Astros Notes: Keuchel, Springer, Correa, Altuve
The Astros’ enviable core of talent has already delivered one World Series title and set them up as contenders through at least next season. The big-picture question facing Houston, however, will be which members of the roster are kept over the long term. Here are some notes from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman on the state of any Astros contract extensions…
- Dallas Keuchel is currently in the process of switching his representation. The ace southpaw has one final year of arbitration eligibility (MLBTR projects him to earn $12.6MM) before hitting the open market as part of the star-studded 2018-19 free agent class. The agency change “and timing could suggest he’s thinking about change,” Heyman writes, though Keuchel has been willing to discuss an extension with the Astros in the past. Previous talks didn’t result in a long-term deal, however — Heyman notes that one of the team’s initial offers was similar to the early-career extensions signed by Madison Bumgarner and Chris Sale.
- There haven’t been any extension talks with George Springer in “at least a year and a half.” Houston also made an early-career extension offer to Springer, and then a significantly larger offer around two years ago. Springer is in line for extra money as a Super Two player, as he earned $3.9MM in 2017 and is projected for a big raise up to $8.9MM in 2018. Since the Astros have Springer under team control through the 2020 season, there isn’t any immediate need for an extension, unless the Astros want cost-certainty over his arb years or want to establish Springer as a long-term cornerstone player into the next decade.
- Some interesting details are provided on Jose Altuve‘s representation history, as the second baseman initially parted ways with Scott Boras in 2013 when Boras advised Altuve against signing an extension with the Astros. Altuve went on to indeed sign that extension in July 2013, and Altuve’s subsequent rise to superstar status made that four-year, $12.5MM deal with two club option years into a major bargain. (Houston exercised the first of those club options for 2018, netting Altuve another $6MM in guaranteed money.) Altuve re-hired Boras as his agent in July 2016, which Heyman writes “could be taken as an indication he has a different mindset now that he has the security” of that initial contract. Boras clients generally end up reaching free agency, though there have been enough high-profile exceptions to that trend (i.e. Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Gonzalez) that there is still hope at a longer-term deal to keep Altuve in Houston.
- Carlos Correa seems perfectly willing to go year-to-year until he hits free agency. The shortstop said last spring that he was at least willing to listen about a long-term deal but only until he hit his arbitration years; Greg Genske, Correa’s agent, made the bolder statement that Correa had no interest at all in an early-career extension. Last April, MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth explored the many forms a Correa extension could take, if the two sides did happen to come to an agreement. Correa will become eligible for arbitration next offseason, so the team has one more year to work out a multi-year deal, assuming Correa’s previously-stated deadline still holds.
Heyman’s Latest: Kapler, Hosmer, Kennedy, Werth, Ibanez, Bell
The Phillies‘ choice of Gabe Kapler as manager has drawn mixed reviews from around the game, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman writes, as Kapler’s unique approaches to baseball have brought him praise as an innovative thinker but also led to clashes with some players and personnel within the Dodgers organization. It should be noted that this didn’t extend to Dodgers front office heads Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi, both of whom are big fans of Kapler and made calls to the Mets and Phillies recommending him for their managerial openings. The Dodgers themselves almost hired Kapler as manager two years ago, though the fact that some players reportedly lobbied the team to instead go with Dave Roberts also stands out as a possible red flag. The article is well worth a full read to get a sense of the criticisms lobbied against Kapler, and why the Phillies’ hire “may be the biggest gamble of the winter.”
Some more from Heyman, as per his latest collection of notes from around baseball…
- The Royals‘ pursuit of Eric Hosmer could decide their immediate future, as the team could decide to forego re-signing any of their other free agents and rebuild if Hosmer can’t be brought back into the fold. It will take a sizeable offer to re-sign Hosmer, however, and while K.C. has been willing to spend to keep is championship window open, “their payroll is starting to press the limits.”
- Ian Kennedy won’t exercise his opt-out clause, and will remain with the Royals for the three years and $49MM remaining on his contract. While no official announcement has come from Kennedy or the team, the decision is an unsurprising one given the righty’s subpar season. Kennedy said himself in September that “it would be pretty stupid” to head into free agency on the heels of an injury-hampered year that saw Kennedy post a 5.38 ERA over 154 innings.
