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Previewing The 2021-22 Free Agent Class: Second Basemen

By Anthony Franco | September 27, 2021 at 6:58pm CDT

As the regular season winds to a close, we’ll continue our position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. We’ve already covered catchers, first basemen and third basemen in greater detail, and we’ll slide over to second base this evening.

There’ll certainly be some overlap between second and third base, with plenty of utility options capable of handling either position who’ll be available. It’s also possible we see a team sign a shortstop with little or no second base experience to fill the position. Second is a less demanding spot to handle defensively, and teams with established in-house shortstops could certainly make a run at one of the top free agent shortstops on the market (Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Trevor Story or Javier Báez) and move them to the keystone as a way of injecting an impact bat into the lineup. (The Mets, already rostering Francisco Lindor, have mostly deployed Báez at second after acquiring him from the Cubs at the deadline). For our purposes, however, we’ll treat that group as shortstops and cover them in-depth later in this series.

Marcus Semien already made that switch last offseason, when the Blue Jays signed the former A’s shortstop and moved him to second in deference to Bo Bichette. It’s plausible Semien moves back to shortstop in free agency this time around, but we’ll include him as a second baseman in this exercise, since 140 of his 154 starts this year have come at second base.

Semien, unsurprisingly, tops the class:

Everyday Options

Marcus Semien (31 years old next April): Semien settled for a one-year “prove it” deal with Toronto last winter after a disappointing showing in last year’s shortened season. The hope was he’d replicate his huge 2019 campaign — one in which he finished in third place in AL MVP balloting — before re-entering free agency in search of a big multi-year deal. He’s done exactly that.

Semien leads MLB with 697 plate appearances, and he’s hitting a whopping .268/.339/.543. He’s popped 43 home runs, the fourth-highest total in the league, and stolen fifteen bags. Semien has completely regained his peak offensive form, and he’s taken to his new position with ease. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average have pegged Semien as a plus defender at second base, and it seems likely teams would be comfortable installing him everyday at either middle infield position moving forward. Semien’s age will keep him from landing the length or total guarantee of the market’s younger stars, but he’s wrapping up his second elite season in the past three years and leads all position players in FanGraphs WAR since the start of 2019. There’s no longer any doubt Semien’s an elite player, and a five or six-year deal that easily eclipses $100MM shouldn’t elude him this time around. He’s a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer.

Chris Taylor (31): Taylor’s a true super-utility type who has started games everywhere but first base and catcher this season. The bulk of his playing time has come in center field and at second base, and a club in need of keystone help could plug him in there more regularly moving forward.

Taylor has been a bit unheralded on a Dodgers’ roster loaded with superstars, but he’s been a consistently above-average hitter with passable defensive marks around the diamond. He strikes out a fair amount, but he also hits for power, walks and consistently runs high batting averages on balls in play. His bat has cooled off in the second half after a scorching start to the season. Still, Taylor’s track record and versatility make him a likely qualifying offer recipient and candidate to land a strong three or four-year contract. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently broke down Taylor’s impending free agency at greater length.

Eduardo Escobar (33): Escobar has spent the bulk of his time at third base this year, but he’s also logged 140 plate appearances as a second baseman. Teams could consider him an everyday option at either position, but his early-career days as a shortstop seem mostly to be behind him.

Escobar has had a nice season split between the D-Backs and Brewers. He owns a .249/.312/.465 line with 28 home runs and has popped 20-plus long balls in each of the last four full seasons. Escobar’s abbreviated 2020 campaign was a disaster, but that looks to be an outlier now that he’s posted his more typical production this year. He doesn’t draw too many walks, but Escobar’s a switch-hitter with power from both sides of the plate who’s a below-average but passable defender at a couple infield positions.

Potential Regulars/High-End Role Players

Josh Harrison (34): Harrison initially looked to be tailing off as he entered his 30’s, but he’s played quite well two years running. Over 545 plate appearances between the Nationals and A’s, he owns a .285/.347/.409 line with a tiny 13.4% strikeout rate. He’s earned Oakland’s regular second base job down the stretch and might have earned himself an everyday role elsewhere this offseason. Harrison doesn’t walk or hit for much power. But he puts the ball in play, can cover multiple positions and would bring a respected veteran presence to a clubhouse.

Jed Lowrie (37): Lowrie bounced back from a pair of lost seasons with the Mets to stay mostly healthy this year with the A’s. The veteran had an exactly league average .245/.318/.398 line in 512 plate appearances, split almost evenly between second base and designated hitter. His days as a regular look to be behind him, but Lowrie still gives teams a solid at-bat when healthy.

Donovan Solano (34): A light-hitting defensive specialist during his early days with the Marlins, Solano bounced around the minors for a few seasons before making it back to the bigs with the Giants in 2019. He’s been surprisingly productive ever since, posting three straight above-average hitting seasons by measure of wRC+. There’s a lot going against Solano; he doesn’t walk much or hit for power, and he’s been limited to almost exclusively playing second base. That makes him something of an imperfect roster fit, but he’s done nothing but hit over the past few years. He makes a lot of contact and owns the league’s third-highest line drive rate (minimum 500 plate appearances) going back to 2019. Teams will be wary of a player who is so reliant on ball-in-play results for his production, but Solano at least looks like a high-end role player who’ll give you good at-bats off the bench — particularly if leveraged against left-handed pitching (.325/.364/.472 in 306 PA against southpaws with the Giants).

Utility Types Who Can Handle The Middle Infield

  • Ehire Adrianza (32): Adrianza’s a capable glove-first utilityman. He’s worked in a reserve capacity for essentially his entire career, posting decent strikeout and walk numbers with little power.
  • Matt Duffy (31): Duffy has had a decent season bouncing around the diamond for the Cubs. He makes contact, uses the whole field and hits a solid number of line drives. Duffy had to settle for a minor league pact after not appearing in the majors last season, but his .275/.346/.370 line over 295 plate appearances could be enough to land a guaranteed big league job this time around.
  • Alcides Escobar (35): Escobar hadn’t played in the majors for three years before being called upon by a Nationals team dealing with a series of injuries. He’s held up surprisingly well upon being thrust into an everyday role, hitting .281/.329/.390 over 321 plate appearances and covering both middle infield positions. Escobar’s offense is still entirely dependent on hitting for a high batting average and he’s probably miscast as an everyday player, at least for teams with contending aspirations. But Escobar looks to have done enough to land a guaranteed big league deal this winter, something that seemed improbable just a few months back.
  • Leury García (31): García has had a nice few seasons on the South Side of Chicago. He’s a switch-hitting utilityman who can cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. Garcia doesn’t hit for power or draw many walks, but he makes a fair amount of contact and has been right around league average offensively over the past couple seasons.
  • Marwin González (33): González hit just .201/.281/.285 before the Red Sox cut him loose. He’s popped three homers in 28 plate appearances since re-signing with Houston, but he only owns a .250 OBP in his second stint as an Astro so far. That’s two consecutive miserable seasons for González, who followed up an outstanding 2017 campaign with back-to-back league average seasons before dropping off substantially since the start of 2020.
  • Jordy Mercer (35): Mercer missed a good chunk of the year due to injury after earning a season-opening roster spot with the Nats in Spring Training. The former Pirates’ shortstop hit for a decent average and bounced around the diamond, but his overall .262/.319/.346 line might not be enough to earn a major league deal.
  • Chris Owings (30): Owings posted huge numbers in 50 plate appearances with the Rockies this year but missed the majority of the campaign due to thumb injuries. The former Diamondback runs well and can play anywhere except catcher, but he’s a .243/.288/.372 career hitter despite playing almost exclusively in offense-friendly home ballparks.
  • Joe Panik (31): Panik looks to be in minor league deal range thanks to a .203/.263/.281 line split between the Blue Jays and Marlins this season. The left-handed hitter was a strong regular early in his career with the Giants, combining elite bat-to-ball skills, patience and defense at second base. But his impact on contact has evaporated in recent seasons, so while he still tough to strike out, Panik has posted well below-average numbers in four consecutive years.
  • Eric Sogard (35): Sogard hasn’t latched on elsewhere since being released by the Cubs in July. He stumbled to a .249/.283/.314 showing over 180 plate appearances with the North Siders, and that was marginally better than his work the year prior in Milwaukee. Sogard’s a quality defensive second baseman who has shown some signs of life at the plate in the past, but he’s squarely in minor league deal territory after back-to-back very poor seasons.
  • Jonathan Villar (31): Villar has had a nice season with the Mets, bouncing back from a disappointing 2020 to hit .249/.323/.420. That’s slightly above-average hitting, and the former stolen base champ continues to provide additional value on the basepaths. Villar’s not a great defender anywhere but he’s capable of playing throughout the infield and has a bit of outfield experience. It’s possible he’s done enough this year to earn an everyday job somewhere, although it seems likelier first-division clubs would see him as a high-end insurance option off the bench.

