MLBTR Originals News & Rumors

As the top free agents continue to linger on the market, an increasing number of fans have begun to inquire — on social media, in the comments at MLBTR, in questions to the MLBTR Podcast and in our regular chats here at MLBTR — about the possibility of any of the top four pivoting to a short-term deal. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently outlined the potential pitfalls in that scenario for lefty Blake Snell, whose stock isn’t likely to ever be higher than it is right now coming off his second career Cy Young win at 31 years of age. Jordan Mongtomery, likewise, probably won’t have a better platform than this past year’s postseason heroics. Like Snell, he’d be 32 next winter, which won’t do his earning potential any favors. Matt Chapman is also heading into his age-31 season.

If there’s one of the “big four” who might be best-suited to go with a short-term deal, it’s the youngest of the bunch: Cody Bellinger. At 28 years of age (29 in July), a return trip to free agency for Bellinger would come at a time when he’d still be positioned as one of the youngest names on the market. A short-term deal for Bellinger would also allow him to hit free agency next winter without a qualifying offer — he rejected one from the Cubs in November, and players can only receive one QO in their career — and it could provide him the opportunity to “prove” that his 2023 output wasn’t a fluke.

After a pair of injury-ruined 2021-22 seasons, Bellinger was non-tendered by the Dodgers. He’d undergone shoulder surgery following the 2020 season, and agent Scott Boras has unsurprisingly contended that Bellinger was never fully healthy during that pair of dreary seasons in ’21-’22, when he slashed a combined .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances. The Cubs bet $17.5MM on Bellinger bouncing back to something closer to his prior Rookie of the Year and NL MVP form and were rewarded with a huge .306/.356/.525 slash with 26 homers and 20 steals.

It was an outstanding resurgence but not one without its red flags. Bellinger’s 15.6% strikeout rate was a career-low, but his 7.2% walk rate was the second-lowest of his career. More concerning to interested teams was Bellinger’s batted-ball profile. Despite his success at the plate, Bellinger ranked in the 27th percentile or lower among MLB hitters in terms of average exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. At his peak, Bellinger was a hard-contact juggernaut who ranked among the league leaders in virtually every Statcast category of note. The opposite was true in 2023, and there are likely some teams who wonder whether he can continue to produce at such lofty levels in the absence of premium (or even league-average) quality of contact.

It puts Bellinger in a precarious situation. He surely feels he’s back to his MVP form, but players coming off such a dominant performance rarely have to take a one-year “prove-it” deal. Bellinger and Boras surely feel he’s already “proven it” and that the 2021-22 can now be framed as injury-marred outliers. Teams are clearly wary of regression, if not all the way to the miserable 2021-22 output than to something decidedly less than his 2023 output.

It’s not an identical situation to the one faced by Carlos Correa in free agency two winters ago, but there are some parallels. Both were atypically young free agents and were regarded as strong defenders at premium positions. Both had won Rookie of the Year early in their careers. Neither was at his offensive peak upon reaching free agency. Correa didn’t enter the 2021-22 offseason with the Boras Corporation representing him, but he changed agencies and hired Boras midway through the offseason.

Correa’s eventual contract — a three-year, $105.3MM deal with the Twins — shocked baseball, both due to the landing spot and to the fact that top-ranked free agents rarely settle for such a short-term arrangement. He had a pair of opt-outs baked into the contract, allowing him two more bites at the free agent apple.

A similar structure, logically speaking, could provide Bellinger some protection against another injury or regression while still rewarding his massive rebound season with a top-tier annual value. There’s some merits and risk for both parties, even if it’s not the type of deal he envisioned upon bouncing back to such lofty heights with the Cubs.

The problem Bellinger might run into, however, is finding the 2024 equivalent of the 2022 Twins. Minnesota was a clear postseason hopeful aiming to win now but also had plenty of payroll room at that late stage of the offseason. The Twins were also nowhere near the luxury tax threshold. It looked like an ideal short-term partnership (though it’s obviously since turned into at least a seven-year match).