- Jayson Werth could potentially return to the Nationals on a one-year deal. Werth was hitting a solid .262/.367/.446 through his first 196 PA before missing almost three months due to a fracture in his left foot. He still seemed bothered by the injury after his return, leading to subpar numbers down the stretch. The Nats could conceivably use Adam Eaton as both a left fielder and center fielder next year, opening up playing time for Werth or Michael Taylor to fill whatever position Eaton isn’t occupying on any given day.
- Raul Ibanez was seen as a potentially strong contender to become the Yankees‘ next manager, though Ibanez reportedly likes his current position with the Dodgers (special advisor to Andrew Friedman) and doesn’t want to leave. Yankees GM Brian Cashman reportedly has 20-25 names on his list of managerial candidates.
- Newly-hired Giants VP of player development David Bell could potentially be a candidate to eventually take over the manager’s job from Bruce Bochy. Bell previously worked on the Cardinals’ and Cubs’ coaching staffs and worked as a manager in the Reds’ farm system, not to mention his 12-year career as a player. Bench coach Hensley Meulens has also been often cited as Bochy’s heir apparent. Bochy’s current contract runs through the 2019 season, and while his track record has likely given him the job as long as he wants, he also turns 63 in April and has dealt with some health issues in recent years.
NL East Notes: Nationals, Riley, Braves, Garcia
“There may be no ownership group in baseball that is more involved in the selection of its manager” than the Nationals, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post writes as part of a look at Dave Martinez’s hiring and owner Ted Lerner’s influence. Martinez’s three-year contract is “normal for the industry, outlandish for the Nats,” which indicates that Lerner (who just turned 92 last month) is more committed than ever to finally capture that elusive World Series championship. It could also hint at an aggressive offseason for Washington as it tries to add the final pieces to an already strong team.
Here’s more from around the NL East…
- The Braves have a need at third base, but David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution considers it unlikely that the team will look for a major upgrade at the hot corner this winter thanks to the presence of prospect Austin Riley. The 41st overall pick in the 2015 draft, Riley has shown solid power potential in his young career, including a .900 OPS in 203 Double-A plate appearances last season. With Riley perhaps on pace to crack the big leagues as a September call-up this year and then be in the mix for regular duty at third base in 2019, Atlanta doesn’t want to block his progress by adding a veteran on a long-term contract. MLBTR, for the record, predicted Mike Moustakas as a Braves signing this winter in our list of the top 50 free agents.
- The Braves‘ front office situation is still up in the air, though potential GM candidates could include such names as Alex Anthopoulos, Dan O’Dowd and Josh Byrnes, as per O’Brien (Twitter link) and MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. One interesting aspect of Atlanta’s search is that many of the names connected (this trio plus Jim Hendry, Dan Jennings, Ben Cherington, and rumored top choice Dayton Moore) are all former or current Major League general managers. This could indicate that the Braves want an experienced baseball operations leader who would be better equipped to operate despite whatever punishments or restrictions the organization could face once MLB concludes its investigation.
- The Marlins are considering stretching out left-hander Jarlin Garcia in Spring Training to give him a shot at a starting job, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes. Garcia made his MLB debut last year, posting a 4.73 ERA, 7.1 K/9 and 2.47 K/BB rate over 53 1/3 innings out of Miami’s bullpen. His numbers worsened as the season went on, however, which add to durability concerns about Garcia’s potential as a starter; Frisaro notes that the southpaw was converted to a relief role due to past concerns about his ability to stay healthy and effective as a starter. Assuming Garcia doesn’t run into any injury issues, the Marlins have little to lose by at least kicking the tires on his rotation potential, given how the club is sorely in need of starting pitching help.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/4/17
Here are some of the day’s notable minor moves:
- Right-hander Deolis Guerra has elected free agency, as per the Angels‘ official Twitter feed. Guerra was outrighted off the Halos’ 40-man roster on Thursday. The righty posted a 4.68 ERA, 7.9 K/9 and 1.83 K/BB rate over 25 relief innings for Los Angeles last season
- Infielder Phillip Evans is heading back to the Mets on a minors deal that includes a spring invite, per a club announcement. He made it up to the majors for the first time and had some success in a brief run. Evans spent the bulk of the year at Triple-A — his first action at the highest level of the minors — and ended with a .279/.341/.418 slash over 510 plate appearances.
