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MLBTR Poll: Yankees’ Third Base Situation

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The Yankees put up a three spot in the bottom of the eighth this afternoon, pulling out a comeback series win over the AL West-leading Rangers. It was a solid weekend that puts New York at 43-35 and in possession of the second Wild Card spot in the American League.

Despite taking two out of three from Texas, the Yanks didn’t do much to quiet concern about their offense. New York scored a combined eight runs and hasn’t topped five runs in a game in nearly two weeks. With Aaron Judge still facing an uncertain timeline after tearing a ligament in his right big toe, the Yankees are trying to find more punch in the lineup.

The offense is struggling essentially 1-9. No team has scored fewer runs since Judge’s last appearance on June 3. Among the biggest problem areas: third base, where the Yankees have gotten a .111/.164/.317 line (not including today’s game) since Judge’s IL stint and a .189/.260/.351 showing on the season overall.

As recently as a few weeks ago, Yankee brass could’ve reasonably attributed that brutal production to injury. Josh Donaldson had an underwhelming first season in the Bronx, but his .222/.308/.374 slash last year was still markedly better than the production they’ve gotten out of the position this season. Donaldson had been limited to five games before suffering a hamstring strain that kept him out of action until June 1. Manager Aaron Boone indicated in late May the Yankees would plug Donaldson back into the everyday lineup upon his return.

They mostly did so, starting him at third or designated hitter for 13 of their first 17 games this month. Donaldson returned from injury with a huge slump, hitting only .128/.208/.447 in 53 plate appearances. An .033 batting average on balls in play obviously isn’t doing him any favors, but he has hit almost no line drives as he tries to get back into form.

Considering those struggles, Donaldson’s status as a regular is now in question. He wasn’t in the lineup for any of the three games against Texas. DJ LeMahieu took a pair of third base starts, while Isiah Kiner-Falefa got the nod in the other contest. Boone stopped short of declaring it a benching, at least publicly. “He’s going to (get consistent playing time),” the skipper told reporters after today’s game (link via Chris Kirschner of the Athletic). “This is just a stretch where I felt like I wanted to give him a couple of days to kind of work through. That was just kind of my decision on that through this little stretch, but I expect him to get consistent at-bats.”

How consistently the former MVP will find himself in the lineup remains to be seen, though the Yankees haven’t had any alternatives forcing their way into the mix. LeMahieu is having his worst year since landing in the Bronx, hitting .230/.286/.387 through 255 trips to the plate. Kiner-Falefa has been spending more time in the outfield this year; he’s not hitting any better than LeMahieu, posting a .239/.275/.358 line. Oswaldo Cabrera has been even worse and has bounced on and off the active roster a few times of late.

Aside from the rest of the primary starters — Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe — the only other infielder on the 40-man roster is Oswald Peraza. The top prospect impressed in a late-season cup of coffee last year but struggled in his limited MLB time in 2023. He’s having an excellent year in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, raking at a .292/.360/.563 clip with 11 homers and steals apiece in 34 games. He’s not walking much but has kept his strikeouts to a tidy 14.9% rate.

Peraza hasn’t played in a week with an undisclosed injury. Conor Foley of the Scranton Times-Tribune reported (on Twitter) yesterday that it’s a minor ailment and Peraza is expected back in the lineup before long. He’s only made seven starts at third base between the majors and Triple-A, but as a well-regarded defensive shortstop, he shouldn’t have much issue handling the hot corner.

One could also make a case for the Yankees to turn to Peraza over Volpe at shortstop. Boone, owner Hal Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman have all remained steadfast in their support for Volpe in spite of his tough rookie season. Perhaps third base represents a cleaner path for the 23-year-old Peraza, though there’d be risk in counting on rookies at both left side infield spots.

There’s also the possibility of adding an upgrade from outside the organization. Trade activity doesn’t typically kick off in earnest until mid-late July. The Angels jumped the market for a pair of stopgap veteran infielders over the past few days, so it’s not an impossible task. There aren’t a ton of clear targets for infield-needy teams, however.

Jeimer Candelario is the only impending free agent third baseman who’s performing well on a noncompetitive team. The rental market is similarly bleak at shortstop and second base, so there aren’t any obvious candidates for a post-acquisition position change. Unless the Rockies surprisingly listen to offers on Ryan McMahon this summer, there probably won’t be any marquee trade possibilities at the position.

Where does that leave the front office and coaching staff? Who should get the bulk of the third base playing time at Yankee Stadium?

(poll link for app users)

 

The Braves’ Shortstop Gamble Is Paying Off

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The Braves entered the 2023 season with a question mark at shortstop. Atlanta didn’t seem to strongly pursue a reunion with Dansby Swanson over the winter. Only the front office knows how much that was due to payroll constraints versus a genuine belief in their other options. In any case, the Braves have picked up right where Swanson left off.

Atlanta shortstops have combined for a .310/.365/.422 batting line. Only the Rangers (where Corey Seager is playing at an MVP level) have gotten a stronger on-base percentage out of the position. Atlanta shortstops are eighth in slugging and fourth in overall offense as measured by wRC+.

If one were told three months ago that Braves’ shortstops were performing at this level, they’d probably have assumed Vaughn Grissom hit the ground running. The 22-year-old broke into the majors with a .291/.353/.440 showing as a rookie last season, filling in for Ozzie Albies at second base while the latter was injured. Midway through Spring Training, Grissom appeared to be the favorite for the job, with rookie Braden Shewmake also garnering some attention amidst a strong Spring Training.

The Braves went elsewhere. Atlanta made the surprising decision to option Grissom and Shewmake at the same time a week before Opening Day. That signaled a commitment to veteran Orlando Arcia, who had played a utility role since being acquired from the Brewers in a lopsided 2021 trade. It marked the first time he’d be in an Opening Day starting lineup since a four-year run as Milwaukee’s shortstop from 2017-20.

Arcia has seized the opportunity in a way few would’ve seen coming. He’s hitting .341/.400/.489 in exactly 200 trips to the plate. He lost a couple weeks with an early-season microfracture in his left wrist, but he’s started 52 of 73 games. Arcia was off to a .333/.400/.511 start before the injury. He has been no worse for wear since returning in early May, putting up a .343/.400/.482 line over the last six weeks.

The 28-year-old isn’t going to continue hitting at quite this level. He’s not going to maintain a .406 average on balls in play all year. He’s hitting .363 on ground-balls, a top ten figure in MLB that’s probably going to regress. It’d be too simplistic to wave away his strong first few months as a complete product of ball in play fortune, though.

Arcia’s plate discipline profile is the best of his career thus far. During his time with Milwaukee, he had a very aggressive approach that kept his walk rates near the bottom of the league. Not consistently swinging at good pitches was a big reason he never developed into the quality everyday shortstop the Brewers anticipated when he was coming through their system as a top prospect.

As he has gotten more experience, he’s become more patient. Arcia has swung around 45% of the time over the past two years after typically offering at over half the pitches he’d seen early in his career. He’s had a particularly discerning strike zone feel this season. He has chased less than 28% of pitches outside the zone, a career-low mark that’s four percentage points better than league average. He’s swinging at a typical rate at pitches within the zone, though. Laying off pitches off the plate without getting passive and letting too many hittable offerings pass by is a tough balance to strike.

Arcia has found it. Not coincidentally, he’s hitting the ball with more authority than usual. This season’s 45.8% hard contact percentage (batted balls with an exit velocity of 95+ MPH) is a personal best. A lot of that contact is coming on the ground, so he’s still not making a huge power impact. Combining average or better walk and strikeout numbers with a lot of hard, low-angle batted balls is a recipe for getting on base consistently. Arcia isn’t going to sustain a .400 OBP, but he looks capable of keeping his on-base a fair bit higher than the .312 league mark for shortstops.

