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The Opener: Tucker, Cardinals, Yankees, Marlins

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Tucker market accelerating:

Kyle Tucker’s market finally appears to be picking up steam. The Mets have reportedly made a short-term offer with an average annual value as high as $50MM, while the Blue Jays have put forth a long-term offer — the details of which remain unclear. If Tucker is genuinely considering shorter-term offers, the Dodgers will surely be interested as well. Other teams like the Yankees seem to be hanging around the periphery of Tucker’s market, too, although fellow lefty-swinging outfielder Cody Bellinger appears to remain the priority over in the Bronx. With some reports suggesting that Tucker could agree to a deal before the end of the week, where will he land?

2. Cardinals move into post-Arenado era:

The Cardinals finally pulled off their long-awaited trade of likely future Hall of Famer Nolan Arenado yesterday, and in shipping him to the Diamondbacks (and paying down all but $11MM of his contract to do so) they’ll enter the 2026 season without any of the veteran All-Stars they carried in previous years on their roster. For a rebuilding club like St. Louis, that means an opportunity to give significant run to younger players like Nolan Gorman, Thomas Saggese, and top prospect JJ Wetherholt. The question for the Cardinals at this point is whether (or when) some of the club’s arbitration-eligible players, like infielder/outfielder Brendan Donovan or lefty reliever JoJo Romero, will follow Arenado out the door.

3. What’s next in the Bronx and Miami?:

The Yankees pulled off a surprising trade last night when they nabbed hard-throwing lefty Ryan Weathers from the Marlins in exchange for four lower-minors prospects led by outfielder Dillon Lewis. The deal seemingly brings to a close the Yankees’ pursuit of starting pitching help this offseason. Weathers should fortify the rotation with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodon and Clarke Schmidt all opening the season on the injured list.

With Weathers now in the fold, perhaps the Yankees can more fully focus on addressing their lineup, whether that’s with a Bellinger reunion, a pivot toward Tucker or Bo Bichette, or a pursuit of an unexpected target. As for the Marlins, they were already considering adding an innings-eating veteran starter after trading Edward Cabrera to the Cubs last week. That only figures to be become more important now that they’ve taken another valuable arm out of their rotation mix. Zack Littell, Tyler Anderson, Patrick Corbin, Jose Quintana, Tomoyuki Sugano and Chris Paddack are among the many yet-unsigned free agent starters.

Cardinals Trade Nolan Arenado To Diamondbacks

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After more than a yearlong residency on the rumor mill, Nolan Arenado’s time in St. Louis is over. The Cardinals announced Tuesday that they’ve traded Arenado and cash to the D-backs in exchange for minor league right-hander Jack Martinez (Arizona’s eighth-round pick in the 2025 draft). The Diamondbacks are reportedly on the hook for a total of $11MM of the remaining $42MM owed to Arenado over the next two seasons. The Cardinals owe the remaining $31MM. Arizona’s 40-man roster had a vacancy but is now at capacity with the addition of Arenado.

With the Cardinals entering a rebuild under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, trading the 34-year-old Arenado (35 in April) has been a primary goal this offseason. St. Louis has finally achieved that goal but paid a hefty price to do so. Arizona will be on the hook for just $5MM this season and $6MM next year.

Three years ago, a salary dump of Arenado would’ve been hard to imagine. He was a National League MVP finalist after hitting .293/.358/.533 with 30 home runs and his typical brand of elite defense during that 2022 season. His offense slipped considerably in 2023 (.266/.315/.459) but was still north of league average. It dipped to about average in 2024, however, and plummeted well below par this past season.

In 436 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2025, Arenado turned in an anemic .237/.289/.377 batting line. By measure of wRC+, he was 16% worse than an average hitter at the plate. Arenado’s 12 home runs were his lowest in a full season since his rookie year back in 2013. This year’s 6.4% walk rate was his lowest since 2015. When considering that his 34.1% chase rate on pitches off the plate was also his worst since 2015, that’s not particularly surprising. Arenado’s 11.2% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in MLB and one of the best in his career, but he also posted his highest-ever infield fly rate — 16.5% of his fly-balls were harmless pop-ups — and recorded some of the worst exit velocity and hard-hit numbers of his career.

