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Big Hype Prospects: Triantos, Tiedemann, Roby, Muncy, Pauley

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After one week of play in the Arizona Fall League, several of the under-the-radar players we featured last week are off to strong starts. Heading the charge is Jakob Marsee whose 1.725 OPS leads the league. He’s one of five hitters with a pair of dingers and leads with six extra base hits. He’s recorded four walks to two strikeouts and added four stolen bases. Damiano Palmegiani is also among the top ten hitters while Carter Baumler arguably turned in the best appearance among the pitchers. He went three frames and recorded seven strikeouts.

Let’s see who else merits a look.

Five Big Hype Prospects

James Triantos, 20, 2B/3B, CHC
(A+/AA) 363 PA, 4 HR, 16 SB, .287/.364/.391

Triantos spent much of the 2023 campaign in High-A. My contacts have long liked the 2020 draftee as a breakout candidate, but his in-game power output remains below expectations. There’s late bloomer talk as a result. Bear in mind, we’ve grown a bit spoiled with precocious players who aren’t yet of legal drinking age. On the defensive side, there’s are concerns he won’t stick at second base. His bat might not work in a corner role. Triantos has a 1.230 OPS in 16 AFL plate appearances.

Ricky Tiedemann, 21, P, TOR
(CPX/A/AA/AAA) 44 IP, 16.77 K/9, 4.70 BB/9, 3.68 ERA

One of the top prospects in the AFL, Tiedemann is drawing extra work after managing only 44 regular season innings. Those regular season frames were among the best in the Jays system – he led their entire farm in several ERA estimators. The bulk of the action came in Double-A where a high walk rate, BABIP, and low left on base rate led to a 5.06 ERA. Tiedemann is a candidate to make the 2024 Blue Jays, but it’s also likely he’ll have his workload carefully managed. Role: tbd. Through one AFL start, he worked five innings and allowed one run on three hits and three walks with seven strikeouts.

Tekoah Roby, 22, SP, STL
(AA) 58.1 IP, 10.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 4.94 ERA

Like Tiedemann, Roby is getting extra work in the AFL due to missed time during the regular season. After being traded at the deadline, the right-hander pitched impressively in four starts for the Cardinals. His AFL outing consisted of three shutout innings. He allowed one hit with five strikeouts. He features a repertoire of four above-average pitches led by an excellent curveball. FanGraphs drops a Hunter Brown comp. Personally, I smell a whiff of Aaron Nola. He’s trending high floor, high ceiling as a prospect.

Notably, the Cardinals have struggled to finish their pitching prospects. Their matriculated pitchers like Zack Thompson and Matthew Liberatore often show little understanding of pitch design. Even Johan Oviedo took an instant step forward upon leaving the Cardinals. It’s unclear if this is a persistent organizational failure or pure happenstance.

Max Muncy, 21, SS, OAK
(A+/AA) 545 PA, 10 HR, 13 SB, .275/.353/.411

While most facets of his game remain a work in progress, Muncy appears to be trending toward some form of big league future. The 2021 first-rounder made considerable strides with his contact rate during the 2023 campaign. Scouts mostly view him as a utility guy in the making, although there’s still plenty of time for him to develop the game power and defensive consistency necessary to serve as a regular. His AFL season is off to a splashy start with a 1.009 OPS in 18 plate appearances.

Graham Pauley, 23, 3B, SD (AA)
(A/A+/AA) 551 PA, 23 HR, 22 SB, .308/.393/.538

Since their minor league affiliates skew hitter-friendly, the Padres have a knack for producing exciting-looking position players who fade on the approach run to the Majors. Success stories like Ty France tend to be the exception rather than the rule. Pauley didn’t have much of a draft pedigree when he was selected in 2022, but he’s since developed a reputation as a guy who gets the job done despite unconventional hitting mechanics. A left-handed hitting corner fielder with an extreme pull approach, he might reach the Majors as a carefully managed platoon man – the kind of player favored by teams like the Brewers, Rays, and Giants.

Three More

Adam Seminaris, MIL (24): Acquired in the Hunter Renfroe trade, Seminaris is Rule 5 eligible this offseason. He’s playing for a roster spot in Milwaukee or elsewhere. The soft-tossing southpaw is off to a good start in the AFL. He worked four scoreless innings with one hit and seven strikeouts.

Jackson Jobe, DET (21): One of the fastest-rising pitching prospects, Jobe is rounding out a season that saw him throw about 20 fewer innings than 2022. Since Jobe could be a midseason consideration for the Tigers, his workload is of obvious concern. His AFL debut consisted of four shutout innings with two hits, two walks, and four strikeouts.

Chase DeLauter, CLE (22): DeLauter is the current AFL RBI leader. Like many a Guardians outfield prospect, DeLauter rarely whiffs. His awkward-looking swing has no analogs in the Majors. It looks a bit like a stumbling-drunk Alek Thomas. While credited with plus raw power, it’s unclear if his bat will play against stiffer competition.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

The Yankees’ Offseason Middle Infield Question

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MLBTR released our annual projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players last week. Among the class, only Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had a higher figure than Gleyber Torres. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects the Yankee second baseman for a salary in the $15.3MM range for his final year of club control.

Torres has earned that lofty estimate with consistent offense through his five-plus seasons in the majors. He’s a career .267/.334/.454 hitter in a little over 3000 trips to the plate and has been above-average in five of six campaigns. This past season was typical for the righty-swinging infielder. Torres connected on 25 homers with a .273/.347/.453 showing across 672 plate appearances. He walked at a strong 10% clip while punching out only 14.6% of the time, the lowest rate of his career.

The glove is less reliable. Torres was a well below-average defender at shortstop earlier in his career. He has received tolerable but fringy grades from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average at second base. Torres isn’t in danger of moving off the keystone. The bat carries the profile, though.

Even with a projected salary north of $15MM, Torres isn’t a non-tender candidate. He’s an above-average regular who would immediately be the best player available in a barren free agent middle infield class were the Yankees to inexplicably cut him loose. It’s fairly common for teams to consider trade scenarios for good but not elite players headed into their final seasons of club control on lofty projected salaries. That’s a more realistic possibility.

Dealing veterans in the five-plus year service class isn’t solely a move made by non-contenders. The Blue Jays (Teoscar Hernández), Brewers (Hunter Renfroe) and Twins (Gio Urshela) all made such moves last offseason and still made a playoff run. Toronto dealt Hernández for affordable bullpen help in right-hander Erik Swanson and to clear room in the outfield for a more defense-oriented group with the subsequent acquisitions of Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier. Milwaukee and Minnesota made their moves mostly with payroll in mind, though the Brewers did bring in middle reliever Elvis Peguero as part of the Renfroe return.

Clearly, the Yankees aren’t operating with the same financial constraints as the Brewers or Twins. Yet both those teams were also freed up to part with a solid veteran regular because they felt a young, pre-arbitration player could step up in the near future. Milwaukee had outfield prospects Joey Wiemer and Sal Frelick on the doorstep of the big leagues. The Twins were set to turn third base to second-year player José Miranda, with former first overall pick Royce Lewis a midseason possibility for an infield role following his return from ACL surgery.

For the Yankees, the biggest question might be whether they believe 23-year-old Oswald Peraza is capable of assuming that mantle. Peraza, who debuted with a strong 18-game showing late in 2022, spent the bulk of last season in Triple-A. He had a solid .268/.357/.479 line in 300 plate appearances there. The Yankees recalled him once they fell out of contention in late August. Peraza got regular infield run for five weeks but didn’t make an impact. He hit just .198/.236/.306 in 33 games to close out the year.

It’d be easier for general manager Brian Cashman and his front office to pencil Peraza for an everyday role in 2024 had he taken advantage of that opportunity. There’s nevertheless still an argument that’s their best course of action. Peraza is out of options, so the Yankees can’t send him back to Triple-A. (He’d surely be claimed on waivers if they tried to take him off the 40-man roster.) He’ll have to be on the major league roster unless the Yankees surprisingly traded him. If they’re hopeful he’ll be able an above-average regular at some point, it makes sense to get him consistent playing time.

That could come at third base, where Peraza spent the majority of his time in September. The Yankees received a putrid .221/.294/.361 slash from that position this year. That includes below-average work from the since-released Josh Donaldson, impending free agent Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Peraza himself. DJ LeMahieu was the other player with extended action at the position. The 35-year-old had a league average season overall despite solid production in the second half.

If the Yankees still view LeMahieu as an everyday player or land a free agent at the hot corner like Jeimer Candelario, the keystone becomes the obvious position for Peraza. The organization stuck with Anthony Volpe at shortstop through a middling offensive season. He outperformed most expectations defensively and seems entrenched there. Anthony Rizzo is expected back at first base, where LeMahieu saw most of his reps in the season’s final month.

There’s enough infield talent the Yankees could turn to the trade market on Torres. New York has a number of issues on the roster. There are questions in both outfield spots opposite Aaron Judge. Injuries or down years for each of Carlos Rodón, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas (the latter two of whom are headed to free agency) exposed the rotation depth in 2023. Their catchers contributed almost nothing offensively.

New York will have to address some of those shortcomings via free agency. Shopping Torres is another potential avenue for upgrading a different area of the roster. As the Hernández, Renfroe and Urshela deals demonstrate, there’s not immense trade value with one relatively costly season of a solid regular. While Torres is probably the best player of that group, he’s likely to also be the most expensive.

There’s more trade appeal now than there would be midseason, however. If the Yankees trade Torres during the offseason, an acquiring club could make him a qualifying offer at the end of next season — thereby entitling them to draft compensation if he departs in free agency. That wouldn’t be possible if Torres were dealt at next summer’s deadline, since teams can only make a QO to a player who spent the entire season on their roster.

The demand for middle infield solutions might also never be higher. The free agent second base class is headlined by the likes of Whit Merrifield, Amed Rosario and Adam Frazier. For teams trying to upgrade at the keystone — the White Sox, Mariners and Tigers may all fit that description and have short-term payroll space — the trade market is the clearest path.

