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Orioles To Sign Jordan Lyles

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The Orioles are in agreement with right-hander Jordan Lyles on a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a 2023 club option, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The deal is pending a physical, which is expected to take place after the work stoppage.  Lyles is represented by Ballengee Group.

If the Lyles deal is completed, it will mark the Orioles’ largest free agent expenditure since Mike Elias was hired as Executive Vice President and General Manager three years ago.  Elias’ previous largest free agency outlay had been a $3MM deal for Jose Iglesias.  Adding veteran Major League talent has not been a priority during Elias’ rebuild.  In 2022, Lyles and Trey Mancini figure to be the only Orioles to be paid as much as $7MM.  The Orioles have run a bottom-four payroll for the entirety of Elias’ tenure.

Drafted 38th overall by the Astros out of a South Carolina high school in 2008, Lyles peaked as a top 50 prospect prior to the 2011 season – around the time Elias moved from the Cardinals to the Astros with fellow executive Jeff Luhnow.  Luhnow ended up trading Lyles to the Rockies for Dexter Fowler in 2013.

Lyles, 31, posted a 5.15 ERA, 19 K%, 7.3 BB%, and 37.6% groundball rate in 180 innings for the Rangers this year.  There wasn’t much to like about Lyles’ season other than his taking the ball 30 times, which is a big need for an Orioles rotation with no reliable members after John Means.  After a decent 2019 season for the Pirates and Brewers, the Rangers gave Lyles a two-year, $16MM contract.  The righty struggled throughout his time in Texas.

Given that lack of success, Lyles’ contract is a bit higher than you might expect.  Perhaps that’s the cost of luring a pitcher to one of the game’s worst teams.  Lyles received more than Rich Hill or Dylan Bundy ($5MM), the same as Michael Wacha, and only $1MM less than Corey Kluber.  If the contract is completed, he’ll join Means and perhaps Bruce Zimmermann in the rotation with a cast of pitchers competing for remaining spots – unless Means is traded post-lockout.  Prize prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall should debut at some point during 2022, having both reached Double-A in ’21.

Brewers Acquire Hunter Renfroe From Red Sox For Jackie Bradley Jr., Two Prospects

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The Red Sox and Brewers announced agreement on a trade sending corner outfielder Hunter Renfroe to Milwaukee. In return, the Red Sox are reacquiring longtime center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. and two prospects, infielders David Hamilton and Alex Binelas.

It’s an out-of-the-blue swap pulled off just minutes before the work stoppage. Renfroe, 30 next month, is coming off a solid season. Signed by the Red Sox to a $3.1MM guarantee last winter, the former first-round pick emerged as Boston’s primary right fielder. He tallied 572 plate appearances and hit .259/.315/.501 with 31 home runs. By measure of wRC+, Renfroe’s overall offensive output was 14 percentage points above the league average in 2021, tied for the highest mark of his career.

Renfroe rated as a league average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved. He tied for the league lead with 16 outfield assists, often showcasing a cannon of an arm that scouts have lauded since his days as a prospect. But both DRS and Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegged his range as a bit below average, with the overall glovework coming out fairly middle-of-the-road.

Even if he’s not likely to win a Gold Glove, Renfroe is a capable right fielder who figures to assume a similar everyday role in Milwaukee. The Brewers lost Avisaíl García to the Marlins in free agency and seemed likely to rely on some combination of Bradley and Tyrone Taylor in right field. Each of Renfroe or Taylor could now spell veteran Lorenzo Cain in center field in the case of rest days or injury for the 35-year-old.

Renfroe steps in to upgrade that mix and add some punch to a Milwaukee lineup that ranked just 17th in slugging percentage this past season despite playing its home games in one of the league’s more hitter-friendly environments. He remains controllable via arbitration through the end of the 2023 season (barring changes to the service time structure in the next collective bargaining agreement). He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.6MM salary in 2022.

That’s a bit cheaper than Bradley, who will play next season on a $9.5MM deal after exercising a player option last month. Renfroe’s also coming off a far superior showing, as Bradley had a nightmarish 2021 campaign at the plate. Milwaukee signed Bradley to a two-year guarantee last offseason, but he managed only a .163/.236/.261 mark over his 428 plate appearances with the Brew Crew.

By measure of wRC+, Bradley’s offensive numbers were an astounding 65 points below league average. That ranked last among the 262 hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, with essentially nothing going right for Bradley offensively. His strikeout rate spiked to a career-high 30.8%, while his walk percentage dipped to a personal-low 6.5%. Bradley’s six home runs marked his lowest total in seven years, as did his .095 ISO (slugging minus batting average).