For Bellinger, the landscape looks different. Right now, there are only five Major League teams whose projected payroll is more than $20MM south of their 2023 payroll levels. Two — the White Sox and Rockies — aren’t aiming to contend and aren’t likely to put down a lucrative short-term offer for Bellinger. A third, the Padres, is only facing such a gap between current spending and 2023 spending because they’ve actively been working to cut payroll by as much as $50MM. Signing Bellinger isn’t in the cards, barring a major last-minute philosophical shift. That’s particularly true when considering that the Padres are $22MM shy of the luxury threshold; signing Bellinger would put them right back into the tax penalty when it’s clearly been a goal to reset that level.

The luxury tax is a key issue here, too. Signing Bellinger short-term will likely require a high annual value and multiple opt-outs. For a team that’s already in luxury territory, that means a potentially exorbitant overall price. As such, when looking for Bellinger landing spots on a short-term deal, it’s best to break the 30 teams up into a few different categories. Let’s run through them…

Current Luxury Tax Payors

Phillies: Over the past week, there’s been plenty of speculation about the Phillies jumping at one of the top four free agents on a short-term deal. That’s primarily due to president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski’s comment that he can’t promise that no further additions are coming because an unexpected opportunity can always present itself. But the Phils are a third-time payor who already have a projected $261MM of luxury obligations, putting them firmly into the second tier. Even a conservative estimate of a $25MM AAV on a short-term deal would mean paying a 62% tax on the contract’s first $16MM and a 95% tax on the final $9MM. In other words, it’d cost the Phillies around $18.5MM in taxes on top of Bellinger’s actual salary. Assuming an evenly distributed $25MM, that’s a total of $43MM in just 2024 to sign Bellinger. And, again, on a short-term deal the AAV will likely be much higher. Correa’s AAV was $35.1MM.

Astros: Houston’s $254MM of projected luxury obligations is a near-perfect match with Philadelphia. Unlike the Phillies, the Astros are only a first-time offender right now. They’d owe a 20% tax on the first $2MM of Bellinger’s deal, a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax thereafter. Bellinger would push them into the third tier of penalization, meaning their top pick in the 2024 draft would be pushed back 10 spots. The Astros already have a record-high payroll. Signing Bellinger for even a $25MM AAV would cost around $8.675MM in taxes on top of his salary, require the forfeiture of their second-highest draft pick (by virtue of the QO) and knock their top pick back by 10 spots. Ouch.

Rangers: If Texas were going to push further into luxury territory than their current projection of $243MM (just $6MM over the first threshold), it’d surely be to sign a pitcher — likely Montgomery. The outfield is already largely set with Evan Carter, Leody Taveras and Adolis Garcia, with top prospect Wyatt Langford blitzing toward the majors. GM Chris Young has all but said he’s done signing Major League free agents. This match isn’t happening.

Blue Jays: The Jays are about $11MM over the first luxury barrier. They’re a second-time payor. That’d mean a 30% tax on the first $9MM or so of Bellinger’s deal, plus a 42.5% tax on the next $20MM and a 72.5% tax on anything thereafter (in addition to the same draft losses outlined for the Astros). GM Ross Atkins has said any notable addition would likely require subtracting elsewhere on the roster. The Jays could fit Bellinger into the mix by giving George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. more time at designated hitter, but Atkins’ comments make this hard to see. Just for illustrative purposes, a $25MM AAV on a Bellinger deal would cost the Jays $9.5MM in taxes, while jumping into Correa range would mean about $15.5MM in taxes (on top of his 2024 salary).

Braves: Atlanta is rolling with a Jarred Kelenic–Michael Harris II-Ronald Acuña Jr. outfield, with Matt Olson at first base and Marcell Ozuna at designated hitter. They don’t fit even from a roster vantage point, and they’re already $33MM over the tax line anyhow. It’s interesting to note that between the contracts they ate and the associated taxes, they wound up spending about $26MM to take on Kelenic, which isn’t all that far off from what Bellinger might end up costing — but that was much earlier in the offseason.

