AL West Notes: Angels, Thor, Seager, Semien, Rangers, Olson
The Angels signed Noah Syndergaard earlier this week, a move that came about due to a very ardent pursuit by the front office. Speaking with The Los Angeles Times’ Jack Harris, The Associated Press, and other reporters, Syndergaard said the Angels were the very first team to get in touch with him after the free agent period opened, and his own interest in Anaheim grew after a three-hour dinner with Angels GM Perry Minasian. The executive presented detailed plans on several topics, including how the team would manage the right-hander’s innings in 2022, and some mechanical adjustments the Angels were looking to make based on their analysis of Syndergaard’s tape. “It was a breath of fresh air to hear that, to know his baseball knowledge,” Syndergaard said. “He was able to break down some of the flaws I had over the past couple years….I trust that what they saw, they’re going to be able to fix, and I’ll get back to my old self.”
Plenty of preparation went into the meeting on Minasian’s end, as he said “As far as man hours, the amount of work we’ve done, I don’t know if I’ve ever done more on an individual player.” The Angels had to be sure that Syndergaard was fully recovered after missing essentially two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery rehab, and their offer also matched Syndergaard’s desire to re-enter the market next winter with what he hopes will be a full and healthy season under his belt. Syndergaard said that while he initially expected to remain with the Mets, “I didn’t really hear from them all that much in the last two months from the end of the season until now.” This lack of communication may have been the result of the Mets’ long search for a new front office boss, and Syndergaard indicated that the ever-ongoing drama surrounding the team influenced his decision to sign elsewhere. “This is an important year for me. This is kind of a make-or-break time for me. I didn’t want to gamble on that kind of uncertainty that’s been going on with them,” the righty said.
More from around the AL West…
- Members of the Rangers front office recently met with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien in California, The Dallas Morning News’ Evan Grant reports. Texas was already known to have interest in both free agent shortstops, so the in-person meetings represent the next logical step in the pursuit, especially since the Rangers have also met face-to-face with another available shortstop in Trevor Story. After five consecutive losing seasons, the Rangers are looking eager to return to contention, and are known to be willing to spend at the highest ends of the free agent market. Since Seager, Semien, and Story all rejected qualifying offers, Texas would have to give up $500K in international bonus pool money and their second-highest pick in the 2022 draft as compensation — which is another sign of the Rangers’ aggression, considering that pick would be the third choice of the second round.
- Unsurprisingly, the Athletics are putting a very high asking price on Matt Olson in any trade talks, as MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets the A’s are “shooting for the moon” in their demands. It remains to be seen whether any team will line up on an Olson trade, and yet parting with a big trade package would probably be justifiable, considering Olson’s impressive track record. Olson is the most prominent of what could be several Oakland trade candidates this winter, as the club looks to be cutting back on payroll.
Needs Align For Rays, A’s In Honeywell Trade
As you may have noticed during the 40-man roster hubbub, former top prospect Brent Honeywell Jr. was traded from the Rays to the Athletics in exchange for cash considerations. For the Rays, losing Honeywell was simply a roster crunch issue, as well as a desire to give him more opportunities, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. “We wanted more than anything to give him an opportunity to go somewhere and get a chance to pitch on a regular basis,” said Kevin Ibach, Rays senior director of pro personnel and pro scouting, per Topkin.
Honeywell made his way back from multiple arm injuries to make his Major League debut in 2021, but his future is simply too uncertain for the Rays, who are looking to maximize their competitive window in a tightly-contested AL East. The A’s, on the contrary, are looking to scale back their payroll. Honeywell, therefore, fits the bill for them as a high-ceiling, high-risk arm who bring a touch of intrigue to the roster.
The 26-year-old is out of options, so he’ll need to make the team out of spring training to avoid being exposed to waivers. He’s likely to pitch a swing role out of the bullpen, though much depends on what how many players the A’s ultimately end up dealing this winter.
The Rays have been typically proactive in clearing 40-man roster space this winter, dealing away Mike Brosseau, Louis Head, and prospect Tobias Myers in addition to Honeywell and southpaw Ryan Sherriff, who was claimed off waivers, and Adam Conley, who elected free agency after being designated for assignment. The Rays are not coy about trading prospects like Honeywell and Myers, especially as a means of “paying it forward,” or acquiring younger prospects for players that need to be on the 40-man roster.
Quick Hits: Mets, A’s, Cubs
The Mets current payroll already sits at about $185MM, but owner Steve Cohen would still rather add through free agency than deplete an already thin farm system by trading away prospects, per Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News. Cohen’s comments were pretty telling as he introduced new GM Billy Eppler. Said Cohen, “We don’t really have a lot in our farm system to supplement what we need. It’s going to require spending. That’s what’s going to happen. I’ve let Billy know that I’m willing — for the right deals and right free agents — to go get the players we need. We want to be competitive.”
