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Quick Hits: Harper, Donaldson, Wong

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In a piece for the Sports Info Solutions blog, Mark Simon digs deep to try and find an explanation for Bryce Harper’s poor defensive ratings; he’s cost the Nationals 25 runs with his performance in the field, per Defensive Runs Saved. Simon notes that Harper ranks second-worst among all MLB position players in that metric, having played well below average both in right and center field. Simon objectively examines the categories in which the All-Star slugger has performed below his historical norms, such as range rating, deterrent value from his throwing arm, and the routes he’s taken to fly balls. Of course, defensive statistics are widely thought of as more subjective than most offensive stats, so it remains to be seen just how much any of these numbers will actually impact Harper’s value on the free agent market this offseason. As Simon notes, he’s certainly quelled mid-season concerns about his offensive capabilities by tattooing baseballs to the tune of a 1.004 OPS since the All-Star break. It will be interesting to see how Harper’s suitors factor his defensive performance into their offers over the course of the winter.

And now a pair of notes related to infielders…

  • Jordan Bastian of MLB.com provides the highlights from a recent press Q&A with Josh Donaldson. Among the most interesting parts of the interview is Donaldson’s credit to NFL wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald for referring soft-tissue expert Dr. Josh Sandell to him. The third baseman also noted that he made some dietary changes during his recovery from injury, and discussed how he feels hitting-wise. “I’ve felt better,” said Donaldson. “I haven’t had much of the results to look for, but I feel like I’ve hit some balls hard. As long as my approach and how I’m seeing the ball — my pitch recognition — is up to par, and I’m hitting the ball solid, there’s not much more I can ask for from that.” The “Bringer of Rain” owns a .811 OPS in a small sample with the Indians as he attempts to help his new club get back to the World Series, all while making his bid for a big free agent payday.
  • Though Cardinals infielder Kolten Wong left Friday’s game early due to cramping, Joe Trezza of MLB.com tweets that he’ll likely be available off the bench today, per manager Mike Shildt. Shildt is reportedly “very hopeful” that Wong can return to the starting lineup tomorrow. That’s in line with good news about the situation coming out of the Cardinals’ camp- the club believes that the cramping was due to dehydration, not a hamstring strain. Wong’s in the midst of the best season of his career by fWAR, having reached base in a third of his plate appearances while playing excellent defense in 869 2/3 innings at the keystone for St. Louis.

 

Latest On Josh Donaldson

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Josh Donaldson’s difficult season and recent trade have prompted plenty of looks in the rearview mirror to imagine what might have been. Now with the Indians for the tail end of an injury-plagued year, the veteran third bagger could instead have inked a long-term deal to stay in Toronto or been shipped elsewhere.

Multiple organizations reputedly sought to acquire Donaldson from the Blue Jays before the start of the season. Reports at the time pegged the Cardinals as a major pursuer, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today now reports on Twitter that the club was indeed serious about landing Donaldson. While he had only one year of contract control remaining, and a hefty $23MM salary, the St. Louis organization was evidently not shy about giving up significant talent to make a deal.

Indeed, per the report, the Cards offered up a two-player package that included young righty Jack Flaherty — the same hurler who might well be cruising to a National League Rookie-of-the-Year award were it not for the brilliance of two historic young hitters. Flaherty’s ongoing ability to suppress base hits — he’s allowing only a .248 BABIP — may reasonably be questioned. But his 132 1/3-inning showing (to this point) has been amply impressive even if it comes with some batted-ball fortune.

Unquestionably, the Jays would take a do-over on their decision not to accept that offer. But that’s based as much or more on the ensuing injuries to Donaldson as it is Flahrty’s emergence. And if we’re going to consider what-if’s, there’s another entire scenario that also could have occurred. In this case, the outcomes favor the Toronto ballclub.

It has long been known that the Blue Jays explored the possibility of an extension with Donaldson in advance of the 2018 season. Details, though, have not only been slow to emerge, but have come with no small amount of controversy.

