Latest On Yovani Gallardo
Reports suggest that there are three teams currently pursuing free agent righty Yovani Gallardo. We heard yesterday that the Rockies were lining up to participate in talks, and SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo suggested today on Twitter that the Orioles and Astros have also remained involved.
But Baltimore executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette said earlier this morning that the club is strongly disinclined to part with its top draft choice (currently 14th overall). And the club does not appear willing to go to a fourth year for Gallardo, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Houston, too, would need to punt a valuable pick (18th overall). While it’s long been expected that those clubs would consider starting pitching additions, and could still stand to do so, that added disincentive poses a significant barrier.
As for the Rockies, Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt, tells MLB.com’s Thomas Harding that his client would “be happy pitching for any of the three teams” — apparently suggesting that the specter of Coors Field won’t deter the veteran. Indeed, the Rockies are participating in “serious” talks with Gallardo, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports on Twitter. But he adds that the club does not currently have an offer outstanding, and GM Jeff Bridich downplayed the link in public comments.
Unlike the other two teams, the Rockies would not have to give up their top choice — the fourth selection in this summer’s draft — to add Gallardo, who requires compensation because he turned down a qualifying offer from the Rangers. Attracting pitchers to throw at altitude has always been a challenge, of course, but that beneficial draft situation and a somewhat slow-to-develop market for Gallardo could leave the Rockies in solid position to make a move.
The fit for Colorado is obvious: while the organization has some potentially valuable arms, their rotation is as unsettled as any in the majors. There are questions up and down the staff: Jorge De La Rosa is steady but aging; Jordan Lyles and Tyler Chatwood are coming off of significant injuries; and Chad Bettis had a surprisingly solid 2015 but hardly has a deep track record. Younger options such as Jon Gray, Eddie Butler, and Tyler Matzek have shown talent but are hardly sure things, while Jeff Hoffman, Tyler Anderson, and others may be in need of further seasoning before they’re considered at the MLB level.
From a payroll perspective, the Rockies already have about $91MM on the books for the coming season and will still need to add the arbitration salaries of Charlie Blackmon (between $3.9MM and $2.7MM arb filings) and DJ LeMahieu ($3.3MM vs. $2.8MM). Of course, after signing Gerardo Parra, the club seems in position to deal an outfielder, and that could bring some salary relief along with a return in players. The team has never reached the $100MM threshold on an Opening Day roster.
Gallardo, who’ll soon turn 30, has turned in excellent results of late and is quite durable. But his peripherals are on the decline — in particular, a plummeting strikeout rate — and he’s now one of only three starters among MLBTR’s top fifty free agents who have yet to sign. (The others, Mat Latos and Doug Fister, figure to be available on shorter deals.) MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted a four-year, $52MM salary entering the winter. It is fair to note that we’ve seen other pitchers — Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza — reach that level of salary at this stage of the offseason or later. And there’s no denying that the market for starting pitching has been robust.
Free Agent Notes: Gallardo, Indians, Nationals, Webb, Fister, Bell
As the Rockies search for upgrades to their rotation and bullpen, the team is now considering a run at right-hander Yovani Gallardo, tweets Jon Heyman. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets that the two sides haven’t had any extensive discussions yet but are expected to meet in the near future. Asked about the reports linking his team to Gallardo, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich downplayed the interest on MLB Network Radio (Twitter link), saying: “I’m not sure where that came from. It’s no different than checking in on just about everybody.” Many expect the Rockies to address their rotation, although the common belief is that they’ll do so by trading from their outfield surplus. There’s enough uncertainty in the current rotation that Colorado could do both, though, and it’s worth noting that the team’s first-round pick is protected by virtue of its finish in the 2016 standings. Then again, convincing any free-agent pitcher to spend a considerable amount of time calling Coors Field his home park is a difficult task.
A few more odds and ends pertaining to the remaining free agent market…
- The Indians are still open to adding a free agent at the right price, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Both Juan Uribe and David Freese are potential fits, but there’s no momentum toward a deal at this time. Cleveland could certainly use a bat at either third base or in the outfield though, as Jeff Todd and I discussed on today’s MLBTR Podcast. (Specifically, Austin Jackson strikes me as a nice speculative fit for Cleveland.)