The Mets’ strategy appears to be to let walk the free agents who can net them draft picks (like Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto), while dipping back into free agency to replace their on-field production. That’s a sound team-building strategy, so long as the Mets are able to find the right free agents to round out the roster. From a forward-looking perspective, the added draft picks will certainly help in building a sustainable development engine, which should be the goal of every franchise. Elsewhere around the game…
- The Athletics have made a move to purchase land in Las Vegas that could be home to a future stadium, per Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. The exact location hasn’t been revealed as the A’s continue on the “parallel paths” track for future planning, exploring their options in both Vegas and Oakland. As of now, this constitutes little more than another step in the A’s flirtation with Vegas. That said, it’s an important step. The A’s current stadium lease runs through 2024.
- The Cubs struck quickly this winter to nab Wade Miley from the Reds. Miley joins Kyle Hendricks as the only two pitchers currently locked into starting spots for next season, per Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times. That’s actually a better foundation than the Cubs have had in recent seasons, at least if you buy into Miley’s breakout last season. As for the rest of the rotation, it’s currently a four-man stable auditioning for three open rotation spots. Adbert Alzolay, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, and Alec Mills will all compete for bulk innings next season, even if one or more of that quartet ultimately gets bumped into full-time bullpen roles.
A’s To Acquire Brent Honeywell From Rays
The A’s are acquiring right-hander Brent Honeywell from the Rays, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). Tampa Bay will receive cash in return, reports Shayna Rubin of the San Jose Mercury News (on Twitter).
It’s a notable low-cost pickup for the A’s. Honeywell, 26, was considered one of the game’s most promising pitching prospects on his way up the minor league ladder. He appeared on Baseball America’s top 100 list entering a staggering five consecutive seasons from 2016-20. That speaks both to Honeywell’s talent and the repeated injury troubles that have kept him from making a major league impact to this point.
For all his acclaim from evaluators, Honeywell’s big league resume consists of just 4 1/3 innings across three outings this past season. He spent the bulk of the season working in a swing role with Triple-A Durham, tossing 81 2/3 innings of 3.97 ERA ball but only fanning 20% of opponents. That’s a far cry from the near-30% strikeout percentages he’d run for a good chunk of his early minor league career.
Recent struggles notwithstanding, there’s little harm for Oakland in taking a flier on Honeywell. The A’s have one of the league’s thinner farm systems, giving them space on the 40-man roster. With the Rays seemingly in a perennial state of roster crunch, there was an opportunity for Oakland to squeeze an affordable, big league ready starter with pedigree out of a deeper organization.
Honeywell is out of minor league option years, so he’s a good bet to break camp with the A’s in 2022. Otherwise, Oakland would have to designate him for assignment and make him available to other clubs themselves.
A’s Select Nick Allen, Four Others
The Athletics announced Friday that they’ve selected the contract of five players, including shortstop prospect Nick Allen. Also added to the 40-man roster were infielders Jonah Bride and Jordan Diaz, righty Jorge Juan, and outfielder Cody Thomas.
Allen, 23, was a third-round pick in 2017 and is regarded as an elite defensive prospect — ranking third among A’s farmhands at Baseball America andMLB.com, as well as fifth at FanGraphs. Listed at 5’8″ and 166 pounds, Allen’s slight frame has led to concerns about his eventual upside at the plate, though he looked just fine in 50 Double-A games this season, hitting .319/.374/.471 through 229 plate appearances.
Allen, who also won an Olympic Silver Medal with Team USA, did struggle in his first taste of Triple-A ball this past season, hitting .243/.302/.301. That was a sample of just 151 plate appearances, though, and Allen’s glove and speed alone would likely have led him to be selected in this year’s Rule 5 had he gone unprotected. With the A’s embarking on what looks to be a considerable step back, Allen ought to get a chance in the big leagues before too long — particularly if he produces more offense in his second run through Triple-A.
Diaz, a 21-year-old corner infielder, split his 2021 season between first base and third base while hitting .288/.337/.483 with 13 homers, 24 doubles and a triple in Class-A Advanced. He’s 11th among A’s prospects at MLB.com and 13th at Baseball America, drawing praise for his plate discipline and hit tool.
Listed at a towering 6’8″ and 250 pounds, the 22-year-old Juan has a fastball that can reach the upper 90s (and likely feels even faster given the extension he gets on that huge frame). He punched out 34.5% of his opponents between Class-A and Class-A Advanced this season, albeit in a small sample of 26 2/3 innings. As you’d expect for a young pitcher of this size, Juan has missed bats in droves but also struggled to command the ball (career 14.8% walk rate). He’s regarded among Oakland’s 25 or so best prospects, but there’s a good bit of risk with him as well.