Today, Jon Heyman of Fancred fired the latest shot in an ongoing back-and-forth with Donaldson’s agents regarding pre-2018 extension talks with the Blue Jays. Heyman argues that “the Jays and the Donaldson camp knew exactly where they stood” in terms of contract price last spring, citing some of the player’s own comments to support his reporting. And, he insists, the Blue Jays made clear they’d be willing to pay something at or over the three-year, $75MM level to make a deal, if not a bit more.

In Heyman’s telling, the Donaldson camp found that level insufficient — which, as Heyman notes, would certainly have been a fair position to take given Donaldson’s outstanding level of play in the preceding campaigns. The recently stated position of agent Dan Lozano, however, is that “the team never extended an offer” and that “no years or dollars were ever specifically discussed.”

Those interested in the topic will want to read all the materials and reach their own conclusions. Broadly, the post mortem on the end of Donaldson’s tenure in Toronto is interesting for a variety of reasons. But it’s clearly also not a subject that necessarily needs to feature winners and losers. Certainly, there was no known reason to think that Donaldson was headed for such a calamitous season — either for the Blue Jays or the player’s reps. Historians may debate the facts, but they won’t likely dispute that the player was warranted in seeking a massive payday and that the club was justified in demanding a big return via trade.

In any event, for the Indians the focus now is solely on what Donaldson can do on the field. He broke through with a home run today, a promising sign for the club as it seeks to get him up to full speed in advance of the postseason. When the season ends, the veteran will be able to choose his next uniform for himself.

Indians To Activate Josh Donaldson

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The Indians announced their plans regarding recently acquired third baseman Josh Donaldson today, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian was among those to cover (Twitter link). He’ll return to the active roster tomorrow and make his debut with his new new organization.

Donaldson, of course, has missed much of the season and only began a rehab assignment for a calf injury in late August. The Indians nevertheless struck a deal to acquire him from the Blue Jays just before the deadline to add postseason-eligible players from outside the organization. Shortly thereafter, he returned to the DL for some additional rehab work, a delicate dance that had some other organizations expressing skepticism.

The 32-year-old Donaldson is a pure rental piece for the Cleveland organization, which has already stamped its ticket to the postseason as a practical matter. In other words, the entirety of the transaction was about getting Donaldson up to full speed by the time the calendar flips to October.

As it turns out, the veteran third baseman with have an 18-game stretch of major-league playing time before he’s tasked with performing under the game’s brightest lights. The immediate plan is to put him in the lineup on Tuesday and then give him a bench spot the next game before bringing him back to the starting lineup on Friday. How things go from there remains to be seen.

Unsurprisingly, the Indians also say they’ll use Donaldson at his accustomed hot corner. That means that star Jose Ramirez will move to second base, bumping Jason Kipnis into the center field mix. The expectation, per Francona, is that this will be a permanent positional shift (at least, that is, for the remainder of the season).

It all seems to be lining up nicely for the Indians, who may well have added a superstar-level performer to their lineup at a relative pittance of a price. Of course, that assumes that the fiery veteran is able not only to stay healthy but also to return to his once-lofty performance levels, which had trended down somewhat earlier in the year. He has certainly given every sign of life possible in his brief minor-league action. In 15 rehab plate appearances, Donaldson is hitting a cool .417/.533/.917 with two dingers, three walks, and nary a strikeout.

In other news out of Cleveland, righty Trevor Bauer — another key rehabbing player — may be ready to throw a bullpen session on Wednesday. (Also via Bastian, on Twitter.) That could put him on track to be ready to go by the time the postseason gets underway, in a relief role at least, but it’s still a tight window.

Indians Activate Andrew Miller

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Sept. 10: The Indians announced that Miller has indeed been activated from the disabled list.

Sept. 9: The Indians are planning to activate left-hander Andrew Miller from the 10-day DL on Monday, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports (Twitter link).  This would make it slightly beyond a minimum stint for Miller, who originally hit the DL on August 29 due to an external impingement in his throwing shoulder.

