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Astros GM James Click’s Contract Expires After 2022 Season

By Mark Polishuk | September 12, 2022 at 8:28pm CDT

8:28pm: Crane doesn’t sound as if he’s leaning towards a leadership change, telling Mark Berman of Fox 26 he’s “aware both contracts are up and we’ll address them at the end of the season. We don’t want any distractions right now” (Twitter link).

6:50pm: The exact terms of James Click’s deal with the Astros weren’t publicized when he was hired in February 2020, but Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports that Click’s contract only runs through the conclusion of the 2022 season.  It isn’t known if any extension talks have yet taken place or will place, but Rome writes that “within the organization, speculation about [Click’s] future has been a growing topic since the end of spring.”

After spending 14 years in the Rays front office, Click took over the Houston job in rather abrupt circumstances, hired less than a month after former GM Jeff Luhnow was fired in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal.  That organizational shake-up also cost A.J. Hinch his job as manager, leading to Dusty Baker’s hiring shortly before Click was brought on as the new head of baseball operations.

Given all of the tumult and controversy surrounding the Astros in the last few years, there hasn’t been much carryover to the on-field product.  Houston finished 29-31 in the shortened 2020 season but still reached the playoffs, and advanced all the way to the ALCS.  In 2021, Houston won 95 games, recaptured the AL West title, and advanced to the World Series before falling to the Braves in six games.

With a 90-50 record thus far this season, the Astros have the best record in the American League, and are again top contenders to win another championship.  In a recent podcast appearance, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal implied that some postseason success could be a necessity for Click, as “there could be some [front office] maneuvering if the Astros sputter in the playoffs.”

Even if Houston did get upset in their first postseason round, it would still seem like Click has earned a bit more leeway given the team’s record over his two-plus seasons.  However, as Rome notes, the Astros also took something of a wait-and-see approach with Baker — the manager initially signed a one-year deal with a club option that was only exercised after the 2020 season was complete, and Baker’s next contract was another one-year deal that is also up after the 2022 campaign.

It could be that Astros owner Jim Crane is again waiting until the season is completely over to work out extensions with Baker and Click, with the focus being solely on baseball for the present.  Of course, that strategy also carries risk, as any teams with front office or managerial vacancies could then emerge as other suitors for Click or Baker’s services.

If Crane was indeed considering a change, it would immediately make Houston one of the most sought-after employment destinations in baseball for any general manager.  The Astros are set up to be contenders for some time to come thanks to their fantastic core of both established and young talent — and that could also factor into Crane’s logic in perhaps wanting to move on.  Much of the Astros’ roster was already in the organization before Click was hired, so it is possible Crane could see him as something of a steward of Luhnow’s work.  Given the rather rushed circumstances behind Click and Baker’s hirings, Crane might prefer to take more time in a longer search to find the leader (or leaders) of the next chapter of the Astros’ future.

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Houston Astros James Click

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AL West Notes: Angels, Verlander, Gray, Howard

By Mark Polishuk | September 11, 2022 at 6:19pm CDT

Dr. Patrick Soon-Shiong is considering a bid on the Angels, according to Sportico’s Eric Jackson and Scott Soshnick.  The billionaire isn’t giving official comment, but Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times heard that Soon-Shiong is indeed weighing the possibility of buying the franchise.  The 70-year-old Soon-Shiong is a former transplant surgeon who built a fortune in the medical technology and pharmaceutical industries, and his business holdings also include both the L.A. Times and San Diego Union-Tribune newspapers.

This isn’t the first time Soon-Shiong has tried to get involved in baseball, as his ownership group was the runner-up bidder for the Dodgers in 2012 when Guggenheim Baseball Management bought the franchise.  Now, Soon-Shiong will apparently see if he can purchase the other Los Angeles area team, as Angels owner Arte Moreno said last month that he is considering a sale.  There is expected to be plenty of bidding on the Angels, and it seems quite possible that the price tag could end up approaching the $3 billion mark.

More from around the AL West…

  • Justin Verlander threw a live bullpen session today, simulating one inning of work with some batters stepping in against the veteran righty.  Verlander has been on the 15-day injured list since August 29 due to calf discomfort, and he told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggert and other reporters that he hoped the session would give him more of a natural pitching feel, and allow him to “stop kind of thinking about the calf and just let my mechanics work…during rehab your throwing is very stagnant and robotic.”  Physically, Verlander said he is feeling “great,” and he is hopeful of a relatively quick return to the Astros rotation.  Since Verlander saw today’s outing as a pseudo-start day from a preparation standpoint, Verlander could potentially be back in action as early as September 16, provided that he doesn’t have any recovery issues from the bullpen session.
  • The Rangers will activate Jon Gray from the 15-day injured list on Monday, as interim manager Tony Beasley told reporters (including MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry) that Gray is slated to start the second game of Texas’ doubleheader against the Marlins.  Gray hasn’t pitched since August 1 due to an oblique strain, and he’ll return within the initial 4-6 week recovery timeline.  Between this oblique problem and previous IL stints due to a knee sprain and blisters, Gray has only pitched 103 1/3 innings in his first season with Texas, though he has a 3.83 ERA and solid peripherals.
  • In other Rangers injury news, the team announced that Spencer Howard will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A today.  Howard has pitched only 37 2/3 innings in the majors this season, as he has been both in the minors and battling fingernail and blister problems before his most recent injury, a shoulder impingement.  This shoulder issue sidelined Howard about a month ago, and it remains to be seen if he can ramp up enough to make a return to the majors before the season is over.  The former top prospect has yet to show much at the MLB level, posting a 7.09 ERA over 111 2/3 career innings with the Phillies and Rangers.
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Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Notes Texas Rangers Jon Gray Justin Verlander Spencer Howard

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The Changing Landscape Of The AL Cy Young Race

By Steve Adams | September 8, 2022 at 6:57pm CDT

Two weeks ago, the Cy Young race in the American League looked like a two-horse race, with both Houston’s Justin Verlander and Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan hovering at or below the 2.00 ERA mark and racking up innings atop their teams’ respective rotations. McClanahan has the larger strikeout percentage and subsequently superior marks from fielding-independent metrics that some voters increasingly weigh. Verlander was averaging one extra out recorded per start prior to being lifted early his last time out, and his 16-3 win-loss record might hold some sway with traditionalist voters.

Or, all of that could be rendered moot.

Both Verlander and McClanahan are on the 15-day injured list, and Verlander, who had been improbably leading the Majors in ERA as a 39-year-old in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, sounds as though he’ll miss several weeks rather than just the 15-day minimum. McClanahan, a late scratch from his last start, is already throwing and seems likelier to make a quick return. However, the Rays could very well take a cautious approach and limit his innings after a two-week absence due to a shoulder impingement.

At the very least, the door is now open for further competition in Cy Young voting, ostensibly setting the stage for the closest AL vote we’ve seen since 2019, when Verlander and then-teammate Gerrit Cole finished in the top two positions on the ballot. Last year’s NL Cy Young voting sparked plenty of controversy and debate as well, and as things currently stand, we could get an encore of that scene in the AL this year.