Players With 2022 Options

César Hernández, White Sox, $6MM club option (no buyout): Generally a high-contact, low-impact hitter, Hernández has bizarrely morphed into a low-OBP power bat this year. The switch-hitter has easily set career marks in home runs (21) and ISO (.155) but it’s come with personal lows in batting average (.228) and on-base percentage (.304). Hernández still works the count and makes a lot of contact, and it doesn’t seem as if he’s completely revamped his approach. He’s just not hitting as many line drives as he usually does, resulting in a career-worst .262 batting average on balls in play.

Exercising a $6MM option on Hernández wouldn’t be outlandish. He’s a generally steady player who combines league average offense with solid glove work (although advanced metrics are split on his defense this season). But his bottom line production — .228/.304/.383, 89 wRC+ — is his worst in six seasons, and he’s had a dreadful couple months in Chicago followed a solid start to the season with Cleveland. Those factors could lead the ChiSox to let him go, particularly since his contract with the Indians didn’t contain any sort of buyout provision, but Hernández wouldn’t have much of a problem finding a job elsewhere in that instance.

Wilmer Flores, Giants, $3.5MM club option ($250K buyout): Flores has roughly the equivalent of one full season’s worth of playing time since signing with San Francisco over the 2019-20 offseason. He’s hitting .262/.325/.472 in that time, showing power and quality bat-to-ball skills. Flores can play multiple positions and has a long history of mashing left-handed pitching. For a high-payroll club, the $3.5MM option looks like an easy yes.

Jurickson Profar, Padres, can opt out of remaining two years and $14MM: Profar surprisingly landed a three-year, $21MM guarantee from the Padres last winter on the heels of a strong 2020 showing. He hasn’t managed to follow-up on that success, though, hitting just .227/.331/.324 through 401 plate appearances. It’s hard to envision Profar opting out after this season, particularly since his contract allows him to opt out at the end of next year too. Most likely, the 29-year-old returns to San Diego in hopes of a bounceback. If that happens, he can forgo the final guaranteed year of his deal and test free agency next winter.

Matt Carpenter, Cardinals, $18.5MM club option ($2MM buyout): Carpenter’s option is a lock to be bought out. A bit of a late-bloomer, Carpenter found his stride in his late-20’s and kicked off a seven-year run from 2012-18 as one of the game’s better offensive players. His work at the plate has fallen substantially since then, particularly over the past two seasons. With a .178/.314/.297 line since the start of 2020, Carpenter might be looking at minor league offers this winter. The 35-year-old is planning on giving it another go though.

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Yoshi Tsutsugo Is Finding His Stride In Pittsburgh

By Steve Adams | September 27, 2021 at 1:42pm CDT

Expectations likely weren’t too high for most onlookers when Yoshi Tsutsugo signed with the Pirates last month. Pittsburgh was the third organization of the season for the 29-year-old Tsutsugo — a star with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball who’d struggled since signing a two-year contract with the the Rays. That contract guaranteed Tsutsugo a total of $12MM, but he never found his footing with Tampa Bay.

In 272 plate appearances as a member of the Rays, Tsutsugo batted just .187/.292/.336 with a 28.3 percent strikeout rate. He showed a bit of pop during the shortened 2020 season, at least, slugging eight homers and reaching base enough to register an even 100 wRC+ through 185 plate appearances (in spite of a poor .197 batting average). Things went much worse in 2021, as Tsutsugo went homerless with an increased strikeout rate and decreased walk rate through 85 trips to the plate. The Rays designated him for assignment on May 11.

A trade to the Dodgers didn’t bring about better fortunes. Tsutsugo appeared in only 12 games and went 3-for-25 without an extra-base hit and a dozen strikeouts. Los Angeles outrighted him off the 40-man roster in early July and released him by mid-August.

Enter the Pirates.

Pittsburgh is paying Tsutsugo the prorated league-minimum after signing him on Aug. 15, and since donning the black and gold, he’s quietly looked like the middle-of-the-order bat the Rays hoped to be signing in the first place. It’s a small sample, but Tsutsugo has flat-out mashed for the Bucs. In 117 plate appearances prior to today’s game, he’s turned in a .291/.368/.612 slash with as many home runs (eight) as he tallied in 303 plate appearances between Tampa Bay and Los Angeles.

It’s not just the long ball that’s driving the turnaround, either. Tsutsugo fanned at a 29.4 percent clip between the Rays and Dodgers, but that’s plummeted to 19.7 percent in Pittsburgh. He’s added seven doubles and a triple with the Pirates, too, bringing his extra-base hit total to 16 (just two fewer than his combined mark in his prior two organizations).

Like many other hitters in recent years, Tsutsugo has found some success by beginning to elevate the ball more regularly. His 42.4 percent ground-ball rate during his time between L.A. and Tampa Bay has dropped to just 33.3 percent with his new club. His infield-fly rate has dropped, his line-drive rate has risen a bit, and he’s improved his barrel percentage — even if his overall hard-hit rate has declined.

Defensively, the Pirates have played Tsutsugo in right field and at first base. The results in the outfield haven’t been great, which isn’t a huge surprise. He was billed as primarily a first baseman or left fielder upon coming over from Japan, but the Rays deployed him at both infield corners and in both outfield corners. Colin Moran’s presence and the lack of a designated hitter in the National League has pushed Tsutsugo to the outfield too frequently, but it’s of course possible there will be a designated hitter in the NL next season, which would open some more avenues for Tsutsugo.

This all amounts to little more than a trial run with the Pirates, as Tsutsugo’s initial contract called for him to become a free agent after the 2021 season. That’s still the case, as noted by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette last month. One would imagine that a rebuilding team like the Pirates wouldn’t have taken a post-trade deadline look at Tsutsugo in the first place without some interest in retaining him beyond the current season, though. Even if he was viewed as a mere placeholder at the time, his play in Pittsburgh ought to have piqued the front office’s interest moving forward.

Improbable as it might’ve seemed a few weeks ago, they’ll now likely face competition in that regard. After all, this is a hitter who posted a combined .293/.402/.574 batting line with 139 home runs, 116 doubles, five triples, a 15.1 percent walk rate and a 20.4 percent strikeout rate in his final four seasons of NPB action. That includes a huge 2016 season, when Tsutsugo launched a career-high 44 home runs and slashed .322/.430/.680.

Given that Tsutsugo won’t turn 30 until November and is now starting to look a bit closer to that NPB form against Major League competition, it would only stand to reason that other teams would have interest. The expected advent of a universal DH can’t hurt his chances, if it indeed comes to fruition.

It’s possible Tsutsugo will simply prefer to return to Japan, where he’d undoubtedly garner interest from other NPB clubs. However, if he’s intent on carving out a career in the Majors, his late run with the Bucs should create opportunities to do just that — whether it’s back in Pittsburgh or with a fourth organization in three years.

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Previewing The 2021-22 Free Agent Class: Third Basemen

By Steve Adams and Anthony Franco | September 24, 2021 at 10:59pm CDT

We’ve already previewed a few different positions in this year’s free-agent market, beginning with catcher and first base. Third base is up next, and I’ll note in advance that there are of course quite a few notable shortstops who could conceivably be viewed as fits at the hot corner for teams in need. Any from the Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Marcus Semien and Trevor Story ranks could surely be viewed as a candidate to slide over to third base — Semien moved from shortstop to second base in free agency last winter, after all — but they’ll all be highlighted in more depth in our look at the shortstop market.

Here’s a look at the offseason collection of third base options…

Everyday Options

Kris Bryant (30 years old next season): The clear top of this year’s class, Bryant figures to command one of the largest contracts of any free agent this winter. The former No. 2 overall draft pick, Rookie of the Year, and MVP has put a dismal 2020 showing in the rear-view mirror, bouncing back with a strong .268/.356/.496 batting line in 556 plate appearances between the Cubs and the Giants. He’s connected on 25 home runs and 32 doubles while significantly improving upon last year’s poor strikeout and walk rates.

Bryant has been a very, very good hitter — about 30 percent better than league average, per wRC+ — in three of the past four seasons. He’s a true middle-of-the-order hitter, but he’s never fully matched his brilliant 2016-17 production, when he was nearly 50 percent better than the average hitter. Agent Scott Boras will surely push Bryant as an option at either infield corner and in any of the three outfield spots, championing his client’s defensive versatility and the value that brings to a suitor. There’s plenty of truth to that, honestly, but it should also be noted that Bryant isn’t exactly a plus defender at all of those positions, either. Bryant won’t be eligible for a qualifying offer after being traded midseason.

