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Tendering A Contract To Matt Harvey

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As part of our ongoing MLBTR Mailbag series, we’ve decided to begin branching off frequent topics of interest and expanding upon them at greater length than we’d normally spend in one post that answers four to six separate questions. This will be the first of several such posts to follow in the new format, and you can submit questions for consideration here via email: mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com.

Why would the Mets not non-tender Matt Harvey? Are 7.00-ERA pitchers with upside really that hard to find? Or is there an emotional/attachment thing going on? — Josh M.

Josh isn’t the only person with this sentiment — especially based on the comments in the wake of GM Sandy Alderson’s suggestion that the Mets will indeed tender a contract to Harvey this winter.

The frustration that Mets fans feel with the performance of the former “Dark Knight” and Harvey’s own frustration (which he’s voiced on multiple occasions) are understandable. To borrow from Harvey’s own blunt self-evaluation, he’s been “terrible all the way around” in 2017 — his first season back from surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome last summer. That operation was the second major surgery in Harvey’s career, as he also had Tommy John surgery following the 2013 campaign.

The attrition rate following TOS surgery seems to be greater than after Tommy John surgery, and Harvey is one of the only pitchers in recent memory to have both operations in such close proximity. Viewed through that lens, this season’s 6.60 ERA through 88 2/3 innings perhaps shouldn’t be all that surprising. Harvey has been working with diminished velocity (though it’s been trending up lately) and has posted career-worst K/9 (6.5) and BB/9 (4.5) marks while averaging 2.03 HR/9. It has not, to put it mildly, been a very good season.

That said, it’s been just two years since Harvey came back from TJS to throw 189 1/3 innings in the regular season with a 2.71 ERA, 8.9 K/9, 1.8 BB/9 and a 46 percent ground-ball rate. Harvey further rose to the occasion with 26 2/3 innings of 3.04 ERA ball in the postseason (though Mets fans will forever debate Terry Collins’ decision to leave him in for the ninth inning of a Game 5 against the Royals). Simply put, from 2012-15, Harvey was one of the best young pitchers on the planet. Even his 2016 season, which ended with a disappointing 4.86 ERA and his eventual TOS procedure, featured solid K/BB numbers and a 3.47 FIP.

To the greater point here, it is indeed possible to find passable arms at bargain one-year rates in free agency. However, Harvey is in for at best a modest raise on this season’s $5.125MM salary. Looking back over the past few offseasons, the free agent starters that have signed one-year deals worth less than $6MM include: Clayton Richard, Jhoulys Chacin, Jered Weaver, Trevor Cahill, Tommy Milone, Jesse Chavez, Mat Latos, Tim Lincecum (mid-season in 2016), Henderson Alvarez, Brandon Beachy, Bud Norris and Aaron Harang. Weaver was 34 when he signed his deal (and retired partway through the 2017 season). One could argue that Lincecum or perhaps Beachy carried significant upside, but both were returning from serious injuries, were older than Harvey and were further removed from success than Harvey is now.

Last offseason, Derek Holland signed a one-year, $6MM contract with the White Sox after throwing a combined 203 innings from 2013-16. With all due respect to Holland, his upside isn’t on par with that of Harvey. Meanwhile, Tyson Ross also signed for one year and $6MM after undergoing his own TOS surgery. If Ross was able to find $6MM on the heels of a season he spent entirely on the DL — his lone appearance in 2016 came on Opening Day — that should be an indication that paying a younger Harvey at a roughly comparable rate isn’t exactly an overpay by market standards.

Moreover, if the 2017 season proved anything, it’s that the Mets need to stockpile as many reasonably priced arms and rotation depth options as possible. With injuries to Harvey, Steven Matz, Noah Syndergaard, Seth Lugo, Zack Wheeler and Robert Gsellman impacting the staff at various points throughout the season, it doesn’t seem prudent to be cutting ties with a fairly inexpensive young arm. If anything, the Mets will probably aim to bring in some low-cost veterans on minor league deals that could be stashed at Triple-A and emerge as big league options in 2018 should their injury issues persist.

Michael Conforto Not A Lock To Return By Opening Day 2018

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  • Mets outfielder Michael Conforto suggested Saturday that he’s unsure if he’ll be able to slot into the team’s lineup on Opening Day next year, according to James Wagner of the New York Times (Twitter link). Conforto suffered a torn capsule in his left shoulder in late August, ending his season, and then underwent surgery earlier this month. The 24-year-old noted that the procedure should help stave off future shoulder dislocations, which would certainly be optimal for him and the Mets. Conforto emerged as a breakout performer and one of the few bright spots for the woebegone Mets before the injury, hitting .279/.384/.555 with 27 home runs in 440 plate appearances. Mets general manager Sandy Alderson said on the heels of Conforto’s surgery that the club’s optimistic he won’t have to alter his swing upon returning. He’s roughly six months away from resuming baseball activities.