If not Verlander or McClanahan, who are the top names to consider? Let’s dive in.

Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox

Cease, following a near-no-hitter against the Twins that saw him go 8 2/3 before Luis Arraez cracked a ninth-inning single, may have leapfrogged both Verlander and McClanahan as the odds-on favorite in the American League. He’s sitting on MLB’s third-lowest ERA — sandwiched right between Verlander and McClanahan, no less — and that 2.13 mark is complemented by a 31.4% strikeout rate that ranks as the fourth-highest of any qualified starting pitcher in baseball.

At 5.5 wins above replacement (per Baseball Reference), Cease already leads American League pitchers — even over Verlander and McClanahan. That’d due largely to the fact that Cease is putting up these numbers in front of one of the game’s bottom-10 defenses.

It’s not all roses, as Cease has a 10.4% walk rate that sits dead last among qualified starters. He hasn’t been terribly efficient, either; where both Verlander and McClanahan have averaged comfortably more than six innings per start, Cease has averaged 5.77 innings per appearance this year.

Still, Chicagoans can no doubt see the parallels between Cease’s 2022 showing and the 2016 performance of another Chicago hurler — crosstown righty Jake Arrieta, when he rode a historic summer surge to Cy Young honors. Over his past 15 starts, Cease has tallied 93 innings of 1.45 ERA ball and held opponents to one or zero runs on a dozen occasions. Cease isn’t quite in Arrieta territory (0.86 ERA in his final 147 innings), but he’s not terribly far off, either. If he can sustain anything close to this pace, Cease will finish the season at or near the top of the AL in terms of innings pitched, ERA, total strikeouts and strikeout rate.

Alek Manoah, RHP, Blue Jays

Manoah looked borderline unhittable for the season’s first two months, carrying a 1.67 ERA in that time and allowing just 55 hits and a 0.59 HR/9 mark through June 13 (75 2/3 innings). He had a solid but closer-to-average run for much of the summer but has now yielded just three runs in his past 28 1/3 innings.

At 171 innings of 2.42 ERA ball on the year, the 24-year-old is on the periphery of the race at present. He ranks fourth in American League ERA but trails McClanahan, Cease and especially Verlander in that department. He lacks the gaudy strikeout ratios boasted by both Cease and McClanahan but limits hard contact better than any non-McClanahan pitcher in the AL, evidenced by a 31.3% hard-hit rate. (McClanahan leads qualified AL starters at 30.1%.)

However, Manoah’s 171 are second-most in the American League, and if he continues this hot streak, there’s a chance he could wind up among the league leaders in ERA, innings pitched and other key categories. In terms of wins and losses, everyone’s trailing Verlander’s 16 victories, but Manoah’s 14 are tied with Framber Valdez for second in the league. Speaking of which…

Framber Valdez, LHP, Astros

It’s easy to be overshadowed by the season Verlander is enjoying, but we should all probably be discussing Valdez’s outstanding year more than we are. The 28-year-old southpaw is just one-third of an inning behind Manoah at 170 2/3, and he also sits sixth in ERA (2.64) and ninth in bWAR (3.4).

Valdez has emerged as baseball’s preeminent ground-ball starting pitcher, and it’s not close; he leads all qualified pitchers in ground-ball rate at 66.7%, and Logan Webb’s 57.5% rate is second-best. Even dropping the minimum to 50 innings as a starter, he still leads Alex Cobb (61.9%) and Andre Pallante (61.4%) by a wide margin.

In an age where starters are yanked from the game earlier than ever before, Valdez is a throwback. He’s worked at least six innings in every one of his starts since April 25, completing seven or more innings on 11 occasions and twice going the distance with a complete game. Over his past five starts, Valdez has 35 2/3 innings of 1.77 ERA ball. It’ll be a challenge for him to drop his ERA into the low 2.00s, and he can’t match Cease or McClanahan in terms of strikeouts, but Valdez will likely be the American League innings leader and finish with a mid-2.00s ERA and MLB-leading ground-ball rate.

Shohei Ohtani, RHP, Angels

When Ohtani pitched to a 3.99 ERA through the first six weeks of the season, it looked as if we were in for an (almost) mortal season out of the two-way phenom. He averaged just over five innings per start, and while the strikeouts were still there in droves, he was also unusually homer-prone. A Cy Young pursuit did not appear to be on the horizon.

In 88 2/3 innings since that time? Ohtani has a 1.83 ERA with fewer homers allowed (six) than in his first 47 1/3 innings (seven). He at one point rattled off six consecutive starts with double-digit strikeout totals, and opponents have batted .199/.249/.301 against him during this stretch.

Ohtani’s 33% strikeout rate on the season leads qualified starting pitchers (though would trail Braves phenom Spencer Strider by a good margin if Strider had a few more innings), and while many fans and Ohtani detractors bristle at the notion, it’s hard not to consider that he does all this while also serving as a middle-of-the-order slugger who ranks among the league’s top power threats.

Ultimately, with just 136 innings pitched this season, it’s hard to imagine that Ohtani will actually garner many (if any) first-place Cy Young votes. Yes, he’s sporting a 2.58 ERA, leading the league with a 33% strikeout rate and sitting second among AL starters with 4.7 bWAR. But Ohtani is ultimately going to be up against multiple starters with better bottom-line run prevention numbers and as many as 40 to 50 additional innings pitched. Corbin Burnes won an NL Cy Young last year with just 167 frames, but the top names in the American League this year have had better seasons.

Kevin Gausman, RHP, Blue Jays

Gausman will be the analytic darling in this year’s field. I debated whether to mention him at all for this breakdown, as he’d need a pretty dominant finish to push his way in among the leaders in more traditional categories, but the right-hander is second in the American League at FanGraphs with 5.2 wins above replacement. fWAR is based on fielding-independent pitching rather than actual runs allowed, and Gausman has been quite good this season — 3.12 ERA in 147 innings — despite being one of the game’s least-fortunate pitchers in terms of balls in play. He’s lugging around an MLB-worst .368 BABIP, and the next-highest mark (Jordan Lyles at .323) isn’t even close.

There’s perhaps some temptation to think that Gausman is then yielding far too much hard contact, but that’s not necessarily the case. He’s not managing contact as well as any of the others profiled here, but his 89 mph average exit velocity and 39% hard-hit rate are barely north of the respective 88.6 mph and 38.3% league averages in those regards.

Gausman has the game’s third-best walk rate (3.8%), the tenth-best strikeout rate (27.9%) and is sixth-best in the differential between those two (24.1 K-BB%). He’s averaging just 5 2/3 innings per start, however, and isn’t particularly helping his cause down the stretch (3.99 ERA over his past five outings… again, with a .370 BABIP).

