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Lucas Giolito Converts Club Option To Mutual Provision

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Lucas Giolito completed four innings against the Athletics tonight. That pushes him beyond 140 frames on the season, clinching a contractual milestone that’ll have an impact on the upcoming free agent class. Giolito has hit the vesting threshold needed to convert the Red Sox’s $14MM club option into a $19MM mutual option. That means he’ll be able to opt out in favor of a $1.5MM buyout and return to the open market in search of a multi-year deal.

Giolito is sure to go that route unless he suffers a major injury within the next few weeks. The 31-year-old righty is amidst his best season since he received down-ballot Cy Young votes each year between 2019-21. He has rebounded nicely from the elbow surgery that robbed him of his first year in Boston. Giolito returned this season on a $19MM player option. A Spring Training hamstring strain forced him to wait a few weeks to make his team debut, but he has been one of Boston’s most reliable starters behind Garrett Crochet over the past few months.

The righty’s first few starts were a little rocky. Giolito pitched to a 4.85 ERA across five appearances in May. He has performed well since then. Giolito has not allowed more than 3.41 earned runs per nine innings in any of the past four months. He carries a 2.86 ERA while averaging almost six innings per start in 18 appearances since the beginning of June. That doesn’t include tonight’s start, in which walks and a handful of inherited runners coming across the board left him with four earned runs through 4 2/3 innings.

All told, Giolito took a 3.30 ERA into today’s appearance. His 20% strikeout rate and 10% swinging strike mark are both a little below average. Giolito isn’t missing bats at the plus rates that he did during his early run with the White Sox, but he’s throwing strikes and working relatively deep into games. He has picked up 14 quality starts while tamping down on the home run issues that plagued him late in his time with Chicago (and during his brief stops with the Angels and Guardians in 2023).

Giolito is going into his age-31 season. He’s coming off a platform year that is arguably better than the one Luis Severino turned in for the Mets a year ago. Severino landed three years and $67MM with an opt-out after the second season. One could write that off as an anomaly by an A’s team that wanted to avoid a revenue sharing grievance and needed to overpay in the midst of a relocation. Even so, Giolito’s numbers stack up to those of Eduardo Rodriguez (four years, $80MM at age 31) and Michael Wacha (three years, $51MM at age 33) in their respective walk years.

Time will tell what kind of deal the market will bear for Giolito. His camp will probably take aim at four years. Even if that doesn’t materialize because of concerns about the dip in strikeouts or the home run issues he batted in previous seasons, he’ll easily beat the $17.5MM net call he faces in declining his end of the mutual option. That’s close to what rebound candidates like Walker Buehler, Alex Cobb and late-career Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander received last winter.

Boston can and almost certainly will tag Giolito with a qualifying offer, which would be in the $22MM range. In the likely event that Giolito declines, that’d entitle them to draft compensation. RosterResource estimates the Red Sox are narrowly above the $241MM luxury tax threshold. Assuming that’s the case, they’d receive a pick after the fourth round in 2026 if Giolito declines the QO and signs with another team.

Image courtesy of James A. Pittman, Imagn Images.

Brewers Place Jose Quintana On IL Due To Calf Strain

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The Brewers announced that left-hander Jose Quintana has been placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to September 15th, due to a left calf strain. Right-hander Nick Mears has been reinstated from the 15-day IL as the corresponding move.

Quintana started Sunday’s game against the Cardinals. He was pulled after throwing 67 pitches over four innings, having allowed three earned runs. After the game, manager Pat Murphy told members of the media that Quintana had been pulled due to a calf injury, adding that the lefty was in a walking boot and would require an MRI.

The Brewers took a few days to see how Quintana’s calf responded but have evidently decided that he’ll need to sit out a while longer. Even with the backdating, his regular season is over. He finishes the year with a 3.96 earned run average in 131 2/3 innings, though his underlying numbers are a bit less impressive than that ERA. His 9% walk rate and 43.3% ground ball rate are close to average but he only struck out 16% of batters faced. A low .259 batting average on balls in play seemed to help him, which is why his 4.83 FIP and 5.05 SIERA are both about a run higher than his ERA.

