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Health Notes: Mets, Moreland, Phillies, Blackmon

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A few notable health updates from around the majors…

  • The Mets activated infielder/outfielder Jeff McNeil from the 10-day injured list Tuesday. Both McNeil (hamstring strain) and Robinson Cano (quad strain) went to the shelf May 23, though the latter’s return date remains “to be determined,” ESPN.com writes. Unlike Cano, who’s amid a tough first season with the Mets, McNeil has thrived in 2019. The contact-hitting 27-year-old has slashed .329/.412/.453 with 16 unintentional walks and 22 strikeouts in 194 plate appearances.
  • Red Sox first baseman Mitch Moreland could come off the IL as early as Friday, according to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. The lefty-swinging Moreland was put on the list May 29 because of a lower back strain, temporarily halting a powerful start to the season for the 33-year-old. Moreland’s a .228/.320/.550 hitter (121 wRC+) with a Red Sox-best 13 home runs and a team high isolated power mark (.322) through 172 trips to the plate.
  • Phillies right-hander Zach Eflin is set for a quick return after landing on the IL on May 31. Eflin, who has been down with mid-back tightness, will start for Philadelphia on Friday, Matt Gelb of The Athletic tweets. Eflin posted an impressive 3.02 ERA and walked fewer than two per nine in 11 starts and 65 2/3 innings before his IL placement. At the same time, though, he struck out fewer than seven per nine and put up a mediocre 4.34 FIP.
  • Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon could begin a rehab assignment Wednesday, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. Blackmon last played May 23 because of a right calf problem. Even though he’s one of their cornerstones, the Rockies have stormed to a 9-2 record without Blackmon.

NL East Notes: Nationals, Phillies, Bruce, Cano, Smith

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As the Nationals try to claw their way back into contention in the NL East, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post writes that the team’s lackluster draft results in recent years have been a notable factor in their current struggles. From 2011-15, Anthony Rendon is the lone, established impact player the team managed to draft and develop into a star, and there have only been 18 Nationals draftees to reach the Majors (with any team) in that span — tied for second-fewest in MLB. Looking at those 2011-15 drafts, only four players selected by Washington have more than one career WAR, and those results include the since-traded Lucas Giolito and Nick Pivetta. The Nats have had better success on the international market (Victor Robles, Juan Soto), but Svrluga notes that an organization built on scouting needs to get back to finding more impactful talent in the draft if it hopes to continue its run as a near-regular NL East contender. It’s a well-researched piece that any Nationals fan will want to take in in its entirety.

More from the division…

  • This weekend’s Jay Bruce trade is the first of what figure to be multiple deals made by the Phillies between now and July 31, general manager Matt Klentak implied following the completion of the swap (link via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). Philadelphia’s outfield depth has compromised early in the year, but Bruce will give them some coverage at either corner spot and can be a backup option for Rhys Hoskins (or a replacement in the event of an injury). “He’s excited to come to a contending team and understands that for the next year and a half there may be times when he’s playing regularly and there may be times when he’s playing off the bench,” said Klentak of Bruce. The Phillies, per Zolecki, are paying only $2.75MM of what remains on Bruce’s contract between now and the end of the 2020 season.
  • The Mets won’t activate Robinson Cano from the injured list until “at least” Tuesday, tweets Mike Puma of the New York Post. Out since May 23 due to a strained quadriceps, Cano was eligible to be activated for either Saturday or Sunday’s contest but was not reinstated. He’s struggled in his return to New York City, hitting .241/.287/.371 with three homers and 13 doubles while logging a career-worst 19.9 percent strikeout rate as a member of the Mets.
  • Newsday’s Tim Healey tweets that Mets fist baseman/outfielder Dominic Smith is headed for an MRI after hyperextending his right thumb on a swing in Saturday night’s game. Smith doesn’t feel it’s a major issue — he ripped a home run even after incurring the injury — but will still be checked out to ensure that there’s no serious damage. The 23-year-old has been red hot for the Mets in a limited role this year, hitting .365/.467/.571 with three homers and four doubles in just 75 plate appearances through 48 games.

Checking In On Last Year’s Toughest Outs

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If you’re an offensive player in baseball, there is nothing more important than avoiding outs. Common sense indicates the more you get on base – whether with a hit, a walk or a hit by a pitch – the better your team’s chances are of scoring and ultimately winning. That’s why on-base percentage is more useful than batting average or slugging percentage, two other conventional stats that help define a hitter’s value.