Alongside the offense, Arcia has stepped back into regular shortstop duty without missing a beat defensively. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast have pegged his glove as four runs above average in a little less than 500 innings. He rated as a solid defender for most of his time with the Brewers but hadn’t played shortstop with regularity in three years because Swanson almost never missed a game. A couple seasons of multi-positional work don’t appear to have taken any toll on his glove at the infield’s most demanding spot.

The all-around production has Arcia among the top 30 position players in both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference WAR even with his three-week injury absence. Even if he falls off that pace as the BABIP declines, Arcia has provided the Braves more than they could’ve anticipated in the post-Swanson era. The top of Atlanta’s lineup is loaded with star talent. They only needed some stability at shortstop once they let Swanson go. Arcia has gone well beyond that.

In the process, he has quieted questions about promoting the younger players. Grissom and Shewmake each saw a little MLB action while he was hurt but have spent the majority of the season in Triple-A. Shewmake is having a dreadful offensive season there; Grissom is hitting well (.314/.380/.466 with an excellent 13.5% strikeout rate) while getting an extended run to try to improve his reputation as a middle infield defender. While shortstop once looked like a potential deadline concern for the front office, that’s no longer the case.

The final touch for the team: Arcia’s affordability. He and the club agreed to a restructured contract on Opening Day that could keep him in Atlanta through 2026. He’s making $2.3MM this season, followed by respective $2MM salaries for the next two years. There’s a matching ’26 club option that comes with a $100K buyout.

That’s fine value for the utility role he’d played between 2021-22. It’s a bargain for a quality everyday shortstop. Arcia is playing like one right now, one of the many reasons Atlanta is in pole position for a seventh consecutive division title.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

The Silver Lining Of The Angels’ Catching Injuries

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The Angels came into 2023 with an apparent logjam behind the plate, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco examined back in February. Prospect Logan O’Hoppe had just been acquired from the Phillies at last year’s deadline and seemed ready for an extended big league audition. Max Stassi was coming off a rough 2022 season but the club committed to him with a $17.5MM extension at the start of that year. With those two seeming to be likeliest candidates for jobs on the major league roster, it looked like Matt Thaiss might get squeezed out.

Thaiss, now 28, had already been through some ups and downs prior to the 2023 season. He was considered a bat-first catcher when the Angels selected him in the first round of the 2016 draft, using the 16th overall pick to nab him. Since his bat was considered his standout tool, they decided to focus on that, moving him to first base and seemingly abandoning the idea of him catching.

He always hit well in the minors, with an overall batting line of .278/.367/.454 in 582 games down on the farm. However, he wasn’t able to hit the ground running in the big leagues. He first reached the majors in July of 2019 but hit just .211/.293/.422 in the second half of that season for a wRC+ of 86. Over the next three years, he would spend the vast majority of his time on optional assignment, only getting into 40 major league games over those campaigns. He struggled in his sporadic chances, hitting .196/.307/.299 for a 74 wRC+.

Coming into 2023, he was out of options on account of languishing in the minors for most of the previous three years, but he was on the catching depth chart again. Although the Angels had initially moved him to first base and had also tried him at third, they moved him back behind the plate in 2021. He got into 54 games as a catcher for Triple-A Salt Lake that year. In 2022, he was behind the plate for 45 more Triple-A games and 14 in the big leagues.

It seemed like a fork in the road was coming at the start of 2023. He was out of options and was blocked by one player with a longer major league track record as well as a younger and shinier prospect. Although Thaiss was a former first-round pick and had plenty of minor league success, it seemed like he was destined to be cut from the roster.

But a couple of plot twists have happened since then. Stassi opened the season on the injured list due to a hip strain and has stayed there due to an undisclosed family situation. That opened a door for Thaiss to stick on the Opening Day roster as O’Hoppe’s backup, but then O’Hoppe landed on the injured list himself just three weeks later. He was diagnosed with a torn labrum in his shoulder that required surgery, putting him out of action for four to six months.

In less than a month, Thaiss went from the roster bubble to the club’s top catching option. No club wants to lose its top two catchers, of course, but at least this finally created some runway for them to see what Thaiss could do in the big leagues.

Thankfully for both him and the Angels, it has been working out well so far. In 51 games, he’s received 155 plate appearances. His 27.1% strikeout rate is on the high side, but he’s paired that with an excellent 13.5% walk rate. Among catchers with at least 150 trips to the plate, only Will Smith and Adley Rutschman have walked at a higher clip. Thaiss has just three home runs, but his .267/.374/.382 batting line amounts to a 116 wRC+. That places him in the top five in the league among backstops over that threshold of 150 plate appearances.

Of course, it’s not a total shock that he’s performing well at the plate, since that’s always been considered his best skill and he’s always hit on the farm. But he’s also holding his own defensively. By each of Statcast’s Blocks Above Average and their Caught Stealing Above Average metrics, Thaiss is graded with a zero or exactly league average. That’s not going to blow anyone’s socks off, but it’s a nice outcome for a guy who’s always been considered bat-first and wasn’t even catching as of a few years ago. Thaiss is still considered slightly below league average by Defensive Runs Saved and FanGraphs’ framing metric, but he’s not killing the club back there.

It’s also worth mentioning that veteran Chad Wallach is holding up his end of the deal as well. Those Statcast metrics consider him a bit below average, but he’s hit six home runs and is slashing .247/.304/.482 for a wRC+ of 114. For a guy who signed a minor league deal and was fourth on the depth chart coming into the year, that’s excellent production.

Turning back to Thaiss, he may not be a superstar but he’s inflated his own stock significantly in a few months. The roster squeeze won’t be coming back anytime soon, since O’Hoppe probably won’t be back until rosters expand in September — if he returns at all this season. Stassi’s timeline is completely unknown. He still has one guaranteed year left on his extension at $7MM, plus a $500K buyout on a 2025 club option, but after a dismal campaign in 2022 and this year potentially being entirely lost, he’s won’t be guaranteed any roster spots going forward.

Thaiss came into this year with one year and 38 days of service time, meaning he will finish this season at 2.038. That will leave him shy of Super Two status, allowing the Angels to potentially retain him cheaply for next year and three more arbitration campaigns beyond that. His defense still seems like a work in progress, but it doesn’t seem unreasonable to expect continued improvements there given his relatively short amount of time getting reacquainted with the position.

The Angels have often had star power from Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and others, but failed to succeed as a team due to injuries and a lack of depth. This year, they lost both of their primary catchers by the end of April, but it hasn’t been a disaster, with Thaiss and Wallach deserving credit for picking up the slack.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, No. 1: Twins Land A Rotation Cornerstone

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7, No. 6, No. 5, No. 4, No. 3. and No. 2. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Now for the top spot in our series…

The 2021 season was a disaster for the Twins. Fresh off a division title in the shortened 2020 season, they entered the year as the team to beat in the American League Central but faceplanted with a 9-15 showing in the season’s first month and never recovered. Offseason signings of Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ, Alex Colome and Matt Shoemaker all flopped. Top prospect Alex Kirilloff, expected to be a key contributor, was limited to 59 games thanks to a torn ligament in his wrist. Kenta Maeda followed up his Cy Young runner-up season with an injury-shortened year that ended with him undergoing Tommy John surgery. Jose Berrios was the only pitcher who even reached 110 innings on an injury-ravaged Twins staff.