- Regardless of what happens with Yoenis Cespedes, the Nationals do not appear to be done trying for improvements, as Heyman tweets that the club is still looking to add to the bullpen. Moving Drew Storen for Ben Revere obviously lessened the team’s relief depth, and it’s not hard to see the rationale for continuing to stockpile (if not also to add another late-inning arm).
- The Rays are among the teams with interest in righty Ryan Webb, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Webb, who’ll soon turn 30, had an odd transactional year as the Orioles and Dodgers used his contract to facilitate other moves. But he ended up putting up 50 2/3 solid frames for the Indians, working to a 3.20 ERA with 5.5 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 to go with an excellent 59.2% groundball rate, and he’s generally been quite a solid reliever over his seven-year career.
- While there’s some merit to the idea of Doug Fister as a Yankees target, the club does not appear inclined to go past one year on a deal, Jack Curry of the YES Network tweets. Notably, too, owner Hal Steinbrenner told Jon Heyman yesterday (Twitter link) that he doesn’t see much room to add even this year: “I’m not comfortable with the payroll being too much higher than it is now.”
- Cuban outfielder Alexei Bell has established residency in Mexico and is applying tomorrow for free agency, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reports on Twitter. It’s not yet clear what kind of market the veteran will find for his services, but he is obviously leaving his home island in hopes of making an impact at the major league level.
Rockies’ GM Bridich Talks Outfield Situation
The signing of outfielder Gerardo Parra to a three-year, $27.5MM contract has led many to believe that the Rockies will trade one of their three incumbent left-handed hitting outfielders: Corey Dickerson, Charlie Blackmon or Carlos Gonzalez. However, GM Jeff Bridich doesn’t see a trade as a necessity, he said in an appearance on MLB Network’s Hot Stove this morning (via MLB.com’s Thomas Harding) and again at a conference call with reporters this afternoon (via the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders).
“I know it’s popular to expect a trade, but it’s tough to put odds on it right now,” said Bridich on the conference call. “The last thing I want to do is apologize for bringing more talent into this organization. … Adding another professional, talented young outfielder is overall a good thing. Having too much depth is a good thing.”
Regarding reports out of Venezuela which surfaced recently and said that Bridich told Gonzalez that he wouldn’t be traded, the GM explained to MLBN’s Matt Vasgersian and Harold Reynolds that his words were somewhat misrepresented by the foreign media, calling it “overblown.” Rather, the GM told his outfielder that any report lacking Bridich’s own name was probably little more than a rumor or speculation and shouldn’t be taken to heart. Bridich spoke highly of Gonzalez, noting that while he wasn’t originally signed by the Rox, he grew up in the organization and has become a core part of the team in Denver. “He’s been one of the cornerstone guys for us,” said Bridich on MLBN. “So you have to think long and hard before you even consider listening on a guy like that. Just as much as he would be a value to another team, he’s a value to us.”
Not only did Bridich speak highly of Gonzalez, but Parra, too, voiced excitement about playing alongside his longtime friend. Gonzalez and Parra have been Venezuelan Winter League teammates dating back to 2005 and were also teammates on Team Venezuela in the 2013 World Baseball Classic, Saunders notes. “I feel really happy to play for the Rockies,” Parra said on today’s conference call with Saunders and other reporters. “I played against Colorado for many years and I like playing at Coors Field. I feel really, really happy to play with Carlos Gonzalez.”
While some might note that recent defensive metrics have called Parra’s glove into question, Bridich said in both columns that Parra “certainly improves our defense” whenever he takes the field. Not only that, Parra said he’d be comfortable playing center field, and Bridich agreed that Parra is capable of handling the position. Some could infer that said belief makes a trade of Blackmon, the incumbent center fielder more likely, though Bridich’s overall message in both appearances seems to be that a trade of an outfielder isn’t necessary.
That said, I have to admit that it’s personally difficult for me to envision a situation in which the Rockies enter the season with all four outfielders on the roster. Parra’s relative limitations against left-handed pitching eliminates the possibility of any sort of traditional platoon. And, considering the fact that Dickerson is a potential building block, it stands to reason that the team would want to maximize his playing time — especially coming off a season in which he lost quite a bit of time due to multiple DL stints resulting from plantar fasciitis. Blackmon was one of the Rockies’ better all-around players in 2015, and there’s no reason to expect that Gonzalez, who is owed $37MM over the next two seasons and is one of the team’s most productive hitters, would be in for a significant decrease in playing time.