Whether any team would be willing to make a strong enough offer for the Yankees to part with their second-best hitter won’t be known until the offseason. New York’s offense was a disaster when Judge went on the injured list. Trading Torres would thin it further unless they directly swapped him for a similarly productive outfield bat. Cashman and his staff have kicked around trade scenarios regarding Torres in the past and have yet to get a deal they find compelling. If they feel Peraza warrants a similar extended look to the one they gave Volpe this year, they could explore the market again this offseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mitch Garver’s Unusual Platform Season

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The upcoming free agent class has long looked like it would be much heavier on pitching than hitting, and that situation only became more extreme as players at or near the top of the class like Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, and Ian Happ signed extensions prior to the 2023 campaign. Headed into the season, it looked as if the only surefire impact position players available would be two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani and glove-first third baseman Matt Chapman, particularly when slugging outfielder Teoscar Hernandez struggled badly to open the year. One name that didn’t receive much attention prior to his platform season was Mitch Garver, the Rangers catcher who had appeared in just 37.8% of his teams’ games since the start of the 2020 season due to injuries.

Texas defied preseason expectations to lead the AL West throughout the entire first half, lost eight consecutive games in late August to fall into a three-way tie with the Mariners and Astros in the win column, then ultimately missed the AL West crown after posting a 90-72 record identical to that of Houston’s division champs. Despite all of that uncertainty, Garver has been a stabilizing presence when in the club’s lineup. The 32-year-old slashed an impressive .270/.370/.500 across 344 trips to the plate with the Rangers this season while posting his lowest strikeout rate (23.8%) since 2019 and a career-best mark for walk rate (12.8%).

To put those numbers into perspective, Garver’s 138 wRC+ this year is tied with Brandon Belt and Ryan Jeffers for the 15th-best mark in the majors among players with at least 300 plate appearances this season. This puts Garver ahead of the likes of Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout, and Luis Arraez, and just a few points players like Kyle Tucker and Bryce Harper. Making Garver’s offensive capabilities more enticing is his ability to play catcher. Among all catchers with at least 150 plate appearances in 2023, Garver ranks second in on-base percentage, third in slugging percentage, third in walk rate, and he is tied with Jeffers for second in wRC+ (behind only Tom Murphy’s 47-game season with the Mariners).

Given the weak offensive free agent class, Garver’s prowess with the bat, and his ability to play behind the plate, one might assume that the veteran is on his way to a top-of-the-market payday this offseason. However, Garver’s situation isn’t that simple. Beyond the fact that he’ll play the 2024 campaign at age-33, there’s also the concern of his lengthy injury history. Garver missed six weeks with a sprained knee earlier this season, and in recent years has also missed time due to forearm, groin, back, intercostal, and ankle issues. Between those injuries and his role as a catcher requiring more days off than most everyday players, Garver has played just 209 games the past three seasons despite being a clear everyday talent when healthy.

Upon his return from the injured list in June, the Rangers helped Garver stay on the field by utilizing him primarily as a designated hitter. Though he hit well in the role, he was limited to just 25 games behind the plate over the season’s final four months, which will surely raise questions for potential suitors regarding Garver’s ability to catch regularly going forward.

As a DH, Garver would still have value, though it would be significantly reduced. Belt and J.D. Martinez are two examples of defensively-limited sluggers in their mid-thirties who posted similar numbers to Garver in 2023, and both ended up signing one-year deals this past offseason. That’s not to say Garver will necessarily be limited to similarly short-term offers, though it’s hard to imagine a player of his age and injury history approaching the much more significant contract (five years, $87.5MM) commanded by Willson Contreras last year, despite Contreras being a fellow catcher with relatively comparable offensive numbers in recent years.

That seems particularly true given that Garver seems to best fit a team with another reliable catching option, so Garver could have a clear path to DH playing time and face less pressure to regularly suit up behind the plate. Of course, the Rangers have such an arrangement, with Jonah Heim as the club’s everyday catcher and plenty of DH starts available for Garver. The Cubs and Padres are among other teams who could theoretically provide Garver with occasional time behind the plate next year alongside regular backstops Yan Gomes and Luis Campusano while allowing him to DH the majority of the time, which would seem to be the best approach in order to maximize both Garver’s talents and time on the field.

The Orioles Rotation Is In Better Shape Than You Might Think

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The Orioles have been defined by defying expectations all season long. The club was afforded just 1.3% odds of winning the AL East over at Fangraphs when the 2023 season began back in March, with a projected record of just 76-86 that made them the only team in their division projected to finish below .500. Despite those long odds, however, Baltimore’s youngsters managed to propel themselves to a 101-win season that placed them firmly atop not only their division, but the entire AL, as only the Braves won more games in 2023.

Despite the club’s regular season success, however, the club was still far from favored in the postseason race. Entering October, the Orioles were given just a 6.5% chance of winning the World Series, odds worse than not just the Braves but also the Dodgers, Astros, and even their division-rival Blue Jays. Concern over Baltimore’s ability to translate their regular season success into the postseason seems to revolve primarily around one thing: the club’s pitching staff.

While the loss of closer Felix Bautista to Tommy John surgery hurts the club’s bullpen, much of the concern regarding the Orioles has been directed toward the club’s starting rotation. It’s not hard to see why; the club’s 10.7 fWAR from the rotation this season is just 16th in the majors, better than only the Dodgers among playoff teams. Other metrics are similarly lukewarm on Baltimore’s group: they rank 11th in rotation ERA, 13th in rotation FIP, and 16th in strikeout rate.

When looking at the individual pieces of the club’s rotation, it’s easy to see why the club’s overall numbers are uninspiring. Throughout the 2023 campaign, the Orioles relied on nine pitchers to start games of them: Kyle Gibson, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, Tyler Wells, Cole Irvin, Jack Flaherty, John Means, and Keegan Akin. Only Means (157), Bradish (146) and Wells (113) posted better than average seasons by measure of ERA+, and only Bradish remains in the club’s rotation for the ALDS after Means was scratched from the roster due to elbow soreness and Wells moved to the bullpen late in the year.

Given this mediocre production from the rotation, it’s easy to think that the club’s decision this offseason to make only minor tweaks to the rotation, replacing Jordan Lyles with Gibson and trading for Irvin, was a major misstep. The reality of the situation is more complicated, however, as the Orioles are set up fairly well for success both in the postseason this year and looking ahead to 2024.

The primary reason for that is a simple one: the starting group in Baltimore improved significantly over the course of the season. Not only did the return of Means in September provide the club with a quality mid-rotation option who could return in later rounds of the postseason and figures to be a staple of the club’s 2024 rotation, but several players took steps forward in the second half. Each of Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer ranked in the top 20 among starters in ERA after the All Star break, with Bradish (2.34) and Rodriguez (2.58) both ranking in the top five. No other team in baseball had three starts as effective at run prevention during the second half, with only the Brewers (Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta) and Rangers (Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery) even having two.

The most obvious success story for the Orioles this year is Bradish, who the club acquired from the Angels in the deal that sent Dylan Bundy to Anaheim back in 2019. After a difficult rookie campaign that saw Bradish post a 4.80 ERA and 4.46 FIP in 23 starts, the right-hander’s sophomore season in 2023 has been a resounding success. Bradish has improved in virtually every aspect of his game this year, with improvements in strikeout rate (25% in 2023), walk rate (6.6%), groundball rate (49.2%), and barrel rate (6.9%). Taken together, those stronger peripherals have allowed Bradish to post a 2.83 ERA in 168 2/3 innings of work that’s surpassed only by Sonny Gray and Gerrit Cole among AL starters, with a 3.27 FIP that ranks fifth-best in the AL behind Gray, Cole, Zach Eflin and Kevin Gausman.

It’s nearly as easy to see the success of Rodriguez, who figures to start Game 2 of the ALDS against the Rangers this afternoon. After being promoted to the majors for his big league debut in early April, the 23-year-old hurler struggled badly in his first taste of big league action, with a 7.35 ERA and 5.90 FIP across his first ten starts in the big leagues. That prompted the Orioles to send Rodriguez back to Triple-A, where he very quickly found his footing with a microscopic 1.69 ERA across 37 1/3 innings of work. Upon his return to the majors in mid-July, Rodriguez looked like a completely different pitcher. In addition to his aforementioned 2.58 ERA across 13 second-half starts ranking fifth-best in the majors over that timeframe, Rodriguez also boasted a 2.76 FIP thanks to a 24% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate, and a whopping 52.7% groundball rate that paired with a 3.8% barrel rate to allow Rodriguez to suppress home runs in the second half better than any other starter in the majors.

Kremer is a somewhat different case, as the 2023 campaign has actually been something of a down year for him after he posted a 3.23 ERA and 3.80 FIP across 125 1/3 innings of work last year. The right-hander’s 2023 campaign has had the look of a solid back-of-the-rotation arm overall, with a 4.15 ERA that’s exactly league average by measure of ERA+ and a 4.51 FIP. That said, the second half of his 2023 campaign has lent credence to his 2022 numbers as he’s posted a 3.25 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 14 starts since the All Star break this year.

With Bradish, Rodriguez, and Kremer as the club’s top three options in the ALDS, the Orioles are in a recoverable position even after dropping Game 1 to the Rangers yesterday afternoon. What’s more, the club has a strong foundation for their rotation as they look ahead to the offseason and the 2024 campaign, as the aforementioned trio and Means are all under team control and figure to occupy rotation spots next year.

