Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLBTR Originals

Recalibrating Expectations For Luis Urias

By | at

Luis Urias was a top prospect coming up in the Padres’ system at a time when San Diego had one of the best farm systems in baseball. The Padres avoided overtures to deal Urias for more established talent year after year. After intermittent opportunities in 2018 and 2019, Urias was shipped to Milwaukee in one of the more interesting challenge trades in recent memory: the Padres sent Urias and southpaw Eric Lauer to the Brewers for outfielder Trent Grisham and righty Zach Davies.

At the time – late November of 2019 – Grisham was at a low point, fresh off ending the Brewers season with an unfortunate bounce on a Juan Soto single that knocked Milwaukee out of the wild card game. Grisham had played admirably in a 51-game stint mostly standing in for the injured Christian Yelich – not at all an easy task, given his legendary status at the time. But the way the season ended definitely left a poor impression about Grisham’s future. Of course, Grisham would go on to win a Gold Glove Award as a centerfielder the next season, reminding us that a single moment in time cannot define a player’s career. The now-25-year-old has grown his well-rounded game enough to place him among the most promising centerfielders in the sport.

A similar lesson might be taken from the first few seasons of Urias’ career. His first season with the Brewers looked a lot like his first few years in San Diego. Following the 2020 season, Urias’ career triple-slash line was a punchless .226/.315/.320, a performance 24 percent below-average. The lack of pop wasn’t shocking, as power was never his calling card. His offensive potential was built on a keen eye at the plate and bat-to-ball skills that routinely produced batting averages of .290+ while in the minor leagues.

Urias, who’s still just 24, turned it around in the 2021 campaign, posting a 111 wRC+ while slashing .249/.345/.445 with 23 home runs. Oddly, it was his power that drove the improvement as his isolated power jumped to .196, an above-average mark that helped sustain a move to the more power-expectant position of third base. If last season’s output represents a new baseline for Urias, our typical understanding of the aging curve suggests that Urias ought to have at least another 5-6 seasons of being a very good baseball player.

If the high-average, high-on-base-percentage player that Urias had been throughout his minors career re-animates for the Brewers in 2022, the Brewers might really have a star player on their hands. They might need one, too, because, somewhat ironically, where once Grisham stood in for an injured Yelich, an improved Urias helped pick up the slack for a lessened Yelich in 2021. With Yelich no longer performing at the superhuman levels of his MVP seasons, and Lorenzo Cain beginning to show his age, the Brewers had to rely on a more egalitarian approach at the plate in 2021. Urias was a big reason why the Brewers were able to weather Yelich’s decline from a 170 wRC+ superhero in 2018-19 to an all-too-mortal 105 wRC+ in 2020-21. Willy Adames carried much of the load after his arrival from Tampa, but even his transformation into a middle-of-the-order bat (135 wRC+) didn’t come close to matching the firepower of Yelich in his heyday.

Manager Craig Counsell mixes-and-matches to maximize the production of an imperfect offensive roster, and he’s done so dating back to Yelich’s MVP years. The Brewers scored 754 runs in 2018 when Yelich won the MVP, 12th-most in the Majors, then 769 runs in 2019 when Yelich finished second, 15th-most in MLB. They scored just 247 runs in the truncated 2020 season when Yelich’s production first dipped, a mark that fell to 26th overall and resulted in a 29-31 season that barely qualified them for an expanded playoffs. Last season, they made the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season while scoring 738 runs, which landed them back at 12th overall in the Majors. In other words, the Brewers offense was about as good as it’s ever been with Yelich on the roster, despite Yelich himself producing barely better than average.

The Brewers under Counsell and GM David Stearns have always been a pitching-first organization, and that’s likely to continue in 2022 behind a rotation that’s among the most well-rounded in all of baseball. Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta boast mind-bending pure stuff, but they’re buttressed by a pair of steady-eddies in Adrian Houser and Lauer, Urias’ traveling mate from San Diego. When healthy, Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Brent Suter make up the core of a formidable bullpen, not to mention Aaron Ashby, the hard-throwing, bespectacled southpaw who appears to be the next big arm to establish himself on Counsell’s staff.

Pitching dominance, however, now more than ever, is prone to whims of injury and year-to-year variance. Less length from starters means spreading the innings load to more pitchers than in days’ past, and that means spreading the potential for variance around as well. There are plusses and minuses to meting out that responsibility to so many arms. The Brewers pitching staff has ranked among the game’s best by fWAR the past two seasons, but nothing is guaranteed on the hill. The offense will need to carry their own water.

There are paths to Milwaukee scoring enough runs to cover even an unforeseen letdown from the pitching staff, but as of right now, they’re gambles. Obviously, a bounceback season from Yelich would do wonders. A rejuvenated Cain in his age-36 season would be amazing, however unlikely. Even another season from Adames at his Milwaukee potency would register as a pleasant surprise.

The list goes on. They need Keston Hiura to find the form that made him a top prospect bat. They need Hunter Renfroe and Tyrone Taylor to make up the production left behind by the departed Avisail Garcia. They need Rowdy Tellez to maintain his role as a power force, though year-to-year consistency has eluded the southpaw slugger in the past.

Urias, now stationed at the hot corner, might be the safest best of them all. Heading into last season, the sheen had worn off of Urias, and the prospect of his realizing the potential that was once heaped upon his 5’9″ frame was as unlikely as any of Milwaukee’s annual offensive gambits, and yet here we are. The Brewers not only need Urias to be a star, but it’s not wholly unfair to expect it.

The Padres’ Rotation Depth Should Draw Plenty Of Trade Interest

By | at

As fans look forward to the inevitable post-lockout transaction bonanza, those hoping to see their favorite teams add to the starting rotation are often focused on the Reds and Athletics as potential trade partners — and with good reason. Both Oakland (Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas) and Cincinnati (Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle) have three pitchers whom they could feasibly trade in order to cut payroll and add some young talent to the organization. The Marlins, too, are an oft-suggested trade partner for teams needing starting pitchers, even after already dealing Zach Thompson to the Pirates in December’s Jacob Stallings swap.

That said, while those three teams draw much of the focus, the asking prices there will be high. Teams will want alternatives, and the Padres are likely to receive a good bit of interest from those clubs. That’s not because San Diego is embarking on any sort of rebuilding effort, but rather because of the team’s plethora of rotation options and the ever-aggressive, never-rule-anything-out nature of president of baseball operations, A.J. Preller.

Since taking the reins in San Diego, Preller has taken multiple offseasons or trade deadlines by storm with a flurry of activity. The “rock star GM” moniker bestowed upon him by Matt Kemp has become infamous, but Preller repeatedly lives up to the spirit of the nickname by demonstrating a flair for bold, dramatic strikes that reshape the organization.

The Padres staff struggled through injuries and some surprising ineffectiveness in 2021 but is still deep with arms who either have ample big league success or considerable upside. San Diego’s 2022 rotation currently projects to include Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Mike Clevinger and NPB returnee Nick Martinez, who agreed to a surprising four-year, $20MM contract prior to the lockout after a dominant showing in Japan.

Beyond that quintet, the Padres could have another full rotation’s worth of intriguing arms, albeit some of whom have had some recent struggles and/or injuries. Right-hander Dinelson Lamet has had the most recent success of the bunch, utterly dominating in the shortened 2020 season — 2.09 ERA 34.8% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate in 69 innings — before a UCL strain kept him from contributing in the postseason. He missed much of the 2021 season on the injured list and wasn’t as effective upon his return, but he’d be a front-of-the-rotation talent if his arm held up. The Padres may use him in relief this season, but there’s a big ceiling to dream on with Lamet, who’s controlled via arbitration through 2023.

