MLBTR Originals

We’ve taken a position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR in recent weeks. With the position players now all covered, we turn our attention to the starting pitching market.

Each winter, free agency offers a wide variety of starting pitching tiers. There are usually top-of-the-rotation stars, innings-eating types for the middle and back end, and reclamation projects who have shown well in the past but disappointed in their platform seasons. This offseason will be no exception.

Here are the rotation options slated to hit the open market in the coming weeks:

A Tier Unto Himself

• Max Scherzer (37 years old in 2022): The most dominant pitcher of the current generation, Scherzer could potentially win a fourth Cy Young Award after tossing 179 1/3 innings of 2.46 ERA ball with a huge 34.1% strikeout rate against just a 5.2% walk rate — the third-lowest mark of his storied career. Scherzer is as dominant as he’s ever been, and the only thing that will cap his market this offseason is his age. Justin Verlander signed a two-year, $66MM extension with the Astros for these same age-37 and age-38 seasons, and Scherzer can justifiably look to eclipse that mark in both years and average annual value. He, somewhat incredibly, has a shot at a second nine-figure deal in free agency this winter. He’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer (both due to being traded midseason and having previously rejected one in his career).

Other Top of the Market Options

• Robbie Ray (30): Back on Aug. 13, I took a look at how the Jays had struck gold on their decision to jump the market and re-sign Ray right out of the gate in free agency. In the 10 starts he made after the time I published that piece, Ray pitched 63 innings of 2.71 ERA ball with a 36% strikeout rate, solidifying himself as the AL Cy Young favorite. Ray’s success is largely driven by heretofore unseen levels of command; after walking 12.9 percent of his opponents from 2017-20, Ray walked just 6.9 percent of the batters he faced in 2021. His 32.1% strikeout rate is the second-best of his career. His AL-best 193 1/3 innings were a career-high. Some clubs will be skeptical about his ability to maintain that vastly improved command, but Ray has positioned himself for a nine-figure contract of five or six years in length after he rejects a qualifying offer.
• Kevin Gausman (31): Gausman’s decision to accept a qualifying offer last year looks quite shrewd. The right-hander might’ve been able to command a two- or three-year deal on the heels of his 2020 breakout, but he bet on himself with that one-year deal and improved across the board. Gausman’s 192 frames and 2.81 ERA were both sixth-best among qualified starters, while his 29.2% strikeout rate and 22.8 K-BB% both ranked eighth. Over his past 251 2/3 innings, Gausman carries a flat 3.00 ERA and 30.0% strikeout rate against a terrific 6.5% walk rate. The former No. 4 overall draft pick now looks like the ace Orioles fans might’ve hoped for when he debuted in 2013. He’s ineligible to receive another qualifying offer and will vie with Ray for the largest overall contract of any starter this offseason.
• Marcus Stroman (30): Stroman doesn’t miss bats at the level of the other top arms on this list, but he’s one of the game’s premier ground-ball pitchers and has better command than most of the names on this list. He’s made 32 or 33 starts in four of the past six seasons, with the exceptions coming in 2020 (when he tore a calf muscle and opted out of the remainder of the season) and in 2018, when he was limited to 19 starts by shoulder fatigue. That’s the only arm injury Stroman has ever had, and the 3.48 ERA he’s compiled over his past four seasons ranks 23rd among 138 qualified starters since 2017. This year’s 3.02 ERA ranked ninth among qualified pitchers. Fielding-independent metrics have never been quite as bullish on Stroman because of his below-average strikeout rate, but his age, durability, premium command and huge ground-ball rates make him one of the market’s top starters. He can’t receive a second qualifying offer and could command a five-year deal himself this winter.
• Carlos Rodon (29): On July 18, Rodon held the Astros to one hit with no walks and 10 strikeouts in seven shutout innings. He hasn’t topped five innings in a start since. Were it not for an ominous bout of shoulder fatigue that sent Rodon to the IL in August and ostensibly capped him at four to five innings per outing late in the year, he’d be right alongside Ray in AL Cy Young contention. The former No. 3 overall pick broke out with a 2.37 ERA and a 34.6% strikeout rate that trailed only Corbin Burnes (min. 100 innings pitched). Rodon was questionable for the ALDS but eventually pitched 2 2/3 innings in the ChiSox’ final effort against Houston. He was hitting the upper-90s with his heater, but that brief look may not be enough to allay concerns about his shoulder. Rodon could reject a qualifying offer and look to max out on a shorter multi-year deal. Alternatively, he could go the Gausman/Stroman route — accept a QO and hope a big 2022 showing positions him for a nine-figure deal next winter.

Former Cy Young Winners in their Mid/Late 30s

• Zack Greinke (38): Greinke still provides innings, but his average fastball was down to 89.0 mph in 2021 and he posted a second consecutive ERA north of 4.00. Greinke’s season-long numbers were torpedoed by a poor stretch of four starts to close out the year. His ERA sat at 3.41 as recently as Aug. 23 — albeit with a sub-par 17.5 percent strikeout rate. Still, Greinke is durable and possesses outstanding command. Teams will see him as a workhorse who can provide average or better innings while passing down plenty of knowledge to younger arms. He’s already turned down one qualifying offer, so he can’t receive a second.
• Justin Verlander (39): It was surprising to hear Astros owner Jim Crane say Verlander would be seeking “a contract of some length” recently. The two-time Cy Young winner has thrown just six innings since the conclusion of the 2019 postseason due to 2020 Tommy John surgery. Houston will make a qualifying offer, and if Verlander is indeed intent on multiple years, he’ll reject. Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his mid-40s, and his resume speaks for itself. A multi-year deal is risky, but how many arms come with this type of ceiling?
• Corey Kluber (36): Kluber’s comeback looked to be in full swing when he no-hit the Rangers in May. However, he pitched three innings in his next start, went on the injured list for three months, and returned with a 5.40 ERA in his final 26 2/3 frames. Kluber still finished with a solid 3.83 ERA in 80 innings, but his 24 percent strikeout rate was roughly average and his 9.7 percent walk rate was high. That no-no and a dominant outing against the Tigers early in the year stand out, but his season lacked consistency.
• Clayton Kershaw (34): He wasn’t quite peak Kershaw, but the second three-time Cy Young winner on this list rattled off 121 2/3 innings of 3.55 ERA ball with even more promising strikeout (29.5) and walk (4.3) percentages when healthy. Kershaw hit the IL with forearm inflammation in early July and missed two months before returning for four shaky starts down the stretch (15 1/3 innings, 4.70 ERA). He’s out for the postseason due to renewed forearm discomfort but won’t require surgery, instead receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection. There’s huge uncertainty here. If the Dodgers feel he’s healthy enough to make a qualifying offer, perhaps the simplest course would just be for Kershaw to accept.