With four solid, average-or-better rotation arms locked in for 2024, the club is in a much stronger place than they were this time last year, when Kremer appeared to be the closest thing to a known commodity the Orioles had available after his first season as a regular starter. That should give GM Mike Elias and the club’s front office plenty of confidence in looking to add another arm to round out the club’s 2024 rotation this offseason on a free agent market that offers plenty of interesting options.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Guardians

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Finding a new manager is the first order of business for the Guardians, as Terry Francona is retiring after a Cooperstown-worthy managerial career.  The offseason’s first weeks will be dominated by news of the managerial search, but Cleveland will still face lingering questions about how to upgrade the lineup, and whether or not to trade Shane Bieber.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jose Ramirez, 3B: $105MM through 2028
  • Andres Gimenez, IF: $101.5MM through 2029 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $23MM club option for 2030)
  • Myles Straw, OF: $19.25MM through 2026 (includes $1.75MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have an $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout on Straw’s 2028 season)
  • Emmanuel Clase, RP: $15MM through 2026 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $10MM club option with $2MM buyout on Clase’s 2028 season)
  • Trevor Stephan, RP: $8.65MM through 2026 (includes $1.25MM buyout of $7.25MM club option for 2027; Guardians also have a $7.5MM club option with no buyout on Stephan’s 2028 season)

Other Financial Obligations

Total 2024 commitments: $41.1MM
Total future commitments: $259.9MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Francona’s final season unfortunately didn’t include any more postseason magic, as the Guardians finished with a 76-86 record — just the second losing record for Francona in his last 19 seasons as a manager.  Since the Twins didn’t pull away until later in the season, the relative weakness of the AL Central left the Guardians in an odd state of quasi-contention, resulting in an unusual slate of transactions in the second half.

The pre-deadline moves of Amed Rosario (to the Dodgers), Aaron Civale (to the Rays) and Josh Bell (to the Marlins) seemed like a borderline concession, yet with Cleveland still just two games behind Minnesota at the end of August, the Guards took advantage of the Angels’ semi-fire sale on the waiver wire to claim Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Matt Moore for the stretch run.  A 12-16 record in September and October finally did Cleveland in, and the real white flag was waived on September 19 when the Guardians themselves put Moore on waivers, and the southpaw was claimed away by the Marlins.

The sub.-500 record doesn’t mean the Guards will explore a rebuild, however.  The franchise’s state of more or less perpetual contention isn’t likely to end now that Francona is gone, as president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff still have plenty of talent on hand.  Superstar Jose Ramirez is still in his prime, and the Naylor brothers (Josh and Bo) now both look like impressive young hitters, with Bo performing well in his first extended taste of MLB action as the Guardians’ regular catcher.

However, the rest of the lineup was lacking.  The Guardians finished last among all teams in home runs, 29th of 30 in slugging percentage, and 27th in both OPS and runs scored.  It was another inconsistent offense that required the pitching staff to be great to have a hope of legitimately contending, so when a number of injuries reduced the staff to being just decent, the club suffered.

For some added salt in the lineup’s wound, outfielders Nolan Jones (Rockies) and Will Benson (Reds) ended up having breakout seasons after the Guardians respectively dealt the outfielders in offseason trades.  It’s hard to say if either Jones or Benson would’ve posted similar numbers if they’d have stayed in Cleveland, though that might speak to a separate issue of why the organization couldn’t unlock that potential itself.

More offense is clearly necessary, so where can the Guardians improve?  Ramirez and the Naylors have third base, first base, and catcher covered.  Andres Gimenez and Steven Kwan will hold everyday positions in 2024, even if perhaps not necessarily in their normal spots of second base and left field.  Getting Gimenez anywhere close to his 2022 numbers would be a boost unto itself for the Guardians, as after signing a seven-year, $106.5MM extension, he delivered only around league-average production this season.

If Gimenez isn’t moved across the middle infield, former top-100 prospects Gabriel Arias, Brayan Rocchio, and Tyler Freeman will all be competing for the shortstop job.  Arias is the favorite since he received most of the playing time in the latter stages of 2023, though none of the trio has hit much of anything during their (admittedly small) sample size of MLB playing time.  With these three, Jose Tena, Juan Brito, and more interesting middle-infield prospects down on the farm, Cleveland could again look to trade from this surplus for help at other positions.

This leaves the DH spot and the two non-Kwan outfield positions as the most obvious positions of need.  Kwan is one of the game’s best defensive left fielders, but if he can handle center field, Myles Straw could become a fourth outfielder and allow for the Guardians to put more pop into the corner slots.  Straw continues to be an excellent defender, but also one of the least-impactful hitters in baseball.  Among other in-house outfielders, Will Brennan didn’t hit much, Oscar Gonzalez hit even less and was relegated to Triple-A, and Ramon Laureano had about league-average production after being claimed from the A’s in August, but that’s probably not enough to avoid a non-tender.

First baseman Kyle Manzardo (acquired in the Civale trade) and top outfield prospects George Valera and Chase DeLauter should all be making their MLB debuts at some point in 2024, and the Guardians would love to see any of them have an immediate breakout.  In the interim, however, the Guards need bats now, thus opening the door for one or two veteran bats on short-term control.

After spending relatively big by their standards to sign Bell (two years, $33MM), and Mike Zunino (one year, $6MM), one wonders if the Guardians are willing to stretch the budget even that far into free agency.  The pickings are slim in general in this winter’s thin position-player market, and Cleveland’s choices are further limited by their modest payroll.  Furthering narrowing the field is the left-handed slant of the current Guardians lineup, so the team might prioritize right-handed or switch-hitters.

Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham, or a bounce-back candidate like Hunter Renfroe could fit.  If more lefty swingers are on the radar, maybe Joc Pederson or old friend Michael Brantley could fall within the Guards’ price range.  The Guardians figure to be one of many teams vying for Aaron Hicks since the Yankees are covering almost all of his salary over the next two seasons, but the rejuvenated Hicks might prefer to join a more clear-cut contender or just stay in Baltimore.  For first base/DH types that could share time with Josh Naylor, players like Rhys Hoskins, Garrett Cooper, or another former Cleveland staple in Carlos Santana could be considered.

Turning to the trade market, the Guardians’ enviable ability to keep developing quality big league starters can get them involved in several trade conversations, depending on how much pitching depth Cleveland is willing to sacrifice.  Making a blockbuster strike for, say, Juan Soto doesn’t fit Antonetti/Chernoff’s traditionally measured approach, but landing a quality bat with more team control is a possibility.  Teams like the Cardinals, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, or Nationals are all varying degrees of fits in pitcher-for-outfielder scenarios, and any number of clubs could further emerge since every team always needs pitching in a broad sense.

Could landing a veteran bat for Shane Bieber be feasible?  It would depart from the Guardians’ usual model of trying to get at least one big league-ready younger talent and a longer-term prospect when dealing one of its established veteran stars, yet Bieber’s trade stock has taken a bit of a dip.  Bieber is only arbitration-controlled through the 2024 season, and he has had two of his last three seasons shortened by injuries.  It seems possible that Cleveland might’ve dealt Bieber at the last trade deadline if he’d been healthy, rather than on the 60-day injured list due to elbow inflammation.

Though years of Bieber-related trade rumors seem to have led to this crescendo in the 2023-24 offseason, an argument can be made that the Guardians should also hold onto the right-hander until at least the trade deadline.  This past season has underlined the importance of rotation depth, with Bieber and Cal Quantrill each missing a good chunk of the season and Triston McKenzie limited to only 16 innings.  If Bieber was dealt, Cleveland would be left with a rotation of McKenzie and Quantrill looking for bounce-back years, and the outstanding but inexperienced rookie trio of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, and Logan Allen.  It’s still a solid group on paper, though more injuries or at least one sophomore slump could again leave the Guards scrambling, even if more young arms (headlined by Xzavion Curry) are waiting for their opportunity.

If Bieber was retained, the Guardians could explore moving Quantrill as an alternative, as Quantrill has two years of arbitration eligibility to Bieber’s one.  It would also be something of a sell-low situation given how shoulder problems limited Quantrill to 99 2/3 innings (with a 5.24 ERA) in 2023.  Bieber also has more front-of-the-rotation upside, whereas teams might have more questions about Quantrill’s low-strikeout, soft-contact approach, even he has produced very good results when healthy over the last four seasons.

The bullpen was around the middle of the pack last year, though any upgrades might be pretty low-key since Cleveland hasn’t traditionally made many splashes in adding relief pitching.  Bringing in another left-hander could be a priority, or just a veteran arm or two on a minor league contract.  As always, the bullpen could be a way for some MLB-ready future starters to get their feet wet against big league competition, like how Curry worked mostly as a reliever in 2023.

The bench might likewise not get a lot of focus, and if a couple of new outfield/DH types are indeed acquired, the bench mix could be somewhat set given the presence of Straw, Brennan, and the utility infielders.  Cam Gallagher’s lack of offense makes him a non-tender candidate, but since the Guardians have shown a propensity for all-glove/no-bat catchers, the team might retain him as Naylor’s backup.  If Gallagher is let go, utilityman David Fry might be considered for the role, if the Guards are okay having a backup catcher with more versatility than normal.

In some ways, 2023 paralleled Cleveland’s previous losing season in 2021, when several pitching injuries dropped the team to an 80-82 record.  With this in mind, better rotation health alone might be enough to get the Guards (as they did in 2022) right back into contention the following season, even if adding more hitting might be a cleaner path to consistent winning than continuing to rely so heavily on pitching and defense.  There is also the x-factor of whether or not the Guardians’ winning formula can continue without Francona skillfully balancing the dugout, as there’s naturally no way to entirely replace what the skipper brought to the organization.  Nobody expects the Guardians’ next manager to be the next Francona, but there’s plenty of pressure trying to both fill the shoes of a legend and try a team back into the playoff hunt.

Click here to read the transcript of the Guardians-centric Mark Polishuk held in conjunction with the Offseason Outlook

Projected Arbitration Salaries For 2024

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Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for 13 years.

In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.

As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.

While the service time figures included are official, there is not yet an established Super Two cutoff, which delineates which players with between two and three years of service qualify for early arbitration. That could lead to a few late entrants being added to the list. It’s also worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables; contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion (with “leave it,” in such instances, being a non-tender). That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.

If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription.  Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers received early access to these arbitration projections, and the subscription also includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our contract tracker, and our agency database.

