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Astros Acquire Trey Mancini In Three-Team Trade; Jose Siri Dealt From Houston To Rays

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The Astros have landed the offensive upgrade they’d been seeking, acquiring first baseman Trey Mancini from the Orioles as part of a three-team trade. Center fielder José Siri goes from Houston to Tampa Bay, while a trio of pitching prospects also find themselves on the move. The Rays send Seth Johnson to the Orioles, while they move Jayden Murray to Houston. Chayce McDermott heads from the Astros to the Orioles to complete the deal. In order to clear a spot for Siri on the 40-man roster, Tampa Bay designated outfielder Brett Phillips for assignment.

Mancini has a .268/.347/.404 line through 401 plate appearances. He’s connected on just ten home runs, a bit shy of the 21-plus homer pace he posted in every healthy season between 2017-21. Despite the decreased power production, Mancini has an above-average 10% barrel rate and 89.6 MPH average exit velocity that are each in line with his career marks. It seems Mancini’s dip in longballs is more tied to changes in the ball and the Orioles’ deepening of the left field wall than an indication his power has truly taken a step back.

The right-handed hitting Mancini also has a typically solid blend of strikeouts and walks. He’s fanning in 21.4% of his plate appearances, a bit less than league average and among the lower rates of his career. Mancini’s a well-rounded bat who’ll presumably cut into the playing time of Yuli Gurriel. The reigning AL batting champion is a longtime member of the Houston organization, but he has an underwhelming .243/.293/.392 line on the year. Houston has reportedly been on the hunt for offensive upgrades who could supplant Gurriel on the depth chart. While the club was previously tied to Josh Bell and Willson Contreras, they’ve pivoted to Mancini.

It’s another addition to a Houston club that already boasts one of the league’s top lineups. The Astros enter play Monday with a .240/.318/.425 line that translates to offense 13 percentage points better than league average, according to wRC+. Houston’s raw run-scoring total is a bit less impressive, though, as the club ranks 12th in the majors with 461 runs scored.

Mancini has a bit of experience in the corner outfield, but he’s primarily an option at first base or designated hitter. The Astros have Kyle Tucker as their primary right fielder, but left fielder Michael Brantley has been on the injured list for over a month and still has an uncertain recovery timeline. Yordan Álvarez has designated hitter accounted for, leaving first base and perhaps some occasional fill-in work in left as the clearest path to playing time.

For the past few months, Mancini has looked like one of the better bats who might be available this summer. The Orioles, though, have gone 16-7 this month to pull themselves back to .500. Baltimore is within three games of the final Wild Card spot in the American League, seemingly at least raising some questions about how motivated they’d be to deal players off the MLB roster. At least in the case of Mancini, they remain committed to their goal of bolstering the roster for 2023 and beyond, but it’s a move that’s likely to disappoint at least some segment of the clubhouse and fanbase.

Mancini had been a career-long member of the organization, one of the few productive big leaguers to remain on the MLB roster throughout the franchise’s recent rebuild. He’s long been well-regarded in the community, and that’s become particularly true in the wake of his overcoming colon cancer in 2020. He was deservedly named the AL’s Comeback Player of the Year last season.

The 30-year-old Mancini is likely to be a free agent at season’s end, making him a rental pickup for the Astros. He’s playing this year on a $7.5MM salary, around $2.72MM of which is still to be paid out. Houston will assume that tab as well as the $250K buyout on a $10MM mutual option for 2023. (Mutual options are almost never exercised by both player and team, and Mancini seems likely to forego his end in search of a multi-year pact this winter).

Despite being at least vaguely in playoff contention, the Orioles will continue to look towards the future. They’ll add a pair of young arms, neither of whom is going to impact the club in 2022. Johnson is the more well-known of the duo. The 40th overall pick in the 2019 draft, he’s a former college shortstop who has flashed impressive stuff and dominated low level hitters in his limited time on the mound. Baseball America recently ranked him as the #9 prospect in a deep Rays system, praising his mid-upper 90s fastball and a slider that sometimes earns plus-plus grades (a 70 on the 20-80 scale) from evaluators. An excellent athlete, the 23-year-old is generally regarded as a possible mid-rotation starter, although he’s yet to reach Double-A.

Johnson pitched to a 2.88 ERA in 93 2/3 innings at Low-A last season, striking out an excellent 29% of opposing hitters. He’d fanned an even better 37.3% of batters faced through his first seven starts at High-A this year, but he’s been out since May 20 with an injury that’ll reportedly require Tommy John surgery. Johnson will have to be added to the 40-man roster at the end of this season or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft. As he faces an extended injury absence and not especially close to big league readiness, devoting him an offseason 40-man spot could be easier for the O’s than it’d have been a Tampa Bay team with plenty of upper level depth.