That’s merely my own take on the situation, of course, and injuries could create opportunities for Parra to get into the lineup. The lengthy absences of Dickerson in 2015 and Gonzalez’s extensive injury history serve as reminders that there could very well be a need for another quality outfield option. Bridich, after all, said on MLB Network that he’s been getting calls “from the get-go” in what he characterizes as a “slow-moving” outfield market. And, despite the persistent interest and the addition of Parra, Colorado has yet to make a trade. However, Parra’s contract would make him a very expensive contingency plan if that’s the team’s ultimate vision for him.
Quick Hits: Cespedes, Upton, Rays, Rockies
Here’s the latest from around the league:
- With Chris Davis off the board, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post looks at the market for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. While Davidoff runs through five of Cespedes’ top suitors, he ultimately concludes that none of them are a perfect fit to offer Cespedes his asking price. Budget or an unwillingness to spend on a right-handed outfielder are barriers with most of the obvious matches. The Tigers are a reasonable dark horse candidate for Cespedes (or Justin Upton) due to owner Mike Illich’s penchant for surprise blockbusters. With his market seemingly growing stale, I wonder if a team like the Phillies could be baited into a bid. They have the money and wouldn’t have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. Preposterous? Probably.
- The 2016-2017 free agent pool is thin in the outfield, making a one-year deal a viable option for Cespedes and Upton, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Carlos Gomez and Jose Bautista are the top names available, although either player could be re-signed. After the top pair, the market thins out dramatically. Re-entering the market strikes me as an unnecessary risk for Cespedes and Upton. Both players had strong, healthy platform seasons. Cespedes in particular stands to lose out if he’s impatient. He isn’t tied to a qualifying offer, and it’s hard to imagine him improving upon a 6.7 WAR season.
- Speaking of dark horse buyers, the Rays could jump in the market for a player like Upton, Ian Desmond, Pedro Alvarez, or Steve Pearce, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The Rays are still shopping their starting pitching, but the well-stocked free agent market may prove too tempting. Any free agent addition would require require owner Stuart Sternberg’s approval, but he’s been on board with opportunistic additions in the past. Topkin also lists Marlon Byrd, Justin Morneau, and David Murphy as possible fits. The club would like to get out from under some of the $8MM owed to James Loney.
- The Rockies have three obvious issues, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The outfield is crowded by the addition of Gerardo Parra. The club seemingly would like to trade one or more of Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Corey Dickerson, presumably to solve their second problem – a lack of pitching depth and talent. The players themselves ask if Saunders if the Rockies will acquire pitching. So far, they’ve sat out the free agent market. The Rays are the most obvious sellers in the trade market. Last but not least, Jose Reyes‘ future with the club is completely uncertain. He played poorly after joining the Rockies and currently faces criminal charges and possible jail time in relation to domestic abuse charges. He’s also a suspension candidate under the league’s new domestic violence policy.
NL Notes: Parity, CarGo, Cubs, Reds, Appel
The National League has rather a pronounced divide between its better teams and its anticipated bottom-dwellers, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark writes, and that poses a significant problem. While commissioner Rob Manfred says that the league’s less talented clubs are in a routine phase of the natural winning/rebuilding cycle, some rival executives believe that at least some organizations are looking to strip down their MLB rosters, pursue top draft picks, and aim for a relatively distant competitive timeline. There are a host of interesting quotes, particularly from Manfred, who says that outright tanking efforts would be “self-correcting” in that, “if too many teams try to follow this strategy, the effectiveness of that strategy will be naturally undermined.” The piece is well worth a read.
Here’s the latest out of the N.L.:
- Rockies GM Jeff Bridich has been in touch with veteran outfielder Carlos Gonzalez to tell him not to pay any heed to trade rumors, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports. While that’s hardly any guarantee, multiple rival GMs say they have received the impression that Colorado will not move its most recognizable player this winter, Jon Heyman tweets. Nevertheless, the recent signing of Gerardo Parra still seemingly leaves the club with good cause to move an outfielder. If it isn’t CarGo, of course, then the two obvious candidates would be Charlie Blackmon and Corey Dickerson.
- Chances are “slim” that the Cubs will make another major addition before the season, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said today, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports on Twitter. We’ve heard plenty of suggestions of ways Chicago could look to add yet more impact after an already-busy offseason, but it certainly doesn’t appear as if the club really needs to do anything to its roster at this point.