Mid-Rotation Arms in their Prime

• Anthony DeSclafani (32): DeSclafani was clobbered by the Dodgers this season and posted a 2.21 ERA against all other teams (hat tip to The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee). The end result was a 3.17 ERA in 167 2/3 innings, a slightly below-average strikeout percentage (22.5) and a very strong walk rate (6.2 percent). DeSclafani has some injuries on his track record, most notably an elbow strain that cost him the 2017 season but didn’t require surgery. He’s made 31 starts of sub-4.00 ERA ball in two of the past three seasons and could find interest on a three- or perhaps even four-year deal — depending on whether the Giants make a qualifying offer.
• Jon Gray (30): Gray went down with a forearm issue late in the season and was rocked upon returning, but it was a solid year for the former No. 3 overall draft pick when healthy. Gray throws hard, misses bats, keeps the ball on the ground and has solid command. He owns a 4.52 ERA and 4.01 FIP over four prior seasons, and he’s the type of prime-aged, power arm another team could dream on. Colorado opted not to trade him at the deadline, so a qualifying offer seems likely, as they’d otherwise stand to lose him without compensation.
• Steven Matz (31): Matz has had an up-and-down career, sometimes looking like a non-tender candidate but sometimes looking like a mid-rotation building block. The latter was the case in 2021, Matz’s lone season with the Blue Jays. He posted a 3.82 ERA in 150 2/3 frames with solid strikeout and walk rates. He’s been on the IL every year since 2015, albeit mostly for minor injuries that required only brief absences. He’s done enough for a team to give him a multi-year deal to pitch out of the middle of a rotation.
• Eduardo Rodriguez (29): One of the youngest pitchers on the market this year, Rodriguez will be overlooked by some simply due to a pedestrian 4.74 ERA. However, E-Rod had the best strikeout and walk percentages of his career and largely allayed concerns about his health and durability after missing the 2020 season due to a troubling bout of myocarditis. Rodriguez has a 4.13 ERA with sub-4.00 marks in FIP, xFIP, SIERA and xERA over his past four seasons. Even if he rejects a qualifying offer, he’ll be a popular multi-year deal candidate.
• Alex Wood (30): Wood barely pitched from 2019-20 and has a history of shoulder troubles, but he made 26 starts with strong cumulative numbers in 2021 (3.83 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, 50.8% grounder rate). With an ERA of 3.84 or better in every season of his career outside of those injury-ruined 2019-20 seasons, quality strikeout rates and plus ground-ball rates, Wood will be popular on the market. Like his teammate, DeSclafani, he’s a borderline QO candidate.

Older Veterans/Back-of-the-Rotation Options

• Brett Anderson (34): A ground-ball specialist who doesn’t miss many bats, Anderson has a 4.12 ERA and strong command over his past four seasons. He’s spent a fair bit of time on the IL, however, resulting in just 399 1/3 frames dating back to 2018.
• Tyler Anderson (32): Anderson has rebuilt his stock nicely over the past two seasons, but his rookie year 3.54 ERA back in 2016 was a long time ago. He’s generally a solid five-inning starter with an ERA in the mid-4.00s. A two-year deal isn’t out of the question based on his age and the consistency with which he’s taken the ball over the past two seasons.
• Alex Cobb (34): The 2021 version of Cobb might be the best we’ve seen since 2013-14, but injuries limited him to 93 1/3 frames. Cobb has never made 30 starts in a season, so the injury risk is palpable, but he’s coming off a solid 2021 campaign.
• J.A. Happ (39): Happ looked like a DFA candidate with the Twins but posted a 4.00 ERA in 54 innings following a trade to the Cardinals. His strikeout and walk rates didn’t really change in St. Louis, but his BABIP dropped by 60 points. Playing in front of MLB’s top defense (per DRS and OAA) certainly didn’t hurt.
• Rich Hill (42): Raise your hand if you expected 41-year-old Hill to post the second-highest innings total of his career in 2021. The lefty’s strikeout and walk rates both improved over their 2020 levels, and he posted near-identical ERAs between the Rays and Mets. He’s made clear he’s not retiring, so look for another one-year deal to slot into the middle of a rotation.
• Kwang Hyun Kim (33): He’s been mostly a five-inning starter and has been helped out immensely by a lights-out Cardinal defense (.257 BABIP, 17.2% strikeout rate), but Kim owns a 2.97 ERA in 145 2/3 MLB frames. His 4.89 SIERA tells another story, but as a fifth back-of-the-rotation option or long man, teams could do much worse.
• Wade LeBlanc (37): The journeyman lefty helped keep the Cardinals afloat when their rotation need was at its most dire point (3.61 ERA in 42 1/3 innings), but an elbow injury ultimately ended his season and required surgery.
• Jon Lester (38): Lester couldn’t keep his ERA under 5.00 in Washington, but like Happ, his results improved playing in front of the St. Louis defensive juggernaut. Lester is a five-inning starter at this point and had one of the lowest K-BB% marks of any pitcher in 2021 (min. 100 IP). If he wants to keep pitching, though, someone will pencil the veteran in for some innings.
• Jordan Lyles (31): The two-year, $16MM deal he inked with Texas didn’t pan out as the Rangers hoped. This year’s 5.15 ERA was unsightly, but Lyles tied for 18th in the league with 180 innings pitched. He can eat some innings at the back of someone’s rotation in 2022.
• Wily Peralta (33): Peralta didn’t pitch in 2020 but returned to the big leagues with 93 2/3 innings of 3.07 ERA ball for Detroit. His poor 14.4% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate don’t inspire a lot of confidence in his ability to repeat that feat, but he’s put himself back on the radar.
• Michael Pineda (33): Injuries hampered Pineda throughout the season and likely prevented the Twins from trading him. There’s mutual interest between he  and the Twins, so he could simply re-sign. If not, he’ll take a 3.62 ERA and a pristine walk rate (4.6%) into the free-agent market — but also a diminished heater (90.9 mph) and a career-worst strikeout rate (19.2%).
• Drew Smyly (33): Smyly got out to a rough start before rebounding with a 3.85 ERA from May 1 through season’s end. There are obvious durability concerns, and he didn’t replicate last year’s strikeout rate, but the southpaw will still garner plenty of interest.
• Michael Wacha (30): Wacha has signed a pair of one-year deals in hopes of rebuilding his stock the past two seasons, but it hasn’t exactly happened. He logged 124 2/3 frames with the Rays and posted a 5.05 ERA in 2021 and now carries a 5.11 ERA over his past three seasons. He’s young enough that there’s a tinge of upside here, but some teams probably just view him as a fifth starter at this point.