Mets Interested In Speaking To Brad Ausmus

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  • Brad Ausmus won’t be returning as the Tigers’ manager next year, though Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com reports that some in the Mets front office are interested in speaking with Ausmus.  New York has also been rumored to be making a managerial change, and will likely look into several different candidates if it does indeed move on from the Terry Collins era.  It’s also possible that the Mets’ interest in Ausmus may not necessarily involve managing; Ausmus also worked as a special assistant in the Padres’ baseball ops department before taking the Tigers job.

Latest On Mets’ Plans For Sandy Alderson, Terry Collins

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The Mets will attempt to work out a new contract with general manager Sandy Alderson to keep him for 2018 and (presumably) beyond, according to a report from Kristie Ackert. The fate of manager Terry Collins, though, is less clear — with signs suggesting it’s not expected he’ll be back.

Contracts for both organizational leaders are up at the end of the year. The pair has been in charge since the start of the 2011 campaign, overseeing a rise and then sudden collapse in the team’s competitiveness. While the hope remains that the roster will spring back to life in 2018, it seems that Alderson will be looking for a new manager to lead the troops.

Alderson himself declined to comment on the managerial situation. But Ackert cites team sources that suggest there’s an internal expectation that Collins will retire. Per the report, the Mets have already begun thinking of alternatives to the veteran skipper — Ackert runs through a few notable names at the link — even if Collins himself may not quite be ready to hang ’em up on his own volition.

Many have speculated that 2017 could be the last run for Collins, who is 68 years of age, though few saw the season going the way it has. The Mets went to the World Series in 2015 and overcame challenges to reach the postseason last year as well. But a series of devastating injuries robbed the 2017 team of any hopes of repeating.

There’s no reasonable way that Collins could have reversed that course by himself, though (like all managers) he has had his share of detractors over the years. The organization may well prefer an alternative, though, regardless of Collins’s own intentions. Ackert says that the club would like to find a newcomer that is “more technologically savvy and more fluent in analytics and sabermetrics.”

While the Mets will no doubt focus in on this important decision, it’s just one of many facing the organization. Soon after the end of the season, decisions are due on Asdrubal Cabrera and Jerry Blevins. The Mets have a lot of payroll space but also quite a few roster needs — along with a long list of medical unknowns in the rotation.

Sandy Alderson Suggests Mets Will Likely Retain Matt Harvey For 2018

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Despite the increasingly worrying health issues and pitching struggles of former Mets ace Matt Harvey, the club isn’t ready to give up on his talent. As GM Sandy Alderson tells Mike Puma of the New York Post, “it’s high unlikely that we’re not going to bring [Harvey] back next year.”

Harvey is still just 28 years old and isn’t far removed from being one of the game’s most dominant starters. If there was concern when he limped to a 4.86 ERA in 17 starts last year, though, it’s all the more pressing now that he has surrendered 6.59 earned per nine through the same number of outings in the current season.

The enigmatic righty has averaged less than five frames per start while managing only 6.6 K/9 against an uncharacteristic 4.5 BB/9. He has seen his velocity waver over the course of the season (with an average that’s down one mph from last year and two mph from the prior season). And his swinging-strike rate has plummeted to 7.5% and yet more arm problems have arisen during the year.

Despite all that, New York evidently sees value in tendering Harvey a contract in his final year of arbitration eligibility. And that’s really not surprising. Harvey will get at least a marginal raise on this year’s $5.125MM arb salary, but the bill will remain well within range of the one-year guarantees that other interesting bounceback type pitchers command in free agency.

While there’s some risk in paying Harvey, notes Puma, there’s probably even greater risk to the front office if it lets him find his form elsewhere. And it isn’t as if the team can’t use the possible innings that Harvey will be expected to provide; talent and uncertainty abound in the rest of the staff, too.

For now, Alderson says, the club will “keep running him out there and see what happens.” It seems that’ll be the approach in 2018 as well — so long as the Mets don’t find a surprise trade and Harvey shows enough promise in camp that he isn’t cut loose to avoid fully guaranteeing his arb payout.

Latest On Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard

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Mets righty Matt Harvey turned in another abysmal start last night, leaving him with a 13.19 ERA in his four outings since returning from the DL. As Marc Carig of Newsday writes, Harvey seemed rather dejected after the game, calling his work “terrible all the way around” — though, perhaps, there’s at least some cause for hope in the fact that he is working in the mid-nineties with his fastball. Of course, that’s hardly sufficient in and of itself, and the results have been sobering. “Everybody’s watching,” said Harvey. “I don’t really know what there is to say except for there is nothing to say. It’s terrible. It’s not fun. There’s really nothing to say. There’s no reason for questions. There’s no answers.”

