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White Sox Sign Dallas Keuchel

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The White Sox have taken their next step toward emerging from a lengthy rebuilding process, announcing Monday that they’ve signed free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel to a three-year deal worth a guaranteed $55.5MM. The Scott Boras client also has a fourth-year club/vesting option. Keuchel, the White Sox revealed, will earn $18MM annually, and the Sox hold a $1.5MM buyout on his 2023 option. His option will reportedly vest at $20MM if he pitches 160 innings in years two and three of the contract. Otherwise, it functions as a traditional club option.

Keuchel’s signing means there’s one less coveted gift to claim beneath the free agency tree for leaguewide GMs, but it should bring a good amount of cheer to South Side fans. The Sox have made a substantial investment in the soon-to-be-32-year-old, but he figures to slot in nicely as a steady, veteran presence in a rotation full of youthful upside.

Keuchel may never again regain the form that saw him capture a Cy Young Award back in 2015 with the Astros. That year saw him ride career-best strikeout and walk rates en route to a 2.48 ERA, but ensuing seasons have seen underlying indicators take a more bearish stance on his value. He hasn’t registered better than a 3.69 FIP since 2016, while his strikeout abilities have generally hovered around the 7.0 K/9 range during that same time frame. Never a hard thrower, Keuchel, a sinkerballer by trade, has seen his two-seamer lose almost two full ticks since registering an average speed of 90 mph back in ’15.

Of all the players to be impacted by last season’s free agency freeze, Keuchel may have been hit the hardest. Regardless of whether teams were scared off by early-offseason demands that may have been too optimistic, or simply wary of his age and declining metrics, it’s still fair to say that few foresaw a pitcher of Keuchel’s pedigree having to settle for a one-year, pro-rated June deal with the Braves that guaranteed him just $13MM. But, after a half-season in Atlanta that saw Keuchel perform to career averages with a 3.75 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.3 K/9 output in 112 2/3 innings, Chicago has finally given the lefty the long-term stability he’s been seeking.

Plus, it’s about time the White Sox proved able to land a higher-end free-agent starter to form a battery with Yasmani Grandal. They were said to be engaged seriously with Zack Wheeler and Jordan Lyles before those pitchers signed deals elsewhere that exceeded most outside expectations. Now, Keuchel provides their righty-heavy young rotation with, at worst, an innings-eating lefty with ample experience playing under the game’s brightest lights. With a beard, big frame, and heavy sinker, fans of the next winning Southside team may be forgiven for confusing Keuchel with ghosts of Mark Buehrle past.

Keuchel and the newly signed Gio Gonzalez promise to provide valuable mentorship to young arms like Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, and the mending Carlos Rodon. Giolito had something of a coming-out party in particular last season, but the truth is that every pitcher in that group may have only scratched the surface of their potential. Rodon’s impending return, in particular, should give the Chicago rotation an absolutely stolid look–it may not be the highest-priced rotation in the bigs, but it certainly is long on ace upside and bulldog mentality.

Speaking of prices: Keuchel’s deal makes him the second-highest-paid player (by average annual value) on the Chicago roster, after Grandal. MLBTR correctly predicted the lefty would land with the White Sox this offseason in our free agent predictions from November, but it seems the Boras Corporation was able to leverage interest in Keuchel well in excess of our expectations, as this deal lands safely above the three-year, $39MM contract we projected him to receive.

In addition to their previous deals with Grandal, Gonzalez, and Jose Abreu, this deal brings Chicago’s guarantees this offseason to $183.5MM in new money–before accounting for option years. Add in the projected $5.7MM award due to newly acquired Nomar Mazara and the Sox have come awfully close to supplementing their young core with $200MM in commitments.

It may not be the blockbuster-level deal Keuchel envisioned entering the 2018-19 offseason, nor is it in the same arena as the deals signed this offseason by Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg or Zack Wheeler. What it seems to be rather, is a good click above deals guaranteed to other “mid-rotation” arms like Kyle Gibson (3/$30MM), Tanner Roark (2/$24MM), or Julio Teheran (1/$9MM) this winter—perhaps fair value considering both Keuchel’s Cy Young past and steady, if unspectacular, recent track record.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the terms (Twitter link). Bob Nightengale of USA Today added details on the vestting option (Twitter link).

