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Brewers Sign Brett Lawrie

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TODAY: Lawrie’s deal with the Brewers is now official, the team announced.

FEBRUARY 9: Infielder Brett Lawrie, out of baseball since the conclusion of the 2016 season, announced on Instagram today that he has signed with Milwaukee. Per Robert Murray of the Athletic, the deal is a minors pact with a club option for 2020, and may reach up to $7MM in total value. If he cracks the MLB roster at any point during the 2019 season, he’ll earn $1MM. The deal also includes performance bonuses in 2019, with “escalators” baked in to the 2020 option.

The 29-year-old Lawrie made his early-career mark with the Blue Jays, where his abrasive, hard-nosed style of play split critics and admirers evenly apart. After four injury-marred seasons in Toronto, wherein the Canadian-born Lawrie settled in as a league-average bat with an on-again, off-again glove, the then-24-year-old was the centerpiece of the ridiculously lopsided trade that sent eventual AL MVP Josh Donaldson to the Jays.

Though he made it through a mostly-full season for the first time, Lawrie was a disappointment in Oakland. His famously aggressive style in the box teetered too far to the negative extreme, at times spilling over to the basepaths, and even on the field, where his verbal outbursts and come-get-me persona overshadowed a lethargic statistical output. After a 0.9 fWAR season, suppressed largely by an awful defensive performance, Lawrie was shipped early in the offseason to the South side of Chicago.

With the White Sox, Lawrie’s strikeout rate ballooned to career-high 28.4%, and he again struggled to stay on the field. Still, his offensive performance maintained its even flow, as he fell around five percent below league-average for the third consecutive season.

Forecasting a player after such a long absence is a difficult task, but the offensive bar in the Brewers infield has been set shockingly low. The club is set to enter the season with a platoon of Cory Spangenberg and Hernan Perez at second, neither of whom can match Lawrie’s league-average (.261/.315/.419, 100 wRC+) track record. If the rust is surface-layer, Lawrie should find his way back to the major-league roster in short order.

“Optimism” Phillies, Bryce Harper Will Finalize 10-Year Deal By Monday

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9:55pm: Harper’s camp actually negotiated with two teams in Las Vegas on Saturday, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. It’s not clear who was vying against the Phillies, though, nor is it known whether the other club made any progress in talks.

9:41pm: Middleton is still in Vegas, and there’s “optimism” the Phillies and Harper will finalize a 10-year deal by Monday afternoon, Nightengale reports.

9:19pm: Middleton’s plane is returning to the East Coast, but the two sides had a “busy day of meetings” and talks will continue, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly tweets.

8:39pm: The Phillies are engaged in “deep and serious negotiations” with free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. Team owner John Middleton, who’s meeting with Harper’s camp in Las Vegas, doesn’t want to leave without a deal in place, according to Nightengale.

The Vegas-based meeting between the Phillies and Team Harper, which also includes agent Scott Boras, is their second summit since Jan. 10. After the sides’ initial sitdown, Nightengale named Philadelphia as the favorite to sign Harper, which has remained the case in the ensuing weeks. Now, with the season fast approaching and the current class’ other elite free agent, Manny Machado, having come off the board this week, a resolution for Harper may finally be on the way.

Machado’s months-long stay on the open market came to an end when he accepted the Padres’ 10-year, $300MM offer. The Phillies also had interest in Machado, but they weren’t willing to approach the Padres’ proposal, leaving Harper as the clear-cut best free agent available. Having watched Machado come off the board, the Phillies  “will be much more reluctant to walk away” from Harper, Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer relayed this week.

Whether with the Phillies or another team, Harper seemingly has a good chance to exceed Machado’s guarantee – the largest ever given to a free agent. However, the 26-year-old Harper’s market hasn’t quite come together as expected this offseason, evidenced in part by his unemployed status as March nears. Aside from the Phillies, who entered the offseason promising to spend (which they’ve done, albeit nowhere close to “stupid” amounts), the Nationals, White Sox, Padres and Giants have shown varying levels of interest in Harper. Among that group, Philly easily looks like the most aggressive team in the race. Although Harper has spent his entire career in Washington, where he has starred, team owner Mark Lerner painted a bleak picture Friday when asked if the Nationals would re-sign him. Meanwhile, the White Sox may not even bid on Harper, the Padres don’t appear to be serious suitors, and the Giants are shying away from a long-term commitment.