Righty Chris Paddack has yet to regain the form he showed in a 2019 debut campaign that saw him in Rookie of the Year contention before falling to injury. He was diagnosed with a slight UCL tear late last season but is expected ready for the ’22 campaign. Paddack registered a pedestrian 4.95 ERA in 167 1/3 innings from 2020-21, but he’s still only 26 years old and boasts one of MLB’s lowest walk rates, in addition to a fastball that averages nearly 95 mph. He’s controlled through 2024.

Lefty Adrian Morejon, one of the prize signings from Preller’s international signing blitz during the Padres’ rebuild, will be returning from Tommy John surgery in 2022. His MLB experience is limited, but he’s still just 22 and ranked among the sport’s top 100 prospects for a half decade while rising through the system. He’s still under club control through 2025.

Another southpaw, Ryan Weathers, was the No. 7 overall draft pick back in 2018. Though he only recently turned 22, Weathers debuted in the Majors this past season and held his own early on before a rocky finish. Weathers carried a 2.73 ERA (albeit with shakier peripheral marks) through 62 2/3 innings before being clobbered over the final two months and closing out the season with a 5.32 earned run average. It was a rough finish, but Weathers is a 22-year-old former top pick and top prospect with a strong (albeit brief, thanks to the wiped-out 2020 season) minor league track record.

Twenty-five-year-old right-hander Reiss Knehr doesn’t come with the prospect fanfare that some others in the system do, but he still rode a strong minor league effort to his Major League debut late in the season. A 20th-round pick in 2018, Knehr notched a 3.57 ERA with strong ground-ball rates through 75 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A before getting the call to the big leagues. His 4.97 ERA and 20-to-20 K/BB ratio in the Majors won’t wow anyone, but it was only 29 innings for a 24-year-old rookie who’d never pitched above A-ball coming into the season.

Most enigmatically, southpaw MacKenzie Gore remains in the Padres’ system but has seen his stock plummet. A former No. 3 overall pick who entered the 2020 campaign ranked among the top 10 prospects in all of baseball, the 22-year-old Gore (23 next month) has yet to receive a call to the big leagues even as the Padres have repeatedly dealt with injuries and tapped into the depths of their system.

Gore got out to a dismal start with Triple-A El Paso in 2021, struggling enough for the Padres to push the reset button by taking him out of games and sending him to their spring facility to work on refining his mechanics. When he took the mound again late in the season, Gore looked stronger, posting a 2.67 ERA with a 43-to-16 K/BB ratio in 30 1/3 innings (six starts) across Rookie ball, Class-A Advanced and Double-A. He’s fallen completely off Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects list, but Gore is still young and teeming with raw talent. A few sharp months in Triple-A would have him right back on the cusp of the Majors.

That’s not even the full extent of San Diego’s near-MLB depth, either. Righty Pedro Avila may ultimately end up in the bullpen but has had some Double-A/Triple-A success and already gotten his feet wet in the Majors. Right-hander Adrian Martinez, 25, was selected to the 40-man roster prior to the lockout after dominating in Double-A and reaching Triple-A for the first time in 2021.

Thanks to a slew of win-now trades, the Padres’ farm system isn’t what it once was, but the wealth of pitching depth they’ve accumulated is nevertheless impressive. It also provides Preller and his lieutenants with fodder to make virtually any type of trade imaginable, and history has shown us that more often than not, Preller’s Padres will do just that. The nice part, however, is that there’s no pressure to move any one specific individual. Each of Paddack, Morejon, Weathers, Knehr, Gore, Avila and Martinez has minor league options remaining, so there’s no “on-the-bubble” pitcher who runs the risk of being exposed to waivers at the end of Spring Training.

With so many rotation options on hand, there’s any number of avenues the Padres could pursue following the transaction freeze. Holding onto the lot is, of course, a perfectly defensible route to chart, but even if the Padres aren’t actively shopping pitchers, other teams will come calling. Pitching-needy teams like the Nationals, Twins, Rangers, for instance, might like to get their hands on someone like Paddack or Weathers — a controllable arm without an immediate path to regular innings on the MLB roster in San Diego.

It’s also worth recalling the multiple points at which it was reported that the Padres had explored the possibility of getting out from under the remainder of Eric Hosmer’s contract. Both the Rangers and the Cubs at least entertained the possibility of taking on Hosmer as part of a deal that would net them a high-end prospect, and while there’s no guarantee those specific talks will be rekindled, it’s easy to dream up scenarios where Hosmer would be packaged with some young pitching to help facilitate a deal. Similar scenarios with Wil Myers make some sense, too.

To be clear, the Padres don’t need to move any of their rotation depth. Beyond the fact that all of the candidates listed here have options remaining (outside of the projected Opening Day quintet), San Diego will soon have a need for some new blood in the starting staff. Both Musgrove and Clevinger are free agents after the 2022 season. Snell and Darvish are signed through 2023 (the same point at which Lamet can first become a free agent). They’ll need some of these young arms to step up and solidify themselves as long-term options.

Still, the Padres are typically among the most aggressive and active clubs in baseball, and few teams have such a deep reserve of near-MLB rotation candidates. At the very least, other clubs throughout the league are going to be trying to pry some pitching loose from San Diego — particularly now that the free-agent market has been largely picked over. There’s a whole lot of focus on the available starters in Oakland and Cincinnati, but asking prices will be high there, and teams still in need of pitching are going to be mining the market for alternatives. San Diego has more of those than most.

MLBTR Poll: Predicting Michael Conforto’s Contract

By | at

Whenever teams are again permitted to make major league transactions, clubs in search of corner outfield help will have to sort through a still-strong class. Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber and Seiya Suzuki are unsigned, as is third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant. All those players seem in line for significant multi-year contracts, but it’s not as clear whether that’ll be the case for Michael Conforto.

Conforto looked to be on the path to a huge deal after hitting .265/.369/.495 (133 wRC+) between 2017-20. Set to hit free agency in advance of his age-29 campaign, a nine-figure contract didn’t seem out of the question at the start of last season. Yet Conforto went to post his worst results since 2016, a .232/.344/.384 mark with 14 home runs over 479 plate appearances.

That offensive output was still six percentage points better than the league average, by measure of wRC+. The former tenth overall pick walked in a robust 12.3% of his trips to the dish to keep his on-base percentage at a respectable level. He played his home games in Citi Field, one of the more pitcher-friendly environments around the league. Yet for a player limited to the corner outfield, a 106 wRC+ is more fine than especially impressive.

Teams will have to determine how to weigh Conforto’s platform year against his prior four-year run of strong play. From a process perspective, there are some reasons for optimism. Last season’s 21.7% strikeout rate was a personal low, a couple points lower than the league mark. As mentioned, his plate discipline remained strong. His rates of hard contact and barrels (essentially hard-hit batted balls at the optimal angle for power production) were down a tick from his best years but still above-average. It wouldn’t be surprising if Conforto rights the ship moving forward, particularly if he signs with a club that plays in a more hitter-favorable setting.

So Conforto should still be an appealing free agent target, but he’s coming off a much worse platform year than both Castellanos and Schwarber. A long-term investment in Conforto probably feels riskier to teams now than it would’ve eight months ago. And any signing club will have to forfeit a draft pick, since the Washington native received and rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets.

There wasn’t much indication as to where Conforto might end up prior to the lockout. The Marlins were the only club known to have substantive interest. Miami already signed Avisaíl García, but they’re reportedly still on the hunt for an addition in the grass. Beyond the Fish, the clubs reaching out to Conforto’s representatives at the Boras Corporation remain a mystery. So that doesn’t offer much indication about how robust the market might be.