Even before the injury, Quintana wasn’t especially likely to be playing a meaningful role for Milwaukee in October. With the off-days in the postseason, teams are able to rely on just three or four starters instead of the usual five or six. Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Quinn Priester and Jacob Misiorowski are all having better seasons than Quintana.

In the short term, the Brewers are still in a good position. They have already clinched a playoff spot and seem highly likely to get a bye through the first round. They are currently 4.5 games up on the Cubs in the Central. The Brewers are eight games clear of the Dodgers, who lead the West division at the moment, in addition to being a game and a half clear of the East-leading Phillies.

To finish the job, they will need to replace Quintana in the rotation for the near term. They have Woodruff, Priester and Misiorowski taking the ball in the next three games. Peralta started yesterday and won’t be available on normal rest by Saturday. Milwaukee doesn’t have an off-day until the 25th, next Thursday.

Chad Patrick has had success as a starter this year but he is currently in the bullpen. His two most recent appearances have been of the single-inning variety but he did pitch 4 1/3 innings as recently as September 9th, so perhaps he could cover multiple innings. It’s a somewhat similar situation with guys like Erick Fedde and Tobias Myers, who have done some starting but have been in shorter stints more recently.

Another option to help out fairly soon is Robert Gasser, who is nearing a return from last summer’s Tommy John surgery. He was reinstated from the IL at the end of August but was optioned to the minors. Most of his recent minor league outings have been around three innings, at intervals of three days or so. He won’t be available for a traditional start but could cover a few frames in some capacity. “I think you’ll see him soon,” Murphy said today, per Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

Turning back to Quintana, he will presumably be trying to get healthy for the postseason. Assuming the Brewers eventually do secure a bye through the Wild Card round, he’ll have over two weeks until the Division Series begins. As mentioned, the Brewers probably don’t need him in their postseason rotation, though an injury to one of the other arms could always change that. Even if he’s not needed to make a start, he could perhaps work out of the Milwaukee bullpen.

Photo courtesy of Benny Sieu, Imagn Images

Rays Acquire Marshall Toole As PTBNL From José Caballero Trade

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Outfield prospect Marshall Toole is heading from the Yankees to the Rays, according to announcements from both clubs. He is the player to be named later from the deadline deal which sent José Caballero to the Yankees and Everson Pereira to the Rays. Toole wasn’t on the Yankees’ 40-man roster and therefore doesn’t need to take up a spot with the Rays.

Toole, 22, was a 15th-round pick of the Yankees in last year’s draft. Since that selection, he has played in 113 Single-A games, stepping to the plate 441 times. His 20.6% strikeout rate thus far is decent while his 15.2% walk rate is quite strong. His .298/.413/.462 batting line translates to a 148 wRC+. He has also stolen 52 bases in 60 tries.

Those are obviously some nice numbers but there are some caveats. That offensive production includes just six home runs and is being propped up by a massive .380 batting average on balls in play. Toole is also a bit old for his level and will face stiffer competition as he moves up the ladder. He’s not currently listed as one of the top 30 prospect in the Yankee system by Baseball America nor MLB Pipeline.

Put all together and it feels like a very Rays-style pickup, a player without a huge profile but one with some interesting tools. The club has turned a few such players into decent big league contributors over the years. Perhaps the same could be true of Toole but he’s likely a few years away since he still has to climb a few more rungs of the minor league ladder. He won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 draft until December of 2027.

Photo courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel, Imagn Images

Braves Claim Carson Ragsdale

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The Braves have claimed righty Carson Ragsdale off waivers from the Orioles, per an announcement from the O’s. Atlanta has not yet announced the move, but David O’Brien of The Athletic reports that outfielder Jake Fraley is being transferred to the 60-day IL to clear a 40-man roster spot. Baltimore designated Ragsdale for assignment on Monday.

Baltimore originally claimed Ragsdale off waivers from San Francisco following the trade deadline. The 27-year-old is a longtime Giants farmhand but never pitched in the majors until a brief three-inning cup of coffee with the O’s. He was tagged for eight runs on nine hits and a walk with two punchouts during that initial MLB audition.