Rebound Hopefuls/Depth Options

• Chase Anderson (34): A solid rotation piece from 2014-19, Anderson has limped to an ERA just shy of 7.00 over the past two seasons.
• Chris Archer (33): Injuries have taken their toll on Archer, who had thoracic outlet surgery in 2020 and pitched just 19 1/3 innings in his 2021 return to the Rays.
• Jake Arrieta (36): Released by the Cubs late in the season, Arrieta landed with the Padres and was shelled in four starts. He’s been on the decline for several years.
• Dylan Bundy (29): The 2020 season looked like a breakout, but Bundy followed with a 6.06 ERA and struggled enough to lose his rotation spot in Anaheim. He’s shown flashes of brilliance numerous times in the past, but the former No. 2 overall prospect just continues to struggle with the long ball.
• Trevor Cahill (33): There was some bargain potential when the Bucs signed Cahill in Spring Training, but a series of calf strains held him to 37 innings with an ERA north of 6.00.
• Zach Davies (29): Davies’ big 2020 season with the Padres looks like an outlier after his strikeout and walk rates both trended strongly in the wrong direction. Davies is durable and still young, but he had the fifth-worst K-BB% of any pitcher with at least 100 innings in 2021.
• Danny Duffy (33): The longtime Royals lefty was excellent when healthy (2.51 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate), but a pair of forearm injuries limited him to just 61 innings. Duffy never pitched for the Dodgers after being acquired in late July.
• Mike Fiers (37): After pitching to a 4.03 ERA in 234 innings with the A’s from 2019-20, Fiers managed just 9 1/3 frames in 2021 due to an elbow sprain.
• Mike Foltynewicz (30): Folty regained nearly three miles per hour on his fastball in 2021, averaging 94.2 mph. The results, however, did not improve for the 2018 All-Star, who posted an ugly 5.44 ERA in 139 innings. The Rangers could’ve controlled Foltynewicz through 2022 via arbitration, but they’ve already cut him loose.
• Chi Chi Gonzalez (30): A first-round pick by Texas back in 2013, Gonzalez has spent the past three seasons with the Rockies, where he’s pitched to a 6.10 ERA and a dismal 5.7 K-BB%.
• Matt Harvey (33): Harvey posted a 3.60 ERA through his first six starts and a 4.18 ERA over his final 10 starts. The problem? He allowed 51 runs through 45 innings in the dozen starts between that pair of encouraging bookends. All told, Harvey finished with a 6.27 ERA, a subpar 16.3% strikeout rate and a strong 6.4% walk rate.
• Andrew Heaney (31): Heaney’s strikeout, walk, swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates are all excellent. Unfortunately, he was one of MLB’s most homer-prone arms in 2021 (2.01 HR/9). Heaney will probably get a solid one-year deal because of his age and ability to miss bats. He’ll be a popular buy-low target.
• Michael Lorenzen (30): Lorenzen has been in line for a look in the Reds’ rotation on multiple occasions, but injuries have always intervened. That said, he’s angling for a rotation opportunity next spring and ought to get some consideration given a heater that averaged just shy of 97 (albeit in relief) and given a 3.48 ERA in 331 bullpen innings from 2016-20. Lorenzen is something of a unicorn, given that he also handles the bat well and has plus defensive tools in center field. If you’re purely rolling the dice on rotation options, they don’t come much more interesting than Lorenzen and his across-the-board skill set.
• Matt Moore (33): Moore’s return from Japan ended with a 6.29 ERA in 73 innings of work. He lost his rotation spot early in the year and has yet to recapture his 2011-14 pre-Tommy John form.
• James Paxton (33): Paxton, who missed most of 2020 with forearm and back injuries, pitched just one inning in his return to Seattle. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Paxton is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, but he’s never made 30 starts in a season and has just 21 1/3 innings across the past two years.
• Jose Quintana (33): The veteran Quintana posted an ERA north of 8.00 as a starter but notched a 4.18 ERA with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate in 28 relief innings. He could draw interest in both roles this winter.
• Aaron Sanchez (29): A biceps injury limited Sanchez to 35 1/3 innings, during which time he walked 15 batters and plunked another four. His 90.4 mph average fastball was five miles per hour slower than it was at his peak. Sanchez had a 3.06 ERA, but the numbers beyond that weren’t pretty.
• Noah Syndergaard (30): Syndergaard hoped to be back from 2020 Tommy John surgery by June, but setbacks shelved him until late September. He pitched just two innings. Lost season notwithstanding, the Mets could make a qualifying offer to Syndergaard, who has ace-caliber stuff when healthy.
• Jose Urena (30): Non-tendered by the Marlins last winter, Urena pitched 100 2/3 innings with the Tigers but turned in a third straight season with an ERA over 5.00. A forearm strain cut his season short. He’s a minor league deal candidate this winter.
• Vince Velasquez (30): Velasquez has tantalized the Phillies with impressive raw stuff for years but never been able to harness it as a consistently successful rotation member. Velasquez throw in the mid-90s, misses bats and won’t be 30 until next June. Plenty of teams will want to take aim at trying to “fix” him.

Players with 2022 Club/Player Options

• Johnny Cueto, $22MM club option with $5MM buyout (36): Cueto looked like a fourth starter when he was healthy this year. Teams will view him as a veteran source of innings, but it’s hard to see the Giants picking up a net $17MM option.
• Merrill Kelly, $4.25MM club option with $500K buyout (32): The D-backs have an easy call here after Kelly pitched to a 4.44 ERA in 158 innings. Kelly is an affordable source of innings at the back of the rotation and would command a fair bit of trade interest if Arizona goes that route.
• Yusei Kikuchi, four-year, $66MM club option or $13MM player option (31): Kikuchi reportedly plans to exercise his $13MM player option once the Mariners decline their option to extend him at a set rate. Kikuchi was excellent for the first four months of the season or so, making the All-Star team and at one point looking like that extension option might be palatable for Seattle. He crashed hard over the final two months, however.
• Carlos Martinez, $17MM club option with $500K buyout (30): This one’s a formality for the Cardinals, who’ll decline the option after watching Martinez pitch to a 6.95 ERA in 102 1/3 innings from 2020-21.
• Wade Miley, $10MM club option with $1MM buyout (35): A net $9MM decision seems like an easy call for the Reds after Miley racked up 163 innings of 3.37 ERA ball. Cincinnati cut payroll last offseason, but it’d be a surprise to see them send Miley back to the market with such a reasonable 2022 option at their disposal.
• Garrett Richards, $10MM club option with $1MM buyout (34): Richards was making good on his move to the bullpen before faceplanting in the final couple weeks of the season. With a 4.87 ERA in 136 2/3 innings, that option is likely to be bought out.

Previous installments in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield

With the League Championship Series having kicked off tonight, we’re moving ever closer to the offseason. With free agency approaching, MLBTR has taken a position-by-position look at the options who’ll be available on the open market.

Today, we turn our attention to the corner outfield. Essentially all of the center field-capable players on the market could presumably cover the corners if necessary. (Starling Marte, for instance, has already shown himself to be more than capable of handling left field). Still, we’ve already covered the center fielders in-depth, so we’ll look only at players who have recently spent a significant amount of time in the corner outfield for purposes of this post.

Everyday Options

Kris Bryant (30 next April): Bryant has shown enough athleticism to handle both corner infield positions and cover anywhere on the outfield, although he’s better suited in a corner than in center field. Advanced defensive metrics suggest he struggled to adapt to the spacious right field at Oracle Park after a midseason trade from the Cubs to the Giants, but he’s generally rated as a fine outfielder over the course of his career.

