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Latest On Josh Harrison’s Market

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The Dodgers, Giants, Angels, Phillies and Rays are all in on free agent Josh Harrison at the moment, according to Jon Heyman of Fancred.

Reported interest from the Giants and Angels isn’t anything new for Harrison, but this is the first time the Dodgers, Phillies and Rays have been connected to him in any major way this offseason. The 31-year-old Harrison is available on the heels of a below-average season with the Pirates, who declined his $10.5MM club option in favor of a $1MM buyout afterward, but has typically been a decent offensive player and a solid, versatile defender during his career. Consequently, Harrison has drawn widespread interest on the open market.

A .277/.317/.408 hitter in 3,012 plate appearances, Harrison has posted a 98 wRC+ and a 97 OPS+, falling just shy of the league-average mark of 100. He has also accrued significant reps at second, third and in the corner outfield, though the vast majority of his 2018 playing time came at the keystone.

Harrison would provide the Dodgers yet another multi-position defender, and as a right-handed hitter, he’d give the lefty-heavy team some variety in its lineup. For Philly, Harrison may be a fallback option at third base in the event the club doesn’t sign free agent Manny Machado, though it’s debatable at best whether the former is superior to current starter Maikel Franco. The Phillies already have a quality starter at second in Cesar Hernandez, so it’s doubtful Harrison would see much action there. Unlike both the big-spending Dodgers and Phillies, the Rays operate with a bottom-of-the-barrel payroll. Still, they should be able to afford Harrison, who’d offer them further protection behind second baseman Joey Wendle, third baseman Matt Duffy and corner outfielders Tommy Pham and Austin Meadows.

Dodgers Interested In A.J. Pollock

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Free agent outfielder A.J. Pollock is a “target” for the Dodgers, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who adds the two sides are “in discussions.”

Los Angeles, which values balance, flexibility, and the platoon advantage perhaps as much as any team in baseball, currently finds itself with a dearth of right-handed options at play. There’s Justin Turner, of course, but the switch-hitting Yasmani Grandal has left, and the club sent Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp away in a December swap with the Reds, leaving Chris Taylor and the Austin Barnes/Russell Martin duo as the only other penciled-in regulars who hit from the right side. IF/OF Enrique Hernandez demonstrated, for the first time, an ability to produce against same-side arms last year, but the 27-year-old’s meager .221/.288/.377 (82 wRC+) career line vs. righties isn’t likely to suffuse the aggregate-loving front office with much hope.

Though the team’s lefties – Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, and Max Muncy among them – rank as arguably the premier crop in the league, the team was often exposed against southpaws last season, especially late in games, or when facing a bullpen-heavy staff, and can’t hope to always rely on a platoon carousel around the diamond. Indeed, LA’s 2018 bunch was among the worst ever in late-game situations, speculatively owing to its limited bench options in crunch time, given the team’s propensity to hunt for opposite-side advantages in the middle innings.

Pollock, then, offers the perfect antidote, though perhaps not at the right price. As the premier center-fielder on the market, the 31-year-old remains in protracted limbo after early-offseason demands were deemed too high by a number of interested clubs. Recent demands are nebulous, though many have speculated the oft-injured outfielder may be forced to settle for a short-term, high-AAV deal, which would seem to place him right up any number of alleys in Los Angeles.

In his last two, injury-marred campaigns, Pollock’s offensive output has slipped considerably from his 2014-15 peak, when he delivered back-to-back 130 or higher wRC+ seasons. His center-field defense, however, has remained plus, at least per DRS, but he’s swiftly approaching the age at which even generational talents begin to experience a rapid diminishment in their ability to chase down fly balls. The Dodgers, under president of baseball ops Andrew Friedman, aren’t a team that will tolerate age-related decline in any facet, so any long-term deal with Los Angeles may be predicated on the 31-year-old eventually agreeing to move to a corner spot.

