Royals Sign Johan Camargo To Minor League Deal
The Royals signed Johan Camargo to a minor league, the team announced. Though the team hasn’t announced it, the deal presumably comes with an invite to big league spring training camp.
Camargo, 29, spent the past season with the Phillies, tallying 166 plate appearances over 52 games after initially joining on a minor league pact. He hit three home runs and put up a .237/.297/.316 line.
Camargo had a couple of productive seasons for the Braves after being called up for the first time in 2017. During 2017-18, he hit 23 home runs and put up a wRC+ of 110 over 780 plate appearances. Combined with some strong defense at third base, Camargo put up 4.6 fWAR in those first two seasons in Atlanta and looked to be establishing himself as a valuable contributor for the Braves.
His production fell off considerably from 2019, and since then he’s put up a well below-average wRC+ of just 66, 34 percent below the league average. Camargo was mostly used as a shortstop by the Phillies, and has appeared at other infield and outfield spots over his career, but generally grades out best at third.
MLBTR Poll: American League Central Favorite
The American League Central has had three different winners in the past three years. The Twins took the top spot in both 2019 and the shortened 2020 season but have since seen injuries hamper them significantly in the past two campaigns. A resurgent White Sox club took over in 2021, making the playoffs for a second consecutive year for the first time in franchise history. Many thought those two clubs would be battling it out in 2022 but a young Guardians team pulled off a surprise upset as both the Twins and Sox were snakebit by poor health. During that time, both the Royals and Tigers have been struggling to come out of rebuilds.
With just over three weeks until pitchers and catchers report, how much has the picture changed this offseason? There’s are still a few unsigned free agents and some trades could always change the picture, but let’s take a look at where things stand now.
Cleveland Guardians – 2022 Record: 92-70, projected 2023 fWAR: 45.1
The Guardians were the youngest team in baseball last year and expectations were fairly modest at this point one year ago. However, they snuck up on everyone and took the crown. Many will debate whether it was sustainable or a fluke, but they’ve gone into the offseason in a good position to repeat. Since so much of the roster was young and controllable, their most notable free agents were Austin Hedges and Bryan Shaw. That means the vast majority of the club that won 92 games last year will be back, with plenty more exciting prospects potentially joining them throughout the year.
Since they lost so few players at the end of last year, it’s been a fairly quiet winter for the club so far. However, they did make two notable additions by signing Josh Bell and Mike Zunino. Those two should help bolster the squad, and there will also be reinforcements coming from within. Prospects Brayan Rocchio, George Valera and Logan Allen all reached Triple-A last year and could make their MLB debuts this year, with Tanner Bibee, Daniel Espino and others not far behind.
Chicago White Sox – 2022 Record: 81-81, projected 2023 fWAR: 40.6
The Sox won 93 games in 2021 and were picked by many for a repeat in 2022. Unfortunately, many of their lineup regulars spent significant time on the injured list or disappointed or both. The rotation got huge results from Dylan Cease and Johnny Cueto but the rest of the rotation dealt with various ailments and slumped when on the mound. Manager Tony La Russa also dealt with health issues down the stretch and decided not to return to the dugout for 2023, leading to the hiring of Pedro Grifol.
They lost Cueto in free agency, along with their long-time fan favorite José Abreu. It’s hoped that Andrew Vaughn can come in from the outfield and take over for Abreu at first, which should at least help the team by subtracting his awful defense on the grass. Andrew Benintendi was signed to take over one of the outfield spots in Vaughn’s absence while Mike Clevinger was signed to replace Cueto in the rotation. It’s a fairly similar roster to the ones that won 93 games two years ago and 81 games last year. Better health might be enough to get them back to the 2021 form, but they’ve already lost their closer for an undetermined amount of time with Liam Hendriks starting treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.
Minnesota Twins – 2022 Record: 78-84, projected 2023 fWAR: 42.0
After two straight divisions titles in 2019 and 2020, it’s been two disappointing campaigns in Minnesota. A mountain of injuries kept them below .500 in each of the two most recent campaigns. They were also facing the loss of a superstar this winter as Carlos Correa opted out of his contract and seemed unlikely to return. He then underwent one of the most surprising trips through free agency in recent memory, agreeing to a 13-year deal with the Giants that was later scuttled when the club grew concerned by the long-term health of his right leg. Correa then agreed to a 12-year deal with the Mets, though that agreement was also kiboshed by the medicals. That culminated in Correa coming back to Minnesota on a six-year guarantee with four vesting options.
Getting Correa back is a nice coup for the Twins but it still means they’ve effectively ended up back where they started. Christian Vázquez was signed to replace the departing Gary Sánchez and they’ve also taken a gamble on a Joey Gallo bounceback, but the roster currently looks fairly similar to the one that disappointed last year. Better health alone could get them right back into the race and they hired a new head athletic trainer to try to help in that department. However, it wouldn’t be surprising if injuries were an issue again since many of their key players appear to be prone to IL trips.
Detroit Tigers – 2022 Record: 66-96, projected 2023 fWAR: 30.0
The Tigers were a popular sleeper pick for a postseason berth about this time last year. They had many exciting prospects on the cusp of their debuts, including Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson. They decided the time was right to strike by signing Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez, as well as upgrading via trade. Unfortunately, just about everyone on the roster had a disappointing season, especially on offense. The team hit just .231/.286/.346 for a wRC+ of 81 that was dead last in the majors. Their collective 110 home runs was also last and 17 behind the nearest team.