- Outfielders Shane Robinson and Eric Young Jr. have elected free agency, the Angels announced. Both will likely end up with minor-league deals and camp invites, though perhaps Young in particular could land in a situation where he may have a shot at earning a bench role in camp. Robinson has struggled in his limited MLB time over the past two seasons, though he slashed .319/.379/.425 in 385 trips to the dish at Triple-A. Young had a productive run in a 125-plate appearance sample in the majors, slashing .264/.336/.418 while swiping a dozen bags. Like Robinson, he also showed well in precisely 385 plate appearances for Salt Lake, posting a .305/.375/.449 bating line while hitting the ball out of the park at an unprecedented personal rate (eight dingers in about half a season of work).
- Former big leaguer Ryan Feierabend will continue to pitch for the KBO’s KT Wiz, according to a Yonhap News report. The southpaw appeared in three-straight MLB campaigns beginning in 2006 (when he was just twenty years of age), but didn’t make it back until a brief showing in 2014. From there, it was on to the KBO. The 32-year-old emerged in 2017 as the league-leader in ERA. He’ll earn a bit over $1MM after providing 160 frames of 3.04 ERA ball with 7.4 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9.
- The Marlins have added lefty Miguel Del Pozo to their 40-man roster. Miami is evidently interested in protecting the 25-year-old lefty from minor league free agency (and the Rule 5 draft). Del Pozo returned from Tommy John surgery this year and briefly reached Double-A for the first time. He spent most of the season at the High-A level, where he allowed only one earned run while striking out 17 and issuing five walks in 16 2/3 frames.
- Likewise, the Nationals moved young right-hander Wander Suero onto their 40-man. Fresh off of being named the organization’s minor league pitcher of the year, the 26-year-old could conceivably compete for a pen spot in Spring Training. He worked to a 2.48 ERA, with 9.0 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9, over 65 1/3 innings of pitching in the upper minors in 2017.
Qualifying Offer Rumors: Saturday
The deadline for teams to issue qualifying offers is on Monday at 5pm EST. Between now and then, we’ll likely hear some chatter about players that likely will or will not receive the QO. It’s valued at $17.4MM this year. Those who need to brush up on the new rules should read this primer.
While quite a few situations are obvious (in either direction), it’s worth bearing in mind that there have been surprises in the past. The Rockies dropped a QO on Michael Cuddyer in 2014, for example, while the Nationals decided against giving one to Edwin Jackson back in the QO’s first year of operation (2012), only to see him sign a four-year deal with the Cubs.
Here’s the latest chatter from around the game:
- The Royals, unsurprisingly, will issue qualifying offers to each of their three major free agents, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Lorenzo Cain each feature prominently on MLBTR’s ranking of the top 50 free agents — indeed, all are rated among the seven most valuable players on the open market — so it’s hardly surprising to learn that K.C. is going in this direction. That said, there had been at least some suggestion that the team had yet to decide on Cain, who is a fair bit older than the other two departing core members of the Royals’ memorable 2014-15 teams. He still figures to be in high demand as the best-available center field on the upcoming market. All told, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where any of these three players accepts the qualifying offer, meaning that the Royals ought to be lined up for a nice haul of draft picks once the dust settles. (Of course, it’s also still possible that one or even more than one of these players will return to Kansas City, in which case no draft compensation would be triggered for that player.)
Sam Fuld Retires, Joins Phillies Front Office
Outfielder Sam Fuld has announced his retirement after an eight-year MLB career. He’ll build upon his legend by joining the Phillies front office as the team’s major league player information coordinator.
Fuld, 35, is a Stanford graduate who has long been seen as a potential future front office member. He was most recently seen on the field in the World Baseball Classic, playing for Team Israel, which represents a nice bookend for his playing career after rotator cuff surgery kept him out for all of 2016.
In just over fifteen-hundred overall trips to the plate in the majors, Fuld managed only a .227/.307/.325 batting line with a dozen home runs. Yet the former tenth-round pick managed to compile an even 5 career fWAR, due to his highly-rated defensive work and baserunning (including 67 total stolen bases).