Blue Jays Sign Travis Shaw

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The Blue Jays continued what has become an increasingly busy offseason Monday, announcing a one-year deal with free-agent infielder Travis Shaw. The Pro Star Management client will reportedly secure a $4MM guarantee and earn $175K upon tallying 350 plate appearances, with another $125K for every 50 plate appearances accrued thereafter. The deal maxes out at a potential $4.675MM salary if Shaw exceeds 550 plate appearances.

Travis Shaw | Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Brewers non-tendered Shaw earlier this month. It was an eventful couple of weeks on the market for the 29-year-old, who drew some interest from almost half the league. It’s not hard to see the appeal, since Shaw recently looked like a long-term building block in Milwaukee. From 2017-18, Shaw combined for a .258/.347/.497 line (119 wRC+) while playing nearly every day at the hot corner. He hit 30+ home runs in each season while drawing a fair number of walks with a manageable strikeout rate. Over his first two seasons as a Brewer, he was worth 7.1 fWAR.

Of course, the wheels fell of completely in 2019. Shaw stumbled to a ghastly .157/.281/.270 line (47 wRC+) over 270 plate appearances last season. Among those with at least 250 plate appearances, only Mike Zunino was worse at the dish. Shaw continued to draw his share of walks, but his contact rate fell precipitously. Consequently, his strikeout rate almost doubled from 18.4% to 33.0%. The contending Brewers couldn’t afford to let Shaw sink or swim, and they demoted him to Triple-A San Antonio in June.

To his credit, Shaw tore the cover off the ball following his demotion. His .286/.437/.586 slash was eye-opening, even in the hitters’ haven Pacific Coast League. Most importantly, Shaw seemed to get his strikeout troubles under control back in the minors.

Nevertheless, the Brewers elected not to bring Shaw back at his projected $4.7MM arbitration salary in light of his MLB struggles. Milwaukee did offer him a contract of some sort before non-tendering him (presumably for less than his arbitration projection), tweets Jon Heyman of MLB Network, but Shaw decided to seek a change of scenery.

While Shaw falls a bit shy of that $4.7MM projection on his guarantee from the Jays, he has a strong chance at approaching the mark via his incentives. Shaw exceeded 550 plate appearances in each of 2017 and 2018, and he’s in line to start nearly every day at first base next season, tweets Scott Mitchell of TSN. That’ll leave the hot corner to Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. north of the border. Shaw replaces Justin Smoak, who coincidentally signed a very similar one-year, $5MM deal with the Brewers earlier in December.

Whether or not future additions to the lineup are forthcoming, the Jays are betting on a Shaw return to form. Shaw’s plate discipline remains intact and last season’s 88.7 MPH average exit velocity, per Statcast, is right in line with his career marks. Shaw will certainly need to rebound in the contact department. His track record and age, though, give reason for cautious optimism. If Shaw does rediscover his form at the plate, he could return to Toronto in 2021. He has accrued 4.053 years of MLB service, meaning he’ll be arbitration-eligible again next offseason. He’ll certainly hope to enter that process on the heels of a better showing than he put forth in 2019.

Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com first reported the agreement (Twitter links). MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand added the salary terms and incentive structure. 

Marlins To Sign Corey Dickerson

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The Marlins are finalizing a two-year deal with free-agent outfielder Corey Dickerson, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network. The contract will pay the 30-year-old $17.5MM over the next two years, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deal is pending a physical.

In adding Dickerson, the Marlins have done well to fill a big need in the corner outfield, a vacancy they sought to address with one of Dickerson, Kole Calhoun, or Yasiel Puig. With Calhoun latching on with the Diamondbacks, it was reported this morning that the Fish were focusing their efforts on Dickerson rather than Puig, who’s undeniably a bigger name but whose offensive production veered in the wrong direction last year. Dickerson also adds a lefty bat to a lineup that’s otherwise heavy on right-handers; second baseman Isan Diaz is the only other projected starter who’s a true lefty.

Dickerson has a Gold Glove to his name, but if advanced metrics are to be believed, that caliber of performance is the exception, not the rule, with Dickerson, who was credited with saving 16 runs in left field in 2018—in all other years, he’s been worth -14 DRS. His calling card is his above-average offensive output; he’s been pretty consistently good at the plate since 2017, posting a wRC+ of at least 115 (15 percent better than average) in each of the last three seasons.