Suffice it to say, Arenado’s decline at the plate has been steep. He still possesses plus contact skills but will need to scale back his chase rate and cut out some of those weak pop-ups if he’s to improve in a meaningful way. Fortunately for Arenado, he’s going to a more favorable offensive environment than the one he’s been calling home in St. Louis. While Phoenix’s Chase Field isn’t the hitters’ haven it once was, it plays largely neutral to right-handed power now — a stark gain for Arenado relative to St. Louis’ Busch Stadium, which is the fifth-worst park for right-handed home run power over the past three years, per Statcast’s Park Factors.

Prior to adding Arenado, the Diamondbacks had been involved in the market for Alex Bregman. A match there always seemed like something of a long shot, given Arizona’s intent to reduce payroll in 2026, but the interest was legitimate. The Snakes quickly pivoted and brought in a much more affordable option to hold down the hot corner for the next two seasons. Arenado’s glove has also taken some steps back in recent years, but he’s still an above-average defender. He’ll give manager Torey Lovullo a quality pair of defenders on the left side of the infield, joining breakout shortstop Geraldo Perdomo in that regard.

Acquiring Arenado leaves the Diamondbacks with little opportunity for former No. 6 overall pick and top prospect Jordan Lawlar. Perdomo’s breakout appeared to push Lawlar down the defensive spectrum to third base, but he looked overmatched both with the glove and in the batter’s box during his first few tests against MLB pitching. The D-backs were considering giving him some time in the outfield, and perhaps with Jake McCarthy now in Colorado following this weekend’s trade, there’ll be a clearer path to that experiment. If not, Lawlar has a minor league option remaining and can be sent back to Triple-A (where he’s routinely thrashed opposing pitchers) — or even included in a potential trade package to address needs elsewhere on the roster.

Even with the Snakes looking to cut payroll, the addition of that fraction of Arenado’s contract amounts to little more than a footnote. He’s effectively replacing a league-minimum player, so this trade adds a net $4.2MM to the team’s books. Per RosterResource’s estimates, that brings Arizona’s payroll just north of $170MM. That’s more than $17MM shy of last year’s Opening Day payroll. An exact target isn’t clear, but there should be room to add a reliever or two, at the very least, and further trades could always change the payroll outlook one way or another.

If the money changing hands (and the frequent reporting in the year-plus leading up to today’s trade) wasn’t indicative enough that this amounts to a salary dump for St. Louis, the return should be. Martinez hasn’t pitched an inning in professional ball yet. The Diamondbacks selected him with their eighth-round pick last year out of Arizona State University. His $167K signing bonus checked in south of his No. 243 overall selection’s $223K slot value.

A 6’4″, 215-pound righty, Martinez started his college career playing Division-III ball before transferring twice and ending up in the Sun Devils’ rotation as a senior. He was tagged for a 5.47 ERA through 15 starts during his senior year. It’s not an encouraging number, but Martinez punched out 32.3% of his opponents and can run his fastball up to 97 mph, per MLB.com’s scouting report. He has a four-pitch mix with a changeup serving as his best secondary offering, but Martinez is a pure lottery ticket for the Cardinals’ reshaped player development department.

A year ago, the Cardinals thought they had worked out a trade to send Arenado the Astros. Arenado, however, invoked his no-trade protection to nix that arrangement, reportedly due to reservations about the Astros’ commitment to contending; Houston had just traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs days prior to the nixed Arenado deal. Heading into the current offseason, Arenado was forthcoming about the fact that he’d be more open-minded to offseason trade scenarios than he was last winter.

That clearly seems to be the case, but the D-backs might’ve been a viable landing spot for him even if he were continuing to remain selective. Arizona may be scaling back payroll, but their signings of Merrill Kelly and Michael Soroka — plus their reported interest in the aforementioned Bregman — all signal a commitment to try to field a contender in 2026. Beyond that, Arenado is a Southern California native with a home in Arizona. There are geographic benefits that surely played into his decision to waive that no-trade clause for a move to the desert.

For the Cardinals, moving Arenado now clears a relatively nominal sum from the long-term books and furthers their goal of creating opportunities for younger players. It remains to be seen whether Arenado’s third base reps will go to Nolan Gorman, top prospect JJ Wetherholt or even former top prospect/third baseman-turned-outfielder Jordan Walker. Whoever takes up regular work at the hot corner will be a more viable long-term option at the position than Arenado is as he enters his mid-30s.