Yankees, Mets, Dodgers: The Yankees don’t really have room in their outfield, and the Dodgers/Bellinger relationship might not be the healthiest at the moment anyhow. Regardless, all three of these clubs are third-time payors who are already into the top luxury tier, meaning any additional dollars spent come with a 110% tax. Signing Bellinger to a $25MM AAV deal would mean $27.5MM in taxes. Bump that to $30MM AAV and you’re at $33MM in taxes. A $35MM AAV matching Correa comes with $38.5MM in taxes. All of that is on top of any salary for Bellinger.

Relatively Close to the Luxury Tax

Cubs: The incumbents! It’s not the spiciest take to suggest it, but this still seems like the most logical fit. The Cubs obviously wouldn’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign Bellinger, since they’re the ones who made him the QO (although they would give up the right to receive a compensation pick). He’d “block” Pete Crow-Armstrong in center field or Michael Busch at first base, but perhaps only for a year. And, with injuries, both PCA and Busch would very likely still get their opportunities. The Cubs are $29MM shy of the luxury tax threshold and have $195MM in actual payroll commitments. Bellinger would push them well past the $203MM franchise-record mark and perhaps just over the first luxury tier, but should that matter? This is the cleanest and best fit, and a short-term arrangement should only add to the appeal.

Red Sox: Like so many of the teams on this list, if the Sox were to make one more big splash, it’d probably be on pitching (likely Montgomery). Boston is $39MM from the tax line and sits at $177MM in actual payroll commitments. They have the financial wherewithal to do this, but they also have an outfield of Tyler O’Neill, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela — with DH Masataka Yoshida also in the fold. This doesn’t feel viable.

Angels: The Angels’ focus should be on pitching, but owner Arte Moreno has historically balked at long-term deals for starting pitchers. The Halos have Taylor Ward and Mike Trout in the outfield, but Mickey Moniak and Jo Adell aren’t the most exciting options for the remaining spot. Moniak hit well in 2023 but did so with a .397 BABIP and 35% strikeout rate that both scream for regression. Adell was once a top prospect but is out of options and hasn’t established himself. Moreno said this week the team will likely operate on a lesser budget in 2024, but we’ve seen time and again that he’s drawn to star hitters and Bellinger on a short-term deal would fit that mold. With $188MM in tax obligations, the Angels could sign Bellinger and still avoid reaching the threshold.

D-backs: Arizona is already at a new record payroll ($142MM) and is surprisingly within striking distance of the $237MM tax line ($189MM). Bellinger wouldn’t put them over, but signing him would require a level of aggression we’ve not seen from the Snakes since they shocked the world with their Zack Greinke signing nearly a decade ago. The Diamondbacks don’t need outfielders, necessarily, but center fielder Alek Thomas hasn’t proven himself at the plate. On a short-term deal, could GM Mike Hazen feel opportunistic?

Padres: The entire baseball world has learned to never say never with regard to San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, but in an offseason where they Padres have been trying to cut payroll by as much as $50MM and have pronounced questions at the back of the rotation, this feels like a bridge too far. If the Friars were to trade Ha-Seong Kim, pick up some kind of arm in that deal and then reallocate some of the savings to Bellinger, you could almost squint and see it. Typing this feels crazy, but that’s often how I feel when writing about Padres moves that actually did happen as well. The Padres are $25MM shy of the tax line at the moment. Signing Bellinger likely puts them over for a third straight year, meaning a 30% tax on a portion of his deal.

Giants: San Francisco already signed a center fielder to a nine-figure deal. They now have an all-lefty outfield and substantial questions in the rotation. It does feel like the Giants have the capacity for one more big move — they’re $33MM from their franchise-record payroll and $24MM from the luxury tax threshold — but if they make that move it’ll probably be on a pitcher. Still, they could probably sign Bellinger short-term and only cross into tax territory by $5-8MM. And since they didn’t cross the CBT threshold in ’23, they’d only be hit with a 20% tax.