- The Reds are still working on various trade scenarios, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via TwitLonger). Jay Bruce seems the most plausible trade piece, Crasnick indicates, but his market is complicated by Colorado’s trio of possible left-handed bats for sale. And he arguably hasn’t performed to the standard of his rather expensive contract in recent years. “Once you start down this road, it is important to continue with the tough decisions and not pull up in the middle of the project,” said GM Dick Williams. “That being said, we cannot force deals so I cannot guarantee we will do more.’’
- New Phillies hurler Mark Appel has a lot to prove, Crasnick writes. But the 24-year-old says he is determined and able to live up to his former billing as a top-end pitching prospect.
Jose Reyes Set For April Trial On Domestic Violence Charges
Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes is currently scheduled to stand trial in April after pleading not guilty to charges of domestic abuse stemming from an incident in Hawaii on Halloween day last year, Christian Red of the New York Daily News reports. That’s the same date that Colorado is scheduled to open the 2016 season in Arizona.
The local prosecutor, Kerry Glen, said he would not rule out a plea deal between now and the start of the trial, though he gave no indication of the likelihood of such a scenario. “If I find that acceptable, we would enter into that agreement,” said Glen. “There is always potential for additional negotiation between now and then.”
Needless to say, the charges themselves appear appropriately serious given the accusations against Reyes. It certainly seems that he faces a realistic prospect of jail time if convicted, though the precise counts being pursued are not immediately clear from the article.
But there are quite significant additional considerations at play beyond the immediate criminal matter. According to the Daily News, it is not known whether Reyes — a native of the Dominican Republic — ever completed a reported effort to gain U.S. citizenship.
If he is not presently an American citizen, there certainly could be serious immigration repercussions in the event that he pleads guilty or is convicted. There are a wide variety of considerations that would go into just what could occur on the immigration side of things, but that does indeed appear to be a serious matter.
Senior MLBTR readers will no doubt recall that there have been several recent instances where players’ careers and personal lives were heavily impacted by immigration difficulties. Without intending any direct comparisons, the cases of Roberto Hernandez and Juan Carlos Oviedo (both of which involved the use of false identifies) involved contract disruptions and lengthy holds on their playing careers, though both were ultimately able to return. (To get a sense of how things played out in those cases, you can review the old tags for their assumed identities: Fausto Carmona and Leo Nunez.)
To be sure, the least important matters at issue here are the impact on the baseball season that lies ahead and Reyes’s contract status with the Rockies. But there are obviously real implications here from that perspective for both team and player. If nothing else, the trial date presents a self-evident conflict, as would any hypothetical prison time. And recent reports have been somewhat unclear as to the league’s timeline for deciding upon its own disciplinary action (if any), with suggestions that the commissioner will act before the season (if not Spring Training, too) but also that there’s an apparent preference to first allow the legal process to conclude.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday
The deadline for teams to exchange arbitration figures with eligible players is 1pm ET today. Dozens of arb agreements figure to flow in over the next few hours, and we’ll keep track of the smaller arb agreements in this post. All projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be viewed on the full list of 156 players that filed for arbitration this year. Remember also that you can keep track of everyone that has avoided arbitration by checking out MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
Onto the agreements…
- Shortstop Zack Cozart is in agreement with the Reds for an undisclosed sum, per a team announcement. He projected at $2.9MM in his second year of eligibility after a promising start to the 2015 season was cut short by a serious knee injury.
- The Diamondbacks announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Rubby De La Rosa for an undisclosed sum. He was projected at $3.2MM but, per Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com (on Twitter), will earn only $2.35MM.
- Reliever Fernando Rodriguez settled with the Athletics for $1.05MM — beneath his projected $1.3MM — per the Associated Press.
- Dodgers infielder Justin Turner will earn $5.1MM next season, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. That’s just a shade under his $5.3MM projection.
- The Braves settled with reliever Arodys Vizcaino for $897,500, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. He had a $1.1MM projection entering the fall.
- Both Zach Putnam will earn a $975K salary next year after agreeing with the White Sox, per a club announcement. That’s $175K over the projected arb value of the Super Two.
- The Cardinals settled with first baseman Matt Adams for $1.65MM, Heyman tweets. That’s a small bump over his $1.5MM projections. The team is also in agreement with right-hander Seth Maness, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Super Two reliever projected at $1.2MM but will receive $1.4MM, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter).