Wherever he were to play, teams will be in on Bryant this winter for his bat. He broke into the majors with five consecutive elite hitting seasons, including a 2016 campaign in which he won the NL MVP award. Bryant struggled in last year’s shortened season, but he bounced most of the way back in 2021. Over 586 plate appearances, the 29-year-old hit .265/.353/.481 with 25 homers, drawing walks and hitting for power at above-average rates. The midseason trade renders him ineligible for a qualifying offer.

Kyle Schwarber (29): Bryant’s former Cub teammate, Schwarber’s time in Chicago ended a year early when he was non-tendered last winter after a down 2020. The former top five pick rebounded with a career-best showing at the plate in 2021, combining for a .266/.374/.554 line between the Nationals and Red Sox. Schwarber popped 32 homers in just 471 plate appearances (he missed more than a month midseason because of a hamstring strain), backed up by batted ball metrics that are among the most impressive in the sport.

Schwarber’s not a strong defender. He’s played almost exclusively in left field over the past few seasons, picking up a bit of time at first base down the stretch in Boston. Defensive metrics have pegged his range as well below-average in left — although he’s offset some of that with a strong arm. And Schwarber does strike out a fair amount, but his combination of power and patience makes him one of the more impactful bats available this winter. Like Bryant, he’s ineligible for a QO by virtue of a midseason trade.

Michael Conforto (29): Conforto entered the season as one of the top players in this winter’s class. With a typical season, he’d have had a very strong case to land a nine figure deal. Instead, Conforto posted his worst numbers since 2016, hitting .232/.344/.384 over 479 trips to the plate. That’s a far cry from his .261/.365/.478 line between 2018-20.

Conforto’s down year comes in spite of a career-low strikeout rate, a typically strong walk percentage, and batted ball metrics not too dissimilar from prior seasons. That disconnect between his seemingly still-strong process but his far less impressive results makes Conforto one of the tougher free agents to pin down this winter. The Mets are reportedly planning to offer him a QO.

Chris Taylor (31): Taylor has moved all over the diamond for the Dodgers, spending the bulk of this season in center field and at second base but also appearing at both corner outfield spots and third base.

Taylor has been a bit unheralded on a Dodgers’ roster loaded with superstars (at least until his heroics in last week’s Wild Card game), but he’s been a consistently above-average hitter with passable defensive marks virtually everywhere he plays. He strikes out a fair amount, but he also hits for power, walks and consistently runs high batting averages on balls in play. His bat cooled off in the second half after a scorching start to the season, but Taylor’s track record and versatility make him a likely qualifying offer recipient and candidate to land a strong three or four-year contract. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently broke down Taylor’s impending free agency at greater length.

Mark Canha (33): Canha has been an underrated, quality performer for the past few seasons. He’s not a particularly flashy player with eye-popping tools, but Canha’s well-rounded game leads to quietly strong results year after year. He draws plenty of walks, strikes out at a league average clip and hits for solid power despite playing in a pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Canha has been at least fifteen percentage points above league average offensively in each of the past four seasons by measure of wRC+. He had a very strong first half, although his batted ball metrics and power results cratered following a late-June hip injury.

Canha’s age — he turns 33 in February — and late-season power outage figure to have an adverse effect on his earning power. But Canha’s a quality offensive player, a good hitter without obvious drawbacks at the plate. He’s not a great fit in center field, but he can cover the middle in a pinch and typically rates as a fine option in the corners. Teams that don’t want to play at the top of the outfield market could view Canha as a strong fallback, particularly since it seems highly unlikely the low-budget A’s would make him a qualifying offer.

Jorge Soler (30): Soler’s overall results the past two seasons are underwhelming. He’s a bat-only player with a .224/.319/.435 line since the start of 2020, and both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as below replacement level this past season. But that two-year sample ignores a 2019 campaign in which Soler mashed a league-best 48 home runs, and he’s looked reinvigorated since a deadline day trade to the Braves.

In 242 plate appearances with Atlanta down the stretch, Soler hit at .269/.358/.524 clip with fourteen homers. He’s slashed his strikeout rate to just 18.6% with the Braves after a dismal start to the year in Kansas City. Soler’s also relatively young, turning 30 in February, and annually has among the league’s top exit velocities and hard contact rates. Teams could see Soler’s second half resurgence as an indicator he’s rediscovered his peak form, but his 2020 and first half struggles raise some questions as well.

Tommy Pham (34): Pham was one of the game’s more underrated players for a few seasons with the Cardinals and Rays. He combined power, elite patience and enough athleticism to play a strong left field into a quality overall profile. Those underlying skills are still in play, as Pham almost never chases pitches outside the strike zone and continues to make hard contact at an above-average clip. That said, Pham’s results in San Diego haven’t matched those of prior seasons. He’s hitting .226/.335/.370 over the past two years, although it’s fair to wonder whether he’s been fully healthy. Pham missed a month last season after fracturing the hamate bone in his left hand, and his offseason and Spring Training routines were disrupted this year after he was stabbed in the lower back last October.

Platoon/Time-Share/Depth Options

Corey Dickerson (33): Dickerson has a long track record of above-average offense, carrying solid numbers between a few different spots. He’s only been around league average at the dish over the past two years, though, likely setting him up for a one-year deal this winter. Dickerson makes a lot of contact and hits for high batting averages, but it comes without a ton of walks and his power numbers have dropped off recently. He had one outlier season with elite defensive marks that earned him a Gold Glove award, but Dickerson typically rates as an average left fielder.

Joc Pederson (29): Pederson was a middle-of-the-order caliber bat during his best days with the Dodgers — at least against right-handed pitching. But he’s posted below-average offensive numbers in each of the last two seasons, and his career numbers against lefties are very poor. Pederson has been solid for the Braves since they picked him up at the trade deadline, and he’s popped a couple key postseason home runs. He brings power from the left side, but Pederson’s lack of production against southpaws probably limits him to a corner platoon role this winter.

Eddie Rosario (30): Rosario has had a Soler-esque turnaround following a midseason trade to the Braves. He hit just .254/.296/.389 over 306 plate appearances with the Indians, but turned things around to post a .271/.330/.573 mark in 106 plate appearances with Atlanta. Rosario’s general track record falls somewhere in the middle, as he typically posts slightly above-average production at the plate. The left-handed hitter doesn’t walk much and he’s not a great defender, but he has a strong combination of bat-to-ball skills and power.

Yoshi Tsutsugo (30): Tsutsugo didn’t live up to expectations with the Rays, who inked him to a two-year, $12MM deal following a starring career in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. However, the left-handed hitter popped eight homers in just 144 plate appearances after latching on with the Pirates late in the season. That strong couple months could make him an intriguing buy-low power bat this offseason. Tsutsugo’s primarily a first baseman, but he also lined up in both corner outfield spots this year and has a bit of experience at third base.