It seems like 2023 will be about figuring out how to proceed. The club fired general manager Al Avila and brought in Scott Harris as president of baseball operations. Since then, they’ve traded away a couple of relievers in Joe Jiménez and Gregory Soto while also signing a couple of starters to one-year deals in Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen. It seems the all-in approach is on hold until they figure out which parts of their roster to build around.
Kansas City Royals – 2022 Record: 65-97, projected 2023 fWAR: 30.7
The Royals have finished below .500 in each of the past six seasons. Their attempted rebuild was failing to bear fruit, which led to major shakeups this winter. Both manager Mike Matheny and president of baseball operations Dayton Moore were fired, with Matt Quatraro now in the skipper’s chair and J.J. Picollo the chief baseball decision maker. The roster changes have been fairly modest so far this winter, with Zack Greinke the most notable departure, though he’s still a free agent. The additions include Jordan Lyles, Ryan Yarbrough and Aroldis Chapman.
The club has some exciting young players in Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and MJ Melendez, but many of their top draft choices have gone to pitchers that have disappointed thus far. Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar, Alec Marsh, Jonathan Bowlan and Asa Lacy were all taken in the first or second round of the draft and haven’t yet delivered much to be excited about. However, Brady Singer showed in 2022 that the narrative can be flipped. Turning young players into viable big leaguers is key for a club that doesn’t throw around piles of cash in free agency. The recent lack of success in that regard has hurt them and they’ll need to do better somehow.
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While the Tigers and Royals seem likely to be using this year to evaluate younger players, the other three clubs all have a plausible path to winning the division. The Guardians are reigning champs and have added Bell to give them some extra thump. The Sox have stars like Tim Anderson, Luis Robert and Dylan Cease but just need everyone to stay healthy. It’s a similar story for the Twins who have elite players like Correa and Byron Buxton but need to keep them and others off the injured list. The three clubs are separated by just 4.5 projected WAR, according to FanGraphs, which points to an exciting battle in the upcoming campaign.
What do you think? Can the Guardians repeat or will one of their competitors surpass them? Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
Who Will Win The AL Central In 2023
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Guardians 47% (5,232)
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Twins 26% (2,891)
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White Sox 18% (2,036)
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Tigers 5% (514)
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Royals 4% (445)
Total votes: 11,118
Royals, Padres Among Teams Interested In Aroldis Chapman
Both the Royals and Padres have some level of interest free-agent lefty Aroldis Chapman, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. This comes just one day after the Marlins were also reported to have interest in the former Yankees, Cubs and Reds closer.
The 2022 season was a rough one for Chapman, who’ll turn 35 next month. The lefty’s fastball, which once averaged better than 101 mph, dropped to a 97.5 mph average in 2022. Simultaneously, his command troubles spike to their worst levels since back in 2011. Chapman’s 26.9% strikeout rate in 2022 was better than league-average but still a career-low by a wide margin, and he walked a massive 17.5% of his opponents, which is the second-worst mark of his career.
Chapman’s 4.46 ERA was passable but nevertheless the highest of his career, and he missed six weeks of the season with an Achilles injury in addition to a roughly three-week absence owing to a leg infection related to a recent tattoo he’d received. He was also left off the Yankees’ postseason roster after skipping a team workout
Kansas City has taken its share of low-cost gambles on former high-profile closers in recent years, inking Trevor Rosenthal prior to the 2020 season and also bringing former K.C. stars Wade Davis and Greg Holland back for buy-low reunion tours. Chapman would be a page out of a similar playbook.
With just an $85MM projected payroll (via Roster Resource) and plenty of uncertainty behind closer Scott Barlow, the Royals represent a sensible enough on-paper fit. They already have three potential southpaws for the ‘pen, with Amir Garrett, Anthony Misiewicz and Richard Lovelady on hand, but Misiewicz does have a pair of minor league option years remaining. And, if Chapman were able to bounce back into form, he could potentially be someone they look to flip to another club as the trade deadline draws nearer.
As for the Padres, nary a free agent with any name value passes by without being connected to them. The Friars already have a deep bullpen, headlined by Josh Hader, Robert Suarez, Luis Garcia and a hopefully healthy Drew Pomeranz, but Chapman would add another big arm to the mix. Ownership and president of baseball operations A.J. Preller have shown a clear affinity for high-profile stars in recent years, even if some of those name-brand players have been past their peak production.
Then again, they’re also already sitting on a $251MM payroll, and Chapman could push them into the third tier of luxury penalization, given the projected $270.6MM currently on their luxury ledger. In terms of monetary penalization, the jump from adding Chapman likely wouldn’t be large. The Padres would pay a 42% tax on every dollar up to $273MM in luxury obligations, and that number would jump to 75% thereafter. However, presuming Chapman won’t command much more than a few million dollars on a one-year rebound deal, that sum won’t be particularly burdensome.
That said, there’s a greater cost to consider if the Padres want to continue spending in free agency. Exceeding the luxury tax threshold by more than $40MM also results in a team’s top pick in the subsequent year’s draft pushed back by 10 places. Tacking on even a $3MM salary for Chapman would come with something like $4MM in costs between his salary and luxury tax penalties, but would more importantly drop the Padres out of the top 30 in the 2024 draft while also reducing the size of their bonus pool. Further trades, of course, could always alter that calculus, but the Padres were recently reported to be approaching a “self-prescribed” spending limit. It wouldn’t be a surprise to learn that the point at which payroll begins to detrimentally impact future drafts is indeed that limit.
While much of the free-agent market moved at an accelerated pace this offseason, the market for left-handed relievers has been curiously slow. Taylor Rogers took until late December to land his three-year deal with the Giants, and Chapman joins the likes of Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Will Smith, Brad Hand and Zack Britton as a southpaw reliever of note that has yet to sign a team for the 2023 season.
