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The Opener: QO Deadline, Rule 5 Protection Deadline, Naylor

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Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Deadline for qualifying offer decisions:

Today’s the deadline for players who were extended the qualifying offer to make their decisions on whether to accept the QO or head into free agency encumbered by draft pick compensation. The majority of the 13 players who received a QO will reject it without much thought, but there are a handful of edge cases who could at least consider accepting the one-year, $22.05MM deal rather than testing the open market. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco conducted a poll of MLBTR readers last night that suggested fans believe Tigers second baseman Gleyber Torres is the most likely player to accept. That’s MLBTR’s own judgment, as well; Torres was the only player we predicted would accept the QO in our Top 50 MLB free agents list. Shota Imanaga, Zac Gallen, and Trent Grisham are among the other players who could plausibly opt to accept the QO today.

2. Rule 5 protection deadline:

Today isn’t just the deadline for QO decisions. While the QO decisions get much of the attention, today’s deadline on protecting prospects from the Rule 5 draft by adding them to the 40-man roster figures to impact every club in the league. Teams with cluttered 40-man rosters will be looking to either trade Rule 5 eligible prospects they can’t fit on the roster or discard players already on the 40-man to make room for those prospects. Meanwhile, teams with plenty of 40-man roster space will be looking for the opportunity to add players squeezed out of other organizations to their own rosters. While the Rule 5 draft itself won’t occur until the Winter Meetings next month, today’s efforts to protect players from it figure to spark plenty of movement around the league.

3. Naylor introductory press conference:

Josh Naylor’s five-year deal with the Mariners is now official. As a result, the Mariners are hosting a press conference to officially re-introduce Naylor to the media as a long-term member of the organization later today. Naylor himself will be present, of course, as well as his agent, president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander. Dipoto and Hollander’s presence could leave the door open for hints towards the Mariners’ plans for the rest of their offseason, which could offer insight onto how they’ll continue to build on this year’s team after missing the World Series by just one game and making one of the largest free agent investments of Dipoto’s tenure with the organization into Naylor.

The Padres Need To Make A Decision On Luis Campusano

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Is Luis Campusano a part of the Padres’ future? President of baseball operations A.J. Preller says he is. “He’s going to be in our mix next year, for sure,” Preller said last month, per Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “I’m hoping his experiences this year are going to help him overall as a player.”

Those words don’t align with the club’s actions, as they haven’t shown much faith in him. Campusano was a top 100 prospect a few years ago. He got cups of coffee from 2020 to 2022, never topping 16 games played in any of those seasons. He was called up late in 2020 and didn’t use an option that year, but he burned two of his three options in the following seasons.

In 2023, he was up with the big league club all year but spent a lot of time on the injured list. He was only healthy enough to play in 49 games but put up a huge .319/.356/.491 line and 133 wRC+ in that sample. His defensive grades weren’t great but that offense was certainly enticing. His .331 batting average on balls in play was on the high side but he also had a small 12.1% strikeout rate, meaning he put the ball in play a lot.

The following season was a disappointment, however. He got into 91 games, his biggest sample of big league work to date. His batted ball luck flipped the other way, as his BABIP dropped to .240. That wasn’t just luck as his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard hit rate all dropped compared to the prior season. He finished the year with a .227/.281/.361 line and 83 wRC+. That kind of offense would have been passable for a glove-first backstop but Campusano was not that. He had a fielding run value of minus-13 and was also credited with minus-17 Defensive Runs Saved, making him one of the worst defensive catchers in the majors that year.

That performance understandably led to a reduction in playing time but he stayed on the roster for a while as Kyle Higashioka and Elias Díaz handled the catching duties. The Padres optioned Campusano to the minors on September 11th, which was seemingly not a coincidence. A player doesn’t burn an option year unless he spends at least 20 days on optional assignment. When the Friars sent Campusano down last year, there were 19 days left on the schedule.

That left Campusano still with one option remaining going into 2025 and they seemed determined to use it. They re-signed Díaz and also signed Martín Maldonado to be the catchers at the big league level. Campusano was optioned to the minors to start the year.