Nor is it clear how much money Conforto and his reps are seeking. Schwarber, though, is reportedly looking for a three-year deal in the $60MM range. The two players were born just five days apart in March 1993, and they’ve been similarly productive since the start of 2019. But with Schwarber coming off the much better platform year, it seems likely he’ll land the larger guarantee of the two whenever they both put pen to paper.

Entering the offseason, MLBTR projected Conforto would sign a one-year deal in the $20MM range in hopes of a bounceback season before re-testing the market after 2022. That could be a possibility, although his decision to turn down New York’s $18.4MM qualifying offer suggests he wanted to explore multi-year opportunities (or at least loftier single-year proposals) from suitors around the league.

Where does the MLBTR readership expect Conforto’s contract to end up?

(poll links for app users)

For How Many Years Will Michael Conforto Sign?
One 32.77% (1,746 votes)
Three 32.02% (1,706 votes)
Two 21.70% (1,156 votes)
Four or more 13.51% (720 votes)
Total Votes: 5,328

 

In What Range Will Michael Conforto's Guarantee Fall?
Between $18.4MM and $30MM 34.17% (1,667 votes)
Under $18.4MM 21.15% (1,032 votes)
Between $45MM and $60MM 16.66% (813 votes)
Between $30MM and $45MM 14.63% (714 votes)
Between $60MM and $75MM 8.14% (397 votes)
Over $75MM 5.25% (256 votes)
Total Votes: 4,879

 

How AL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2021

By | at

We covered the NL list on Sunday, and now let’s look at what the American League’s 15 teams have thus far done to upgrade their weakest positions (as gauged by the bWAR metric) of the 2021 season…

Angels (Shortstop, -1.0 bWAR): No team in baseball had a lower non-pitching bWAR than the Angels’ 7.1 number in 2021.  Beyond Jose Iglesias’ woes at shortstop, Los Angeles also received sub-replacement production in left field (-0.7), right field (-0.2) and third base (-0.1).  Considering Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon spent much of last season on the injured list, their returns should instantly shore things up, and top prospects Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh are also expected to play bigger roles in the outfield mix.  This leaves shortstop as the biggest problem area, and while Tyler Wade was acquired from the Yankees, Wade might be better suited for a utility role — the Angels also continued to have interest in Chris Taylor after Wade was acquired, and before Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers.  With the Halos continuing to focus on pitching, it remains to be seen if they’re also willing to make a big investment in the shortstop position.

Astros (Catcher, 0.6 bWAR): Houston isn’t likely to tinker with the defensively-sound Martin Maldonado/Jason Castro tandem, yet more will be expected at the plate, particularly from Maldonado.  While never even a league-average hitter during his career, Maldonado particularly struggled last year, batting only .171/.272/.300 over 426 plate appearances.

Athletics (Designated hitter, 0.5 bWAR): Between league-average offense from Jed Lowrie and subpar production from Mitch Moreland and Khris Davis, the DH spot was a weak link in Oakland’s lineup.  All three players are free agents are may not return, and this may just be part of the forthcoming roster overhaul as the A’s are reportedly looking to cut payroll.  In this regard, the DH spot may be on the back burner to some extent, as the A’s might just use in-house options or a low-cost veteran or two to rotate at-bats in the position.  The DH barely edged out shortstop (0.6 bWAR) as the Athletics’ weakest position of 2021, but Elvis Andrus is currently expected to return at shortstop, given the difficulties involved in trading him.

Blue Jays (Third base and center field, 1.5 bWAR each): A healthy season from George Springer should take care of the center field spot, leaving the Jays to deal with third base and the second-base vacancy that now exists due to Marcus Semien’s departure.  The consensus feeling is that Toronto will deploy a Cavan Biggio/Santiago Espinal platoon at one of the two infield spots and find another everyday player for the other, and the Jays are open to thinking big, as they were reportedly interested in Corey Seager before Seager signed with the Rangers.

Guardians (Catcher, -0.3 bWAR): Cleveland chose to decline its $7MM club option on Roberto Perez, leaving the Guardians with a tandem of Austin Hedges (who was tendered a contract and is projected for a $3.8MM salary) and minor league signing Sandy Leon.  While there’s still plenty of room for improvement, the Guardians have traditionally prioritized defense and game-calling ahead of offensive production from their catchers, so it’s possible they might only add another veteran on a minors deal to provide Leon some competition.

Mariners (Center field, -1.0 bWAR): The M’s only got 1.6 total bWAR from their outfield, the second-lowest total of any team.  Left field produced only 0.2 bWAR, while right field was a much more respectable 2.4 bWAR (thanks in large part to Mitch Haniger).  With Kyle Lewis hopefully healthy, Jarred Kelenic hopefully adjusted to big league pitching after a tough rookie season, and uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez hopefully ready for his MLB debut in 2022, Seattle’s outfield issues may resolve themselves.  However, since that’s a lot of “hopefully” for a team intent on ending its playoff drought, the Mariners have been linked to such major outfield free agent targets as Kris Bryant and Seiya Suzuki.

Orioles (Second base, -2.0 bWAR): With the bullpen delivering -1.5 bWAR and third base -0.9 bWAR, it took some doing for the Orioles’ second base revolving door to take the backhanded top prize as the least-productive position on a 110-loss team.  Rougned Odor was signed to be at least a placeholder at the position, though if the former Ranger does enjoy any first-half success, the O’s could certainly flip him at the trade deadline.  Recent international signing Cesar Prieto is an intriguing wild card for the second base job later in the season, if Prieto is able to make a quick transition from Cuban baseball to affiliated ball.

Rangers (Left field, -0.7 bWAR): For all the money they’ve spent this winter, the Rangers haven’t directly addressed the left field spot, though the signing of Kole Calhoun (likely slated for regular right field duty) should improve the outfield mix as a whole.  Texas is another team known to be in the Seiya Suzuki race, and given how aggressive the Rangers have already been, pursuits of Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, or other major bats or trade targets can’t be ruled out.  2021 All-Star Adolis Garcia could be an option in left field if the Rangers don’t use him in center, and beyond Garcia, the Rangers’ internal left field options include Nick Solak, Willie Calhoun, and Eli White.  Beyond the left field spot, Texas has already signed Jon Gray, but pitching stands out as another major need on the to-do list — Rangers starters combined for a -0.1 bWAR in 2021, while the bullpen was an even 0.0.

Rays (First base, 1.6 bWAR): As deep and versatile as the Rays were in 2021, it isn’t surprising that they had the highest bWAR of any of the “worst” positions on this list.  The Yandy Diaz/Ji-Man Choi platoon was unspectacular but solid, though it is interesting that Tampa Bay has already traded away other infield depth options (Joey Wendle, Jordan Luplow, Mike Brosseau) in respective deals with the Marlins, Diamondbacks and Brewers.  This could be a hint at a forthcoming move, or perhaps the Rays were just shuffling the deck as always with their roster depth.  For instance, Brandon Lowe could be used at first base more often now that Vidal Brujan and Taylor Walls are ready for bigger roles on the MLB roster.

Red Sox (First base, 0.1 bWAR): If Bobby Dalbec’s second-half surge truly represents a breakout, then the Sox may already have their answer at first base.  Nonetheless, it stands to reason that the Red Sox will add depth in the form of a (probably left-handed hitting) multi-position player, as that player could then contribute elsewhere on the diamond once top prospect Triston Casas makes his expected MLB debut at some point in 2022.  There have also been some whispers that the Red Sox might have a bold move up their sleeves, so we can’t rule the possibility that Boston could acquire someone like Freddie Freeman or Matt Olson, or maybe land a third baseman and shift Rafael Devers over to first base.