Royals Sought Josh Winder For Michael A. Taylor In Trade Talks With Twins
The Twins have contacted the Royals this offseason about the possibility of acquiring center fielder Michael A. Taylor, reports Dan Hayes of the Athletic. However, Hayes adds that Minnesota was “discouraged” by Kansas City’s ask for right-hander Josh Winder in return. There’s no indication conversations between the clubs are still ongoing.
The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported last month that Kansas City was making Taylor available in trade. Minnesota is the first known team to have checked in with Royals GM J.J. Picollo and his staff regarding the defense-first outfielder. Even if talks didn’t advance especially far, Kansas City’s ask for Winder suggests they’re at least opening conversations regarding Taylor with a lofty goal. That might be especially true for an intra-divisional opponent like the Twins.
Winder, 26, is one of the more highly-regarded pitchers in the Minnesota organization. While he entered pro ball with little fanfare as a 7th-round pick out of VMI, he put himself firmly on the radar coming out of the canceled 2020 minor league season. Winder pushed his average fastball velocity up a few ticks into the mid-90s over the lost year and excelled over 10 starts at Double-A Wichita to start the 2021 campaign. He struggled in a four-start look with Triple-A St. Paul to end that season but nevertheless entered 2022 as one of the better prospects in the Twins’ system.
Baseball America slotted the 6’5″ hurler sixth in the Minnesota system heading into last season, calling him a potential mid-rotation starter. Winder broke camp with the MLB club and made his first 15 big league appearances. He made 11 starts and came out of the bullpen four times, working to a 4.70 ERA through 67 innings. His 16.4% strikeout rate and 35% grounder percentage were each markedly below average, though he continued his career-long track record of pounding the strike zone.
While it wasn’t a resoundingly successful debut effort, Winder showed enough promise to believe he could still play a long-term rotation role in the Twin Cities. He mixed four pitches with regularity, led by a 94 MPH fastball and mid-80s slider. Winder has long had above-average or better control and held his own against left-handed batters last season. Even if he never misses enough bats to reach the mid-rotation upside some prospect evaluators had forecasted, he’s an upper-level depth arm who could carve out a back-of-the-rotation spot as soon as this year.
Minnesota optioned Winder on a couple occasions last year. That exhausted his first of three option years but also means he fell shy of accruing a full year of service time. He’s controllable for at least another six seasons and additional assignments back to St. Paul could push his free agent trajectory back further. He won’t qualify for arbitration until after the 2024 season at the earliest.
It’s not surprising the Twins wouldn’t relinquish six-plus years of Winder’s services for Taylor, who is only under contract for the 2023 campaign. Minnesota could see each of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda depart via free agency next offseason. That’d leave them with Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and unproven younger arms like Winder, Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland to vie for rotation spots as things stand. The long-term uncertainty has led the Twins to entertain trade possibilities with the Marlins about potentially adding a controllable starter like Pablo López to the mix.
While one season of Taylor’s services isn’t likely to bring back Winder, he should have a decent amount of appeal on the trade market. The veteran outfielder has had a productive two-year run in K.C. after spending the bulk of his career with the Nationals. Taylor has long been a below-average offensive player thanks to swing-and-miss concerns, but he’s one of the sport’s preeminent outfield defenders.
The 31-year-old (32 in March) has played upwards of 1000 innings in center field in each of the last two years. He’s been a stellar fit for spacious Kauffman Stadium, with Defensive Runs Saved estimating he’s been 19 runs better than an average center fielder in both seasons. His cumulative +38 DRS is head and shoulders above the rest of the league at the position, with Myles Straw checking in second at +21 runs. Statcast has been a little more conservative but still pegged Taylor as +19 runs over the past two seasons, tied with Harrison Bader for second behind Straw.
While whether Taylor’s truly the league’s best defensive outfielder or “merely” in the top handful is debatable, it’s clear he’s an elite gloveman. That drives his value, as he carries a modest .249/.304/.357 line in just under 1000 plate appearances as a Royal. To his credit, Taylor has tamped down on the massive strikeout rates of his time in Washington, with last season’s 23.9% strikeout percentage only a couple points worse than the league average. He’s had to sacrifice some hard contact to put the ball in play more frequently, posting the two lowest isolated power marks of his career the last couple seasons.
Even as a bottom-of-the-lineup type, Taylor’s a valuable player. He’s also making just $4.5MM in 2023, meaning he should be able to fit on virtually any club’s payroll ledger. Minnesota eyed him as a fourth outfielder as potential injury insurance behind Byron Buxton and a right-handed bat to integrate into an outfield that skews very left-handed. Yet he could appeal to other clubs as more of an everyday center field option, particularly given the market scarcity at the position. The free agent center field market is barren enough the Red Sox agreed to terms with Adam Duvall — who’s 34 and has been mostly a corner player throughout his career — to play up the middle. Trade possibilities are similarly sparse, particularly since the Pirates have remained firm on their ask for Bryan Reynolds.
That all makes Taylor a potentially interesting trade candidate. The Royals’ discussions with the Twins suggest they’re not prepared to move him without getting a strong return. That seems unlikely to come from Minnesota, though teams like the Marlins, Dodgers, Rangers and Rockies could check in as they continue to seek out help at the position.
Royals Hoping For Incentive-Laden Deal With Zack Greinke
The Royals have made a pair of relatively low-cost additions to their rotation this offseason. Ryan Yarbrough inked a $3MM guarantee in mid-December, while Jordan Lyles secured a two-year, $17MM commitment a couple weeks later.