Seemingly, the plan was for Campusano to be honing his craft with Triple-A El Paso but the Padres also made some curious decisions in that context. He was recalled in early May as the Padres had some injuries, not to any of their catchers, but he was optioned back down three days later. He was recalled again in late May and was up with the club for three weeks but only got into six games with 14 plate appearances before getting optioned back down in the middle of June. He was recalled again for a couple of days in July when Gavin Sheets went on the paternity list, getting optioned back down a couple of days later.

Ahead of the deadline, the Padres acquired Freddy Fermin from the Royals. Maldonado was designated for assignment, leaving the Friars with Fermin and Díaz for the stretch run. They re-signed Maldonado to a minor league deal at the end of August. At the end of September, Díaz seemed to be banged up with an oblique injury and he was excluded from the club’s Wild Card roster. Campusano was called up but the club also selected Maldonado back to the roster, giving them three backstops for their series against the Cubs. Fermin got all the playing time behind the plate in that series.

All of this happened while Campusano crushed Triple-A pitching in 2025. He was aided by a .370 BABIP but his 15.2% walk rate and 17.3% strikeout rate were both great figures. He hit 25 home runs in 475 plate appearances. Even in the context of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, his .336/.441/.595 line translated to a 148 wRC+.

Despite those monstrous numbers, the Padres mostly kept him in El Paso. When they did call him up, he hardly played. They didn’t put him behind the plate in the big leagues at any point this year. They kept rolling with Díaz, Fermin and Maldonado despite none of those three guys hitting. Maldonado, in fact, has been one of the worst hitters in the majors throughout much of his career.

Both Díaz and Maldonado reached free agency at the end of the 2025 season, with Maldonado announcing his retirement shortly thereafter. That leaves Fermin and Campusano as the two catchers on the 40-man roster. Ethan Salas is one of the club’s top prospects but he is only 19 years old and has barely played above High-A. He may be the future but a promotion in 2026 would be ambitious.

Campusano is now 27 years old and out of options, meaning he can’t be easily sent down to El Paso any longer. He actually qualified for arbitration a year ago as a Super Two player, so the Friars paid him $1MM in 2025. Since he hardly played in the majors this year, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to make the same salary in 2026. Friday is the non-tender deadline, giving the Padres a few more days to decide whether or not to tender him a contract again.

The Padres clearly didn’t trust Campusano to be a big league catcher in 2025. They didn’t put him back there at any point and opted for light-hitting veterans instead. They presumably were still hoping to make him a long-term catcher, as they played him there in Triple-A, along with some time at first base. However, they also interrupted his Triple-A routine with sporadic call-ups that featured little playing time. If they were committed to having him maximize his glovework in 2025, then those recalls stand out as odd choices.

If Campusano does survive the winter and comes into camp with the Padres in 2026, is he the backup catcher? If he’s going to be more in the first base/DH mix, they probably would need to add a veteran backstop, which is less than ideal roster construction. Also, even veterans without much upside cost a few million. They had to give Díaz a $3.5MM guarantee last offseason, for instance. That’s not much in baseball terms but it’s notable for a club with ongoing payroll concerns.

There’s an argument for trading Campusano. A rebuilding club without a clear solution behind the plate, such as the Nationals or Twins, could take him on. One of those clubs could let Campusano have some run at the catcher position to see what happens. However, they’re not likely to give up much for a such a flier.

The Padres could tender Campusano a contract and then try to run him through waivers. Since he has at least three years of service time, he has the right to reject outright assignments in favor of electing free agency. However, since he has less than five years of service, he would have to walk away from his remaining salary commitments in order to exercise that right. In the scenario where he has been tendered a contract and is slated to make about $1MM in 2026, he would presumably accept, allowing the Padres to keep him as non-roster depth. However, given his track record and three remaining years of club control, it’s no guarantee he would clear.

Put it all together and the Padres should seemingly pick a lane. If one takes Preller at his word, they already have. With a tight budget and question marks in the rotation, perhaps they will stick with Campusano and find a role for him. But they just finished a season during which they didn’t trust him to catch, despite needing clear upgrades there. Even when he was called up, he didn’t get a lot of at-bats. That doesn’t bode well for him serving as a bat-first bench piece, especially with teams usually preferring to have a bit of defensive versatility from their reserves.

If he gets squeezed off the roster, he’ll be destined for the trade block, the waiver wire or perhaps he’ll just be non-tendered later this week. If he does end up departing San Diego, he’ll be an interesting change-of-scenery candidate. Perhaps there will be some clarity on his status in the coming days.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images

Diamondbacks Outright Christian Montes De Oca

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The Diamondbacks outrighted reliever Christian Montes De Oca, according to the MLB.com transaction tracker. That drops Arizona’s 40-man roster count to 37.

