets too expensive, and then the club replaces that starter with a fresh face from the farm system, or perhaps a pitcher acquired in the trade. More often than not, that new hurler then becomes a quality arm in his own right, until his price tag also starts to rise and the pattern then repeats itself.
Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale are different kinds of possible trade candidates, as their status isn’t tied to their salaries. Both pitchers have just reached arbitration eligibility, with Plesac projected for a $2.9MM salary and Civale for $2.2MM in 2023. These modest starting points mean that even if Plesac or Civale have a pair of excellent seasons in 2023 and 2024, their salaries over his three remaining years of team control should still be manageable even for a cost-conscious organization like the Guardians.
On paper, these are the kinds of pitchers the Guards would seemingly want to hang onto as rotation depth, given their arb control and the decent track records that both hurlers have posted over their four MLB seasons. The two even have rather similar career numbers, though Plesac has 445 1/3 innings pitched to Civale’s 353 frames. However, the Guardians are one of the few teams who might have starting pitching depth to spare, and with Plesac and Civale sitting at the back of the rotation, at least one might be expendable enough to move for other roster needs.
Which is the more expendable of the duo? As noted, their resumes bear a lot of similarities, plus both right-handers are 27 years old (Plesac is about five months older). The innings gap is perhaps the most notable difference, and though Civale has been the less durable of the two, he might have the more upside.
Civale had a 60-day injured list stint in 2021 due to a sprained middle finger on his right hand. This limited him to 124 1/3 innings, and that number then dropped to 97 innings last year due to three separate 15-day IL visits. A wrist sprain, glute strain, and forearm inflammation all kept Civale off the mound, and the bigger-picture concern of the forearm problem dissipated when Civale was able to return after only a minimal absence. These injuries contributed to a 4.92 ERA for Civale, even if his 3.55 SIERA presented a much more favorable view of his performance.
Civale had an excellent 5.4% walk rate, and above-average strikeout and chase rates. With a fastball that averaged only 91.2mph, Civale relied on his curveball and sinker, and his spin rates (on his heater and his curve) were among the best in baseball. Unfortunately, Civale was hit hard in his lone postseason appearance, allowing three runs while only retiring one batter as the Game 5 starter in the ALDS. This put Cleveland in an early hole that it couldn’t escape, as the Yankees eliminated the Guards from the playoffs.
Plesac posted a 4.31 ERA/4.46 SIERA over 131 2/3 innings in 2022, with an above-average 6.7% walk rate but not much else in the way of secondary metrics. The right-hander also isn’t a particularly hard thrower and he doesn’t miss many bats (18.7% career strikeout rate). In fact, Plesac has posted some of the lower strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball over the last two seasons, also sitting near the back of the pack in barrels, barrel rate, and hard-hit ball rate overall. With a career .265 BABIP, Plesac has gotten some help from the Guardians’ strong defense in limiting the damage from all that hard contact.
While Plesac has been healthier than Civale, Plesac has also spent some time on the IL over the last two seasons, which brings us to the other X-factor in this discussion of trade candidates. Only those inside the Guardians clubhouse and front office would know the truth of the matter, but there have been some rumblings that Plesac may have worn out his welcome in Cleveland due to concerns about his maturity level.
On the injury front, Plesac didn’t pitch in September of this season due to a fractured pinkie finger in his throwing hand, as Plesac reportedly hurt himself punching the mound in anger over allowing a homer to Seattle’s Jake Lamb on August 27. He also missed a little over six weeks in 2021 due to a right thumb fracture, which occurred while Plesac was “rather aggressively taking off his undershirt,” in the memorable words of manager Terry Francona. This made it two temper-related injuries in as many years for Plesac, and that followed his most well-publicized controversy during the shortened 2020 season.
In August of that year, Plesac and Clevinger violated league COVID-19 protocols by leaving the team hotel for a night out in Chicago. The two pitchers were subsequently placed on the team’s restricted list and then sent to the alternate training site that was served as a de facto minor league camp during the pandemic season. Plesac was eventually recalled back to the big league roster at the end of August, while the situation was one of the factors in Cleveland’s decision to deal Clevinger to San Diego.