The addition of Dickerson is the latest in a series of solid additions for a Marlins team that finished with baseball’s third-worst record in 2019. They already nabbed Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar earlier this month, claiming the former on waivers and the trading for the latter after the Orioles designated him for assignment. Veteran catcher Francisco Cervelli, signed last week, is another significant addition. They’re by no means dominating the offseason storylines by bringing in a handful of low-risk players, but these look like savvy acquisitions for a rebuilding club that has now overhauled one-third of its starting lineup.

Targeting the likes of Aguilar, Villar, Cervelli, and Dickerson on short-term contracts does no harm to the Marlins’ long-term financial outlook and figures to only help the team remain competitive in 2020. At the very least, acquisitions like this represent potential trade chips for a club that might still be a couple years away; still, these moves shouldn’t simply be dismissed as such.

Dickerson should slot in as Miami’s everyday left fielder, with Brian Anderson in the other outfield corner. Lewis Brinson might have another crack at the center field job, but he’ll be on a short leash after a rough couple of seasons. Interestingly, Craig Mish of FNTSY Sports even suggests that Villar could be in the mix for that center field position. He’s played the position only sparingly in his career and hasn’t done so in a game since 2017, but few will question whether he has the speed to patrol the spacious outfield of Marlins Park.

Blue Jays Sign Shun Yamaguchi

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TODAY: The Blue Jays’ deal with Yamaguchi is official.  They’ve signed the right-hander to a two-year, $6.35MM deal, per Scott Mitchell of TSN Sports (via Twitter).

3:35pm: There’s a deal in place, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

2:59pm: The Blue Jays appear to be pressing hard to add Japanese hurler Shun Yamaguchi. According to Sanspo.com (Japanese language link), the sides are closing in on a two-year deal that would pay him around $3MM annually if it’s finalized.

If the sides wrap things up, the Toronto organization will owe the Yomiuri Giants twenty percent of the total guarantee as a transfer fee. Japan’s marquee organization formally posted Yamaguchi on December 3rd.

Yamaguchi, a 32-year-old forkballer, has had plenty of success in Japan’s top league as both a starter and reliever. Once a star closer for the Yokohama BayStars, Yamaguchi has more recently taken the ball to open games for Yomiuri. Last year, working from the rotation, he delivered 170 frames of 2.91 ERA ball with 10.0 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9.

It stands to reason that the starter-needy Blue Jays will at least give Yamaguchi a shot at winning a rotation job out of camp. But the club could also certainly be in the market for relief help, so its intentions aren’t yet clear. Odds are the Jays are drawn in no small part to Yamaguchi’s versatility. He has plenty of experience locking up saves in NPB so could even ultimately be called upon in a high-leverage role if the circumstances warrant.

 

Blue Jays Sign Hyun-Jin Ryu

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Two and a half months after GM Ross Atkins vowed to find pitching that could “contribute in significant ways,” the Blue Jays have formally announced the signing of one of the best pitchers on the market, left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, to a four-year contract. The Boras Corporation client will reportedly be guaranteed $80MM, which will be paid out evenly at $20MM per season. Ryu’s deal doesn’t have any opt-out provisions but is said to contain a partial no-trade clause.

The news ends a spirited market for Ryu’s services, as at least six teams (the Dodgers, Angels, Braves, Padres, Cardinals, and Twins) were all known to have some degree of interest in the southpaw this offseason.  While all of those teams were either playoff clubs in 2019 or are planning to contend in 2020, it was the rebuilding Blue Jays who made the big strike, signaling that their own effort to return to contention is coming sooner rather than later.  The Jays were known to be looking at both the top tier and the lower tiers of the pitching market, though the signing still comes as a surprise, given how Toronto’s previous acquisitions had been more modest.

Ryu joins Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson, and Shun Yamaguchi as newly-acquired members of Toronto’s rotation, completely overhauling a starting staff that was expected to be a major point of emphasis this winter.  Yamaguchi could wind up in the bullpen if the Jays go with some combination of in-house candidates Matt Shoemaker, Trent Thornton, Ryan Borucki, Anthony Kay, or Jacob Waguespack for the final two rotation places.  Star prospect Nate Pearson is also expected to make his big league debut at some point in 2020, so one of those rotation spots could ultimately be earmarked for him down the stretch, or the Jays could ease Pearson into the majors as a reliever.