Of course, this is also Miller’s third trip to the disabled list this season, as the southpaw has been limited to just 27 appearances (24 innings) due to previous absences dealing with hamstring and knee problems.  The knee inflammation was a particularly large issue, costing Miller over two months of the season.  It’s safe to say that these injury problems are a reason behind Miller’s numbers, as the reliever hasn’t quite been his usual dominant self, though most pitchers would be more than satisfied with a 3.38 ERA, 2.54 K/BB rate, and 12.4 K/BB.

A fully healthy and in-form Miller, however, is arguably the most dominant bullpen weapon in all of baseball, particularly given his ability to pitch multiple innings.  As the 2016 playoffs demonstrated, Miller can be an enormous force in a postseason series, so his return will be a huge boost to a Cleveland team that has been lacking in bullpen consistency all season.  (Though the Tribe’s relief numbers have improved lately, thanks to Oliver Perez’s continued late-career resurgence, and the acquisition of Brad Hand.)  A strong showing over the season’s last few weeks and into October would also go a long way to rebuilding Miller’s free agent value, as the 33-year-old hits the open market this winter.

Poll: Grading the Josh Donaldson Trade

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Perhaps the most significant trade that took place on the day of the August postseason eligibility trade deadline was the one that sent Josh Donaldson to the Indians. The former AL MVP has endured an injury-plagued season owing to his shoulder and calf, but made it back to the field on a rehab assignment just in time to be put through trade waivers and ultimately sent to Cleveland in exchange for salary relief and a player to be named later.

At the beginning of the 2018 season, it would have seemed unfathomable that the Jays would get so little value as a result of Donaldson’s departure. Few expected them to seriously contend amidst a division that features the Red Sox and Yankees, but if they had been competitive enough to keep Donaldson through season’s end, most would have bet heavily on an outcome in which he’d receive and reject a qualifying offer. That would have netted the Jays a first-round pick had he signed for $50MM or more elsewhere, a scenario that the majority of baseball enthusiasts also would have put money on. And certainly if you’d have told a pundit back in March that Toronto would fall out of competition by late July, they’d have been wondering which team gave up a top prospect in order to acquire him ahead of the non-waiver trade deadline.

The actual outcome was an awful bout of bad fortune for both Donaldson and the Jays, of course. He only stayed on the field enough to accrue 159 plate appearances, and his performance was inconsistent with his track record. Most readers of MLBTR will by now recognize .234/.333/.423 as Donaldson’s batting line so far in 2018, a far cry from the numbers he’d previously put up over the course of his tenure in Canada.

In no small part due to those factors, the receipt of a qualifying offer that once seemed a foregone conclusion for the 33-year-old became a decision clouded with doubt across the industry. The club certainly faced serious risk had they kept the slugger. A full return to form would have made it worth issuing him a one-year contract approaching $20MM, but a poor or even average performance would have forced the Blue Jays with a difficult choice: let their star third baseman walk for nothing or make him an exorbitant offer and thereby risk both a payroll albatross and 2019 roster crunch involving Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Evidently, the Jays decided that the Tribe’s offer to pay $1.3MM of his remaining salary and fork over a young player presented a better alternative to taking such a risk. Reportedly, they’ll receive right-hander Julian Merryweather, who ranked as the club’s 15th-best prospect headed into the season prior to undergoing Tommy John surgery. One could certainly argue that Merryweather holds more upside and less risk than a late-first-round pick in next year’s draft, but his recent injury would make that a tough sell.

For that reason, some fans and reporters have chided the Jays for “giving Donaldson away”. That’s not literally the case, as anyone who wanted the three-time All-Star could have simply claimed him on waivers; all 29 rival teams opted to pass on that front). Still, one could look at the scenario as Toronto paying the Indians over $2MM to take Donaldson off their hands (though they’d have to assume that Merryweather has no value).

On the other hand, it’s perhaps a positive thing that the Jays were able to get Donaldson back on the field in time to reap any value at all from him. Though he’s absolutely raked during his rehab assignment in Cleveland, Toronto could have very easily watched Donaldson re-injure himself and thus been criticized by some fans for keeping him through September.