The Rays also part ways with Murray, whom they selected in the 23rd round of the 2019 draft. A Dixie State product, the right-hander has made a brief cameo at Triple-A but spent the bulk of the season at Double-A Montgomery. He owns a 2.83 ERA over 16 appearances (15 starts), offsetting a modest 20.5% strikeout rate with a tiny 7.3% walk percentage while inducing grounders on almost half the balls in play against him. He adds a volume strike-thrower and possible back-of-the-rotation arm to the upper levels of the Houston farm system; he’ll have to be added to the 40-man roster this winter or made available in the Rule 5 draft.

In exchange, Tampa Bay bolsters its immediate outfield mix. Siri, 27, is a former top Reds prospect who stalled out towards the end of his time in the Cincinnati system. He’s appeared in the majors in each of the past two seasons since signing a minor league deal with Houston over the 2020-21 offseason. Siri raked in a 21-game stint late last year, but he’s struggled over a longer follow-up this season. Through 196 cumulative plate appearances, he’s hitting .210/.265/.381 with a massive 33.2% strikeout rate as a big leaguer.

At the same time, it’s easy to see why he’s of interest to a Rays team that — even after picking up David Peralta over the weekend — is fairly short-handed in the outfield after losing Manuel Margot, Kevin Kiermaier and Harold Ramírez to injury. Siri has big power and speed, and he’s obliterated Triple-A pitching over 16 games this year. He hit .318/.369/.552 through 397 plate appearances at the minors top level last year, and he can be optioned to Triple-A Durham for the remainder of this season.

That isn’t the case for Phillips, who is out of minor league options. A gifted defensive outfielder, Phillips appeared in 75 games for Tampa Bay this season across all three spots on the grass. He’s hitting just .147/.225/.250 with a strikeout rate north of 40%, though, and the struggles at the plate became too much for the Tampa Bay front office to ignore. The Rays can deal Phillips over the next day, or he’ll find himself on waivers. He’s making $1.4MM, but his power, defense and affable clubhouse presence could lead another team to take a shot on him as a depth option.

McDermott, meanwhile, is the final piece of the deal from the Orioles perspective. A fourth-round pick out of Ball State last year, the 23-year-old righty has spent the season in High-A. He has a huge 35.4% strikeout rate through 72 innings there, starting 10 of his 19 outings. That has come with an alarming 13.4% walk rate, though. Baseball America recently named him the #6 prospect in a thin Houston farm system, praising his 92-96 MPH fastball and a pair of possible above-average breaking pitches in his slider and curveball.

Dan Connolly of the Athletic first reported Mancini was being traded to Houston. Roch Kutbako of MASNsports.com reported the Orioles were receiving multiple pitching prospects. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was first to report it was a three-team trade that would send Siri to Tampa Bay; Rosenthal was also first to report Johnson going to the Orioles. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported the Rays’ designation of Phillips for assignment. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first with Baltimore’s acquisition of McDermott.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Astros Showing Interest In Christian Vazquez, Ji-Man Choi

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The Astros have reportedly been in the mix for upgrades at catcher and at first base, prominently connected to both Willson Contreras and Josh Bell. However, while those two represent the arguable top options at those respective positions, the asking price on both has been high, and Houston is exploring alternative options. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic writes this morning that the ’Stros “are focusing more on Vazquez” than Contreras at this point, adding that they’ve also expressed interest in Rays first baseman/designated hitter Ji-Man Choi.

Vazquez, 32 in three weeks, is a more straightforward trade candidate than Choi. The longtime Red Sox backstop is playing out the final season of a contract extension he inked several years ago and will be a free agent at season’s end. Boston is sitting in the AL East cellar at present. Although the Sox are still just 3.5 games back for the final American League Wild Card spot, they’d need to leapfrog four teams to get there. Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom isn’t expected to be an all-out seller, but he’s likely to listen to offers on veteran rentals such as Vazquez and designated hitter J.D. Martinez.

The veteran Vazquez is enjoying a quality seasons on both sides of the ball. He’s hitting .282/.327/.432 (111 wRC+) with eight homers, 20 doubles and a 16% strikeout rate — the second-lowest rate of his career. He’s also notched a +5 Defensive Runs Saved mark and boasts a 30% caught-stealing rate. He’s been narrowly below average in terms of framing, according to both FanGraphs and Statcast, but it’s been a strong all-around year for Vazquez, whose $7MM salary is plenty affordable for most teams — particularly a deep-pocketed club like the Astros. The Sox are reportedly seeking MLB-ready help even in return for their rental pieces, however, which surely complicates matters for the Astros and other interested parties.

Choi, who just turned 31 a couple months ago, is a bit more of an outside-the-box trade candidate. The Rays are currently in possession of that final AL Wild Card spot which the Red Sox are chasing, and the left-handed-hitting Choi has been an important part of their lineup. In 296 plate appearances, Choi is hitting .255/.355/.415  with eight home runs, 16 doubles and a hefty 13.5% walk rate. He has a lengthy track record of thumping right-handed pitching, evidenced by a .252/.359/.464 batting line when holding the platoon advantage.