Bride, 26 next month, is a 23rd-rounder from the 2018 draft who walked in more than 17% of his Double-A plate appearances this season. Splitting his time between third base, first base and second base, Bride slashed a combined .265/.407/.424 with as many walks as strikeouts (57).
Thomas, 27, came to the A’s alongside Adam Kolarek in the trade that sent Sheldon Neuse and Gus Varland to the Dodgers. While the Kolarek portion of Oakland’s return certainly didn’t go as hoped, Thomas utterly destroyed Triple-A pitching with a .289/.363/.665 batting line. In just 245 plate appearances, Thomas ripped 18 home runs, 20 doubles and four triples. Impressive as his lefty pop was, Thomas also fanned in 31.8% of his plate appearances, so there’s some obvious swing-and-miss concern with him. His 2021 season was cut short by an Achilles injury that kept him out of action beyond July 25.
Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics
After four winning seasons, the window may now be closed for the Athletics, as the team seems intent on cutting payroll and trading several key players.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Elvis Andrus, SS: $14MM through 2022, Rangers paying $7.25MM of salary ($15MM club option for 2023 becomes guaranteed if Andrus has 550 plate appearances in 2022)
- Stephen Piscotty, OF: $8.25MM in 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $15MM club option for 2023)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Sean Manaea – $10.2MM
- Chris Bassitt – $8.8MM
- Chad Pinder – $2.8MM
- Matt Chapman – $9.5MM
- Matt Olson – $12.0MM
- Tony Kemp – $2.2MM
- Frankie Montas – $5.2MM
- Lou Trivino – $2.9MM
- Deolis Guerra – $900K
- Ramon Laureano – $2.8MM
- Non-tender candidates: Pinder, Guerra
Option Decisions
- Jake Diekman, RP: Received $750K buyout after Athletics declined $4MM club option for 2022
- Andrew Chafin, RP: Declined his end of a $5.25MM mutual option for 2022 (received $500K buyout)
Free Agents
- Chafin, Diekman, Starling Marte, Mark Canha, Yusmeiro Petit, Jed Lowrie, Sergio Romo, Josh Harrison, Khris Davis, Mitch Moreland, Yan Gomes, Mike Fiers, Trevor Rosenthal, Burch Smith, Pete Kozma, Michael Feliz
With such a large and increasingly expensive arbitration class on the horizon, 2021 seemed like a make-or-break year for this version of the Athletics, who looked increasingly like an all-in team as the season proceeded. The A’s made big trade deadline moves for Starling Marte, Josh Harrison, Andrew Chafin, and Yan Gomes to help down the stretch but it wasn’t enough, as Oakland finished 86-76 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2017.
The disappointment is palpable among A’s fans, who already face the uncertainty of whether or not their team will even still be in Oakland in a few years’ time, and now are looking at yet another step-back or reload of the roster. As general manager David Forst plainly put it, “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.”
Obligatory note: we aren’t talking enormous payroll numbers here. While the Athletics do have a big arbitration class, those costs are belied by the fact that Elvis Andrus and Stephen Piscotty represent the club’s only guaranteed salary commitments. Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource project Oakland’s current 2022 payroll to sit in the range of roughly $81.2MM to $85.36MM, which would still represent one of the lower payrolls of any team in baseball. Just standing pat in this range would make it tricky for the A’s to make any necessary upgrades, but executive vice president Billy Beane and Forst have done more with less in the past, so a case can certainly be made that Athletics owner John Fisher could or should spend enough to allow one more season with this core group of players.
And yet, that is not how Fisher (or any Athletics ownership group of the last 25 years) operates. The only question now is just how much payroll will be slashed, and the first herald of the spending cuts came when longtime manager Bob Melvin was allowed to interview with the Padres and ultimately take San Diego’s managerial job. Melvin was still under contract for the 2022 season, but Oakland let Melvin go without any compensation, seemingly just to get Melvin’s reported $4MM salary off the books. There hasn’t yet been much news about who the Athletics might yet hire as Melvin’s replacement, and under the circumstances, it is probably best to expect a first-time manager more willing to take a lesser salary.
Some reports suggest the A’s might be aiming to spend as little as $50MM on player salaries in 2022, and if such a drop is coming, there is no shortage of potential sell-off moves available to the team. Since extensions now seem to be out of the question, impending free agents like Chris Bassitt and Sean Manaea are the likeliest to go. Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, and Frankie Montas are only controlled through 2023, and Olson’s projected $12MM arbitration salary would represent the biggest outlay on the Athletics’ books, so the All-Star first baseman may have already played his last game for Oakland.