Berrios was also one of several veterans the Twins wound up trading once they waved the white flag on their 2021 season. After years of failed extension efforts, he was traded to the Blue Jays in exchange for prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson. That trade was one of the headline moves of the entire 2021 trade deadline, but it wasn’t the defining move of the summer for the Twins.

That distinction goes to the first trade they made, jumping the market to send designated hitter Nelson Cruz to the Rays in a trade that brought back a pair of pitching prospects: the since-DFA’ed Drew Strotman and a near-MLB-ready right-hander by the name of Joe Ryan. The Twins also sent minor league righty Calvin Faucher to the Rays as part of the deal — he’s since made his debut but hasn’t pitched particularly well — so it can be argued that this wasn’t a pure rental, but the heart of the trade was a half season of Cruz for the aforementioned prospects.

Regardless of how things play out with Faucher, there’s no getting around the fact that the trade didn’t work out as the Rays hoped. Cruz was hitting .294/.370/.537 with 19 homers in 346 plate appearances at the time of the trade, and Tampa Bay hoped they were acquiring a heart-of-the-order slugger who could deepen their lineup and provide some needed thump in the postseason. Cruz kept hitting for power (13 homers, 238 plate appearances), but his strikeout rate spiked as his walk rate plummeted.

The end result was a .226/.283/.442 slash, plus a 3-for-17 showing in an ALDS loss to the Red Sox. One of those hits was a solo home run, but Cruz’s well below-average OBP and dramatic rise in strikeouts (from 18.2% in Minnesota to 26.5% in Tampa Bay) fell shy of expectations. Cruz hit free agency following the season and went on to sign a one-year deal with the Nationals.

The now-26-year-old Strotman’s time with the Twins lasted barely a year. He was hit hard in Minnesota’s Triple-A rotation following the trade and moved to the bullpen the following year, which did little to quell his long-running command issues. He’s since bounced to the Rangers and Giants via waivers, the latter of whom was able to pass him through waivers unclaimed. He currently has a 6.54 ERA in Triple-A Sacramento. Strotman was an upper-level pitching prospect who had a chance to debut in the Majors in relatively short order, but his half of the trade (quite clearly) hasn’t panned out.

The other half of the Twins’ return is another story entirely.

At the time of the trade, Ryan had only just begun to sneak onto the back-end of top-100 prospect rankings around the industry. He was in the midst of a strong season with Triple-A Durham, pitching to a 3.63 ERA with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 4.7% walk rate. Ryan’s lack of velocity — he averages under 93 mph on his fastball — perhaps created some skepticism about his ability to continue missing bats at that level in the big leagues, but his atypical release point has allowed him to continually befuddle hitters despite his pedestrian velocity.

Ryan’s time in the minor leagues with the Twins was brief, to say the least. Minnesota had the right-hander make just two starts in Triple-A following the trade before summoning him for his Major League debut. In his next four starts, Ryan held opponents to a 2.45 ERA with a 25-to-3 K/BB ratio in 22 innings. He was hit hard in his final outing of the year, finishing out the season with a 4.05 ERA and 30-to-5 K/BB ratio in 26 2/3 innings.

The Twins had seen enough to not only pencil Ryan into their 2022 rotation, but make him their Opening Day starter after just five big league appearances. Ryan’s 2022 campaign, his age-26 season, marked a significant step forward. The right-hander made 27 starts, pitched to a 3.55 ERA and fanned a quarter of his opponents against a tidy 7.8% walk rate. If there was any doubt about his status as a surefire big league starter, it’d largely been eliminated.

Continuing on at that pace would’ve made Ryan a clear building block for the Twins, but he’s taken his game to another new level so far in 2023. Long an extreme fly-ball pitcher, Ryan has added a splitter that’s helped him up his ground-ball rate and further neutralize left-handed opponents. Ryan’s 35% ground-ball rate is still lower than average by nearly 10 percentage points, but it’s a huge increase from the 27.7% mark he posted in 2022. Lefties weren’t effective against him in the first place, hitting just .202/.288/.348 in 2022, but they’ve flailed away at a .199/.242/.281 clip in 2023. The addition of that splitter has helped out against righties, too; they’re hitting just .225/.257/.373 against Ryan this year. Statcast credits the newly implemented splitter with a .196 “expected” opponents’ batting average and a .283 expected slugging percentage.

Ryan entered play today with a 3.30 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate and 4.5% walk rate in 84 1/3 innings. After averaging just over 5 1/3 innings per outing last year, he’s been given a longer leash by the Twins in 2023 and averaged a bit better than six innings per start. The mustachioed righty has already surpassed his 2022 total of 2.1 FanGraphs wins above replacement, and his 1.8 WAR over at Baseball-Reference is rapidly approaching last year’s mark of 2.3. He’s a candidate for a 2023 All-Star bid, and if he can sustain this pace, he’ll likely find himself on the periphery of Cy Young voting later this season.

Because Ryan fell well shy of a full year of service time in 2021, he didn’t accrue a full year of service until the completion of the 2022 season. He’ll finish the 2023 campaign with two-plus year of service and won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2024 season. The Twins control him all the way through the 2027 season, though his performance through his first 46 career starts certainly makes him a logical extension candidate for the Twins if the two sides can find a palatable middle ground.

It’s difficult for teams marketing rental players to command any degree of highly ranked prospects, let alone a near-MLB ready arm who can step into a big league rotation just weeks after the swap is completed. The Twins’ willingness to jump the sellers’ market — Cruz was traded more than a week before the deadline — and his status as perhaps the top bat available on the market created the right circumstances for Minnesota to strike gold and set a new benchmark for modern-day rental returns.

It’s probably not realistic for fans hoping their teams can cash in on a high-end rental player to expect a return this good, but the Twins surely don’t mind Ryan’s status as a best-case scenario for a return in this type of swap. Their decision to re-sign Cruz for a third year netted them a half season of excellent offense and, quite possibly, six-plus years of a pitcher who’s increasingly looking like a front-of-the-rotation arm. It’s the type of return any GM or president of baseball operations dreams of every July but the type that is rarely achieved.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

NPB Players To Watch: June

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It’s time for an update on NPB players who may be making their way to MLB in the near future. Here are the eight players that we are keeping track of at MLBTR. More details about their play styles and background are in the first article.

Players likely available in the 2023 offseason (most rumored or have publicly announced desire to play in MLB)

1. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Orix Buffaloes

In the May update, I wrote that Yamamoto had yet to have his signature outing of the 2023 season, and since then he’s posted three consecutive gems. Yamamoto tossed eight innings in all three starts, allowing just one run and holding hitters to .092, while fanning 29.8% of them.

The 24-year-old right-hander now has a 1.59 ERA on the season, striking out 28.3% of hitters while walking just 4.6% and holding hitters to .188 in 62 ⅓ innings. 

Yamamoto faces stiff competition from Sasaki for most strikeouts, but a third consecutive Pacific League Triple Crown (ERA, Wins, Ks) is definitely within reach.

2. Shota Imanaga, Yokohama DeNA Baystars

The 29-year-old left-hander is back to looking like the Yokohama Baystars ace after a rough May. In his last four starts, Imanaga has a 2.32 ERA, striking out 23.3% of hitters and walking 4.3%. 

On the season, Imanaga has a 2.78 ERA, 26.7 K%, 3.3 BB%, and keeping hitters to a .225 batting average in 55 innings. The lefty struggles with the long ball at times (giving up eight in May), but regularly pitches deep into games, only failing to throw seven innings twice.