- Righty Tom Koehler receives a $3.5MM payday from the Marlins, per Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The team gets a break on the $3.9MM that had been projected. The team also has an agreement with righties David Phelps and Carter Capps, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets. Heyman adds (via Twitter) that Phelps will earn exactly his projected amount of $2.5MM. Capps was predicted to earn $800K, but his salary is yet to be reported.
- The Diamondbacks agreed to a $4.35MM rate with first-year-eligible starter Shelby Miller, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. He had projected at $4.9MM. Notably, Miller comes in just ahead of fellow 3+ service-class pitcher Harvey (who is covered below). Fellow Arizona hurler Patrick Corbin will earn $2.525MM next year, Passan also tweets.
- The Nationals have agreed with infielder Danny Espinosa for $2.875MM, Jon Heyman tweets. He gets a slight bump over his $2.7MM projection in his second season of arb eligibility.
- Nolan Arenado will receive a $5MM salary from the Rockies in his first season of eligibility, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. That’s exactly what fellow star young third baseman Manny Machado settled for as well, though Arenado was a Super Two. As Swartz explained recently, those two players’ cases may well have been tied together despite some important distinctions. He also explained why Arenado might not reach his sky-high $6.6MM projection in actuality.
- The Orioles have agreed with starter Miguel Gonzalez for $5.1MM, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Gonzalez projected for $4.9MM.
- Outfielder Chris Coghlan agreed at $4.8MM with the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets. That’s quite a nice increase over his projected $3.9MM. Also agreeing with Chicago was reliever Pedro Strop, who gets $4.4MM, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He had been projected at $4.7MM.
- Both righty Michael Pineda (for $4.3MM) and infielder/outfielder Dustin Ackley ($3.2MM), according to Passan (via Twitter) and Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Those numbers largely track the projected amounts of $4.6MM and $3.1MM, respectively.
- Danny Duffy will play at $4.225MM next year after reaching terms with the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Catcher Drew Butera, meanwhile, will get $1,162,500 from Kansas City. Both represented small bumps over their projected values of $4MM and $1.1MM.
- Marlins closer A.J. Ramos will get $3.4MM in 2016, Heyman reports (Twitter links). Teammate Adeiny Hechavarria, meanwhile, will take down $2.625MM. Both first-year-eligible players went over their projections ($2.8MM and $2.3MM, respectively).
- The Mets will pay $4.325MM to Matt Harvey and $3MM to shortstop Ruben Tejada for 2016, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports (Twitter links). Harvey approaches, but doesn’t quite reach, his $4.7MM projection. Though he’s still recovering from an unfortunate leg injury suffered during the post-season, Tejada will take home a cool half-million more than had been projected.
- Righty Joe Kelly has agreed with the Red Sox at $2.6MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. He falls a fair sight shy of the $3.2MM that MLBTR projected. Though he reached ten wins on the year, Kelly scuffled to a 4.82 ERA over his 134 1/3 innings.
- Righty Drew Hutchison agreed with the Blue Jays for $2.2MM, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. He falls short of a $2.6MM projection after a tough 2015 campaign.
- The Tigers have reached terms with shortstop Jose Iglesias for $2.1MM, per another Heyman tweet. The deal also includes some incentives, per the report. That’s a healthy jump up over the $1.5MM projection for the slick-fielding infielder, who did have a strong 2015 season.
- The Mariners announced that they reached agreement with lefty Charlie Furbush and righty Evan Scribner. Furbush will receive $1.7MM, while Scribner will get $807.5K, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
- Both shortstop Jean Segura and righty Wily Peralta are under contract with the Brewers, per a team announcement. Segura gets $2.6MM after being projected at $3.2MM, per Heyman (Twitter link). Matt Swartz’s system pegged Peralta at $2.8MM, and that’s exactly what he’ll earn, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter).
There are plenty more after the jump:
Arbitration Breakdown: Nolan Arenado
Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Nolan Arenado broke out offensively in 2015 with 42 home runs, 130 runs batted in and a .287 batting average to go along with his third Gold Glove Award. Arenado was not a prolific power hitter before this year, so he only has 70 career home runs, including this year’s 42. This jump in power in his third year in the league is unique and makes it harder to find appropriate comparables for him when building an arbitration case. Our model has him at $6.6MM, but I could easily see this being either a big miss or a big win for the model.