Royals (Right field, -1.2 bWAR): Kansas City didn’t get much from right field or the corner infield spots, as third base (-1.0 bwAR) and first base (-0.7 bWAR) were also sub-replacement level positions.  Hunter Dozier is a key figure in this equation, as he dragged down all three positions with his rough showing in 2021.  Carlos Santana also contributed to the first base woes with the worst season of his career, but the veteran slugger believes he can rebound now that he is past the leg injuries that hampered him last year.  The Royals have help on the way in star prospects Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Pratto, and with Pratto a defensive standout at first base, Santana might find himself relegated to DH or part-time duty unless he can recapture his old form.  Witt is primarily a shortstop but he has played some third base, giving the Royals some flexibility in handling third base and right field depending where any of Witt, Adalberto Mondesi, Nicky Lopez, or Whit Merrifield are lined up on a regular basis.  It’s possible K.C. might pick up a relatively inexpensive veteran bat to lessen the pressure on the young kids, but the Royals aren’t likely to make a big position-player investment until they see what they really have in Witt, Pratto, and Kyle Isbel.

Tigers (Shortstop, -0.5 bWAR): It was widely expected that the Tigers would make a play for one of the big shortstops in the free agent market, and that box was checked when Javier Baez was signed to a six-year, $140MM deal.  With star prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene on the cusp of the majors, their arrivals should boost some other weak positions in Detroit’s lineup.  Tigers second basemen accounted for -0.2 bWAR, but with Torkelson playing first base, Jonathan Schoop can move over to the keystone.  Likewise, Greene is expected to play center field, which allows for a cleaner fit of Akil Baddoo as a left fielder, which will help the Tigers’ collective 0.3 bWAR in left last year.  Of note — Detroit had the lowest designated hitter bWAR (0.1) of any American League team, as even seven NL teams got a little more from their DH position in interleague competition than the Tigers did over 81 home games.  It makes for a bit of a conundrum with Miguel Cabrera, as his knees won’t allow him to take regular duty at first base, yet Cabrera hit decidedly better as a first baseman than as a DH last season.

Twins (Starting pitching, -1.4 bWAR): Dylan Bundy was signed to a one-year/$5MM contract, but given Bundy’s own struggles in 2021, Minnesota still has a lot of work to do in rebuilding its rotation.  A big splash can’t be ruled out, considering the Twins did express some interest in Robbie Ray prior to Ray signing with the Mariners, but it doesn’t seem likely that the Twins will make a major long-term commitment to more than one new pitcher.  Beyond that hypothetical addition, any other new arms will likely take the form of shorter-term acquisitions (such as trade targets with one or two remaining years of control) or rebound-candidate free agents like Bundy.

White Sox (Right field, 0.6 bWAR): While second base is seen as Chicago’s biggest problem area, the Sox at least got 0.9 bWAR out of the keystone last year.  Then again, between Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets, the White Sox have a lot more options to at least make do in right field, whereas the depth chart at second base is the re-signed Leury Garcia and not much else.  A free agent like Josh Harrison or Jed Lowrie could at least be a stopgap, but with not much second base help remaining on the open market, the White Sox certainly seem like a team that would be looking to swing a notable trade.

Yankees (Left field, -0.1 bWAR): Powered largely by Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees combined for 7.4 bWAR from the right field and DH positions in the 2021.  The other seven non-pitching positions combined?  Only 5.4 fWAR, with left field standing out as the one sub-replacement total of the group.  New York hasn’t done much in general this winter, but in regards to the outfield, they parted ways with Clint Frazier and added Ender Inciarte as minor league depth.  Many of the Yankees’ outfield questions circle around Aaron Hicks’ health or whether or not Joey Gallo hits better over a full season in the Bronx, and another return for Brett Gardner can never be ruled out.  However, the outfield certainly stands out as a spot for the Yankees to make a splashy addition, if they’re willing to move beyond their recent modest (at least by Yankees standards) spending output.

Trade Candidate: Tyler Glasnow

By | at

The Rays find themselves in a tricky position with regards to Tyler Glasnow. The 6’8″ right-hander is probably the team’s most talented pitcher. Last season, he looked on the way towards solidifying himself among the best in the sport. Through his first 14 starts and 88 innings, Glasnow posted a 2.66 ERA with a fantastic 36.2% strikeout rate and a solid 7.9% walk percentage.

Glasnow has always had the raw stuff to miss bats in droves, but as he entered his mid-20s, he’d seemingly found the control to match. He has the ability to be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Unfortunately, his health hasn’t yet allowed him reach that upside. Glasnow missed a good chunk of the 2019 season due to a forearm strain. He stayed healthy during the abbreviated 2020 campaign, but he didn’t make it through 2021 unscathed.

Last June, Glasnow suffered a partial tear of the UCL in his throwing arm. After unsuccessfully attempting to rehab the injury, the California native underwent Tommy John surgery two months later. That obviously brought his 2021 season to a close, and it’ll likely cost him all of 2022 as well. The timing of that procedure leaves the Tampa Bay front office with a decision to make regarding his long-term future in the organization.

Glasnow is arbitration eligible for the third of four times this offseason. He’s on track to hit free agency after the 2023 season. With next season likely a wash, Glasnow’s club is looking at one year (2023) of production before he can test the open market. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.8MM salary this year, and he’d likely earn the same amount the following season.

So that’s around $12MM over two years for one season of Glasnow’s services. Given the caliber of pitcher he is, that could be a bargain if he returns to form in 2023. Yet as Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of the Athletic wrote last summer, it’s not clear how heavy a workload a team could reasonably anticipate Glasnow to work that year even if his recovery goes as planned. While he shouldn’t have much issue being ready for the start of 2023 — barring unexpected setbacks in his rehab process — he might not be equipped to shoulder a 180-inning workload. Between injuries and the pandemic, Glasnow will have tossed just 241 2/3 MLB innings between 2019-22, including the postseason (assuming he misses all of next year).

As is typically the case with the Rays, there’s also their team spending limitations to consider. Tampa Bay entered last season with a player payroll a bit south of $67MM, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Including arbitration projections, Jason Martinez of Roster Resource pegs their 2022 commitments in the $84MM range. That’s not much compared to the rest of the league, but it’d be a franchise-record sum for Tampa Bay. Is ownership willing to support that kind of expenditure entering the season? Even if so, would the front office prefer to reallocate Glasnow’s projected money as they attempt to make a run at their fifth consecutive 90-win showing?

The Rays aren’t going to move Glasnow solely to shed salary. Were that the case, they’d have simply non-tendered him before November’s deadline. But they seem likely to consider trade offers, particularly if they can get help for 2022 in return. Rosenthal and Lin reported Tampa Bay and the Cubs kicked around trade formulations involving Glasnow and Kris Bryant and/or Craig Kimbrel before last summer’s deadline. Those obviously didn’t come to fruition, but the Rays will probably look into similar possibilities after the lockout.

Any team with designs on contending in 2023 could be a plausible trade partner. A retooling organization like the Cubs or Nationals could take on a few million dollars during a non-competitive season with an eye towards a quick rebound after selling off pieces last summer. An immediate contender with more near-term financial flexibility than the Rays have could see this as a buy-low opportunity. Trades of players this talented between contenders are uncommon, but given the Rays’ financial situation and the timing of Glasnow’s surgery, a deal during the expected post-lockout transactions frenzy wouldn’t be surprising.