How such a signing would impact LA’s ostensible interest in Bryce Harper is unclear, but the club, which has run far away from massive free agent demands under the current regime, wouldn’t figure to be in play for both.

International Signings: Dodgers, Cardinals

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Here are the latest reported deals on the international circuit …

  • The Dodgers appear to have a deal in place with Taiwanese right-hander Lin Hui-Sheng, with Liberty Sports reporting the news and CPBL Stats tweeting it along. It’s believed the youngster will secure a $300K to $350K bonus if and when he passes a physical. You can read more about this reputedly live-armed 20-year-old here, courtesy of CPBL Stats. Injuries seem to have interfered with Lin’s development to this point, but it seems the Dodgers will have an interesting new arm to work with.
  • Three Dominican teenagers are joining the Cardinals organization, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. Righty Jesus Jaquez and outfielders Fernando Brazoban and Smith Vargas are said to be in agreement. There’s little public info on Jaquez and Vargas, but SB Nation’s A.E. Schafer dug up some materials on Brazoban. As he explains, and as an embedded video shows, the youngster appears to have some reasonably impressive physical tools to work with, though it’s certainly all but impossible to venture a reasonable guess as to his long-term outlook.

NL Notes: LeMahieu, Marlins, Straily, Hill

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Some items from around the Senior Circuit…

  • The Marlins had some interest in free agent second baseman DJ LeMahieu, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter), though talks “never got close” between the two sides.  It’s surprising to see the rebuilding Marlins make a play in any sort of veteran this offseason, though as Rosenthal puts it, Miami saw LeMahieu as an “undervalued asset at potential below-market price.”  While it took until early January for LeMahieu to land his two-year, $24MM deal from the Yankees, the second baseman still had a pretty robust market, with multiple teams (including the Giants, Nationals, Dodgers, and Athletics) showing interest in his services.  It stands to reason that several others at least checked in, as the Yankees hadn’t been linked to LeMahieu before their deal was announced and Miami was certainly off the radar as a potential candidate.  LeMahieu’s $24MM total also topped MLBTR’s prediction of a two-year, $18MM contract for the free agent second baseman, so it’s fair to assume that his market never dropped to the point that the Marlins could’ve made a play.
  • Keeping with the Marlins, right-hander Dan Straily remains “high atop the team’s trade list,” the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes.  Straily drew quite a bit of trade attention last winter but his stock dropped after a forearm injury limited him to just 122 1/3 IP in 2018, and some rough advanced metric numbers.  Straily’s .350 xwOBA was well above his .324 wOBA, and ERA indicators (5.11 FIP, 4.99 xFIP, 4.92 SIERA) paint a lesser picture of his 4.12 ERA.  This could make it hard for the Marlins to get their desired “nice return” for the righty, as Cafardo describes it, though he suggests that Miami could get more offers on Straily after other pitching targets in free agency or the trade market come off the board.  Straily is controllable for the next two years and isn’t very expensive, as he and the Marlins recently agreed to a $5MM contract for 2019 to avoid arbitration.
  • Also from Cafardo, he hears from Dodgers southpaw Rich Hill that the veteran hurler “absolutely” plans to continue his career into the 2020 season.  Hill is entering the final season of his three-year, $48MM deal with the Dodgers, and it seemed logical to wonder if Hill could be considering retirement, given that he turns 39 in March and has dealt with a number of injuries throughout his career.  That said, it also isn’t surprising that Hill wants to keep going in the wake of his late-career revival, as the southpaw has a 2.98 ERA, 10.6 K/9, and 3.76 K/BB rate over 407 2/3 IP in 2015-18.  If Hill manages can duplicate his performance in 2019, it certainly seems like he’ll be able to land another contract (if a short-term deal) from a contending team.  “There’s a lot more left in the tank. I want that ring,” Hill said, in reference to the Dodgers’ close calls in the World Series in each of the last two seasons.