All things considered, it seems the stars are aligning for the Phillies to land their coveted target after months of chasing him. While the Phillies haven’t finished above .500 in a season since 2011 and are mired in a seven-year playoff drought, they’re making a strong push to contend in 2019. Regardless of what happens with Harper, Philadelphia has already made major improvements this offseason by acquiring catcher J.T. Realmuto, shortstop Jean Segura, outfielder Andrew McCutchen and reliever David Robertson. But there’s still plenty of room for Harper, a Hall of Fame-level talent who could help propel the franchise back to relevance.

AL Notes: Yanks, Tulo, Voit, Bird, Mariners, Rays

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When the offseason began in late October, the Yankees were a popular pick to become Manny Machado’s next team as he sought a record contract in free agency. As it turns out, though, the Yankees didn’t pursue Machado as aggressively as many expected them to, and he’s now a member of the Padres after signing a 10-year, $300MM guarantee with them this week.

On Friday, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman spoke about their decision to back off Machado, claiming the team’s league-minimum signing of oft-injured infielder Troy Tulowitzki in early January played a key part, per John Harper of SNY.tv. Tulowitzki was once an elite player, as Machado currently is, but he’s now a 34-year-old coming off a season lost to heel issues. Nevertheless, the Yankees are “banking on the problem being fixed,” according to Cashman, who signed Tulowitzki after the Blue Jays released him and ate nearly all of the $38MM left on his contract. Tulowitzki was one of several offseason acquisitions for the Yankees, though the big-spending franchise didn’t break the bank on any of its pickups – something it often did under late owner George Steinbrenner, who passed away in 2010.

“Those days are gone,” Cashman said of his former boss’ reign, owing to the “completely different” system the league operates under now compared to then. Cashman, who answers to Steinbrenner’s son Hal these days, contends that “the game now rewards — and reward might not be the right word — but it rewards losing. It drags teams that are struggling back up into the winning environment, and penalizes teams that have been winning by pushing them back.” As Harper points out, Cashman was likely alluding to the luxury tax, revenue sharing and the league’s capped spending on draft picks and international signings as detriments to the Yankees and other clubs of their ilk.

More from New York and a couple other AL cities…

  • Luke Voit and Greg Bird are competing to be the Yankees’ Opening Day first baseman, and it appears to be an all-or-nothing battle. It’s doubtful the loser will crack the team’s season-opening roster, George A. King III of the New York Post relays, which seems to rule out a platoon between the righty-hitting Voit and the lefty-swinging Bird. It looks as if free-agent signing DJ LeMahieu, a second baseman by trade, could serve as the team’s backup at first, as manager Aaron Boone said Saturday, “I see [DJ] LeMahieu getting some reps there.’’ Boone also declared that Bird is a superior defender to Voit, Coley Harvey of ESPN reports. Still, given that Voit far outdid Bird at the plate in 2018, it would be surprising if the latter wins back his old job coming out of camp. Both players have minor league options remaining, though, so the Yankees wouldn’t have any difficulty demoting the runner-up to Triple-A.
  • The Mariners have promoted Joe Bohringer to assistant general manager, per a team announcement. A special assistant to Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto since 2015, Bohringer will take over for Jeff Kingston, who left the M’s to become the Dodgers’ VP/AGM in December. Bohringer’s duties will include overseeing the Mariners’ analytics departments and acting as the primary liaison between their front office and medical staff, the club announced. Bohringer’s in his second run with Seattle, having previously worked as an area scouting supervisor with the franchise from 2002-06. Along with his Mariners stints, he has served in scouting capacities with the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Cubs at the major league level.
  • Longtime FanGraphs writer Jeff Sullivan announced Friday that he has taken a job with the Rays. His departure from FanGraphs is a blow to the many who enjoyed reading his excellent pieces, but it should be a boon for Tampa Bay. While it’s unknown which role Sullivan has taken with the Rays, he’s an intriguing addition to a front office that’s known for its use of analytics and willingness to innovate.