The Rangers Shouldn’t Ease Up After The Lockout

By | at

Many teams effectively sat out the free-agent market prior to the lockout, and the Rangers took full advantage of the lack of activity from some of the sport’s top spenders. Led by longtime president of baseball operations Jon Daniels, second-year GM Chris Young and an ownership group that clearly isn’t interested in a protracted rebuild, the Rangers doled out more than half a billion dollars to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray and Kole Calhoun. For most clubs, spending more than $500MM in free agency would seem a defensible point at which to call it a day, but if the Rangers are serious about returning to contention sooner than later, they’re not likely to be satisfied with, ahem, “just” Seager, Semien, Gray, etc.

The 2021 Rangers, to put things charitably, were a disaster. Texas lost 102 games and batted a combined .232/.294/.375. The resulting 84 wRC+ (indicating that their collective offense was 16 percent below league average) tied for the third-worst mark in MLB. Rangers hitters ranked 28th in total runs scored, 26th in home runs, 29th in walk percentage and dead last in on-base percentage.

If the Rangers boasted a deep and talented pitching staff, perhaps the additions of Seager and Semien alone would be enough to foster hope, but we know that’s not the case. Texas starters ranked 28th in the Majors in ERA (5.33) and FIP (5.19) alike — and that’s including the contributions of the since-traded Kyle Gibson, who provided 113 innings of 2.87 ERA/3.76 FIP ball.

The signing of Gray gives the Rangers a big arm on which they can dream, but Gray, Dane Dunning and Taylor Hearn are the only pitchers on the roster who reached 100 innings and posted even passable results. It’s questionable to even include Hearn in that trio, as nearly all of his success came out of the bullpen (5.82 ERA in the rotation versus 3.54 out of the ’pen in near-identical samples of innings). The only pitcher currently on the roster who posted an ERA better than Dunning’s 4.55 out of the rotation last season is right-hander A.J. Alexy, who logged a 2.79 ERA in 19 1/3 innings but also walked nearly as many hitters as he struck out (13 walks, 14 punchouts).

Things are a bit rosier in the bullpen, where Texas will welcome back injured closer Jose Leclerc, who missed 2021 due to Tommy John surgery. Impressive young righty Jonathan Hernandez is likely to return at some point in 2022 as well after missing this past season following his own Tommy John procedure. The Rangers can also look forward to full seasons from standout rookie Joe Barlow and NPB returnee Spencer Patton, who began the 2021 season in Triple-A but pitched effectively following his June call to the bigs.

Suffice it to say, even with the big splashes they’ve made to date, the Rangers don’t yet look like a contender. That’s not news to the Texas front office, which made these moves despite surely being aware that even if everything breaks right in ’22, they’re at best a long-shot to vie for a playoff berth.

That said, there’s already indication that the Rangers aren’t planning to take their foot off the gas when transactions resume. Texas has been linked to star NPB outfielder Seiya Suzuki, who has been posted by the Hiroshima Carp and will sign with an MLB club once the transaction freeze lifts. The Rangers were also reportedly looking into the asking price on division-rival star Matt Olson, and they chatted with the Reds about Cincinnati’s collection of available starting pitchers. Manager Chris Woodward even went so far as to acknowledge that the team has been in contact with free agent Clayton Kershaw — a Dallas-area resident who is a first-time free agent this winter.

Onlookers may question how the Rangers can afford this level of spending spree. However, Texas has gone to great lengths to pare its payr0ll in recent years, and rather than “rebuild” through three to five dismal seasons of tanking and cultivating draft picks, it seems the Rangers plan to instead use their fiscal might in conjunction with a pair of lofty draft statuses (2021 and 2022) in hopes of an accelerated retooling.

In terms of club payroll, the Rangers only have about $127MM committed to next year’s books, in the estimation of Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That figure will drop to around $80MM in 2023. For a club that has previously run payrolls as lofty as $165MM (in 2017), there’s a good bit of financial leeway for further additions — particularly those that could impact the roster beyond the 2022 season.

A multi-year deal for the 27-year-old Suzuki, for instance, makes good sense for a Texas club that currently figures to shuffle Nick Solak, Willie Calhoun and Eli White through left field and DH at-bats. Texas is also among the more reasonable fits for 29-year-old lefty Carlos Rodon, who was one of the best pitchers on the planet in 2021 but ended the year with some troubling shoulder concerns. Agent Scott Boras — who also represents both Seager and Semien — has said Rodon is seeking a multi-year deal. We’ve seen the Rangers issue some surprising three-year deals in the past (e.g. Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Gibson) — albeit in the $30MM range, which is likely a good ways south of where Rodon is aiming. Trade candidates like Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, Pablo Lopez and other starters with multiple years of control should also be squarely in the Rangers’ sights, particularly if any are amenable to extensions.

Relatively youthful free agent pitchers and trade targets with multiple years of club control (and/or an openness to an extension) will be paramount, given the lack of high-end pitching prospects knocking on the door in Arlington. This past season’s No. 2 overall draft pick, Jack Leiter, could be a fast mover but has yet to throw a professional pitch. Righty Cole Winn, a 2019 first-rounder, briefly reached Triple-A last season and could eventually give the team a mid-rotation arm. That’s about the extent of the team’s high-upside pitching prospects who are at least within striking distance of the big leagues, so pairing some veterans with Gray and Dunning will be crucial if Texas hopes to turn things around come 2023.

Around the diamond, things are a bit more steady. Adding Seager and Semien gives the team a pair of lineup linchpins, and top prospect Josh Jung should debut in 2022, pushing slick-fielding Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a utility role in which he could thrive. There’s room for a bat like Suzuki in left field, as previously alluded to, and the team’s interest in Olson suggests a willingness to upgrade over Nate Lowe at first base (or at least to push Lowe to a DH role). Catcher Jonah Heim has a brutal season at the dish in 2021, but the Rangers are hoping prospect Sam Huff can eventually seize that spot.

By 2023, the Rangers will be free of the dead-money commitments owed to Elvis Andrus and Rougned Odor. The only arbitration raise of any note slated for the 2023 payroll (and for the 2022 payroll, for that matter), is that of Kiner-Falefa. Semien, Seager and Gray are the only three players whose ’23 salaries are guaranteed. You can argue that it’s wiser to wait until next offseason, but if that were the plan, the team wouldn’t have already spent to the extent it has. To give their aggressive mindset the best chance to succeed, the Rangers should add at least one more arm and one more bat to the mix. They certainly have the payroll capacity to do just that.

How NL Teams Have Addressed Their Weakest Positions Of 2021

By | at

Since the lockout has resulted in close to two very quiet months of offseason activity, teams will have plenty to do once the Major League transactions freeze is finally over, including addressing many of the positions on this list.  However, some teams have already taken steps to fix their more glaring weak spots from the 2021 season (as determined by bWAR).  Let’s take a look at the progress that has been made, with the note that we’ll ignore the DH position for this look at National League teams…

Braves (Catcher, -1.3 bWAR): With Travis d’Arnaud on the injured list for much of the season, Atlanta turned to a grab bag of catchers to tread water before d’Arnaud returned in August and solidified the position through the Braves’ run to the World Series.  Since d’Arnaud is always an injury risk, the Braves signed Manny Pina to a two-year deal, adding a veteran complement rather than rely on a larger role for youngsters William Contreras or Shea Langeliers.

Brewers (First base -0.5 bWAR): Though Milwaukee didn’t get much from first base as a whole all year, Rowdy Tellez did hit pretty well after being acquired in a midseason trade from the Blue Jays.  On paper, Tellez will be the Brew Crew’s first choice at the position, with the newly-acquired Mike Brosseau and former top prospect Keston Hiura acting as right-handed hitting complements.  There’s some flexibility here for the Brewers to adjust if, say, Hiura can escape his two-year-long slump, or if the team decides to make another in-season trade for a bigger bat.