A 2020 fourth-round pick by the Phillies (who traded him to the Giants for Sam Coonrod), Ragsdale has solid numbers throughout his minor league tenure but appeared to hit a roadblock in Triple-A this season, logging a sub-par 4.87 ERA with a 19.7% strikeout rate and 12% walk rate that are both worse than average. That said, he posted a 2.93 ERA in High-A and a 3.49 mark in Double-A before stumbling in Triple-A. He’s averaged 92.6 mph on his four-seamer this year and paired that pitch with a splitter and a curveball that sits in the high 70s. Ragsdale has a pair of minor league option years remaining beyond the current season.

For the Braves, Ragsdale adds some optionable depth to a rotation mix that’s been absolutely hammered by injuries this season. Spencer Strider began the year on the injured list rehabbing from last year’s UCL surgery, and he’s looked shaky in his return while also missing time due to a hamstring injury. Chris Sale was out for two months due to fractured ribs. Reynaldo Lopez made just one start before undergoing shoulder surgery. Young righty AJ Smith-Shawver underwent Tommy John surgery in June. Spencer Schwellenbach suffered a fractured elbow just a couple weeks later. Righty Grant Holmes suffered a partial tear of his UCL in late July. He’s attempting to rehab without surgery (knowing that late-July/early-August surgery would’ve wiped out his entire 2026 campaign anyhow).

There’s no guarantee that Ragsdale will last the entire offseason on Atlanta’s 40-man roster, but with so many of those pitching injuries extending into next season, it’s understandable that they’d take a late look at an optionable depth arm who won’t turn 28 until late next May. Bolstering the rotation will be a point of focus for Atlanta this offseason, but stockpiling depth in this fashion will be plenty important in its own right.

Royals Activate Cole Ragans From 60-Day Injured List

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Sept 17: The Royals have formally reinstated Ragans from the 60-day IL. Righty Luinder Avila was optioned to Triple-A Omaha to open a spot on the active roster. Ragans’ reinstatement brings Kansas City’s 40-man roster to capacity.

Sept. 16: The Royals will reinstate left-hander Cole Ragans from the 60-day injured list tomorrow, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Kansas City already has an open 40-man roster spot, so unless there are other 40-man moves coming in conjunction with Ragans’ return, they’ll only need to clear a spot on the active roster.

Ragans, 28 this offseason, has been out more than three months due to a strained rotator cuff in his left shoulder. His absence has been a major reason for Kansas City’s slide in the standings and the team’s all but certain elimination from playoff contention, although Ragans certainly hasn’t been the only rotation member to run into health woes this year.

Kris Bubic’s own rotator cuff strain ended his season in late July. Seth Lugo has had IL stints due to both finger and lower back injuries. Michael Lorenzen missed more than a month with an oblique strain. Michael Wacha has been on the concussion list for the past week but is expected to return for tonight’s game. Alec Marsh hasn’t pitched all season due to a shoulder impingement. It’s a far cry from the 2024 season, when the Royals improbably had four pitchers make at least 29 starts (and five make at least 25 starts).

Still, the loss of Ragans has arguably been the most damaging. The southpaw was sitting on an ugly 5.18 ERA in ten starts when healthy, although much of the damage against him came in his final three starts before landing on the IL with this shoulder issue. Ragans carried a 3.79 ERA into mid-May and reached double-digit strikeout figures in four of his first seven starts of the season. And, of course, the lefty’s 2024 breakout was one of the driving forces behind the Royals’ return to the postseason. Ragans pitched 186 1/3 innings with a 3.14 ERA, 29.3% strikeout rate and 8.8% walk rate across 32 starts last year, garnering an All-Star nod and fourth-place finish in Cy Young voting for his efforts.

At 75-75, the Royals haven’t been mathematically eliminated from the postseason just yet, but they’re 6.5 games out in the AL Wild Card chase with 12 games left to play. It’d take a borderline miracle for them to sneak into the field. Even with little to play for in terms of 2025 results, however, Ragans’ return gives him the chance to head into the offseason feeling that his shoulder troubles are behind him. If he looks sharp in two starts between now and season’s end, Kansas City would surely feel a bit better about its staff heading into next year. Ragans posted a 4.35 ERA and punched out 20 of the 43 hitters he faced (46.5%) across three minor league starts while rehabbing in recent weeks.