The pitchers’ actions were very poorly received within the clubhouse, as multiple teammates were angered both by their lack of honesty about their actions as well as the health risk created by the protocol violation. As well, Plesac attempted to defend himself in an Instagram video by claiming the media had overblown the situation, and that ill-advised video also didn’t sit well with teammates.
This incident occurred over two years ago, and to reiterate, it isn’t known if any hard feelings still exist towards Plesac within the Guardians clubhouse. It may help Plesac that many members of that 2020 roster are no longer with the team, and he is now actually one of the longer-tenured players on a very young Cleveland team. Still, if weighing which of Civale or Plesac to move in a trade, this past situation might still be a consideration in the front office’s mind.
Prior to the trade deadline, reports suggested that the Guards were open to offers for controllable pitchers, at least as a matter of due diligence. This immediately sparked a plethora of Shane Bieber rumors, but it doesn’t really seem like a Bieber deal is on Cleveland’s radar in the near future (Steve Adams recently addressed the possibility of a Bieber deal in a piece for MLBTR subscribers). Triston McKenzie had a breakout year and is controlled through 2026, and Cal Quantrill is another 27-year-old pitcher in his first year of arb-eligibility. While Quantrill’s projected $6MM salary is significantly higher than Plesac or Civale, Quantrill has also done more to establish himself as a reliable arm. Cleveland turned to Quantrill for two postseason starts, while Civale and Plesac were both somewhat reduced to afterthought status in the playoffs.
Konnor Pilkington made 11 starts for the Guardians last season, and Hunter Gaddis, Xzavion Curry, and Cody Morris were among the other young starters who made their Major League debuts last season. Daniel Espino is one of baseball’s top pitching prospects and seems ready to make his debut at some point in 2023. Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams are also top-100 prospects who could be late-season callups, and there are other pitchers within Cleveland’s upper tier of arms that might factor into their 2023 plans. There is enough depth and potential here that the Guards might feel like they can readily replace Civale’s 1.3 fWAR or Plesac’s 0.9 fWAR from the 2022 season.
That said, quite a few teams would happily take Civale or Plesac’s contributions in their rotations. Either pitcher could be seen as a change-of-scenery or even a buy-low candidate, though the three seasons of arbitration control would still allow Cleveland to ask for an interesting return. The Phillies reportedly checked in on Plesac in July, and purely speculatively, Civale or Plesac might have particular appeal to ex-Cleveland staffers now working for other teams. Former Guardians assistant GM Carter Hawkins might want to reunite with either pitcher now that Hawkins is the Cubs’ general manager, or former Cleveland assistant director of pitching development Matt Blake might feel he can get either right-hander on track in his current role as the Yankees’ pitching coach.
As always, the “you can never have too much pitching” credo must be mentioned, as the Guardians aren’t under any real pressure to move any of their arms. A strong rotation is such a backbone of the Guards’ team, in fact, that they might even be a little less willing to deal from their surplus just in case the younger pitchers aren’t ready to contribute to a contending team. Still, teams in need of pitching will unquestionably be sending a lot of offers in Cleveland’s direction, and Civale and Plesac might be the two most logical names to be dangled.
The Guardians Have Some Middle Infield Decisions To Make
Two months ago, I wrote about Andres Gimenez‘s 2022 breakout and how it was a critical factor in propelling the Guardians toward what would eventually be their first division title since 2018. Gimenez finished strong following that Aug. 30 writing, going on to bat .282/.387/.385 in his final 137 plate appearances.
For the season on the whole, Gimenez batted .297/.371/.466 with 17 home runs, 26 doubles, three triples and 20 steals — pairing that all-around offensive value with some of the game’s best defense at second base. Even if you expect some regression based on this year’s .353 average on balls in play — Statcast pegged him with an “expected” .257 batting average, based on the quality and frequency of his contact — Gimenez still looks like a strong defensive infielder with quality on-base percentages, some power and plenty of speed.