The projections:

Angels (10)

Astros (7)

Athletics (6)

Blue Jays (13)

Braves (13)

Brewers (12)

Cardinals (10)

Cubs (9)

Diamondbacks (8)

Dodgers (13)

Giants (6)

Guardians (10)

Marlins (13)

Mariners (8)

Mets (17)

Nationals (8)

Orioles (16)

Padres (6)

Phillies (8)

Pirates (6)

Rangers (10)

Rays (16)

Red Sox (5)

Reds (10)

Rockies (7)

Royals (8)

Tigers (8)

Twins (9)

White Sox (8)

Yankees (17)

Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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The Giants disappointed for a second straight year, finishing below .500 after flirting with Wild Card contention into the season’s final month. They fired their manager and head into the offseason in need of star talent to elevate a roster that has been built on solid depth but lacked impact players beyond its ace.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments (if all player options exercised): $104MM
Total future commitments: $222MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

The Giants have been a league average team for two consecutive seasons. They’ve been unable to build off their surprising 107-win campaign of 2021. Pressure is building for the organization to figure things out.

They already made one major change. San Francisco fired manager Gabe Kapler during the final weekend of the regular season. It was a surprising alteration of course, as chairman Greg Johnson had said just two weeks ago that both Kapler and president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi would be retained.

Instead, the organization decided a change was necessary. That’s perhaps related to some clubhouse discontent. Ace Logan Webb took a shot at the franchise as the season was winding down, saying the club needed “big changes” to create a “winning mentality” in 2024. Webb didn’t publicly call for a managerial change, to be clear, but Zaidi acknowledged the organization needed “to rethink everything” shortly before Kapler was fired (relayed by Danny Emerman of KNBR).

A common complaint among fans and occasionally heard from players is that the Giants had become too matchup-dependent. They’ve been among the sport’s most aggressive teams in platooning hitters. They took a flexible approach to the pitching staff, generally patching things together with openers and bullpen games behind their top two starters of Webb and Alex Cobb.

All of that was true in 2021, when it worked to great effect. Every major league team deploys those strategies to varying degrees. Yet it’s possible that whomever the Giants tab to lead the team prioritizes more consistent roles for players than existed under Kapler. Zaidi said last week the team hoped to have a new manager in place by the start of the free agent period.

By the time free agency gets underway, San Francisco will have more clarity about its payroll picture. The Giants seem likely to exercise a $10MM option to retain Cobb, who turned in a 3.87 ERA over 28 appearances. The veteran righty is headed for a second opinion on a balky left hip (via Maria Guardado of MLB.com). Perhaps that examination reveals a more serious injury that leads the club to reconsider the option, but if he’s healthy, the $8MM difference between the option price and the buyout is strong value.

San Francisco has no control over the other three option decisions on the table. Ross Stripling, Sean Manaea and Michael Conforto all have player provisions. Stripling’s and Manaea’s are valued at $12.5MM, while Conforto would make $18MM. Stripling has already declared he’ll opt in after a down first season in the Bay Area. The other two players could at least consider opting out in search of multi-year agreements. Manaea, who turned in a quietly strong second half working mostly in multi-inning relief, seems likelier to hit the market than Conforto — particularly if he wants a guaranteed rotation spot.

They’d join a handful of other notable impending free agents. Brandon Crawford has been the starting shortstop for over a decade. Crawford won four Gold Gloves, was an integral part of the 2012 and ’14 World Series teams, and finished fourth in NL MVP balloting during a resurgent 2021 campaign. He had a stellar run in San Francisco and earned a well-deserved ovation from the fanbase on the final day of the season. He hasn’t hit much over the last two years, though, leading the organization to likely move on.

Zaidi said yesterday the club viewed 22-year-old Marco Luciano as the frontrunner for the shortstop job. It’s a risky play, as Luciano has all of 32 games of experience above the Double-A level. He struck out at a near-30% clip through 242 trips to the plate in Double-A this year. Luciano has obvious power potential and a patient plate approach, but he’s likely to strike out a lot in his initial crack at major league pitching.

That’s suboptimal for a team that hopes to compete next season, although it’s also a testament to the weakness of the middle infield market. Free agency doesn’t offer any everyday shortstop options. There aren’t any locks to be made available in trade. Perhaps a non-tender or declined option (like the White Sox with Tim Anderson) or a surprising trade possibility (e.g. Tommy Edman, Willy Adames) changes the calculus. For now, Luciano appears the in-house favorite.

There’s a little more stability around the rest of the infield. Thairo Estrada is a quality second baseman. J.D. Davis received mixed reviews from public metrics for his defensive work at third base. He’s a good hitter who’s under arbitration control for one more season. Perhaps the Giants could float him in trade offers with Wilmer Flores on hand as another righty-hitting corner infielder. Retaining Davis and keeping Flores at first base/designated hitter would also be a fine outcome. Lefty-hitting LaMonte Wade Jr. picked up the bulk of the first base reps as part of a platoon with Flores.

San Francisco could have an opening at designated hitter. Joc Pederson hits the market for the second straight year. The Giants made Pederson a $19.65MM qualifying offer last winter, which he accepted. He’s ineligible for the QO this time around and wouldn’t be in consideration for it anyway after his offensive production dipped. Pederson is a capable left-handed platoon option at DH, but it’s a rather limited profile that inhibits the team’s defensive flexibility.

Zaidi indicated yesterday that upgrading the defense was one of the club’s biggest goals (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). Only the Rockies and Royals, who play in two of the sport’s most spacious home parks, have seen a higher percentage of batted balls fall for hits over the last two seasons. Oracle Park’s dimensions are tough to patrol as well, though few would consider the past couple Giants teams as being among the league’s most athletic.

Letting Pederson walk could aid the defense by freeing a few more DH at-bats for Conforto (if he returns) and/or Mitch Haniger. That clears corner outfield at-bats for Mike Yastrzemski and Austin Slater. Rookies Tyler Fitzgerald and Luis Matos are options to assume more center field reps in that regard, though the Giants could certainly look for more offense there — especially if they’re already counting on Luciano as an unproven shortstop.

There are few more obvious fits than San Francisco for Cody Bellinger. The Giants showed interest in Bellinger after he was non-tendered by the Dodgers last winter. The former MVP signed with the Cubs, had the rebound year he’d been seeking, and now seems set to land a contract in the $200-250MM range in his return trip to the open market. Bellinger is an above-average defensive center fielder who dramatically cut his strikeout rate this season. He doesn’t have the same power he had before 2020 shoulder surgery, but he’s a well-rounded player and one of the few star hitters available in free agency.

It’s a similar position in which San Francisco found itself last winter. They have a fair bit of position player depth but lack an impact player capable of anchoring a lineup. The Giants tried for Aaron Judge, only to see him return to the Yankees. They agreed to terms with Carlos Correa before the physical led them to nix the agreement. By the time the Correa deal collapsed, all the other star players had signed elsewhere.

While it’s little consolation to the fanbase after another middling season, missing out on Correa and Judge leaves the Giants with ample long-term payroll flexibility. Their 2024 commitments are more than $100MM south of the base luxury tax threshold. They have just over $40MM on the books beyond next season. There’s plenty of room for a splash, whether that’s Bellinger … or perhaps the market’s top free agent.

San Francisco was among the seven reported finalists for Shohei Ohtani during his first trip to the free agency six years ago. That process wasn’t about money so much as pitching the organization to the two-way star, as his earning power was capped by the bonus pool system for international amateurs. There’s no such limit this time around. Ohtani will almost certainly set the all-time contract record. Teams will still have to pitch themselves as legitimate contenders, but they’ll also have to put hundreds of millions on the table.

The Giants’ reported proposal around $360MM for Judge and agreement with Correa on what would have been a $350MM deal offer proof of concept they’re willing to spend on top-of-the-market talent. Yet Ohtani could find himself in another stratosphere altogether. Whether San Francisco ownership is willing to keep pace with potential bids from the Dodgers, Mets, Rangers and others is to be determined. It’s a similar question if San Francisco can legitimately market itself as a perennial contender to the expected AL MVP.

There could be a fair bit of pressure on the front office to land one of Ohtani or Bellinger. They’re the clear top two in free agency. San Francisco could ostensibly trade Davis to accommodate a nine-figure deal for Matt Chapman, though he’s less clear of an offensive cornerstone for a lineup that needs one.

The Giants are set behind the plate. While Patrick Bailey struggled offensively towards the end of the season, the former #13 overall pick rated as an excellent defender and showed legitimate power upside in the first half of his rookie campaign. He’s the clear long-term catcher. Rule 5 draftee Blake Sabol played well enough to hold the backup job.

That doesn’t leave much room for one-time second overall pick Joey Bart. The righty-hitting catcher has been mentioned as a trade candidate for a few seasons. He has yet to establish himself as a big league caliber hitter. Bart was drafted by the previous front office regime — Bailey was selected by Zaidi’s front office — and will be out of minor league options next spring. He’ll have to be on the major league roster or made available to other teams. It makes sense to move him this offseason, even though the return would be limited at this point.

Perhaps a team like the Marlins or Yankees would offer a potential back-of-the-rotation arm for Bart. San Francisco will need to add stability to the back of the staff. Webb is a legitimate #1 starter. Cobb, if healthy, is a quality mid-rotation piece.

The rest of the group is unsettled. Manaea could opt out. Stripling spent most of 2023 in the bullpen. Alex Wood is a free agent. Anthony DeSclafani is under contract for one more season but posted a 4.88 ERA in 19 appearances and didn’t pitch from late July onward thanks to a flexor strain.

Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn reached the big leagues in 2023. The former is one of the sport’s most talented pitching prospects. He’s likely to hold a season-opening rotation spot after a promising debut in which he turned in a 4.15 ERA with solid strikeout and walk marks through his first seven starts. Winn had decent results in a hitter-friendly Triple-A environment and seems likely to start next season in a depth role.

Between DeSclafani’s elbow and the risk of any rookie (even one as talented as Harrison), the Giants need more rotation stability. That’d only become more pressing if Cobb is seriously injured. San Francisco has shied away from long-term free agent investments in starting pitching. Under Zaidi, they’ve targeted reclamation plays like DeSclafani, Kevin Gausman and Manaea. They took on some injury uncertainty with Carlos Rodón but limited that to a two-year, $44MM guarantee. After Gausman and Rodón had excellent seasons that put them in the nine-figure range, San Francisco moved on. While they signed Webb to a five-year contract extension, that’s quite a bit different than signing a top-of-the-market starter in free agency.