To his credit, Bradley continued to play his typical brand of excellent defense. The former Gold Glove winner rated as twelve runs above average over his 915 1/3 innings on the grass. Statcast, meanwhile, estimated he was worth four Outs Above Average. Yet even a gloveman as excellent as Bradley isn’t providing much overall value with an offensive showing as poor as he had in 2021.

It’s not especially surprising the Milwaukee front office was looking for opportunities to upgrade over Bradley’s spot in the lineup, and they found one via his old team. While the Brewers will add an offensive upgrade, the Red Sox bring Bradley back to Boston in hopes that a return to that environment can unlock some of his prior production. Bradley was a fan favorite and generally strong player over nearly a decade with the Red Sox, first joining the organization as a supplemental first-round pick in 2010.

Bradley became an important member of the Sox’s lineup by 2014, spending most of the next seven seasons as a regular. His highlight-reel defense in center endeared him to the Boston faithful, and the left-handed hitter occasionally flashed potential on offense. His final season with the Red Sox was one of his best, as Bradley hit .283/.364/.450 with seven homers and five steals across 217 plate appearances during the truncated 2020 campaign.

The Boston front office will take a shot on a rebound at the plate while presumably installing Bradley back into the center field mix. Doing so would free up utilityman Enrique Hernández to play second base more frequently, with Alex Verdugo and top prospect Jarren Duran flanking Bradley on the corners. Of course, the Sox could look for future additions to the position player mix, with a right-handed hitting outfielder capable of complementing the lefty-swinging trio of Verdugo, Bradley and Duran standing out as an obvious fit.

Bradley’s contract also contains a $12MM mutual option for 2023 that comes with an $8MM buyout. The Red Sox are assuming a decent chunk of guaranteed money down the line in order to acquire a pair of fairly well-regarded young position players. Each of Hamilton and Binelas was ranked by Baseball America among Milwaukee’s top 20 prospects midseason.

Hamilton, 24, was an eighth-rounder of the University of Texas in 2019. He sat out that season recovering from an Achilles rupture he’d suffered during his junior year with the Longhorns, and last year’s canceled minor league campaign meant he didn’t play in affiliated ball until 2021. The left-handed hitter split his time between High-A and Double-A, hitting .259/.341/.419 with eight homers and 52 stolen bases across 459 plate appearances. Unsurprisingly given that impressive steal tally, the 5’10” middle infielder draws strong marks from scouts for his speed and athleticism, in addition to a sound approach at the plate.

Binelas, 21, was the Brewers’ third-round pick in last summer’s draft. Regarded as a potential first round talent entering his final season at the University of Louisville, he slumped through a down year that dealt a blow to his stock. The left-handed hitter did his best to put that behind him over a brief showing in Low-A after draft day, though, hitting .314/.379/.636 with nine homers in 132 trips to the plate.

A corner infielder, Binelas spent the bulk of his time in college and in the minors at third base. BA suggested midseason it looked unlikely he’d stick at the hot corner and projected his future lying at first or perhaps in left field. Binelas will need to hit to carry that profile, but he’s flashed power, plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills in the past. His strong showing in Low-A — while somewhat to be expected for a player drafted out of one of the top conferences in college baseball — is a strong start in that regard.

Altogether, it’s a fascinating deal — likely the final swap we’ll see for quite some time with a transaction freeze now in place. The Brewers lock in a much-needed lineup upgrade to replace a player they lost on the open market. The Red Sox improve a spotty team defense while bringing back a player who’s had plenty of success in their uniform in years past, taking on a fair bit of long-term money to also add some younger talent to the organization.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Sign James Paxton

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The Red Sox continue to bolster their rotation, announcing agreement on a deal with James Paxton. It’s a one-year guarantee that also contains a club option that covers both the 2023-24 seasons. According to reports, Paxton will receive a $6MM salary in 2022. After next season, the club can choose to exercise a pair of options valued at $13MM apiece for the following two campaigns. If the team declines their end of the deal, Paxton would have the right to exercise a $4MM player option for 2023. Altogether, it’s a $10MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client that could pay him $32MM if the team exercises the options.

Paxton is coming off a pair of lost seasons. Injuries limited him to five starts in 2020, his final campaign with the Yankees. The Mariners brought Paxton back on a buy-low $8.5MM guarantee. Unfortunately, the big southpaw blew out his elbow in the second inning of his first start of 2021. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April, the second such procedure of his career.