Imanaga positioned himself for an MLB move in 2023 by signing with a new agency last December. Given his strong track record in both NPB and international competitions, multiple teams should be showing interest in Imanaga this offseason.

3. Kona Takahashi, Saitama Seibu Lions

After a blistering start to the season, Takahashi has hit somewhat of a rough patch, with a 3.46 ERA in his last four starts. The 26-year-old right-hander is still tied for the Pacific League lead in ERA among qualified pitchers with a 2.11 mark.

On the season, the Lions’ ace is striking out 21% of hitters and holding them to .215, while walking 7.3% in 81 total innings. 

According to Nikkan Gendai, an MLB scout said that Takahashi’s improvement has been a pleasant surprise. “He did not know how to pace himself before, so he’d be tired by around 80 pitches. Since last season, he’s balanced out his delivery and pace. With his frame at 6’2-6’3 and 231 lbs and the combination of an upper 90s fastball and splitter, barring any setbacks, multiple MLB teams should show interest in the offseason.”

4. Yuki Matsui, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles

The 27-year-old left-handed closer is as reliable as ever, with a 0.77 ERA, 38.8 K%, and 14 saves in 24 appearances in 2023. 

An overseas free agent this offseason, Matsui has not clearly stated his intentions for a move to MLB this offseason outside of vague comments made earlier in his career. 

Interestingly, he has made some changes this season that may be signaling a potential move.

He has mostly relied on his four-seam, splitter, and slider in his career, but this season he has cut down his slider usage and heavily increased the usage of his splitter. Given that the ability to throw splitters is highly valued in MLB, this could very well be him showcasing MLB front offices that his stuff will translate to the big leagues. 

There is certainly a need across the league for left-handed relievers with strikeout ability, and Matsui may be an interesting option. 

5. Naoyuki Uwasawa, Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters

The 29-year-old right-hander has bounced back from a nightmarish start to the season and is back to looking like an ace for the Fighters. In his last four starts since the previous NPB update, Uwasawa has a 1.74 ERA in 31 innings, striking out 20.8% of hitters and holding them to a .158 batting average, while walking 6.7%. 

Stuff-wise, Uwasawa lags behind the other players on the list and profiles similar to former Fighters teammate and former Rangers starting pitcher Kohei Arihara. He faces an uphill battle to earn an MLB contract, but he seems intent on taking on the challenge anyway. Maintaining his current form and finishing the season below a 2.50 ERA would definitely improve his chances.

Younger stars to keep an eye on

1. Roki Sasaki, Chiba Lotte Marines

Sasaki has come down to earth a little bit after a 1.00 ERA in April and 1.64 ERA in May. In his last four starts, Sasaki has a 3.24 ERA and two losses. The ‘Monster of Reiwa’ still has a 1.89 ERA on the season, striking out hitters at an unfathomable 40.4% rate and holding them to .146 while walking just 5.6%.

While Sasaki has unquestionable stuff and strikeout ability, building up the stamina to handle a full season workload is the next step in his development. Marines manager Masato Yoshii said that he might skip Sasaki’s next start, saying that he looked tired. Sasaki usually throws on six days of rest this season. Unless he makes a surprise request to be posted, Sasaki has a couple of season to improve that area of his game. 

2. Munetaka Murakami, Tokyo Yakult Swallows

The reigning Triple Crown winner looks more like himself in June, slashing .291/.418/.455 in 67 plate appearances. On the season, Murakami has a .233/.317/.419 line with a .789 OPS and 11 homers, a disappointing follow-up to his historic 2022 season.

Murakami is striking out on a horrendous 32% of at-bats, and his NPB-worst 89 total strikeouts is 22 more than the next closest at 67 strikeouts. He still has a strong walk rate at 16.5%, but is simply not making good contact.

Murakami is especially struggling to hit velocity, hitting just .083 against fastballs thrown harder than 150 km/h (93.75 mph). and is also struggling to hit righties, hitting just .180. 

3. Kazuma Okamoto, Yomiuri Giants

A newcomer on this list, Okamoto has been one of the best hitters in NPB who is enjoying a career season. Some of you may remember him for his solo homer that extended Team Japan’s lead over Team USA in the WBC Final.

The 6’1, 220lb slugger is a career .275 hitter with 182 homers, hitting at least 30 homers in every season since becoming a full-time starter in 2018. Okamoto was the youngest player in NPB to post a .300, 30HR, 100 RBI season. He led the Central League in homers and RBIs in back-to-back seasons in 2020 and 2021, 

The soon-to-be 27-year-old corner infielder is hitting .322/.414/.597 with 17 homers, 42 RBIs and an OPS of 1.010 in 2o23. He would be in prime position for the Triple Crown in any other season if it wasn’t for Toshiro Miyazaki and his .372 batting average. 

In comparison to Murakami, Okamoto hits for less average and walks less. Okamoto has hit over .300 just once in his career, and has a 10.5% career BB% compared to Murakami’s 16.5%. Okamoto plays average defense at third base and has taken first base and left field reps this year. 

Okamoto has hinted at some interest in a potential MLB move, but there is nothing concrete yet. He isn’t set to be a free agent for four years, his age-31 season. The Giants are traditionally against the posting system, so it remains to be seen whether or not he will request a move before that.

Honorable Mentions

The following players have either expressed their desire to play in the big leagues, been rumored by Japanese media, or have drawn interest from MLB scouts but have factors (age, team stance on posting system) preventing a potential move. I’ve also added top performers who may be of interest.

Shosei Togo, right-handed starting pitcher, Yomiuri Giants; Keiji Takahashi, left-handed starting pitcher, Tokyo Yakult Swallows; Taisei Ohta, right-handed reliever, Yomiuri Giants; Hiroto Takahashi, right-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Kaima Taira, right-handed starting pitcher, Saitama Seibu Lions; Atsuki Yuasa, right-handed reliever, Hanshin Tigers; Shinnosuke Ogasawara, left-handed starting pitcher, Chunichi Dragons; Shunpeita Yamashita, Orix Buffaloes; Tatsuya Imai, Seibu Lions; Takahisa Hayakawa, Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles; Atsuki Taneichi, Chiba Lotte Marines

 

Big Hype Prospects: Rodriguez, Rodriguez, Harrison, Pfaadt, Ford

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The NL Central remains a hotbed of prospect promotions. Henry Davis is the latest big name scheduled to make his debut. Out west, Emmet Sheehan appeared last Friday. Unless you’re a diehard Dodgers fan, chances are you first heard about Sheehan’s rising star during our AFL coverage last fall. Sheehan tossed six scoreless innings.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Grayson Rodriguez, 23, SP, BAL (AAA)
(AAA) 22 IP, 11.86 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 2.86 ERA

Earlier in the season, Rodriguez posted a 7.35 ERA in 45 1/3 Major League innings. His is a cautionary tale about pitcher prospectdom. Like many pitchers who sustain a lat injury, he hasn’t returned at the top of his game. In particular, his offspeed stuff and command haven’t been as crisp post-injury. He still profiles as a high-quality starter. There’s less certainty he’s an ace in the making. Since returning to the minors, Rodriguez has seen his swinging strike rate improve. He continues to walk too many hitters. His issues with the dreaded disease homeritis followed him back to the minors (1.23 HR/9). One straightforward path forward for Rodriguez is to get his BABIP and home runs in order. He posted a .372 BABIP and 2.58 HR/9 in his big league time. Per his 3.87 xFIP, which assumes a league-average BABIP and HR/FB ratio, a small adjustment could be all that’s needed.