While Pearson may be the ace of the future, Ryu is now firmly the ace of the present.  The lefty finished second in NL Cy Young Award voting last season on the heels of a league-best 2.32 ERA and 1.2 BB/9, as well as a 6.79 K/BB rate, 8.0 K/9, and 50.4% grounder rate.  ERA predictors weren’t quite as impressed (3.10 FIP, 3.32 xFIP, 3.77 SIERA) with Ryu’s performance, while his modest 90.6mph fastball finished in the bottom 11th percentile in both fastball velocity and spin rate.

On the plus side of the Statcast coin, Ryu was also one of the league’s best pitchers in limiting hard-hit balls and exit velocity, and his .263 wOBA was only slightly lower than his .281 xwOBA.  Despite the lack of fastball velocity, Ryu still had the 26th most effective heater of any qualified pitcher in the sport according to Fangraphs’ Pitch Value metrics, while his changeup was one of the ten most effective pitches in all of baseball in 2019.

Perhaps most importantly, Ryu also tossed 182 2/3 innings last year, his highest workload since his 2013 debut season in MLB and the first time he’d topped even the 126 2/3 inning plateau since 2014.  Ryu had only a couple of minimal injured list stints for minor neck and groin soreness in 2019, as opposed to the much more serious setbacks that plagued him earlier in his career.  Shoulder and elbow surgeries limited Ryu to just a single game in 2015-16, he missed close to three months in 2018 due to a torn groin, and IL stints for foot and hip problems limited him to 126 2/3 IP in 2017.

This injury history and Ryu’s age (he turns 33 in March) were reasons why MLBTR projected him to only land a three-year, $54MM deal, despite his superb 2019 campaign and his overall strong track record in 740 1/3 career innings in the majors.  The Blue Jays could have been compelled to go to four years to convince Ryu to join a team that didn’t offer as clear a path to immediate contention as some of his other suitors.

Even with Ryu signed, it remains to be seen if the Jays will emerge as a threat to return to the playoffs after three straight losing seasons.  The team will be counting on its young core of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio, and Danny Jansen to all take steps forward, while more experienced hands like Randal Grichuk (who had been Toronto’s highest-paid player prior to the Ryu signing) and the newly-acquired Travis Shaw will need to improve on mediocre 2019 performances.

The Ryu signing also re-aligns expectations for the rest of the Jays’ offseason.  On paper, this could be Toronto’s version of the Cubs’ deal with Jon Lester prior to the 2015 season — the big-ticket veteran pitching acquisition that indicated the rebuilding Cubs had enough faith in their up-and-coming young team to go for it after a lengthy rebuild.  If the Jays are serious about challenging for the postseason as soon as 2020, more substantial veteran upgrades could be made to center field, the bullpen, the first base/DH mix beyond Shaw and Rowdy Tellez, or even the rotation.  Closer Ken Giles was widely assumed to be a trade candidate, but now the Blue Jays could perhaps keep Giles for the final year of his contract in order to keep the ninth inning locked down.

The Jays’ current 2020 payroll (as per Roster Resource) projects to be just under $122.2MM, so considering that the 2016-18 clubs all finished the season with payrolls in the $164MM-$167MM range, GM Ross Atkins could have more spending room for further moves.  Ryu is the third-highest contract even given out by the franchise, topped only by Vernon Wells’ $126MM extension in the 2006-07 offseason and the five-year, $82MM free agent deal for Russell Martin prior to the 2015 season.

Ryu is the latest arm to leave what has been a scorching hot market for free agent starting pitchers.  Returning to MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, Alex Wood (at #39) is now the highest-ranked starter still on the board, as the 14 pitchers ahead of him have all found new deals before Christmas.  As Heyman notes on Twitter, the many teams still looking for rotation upgrades could now be forced to explore the trade market, which could lead to a flurry of deals before Opening Day.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman first reported the deal (Twitter link). MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez reported that Ryu would receive a partial no-trade clause. The Toronto Star’s Gregor Chsholm reported the annual breakdown.

White Sox To Sign Edwin Encarnacion

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The White Sox have reached an agreement to sign veteran slugger Edwin Encarnacion, according to multiple reports. Dominican reporter Yancen Pujols tweets that the sides have agreed to a one-year, $12MM deal that includes a $1MM signing bonus and $11MM salary, pending a physical. The contract also comes with a $12MM club option, sans buyout, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (on Twitter).