Those veteran starters join younger, in-house hurlers like Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Max Castillo and Kris Bubic in the rotation mix for first-year skipper Matt Quatraro. It also raises the possibility that Kansas City’s top free agent of the winter, Zack Greinke, heads elsewhere. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that while Kansas City remains open to bringing Grienke back, the six-time All-Star would likely have to take an incentive-laden contract to return. Such a deal would have a relatively low base salary that’d allow him to unlock bonuses at various innings thresholds.
At the start of November, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Greinke was planning to return to the majors for a 20th season. Heyman wrote at the time Kansas City was hoping to bring the former Cy Young winner back. There was no indication then anything between the Royals and Greinke’s representatives at Excel Sports Management was close. No other team has been substantively linked to the right-hander throughout the offseason.
Greinke began his professional career with K.C. as the sixth overall pick in the 2002 draft. He starred in Kansas City not long after debuting at age 20 in 2004, going on to win the Cy Young after leading the majors with a 2.16 ERA a few years later. Greinke spent parts of seven seasons with the Royals before being dealt to the Brewers in a 2010-11 offseason blockbuster. He’d spend the next decade solidifying a strong Hall of Fame résumé while pitching for Milwaukee, the Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Astros before returning to free agency last winter.
Kansas City brought Greinke back on a one-year, $13MM guarantee that contained an additional $2MM in potential incentives. Teams like the Twins and Tigers reportedly showed strong interest as well, but Greinke relished the opportunity to return to his original organization.
During his return season to Kaufmann Stadium, the 39-year-old threw 137 innings over 26 starts. He posted a solid 3.68 ERA, largely on the strength of his typically excellent control. Greinke only walked 4.6% of batters faced, the 13th-lowest mark among 140 pitchers with 100+ innings. No pitcher within that group had a lower strikeout percentage than Greinke’s 12.5% rate, while his 7.3% striking strike rate is fourth from the bottom. Greinke’s fastball now sits around 89 MPH and he’s a pitch-to-contact control artist.
While he’s now best suited for back-of-the-rotation work, there’s little question Greinke is still a major league caliber hurler. He hasn’t had an ERA above 4.16 in any of the last six seasons. He had a pair of injured list stints related to forearm discomfort last year but still managed to top 25 starts for the 14th consecutive 162-game season. On top of the value he could bring to younger pitchers in the clubhouse, he remains a solid innings eater for teams seeking to bolster their back end.
Kansas City could fit Greinke onto the roster even after bringing in Yarbrough and Lyles. Only Singer has firmly seized a rotation role among the team’s young starters. Yarbrough has struggled for the past couple seasons and could fairly easily move to long relief himself. The bigger question seems to be finances. The Royals presently project for a payroll in the $86MM range, per Roster Resource. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged them around $95MM to start last season, but K.C. general manager J.J. Picollo indicated at the outset of the offseason the club was dealing with budgetary limitations.
Greinke is one of the top starters who remains unsigned. Aside from Michael Wacha, no free agent starter who hasn’t agreed to terms is coming off a better 2022 campaign. Perhaps Greinke is willing to take an incentive-laden deal to return to K.C. — particularly given his strong track record of staying healthy and amassing plenty of innings — but Rosenthal’s report suggests it wouldn’t be a surprise if another club is willing to beat whatever guarantee the Royals put on the table.
Royals Sign Kohl Stewart To Minor League Deal
The Royals announced agreement with righty Kohl Stewart on a minor league deal this afternoon. Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets that Stewart isn’t likely to be in big league camp as he continues to rehab from an elbow injury that cut his 2021 season short.
Stewart sat out the entire 2022 campaign, ostensibly due to the aforementioned elbow concern. It’s not clear whether he ever underwent surgery or attempted to rehab without going under the knife. In either event, Stewart hasn’t thrown a competitive pitch since the Cubs placed him on the 60-day injured list in July 2021 with what the club announced as elbow inflammation. Chicago ran him through outright waivers at the start of that offseason rather than reinstate him to their 40-man roster. He remained a minor league free agent until today.
The 28-year-old is a former top five draftee, going fourth overall to the Twins in 2013. Stewart spent five seasons climbing the minor league ladder before briefly appearing at the MLB level with Minnesota between 2018-19. He started six of 19 appearances over those two years, working to a 4.79 ERA through 62 innings. The Twins let him go at the end of the latter season, and he hooked on with the Orioles on a split deal.
Stewart, a Type 1 diabetic, opted out of the 2020 campaign due to concerns over COVID-19. He never threw a pitch as an Oriole, as the team let him go at the end of the year. As a free agent, he found a big league deal with the Cubs. Stewart started three of four outings with Chicago, allowing 12 runs in 13 2/3 innings before the injury issues intervened.
All told, the Houston native owns a 4.88 ERA over 75 2/3 major league frames. He’s fanned a below-average 13.6% of opponents against a slightly elevated 9.6% walk rate. Over parts of four Triple-A campaigns, he owns a 4.65 ERA in 162 2/3 innings. The sinkerballer had a strong prospect pedigree for a while, however, and he’s induced grounders on over half the batted balls he’s allowed in the big leagues.
Precisely when Stewart will be ready for a return to pitching isn’t clear. Once he’s healthy, he’ll offer the Royals some rotation or long relief depth. He’ll presumably head to Triple-A Omaha at some point during the 2023 season and try to work back to the MLB level.
Royals, Matt Beaty Agree To Minor League Deal
The Royals are in agreement on a minor league contract with first baseman/outfielder Matt Beaty, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Beaty, a client of the Ballengee Group, will be invited to Major League Spring Training.