Tigers Notes: Skubal, Bullpen, Vierling

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Tigers ace Tarik Skubal gave the team a scare last week when he exited his start due to tightness in his left side. The obvious initial concern was that Skubal had suffered an oblique or intercostal strain that could necessitate a notable absence, but subsequent testing did not reveal a major injury. Several days of rest appear to have eased any discomfort the Cy Young front-runner was feeling. Skubal told the Tigers beat yesterday that he felt “100 percent” one day after a bullpen session.

“If anything, I probably worked a little bit harder just to make sure that I was good to go,” Skubal said of Monday’s bullpen session (via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). “There was nothing there. It was all good.”

Skubal added that he fully anticipates making his next start tomorrow. He called last week’s early exit “one of those weird things” and wasn’t sure what had caused the discomfort, but for now, it seems the issue is largely behind him. For a Tigers club that’s already lost Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe for the season, Skubal’s ostensibly clean bill of health creates an even greater sigh of relief.

Outside of Skubal, Detroit’s rotation has been a mess since the trade deadline. Neither Charlie Morton nor Chris Paddack, the Tigers’ two rotation additions ahead of the deadline, has bolstered the staff. Morton sports a woeful 5.92 ERA in eight starts since coming to the Motor City, and Paddack has already been moved to the bullpen after posting a 6.38 ERA in five starts. Jack Flaherty (5.14 ERA in his past eight starts) and Casey Mize (4.85 ERA in his past eight starts) have also been limping to the finish line. Overall, the Tigers’ rotation has a 4.77 ERA dating back to Aug. 1 — and that number skyrockets to 5.40 when subtracting Skubal’s contributions.

The Tigers deployed their “pitching chaos” tactic to great effect late last season, using Skubal as their lone traditional starter and otherwise deploying an all-hands-on-deck approach. They haven’t reverted to that form just yet, and it’s worth noting that both Mize and Flaherty have had some strong starts in the past couple weeks. Presumably, Flaherty and Mize are the favorites for postseason starts behind Skubal right now, but last year’s approach showed that the Tigers aren’t beholden to conventional setups with their pitching staff.

Detroit is also hoping for some reinforcements in the bullpen sooner than later. Yesterday’s injury report from the club indicated that right-hander Kyle Finnegan tossed a bullpen session yesterday. He landed on the shelf earlier this month due to an adductor strain. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press tweets that Finnegan, who tossed 14 1/3 shutout innings after being acquired from the Nationals in July, could embark on a rehab assignment in the near future.

Fellow deadline pickup Paul Sewald has already started his own rehab assignment as he works back from a July shoulder injury. He’s allowed one run and punched out four hitters in 4 2/3 innings of rehab work — most recently pitching two-thirds of an inning just last night. A return shouldn’t be too far off, barring any late setbacks.

While the updates on Skubal, Finnegan and Sewald are largely positive, the news regarding outfielder/third baseman Matt Vierling is far less rosy. Vierling, out since early August due to an oblique strain, began a minor league rehab assignment earlier this week. However, the Tigers announced in their latest injury report that Vierling has been pulled from that rehab stint after just one game due to continued soreness in his oblique region.

“I’m going to stop short of calling it a setback because I don’t know that yet,” manager AJ Hinch said last night (via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). “But it’s clearly slowed down our plan with him. He’s pretty bummed out about it and he should be. We are, too. It’s just a matter of being re-evaluated and seeing what he can tolerate and what we can hope for.”

Hinch didn’t declare Vierling out for the season but conceded that the best he could answer regarding Vierling’s playoff availability was a simple, “I don’t know.” Presumably, Detroit will have more information on his status in the next few days.

It’s been a frustrating season for Vierling, who turned 29 the same day he had to be pulled from that rehab stint. He’s been limited to just 31 games and 100 plate appearances due to a pair of shoulder injuries and a pair of strains in his left oblique. When on the active roster, he’s turned in a tepid .239/.310/.307 batting line.

That pedestrian line is a far cry from Vierling’s quietly solid .257/.312/.423 performance during a 2024 season that saw him connect on a career-high 16 home runs. Vierling also set highwater marks in doubles (28), games played (144) and plate appearances (567). On the other side of the ball, he chipped in passable glovework at third base and above-average defense across all three outfield spots. It’s still possible he makes it back to the roster, particularly if the Tigers go on a deep run in October, but a return doesn’t appear to be on the immediate horizon.