Just six qualified hitters reached the .400-OBP mark in 2018.  The group included the best player in baseball, another potential Hall of Famer, each league’s MVP, an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship and a potential star in the making. Let’s take a look at how that six-man club is doing in 2019…

Mike Trout, Angels (2018 OBP: .460):

Here’s the “best player in baseball” mentioned above. The 27-year-old Trout has reached 45.5 percent of the time through 231 plate appearances, putting him right in line with last year’s league-best effort. He’s also on track for his fifth straight season with at least a .400 OBP. Trout was a .312 hitter in 2018 who walked 20.4 percent of the time. His average has noticeably dropped (to .283), but his walk rate is up a bit and opposing pitchers have helped Trout’s cause by already hitting him six times. He wore 10 pitches last year in 378 more PA.

Mookie Betts, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .438):

Betts got on base a bit less than Trout last season, but the Boston superstar led the sport in fWAR en route to AL MVP honors. While Betts hasn’t been quite as sharp this year, he has still avoided outs at a phenomenal clip (.400 in 255 trips to the plate). The 26-year-old has walked 14-plus percent of the time for the second consecutive season, but a 55-point decline in batting average (.346 to .291) and a 54-point BABIP drop (.368 to .314) have hurt his OBP. Plus, Betts isn’t on pace to match the eight HBPs he totaled in 2018, having picked up only two so far.

Joey Votto, Reds (2018 OBP: .417):

Votto’s the “potential Hall of Famer” named in the opening. The hitting savant has managed a remarkable .424 OBP dating back to his 2007 debut, in part because he has drawn nearly as many walks as strikeouts. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2019. Now in his age-35 season, Votto’s walk rate is at a pedestrian-by-his-standards 11.6 percent – down nearly 5 points from his career mark –  while his strikeouts have soared. Putting the ball in play less helps explain why Votto, a lifetime .309 hitter, has only mustered a .242 average this season. Worse, Statcast credits Votto with a .229 expected average, indicating a rebound may not be on the way. Despite his newfound woes, Votto has still put up an above-average .340 OBP in 215 PA this year, but it’s nothing to get excited about in the venerable first baseman’s case.

Brandon Nimmo, Mets (2018 OBP: .404):

Nimmo’s far and away the least accomplished member of this list, but that doesn’t take away that the 26-year-old was a stupendous offensive player in 2018. As only a .264 hitter, though, his high OBP came thanks in part to a league-leading 22 HBPs over 433 PA. Nimmo has not been a magnet for pitches this year, however, having taken three in 130 trips to the plate. He’s also batting a mere .200 and has seen his BABIP fall from .351 to .288. Nimmo is collecting walks at a terrific clip (16.1 percent), but his .344 OBP is still a 60-point drop-off from last season.

Christian Yelich, Brewers (2018 OBP: .402):

We arrive at the other MVP on this list. What’s Yelich, 26, doing for an encore? Well, he ranks third in the majors in OBP (.425), in part because his walk rate has climbed from 10.4 percent to 15.1. Yelich has also logged a .314 average even though his BABIP has sunk 87 points since last year.

J.D. Martinez, Red Sox (2018 OBP: .402):

Martinez, described above as “an elite hitter who helped his team to a championship,” has been closer to very good than great this season. A .375 BABIP/.330 average helped drive Martinez’s OBP last season, but he’s at .315/.298 in those categories through 219 PA this season. Consequently, the 31-year-old has “only” reached base 37.9 percent of the time. But Martinez is striking out a lot less, which bodes well, and Statcast puts his expected average at .321. Another .400-OBP season certainly isn’t out of the question for Martinez.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mets Notes: Potential Sellers, Alonso, Lugo

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The latest out of Queens…

  • The Mets started 2019 in solid fashion, sitting a season-high five games over .500 through 13 contests, but have stumbled over the past month and a half. Now in possession of a 27-28 record, the Mets should consider an aggressive teardown if they’re not in contention around the July 31 trade deadline, Buster Olney of ESPN opines. By going in that direction, Olney notes the Mets would mimic the 2015 Padres – a team that tried to contend, wound up failing miserably and then traded away several big-name acquisitions within the next year (Craig Kimbrel, Justin Upton and James Shields among them). San Diego general manager A.J. Preller’s decision to pivot toward a rebuild helped the Padres construct an elite pool of young talent that has begun paying enormous dividends at the major league level. If Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen takes a similar route sometime soon, Olney names closer Edwin Diaz and the right-handed starter trio of Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler as players he could market in an effort to add more high-end youth to the organization.
  • Of course, New York’s not devoid of young, impact talent in the bigs. First baseman Pete Alonso, he of the .264/.338/.624 line (151 wRC+) with 19 home runs in 222 plate appearances, is a testament to that. The 23-year-old may be on his way to top rookie honors in the National League, but his journey to the majors wasn’t easy, as Tim Britton of The Athletic details. Alonso first joined the organization as the 64th pick of the 2016 draft, and Britton – with help from Alonso, his father and multiple Mets scouts – revisits that event and many other moments that led to it.
  • The Mets are likely to activate reliever Seth Lugo from the 10-day injured list Friday, Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News suggests. Lugo went to the IL on May 20 with right shoulder tendinitis, which has left New York’s disappointing bullpen without arguably its best setup man. The 29-year-old Lugo, a former starter, broke out as a late-game force in 2018 and has since pitched to a 2.30 ERA/2.97 FIP with 8.73 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 and a 47.3 percent groundball rate in 78 1/3 relief innings.