Beaty, 29, has spent his entire career to date in the National League West. A 12th-round pick by the Dodgers back in 2015, he made his debut with Los Angeles four years later and appeared in the Majors with the Dodgers each season from 2019-21. The Dodgers designated Beaty for assignment and traded him to the Padres last winter, but Beaty appeared in just 20 games and took only 47 plate appearances with San Diego.
The 2022 season proved to be the least productive of Beaty’s big league career, although small-sample caveats obviously apply. In those 47 trips to the plate, he went 4-for-43 with a double and a triple. That’s a far cry from Beaty’s generally solid production in three years with L.A., which saw him post a combined .262/.333/.425 batting line in 556 plate appearances. On the whole, Beaty is a .249/.320/.405 hitter in 603 Major League plate appearances, and he carries a solid .290/.383/.407 batting line in 435 plate appearances at the Triple-A level as well.
Defensively, Beaty has experience at all four corner positions, though he’s barely played any third base over the past few years. He’s primarily a first baseman and left fielder at this juncture, and given that he, like Kansas City first basemen Vinnie Pasquantino and Nick Pratto, swings left-handed, he’ll likely have a hard time getting into the lineup at first base.
The outfield mix in Kansas City is far less settled, however. Michael A. Taylor will reprise his role as the everyday center fielder, barring a trade, but the corner-outfield picture is fairly muddy at present. Veteran Hunter Dozier could mix in on occasion, and the Royals also have younger options in the form of Kyle Isbel, Edward Olivares and prospects Drew Waters and Nate Eaton all on the 40-man roster. Each of Eaton, Dozier and Olivares bats right-handed, while Isbel is a lefty and Waters is a switch-hitter.
There’s perhaps room for Beaty to find his way into that crowded mix — particularly if the Royals are more bullish on his ability to return to the hot corner on occasion. If he doesn’t crack the big league roster this spring, he’ll likely head to Triple-A Omaha and give the Royals some depth with a pretty decent track record both in Triple-A and the Majors — last year’s dismal results with the Friars notwithstanding.
Orioles Acquire Ryan O’Hearn From Royals
The Orioles have acquired first baseman/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn from the Royals in exchange for cash considerations, per announcements from both clubs. O’Hearn had recently been designated for assignment by the Royals. In order to open up a spot on the 40-man roster, the O’s designated right-hander Chris Vallimont for assignment.
O’Hearn, 29, will join a new organization for the first time in his career, as he was drafted by the Royals in 2014 and has been with them until today. He made his way to the majors by 2018 and had a tremendous debut in that season. He was selected to the club’s roster at the end of July and got into 44 games over the latter months of that campaign. He hit 12 home runs in that brief spell and produced a batting line of .262/.353/.597, with his 153 wRC+ indicating he was 53 percent better than league average in that time.
However, the subsequent four seasons have increasingly made that look like a mirage. From the beginning of 2019 to the present, O’Hearn has hit 26 home runs in 298 games and slashed .211/.282/.351, producing a wRC+ of just 68. That production was 32 percent below the league average hitter in that time but was especially disappointing given his defensive limitations. O’Hearn is primarily a first baseman who has occasionally seen time in the outfield corners. Since those positions come with higher expectations for offensive production, a tepid showing like O’Hearn’s was increasingly untenable.
The Royals had already tendered O’Hearn a contract for 2023, avoiding arbitration by agreeing to a $1.4MM salary for 2023. However, once they made their signing of Jordan Lyles official, they designated O’Hearn for assignment and have now sent him to Baltimore. For the O’s, they’ve been busy trying to add left-handed first baseman and/or corner outfielders for most of the offseason. They’ve signed Nomar Mazara and Franchy Cordero to minor league deals and also claimed Lewin Díaz off waivers, though they later designated Díaz for assignment and traded him to the Braves. A similar situation played out with Jake Cave, who was claimed off waivers from the Twins but then lost to the Phillies on a subsequent waiver claim.
The O’s are set to have right-hander Ryan Mountcastle as their primary first baseman in 2023 but they seem to be hoping to find a left-handed option to give manager Brandon Hyde some options in setting his lineups. O’Hearn certainly has noticeable splits in his career, as he’s hit just just .169/.244/.257 against lefties. He’s been much better the rest of the time, with a .228/.302/.414 line, though that’s still below average with his wRC+ coming in at 90 against righties. Regardless, the O’s will take a shot on him and see if they can get O’Hearn to take a step forward. He has one option year remaining and could therefore be sent to the minors for a time for some extra at-bats down there. FanGraphs calculates his service time at 4.002 right now, meaning he can be retained for 2024 via arbitration, though a significant stint in the minors would prevent him from reaching the five-year service mark this year and give the club an extra year of control beyond that.
As for Vallimont, 26 in March, he has yet to make his major league debut. Drafted by the Marlins, he was traded to the Twins in 2019 and got added to Minnesota’s roster in November of 2021 to protect against selection in the Rule 5 draft. He had just finished a season in which he posted a 6.03 ERA over 21 starts in Double-A, but with a huge 31.1 percent strikeout rate. He also walked 14.6 percent of the batters he faced, but the Twins were intrigued enough to give him a roster spot.
In 2022, he returned to Double-A and posted a huge 9.95 ERA over his first seven appearances and was designated for assignment in May. The O’s grabbed him off waivers sent him to their own Double-A affiliate and saw him turn things around for a time. He registered an ERA of 0.69 over three starts and got sent up to Triple-A. However, the new level proved a challenge for him, as he ran up a 5.38 ERA the rest of the way. The O’s will now have a week to trade him or pass him through waivers. Vallimont still has a couple of option years and could interest teams that are looking for some pitching depth.