NL Notes: Kluber, Padres, Dodgers, Harper, Nats, Cubs, Boras/Phils

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The Padres persist in their dogged pursuit of Indians ace Corey Kluber, per MLB.com’s JP Morosi, who notes that the club would prefer to hold on to each of its top five prospects. The Tribe reportedly “have interest” in lefty Adrian Morejon, who, despite his status as a consensus top 50-75 prospect, wouldn’t fall into the aforementioned category in a loaded Padre farm. Still, it’s tough to see a deal consummated without one of those players; Cleveland, after all, has been widely reported to be seeking a Chris Sale-esque return for Kluber, and wouldn’t likely settle for even high-grade chaff. If the club is still interested in dealing the 32-year-old ace, the Padres would be seem a perfect fit: the club is loaded not only with blue-chip prospects, but also sport a glut of young, if underperforming, outfielders at every position. Morosi lists Manuel Margot and Hunter Renfroe as options, though the Tribe may also have its eyes on Franmil Reyes and Franchy Cordero, in addition to the richly-paid Wil Myers.

More from the Senior Circuit …

  • In the same article, Morosi reports that the Dodgers still “remain involved” in discussions for Kluber. The club certainly boasts its share of high-level farm talent – though it can’t match the San Diego riches – but thus far, under the tenure of Baseball Ops President Andrew Friedman, has been altogether opposed to dealing from the top of its farm. Multiple high-level departures would be an unequivocal sea change for the boys in blue, who may be feeling the pressure from a desperate fanbase after so many near-misses in the recent past. Adding Kluber to the top of the team’s rotation without a 25-man prune has to be tempting for even the most measured of front offices, but the slotted five (Clayton Kershaw, Walker Buehler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Kenta Maeda, and Rich Hill) already rival any in the game.
  • Though many executives questioned the veracity of the Nationals’ reported 10-year, $300MM offer to Bryce Harper on the last day of the season, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the offer was “indeed real,” and that the two sides continue to negotiate. Harper, it seems, would very much like to surpass the $325MM guaranteed to Giancarlo Stanton, though doesn’t appear to have the wind-ranging market he once envisioned. Some interested teams continue to disguise their intentions, but not the Cubs, who Rosenthal notes “would love” a shot at Harper, if only the front office could get the “unlikely” go-ahead from ownership.
  • Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia details the Fightins’ unique relationship with agent Scott Boras over the years, which reached a tipping point over 1997’s bitter dispute with number two overall pick J.D. Drew. The Phillies, of course, are set to meet with Harper today in Las Vegas, and have long been considered the near-favorite for his services. Per Salisbury, the club plans to address recent reports that the 26-year-old star is not fond of Philadelphia, which would seem to strike a death knell to the team’s chances. Among all potential suitors with near-term competitive ambitions, the Phils have the greatest need – and, perhaps, the most available cash – for Harper, and perhaps the team’s recent amenability with Boras could tip the scales in its direction.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: National League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures passed yesterday at 1pm ET, and there has been a landslide of settlements on one-year deals to avoid an arbitration hearing. We’ll track those settlements from the National League in this post. Once all of the day’s settlements have filtered in, I’ll organize them by division to make them a bit easier to parse.

It’s worth mentioning that the vast majority of teams have adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration, meaning that once arbitration figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year deal will cease. The two parties may still discuss a multi-year deal after that point, but the majority of players who exchange figures with their team today will head to an arbitration hearing.