Montes De Oca is a 26-year-old who made his big league debut this past season. Arizona first called him up in May but didn’t get him into a game before optioning him back out. He came back up in early June as the extra pitcher for a doubleheader in Cincinnati. Montes De Oca tossed 2 2/3 scoreless innings of mop-up ball, striking out two while issuing a walk.

That ended up being his only MLB appearance of the season. Montes De Oca went on the injured list with elbow inflammation a few days later. The Snakes subsequently announced that he was headed for surgery on a seemingly unrelated lower back injury. Montes De Oca finished the season on the injured list but needed to be reinstated onto the roster at the beginning of the offseason.

Montes De Oca didn’t enter the professional ranks until his age-22 season. He has pitched to a 4.34 earned run average in 186 2/3 innings over parts of four minor league seasons. He has punched out a quarter of opponents against a serviceable 8.1% walk rate. He’ll remain in the system as a non-roster player and figures to get an invite to big league camp if he’s healthy next spring.

Tomorrow evening is the deadline for teams to add players to the 40-man to keep them out of the Rule 5 draft. Mitch Bratt and Kohl Drake — the top two pitching prospects acquired from Texas for Merrill Kelly — will both need to be added to the roster. Dropping Montes De Oca gives them an extra spot in case they want to keep someone like Double-A outfielder Gavin Conticello, Triple-A starter Dylan Ray or former third-round pick Jacob Steinmetz out of the draft.

Will Anyone Accept The Qualifying Offer?

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Tomorrow afternoon is the deadline for players to decide whether to accept the qualifying offer. Thirteen free agents were tagged with the $22.025MM offer. It’s a formality for most of them, who’ll easily decline and command a much larger multi-year contract. Each offseason features a handful of borderline decisions, however, and we’ve seen at least one player accept in six of the past seven years. In that span, only in 2023 — when an abnormally low amount of seven players received the QO — did everyone decline.

For the purposes of this poll, we’ll exclude seven players: Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Edwin Díaz, Kyle Schwarber and Ranger Suárez. There’s no scenario in which any of them accept the qualifying offer. Most of the remaining six will decline as well, but there’s at least a small chance for any of them to accept. Players and their representatives have had the past two weeks to gauge early demand on the open market, and it’s possible someone from the group has found sufficiently lukewarm interest to consider locking in the strong one-year deal and trying again next offseason.

Zac Gallen and Michael King are each somewhat buy-low rotation options. Gallen is coming off a 4.83 earned run average across 33 starts. His strikeout rate has regressed in a few consecutive seasons, and he gave up the fourth-most home runs (31) of any pitcher in MLB. He once looked like a lock for a $100-150MM+ contract. That’s probably no longer on the table, but Gallen should have enough of a track record to decline the QO and at least command a multi-year deal with an opt-out if he wants to retest free agency.

King has been a much better pitcher than Gallen over the past two seasons. He missed most of his walk year battling a nerve issue in his shoulder. He finished the year healthy but didn’t pitch well in September. The Padres didn’t trust him much going into the playoffs, though they’re obviously confident enough in his health to make the QO. Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune wrote last week that the Padres expect King to reject the offer and will probably not meet his asking price on the open market. MLBTR predicted a four-year, $80MM deal for Gallen and King alike.

Brandon Woodruff has some parallels to King. He’s a high-end starter whose main question is durability. Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain after missing all of ’24 recovering from shoulder surgery. He was fantastic over 12 starts in between, though, and he’s expected to be healthy going into 2026. Woodruff is entering his age-33 season. There’s less long-term earning power if he accepts a one-year offer and retests free agency at 34. MLBTR predicts a three-year, $66MM deal.

Trent Grisham and Gleyber Torres were the two mid-level hitters who received the offer. Grisham is coming off a 34-homer season and is the top all-around center fielder on the market. He’d hit below the Mendoza line in three straight seasons coming into 2025. Entering the year, the notion of him receiving a qualifying offer would’ve been laughable. Things can change quickly. We predicted he’d decline and command a four-year, $66MM deal.