What do you think? How do you rate this trade from the Blue Jays’ perspective? (Poll link for app users)

AL Rivals Have Questions About Donaldson Trade

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  • Several teams, including contenders in the American League, contacted the league office in regards to the Josh Donaldson trade “either to express their dismay with the circumstances of the deal or seek clarification on why baseball allowed it,” The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required).  The particular issue was Donaldson’s uncertain health status and the timing of his activation from the disabled list as a Blue Jay and his latest DL placement after joining the Indians, without any return to the field in between.  Prior to the deal, teams interested in Donaldson were issued a “buyer beware” warning by the league about his possible injured status, which stemmed from concerns Donaldson himself had about his bothersome calf, which he expressed to the MLBPA (via his agent).  After the union passed these concerns onto the league, Rosenthal reports that MLBPA officials also wondered how the trade was completed.  Donaldson’s worries, however, were alleviated after speaking to the Tribe on August 31, as Cleveland was given permission by the league to speak to the player once the general framework of the trade had been settled.

Indians Could Activate Josh Donaldson On Tuesday

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Injured third baseman Josh Donaldson appears to be closing in on his Cleveland debut. If all goes well for Donaldson over the next few days, expectations are that the Indians will activate him from the 10-day disabled list on Tuesday, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com reports. In the meantime, the plan is for Donaldson to play third at the Double-A level on Saturday and then go through a workout prior to the Indians’ series in Tampa Bay, which begins Monday.

Not only has a calf strain kept Donaldson off a major league diamond since May 28, but it has prevented him from garnering much rehab work in minor league games. He has only totaled 15 minor league plate appearances this year, three of which have come with the Indians’ Triple-A affiliate.

Because Donaldson has barely seen the field over the past three-plus months, his trade value prior to the non-waiver deadline in July and the waiver version in August significantly diminished. As a result, the Blue Jays nearly ended up retaining Donaldson through the season but ultimately dealt the former MVP (and cash considerations) right before last month’s deadline. Toronto parted with Donaldson for a player to be named later – reportedly Indians minor league right-hander Julian Merryweather – in lieu of keeping the pending free agent and issuing him a qualifying offer in the offseason.

If he’s able to avoid a setback in the coming days and return to the field for Cleveland, it’s anyone’s guess what Donaldson will provide the soon-to-be AL Central champions. The 32-year-old was a superstar-caliber player from 2013-17, but along with his injury woes this season, he has dealt with a decline in production. Donaldson has batted an unspectacular .234/.333/.423 in 2018, though that output has come over a small sample of 158 plate appearances.

The Indians are left to hope the previous version of Donaldson will reappear over the next several weeks, and if he’s healthy enough to stay in their lineup, third baseman/MVP candidate Jose Ramirez will shift to second base and second baseman Jason Kipnis will move to the outfield. And Donaldson, in addition to trying to help the Indians win a World Series, will attempt to up his stock as a trip to the open market looms.

Andrew Miller Optimistic Of Return

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  • There’s good news for the Indians on the progress of southpaw Andrew Miller, as Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports. The key reliever says he’s feeling good after a well-placed cortisone shot to his shoulder. That has given all involved some optimism that he’ll not only return late in the season, but will hit the ground running in time to prepare for the postseason. As Miller puts it: “I do feel it’s all in line right now and we’re getting ready to take off.” Of course, Miller’s showing the rest of the way will also be a major factor in deciding the outcome of his forthcoming trip onto the open market.

Minor MLB Transactions: 9/5/18

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We’ll track Wednesday’s moves from around the league here…

  • After recently being designated for assignment, lefty Danny Coulombe was outrighted today by the Athletics. The 28-year-old has generated 9.9 K/9 on the year, while generating a strong 13.5% swinging-strike rate, but has also allowed 4.2 walks and 1.9 home runs per nine innings. He has surrendered a dozen earned runs in his 23 2/3 frames, but the more concerning number is the batting line posted this year by opposing southpaw hitters: .317/.364/.512.