Eduardo Escobar (33): A recent slump has tanked Escobar’s overall batting line a bit, but he’s a switch-hitter with above-average offense, plenty of pop in his bat and decent defensive marks at both third base and second base over the past few seasons. Escobar is two long balls shy of his second 30-homer season in the past three years. The 2020 season was an immense struggle for him, but Escobar has been a quality bat in the past three full-length seasons. He’s walking at a career-best 8.3 percent clip in 2021, including a 10.7 percent mark since being traded from Arizona to Milwaukee. Escobar has played plenty of shortstop in his career but has just two innings there since 2018. He’ll most likely be viewed as a pure third baseman/second baseman.

Utility Infielders with Experience at Third

  • Ehire Adrianza (32): Adrianza’s .246/.327/.392 line through 197 plate appearances isn’t too far from his career mark. He’s a glove-first, switch-hitting infielder with decent defensive marks around the diamond.
  • Asdrubal Cabrera (36): Cabrera has gone hitless since being picked up by the Reds but was only a bit worse than the league average prior to that point. He’s a veteran bench bat who can handle first base and second base as well.
  • Leury Garcia (31): Garcia has had a nice few seasons on the South Side of Chicago. He’s a switch-hitting utilityman who can cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. Garcia doesn’t hit for power or draw many walks, but he makes a fair amount of contact and has been right around league average offensively over the past couple seasons.
  • Marwin Gonzalez (33): Gonzalez hit just .201/.281/.285 before the Red Sox cut him loose. He’s clubbed three homers in 23 plate appearances since re-signing in Houston, but he’s still hitting just .182 overall there. Gonzalez posted a career year in 2017, and his bat has steadily declined since.
  • Josh Harrison (34): It’s certainly feasible that Harrison has hit his way into an everyday job somewhere next season after batting .285/.348/.414 in his past 624 plate appearances. Contending clubs might view him as more of a versatile super-utility player, but the 34-year-old has put an ugly 2019 season behind him.
  • Brock Holt (34): Holt hasn’t hit much since a nice 2018-19 run with the Red Sox, but he can play just about anywhere on the diamond. He’s played third base near-exclusively with the Rangers in 2021 (and graded well there), but Holt has experience at the three other infield positions and in all three outfield spots.
  • Brad Miller (32): Miller walks a lot, strikes out a lot and hits for power. He’s a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type who can play all over the field but doesn’t have great defensive ratings anywhere. The Phils have used him mostly at first base, but he’s also played third, second and corner outfield in 2021 while hitting .230/.320/.463 with 19 big flies.
  • Chris Owings (30): Owings posted a huge .326/.420/.628 line this year, but it came in just 50 plate appearances and is miles from his tepid career slash line of .243/.288/.372. Owings can play pretty much anywhere but catcher and has strong defensive marks at second base. His .284 OBP over his past 2000 MLB plate appearances, however, hinders his value.
  • Joe Panik (31): An elite defender at second base for much of his career, Panik played 226 innings at third this season and posted a brutal -9 Defensive Runs Saved mark. He draws his walks and is tough to strike out, but he’s also hitting just .236/.305/.319 since 2018.
  • Eric Sogard (36): Sogard popped a career-high 13 homers in the juiced-ball 2019 season but followed it up with a .232/.282/.299 slash in 2020-21. He’s a good defender at second without much offensive upside.
  • Jonathan Villar (31): Like Harrison, Villar has hit well enough this season that he could easily land an everyday role next year. Some clubs may view him as more of a utility player, but with a .254/.327/.429 batting line, 18 homers and 13 steals under his belt, Villar will get a big league deal whether he’s locked in at one position or bouncing around as needed.

Corner-Only/Platoon Bats

  • Maikel Franco (29): Franco is in minor league deal territory after being released by the Orioles on the heels of a .210/.253/.355 performance (403 plate appearances). The former top prospect had a decent showing with the 2020 Royals but has been well below-average dating back to 2016.
  • Todd Frazier (36): Frazier went just 3-for-35 before being released by the Pirates and joining the U.S. Olympic team. He smacked 21 home runs as recently as 2019 with the Mets and had a huge Spring Training in 2021, but his output during the 2020-21 seasons was well below his career standards.
  • Jake Lamb (31): A productive everyday third baseman with the D-Backs at his 2016-17 peak, Lamb hasn’t been the same since undergoing shoulder surgery in 2018. He’s bounced around between a few teams in journeyman fashion, splitting this season with the White Sox and Blue Jays before being designated for assignment by Toronto yesterday. The left-handed hitter owns a .194/.306/.368 line in 170 plate appearances between the two clubs this season.
  • Pablo Sandoval (35): The Panda’s resurgence with the 2019 Giants was a fun story, but he’s batted just .197/.294/.299 in 180 plate appearances between the Giants and Braves since that time. The Indians acquired him as a financial counterbalance in the deadline trade that sent Eddie Rosario to Atlanta, but Cleveland released Sandoval that same day.
  • Travis Shaw (32): Shaw’s Milwaukee reunion didn’t work, as he posted just a .191/.279/.337 line there before being cut loose. His return to the Red Sox, however, has been excellent: .250/.325/.583 through 41 plate appearances. It’s a small sample but still a much-needed sign of life in his bat.
  • Yoshi Tsutsugo (30): Tsutsugo’s been limited to first base and the corner outfield this season, but he started eleven games at the hot corner with Tampa Bay last season. The left-handed hitter underwhelmed with the Rays after a ten-year NPB career as one of Japan’s most fearsome power hitters. Cut loose by both Tampa Bay and the Dodgers, Tsutsugo latched on with the Pirates a month ago. He’s doing his best to put his past couple stints behind him, mashing at a .311/.394/.678 clip with eight homers in 104 plate appearances in Pittsburgh. It’s a very small sample of big league productivity, but combined with Tsutsugo’s strong NPB track record, makes him an interesting low-cost flier.

Players with 2022 Options

Kyle Seager, Mariners, $20MM club option ($3MM buyout): The Mariners’ call on Seager will be one of the more interesting option decisions a team has to make this offseason. He’s hitting a personal-worst .215 with the second-lowest OBP of his career (.292). But Seager has popped 35 home runs, bringing his overall batting line to slightly above the league average. He’s still a good defender at the hot corner and a career-long Mariner who’s been a respected member of the franchise for more than a decade. $17MM isn’t an insignificant sum, but Seattle will enter the offseason with plenty of payroll flexibility. This one feels it could go in either direction, and Seager would jump up alongside Escobar at the top of the non-Bryant market at the position if he’s bought out.

Jose Ramirez, Indians, $11MM club option ($2MM buyout): There won’t be many easier decisions for a team this winter than there is for the Cleveland front office on Ramirez’s fairly cheap option. It’s an absolute bargain for one of the best players in the sport.

Wilmer Flores, Giants, $3.5MM club option ($250K buyout): Flores has roughly the equivalent of one full season’s worth of playing time since signing with San Francisco over the 2019-20 offseason. He’s hitting .261/.323/.472 in that time, showing power and quality bat-to-ball skills. Flores can play multiple positions and has a long history of mashing left-handed pitching. For a high-payroll club, the $3.5MM option looks like an easy yes.

Matt Carpenter, Cardinals, $18.5MM club option ($2MM buyout): Carpenter’s option is a lock to be bought out. A bit of a late-bloomer, Carpenter found his stride in his late-20’s and kicked off a seven-year run from 2012-18 as one of the game’s better offensive players. His work at the plate has fallen substantially since then, particularly over the past two seasons. With a .180/.316/.299 line since the start of 2020, Carpenter might be looking at minor league offers this winter. The 35-year-old is planning on giving it another go though.

Nolan Arenado, Cardinals, opt-out clause (five years, $164MM remaining): Arenado has said on multiple occasions that he plans to forgo his opt-out clause and remain with the Cardinals long-term. Were he to unexpectedly change course, he’d be among the top names on the entire free-agent market, but that seems unlikely.

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Previewing The 2021-22 Free Agent Class: First Basemen

By Steve Adams | September 21, 2021 at 12:18pm CDT

We’ve reached the point of the season where roughly half the league is closing the book on 2021 postseason hopes and beginning to look toward the future. With that in mind, it’s time to take a look at this year’s upcoming free-agent class in some more depth. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald kicked things off over the weekend by previewing the upcoming class of catchers, and we’ll move onto first base today.

Before diving in, it’s worth briefly highlighting a few notable free agents who could technically be considered options at first base but will likely line up elsewhere. Kris Bryant has 212 innings at the position, including 92 this year. Eduardo Escobar had never played there prior to being acquired by the Brewers, but Milwaukee has given him 80 innings at first. The Red Sox have given Kyle Schwarber 35 frames at first base since acquiring him. Mark Canha played 537 innings there for the A’s back in 2015 but has just 203 innings there since — and only 11 in 2020-21.

It wouldn’t be an outright shock to see any of the bunch signed with the idea of a more permanent move to first base, but for the purposes of this series, they’ll all be discussed at greater length in future position previews.