Torres was the most surprising QO recipient to those of us at MLBTR. He’s also the only one we projected to accept on our Top 50 free agent list. (We would’ve predicted a three-year, $40MM contract had he hit the market without draft compensation attached.) He was a deserved All-Star behind an excellent first half but struggled down the stretch and underwent postseason sports hernia surgery.

Finally, that leaves Shota Imanaga. The left-hander only hit free agency because the Cubs declined to trigger a three-year, $57.75MM option and he passed on the remaining two years and $30.5MM on his deal. The Cubs weren’t willing to make the three-year commitment but are evidently content to have him back for one season because they followed up by making the QO. Perhaps they assumed he’s a lock to decline after passing on the $30MM guarantee, though the QO represents an approximate $7MM raise over what he would’ve made in 2026 had he not opted out. Imanaga was very good for most of his first two seasons in Chicago, but he became extremely homer-prone down the stretch and into the playoffs. MLBTR predicts a three-year, $45MM contract.

How does the MLBTR readership expect tomorrow to play out? Will anyone lock in for one year with their 2025 club or will they all remain on the market?

 

Jose Altuve Undergoes Minor Foot Procedure

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Jose Altuve underwent a minor procedure on his right foot this afternoon, reports Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. The aspiration drained fluid from an injury between his fourth and fifth toes. It should not impact his readiness for Spring Training.

Altuve played through foot discomfort in the waning weeks of the season. The pain cost him a game in the middle of September, but Altuve wouldn’t go on the injured list as the Astros battled for a playoff spot. It wasn’t until they were officially eliminated with two games remaining in the season that he shut it down. Altuve wasn’t particularly effective as he played through the injury, hitting .218/.295/.385 in the final month.

It was something of a down season overall for the nine-time All-Star. Altuve still managed 26 homers with a solid .265/.329/.442 batting line, but his average and on-base percentage were his lowest in a full season in more than a decade. Altuve hit .363 with five longballs during a monster July but was otherwise a middle-of-the-road contributor. He had a .745 OPS or lower in every other month.

It’s not surprising to see Altuve’s numbers begin to trend down as he gets into his mid-30s. He’s still a good hitter but no longer the MVP-caliber bat he was in his prime. The bigger question moving forward is how the Astros will minimize his defensive weaknesses. The Astros have increasingly soured on his second base work. They hoped to use him primarily in left field this past season, reasoning that the short porch with the Crawford Boxes at Daikin Park could compensate for mediocre range. Altuve didn’t take naturally to the position, though, and skipper Joe Espada used him mostly at second base again by the end of the season.

The Astros don’t have great alternatives at the keystone. Rookie Brice Matthews had decent overall numbers in Triple-A, but he struck out in 28% of his plate appearances against minor league pitching. He punched out 20 times in his first 13 big league games. Mauricio Dubón is a quality defender with a light bat whose escalating arbitration salaries could make him a trade or non-tender candidate. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects the switch-hitting utilityman to make $5.8MM in his final year of club control. Ramón Urías struggled after a deadline trade and is likely to be cut loose in lieu of a $4.4MM arbitration projection.

At the moment, that leaves Altuve as their primary option at second base. They could continue to get him some left field work and use him more frequently at designated hitter if they’re willing to play Yordan Alvarez semi-regularly in left (especially at home). An offseason acquisition could change the calculus. Their longstanding interest in Cardinals’ trade candidate Brendan Donovan continues. Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe could also be on the move, while Gleyber Torres and Willi Castro are free agent possibilities.

Buck Britton Will Return As Orioles’ Third Base Coach

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The Orioles’ coaching staff has been in a fluid state since the team hired Craig Albernaz as the new skipper, but interim third base coach Buck Britton will be a holdover for the 2026 season. Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner reports that Britton will shed the “interim” label in his title and return as Baltimore’s third base coach next season.

Britton opened the 2025 season on the Orioles’ staff but with the generic title of major league coach. He moved into the third base coach role after the O’s fired manager Brandon Hyde and elevated then-third base coach Tony Mansolino to the interim manager post. Mansolino interviewed for the full-time gig but lost out to Albernaz and has since joined Atlanta’s coaching staff.