Padres Rumors: Bryce Harper, Dallas Keuchel

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The Padres stole headlines this week when they signed one of the game’s elite players, third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado, to a 10-year, $300MM guarantee. But it appears the Machado pickup will be the Padres’ lone massive splash in free agency this year.

While San Diego has at least considered pursuing free-agent superstar Bryce Harper, the team’s talks with agent Scott Boras have focused more on still-unemployed left-hander Dallas Keuchel than Harper, Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin of The Athletic report. Keuchel would be a noteworthy addition in his own right, but the chances of the pitcher-needy Padres signing him aren’t great, according to Rosenthal and Lin, who note it’s a “longshot.” That jibes with a report from Jon Heyman of MLB Network, who tweeted Saturday that the Padres “don’t see a fit” for Keuchel.

If the Padres aren’t going to seriously pursue Harper, who may join Machado in collecting a $300MM-plus guarantee, it seems to make it all the more likely he’ll head to Philadelphia. The Phillies – who just had at least their second in-person meeting with Harper – have been seen as the favorites to sign him throughout the offseason, for one. Moreover, it doesn’t appear there are other teams champing at the bit to meet the six-time All-Star’s asking price.

The Nationals, Harper’s only team to date, may have “moved on”; the White Sox, despite their clear weaknesses in the outfield, reportedly aren’t going to bid on Harper; and the Giants, despite their own outfield issues, don’t seem willing to give the former NL MVP a long-term contract. Barring a change of heart from one of those clubs or the emergence of an aggressive mystery team(s), then, Harper to the Phillies still appears to be the most probable conclusion to this protracted derby.

Unlike Harper, the 31-year-old Keuchel has hardly dominated headlines since last season ended. Even though Keuchel’s a onetime AL Cy Young winner with an excellent track record, there is nothing to suggest anyone has pursued him with much gusto in recent months. Of course, he and Boras may not have helped the hurler’s cause with an exorbitant early winter asking price – reportedly six to seven years and between $25MM and $30MM. Since the offseason began, Keuchel’s next contract has always seemed a solid bet to fall well short of that price in terms of both length and dollars.

In the end, it’s possible Keuchel will head back to Houston, where he has spent his entire professional career since it selected him in the seventh round of the 2009 draft. Not only could the Astros use another proven starter, but owner Jim Crane suggested this week that the team hasn’t closed the door on re-signing Keuchel.

Yankees Have Discussed Extensions With Aaron Hicks, Dellin Betances

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Center fielder Aaron Hicks and reliever Dellin Betances represent a pair of the Yankees’ best soon-to-be free agents, but it’s possible the team will prevent them from reaching the open market next winter. The club has “broached” contract extensions with Hicks and Betances, James Wagner of the New York Times reports. It’s unclear whether the Yankees have made headway in talks with either player, however.

After joining the Yankees in a November 2015 trade with the Twins, Hicks endured a 2016 to forget in his first season in the Bronx. He has since blossomed into one of the majors’ most valuable center fielders, though, as he combined for 8.2 fWAR and in 225 games and 942 plate appearances from 2017-18. Hicks derived most of his value last season from his bat, with which he produced a potent .248/.366/.467 line. Along the way, the switch-hitting Hicks managed career highs in home runs (27), wRC+ (127) and isolated power (.219), also posting an excellent walk rate (15.5 percent, compared to an above-average strikeout percentage of 19.1), stealing 11 bases on 13 tries and earning elite overall baserunning marks from FanGraphs. Defensive Runs Saved (minus-3) and Ultimate Zone Rating (0.7) weren’t enamored of Hicks’ work in center, especially compared to his output in 2017 (15 DRS, 7.0 UZR), but he was still worth a lofty 4.9 fWAR on the season.

Now, as he enters his age-29 season, Hicks is open to an extension to remain in New York.