Everyday Options

Freddie Freeman (32 years old next season): The obvious top name on the market, most onlookers expected that Freeman, the reigning NL MVP, would have signed an extension with the Braves by now. A return to Atlanta still seems the most probable outcome, even though it’s taken longer than anticipated. That said, Freeman is on the cusp of at least entertaining interest from the game’s other 29 clubs. Freeman got out to slow start in 2021 (especially by his lofty standards), batting .195/.326/.407 through his first 31 games. In 116 games since that time, he’s mashed at a .327/.407/.536 rate with 23 home runs, 20 doubles and three triples. By measure of wRC+, Freeman has been at least 32 percent better than the average big league hitter each season dating back to 2013. He just wrapped up an eight-year, $135MM contract, and despite the fact that he’ll play next year at 32 years of age, he has a chance to approach or even exceed that guarantee on a shorter deal this time around. Freeman is a no-doubt qualifying offer recipient, barring an extension between now and the point at which QOs are due.

Anthony Rizzo (32): Rizzo’s bat has dropped off since his 2014-19 peak, though he’s been more productive in 2021 than he was in a career-worst 2020 season. He’s walking at a solid but still-diminished 9.6 percent clip and is still a tough strikeout at 15 percent — albeit not as tough as he once was. Rizzo has seen 13.4 percent of his fly-balls go for home runs this year — his lowest mark since 2013. Overall, he’s batting .249/.345/.439 — good for a 112 wRC+ (or 12 percent better than league-average production). Rizzo reportedly rejected a five-year, $70MM extension offer from the Cubs back in Spring Training and is now poised to reach the open market for the first time in his career. He’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded from the Cubs to the Yankees midseason.

Brandon Belt (34): Belt’s bat looked to be on the decline from 2018-19, but he’s been better than ever from 2020-21. Over his past 142 games/531 plate appearances, Belt is raking at a .276/.384/.580 clip with 35 long balls, 26 doubles and three triples. He’s sporting a career-worst 28.4 percent strikeout rate in 2021, but he’s also connected on a career-high 26 home runs while maintaining a characteristically strong 12.9 percent walk rate. Belt entered the 2020 season with a career 88.1 mph average exit velocity and 9.8 percent barrel rate, per Statcast. In 2020-21, those numbers jumped to 89.7 mph and 16.8 percent, respectively. He’s a qualifying offer candidate himself, although not a slam-dunk to the extent of Freeman.

C.J. Cron (32): Colorado’s minor league deal for Cron paid off nicely, and while the team opted against moving him at the deadline (as was the case with nearly every Rockies trade chip), both sides have expressed interest in extending the relationship. It’s easy to see why the Rox would want to keep Cron around after he’s posted a .267/.366/.520 batting line with 27 long balls — just three off his career-best mark from 2018. As usual, Cron has crushed lefties and been solid against righties. He’s been more productive at Coors Field than on the road, but Cron has always been a better hitter at home and has been productive in the past with several other clubs. Perhaps most encouraging is that after walking at a 5.5 percent clip through his first 673 MLB games, Cron has walked at a 12.1 percent rate in 547 plate appearances dating back to his injury-shortened 2020 season. Cron’s prior OBP woes have contributed to him effectively being non-tendered on a couple of occasions, but his newfound plate discipline should serve him well in free agency. It’d be a surprise for the Rockies to issue a QO, but they march to the beat of their own drum, to say the least.

Utility Players and Platoon Bats

  • Asdrubal Cabrera (36): Cabrera has been used exclusively at the infield corners since 2020, with the exception of a single inning at shortstop in Arizona this year, but he played second regularly as recently as 2018-19. The veteran switch-hitter has surprisingly gone hitless in 22 plate appearances since being claimed by the Reds, but he batted .244/.324/.392 in 321 plate appearances with the D-backs earlier this year.
  • Todd Frazier (36): Frazier spent some time with the Pirates early in 2021 but went just 3-for-35 before being released. He served as the starting third baseman for Team USA in the Olympics this year. Frazier smacked 21 home runs as recently as 2019 with the Mets and had a huge Spring Training in 2021, but his output during the 2020-21 seasons was well below his career standards.
  • Marwin Gonzalez (33): Released by the Red Sox after an ugly .202/.281/.285 showing in 271 plate appearances, Gonzalez has returned to Houston and connected on more homers (three) in 22 plate appearances than he hit during his entire time with Boston (two). He’s batted just .239/.309/.380 in 1507 plate appearances since a career year with the 2017 Astros.
  • Jake Lamb (31): Lamb briefly turned back the clock in a late-season stint with the A’s in 2020, hitting .267/.327/.566 with three homers in 49 plate appearances. He’s hitting just .200/.313/.379 in 166 tries this season, however, and hasn’t looked the same since shoulder surgery derailed his career. Lamb hit .248/.345/.498 with 59 homers from 2016-17 with the D-backs, but it’s been a long time now since he was consistently productive.
  • Brad Miller (32): Miller has played all four corner positions and second base with the Phillies this year while batting .228/.320/.462 with 19 homers in 344 plate appearances. It’s his third straight year with above-average OPS+ and wRC+ marks. He strikes out too often to hit for a particularly high average, but Miller has power and can play nearly anywhere on the diamond, making him a nice bench piece for any contender.
  • Mitch Moreland (36): Moreland has hit for some power but is in the midst of his worst offensive campaign since 2016. He’s batted .225/.286/.415 in Oakland — a large departure from the .265/.342/.551 output he posted through 152 plate appearances in 2020. Moreland has a track record of solid defensive marks at first base, but the A’s have used him primarily as a designated hitter in 2021. Moreland’s longstanding struggles against left-handed pitching have continued in 2021.
  • Albert Pujols (42): It feels odd to sandwich a future Hall of Famer in the middle of this list. Pujols has been a better hitter with the Dodgers than he was with the Angels, but his overall output is still only a bit above-average. He’s absolutely tattooing lefties at a .305/.348/.633 clip but has posted an awful .175/.230/.263 slash against right-handed pitching. He’d be helped out substantially if the NL implements the DH, but he looks primarily like a bench bat/part-time DH against southpaws at this point.
  • Pablo Sandoval (35): The Panda’s resurgence with the 2019 Giants was a fun story, but he’s batted just .197/.294/.299 in 180 plate appearances between the Giants and Braves since that time. The Indians acquired him as a financial counterbalance in the deadline trade that sent Eddie Rosario to Atlanta, but Cleveland released Sandoval that same day.
  • Danny Santana (31): Santana is batting just .181/.252/.345 in 127 plate appearances. He enjoyed big offensive performances as a rookie with the Twins in 2013 and slugged 28 homers for the Rangers in 2019 — but he’s never managed a wRC+ better than 60 in any of his other six big league seasons. It’s been a bizarre career for Santana, who has obvious power and speed, but is a career .255/.296/.413 hitter (85 wRC+).
  • Travis Shaw (32): Shaw’s Milwaukee reunion didn’t work out too well, has posted just a .191/.279/.337 line there before being cut loose. His second reunion, a return to the Red Sox, has been excellent. It’s only 40 plate appearances, but Shaw has hit .257/.333/.600 with three round-trippers. He hasn’t had an above-average full season since 2018, but this late surge with the Sox ought to intrigue a few clubs.
  • Yoshi Tsutsugo (30): Shaw’s late rebound might be impressive, but it’s got nothing on Tsutsugo. The former NPB star has erupted with a .306/.394/.682 showing in 99 plate appearances since joining the Pirates. It doesn’t undo the disappointing production he delivered with the Rays and Dodgers from 2020-21, but it’s certainly intriguing given that he was one of Japan’s top power hitters not long ago. If you’re looking for a low-cost upside play at first or in the outfield corners, Tsutsugo is an interesting option.
  • Ryan Zimmerman (37): Mr. National is still hitting for power, with 14 dingers in 258 plate appearances, but his .244/.283/.475 slash pales in comparison to his peak. If he comes back for a 17th big league season, one would imagine it’d only be to return to the Nats.

Players with 2022 Options

Yuli Gurriel (38): I’ll be the first to admit that I scratched my head when the Astros jumped the market to extend Gurriel just as the postseason was about to begin in 2020. That one-year extension, which contains a club option for 2022, couldn’t have gone any better. Last year’s disappointing .232/.274/.384 slash is a distant memory, and with Gurriel turning in a huge .317/.383/.463 showing in 2021, next year’s $8MM option is a no-brainer to be picked up.

Wilmer Flores (30): Flores is hitting .259/.321/.470 in 617 plate appearances since signing with the Giants. He can play first, second and third base competently, and he mashes left-handed pitching. A $3.5MM club option should be an easy “yes” for the Giants.