—

A lot can (and will) change between now and season’s end, but since this is all just for debate anyhow, I’ll include a poll to close this out:

Who will win the American League Cy Young Award?
Justin Verlander 36.10% (657 votes)
Dylan Cease 25.93% (472 votes)
Alek Manoah 13.74% (250 votes)
Shane McClanahan 9.73% (177 votes)
Shohei Ohtani 9.34% (170 votes)
Framber Valdez 2.53% (46 votes)
Other (specify in comments) 1.70% (31 votes)
Kevin Gausman 0.93% (17 votes)
Total Votes: 1,820
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Chicago White Sox Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels MLBTR Originals Tampa Bay Rays Toronto Blue Jays Alek Manoah Dylan Cease Framber Valdez Justin Verlander Shane McClanahan Shohei Ohtani

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Injury Notes: Franco, Verlander, Arano

By Darragh McDonald | September 5, 2022 at 12:30pm CDT

Rays shortstop Wander Franco resumed his rehab assignment yesterday, slotting in as the designated hitter for the Triple-A Durham Bulls as he attempts to return from July hamate surgery. The plan, as relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, is for Franco to stick with the Bulls for a few more games and rejoin the Rays for their series against the Blue Jays on September 12.

Of course, this is contingent on Franco feeling well in the coming days. He attempted to begin a rehab assignment a few weeks ago but was pulled off due to continued soreness in his hand. It seems like he’s in a better position this time around, however. “This is definitely the best I’ve felt since the injury,” Franco tells Topkin, via interpreter Manny Navarro. “That’s probably the most important thing, if he feels good where he’s at, where we’re at,” manager Kevin Cash said.

Getting Franco back for the final few weeks of the regular season would certainly be a boon for the Rays. They are currently five games back of the Yankees in the battle for the AL East crown and sandwiched between the Mariners and Blue Jays in the Wild Card picture. The club also put second baseman Brandon Lowe on the IL last week, which further subtracted from their infield depth.

Other injury notes from around the league…

  • Astros righty Justin Verlander went on the IL a week ago due to a calf injury, with both Verlander and general manager James Click expressing optimism that a significant absence wouldn’t be necessary. However, Verlander probably won’t return after the 15-day minimum, Click tells Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The Astros are fortunate enough to be sitting on a record of 86-48, six games ahead of the Yankees for the best record in the American League and 17 games ahead of the Central-leading Guardians/Twins. That means the club is cruising to a first round bye and can allow Verlander to return at whatever pace is best for his health, as opposed to rushing him back for meaningful games down the stretch. Prior to the injury, the 39-year-old was having an incredible season, especially when considering he effectively missed the previous two years. He’s thrown 152 innings in 2022 with a 1.84 ERA, 26.5% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate. By surpassing the 130-inning mark, he has vested a $25MM player option for next year, but would likely be able to do better than that on the open market if he declined the option.
  • The Nationals placed right-hander Victor Arano on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 2, due to a right shoulder strain. The club hasn’t released any information about Arano’s timeline, but with only about four weeks left on the schedule, it’s possible that this ailment will end his season. He’s thrown 42 innings so far this year, his first MLB action since 2019. He has a 4.50 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and 51.6% ground ball rate. A 58.9% strand rate is probably inflating that ERA, with advanced metrics like FIP (3.71), xFIP (3.45) and SIERA (3.12) thinking he deserved much better. The 27-year-old will cross three years of MLB service time by season’s end, meaning he will qualify for arbitration for the first time.
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Houston Astros Notes Tampa Bay Rays Washington Nationals Justin Verlander Victor Arano Wander Franco

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Pirates Claim Peter Solomon From Astros

By Darragh McDonald | September 4, 2022 at 3:45pm CDT

The Pirates announced that they have claimed right-hander Peter Solomon off waivers from the Astros and optioned him to Triple-A Indianapolis. He was designated for assignment by Houston on Thursday. To make room for Solomon on their 40-man roster, the Pirates have transferred right Colin Holderman to the 60-day injured list.

Solomon, 26, was a fourth-round draft selection of the Astros in 2017, meaning this will be his first time jumping to a new organization in his career. He pitched well as he climbed the minor league ladder but was limited to just 7 2/3 innings in 2019 before Tommy John surgery shut him down. He was likely to miss most of the 2020 season while recovering, though that became somewhat moot when the pandemic wiped out the minors that year.

In 2021, he returned to the hill and made his major league debut. He tossed 14 innings in the big leagues over six games, registering a 1.29 ERA in that small sample. He spent much more time in Triple-A, however, putting up a 4.70 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League along with a 26.3% strikeout rate. Here in 2022, it’s been a bit of a step back for Solomon, as he has a 5.20 ERA across 97 innings for the Sugar Land Space Cowboys with his strikeout rate dipping to 20.5%.

Despite some of those unsavory numbers, there are reasons for the Pirates to take a flier on Solomon. Baseball America ranked him the #19 prospect in Houston’s system at their midseason update, noting that his five-pitch mix, command and durability give him the tools to potentially become a back-end starter in the big leagues. For a team that’s well out of contention and clearly focused on the future, it’s fairly logical to give Solomon a roster spot and see if he can flourish, especially now that he’ll be away from the PCL. This is Solomon’s second option year, meaning the Pirates can keep him stashed in the minors for the rest of this year and another campaign as long as he continues to hang onto a spot on the 40-man. The rotation is also fairly wide open, currently composed of Roansy Contreras, JT Brubaker, Mitch Keller, Bryse Wilson and Johan Oviedo. All of those guys are still works in progress to varying degrees, with none of them having reached their 29th birthday or 300 MLB innings pitched.

As for Holderman, 26, he was placed on the IL August 26 due to shoulder soreness. The Bucs evidently don’t expect him back this season since this transfer will rule him out beyond the end of the schedule. He made his MLB debut this year with the Mets before going to the Pirates in a trade for Daniel Vogelbach. He will finish his first season with a 3.81 ERA over 28 1/3 innings.

Justice delos Santos of MLB.com tweeted the moves before the official announcement.

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Houston Astros Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Colin Holderman Peter Solomon

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Astros Release Niko Goodrum

By Darragh McDonald | September 3, 2022 at 7:36pm CDT

Utilityman Niko Goodrum has cleared waivers and been released by the Astros, reports Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. He was designated for assignment by the club on Thursday.

Goodrum, 30, had a couple of solid seasons with the Tigers in 2018 and 2019, hitting 28 home runs and stealing 24 bags over that two-year stretch. His overall batting line of .247/.318/.427 was just barely below league average, as evidenced by his 98 wRC+. He played all over the diamond in that time, lining up at every position outside of the battery. He generally got quality marks for his glovework, helping him produce 4.5 wins above replacement total over those two campaigns, in the estimation of FanGraphs.

However, he’s been in a downward spiral since then, which started with a rough campaign in the shortened 2020 season. He hit .184/.263/.335 that year while striking out 38.5% of the time. In 2021, he bounced back a bit but still disappointed. His .214/.292/.359 batting line led to a wRC+ of 81, much better than the 63 from the year before but a drop off from prior seasons. His strikeout rate improved to 32.9% but was still well above the 23.2% league average.