The 39-year-old Britton is the older brother of former Orioles star reliever Zack Britton. He played in parts of seven minor league seasons — seven with the Orioles — from 2008-16. His playing days closed with minor league stints in the Dodgers and Twins organizations. Britton almost immediately jumped into coaching, landing a job as the hitting coach for the Orioles’ Class-A affiliate in 2017. A year later, he was managing that club. Britton slowly climbed the minor league ladder as a skipper, managing the Orioles’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates for multiple seasons each until he was added to the big league staff in 2025.

Given the glut of managerial and coaching experience he’s accrued before even celebrating his 40th birthday, Britton could well have a prominent future in big league dugouts. He’ll join pitching coach Drew French and pitching strategy coach Ryan Klimek on a revamped staff that includes new hires Donnie Ecker (bench coach), Dustin Lind (hitting coach), Miguel Cairo (infield coach) and Jason Bourgeois (first base/outfield coach).

Mariners Re-Sign Josh Naylor

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The Mariners officially announced they’ve brought back Josh Naylor on a five-year deal. It’s a reported $92.5MM guarantee for the ISE Baseball client.  Naylor will get a $6.5MM signing bonus upfront. He’ll make a $10MM salary in 2026, $16MM in ’27, $18MM in ’28, $20MM in ’29 and $22MM in 2030. The deal also includes a full no-trade clause and has no deferred money.

Naylor becomes the first headline name of the 2025-26 free agent class to land a new contract, just two weeks after the World Series concluded.  It counts as a surprise to see any major free agent sign their next contract this quickly, even before the players who received qualifying offers have made their decisions.  (Naylor was notably not eligible for a QO, since he was traded from the Diamondbacks to the Mariners during the season.)

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Naylor 12th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and the five-year term matches our projection that Naylor would receive a five-year, $90MM deal.  The five-year length of Naylor’s contract also matches the longest free agent deal the Mariners have given out during Jerry Dipoto’s decade in charge of Seattle’s baseball operations department.  The M’s inked Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115MM pact during the 2021-22 offseason, and Ray’s contract and Yusei Kikuchi’s four-year, $56MM deal in January 2019 were the only free agent deals of the Dipoto era to exceed even two years.

There are multiple reasons behind the lack of big free agent strikes.  The Mariners’ infamous 10-year, $240MM deal with Robinson Cano from December 2013 could’ve led to some organizational wariness over blockbuster signings.  Since John Stanton’s ownership group bought the team in 2016, the M’s have only once finished a season with a top-10 payroll, and are only moving back into the middle range of spending league-wide.  There is also “Trader Jerry’s” own personal preference to build rosters via trades rather than free agents, as Dipoto has become known for being very active in negotiating swaps.  Players may have had misgivings about joining a Mariners team that has two just postseason appearances in the last 24 seasons, and hitters in particular weren’t exactly lining up to play in a notoriously pitcher-friendly environment.

With all of this in mind, there was such mutual interest between Naylor and the Mariners that it certainly seemed like the team was very willing to stretch beyond its usual free agent comfort zone.  Dipoto was open in telling the media — including Darragh McDonald on the MLBTR Podcast back in September — that re-signing Naylor was a priority for the organization, and Naylor himself was just as effusive in how much he enjoyed playing in Seattle.

Considering how Naylor performed after arriving in the Pacific Northwest, it’s easy to see why both sides moved quickly on a long-term deal.  Naylor was already enjoying a strong season with the Diamondbacks, but with Arizona falling out of contention, the D’Backs dealt the slugger a week before the trade deadline, landing rookie left-hander Brandyn Garcia and pitching prospect Ashton Izzi.

Naylor proceeded to hit .299/.341/.490 with nine homers and 19 stolen bases (without a single caught stealing) over 210 regular-season plate appearances for the M’s, and he followed that up with a .340/.392/.574 slash line over 51 postseason PA.  Adding this type of pop into the lineup was perhaps the primary reason the Mariners won the AL West, and then outlasted the Tigers in the ALDS before falling just short of the first World Series berth in franchise history in losing the ALCS to the Blue Jays in seven games.

This kind of success made the Mariners want to more or less bring the band back together for 2026, which was no small feat since Naylor, Jorge Polanco, and Eugenio Suarez (among others) were all set for free agency.  Re-signing Naylor is the first major domino to fall, and it now remains to be seen if either Polanco or Suarez can also be retained in the wake of the team’s sizeable commitment in Naylor.  The M’s entered the offseason with approximately $34MM to spend, according to Dipoto’s statements after the playoff run was over, with more money potentially available at the deadline if more in-season reinforcements were required.