Royals To “Explore” Adding More Starting Pitching
The Royals entered the offseason with a stated goal of adding some veteran depth to their young rotation, and the signings of Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough have addressed that need. However, general manager J.J. Picollo may not be done, recently telling The Kansas City Star’s Lynn Worthy and other reporters that “I think we have to still explore” further reinforcements to the starting five.
“Because we just don’t know how it’s going to end up throughout the offseason, regardless of who the pitcher is,” Picollo said. “So if there’s an opportunity for us to get deeper and get better, we can’t close the door right now.”
Technically, only Lyles is assured of a full-time spot in the 2023 rotation, as K.C. could opt to keep using Yarbrough in a swingman capacity. Yarbrough has started 59 of his 127 career MLB games (all with the Rays), operating as a traditional starter, an opener, a bulk pitcher behind an opener, and in a long relief capacity. New Royals manager Matt Quatraro is a former longtime member of the Rays’ coaching staff, and thus is very familiar with how Yarbrough can be deployed in a way that helps a pitching staff as a whole.
Considering the uncertainty throughout the rest of Kansas City’s rotation, Yarbrough’s versatility gives Quatraro, Picollo, and company some flexibility with their pitching options. Lyles and Brady Singer are the only sure things for starting roles, as highly-touted younger starters Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, and Jackson Kowar have all struggled in their relatively brief big league careers. Veteran Brad Keller has also been quite shaky over the last two seasons, and was shifted to the bullpen last summer.
As much as the Royals still want (or need) to see what they have in Lynch, Bubic, and Kowar, bringing in another steady veteran hurler in addition to Lyles and Yarbrough might help the Royals be more competitive in 2023. While this could leave the youngsters competing for just one starting spot heading into Opening Day, it can be assumed that Keller might be something of a short leash for a rotation job. Plus, the Royals could also pivot and move Yarbrough to the pen if multiple pitchers impress during Spring Training.
Picollo also suggested that any starters who don’t win rotation spots could work out of the bullpen. K.C. is also looking for relief pitching this winter, yet this need could be addressed from within if one of younger starters make at least a temporary transition to the pen. This wouldn’t forego an eventual return to rotation work later this season or in 2024, but clearly the Royals are willing to explore all possibilities for upgrading a pitching corps that struggled last year.
Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts
Some teams don’t publicly announce contract terms, or in some cases, even if a manager or a top front office executive (i.e. president of baseball operations, general manager, or whatever title is given to the lead decision-maker) has been given an extension whatsoever. As a result, this list of the managers and executives entering the final years of their contracts is somewhat unofficial, as it wouldn’t be surprising if at least a few names on this list are indeed locked up beyond 2023 on pre-existing contracts or on extensions that have yet to be publicly announced.
Naturally, job security goes beyond just the terms of a contract. One wouldn’t have imagined that the Rangers’ Jon Daniels or the Royals’ Dayton Moore were necessarily on thin ice heading into the 2022 season, yet the two longtime front office bosses were fired before the season was even over, as both Texas and Kansas City underachieved. Likewise, former Astros GM James Click seemed like a sure bet for a long-term deal given Houston’s success, and yet due to some internal discord with owner Jim Crane, Click ended up leaving after the Astros offered him only (what seemed like a token of a) one-year extension.
The addition of the extra wild card spot could put even more pressure on teams to win, especially since the Phillies’ run from sixth seed to NL champions underlined what can happen if a club can just get into the postseason bracket. In addition, some of the names on this list face uncertainty due to potential changes in team ownership — and as the Astros showed, no amount of on-field success can help if an owner simply wants someone new in the baseball ops department.
As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.
Angels: Phil Nevin was moved from third base coach to interim manager when Joe Maddon was fired in June, and Nevin ended up leading the Angels to an underwhelming 46-60 record in his first stint as a big league skipper. Despite the lack of success, the Halos removed the interim tag by signing Nevin to a one-year deal, giving him a longer (but not much longer) opportunity to see what he can do as the team’s manager. The Angels organization as a whole is in a fluid state given that a new owner might be running the club by Opening Day or soon thereafter, and yet in what looks to be Arte Moreno’s last offseason as the Halos’ owner, Anaheim has been pretty aggressive in adding roster pieces to try and find that elusive winning mix. If Nevin can help get Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and company to the playoffs or even over the .500 mark, it will greatly help his case for a long-term contract under the new owner….or, possibly a managerial job elsewhere if the new owner still wants to brings in their own personnel.
Astros: Hired in rather abrupt fashion in the wake of the sign-stealing scandal, Dusty Baker’s three seasons in Houston have resulted in two World Series appearances, and the 2022 championship represented Baker’s first ring as a manager in 25 seasons in the dugout. Baker’s initial contract (one year and a club option) has been followed up by successive one-year deals that weren’t finalized until after the Astros’ playoff runs were over, but Crane has repeatedly stated that he prefers to avoid distractions by waiting until after the season to work out contractual matters. Baker’s age (74 in June) might be another reason why Crane has resisted giving Baker a longer-term deal, so another extension might not come for Baker until October or November. With the Click situation lingering as an odd footnote to Houston’s championship season, Baker at least seems to have more sway with ownership than the former GM did, yet the Astros might have to keep winning to ensure that Baker is back in 2024.