Dexter Fowler (36): Fowler lost almost the entire season after tearing his left ACL in April. He still reached base at a strong clip (.238/.346/.409) during his last extended run of play in 2019, but he’ll be 36 years old by next Opening Day and is coming off a significant knee injury.

Juan Lagares (33): A former Gold Glove winning center fielder with the Mets, Lagares got quite a bit of action with the Angels this season across all three outfield spots. He’s probably looking at minor league offers this winter after hitting just .236/.266/.372.

Gerardo Parra (34): Parra made a late-season return to the Nationals, hitting just .237/.292/.351 in 107 trips to the plate. He’s a respected veteran clubhouse presence, but he hasn’t had an above-average hitting season since 2015.

Abraham Almonte (32): Almonte has gotten brief looks at the big league level in each of the past nine seasons, never serving as a true regular. He drew plenty of walks this year with the Braves but only hit .216 and rated poorly in his limited showing defensively. He was outrighted off the roster last month.

Josh Reddick (35): Reddick earned a big league shot with the D-Backs in May after signing a minor league deal over the winter. He hit a career-worst .258/.285/.371 over 158 plate appearances with Arizona before being released. Reddick signed a minor league deal with the Mets thereafter but didn’t get back to the majors. He’s likely limited to minors offers again this winter.

Matt Joyce (37): Joyce was a productive lefty bench bat as recently as 2020, but he didn’t hit at all in a limited showing with the Phillies this year before being released. At his best, he offers a little bit of pop and draws plenty of walks.

Gregory Polanco (30): Polanco looked to be emerging as a star in 2018, but he’s struggled mightily over the past three seasons. The Pirates released him in late August. He went on an absolute tear (.374/.436/.747 over 101 plate appearances) with the Blue Jays’ Triple-A affiliate after signing a minor league deal but couldn’t crack a loaded Toronto lineup. Polanco will be an interesting offseason flier, presumably on another minors pact.

Mike Tauchman (31): Tauchman still drew plenty of walks this season, but he struck out at a huge 30.4% clip between the Yankees and Giants. His big power numbers from 2019 now look like an outlier.

José Marmolejos (29): Marmolejos had a great season with the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate, but that didn’t carry over to the big leagues. The first baseman/corner outfielder hit just .160/.262/.311 over 122 MLB plate appearances before being outrighted.

Adam Eaton (33): Eaton split this season between the White Sox and Angels but hit only .201/.282/.327 in 288 cumulative plate appearances. He was eventually outrighted off both teams’ rosters.

Nomar Mazara (26): The Tigers’ dart throw that Mazara could yet unlock his offensive potential didn’t pan out. He hit .212/.276/.321 before being released. Mazara’s a household name and one-time top prospect, but he’s simply never hit at the level many anticipated.

Jason Martin (26): Martin was once fairly well-regarded as a prospect but his bat stalled out in the high minors. A strong Triple-A showing this year earned him his most extended MLB look with the Rangers, but he hit just .208/.248/.354 at the highest level and was outrighted off the roster.

Utility Infielders/Outfielders

Josh Harrison (34): Harrison initially looked to be tailing off as he entered his 30’s, but he’s played quite well two years running. Over 558 plate appearances between the Nationals and A’s, he hit .279/.341/.400 with a tiny 13.4% strikeout rate. He earned Oakland’s regular second base job down the stretch and might have earned himself an everyday role somewhere on the diamond this offseason. Harrison doesn’t walk or hit for much power, but he puts the ball in play, can cover multiple positions and would bring a respected veteran presence to a clubhouse.

Brad Miller (32): Miller bounces all around the diamond, spending most of this year on the corners. He’s a bat-first player who hit a solid .227/.321/.453 with 20 homers in 377 plate appearances for the Phillies. He’s a nice left-handed power bat to have off the bench.

Leury García (31): García has had a nice few seasons on the South Side of Chicago. He’s a switch-hitting utilityman who can cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. García doesn’t hit for power or draw many walks, but he makes a fair amount of contact and has been right around league average offensively over the past couple seasons.

Ehire Adrianza (32): Adrianza’s a capable glove-first utilityman. He’s worked in a reserve capacity for essentially his entire career, posting decent strikeout and walk numbers with little power.

Marwin González (33): González hit just .201/.281/.285 before the Red Sox cut him loose. He popped three homers in 36 plate appearances since re-signing with Houston, but he only posted a .222 OBP in his second stint as an Astro. That’s two consecutive miserable seasons for González, who followed up an outstanding 2017 campaign with back-to-back league average seasons before dropping off substantially since the start of 2020.

Jake Lamb (31): Lamb was a productive regular with the D-Backs from 2016-17, but his production has dipped since he underwent shoulder surgery in 2018. He split this past season between the White Sox and Blue Jays, playing all four corner positions while hitting .194/.306/.368.

Players With Options

Nick Castellanos (30): Castellanos seems all but certain to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM on his current deal with the Reds. He’ll have a real case for a nine figure contract on the open market after a huge season in which he hit .309/.362/.576 with 34 home runs in 585 plate appearances.

Castellanos perennially rates among the league’s better hitters in terms of average exit velocity and hard contact rate, and he struck out in a career-low 20.7% of his trips to the dish this year. He’s a subpar defender whose market would be aided by the adoption of a designated hitter in the National League, but there’ll be plenty of demand for a hitter of Castellanos’ caliber.

Avisaíl García (30): García tallied enough plate appearances to vest the right to test free agency this offseason. He’s likely to do so, forgoing his end of a $12MM mutual option with the Brewers. García has long intrigued teams with huge physical tools and flashes of productivity. His performance has been up-and-down over the course of his career, but he’s coming off one of his best years.

García hit .262/.330/.490 with 29 homers over 515 plate appearances with Milwaukee. He typically posts above-average batted ball metrics, and his production this season (unlike that of his personal-best 2017 campaign) wasn’t driven by an unsustainably high batting average on balls in play. García presents a challenging evaluation for teams, since he’s an obviously talented player coming off a very good showing but with an inconsistent career resume.

J.D. Martinez (34): Martinez is primarily a designated hitter, but he still moonlights in the corner outfield on occasion. Regardless of his defensive limitations, it’s tough to downplay his impact on an offense. Martinez was one of the sport’s best hitters over a six-year stretch from 2014-19. He’s no longer quite at that level, but Martinez bounced back from a down 2020 to hit .286/.349/.518 with 28 homers in 634 plate appearances. That sets up an interesting decision, as he’ll have to determine whether to return to Boston on a $19.35MM salary in 2022 or trigger an opt-out clause and test free agency.

Andrew McCutchen (35): The Phillies have a $15MM club option on McCutchen’s services for 2022. There’s a $3MM buyout figure, making that a net $12MM decision. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Phils picked it up, but that seems unlikely. McCutchen’s a respected veteran who’s had an illustrious career, and he still has points in his favor. He popped 27 home runs and walked at a massive 14.1% clip en route to slightly above-average offensive numbers. His batting averages have dipped as he’s gotten more pull-heavy, though, and McCutchen rates as a well below-average defensive left fielder at this stage of his career.