If there is a silver lining to this situation for Athletics fans, past history has shown that the team isn’t likely to deal all five of these players. Beane has never taken the A’s through a total rebuild over his 24 years running the front office, so it doesn’t seem likely that he would embark on such a course now (with the caveat that the A’s may still be feeling pandemic-related revenue losses). If we’re targeting which A’s players are the likeliest to be traded, it is also worth guessing which may still be on the roster come Opening Day. Montas, for instance, is probably the least likely of the “big five” members of the arbitration class to be moved, if for no other reason than he is less expensive that Manaea and Bassitt, and Oakland isn’t likely to move all three of its top starters.
The other optimistic slant on the Athletics’ winter is that Beane and Forst have walked this road before and have consistently been able to get the A’s back on track within a couple of years, at most. As difficult as it will be to replace some of the names likely to leave Oakland within the next few months, it isn’t totally out of the question that the A’s can still be competitive in 2022, if Beane/Forst can acquire some MLB-ready younger players who break out on their new team.
For two years of a power-hitting, Gold Glove first baseman like Olson, for instance, the A’s can justifiably ask for multiple top prospects and a player off a trade partner’s big league roster that could help the Athletics in 2022. Someone like the Yankees’ Luke Voit makes for a reasonable example — Olson would be taking over first base anyway — and the Yankees have already been linked to Olson. (Of course, the A’s might not be interested in Voit and his salary if they aren’t planning to try to contend next year.) The A’s have often focused on MLB-ready starters in major trades as well, which is how they came to acquire Bassitt and Montas in the first place.
The Yankees, to be clear, are just one example. Any of the Brewers, Guardians, Padres, Red Sox, Mariners, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies or Braves could make sense for an Olson trade, perhaps in some cases hinging on other roster moves at first base and/or whether National League teams will have a DH in 2022.
Olson is valuable enough that the Athletics shouldn’t dilute their potential trade return by attaching an undesirable contract (i.e. Piscotty or Andrus) to a possible trade package, yet the club might explore this tactic with other trade chips at some point in the winter. For instance, if Olson and Manaea are dealt to get some new young talent in the pipeline, the A’s could go into full salary dump mode and package something like Bassitt and Piscotty together to a team willing to absorb Piscotty’s salary in order to ultimately give up lesser prospects in the deal. As much as it would hurt to give up any of the “big five” for a miminal return, deploying this strategy in one trade would sting less if Oakland has already banked some prospects in earlier trades. Also, moving Piscotty or Andrus might free up enough payroll to spare the A’s from having to make a subsequent trade of a Chapman or a Montas.
Identifying specific target areas for the 2022 A’s is a little difficult at the moment, considering we don’t yet known the breadth of the club’s fire sale. Third base, for example, could either be a set position or a big vacancy depending on whether Chapman stays or goes. To this end, Chad Pinder might be a useful piece to keep in his final year of arbitration eligibility, since Pinder’s versatility at least gives the A’s some flexibility in how they address various positions.
It is safe to call outfield help a must, since Marte and Mark Canha are both free agents. Ramon Laureano is the lone starter remaining and will return in center field, though he’ll miss the first 27 games of 2022 to complete the remainder of his 80-game PED suspension. Piscotty is penciled into the right field job at the moment, but after three seasons of injuries and replacement-level play, it is difficult to know what expect from him next year.
Among internal options, Seth Brown and Tony Kemp are the most probable candidates to see time in the corner outfield slots. However, both could also be needed at other positions (Kemp at second base, Brown at first base or DH), thus opening the door for any of Luis Barrera, Skye Bolt, Cody Thomas, or Buddy Reed to earn some outfield playing time. A low-cost veteran could be added to that group, yet this is another decision that could hinge on how much emphasis the Athletics are putting on 2022. If the A’s are taking a full step back from a run at the playoffs, the team might decide to just let the youngsters play and see who emerges as an MLB-capable player.
Assuming Kemp isn’t traded, shortstop prospect Nick Allen‘s development could factor into Kemp’s primary position in the lineup. Allen is expected to make his Major League debut in 2022 and is already more than ready from a defensive perspective, so his longer-term role is Oakland’s shortstop of the future. With Andrus at shortstop for one more year, the A’s could break Allen in as a second baseman, thus freeing up Kemp to see more time in left field.
Jed Lowrie is one of the Oakland free agents who might be a realistic candidate to be re-signed, and thus he could also be part of the infield picture. After two injury-ruined seasons with the Mets, Lowrie returned to the A’s and played in 139 games last season, providing around league-average offense over 512 plate appearances. Heading into his age-38 season, Lowrie may have a tough time competing with younger utility infield types on the free agent market, and the A’s could welcome back a familiar veteran to provide leadership through what might be a transitional year.
James Kaprielian and Cole Irvin could end up being the top two starters in the Oakland rotation depending on what happens with Manaea, Bassitt, and Montas. Since it seems quite likely at least one of that trio will be dealt, the Athletics will need some starters. Daulton Jefferies probably has the inside track on one spot and A.J. Puk another if he can stay healthy, which is a big if considering all of the injuries Puk has already faced in his short career.