Lefties have given Choi a harder time. He’s hitting .325 against them this season, granted, but that’s come in a tiny sample of 43 plate appearances. His success against southpaws in this year’s tiny sample is plenty suspect; he’s punched out in 37.2% of his plate appearances against them and is sporting a wholly unsustainable .520 BABIP against same-handed opponents. In all likelihood, he’d fall into a platoon in Houston, yielding at-bats against lefties to Astros stalwart Yuli Gurriel.

Choi is an atypical trade candidate not only due to his status as a productive hitter on a current playoff team but also because he’s controlled beyond the current season. He’s earning an affordable $3.2MM salary this season and would earn one final raise in arbitration this winter before reaching free agency following the 2023 campaign. The Rays, however, have affordable options to step in for Choi at first base, including Yandy Diaz, Harold Ramirez and Isaac Paredes. Top prospect Curtis Mead looks Major League ready after ripping through Double-A and Triple-A this season, too. Furthermore, Tampa Bay has a knack for finding and maximizing the production of undervalued platoon bats of this nature. Choi himself was acquired from the Brewers in a low-profile trade for utilityman Brad Miller in 2018 and has been a fixture in the Rays’ lineup since.

If the Rays were to trade Choi or any other member of their current roster, it surely wouldn’t be a sign that they’re pivoting to a classic “seller” mindset. Tampa Bay walks this line every year, regularly trading quality big leaguers who are inching closer to free agency while simultaneously adding some help in other swaps. They flipped reliever Diego Castillo to the Mariners at last year’s deadline, for instance, and they’re less than 48 hours removed from acquiring veteran outfielder David Peralta from Arizona.

Cardinals Interested In Jake Odorizzi

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Frankie Montas has been the name most attached to the Cardinals in their pitching search, yet St. Louis has also been exploring other rotation options.  The Cards and Astros have discussed the possibility of a trade involving veteran righty Jake Odorizzi, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.  In addition, such names as Noah Syndergaard and Nathan Eovaldi were “at least discussed internally” by the Cardinals’ front office as possible targets.

Odorizzi has been on the Cards’ radar for some time, as the club considered signing the right-hander as a free agent during the 2020-21 offseason.  Instead, Odorizzi signed a two-year deal with Houston worth $23.25MM in guaranteed money, with the 2023 season also covered via a $6.25MM player option with a $3.25MM buyout.  A variety of injuries have limited Odorizzi to 157 2/3 innings over his two years with the Astros, but he has posted a 4.22 ERA despite only a 19.5% strikeout rate.  The righty has relied on above-average walk rates and (in 2022) an outstanding hard-contact rate to retire batters.

Acquiring Odorizzi would have some echoes of the Cards’ deadline moves last year, when they landed veterans Jon Lester, J.A. Happ, and Wade LeBlanc in the wake of several rotation injuries.  Odorizzi at least has much better bottom-line results than that trio did when St. Louis swung those trades, and yet the Cardinals’ hope in a turn-around was rewarded, as all three pitched well and helped the Cards reach the wild card game.

St. Louis fans weren’t overly impressed with the club’s strategy at last year’s deadline, and given all the other big names linked to the Cards in trade rumors this summer, landing “only” Odorizzi to address the rotation could be again seen as underwhelming.  However, since the A’s are known to be asking for a ton for Montas and surely the Angels and Red Sox would want a good return even for rentals like Syndergaard or Eovaldi, Odorizzi could be a decent Plan C-type of option if the Cards feel the other asking prices are too high…..or, if the Cardinals direct their prospect capital towards acquiring someone like Juan Soto.

It is also possible that the Cardinals could land more than one of these pitchers, as the club has an increasingly acute need for rotation depth.  Beyond Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante, Dakota Hudson (activated off the 15-day injured list today) and Matthew Liberatore comprise the current starting five, as Jack Flaherty is still weeks away from returning from shoulder problems.

Steven Matz was supposed to provide some help when he returned from his own IL stint last week, except the left-hander tore his MCL in his return start.  It isn’t known yet if Matz will need surgery, yet President of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Goold and other reporters today that there is only a “sliver” of a chance Matz pitches again in 2022, and it will be “very, very difficult to get him back this year.”

Turning to the Astros’ situation, trading Odorizzi would seem like an unusual move for a World Series contender that theoretically would want as much pitching depth as possible for a deep run through October.  However, the Astros could feel they have such depth already, with a six-man rotation on the active roster, Lance McCullers Jr. on his way back from the 60-day IL, and some other young arms in reserve in the minors.

To that end, Houston has reportedly been willing to discuss trades of controllable pitchers with other teams.  Odorizzi doesn’t exactly fit that description, of course, but it would seem like the Astros would be a lot more open to moving a veteran rather than a longer-term rotation piece like Cristian Javier or Jose Urquidy.