Athletics: GM David Forst has been a member of Oakland’s front office since 2000, and he’ll now finally take over as the top job in the baseball operations department after Billy Beane moved to an advisory role with the club. As per the terms of Forst’s last extension, he is signed through the 2023 season, and there wasn’t any word of a new contract attached to the Athletics’ announcement of Forst’s new role. As the A’s continue to search for a new ballpark in Oakland or a potential move to a new city, there’s a bit of flux involved throughout the organization, yet it would certainly seem like the A’s will continue their tradition of front-office continuity by giving Forst a new deal at some point. Forst is currently shepherding the Athletics through their latest rebuild, but if an extension wasn’t worked out, he would likely quickly find work elsewhere given how many teams have tried to poach him for other front office vacancies in recent years.
Brewers: Craig Counsell has been managing the Brew Crew since 2015, and 2023 is the final year of the skipper’s current four-year contract. Milwaukee is an impressive 615-555 under Counsell’s watch, with two NL Central titles, four postseason appearances and a trip to the NLCS in 2018. However, 2018 was also the last time the Brewers won a playoff series, and the team’s postseason streak ended in 2022 despite a respectable 86-76 record. It would still seem like Counsell would be a strong candidate to receive an extension, though there’s some uncertainty throughout the organization in the wake of David Stearns’ rather surprising decision to step down as the team’s president of baseball operations. General manager Matt Arnold is now in charge of the front office, though past reports suggested that Arnold’s own deal only lasts through the 2023 season. Brewers owner Mark Attanasio could have some inclination to pursue a new direction if the Brewers struggled next year, and if Arnold isn’t seen as a long-term answer, Attanasio could look for a new front office boss as Stearns’ true replacement, and a new PBO or GM might also want to make their own managerial hire.
Cardinals: 2023 is the final season of the three-year extension John Mozeliak signed in November 2019. A member of the Cardinals organization since 1995 and the head of their front office since the 2007-08 offseason, Mozeliak has been working under the president of baseball operations title since 2017. Michael Girsch was promoted to the GM role at that same time, and is signed through at least 2024 as per the terms of an extension signed back in October. With Girsch’s deal in mind, it would seem like Mozeliak will also be extended again, as the Cardinals have enjoyed 15 straight winning seasons and have reached the postseason in each of the last four years. This being said, the bar for success is always high in St. Louis, and the team hasn’t won a playoff series since 2019 and hasn’t reached the World Series since 2013.
Diamondbacks: Executive VP/general manager Mike Hazen was already under contract through 2020 when he signed a new extension in September 2019, and the length of that new deal wasn’t released. As such, it is possible 2023 might be Hazen’s final year under contract. Manager Torey Lovullo’s status is more public, as the D’Backs exercised their club option on his services for 2023. Since the Diamondbacks haven’t had a winning season since 2019 and haven’t made the postseason since 2017 (Hazen and Lovullo’s first year in Arizona), ownership might be waiting to see if any significant progress is made before exploring an extension for either its GM or manager.
Dodgers: Andrew Friedman came to Los Angeles on a five-year, $35MM contract that covered the 2014-19 seasons, and he then signed a new extension of an unknown length after the 2019 campaign was complete. If that extension was only a four-year pact, 2023 would be Friedman’s final season as the Dodgers’ president of baseball operations, barring another new deal. Despite the relative lack of postseason success in regards to the Dodgers’ dominance of the regular season, Friedman’s tenure has still delivered one World Series title, and it would seem like he has as much job security as anyone in baseball.
Giants: Farhan Zaidi is entering the final season of his five-year contract as San Francisco’s president of baseball operations. Through two years of rebuilding (and competitive baseball) and then a 107-win season in 2021, it seemed like the Giants had taken a fast track to success, but things took a step backwards with an 81-81 record last year. Heading into with the winter with an aggressive mandate to spend and attract high-profile talent to the Bay Area, the Giants have added some notable players but fallen short on two superstars — Aaron Judge re-signed with the Yankees, while Carlos Correa had agreed to a 13-year, $350MM pact with the Giants before the team delayed finalizing the deal due to concerns stemming from Correa’s physical. Correa immediately pivoted to the Mets on a 12-year, $315MM contract, and since the Mets reportedly have their own issues with Correa’s lower right leg and ankle, the situation has become less of a fiasco for the Giants than it initially appeared. Team chairman Greg Johnson gave Zaidi a vote of confidence heading into the offseason, but it remains to be seen if ownership is satisfied with the aftermath of this very unusual winter.
Guardians: There hasn’t yet been any public word on the details of Terry Francona’s extension, but the reigning AL Manager Of The Year has already been confirmed as returning for the 2023 campaign. Given Francona’s health issues, 2023 could be his final season in the dugout, but the Guardians’ front office and team owner Paul Dolan have both intimated that Francona can remain as manager as long as he is willing and able. President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti also doesn’t seem to be in any danger, though the longtime Cleveland exec’s contract terms aren’t known.
Marlins: Kim Ng has a 137-188 record over her first two seasons as Miami’s general manager, though as usual with the Marlins, it isn’t clear how much of those struggles are the GM’s fault. Derek Jeter‘s departure as CEO last March left an upper management void within the organization, and while the Marlins have slightly expanded payroll in Ng’s tenure, they are still among the game’s lower spenders. It could be argued that with Jeter and ex-manager Don Mattingly gone, Ng now freer rein to turn the Marlins in her own direction, beginning with the hiring of Skip Schumaker as the club’s new bench boss. The terms of Ng’s contract weren’t publicly revealed, so 2023 could conceivably be the final guaranteed year of her deal — if so, some progress might be necessary to keep owner Bruce Sherman from starting yet another rebuild.