Cardinals (Relief pitching, 1.0 bWAR): It is a testament to the Cards’ general depth that their “worst” position was a comparatively solid 1.0 bWAR, as while their hitting was generally middle-of-the-pack, even their weakest bats still contributed with excellent defense.  That leaves the bullpen as the relative weak link, and St. Louis has thus far re-signed veteran lefty T.J. McFarland and brought in Kyle Ryan on a minor league deal, while another veteran in Luis Garcia left to join the Padres.  It’s probably more likely that the Cardinals still stick to somewhat lower-level transactions to augment their pen, as the team has some young starters on the farm that could be deployed in relief roles, if they aren’t needed for the rotation.  Giovanny Gallegos pitched well in the closer’s role, though St. Louis get some added depth via a veteran with ninth-inning experience.

Cubs (Starting pitching, -1.2 bWAR): After unloading most of their veterans at the trade deadline, the Cubs indicated they weren’t willing to head into rebuild mode just yet, as they signed Marcus Stroman to a three-year, $71MM deal and claimed Wade Miley off waivers from the salary-dumping Reds.  Neither represents a major long-term commit (Stroman can opt out after the 2023 season and Miley is under contract only through 2022), yet Wrigleyville’s rotation already looks much better on paper.  Kyle Hendricks has another spot claimed, and the Cubs could use any of Adbert Alzolay, Alec Mills, Justin Steele, or top prospect Brailyn Marquez for the final two spots.  Alternatively, Chicago could acquire a fairly inexpensive veteran arm to either be penciled into the fourth rotation spot, or to provide further competition for those younger pitchers.

Diamondbacks (Relief pitching, -3-3 bWAR): There weren’t many areas of strength for the 110-loss D’Backs, yet the bullpen was easily the team’s biggest issue.  Even though the Diamondbacks face an uphill battle in contending next year, the relief corps was dire enough that Arizona felt the need for a notable bullpen signing, adding Mark Melancon for two years and $14MM.  Melancon might end up being the Diamondbacks’ biggest investment in the pen, as the club has also added Keynan Middleton, Edwin Uceta, Zack Burdi, and Kyle Nelson on minor league deals and waiver claims, and could pursue a similar low-cost path with other relief additions.

Dodgers (Center field, 0.8 bWAR): Cody Bellinger’s brutal 2021 season makes him a big question mark heading into 2022.  The Dodgers aren’t ready to give up on the former NL MVP, yet it’s probably safe to assume their decision to re-sign super-utilityman Chris Taylor was at least partially inspired by the need to have a backup plan in place should Bellinger again struggle at the plate.  Since L.A. probably doesn’t want to use Mookie Betts or AJ Pollock in center more than they have to, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Dodgers target another center field-capable utility type or maybe just a pure outfielder in their post-lockout moves.

Giants (Second base, 1.6 bWAR): This is the best bWAR of any team’s “worst” position, which isn’t surprising given how the Giants expertly juggled their roster en route to 107 victories.  Tommy La Stella spending a big chunk of the year on the IL contributed to the relative lack of second base production, and a healthy La Stella in a platoon with Thairo Estrada and Wilmer Flores be the in-house answer to improving the keystone.  As always, however, the Giants figure to explore their options for multi-positional names both small and large, and San Francisco has the payroll space to make a bigger infield addition if they chose that path.

Marlins (Catcher, -1.5 bWAR): With the combination of Jorge Alfaro, Sandy Leon, Alex Jackson, and Chad Wallach providing little help behind the plate, the Marlins went for the big swing and acquired Jacob Stallings from the Pirates.  Miami had to give up a package of three prospects to seal the deal, but giving up two controllable minor league arms was an acceptable price for a team with the Marlins’ pitching depth.  The plan now is for Stallings’ strong defense and game-calling abilities to help aid Miami’s arms at the big league level.

Mets (Catcher, 0 bWAR): After signing James McCann to a four-year, $40.6MM deal last winter, the Mets expected a lot more than a .232/.294/.349 slash line over 412 plate appearances.  With backup Tomas Nido not hitting much, New York will just have to hope that McCann needed some time to adjust to a new league, and that the backstop can return to his old All-Star form.

Nationals (Relief pitching, -4.6 bWAR): No team in any positional category had a lower number than the Washington bullpen’s -4.6 bWAR, and the Nats only subtracted from their relief corps in moving Daniel Hudson and Brad Hand as part of their deadline selloff.  The Nationals have added some lower-level arms as depth, and this could wind up as their tactic later in the winter, as it isn’t yet clear if D.C. will use 2022 as a reset year or if they’ll make a larger push to contend.

Padres (Catcher, 0.4 bWAR): With the Marlins ready to move on from Alfaro, A.J. Preller picked up yet another player with former Rangers ties when San Diego acquired Alfaro from Miami just prior to the lockout.  The Padres’ problems at catcher were largely due to an injury-riddled year from prospective starter Austin Nola, so assuming Nola is healthy and productive, the Padres might have something of a surplus at the position (between backup Victor Caratini and top prospect Luis Campusano) if Alfaro can get on track whatsoever.  Campusano’s name was floated in some trade talks with the Cubs and Nationals back at the deadline, and he has been speculatively mentioned as a trade chip again this winter.

Phillies (Third base, -0.9 bWAR): Between the hot corner, the shortstop position (-0.5 bWAR), center field and left field (1.3 bWAR each), the Phillies have a lot of holes to fill prior to Opening Day.  In theory, third base could be the easiest to address if the club decides to just stay the course with Alec Bohm, who followed up a great rookie season with a mediocre 2021 campaign.  Bohm would hardly be the first player to rebound from a sophomore slump, but since shortstop is also a need, the Phillies might look to acquire a multi-positional infield type who could conceivably step in at either short or third base.

Pirates (Right field, -1.5 bWAR): Since the Bucs are still rebuilding, it isn’t clear if they’ll add any significant veteran upgrades at right field or any other position for 2022.  If not, waiver pickup Greg Allen has joined Ben Gamel, Anthony Alford, and 2018 first-rounder Travis Swaggerty in the mix for playing time in the corner outfield positions.

Reds (Third base, -1.4 bWAR): The experiment of Eugenio Suarez as the Reds’ starting shortstop came to a quick end, yet Suarez struggled at the plate basically all season long, and Mike Moustakas (who began the year at third base) also struggled at the plate and battled injuries.  There are some real warning signs about Suarez’s lack of offensive production over the last two years, and with Cincinnati perhaps looking more towards payroll cuts than roster upgrades this winter, there’s no easy fix other than hoping Suarez and/or Moustakas can get back on track.

Rockies (Center field, 0.9 bWAR): The outfield is a need in general for Colorado, and finding a center fielder represents a particular challenge since spacious Coors Field almost demands a good defender up the middle.  None of their 2021 center field options in Garrett Hampson, Yonathan Daza, or Sam Hilliard exactly fit the bill, as Hampson may be the best fielder of the bunch but might end up in the infield rather than on the grass.  The Rockies reportedly had interest in Kris Bryant before the lockout, and a major signing like that would certainly fill the need for a big bat in the lineup, even if Bryant could or would be deployed at several positions rather than be used at a full-time center fielder.

MLBTR Poll: Who Will Sign Kenley Jansen?

By | at

Kenley Jansen has been one of baseball’s best closers for a decade now. He recorded 25 saves in 2012 and hasn’t been below that number since, which the exception of his 11 saves in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He’s thrown at least 50 innings in the last ten full seasons and threw 24 1/3 in 2020. He’s never had an ERA higher than 3.71. His 350 saves rank him 13th on the all-time list.