It has been eight years since the last time a hitter entered his first year of arbitration after clubbing at least 40 home runs in his platform year. That was when Ryan Howard beat the Phillies in an arbitration hearing to earn $10MM. However, Howard also had been a power hitter for over two seasons beforehand and had 129 career home runs, nearly twice as many as Arenado brings to the table. It seems very unlikely that Arenado could get $10MM.
Another case that is old enough that it might not be applicable is Ryan Ludwick from 2009, although his numbers are at least closer to Arenado in that he had a huge jump in power in his platform season. Ludwick’s 37 homers in his platform season were five fewer than Arenado his this season, but the two had identical marks of 28 homers combined in their careers prior their platform arbitration year. Ludwick also had a lower career batting average, 34 fewer career RBIs and 17 fewer RBIs in his platform season, although he did post a higher average in his platform (.299). All that said, Arenado should surpass Ludwick’s $3.7MM by a substantial margin.
Another thing that makes Arenado unique is his defense. No player in my dataset, which goes back nine years, has had three Gold Gloves before reaching arbitration eligibility. Only Matt Wieters had two, and he was a catcher. Wieters did earn $5.5MM, and while he’s a totally different position than Arenado at third base, the concept that he had such a high salary with one fewer gold glove and worse power numbers (23 HR, 83 RBI platform year; 65 and 249 career), could help Arenado argue that he deserves more. However, it is rare that a catcher would be a comparable player for a third baseman.
Few other players seem like reasonable comparables. Chris Carter hit .227 with 37 home runs and 88 RBIs in his platform year in 2014, and had a career average of .222 with 85 home runs and 216 RBIs. Carter got $4.175MM. Other than career home runs, Arenado clearly has bested Carter on all of these fronts. Pedro Alvarez had very similar numbers the year before that (.233/36/100 platform, .235/86/268 career) and got $4.25MM, making that $4.175-4.25MM range seem like something of a floor in Arenado’s case.
How much higher than $4.25MM we would expect Arenado to go is tricky. Dan Uggla got $5.35MM in 2009, with a worse platform year (.260/32/92) but decent career numbers (.262/90/270). However, the age of that case makes it a potentially stale comparison. Giancarlo Stanton had only 24 platform year home runs when he got $6.5MM, but he had 117 career home runs at that point. Mark Trumbo had 34 platform year home runs, but 95 career home runs, although his batting average was just .234 in his platform year. None of these players can boast the defense that Arenado can, either.
Another factor that could play into Arenado’s case is where Manny Machado lands. Machado is similar to Arenado in that he had an explosion of power in his platform year, hits for average, and plays third base very well. Both of these players are likely to earn similar amounts, although Arenado led the league in home runs and runs batted in, plus he has three Gold Gloves, which should give him a leg up on Machado. Both players will pay careful attention to where the other guy considers signing. Ultimately, I suspect both will fall short of their projected salaries (Machado’s projected $5.9MM is $700K less than Arenado’s $6.6MM projection). However, if one player does indeed reach his projection (which is certainly possible), the other is likely to have a better chance to do so as well.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Angels Notes: Santiago, Richards, Wilson, CarGo, Blackmon
Part of the reason that the Angels acted quickly in avoiding arbitration with left-hander Hector Santiago was due to trade interest they’ve received in the 28-year-old, reports MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez (links to Twitter). While there isn’t one specific trade scenario on which the Angels were focused, the team wanted to eliminate as many variables as possible in order to simplify discussions with interested parties. Gonzalez adds that there’s nothing imminent on Santiago at this time. Coming off 180 2/3 innings of 3.59 ERA, 8.1 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 with two years of club control remaining and a reasonable $5MM salary for the upcoming season, it’s easy to see why some clubs would be intrigued by Santiago. Then again, he also led the AL in home runs allowed (29) and recorded just a 29.9 percent ground-ball rate. Metrics like FIP (4.77), xFIP (5.00) and SIERA (4.50) are considerably less optimistic when viewing Santiago than traditional metrics like ERA, although it’s worth noting that his bottom-line results have always outpaced his peripheral stats in the Majors; Santiago has a 3.55 ERA in his career while the three aforementioned ERA estimators value his production in the 4.29 to 4.71 range.
Here’s more on the Halos…
- The Angels and ace Garrett Richards have been working to avoid arbitration, per Gonzalez, but the two sides still have “a ways to go,” he hears. The two sides will exchange arbitration numbers on Friday (assuming a deal doesn’t come together quickly before that date) and have another five or six weeks to negotiate in an effort to avoid a hearing.