Endy Rodriguez, 23, C, PIT (AAA)
227 PA, 4 HR, 4 SB, .245/.326/.380

Entering this year, Rodriguez appeared to be on the cusp of promotion. Since then, Davis leapfrogged him. Rodriguez’s surprise 2022 campaign was built upon a sturdy foundation of discipline and high-quality contact. The switch-hitter remains disciplined, but his contact profile has taken a step back. His exit velocities are acceptable but unexceptional. He isn’t hitting many fly balls with authority. The one thing I see jumping out in the data is a sharp surge in opposite-field contact. That indicates… something. Of what, I can’t be certain. Likely, the Pirates advised him to balance his previously pull-heavy approach. Perhaps reembracing his past tendencies might be the way forward.

Kyle Harrison, 21, SP, SFG (AAA)
47.1 IP, 15.21 K/9, 7.04 BB/9, 3.42 ERA

From the four numbers reported above, the one that stands out is the walk rate. The good news: over his last five starts, he has allowed 4.35 BB/9. There’s no doubt about his ability to miss bats. It’s less certain if he’ll develop the command necessary to start. The Giants are carefully managing Harrison’s workload – perhaps with an eye on using him in the Majors later this season. He often works on six or more days of rest, and he’s yet to face 20 batters in a start. Even when he no-hit the Dodgers affiliate, Harrison was removed after four innings. If he arrives this season, such usage leads me to expect a bulk relief role. Those hoping Harrison will take the place of Alex Cobb are liable to be disappointed.

Brandon Pfaadt, 24, SP, ARI (AAA)
(AAA) 44 IP, 10.43 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 3.89 ERA

Like Grayson Rodriguez, Pfaadt had a rough go in his first taste of the Majors. He posted a 8.37 ERA. Unlike Rodriguez, ERA estimators didn’t care for his effort (7.16 FIP, 5.38 xFIP). In four starts since returning to the minors, Pfaadt has posted a 3.86 ERA with 21 strikeouts in 18 2/3 innings. Home runs continue to plague him, although that’s hard to hold against a pitcher in the PCL. When he was demoted, the Diamondbacks noted they would work on mechanical issues to get him back up to snuff. At his best, Pfaadt features four pitches he can use to generate whiffs.

Harry Ford, 20, C, SEA (A+)
280 PA, 8 HR, 13 SB, .249/.411/.410

The Mariners find themselves faced with a classic conundrum. Ford’s bat is substantially ahead of his glove. He could move to an easier-to-learn position and perhaps debut in 2024. As a catcher, we should expect him to advance level-to-level with a debut in 2026. Even then, it’s possible he’ll quickly move off the position like Daulton Varsho. Ford features excellent plate discipline and above-average power. His hit tool is trending as middling. The Varsho parallel is made all the more obvious by Ford’s rare speed for a catcher – a trait which would just so happen to make learning another position relatively easy. Reports (and journalists) praise Ford for his work ethic and amiability.

Three More

Junior Caminero, TBR (19): Though his pace has slowed since reaching Double-A, Caminero continues to thrive at the plate. One of the youngest players at the level, he’s hitting .297/.347/.438 in 72 plate appearances with two home runs. Encouragingly, his walk rate is up two points from his time in High-A. Many expect discipline to determine his final outlook.

Tsung-Che Cheng, PIT (21): One of the top-performing hitters in the minors, Cheng has greatly improved his prospect status this season. Defensively capable all over the infield, he’s now showing multi-faceted capacity as a hitter too. His once-minus power is approaching average. His plus discipline, contact, and speed could help the total package to play up.

Andrew Abbott, CIN (24): Abbott, who we covered in more detail shortly before his debut, is now 17 2/3 scoreless innings into his career. It’s looking rather fluky. ERA estimators range from 3.50 to 5.50. After missing piles of bats in the minors, he’s suddenly no longer inducing whiffs. He also isn’t avoiding hard contact. If nothing changes, the other shoe will drop in a big way. He’s an extreme fly ball pitcher with Great American Ball Park as his home.

Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.

Five Bats Improving Their Stock Ahead Of Free Agency

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With the midpoint of the 2023 regular season fast approaching, the 2023-24 free agent class is beginning to solidify. The coming class has long been considered one deep in pitching but light on potentially impactful hitters. While that evaluation has mostly held up throughout the first half of the season, a handful of surprising hitters are on track for a healthy payday this winter, should their performance hold up throughout the rest of the year.

Each of these players has appeared primarily as a DH in 2023, meaning they would offer prospective suitors little in the way of defensive value. Still, each could find himself among the top options for teams looking to add thump to their lineup without breaking the bank for the likes of Shohei Ohtani or Matt Chapman. Let’s take a look at five hitters who are helping to transform the complexion of the coming class of free agent hitters, in ascending order based on their wRC+ in 2023:

Justin Turner, Red Sox (121 wRC+):

After nine seasons with the Dodgers, the club’s longest tenured hitter departed Los Angeles over the offseason, eventually landing with the Red Sox on a complex two-year deal with an opt-out following the 2023 campaign. Despite concerns that the veteran infielder was headed for a downturn in terms of production as he entered his late thirties, Turner has managed to stave off father time through his first 67 games in Boston, slashing .278/.356/.451 across 289 plate appearances.

That quality slash line comes with excellent peripheral numbers, as well: his 14.5% strikeout rate remains elite, and his 9.7% walk rate is well above league average in its own right. His chase rate has actually improved since last season, as his 65th percentile rank in 2022 has leapt to the 80th percentile in 2023. Those improvements leave Turner with a .363 xwOBA that would be his best in a 162 game season since 2019. While there’s some cause for concern about the veteran’s power production going forward, as his barrel rate has dipped from 8% last season to just 6% in the current campaign, Turner seems all but certain to beat the $6.7MM he’d be leaving on the table by returning to the open market this offseason as long as he stays healthy and avoids a significant downturn in production in the second half.

Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (122 wRC+):

After posting the first below-average offensive season of his career (98 wRC+) with the Brewers in 2022, McCutchen decided to return to Pittsburgh, where the veteran outfielder was drafted in the first round of the 2005 draft, played for nine seasons, and earned an MVP award. He and the Pirates agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal that has worked out splendidly for both sides: McCutchen has slashed .262/.379/.424 across 256 plate appearances in his age-36 season while recording his 2,000th hit in a Pirates uniform as the club has bucked expectations in the first half of the season, posting a 34-36 record that leaves them just 2.5 games out of first place in the NL Central.

When McCutchen returns to free agency following the 2023 campaign, the decorated veteran figures to have recorded his 300th home run and 400th double in addition to his aforementioned 2,000th hit. On top of those career milestones, McCutchen has experienced nothing short of a career renaissance in returning to Pittsburgh. His 19.5% strikeout rate is the lowest its been since he left Pittsburgh following the 2017 season, while his 16% walk rate ranks sixth among all qualified hitters. His chase rate is similarly elite, ranking in the 95th percentile of qualifying hitters. Though he’s appeared in the outfield just eight times this season, McCutchen’s resurgence in 2023 seems all but guaranteed to allow him to continue his career into 2024 and beyond, whether that be with the Pirates or elsewhere.

J.D. Martinez, Dodgers (131 wRC+):

While the previous two veterans on this list have found success by combining roughly average power with elite plate discipline, Martinez has largely done the opposite throughout his career. Once among the league’s most fearsome sluggers as he challenged for a Triple Crown in the AL back in 2018 en route to a 4th place finish in MVP voting, Martinez’s final seasons in Boston saw the slugger’s production decline, as he posted a wRC+ of 116 from 2020-22 with an ISO of just .199 after posting marks .228 or higher in every season from 2014-2019.