San Francisco may have to aim higher this offseason. Blake Snell and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are the best starters available beyond Ohtani, who won’t pitch until 2025. Aaron Nola and Jordan Montgomery should exceed the $110MM that Gausman received from the Blue Jays a couple years back. Sonny Gray might not be far off that mark.

The Giants could ostensibly make a run at Bellinger and one of those starters. San Francisco had an Opening Day player payroll around $187MM this past season, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. They’ve topped $200MM in the past. They’d have only $112MM in guaranteed commitments for next year if all of Conforto, Stripling and Manaea opt in and they retain Cobb.

A strong arbitration class could tack on another $30MM, but that still leaves around $40MM in spending room. A trade of an arbitration-eligible player like Davis or Yastrzemski and/or an opt-out from Manaea would make two large free agent pickups realistic even if the organization kept payroll around this year’s level. If they chose to stick with their traditional tack of shorter-term rotation adds, the likes of Kenta Maeda, Seth Lugo and Michael Lorenzen could offer some stability. Frankie Montas or Luis Severino would be traditional Giants-style reclamation adds.

They’ll likely need to add bullpen depth as well. Jakob Junis, John Brebbia and Scott Alexander are all headed to free agency. While none of that trio is a household name, they turned in a combined 172 2/3 innings of 4.12 ERA ball this past season. That’s acceptable middle relief volume that’ll need to be replaced.

The Giants have Camilo Doval in the ninth inning. Submariner Tyler Rogers is an effective setup option. Last winter’s signees Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson were fine in year one. The Giants have high-leverage options but could identify a middle relief target or two on a short-term free agent deal.

There are a lot of ways in which the offseason could go. Zaidi confirmed this week that he’s in the final season of his contract as he enters his sixth year leading baseball operations. There’s clearly increasing urgency to secure a star player and, more importantly, push a fine but unexceptional roster back to playoff contention. The first order of business is finding a new manager. Once the winter rolls around, the goal should be to add a franchise player.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Giants-centric chat on 10-04-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live White Sox-centric chat on Wednesday at 11am central time. Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

New White Sox GM Chris Getz will have to be a miracle worker to turn this 61-win team into a 2024 contender, as the team severely lacks both talent and depth.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yoan Moncada, 3B: $29MM through 2024.  Includes $25MM club option ($5MM buyout) for 2025
  • Eloy Jimenez, DH: $16MM through 2024.  Includes $16.5MM club option for 2025 ($3MM buyout) and $18.5MM club option for 2026 ($3MM buyout)
  • Luis Robert, CF: $29.5MM through 2025.  Includes $20MM club option for 2026 ($2MM buyout) and $20MM club option for 2027 ($2MM buyout)
  • Andrew Benintendi, LF: $64MM through 2027
  • Aaron Bummer, RP: $6.75MM through 2024.  Includes $7.25MM club option with 2025 ($1.25MM buyout) and $7.5MM club option for 2026 ($1.25MM buyout)

Option Decisions

  • Liam Hendriks, RP: $15MM club option with a $15MM buyout.  If declined, buyout is paid in 10 annual installments of $1.5M from 2024-33
  • Tim Anderson, SS: $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout
  • Mike Clevinger, SP: $12MM mutual option with a $4MM buyout

2024 commitments: $84.5MM
Total future commitments: $165.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parantheses; salary projections via Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

“If I had brought somebody in from the outside, just to repeat, it would have taken a year. I could’ve brought Branch Rickey back, and it would’ve taken him a year to evaluate the organization. So even though I had a list of outside people who I felt could do the job, I also had a list of one among the inside people who I felt could do the job as well as anybody I was going to interview. I didn’t have to interview these people, because I knew them all. And I knew that they were qualified but what I did know is that I had somebody inside who could start right away making things happen, and that’s the reason why Chris was selected.”

That’s White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf, making rare public comments about a month ago in introducing new GM Chris Getz.  The ever-loyal Reinsdorf had fired team president Kenny Williams and GM Rick Hahn about a week prior.  Williams had become GM in 2001, moving above that position when Hahn became GM in 2012.  That quote from Reinsdorf tells you all you need to know about the GM hiring process that led to Getz.  Getz’s early front office hires include Brian Bannister, Josh Barfield, and Gene Watson.

Getz spent seven seasons as an MLB player, mostly for the White Sox and Royals, before taking on a player development role with Kansas City.   He then spent seven seasons in charge of minor league operations and player development for the White Sox, picking up an assistant GM title along the way.

To be frank, it’s not clear what specific skills or successes made Getz qualified to be the GM of the White Sox in Reinsdorf’s eyes.  Negatives include the Omar Vizquel-Wes Helms situation, and a generally poor record of White Sox minor leaguers meeting or exceeding expectations.  Getz kicked off his tenure by committing to manager Pedro Grifol for next year, despite the club’s massively disappointing 61-101 record and several examples of clubhouse problems.  Reliever Keynan Middleton, for example, spoke of “no rules or guidelines to follow,” later backed up by Lance Lynn.

From ownership to GM to manager, there is little to inspire confidence in the quick White Sox resurgence of which Reinsdorf spoke.  However, we are mainly here to discuss how Getz might address the team’s many shortcomings in his first offseason.  Reinsdorf said, “We want to get better as fast as we possibly can,” so we’ll take him at his word even though the Sox would need a lot to compete in 2024.  This post also takes under consideration that the White Sox have never paid the competitive balance tax, have never committed more than $75MM to a player, and have never paid a player $20MM per year.

Most of the team’s current catching depth was added by Hahn in a three-day span in late July, as a Kendall Graveman trade brought Korey Lee from the Astros and Edgar Quero was the key return in shipping Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez to the Angels.  MLB catchers averaged a 90 wRC+ this year as hitters, and neither the defensively-minded Lee nor the bat-first Quero seems capable of that in 2024.  A veteran backstop in the Victor Caratini/Tom Murphy mold would make sense here.

Andrew Vaughn, 26 in April, was used at first base this year after being previously miscast as a corner outfielder based on the team’s needs.  But the bar for offense is higher at first base, and Vaughn’s wRC+ dropped from 113 to 103 this year.  A replacement level first baseman is hardly a win for the club, but the other holes seem more pressing so Vaughn’s job is likely secure.

In particular, the White Sox don’t have much going on in the middle infield for 2024.  They ran through Elvis Andrus, Lenyn Sosa, Zach Remillard, and Romy Gonzalez at second base this year.  The result was some of the worst production in baseball at the position.  Prospect Jose Rodriguez, who spent most of the year at Double-A, reached the majors this year and will be an option.  Adam Frazier could represent an affordable veteran free agent pickup, though for a team that seems oddly obsessed with the Royals, Whit Merrifield may be tempting to the front office.  On the trade market, Jonathan India, Gleyber Torres, or Brandon Drury could be available.

Top prospect Colson Montgomery had his season debut delayed until mid-June with oblique and back injuries but acquitted himself well at High-A and Double-A.  His likely MLB debut next year will be a bright spot for White Sox fans, and hopefully he’ll have shortstop locked up for the foreseeable future.

The White Sox hold a $14MM club option with a $1MM buyout on longtime shortstop Tim Anderson.  Anderson sounds willing to play some second base, and could serve as a bridge to Montgomery next year.  But given an abysmal 60 wRC+ this year, a lengthy injury history, and a complicated legacy, Anderson does not make sense at his option price.  The loyal-to-a-fault White Sox could bring him back at a lower rate, but moving on entirely might be helpful in rebooting the clubhouse.  A shortstop-capable addition such as Amed Rosario could be helpful in keeping the seat warm for Montgomery and adding middle infield depth.

With Hahn having shipped off Jake Burger to the Marlins, Yoan Moncada remains the primary option at third base for the White Sox.  Moncada, 29 in May, offered a glimmer of promise with a 125 wRC+ over the final two months, though that included striking out a third of the time.  There’s too much money owed to Moncada to trade him in anything other than a bad contract swap.  If Getz is able to find a way out of Moncada’s contract via trade, he could turn to free agency to fill the void.  If Jeimer Candelario isn’t in the team’s price range, perhaps Gio Urshela could be.  Perhaps more likely, the Sox will look to promote prospect Bryan Ramos early in the season after a solid year at Double-A.

Eloy Jimenez had one of his healthiest seasons in a years, but also slipped to a 105 wRC+ mostly out of the DH spot.  Getz hasn’t said much to indicate his offseason plans, but his mention of getting more athletic has led some to speculate that Jimenez could be on the trading block.  With DH being a relatively easy spot to fill, trading Jimenez for pitching could help with the team’s threadbare rotation.  Jimenez will turn 27 in November and has club options for 2025 and ’26, and perhaps Getz can find a club enticed by his solid Statcast marks and 2020/2022 levels of offense.

Left field is a bit like first base for the White Sox: it’s hard to be happy with Andrew Benintendi’s replacement-level work out there this year, but the team has bigger fish to fry.  Benintendi, signed through 2027, dropped to a career-worst 87 wRC+ at the plate and also alarmingly struggled defensively.  There’s not much to do here beyond putting in offseason work for a hopeful bounceback.

Center fielder Luis Robert is the best reason to watch the 2024 White Sox.  The 26-year-old managed to stay healthy this year with 145 games played, putting up 38 home runs and a 128 wRC+ with strong center field defense.  Robert’s 5-WAR potential was finally realized in 2023, and the Sox have him under control through 2027.

Right field, on the other hand, continues to befuddle the White Sox.  The team mostly turned to Oscar Colas and Gavin Sheets this year, to disastrous results.  Despite coming off a down year, a free agent like Teoscar Hernandez might require topping the largest contract in White Sox history (currently Benintendi’s $75MM).  Even a bargain bin Hunter Renfroe or Chicago return for Jason Heyward would be an upgrade over what the Sox had in ’23.  Given the way Merrifield’s defensive homes match up with the club’s biggest needs at second base and right field and the team’s attraction toward Royals connections, is there any way this match doesn’t happen?

We’ve established that the White Sox have four major holes position-wise, even if we pencil in their mostly-questionable incumbents.  You might already be covering your eyes, but we have to talk about the rotation.