The trade of Arenado is the third of a big-name veteran on a large contract for the Cardinals this offseason. They’ve already traded Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras to the Red Sox. Those players were shipped out in separate deals, with St. Louis eating notable portions of money in those trades, too. Between Gray, Contreras and now Arenado, the Cardinals will be shelling out $59MM over the next two seasons to three players who are no longer on their books.

Eating that amount of money to facilitate the trades of three former All-Stars is unprecedented, but the Cardinals have been clear about their intent to rebuild the organization from the ground up, modernizing the player development department, analytics staff and various other components of the team’s baseball operations setup — all while affording younger and more controllable players the opportunity to establish themselves in the majors. With three pricey veterans gone, much of the heavy lifting has been taken care of, but the Cardinals are still widely expected to trade second baseman Brendan Donovan and left-handed reliever JoJo Romero before the season begins.

Katie Woo of The Athletic first reported that the two sides were in serious discussions. John Gambadoro of 98.7 FM Arizona Sports broke the news that an agreement was in place and added that Martinez was going back to St. Louis. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic first reported details on the cash changing hands.

Marlins Trade Ryan Weathers To Yankees

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The Marlins moved another starter, trading Ryan Weathers to the Yankees for four prospects: outfielders Dillon Lewis and Brendan Jones and infielders Dylan Jasso and Juan Matheus. New York already had two openings on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves were necessary. Both teams have announced the deal.

It’s the second significant rotation move in as many weeks for Miami. The Fish swapped Edward Cabrera to the Cubs for a package led by rookie outfielder Owen Caissie on Wednesday. It’s surprising to see them pull the trigger on another deal to subtract a controllable starter. Cabrera and Weathers have each had trouble staying healthy, and Miami evidently preferred to stockpile position players over the pair of talented but risky starters.

Weathers, a 26-year-old lefty, is the son of longtime big leaguer David Weathers (who coincidentally was traded from the Florida Marlins to the Yankees at the 1996 deadline). This is the second time that Ryan Weathers finds himself on the move. The Padres selected him with the #7 overall pick in the 2018 draft. He made it to the majors within three years, no small feat for a pitcher who signed out of high school, but struggled in scattered looks with San Diego. The Friars dealt him to Miami at the ’23 deadline for first baseman Garrett Cooper.

The Weathers acquisition came a few months before Miami installed Peter Bendix atop baseball operations. Weathers has shown mid-rotation potential over the past couple seasons but hasn’t been able to put together a full showing. A strained index finger on his throwing hand cost him three months in 2024. He missed the first six weeks last year after suffering a forearm strain during Spring Training. Weathers returned and pitched well over five starts before going down again — this time with a lat strain that knocked him out into September.

Weathers has been limited to 24 starts and 125 innings over the past two years. He turned in a 3.74 earned run average with a solid 22% strikeout rate and lower than average 6.8% walk percentage. Weathers has pushed his average fastball into the 96-97 MPH range and can miss bats with his changeup and sweeper. At full health, he has looked like a potential third or fourth starter. He hasn’t been healthy for more than a couple months at a time since 2023.

Miami and Weathers settled on a $1.35MM salary last week. This offseason was his first of arbitration eligibility. He’ll go through the process at least twice more and won’t hit free agency until the 2028-29 offseason at the earliest. The Yankees are currently in the third tier of luxury tax penalization and taxed at a 95% rate on spending up to $304MM. Weathers’ modest salary means New York only takes on roughly $1.3MM in taxes to add him.

There’s also some roster flexibility, as the southpaw has one minor league option remaining. Weathers should break camp in Aaron Boone’s rotation assuming he gets through Spring Training healthy. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón will open the season on the injured list, while Clarke Schmidt could miss the entire year after last July’s Tommy John procedure. Weathers slots alongside Will Warren and Luis Gil as their projected third through fifth starters behind Max Fried and Cam Schlittler. Any of Weathers, Warren or Gil could be optioned to Triple-A if everyone’s healthy once Rodón and/or Cole return.