After signing with the Dodgers on a one-year deal worth $10MM, Martinez seems to have rediscovered his power stroke in 2023. He’s already slammed 16 home runs in 55 games this season, matching the total he managed across 139 games in 2022. That being said, the renewed power has come at the cost of plate discipline: Martinez’s 5.6% walk rate would be his lowest over a full season since 2013, while his 29.9% strikeout rate would be the highest of his entire career. Still, it’s hard to argue with the results, as Martinez’s current wRC+ and xWOBA would both be his best since the aforementioned 2019 season if maintained over a full season while his ISO leads the majors among qualified hitters. In his return to free agency this offseason, Martinez figures to offer elite power production out of the DH spot, even entering his age-36 campaign.

Joc Pederson, Giants (149 wRC+):

The Giants raised some eyebrows this past offseason by extending Pederson a Qualifying Offer after a phenomenal 2022 campaign, but the lefty-swinging slugger has quieted doubters by improving on last season’s performance in 137 plate appearances in 2023. While his .237 ISO has dipped slightly as compared to last season’s .247 mark, Pederson has more than made up for it by raising his walk rate from an above-average 9.7% clip in 2022 to a whopping 14.6% this season as his 21.2% strikeout rate in 2023 would be his lowest since 2018.

What’s more, unlike the three veterans we’ve discussed to this point, Pederson will be just 31 years old on Opening Day 2024, making him a safer bet to stave off age-related decline than any of Turner, McCutchen, and Martinez. That being said, Pederson is not without flaws. He sports a worrisome platoon split, with just a .626 OPS against lefties in his career, and has largely been platoon-protected during his time with San Francisco. What’s more, he’s struggled to stay healthy this year, with two stints on the injured list already in the young 2023 campaign. Despite those flaws, though, Pederson’s lefty power figures to be represent one of the more impactful bats available via free agency this offseason.

Jorge Soler, Marlins (150 wRC+):

After struggling to a below-average .207/.295/.400 slash line in the first year of his three-year, $36MM pact with the Marlins last season, Soler has exploded in 2023 as one of the top power threats in the majors. His .298 ISO ranks fifth among all qualified major leaguers, behind only Martinez, Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Yordan Alvarez. He’s already clobbered 20 home runs in just 282 plate appearances this season, matching the pace of his 48-homer campaign with the Royals in 2019. Soler has paired that elite power production with an elite 12.8% walk rate that would be a career best over a full season. While he’s still striking out at an elevated 24.1% clip, that figure is still a marked improvement over last season, during which he punched out in 29.4% of his plate appearances.

Like Pederson, Soler is in the midst of his age-31 season, meaning he could be an attractive candidate for multi-year offers from power-needy teams this offseason. Soler also boasts a more palatable platoon split: while he hits lefties far better than righties for his career, he’s still managed a .775 OPS against right-handers in his career, including a .807 figure in 2023. That being said, one potential cause for concern regarding Soler is his health, as the slugger spent the majority of the second half on the shelf with lower back spasms in 2022. If Soler can stay healthy and productive throughout the second half of the 2023 campaign, however, he could put his reputation as one of the sport’s most mercurial hitters to rest and emerge as one of the top offensive players in the coming free agent class, easily eclipsing the $9MM he would leave on the table by opting out of his deal with the Marlins to test free agency.

The Yankees Are Showing The Importance Of Minor League Deals

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Every offseason, there are huge moves that grab headlines and have the ability to transform franchises. Top free agents get nine-figure deals while other high quality players are traded for top prospects. Though there are also transactions that might fly under the radar but still go on to play an important role in the future, such as waiver claims and minor league deals.

The Yankees are illustrating the importance of those minor league deals this year, as various injuries have forced them to turn to players that weren’t on the roster initially. Let’s highlight some players who had to settle for non-roster pacts but have gone on to earn meaningful playing time for the Yanks in 2023.

December 16, 2021 – right-hander Jimmy Cordero

December 14, 2022 – first baseman/outfielder Jake Bauers

December 23, 2022 – right-handers Ryan Weber and Nick Ramirez

December 31, 2022 – outfielder Willie Calhoun

December 31, 2022 – outfielder Billy McKinney

February 5, 2023 – right-hander Ian Hamilton

The Yankees have dealt with a number of significant injuries this year. Aaron Judge went on the injured list in early May due to a hip strain and is now there again thanks to a toe sprain. Harrison Bader began the season on the IL due to an oblique strain. Though he eventually returned, he’s now back on the IL a second time because of a hamstring strain. Giancarlo Stanton and Josh Donaldson are with the club now but have missed significant time with their own ailments. In addition to those injuries, they also dealt with the struggles of Aaron Hicks, which eventually led to his release. All of that has created opportunities for other players, with each of Calhoun, Bauers and McKinney getting roster spots.

Calhoun had previously received chances from the Rangers and Giants but had continued to struggle. He had a career batting line of .240/.299/.404 as of this winter for a wRC+ of 84. But he had always hit well in the minors and was a former top 100 prospect. He’s now been given a roster spot with the Yankees and has received 140 plate appearances for the season. He’s walked in 9.3% of his plate appearances while striking out at just a 12.1% clip, launching five home runs in the process. His .238/.307/.413 batting line amounts to a 98 wRC+, indicating he’s been just barely below league average. For an emergency fill-in guy, that’s not half bad, and he might even get better results if his .238 batting average on balls in play ticks up closer to the .297 league average.

Bauers was in a fairly similar situation, having once been a top 100 guy who struggled in auditions with Tampa, Cleveland and Seattle. He hit .213/.307/.348 in the majors prior to this season, leading to an 82 wRC+. But in 104 plate appearances as a Yankee this year, he’s hitting .222/.308/.456 for a wRC+ of 109. He’s striking out in 32.7% of his trips to the plate but is also walking at an 11.5% clip.

Like those two, McKinney had also been on top 100 lists in the past. He had been put into action with the Yankees, Blue Jays, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Athletics, but had hit .206/.277/.387 for a wRC+ of 77 by the end of 2022. He was called up recently and has only been in seven games so far this year, but he’s put up a huge .320/.320/.640 showing in that small sample. His ability to play center field is huge for the club, with each of Bader, Judge and Greg Allen on the injured list.

The bullpen is another area where the Yanks have dealt with significant challenges. Scott Effross seemed to be emerging as a key piece for them last year but required Tommy John surgery in October, effectively ruling him out for 2023. Jonathan Loáisiga made just three appearances before requiring surgery for a bone spur, with his return still several months away. Lou Trivino began the year on the injured list and ultimately required Tommy John surgery in May, which will prevent him from contributing anything this year. Tommy Kahnle was supposed to play a meaningful role after signing a two-year, $11.5MM deal in the offseason but he was on the IL for the first two months of the schedule.

Those injuries have opened the door for the minor league signees listed above. Cordero was signed way back in the 2021-2022 offseason but the Yankees selected his contract at the end of last year to prevent him from becoming a free agent. He’s tossed 27 2/3 innings with a 28.2% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 55.9% ground ball rate. He has a 3.58 ERA but probably deserves even better since he has a 66.4% strand rate, leading to a 2.70 FIP and 3.07 SIERA. Ramirez has a 1.64 ERA in a smaller sample of 11 innings. Hamilton is currently on the IL but has a 1.23 ERA in 22 innings thus far on the season. Weber’s season is now in jeopardy as Tommy John surgery might be required, but he posted a 3.14 ERA in 14 1/3 innings before landing on the 60-day IL.