Last Season’s 2 Best Closers Have Fallen Off

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Right-handers Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen were unquestionably the two best closers in baseball in 2018. And unless you want to make an argument for dominant Brewers lefty Josh Hader, Diaz and Treinen were likely the game’s top two relievers period. However, a couple months into the 2019 season, they’re no longer running roughshod over their competition.

In what proved to be his final season in Seattle, where he burst on the scene in 2016, Diaz tossed 73 1/3 innings and notched a 1.96 ERA/1.61 FIP with an eye-popping 57 saves in 61 attempts. Along the way, the flamethrower ranked fourth among relievers in K/9 (15.22) and 15th in BB/9 (2.09), leading to the league’s fourth-best K/BB ratio (7.29). He also trailed only Hader in swinging-strike percentage (18.9).

Despite Diaz’s incredible performance, the retooling Mariners deemed him expendable in the offseason. Seattle sent the 25-year-old to the Mets in an earth-shattering December trade that saved the M’s a ton of money and improved their farm system.

No doubt, the Mets expected Diaz to be the driving force behind a much-improved bullpen in 2019. To this point of the season, Diaz has perhaps been the Mets’ premier late-game option, but their bullpen has been a weak unit overall. For his part, the 25-year-old Diaz has been closer to the pitcher he was in 2017, when he was good but not otherworldly.

Diaz’s most recent outing, which came Wednesday against the Dodgers, surely counts among the worst of his career. He entered the game with an 8-5 lead in the bottom of the ninth inning and proceeded to allow six straight base runners amid a stunning collapse. Diaz yielded four earned runs on five hits (two home runs) and an intentional walk in what turned into a 9-8 loss for New York. The only batter he retired, Alex Verdugo, hit the game-winning sacrifice fly. The defeat left Diaz with a 3.22 ERA after he entered it with a 1.64 mark.

It’s easy to look at the shiny ERA Diaz had prior to Wednesday and attribute it to one bad performance. Similarly, it doesn’t take a lot of effort to say his .347 batting average on balls in play has been unlucky. However, the reality is that there are concerns across the board.

Diaz’s FIP (3.99) is up almost a run and a half since last year, while his weighted on-base average/expected wOBA against has risen from .214/.215 to .324/.289. It doesn’t help that Diaz’s strikeout rate has plummeted. After fanning 44.3 percent of batters in his Seattle swan song, Diaz has fallen to 36.1 in his introduction to New York. Beyond that, Diaz’s swinging-strike, line drive, hard/soft contact and chase rates have also gone in the wrong direction. He’s not keeping the ball on the ground as much either, which has led to newfound home run troubles. Diaz has already given up as many HRs as last season (five) through 51 fewer innings (22 1/3), and he’s now halfway to 2018 in blown saves (two).

Treinen, who made good on 38 of 43 attempts in 2018, has joined Diaz in failing on two tries so far this season. The 30-year-old may have been even better than Diaz in ’18, when he compiled a ridiculous 0.78 ERA/1.82 FIP across 80 1/3 innings. Treinen’s strikeout and walk rates (11.2 and 2.35 per nine) were excellent, albeit not as great as Diaz’s, as was his 51.9 percent groundball rate. But Treinen, who has significantly cut back his sinker and slider usage, is at 9.55, 3.95 and 40.3 in those categories this season. Meanwhile, Treinen’s ERA/FIP is up to 3.62/3.87 and his wOBA/xwOBA against has shot from .187/.214 to .313/.298.

What are some of the factors behind Treinen’s drop-off? Well, the .230 BABIP batters logged against him a year ago has moved to a more reasonable .306. At the same time, he’s not stranding as many base runners, having gone from an 85.9 percent left-on-base rate to 79.9. Furthermore, the right-hander is generating fewer swinging strikes, getting fewer out-of-zone swings and giving up more hard contact than he did last season. With that in mind, it’s no surprise that Treinen, like Diaz, has had more difficulty keeping the ball in the park. Just two balls left the yard then against Treinen, who has allowed three through 27 1/3 innings in 2019.