Matt Carpenter (36): Carpenter’s option is every bit as easy a call as the other two in this section — albeit for the opposite reason. His $18.5MM club option comes with a $2MM buyout, and the Cards are sure to take the buyout after the former MVP candidate has batted just .180/.314/.299 over the past two seasons. Carpenter recently said he hopes to continue playing, but it might be time for a fresh start elsewhere for the lifelong Cardinal.

Jurickson Profar (29): The Padres’ three-year, $21MM deal for Profar was fairly surprising even before the revelation that the contract came with a pair of opt-out clauses. Profar has batted just .235/.335/.336 in 381 plate appearances this year, making it quite difficult to see him turning down a guaranteed two years and $14MM from the Friars. That’s especially true given that he could always pocket next year’s $6.5MM salary and opt out post-2022 if he has a big season.

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Garrett Richards’ Bullpen Rebirth

By Steve Adams | September 20, 2021 at 12:30pm CDT

The Red Sox’ offseason addition of right-hander Garrett Richards to their rotation didn’t pan out quite like chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom, general manager Brian O’Halloran and the rest of the Boston front office hoped. Richards got out to a solid start, pitching to a 3.75 ERA through his first 11 trips with a 20.2 percent strikeout rate, an 11.6 percent walk rate and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate. Richards wasn’t exactly dominant, but for a pitcher who’d signed a one-year, $10MM contract with a club option, the results to that point were a bargain.

Things spiraled downhill rapidly for Richards from that point forth, however. Over his next 11 starts, from June 6 through Aug. 8, Richards was clobbered for a 6.97 ERA. He went from averaging just over 5 1/3 innings per start to 4 1/3 frames, and his strikeout rate plummeted to just 14.3 percent.

This isn’t intended to serve as some form of exposé on pitchers utilizing foreign substances, but it’s important context to note that Richards, a traditionally high-spin-rate pitcher, saw his decline coincide with the league’s memo on the forthcoming foreign-substance crackdown. Richards didn’t shy away from acknowledging that he’d used foreign substances, though he insisted to Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic that he’d only ever used a combination of sunscreen and rosin. (Both McCaffrey’s June 24 and June 30 interviews with Richards are well worth a full read for context.)

“(I’m) going through a little transition period right now,” Richards told McCaffery in late June. “Changing some grips on some of my pitches, learning new pitches, just trying to figure this whole thing out.”

That “transition” period didn’t exactly pay dividends for Richards, as evidenced by the previously referenced plummet in his results. The Red Sox gave him some runway to try to sort things out, but on Aug. 11, they pulled him from the rotation and plugged him into the bullpen. So far, it’s proven to be a game-changer for both the Sox and for Richards himself.

Since moving into a short-relief role, Richards has dominated. He’s tossed 20 2/3 innings of relief, pitching to a 0.87 ERA with a 29.4 percent strikeout rate, a 9.4 percent walk rate and a 48.1 percent ground-ball rate. Richards’ fastball averaged 94.2 mph out of the rotation, and that’s jumped to 95.0 mph in the ’pen — 95.3 mph since Sept. 1.

Richards has also seen gains in swinging-strike rate (from 9.4 percent to 10.8 percent), opponents’ chase rate (27.9 percent to 34.5 percent), opponents’ average exit velocity (91.6 mph to 89.4 mph) and an overwhelming drop in his opponents’ barrel rate — from 9.3 percent all the way down to 1.9 percent. Since moving to a relief role, he’s allowed just one “barreled” ball, as measured by Statcast, and he has yet to surrender a home run.

It’s true that we’re only looking at a sample of 20 2/3 frames right now, but Richards’ dominance is going to give the Red Sox a decision that as recently as early August looked to be a foregone conclusion. The 33-year-old’s one-year, $10MM contract carries a $10MM club option for the 2022 season, which comes with a $1.5MM buyout. The Red Sox will effectively have to make a net $8.5MM decision on him for the 2022 season, and while that looked like an easy option to buy out when he was floundering in the rotation, the price tag suddenly looks much more palatable.

Some may raise an eyebrow at the notion of doling out an extra $8.5MM based on a few weeks of work in the bullpen, but there’s pretty recent precedent of a reliever being paid at that level following a similar late shift to the ’pen. When the Brewers acquired Drew Pomeranz from the Giants in 2019, they did so by somewhat surprisingly sending a fairly well regarded prospect to San Francisco in return: Mauricio Dubon. Pomeranz had made just four relief appearances when the Brewers took that plunge.

It proved to be a terrific decision for Milwaukee, as Pomeranz worked to a 2.39 ERA with an overwhelming 45 percent strikeout rate in 26 1/3 innings down the stretch. He rode that wave of momentum into free agency, where he cashed in on a four-year, $34MM contract with the Padres.

Pomeranz was excellent through his first 44 1/3 innings of that contract before undergoing season-ending surgery, but the results of his contract aren’t really consequential with regard to Richards. The mere fact that Pomeranz was able to command a four-year deal in the first place certainly suggests that the market could bear a nice multi-year guarantee for Richards, assuming he sustains this pace for the season’s final couple of weeks. Richards hasn’t quite as dominant in terms of missing bats and limiting walks, and it’s critical to point out that he’s two years older now than Pomeranz was when he hit free agency. Still, even if a four-year pact isn’t on the table, a two- or three-year contract could be feasible.

The Sox have just shy of $104MM in guarantees on the books for next season. They’ll have to make decisions on club options for catcher Christian Vazquez ($7MM) and left-hander Martin Perez ($6MM). Boston also owes $16MM to the Dodgers under the David Price trade. Even with those additional financial considerations, this is a former luxury-tax payor who came close to paying the tax in 2021. Payrolls in the $200MM range aren’t out of the norm in Boston. A net $8.5MM decision on a reliever who has looked largely unhittable late since moving out of the rotation is something they can afford if they’re sold on Richards’ renaissance in the bullpen.

If the Sox ultimately decide to buy Richards out and pursue other bullpen options, that could work out even better for the right-hander. He’d suddenly be one of the more interesting options in a free-agent class of relievers that doesn’t feature many high-end names. Whatever path the Sox choose, the decision to move Richards out of the rotation looks like a good one for all parties at this point.

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Previewing The 2021-22 Free Agent Class: Catchers

By Darragh McDonald | September 19, 2021 at 9:50pm CDT

There are now just two weeks remaining in the 2021 regular season, and while the immediate focus is on the playoff races, a potentially eventful offseason is waiting just over the horizon. There are a lot of unknowns at the moment, especially with the elephant in the room: the expiring collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA expires on December 1st, and there are many questions about what will come after that, especially with regard to service time, luxury tax, qualifying offers, and many other issues.

So, which players will be navigating these uncharted waters? Let’s take a look, starting with the catchers. (Players’ age for the 2021 season is listed in parentheses.)

Everyday Options

  • Yan Gomes (34): Gomes is probably the top of the class, which should tell you how weak this year’s catching market is as a whole. That’s not to take anything away from Gomes, who is having another solid season. But there won’t be any massive catcher contracts given out this year like there were last year for J.T. Realmuto and James McCann. Gomes was last on the market after helping the Nationals win the World Series in 2019. The Nats re-signed him to a two-year, $10MM deal and then traded him to Oakland at this year’s deadline. On the season as a whole, he’s hitting .252/.295/.425, for a wRC+ of 91 and 1.2 fWAR. Gomes has been fairly reliable health-wise, having only spent about three weeks on the IL over the past five years, missing most of July 2021 with an oblique strain.
  • Manny Pina (34): Pina has been playing backup to Omar Narvaez in Milwaukee this season but has done well enough that some club could view him as an everyday option, as he’s having a solid season. In 67 games, he’s hitting .201/.312/.459, for a wRC+ of 106. His walk and strikeout rates have both improved compared to recent seasons as well, suggesting there may be something sustainable there. Combined with his quality glovework, he’s been worth 1.6 fWAR on the year. Since having his contract selected by the Brewers in August of 2016, he is hitting .248/.318/.417, for a wRC+ of 94.