It’s not known when Paxton will be ready to return, but he’s almost certain to begin next season on the injured list. Tommy John procedures typically require a twelve to fourteen month recovery. That general area would seem to suggest a mid-summer return for Paxton, although it’s not clear precisely where he stands in recovery.

The Sox are surely hoping Paxton will be able to contribute at some point down the stretch next season, with the power lefty ideally serving as a boost to a potential playoff run. At his best, the Canadian hurler is certainly capable of being an impact member of a club’s rotation. Paxton pitched to a 3.54 ERA over 447 innings between 2017-19, striking out a massive 30.1% of batters faced while walking only 7.3% of opponents. That’s the kind of hurler to whom teams would feel comfortable giving playoff starts, and the Boston front office is rolling the dice on him regaining some of that form.

Were Paxton to pick up where he left off in 2019, he could be a long-term play for the Red Sox. Boston picks up some additional upside in the form of the option, a two-year consideration they’ll have to decide upon next winter. It’s a single provision that, if exercised, would guarantee Paxton’s salaries for both 2023 and 2024.

It’s a risk/reward play for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff. Boston’s incumbent rotation already looked to be one of the higher-variance units around the league. Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi have both looked like top-of-the-rotation arms at their best — Sale’s one of the best pitchers of this generation, of course — but come with questions about their health. Nick Pivetta has huge stuff but a spotty track record at the big league level. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock both impressed in 2021 but come with starter/relief questions. Paxton’s addition further raises that group’s ceiling, but he’s not the kind of reliable innings-eating type one could argue Boston still needs as a stabilizer.

Chad Dey of Sportsnet first reported Paxton was in agreement with the Red Sox. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first with the $10MM guarantee, as well as the presence of the 2023-24 club option. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the option could bring the value of the deal as high as $35MM. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported the presence of the player option and specific terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Sign Michael Hermosillo

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The Cubs have re-signed outfielder Michael Hermosillo to a one-year Major League contract, per the team. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the contract is worth $600k.  The 26-year-old outfielder was not tendered a contract yesterday in advance of the MLB non-tender deadline.

The well-rounded outfielder battled injuries last season but managed a power-happy approach in his short time with the Cubs, posting a .194/.237/.500 slash line with three home runs through 38 plate appearances. This was Hermosillo’s first year with the Cubs organization after being designated for assignment by the Angels last year.

Hermosillo is presently set to team with recent Chicago addition Harold Ramirez as outfielders who can cover all three spots. As the Major League-nature of this deal indicates, however, the Cubs likely hope Hermosillo forces their hand and battles his way into a starting spot next season. Despite his sporadic action at the game’s highest level, the outfielder has proven dynamic in 203 Triple-A games, boasting an OPS of .863 with 42 home runs and 33 steals (in 47 tries).

Red Sox Sign Rich Hill

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The Red Sox announced Wednesday that they’ve signed veteran starter Rich Hill to a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $5MM guarantee that contains up to $3MM more in incentives based on innings pitched. Hill is a client of ACES.

This is remarkably the seventh different contract Hill has signed with the Red Sox. Between various stints, he’s suited up for the Sox in parts of four seasons. After pitching for Boston from 2010-12, Hill returned for a late-season cameo in 2015. That four-start stretch kicked off the remarkable late-career renaissance he has put together over the past six years.

Hill’s showing with the Red Sox earned him a rotation job in Oakland the following season. After continuing to thrive with the A’s, he landed with the Dodgers at the 2016 trade deadline. Hill re-signed with L.A. that winter, ultimately spending the next three seasons in Dodger blue. He has bounced between the Twins, Rays and Mets over the past two years.

Things will come full circle as Hill returns to Boston for his age-42 campaign. It’ll be his 18th year logging at least some major league action, a testament to his incredible longevity and persistence. Of course, that he keeps landing big league opportunities is just as much a reflection of his continued productivity.

Hill hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 since his 2016 breakout. This past season’s 3.86 mark was his highest in that time, but Hill also shouldered his heaviest workload in fourteen years. Between Tampa Bay and New York, the southpaw tallied 158 2/3 frames over 32 appearances (31 starts), a top 50 total league-wide. He did so with roughly average strikeout and walk numbers (22.7% and 8.3%, respectively).

Boston has now added three potential rotation arms on one-year guarantees this winter. The Sox signed Michael Wacha for $7MM and are reportedly in agreement with James Paxton on a $10MM guarantee that contains a 2023-24 club option. They join an incumbent group led by Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock could be options for either the rotation or the bullpen as well, giving the front office and manager Alex Cora plenty of moving pieces with which to construct a staff.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported the Red Sox and Hill were in agreement on a one-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the $5MM guarantee and possible incentives.