Any of Grant Holmes, Brian Howard or Paul Blackburn will be in competition for another starting role, but this is certainly an area where the A’s will have to land some kind of inexpensive veteran depth, just to cover any possible innings. It also isn’t exactly a surprise to say that the Athletics will look to acquire some MLB-ready starting pitching in any trades since every team is always looking for more arms, yet Oakland’s need is particularly strong considering how many of their current starters could be traded.
Chafin declined his half of a mutual option and Jake Diekman’s club option wasn’t exercised, so those two join Sergio Romo and Yusmeiro Petit as prominent A’s relievers now set for free agency. Beane and Forst have traditionally been pretty aggressive in adding to their bullpens over the years, though that strategy might not be optimal in a winter of budget cutbacks (and with the Trevor Rosenthal signing still lingering as the major misfire of last year’s offseason).
The Athletics could at least offer opportunity to any free agent relievers, as the A’s head into 2022 with Lou Trivino penciled in as closer even if he had trouble sticking in the role last year. In the event of a lockout related to collective bargaining talks, the subsequent roster freeze could lead to a flood of relievers hitting the market when (if?) the freeze is lifted just prior to or during Spring Training. A surplus of available relievers could help Oakland score a bargain signing or two — particularly since the A’s could reasonably offer save chances and a spacious home park to any potential targets looking to reestablish value.
If the front office succeeds in landing some intriguing prospects over the winter, A’s fans may feel a bit better about the team’s overall direction by Opening Day. Unfortunately, getting to whatever promising longer-term future awaits will require some more immediate pain, as the Athletics’ “cycle” of roster construction and destruction never stops spinning. With the Astros reinforcing their pennant-winning squad and the Mariners, Angels, and Rangers all looking to make substantial upgrades this offseason, the Athletics’ first goal may be figuring out just how to avoid a last-place finish.
Rob Manfred Discusses Possibility Of A Lockout
The current collective bargaining agreement expires in less than two weeks, with the possibility of an offseason freeze looming. If a new deal isn’t agreed upon when the current one wraps up at 11:59 pm EST on December 1, the general expectation within the industry is that owners will lock the players out — resulting in a ban on transactions until another agreement is reached.
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred addressed the state of the labor situation when speaking with reporters (including Evan Drellich of the Athletic and Jeff Passan of ESPN) this afternoon. The commissioner stopped short of calling a lockout an inevitability, but he certainly seemed to suggest that course of action was on the table. Manfred drew a distinction between the impact a winter transactions freeze would have on the sport versus that of a work stoppage that lingers into next season.
“I can’t believe there’s a single fan in the world who doesn’t understand that an offseason lockout that moves the process forward is different than a labor dispute that costs games,” he said. As to whether the sides still had hope of hammering out a new CBA before December 1, Manfred said the league was “committed to continuing to offer proposals and suggestions in an effort to get to an agreement before” that date, but acknowledged that “time is becoming an issue.”
Technically, the expiration of the CBA wouldn’t necessitate a lockout. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explored in August, the sides continued to conduct offseason business during the last winters (1993-94 and 94-95) that proceeded without a CBA in place. The players went on strike when no agreement was reached during the 1994 season, and that year’s World Series was eventually cancelled.
Manfred implied the league wouldn’t want to run the risk of negotiating without an agreement this time around, pointing to the ’94 strike and trends in other professional sports leagues as justification. “I don’t think ’94 worked out too great for anybody,” Manfred said. “I think when you look at other sports, the pattern has become to control the timing of the labor dispute and try to minimize the prospect of actual disruption of the season. That’s what it’s about: It’s avoiding doing damage to the season.”
The commissioner’s comments come amidst a background of a very slow back-and-forth between the league and Players Association. The MLBPA has made two core economics proposals over the past six months; the league has made just one, although it made an alteration to its August offer last week. It doesn’t seem there’s been much progress on economics issues, with the MLBPA pursuing such goals as raised luxury tax thresholds and earlier arbitration eligibility. The league, meanwhile, has pushed for lowered luxury tax markers and an age-based system for free agency eligibility that could delay the path to the open market for the game’s brightest stars, among other things.
While much of Manfred’s focus was unsurprisingly on the core economic structure of the game, he also touched on a few other topics. The commissioner expressed optimism about the league’s ongoing testing of pre-tacked baseballs, suggesting they hoped to test the prototype in Spring Training 2022. Manfred didn’t rule out the possibility of using a pre-tacked ball in regular season games at some point next season. He also voiced support for the possibility of a pitch clock being implemented in upcoming CBA talks, saying that “owners remain very interested in” introducing a clock at the major league level after testing it in minor league games for years.