After two straight down years, the Tigers cut bait and non-tendered him. The Astros decided to take a flier on Goodrum by signing him to a $2.1MM contract for 2022. He got into just 15 games with Houston, hitting a dismal .116/.156/.163 and striking out in 51.1% of his plate appearances. He was optioned to the minors and has been dealing with injuries ever since, only getting into 20 minor league games on the year. With active rosters expanding for September, the Astros decided to call up prospects Hunter Brown and Yainer Diaz, bumping Goodrum from the roster in the process.

Goodrum has more than three years of MLB service time, meaning that he would have been able to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. However, only players with more than five years’ service time can do so while retaining the salary they are owed. That could have led to him accepting an assignment to stick with the Space Cowboys, though it now seems to be a moot point. With the club releasing him, they will be on the hook for the approximately $400K left on the deal, while Goodrum will return to the open market and look for his next opportunity.

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Houston Astros Transactions Niko Goodrum

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Every Team’s Initial September Call-Ups

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | September 1, 2022 at 10:59pm CDT

Each season as the calendar flips to September, we see a flurry of transactions around Major League Baseball. Active roster sizes jump from 26 to 28 for the season’s final month, with teams permitted to bring up no more than one additional pitcher. We’ve already covered a host of transactions with 40-man roster implications throughout the day at MLBTR. Here’s a full round-up of teams’ initial September roster moves.

American League West

Houston Astros:

  • Selected contract of RHP Hunter Brown
  • Selected contract of C Yainer Diaz
  • Corresponding moves: IF Niko Goodrum and RHP Peter Solomon designated for assignment

Los Angeles Angels:

  • Selected contract of OF Ryan Aguilar
  • Selected contract of RHP Zack Weiss
  • Corresponding moves: OF Steven Duggar and INF Jose Rojas designated for assignment

Oakland Athletics

  • Selected contract of LHP Ken Waldichuk from Triple-A Las vegas
  • Recalled OF Cody Thomas from Triple-A Las Vegas
  • Corresponding move: RHP David McKay designated for assignment

Seattle Mariners

  • Reinstated LHP Matthew Boyd from 60-day injured list
  • Recalled OF Taylor Trammell from Triple-A Tacoma
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Texas Rangers

  • Selected contract of RHP Jesus Tinoco from Triple-A Round Rock
  • Recalled OF Nick Solak from Triple-A Round Rock
  • Corresponding move: Transferred RHP Josh Sborz to 60-day injured list

American League Central

Chicago White Sox

  • Recalled OF Adam Haseley from Triple-A Charlotte
  • Recalled RHP Matt Foster from Triple-A Charlotte
  • Corresponding move: None required

Cleveland Guardians

  • Recalled SS Ernie Clement from Triple-A Columbus
  • Reinstated RHP Cody Morris from 60-day injured list
  • Corresponding move: Designated RHP Anthony Castro for assignment

Detroit Tigers

  • Recalled 1B Spencer Torkelson from Triple-A Toledo
  • Selected contract of INF Ryan Kreidler from Triple-A Toledo
  • Corresponding move: Transferred RHP Rony Garcia to 60-day injured list

Kansas City Royals

  • Selected contract of RHP Daniel Mengden from Triple-A Omaha
  • Recalled OF Nate Eaton from Triple-A Omaha
  • Corresponding move: None required

Minnesota Twins

  • Added LHP Austin Davis (previously claimed off waivers from Red Sox) to active roster
  • Selected contract of OF Billy Hamilton from Triple-A St. Paul
  • Corresponding move: Transferred OF Trevor Larnach to 60-day injured list

American League East

Baltimore Orioles

  • Selected contract of 1B Jesus Aguilar from Triple-A Norfolk
  • Recalled LHP DL Hall from Triple-A Norfolk
  • Corresponding move: Designated INF Richie Martin for assignment

Boston Red Sox

  • Recalled C Connor Wong from Triple-A Worcester
  • Selected contract of RHP Eduard Bazardo
  • Corresponding moves: None required

New York Yankees

  • Recalled SS Oswald Peraza from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
  • Activated INF Marwin Gonzalez from paternity list
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Tampa Bay Rays

  • Reinstated RHP Matt Wisler from the 15-day injured list
  • Recalled INF Jonathan Aranda from Triple-A Durham
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Toronto Blue Jays

  • Recalled RHP Casey Lawrence from Triple-A Buffalo
  • Added OF Bradley Zimmer (claimed off waivers from Phillies this week) to active roster
  • Corresponding moves: None required

National League West

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Selected contract of IF Wilmer Difo from Triple-A Reno
  • Reinstated RHP Keynan Middleton and LHP Kyle Nelson from 15-day injured list
  • Corresponding move: Designated RHP Noe Ramirez for assignment

Colorado Rockies

  • Recalled INF Alan Trejo from Triple-A Albuquerque
  • Recalled RHP Chad Smith from Triple-A Albuquerque
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Reinstated LHP Clayton Kershaw from 15-day injured list
  • Recalled 3B Miguel Vargas from Triple-A Oklahoma City
  • Corresponding moves: None required

San Diego Padres

  • Recalled INF Matt Beaty from Triple-A El Paso
  • Recalled RHP Reiss Knehr from Triple-A El Paso
  • Corresponding moves: None required

San Francisco Giants

  • Selected contract of recently-acquired OF Lewis Brinson
  • Recalled IF David Villar from Triple-A Sacramento
  • Corresponding move: Outrighted LHP Jonathan Bermudez to Triple-A Sacramento

National League Central

Chicago Cubs

  • Selected contract of RHP Jeremiah Estrada from Triple-A Iowa
  • Recalled INF David Bote from Triple-A Iowa
  • Corresponding move: Transferred Wade Miley from 15-day injured list to 60-day injured list

Cincinnati Reds

  • Selected contract of 2B/3B Spencer Steer
  • Selected contract of RHP Fernando Cruz
  • Corresponding moves: Transferred INF Mike Moustakas and RHP Jeff Hoffman from 10-day injured list to 60-day injured list

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Recalled RHP Luis Perdomo from Triple-A Nashville
  • Recalled OF Esteury Ruiz from Triple-A Nashville
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Recalled RHP Johan Oviedo from Triple-A Indianapolis
  • Recalled OF Calvin Mitchell from Triple-A Indianapolis
  • Corresponding moves: None required

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Selected contract of OF Ben DeLuzio from Triple-A Memphis
  • Recalled RHP James Naile from Triple-A Memphis
  • Corresponding moves: None required

National League East

Atlanta Braves

  • Reinstated IF Orlando Arcia from 10-day injured list
  • Added recently-claimed RHP Jesse Chavez to active roster
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Miami Marlins*

  • To recall OF Bryan De La Cruz
  • To recall RHP Jeff Brigham
  • Corresponding moves: None required

New York Mets

  • Selected contract of INF Deven Marrero from Triple-A Syracuse
  • Recalled RHP Adonis Medina from Triple-A Syracuse
  • Corresponding move: Designated RHP Connor Grey for assignment

Philadelphia Phillies

  • Selected contract of RHP Vinny Nittoli from Triple-A Lehigh Valley
  • Recalled C Donny Sands from Triple-A Lehigh Valley
  • Corresponding moves: None required

Washington Nationals

  • Recalled C Tres Barrera from Triple-A Rochester
  • Recalled RHP Mason Thompson from Triple-A Rochester
  • Corresponding moves: None required

*Marlins moves reported by Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald (Twitter link)

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Astros Designate Niko Goodrum, Peter Solomon For Assignment

By Anthony Franco | September 1, 2022 at 4:48pm CDT

The Astros announced that utiltiyman Niko Goodrum and right-hander Peter Solomon have been designated for assignment. The moves were necessary to clear a pair of 40-man roster spots for prospects Hunter Brown and Yainer Diaz, both of whom have had their contracts selected to make their major league debuts. Brown’s and Diaz’s promotions were first reported on Monday.