The trade should increase Miami’s urgency to add an affordable starter via free agency. Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara are the only two locks for Clayton McCullough’s season-opening rotation. Braxton Garrett (internal brace) and Max Meyer (hip surgery) missed most or all of the 2025 season. They’re expected to be ready for Opening Day but should be on innings limits. Journeyman Janson Junk was a decent fifth starter, while Ryan Gusto and Adam Mazur have limited MLB experience.

There’s more upside coming through the pipeline. Highly-regarded prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling have reached Triple-A. Snelling dominated over 11 starts there and has a strong chance to win a rotation spot out of Spring Training. Former second-rounder Dax Fulton is on the 40-man roster and has also reached Triple-A, though he’s coming off a less impressive season in the high minors.

It remains a high-ceiling group, especially once White and Snelling take the mound at loanDepot Park. They’re short a veteran at the back end whom they can rely upon for some innings. It’s likely they’ll dip into free agency for a starter on a one-year deal, as they did last winter with the Cal Quantrill signing. They should aim a little higher this time around since it’s not out of the question they compete for a playoff spot in 2026. Maybe a multi-year deal candidate like Zack Littell or Nick Martinez winds up dropping into their price range as Spring Training approaches. Jose Quintana, Martín Pérez and former Miami draftee Chris Paddack are all locks for one-year deals and would be more comparable to the Quantrill pickup.

Lewis is the biggest get of the four prospects. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported last week that Miami evaluators were particularly bullish on the 22-year-old outfielder. His name came up in conversations between the teams when New York was pursuing Cabrera. While they didn’t find an agreeable package in those conversations, the Marlins found another way to add Lewis to the system.

A right-handed hitter, Lewis was a 13th-round pick in 2024 out of Queens University of Charlotte. While he didn’t enter pro ball with a ton of fanfare, he impressed pro scouts during his first full season. Baseball America recently ranked him eighth among Yankees prospects, while he slotted 16th in the system at MLB Pipeline.

Evaluators praise his center field defense and big exit velocities that hint at the raw power upside in his 6’3″ frame. He’s coming off a .237/.321/.445 slash with 22 home runs and 26 stolen bases in a pitcher-friendly setting in the low minors. Lewis struck out at a higher than average 23.5% rate, which is concerning for a college draftee who has yet to advance beyond High-A. There’s a decent amount of risk with questions about his hit tool and distance from the majors, but he’s another toolsy outfield pickup for a club that added Caissie last week.

Jones was another late-round college pick in 2024. A left-handed hitting center fielder out of Kansas State, he combined for a .245/.359/.395 line between High-A and Double-A. Jones walked in almost 15% of his plate appearances and stole 51 bases in 60 attempts. He’s listed at 5’10” and doesn’t have Lewis’ physical upside, but scouts praise his approach and speed. Baseball America ranked him 13th in the Yankees system, while he landed 15th on Pipeline’s ranking. There’s a decent chance he ends up as a fourth outfielder.

Jasso, 23, is a right-handed hitting corner infielder who spent last season in Double-A. He had a solid year, batting .257/.326/.400 with 13 homers. Jasso was a 2023 undrafted free agent whose minor league performance landed him in the back third of New York’s top 30 prospects. He should begin the season at Triple-A Jacksonville and could find himself in the MLB mix by the end of the year. He’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next winter.

Miami rounds out the return with Matheus, a 21-year-old shortstop/third baseman out of Venezuela. The switch-hitter put together a .275/.365/.376 line with a 12.3% walk rate and 18.5% strikeout percentage in A-ball last year. Matheus is on the smaller side at 5’10” and hasn’t hit for more than five home runs in a season. He’s a lottery ticket potential utility player who’ll also be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after the ’26 season.

Jack Curry of The Yes Network first reported the Yankees were acquiring Weathers for four prospects. Craig Mish of SportsGrid had the full return. Image courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images.

Angels Re-Sign Shaun Anderson To Minor League Deal

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The Angels re-signed righty Shaun Anderson to a minor league deal (h/t to Matt Eddy of Baseball America). The MiLB.com transaction log indicates the deal was agreed upon shortly before the New Year.

Anderson is back in the organization after bouncing on and off the roster in 2025. He worked out of the rotation at Triple-A Salt Lake for the majority of the season. Anderson took the ball 24 times and tossed 116 2/3 innings of 6.02 ERA ball in the Pacific Coast League. He had a below-average 16.7% strikeout rate but generally avoided walks and did a decent job keeping the ball in the park in the minors.