Manfred also addressed the respective stadium situations in Tampa Bay and Oakland. He again suggested Las Vegas could be a viable landing spot for the A’s if they’re unable to work out a deal in the Bay Area. Manfred confirmed that the Rays have made a proposal to the league’s executive committee regarding the franchise’s hopes for splitting home games between Tampa and Montreal. (John Romano of The Tampa Bay Times explored the issue at greater length earlier in the week). The executive committee has yet to weigh in on the topic, Manfred said this afternoon.
Finally, the league announced the previously-reported decision to provide housing for minor league players in 2022. Josh Norris of Baseball America shed some light on the details, reporting that teams will now be responsible for leases and utility agreements for players on minor league contracts who make less than $20K per month. Norris adds further details on the base amenities (including utilities, electricity and WiFi) that acceptable residences must include. His full piece is a worthwhile read for those interested in the specifics of the new policy.
Mariners Rumors: Story, Chapman, Suzuki, Rotation
The Mariners are known to be in the market for infield upgrades, with both Kris Bryant and Marcus Semien among their early targets. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times adds a few names to the pile, reporting that they’re also intrigued by the possibility of signing Trevor Story to play second base on a regular basis. Divish also indicates that the Mariners have high levels of interest in A’s third baseman Matt Chapman and several of Oakland’s available pitchers, including Sean Manaea, Frankie Montas and Chris Bassitt.
Beyond that group, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto told Dick Fain of SportsRadio 950 KJR this week that the Mariners would be interested in star outfielder Seiya Suzuki if and when he’s posted by the Hiroshima Carp of Nippon Professional Baseball (Twitter link). The Carp do plan to post Suzuki, but that process has not yet officially begun.
Dipoto has already made clear in the young offseason that his team will be more aggressive in free agency than in years past and given at least some indications as to the types of players he’ll target. He spoke earlier this month of a desire to sign “adaptable” free agents, naming both Semien and Javier Baez as players who’ve shown a willingness to move around the diamond. He’s also made it clear to J.P. Crawford that he’ll play shortstop in Seattle both next year and in the long term, which could well take the Mariners out of the running for any of the market’s top free agents who are set on remaining at that position.
[Related: Seattle Mariners’ Offseason Outlook]
While Story has been entrenched at shortstop in Colorado, he could certainly help his market if he shows a willingness to play another position. He’s typically been a plus defender at short, of course, but that only makes it likelier that he’d be a high-quality defender on the other side of the bag. Openness to playing elsewhere shouldn’t be a necessity, but given that Story had something of a down season by his standards, an open-minded outlook ought to broaden his appeal.
Unlike Story, there’d be no position change for Chapman in virtually any scenario. His elite defense at third base is perhaps the most appealing element of his overall game, and the Mariners have an obvious opening at the hot corner after declining Kyle Seager‘s $20MM option. Chapman’s strikeout rate has soared and his batting average has dropped since a 2020 hip injury that required surgery, but he still draws plenty of walks and hits with power.
Chapman is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.5MM in 2022 and is controlled another two seasons. He could draw interest from around a third of the league, if not more, so the Mariners will hardly be alone in any potential pursuit. Attempting to expand talks to include one of the Athletics’ starters would only ramp up the price, and such a package may not be realistic if Dipoto’s comments about refusing to trade from the very top end of his prospect capital hold true (link via Corey Brock of The Athletic). “There’s no scenario where we will move the top prospects in our system, the guys who are prominent in our system,” Dipoto said at the GM Meetings just nine days ago.
Turning to the 27-year-old Suzuki, he’d be something of an odd fit — at least from a defensive standpoint. While Suzuki briefly played some third base early in his career, he’s settled in as a quality right fielder, winning four Gold Gloves at that position in Japan. The general consensus MLBTR received when speaking to MLB scouts and evaluators familiar with Suzuki was that he can be a well-rounded, everyday right fielder in the Majors but isn’t really an option in the infield, for defensive reasons.
The Mariners already have numerous outfield options, including Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell and yet-to-debut top prospect Julio Rodriguez. Not all are proven at the MLB level, of course, but winning the bidding on Suzuki would register as something of a surprise because of that depth — even with some DH at-bats available to help rotate four or five players through the outfield.
Perhaps the Mariners are more convinced Suzuki could move back to the infield on at least a part-time basis, or perhaps they simply believe his looming availability represents a unique opportunity to acquire an impact bat. (Suzuki, after all, has a .319/.435/.592 batting line with 121 home runs, 115 doubles and four triples dating back to 2018.) Regardless, Dipoto’s comment on the matter can’t be wholly ignored, even if the M’s seem an unlikely candidate to win the bidding when other interested parties have a more acute outfield need.