Dylan Cease offered up roughly similar strikeout, walk, and groundball rates as last year, but his ERA ballooned from 2.20 to 4.58.  Hot take: it’ll land between those figures next year.  The bigger question is whether Cease should be traded with two years of control remaining, which most teams would be taking a hard look at given the lack of talent on hand.  But again, Reinsdorf says he’s seeking a quick turnaround (that’s why he didn’t interview any GM candidates other than Getz), in which case the team pretty much has to keep Cease.

Michael Kopech struggled as a starter this season, moving to the bullpen for a few September outings before succumbing to knee surgery. Grifol has already stated Kopech will be viewed as a starter next year.  Once Kopech recovers from surgery (a 6-8 week timeline), new hire Brian Bannister will get to work on turning his career around.  Presumably pitching coach Ethan Katz will be involved as well.

Former prospect Touki Toussaint picked up 15 starts for the White Sox this year, but he displayed the control problems so prevalent in their rotation.  Jesse Scholtens made 11 starts, most of which went poorly after a nice three-start run.  Lance Lynn and Lucas Giolito were traded, while Mike Clevinger is set for free agency.

Clevinger, 33 in December, will likely seek a two-year deal after posting a 3.77 ERA in 24 starts.  Clevinger’s subpar strikeout and groundball rates don’t support that ERA, but it’s possible the White Sox bring him back.  The White Sox should add at least three credible starters this winter if they’re looking to contend in 2024.

Assuming the White Sox will not play at the top of the market means ruling out Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Aaron Nola.  Sonny Gray, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Shota Imanaga are potentially out of their price range as well.  Aside from Clevinger, free agents such as Seth Lugo, Kenta Maeda, Michael Wacha, and Michael Lorenzen seem possible here.  The club could also take on injury or bounceback cases like Frankie Montas, Kyle Gibson, Jack Flaherty, James Paxton, or Luis Severino.  Guaranteed Rate Field is not viewed as a pitcher’s park, so the Sox may have to pay extra to land any somewhat-desirable free agent.

It’s a bit early to predict the trade market, as few if any teams both hold quality starting pitching and have committed to rebuilding for 2024.  Starting pitchers were rarely traded last offseason, beyond Pablo Lopez.

Getz knows the farm system well (a key reason he was hired), so it’s safe to assume he’s got internal candidates for the 2024 rotation.  The White Sox do not have any major Double or Triple-A successes knocking on the door for next year’s rotation, however.  One sleeper could be former first rounder Garrett Crochet, who is is currently healthy after missing most of the season due to April 2022 Tommy John surgery and a subsequent shoulder strain.

The White Sox have an interesting decision to make in the bullpen.  When Hahn devised Liam Hendriks’s odd club option for 2024 – $15MM with a $15MM buyout – the pitcher being out for the season was the only possible reason.  If the option is declined, that $15MM is paid out in 10 annual installments from 2024-33.  Financially, that’s preferable to picking it up paying it out throughout 2024 for a guy who won’t pitch next season due to recent Tommy John surgery.  So barring a fresh contract with the White Sox, Hendriks is likely to become a free agent.  He seems likely to land a two-year deal with an eye on 2025, so both parties will have to decide whether to pursue that.

The White Sox shed most of their veteran relievers in midseason trades, and holdover Bryan Shaw is a free agent.  In terms of relievers the Sox used in high-leverage situations this year, they’re mostly left with Aaron Bummer and Gregory Santos.  Bummer, who posted a 6.79 ERA, is under contract through next year.  Santos showed promise, and Crochet will be in the bullpen if he’s not used as a starter.

One of Hahn’s faults as GM was using too much of his limited budget on the bullpen, but Getz should probably add veteran relief help this winter.  Under the previous regime, the Sox went especially big on the David Robertson (2014-15 offseason) and Hendriks (2020-21) contracts.  But with so many needs to fill, it seems unlikely the team springs for a record Josh Hader deal.  The club could otherwise consider bringing Reynaldo Lopez back, or explore the remainder of the top of the market for Robert Stephenson, Joe Jimenez, or Jordan Hicks.  Aside from those players, we don’t see too many relievers getting three-plus years.

At the least, a competent 2024 White Sox team would seem to need a catcher, second baseman, right fielder, three starting pitchers, and multiple relievers.  They’d need Robert to stay healthy again and most of the other holdovers to improve upon 2023.  As daunting as that sounds, the White Sox could reasonably add around $75MM in 2024 money without increasing their payroll.  If Getz is given that level of spending power, he’ll at least have the chance to remake the team in his image over the winter.

Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds

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The Reds made a surprising playoff push just one year removed from a 100-loss season. While they came up short in the final weekend, the influx of young talent reintroduced a jolt of excitement to the organization. They’re no longer upstarts. To take the next step, they’ll need to address the pitching staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Hunter Greene, RHP: $50MM through 2028 (including buyout of ’29 club option)

Option Decisions

  • Team holds $20MM option on 1B Joey Votto ($7MM buyout)
  • $4MM mutual option between team and C Curt Casali ($750K buyout)

Additional Financial Commitments

2024 financial commitments: $16.25MM
Total future commitments: $63.25MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-tender candidates: Senzel, Law, Dunn, Gutierrez

Free Agents

Few outside the Cincinnati organization expected the Reds to hang in the playoff mix all season. They made a rapid jump from clear rebuilder to potential Wild Card team as they graduated a number of talented young players, largely on the position player side.

There’s more reason for optimism than there has been entering each of the previous two offseasons. Ownership is clearly happy with the organizational direction. The Reds signed manager David Bell to a three-year extension in July. Last week, they promoted front office head Nick Krall from GM to president of baseball operations in conjunction with an extension of undisclosed length. Brad Meador received the general manager title, solidifying him as the #2 executive.

The focus now turns to the roster. Cincinnati’s first offseason decision is a straightforward one, though it could mark the symbolic end of a previous era in franchise history. The guaranteed portion of Joey Votto’s 10-year, $225MM extension has wrapped up. The Reds will obviously opt for a $7MM buyout in lieu of a $20MM club option, sending Votto to the open market for the first time in his career. The $13MM price point is beyond what a 40-year-old first baseman coming off a second straight middling offensive season could find in free agency.

Votto, of course, has constructed a strong Hall of Fame case during his 17 years in Cincinnati. He won the 2010 NL MVP and finished in the top three in balloting on two more occasions. He’s a career .294/.409/.511 hitter who ranks 93rd in major league history having reached base 3581 times, the highest mark for any active player. Votto is one of the greatest players in franchise history and among the most productive first basemen ever.

It’s not a guarantee that Votto’s time in Cincinnati is complete. The six-time All-Star has thus far been noncommittal about whether he’ll continue his playing career. After Sunday’s season finale, he told the beat he “just (doesn’t) have an answer yet” about his future (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The Reds could certainly look to bring him back on a cheaper one-year pact if he wants to return for an 18th season.

While Votto is a franchise icon, the Reds aren’t facing the loss of much 2023 on-field production from any of their impending free agents. They’ll decline their end of a $4MM mutual option on backup catcher Curt Casali. Third backstop Luke Maile heads back to the open market, though the Northern Kentucky native would probably be open to another cheap one-year pact to stick with the Reds if they wanted to keep him as the #2 catcher.

Cincinnati got surprisingly little from that position this past season. Tyler Stephenson entered the year as one of the game’s most promising young catchers. The Reds hoped that more time divided between catching and designated hitter would keep him healthy after a series of fluke injuries impacted his ’22 campaign. That proved to be the case, but Stephenson didn’t hit well. Over a career-high 517 plate appearances, he managed only a .242/.317/.378 line — well off the .296/.369/.454 pace he carried into the year.

He hit the ball reasonably hard, although his grounder rate spiked dramatically in the second half. Stephenson was one of the few controllable position players who underperformed expectations. Given his pre-2023 track record and a weak free agent catching class, the Reds probably give him another chance as the #1 option. They’ll need to sign at least one backup, whether Maile or a similar player.

Cincinnati is unlikely to make many additions on the infield dirt. They have a deep collection of young talent. Spencer Steer can play any of the corner spots on the diamond and saw limited action at second base. He is not a great defender anywhere but hit his way into the lineup across multiple positions. It’s a similar story with Christian Encarnacion-Strand, another rookie corner infielder who joined the Reds in the lopsided Tyler Mahle trade with Minnesota.

Steer is the more complete hitter at this point, while Encarnacion-Strand covered for middling plate discipline with plus power. They both managed above-average results in their first extended looks at big league arms — Steer had struggled in a cup of coffee on the 2022 team — and look like potential middle-of-the-order bats from the right side. Encarnacion-Strand saw the bulk of his time at first base and DH down the stretch.

That’s in part because he isn’t a great third base defender, though it also hints at the amount of up-the-middle talent the Reds possess. Matt McLain had arguably the best rookie campaign of any Cincinnati player, hitting .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers in 89 games before a season-ending oblique injury. He seized the primary shortstop job. That pushed Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte — both of whom came up primarily as shortstop prospects — to the hot corner.

Marte also raked in a 35-game sample after his promotion in late August. The results were mixed on De La Cruz, who showed the tantalizing physical gifts that made him an arguable top five prospect but also the concerning plate discipline profile that left some evaluators cautious.

De La Cruz concluded his rookie year with a .235/.300/.410 slash through 427 trips. He hit 13 home runs, stole 35 bases and showed top-of-the-scale arm strength with regularity. Yet his overall defensive ratings were mixed and he struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances. After a scorching start, he had a rough second half. It was still an impressive showing for a 21-year-old at the major league level. There’s star potential for anyone with this combination of raw power, speed and arm talent — particularly with a switch-hitter who can play on the left side of the infield. De La Cruz’s consistency was behind that of most of his rookie teammates, though.

It’s hard to imagine the Reds starting De La Cruz back in Triple-A to begin next season. They’ll need a spot for McLain, however, and Marte certainly didn’t play his way down. There’s also an incentive for the Reds to carry Marte, who retains his rookie eligibility, on next year’s Opening Day roster. If they carry him for a full service year and he wins Rookie of the Year, they’d receive an extra draft choice via the Prospect Promotion Incentive.