Fuld opened his MLB time with the Cubs but will likely be best remembered as a member of the Rays and A’s. He endeared himself to the fans of those two low-budget clubs with his motor and body-sacrificing dives in the field. Fuld ultimately spent the bulk of his time with those two organizations; he also played in part of the 2014 campaign with the Twins, where he enjoyed one of his most productive runs at the plate.
It sounds as if Fuld is already well on his way to making a mark in a non-playing capacity. In his new role, the club says, he’ll “help integrate the use of information in all areas of on-field performance and preparation and make recommendations regarding the most effective areas of future research and analysis.” Former Orioles staffer Ben Werthan will hold a similar position on the minor league side of the equation, the Phillies also announced.
It certainly sounds as if Fuld is being hired to help translate analytical knowledge to the field while hopefully inspiring new frontiers from a player’s perspective. That seems to mesh with the team’s decision to hire the youthful Gabe Kapler as its next manager, a move that many observers are framing as something of a bold gambit.
Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
The 2017 season was borderline disastrous for the Rangers, who fell from a 95-67 record in 2016 to a 78-84 mark and a third place finish in the division. Texas dramatically outperformed its projected record in that AL West-winning ’16 campaign, so some regression was expected, but the team fell further than most would’ve figured and now faces some heavy offseason lifting.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Elvis Andrus, SS: $73MM through 2022 (can opt out of remaining four years, $58MM after 2018 season)
- Shin-Soo Choo, OF/DH: $62MM through 2020
- Rougned Odor, 2B: $48.5MM through 2022
- Cole Hamels, LHP: $28.5MM through 2018 (includes $6MM buyout of $20MM option for 2019)
- Adrian Beltre, 3B: $18MM through 2018
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jake Diekman (5.050) – $2.8MM
- A.J. Griffin (5.034) – $3.0MM
- Jurickson Profar (3.161) – $1.1MM
- Keone Kela (2.168) – $1.2MM
- Nick Martinez (2.149) – $2.0MM
- Ryan Rua (2.126) – $900K
- Non-tender candidates: Griffin, Martinez
Option Decisions
- Mike Napoli, 1B: $11MM club option with $2.5MM buyout; team has reportedly informed Napoli the option will be declined
- Martin Perez, LHP: $6MM club option with a $2.45MM buyout
- Tony Barnette, RHP: $4MM club option with a $250K buyout
Free Agents
- Carlos Gomez, Andrew Cashner, Mike Napoli, Miguel Gonzalez, Jason Grilli
[Texas Rangers Depth Chart | Texas Rangers Payroll Outlook]
More than half of the Rangers’ Opening Day roster struggled through some form of injury or unforeseen downturn in performance in 2017. Yu Darvish posted solid but unspectacular numbers for much of the first half, while Cole Hamels was sidelined more than two months with an oblique issue (to say nothing of his curiously evaporating strikeout rate). Jonathan Lucroy‘s power was nowhere to be found, and Rougned Odor batted .204 with a ghastly .252 OBP in the first season of a six-year contract extension that now looks questionable. The Rangers also lost Adrian Beltre and Carlos Gomez for prolonged stretches due to injury. The bullpen was an unmitigated disaster.
And yet, the Rangers clung to hope in the Wild Card race for much of the season, riding a breakout season from Elvis Andrus, a 41-homer campaign for Joey Gallo and quality results from Andrew Cashner for much of the season.
The Rangers’ foundation began showing some cracks — a particularly troubling development in Arlington considering the fact that the cross-state-rival Astros’ own young core elevated its game to a new level. The simultaneous nature of the Rangers’ decline and the Astros’ ascension has put Texas behind the eight ball as it looks to get back into contention in 2018 and beyond. While there have been many Rangers fans suggesting that the team needs to retool, if not all-out rebuild, GM Jon Daniels has been blunt in stating that his team is not rebuilding. So then, where do the Rangers turn to right the ship?
The most pressing need is on the pitching staff — specifically in the rotation. Hamels will return to lead the 2018 rotation but has just one guaranteed year remaining on his deal and looked more like a back-of-the-rotation arm than his usual self in 2017. His 6.4 K/9 rate was easily a career low, and his 9.7 percent swinging-strike rate was two points lower than his previous career-worst mark. He’ll be joined by Martin Perez, whose $6MM club option is a no-brainer even if his production looked like that of a fifth starter (4.82 ERA, 5.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 47.3 percent ground-ball rate in 185 innings).