Astros’ Jose Siri Drawing Trade Interest

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The Astros are receiving trade interest in outfielder Jose Siri, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who adds that “a number of teams” have explored trading for the 27-year-old. Each of the Phillies, Marlins and Brewers have been seeking center field help, Rosenthal notes, though he doesn’t explicitly indicate that any of the three have had substantive talks with Houston.

Interest in Siri comes from other clubs at a time when the Astros are apparently seeking more proven options in center field, but it’s plenty understandable if other clubs would look at Siri’s strong MLB debut in 2021 and his outstanding Triple-A track record and hope he can emerge as a valuable long-term piece if they can land him in a deal with Houston. While he’s something of a late bloomer, having turned 27 just six days ago, Siri hit .304/.347/.609 with four homers and three steals in a tiny sample of 49 plate appearances during last year’s MLB debut. This season, he struggled to a .178/.238/.304 slash in a larger (but still relatively small) sample of 147 trips to the plate.

Houston has twice optioned Siri to Triple-A Sugar Land this season (most recently one week ago), and in the 13 games he’s played there, he’s ripped eight home runs and batted .293/.354/.828 in 65 plate appearances. That eye-popping production from the right-handed-hitting slugger is further backed up by a huge .318/.369/.553 slash through 394 plate appearances with Houston’s top affiliate last season. Overall, he’s played in 107 games and tallied 462 plate appearances with the Astros’ Triple-A club, crushing 24 homers and swiping 25 bags in that time. Siri also posted through-the-roof defensive numbers in 315 innings of center field work for Houston this season: 8 Defensive Runs Saved, a 6.6 Ultimate Zone Rating and 7 Outs Above Average.

While that combination of minor league production and exceptional defensive grades at the big league level is quite appealing, Siri’s strikeout woes are the proverbial elephant in the room. He’s had issues making contact since reaching the Double-A level with Cincinnati back in 2018. Siri punched out in 32.2% of his plate appearances that season and has continued to whiff in more than 30% of his plate appearances at nearly every stop since. He’s fanned “just” 16 times in Triple-A this year (24.6%), but Siri has fallen victim to a strikeout in one-third of his MLB plate appearances and in 30.9% of his total Triple-A plate appearances.

There’s extra reason for the Astros to consider offers on Siri, given that he’s in his final minor league option season. As a win-now club, Houston understandably seeks an immediate contributor in center, and while it’s tempting to say they should be patient with Siri given the power/speed/defense blend, he’ll have to be carried on the Major League roster next year or else be exposed to waivers. Considering his raw tools and Triple-A production (and the current trade interest), it’s quite likely he’d be claimed by another team if things were to reach that point, so extracting some value for Siri right now makes sense if the Astros can find a deal to their liking.

Siri has not yet accrued even one year of Major League service, though if he spends enough time on a big league roster down the stretch, he could still get there. Even if he does reach that point, he could still be controlled another five years beyond the current campaign (or six more if he spends another 17 days in the minors this year).

Astros Willing To Listen To Offers On Controllable Starting Pitching

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July 28: Houston would seek center field and/or catching help that is controlled beyond the current season in any deals for Urquidy or other cost-controlled starting pitching, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. As Rosenthal points out, many of the obvious cost-controlled options at those positions (e.g. Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds, Athletics catcher Sean Murphy) play on teams that would not necessarily be targeting arb-eligible players with only three seasons of control remaining.

Rosenthal posits the Orioles as a potential partner whose current goals could align with those of the Astros, though Urquidy alone seems unlikely to be sufficient to pry Cedric Mullins loose. I’d add that it bears at least some mention that Baltimore GM Mike Elias knows the Houston system better than most rivals, stemming back to his roots as a scouting director and assistant GM with the ’Stros.

Speculatively speaking, both the Cardinals and Mariners have outfield depth and a need for rotation help. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are deeper in catchers than most clubs and have been on the lookout for potential rotation additions.

July 27: “Controllable starters” is becoming one of the most commonly repeated phrases of the 2022 trade deadline, as far more young arms than expected are being made available to teams in need of starting pitching. ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds the Astros to the growing list of clubs that will at least entertain offers for young, cost-controlled members of their starting rotation, citing multiple GMs who’ve had trade conversations with the Houston front office. Righty Jose Urquidy would appear the likeliest of the bunch to change hands, per the report.

A trade dealing from the Houston rotation isn’t a given, but the ’Stros have plenty of depth to withstand such a move if it means helping them address other areas of need. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Cristian Javier, Jake Odorizzi and Urquidy give them six viable starters on the big league roster, and that’s not even including Lance McCullers Jr., who’s on a rehab assignment and trending toward a return to the Major League mound.

Houston also has top prospect Hunter Brown tearing through Triple-A lineups, and righty Brandon Bielak (who has a bit of MLB experience already) is pitching well in Triple-A Sugar Land as well. Former top prospect Forrest Whitley, meanwhile, recently returned from a lengthy stay on the injured list and is building up in Sugar Land, too.