Backup/Timeshare Candidates

  • Robinson Chirinos (38): Chirinos had to settle for a minor league deal with the Yankees in the most recent offseason. After being released in July, he was signed to a major league deal by the Cubs. Since then, he’s been a solid backup/bench contributor, slashing .232/.330/.463 over 100 plate appearances. Apart from an awful showing in the shortened 2020 season, Chirinos has a wRC+ over 100 every year from 2015-2021.
  • Sandy Leon (33): Leon signed a minor league deal with the Marlins in the offseason and had his contract selected April 21st. Since then, he’s appeared in 77 games, garnering 209 plate appearances with a slash line of .187/.236/.259. His wRC+ of 40 would be his fifth straight year under 70 in that department.
  • Jeff Mathis (39): Mathis has long had a reputation as a defensive specialist and has appeared in the majors in each of the past 17 years, despite never providing much with the bat. He got into three games with Atlanta this season before being designated for assignment in May and hasn’t played since.
  • Wilson Ramos (34): Ramos was signed by the Tigers in the winter to a one-year, $2MM contract. In 35 games, he put up a tepid line of .200/.238/.392, a wRC+ of 66. He was eventually released and caught on with Cleveland, where he starting hitting a little bit better. But after just nine games, he tore the ACL and sprained the MCL in his right knee, ending his season. Ramos isn’t too far removed from a 2019 season that saw him hit .288/.351/.416 for a wRC+ 105, but his health will be the major concern for him now.
  • Austin Romine (33): Romine, alongside the aforementioned Chirinos, has been backing up Willson Contreras for the Cubs. Romine missed a good chunk of the season with a wrist injury and has only gotten into 21 games this year and has barely hit in that small sample, slashing .188/.188/271. However, it hasn’t been too long since he was last productive, as he had solid seasons for the Yankees in both 2018 and 2019. Over those two years, he got into 150 games and hit .262/.302/.428, for a wRC+ of 94. But after a down year in 2020 and an injury-marred 2021, he’ll probably have to settle for a minor league deal in the coming offseason.
  • Kurt Suzuki (38): Suzuki had four straight solid years at the plate from 2017 to 2020, having his wRC+ above 100 in each of those seasons. Overall, in that timeframe, he hit .272/.337/.475 for a wRC+ of 111. But after signing a one-year, $1.5MM deal with the Angels in January, it’s been a disappointing campaign for him. He’s hitting .221/.285/.337 for a wRC+ of 73 and has largely served as a backup to Max Stassi.

Players with Contractual Options

  • Tucker Barnhart, $7.5MM club option with $500K buyout: Barnhart will be turning 31 in January and is about to finish the guaranteed portion of the extension he signed with the Reds before the 2018 season. Since that time, he has provided fairly consistent production, combining an adequate bat with solid defense. From 2018 to 2020, he hit .237/.324/.376, wRC+ of 85. In 2021, he’s taken his offense up a notch, slashing .263/.336/.397 for a wRC+ of 97, producing 1.9 fWAR. The club will now have to decide if that decent production is worth $7.5MM. (There are escalators that could take the option up to $9MM, though the thresholds aren’t publicly known.) The solid rookie season of Tyler Stephenson could lead the Reds to consider Barnhart expendable, which would add another everyday option to the market.
  • Roberto Perez, $7MM club option with $450K buyout: Perez had a $5.5MM option picked up for the 2021 season despite a down year in 2020, though it hasn’t worked out for the soon-to-be Guardians. Due to injuries, Perez has only played 36 games this year and has hit a meager .139/.250/.313. His last full season, 2019, was quite good, however, as he hit .239/.321/.452 for a wRC+ of 99. If Cleveland thinks he can get back into that form, he’d be well worth $7MM, but it’s more likely the always-frugal club just cuts him loose. The 33-year-old could make for an interesting buy-low, bounceback candidate.
  • Buster Posey, $22MM club option with $3MM buyout: In 2019, it was certainly starting to seem that this option was a lock to be bought out. Posey was 32 years old and saw his wRC+ drop below 100 for the first time, outside of a cup of coffee as a 22-year-old. However, sitting out the 2020 season seems to have done wonders for him, as he’s bounced back tremendously, hitting .299/.389/.503. His wRC+ of 142 is the highest since mark he’s had since 2014, helping the Giants outpace the most optimistic predictions for 2021, launching them ahead of the consensus favourite Dodgers to the top of the NL West. It now seems a no-brainer for the Giants to pick up the option and keep Buster around for his age-35 season.
  • Christian Vazquez (31): Vazquez is within striking distance of increasing the value of his option. Originally valued at $7MM with a buyout of $250K as part of the extension he signed in 2018, the option would increase to $8MM if Vazquez reached 502 plate appearances in each of 2020 and 2021. In the shortened 2020 campaign, Vazquez logged 189 plate appearances. Due to the shortened season, all thresholds were prorated by 2.7, meaning those 189 plate appearances counted for 510. This year, he’s at 468 for the season, meaning he’d need 34 more plate appearances in Boston’s final 11 games to get that extra million onto the option. All that said, it’s a minor difference, and Vazquez seems worth the price, despite a slightly mediocre season. He’s hitting .263/.315/.353 on the year, a wRC+ of 81. But with his solid defense, he’s still been worth 0.7 fWAR so far this year. And over 2019 and 2020, he hit .278/.327/.472, producing a wRC+ of 105 accrued 4.9 fWAR.
  • Mike Zunino, $7MM club option with $1MM buyout: When the Rays re-signed Zunino in December, the club option was valued at $4MM, with escalators based on games played. Zunino would have to play 100 games to max out the value at $7MM, something he’s already done. The reason the Rays have played him so much is because he’s been excellent. Zunino strikes out a lot and doesn’t hit for a high batting average, but more than makes up for it with his power. His 31 homers on the year have helped him produce a slash line of .201/.290/.549 for a wRC+ of 127. Combined with his quality defense, that adds up to 3.9 fWAR, which is fourth in the majors among catchers. You can never be certain of these things with a hyper-budget-conscious organization like the Rays, but Zunino’s option seems all but guaranteed to be picked up.
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MLBTR Poll: Who Will Be The AL’s Wild Card Teams?

By TC Zencka | September 18, 2021 at 9:10pm CDT

This season marks the beginning of what should be a competitive era of Blue Jays baseball, but like all good stories, this one began in the middle. Toronto continued their second half surge today with their 83rd win. Over the past year, the Jays have supplemented young cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette with an impressive collection of veterans including George Springer, Marcus Semien, Jose Berrios, and two years ago, Hyun Jin Ryu.

Buying low and hitting on reclamation projects like Robbie Ray, Steven Matz – and even Semien – further fueled their organizational turnaround. Give the development team credit for turning less-heralded pieces like Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Jordan Romano into significant supplemental assets. Young pitching has started to arrive as well, with Alek Manoah impressing in his first 17 starts and Nate Pearson hitting triple-digits in limited usage out of the bullpen.

Charlie Montoyo’s club has pushed all year, but only recently have they angled their way into the AL’s playoff quintet. In fact, today’s win puts them back into playoff position with 14 games to go. Per Fangraphs’ playoff odds, the Jays are well-positioned with a 62.6 percent chance of nabbing one of the two wild card spots.

The Yankees don’t have the momentum of their northern neighbors, but this team is better than the negative press would have you believe. It’s a tough road to hoe, however, with just 13 games remaining and their final nine against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays. Put positively: the Yankees control their own fate. A loss today dropped them a half game behind the Jays, but patience is key.

Good thing, because they Yankees aren’t just the tallest team in the AL, they’ve also been the most patient with a 10.4 percent walk rate. Pairing a walk-heavy approach with the power bats of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, Luke Voit, Joey Gallo and Gary Sanchez ought to be a recipe for success. They’ve been six percent better than average as a group since the trade deadline, but their offense ranks just around the middle of the pack on the year: they rank 9th in the AL in runs, 8th by ISO, 6th by wOBA and 7th by wRC+.

The pitching staff has carried the day, however, ranking 2nd in the AL by fWAR, strikeout rate, ERA, and SIERA, and 3rd by FIP. Gerrit Cole has lived up to his billing as one of the game’s few true frontline starters. But he’s not alone, as Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Nestor Cortes Jr., Jordan Montgomery, Luis Gil, and Domingo German have all provided valuable innings.

Regardless, they will enter play tomorrow 1.5 games behind the Red Sox for the top wild card spot. Boston nabbed their 85th win of the season today, pushing their playoff odds to a robust 85.8 percent. They trail the Rays by 7.5 games, so Tampa’s hold on the division is ironclad, but Boston seems a safe bet to find themselves in the wild card game.

That said, a 1.5 game lead with 12 to go isn’t quite ready to take to the bank. Alex Cora’s team does have the benefit of a soft schedule the rest of the way. Not only do they have the least amount of games remaining among the contenders, but they will happily circle the Beltway for four against the Orioles and three against the Nationals. They have two with the Mets and three with the Yankees, but the BoSox could even mitigate a tough series against the Yanks by taking care of business against inferior teams in those other nine games.

The Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees pose the most compelling cases among the wild card hopefuls because of their divisional rivalries and star power – but they aren’t alone. There are a pair of contenders out west who are still hanging around this race.

The Athletics were largely expected to take a step back this season after losing Semien, Liam Hendriks, Tommy La Stella, Robbie Grossman, and Joakim Soria to free agency. But Bob Melvin has turned in another solid season from the bench, steering this club to 80 wins (and counting) and a .544 win percentage. As of this writing, Oakland sits 2.5 games out of a playoff spot with a lead early in their game against the Angels. Chris Bassitt’s return may provide an emotional boost, but with their final four series switchbacking against the Astros and Mariners, they have an uphill climb ahead.