As always, all salary projections referenced within this post are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and we’ll also be updating our 2019 Arbitration Tracker throughout the day…

Today’s Updates

  • Rounding out contract numbers for the St. Louis Cardinals, Dominic Leone will take home $1.26MM, Chasen Shreve will make $900K, and outfielder Marcell Ozuna will earn $12.25MM in his last season before free agency, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Ozuna has the most high-impact potential as he looks to rebound from a still-productive season in 2018 that saw his power output hindered at times by a balky shoulder. He still managed 23 home runs and a .280/.325/.433 slash line while playing just about every day outside of a 10-day DL stint late in August.
  • The Diamondbacks came to terms with a slew of players, per Feinsand (via Twitter), including Matt Andriese for $920K, Steven Souza Jr. for $4.125MM, shortstop Nick Ahmed for $3.6625MM, and potential closer Archie Bradley for $1.83MM.
  • The Rockies and starting pitcher Jon Gray have come to an agreement on a $2.935MM deal, per Feinsand (via Twitter). Gray had an up-and-down 2018 that is generally considered to be more promising than the optics of his 5.12 ERA make it seem.
  • The Pirates have come to terms on one-year deals with both of their arbitration eligible players, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Left fielder Corey Dickerson signs for $8.5MM, and reliever Keone Kela takes home $3.175MM. It’s a small arb class for the Pirates, whose list will grow next season as players like Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon, and Joe Musgrove, among others, reach their first season of eligibility.
  • The Dodgers signed a couple of their remaining arbitration-eligible players yesterday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter links). Utility man Chris Taylor has a $3.5MM deal, while outfield Joc Pederson settled at $5MM.

Earlier Updates

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Dodgers Acquire Russell Martin

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5:48pm: Los Angeles will take on $3.6MM of Martin’s salary, with the Jays paying the other $16.4MM of what’s still due, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (Twitter link).

1:30pm: The Blue Jays have formally announced the trade. They’ll send Martin and cash to Los Angeles in exchange for minor league shortstop Ronny Brito and minor league right-hander Andrew Sopko.

1:12pm: The Dodgers have reached an agreement on a trade with the Blue Jays that will bring veteran catcher Russell Martin back to Los Angeles, reports Arash Madani of Sportsnet (via Twitter). Martin will earn $20MM in 2019 — the final season of a five-year, $82MM contract with the Jays. Presumably, Toronto is paying down a hefty portion of that remaining salary as part of the trade.

Russell Martin | David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

The addition of Martin shouldn’t strictly take the Dodgers out of the running for Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, though there’s certainly less urgency for Los Angeles to meet Miami’s lofty asking price with this deal in place. Still, it’s not inconceivable that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman could make a strong offer for Realmuto even with Martin and Austin Barnes on the roster. Barnes has a minor league option remaining and is capable of playing the infield, and some reports have indicated that Miami would like a catcher with MLB experience as part of a Realmuto deal (in addition to multiple top prospects); Barnes could fit that description, speculatively speaking.

Soon to turn 36, Martin will bring a keen eye a the plate and strong defensive skills to the Dodgers, who of course originally drafted and developed the four-time All-Star. While last season’s .194/.338/.325 batting line obviously looks ugly, Martin walked at a nearly 16 percent clip, one of the highest rates in the league, and demonstrated that he still has a bit of pop — certainly enough to make him comparable to other catchers throughout the game. Martin hit 10 homers and recorded a .133 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average), the latter of which checked in only slightly south of the mark of a league-average catcher (.141 ISO).

Martin did hit the ball on the ground (51.2 percent) and pop up (19.4 percent of his fly-balls were pop-ups) at career-high rates in 2018, so the .234 average on balls in play he posted last season may not be as much of a fluke as it would seem at first glance. But, if he’s able to correct either of those issues in a return to Chavez Ravine, he’ll give the Dodgers a high-quality defender with excellent on-base skills. Martin’s caught-stealing numbers have dwindled recently (22 percent in 2018), but he remains a premium pitch framer and was among the best in baseball at blocking pitches in the dirt, per Baseball Prospectus’ metrics.

The trade of Martin to Los Angeles will open the door for Jays catching prospect Danny Jansen to audition as a long-term piece behind the dish. The 23-year-old Jansen has long rated as one of the organization’s better prospects and enjoyed a solid late-2018 debut with a .247/.347/.432 slash and three homers in 95 plate appearances. Jansen will team with 27-year-old Luke Maile, a strong defensive backstop who had a career-best .248/.333/.366 batting line in 231 plate appearances last season.