Encarnacion has been one of the game’s premier hitters since his breakout 2012 season. Though he stepped back a bit in 2018, he rebounded well in the just-completed campaign and proved he’s still capable of top-notch offensive production as he closes in on his 37th birthday.

Through 486 plate appearances over the 2019 season, Encarnacion swatted 34 long balls and slashed a healthy .244/.344/.531. That was about thirty percent above the league-average output at the plate. Encarnacion also spent a fair bit of time in the field, logging 489 innings at first base and grading within range of average with the glove.

For the South Siders, this move represents the latest addition in a busy offseason. Encarnacion will pair with Jose Abreu to form a veteran slugging duo. The latter will presumably take the lion’s share of the action at first base, but both can share the load there to stay fresh.

Whether or not the White Sox will look to keep adding bats isn’t known. The club has been tied to corner outfielders throughout the winter but has already made one move there in acquiring Nomar Mazara. With Abreu and Encarnacion likely to be in the lineup most days, and Eloy Jimenez occupying another corner outfield spot, it’d be surprising to see another high-dollar bat land in Chicago.

That’s all the more true since the White Sox catching situation seems to have some spillover. New addition Yasmani Grandal will likely spend some days at first or in the DH slot to ease his load, which will likely absorb most of the rest days for Encarnacion and Abreu. Backup receiver James McCann now seems all the more expendable, since there won’t be quite as many opportunities to deploy Grandal elsewhere.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mets Sign Dellin Betances

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The Mets gave their fans a pleasant holiday surprise, announcing Tuesday that they’ve agreed to a one-year contract with free-agent right-hander Dellin Betances. The Excel Sports client will reportedly be guaranteed $10.5MM and secure a player option for the 2021 season in addition to  a vesting player option for the 2022 campaign.

Dellin Betances MLBTR

The contract is said to promise Betances a $7.5MM salary in 2020, and his player option is valued at $6MM with a $3MM buyout. However, he’ll have the opportunity to boost the value of that option and the potential 2022 option as well.

Specifically, the value of the 2020 option will escalate by $800K when Betances pitches in his 40th game in 2020. It’ll increase by an additional $1MM upon reaching each of 50, 60 and 70 games. As for the second player option, it would vest if Betances exercises the first player option and then appears in 50 games in 2021 — but only at a $1MM base. If Betances appears in 60 games, that base would jump to $2MM (with a $1MM buyout). It’d further increase to $3MM ($1MM buyout) by appearing in 70 games in 2021.

Generally speaking, the base values of Betances’ player options make it unlikely that he’ll be tempted to opt into the additional years of the contract unless he incurs an injury that would pretty severely hinder his earning power. In the event that Betances declines his initial player option at the end of the 2020 campaign, the Mets would have the opportunity to issue him a qualifying offer.

Betances, 32 in March, made four consecutive All-Star teams beginning with the 2014 season and was one of baseball’s most dominant ’pen options from 2014-18 while with the Yankees. Over that span of five years, the New York City native pitched to a pristine 2.22 ERA with a gaudy 14.6 K/9 mark against 3.9 BB/9. Despite pitching his home games in the launching pad that is Yankee Stadium, he averaged just 0.6 HR/9 in that time as well.

The stars looked to be aligning for Betances to cash in on a massive free-agent payday as a result of that half decade of dominance, but a shoulder impingement in Spring Training ultimately wiped out five months of Betances’ 2019 season. And when he was finally healthy enough to return, Betances suffered a partial tear of his left Achilles tendon in his first (and only) appearance of the season.

Those injuries notwithstanding, Betances entered the winter considered to be one of the best bounceback candidates on the free-agent market. Few, if any available relievers can match the upside that he brings to the table. His health troubles surely wiped out the possibility of a substantial three- or even four-year arrangement, but on a short-term pact, Betances has the potential to be one of the winter’s best bargains.

The Mets’ bullpen now features three relievers who, as recently as 2018, were widely considered to be among the game’s elite: Betances, Edwin Diaz and (perhaps to a lesser extent) Jeurys Familia. All three are in dire need of a rebound, but if that trio can come anywhere close to approximating the value it produced back in ’18, the Mets’ relief unit will be an overwhelming strength.