Nowhere Near the Luxury Tax

Royals: Let’s get weird! I don’t think anyone seriously expects the Royals to sign Bellinger … but no one seriously expected the Twins to sign Correa. They also didn’t expect the Royals to sign Bobby Witt Jr. to a $288.78MM extension, or to spend a (so far) combined $109.5MM on seven big league deals in free agency this winter. But here we are! This would be a shocking fit — more shocking than the Twins signing Correa — but take a look at the Kansas City outfield candidates: MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel, Drew Waters, Nelson Velazquez, Hunter Renfroe, Dairon Blanco. Bellinger is an immediate upgrade over every member of that group. The Royals currently project for a $115MM payroll and $161MM of luxury obligations. They’re around $28MM shy of their franchise-record payroll, which came back in 2017 and under a different owner.

Mariners: The M’s have been operating under TV-related budget constraints. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has never signed a free agent hitter to a contract larger or longer than Mitch Garver‘s two-year, $24MM deal since taking the reins in Seattle. This doesn’t seem particularly plausible barring a late change in approach from ownership. Perhaps the allure of signing a star like Bellinger short-term would be enough to spur that tactical shift. It’s unlikely, but we’re talking about dark horses here, aren’t we?

Twins: Like the Mariners, the Twins have been working to reduce payroll. Their current projection of $123.5MM is right around the bottom end of their reported $125-140MM target range for payroll. Minnesota has been open to adding a right-handed-hitting outfielder and further rotation depth. They did this with Correa, so let’s not rule them out entirely. But if they were to, say, trade Kyle Farmer to free up $6.3MM and then make one more notable addition, a pitcher like Montgomery seems much more plausible than another lefty-swinging outfielder.

Orioles: If the Orioles make another big splash after Corbin Burnes, it seems likely to be on a pitcher. Their outfield is set with Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander, plus top prospects like Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad on the MLB doorstep.

Cardinals, Brewers: The Cardinals already have more outfielders than they know what to do with, and Bellinger isn’t going to displace Paul Goldschmidt at first base. Milwaukee has a similar situation in the outfield, and they’ve got Rhys Hoskins at first base.

Tigers: President of baseball operations Scott Harris suggested this week he’s not inclined to sign another “everyday-type” hitter, instead preferring to give legitimate looks to the team’s young hitters. With Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, Kerry Carpenter and veteran Mark Canha in the outfield/DH mix, plus Spencer Torkelson at first base, there isn’t a great roster fit here anyhow.

Pirates, Marlins, Reds, Guardians, Rays: Five of the lowest-payroll clubs in the game. It seems safe to say no one from this group is going to seriously pursue Bellinger, even on a short-term deal.

Nationals, A’s, Rockies, White Sox: All four of these teams are in some form of rebuild/reset. The A’s certainly aren’t going to spend this type of money. Nats GM Mike Rizzo suggested he’s done adding MLB free agents. The Rockies balked at Bellinger’s one-year price last winter and are in a worse spot now. Maybe you could call the White Sox an off-the-wall dark horse, but would GM Chris Getz forfeit a draft pick to sign Bellinger short-term, knowing he’d either opt out next winter or perform poorly enough to be an unwanted contract in 2025? Doubtful.

—

The ideal fit for Bellinger on a short-term deal is a team that’s not already a tax payor or is only minimally over the line. The Cubs have been considered something of a presumptive favorite due to Bellinger’s strong year there in 2023, but as outlined above, they also make sense both from a roster and financial standpoint. Other plausible long-shot options when considering the tax and payroll ramifications could include the Angels and Giants. The Padres could add Bellinger without paying substantial taxes, but it’d run counter to the team’s cost-cutting efforts this winter. Long-shot fits with the D-backs and particularly the Royals sound a bit more sensible than one might imagine at first blush.

We certainly don’t know that Bellinger will wind up going short-term, but he’s the most sensible candidate to do so of the remaining marquee Boras clients, and if he goes that route, it could open the door for some unexpected suitors.