Dodgers Designate Sheldon Neuse For Assignment

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The Dodgers are designating infielder Sheldon Neuse for assignment, tweets Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic. The move clears 40-man roster space for Chris Taylor, whose previously-reported four-year deal has been made official.

The 26-year-old Neuse came over to the Dodgers via trade in February from the Athletics. While Neuse continued to post strong numbers in Triple-A, he struggled to find his footing at the plate while operating as a bench piece for the Dodgers. In 33 games, but just 66 plate appearances, Neuse hit .169/.182/.323 with an alarming 26 strikeouts.

The former second round draft pick will likely draw interest from other teams owing to his history of success in the upper minors, to say nothing of his versatility. Since being drafted in 2016 Neuse has played every position on the field except for catcher, center field, and pitcher. It’s not impossible Neuse returns to the Dodgers, of course, but if this is the end of his tenure in Dodger blue his LA supporters may take solace knowing the Oakland end of the trade has yet to bear much fruit either.

Phillies Sign Johan Camargo

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The Phillies are signing infielder Johan Camargo, reports MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes (Twitter link). It’s a $1.4MM guarantee. Camargo was recently non-tendered by the Braves. The Phils have since announced the move, with right-hander Adonis Medina designated for assignment to clear 40-man roster space.

Camargo’s swift signing was no doubt fueled by Major League Baseball’s decision to institute a lockout, though there are pure player merits to consider here as well. While Camargo has yet to replicate his early career success with Atlanta, he remains a viable bench option capable of covering several positions. His dominant .326/.401/.557 output in 104 Triple-A games this year likely gave the Phillies front office hope as well.

The 24-year-old Medina draws the short end of the transaction stick after a cup of coffee in the Majors and a rough showing at Triple-A. In 67 innings at the minor’s highest level, the right-hander pitched to a 5.05 ERA, continuing the trend of a rising ERA with each promotion. Medina regularly posts above average groundball rates however, and is likely to pique the interest of a front office who values that skillset, assuming he doesn’t end up remaining with the only organization he’s known.

Twins Sign Danny Coulombe, Jake Faria

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The Twins have signed a pair of pitchers to minor league contracts, tweets Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com. Left-hander Danny Coulombe and right-hander Jake Faria will join the Twins organization with invitations to Spring Training.

Coulombe should be the more familiar name among Minnesota fans, as the 32-year-old pitched for the team in both 2020 and 2021. The reunion comes on the heels of the lefty being non-tendered yesterday, but serves as a reminder that a non-tender hardly spells the end of a player’s time with an organization. Across 34 innings last season the veteran pitched to a 3.67 ERA, with the strongest command of his career (5% walk rate) and a host of roughly league average peripherals.

The 28-year-old Faria, meanwhile, contributed to a rocky Diamondbacks bullpen last season before being cut loose in late September. Through 32 innings Faria pitched to a 5.51 ERA, with the chief endorsement of his season being that his walk rate dipped to a personal-best 8.4%. For the Twins, signing Faria serves as a no-risk gamble on a player who regularly served as a starter in the minors and has some track of record of success during his time with the Rays.

Dodgers Re-Sign Chris Taylor

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The Dodgers are retaining at least one of their top free agents, announcing agreement on a four-year contract with Chris Taylor. It’s reportedly a $60MM guarantee for the Meister Sports Management client that also contains a 2026 club option which could bring the value of the deal as high as $73MM.

According to reports, Taylor will be paid $15MM salaries in each of the next two seasons, followed by successive $13MM guarantees in 2024-25. He’s also guaranteed at least a $4MM buyout on the 2026 option, which is valued at $12MM. He’d receive a $2MM assignment bonus for every time he’s traded over the course of the deal. Additionally, the value of Taylor’s option season would increase by $3MM if he’s traded within the next two seasons, by $2MM if he’s traded between the end of the 2023 and the end of the 2024 campaigns, or by $1MM if he’s traded between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2026. The option price would also escalate by $1MM if he tallies 525 plate appearances, earns an All-Star nomination or wins a Silver Slugger Award during the 2025 campaign.

Taylor’s guarantee falls a bit shy of MLBTR’s four-year, $64MM projection entering the offseason. He had hit the market as a fairly atypical free agent, having never settled into one spot on a star-studded Dodgers roster while bouncing around the diamond in a utility capacity. Despite his lack of a settled role, Taylor has gotten into the lineup on a near everyday basis, earning the organization’s trust with rare offensive punch for a utilityman.