Righty Seth Lugo will give rookie manager Carlos Beltran a fourth high-end option, as he’s coming off a terrific 2.70 ERA and a 104-to-16 K/BB ratio through 80 innings of relief work himself. Lefty Justin Wilson, too, had a strong season — albeit in a more specialized role. Righties Brad Brach, Robert Gsellman and Michael Wacha are currently in line to round out what now looks like an experienced and potentially excellent Mets bullpen.

It wasn’t long ago that the Mets’ 2020 payroll looked to be up against ownership’s comfort threshold, but the recent restructuring of the final year of Yoenis Cespedes’ four-year contract surely gave the club some additional spending capacity. That grievance left the Mets with an additional $18.75MM in resources with which to work — an unexpected development that undoubtedly played a major role in paving the way for this deal.

Andy Martino of SNY first reported the deal (via Twitter). MLB Network’s Jon Heyman added that it was a one-year deal. ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweeted that Betances received two player options. Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter links) and Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (Twitter link) added details on the option structures and incentives packages.

Astros Re-Sign Martin Maldonado

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DEC. 23: The signing is now official, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com was among those to tweet.

DEC. 20: The Astros have agreed to a two-year deal to bring back catcher Martin Maldonado, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). It includes a guaranteed $7MM for the MVP Sports Group client.

This is now the third time that the Astros have brought in Maldonado. After striking mid-season deals to acquire him in each of the past two campaigns, the Houston organization went ahead and committed to a full two-year term.

It’s possible the ’Stros are now set to move on from primary 2019 receiver Robinson Chirinos. The club already locked up Dustin Garneau to a cheap deal at the outset of the winter and has been looking for cost-efficient means of filling out a star-studded, increasingly expensive roster. Maldonado could’ve earned more from another team, per Feinsand, but preferred the comfort and opportunity available in Houston.

Maldonado, 33, has long been regarded as an excellent defender. The Baseball Prospectus grading system no longer values him as the top option behind the plate in all of baseball — as it did in 2017 — but still rates him as an above-average performer. Given today’s signing, and the evident interest from other clubs, it seems fair to presume that organizations around the game still hold Maldonado’s capabilities in the dark arts of catching in high esteem.

Achieving the benefits of Maldonado’s work on the defensive side of the spectrum has typically meant tolerating his efforts with the bat in hand. There have been a few relative peaks, but he has long been a subpar contributor on offense. Through over two thousand career plate appearances, Maldonado carries only a .219/.289/.355 batting line.

That’s more or less precisely what Maldonado did as a hitter in 2019. He finished with a 76 wRC+, just north of his lifetime 73 wRC+ mark. Maldonado did finish strong upon moving to the Astros, due largely to a power burst of questionable sustainability. Over 98 plate appearances in Houston, he slashed .202/.316/.464 with six home runs.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Indians To Sign Cesar Hernandez

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The Indians have reached a one-year agreement with free-agent second baseman Cesar Hernandez, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. The Octagon client will earn a $6.25MM salary for the 2020 season.

Cesar Hernandez

Hernandez, 30 in May, was non-tendered earlier this month after a run of five solid seasons as the Phillies’ primary second baseman. From 2015-19, Hernandez racked up 3026 plate appearances in Philadelphia and turned in a .278/.355/.388 batting line with 45 home runs, 106 doubles, 27 triples and 79 stolen bases. His home run totals ticked up in 2018-19 as well, when the switch-hitter logged a combined 29 round-trippers.

However, Hernandez was eligible for arbitration for the final time this winter and due a raise on last season’s $7.75MM salary. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected an $11.8MM salary for his final trip through that process. The Phillies — and, clearly, other teams — deemed Hernandez’s likely arbitration price to be too steep and opted to non-tender him, sending him out into the open market for the first time in his career.

Several factors surely contributed to the decision to cut Hernandez loose. The free-agent market is arguably deeper at second base than any other position, thus hampering the Indians’ ability to drum up trade interest in Hernandez even in spite of his steady rate of play over the past half decade. The Phillies also had a versatile pair of infielders in Jean Segura and particularly Scott Kingery, allowing them to target virtually any infield option they saw fit upon moving on from Hernandez. (Eventually, the club zeroed in on Didi Gregorius.)