Goodrum signed a $2.1MM free agent deal during Spring Training. The 30-year-old had been non-tendered by the Tigers on the heels of a .214/.292/.359 showing, but Houston took a flier to add him to the bench. Goodrum had posted roughly league average production as Detroit’s primary shortstop between 2018-19, and he offered an intriguing blend of speed, defensive flexibility and some power upside. Swing-and-miss was a concern, but Goodrum was a potential veteran fallback in case rookie shortstop Jeremy Peña faltered in his first look at MLB pitching.

Peña hit the ground running, though, seizing the primary shortstop job out of the gate. Relegated to a reserve role, Goodrum appeared in only 15 MLB games and had an awful showing at the plate. He struck out in 23 of his 45 plate appearances (51.1% rate) and was optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land in the middle of May. The switch-hitter got out to a hot start there, but he landed on the injured list after just two weeks. Goodrum wasn’t reinstated until August 11 and has played in only 13 Triple-A games this season.

The Astros fairly modest investment clearly didn’t pan out as hoped, and they’ve decided to take Goodrum off the roster entirely. He’ll be placed on outright waivers or released in the next week. It’s probable he’ll pass through waivers unclaimed, as any claiming team would take on the approximate $400K left on his contract for the final five weeks of the season. That’s not an especially onerous sum, but it seems unlikely another team would want to assume it with Goodrum amidst a third straight rough campaign.

As a player with more than three years of major league service time, Goodrum would have the right to refuse an outright assignment in favor of minor league free agency if he clears waivers. He has less than five years of MLB service, however, meaning he’d be forfeiting his remaining guaranteed salary to do so. It’s quite possible, then, that he’ll stick in Sugar Land for the stretch run without occupying a 40-man spot.

Solomon, 26, has six MLB appearances under his belt. Those all came out of the bullpen last season, with the right-hander working 14 innings as a long relief arm. He allowed only two runs in that time, but his 10:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio wasn’t especially impressive. Solomon had a much better 26.3% strikeout rate in Triple-A last year, though, and Baseball America named him the #10 prospect in the Astros system entering the 2022 campaign.

BA wrote that Solomon’s five-pitch mix of generally solid offerings, paired with decent control, made him a viable back-of-the-rotation starter. With Houston’s enviable stockpile of starting pitching depth, Solomon has spent all of this season back in Triple-A. He’s worked 97 innings through 23 outings (18 starts) but has a 5.20 ERA that’s his worst at any level as a professional. Last year’s above-average strikeout percentage has fallen to a pedestrian 20.5%, and he’s walking batters at a higher than ideal 10.2% clip. Solomon has still induced ground-balls at an intriguing 47% rate, but his generally middle-of-the-road showing this year squeezed him off the 40-man roster.

Solomon will also land on waivers in the coming days, and it’s possible another team without as much starting pitch depth as Houston has puts in a claim. The Notre Dame product isn’t far removed from being a prospect of some regard, and his pre-2022 track record in the minors was strong. Solomon is also only in his second option year, meaning any team that is willing to devote him a 40-man spot could move him between the majors and Triple-A both this season and next.

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Houston Astros Transactions Hunter Brown Niko Goodrum Peter Solomon Yainer Diaz

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Astros Trade Lewis Brinson To Giants

By Steve Adams | September 1, 2022 at 10:23am CDT

The Giants have acquired outfielder Lewis Brinson in a trade with the Astros, as first indicated on the transactions log at MLB.com. Brinson was eligible to be traded by virtue of the fact that he’s on a minor league deal with Houston and has not, at any point, been on a Major League roster or injured list this season.

[Related: How to Acquire Players After the Trade Deadline]

Once one of the sport’s consensus top prospects, Brinson’s blend of raw power, speed and a plus throwing arm have never been enough to outshine his strikeout issues, minimal walk rate and lack of hard contact. A first-round pick by the Rangers back in 2012, he was traded to the Brewers as the centerpiece in Texas’ acquisition of former All-Star catcher Jonathan Lucroy and then to Miami as the headliner in Milwaukee’s acquisition of 2018 NL MVP Christian Yelich.

Brinson was widely considered to be among baseball’s 30 best prospects from 2016-18, but he’s now appeared in 341 big league games — mostly with the Marlins — and posted just a .199/.248/.323 batting line in 1111 plate appearances. He’s punched out in 28.2% of his Major League plate appearances against just a 5% walk rate, and when he’s made contact, the plus raw power Brinson possesses hasn’t shined through, likely due to his poor pitch selection (career 40.2% chase rate on pitches off the plate). Brinson’s 88.6 mph average exit velocity and 37.1% hard-hit rate are both pedestrian marks that align roughly with the collective league averages over his big league tenure.

All that said, there’s no denying that Brinson has posted strong results in Triple-A this season. Through 364 trips to the plate in Sugar Land, he’s slashed .299/.356/.574 with 22 home runs, 21 doubles, five triples and five steals (in eight tries). He’s still fanned in 28% of his plate appearances, however, and his 7.1% walk rate doesn’t suggest he’s become much more selective at the dish. Brinson has also had comparable Triple-A success in the past (.331/.400/.562 in a similar sample of plate appearances back in 2017).

The Astros seemingly weren’t going to bring Brinson to the big leagues and have several players they’d like to get some playing time in Triple-A, including recently optioned center fielder Jake Meyers. A trade of Brinson to the Giants gives Houston some extra playing time for younger players who are viewed as potential contributors beyond the 2022 season; Brinson would simply have been a free agent at season’s end unless added to the 40-man roster.

For the Giants, Brinson will give them some depth and a potential September call-up to the join the outfield mix. If he indeed reaches the big leagues with San Francisco and shows some signs of improvement against MLB pitching, he’d be controllable for another three years via arbitration. It may be a long shot, but given what’s surely a minimal cost of acquisition — the teams have not yet announced the moves, and the transactions log does not specify a return — there’s little harm in rolling the dice on a former top prospect who won’t turn 29 until next May.

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Previewing Upcoming Opt-Out Decisions And Player Options

By Anthony Franco | August 30, 2022 at 11:59pm CDT

With the offseason approaching, so is the time for players and teams to decide upon any 2023 options in their contracts. MLBTR has taken a look through various option decisions in recent weeks: first with players whose deals contain vesting provisions, then a respective look at the team options in both the American and National Leagues.