The Dodgers acquired Taylor from the Mariners in a seemingly minor 2016 deal. That proved to be one of the more shrewd pick-ups of president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman’s tenure in L.A., though, as Taylor has been a highly productive player essentially from that moment on. The right-handed hitter has posted above-average offensive numbers (by measure of wRC+) in each of the past five seasons.

Taylor gets to that production with a strong blend of plate discipline and power. He rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone, and he’s become especially adept at drawing walks over the past few seasons. He also brings 15-20 home run power to the table despite playing in a pitcher-friendly environment in L.A. That’s helped Taylor offset higher than average strikeout rates to remain a quality offensive player.

Going back to his 2017 breakout, the Virginia native owns a .265/.343/.461 cumulative line. That’s 16 percentage points above the league average output, not far off his numbers in his platform campaign. Taylor hit .254/.344/.438 with 20 homers in 582 plate appearances in 2021, translating to a 113 wRC+ (13 points above average). He started especially hot, posting a .277/.382/.452 mark through the season’s first half en route to his first career All-Star selection.

While Taylor’s multi-year track record always looked likely to pay him handsomely this offseason, he did seem at one point as though he’d hit the market on a down note. The 31-year-old slumped to a .223/.290/.419 line over the regular season’s second half, seeing his strikeout rate spike to 33.1% in the process. But Taylor put any questions about his tough finish to rest with a monster postseason, popping four homers in 43 playoff plate appearances (including a walk-off shot in the National League Wild Card game) to help the Dodgers to the NL Championship Series.

Valuable as Taylor is offensively, he’s perhaps more well-known for his defense. Taylor has functioned as a true utility player over the years, starting games at every position other than first base and catcher. He spends the bulk of his time at the higher-value positions up the middle of the diamond, particularly at second base and in center field.

His return will give skipper Dave Roberts plenty of flexibility, and it’s likely Taylor will continue to assume that rover role now that he’s back in Dodger blue. Looking at the 2022 roster, it seems the bulk of that time could come at second base.

Taylor played very little at the keystone down the stretch after L.A. acquired Trea Turner from the Nationals at the trade deadline. With Corey Seager now in Texas, Turner looks likely to slide back to his typical shortstop position. That’d leave Taylor and Gavin Lux as the favorites for playing time at second, with either player also capable of spelling the presumptive starting outfield of AJ Pollock, Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts.

The specific breakdown of Taylor’s deal has yet to be reported, but the $15MM average annual value is the meaningful figure from a competitive balance tax perspective. Luxury tax calculations are based on deals’ AAV’s as opposed to actual payouts structures. After accounting for the Taylor deal, the Dodgers’ 2022 CBT number sits around $231MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’d have handily exceeded the $210MM first threshold in 2021, although it’s impossible to know precisely where the CBT markers will land in the next collective bargaining agreement.

The Taylor signing also has an indirect effect on the Dodgers’ 2022 draft. He’d received and rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer at the outset of the offseason. The Dodgers won’t directly forfeit a pick for re-signing their own free agent, but they are bypassing the pick they’d have received had they allowed Taylor to sign elsewhere. That’s a small price to pay for a player of Taylor’s caliber, though, particularly for the Dodgers. Because they exceeded the CBT threshold in 2021, they’d have only stood to recoup a pick after the fourth round had they allowed Taylor to walk.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Dodgers and Taylor were making progress on an agreement. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the sides had reached an agreement, as well as first with the contract terms. The Associated Press reported the specific breakdown of terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Guardians Sign Enyel De Los Santos

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The Cleveland Guardians announced that they’ve signed free agent pitcher Enyel De Los Santos to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training. The right-hander appeared in 33 games last season, splitting time with both Pennsylvania teams after Pittsburgh claimed him off waivers from the Phillies. He was subsequently outrighted off the Pirates’ roster in November and elected free agency shortly thereafter.

The 25-year-old pitched to a 6.37 ERA in 2021, demonstrating shaky control and a propensity to give up the long ball. These numbers align with his previous Major League performance, as De Los Santos was rocked in limited action with the Phils in both 2018 and 2019.

While Guardians fans may roll their eyes at this relatively modest signing, it’s not hard to see why a team would take a shot at harnessing the former Phillie’s stuff. The right-hander was a minor leaguer of some note not too long ago, participating in the 2018 Futures game and generally excelling as a starter through the Triple-A level. While his big league work out of the bullpen has left something to be desired, De Los Santos was able to post a gaudy 30.7% strikeout rate last season with Philadelphia. The newfound strikeout ability tailed off after the trade, but a second half fade was common for many pitchers after a bizarre 2020 season.

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