Cardinals Shut Willson Contreras Down For Remainder Of Season

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10:58am: Manager Oli Marmol confirmed to the team’s beat that Contreras is done for the season (via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). The expectation is that rest will allow Contreras’ strain to heal, and the team did not want to risk him playing through the issue and further aggravating it.

10:43am: The Cardinals announced Wednesday that first baseman Willson Contreras has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right shoulder strain. Infielder Jose Fermin is up from Triple-A Memphis to take his spot on the roster. While there’s technically still enough time on the calendar for him to return for the team’s final series (the IL move is retroactive to yesterday), Katie Woo of The Athletic reports that this IL placement will end the season for Contreras.

Assuming that’s the case, it’s been yet another solid year for the 33-year-old Contreras. The catcher-turned-first-baseman hit .257/.344/.447 (123 wRC+) with 20 homers, 31 doubles and a triple in 563 turns at the plate. His first full year at a new position has generally gone well, too. Defensive Runs Saved (+1) and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (+6) both feel that Contreras has been not only passable at first base but better than average. One would imagine that his defensive chops could continue to improve as he further acclimates to his new home on the diamond, though he’ll also play next season at age 34, so there’ll be a give-and-take between Contreras getting more experience at first base but also slowing down as he ages into his mid-30s.

Contreras joined the Cardinals in the 2022-23 offseason, signing a five-year, $87.5MM contract in free agency. He’s still guaranteed $41.5MM over the remaining two seasons of that contract, which will be paid out in the form of an $18MM salary in 2026, an $18.5MM salary in 2027 and a $5MM buyout on a $17.5MM club option for the 2028 campaign. If he continues to play quality defense at first base and produce like he has at the plate through the first three seasons of this contract, there’s a good chance the Cards would exercise that option, given that it’s a net $12.5MM decision once factoring in the buyout.

It’ll be another offseason punctuated by rumblings about potential trades of veterans in St. Louis this winter. Nolan Arenado candidly acknowledged as much this week, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested just yesterday that Brendan Donovan’s name is likely to pop up in offseason rumors as well. Contreras has complete control over his own fate, however, by virtue of the full no-trade clause that was negotiated into that free agent contract.

Contreras made clear last offseason that he wasn’t keen on waiving that clause, so it’s fair to expect that’ll be the case again this offseason as well. It’s always possible that trades of other players on the roster and/or changes to the coaching staff could lead to a change of heart, but there’s been no indication thus far that Contreras would green-light a trade out of St. Louis.

Rays Select Cole Wilcox

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The Rays have selected the contract of righty Cole Wilcox from Triple-A Durham, per a team announcement. He’ll join the bullpen and make his major league debut the first time he gets into a game. Infielder Taylor Walls was transferred from the 10-day IL to the 60-day IL to open a spot on the 40-man roster, while right-hander Joey Gerber was optioned to Durham to clear space on the active roster.

Wilcox, 26, was a third-round pick by the Padres in 2020, though that undersells his stock at the time of the draft. Wilcox “slid” into the third round due primarily to signability concerns. A draft-eligible sophomore at the University of Georgia, Wilcox was widely regarded as a first-round talent. San Diego plucked him with the No. 80 overall pick and swayed him with a $3.3MM signing bonus that was a record for a third-round pick at the time. Just five months later, he was traded to the Rays alongside Francisco Mejia, Luis Patiño and Blake Hunt in the Blake Snell blockbuster.

Things haven’t panned out for Wilcox in the years since. He was dominant for the Rays’ Class-A club in 2021 but made just 10 starts before incurring an elbow injury that eventually led to Tommy John surgery. He returned late in the 2022 season but totaled just 16 innings between the Rays’ Class-A and Rookie-level affiliates.