As for the reported interest in Oakland’s trio of available starting pitchers, it’s a good reminder that while there’s been a high level of focus on the Mariners’ quest to add at least one prominent bat to the lineup, they’ll also be in the market for one, if not two starting pitchers. The previously mentioned unwillingness to deal from the top of the system could make it tough to obtain a package of Chapman and a starting pitcher, but both Manaea and Bassitt would be one-year rentals, so acquiring either pitcher individually may not come with such a steep ask.
Whatever route they take, it’s increasingly evident that the Mariners are casting a very wide net as they look to end a two-decade playoff drought.
Looking For A Match In A Matt Chapman Trade
The tea leaves in Oakland aren’t painting a pretty picture of what is to come. A few weeks ago, they let manager Bob Melvin depart and join the Padres, seemingly just to save themselves a few million in salary. Then they declined a $4MM option on Jake Diekman, a fair enough price for a solid lefty reliever. Then there were the recent comments of general manager David Forst, who said that they are willing to listen to trade offers for any of their players. “This is the cycle for the A’s. We have to listen and be open to whatever comes out of this. This is our lot in Oakland until it’s not.” Everything seems to be pointing towards a big sell-off in Oakland, with their arbitration-eligible players likely to be exchanged for younger and cheaper alternatives.
As the front office is doing all of that listening, they are likely to hear a lot about Matt Chapman. The third baseman, who turns 29 in April, can be controlled for two more seasons via arbitration. The arbitration projections of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz point to Chapman’s 2022 salary being in the $9.5MM range, with him then being due another raise for 2023, before being eligible for free agency. That’s not prohibitively expensive for a lot of teams, but for the Athletics, that’s a decent chunk of their budget. They’re currently projected for a 2022 payroll over $85MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. Their opening day number has only been above $90MM once, which was 2019, before the pandemic wiped out almost two thirds of a season and left teams playing in front of empty stadiums for the remainder. (Hat tip to Cot’s Baseball Contracts.) Hypothetically speaking, if they want to get that number down around $65MM, which was their opening day figure in 2018, a contract around $10MM would represent about 15% of the total outlay.
The timing of trading Chapman puts the Oakland brass in a difficult position, as he’s coming off a down year, relative to his own lofty standards. From his debut in June of 2017 until the end of the 2019 season, he played 385 games, hitting 74 home runs and slashing .257/.341/.500. His strikeout rate of 23.9% was a tad higher than league average, but so was his 10.1% walk rate. All that amounted to a wRC+ of 127 that, combined with his elite defense, added up to 15.6 fWAR. However, 2020 saw him fall from those incredible heights. His batting average dropped, his strikeout rate increased, his walk rate decreased and then his season was ended prematurely by hip surgery. In 2021, the good news was that he was healthy enough after the surgery to play 151 games and provide excellent defense, winning his third Gold Glove award. But the offense didn’t fully come back. His walk rate shot up to 12.9%, but his strikeout rate was a whopping 32.5%. He did hit 27 homers, but his overall line of .210/.314/.403 was well below his previous level, and amounted to a wRC+ of 101, just a hair above league average. It seems absurd to refer to 3.4 fWAR as a “down year”, but it is for Chapman, as that’s barely half of the 6.7 and 6.1 he was worth in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
For the Oakland front office, that puts them at a crossroads. One path is to hold onto him and hope for a return to his prior form and increase in his trade value. They could accomplish their salary-shedding goals by trading other players, such as Matt Olson, Sean Manaea and Chris Bassitt, who are all projected to earn between $8.8MM and $12MM. Olson’s is coming off his best season, while Manaea and Bassitt are both free agents after 2022. However, holding Chapman comes with the risk that he could be injured again, or just stay his 2021 level and see his trade value reduced as he gets closer to free agency. The way to avoid that risk would be to just make a move now, even if his trade value isn’t at its peak.
If they do decide to part with Chapman, or any other player, they seem likely to target MLB-ready pieces. As noted by Steve Adams, from the piece linked in the first paragraph, the club’s various resets usually don’t last very long because this has been their method. The team has only had a losing record eight times in the 24 seasons of the Billy Beane era, and never for more than three in a row. With that in mind, let’s consider some potential trading partners.
Mariners: There’s a third base vacancy in Seattle for the first time a long time, as Kyle Seager is now a free agent. Abraham Toro is pencilled in there for now, but he’s also capable of moving to second base and bumping Dylan Moore into a bench/utility role, making Chapman an easy fit. The club is expected to be aggressive this offseason, as they look to build on a strong 2021 campaign. The Athletics are probably loath to send Chapman to a division rival, but they may also be interested in one of Seattle’s many young and cheap outfielders. The Mariners have Mitch Haniger in one spot, with the other two being open for Jarred Kelenic, Kyle Lewis, Jake Fraley, Taylor Trammell, Julio Rodriguez and Zach DeLoach. The Athletics have just seen Mark Canha and Starling Marte head into free agency and are unlikely to outbid other teams in order to bring them back. Ramon Laureano will still be serving his suspension for the first 27 games of the 2022 season, leaving Oakland with outfield options such as Stephen Piscotty, Seth Brown, Chad Pinder, Skye Bolt and Luis Barrera.