The Halos called upon the 31-year-old a couple times when they needed an extra arm to work in long relief. Anderson made seven appearances over scattered MLB stints. He was tagged for six homers in 11 1/3 innings, allowing 13 runs in the process.

Anderson has pitched in the big leagues in six of the last seven years. He owns a 6.39 ERA over 163 1/3 frames. He spent the ’23 season in Korea as a member of the Kia Tigers and owns a 4.35 earned run average over parts of seven Triple-A campaigns. He’ll head back to Salt Lake as rotation depth.

Rockies Finalize Coaching Staff

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The Rockies announced their full coaching staff this evening. The majority of Warren Schaeffer’s group had previously been reported, but Colorado’s hiring of first base coach Doug Bernier is a new development. Thomas Harding of MLB.com reported the hire shortly before the club finalized it.

Bernier had a brief run as a big league infielder, which began with four games with the Rox in 2008. He also played parts of three seasons with the Twins but was primarily an organizational depth player. While Bernier’s MLB career consisted of 46 games, he made exactly 1000 appearances at the Triple-A level over 11 seasons. Bernier ended his playing career after the 2017 season and jumped into scouting with the Rockies a year later.

The 45-year-old has been employed by Colorado for the past eight seasons. Bernier worked as a bridge between the coaching staff and analytics department as game planning coordinator from 2020-21. He worked as a defensive instructor for two seasons and has spent the last couple years as a minor league field coordinator.

Ron Gideon had been Colorado’s first base coach for the past seven seasons. The Rox announced last month that he was assuming the newly created role of assistant bench coach in 2026. Colorado had already announced that third base coach Andy González would be back in his previous role. Assistant hitting coach Jordan Pacheco is also returning. Bench coach Jeff Pickler, hitting coach Brett Pill, pitching coach Alon Leichman, assistant pitching coach Gabe Ribas, and bullpen coach Matt Buschmann are entering their first seasons with the club.

Royals Moving In Outfield Fences At Kauffman Stadium

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The Royals announced they’re moving in the outfield fence in both corners (link via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported the decision before the club announcement. The dead center field wall will remain 410 feet from home plate, though the team is slightly reducing the wall height throughout the outfield. The corners are each being pulled in by nine feet, while they’re bringing in the center field alleys by 10 feet apiece.

General manager J.J. Picollo said it’s a calculated effort on the team’s part to improve their offense. “During the course of the season, we just started doing some research, running some numbers and trying to figure out how much this really impacts our offense. Consequently, how would it affect our pitching staff? Ultimately, we concluded that we would be a better team offensively,” Picollo told Rogers. “With our current pitching staff, the changes in the dimensions wouldn’t impact [pitching] negatively as much as it impacts our offense positively.”

Kauffman Stadium has a reputation as one of the harder parks in which to hit. Statcast’s Park Factor data has actually graded it as a decent hitter’s park over the past three years. It’s in a lopsided way, however. The spacious outfield has made the park more favorable for total hits, especially doubles and triples, but it’s a tough venue for power bats. Only Pittsburgh’s PNC Park and San Francisco’s Oracle Park have suppressed home runs more than Kauffman since 2023. Hitters at Kauffman Stadium have homered on 9.7% of their fly-balls. The MLB average is a couple points higher (11.8%).

It grades as the toughest park for left-handed home run power. The change in dimensions should be a nice boost for a team that has lefty-hitting Jac Caglianone and Carter Jensen as two of their most important young bats. Left-handed hitting first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino is coming off a 32-homer season (14 of which came at home) that led the team.

There’s a “chicken or the egg” element to the park factor data. Kauffman has played unfavorably to home run hitters, so the Royals have tended to build their teams around contact-oriented bats and emphasized outfield defense. The Royals are aware of that, of course, and the ballpark changes aren’t a decision they made on a whim. Those interested in the topic are encouraged to read the full columns from Rogers and Passan, as both reporters speak with assistant GM Daniel Mack about the various factors (e.g. temperature, altitude, batted ball data, the stadium’s batter’s eye) that went into the decision.

Picollo and Mack each said they hope the park will play more neutral for home runs than exceedingly hitter friendly. They indicated they feel that could allow their hitters to be more comfortable adjusting between homestands and road trips without feeling they need to overhaul their approach.