Wilcox spent the 2023 season pitching out of the rotation with Tampa Bay’s Double-A affiliate but struggled to a 5.23 ERA while showing far worse command than he had prior to surgery. He repeated the Double-A level in 2024 and found better success in terms of his bottom-line run prevention numbers; Wilcox dropped his ERA all the way to 3.18, but he did so with a below-average 18.9% strikeout rate. That still prompted a promotion to Triple-A, but Wilcox again struggled with shaky command and diminished stuff. His fastball, which had previously sat 94-97 mph and scraped triple digits, instead sat at 92.5 mph that season.

Tampa Bay moved Wilcox to the bullpen in 2025, and the results are more encouraging. He’s pitched to a 3.70 ERA in 58 1/3 innings. His 10.8% walk rate is still too high, but he’s averaging 95.8 mph on his sinker now that he’s moved into a short relief role. He’s also scrapped his changeup and now relies on a pure two-pitch mix featuring that sinker and a sharp slider that always graded as his best pitch in scouting reports. Wilcox has kept 50.3% of his opponents’ batted balls on the ground, and his 12.3% swinging-strike rate is better than average as well.

At the time of the Snell trade, the Rays had surely hoped that Wilcox would develop into a key member of their rotation. That no longer appears to be in the cards, but with a sinker approaching 96 mph and a quality slider that’s averaging 86.1 mph, he still has the makings of a potentially useful reliever. He’ll get his first opportunity in the majors in the final weeks of the 2025 campaign, but now that he’s on the 40-man roster, Wilcox will have a full slate of three minor league option years and ample runway to prove himself as a member of manager Kevin Cash’s relief corps in subsequent seasons.

The Opener: Giolito, Raleigh, Cubs

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day:

1. Giolito’s 2026 option:

As the Red Sox gear up for the playoffs, veteran right-hander Lucas Giolito is going to be a key part of their October rotation. His turnaround has also made it all but certain that he’ll be a free agent this winter. Giolito is now just four innings shy of reaching 140 frames on the season, at which point his $14MM club option will convert into a $19MM mutual option. Given his impressive 3.31 ERA in 24 starts for Boston this year, Giolito is a virtual lock to decline his end of that option and head back to the open market. He’ll be one of the more prominent arms in a free agent class that also features Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Ranger Suarez, Michael King and Brandon Woodruff.

2. Raleigh surpasses Mantle, goes for more history:

Cal Raleigh’s sensational 2025 season continued last night when he slugged two more home runs against the Royals in Kansas City. That puts him at 56 total long balls on the year, breaking the legendary Mickey Mantle’s record for the most home runs by a switch-hitter in a single season. Mantle had previously owned the all-time mark with 54 round-trippers. Next on the list of milestones Raleigh hopes to reach is the Mariners’ franchise record for home runs, which he currently shares with Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. Griffey hit 56 homers in back-to-back seasons in 1997 and ’98, but if Raleigh can launch just one more ball over the fence before the end of the year, he’ll take sole possession of the record. He’ll look to do just that against Royals southpaw Cole Ragans in his return from the injured list tonight.

3. Cubs go for the clinch:

National League Rookie of the Year contender Cade Horton outdueled NL Cy Young favorite Paul Skenes yesterday to give the Cubs a 4-1 win over the Pirates and push Chicago to 87 wins on the season. That victory dropped the Cubs’ magic number down to one. Any Cubs win or Diamondbacks loss would guarantee that Chicago will still be playing in October. The Cubs will be wrapping up their series against Pittsburgh with Matthew Boyd (3.05 ERA) on the mound opposite Johan Oviedo (2.81 ERA in six starts). The D-backs will wrap up a three-game set against the visiting Giants when they send righty Brandon Pfaadt (5.31 ERA) to the mound against future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander (3.94 ERA).

Cardinals Notes: Arenado, Donovan, Leahy

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Nolan Arenado is back in the Cardinals’ lineup after a six-week shoulder injury. He has started at third base each of the past two nights. He’ll probably be in the lineup for most or all of the final 10 games of the season, but the real source of intrigue will turn up again in the offseason.

Arenado is under contract for two more seasons. He’s slated for a $27MM salary next year. The Rockies are covering $5MM and another $6MM is deferred. His salary drops to $15MM for 2027, when the Rox will finally be off the hook for any portion of the deal. St. Louis would love to shed a percentage of the remaining two years and $37MM. Arenado has a full no-trade clause, and it’s a lot of money for a player whose offense has sharply declined.