The excellence of Gimenez’s season goes a long way toward justifying the organization’s trade of Francisco Lindor, at least from a pure roster standpoint. Lindor was terrific in his second season with the Mets, but Guardians ownership was never going to give Lindor the type of contract he received in Queens, and Gimenez showed that he can be a building block himself. With four years of club control remaining, he could be — or at least should be — an offseason extension candidate.
Of course, Gimenez alone was not the sole return for Lindor. Also acquired in that swap was another longtime top infield prospect of the Mets: Amed Rosario (plus outfielder Isaiah Greene and right-hander Josh Wolf). Soon to turn 27, Rosario perhaps hasn’t lived up to the sky-high expectations set when he was ranked among the top five to ten prospects in all of baseball, but he’s settled in as a solid option for the Guardians at shortstop. He hit .283/.312/.403 in 670 plate appearances this season, bringing his collective output in two seasons with Cleveland to .282/.316/.406. By most metrics, this was also his best defensive season (though Statcast disagreed, grading him at seven outs below average).
Unlike Gimenez, however, Rosario’s contract status isn’t quite so favorable. Despite his youth, Rosario debuted with the Mets way back in 2017 and spent three full seasons as a regular with them. As such, he came to the Guardians with “only” three seasons of club control remaining. He’s now coming up on the third and final of those three seasons.
Rosario not only has just one season of club control remaining — he has one relatively expensive season of control remaining. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $9MM salary for Rosario next year in his final season before free agency. For a solid everyday shortstop with at least an average bat, that’s a reasonable price to pay. Rosario hit 11 home runs, stole 20 bases, knocked 26 doubles and paced the Majors with nine triples. Baseball-Reference’s version of wins above replacement (which uses Defensive Runs Saved as the primary defensive component) pegged him at 4.1 WAR. FanGraphs’ version (which uses Ultimate Zone Rating and Statcast’s OAA) pegged him at 2.3 WAR. Any way you slice it, Rosario looks like a good value at that rough price point.
Then again, that’s simply looking at the situation in a vacuum — which few front offices have the luxury of doing. That $9MM figure would’ve represented about 13% of the Guardians’ Opening Day payroll from the 2022 season. Cleveland only has a combined $18MM in guarantees on next year’s books, but their arbitration class could tack another $37MM or so onto the ledger. Add in another 15 pre-arbitration players at or around next year’s $720K league minimum, and the Guardians are right back to the $68-69MM mark at which they opened this past season — before making a single addition.
Granted, the strength of Cleveland’s young players is a large reason they defied expectations and won the AL Central in 2022, and it’s justifiable to suggest that they could effectively run out nearly the same group again in 2023 and be competitive. Doing so, however, would rely on replicating this year’s uncanny level of health; the Guardians had by far the fewest IL days of any team in baseball. There’s also the simple fact that even with a roster good enough to take the division, the Guards fell in the ALDS. The very fact that they had a postseason run at all could provide some extra revenues and boost payroll in 2023, but the extent to which that might be true isn’t clear at this juncture.
Beyond the payroll implications is the simple fact that Cleveland is rife with middle-infield options and could look to fill Rosario’s role internally while reallocating that salary to other areas of need. Gimenez rose through the minors as a shortstop and has thrived there in limited Major League work, posting six Defensive Runs Saved, five Outs Above Average and a 2.3 Ultimate Zone Rating in just 452 innings. There’s good reason to believe that he could slide to the other side of the bag and not only handle the position but even improve Cleveland’s infield defense.
Looking beyond Gimenez and Rosario, Tyler Freeman and Gabriel Arias both made their MLB debuts in 2022 and have been considered among the organization’s best prospects for the past couple seasons. Neither hit much in the Majors, and Arias struggled in Triple-A as well, but both are young and at least on the cusp of MLB readiness. Freeman, who fanned in just 9.3% of his Triple-A plate appearances, seems to fit a brand of Cleveland baseball that particularly emphasizes bat-to-ball skills.