“You don’t want to make the park so offensive that it hurts your pitchers,” Mack told Rogers. “But one of the things we know is that our fly balls, particularly in parts of this park — the run value per fly ball is significantly less than the league. … When they play at Kauffman, they don’t have to play one specific way, and then when they go to another ballpark, even if it’s way on the other extreme, all of a sudden, they’re thinking about, ‘Do I have to do something different offensively there in order to be successful versus what I do at Kauffman?’ (We’re) trying to find that fairness and consistency across the board.”

Rodolfo Castro To Sign With NPB’s Nippon-Ham Fighters

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The Blue Jays released infielder Rodolfo Castro from his minor league contract, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports that Castro is pursuing an opportunity with the Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan.

Castro had just signed with Toronto a couple months ago. Rather than try to earn his way into a crowded infield picture as a non-roster invitee, he’ll collect a guaranteed salary and head to Asia for the first time in his career. Castro has played parts of four seasons in the big leagues. The majority of that has come with the Pirates, who traded him to Philadelphia at the 2023 deadline. He made just 14 appearances for the Phils down the stretch and has not played in the leagues within the past two years.

The righty-hitting infielder was in Triple-A when he suffered a season-ending thumb injury in 2024. Philadelphia dropped him from the 40-man roster that offseason. Castro played the entire ’25 season with their top affiliate in Lehigh Valley. He hit .235/.324/.421 with 19 homers and 18 stolen bases. Castro qualified for minor league free agency and would likely have been at Triple-A Buffalo had he not gotten the NPB opportunity.

Mets Reportedly Offer Kyle Tucker Short-Term Deal With $50MM AAV; Jays Have Made Long-Term Offer

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5:15pm: The Jays have made Tucker a long-term offer, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN, though no details on that offer have been reported.

1:35pm: The Mets have made Tucker an offer with a $50MM AAV, per reports from John Mincone as well as Robert Murray of FanSided.

11:37am: The top free agent of the offseason is still unsigned with about a month to go until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Some recent reporting, including from Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio, has suggested the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Mets are the top suitors for Kyle Tucker at this point. All three have recently met with Tucker, either in person or over Zoom, per Duquette. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports today that the Mets are in the range of offering him $120MM to $140MM on a three-year deal. Sammon says the Mets could go higher and that Tucker could make his decision as soon as this week.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Tucker for a $400MM guarantee on an 11-year deal. That would be $36.36MM in terms of average annual value, paying him from his age-29 through age-39 seasons. That would be in line with other big deals for star-caliber position players.

In the past decade, eight position players have signed for nine years or longer: Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Manny Machado, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. Ohtani got a $70MM AAV but with significant deferrals, knocking the net present value closer to the $45MM range. Soto got $51MM and Judge $40MM. The others were in the $25-35MM range.

It’s unknown what the Blue Jays or Dodgers are willing to offer Tucker but he remains unsigned into mid-January, meaning he hasn’t yet received an offer compelling enough for him to have put pen to paper.

In recent years, it’s become a standard move for a free agent with an underwhelming market to pivot to a short-term pact with high AAVs and opt-outs. Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Pete Alonso have gone down this road in recent years. Everyone in that group apart from Alonso took a three-year deal. Bregman’s was technically for $40MM annually but with deferrals knocking the NPV to the $30MM range. Correa had a $35.1MM AAV, Bellinger $26.7MM and Chapman $18MM. Alonso’s two-year deal had a $27MM AAV.

The plan in that case is to bank a decent amount of money before taking another crack at free agency. The hope would be to then have more luck finding a long-term deal with a better platform season and no longer being tied to qualifying offer penalties. A player can only receive a qualifying offer once in his career. Tucker just rejected a QO from the Cubs and whoever signs him now will be subject to the associated penalties.

This doesn’t always work out but has in many cases. Chapman eventually signed a $151MM extension with the Giants just before returning to free agency. Correa was going to get a $325MM deal from the Giants. Concerns about his physical put the kibosh on that but he still got a $200MM guarantee from the Twins. This winter, Alonso got $155MM from the Orioles. Bregman just got $175MM from the Cubs, though with deferrals knocking the NPV to somewhere in the $150MM range.