Kole Calhoun (34): The D-Backs hold a $9MM club option on Calhoun’s services for 2022. That comes with a $2MM buyout, meaning it’s a $7MM call. That’ll probably prove too pricy for an Arizona team that’ll want to get looks at some younger players after a disastrous 2021 season. Calhoun popped 16 homers and slugged .526 in last year’s shortened schedule, but he struggled offensively (.235/.297/.373) this year while dealing with a seemingly recurring left hamstring issue.

Brett Gardner (38): Gardner has a player option valued at $2.3MM. If he declines, the Yankees have a team option valued at $7.15MM with a buyout of $1.15MM. It seems unlikely the Yankees would exercise their option after Gardner hit at a slightly below-average level (.222/.327/.362) this season. But Gardner still draws plenty of walks, and he’s one of the better defensive left fielders of his generation and a capable if imperfect fit in center field at this stage of his career.

It’s difficult to imagine the career-long Yankee playing elsewhere, although it remains to be seen if he considers the player option salary enough of an upgrade over the buyout figure he’d collect if the Yankees don’t exercise their end.

Kevin Pillar (33): Pillar’s contract with the Mets contains a $2.9MM player option for 2022. If he declines, the Mets would have to either exercise a $6.4MM club option or buy him out for $1.4MM. The question for Pillar, then, is whether he wants to lock in $2.9MM or take his chances with the buyout and hope to make up the $1.5MM on the open market.

Pillar’s no longer the elite defender he was at his peak, but he’s still capable of playing all three outfield spots. He hit for a decent amount of power this season, popping 15 homers in 347 plate appearances, but he only walked 3.2% of the time and reached base at a paltry .277 clip.

Charlie Blackmon (35): Blackmon has already gone on record to say he’ll exercise his $21MM player option for next season. He returns to Colorado on the heels of a .270/.351/.411 showing.

Jurickson Profar (29): Profar surprisingly landed a three-year, $21MM guarantee from the Padres last winter on the heels of a strong 2020 showing. He didn’t managed to follow-up on that success, though, hitting just .227/.329/.320 through 412 plate appearances. It’s hard to envision Profar opting out after this season, particularly since his contract allows him to opt out at the end of next year too.

Previous installments in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field

As the offseason creeps closer and closer, we’ll continue our position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. We’ve already covered catchers, first basemen, third basemen, second basemen and shortstops. Next up, center field.

Everyday Options

Starling Marte (33 years old next season): There are some other great players on this list who can play center field a bit, but Marte is your best bet if you’re looking for an everyday center fielder who can help you on both sides of the ball. Offensively, he’s been an above-average contributor for nine of the last ten years, with 2017 being his only dip. (He missed 80 games that season after testing positive for Nandrolone, an anabolic steroid.) Over the 1,134 games of his career, he has hit 126 home runs, stolen 296 bases and has a slash line of .289/.345/.451. All that adds up to a wRC+ of 118 and 30.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. And he’s coming off his best offensive season to date, as he slashed .308/.381/.456, with 47 stolen bases, the most in the majors by a significant margin. (Whit Merrifield was second with 40.) His wRC+ on the season of 133 and his 5.4 fWAR were both career highs.

On the defensive side of things, Marte played primarily in left field for the first half of his career, as the Pirates had Andrew McCutchen in center. But since McCutchen’s departure, Marte moved over to center and has hardly moved off it since. Over the past four seasons, he has played exactly one game in left field, logging just three innings. Other than that, he’s been exclusively in center. According to Statcast, he has been worth 17 Outs Above Average in that span, which is the 15th-highest tally among center fielders league-wide. Although Marte just turned 33 and is older than many center fielders in the league, he was still worth 4 OAA, 20th-best among center fielders this season.

Marte is reaching free agency a little bit later than most players due to the extension he signed with the Pirates way back in 2014. As a 33-year-old, that could put a cap on how long teams are willing to commit to him being a regular in center. But the Blue Jays just gave George Springer a six-year contract to cover his age-31 through age-36 seasons. Regardless, Marte is the best option available for any team that needs a center fielder now. He won’t be eligible for a qualifying offer because he was traded midseason.

Kris Bryant (30): Bryant was already written about in the third basemen post linked above. He’s not really a center fielder, only playing 29 games there over his career so far. But his versatility will be a big part of his appeal to clubs in free agency this winter. That said, he’s likely to be considered a third baseman/corner outfielder and only an emergency option in center.

Bryant will command a huge contract because of his offensive track record and strong platform season. His line this season is .268/.356/.496, wRC+ of 123, producing 3.6 fWAR.

Mark Canha (33): If you don’t regularly watch Oakland games, you might not realize how good Mark Canha has been over the past four seasons. From 2018 to 2021, he hit .249/.366/.441. That amounts to a wRC+ of 126, which ranks 39th among all qualified hitters over that time. That’s buoyed by a 12.1% walk rate, 19th among qualified hitters over those years. His 10.4 fWAR over that span is the 18th highest tally among all outfielders.

In 2018 and 2019, he played 62 and 56 games in center, respectively. But in the shortened 2020 season, it was just 9. This year, it was 23. He’s more of a corner outfielder who can cover center in a pinch than a true center fielder. However, Statcast considers him a competent defender, crediting him with 3 OAA this season overall. And given his late-bloom career, he’s reaching free agency for the first time at a somewhat advanced age. That makes it unlikely for a team to consider him a long-term solution up the middle. But for any team that needs a corner outfielder that could slide over when needed, he’s a great option.

Chris Taylor (31): Taylor has already been discussed in the aforementioned MLBTR posts about second basemen and shortstops. While not a true everyday center fielder, he’s one of the most intriguing options on this list by virtue of his versatility. This season, he’s played 61 games in center field, and at least eight games at second base, third base, shortstop, left field and right field. In other words, he’s a proper super utility player.

2021 was his fifth-consecutive season with a wRC+ of 106 or higher. His 2021 line is .254/.344/.438, for a wRC+ 113 and 3.1 fWAR. That bat and that defensive versatility makes him a fit on just about every team in the league, meaning he should garner plenty of interest this offseason and will be one of the more fascinating markets to watch.