  • Meanwhile, the Mets are still waiting to see just how fellow righty Noah Syndergaard will look when he returns to the majors after a long layoff for a partial lat tear. As Mike Puma of the New York Post reports, though, it’s likely at this point that Syndergaard will only be allowed to make two appearances. It had been hoped at one point that he’d be able to make a much more significant return to end the year, but the club has understandably exercised caution. The young ace, after all, is a critically important member of a pitching staff that possesses many questions heading into the offseason.

Plawecki's Improved Play Impressing Mets

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  • Kevin Plawecki’s improved play in Triple-A made the Mets feel comfortable letting Rene Rivera go on a waiver claim to the Cubs last month, writes Mike Puma of the New York Post, and his solid production in the Majors now leaves him feeling less concerned about losing his roster spot. The 26-year-old admitted to pressing too much in the past to “try to make some things happen” but said he’s in a different mental state this time around. “[W]hat has been different this time is just trusting what I have been doing all season [in Triple-A] and not having that thought in the back of my head, ‘How long am I going to be here and how big of a window do I have to prove myself?’” Mets GM Sandy Alderson has previously suggested that the Mets are unlikely to pursue catching upgrades this winter, meaning Plawecki and Travis d’Arnaud figure to play prominent roles with the 2018 club. Since being recalled from Triple-A, Plawecki is hitting .283/.387/.482 in 17 games.

Would The Mets Do The Yoenis Cespedes Contract Again?

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  • Less than a year after the Yankees and Mets signed Aroldis Chapman and Yoenis Cespedes to multi-year free agent deals, Joel Sherman of the New York Post doubts either team would make those signings again given how both stars underachieved in 2017.  Injuries played a part in both players’ performance, of course, and there is still lots of time for Chapman and Cespedes to deliver on their contracts.  In Chapman’s case, his relative struggles also haven’t kept the Yankees from leading the AL wild card race.  With Chapman owed $60MM through the 2021 season, however, it’s still an ominous sign for the Yankees that this down year came in the first season of that deal.

Mets Notes: Syndergaard, Vogelsong

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  • The Mets have some reservations about using ace Noah Syndergaard again this year, Matt Ehalt of The Record reports (on Twitter). Unsurprisingly, if Syndergaard does return in 2017, the Mets will need to be convinced he’s at full strength. The flamethrowing superstar hasn’t pitched in the majors since April 30 because of a torn right lat, and while he has been working his way back recently, there’s not exactly a need for the out-of-contention Mets to deploy him again this season.
  • Newly retired right-hander Ryan Vogelsong could have continued his career after Minnesota released him in March, but he told Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle and other reporters that he “checked out mentally” after the Twins cut him (Twitter links here). Vogelsong received minor league offers earlier this season, including from the Mets, but he didn’t want to move his family to Las Vegas – the home of their Triple-A affiliate.

Three Needs: New York Mets

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This is the latest edition in MLBTR’s Three Needs series. Read versions on the Tigers, Reds, Pirates and Giants.

Fresh off back-to-back playoff seasons, the Mets entered 2017 with championship aspirations but have instead endured a Murphy’s Law campaign. Injuries and subpar performances have been the norm this year for the Mets, who have limped to a 63-84 record and have allowed 84 more runs than they’ve scored (783 to 679). With the exception of right-hander Jacob deGrom, all of New York’s stars have missed significant time with injuries. Even the Mets’ brightest spot of 2017, breakout outfielder Michael Conforto, couldn’t get through the year unscathed. Conforto suffered a torn left shoulder capsule in August, though the Mets don’t expect it to negatively affect him next season. As the Mets hope Conforto fully recovers from surgery over the next several months, their general manager (be it Sandy Alderson or someone else) will use the offseason to upgrade their roster in the hopes of returning to contention in 2018. Here’s a look at a few things New York could do during the winter…

1.) Add reliable starting pitching:

Ace Noah Syndergaard hasn’t pitched since suffering a torn lat muscle in his right arm on April 30, thus depriving the Mets of one of the game’s elite starters for nearly the entire season. He and deGrom will front the Mets’ rotation next year, though, giving the team an enviable one-two punch and taking pressure off the remainder of the rotation. New York is in dire need of help behind that duo, however, as counting on any other in-house options entering 2018 would be a substantial risk.