Speaking of the Astros, they have a seven game lead over Oakland for the AL West and a magic number of nine. With six head-to-head match-ups remaining, the A’s could theoretically overtake Houston to win the division, but that’s not all that likely. Houston has a 99.4 percent chance to win the division right now, so that’s probably where they’ll be after game 162.

The Mariners round out our group of potential playoff teams from the American League. They have six more games against a beatable Angels team, but Scott Servais’ crew remains a long shot contender. They are 3.5 games behind Toronto with three teams to leapfrog and a 1.3 percent chance to play beyond the regular season, per Fangraphs.

The Mariners’ aren’t toast yet, but with seven head-to-head match-ups with the A’s still to come, the two western contenders are likeliest to eliminate one another from wild card contention. These final games count the same as any other, however, and something like a 12-2 finish from either the Mariners or A’s wouldn’t be unheard of. All we can say for sure is that it won’t happen for both teams.

MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk ran through the NL Wild Card contenders just a few days ago, and more than 50 percent of readers went chalk in voting the Cardinals to keep their hold on the NL’s last playoff spot. Now’s your chance to make the call for the AL contenders. Will the Red Sox and Blue Jays hold on? Can the Yankees, A’s, or Mariners yoink a ticket to postseason play? What say you?

(Link to poll for app users)

(Link to poll for app users)

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Chris Taylor And The Ben Zobrist Contract

By Darragh McDonald | September 16, 2021 at 11:18pm CDT

Much ink has already been spilled, or pixels illuminated, about the upcoming offseason and the superclass of shortstops. Even though the Mets extended Francisco Lindor and took one of the most intriguing names out of the pool, it’s still going to feature such marquee names as Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javier Baez and Marcus Semien. But there’s one name that’s also on the list that is sometimes overlooked. If you’ve read the headline to this piece, then you already know I’m talking about Chris Taylor.

Perhaps the reason Taylor doesn’t quite fit in with the rest of that group is that he’s not exactly an everyday shortstop like the rest of them. (Semien has been playing mostly second base this year, but only because of the presence of Bo Bichette next to him. He could very easily return to shortstop duty with a new club next season.) Taylor is more of a utility guy who is capable of playing some shortstop, if needed. He’s appeared at the position in each of the past eight seasons, but never more than 81 games. Also, he reached that number back in 2018. In 2019, that number dropped to 39. In the shortened 2020 season, it was 20 games, exactly one third of the 60-game reduced schedule. This year, it’s only been 22 games so far. The fact that he’s not considered an everyday option is at least somewhat borne out by statistics. To give one example, of the 46 players to log at least 1000 innings at shortstop over the past five years, Taylor’s UZR/150 of -7.5 ranks 43rd, in the vicinity of guys who don’t play at short much anymore, such as Aledmys Diaz and Manny Machado.

Still, even though he’s not an everyday option, he has versatility, which is something teams love. Taylor has also played second base, third base and all three outfield positions this year, meaning that he could conceivably be plugged into the lineup of any team in the league and move around to their area of greatest need. That could potentially give him tremendous leverage in free agency this winter, just as it did for Ben Zobrist six years ago. Zobrist was able to use that vast market to net himself a four-year, $56MM contract with the Cubs in December of 2015. Could Chris Taylor get something like that? Well, let’s compare.

For starters, Taylor will have a distinct advantage over Zobrist in one category: age. Zobrist was set to turn 35 in May of 2016, shortly after making his Cubs debut. Taylor just turned 31 two weeks ago. Taylor will be 3 1/2 years younger while on the market this winter than Zobrist was back in 2015, meaning a team could potentially be willing to put an even longer contract in front of Taylor.

Secondly, in terms of defense, although Zobrist had shortstop experience, he didn’t play there in 2015. Then he only logged 15 innings at shortstop over the course of his time with the Cubs. Clearly, the club wasn’t expecting him to provide significant time there. Nor was he an option in center field. His last action there was seven games for the Rays in 2014. Taylor, on the other hand, has played 56 games in center this season and 181 over the past five years. Although much was made of Zobrist’s versatility, he was primarily a second baseman and corner outfielder by the time he signed with the Cubs. Due to Taylor’s ability to play almost everywhere, including premium positions like shortstop and center field, he brings more versatility to the table than Zobrist did at that time.

That’s age and defense, but what about the bat? Since becoming an everyday player in 2017, Taylor has played in 610 games and logged 2,349 plate appearances over those five seasons. His line in that time is .266/.344/.464, which amounts to a wRC+ of 118. In the five years leading up to Zobrist’s contract, he played 742 games and logged 3,229 plate appearances, with a line of .272/.359/.437, wRC+ of 124. Zobrist has the higher batting average but Taylor has more power and ends up with fairly similar production overall.

That’s being a bit unfair to Zobrist because it leaves out his monster 2009 season wherein he hit .297/.405/.543 for a wRC+ of 152 and produced 8.7 fWAR. However, that was a distant memory by the time the Cubs signed Zobrist heading into the 2016 season. You don’t sign a player who’s about to turn 35 based on what he did when he was 28. However, by the same token, one could argue that we shouldn’t be including Taylor’s excellent 2017 season because he was 26 then but is 31 now. If we shrink the sample down to the three years before free agency, Zobrist’s line is .274/.356/413, wRC+ of 117, whereas Taylor’s line is .262/.345/.459, wRC+ of 117.

Okay, so, Taylor is like a younger and more versatile version of 2015-2016 Zobrist, and very similar with the bat. One major unknown at the moment, though, is what kind of momentum he will bring into the offseason. One thing I’ve failed to mention thus far is that Zobrist entered free agency on the heels of an excellent playoff performance, having just helped the Royals win the 2015 World Series. In that postseason, Zobrist played in 16 games, garnering 75 plate appearances, producing a line of .303/.365/.515, wRC+ of 133.

Taylor is in the opposite position right now, slumping terribly over the past month. Since August 13th, he’s hitting .136/.217/.272, wRC+ of 34. It seems this slide could at least be somewhat chalked up to a neck injury that has kept Taylor out of action for almost a week now. But the Dodgers haven’t placed him on the injured list, which suggests they don’t think it’s terribly serious. Teams are surely able to overlook a small, injury-caused slump amidst a solid five-year run of success. Though it would certainly help Taylor’s earning power if he could prove that’s all it is by getting back to being healthy and productive. The window for him to do that is getting narrow, however, since there’s just over two weeks remaining in the regular season. The Dodgers have already clinched a playoff berth of some kind, but they’re 1 1/2 games behind the Giants in the race for the NL West crown, meaning they’re guaranteed only one postseason game.

Another wrinkle is the qualifying offer. Zobrist was traded mid-season in 2015, making him ineligible for it. Taylor, on the other hand, will most likely receive one, assuming his long-term health outlook is okay. That means that any team signing him would have to forfeit their second-highest draft pick, or third-highest, if they are a revenue-sharing recipient. That would certainly dampen his market somewhat.

Taking all of that into account, where does that leave us? Zobrist got four years, $56MM, which is an average annual value of $14MM. Taylor will be more versatile and almost as good at the plate. Bake in a few years of inflation and Taylor could aim for a few extra million per year. Because of his age, and assuming no lingering questions about his health, maybe he gets five years instead of four. So, does some team go to five years, $80MM? That certainly feels high, especially given that DJ LeMahieu just got $90MM from the Yankees before this season. (LeMahieu is also older and less versatile than Taylor but was coming off a tremendous two-year stretch at the plate.)

Perhaps the qualifying offer knocks that down some and Taylor actually can’t quite get to Zobrist levels. Maybe this is a bit too optimistic in Taylor’s favor. Still, despite his recent slump, Taylor’s wRC+ is currently sitting at 118 for the season. Baez is at 121. Trevor Story is at 99. Taylor might not be as much of a household name as those two, but his earning power might be closer to them than you think.

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Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals Chris Taylor

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Poll: Who Will Be The NL’s Second Wild Card Team?

By Mark Polishuk | September 16, 2021 at 6:00pm CDT

The Giants and Dodgers have both booked their tickets to the 2021 playoffs, though it remains to be seen which club will be NL West champions and which will have to walk the one-game tightrope that is the wild card game.  While the identity of the first NL wild card entry is an either/or situation, the battle for that second wild card slot is still completely wide-open with less than three weeks remaining in the regular season.

The Cardinals held a one-game lead in the standings heading into today’s action, and since the Cards aren’t playing today, they’ll still retain at least a half-game edge when they resume play tomorrow in a crucial three-game series against the Padres.  St. Louis wasn’t even a .500 team (53-55) on August 5, but the team has since gone 23-14 to re-establish itself as a contender.  Both Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill have been on fire at the plate since that August 5 date, while Adam Wainwright has continued to turn back the clock with an excellent season.  The Cardinals were criticized for a lack of big moves at the trade deadline, though new additions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ have been solid enough to help stabilize the rotation.  Following the three games with San Diego, the Cardinals’ remaining schedule is entirely against the Brewers and Cubs.