Utility/Platoon/Bench Types 

• Delino DeShields (29): DeShields bounced around in the minors for a few organizations this year, eventually seeing a bit of big league action with the Reds. He had a good showing in a small sample size of 25 games, slashing .255/.375/.426. That’s much better than his career slash line of .246/.327/.342.
• Jarrod Dyson (37): Dyson returned to the Royals this year on a one-year deal and hit a paltry .221/.256/.311 before being put on waivers. He was claimed by the Blue Jays, who used him primarily as a late-game defensive replacement and pinch runner. He could potentially fill a similar role for a team in 2022.
• Leury Garcia (31): 2021 was the best full season of Garcia’s career, as he hit .267/.335/.376. His wRC+ of 98 was bested only by his 107 in the shortened 2020 season, where he played only 16 games. His 2.0 fWAR in 2021 almost doubled his previous high of 1.2. The most he’s ever played in center field was 2019, where he got into 80 games there. But this year, it was just 26. He’s more super utility guy than proper center fielder, which is why he was already featured in MLBTR’s posts about second basemen, third basemen and shortstops.
• Billy Hamilton (31): Signed by the White Sox to a minors deal in March, he cracked opening day roster and has managed to hold down his spot all year. With Luis Robert getting most of the playing time in center when healthy, Hamilton was used primarily off the bench as a defensive replacement and pinch runner. In parts of 71 games this year, he hit .220/.242/.378 and stole nine bases without getting caught.
• Ender Inciarte (31): Inciarte has always been revered more for his defensive skills than his bat, but his offense has slumped to new lows over the past couple seasons. This year, in 52 games, he hit just .215/.276/.316 and got released by Atlanta in July. He signed a minors deal with the Reds but opted out of that in September. He’ll probably have to settle for another minors deal this winter.
• Danny Santana (31): Signed by the Red Sox to a minor league deal in the offseason, Santana has gotten into 38 games for them, including 13 in center. On the season, he hit .181/.252/.345 for a wRC+ of 58. He’s now two years removed from his excellent 2019 season and will probably be looking at another minor league deal this winter. He’s played second, third and shortstop in the past, but over 2020 and 2021, he’s only seen time at first base and in the outfield.

Players With 2022 Options

Jackie Bradley Jr.(32): Bradley has had a dismal season at the plate, hitting .163/.236/.261, for a wRC+ of 35. He has a player option valued at $11MM, which he will certainly take instead of heading back to the open market with that kind of platform.

Brett Gardner (38): Gardner has a player option valued at $2.3MM, but if he declines, the Yankees have a team option valued at $7.15MM, with a buyout of $1.15MM. Gardner was thrust into everyday duty this season after Aaron Hicks went down with wrist surgery and wound up playing 105 games in center. Overall, he hit .222/.327/.362 for a wRC+ of 93 and 1.4 fWAR. The Yankees may be motivated to keep him around given the uncertainty surrounding Clint Frazier, but $7.15MM would be a big raise on this year’s $2.85MM salary. They previously declined club options on Gardner in 2018 and 2020 but subsequently agreed to new contracts, which seems like a distinct possibility for this winter as well.

Odubel Herrera (30): In July of 2019, Herrera was suspended for the remainder of the season for violating the MLB-MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy. He was designated for assignment after that season and cleared waivers, being outrighted to Triple-A. He made his way back to the roster in April 2021 and got into 124 games this season, hitting .260/.310/.416 for a wRC+ of 93. The Phillies can retain him for another year by picking up his $11.5MM option, but it seems more likely that they will buy him out for $2.5MM. However, if they do pick up the option, they’ll be able to control him for 2023 via another club option, this one valued at $12.5MM.

Jake Marisnick (31): Between the Cubs and Padres this year, Marisnick played 99 games, 52 of those in center field. He was passable at the plate when with the Cubs, slashing .227/.294/.438, but slumped after being traded to San Diego, hitting .188/.264/.208. The one-year deal he signed with the Cubs came with a $4MM mutual option for 2022. Mutual options are almost never exercised, meaning the Padres will likely just give him the $500K buyout.

Joc Pederson (30): Pederson played over 90 games in center in each season from 2015-2017, but it’s been much rarer since then: 32 games in 2018, 2 in 2019, none in 2020 and 26 in 2021. Similar to Canha, he’s more of a corner outfielder who could play center field if you really needed him to. However, his defensive prowess was below Canha’s in 2021, at least according to Statcast. Whereas they valued Canha as 3 OAA, Pederson is -5. Pederson has also seen his offensive numbers slide in recent years. After he logged a wRC+ of 116 or higher in 2015, 2016, 2018 and 2019, his slash line over the past couple seasons is .227/.304/.416, wRC+ of 93. His one-year deal that he signed with the Cubs for 2021 has a mutual option valued at $10MM, which is likely to be bought out by Atlanta at $2.5MM.

Kevin Pillar (33): Pillar signed a one-year deal with the Mets this offseason that came with a 2021 salary of $3.6MM, as well as an option for 2022. It’s a $2.9MM player option with no buyout, but if he doesn’t pick it up, the team has a $6.4MM club option with a $1.4MM buyout. In 124 games this year, Pillar hit .231/.277/.415 for a wRC+ of 90, while playing all three outfield positions. It seems unlikely that the team would pick up the club option, meaning Pillar will have to decide whether he would rather take the $2.9MM contract or turn that down in favour of the $1.4MM, then try to make up the difference in free agency.

Jurickson Profar (29): Profar was already written about in MLBTR’s posts about first basemen and second basemen. He can opt out of the remaining two years and $14MM on his contract, but seems unlikely to do so, given his meager .235/.335/.336 line on the season.

The quality of the 2021-22 free agent shortstop class has been discussed for years at this point. We’re just a few weeks away from that group actually hitting the open market, with a handful of young stars at the top of the class offering shortstop-needy clubs plenty of options.

Stars at the Top of the Class

Carlos Correa (27 years old next April): A former first overall pick and top prospect, Correa has long been on a trajectory towards a free agent megadeal. He was in the big leagues by age 20 and immediately a middle-of-the-order caliber hitter, a true franchise shortstop. Correa has never had strikeout problems, has always drawn walks, and hits for power. He was dinged up a bit early in his career — leading to some whispers about his durability — but his only IL stint of the last two seasons has come for feeling COVID-like symptoms in July.

Correa only hit at a league average level during last year’s shortened season, but he’s put that behind him with a huge 2021. Over 640 plate appearances, he posted a .279/.366/.485 line (134 wRC+) with 26 home runs. After some mixed results on defense early in his career, he’s rated as one of the league’s best with the glove for the past few seasons. Correa’s an impact player on both sides of the ball, the #1 position player by Baseball Reference WAR this season (#8 by FanGraphs WAR). Because he got to the majors so quickly, Correa’s hitting free agency in advance of his age-27 season, so he’ll have a few prime years to market.

Corey Seager (27): As with Correa, Seager’s a former top prospect who starred from Day One. He’s been a decidedly above-average hitter throughout his career, posting four seasons with a wRC+ of 125 or above. There aren’t any nits to pick in Seager’s offensive profile, either. He’s a left-handed power bat who rarely strikes out and draws a fair amount of walks. Seager consistently places near the top of the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard contact rate, and few hitters have been better over the past two years.

Seager fractured his right hand on a hit-by-pitch in May, costing him more than a month. That kept his counting stats down a bit this year, but on a rate basis, Seager was as good as ever. He hit .306/.394/.521 (147 wRC+) over 407 plate appearances. Going back to the start of 2020, he ranks eighth leaguewide in wRC+, and that’s without accounting for a massive playoff run last season that culminated in World Series MVP honors. Defensive metrics have generally pegged Seager as average or a bit below in recent seasons, but there aren’t many more impactful offensive players at any position around the league.