None of these players is going to be voted the Most Valuable Player or the Cy Young winner, but they have nonetheless showed the importance of depth. The Yankees been without key players like Judge and Bader while others have been slumping badly, but they haven’t been buried in the standings. They are 39-30 and still holding onto a playoff spot. Despite having one of the highest payrolls in the league with plenty of high-paid stars on the roster, they have had a few games recently where their entire outfield was guys whom they’d signed to minor league deals. Thanks to the contributions of these various players, they are hanging in the race with the all-important trade deadline just over the horizon. There’s an old saying that there’s no such thing as a bad minor league deal, and these pacts are looking quite good for the Yanks right now.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, No. 2: Marlins Cash In Marte

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8, No. 7, No. 6, No. 5, No. 4 and No. 3. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 2…

The Marlins and Starling Marte at one point both hoped the dynamic outfielder would spend the final years of his career in Miami. Marte, whom the Fish acquired from the D-backs at the 2020 trade deadline when he had a season and a half of club control remaining, immediately took a liking to South Beach and voiced a desire to remain there long-term. A then-32-year-old Marte was willing to talk extension during the season in 2021, and the two parties headed into the All-Star break in the midst of extension negotiations.

Starling Marte | Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY SportsReporting from Craig Mish, Jordan McPherson and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald at the time indicated that Marte was seeking a four-year extension offer that would cover his age-33 through age-36 seasons — a reasonable request for a player of his caliber. Marte entered that year’s All-Star break with a strong .271/.382/.411 batting line, after all, and was a career .287/.341/.450 hitter entering that 2021 campaign.

The Marlins said all the right things publicly about wanting to keep Marte, but Mish and McPherson reported after the All-Star break that the team had topped out on a three-year offer worth less than $40MM. That type of offer was never going to get a deal done — Marte wound up signing a four-year, $78MM deal in free agency in the offseason, remember — and it was a bit surprising the Fish even put it out there. Regardless, the focus shifted to finding a trade partner for Marte, and in the end, things could hardly have worked out better for Miami.

Marte, as one would expect, quickly became a hot commodity on the trade market once it became clear that an extension in Miami wasn’t happening. The Giants, Yankees, Phillies and Astros were among the teams showing interest, and San Francisco in particular appeared to be a strong on-paper fit. There was never any talk about the Athletics harboring interest in Marte, and their outfield appeared largely set anyhow — at least from the outside looking in. Just days after the trade deadline, however, Ramon Laureano was hit with an 80-game PED ban. He’d almost certainly already gone through the appeals process by that point, so there’s a chance the A’s had a strong inkling they’d need some outfield help by the time they swung their July 28 deal for Marte.

Regardless of the circumstances that led to the trade, it was a legitimate shocker. There’d been virtually nothing to link the two teams prior to the deal, and a low-payroll club like the A’s taking on an expensive rental player didn’t seem plausible. Miami, however, kicked in $4MM to help cover the remainder of Marte’s salary. Owner Bruce Sherman was likely plenty OK with doing so, given the return.

Jesus Luzardo entered the 2020 season as the top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball. He had a decent but not elite rookie campaign during the pandemic-shortened 2020 sprint (4.12 ERA in 59 innings). Paired with a strong showing during his 12-inning cup of coffee as a 21-year-old late in the 2019 season, he looked ready for primetime and entered the ’21 season regarded as a breakout candidate who could soon front Oakland’s rotation.

Things didn’t pan out that way. Luzardo was rocked for a 5.79 ERA through his first six starts and was placed on the injured list after sustaining a hairline fracture in his left pinkie. The injury, one of the more bizarre IL trips in recent memory, occurred after Luzardo hit his hand on a desk while playing video games. The lefty apologized to the team and fans after the fact, calling the injury “stupid” and “immature.” Luzardo returned a month later, this time pitching out of the bullpen, and allowed 11 runs in 10 innings before being optioned to stretch back out as a starter.

Embarrassing injury aside, the future still seemed plenty bright for Luzardo, even with a poor 38 innings to begin his 2021 season. Perhaps the video game incident contributed to the forthcoming decision. Perhaps the A’s just didn’t feel Luzardo would live up to his prospect status. Or, more likely, perhaps vice president Billy Beane and general manager David Forst knew full-well what was coming in the offseason — massive payroll cuts from ownership and the inevitable teardown of a roster that won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019 — and simply felt they needed to push all-in for a ring in 2021.

The 56-46 Athletics traded Luzardo, who still had five years of club control remaining, to the Marlins in order to acquire the final two-plus months of Marte’s contract before he reached free agency.

I used the term “deadline-season stunner” at the time of the trade and still feel that holds up. It’s simply rare for an MLB-ready pitcher with this much promise and this much club control to be moved at all — let alone for a two-month rental. That the acquiring team was a small-market, low-payroll club like the A’s and hadn’t been linked to Marte whatsoever only added to the surprise. In all likelihood, this trade coming together required a perfect storm: the looming PED ban for Laureano, the regrettable freak injury for Luzardo early in the season, and career years/breakouts from several A’s pitchers (Frankie Montas, Chris Bassitt, Cole Irvin, James Kaprielian) that all made Luzardo feel a bit more expendable.

In an all too common refrain for the tortured Oakland fanbase these days, the trade hasn’t worked out for the A’s. Granted, Marte was brilliant in green and gold, hitting .316/.359/.466 with five homers, 16 doubles, a pair of triples and a hefty 25 steals in just 56 games. The Athletics couldn’t have realistically asked for much more than that, but the rest of the team didn’t hold up well enough to even reach the postseason.

The A’s still finished 10 games over .500, but Oakland lost nine of its final 13 games, finishing third place in the AL West and winding up five games out in the AL Wild Card chase. Marte reached free agency and was ineligible for a qualifying offer by virtue of that midseason trade. Oakland received no compensation for his departure, and ownership gutted payroll as the front office embarked on yet another rebuild.

Down in Miami, things got out to a rocky start as well. Luzardo’s velocity was down a bit in a dozen post-trade starts, and he posted a 6.44 ERA with the Marlins overall in his first run with the club. It wasn’t a great start.

Things took a sharp turn in Miami’s favor the following season. Luzardo, born in Peru but raised in Florida, looked far more comfortable in the first full season of his homecoming. A forearm injury limited him to 100 1/3 innings, but he broke out with a 3.32 ERA, a 30% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate — all while displaying a career-best 96.4 mph average on his heater. His swinging-strike and opponent chase rates were the highest of his career, and he gave up less hard contact than he had during his ugly 2021 campaign.

The Marlins received trade interest in Luzardo over the winter and surely could’ve moved him for a haul of young talent if they’d preferred, but the Fish held onto the still just 25-year-old lefty and now find themselves in the running for a postseason berth. Miami has won eight of ten games and is just three and a half games behind the division-leading Braves in the NL East. If the season ended today, the Fish would land the National League’s second Wild Card spot.

Luzardo has been a key part of that, although his recent six-run clunker did mark his third start of five or more runs allowed this year. Even with that trio of rough outings, Luzardo has a 4.17 ERA. His 27.3% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate are much more encouraging, however. Like many pitchers on a Marlins club that is playing multiple players out of position, Luzardo’s been hampered by his defense (.335 BABIP). Fielding-independent metrics like FIP and SIERA both peg him at 3.58 so far this season.