While Diaz and Treinen have recorded disappointing numbers this season, the letdown is largely as a result of the utter brilliance they displayed last year. Any team in the majors would still take either hurler, though their current clubs – both of which are playoff hopefuls – may need more from them if they’re going to earn postseason bids.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Outrights: Mets, Marlins, Pirates

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A few outrights from Wednesday…

  • Mets outfielder Rajai Davis has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Syracuse, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets. The 38-year-old Davis, whom the Mets designated for assignment Sunday, had the option of declaring free agency instead of remaining with the organization. But Davis will head back to Syracuse, his home for nearly the entire season thus far.
  • The Marlins have outrighted outfielder Isaac Galloway to Triple-A New Orleans, per the MLB.com transactions page. The club designated Galloway last Friday. The 29-year-old has been outrighted in the past, meaning he has the right to elect free agency this time. It appears Galloway will remain in the organization, though. Galloway logged 54 plate appearances with this year’s Marlins before they cut him, limping to a .167/.167/.185 line with no home runs, no walks and 17 strikeouts. Galloway also hasn’t produced much this season in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, where he has hit .227/.261/.515 (78 wRC+) in 70 trips to the plate.
  • The Pirates have sent infielder Jake Elmore outright to Triple-A Indianapolis (also via MLB.com). He, like Galloway, has been outrighted in the past. Elmore has been terrific this year in Indianapolis, having slashed .380/.444/.546 in 124 attempts, but wasn’t able to carry that success to Pittsburgh. The 31-year-old managed one hit and no walks in 20 PA before the Pirates designated him Sunday.

Rajai Davis Clears Waivers

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May 28: Davis went unclaimed on waivers, per Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports (Twitter link). He’d have the option to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency if he chooses.

May 26: The Mets have designated outfielder Rajai Davis for assignment, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets. His 25-man roster spot will go to outfielder Michael Conforto, who’s back after a stint on the seven-day concussion injured list.

This marks a quick and unceremonious end to Davis’ time on the Mets’ 40-man roster, though they’re hopeful he’ll stay in the organization, per DiComo. New York selected Davis from Triple-A Syracuse on Wednesday, and the 38-year-old went on to belt a three-run home run in his first plate appearance with the team that night – a 6-1 win over the Nationals. Davis totaled another six trips to the plate in his ensuing three appearances, collecting one hit.

Davis’ bat has never been his main selling point, as he has largely mustered below-average offense across several stops since his major league career began in 2006. But Davis has often been an asset as a defender and especially as a base runner, having picked up 415 stolen bases in the majors. Despite his age, Davis has continued to show off his speed at Syracuse this season with 14 steals, and he’s only a year removed from swiping 21 bags with the Indians.

While it’s unfortunate for Davis that he’s entering DFA limbo, swapping him for Conforto is a massive upgrade for the Mets. Conforto batted a tremendous .271/.406/.521 (150 wRC+) with nine HRs in 180 PA before going on the IL. It proved to be a short absence for the 26-year-old Conforto, whose return is especially important to a Mets team that has recently lost notable offensive pieces Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo and Robinson Cano to injuries.

Sean Burnett Announces Retirement

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Veteran left-handed reliever Sean Burnett has announced his retirement from baseball in a lengthy, heartfelt statement via the New York Post’s Ken Davidoff (Twitter links). The 36-year-old southpaw had been pitching for the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate before deciding to call it career.

Burnett last saw big league action with the Nationals in 2016 — one of many comeback attempts from a clearly talented pitcher whose promising career was decimated by injuries. As Burnett notes in his statement, he underwent four different surgeries — two of them Tommy John procedures — over a professional career that spanned parts of 19 seasons.

Originally selected by the Pirates with the No. 19 overall pick in 2000, Burnett was regarded as one of the game’s pitching prospects prior to his MLB debut, twice landing on Baseball America’s Top 100 list (including a No. 25 placement in 2003). His rookie campaign in 2004 was rough around the edges, as evidenced by a 5.02 ERA in 71 2/3 innings, but Burnett also showcased his upside with a complete-game shutout in just his sixth career start. The fact that said shutout took place in Montreal against the Expos is a testament to the length of Burnett’s career and the tireless effort he put into striving to return from the injury woes he faced.