Marcus Semien (31): Semien spent the bulk of this season manning second base for the Blue Jays in deference to Bo Bichette. He was a shortstop up until this year, and he rated as one of the game’s premier defenders at the keystone in 2021. Teams might be split on where they prefer Semien, but it seems likely there’ll be at least a few who’d consider moving him back to shortstop depending upon their current roster situation.

Semien led MLB with 724 plate appearances, and he hit a whopping .265/.334/.538. He popped 45 home runs, the fourth-highest total in the league, and stole fifteen bags. Semien completely regained his peak offensive form after an average 2020, and he took to his new position with ease. Semien’s age will keep him from landing the length or total guarantee of the market’s younger stars, but he’s wrapping up his second elite season in the past three years and leads all position players in FanGraphs WAR since the start of 2019. There’s no doubt at this point Semien’s an elite player, and a five or six-year deal that easily eclipses $100MM should be on the table with how well he’s performed.

Trevor Story (29): It wasn’t a banner year for Story, who started off slowly at the plate. He turned things around a bit in the second half, but his overall .251/.329/.471 line was his worst since 2017. Story’s had fairly dramatic home-road splits, at least a moderate concern for a player in Colorado. Most of the damage he did this season came against left-handed pitching, as Story was a well below-average hitter (.234/.318/.417) against righties.

It’s clearly not the ideal time for Story to hit the market for the first time, but he’ll still have plenty of points in his favor. None of his batted ball metrics were much changed from recent seasons. Once one of the game’s highest-strikeout hitters, Story has consistently cut down on the swing-and-miss as he’s gotten more experience and now only punches out at a league average rate. He was plagued by a career-low .293 batting average on balls in play, which interested teams will likely count on bouncing back moving forward. And Story typically rates as one of the game’s best defensive shortstops (although metrics were more divided on his performance this year). Even in a relative “down” season, Story was worth around three-to-four wins above replacement, and he’s shown the ability to be a true impact player in prior years.

Javier Báez (29): Báez is one of the game’s toughest players to evaluate on the heels of an up-and-down couple of seasons. He had a disastrous 2020 with the Cubs and started slowly again in 2021. But he started to heat up in July, and he only got better after a deadline day trade to the Mets, hitting .299/.371/.515 over 186 plate appearances in Queens.

There are some obvious areas of concern in Báez’s profile. Of the 210 hitters with 500+ plate appearances since the start of 2020, nobody has swung and missed more. Only Salvador Pérez and José Iglesias have chased more pitches outside the strike zone. And what Báez did this season is somewhat unprecedented; he’s the only player (min. 500 PA) to have an above-average hitting season while striking out as often and walking as infrequently as he did this year.

Yet Báez has always had something of an alarming approach, and he’s continued to thrive in spite of it. He hits for power, runs the bases well and is regarded as an excellent defensive infielder. Aside from the abbreviated 2020 campaign, Báez has been a well above-average performer since 2018, and he’s one of the sport’s most entertaining and popular players. Unlike with the other top of the market shortstops, signing Báez wouldn’t cost a team draft pick compensation. The midseason trade makes him ineligible to be tagged with a qualifying offer.

Chris Taylor (31): Taylor hasn’t played a whole lot of shortstop over the past couple seasons, but he’s still capable of manning the position as needed. He’s moved all over the diamond for the Dodgers, spending the bulk of this season in center field and at second base.

Taylor has been a bit unheralded on a Dodgers’ roster loaded with superstars (at least until his heroics in this week’s Wild Card game), but he’s been a consistently above-average hitter with passable defensive marks virtually everywhere he plays. He strikes out a fair amount, but he also hits for power, walks and consistently runs high batting averages on balls in play. His bat cooled off in the second half after a scorching start to the season, but Taylor’s track record and versatility make him a likely qualifying offer recipient and candidate to land a strong three or four-year contract. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently broke down Taylor’s impending free agency at greater length.

Potential Regulars

Freddy Galvis (32): Galvis has carved out a solid career as a glove-first player who offers consistently below-average but passable offense. He’s a switch-hitter with some power who generally puts the ball in play. Galvis doesn’t walk much, leading to low on-base percentages, and his defensive marks have dipped a bit in recent seasons. Teams aren’t going to view Galvis as an impact addition, but he consistently does enough on both sides of the ball to be a regular who chips in one-to-two wins above replacement per season.

Andrelton Simmons (32): Simmons has a strong case as the best defensive infielder of his generation. He posts eye-popping Defensive Runs Saved totals year in and year out, with highlight reel plays a frequent occurrence. At his best, Simmons combined that incredible glovework with league average offense, driven by an ability to seemingly never strike out. That offense has fallen off dramatically over the past three seasons, though, and Simmons hit only .223/.283/.274 over 451 plate appearances with the Twins this year. He might have a hard time landing an everyday job coming off such a poor showing at the plate, but even as he’s entered his 30’s, Simmons remains one of the sport’s most electrifying and valuable defenders.

José Iglesias (32): Iglesias never quite matched up to Simmons, but he’s offered a broadly similar profile. A high-contact hitter with an elite glove, Iglesias has had his share of productive seasons. He posted a huge, albeit BABIP-inflated, shortened 2020 season, but his offense dipped back to its typical levels (.271/.309/.391) this year. Were Iglesias still an elite defender, that’d be more than enough to make him a productive regular. But his defensive numbers bizarrely plummeted, with Iglesias rating as a league-worst 21 runs below average at shortstop according to DRS. That’ll put a damper on his market, but a team that believes in his ability to bounce back from those uncharacteristic struggles might still give him an opportunity at an everyday job.

Jonathan Villar (30): Villar had a nice season with the Mets, bouncing back from a disappointing 2020 to hit .249/.322/.416. That’s slightly above-average hitting, and the former stolen base champ continues to provide additional value on the basepaths. Villar’s not a great defender anywhere but he’s capable of playing throughout the infield and has a bit of outfield experience. It’s possible he’s done enough this year to earn an everyday job somewhere, although it seems likelier first-division clubs would see him as a high-end insurance option off the bench.

Utility Types

Leury García (31): García has had a nice few seasons on the South Side of Chicago. He’s a switch-hitting utilityman who can cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. García doesn’t hit for power or draw many walks, but he makes a fair amount of contact and has been right around league average offensively over the past couple seasons.

Marwin González (33): González hit just .201/.281/.285 before the Red Sox cut him loose. He popped three homers in 36 plate appearances since re-signing with Houston, but he only posted a .222 OBP in his second stint as an Astro. That’s two consecutive miserable seasons for González, who followed up an outstanding 2017 campaign with back-to-back league average seasons before dropping off substantially since the start of 2020.

Andrew Romine (36): Romine saw a decent amount of action with the Tigers between 2014-17, bouncing all around the diamond in a reserve capacity. He’s never offered much at the plate, though, and he only tallied four combined plate appearances between 2019-20 before returning for a 26-game stint with the Cubs this year.

Prior installments in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base