Beyond that pair, the Rangers’ options are … uninspiring, to say the least. Cashner and trade acquisition Miguel Gonzalez are free agents, leaving the Rangers with Nick Martinez, A.J. Griffin, Clayton Blackburn and prospect Yohander Mendez as 2018 options. (Former first-round pick Chi Chi Gonzalez is recovering from Tommy John surgery and may not be ready early in the season.) If the Rangers have any hope of contending, they’ll need to add at least one more established arm to the mix, and quite possibly two.
A pursuit of a Darvish reunion, to some extent, could conceivably be explored. The decision to trade him was a reluctant one from Daniels and his staff, and Hamels’ potential departure after the 2018 season leaves the team with virtually no certainty in the rotation after next year. However, the Rangers didn’t extend him when they had the chance, and the team’s financial outlook is ungainly enough that it seems like a genuine long shot that Darvish will be re-signed.
Texas has a significant amount of money on the books through 2020 thanks largely to Shin-Soo Choo’s albatross deal, and Daniels has suggested that the payroll will step back a bit from this past year’s Opening Day mark of $165MM — perhaps in the $155MM range, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. They’ll be off the hook for some of Prince Fielder‘s salary after reaching an agreement with the insurers of his contract, and the club currently projects to about a $118MM payroll including Fielder and some non-tender/trade candidates. A backloaded Darvish deal shouldn’t be entirely written off as a possibility, but it’s tough to align Daniels’ stated desire to scale back payroll with a five- or six-year free-agent deal for Darvish that could check in with an annual value in the $23-26MM range.
The Rangers will also be prominently linked to Japanese star Shohei Otani, though they’ll face competition from 29 other teams if and when he’s posted. Daniels acknowledged that the Rangers would be one of many in the mix if Otani becomes available this winter — a reality that looks less likely with the new revelation that the posting system agreement between MLB and NPB has expired — but reports have connected Texas to the young right-hander/slugger much more prominently over the summer. Speculating on any sort of “favorite”to land Otani seems futile right now, especially since his earning power is capped by MLB’s international signing guidelines, but Texas will be involved.
If not Darvish or Otani, the Rangers will have the money to invest elsewhere. Signing a big-ticket arm such as Jake Arrieta will present the same long-term payroll complications as Darvish. Second-tier names like Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb will be available but will very likely come with draft compensation attached, as each is a strong qualifying offer candidate. Texas could also look at more affordable overseas options, with Miles Mikolas and Hideaki Wakui each eyeing MLB jobs after strong showings in Japan. Mikolas, in particular, has been loosely linked to Texas (where he last pitched before going to the NPB).
It’s a similar, albeit not quite as grave situation in the bullpen. Lefties Alex Claudio and Jake Diekman will be back in 2018, as will righties Keone Kela and Matt Bush (though Bush will be coming off shoulder surgery and has been suggested as a potential rotation candidate). Hard-throwing Jose Leclerc is an option after averaging nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings in 45 2/3 frames this year, but he also averaged a jaw-dropping 7.9 walks per nine. Austin Bibens-Dirkx, Ricardo Rodriguez and Nick Gardewine are all on the 40-man as well, but none impressed much as a big league reliever.
With no clear ninth-inning solution, Texas could conceivably take a run at a top-tier closer like Wade Davis or Greg Holland. But, again, with numerous needs up and down the roster — we’re not even to the position players yet — it seems likelier that Daniels & Co. will pursue quality assets in the second and third tier of the market. Brandon Morrow, Addison Reed and Mike Minor will probably have the most buzz on the second tier, while other options coming off strong seasons include Pat Neshek, Anthony Swarzak and old friend Tommy Hunter.
Turning to the lineup, the Rangers seem likely to let Robinson Chirinos shoulder the bulk of the load behind the dish. If they wish to push him back into a backup role, Welington Castillo and Alex Avila are options to serve as the primary receiver in Arlington next year. Both should command multi-year deals. Chris Iannetta and Nick Hundley are among the veteran backups if Chirinos is the first choice.