With the Indians, Hernandez will now slot in as their primary second baseman, replacing mainstay Jason Kipnis, whose 2020 club  option was bought at the onset of the offseason. He’ll bring a generally solid defensive reputation to the table in Cleveland, though Hernandez isn’t likely to be bringing home any Gold Glove Awards in the near future. Metrics like Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved are a bit split on his total body of work, but Hernandez has only had one truly poor season per either of those measures. And, in 2019, he posted +6 DRS and a 0.7 UZR, suggesting he’s still more than capable of handling the position.

Installing Hernandez at second base means that two-time All-Star and two-time Silver Slugger Jose Ramirez will be locked in as Cleveland’s primary third baseman in 2020. Ramirez is capable of playing either second or third, which gave the Indians’ front office some flexibility when eyeing potential infield targets in free agency.

Of course, that flexibility only extends so far, as Cleveland ownership has rather clearly given the front office some notable payroll constraints. The Indians have already sent Corey Kluber to the Rangers in a trade that more closely resembled a salary dump than anything else. The fact that they nonetheless took what was widely regarded as a light return now — as opposed to keeping Kluber and hoping he built up some value early in the year — suggests that clearing the entirety of next year’s $17.5MM salary was a critical element of the swap.

Whether the Indians make any additional shakeups on the roster is currently one of the more interesting hot stove storylines in the game. Teams have been trying to pry superstar shortstop Francisco Lindor away from Cleveland to no avail, and burgeoning frontline starter Mike Clevinger is reported to be drawing interest as well. There’s no firm indication that the Indians plan to move either player, though, and even with Hernandez now on board, Cleveland’s payroll checks in at roughly $97MM, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez. That’s a drop of $38MM from 2018’s Opening Day mark and $22MM from 2019’s Opening Day total.

Angels Sign Julio Teheran

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DECEMBER 21, 4:35PM: Teheran’s deal with the Angels is now official, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.

DECEMBER 19: The Angels and right-hander Julio Teheran have agreed to a one-year contract, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  Teheran will earn $9MM in the deal, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter) reports.  Teheran is represented by the Wasserman agency.

After spending his first nine seasons in Atlanta, Teheran will now head west to join what the Angels hope will be a greatly improved pitching staff.  Los Angeles has been linked to numerous top free agent starters, though their pitching acquisitions have thus far been more modest, between signing Teheran and trading four minor league pitchers to the Orioles for Dylan Bundy.  While putting Teheran and Bundy behind Shohei Ohtani still represents an upgrade for the Halos, one suspects the Angels will still look to add a topline arm rather than count on Ohtani to be an ace in his first season back from Tommy John surgery.

Given the amount of pitching injuries the Angels have faced in recent years, Teheran’s durability is a big plus.  The righty has averaged 191 innings per season from 2013-19, with only two minimal injured list stints (for a thumb contusion and a lat strain) in that span.  While Teheran has two All-Star appearances to his name and looked for a time like he could become the ace of the Braves’ staff, his last three seasons have been more modest.

From 2017-19, Teheran has 3.3 total fWAR, a 4.09 ERA, 7.9 K/9, and 1.99 K/BB rate over 538 2/3 frames.  While he posted a 3.81 ERA in 2019, ERA predictors like FIP (4.66), xFIP (5.26), and SIERA (5.11) painted a much more dire picture of Teheran’s 2019 performance.  He also posted a career-high 39.1% hard-hit ball rate, and he finished in the bottom tenth percentile of all qualified pitchers in fastball velocity, with only a 89.7mph average on his heater.  (In more positive Statcast news, Teheran had above-average fastball spin and finished in the 84th percentile in terms of curveball spin.)

Given these less-than-impressive advanced metrics, it wasn’t entirely surprising that the Braves chose to buy out the final year of Teheran’s contract for $1MM rather than pay him a $12MM salary for 2020.  (Teheran was playing on a six-year, $32.4MM extension signed prior to the 2014 season.)  The one-year guarantee from L.A. was also less than the two-year, $18MM MLBTR projected for him at the outset of the offseason.  The Teheran signing looks somewhat akin to the short-term signings of Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill that Angels GM Billy Eppler orchestrated last winter, though obviously Eppler will be hoping for much more than the near-minimal return Harvey and Cahill brought to the 2019 Angels.

With Teheran now in the fold, the Angels have a projected luxury tax payroll of just over $185.5MM, as per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez.  There’s still plenty of daylight between the Angels (who have never paid a tax penalty) and the $208MM luxury tax threshold, so Los Angeles has room to still make more additions to the pitching staff or the roster as a whole.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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