Dating back to Opening Day 2021, Luzardo has given the Marlins 32 starts and 178 innings of 3.69 ERA ball with a 28.8% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He’s not only regained any velocity that dipped in 2021 but is now averaging a career-high 96.8 mph on his heater. Luzardo’s swinging-strike and chase rates both suggest there’s the potential for even more strikeouts. Even if his results never catch up to the strong marks he’s receiving from fielding-independent numbers, the 2021-22 version of Luzardo is already a playoff-caliber starting pitcher. He may not be an “ace,” and fans can debate whether he’s more of a “No. 2” or “No. 3” type starter, but he’s solidified himself as an above-average starter with upside for more.

The Marlins control Luzardo for three more years beyond the current season. He reached arbitration as a Super Two player this past winter and is already earning $2.45MM. As a Scott Boras client, an extension isn’t likely, so expect Luzardo’s name to pop up in trade rumors again as he inches closer to free agency. Even by Miami payroll standards, he’s a bargain in 2023 and will be again in 2024, so a trade in the short-term doesn’t seem likely. For now, he’ll continue slotting into the rotation of a surprisingly competitive Miami club that could enter the deadline as a buyer if it can maintain any semblance of its current pace.

As for the A’s, they’re on the opposite end of the spectrum, with their primary 2023 goal at this point being to avoid the worst record in big league history. It’s hard to blame the Oakland front office for going all in and trading Luzardo, knowing the fire sale was coming, but the A’s would be a lot less futile with him in the rotation. Or, at the very least, the farm system would likely be stronger with the influx of young talent they could’ve acquired by putting him on the market as part of the rebuild this past offseason.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Infield Upgrades Should Be A Deadline Focus For Marlins

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The Marlins held onto a 4-1 win over the Mariners in dramatic fashion yesterday, pushing them to 38-31. They’re in possession of the National League’s second Wild Card spot. They’re 4 1/2 back of the Braves in the NL East but multiple games clear of the Phillies and Mets for second place in the division.

It’s a start that’ll surprise some onlookers. The Marlins are no longer rebuilding and fully intended to be competitive, but they were generally perceived as the fourth-best team in a strong division. While unimpressive starts from Philadelphia and New York have certainly helped, Miami is seven games above .500 and trending towards deadline season as a buyer.

The Marlins are already looking into ways to upgrade behind the plate. That’s understandable; neither Nick Fortes nor Jacob Stallings has done enough to deter the front office from exploring upgrades. There haven’t yet been any reports about Miami gauging the infield market, though that also figures to be a priority for GM Kim Ng and her front office.

Miami aggressively reshaped their infield over the offseason. The Fish went into the winter looking to add high-contact hitters to the lineup. They actualized that in the infield, swapping Pablo López (and a couple prospects) to the Twins for Luis Arraez while adding Jean Segura and Yuli Gurriel via free agency.

Arraez’s acquisition and return to second base pushed Jazz Chisholm to center field. Segura was signed to play third base. Brian Anderson had already been non-tendered, so Segura displaced utility types Joey Wendle and Jon Berti at the hot corner. At the end of the winter, Miami traded clubhouse leader Miguel Rojas to the Dodgers for upper minors infielder Jacob Amaya and named Wendle their new starting shortstop. First baseman Garrett Cooper was the only Miami infielder to start at the same position on Opening Day for the second straight season.

Any time a team makes that many moves, there are going to be mixed results. The contrast in the Marlins’ infield is particularly stark, though. Arraez has been everything the Fish could’ve hoped for. He’s well on his way to another batting title, with a .378/.431/.461 line that more than compensates for concerns about his defensive chops at second base. The rest of the group has not performed up to expectations. There’s no greater question mark than Segura, who has been the worst everyday player in the majors.

The veteran infielder owns a .190/.259/.234 slash over his first 225 plate appearances in South Florida. While Segura has never been a prototypical power threat, he’s reached double digit homers in each of the last six full seasons. This year, he’s connected on just one longball. Among hitters with 200+ plate appearances, Segura has easily the lowest slugging percentage. (Alex Call is second from the bottom at .295.) He’s also last in on-base percentage and tops only Nick Maton and Kyle Schwarber in batting average.

That’s disastrous offense, and Miami’s gamble in moving Segura to a position with which he’s not familiar hasn’t panned out on that side of the ball either. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as five runs worse than the average third baseman through just over 500 innings. Statcast isn’t quite so harsh but has him two runs below par.

Combining league-worst hitting and below-average defense has Segura well below replacement level thus far. He’ll almost certainly improve his production. It’s hard to get any worse than his current line, and Segura’s pre-2023 track record was that of a solid regular. A .224 average on balls in play calls for some positive regression, so he should at least start hitting for a better average.

The complete lack of extra-base impact is a serious concern, however. Solid as the season has gone overall, Miami still isn’t an imposing offensive club.

Playing half their games in cavernous loanDepot Park admittedly isn’t doing the lineup any favors. Miami’s offseason focus was about improving the run production, though, trying to add more balance to a club that skewed so heavily to pitching and defense last year. Many of their moves actively weakened the run prevention to increase scoring. They relinquished López to bring in Arraez, moving Segura and Chisholm off their standard second base positions in the process. They parted with Rojas — a light-hitting, plus defensive shortstop — to shoehorn Wendle into the lineup at a position he’d never played regularly.

The offense is better, but not dramatically so. They’re tied for 25h in runs scored, 22nd in home runs, 18th in on-base percentage (.318) and 19th in slugging (.397). The Fish respectively finished in 28th, 24th, 27th and 28th in those categories last season. Arraez has driven the on-base jump, while the power spike is attributable to scorching starts from holdover outfielders Jorge Soler and Jesús Sánchez. Even with Arraez flirting with a .400 clip for a while, Miami’s infield has a bland .269/.326/.361 slash. As measured by wRC+, they’re 23rd in offensive production from their infielders.

Miami has weathered that so far. That’s in large part to a 17-5 record in one-run contests, allowing them to overcome a -30 run differential that’s above only those of the Rockies and Nationals in the Senior Circuit. The Fish aren’t going to apologize for those wins. They’re in the books, and they put the club right in the thick of a muddled NL playoff picture. Yet that kind of success in close games isn’t something Miami can bank on continuing all year. They’ll need the lineup to improve if they’re to ward off that regression.

Some of that will happen organically. Chisholm has been out a month with a foot injury. Ng recently told Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post on their podcast that he’s likely still several weeks away, but a second-half return should be a boon to the offense. Cooper is a better hitter than this year’s .229/.268/.408 line would indicate. Sánchez is playing regularly now after missing a few weeks in May due to injury.

They’ll need to support that at the deadline, likely by bringing in a left side infielder. Curtailing Segura’s playing time a few months into a two-year, $17MM contract would be a tough pill to swallow, but it might be necessary for a team trying to hang onto a playoff spot.

Players like Jeimer Candelario, Jace Peterson and Patrick Wisdom should be available at the hot corner. There are fewer options at shortstop, though the White Sox could move Tim Anderson and the Cardinals would probably deal Paul DeJong. None of those players can carry a lineup (perhaps unless Anderson bounces back from a tough start), but they’d each provide manager Skip Schumaker some alternatives to continuing to plug Segura in every day.

This deadline season should be an exciting one for Marlins fans. Unless things fall apart within the next six weeks, they’re in position to add in hopes of bolstering a playoff push. Two decades removed from their most recent berth in a 162-game season, the front office shouldn’t hesitate to be aggressive, even if that means making the tough call to bench their biggest free agent pickup of this past offseason.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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