It’s unlikely that Houston would move any member of its current rotation for pure prospects — not when the team has a firm grip on the American League West and appears poised for another potentially deep playoff run. Flipping an arm they control for multiple seasons, however, could be a means of bringing in some help at first base, in the outfield and/or behind the plate. The Astros don’t know when or whether backup catcher Jason Castro and left fielder Michael Brantley will return — Castro from a knee injury and Brantley from a shoulder issue (neither of which the team has elaborated upon to the public). Manager Dusty Baker told reporters about a half-hour ago that Brantley, who’s been on the injured list since June 26, has yet to even swing a bat (Twitter link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

Turning to the list of plausible names for the Astros to consider, it’s fairly logical that Urquidy might top the list. Garcia was the American League Rookie of the Year runner-up in 2021 and is controlled four more seasons — the most of any current member of the rotation — making him tougher to move. Each of Urquidy, Javier and Valdez are under team control through the 2025 season, but Valdez has stepped up as Houston’s No. 2 starter behind Verlander. Javier, meanwhile, is striking out nearly twice as many hitters as Urquidy and allowing home runs at a much lower rate (0.97 HR/9 to Urquidy’s 1.52).

None of that is to say that Urquidy, 27, is expendable or ineffective. To the contrary, he’s a former Top-100 prospect who’s appeared in parts of four MLB seasons now and pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA in each. He’s currently sporting a solid 3.93 ERA through 100 2/3 innings (18 starts). Urquidy is not and never has been an overpowering pitcher, evidenced by this year’s 18.2% strikeout rate and a career 19.8% mark in that regard, but he has some of the best command of any starter in the Majors. Urquidy is tied for the 12th-lowest walk rate among qualified big league starters (5.2%), and he’s tenth-best among 114 starters with at least 250 innings, dating back to his 2019 MLB debut.

Urquidy will be arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, as will Javier. (Valdez is in the same service class but already hit arbitration as a Super Two player.) His salary should only jump into the $2-3MM range for the 2023 campaign, and he ought to remain relatively affordable through 2025, his final year of team control.

It bears emphasizing that a trade shouldn’t necessarily be seen as likely. Houston is surely taking an opportunistic approach to the depth they’ve cultivated in the rotation, but the Astros also will surely have a high asking price on Urquidy or any of their other young starters — and understandably so. For as deep as the group looks right now, pitching depth is often fleeting, and the Astros can’t know for certain what the future holds for either Verlander or Odorizzi, both of whom have player options for the 2023 season (assuming Verlander throws another 13 2/3 innings to reach 130 frames on the year, that is).

For now, Urquidy can be lumped in with a mounting number of quality arms who could potentially be acquired for a decent return and controlled by his new club for several seasons. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, while the Guardians are willing to listen on Zach Plesac. They join long-obvious trade candidates like the Reds’ Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle, and the Athletics’ Frankie Montas, as names to watch in advance of next Tuesday’s 6 pm ET trade deadline.

Astros Exploring Catching Market, Have Discussed Willson Contreras With Cubs

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The Astros have been linked to Josh Bell a few times in recent days, but the Nationals first baseman isn’t the only rental bat on Houston’s radar. Jeff Passan of ESPN reports that the Astros have been in contact with the Cubs about catcher Willson Contreras.

More broadly, Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this morning that Houston is looking into ways to add to the catching corps before next Tuesday’s trade deadline. The Astros have been without veteran backup Jason Castro for nearly a month, and manager Dusty Baker indicated over the weekend that Castro wasn’t progressing as hoped (via team field reporter Julia Morales). That has left the club relying on rookie Korey Lee to back up Martín Maldonado. Lee is one of the better prospects in the Houston farm system, but he’s struggled this year in his first extended crack at Triple-A.

Of course, there are myriad ways in which the Houston front office could address the catching group. If they’re committed to keeping Maldonado as the primary backstop, then a veteran depth option in the Tucker Barnhart mold could suffice. The Tigers would certainly be open to moving the impending free agent for a minimal prospect return.

Contreras, on the other hand, would require sending significant talent back to Chicago. He’s a virtual lock to change uniforms within the next week. Because MLB and the Players Association didn’t agree to an international draft, the qualifying offer system for free agents is set to remain in place. The Cubs could theoretically hold Contreras and recoup a draft pick once he signs elsewhere next winter, but they’re far likelier to land a more valuable return via trade.

Maldonado, who has started 70 of Houston’s 97 games behind the plate, is beloved in the clubhouse for his management of the pitching staff. He’s never been a good hitter, though, and his .237 on-base percentage is the fifth-lowest mark among 260 hitters with 200+ plate appearances on the season. Maldonado has also rated as a below-average pitch framer and overall defender in the eyes of public metrics this season. The Astros clearly believe he brings immense intangible value, but there’s room on paper for an upgrade.