Most, if not all of the infield is set. Andrus performed so well in 2017 that the notion of him opting out of his contract after the 2018 season is now perfectly plausible — if not likely. Future Hall of Famer Adrian Beltre will be back at the hot corner, and for better or worse, second base will go to Odor as he looks to rebound from that aforementioned .252 OBP. First base looks likely to go to Joey Gallo, though the team could also elect to play Gallo in an outfield corner or at DH if the decision is made to pursue a free-agent first baseman. Eric Hosmer is almost certainly going to be out of the Rangers’ comfort zone, but Logan Morrison, Carlos Santana and Yonder Alonso are all conceivable possibilities on the market.
In the outfield, there’s less certainty. Willie Calhoun, the centerpiece from the Darvish trade with the Dodgers, could split his time between left field and DH if the Rangers want to go with an intriguing, bat-first option. He lacks experience, but Calhoun obliterated upper minors pitching in 2017 and is a consensus top 100 prospect. Otherwise, the Rangers have Nomar Mazara, Delino Deshields and Choo as options in the outfield (and, in Choo’s case, at designated hitter).
That’s not a very inspiring unit, unless Mazara bounces back and makes good on his longtime elite prospect status. Given that he won’t turn 23 until April and nonetheless has two full big league years under his belt, that shouldn’t come as a shock if it happens. But, that’s a lot to bank on, and the Rangers could be well served by at least adding a veteran outfielder that can handle center field or a corner. A reunion with Carlos Gomez certainly makes sense, with Jon Jay and Jarrod Dyson also representing viable free-agent alternatives.
The elephant in the room for the Rangers is Jurickson Profar. The former No. 1 overall prospect missed two seasons with shoulder injuries and was reportedly unhappy that he wasn’t traded prior to the non-waiver deadline. Texas simply doesn’t have at-bats to give him, having inked Andrus and Odor to long-term commitments at the middle infield positions. Profar didn’t hit much in a limited opportunity as a utilityman, but he did hit .287/.383/.428 in 383 Triple-A plate appearances this year.
That the Rangers elected not to give Profar a September call-up was notable for two reasons. First and foremost, it served as an even stronger indicator that his time with the organization is quite likely running out. A second, less obvious benefit to casual onlookers is that it prevented Profar from reaching four full years of MLB service time. Because he stayed in the minors, the Rangers will be able to market three years of Profar’s arbitration eligibility rather than two when shopping him this winter. Any team with regular middle-infield bats could plausibly be considered a suitor. The Padres, Royals, Angels, Mets, Blue Jays and Brewers all strike me as speculative landing spots.
Profar’s trade value will be a fraction of what it was at its apex, though one can hardly fault the Rangers for not moving him when he was the game’s top-rated prospect. The team got extremely unlucky when it came to Profar’s health, but that doesn’t mean it can’t salvage some decent value here. While Profar won’t command a massive return, the Rangers could get a similar reclamation project for the rotation or possibly an MLB-caliber bullpen arm, among other lesser pieces.
If a payroll in the $155MM range is indeed the target, the Rangers may only have $35-40MM worth of open payroll capacity in 2018, depending on non-tender and trade scenarios. While that’s certainly enough space to fill multiple needs, it’s a fairly modest amount for a club that needs multiple starters, at least one reliever (likely more) and some outfield and/or first base help. Texas can always try to dump some of the remaining three years and $62MM of Choo’s contract on another American League club with DH at-bats open (e.g. the White Sox), but doing so would require paying down some of the commitment and providing prospect value to the acquiring team. Alternatively, they could try to facilitate some kind of bad contract exchange, taking on a similarly undesirable contract that at least filled a team need (e.g. Ian Kennedy).
Regardless of which route the Rangers actually take, they’ll need to add several pieces with a relatively limited cache of resources if the team truly does not intend to embark on any kind of significant rebuild this offseason. With a stacked Astros roster looming over the AL West, the Rangers face an uphill battle in returning to contention for a division title. But, it’s also difficult to fault any AL team for eschewing a full rebuild when only five American League clubs finished with a .500 record this season..
Giants To Hire Curt Young As Pitching Coach
The Giants are set to hire Curt Young as their next pitching coach, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle (Twitter links). San Francisco announced previously that Dave Righetti would move to the front office after a lengthy run in that role.