Brito, 20 in March, signed with the Dodgers for a $2MM bonus as a 16-year-old amateur and has yet to ascend beyond Rookie ball. He split the 2018 season between the Dominican Summer League (eight games) and the Pioneer League (53 games), posting a combined .295/.359/.496 batting line with 11 homers and 14 doubles in 262 plate appearances. He’s quite a ways from big league relevance, but he did enjoy solid production against older competition in the Pioneer League this past season.

Sopko is a 24-year-old righty whom the Dodgers selected in the seventh round of the 2015 draft. He opened the 2018 season at Class-A Advanced and ascended to Double-A midway through the season. Between those two levels, Sopko notched a 3.52 ERA with 9.3 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9. As a fly-ball righty with a low-90s heater who relies on control, his realistic ceiling is more along the lines of a back-end starter, but his success in Double-A means he shouldn’t be too far from getting a look at the big league level.

Marlins Reportedly Engaged In “Substantive” Realmuto Trade Talks

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Now that Yasmani Grandal has agreed to terms with the Brewers, the Marlins are ramping up trade talks surrounding J.T. Realmuto and are in “substantive discussions” with six teams, reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Frisaro pegs the Dodgers, Braves, Astros, Rays, Padres and Reds as the six teams still in the mix for Realmuto. Frisaro further tweets that the Dodgers “may be [the] most motivated” to land Realmuto of the six current suitors.

As one would expect, the report indicates that Miami’s asking price remains extremely high — at least one elite prospect and, in some cases, a big league catcher with some MLB experience already under his belt. For the six clubs in question, the Dodgers (Austin Barnes), Astros (Max Stassi), Padres (Austin Hedges) and Rays (Michael Perez) would best fit that billing. The Reds, too, have Tucker Barnhart as a catcher with MLB experience, though he’s signed through 2021 (plus a 2022 option) as part of a $16MM extension. He’s previously been rumored as a potential piece in talks with the Marlins, but while his salary isn’t exactly prohibitive, it’d be more logical to see Miami pursue younger, pre-arbitration options who are not yet eligible for arbitration. None of the aforementioned catchers, of course, would be a centerpiece to the deal but could give the Marlins a near-term replacement while they hope for higher-end talent to emerge from their system.

When and whether anything more significant comes to fruition remains to be seen, but the timing of the report certainly makes sense. Now that Grandal is no longer an option for teams around the league who are in the market for a catcher, the Marlins can legitimately pitch Realmuto as the primary difference-maker available. As shown in MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker, light-hitting defensive specialist Martin Maldonado is the top remaining free agent. Pirates backstop Francisco Cervelli is an option on the trade market, but he’s earning north of $11MM next season, would be a one-year rental and has some concerning recent issues with concussions.

All six of the rumored suitors have deep farm systems that also feature high-end talent, with each of the bunch possessing multiple prospects currently ranked among the game’s 50 best minor leaguers (per both MLB.com and Fangraphs). However, teams throughout the league are increasingly reluctant to part with top-tier minor league talent — particularly when the prospective trade partner is also seeking a controllable MLB-level asset in return, as the Marlins appear to be doing in Realmuto discussions.

Dodgers Acquire Jaime Schultz

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The Dodgers have struck a deal to acquire right-hander Jaime Schultz from the Rays, per Eduardo Encina of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Fellow righty Caleb Sampen is headed to Tampa Bay in return.

Schultz was bumped from the Tampa Bay 40-man roster recently when the club added fellow righty reliever Oliver Drake. Now 27 years of age, Schultz has in the past been seen as a quality prospect, though he posted rough results at Triple-A and in the majors during the 2018 campaign.

It’s not hard to see why the Dodgers front office — which is, of course, led by former Tampa Bay GM Andrew Friedman — decided to take a shot on Schultz’s right arm. Though his MLB debut last year did not go as hoped, he did show a mid-nineties fastball. Schultz has struck out 11.7 batters per nine over the course of his minor-league career, though that has also come with more than five free passes per nine.