Earlier Moves

  • The Mariners announced that right-hander Rob Whalen has been outrighted off the 40-man roster following his DFA on Saturday. The 24-year-old tossed four shutout innings for the Mariners this season but carries an ugly 5.16 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and 0.45 HR/9 in 99 1/3 innings with Seattle’s Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma. The former Mets/Braves farmhand has a career 5.75 ERA in 36 big league innings.
  • The Phillies announced that infielder Jesmuel Valentin has cleared waivers after being designated for assignment and been sent outright to Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The 24-year-old switch-hitter managed just a .177/.258/.304 slash through 89 plate appearances in the Majors this season and turned in a fairly underwhelming .240/.346/.341 slash in Triple-A prior to being removed from the 40-man roster. Valentin’s bat has wilted as he’s climbed the minor league ranks and faced more advanced competition, and he’s not considered a strong enough defender up the middle to be a glove-first utility option.
  • Right-hander Evan Marshall has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Columbus by the Indians, the team announced. Marshall threw well in 24 Triple-A innings this season (1.13 ERA, 21-to-3 K/BB ratio, 66.2 percent grounder rate) and picked up nine punchouts with a 56.5 percent ground-ball rate in the big league ’pen. He missed time earlier in the year with a right elbow issue, though, and has been hampered by numerous other issues in the past — most notably a terrifying, near-fatal skull fracture suffered in 2015 when he was struck in the head by a line-drive comebacker while pitching for the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A affiliate. If he doesn’t return to the Majors this season, the 28-year-old should find plenty of interest as a minor league free agent over the winter, given his strong showing in Triple-A and a lengthy track record of inducing grounders (55.9 percent in 92 2/3 MLB innings) and missing bats (career 12.5 percent swinging-strike rate).

Blue Jays Will Reportedly Acquire Julian Merryweather As PTBNL In Josh Donaldson Trade

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The Blue Jays will acquire right-hander Julian Merryweather as the player to be named later in the Josh Donaldson trade, tweets Fancred’s Jon Heyman. Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com tweeted at the time of the deal that Merryweather “was rumored” to eventually be Toronto-bound, while Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi tweeted more recently that Merryweather “is expected” to eventually be announced as the PTBNL.

An official announcement doesn’t seem likely to happen until after the season. The 26-year-old Merryweather underwent Tommy John surgery during Spring Training and has spent the season on the minor league disabled list. Because he’s not healthy enough to begin a rehab assignment, he won’t be passed through waivers before the end of the season, so it seems that a formal announcement could yet be more than a month away.

Prior to the 2018 season, Baseball America ranked Merryweather 17th among Indians farmhands, praising a fastball that reaches 97 mph with regularity, an above-average but inconsistent changeup and another pair of potentially average breaking pitches (slider, curve).

Merryweather breezed through Double-A last year as a 25-year-old, pitching to a 3.38 ERA with a 52-to-10 K/BB ratio and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate in 50 2/3 innings. He was too homer-prone in a later stint at Triple-A, leading to a 6.58 ERA, but his K/BB numbers and ground-ball tendencies remained strong. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote shortly after his promotion to Triple-A last year that both his changeup and curveball could be plus offerings, calling Merryweather a potential mid-rotation starter.

While the Blue Jays will assuredly exercise caution when working Merryweather back from Tommy John surgery next spring, he’ll give the team an arm that could help either in the bullpen or in the rotation as soon as next summer. And, because Merryweather didn’t spent the 2018 season on the Major League disabled list, he didn’t accrue any MLB service time and will thus remain controllable through at least the 2024 season — if not the 2025 campaign.

That proximity to the Majors, it seems, was enough for the Jays to deem Merryweather a more appealing and more valuable piece than the draft pick they’d have received upon extending a qualifying offer to Donaldson and allowing him to test free agency. (Indeed, GM Ross Atkins told Sportsnet’s Arash Madani that the PTBNL is someone the organization considers to be an “exciting upper-level talent.”) It’s also possible, perhaps even likely, that the team simply didn’t feel comfortable making that type of offer to Donaldson on the heels of his injury-ruined season — especially with wunderkind Vladimir Guerrero Jr. waiting in the wings to hold down third base for the foreseeable future.

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