- While there’s been plenty of speculation linking left-hander C.J. Wilson to the Rockies in various trade scenarios, such a trade almost certainly won’t happen. MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports (via Twitter) that one of the eight teams to which Wilson can block a trade under the limited no-trade protection that comes in the final season of his five-year contract is the Rockies. Wilson could, of course, agree to waive that right, although it’s difficult to envision any pitcher — let alone one that is coming off surgery and entering a contract year — would green-light a trade to the hitters’ haven that is Coors Field.
- The Angels have interest in Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets. While Fletcher noted as much yesterday, he adds today that the Halos do have some concerns about Blackmon’s splits. It’s not clear if Fletcher is referring to Blackmon’s platoon splits, home/road splits or both, but each dramatic split would be an understandable reason for pause. Blackmon has mashed at a .334/.386/.501 clip while playing at home over the course of his career but has mustered just a .241/.283/.370 slash away from Coors Field. And, while his platoon splits aren’t as pronounced, he has a .729 OPS against lefties compared to a .788 mark against righties in his career, and the discrepancy between those two numbers has grown in recent seasons. Fletcher also notes in his tweet that he is “99 percent sure” that the Angels won’t land Carlos Gonzalez in a trade due to the money remaining on Gonzalez’s deal. The 30-year-old Gonzalez is owed $37MM over the next two years and carries an $11.4MM average annual value (the number which counts against the luxury tax) on his seven-year, $80MM contract.
- Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times writes that the Halos are about $5MM away from the luxury tax barrier, and owner Arte Moreno has yet to indicate any sort of willingness to exceed that $189MM threshold. The Angels haven’t had “substantive” talks about the Rockies’ trio of potentially available outfielders, a source tells DiGiovanna, who implies that an impact upgrade over the platoon of Daniel Nava and Craig Gentry seems unlikely. “We talk about players who are still available in free agency or who might be available in trades,” said GM Billy Eppler of his talks with Moreno. “We have our conversations, and that’s it. We’re discussing all of our options all of the time.” Eppler declined comment on specific players but told DiGiovanna that he would “of course” be satisfied if this ends up being the group he takes to Spring Training: “There are a lot of pieces on this team that were there last year until Game 162 scratching, clawing and fighting to keep themselves in it and were on the doorstep of a playoff appearance.”
Latest On Trade Interest In Rockies’ Outfielders
With the news that the Rockies have agreed to sign Gerardo Parra to join an already heavily-left-handed outfield mix, it seems increasingly likely that Colorado will strike a deal involving one of its current players. We’ve heard of wide-ranging possible matches for Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Corey Dickerson, any of whom could in theory be moved.
Here are the latest rumors on the Colorado outfield situation now that Parra is in the fold:
- The Tigers have also been in contact with the Rockies regarding their outfielders, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. No deal between the two sides is close, however, and it’s unclear which of Blackmon, Dickerson or Gonzalez intrigues Detroit the most at this juncture.
Earlier Updates
- The Orioles are still participating in “ongoing trade talks” with the Rockies regarding outfielders, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Baltimore has been connected previously to Gonzalez, though it seems plausible to think that any of the Rockies’ outfield trade chips could hold interest.
- While the Angels have long seemed a plausible trade partner with Colorado, they have not been in contact on outfielders for several weeks, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). Los Angeles has previously been called at least a hypothetical match on Blackmon, in particular. The team is still looking for a corner outfielder, though it seems possible the club could run out a platoon of Craig Gentry and Daniel Nava if it can’t line up an upgrade at a reasonable price.
- It’s interesting to wonder whether Colorado has already decided which (if any) of its outfielders it intends to move. There are several considerations at play, of course, but one simple truth is that the club needs someone to play center field next year. Blackmon took most of the reps up the middle last year, so parting with him could be extra painful — unless the team simply plans to use Parra there. But he has seen declining metrics that suggest a more challenging assignment may not be the best idea. And while both Gonzalez and Dickerson have appeared in center previously, neither looks like a good bet to receive regular time in that spot. I’d add, also, that the outfield market has changed quite a bit in recent weeks. Clubs like the Royals (Alex Gordon), Giants (Denard Span), and Nationals (Ben Revere) have made additions that either take them out of the market altogether or significantly reduce their need.