“It’s an amazing place with a great future and of course it’s something I’d like to be a part of,” Hicks told Wagner, and he suggested earlier in the week (via Randy Miller of NJ.com) that the contract A.J. Pollock signed with the Dodgers in free agency this offseason could be a starting point in negotiations.

“Of course,” Hicks said of Pollock’s four-year, $60MM guarantee. “When center fielders get contracts, of course I’m going to get excited about that. He’s a good player and he’s going to a good team.”

Hicks was the better, more durable player than Pollock over the previous two seasons, and the former’s also two years younger than the latter. Hicks’ reps at CAA Sports are sure to emphasize those points in their discussions with the Yankees, and as we noted earlier in the offseason, they could perhaps try to push their client closer to the $80MM-plus guarantees center fielders Dexter Fowler and Lorenzo Cain signed during the 2016 and ’17 offseasons, respectively. For now, Hicks is slated to make a more-than-reasonable $6MM salary in 2019 after avoiding arbitration with the Yankees last month.

Betances, like Hicks, avoided arbitration in January, agreeing to a $7.125MM sum. It’s the second straight year in which the two sides found common ground and forewent arbitration, which is notable given the battle between Betances and the Yankees in February 2017. Back then, the sides engaged in a contentious arbitration hearing which culminated in a win for the Yankees and a public spat between Betances’ camp and team president Randy Levine. Betances hinted then that he was looking forward to free agency, but it’s unknown whether the New York City native has changed his stance since then.

What is clear is that Betances has been a world-class setup man dating back to his 2014 debut. Over his first half-decade in the majors, the towering right-hander led all relievers in fWAR (11.6) and innings pitched (373 1/3), and he also ranked toward the top of the sport in ERA (2.22), FIP (2.26) and K/9 (14.63, compared to 3.91 BB/9). Betances is now coming off a year in which he continued to pump high-90s heat while logging a strong 2.70 ERA/2.47 FIP across 66 2/3 frames, over which he registered a ridiculous 15.53 strikeouts per nine (trailing only teammate Aroldis Chapman and the Brewers’ Josh Hader in that regard) against a manageable 3.51 BB/9.

All of Betances’ numbers suggest the Excel Sports Management client is on track to land a sizable deal sometime before the 2020 season, whether from the Yankees or another team. While youth isn’t necessarily on Betances’ side – he’ll turn 31 next month – similarly aged, arguably less desirable relievers such as teammate Zack Britton (three years, $39MM) and the Rockies’ Wade Davis (three years, $52MM) have scored big deals in free agency dating back to December 2017. Betances could also be keeping an eye on free agent Craig Kimbrel, who’s had a difficult time on the market over the past few months but still figures to rake in a lucrative contract before the upcoming campaign.

While the Yankees are clearly interested in keeping Hicks and Betances in the fold for the foreseeable future, they aren’t the championship hopefuls’ only notable pending free agents. Injured shortstop Didi Gregorius, outfielder Brett Gardner and backup catcher Austin Romine are also scheduled to reach the market after the season. It’s unknown if the Yankees have discussed new contracts with any of them, however.

Latest On Craig Kimbrel

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4:38 PM: Per Kimbrel’s agent David Meter, via The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the report that Kimbrel would consider sitting out the 2019 season is false: “The report is wholly inaccurate and Craig looks forward to signing a new contract in the near future. Any report pertaining to his not playing this season is utterly false.”

2:27 PM: Jim Bowden of The Athletic cites “multiple GMs” in a report stating that reliever Craig Kimbrel’s asking price has not dropped from its lofty mid-offseason perch. In the same tweet, Bowden notes that “sources close” to the 30-year-old believe he would “consider” sitting out the 2019 season if the offers continue to fall well short of his ask.

The seven-time all-star, who’s fanned at least 13.5 men per nine in each of his nine MLB seasons, entered the offseason primed to set a new record for both length and total value of a relief-pitching contract. His initial ask, as reported by The Athletic’s Jayson Stark and ESPN’s Buster Olney, was a 6-year deal for at least $100MM, a figure that, in this market, had little chance to be met. By Christmas, the price was hovering near Aroldis Chapman’s record-setting 5-year, $86MM deal, though it doesn’t appear to have fallen further in the weeks to come.