There’s also appeal for the team. They have to pay a premium salary and usually forfeit a draft pick or two, and maybe some international bonus pool space as well, but they avoid a long-term commitment. Since players generally decline in productivity as they push through their 30s, it’s understandable for a team to look to avoid length.

Sammon doesn’t mention opt-outs in his piece on the Mets’ offer but that would presumably be a component. From Tucker’s perspective, he’s coming off a couple of seasons undercut by injuries but is still relatively young, going into his age-29 season. A three-year deal with no opt-outs would see him return to free agency ahead of his age-32 season, whereas opt-outs would allow him to try the market again quicker.

Whether he and his representatives have any appetite for that kind of path is unknown. It’s perhaps worth mentioning that the five aforementioned guys who took short-term deals were all Boras Corporation clients. He’s also gone down that road with pitchers such as Blake Snell, Carlos Rodón and Jordan Montgomery. Tucker is not a Boras guy, as he’s represented by Excel Sports Management.

Perhaps Tucker would consider a short-term pact but that also depends what the other offers are. It has been speculated that the Dodgers would also prefer a short-term deal. They could use an outfield upgrade but their roster is one of the older ones in the league and they have a batch of top outfield prospects. Those prospects don’t offer immediate help, as most of them have only recently reached the Double-A level or haven’t even hit that run at all. A short-term deal for Tucker could allow them to upgrade on the grass until those younger guys become more viable big leaguers.

It’s been speculated that the Jays would be more willing to go a long-term deal. They recently signed Kazuma Okamoto but it was reported a week ago that they are still aggressively pursuing Tucker even after landing Okamoto. Toronto has spent aggressively this winter after making it to the World Series in 2025. They gave a nine-figure deal to Dylan Cease, then eight-figure deals to Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers and Okamoto. That has pushed their payroll to new heights but that could be a byproduct of their deep run last year.

They also have a lot of money coming off the books after 2026, as George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Yimi García, Daulton Varsho and Eric Lauer are impending free agents. Myles Straw would also depart if his club option is turned down and José Berríos can opt out of his deal. That could prompt the Jays to be doubly aggressive now, while they still have all of that talent on the roster.

Next winter doesn’t really have a Tucker-level talent and is also likely to be disrupted by the lockout. If Tucker were to sign a short-term deal, he could again be the top free agent a year from now but would also throw himself into the lockout winter. A long-term pact would keep him away from whatever disruptions are coming a year from now.

For the Mets, they seemingly prefer to avoid long-term pacts at the moment. Since David Stearns has become president of baseball operations, they made an exception for the 26-year-old Soto but have otherwise not signed any deal longer than three years.

They certainly need help in the outfield though. They traded Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers for Marcus Semien. They currently have Soto in one corner and Tyrone Taylor in center. Prospect Carson Benge could seize an Opening Day job but he can play center. If Tucker were brought in to take one corner with Soto in the other, Benge and Taylor could have a spring battle for the center field gig. If Taylor were to win, Benge could get more Triple-A reps. If Benge were to win, Taylor could become a fourth outfielder.

Financially, there’s no real limit to what they could do. Owner Steve Cohen has shown himself willing to run the Mets up to having the top payroll in the league. They’ve had a fairly modest offseason, defined more by subtraction than addition. They sent out Nimmo and Jeff McNeil while also letting Alonso and Edwin Díaz sign elsewhere.

RosterResource projects them for a payroll of $295MM and a competitive balance tax number of $296MM. Those are big figures but the Mets finished 2025 at $340MM and $337MM in those categories, respectively. Paying Tucker something between $40MM and $47MM annually would get them right back around to last year’s range.

It would also presumably do a lot to quell the fan base, who are currently not thrilled by the familiar faces who have departed in the past few months. It would also prevent them from adding another big salary to the long-term books, as they are already set to pay Soto and Francisco Lindor huge annual sums through 2039 and 2031 respectively.

Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images

Reds Sign Will Banfield, Hagen Danner To Minor League Deals

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The Reds announced a number of non-roster invitees to spring training today. In addition to some names already covered by MLBTR, catcher Will Banfield and right-hander Hagen Danner are on the list. That indicates the Reds have signed those players to minor league deals.