Today, we’ll turn our attention to the players’ side. A number of players could hit free agency this winter either by triggering an opt-out clause in their current deal or bypassing a player option for the 2023 campaign. We’ll take a run through those decisions, many of which will have implications at the very top of the free agent market.

Note: All stats referenced are through play Sunday

Elite Potential Free Agents

  • Nolan Arenado, Cardinals 3B (can opt out of final five years and $144MM)

Arenado was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory before 2022, but he’s bolstering his case with the best season of his career. Through 500 plate appearances, he owns a .306/.370/.567 line with 27 home runs. He’s had seasons with that kind of slash line in years past, but they came with the caveat that he’d played half his games at Coors Field. That’s no longer a factor, and it’s easily his best offensive output once one adjusts for the ballpark. Arenado’s 162 wRC+ is the fourth-best mark among qualified hitters.

That kind of offensive production alone would get him in the MVP discussion, but Arenado’s obviously valuable for far more than his bat. One of the best defensive third basemen in MLB history, he’s continued to post elite marks with the glove even as he’s entered his 30s. Arenado is among the top handful of players in the game. While walking away from $144MM wouldn’t be an easy decision, it’d seem the prudent one from a strict financial perspective. Freddie Freeman received six years and $162MM from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that reduced the net present value closer to the $148MM range) headed into his age-32 season. Freeman was coming off a 135 wRC+ platform showing, and he plays a less valuable position. Arenado and his camp could make a strong argument the Freeman contract should represent his floor, and it’s not outlandish to seek a six-year deal at the $35MM annual range Anthony Rendon received from the Angels (which would bring the guarantee to $210MM).

On paper, Arenado’s opt-out decision looks like a slam dunk. There’s at least some amount of uncertainty, though, as he forewent an opt-out opportunity last offseason and told Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch it was “always the plan” to remain in St. Louis long term. Passing on free agency coming off a .255/.312/.494 showing in 2021 is a lot easier than doing so after a career-best year that should make him an MVP finalist. Maybe he’s comfortable enough with the Cardinals he’ll return, but he’d probably be leaving a lot of money on the table to do so. At the very least, he looks to have a case for a renegotiation of his contract with the Cards, which is slated to pay him just $15MM in the final season (2027).

  • Carlos Correa, Twins SS (can opt out of final two years and $70.2MM this offseason; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Correa opts in this winter)

Regarded by many (MLBTR included) as the top free agent in last winter’s class, Correa reportedly turned down at least one ten-year offer early in the offseason in search of a guarantee that rivaled the $341MM Francisco Lindor had received from the Mets last April. That proposal seemingly never came, and Correa reversed course in Spring Training. He signed a shocking three-year deal with the Twins that guaranteed him the largest annual salary ($35.1MM) for a free agent position player and afforded the opportunity to retest the market in either of the next two offseasons via opt-out.

Conventional wisdom was that Correa was sure to trigger his first opt-out and make another run at a long-term deal in a winter unaffected by a lockout. That still seems likely, although he hasn’t resoundingly made the case for teams to be more willing to approach the Lindor range that they had been. He’s having a similar offensive season as he did during his final year with the Astros. After posting a .279/.366/.485 showing his last year in Houston, Correa is hitting .276/.355/.439 over 440 plate appearances with Minnesota. His raw power production is down, but that’s not quite as alarming when considering the leaguewide slugging percentage has dropped from .411 to .395. Perhaps of greater concern is that the elite defensive marks that garnered Correa a Gold Glove last season are unanimously down, ranging anywhere from below-average (-2 Outs Above Average) to solid (+4 Defensive Runs Saved, +1 Ultimate Zone Rating).

There’s no question Correa’s an excellent player having a very good season. Yet he’s not likely to wind up a top five finisher in MVP balloting as he did in 2021. He’d top a $200MM guarantee on the open market, but he’s unlikely to reach the kind of money he anticipated last offseason. Could he return to Minnesota (where he’s by all accounts very happy) for one more year and look to trigger his post-2023 opt-out after hopefully putting up MVP-caliber numbers? That feels unlikely, but he’s already bet on himself once and would only be entering his age-29 season if he put off opting out for a year.

  • Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox SS (can opt out of final three years and $60MM)

Bogaerts has been the Red Sox’s everyday shortstop since 2014, but his time in Boston could be nearing its end. He and the club didn’t make progress in extension talks this spring, and he’s a lock to opt out and top $60MM on the open market barring a catastrophic injury. One of the game’s top offensive shortstops, Bogaerts is amidst another strong season. He carries a .303/.372/.448 line through 508 plate appearances. His slugging output is below where it was from 2018-21, but he consistently gets on base and has a strong pre-2022 track record from a power perspective.

One can quibble about certain aspects of Boagerts’ profile. In addition to this year’s slugging dip, he’s traditionally rated as a below-average defender. Even with generally solid defensive metrics this season, clubs will probably have some question whether he’ll eventually need to move to second or third base. Those are nitpicks for whether Bogaerts would be a worthwhile investment in the $180MM – $200MM range, though. A 30-year-old shortstop with an elite durability track record and a .299/.370/.478 line since the start of 2020, he’s certainly going to shatter $60MM even if the market takes a relatively pessimistic view of his long-term projection.

  • Jacob deGrom, Mets RHP (can opt of final year and $33.5MM this offseason)

There’s no suspense with this one, as deGrom has publicly maintained his plan to opt out for months. That’s in spite of elbow/shoulder injuries that kept him from throwing a major league pitch between July 2021 and this August. With only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal (plus a 2024 club option that’d go into effect if he doesn’t opt out this winter), that’s been a pretty easy call. To the extent there may have been any lingering doubts, deGrom has silenced them with his first five starts since returning from the injured list. He’s looked like his vintage self, averaging 99.3 MPH on his fastball while posting a laughable 46:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 29 1/3 innings. On an inning-for-inning basis, he’s the best starting pitcher on the planet.

deGrom’s free agent case will be fascinating. Even if he finishes the season healthy, he’ll have gone three consecutive years without topping 15 starts or 100 innings (although he’s obviously not at fault for the shortened 2020 schedule). What kind of volume a signing team can expect is an open question, particularly as he enters his age-35 season. Yet the upside of a healthy deGrom is through the roof. He’ll receive a multi-year deal that beats the $33.5MM remaining on his current contract. Can he top teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM AAV over a three or even four-year term? Time will tell.

  • Justin Verlander, Astros RHP ($25MM option for 2023)

While we’re on the topic of upper-echelon starting pitchers who are basically certain to opt out, let’s turn to Verlander. The future Hall of Famer triggered a $25MM option for next season by throwing 130 innings, but that’s largely a moot point. Verlander told Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic last week he was likely to opt out if things went as planned down the stretch. It’d have been surprising if he were even considering exercising the option.

Verlander has returned from 2020 Tommy John surgery to lead the major leagues with a 1.84 ERA. He’s striking out 26.5% of opponents and has a strong argument for a third career Cy Young award. He’s also a proven playoff performer and a prototypical ace who eats about as many innings as anyone else in the game. Even heading into his age-40 season, Verlander can try to beat the Scherzer AAV on a multi-year contract.