Though the demands seem reasonable, especially for Kimbrel’s former club, the deep-pocketed, reliever-starved Red Sox, a competitive market has thus far not emerged around the flame-thrower. Some of the tepid interest can surely be owed to the righty’s age (31 in May) and his declining peripherals (a career-worst 28.2% ground-ball rate, 1.01 HR/9, and 3.13 FIP/xFIP), but Kimbrel has bucked the volatile-reliever archetype as well as any in the history of the game, and his average fastball velocity, long a marker for imminent decline, still sits at a sizzling 97.5 MPH.

The rest, it seems, is centered in the avant-garde approach to player evaluation, where short-term, high-average-annual-value deals are all the rage, and even the richest clubs snub their noses at name-brands and track records. Certain suitors, like the free-spending Phils, are holding firmly to their internal valuations – as they did, recently, with Manny Machado – while others, like the division-rival Braves, are playing poor. Boston, of course, would be on the hook for nearly $30MM in 2019 if it were to sign him to a deal approaching his reputed ask, and can be reasonably excused for its reluctance.

The rest of the league, though – especially would-be contenders with back-end needs, like the Indians, Twins, Angels, and Cubs – seems to have little defense.

Angels Claim Kaleb Cowart

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The Angels have claimed RHP/IF/OF Kaleb Cowart from the Tigers, per a team release. The 26-year-old Cowart has spent his entire playing career with Los Angeles, but was claimed by both the Mariners and the Tigers earlier this offseason. Right-hander J.C. Ramirez has been placed on the 60-day DL to make room for Cowart on the 40-man roster.

The former first-rounder has worked all over the diamond in his four big-league stints with Los Angeles, appearing at 3B, 2B, SS, 1B, and LF in 2018 alone. Now, like Seattle and Detroit before it, the club has plans to try him as a two-way player.

Though Cowart’s yet to make a single mound appearance to this point in his professional career, he appeared to have a bright future there as an amateur. Per Baseball America’s pre-draft scouting report in 2010, Cowart worked in the 91-93 range with his fastball, which had “good sinking life” and was graded as a consensus plus pitch by most scouts at the time. He also featured a hard slider, which he reportedly paired with an average splitter.

At the plate, Cowart has never quite figured it out. In 380 lifetime plate appearances, the Georgia native has slashed a hideous .147/.241/.293 (47 wRC+), and recent returns haven’t been much better. 2018 was Cowart’s worst in a major-league box, and the switch-hitter also struggled to a .287/.333/.457 (just a 105 wRC+ in the high-elevation parks of the PCL) line for AAA-Salt Lake.

Cowart is out of options, so he’ll need to crack the Angels’ 25-man out of Spring or again be sent through the waiver process. A faceless pen, stocked mostly with bargain pickups and journeyman types, should help his cause.

Minor MLB Transactions: 2/23/19

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Rounding up the latest in minor moves…

  • The Nationals have reportedly signed OF Collin Cowgill and 1B/OF O’Koyea Dickson to minor league deals.  Cowgill, 32, has appeared in the majors for five organizations since his professional career began in 2008, slashing a decent .234/.297/.329 (79 wRC+) over 759 lifetime PA. He spent most of 2018 with Philadelphia’s AAA-Lehigh Valley affiliate, where he turned in a barely-above-average line in 93 games. Dickson had his Japanese sojourn cut short last season; the 29-year-old appeared in just 22 games for Rakuten in the Pacific League, slashing a meager .175/.217/.228. Dickson was thrust from obscurity after a .328/.398/.596 line for AAA-Oklahoma City in 2016; he appeared in seven late-season games for the Dodgers the next season, largely in a pinch-hitting role.