Sampen, meanwhile, debuted last year after being taken in the twentieth round of the 2018 draft. He pitched to a 5.04 ERA in 30 1/3 Rookie ball innings, but did record a promising blend of 43 strikeouts against just nine walks.

NL Notes: Epstein, Cubs, Broxton, Braves, Dodgers

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The Cubs’ reported lack of spending capacity has been the offseason’s main storyline out of Wrigley Field, though in a recent radio interview on 670 The Score (partial transcript here), president of baseball operations Theo Epstein dismissed the idea that the Competitive Balance Tax is “dictating any of our actions or inactions this winter at all.”  In regards to the $206MM threshold, “there are times when strategically you want to make sure you’re under it or where you don’t mind going above it. This isn’t one of those offseasons where strategically it makes a heckuva lot of difference to us,” Epstein said.  “It’s just sort of traditional budgeting. You spend what you have. You don’t spend what you don’t have….We have more than enough resources to win, and that’s the way we’re going to continue to approach it.”

It should be noted that the Cubs are already over the CBT threshold, as Roster Resource calculates a luxury tax figure of slightly under $228.5MM for the current 40-man roster.  If crossing the $206MM line altogether isn’t a concern for Epstein and his front office, a bigger issue could be the $246MM threshold, which would trigger a larger tax payment for the Cubs and a ten-position drop in the first round of the 2020 draft.  If this estimated $17.5MM of payroll space is what the team really has to work with, it still doesn’t leave room for a major addition like Bryce Harper, who has been rumored as a target if the Cubs can shave some more salaries off the books.

Here’s more from around the National League…

  • The Brewers’ deep outfield and Keon Broxton’s out-of-options status made him a trade chip for the club, GM David Stearns told reporters (including the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt) in the aftermath of the trade that sent Broxton to the Mets.  “Teams are smart, so they looked at our outfield situation and saw we had a couple of out-of-option players who are talented,” Stearns said.  “Teams have been poking around on Keon since the end of the season. We discussed scenarios with different teams and this is the one that finally went over the (finish) line.”  In regards to any outfield additions, Stearns said the team will do its due diligence, but overall, “we are comfortable with the options we have at this point.”
  • “There’s no timetable for a resolution” in the dispute between the Braves and first-round draft pick Carter Stewart, Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes.  As detailed by The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) in early October, the MLBPA filed a grievance claiming that Stewart failed to reach an agreement with the Braves after his physical turned up ligament damage in his wrist, and he’s now seeking to be declared a free agent by Major League Baseball. The grievance alleges that the Braves did not offer Stewart 40 percent of his slot value, which is the minimum offer that must be made to a player in order to receive a compensation pick in the following year’s draft.  Stewart was the eighth overall pick in the 2018 draft, so Atlanta stands to be picking ninth overall in the 2019 draft unless Stewart’s grievance results in a favorable ruling for the young right-hander.  Needless to say, it would be a big setback for the Braves if they missed out on such a high pick and received no compensation whatsoever, so this situation is certainly worth monitoring in the coming weeks or months until some decision is finally reached.
  • “The degree to which the Dodgers pursue [Bryce] Harper will say a lot about where they are headed as a franchise,” Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times opines.  The Dodgers have been rumored to be suitors for Harper all winter, particularly since the team created outfield space and luxury tax space in the Yasiel Puig/Matt Kemp trade with the Reds.  Rather than a long-term mega-deal for Harper, however, the Dodgers have reportedly been more interested in offering shorter-term contracts with a higher average annual value, though Hernandez wonders why money is suddenly an object for a big-market franchise that spent freely for years.  Hernandez argues that L.A. fans won’t be impressed by a sudden restraint in spending, particularly after a season that saw the Dodgers duck under the luxury tax threshold and thus perhaps leave themselves short-handed for the World Series.
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