Verlander did injure his calf in his most recent start, resulting in a placement on the injured list just this afternoon. The Astros announced that an MRI of his calf revealed “fascial disruption, but no muscle fiber disruption” — an extremely specific diagnosis but one that both Verlander and GM James Click touted as good news. Click expressed hope the injury will be short-term, and Verlander suggested that had he sustained damage to the muscle fibers themselves, he’d likely have missed the remainder of the regular season and perhaps part of the postseason.

The manner to which Verlander rebounds will obviously be key in his opt-out scenario, but if he misses only a couple weeks’ time and returns strong for his final regular-season and postseason starts, this opt-out is an easy call.

  • Carlos Rodón, Giants LHP ($22.5MM option for 2023)

We’ll wrap up the trifecta with Rodón, who’s also going to have an easy decision, barring injury. While there was some trepidation about Rodón’s breakout 2021 season — both due to his inconsistent track record before last season and some shoulder soreness and a velocity drop last August — he’s doubled down and looks to have cemented himself among the game’s top ten starters. Rodón has avoided the injured list thus far, and he’s striking out 32.1% of opponents while posting a 2.81 ERA through 25 starts. By topping 110 innings, he earned the right to opt out after this season.

Heading into his age-30 campaign, he should land the nine-figure deal that eluded him last offseason. Between his youth and last two years of production, Rodón has an argument for the largest guarantee of any free agent starter. He won’t get paid at the deGrom or Verlander level on an annual basis, but he could push for six years and look to top $150MM.

Quality Regulars Likely To Opt Out

  • Anthony Rizzo, Yankees 1B ($16MM option for 2023)

Rizzo’s market last offseason seemed a bit underwhelming. The veteran first baseman was coming off two fine but unspectacular seasons, and it looked as if his best days might be behind him with his mid-30s approaching. Rizzo still made plenty of contact and hit the ball hard, but he’d gotten quite pull-oriented and had rough ball-in-play results against an increasing number of defensive shifts. He signed a two-year deal with the Yankees that paid him matching $16MM salaries and allowed him to opt out after this season.

That now looks like an easy call, as Rizzo has bounced back with a year more reminiscent of his peak days with the Cubs. He carries a .223/.337/.480 line and is going to top 30 homers for the first time since 2017. He’s still getting dismal results on balls in play and doesn’t have a particularly impressive batting average, but even that looks as if might turn around next year. It’s widely expected MLB will institute limits on shifting next spring. Few players would stand to benefit more than Rizzo, who’s facing a shift on a whopping 83.5% of his plate appearances according to Statcast. His age and lack of defensive versatility will limit the length of any deal, but he’ll probably beat the $16MM salary over at least a two-year term, even if the Yankees tag him with a qualifying offer.

  • Jurickson Profar, Padres LF ($8.5MM option, $1MM buyout)

The Padres’ signing Profar to a three-year, $21MM deal that allowed him multiple opt-out chances was one of the more eyebrow-raising moves of the 2020-21 offseason. The switch-hitter was coming off a solid 2020 campaign, but that shortened schedule was the first in which he’d posted above-average production. It looked like a misstep when he struggled last year and unsurprisingly forewent his first opt-out clause, but Profar has rewarded the organization’s faith with a career-best showing in 2022.

Through 530 plate appearances, he’s hitting .241/.339/.387 with 12 homers. He’s walking at a robust 12.3% clip while only going down on strikes 15.1% of the time. He looks like a solid regular, and headed into his age-30 season, Profar’s a candidate for another multi-year deal this time around. After major throwing issues as an infielder early in his career, he’s played exclusively left field this year. Profar isn’t a prototypical corner outfield masher, but his plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills should allow him to top the guaranteed money remaining on his current deal.

Starting Pitchers With High Buyouts

  • Taijuan Walker, Mets RHP ($6MM option, $3MM buyout)

Walker signed a $20MM guarantee with the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. The deal was front-loaded but came with a $6MM player option or a $3MM buyout for 2023. Adding a player option allowed the Mets to soften the contract’s luxury tax hit. Because player options are treated as guaranteed money, it technically qualified as a three-year, $20MM deal with a $6.67MM average annual value for CBT purposes. Yet the $3MM gap between the option value and the buyout meant Walker was a virtual lock to opt out, barring injury that made him unable to pitch next season. The Associated Press reports the option has various escalators that could push its value as high as $8.5MM if Walker throws 175 innings this year, but even that figure is modest enough he’s going to decline.

Walker should opt out in search of a multi-year deal, as he’s been a valuable mid-rotation arm for New York. Over 117 1/3 frames, he owns a 3.38 ERA despite a modest 18.3% strikeout rate. His blend of plus control and solid ground-ball rates makes him a candidate for a three-year pact as he heads into his age-30 season. The Mets will have an interesting decision on whether to tag him with a qualifying offer.

  • Jake Odorizzi, Braves RHP ($12.5MM option, $6.25MM buyout)

Like Walker, Odorizzi signed late in the 2020-21 offseason on a deal that locked in the first two seasons and gave the player a third-year option. Odorizzi’s contract with the Astros was similarly structured to facilitate a third-year buyout while diminishing the AAV for luxury tax purposes, although he’s deciding on a bit more money. The option was initially valued at $6.5MM with a $3.25MM buyout, but the Associated Press provided a breakdown of various escalators. The option value would jump by $2MM apiece if Odorizzi reached 20, 25 and 30 appearances between 2021-22 in which he either started the game or worked four-plus innings of relief. The buyout value would spike by $1MM apiece for hitting each of those thresholds.

Odorizzi has already made 41 such appearances over the past two years, so he’s long since maxed out both thresholds. He’ll therefore be deciding between a $12.5MM option to return to the Braves or taking a $6.25MM buyout and heading to free agency. With only a $6.25MM difference between the option value and the buyout, Odorizzi looks like a borderline opt-out case. He owns a 3.90 ERA across 85 1/3 innings this season, although his 18.3% strikeout rate is a few points below league average. He’ll be 33 by next Opening Day, and he didn’t find as robust interest as most expected he would during his last trip through free agency. He’s a quality strike-thrower and a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation starter, but it’s now been three years since he’s missed bats at an above-average rate, and he was traded this summer in a one-for-one swap for an underperforming reliever (Will Smith).

Easy Calls To Return

  • Chris Sale, Red Sox LHP (can opt out of final two years and $55MM)

Sale has the right to pass on the final two years of his extension with the Red Sox this winter, but he certainly won’t do so. He’s made just 11 starts over the past three seasons due to various injuries, including a 2020 Tommy John surgery and a trio of fractures (rib, finger and wrist) this year. Sale has still flashed mid-rotation or better upside in the limited time he’s been on the field, but there’s too much uncertainty with his health to land anywhere near $55MM were he to test the market.