Banfield, 26, just got to make his major league debut with the Reds last year. He got into seven games and made ten plate appearances. He struck out six times and grounded into a double play but also collected one hit, a single. The Reds non-tendered him in November, which sent him to waivers without him being exposed to waivers. They have now brought him back into the organization in a non-roster capacity.

He has never been a huge hitter, though he did launch 23 home runs at the Double-A level in 2023. He was once a notable prospect in the Marlins’ system thanks mostly to his strong defensive reputation.

The Reds have a catching group consisting of Tyler Stephenson, Jose Trevino and Ben Rortvedt. No one in that group can be optioned to the minors, so the Reds will need to have a three-catcher setup or bump someone off the roster, unless an injury changes the picture. However it plays out, Banfield gives the club a glove-first depth catcher. If he’s later added to the roster, he still has options.

Danner, 27, still has a limited track record. He was drafted by the Blue Jays as a catcher but stalled out and got moved to the mound. He got to make his major league debut with Toronto in 2023 but tossed just a third of an inning. In the minors, he has generally had decent strikeout and walks rates. From 2021 to 2024, he tossed 114 minor league innings with a flat earned run average of 3.00. He struck out 28.8% of batters faced with an 8.3% walk rate.

The Jays bumped him off the 40-man going into the 2025 season. The Mariners claimed him off waivers and then later outrighted him. He spent last year at Triple-A Tacoma, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. He logged 56 1/3 innings for that club with a 5.59 ERA, 21.4% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate. He didn’t get his roster spot back by the end of the year and became a free agent. For the Reds, there’s no harm in a non-roster pact to add some more depth. If Danner gets a roster spot at some point, he is out of options.

Photo courtesy of Katie Stratman, Imagn Images

Cardinals Sign Ryne Stanek

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January 13: Bloom announced to the media today that the Stanek deal is official. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat was among those to pass it along. The Cards opened a 40-man spot by trading Nolan Arenado to the Diamondbacks earlier today.

January 10: Stanek will earn $3.5MM in 2026, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deal also includes a $6MM club option for 2027.

January 9: The Cardinals are in agreement with free agent reliever Ryne Stanek, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported that St. Louis was pursuing the hard-throwing righty. The Cardinals will need to open a 40-man roster spot once the MVP Sports Group client completes a physical.

Stanek gets a change of scenery after an inconsistent year and a half with the Mets. New York acquired him from the Mariners at the 2024 trade deadline. While he allowed 11 runs in 16 1/3 regular season innings down the stretch, Stanek’s plus strikeout rate and strong postseason work led the Mets to bring him back on a $4.5MM free agent deal.

That didn’t pan out, as the 34-year-old had an up-and-down season. Stanek had strong run prevention marks in May and July but was knocked around in the other four months. He finished with a 5.30 earned run average across 56 innings. ERA estimators were only slightly more bullish as Stanek’s strikeout and walk rates each went in the wrong direction.

A 22.7% strikeout rate was narrowly the lowest of his nine-year career. Stanek had fanned nearly 28% of opposing hitters one season earlier. It’s crucial that he miss bats because command has never been a strong suit. Stanek has walked at least 10% of batters faced in all but one year, including a 12.5% mark last season.

The Cardinals are taking what should be a low-cost bet that he’ll strike out more batters in 2026. Stanek still has the stuff to do that. He averaged 98.5 MPH on his heater, a top 15 mark in MLB. He backs that up with a plus slider and mixes in a splitter and sweeper as his third and fourth offerings. Stanek still missed bats at a slightly above-average rate on a per pitch basis.

St. Louis doesn’t have a ton of experienced arms in the late innings. Southpaw JoJo Romero had been their only reliever with even two years of MLB service. There’s a decent chance he’s traded before Opening Day. The Cardinals were looking for a veteran arm who can pitch in the back half of the bullpen. Stanek fits best in middle relief but could be in the high-leverage mix, perhaps even as a closer, on a rebuilding club. He’s a known commodity to president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, who was in the Rays front office when Tampa Bay drafted him in the first round in 2013.

There’s also a geographic tie. Stanek was born in St. Louis and went to high school not far outside Missouri in Stilwell, Kansas. There’s a decent chance he’ll be traded midseason if he’s pitching well, but he’ll get a chance to play for his hometown club for at least a few months.

Image courtesy of Gregory Fisher, Imagn Images.

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