Elsewhere in the minors, the Guardians have touted 21-year-old Brayan Rocchio, though he has just 33 games in Triple-A under his belt and struggled at the plate as one of the younger players in that league. Jose Tena gives Cleveland yet another 21-year-old middle infield option who’s already reached Triple-A; he’s not as highly touted as Rocchio but did bat .267/.306/.419 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2022.
Depending on which of the in-house middle infield prospects forces his way onto the big league roster first, Cleveland could deploy Gimenez at either middle infield spot. Freeman, for instance, has played plenty of shortstop but is generally regarded as a future second baseman. Rocchio and Arias, meanwhile, have drawn plus grades for his glovework at shortstop in scouting reports — as did Gimenez during his prospect days. The logjam of talented, young, up-the-middle defenders is hardly a true “problem” for the Guardians, though, and Gimenez’s ability at either spot gives the team the luxury of letting the situation play itself out in Spring Training and early next season.
Suffice it to say, there are plenty of options for Cleveland in the middle infield if they look to move Rosario and spend the roughly $9MM or so he’d command in another manner, be it in the outfield, behind the plate or to deepen an already excellent pitching staff. The question facing the front office this winter is whether it’s prudent to spend more than 10% of the 2023 budget on Rosario when the organization is flush with talented middle-infield options who could play a key big league role for the league minimum.
There’s certainly an alternative scenario where they keep Rosario and trade some middle-infield talent to bolster another position on the roster, so Rosario shouldn’t necessarily be viewed as a sheer lock to be traded. That said, history tells us the Cleveland organization will be plenty comfortable listening to offers on him this offseason. And, given the number of teams that are on the lookout for middle infield help every offseason — and the number of teams for which that projected $9MM salary wouldn’t be nearly so cumbersome — it’s easy enough to connect the dots and see that a trade is at the very least quite plausible.
AL Central Notes: Maddon, White Sox, Hedges, Guardians, Twins
As the White Sox continue to hunt for a new manager, one prominent name yet to be involved in the mix is Joe Maddon. The former Rays/Cubs/Angels skipper told the Cubs Talk podcast (on NBC Sports Chicago, hat tip to Tim Stebbins) that “I’ve not heard from [the White Sox] at all,” though Maddon would “of course…be interested” in chatting with the team. Maddon has yet to be publicly linked to any of the open managerial vacancies this winter, though he has remained in the news due to a publicity tour for his upcoming book.
For a White Sox team that is reportedly hoping to replace Tony La Russa with another experienced manager, Maddon would seem like an intriguing candidate on paper, given both his long and successful track record and his past Chicago ties. However, of the four candidates linked thus far to the Sox job, two (Ron Washington and Ozzie Guillen) have past experience managing in the majors, while the other two (Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol and Astros bench coach Joe Espada) would be first-time skippers at the MLB level.
More from around the AL Central…
- There is mutual interest between the Guardians and Austin Hedges in a reunion, Guards president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told The Cleveland Plain Dealer’s Paul Hoynes and other reporters. Hedges is slated for free agency this winter, and was again one of the game’s stronger defensive catchers. For a Guardians team that has prioritized glovework and game-calling behind the plate, this has been enough to ensure regular playing time for Hedges, despite his lack of production as a hitter. Hedges has hit only .189/.247/.331 over 2001 career plate appearances with San Diego and Cleveland — his 54 wRC+ is the lowest of any player in baseball (minimum 2000 PA) since the start of the 2015 season. The Guardians have prospect Bo Naylor knocking on the door and another veteran catcher in Luke Maile until arbitration control, though Maile is a non-tender candidate. Hedges’ price tag shouldn’t be too prohibitive, which could allow Cleveland to create some competition in Spring Training and perhaps make Maile the odd man out even if he was tendered a contract.
- The Twins are looking for a new head trainer this offseason, once again looking to fill a position that has been a revolving door for the organization. As La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune points out, the Twins have already had three head trainers since 2016, and there has been plenty of other personnel turnover in the strength and conditioning departments. While it’s common for teams to regularly undergo some staffing changes, the lack of consistency stands out in regards to the Twins, given that they were buried by injuries throughout the season.