The Padres enter that pivotal St. Louis series going in the opposite direction.  For much of the season, it looked like both NL wild card slots would come from the West division, as San Diego battled alongside the Giants and Dodgers for supremacy.  However, San Diego’s 22-30 record since the All-Star break has left the Padres battling just to get into the postseason.  It has been more or less a team-wide funk over those 52 games, as the Padres rank 24th in baseball in both wRC+ (92) and pitching fWAR (2.5) in the second half, though the rotation at least has the excuse of multiple injuries.  It doesn’t help that the Padres also have a very tough remaining schedule — all of their remaining games are against the Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, and Braves.

Even after today’s 1-0 victory over the Pirates, the Reds still have just five wins in their last 17 games, stumbling back in the standings after a nice surge in late July and early August.  Speaking of scheduling, Cincinnati hasn’t done well to take advantage of some weaker opponents, as that 17-game window has included losing series to such weaker opponents as the Marlins, Cubs, Tigers, and Pirates (and a 2-4 record against the Cardinals).  With 10 remaining games against the Pirates and Nationals, the Reds’ schedule still offers plenty of opportunity to bank wins, and the impending return of Jesse Winker should be a major boost to the Cincinnati lineup.

The Phillies still have a shot at the NL East even if they can’t capture the wild card, but after going 2-6 in their last eight games, the bottom line is that Philadelphia needs to get hot in a hurry.  The Phils begin a three-game set against the Mets tomorrow and face the Braves in a three-game series at the end of September, but the schedule is otherwise not difficult on paper — 10 games against the Orioles, Pirates, and Marlins.  While the bullpen and the back of the rotation continue to be an issue for the Phillies, MVP candidate Bryce Harper is doing his best to try and carry this inconsistent team into the playoffs.

The old “Miracle Mets” nickname might need to be dusted off if 72-75 New York can somehow squeak into the playoffs as either a wild card or as the NL East champions.  The Mets are five games out of the division lead and 5.5 games out of the wild card entering today, leaving them with essentially no margin for error the rest of the way.  Losing this series with the Phillies might all but officially end the Mets’ chances, but nine games against the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox still loom on the upcoming schedule.

Just to cover our bases, the NL East-leading Braves will also be included in the poll just in case the Phillies or Mets do steal the division.  (Though one would imagine that in that scenario, the Braves would have to slump badly enough to take them out of wild card contention as well.)  Following a scorching hot 16-2 stretch in August, Atlanta is only 8-12 over its last 20 games, which is just enough to make things interesting in September.  The Braves end their season with six games against the Phillies and Mets, and also have a ten-game road trip featuring six games against the Padres and Giants sandwiched around a four-game set with the cellar-dwelling Diamondbacks.

Who do you think will capture that second wild card slot? (Link to poll for app users)

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Atlanta Braves Cincinnati Reds MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres St. Louis Cardinals

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Extension Candidate: Teoscar Hernandez

By Mark Polishuk | September 7, 2021 at 10:17am CDT

To some extent, Teoscar Hernandez has been a bit of an overlooked figure on the Blue Jays roster.  He wasn’t part of the homegrown core of young talent, he isn’t exactly young himself since he turns 29 in October, and he wasn’t one of the major free agent signings that have played such key roles for the Jays in 2021 and (the team hopes) into the future.  Hernandez did get a turn in the spotlight when he was voted into the American League’s starting All-Star lineup this past July, marking some overdue recognition of a player who has quietly been one of baseball’s best hitters over the last 26 months.

If “26 months” seems like something of an arbitrary timeline, it is because Hernandez has a pretty clear line of demarcation at almost the exact midpoint of his career.  Prior to July 16, 2019, it wasn’t like Hernandez was a bad player, as he even hit 22 home runs for Toronto during the 2018 season.  However, power was much pretty much all Hernandez had to offer over the first 971 plate appearances of his MLB career, as he swatted 42 home runs but batted only .231/.292/.447.  This led to a 96 wRC+, and between that below-average offensive production and a very subpar outfield glove, there was some question about whether or not Hernandez could develop into anything more than a part-time player.

Needless to say, those questions have been answered.  Hernandez hit a home run against the Red Sox in that July 16 game and then hit two more homers the next day, essentially heralding his arrival as a first-rate hitter.  Over Hernandez’s last 916 plate appearances, he has hit 59 home runs and slashed .285/.343/.548 slash line.  His 136 wRC+ since July 16, 2019 has been topped by only 12 qualified hitters in all of baseball, and he is also tied for eighth in slugging percentage in that timeframe.

Hernandez made some mechanical changes to his swing during a minor league demotion earlier in 2019, though there isn’t really a simple “lightbulb switched on” reason why Hernandez was suddenly much more productive.  Looking at his numbers pre- and post-July 16, 2019, Hernandez’s walk rates have actually declined in the last 26 months, while his strikeout rates have gone from being almost league-worst to merely bad.

Hernandez always made plenty of hard contract, and with a .350 BABIP during the productive half of his career (and a .296 BABIP beforehand), there is some level of good fortune involved in Hernandez’s rise.  That said, Hernandez has helped himself by making more contact in general and hitting more line drives, with his above-average baserunning allowing him to translate that hard contact into hits.

Turning to the defensive side, Hernandez has worked to become a respectable outfielder after struggling so badly in the field earlier in his career.  Over 926 innings (707 in right field, 212 in left) this season, Hernandez has a +0.1 UZR/150 and +1 Outs Above Average, while the Defensive Runs Saved metric still gives him a -2 score.  While a Gold Glove probably isn’t in Hernandez’s future, he has at least proven that he isn’t a DH-only player — which could prove important to his future earning potential.

Hernandez was arbitration-eligible for the first time this season, and avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $4.325MM salary.  He’ll get a sizable raise coming this winter, and then another in the 2022-23 offseason before becoming eligible for free agency following the 2023 campaign.  Should Hernandez keep up his level of offense next year, he should earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $17MM in 2022-23 before hitting the open market prior to his age-31 season.

That is, unless the Blue Jays keep him off the open market by working out a contract extension.  With two-plus years remaining of control over Hernandez, the Jays aren’t in any immediate rush to make a decision one way or the other, and naturally quite a few other matters will need to be addressed in the interim.  Re-signing impending free agents Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray seem to be a priority for the club, and one would imagine the Jays will make a hard push to extend Jose Berrios (a free agent after 2022) given how they surrendered such a notable prospect package to acquire him from the Twins at the trade deadline.  Elsewhere on the extension front, Toronto might also look to land some long-term cost certainty over cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, even though both are already controlled through the 2025 season.

In short, Hernandez might find himself somewhat overlooked again, if the Jays are content to go year-by-year.  However, there is some logic in the team exploring a longer deal with the slugger right now.  While the Blue Jays are one of the league’s best offensive teams, the lineup will take a big hit if Semien leaves, and the future depth has been a bit depleted — Cavan Biggio has struggled through an injury-plagued year, Rowdy Tellez was traded to the Brewers, and top prospect Austin Martin was dealt in the Berrios swap.

Speaking of the prospect ranks, the Toronto farm system has plenty of intriguing infielders and pitchers, but the Jays are short on young outfielders ready to make an impact at the big league level.  While that could change in the two years before Hernandez hits free agency, the lack of young outfield depth was one reason the Jays felt compelled to sign George Springer this past offseason.  There isn’t anyone immediately coming to push for Hernandez’s role, and in any case, Hernandez would seem to have a lot more job security than the much more inconsistent Randal Grichuk and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.  Grichuk is signed through 2023 but has provided below-average offense in Toronto, while Gurriel is controlled through 2024 but has been part of trade rumors in the past.

Only Hernandez himself (and maybe his agents at Republik Sports) would know the answer to this subject, but the outfielder also might be eager to lock in the first big payday of his professional career.  Hernandez made more in 2021 than he did in the rest of his career combined, as he received only a $20K bonus when first signing with the Astros back in 2011.  While $7MM+ in arb earnings is lined up for 2022, Hernandez might not want to run the risk of injury or a downturn in performance next season, so he could be open to a deal of fewer additional years, but maybe a higher average annual value in 2024 or 2025.

Grichuk’s four-year/$47MM deal in April 2019 is the only major multi-year extension of the Ross Atkins era, so there isn’t much of a hint about how this front office might approach a Hernandez extension, or if such a deal is even truly on their radar.  The trade that brought Hernandez to Toronto is already one of the canniest moves of Atkins’ tenure as GM, and that trade will only look better if a deal can be worked out so Hernandez can continue to be a big part of the Blue Jays lineup for years to come.

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Extension Candidates MLBTR Originals Toronto Blue Jays Teoscar Hernandez

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