For now, the Mariners and their fans can at least enjoy the idea of Naylor suiting up at T-Mobile Park for the next five seasons.  Naylor turns 29 in June, so his contract will run through his age-33 season.  There has been some league-wide hesitancy in recent years about giving major contracts to first base-only players (especially as those players enter their 30s), yet Naylor’s production outside of just his stretch run with the Mariners makes him a solid choice for a five-year investment.

Naylor’s 128 wRC+ in 2025 was a career high, narrowly topping the 127 wRC+ he posted with the Guardians in 2023.  Since emerging as a regular with Cleveland in 2022, Naylor has hit .275/.336/.464 with 88 home runs, translating to a 123 wRC+ and 9.9 fWAR over the last four seasons.  His barrel and hard-hit ball rates are okay but uninspiring, and his walk rate from 2022-25 was below average, so Naylor doesn’t exactly fit the profile of a classic slugging first baseman.

His biggest offensive weapon is his ability to make contact, as Naylor is among the league’s more difficult players to strike out though he is prone to chasing pitches off the plate.  There is also the amusing oddity of Naylor’s 30-for-32 record at stealing bases in 2025, which speaks to his skill as an opportunistic baserunner despite being one of the slowest players in baseball.  Defensively, public metrics are mixed on his glovework.  The Outs Above Average metric has him solidly above average with +12 OAA, while his -6 Defensive Runs Saved paints a less-flattering picture of his work at first base.

Naylor joins Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez as Seattle players locked up through at least the 2029 season, and Rodriguez’s deal could actually extend through 2039 depending on a complicated set of options following the 2029 campaign.  These three All-Star position players, veteran righty Luis Castillo, and a core of homegrown starters (George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, Bryce Miller) have become the building blocks of an AL West title team that looks to remain competitive for at least the rest of the decade.

Though many pundits — including three of us at MLBTR — predicted Naylor would re-sign the Mariners, the fact that he has found a new deal so suddenly creates an interesting ripple effect on the rest of the free agent class.  Teams in need of lineup help have one less big bat to consider, and the first base market in particular has now lost a name many teams would’ve considered as perhaps a preferred alternative to Pete Alonso, Munetaka Murakami, or Kazuma Okamoto.  Murakami or Okamoto could be deployed at third base and Cody Bellinger could be viewed as a first baseman or outfielder in equal measure, depending on a suitor’s needs.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Mariners and Naylor were closing in on a five-year deal. Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston had the guarantee landing in the $90-100MM range. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first on the $92.5MM figure and the absence of deferred money. Robert Murray of FanSided first noted the $6.5MM bonus and the full no-trade clause. Andrew Destin of The Associated Press had the specific salary breakdown.

Inset photo courtesy of Stephen Brashear — Imagn Images

D-backs’ GM Downplays Payroll Concerns

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Diamondbacks owner Ken Kendrick has already publicly indicated that his team’s payroll will decline from the franchise-record $200MM set in 2025, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the front office is handcuffed in terms of its ability to pursue additions this winter. General manager Mike Hazen recently pushed back on the idea that he might have to subtract some salary via trade, telling Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic:

“I don’t really feel that way, honestly. That’s not the impression I have. Are we going to be doing what we did last offseason? Probably not. But I don’t think I have zero wiggle room or avenues to pursue players.”

RosterResource currently projects the Snakes for about $143MM in 2026 payroll, and that’s before potential non-tenders among the arbitration class. Injured lefty A.J. Puk, who underwent UCL surgery this summer, is projected for a $3.3MM salary (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) but might not even pitch next season in his final year before free agency. Righty Kevin Ginkel ($3MM projection) posted a 7.36 ERA in 25 2/3 MLB innings. Outfielders Alek Thomas ($2.2MM projection) and Jake McCarthy ($1.9MM projection) both had well below-average seasons at the plate; McCarthy, in particular, was one of the 20 worst hitters in MLB, sitting with the 18th-worst wRC+ mark among the 348 hitters who tallied at least 200 turns at the plate.

Assuming some of that group departs, the Diamondbacks will find themselves with a $135-140MM projection for next year’s Opening Day payroll. Even if ownership plans to scale back payroll by as much as $25MM — and that’s just an arbitrary number for illustrative purposes — Hazen could reasonably have as much as $40MM to spend on next year’s payroll alone.