That surplus is before getting to the player who was Cincinnati’s best position player not too long ago: second baseman Jonathan India. The 2021 Rookie of the Year hit .244/.338/.407 in 529 trips to the plate. That’s league average production, his second straight season in that range. While India started the season strong, his offense dipped by June. He lost a good portion of the second half battling plantar fasciitis in his left foot.

India consistently receives below-average grades from public metrics for his second base defense. It’s a bat-first profile and he hasn’t hit especially well since his debut campaign. There’s an argument he should be the odd one out of the very talented infield. His name surfaced in a trade rumor around the deadline, though subsequent reports quickly shot down the likelihood of Cincinnati moving him.

While the 26-year-old again stands as an on-paper trade candidate, there’s no guarantee the Reds will seriously consider offers. India is one of the more experienced players on a very young roster and multiple Cincinnati players have suggested he’s a key figure in the clubhouse. India conceded he was affected by the speculation he’d be dealt around the deadline, even taking a game off for a mental reset. The Reds may not want to move him, especially since his trade value is at its lowest ebb during his major league career. Between his defensive grades and middling offense over the final few months, India isn’t likely to bring back an above-average starting pitcher with multiple years of club control — even in a down free agent infield class.

Former #2 overall pick Nick Senzel opened the season at third base after struggling in center field in prior years. He started the year strong, at least against left-handed pitching, but his bat tailed off in the second half. Cincinnati sent him down for a couple weeks in August. While he finished the season on the big league roster, there’s a good chance he’s traded for a minimal return or simply non-tendered.

If the Reds hold the rest of their infielders, that could push Steer into the corner outfield. He’d likely play left field on most days. Will Benson and Jake Fraley each had strong results as left-handed hitting corner outfielders. The Reds shielded both players from left-handed pitching. Even with Steer seeing outfield reps, there’s room for a right-handed platoon bat.

Cincinnati brought in Hunter Renfroe and Harrison Bader off waivers as stopgaps in late August. Renfroe was quickly released, while Bader seems likely to sign with a team that can offer everyday center field reps. Someone like Robbie Grossman or Aaron Hicks — both switch-hitters who are better against lefty pitching — could make sense to fill that role. Grossman is likely to sign a one-year deal worth a few million dollars. Hicks is available to every club at the league minimum salary after being released by the Yankees, so his camp will sort through a number of offers at the same price in search of the ideal team fit.

TJ Friedl doesn’t receive the same amount of attention as his younger teammates, but he played at an All-Star level (.279/.352/.467 with 18 homers) in center field this year. He’s an excellent contact hitter with plus speed and solid defense. Friedl is somewhat quietly a very valuable player, one whom Bell can comfortably plug into a top-two spot in the lineup as a table-setter.

At age 28 and under club control for five more seasons, Friedl is unlikely to be an extension candidate. The Reds could have interest in trying to get a deal done with one or more of their early-mid 20s hitters. Steer is under control for five seasons. De La Cruz, McLain, Marte and Encarnacion-Strand are all controllable for six more years. Extensions for players with less than one year of MLB service are rare but not unheard of.

Ronald Acuña, Wander Franco and Corbin Carroll all signed nine-figure pacts before their first full year in the big leagues. Eloy Jiménez and Luis Robert signed in the $50MM range before making their MLB debuts. The Reds don’t have anyone who’s yet established at the Acuña, Franco or Carroll level. Those players were all consensus top five prospects who’d found immediate MLB success. Something around Robert’s $50MM could be a reasonable proposal to De La Cruz or Marte if the Reds are interested in buying out two or three free agent seasons. McLain might be a trickier player to value, since he had more initial success than De La Cruz but wasn’t as highly-regarded as a prospect, but he’s also a potential candidate. Willingness to sign an early-career extension varies by player. It’s at least something the front office could consider.

It’s a little less stable on the pitching staff. They signed Hunter Greene to a $50MM guarantee in April. That’s their only contractual commitment outside of option buyouts, leaving open the possibility for more long-term deals. Something in the $50MM range also made sense for southpaw Nick Lodolo preseason. He’s coming off a year derailed by left shin injuries, so the Reds will probably wait on a long-term pact until he’s back on the mound.

24-year-old Andrew Abbott put himself in the conversation alongside Greene and Lodolo as potential rotation cornerstones. The 6’0″ southpaw turned in a 3.87 ERA through his first 21 major league starts, striking out 26.1% of opponents in the process. It’s a little early to consider Abbott an extension candidate — teams tend to wait on starting pitchers until they have a year-plus of service time — but he is clearly in the ’24 rotation and could be the Opening Day starter.

Adding a mid-rotation veteran should be the front office’s main priority. Greene and Lodolo battled injuries and inconsistency. Abbott set a career mark with 163 1/3 innings between the minors and big leagues this summer. Graham Ashcraft eats innings but had an up-and-down season. While Brandon Williamson found his stride nicely in the second half of his rookie campaign, his minor league track record is mixed. Journeyman Ben Lively faded after a nice start. Prospect Connor Phillips has huge stuff and whiff rates but control woes that lead some evaluators to point to a possible bullpen future.

The Reds can’t go into next year counting on each of Abbott, Greene, Lodolo, Ashcraft and Williamson to hold a spot all season. They’ll need more depth than they had this year, when they gave Luke Weaver 21 starts and turned to Lively and Luis Cessa a combined 18 times.

Cincinnati has spent less than $15MM in free agency in each of the last two offseasons. There’s no reason for that to continue given the clean payroll outlook. The contracts for Votto and Mike Moustakas are off the books aside from option buyouts. They have just over $16MM in 2024 commitments at present. It’s a solid but hardly overwhelming group of arbitration-eligible players.

The Reds aren’t going to make a play for Blake Snell or NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It’s difficult to project them as a candidate to top $100MM on Jordan Montgomery and Aaron Nola given their spending habits. Yet they’ve shown a willingness to go into the middle tier of the free agent market in prior offseasons, guaranteeing $64MM each to Moustakas and Nick Castellanos.

Old friend Sonny Gray will probably stretch beyond that number and cost a draft choice after rejecting a qualifying offer. Eduardo Rodriguez cannot receive the QO and could be available on a four-year pact in the $70-80MM range if he opts out of his deal with the Tigers. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are possibilities on a two or three-year deal.

Cincinnati could add a starter in free agency while also looking to the trade market. India could return a back-end type, even if he’s unlikely to get the ball rolling for someone like Dylan Cease or Logan Gilbert. Dealing any of McLain, Steer, Encarnacion-Strand, Marte or De La Cruz ranges from unlikely to ’not happening,’ but they’d all have ample trade appeal. Perhaps the major league infield depth frees them to explore possibilities involving prospects Edwin Arroyo or Cam Collier for controllable rotation help.

They’ll also likely add in the bullpen. Cincinnati has a few solid arms but it’s a roughly average relief group overall. It’s anchored by All-Star closer Alexis Díaz. Deadline pickup Sam Moll is a good ground-ball lefty. Low-cost additions of Alex Young and Ian Gibaut have added middle relief depth. Fernando Cruz, Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone can all miss bats at a high level, although Cruz and Sims have scattershot command and Antone has battled forearm problems. Buck Farmer, who was second on the team with 75 relief innings, is headed to free agency.

Cincinnati won’t be in on Josh Hader, but they have the financial room to play in the lower to middle tiers. Jordan Hicks, Joe Jiménez, old friend Robert Stephenson and Pierce Johnson are all likely to land multi-year deals. Players like Ryne Stanek or Keynan Middleton could be available as one or cheaper two-year fliers.

Given the young talent on the roster and the payroll space, there’s more opportunity for the front office to add than has existed in quite some time. It’s an exciting time for Reds’ fans again. They were ahead of schedule in 2023 and came up a little bit short of the postseason. Next year’s team should have legitimate playoff aspirations from day one. It’s up to the front office to add the pitching necessary to make that happen.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Reds-centric chat on 10-04-23. Click here to view the transcript.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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The A’s spent the 2023 season more focused on relocating from Oakland to Las Vegas than on attempting to compete. They’ll finish with one of the six worst records of any team in the past 20 seasons. It’ll be another bleak offseason for a fan base that feels betrayed by ownership and has little to look forward to before the team’s likely departure.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Other Financial Commitments

Total 2024 commitments: $10MM

Total long-term commitments: $10MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Non-Tender Candidates: Newcomb, Pruitt, Perez, Rios

Free Agents

Just as A’s brass has spent much of the past year focused on their attempted relocation to Las Vegas, the forthcoming offseason will further center around that move. The other 29 owners will vote on the Athletics’ move to Vegas between Nov. 14-16 — a vote that needs 75% approval and is widely expected to pass with little to no issue. The A’s will then turn their attention to securing funding, formalizing vendor contracts and other steps necessary to begin construction of their reported Las Vegas ballpark, with an eye toward finalizing the move in 2027. The A’s could share Oracle Park with the Giants from 2025 until the new facility is built. At this point, ownership is intent on moving away from the team’s longtime home. Any fans clinging to hope of some kind of sale of the team and reversal of course had those hopes dashed last month when chairman John Fisher plainly indicated he has no interest in selling the club.

All the while, the on-field product has suffered. The Athletics have been “rebuilding” for the past two years, though there’s virtually no Major League talent that’s been established despite trading away the core of a team that won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019, won the AL West in the shortened 2020 season (36-24) and won 86 games in 2021.

Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Frankie Montas, Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Sean Murphy, Lou Trivino, A.J. Puk, Cole Irvin and Sam Moll have all been traded. The only fruits of those trades to blossom at the MLB level so far have been lefty JP Sears (4.54 ERA in a team-leading 172 1/3 innings this season) and outfielder Esteury Ruiz, who lead the AL with 67 steals but batted just .254/.309/.345. Catcher Shea Langeliers popped 22 home runs and played strong defense in his first full MLB season, but his overall .205/.368/.413 batting line was well shy of even the league average. Arguably the best player to come out of the rebuild has been first baseman Ryan Noda, whom the A’s selected in last December’s Rule 5 Draft.