Of course, if the Astros want to keep Maldonado behind the plate, they could make room for Contreras’ bat at other positions. The Cubs backstop has long been regarded as a bat-first catcher. He’s made strides from a pitch framing perspective in recent seasons, improving from one of the league’s worst-rated framers to roughly average in that regard. Passan notes, however, that some contenders have expressed concern about Contreras’ ability to manage a new pitching staff quickly — not an uncommon refrain for catchers who are dealt midseason. Contreras is talented enough a hitter than an acquiring team could plug him in more frequently at first base and/or designated hitter than at catcher for the season’s final few months while still upgrading their offense.

Houston has Yordan Álvarez at DH, although he’s seen sporadic time in left field as well. The clearer path for an offensive upgrade is at first base, where Yuli Gurriel has a disappointing .234/.287/.384 season line. Bell would be a more obvious direct replacement for Gurriel, but it’s not out of the question teams could eye Contreras — owner of a career-best .258/.373/.470 slash — as an option to rotate between DH, first base and catcher rather than as a full-time backstop.

The Astros aren’t the only team in contact with the Cubs about Contreras, of course. The Mets have been tied to him for a few weeks, and both Passan and Pat Ragazzo of Sports Illustrated suggest today he remains a viable target for New York. Ragazzo reports that New York and the Cubs have discussed trade frameworks involving Contreras and Cubs closer David Robertson in a package deal that would send multiple prospects back to Chicago. Ragazzo adds that Francisco Álvarez and Brett Baty — the top two prospects in the system in Baseball America’s most recent Top 100 — would be off the table. The only other Mets farmhand to make BA’s top 100 is outfielder Alex Ramirez, but players like Matt Allan, Ronny Mauricio and Mark Vientos have been in the recent Top 100 mix for various prospect outlets.

Brewers Among Teams Interested In Josh Bell

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The Brewers are among the growing list of teams with interest in Nationals first baseman Josh Bell, reports SNY’s Andy Martino. Both Martino and Jeff Passan of ESPN suggest that Bell could be among the first notable names to change hands, perhaps sooner than later. Getting a Bell deal completed in the near future would give Washington general manager Mike Rizzo additional time to focus on the deluge of trade interest he’s receiving in star outfielder Juan Soto.

Milwaukee joins the Mets and Astros as teams known to have interest in Bell, a 29-year-old switch-hitter who’s enjoying a .302/.388/.492 batting line in his final season before reaching free agency. Martino reported yesterday that there has not been substantial momentum in talks between the Mets and the Nationals regarding Bell. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, meanwhile, reports that Bell remains a “priority” for the Astros as they look to upgrade amid Yuli Gurriel’s struggles.

For the Brewers, Bell would serve as both an offensive and defensive upgrade at first base over Rowdy Tellez. Bell has significantly improved as a defensive option at first base in recent years, going from a bottom-five ranked defender to a player who now has slightly above-average ratings at the position. It’s possible that the Brewers’ internal evaluation still favors Tellez, but both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average peg Bell as the better option.

That’s not to say that a Bell acquisition would push Tellez out of a job, but Bell could very well result in Tellez spending more time at designated hitter. A Bell-to-Brewers scenario could prove more worrisome for veteran Andrew McCutchen, who hasn’t performed up to expectations since signing a one-year deal and has uncharacteristically been far worse against left-handed opponents than against righties. Were McCutchen handling lefties as he typically does, a Tellez/McCutchen platoon at DH would appear formidable. That’s not the case, though, as McCutchen’s .230/.281/.402 slash against lefties leaves plenty to be desired.

Bell would give Milwaukee (or any other club) a legitimate middle-of-the-order presence against both lefties and righties. While he’s been better as a left-handed batter (.311/.402/.493), the longtime Pirates slugger has still crushed lefties at a .287/.362/.488 clip this season. Bell had a rough first month of the 2021 season but has generally been outstanding since, hitting at a combined .289/.375/.497 with just a 15.1% strikeout rate and an 11.6% walk rate in his past 920 trips to the plate. Bell hits the ball on the ground more than he should (50.9% in that stretch of 920 PAs), but he’s also seen one in five fly-balls he’s hit during that time leave the yard.

The Nats also figure to have several relievers available, with each of Steve Cishek, Carl Edwards Jr. and Kyle Finnegan a candidate to change hands prior to next Tuesday’s deadline. It’s conceivable that the Brewers or any other team with interest in Bell might also try to pry a bullpen arm loose, though Bell should have sufficient value to net a notable prospect or two on his own.

Yesterday’s MLB/MLBPA failure to reach an agreement on an international draft means that the qualifying offer system will remain in place, meaning the Nats will need to be convinced that whichever prospect(s) they receive in exchange for Bell would outweigh the value of a value of a compensatory pick in the 2023 amateur draft. Bell has been a bargain on a $10MM salary this season, so it stands to reason that the Nats would have little hesitation in making a qualifying offer in the $19MM range in order to ensure that they receive draft compensation when he departs as a free agent. That’s an unlikely scenario, given trade interest in Bell, but it’s worth noting that yesterday’s outcome played into the favor of the Nats and a few other non-contenders who are peddling rental players that look like obvious QO candidates this offseason.