Nationals: President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez are both only signed through the 2023 season, as the Nationals exercised club options on both men back in July. Wins and losses aren’t really a factor for the rebuilding Nats, but the ongoing search for a new owner certainly is, though the most recent reports haven’t given any clear timeline on when a sale might be finalized. As a result, Rizzo and Martinez might each be facing a lame-duck season, with their fates unknown until a new owner is in place.
Orioles: The contract terms of GM Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde haven’t been publicized, though Hyde’s newest extension runs through at least the 2023 season. Since the O’s were so quiet about extending Hyde, it wouldn’t be a surprise to learn that Elias was also extended at some point, continuing a tenure that began with the 2018-19 offseason. Regardless of the details, it certainly doesn’t seem like either Elias or Hyde are going anywhere, considering how the Orioles had a winning record (83-79) in 2022 and seem ready to put their rebuild firmly in the rearview mirror.
Pirates: Speaking of rebuilds, the Pirates can only hope for a Baltimore-esque breakout next year. Ben Cherington is entering the fourth season as Pittsburgh’s general manager, on a contract of an unknown length. Manager Derek Shelton is concretely operating on a four-year pact, so 2023 will be his last guaranteed season, though Cherington has spoken glowingly about Shelton’s work in leading the young Bucs through the hard times of the rebuild period. Extensions would keep Shelton and perhaps Cherington from being lame ducks in 2023, though there doesn’t seem to be any sense that either is in danger of being let go.
Rangers: Chris Young became the Rangers’ GM in December 2020, and he unexpectedly found himself in charge of the front office entirely once Daniels was fired in August. The terms of Young’s initial contract weren’t known, and it doesn’t seem as though his surprise promotion came with any extra years added onto his deal. The Rangers’ spending spree over the last two offseasons has left no doubt that ownership wants to win now, so Young’s own job could be in jeopardy if Texas struggles (or perhaps has a slow start) in 2023. That said, Young’s past history as a player under manager Bruce Bochy surely played a role in convincing Bochy to become the Rangers’ new skipper, so Young has started to make his influence known in the Texas front office.
Reds: David Bell‘s two-year contract is up after the 2023 season, which would be Bell’s fifth season as the Reds’ manager. Cincinnati promoted GM Nick Krall as the leader of the baseball ops department following the 2020 season, and Krall has since been tasked with cutting payroll and setting the Reds on a rebuilding path. Krall’s contract length isn’t publicly known, so 2023 probably isn’t a make-or-break season for Krall to help his job security, unless the team absolutely craters and the development of the Reds’ younger players hits a roadblock. The same could be true of Bell, unless the front office feels a new voice is needed in the dugout to continue the progress.
Red Sox: The terms of Chaim Bloom’s contract as Boston’s chief baseball officer aren’t publicly known, though 2023 will be Bloom’s fourth season. This is a notable threshold considering Bloom’s predecessors in leading the Red Sox front office — Cherington didn’t last four full seasons, while Dave Dombrowski spent slightly over four years on the job, from August 2015 to September 2019. Those two executives led the Sox to World Series titles in those brief tenures, while under Bloom, the Red Sox have a pair of last-place finishes sandwiched around a berth in the 2021 ALCS. Assuming ownership is still as impatient to win, Bloom might need the Sox to take a big step up in 2023 in order to keep his job.
Rockies: Bud Black has only one guaranteed year remaining on his deal, yet seems to be operating on what The Athletic’s Nick Groke reported as “a rolling year-to-year contract.” Even considering how the Rockies traditionally operate on a system of loyalty and continuity, one would imagine that a fifth straight losing season might be enough to convince the team to pursue a new manager.
Royals: Similar to the Rangers’ situation with Young, Kansas City GM J.J. Picollo found himself atop the Royals’ baseball ops pyramid when Moore was fired in September, with no word of a contract extension attached to this change in responsibility. The difference is that Picollo has had a much longer tenure in K.C. (having worked in the front office since 2006 under Moore’s leadership), and while owner John Sherman is undoubtedly eager to start winning, he hasn’t invested the hundreds of millions that the Rangers’ owners have in their struggling club. Immediate success might not be expected in Picollo’s first year, but his chances of a longer deal might hinge on whether or not the Royals’ younger players start developing at a better rate, or if new manager Matt Quatraro can get more out of the young club.
Twins: The 2022 season completed the guaranteed portion of Rocco Baldelli‘s initial contract with the Twins, which was a four-year deal with multiple club options attached. Chief baseball officer Derek Falvey stated in September that Baldelli would be back next season, so at the very least, the Twins have exercised their option on Baldelli for 2023. For what it’s worth, Falvey and GM Thad Levine are both under contract through 2024, and it is possible Falvey, Levine, and Baldelli might all be in hot water if the Twins can’t turn things around this coming season. Minnesota followed up AL Central titles in both 2019 and 2020 with two losing seasons, and another sub-.500 campaign might make Baldelli the first one out the door, given his lesser contractual control.
White Sox: Executive VP Ken Williams (1997) and general manager Rick Hahn (2002) are each long-time members of Chicago’s front office, and have been in their current positions since October 2012. Since the White Sox don’t publicize executive contracts, not much is known about Williams or Hahn’s status, other than that their last extensions came during the 2017 season. It’s fair to guess that both might have received new deals since that time, but in any case, it may be a moot point given how owner Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t quick to make changes in the front office. The hope is that new manager Pedro Grifol can succeed where Tony La Russa didn’t, and there hasn’t been any sense that Williams or Hahn might be on the hot seat, though that could possibly change if a White Sox team built to win now stumbles again.