All of this pushes back somewhat against the notion of a potential trade of star second baseman Ketel Marte. Hazen has already called trading Marte or any of his star hitters “unlikely,” although because he’s acknowledged that he’ll hear offers as a matter of due diligence, some optimists have clung to the idea that Marte might be available.  Trading him would bring a haul of talent, but it’d also just create another hole which needs to be filled.

Arizona’s shopping list this winter is lengthy, to say the least. Hazen & Co. will need to add at least two starters to a rotation that currently consists of Ryne Nelson and a pair of pitchers who struggled badly in 2025: righty Brandon Pfaadt and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. Corbin Burnes underwent Tommy John surgery in June and will miss most or all of next year. Zac Gallen is a free agent. Most of the organization’s top pitching products heading into 2025 pitched poorly and/or suffered an injury this past season. The bullpen needs a nearly complete overhaul.

In a separate piece, Piecoro suggests that reunions with Gallen and fellow righty Merrill Kelly (whom the D-backs traded to the Rangers back in July) seem unlikely if the two indeed command the type of $17MM+ annual values many (MLBTR included) have predicted for both pitchers. There’s no firm indication that either is squarely off the table, to be clear, but the D-backs need to add at least two starters and relievers apiece, and that’s to say nothing of the infield corners or the bench. Young sluggers Tyler Locklear and Jordan Lawlar could get looks at first base and third base, respectively, but neither has proven himself in the majors. Lawlar has also been getting a look in center field, which stands as another potential area of need after Thomas struggled so much with the bat in 2025 (and really, in his overall parts of four MLB seasons to date).

Red Sox Likely To Tender Contract To Tanner Houck

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The Red Sox are planning to tender a contract to right-hander Tanner Houck, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. The club has until Friday evening to change its mind but it seems they are planning to keep Houck on the roster.

Friday at 7pm Central is the deadline for clubs to decide whether or not to tender contracts to pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players. Teams and players don’t need to decide on a salary by that date. They have until January 8th to file salary figures. But the team needs to make a decision by Friday as to whether they are committed to paying the player or not. If the player is still on the roster beyond the deadline, the team will have to eventually pay him something, with various outcomes still possible at that point. A non-tender on Friday allows the team to walk away without paying anything.

Houck is arguably a borderline case on account of his health. He just had Tommy John surgery in August. He will likely miss the entire 2026 season. He can be retained via arbitration through 2027, at which point he is slated for free agency.

With 2026 likely to be a recovery year for Houck, the decision is more about 2027. The Sox could pay him for the 2026 season, hoping that the investment pays off in the following year. That’s something that teams often do in free agency. Pitchers recovering from surgery often sign two-year pacts, with the signing team knowing that they are probably only going to get meaningful return on investment in the second year, while the player banks a bit of cash while recovering.

The Sox themselves did this last offseason, as they signed Patrick Sandoval to a two-year, $18.25MM deal. The lefty didn’t pitch for the Sox in 2025 but they will hopefully get something out of him next year. Other pitchers got similar deals recently. Shane Bieber got $26MM from the Guardians last winter, for instance, with an opt-out halfway through. A year earlier, Tyler Mahle got $22MM from the Rangers, with no opt-out. The Brewers gave Brandon Woodruff two years and $17.5MM when he was recovering from shoulder surgery.

Investing in Houck will cost less than that. He made $3.95MM in 2025, his first of three arbitration seasons. He only made nine starts in 2025 due to his arm issues but players going through arb usually see their salaries hold fairly steady when they miss significant time. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Houck for the same $3.95MM salary in 2026. If he stays on the roster and is tendered a contract for 2027 as well, he would likely end up in the same range again.

Essentially, tendering Houck a contract for the next two years will probably cost the Red Sox about $8MM total. They could also walk away after 2026 if he experiences some sort of setback, cutting their losses. The roughly $8MM would be less than half of what they paid to Sandoval and the guarantees of those other aforementioned deals. Houck doesn’t have the same track record as those guys but has shown plenty of potential, particularly in 2024 when he logged 178 2/3 innings with a 3.12 earned run average, 20.7% strikeout rate, 6.5% walk rate and 55.9% ground ball rate.