There are some reasons to be bearish, however. For one, he just turned 34 years old, meaning it will become more challenging for him to maintain his previous levels of success in the future. He also just posted a walk rate of 12.9% in 2021, his worst such mark since his debut in 2010. But on the bullish side of things, he diversified his arsenal last year, reducing his cutter usage from previous levels of around 90% to just 58% in 2021. Despite the increased walk rate, he was largely effective, putting up an ERA of 2.22 and strikeout rate of 30.9%.

In MLBTR’s annual list of the Top 50 Free Agents, Jansen was one of seven relievers to make the grade, coming in at #29 overall with a predicted contract of $26MM over two years. Five of those seven were able to secure deals before the lockout, as Raisel Iglesias, Kendall Graveman, Corey Knebel, Hector Neris and Mark Melancon are all off the board. That means Jansen and Ryan Tepera are the two best options remaining for teams that wish to upgrade their bullpens without having to give up anything in a trade. Jansen was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer by virtue of having previously received one in his career, meaning it will only take cash to land him.

Jansen would certainly upgrade any bullpen in the league and should garner plenty of interest given it likely won’t require a lengthy commitment to sign him. Even a team that doesn’t jump out as a slam-dunk contender can make a surprising splash on a reliever, such as when the Diamondbacks snapped up Melancon on a two-year deal, despite winning just 52 games last year. Still, the most logical suitor for Jansen would be a team in win-now mode with enough money to spend that they can afford paying him around $13MM per year. Let’s consider some speculative fits.

The last time Jansen was a free agent, he re-signed with the Dodgers, the only organization he’s ever known. Perhaps the most sensible prediction is that he just sticks with the team he’s played his entire career with. However, the Dodgers already have a strong bullpen and more urgent needs elsewhere on the roster, particularly the starting rotation. It can’t be ruled out that they let Kenley walk and dedicate their resources elsewhere.

The Cardinals have some uncertainty in their bullpen, as Alex Reyes led the team in saves last year but may be converted to the starting rotation in 2022. They already have a strong rotation and lineup, and seem content to not pursue shortstop upgrades. Perhaps upgrading the bullpen is the best avenue for improving the team as a whole.

The Red Sox seemed like they had their closer situation resolved when they extended Matt Barnes in July. At the time, Barnes was enjoying an excellent season, sitting on an ERA of 2.68. However, things went badly for him down the stretch and he ended up with an ERA of 3.79 by season’s end, even being left off Boston’s playoff roster at times. Adding Jansen could potentially stabilize a bullpen that’s fairly short on experience, though the club is also going to be looking to replace Hunter Renfroe’s offensive production once the lockout is over.

The Astros are loaded in the rotation and their lineup. They could use a shortstop, either by bringing back Carlos Correa or some other option. However, they seem comfortable letting Jeremy Pena step forward as Correa’s heir apparent. The bullpen is already in good shape, but would certainly benefit from adding someone of Jansen’s caliber.

The Blue Jays had some bullpen issues in 2021, as their reliever corps finished 16th in ERA, 20th in FIP, 12th in xFIP, 12th in SIERA and 25th in fWAR. The club is reportedly planning to spend after the lockout, but they still could use upgrades elsewhere, particularly the infield.

The Giants have lots of payroll space and apparently want to spread it around, as opposed to making one big splash. This approach to team roster construction mirrors that of the Dodgers, the previous team of both Jansen and Giants’ president Farhan Zaidi. Perhaps they could spread their money around on another starter, an outfield bat and a reliever like Jansen. Jake McGee was the team leader in saves in 2021 with 31. Although he’ll be back with the Giants this year, he’s even older than Jansen, as he’ll turn 36 in August.

The Tigers have already been busy this offseason, upgrading their lineup with Javier Baez and Tucker Barnhart, and adding Eduardo Rodriguez to the rotation. If there’s still more cash in their wallet, going after Jansen would be an intriguing next step as their pitching staff is largely composed of younger players. Gregory Soto led the team in saves in 2021, though he has concerning walk rates.

The Rangers have spent even more than the Tigers, adding Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Kole Calhoun and Jon Gray. If they still have more left to spend, the bullpen could definitely use an upgrade. In 2021, the club’s relievers finished 17th in ERA, 16th in FIP, 21st in xFIP, 21st in SIERA and 19th in fWAR.

The Mariners have been similarly aggressive recently, adding Robbie Ray and Adam Frazier thus far. But with some really good relievers already on hand, if they do have another big move left, it might be going after a big bat such as Kris Bryant.

The Marlins went into the offseason needing offense, but they’ve already added Avisail Garcia, Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings to their group of position players. Although they haven’t been big spenders in recent years, Jansen shouldn’t be prohibitively expensive. However, their deal for Garcia and the extension of Sandy Alcantara already went beyond anything else they’ve done recently.

The Mets have already gone absolutely wild this offseason, spending big bucks to upgrade their lineup and rotation. Although they already have a fine closer in Edwin Diaz, if they still have money left to spend, the bullpen is one area they haven’t targeted yet.

The Rockies could certainly use the help in their bullpen, but they have work to do on their lineup and rotation as well. It also has to be said that convincing pitchers to spend their time in the Colorado’s hitter-friendly atmosphere is always a challenge.

You never want to sleep on the Yankees, but they already have a great bullpen and have greater uncertainty elsewhere, particularly the infield.

The Guardians are currently set to run a very low payroll, even for them. However, their bullpen is already in pretty decent shape, and if they make a splash anywhere, it’s most likely going to be the outfield.

The Twins signalled their desire to bounceback from a nightmare season by spending big on an extension for Byron Buxton, but their starting rotation is a more obvious area of improvement.

The Angels probably already made their big bullpen move when they re-signed Iglesias, ditto with the Phillies and Knebel and Diamondbacks and Melancon.

The Brewers are already projected to have a payroll just $2MM shy of their franchise record and already have an excellent pitching staff all around.

The Cubs are in the beginnings of a rebuild, though they’ve already surprised some people by adding Wade Miley, Yan Gomes and Marcus Stroman. Is there another surprising move up their sleeve?

Teams like the White Sox, Rays, Padres and Braves are already set to run franchise-high payrolls, which could make it challenging for them to win the bidding for Jansen’s services.

The Orioles and Pirates are deep in rebuilds and unlikely to beat the market on a top reliever like Jansen. The Royals are a bit closer to emerging from rebuilding status but still seem to be a long shot. The Athletics and Reds are reportedly more likely to subtract payroll after the lockout than add. The Nationals are retooling and haven’t yet shown any inclination towards spending big this offseason. However, as we saw with the Diamondbacks signing Melancon, surprises do happen. Perhaps a non-contender could sign him with the goal of trading him later.

A case could be made for any team in the league to add a talent like Jansen, but where do you think he will wind up? Have your say in our poll below.

Who Will Sign Kenley Jansen?
Dodgers 27.88% (2,571 votes)
Blue Jays 10.99% (1,014 votes)
Red Sox 6.90% (636 votes)
Mets 5.85% (540 votes)
Cardinals 5.53% (510 votes)
Phillies 5.12% (472 votes)
Tigers 3.71% (342 votes)
Giants 3.14% (290 votes)
Angels 3.04% (280 votes)
Yankees 2.95% (272 votes)
Rangers 2.71% (250 votes)
Cubs 2.70% (249 votes)
Marlins 2.41% (222 votes)
Padres 2.29% (211 votes)
Mariners 1.93% (178 votes)
Braves 1.81% (167 votes)
Astros 1.42% (131 votes)
Nationals 1.17% (108 votes)
Twins 1.05% (97 votes)
Orioles 1.03% (95 votes)
White Sox 0.88% (81 votes)
Reds 0.86% (79 votes)
Brewers 0.76% (70 votes)
Guardians 0.68% (63 votes)
Athletics 0.68% (63 votes)
Pirates 0.67% (62 votes)
Royals 0.63% (58 votes)
Rays 0.48% (44 votes)
Diamondbacks 0.47% (43 votes)
Rockies 0.27% (25 votes)
Total Votes: 9,223

(poll link for app users)

Trade Candidate: J.D. Davis

By | at

After being drafted by the Astros in 2014, J.D. Davis utterly mashed in the minors but couldn’t contribute much in his first couple of MLB seasons for Houston. From 2014 to 2018, Davis produced a wRC+ of at least 134 at each stop from Low-A up to Triple-A. Those tantalizing offensive skills were enough to get him a taste of MLB action in 2017 and 2018, playing 67 total games over those two seasons, but hitting just .194/.260/.321.