Draft Signings: Phillies, Red Sox, Yankees, Astros, A’s, Blue Jays

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We’ll use this post to round up some of the more notable recent draft signings:

  • The Phillies announced they’ve signed #17 overall pick Justin Crawford. Jim Callis of MLB.com reports (Twitter link) that the lefty-hitting outfielder will receive a $3.8948MM signing bonus, a hair above the pick’s slot value. Crawford, the son of four-time All-Star Carl Crawford, was ranked by Baseball America as the #18 prospect in the class. A product of a Nevada high school, Crawford is an excellent runner who’s regarded as a possible plus defender in center field. The 6’3″ outfielder is seen as a hit-over-power offensive player. He’d been committed to LSU.
  • The Red Sox agreed to a deal with #24 selection Mikey Romero, as first reported by Chad Jennings of the Athletic (on Twitter). It’s a $2.3MM deal to convince the infielder to bypass a commitment to LSU. A left-handed hitter from a California high school, Romero was ranked the #54 prospect in the class by BA, explaining why his deal comes in a fair bit shy of the pick’s $2.98MM slot value. BA praises his bat-to-ball skills but notes that his slender frame leads to below-average raw power.
  • The Yankees announced agreement with #25 pick Spencer Jones. Callis reports (Twitter link) that he’ll sign for slot value at $2.8808MM. The class’s #49 prospect according to Baseball America, Jones is a 6’7″ outfielder from Vanderbilt. The left-hander posted a massive .370/.460/.644 showing with 12 home runs and 14 stolen bases through 272 plate appearances during his final season with the Commodores. Jones stuck out at a lofty 23.5% rate, an unsurprising development for a player of his size, but his combination of power and athleticism got him into the late first round.
  • Astros first-round pick Drew Gilbert has signed, according to a club announcement. Callis reports (Twitter link) he’s landed a $2.5MM bonus, a little under the $2.62MM value of the 28th overall pick. A left-handed hitting center fielder from the University of Tennessee, Gilbert was the #24 prospect in the class, per BA. The 5’9″ outfielder has a well-rounded offensive skillset and a good chance to stick in center field, and he’s coming off a .362/.455/.673 showing with more walks than strikeouts in a breakout junior season for the Vols.
  • The A’s are in agreement on an overslot deal with 2nd-round pick Henry Bolte, Callis reports (on Twitter). He’ll receive a $2MM bonus to sway him out of a commitment to Texas. A 6’3″ outfielder from the Bay Area, Bolte entered the draft as the #42 prospect in Baseball America’s estimation. He’s regarded as one of the higher-upside players in the class, showing an enviable combination of power, speed and center defense. However, the right-handed hitter also comes with question marks about the high amount of swing-and-miss in his game.
  • The Blue Jays went overslot with a $2MM bonus for supplemental second-round pick Tucker Toman, Callis reports (on Twitter). That’s more than double the $846,900 slot value associated with the #77 overall selection. That reflects a loftier prospect status, as the 18-year-old infielder from a South Carolina high school had been the #40 player in the class, according to BA. A 6’1″ infielder, Toman is a switch-hitter with a chance for a strong hit/power combination, although it’s questionable whether he can stay on the dirt or will eventually have to move to the corner outfield. Like Crawford and Romero, he’ll forego a commitment to LSU and start his pro career.

Injury Notes: Alvarez, Reynolds, Garcia, Witt

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Yordan Alvarez wasn’t in today’s Astros lineup, as the slugger is still dealing with soreness in his right hand.  The same injury already sent Alvarez to the 10-day injured list for a minimum stay prior to the All-Star break, and medical tests during that IL stint didn’t reveal any structural damage.  Still, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle) that the Astros will be giving Alvarez some occasional time off due to this seemingly lingering injury.  “We knew we were going to have to give him a blow every now and then, but he was sore and we don’t want it to get more sore,” Baker said.

With two homers in 13 plate appearances in his four games since returning from the IL, Alvarez didn’t seem too hampered by this recurring hand problem, though some additional rest could certainly prevent a more severe injury.  The last thing Alvarez and the Astros would want is a lengthier IL trip interrupting both Alvarez’s spectacular season and his potential availability for the playoffs.  Alvarez is hitting a whopping .307/.407/.668 over 329 PA in 2022, leading the majors in both slugging percentage and OPS.

More injury updates from around baseball….