If the Sox were to non-tender Houck, it would probably suggest that they don’t expect him to fully return to that level in 2027, though there also could be other contributing factors. There’s no injured list in the offseason, so the Sox do have to keep Houck on the roster throughout the winter. Tomorrow is the deadline to add players to a 40-man roster to protect them from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. The Sox currently have a full 40-man and need to open some spots, assuming they want to add a few guys. Cotillo mentions the possibility of a lockout disrupting 2027, which could prevent the Sox from benefiting from Houck’s eventual return. However, front office still have to plan as though the season will be played, as there’s no certainty around the labor dispute right now.

The Sox currently have Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello under club control through at least 2030. Other than that, there’s not a ton of certainty. Kutter Crawford has posted decent results and should be in the mix. He’s under club control through 2028. The aforementioned Sandoval is signed for just one more year. Guys like Connelly Early, Payton Tolle and Kyle Harrison are in the mix but still aren’t proven big leaguers. The Sox plan to add to the rotation this offseason but haven’t done so yet.

Even if a pitching staff looks good on paper, injuries are always inevitable, so it’s anyone’s guess what the depth will look like by the time Houck is back on a big league mound. He has also had some success as a reliever, so perhaps there’s a scenario where he gets pushed to the bullpen, especially if there are workload concerns in the coming years. Time will tell how it plays out but it appears the Sox would like the payoff to be with Houck pitching in Boston.

Photo courtesy of Rick Osentoski, Imagn Images

Phillies Interested In Re-Signing Harrison Bader

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After a disappointing seasons that saw them earn a bye through the Wild Card series but immediately fall to the Dodgers in the NLDS, the Phillies are in an uncertain spot as the team figures to look very different by the time Opening Day rolls around. Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto are free agents, while Nick Castellanos is expected to play elsewhere next year. While the team’s roster is in flux more than usual this winter, it’s long seemed likely that president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski would look to engage with some of those outgoing free agents.

That includes some players who haven’t been around quite as long as the team’s veteran core, as Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Lochlan March of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that the team not only has interest in bringing free agent outfielder Harrison Bader back into the fold, but has also conveyed that to Bader’s camp already this winter.

“They know we’d like to bring him back,” Dombrowski said during last week’s GM Meetings, as relayed by March. “They also had expressed that they want to see what’s out there, because this was the best year he’s had, I think, in quite a while.”

That would seem to indicate that Bader won’t be jumping the market to sign right away, the way Josh Naylor did last night when he re-upped with the Mariners. Still, a reunion between Bader and the Phillies would make plenty of sense. After being dealt to the Phillies from the Twins at the trade deadline, Bader found another gear amid what was already a career year. In 50 games with Philadelphia, Bader slashed .300/.361/.463 (129 wRC+) to boost his season-long slash line to .277/.347/.449 (122 wRC+). Bader’s 7.8% walk rate was his best full-season mark since 2019, and while he struck out at an elevated 27.1% clip he made up for it by slugging a career-high 17 homers and 24 doubles.

This year’s performance from Bader was enough for him to profile as a solid regular in an outfield corner offensively, but even as his defensive metrics have slipped from once-elite levels he remains a solidly above average defender all across the grass, including center field. That adds a solid floor of production to the upside Bader flashed this year, and it’s been widely speculated that the 31-year-old will be able to land a multi-year guarantee this year on the back of his strong 2025, and MLBTR’s own prediction is that he’ll secure a two-year, $26MM guarantee.

For a team that enters the offseason with only Brandon Marsh locked into its outfield for next year, it’s easy to see why bringing back Bader would make plenty of sense. With that said, the Phillies are far from the only team that Bader could be a fit for. His old stomping grounds in both Queens and the Bronx could both use a center fielder, and teams like the Angels, Orioles, Guardians, Giants, and Royals are all known to be on the prowl for help either in center or the outfield generally this winter.

Some of those teams may be priced out of Bader’s market when all is said and done, and not all of them are perfect fits, but it’s a large enough cast of potential suitors that even with Philadelphia’s interest in a reunion Bader could have some incentive to wait out the market for at least a little while yet. Meanwhile, the Phillies will need to prioritize bigger ticket free agents like Schwarber and Realmuto themselves, whether that comes by way of re-signing them outright or finding another way to replace their production for 2026.

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