Lining up a trade will be easier said than done. Arenado nevertheless acknowledged yesterday that he has thought about the possibility that this week’s homestand could be his final at Busch Stadium (via Jeff Jones of The Belleville News-Democrat). The 34-year-old noted that the organization is “heading toward young players, letting them (play).” He said he expects the upcoming offseason to be similar to last winter’s in terms of trade rumors.

Arenado did not tip his hand on his plans for the no-trade clause. He famously killed a deal to Houston last winter when he wanted more time to evaluate their direction after trading Kyle Tucker. It was believed that he only wished to go to the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres or potentially Astros when he better understood their competitive outlook.

The Yankees never showed much interest and have acquired Arenado’s old teammate Ryan McMahon to play third base. The Dodgers and Padres still have Max Muncy (via club option) and Manny Machado, respectively, under contract. Boston could lose Alex Bregman to free agency, but they’ll surely make a push to re-sign him before considering trading for Arenado. The 10-time Gold Glove winner remains a plus defender but has hit .238/.296/.370 in nearly 400 trips to the plate. It’s his worst offensive production in a 162-game season since he was a rookie.

St. Louis wouldn’t have any issue finding interest if they shopped Brendan Donovan. The lefty hitter is also controllable for two more seasons. He’s going through arbitration and will earn a raise on this year’s $2.85MM salary. He’ll presumably make something like $15MM over the next two seasons. That’s well below market value for a Gold Glove utility player who carries a .283/.351/.409 line across 492 trips to the plate.

The Cardinals never seemed to get close on a deal involving Donovan at the trade deadline. That’s despite reported interest from the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers (surely among others). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic floats the possibility of Donovan being an offseason trade candidate. Chaim Bloom will take over baseball operations from John Mozeliak at the beginning of the offseason. He’s probably not going to tear things all the way down, but there’s a case for more earnestly trying to move arbitration-eligible players like Donovan and Lars Nootbaar.

That’d especially be the case if ownership is reluctant to spend on significant rotation upgrades. They have the makings of a potentially competitive lineup. There’s a lot more work to be done on the pitching side. Matthew Liberatore leads the rotation with a 4.30 earned run average. Sonny Gray still has peripherals that look far better than his 4.43 mark, but he’s their only starter who reliably misses bats.

Liberatore’s numbers have fallen off in the second half. Michael McGreevy has a 4.44 ERA with a 14.2% strikeout rate in 79 innings. Miles Mikolas has allowed almost five earned runs per nine; they’ll probably let him walk in free agency. Ground-ball specialist Andre Pallante has had a terrible second half and should probably be in relief.

A lot of the organization’s most talented minor league arms have gone backwards this season. Quinn Mathews could get a look next year but will need to show far better command than he has in Triple-A. Tekoah Roby and Sem Robberse have each undergone Tommy John surgery. Tink Hence has yet to show that he can stay healthy. Fifth overall pick Liam Doyle is now the organization’s clear top pitching prospect but probably won’t be on the MLB radar until the middle of next season at the earliest.

The Cardinals aren’t likely to acquire four starting pitchers over the winter. They’ll need some internal arms to step up. One outside the box candidate could be Kyle Leahy. The 28-year-old has been a full-time reliever over parts of three MLB seasons. Leahy has had a breakout year while working multiple innings, tossing 81 frames of 3.33 ERA ball across 58 appearances. He has made a handful of 2-3 inning outings as one of Oli Marmol’s more trusted arms in the second half.

Katie Woo of The Athletic writes that the Cardinals have been impressed enough with Leahy that they may seriously consider him as a rotation option next season. The 6’4″ righty was a starter early in his minor league career, but he topped out at Double-A in that role. He has been a reliever since the end of the 2022 season.

Leahy is still using a six-pitch mix and has above-average control. He has been better against right-handed hitters but has limited damage reasonably well (.262/.349/.385) versus lefties. It’s not out of the question that he could succeed as a back-end starter. The Cardinals would need to weigh whether the upside of giving him that opportunity is worth removing one of the better pieces from an inexperienced bullpen with Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton and Steven Matz out of the picture.

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