Prior to the 2019 season, the Mets took a chance on Davis, acquiring him from the Astros in the hope that his bat would eventually click in the Majors. The gamble paid off immediately, as Davis had an excellent year at the plate in 2019, hitting 22 home runs and slashing .307/.369/.527, producing a wRC+ of 137 and 2.4 fWAR over 140 games. He slipped a bit in the shortened 2020 campaign, tallying just six homers but still hitting above league average with a line of .247/.371/.389, wRC+ of 118. In 2021, he made multiple trips to the IL due to issues with his left hand, but still hit well when he was healthy, as he produced a line of .285/.384/.436 for a wRC+ of 130 in 73 games.

As the season was winding down and the Mets were clearly not going to be a factor in the postseason, Davis underwent surgery to address the hand issue, with the expectation that he would be ready to go for spring training. At the time, Davis was quoted as saying that he felt he only had a 50/50 chance of returning to the Mets in 2022. “I know there’s going to be plenty of changes up and down from the front office all the way down to here,” Davis said. “My gut feeling? I could be out of here. That’s what it’s kind of leaning towards. But there’s a possibility that I could come back. I love New York. I love the fans. I love the city. It’s a flip of the coin.”

Davis likely suspected his name to come up in trade talks due to the crowded infield situation in Queens. Robinson Cano sat out 2021 due to his PED suspension but will be returning for 2022. If Cano were to get significant playing time at second base, that could have meant Jeff McNeil or Luis Guillorme getting some time at third base with Davis. But then to complicate things further, the Mets went on a wild spending spree before the lockout, which included adding Eduardo Escobar into the second/third base jumble. If the National League were to implement the designated hitter for 2022, that could theoretically open up at-bats for someone in this group. However, the Mets also added Mark Canha and Starling Marte to their outfield, alongside Brandon Nimmo, which bumps Dominic Smith into the DH conversation, as Pete Alonso should have most of the playing time at first base. All of that would seemingly only increase the odds of Davis, or someone else, being squeezed out.

Davis has played a little bit of first base and left field in his big league career but is primarily a third baseman. Most metrics consider him a poor defender, even at his primary position, with all of DRS, UZR and OAA making heavy use of the minus sign in assessing his glovework. The addition of the DH to the NL, if it comes to fruition, should theoretically help the Mets find a taker for Davis, as it would increase the ability of some team to utilize his bat without exposing themselves to his weakness in the field.

Despite his flaws, Davis has produced 4.5 fWAR over 269 games in the last three seasons, which should give him plenty of appeal around the league. He turns 29 in April and has between three and four years’ service time, meaning he is under club control through the 2024 season, unless the new CBA makes significant changes to the previous service time structure. He’s already gone through arbitration once, as he reached Super Two status prior to last year, and earned $2.1MM in 2021. Due to his injury-hampered season, he is projected to earn a modest raise to $2.7MM for 2022, in the estimation of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. With his ability to hit, that affordable salary and years of control, he could potentially be a useful piece for any team in the league, including the Mets.

Who’s Blocking Brennen Davis?

By | at

In the second round of the 2018 MLB draft, the Cubs selected outfielder Brennen Davis out of Basha High School in Arizona. Prior to the draft, his athleticism had been quite apparent, as he was also a highly touted basketball player, though he did drop basketball in his senior year to focus on baseball.

After the draft in 2018, he played 18 rookie ball games, slashing .298/.431/.333. In 2019, he got bumped up to A-ball, playing 50 games there and hitting .305/.381/.525, wRC+ of 160. His eight home runs were perhaps the most encouraging development, as it had been hoped that his power would catch up to athleticism in order for him to reach his ceiling. After the pandemic wiped out the minors in 2020, Davis spent the majority of 2021 in Double-A. In 76 games there, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .252/.367/.474, wRC+ of 135. He got promoted to Triple-A in September and hit even better, though over a small sample of just 15 games. His line at that level was .268/.397/.536. In Baseball America’s most recent list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, they put Davis in the 16th spot.

As Davis was having this excellent season in the minors, the Cubs were undergoing a big selloff at the big league level, trading away most of the core players from their recent championship run, including Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and others. The Cubs still have a stable of outfield options on the roster, such as Rafael Ortega, Ian Happ, Clint Frazier, Jason Heyward, Michael Hermosillo, Harold Ramirez, Alfonso Rivas, Greg Deichmann, Nelson Velazquez, Christopher Morel and Alexander Canario.

Despite all of those names, very few of them have done enough to guarantee themselves significant playing time this year. Happ is certain to be in there somewhere. Heyward will likely continue to get playing time with the Cubs hoping he plays well enough that they can move his contract somehow. Frazier and Ramirez are reclamation projects, having each been designated for assignment by their previous teams at the end of 2021. They will probably get some initial playing time as the Cubs see if they found some hidden gems, but they will have to show improvement in order to earn more than an audition. The rest of the group has little or no MLB experience. There’s also the distinct possibility that the Cubs continue their high-turnover roster churn of recent years and trade from this group.

Davis has played all three outfield positions in the minors, but more in center than the corners. The incumbent center fielder for the Cubs is Rafael Ortega, as he got most of the playing time there in the second half of 2021. It was something of a late career breakout season for Ortega, who has been bouncing from team to team for over a decade. Since his debut in affiliated ball in 2008, he’s played in the organizations of the Rockies, Cardinals, Angels, Padres, Marlins and Braves, before joining the Cubs. Going into 2021, he had played 143 MLB games across four different seasons, but he ended up playing 103 games for the Cubs last year, hitting .291/.360/.463 for a wRC+ of 120. His defense was considered slightly below average by Statcast, DRS and UZR, but because of his offensive contributions, he produced 1.6 fWAR in those 103 games. Still, due to his years as a journeyman, he’s not a long-term solution in center as he turns 31 in May.

Davis faces other obstacles to reaching the big leagues, however. For one thing, he’s not on the 40-man roster yet, as he won’t be Rule 5 eligible until the end of the year. That means that calling him up will involve someone else losing their spot. Then there’s also the service time question, which hovers over any highly-touted prospect who is near MLB-ready at the start of a season. In the ongoing CBA negotiations, the owners did make an attempt to address this, as their most recent proposal involved teams that promote top prospects on Opening Day being rewarded with an extra draft pick should that player eventually finish top five in the voting for MVP, Cy Young or Rookie of the Year. (More details here.) However, it’s unknown if that proposal, or a modified one, will survive until the new CBA is eventually agreed upon. Even if that provision exists, it’s not a guarantee that a team will value a theoretical draft pick more than guaranteeing themselves an extra year of control over a highly-touted prospect.

Regardless of how the timeline plays out, the 22-year-old Davis should be with the Cubs at some point this year, with the potential to be a key building block as they look to navigate a quick turnaround from their big selloff and open up a new competitive window.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top