  • Bryan Reynolds told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that he is aiming to return from the 10-day injured list during the Pirates’ upcoming two-games series with the Cubs on Monday and Tuesday.  A left oblique strain sent Reynolds to the 10-day injured list on July 11, though it seems as though he has avoided the lengthy absence that can often come from oblique problems.  In fact, the IL stint may have prevented a longer-term issue, as Reynolds said the injury “had been bothering me for a few series before.  It got to the point where I needed to say something.  I didn’t want to make it worse.”  While his return prior to the trade deadline will inevitable spur on more rumors, there isn’t much expectation that the Pirates will actually deal Reynolds, unless another club meets Pittsburgh’s huge demands.
  • It looks as though Rony Garcia is heading back to the injured list, as Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told reporters (including MLB.com’s Jason Beck) that Garcia felt bicep discomfort during today’s start.  Garcia was only just activated from a three-week IL stint (due to shoulder soreness) to pitch today, but the biceps issue forced Garcia from the game after only 2 2/3 innings.  Hinch said Garcia will be shut down for the time being, creating yet another vacancy in Detroit’s injury-riddled rotation.  Five other starters are already on the IL with temporary or season-ending injuries, plus Eduardo Rodriguez is still on the restricted list.  Today’s abbreviated outing pushed Garcia’s ERA to 4.59 over 51 innings for the Tigers this season.
  • Bobby Witt Jr. is day-to-day with right hamstring tightness, as the Royals made what the club described as a “precautionary” removal of the star rookie after the first inning of today’s game.  Tests didn’t reveal any significant damage, Witt told the Kansas City Star’s Lynn Worthy and other reporters, but it would seem likely that the Royals will give Witt a game or two off to heal up.  Heralded as one of baseball’s top prospects, Witt has hit .258/.301/.459 over his first 379 PA in the big leagues.

Astros Among Teams With Interest In Josh Bell

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Nationals first baseman Josh Bell is among the likeliest trade candidates on the market, and the Astros are among the teams interested in adding the slugger to their lineup, SNY’s Andy Martino tweets. The Mets are also said to have interest in Bell, who figures to appeal to just about any team in need of an offensive upgrade.

The 29-year-old Bell (30 next month) has been a force in Washington’s lineup for the past two seasons, coming over from the Pirates in a trade that sent Wil Crowe and minor league righty Eddy Yean to Pittsburgh in return. After an awful first month in D.C. last season, the switch-hitting Bell picked up the pace and hasn’t really slowed down. Since May 1, 2021 — a span of 902 plate appearances — Bell is hitting .293/.376/.503 with 38 long balls, 43 doubles and four triples.

Bell achieves that production with a combination of strong plate discipline and far better bat-to-ball skills than one might expect from a burly 6’4″, 255-pound slugger. He’s walked at an impressive 11.2% clip over that stretch of 902 trips to the plate and struck out in just 15.2% of them (including just 13.5% this season). Bell makes consistently strong contact (45.5% hard-hit rate, 91.1 mph average exit velocity), and although he puts the ball on the ground more than is ideal for someone with his power (51.3% ground-ball rate), he’s adept at spraying line drives. Also, while only 28.2% of Bell’s batted balls during this run have been classified as fly-balls, more than one in five of those flies (20.5%) has left the yard.

Bell once graded as a poor defender at first base but has improved his ratings in recent years. Public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved (+3) and Outs Above Average (+1) feel he’s been a solid option at the position this season — a far cry from early in his career when he was turning in full-season marks of -7 and -8. That defensive improvement is surely key for the Astros, who would have to play Bell at first base with a good deal of frequency given the presence of Yordan Alvarez at designated hitter. Alvarez is capable of playing left field and may do so more often with Michael Brantley out indefinitely due to a shoulder injury, but if the team ends up back at full strength, either Alvarez or Brantley would require some extra reps in the DH slot.

That scenario would likely push Astros stalwart Yuli Gurriel into a part-time role, which may be a bitter pill for both Gurriel and the organization to swallow. However, the 38-year-old Gurriel hasn’t performed up to his previous standards, hitting at a .235/.286/.386 clip through 329 plate appearances. He’s still making loads of contact (13.4% strikeout rate), but his walk rate, power output and batted-ball quality have all declined. Gurriel is popping the ball up to the infield at a higher rate than ever before and is sporting a career-low 17.9% line-drive rate. A Gold Glove winner at first base just last season, Gurriel has also posted negative marks in both DRS (-2) and OAA (-5).

Gurriel is still hitting lefties at a respectable .258/.298/.443 clip (110 wRC+), and he’s a fixture in the Houston clubhouse, so it stands to reason that he’d stick on the roster and be relied upon in a part-time role even if the Astros were to acquire Bell or another first base upgrade. It’s also worth pointing out that Gurriel has shown some signs of life after an awful run in April and May; dating back to June 1, he’s batted .255/.318/.418 in 154 plate appearances. That’s still a far cry from both his typical production and the numbers Bell has posted over the past couple seasons, however.

Bell is earning $10MM this season and will be a free agent at season’s end. The Astros’ $174MM payroll is down notably from last season’s franchise-record $188MM mark, and they’re more than $30MM shy of the new $230MM luxury-tax barrier. As such, there shouldn’t be any financial roadblocks to stand in the way of a deal if the two parties can agree on the young talent that would need to go back to Washington in return.

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