Quick Hits: Reds, Gray, Rangers, Red Sox, Porcello

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The Reds rotation upgrades are the story of their winter, though impending free agency for Alex Wood and Tanner Roark means there’s not much time for this unit to gel. Their third big addition, Sonny Gray, is the most significant of the three if only because he immediately signed a three year, $30.5MM extension. Unfortunately, Reds fans will have to wait for Gray’s debut, as he was scratched from his start today with right elbow stiffness, per the Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay. Gray came to camp sore a couple days after throwing a bullpen session, but the hope is a little extra rest will get Gray right again. The team did not perform an MRI, and there’s no reason to suspect anything serious at this time. Time to check in on another couple of stories from around the league…

  • Each January, the Rangers invite a select group of top pitching prospects for a week-long mini-camp with the major league staff in advance of Spring Training, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. This season, however, they sent an even smaller group of about ten pitchers to a “secret secondary-pitch intensive.” The camp takes place at Driveline Baseball, an increasingly ballyhooed research and development consultant founded by Kyle Boddy. Trevor Bauer is one noted client, as is a couple of potential feel-good stories of 2019, Kyle Zimmer of the Royals and the Cubs 37-year-old rookie Luke Hagerty. Among the Rangers sent to Driveline were bullpen hopefuls like C.D. Pelham, Brett Martin, Michael Matuella, Jason Bahr, Nick Snyder and Brady Feigl. The exact purpose of the camp remains unclear, and Jon Daniels and the Rangers have been none too keen to speak on the subject. Still, the Driveline story is one to track throughout the year, as we may be hearing more from the innovative research group.
  • Rick Porcello is open to furthering his time with the Red Sox, but they have yet to approach him about an extension, per Rob Bradford of WEEI Sports Radio Network. Porcello excelled in 2016 when he was able to limit walks and home runs en route to winning 22 games and the AL Cy Young, despite a FIP of only 3.40. Now in the final year of the four year, $82.5MM deal signed before that season, Porcello’s market value is tricky to pinpoint. The Cy Young raises his profile, though he remains closer to a mid-rotation workhorse than a top-of-the-rotation ace. He has a career 4.02 FIP, but he’s also on a remarkable run of durability that makes him an outlier in this era – he has started between 27 and 33 games each season for ten years running. Porcello, 30, is likely not as high on the Red Sox priority list as Chris Sale, Mookie Betts, and Xander Bogaerts.

Tigers Sign Josh Harrison

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Feb. 23, 12:10pm: The Tigers have announced the deal via a press release. Harrison is officially a member of the Detroit Tigers.

8:33pm: Harrison will be guaranteed $2MM and can earn an additional $1MM worth of incentives, tweets Jon Heyman of the MLB Network.

Feb. 20, 2:40pm: The Tigers have struck a one-year deal with infielder Josh Harrison, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link). Harrison will step in as the regular at second base for Detroit, per the report, though he’ll need to pass a physical for the deal to be finalized.

Josh Harrison | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Harrison, 31, is a versatile defender and quality baserunner whose bat has seen its ups and downs in recent years. Defensive metrics have favorably reviewed his work at both second base and third base, and he also has ample experience in the outfield corners. He hit the open market when the Pirates declined a $10.5MM option at the end of the 2018 season in which he managed just a .250/.293/.363 batting line in 374 plate appearances.

While he has had one big season at the plate, back in 2014, Harrison hasn’t come close to replicating it. Since, he has alternated between league-average and lesser seasons, with a cumulative .274/.319/.396 slash line in the four subsequent seasons. That sort of slightly below-average offensive output seems a reasonable expectation moving forward. Statcast hasn’t seen cause to expect better results in Harrison’s batted-ball profile; last year, for instance, he was graded at a meager .275 xwOBA that lagged his .285 wOBA.

Harrison will follow former Pittsburgh teammate and double-play partner Jordy Mercer to Detroit. They’ll bring plenty of experience and familiarity with one another to the Tigers’ middle infield mix. That doesn’t leave a ton of room for young players to emerge, but there really aren’t any who seem ready to force their way up at those positions, as the bulk of the high-end talent acquired in the Detroit rebuild to this point has been of the pitching variety.

The short-term nature of the contract makes it likely that Harrison will emerge as a trade chip alongside Mercer, Nicholas Castellanos and other appealing short-term Tigers assets this summer as Detroit continues stockpiling youthful pieces with an eye toward a return to contention in the American League Central.

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