  • Eric Hosmer, Red Sox 1B (can opt out of final three years and $39MM)

Hosmer’s opt-in decision is a no-brainer. Since signing a $144MM contract with the Padres heading into 2018, he’s posted a league average .264/.325/.409 slash line. Paired with his lack of defensive versatility and mixed reviews on his glovework (public metrics have never been as fond of Hosmer as his four Gold Gloves would suggest), he’d probably be limited to one-year offers were he a free agent. The Padres will remain on the hook for virtually all of the money, as they agreed to pay down Hosmer’s deal to the league minimum salary to facilitate his trade to the Red Sox.

  • Jorge Soler, Marlins LF (can opt out of final two years and $24MM; deal also contains post-2023 opt-out if Soler opts in this year)

Soler parlayed a big second half and huge batted ball metrics into a three-year deal with Miami last offseason. His massive raw power hasn’t translated into especially strong results since he’s become a Marlin, however. He’s been a below-average hitter, and it’s now been three years since he was a middle-of-the-order caliber player over a full season. Paired with a limited defensive profile that keeps him in the corner outfield or at designated hitter, he’s been right around replacement level this season. He’s not opting out this year, but a big showing in 2023 could allow him to reconsider the possibility next winter.

  • AJ Pollock, White Sox LF ($11MM option, $5MM buyout)

The White Sox acquired Pollock just before the start of the season, sending Craig Kimbrel to the Dodgers in a surprising one-for-one swap. The hope was that they’d addressed a notable hole in the corner outfield, but Pollock’s production has cratered in Chicago. Just a season removed from a .297/.355/.536 showing in L.A., he’s stumbled to a .237/.284/.363 line through 401 plate appearances with the ChiSox. Even with a fairly modest $6MM gap between the option’s present value and the buyout, Pollock is likely to bypass a trip to free agency after a replacement-level platform season.

The present $11MM option value isn’t fixed, as Pollock’s contract contains escalators that could boost it a bit further. Originally set at $10MM, he’d lock in an extra $1MM for hitting each of 400, 450, 500, 550 and 600 plate appearances this season. He’s already surpassed 400 trips, and the 450 mark is well within range with 34 games remaining. Consistent playing time down the stretch would allow him to reach 500 plate appearances as well, although it’s hard to envision him getting to 550. The most likely outcome is that the option price ends up at $12MM, but anywhere between $11-13MM is viable.

  • Jonathan Schoop, Tigers 2B ($7.5MM option)

Schoop signed a two-year, $15MM extension amidst a productive 2021 season in Detroit. While a defensible enough decision for the Tigers at the time, that hasn’t panned out. The veteran second baseman has a .235 on-base percentage that’s easily the worst in the majors among players with 400+ plate appearances. He’s posted otherworldly defensive marks this season and could well collect a Gold Glove, but the complete lack of production at the dish should make him a lock to exercise his option.

  • Charlie Blackmon, Rockies DH/RF ($12MM option)

Blackmon exercised a 2022 option last season, and he went on the record at the time as saying he’d trigger the 2023 provision as well. There’s no intrigue as to his decision — he’ll be back in Colorado next year — the only question is how much he’ll make. The ’23 option came with a $10MM base value, but ESPN reported it’d escalate by $500K apiece if Blackmon reached 400, 425, 450, 475, 500, and 525 plate appearances in 2022. It’d jump another $1MM apiece at 550 and 575 trips.

The veteran outfielder enters play Tuesday with 490 plate appearances, so he’s already pushed the value to $12MM. Barring injury, he’s a lock to hit at least the 525 PA mark, and he’s quite likely to get all the way to 575. Colorado has 33 games remaining, and Blackmon is only 85 plate appearances (2.76 per game) from maxing out the plate appearance threshold at $15MM. The deal also contained escalators based on MVP finishes which Blackmon will not hit.

Relievers

  • Nick Martinez, Padres RHP (can opt out of final three years and $19.5MM this offseason, $1.5MM buyout; deal also contains opt-out chances after 2023 and 2024 if Martinez opts in)

Martinez signed a four-year, $25.5MM guarantee with San Diego this past winter. That deal contained opt-out chances after each of the first three seasons for the former NPB hurler, but it seems unlikely Martinez will take his first opportunity to return to the open market. He has a strong 3.02 ERA over 92 1/3 innings during his return season in the big leagues, but he’s worked as a swingman for a San Diego team that has quite a bit of rotation depth. Martinez has excelled as a reliever, pitching to a 1.35 ERA while holding opponents to a .208/.258/.295 line in 40 innings. That’s come with a modest 21.5% strikeout rate, though, and he doesn’t brandish the power arsenal teams tend to prioritize late in games.

Entering his age-32 season, Martinez probably wouldn’t find a better deal that the opt-out laden three years and $18MM (after factoring in the buyout price) he’d be bypassing to return to the open market. The Friars have to be happy with their investment considering his excellence out of the bullpen, but the surprisingly strong deal they gave him in the first place makes it hard to see him doing much better elsewhere even on the heels of a quality first season.

  • Andrew Chafin, Tigers LHP ($6.5MM option)

Detroit signed the ever-reliable Chafin late last offseason, and they’ve been rewarded with another excellent year. Through 43 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 2.91 ERA while striking out more than 30% of opponents with an excellent 52.3% ground-ball rate. The market probably undervalued Chafin last winter; it’d be hard to do so again after another very good season. In a vacuum, declining the option and topping $6.5MM in free agency seems likely.

That said, the Tigers decision to not trade Chafin at this summer’s deadline was tied to a belief he could stick around. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press reported shortly before the deadline that Detroit’s proximity to Chafin’s Ohio home could lead him to return in 2023 if he weren’t moved before August 2. That led to a disconnect in his trade value, with the Tigers confident they still possessed a year and a half of his services while other clubs viewed him as an impending free agent. From a strict financial perspective, opting out is the prudent call. Yet the family considerations Petzold noted would make the decision more complicated if Chafin’s priority isn’t simply to maximize his earnings.

  • Robert Suárez, Padres RHP ($5MM option, $1MM buyout)

San Diego added Suárez, who’d never previously pitched in the majors, on the heels of an excellent career closing in Japan. He had a nightmare outing on Opening Day where he dished out free passes to all three batters he faced, but he’s been quite effective since that point. Excluding his first appearance, Suárez owns a 2.36 ERA with a strong 29% strikeout rate in 34 1/3 innings. He’s still had spotty control, but he’s averaging north of 97 MPH on his fastball. He’d only need to beat $4MM on the open market, and something around that rate over a multi-year term feels attainable heading into his age-32 season. A rough final couple months could change the calculus, but Suárez seems likely to retest free agency at the moment.

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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox Colorado Rockies Detroit Tigers Houston Astros MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins Minnesota Twins New York Mets New York Yankees San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals A.J. Pollock Andrew Chafin Anthony Rizzo Carlos Correa Carlos Rodon Charlie Blackmon Chris Sale Eric Hosmer Jacob deGrom Jake Odorizzi Jonathan Schoop Jorge Soler Jurickson Profar Justin Verlander Nick Martinez Nolan Arenado Robert Suarez Taijuan Walker Xander Bogaerts

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