Former ace and 2016 thoracic outlet syndrome surgery recipient Matt Harvey’s career has gone off the rails since last season, meaning the Mets will have to decide whether to bring the 28-year-old back in 2018 for his final arbitration-eligible campaign. Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz each endured rough seasons that ended early on account of injuries, which is all the more trouble considering they came into the year with durability questions. And both Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo have taken sizable steps backward since serving as key starters for the Mets in 2016. Rafael Montero, the only other Met to log double-digit starts this season, has been passable (4.83 ERA, 4.09 FIP in 85 2/3 innings), but it’s unclear whether he has done enough to warrant a spot for next year. The soon-to-be 27-year-old won’t have any minor league options remaining when 2018 rolls around.

From 2014-16, the Mets had Bartolo Colon in the fold as someone to provide 30-plus starts of roughly 4.00 ERA ball to complement their top-of-the-rotation arms. They’ve clearly missed that type of starter this season, though the year Colon has had with the Braves and Twins suggests he wouldn’t have been part of the solution anymore for New York. Any of Jhoulys Chacin, Marco Estrada, Doug Fister (whom the Mets courted as a free agent earlier this year) or John Lackey could make sense if the Mets aren’t in big-spending mode on the open market. But if New York is willing to splurge on an expensive starter, Lance Lynn would be a strong fit. Lynn missed 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he has otherwise delivered nothing but quality seasons of 175 or more innings since 2012.

2.) Sort out the infield:

It’s safe to say Amed Rosario, one of the game’s premier prospects, will continue to man shortstop in 2018. Uncertainty abounds everywhere else in the Mets’ infield, including at third base, where injuries have ruined team captain and seven-time All-Star David Wright’s career. Neck, back and shoulder problems have limited the longtime superstar to 75 games since the start of the 2015 season, and he hasn’t played in a major league contest since May 1, 2016. The Mets can’t expect anything out of the 34-year-old going forward, then, especially considering he underwent right rotator cuff surgery earlier this month. Wright is due an astronomical $20MM salary in 2018, but the Mets will save 75 percent of that figure via insurance for as long as he’s on the disabled list.

Wright replacements Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera, Wilmer Flores and T.J. Rivera have been reasonably effective in his stead this year, but it’s no sure thing any will be the answer at third next season. Reyes and Cabrera aren’t even locks to be on the team in 2018, in fact, as the former is a free agent-to-be and the latter has a team option. Barring trades, Flores and Rivera will be back (notably, the latter is recovering from Tommy John surgery), but they’ve never been single-position players. Those two could continue to rotate among third, second and first next year, which, combined with a Cabrera return, would mitigate the need for a major infield acquisition in the offseason. Otherwise, the Mets could conceivably add an established player at any of those spots, depending in part on whether they think rookie first baseman Dominic Smith is already a capable starter. In the aggregate, the 22-year-old hasn’t been all that productive since the Mets promoted him in the first half of August, and he wasn’t a world-class minor league producer. While Smith’s September numbers are gaudy (.300/.375/.620 in 56 plate appearances), an unsustainable batting average on balls in play (.379) and below-average strikeout and walk numbers paint a less rosy picture.

If they’re not content with Smith and/or their other infield options, there should be some reasonably priced potential targets available for the Mets in the offseason. First base types in Yonder Alonso, old friends Lucas Duda and Jay Bruce, and Logan Morrison will be on the market as cheaper alternatives to Eric Hosmer and Carlos Santana. Eduardo Nunez and Todd Frazier lead the way at third behind Mike Moustakas, who may prove to be too expensive for the Mets’ taste. Reds shortstop Zack Cozart could also entice third base-needy teams in free agency, though his lack of durability may scare away a Mets team that has dealt with a deluge of injuries lately. Considering his baserunning prowess, Nunez would be a good fit for New York, which ranks 25th in the majors in FanGraphs’ BsR metric and 29th in steals. Nunez can also play second, where the upcoming free agent class lacks players who are obvious upgrades over what the Mets already have. The same is likely true of the trade market, as the Tigers’ Ian Kinsler and the Dodgers’ Logan Forsythe have underwhelmed this year. The Athletics’ Jed Lowrie has fared well, on the other hand, but injuries have been problematic for him during his career.

3.) Get relief help:

Mets relievers finished 2016 second in the majors in fWAR and sixth in ERA. One year later, they’re 19th and 29th in those categories. There’s currently little in the way of confidence-inspiring in-house options beyond AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins and Jeurys Familia, the latter of whom has been one of many high-profile Mets to suffer through an unexpectedly terrible season, perhaps leaving room for multiple additions. Indeed, the Mets are zeroing in on the bullpen as an area they’ll need to address in the offseason. As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd wrote Wednesday, former Met Addison Reed, Brandon Kintzler, Juan Nicasio, Anthony Swarzak and Pat Neshek could land on the Mets’ radar over the winter. Those are just a handful of many soon-to-be available veteran relievers who would figure to better the team’s late-game situation.

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