Had the A’s focused solely on lower-minors talent as part of this rebuilding effort, perhaps the lack of MLB contributors would be explainable. That hasn’t been the case. The A’s have largely targeted players in the upper minors. That strategy has worked for them in the past, but the collection of Kyle Muller, Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, Cristian Pache, Joey Estes, Kevin Smith, Adam Oller, Adrian Martinez, Zach Logue and Kirby Snead has generally struggled in the Majors. Pache, Oller and Logue aren’t even in the organization anymore. Pache was traded to the Phillies for minor league reliever Billy Sullivan, who walked 52 hitters in 57 1/3 Triple-A innings this year. Oller and Logue were lost on waivers after being designated for assignment.

The A’s have four players on Baseball America’s top 100 list at the moment, but none of the four were acquired from the slate of trades that constitute the current rebuild. Darell Hernaiz, acquired from the Orioles for Irvin and ranked ninth among Oakland prospects at both Baseball America and MLB.com, is the top-ranked yet-to-debut talent produced by the rebuild. BA ranked Oakland’s farm system 24th among the sport’s 30 teams in mid-August. MLB.com ranked them 26th. For a team that’s torn down an entire perennial contender via a series of aggressive trades netting largely upper-level minor league talent, the results should be unacceptable.

Some of the fire sale continued on over the summer, with Moll going to the Reds and offseason signees Shintaro Fujinami (Orioles) and Jace Peterson (D-backs) also being shipped out. Had Oakland’s other offseason veteran pickups — Trevor May (free agent), Aledmys Diaz (free agent), Jesus Aguilar (free agent) and Manny Pina (Murphy trade) — performed better, they’d surely have been shipped out, too. Things didn’t play out that way. Aguilar and Pina were both released over the summer. Diaz had the worst season of his career and is signed through 2024. May rebounded after spending time on the IL with anxiety early in the year but is now a free agent.

The long-running sale could continue this winter. However, because the A’s haven’t developed much talent or signed anyone who’s been particularly productive, they’re running low on names to dangle.

Right-hander Paul Blackburn posted a mid-4.00s ERA but with a more frequently used slider and uptick in velocity that helped him turn in a career-high strikeout rate. With two years of club control remaining and an arbitration trade looming, there’s a very good chance he’ll be moved, even if the return won’t be franchise-altering. First baseman/outfielder Seth Brown had a terrible first half but posted a more respectable .235/.301/.432 slash from July onward. Brown swatted 25 homers with the ’22 A’s and has shown good power against right-handed pitching in his career (.237/.305/.471, .234 ISO). A team looking for an affordable lefty half of a first base/outfield platoon could show interest. Again, the return wouldn’t be all that strong.

Aside from that pairing, there aren’t many obvious trade candidates. Brent Rooker, 29 in November, had a breakout year after being picked up off waivers, though it was a wildly uneven season overall. He was one of the best hitters on the planet in April, excellent in July and September, roughly average in August, and well below average in both May and June. On the whole, he hit .246/.329/.488 with 30 home runs but a 32.7% strikeout rate and shaky defense in the outfield corners. A 30-homer bat with four years of club control remaining could draw interest though, and the A’s aren’t in position to turn away interest on anyone who’s exhausted multiple years of team control.

With virtually nothing in the way of established talent on the roster, it should come as no surprise to hear that the Athletics’ payroll is practically blank. Diaz’s $8MM salary is the only guaranteed contract for a player still on the roster. The A’s will also send $2MM to the D-backs as part of the Peterson trade. Their arb class consists of more non-tender candidates than locks to return, and the players to whom they do tender contracts (e.g. Blackburn, Brown) could well be traded.

That should set the stage for some degree of free agent spending, although as last offseason showed, it’s not really something for A’s fans to get excited about. Oakland isn’t going to commit the necessary resources to any productive, big-name free agents. Even most free agents in the second, third and fourth tiers of the market will likely have little interest in signing on for what is assured to be a non-competitive season played in front of even more sparse crowds than usual. Those same factors led to a 2022-23 slate of signings that was comprised of utilitymen for whom they probably overpaid (Diaz, Peterson) and injury/NPB/KBO rolls of the dice (May, Fujinami, Aguilar, Drew Rucinski).

Assuming more of the same this winter, the market has several rebound hopefuls who can play multiple positions — thus accommodating the Athletics’ general lack of established position players — who can likely be signed at a low cost. Names like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Paul DeJong, Brian Anderson, Adam Frazier, Eduardo Escobar and old friend Joey Wendle all come to mind. On the pitching side of things, names like Jake Odorizzi, Julio Teheran and Martin Perez could be in Oakland’s price range.

As bleak as things look in Oakland, there are a few spots on the diamond where they appear largely set. Noda had a tough finish to the season but still wound up with a .229/.364/.406 batting line and 16 home runs in 495 plate appearances. He’s not going to hit for much average with a 34.3% strikeout rate, but his massive 15.6% walk rate and above-average power will keep him productive enough to remain in the lineup (and give him a very vintage “Moneyball” Athletics vibe).

At second base, former second-rounder Zack Gelof debuted and turned in one of the strongest showings of any American League rookie in 2023. His performance might’ve gone largely under the radar, given that it came in just 69 games for a historically bad A’s team, but he slashed .267/.337/.504 with 14 home runs, 20 doubles, a triple and 14 steals in 300 plate appearances. Strikeouts are a concern (27.3%), but Gelof walks, hits for power, runs well and played good defense. He has the look of a clearly above-average regular and was far and away the brightest spot on this year’s team. He’s controlled for six more seasons.

Behind the plate, Oakland will likely give another look to Langeliers, whose glove and power are MLB-caliber but whose hit tool was lacking. Langeliers chased off the plate far too often and popped the ball up to the infield way too often when he did make contact (27 times). He still maintained strong exit velocity and hard-hit rates despite that penchant for harmless pop flies, but his work at the dish remains a work in progress. Fellow backstop Tyler Soderstrom is one of the sport’s top offensive prospects but struggled on both sides of the ball. An inexpensive free agent could join this mix.

In the outfield, Ruiz will get another look in center after stealing 67 bases, but he’ll need to improve his offense to remain in the lineup. The lackluster production at the plate and blistering speed are reminiscent of early-career Billy Hamilton, but Ruiz is nowhere near that caliber of defender, so he’ll need to improve either his general offensive output or his glovework to be a credible regular. Former No. 4 overall pick JJ Bleday, acquired from the Marlins for Puk, hit .195/.310/.355 but posted huge numbers in a smaller sample at Triple-A. Lawrence Butler’s first 129 plate appearances didn’t go well. All three will get more chances in 2024 — Ruiz in particular — but adding a low-cost outfielder like Travis Jankowski, Joey Gallo or Hunter Renfroe (to name a few speculative examples) seems feasible.

Some type of addition on the left side of the infield also seems likely, whether that’s buying low on a trade for someone who’s been squeezed out of his current organization (e.g. Nick Senzel) or signing more utility infield types. None of Nick Allen, Jordan Diaz, Kevin Smith and Jonah Bride have been able to stake a claim to a long-term job at either third base or shortstop. Much of that group will be given more chances, but Allen and Smith have struggled in multiple seasons now. Hernaiz could factor into the left side mix at some point midseason after a strong showing in the upper minors.

The pitching staff doesn’t create much more room for optimism. Blackburn and Sears both turned in passable performances, but the former is perhaps the team’s top remaining trade candidate, as previously mentioned. Top prospect Mason Miller impressed in a few short looks but has been oft-injured throughout his minor league career and spent much of the season on the big league injured list.

There’s a huge number of in-house candidates to take rotation jobs, but most have pitched poorly and/or been hurt in multiple MLB auditions to date. Muller, Waldichuk, Medina, Estes, Adrian Martinez, Freddy Tarnok and Joe Boyle are among the options on the 40-man roster. Journeyman southpaw Sean Newcomb could be in the mix as well, if he survives the winter on the 40-man after undergoing knee surgery recently. Waldichuk finished out the season decently and probably has the inside track among this bunch.

Somehow, there’s even less certainty in the bullpen. Dany Jimenez is the most experienced reliever slated to return. His 3.43 ERA in 57 2/3 innings over the past two seasons is solid, but he’s also walked 13.4% of his opponents during that time. Zach Jackson, who missed most of the year with a flexor strain, has a similarly impressive ERA but ugly walk rate. Waiver pickup Richard Lovelady might have done enough in 23 1/3 innings to earn himself a decent chance at a spot in 2024, but his season ended in July to a forearm strain.

It’s unlikely the A’s make any high-profile additions, but the dearth of quality arms and lack of anything resembling a big league pitching staff likely points to at least a few veteran additions. The A’s could dangle the ninth inning to a veteran looking for a bounceback season, as they did with May last winter. It’ll be a low bar for the 2024 staff to clear. Despite playing their home games in MLB’s most pitcher-friendly stadium, A’s hurlers ranked 29th in the Majors in ERA (5.48), 26th in strikeout rate (20.4%), last in walk rate (10.9%) and 27th in homers per nine innings (1.35).

This offseason will represent one of the darkest chapters in franchise history for an increasingly tortured A’s fan base. It appears all but certain that the team will be leaving the Bay within the next few years, and the 2024 campaign could represent the final year they play home games at the Coliseum. Yet lifelong fans hoping to enjoy perhaps the final year of their beloved Green & Gold at the Coliseum won’t see that appreciation returned by an ownership group that has no interest in competing between now and the time the team moves to Las Vegas. The A’s will spend some money on free agents, if only to ensure they retain their status as a revenue-sharing recipient, but they’ll also probably trade away a few of the familiar faces remaining on the roster.

The A’s posted winning records in 15 of Billy Beane’s 25 years atop the baseball operations hierarchy and never had more than three consecutive losing years, despite frequent rebuilds and perennial payroll constraints. Despite that success — including the aforementioned 97-win seasons in 2018-19 and the 2020 division title — Fisher has suggested that a winning franchise simply isn’t feasible in Oakland. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, and one that appears to be entering its final years while leaving the few fans who remain high and dry with little reason for optimism.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an A’s-centric chat on 10-03-23. Click here to view the transcript.

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