Young, a former big league hurler, has previously enjoyed two fairly lengthy runs as the Athletics’ pitching coach. Oakland bumped Young from the job earlier this summer, much to the surprise of some other uniformed team members. He has also had a stint in that position with the Red Sox.
With the decision, the Giants have now mostly completed an overhaul of their coaching staff. Several previous coaches were removed from their jobs or shifted into other roles, and the club has already proceeded to hire Alonzo Powell as hitting coach.
Masahiro Tanaka Opts In To Final Three Years Of Yankees Contract
In a move that’s sure to jolt the market for starting pitchers, Yankees righty Masahiro Tanaka has decided against opting out of the remaining three years of his contract, he announced through the organization. Tanaka calls it a “simple decision” to remain with the organization, stating that he has “truly enjoyed the past four years playing for this organization and for the wonderful fans of New York.”
That sentiment will redound to the team’s favor, as he’ll remain under contract for a palatable $67MM guarantee over three season. It’s a lofty sum, no doubt, but still represents a discount against what Tanaka might have earned on the open market. Indeed, we estimated just yesterday in our Top 50 Free Agents post that Tanaka could take home $100MM over a five-year term in free agency.
Tanaka, who turned 29 just days ago, came to New York before the 2014 campaign on a contract that promised him $155MM over seven years — with the opportunity to opt out just past the midpoint. A star in Japan, Tanaka was seen by some as more of a mid-rotation hurler at the MLB level, but he was nevertheless vigorously pursued by multiple organizations.
That contract has worked out quite well for all involved. Though Tanaka was diagnosed with a partial UCL tear, he has mostly pitched through the injury. All told, he has compiled 668 1/3 innings of 3.56 ERA ball with 8.6 K/9 and 1.7 BB/9 during his tenure with the Yanks.
That stat line looked a whole lot better before the most recent season, in which Tanaka stumbled to a 4.74 ERA in his 178 1/3 innings. But then he turned in three sterling postseason starts, allowing just two earned runs on ten hits in twenty frames, which gave rise to a new narrative in which his October showing would lead him back onto the open market.
In truth, the real reason for the expectation (at MLBTR, at least) that Tanaka would opt out was not so much his final three outings, but the 16 that came before. Over his final 101 2/3 regular season frames, Tanaka worked to a 3.54 ERA with 118 strikeouts (on a 16% swinging-strike rate) against just twenty walks. With a jump in whiff rate and steady velocity, along with relative youth, teams would have had quite a lot of positives to weigh against Tanaka’s UCL woes.
In any event, the Yankees have now perhaps effectively made their biggest addition of the winter. With Tanaka on the books, New York has something in the realm of $144MM committed to payroll already (including projected arbitration salaries) and the club is seemingly committed to staying beneath the luxury tax line in 2018.
That said, there’s still significant room for the Yankees to spend, particularly if they free up additional payroll space by dealing away some of the remaining commitment to Jacoby Ellsbury. And the team has relatively little written in ink for the seasons to come, making it plausible to imagine the addition of a large contract. The Yanks do still need another starter, though a return for CC Sabathia (or a similarly shorter and smaller commitment) are perhaps more likely than another big outlay. Alternatively, the team could look into some luxury, short-term additions to create some platoon options and bolster the bench.
With Tanaka not only leaving the market, but staying with a team that might not otherwise have spent big at the position, this decision also ought to function as a boon to free agent starters (if not also organizations that possess controllable young starters to dangle in trade talks). Teams interested in a top-flight arm will now be battling over Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, while Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb also now seem in better position to maximize their earning power.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Marlins Hope To Trade Stanton, Gordon, Prado
NOV. 3: Miami is informing other teams that it is willing to listen on Stanton, Gordon, and Prado but will not entertain offers on Yelich and Ozuna at this time, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). Whether the stance on the latter two players might change isn’t yet clear. It’s possible that the club wishes to focus first on the other pieces.
OCT. 30: The Marlins have identified a “preferred path” to paring the team’s slate of player contracts for the 2018 season down to $90MM, according to a report from Barry Jackson and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Specifically, the club would like to move the contract of star outfielder Giancarlo Stanton along with those of infielders Dee Gordon and Martin Prado.