Marlins: Miami has a tremendous pitching surplus and is looking to use it to improve their offense, particularly at catcher and in the outfield. However, third base is a bit of a question mark for them as well. Brian Anderson is penciled in there now, but only got into 67 games in 2021 due to various injuries. Even if he is healthy, he’s capable of playing the outfield, meaning that adding Chapman could indirectly be the outfield addition they seek. With the expected addition of the DH in the NL, it would also be easy to have them both in the lineup. The Athletics would presumably be interested in Miami’s arms that have yet to reach arbitration, such as Zach Thompson, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Max Meyer or maybe even getting Jesus Luzardo back.
Blue Jays: Much like the Marlins, the Jays also saw their third baseman miss a lot of time due to injury. Cavan Biggio was an awkward fit at third anyway, as he had primarily been a second baseman prior to this year and moved to accommodate the addition of Marcus Semien. If Chapman were at third, Biggio could slide back to the keystone, with Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. filling out the rest of the infield. Chapman was recently rumored to be a target of the Jays. The Jays have a catching surplus, but that may not interest Oakland with Sean Murphy already on hand. But perhaps they would be interested in Nate Pearson, who has ace potential but has struggled with injuries recently, or infield prospect Jordan Groshans, who spent all of 2021 at Double-A and should be knocking on the door of the majors next year.
Yankees: The Yankee infield is a bit of musical chairs at the moment, with the team seemingly giving up on Gleyber Torres as a shortstop. The infield right now, on paper, would be Torres at second with DJ LeMahieu at third, Gio Urshela at shortstop and Luke Voit at first. Voit doesn’t seem to have a job locked down, as the club has looked into Anthony Rizzo and Matt Olson, but they could also acquire Chapman and move LeMahieu over to first. The Yankees are also looking into top free agent shortstops, which could make prospects like Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza into trade chips that would interest the Athletics. Or perhaps Oakland would be interested in young and controllable arms, such as Michael King, Luis Gil, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia or Luis Medina.
Mets: J.D. Davis only played 73 games in 2021 due to a hand injury that sent him to the IL multiple times. When healthy, he provided his usual mix of strong offense coupled with poor defense. He was reportedly available at the trade deadline and even admitted himself that he has a “gut feeling” he won’t be with the team next year. Although even if he were to stay and the club acquired Chapman, Davis would be a good fit at DH, should the NL implement it, given his profile. With Chapman in the fold, it could allow the Mets to part with third base prospects such as Brett Baty or Mark Vientos, both of whom are close to reaching the majors.
Phillies: A year ago, it seemed like the third base job in Philadelphia was locked down for years to come, as Alec Bohm had a breakout rookie campaign in 2020. He hit a tremendous .338/.400/.481 for a wRC+ of 138. However, seemingly everything went wrong in 2021, as he dropped to .247/.305/.342 for a wRC+ of 75 and even got optioned to the minors for over a month. With the Athletics taking a step back, they could give Bohm some playing time and see if he can recapture that prior form. However, the Phillies have bigger priorities in the outfield and bullpen, which may mean that they hang on to him.
Rockies: In the first season of the post-Arenado era, Ryan McMahon got most of the playing time at the hot corner, who paired average-ish offense with excellent defense. But he’s also capable of playing second base, with Brendan Rodgers then moving to shortstop to replace Trevor Story, who is now a free agent. Chapman’s power bat moving to the high-altitude environment of Coors Field is tantalizing to imagine, and could potentially make infield prospects like Colton Welker and Elehuris Montero expendable.
Joakim Soria Retires
Right-handed pitcher Joakim Soria is retiring, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, relaying word from Soria’s agent. The 37-year-old pitched for nine different teams over 14 MLB seasons.
Soria made his MLB debut for the Kansas City Royals back in 2007, throwing 69 innings with an ERA of 2.48 and notching 17 saves. He became a mainstay of the Royals’ bullpen through the 2011 campaign. In those five seasons, he pitched 315 1/3 innings with an ERA of 2.40 and racked up 160 saves. He was an All-Star twice, in 2008 and 2010.
That would prove to be the best stretch of Soria’s career, although he continued to be an effective reliever for another decade, pitching for the Rangers, Tigers and Pirates, returning to the Royals, and then stints with White Sox, Brewers and Athletics. In 2021, he started the season with the Diamondbacks and was later traded to the Blue Jays.
Over his entire career, he threw 763 innings with an ERA of 3.11, along with 831 strikeouts and 229 saves. MLBTR congratulates Soria on a fine career and wishes him all the best in his future endeavors.