Arm troubles shelved Burnett for the entire 2005 season, and he wouldn’t make it back to a big league mound until 2008, at which point he’d transitioned to a relief role on a full-time basis. He was eventually traded from the Pirates to the Nationals, alongside Nyjer Morgan, in the deal that sent Joel Hanrahan and Lastings Milledge to Pittsburgh. Burnett was already throwing well at the time of the swap but stepped up his game over the next three and a half seasons in D.C., working to a combined 2.81 ERA and handling plenty of high-leverage spots ( 71 holds, 10 saves).

That strong run led Burnett to ink a two-year, $8MM contract with the Angels in free agency. Unfortunately for both Burnett and the Halos, he pitched just 10 1/3 innings over the life of that contract due to one of the aforementioned Tommy John procedures. From that point forth, Burnett battled myriad health issues as signed numerous minor league deals in an effort to return to the big leagues — a goal he achieved in that brief 2016 showing with the Nationals.

All in all, Burnett’s career will come to a close with a 3.52 ERA in 378 1/3 innings of work at the MLB level, though on can only wonder what type of success he might’ve had with better health. That said, the majority of fans and players alike would be thrilled to appear in 380 Major League games, toss a shutout, collect 91 holds and 10 saves, and earn a bit north of $13MM in salary along the way. In addition to his time with the Pirates, Nats and Angels, Burnett also pitched in the minor league ranks for the Mets, Twins, Marlins, Dodgers and Braves (plus the Phillies in Spring Training 2017). Best wishes to the lefty in his post-playing endeavors.

Minor MLB Transacations: 5/26/19

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Here are the latest minor moves from the baseball world…

  • The Blue Jays outrighted left-handed pitcher Ryan Feierabend to Triple-A, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. The knuckleballer cleared waivers after he was designated by Toronto on Friday. In two outings for the Blue Jays, including one start, Feierabend was largely ineffective, conceding seven runs in 5 2/3 innings, including two home runs.
  • Mets relievers Paul Sewald and Tim Peterson, each of whom was designated for assignment, have also cleared waivers and were outrighted to Triple-A, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Control was an issue for Peterson, who walked six batters in his five appearances. Sewald misses a decent amount of bats, but is the owner of a mediocre 5.18 career ERA.
  • The Tigers claimed 32-year-old right-handed pitcher Austin Adams, who had been designated by the Twins. According to Evan Woodbery of MLive Media Group, Adams was subsequently placed on the active roster, replacing left-handed pitcher Matt Hall, who was optioned today after spending just one day with the Major League club.

Mets Injury Notes: Nimmo, Conforto, Lowrie

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The latest from Flushing Meadows . . .

  • Brandon Nimmo’s neck injury – initially described by the club as “stiff” and “inflamed” – is actually far graver, relays MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. The 26-year-old is suffering from a bulging cervical disc that’s “pushing” on a nerve in his neck, and he’s also dealing with the aftermath of whiplash, presumably suffered during a collision with the center-field wall in an April 14 game vs. Atlanta. Nimmo is “relieved” to have been issued a firm diagnosis, though there’s currently no timetable for his return. It’s a been rough ’19 go for the Wyoming-born outfielder, who’s slumped to a .200/.344/.323 line over 161 plate appearances thus far. The former first-rounder has maintained his sky-high walk rates from the two seasons prior, though – his 16.1% mark currently ranks tenth among all MLB regulars – so the slow start could simply be a function of poor balls-in-play luck, or the vagaries of small-sample baseball at large.
  • DiComo also provides an update on the concussed Michael Conforto, he of the staunch .271/.406/.521 line thus far, who appears set to return before Sunday’s game against Detroit. It’s a huge sigh of relief for an organization in desperate need of some left-handed thump, and one that seemed unlikely to transpire so soon. Perhaps the league’s most underrated hitter, Conforto has followed up a sizzling second half last season with a top-20 wRC+ in the first two months thus far. He’s upped his walk rate to a career-best 16.7% (good for 6th in MLB) and slashed his K rate over 3%, to a quite respectable (and below league-average) 21.7%. The 26-year-old has had periodic issue with staying healthy, but a full season on the field at this pace should place the former first-rounder right in line with the league’s elite.
  • Infielder Jed Lowrie is still “a ways away,” per manager Mickey Callaway (h/t to the New York Post’s Mike Puma). The 35-year-old, who signed a two-year, $20MM pact with New York in the offseason, has long been beset by injuries of various type throughout his 12-year big-league career. Ailments cut short each of his 2009, ’10, ’11, ’12, ’15, and ’16 seasons, and there appears to be no concrete timetable for his return in ’19. Lowrie’s on the heels of back-to-back excellent seasons with Oakland, though the aging curve is especially cruel for second basemen, and doubly so when they’ve accumulated a host of lower-body maladies over the the course of a career.
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