Talk of a possible Stanton swap has been building in earnest for months. And it comes as little surprise to hear that the team is indeed preparing to market him, given its reported intentions of making significant payroll reductions in the first offseason under new ownership. Obvious as it may be that now is the time to part with the slugger, it’s notable that the team has evidently chosen its direction even as it prepares to sit down with him in a few days’ time. (Stanton, of course, enjoys full no-trade protection and so will have a major say in things.) And the team’s reported intentions perhaps hint that the focus could be on moving all of Stanton’s salary rather than maximizing the prospect return.
[RELATED: Miami Marlins Offseason Outlook]
It’s also hardly an eye-opener to learn of the availability of Gordon and Prado. Both have been discussed as trade candidates in the past, with Gordon drawing some interest last year and Prado cited as a deadline possibility before he went down to injury. Trading these three players has some initial logic, since their respective 2018 salaries add up to nearly $50MM — which would leave the club right at its stated goal in view of its other commitments. And that would leave untouched the Marlins’ best assets.
Of course, the trouble lies in the details here. Prado, in particular, clearly wouldn’t earn anything close to his remaining obligations — two years and $28.5MM — were he instead a free agent. After all, he just turned 34 and produced a .250/.279/.357 batting line over just 147 plate appearances in an injury-riddled 2017 season. Though Gordon still looks to be a productive player worthy of a regular job, he’s a slightly below-average hitter whose value lies in his speed and glovework at second. He’s still just 29, but age could be a bigger concern with that skillset. Regardless, the market is loaded with options at second, which makes Gordon’s remaining commitment — $38MM over the next three years (including a 2021 option buyout) — appear to be less than a screaming bargain. Even Stanton, fresh off of a 59-dinger outburst, arguably does not come with much or any surplus value as against the overall remaining guarantee ($295MM) in his mammoth contract.
Actually getting rid of the 2018 commitments to these three players, then, simply won’t be a matter of handing off their contracts. Even if competitors are willing to absorb the entirety of the Stanton and Gordon deals, they likely won’t be sending much in the way of talent back in return. And Prado clearly represents a possible salary dump at this point, meaning the Fish would need to send additional talent along with him if the hope is to clear his salary. Unless the team is willing to sell away prospects, that’d mean dealing other, more valuable assets from the MLB roster.
The realities of the situation make clear that the Marlins will need to oversee a net talent outflow — or, at least, a reshuffling that results in a reduction of their major league talent in favor of prospects. Yet the report also cites a source that indicates the team would rather not part with J.T. Realmuto, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Justin Bour, and Dan Straily — which doubles as a list of those Marlins players that are worth quite a bit more than they are due to earn.
Clearly, something has to give here, which the Marlins front office surely realizes. What’s perhaps most notable about the report, though, is the apparent suggestion that the team won’t independently look to deal from its base of affordable, quality talent. It goes without saying that the Marlins shouldn’t give away such players for less than a compelling return, but it’s arguably unwise to move Stanton, Gordon, and Prado while not embarking upon a broader rebuilding effort. Ozuna, especially, is getting expensive (a projected $10.9MM for 2018) and will be a free agent after 2019.
It’s understandable that the team wishes to hold onto as many recognizable players as it can, but there’d be little to no hope of a turnaround for a team that has failed to perform as hoped in recent years. Miami’s pitching staff is among the worst in baseball and obviously won’t be buttressed by any significant free-agent spending. Stanton is all but irreplaceable. Derek Dietrich could step in for Gordon, but that would mean extending him as a player and reducing his value as a utility asset. And the left side of the infield would presumably be entrusted to some combination of JT Riddle, Miguel Rojas, and Brian Anderson, an inexperienced group that hardly inspires confidence of delivering compelling output in the near future.
That being said, there is another way to read the report. Perhaps the team will still be willing to entertain offers on its more appealing assets, even if it won’t seek deals for them owing to payroll pressures. Viewed in that manner, it may be a fairly prudent approach to embarking upon a rebuild. Ultimately, from my vantage point, it would be surprising to see the Marlins open the coming season with all of Realmuto, Yelich, Ozuna, Bour, and Straily on the roster.
In other news, the Herald duo cover the latest in front office moves from the Marlins. The new ownership group has now parted ways with more than twenty employees from various departments. You’ll want to read the story for all the details.