Quick Hits: Nationals, Baker, Red Sox, NPB
While Nationals manager Dusty Baker is entering a contract year, that won’t be the case for long, suggests Pete Kerzel of MASNsports.com. By the time the Nationals begin spring training in mid-February, Kerzel expects the club to extend Baker’s deal. The soon-to-be 68-year-old Baker is only one season into his Nats tenure, but it was a successful campaign for the franchise. Washington went 95-67 in 2016 en route to a National League East title and a five-game NLDS loss to the Dodgers. Baker, formerly with the Giants, Cubs and Reds, is now 17th all-time in managerial wins (1,766) and should vault into the top 15 next season.
A couple more notes from around baseball on a quiet first day of 2017 (happy New Year, readers!):
- Two-way superstar Shohei Otani understandably receives almost all the attention when it comes to players currently in Japan, but he’s not the only member of Nippon Pro Baseball with major league upside, as Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues details. Four pitchers – right-handers Kohei Arihara, Shintaro Fujinami, Takahiro Norimoto and southpaw Yusei Kikuchi – and infielder Tetsuto Yamada are names to watch, per Axisa. Interestingly, Fujinami rivaled Otani as a pitching prospect in 2012, though he obviously hasn’t taken off to nearly the same extent since. The 22-year-old Fujinami is nevertheless a strikeout machine who logged a 3.25 ERA in 169 innings last season; unfortunately, though, he’s likely at least a few seasons away from coming to the majors because of the new collective bargaining agreement.
- The Red Sox remain one of the majors’ most talented teams despite losing designated hitter David Ortiz to retirement, but filling his leadership void could be a significant obstacle next season, opines Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. Among the current Red Sox, highly respected second baseman Dustin Pedroia stands out as the likeliest to take over for Ortiz, writes Mastrodonato. Pedroia, for his part, is confident the club will be fine without Ortiz’s clubhouse presence. “We’re in good shape,” Pedroia said. “I think, especially what David did leadership-wise with a ton of guys, he’s leaving us in good shape. We’ll be all right.”
Poll: Free Agent Relievers
Before they inked mega-deals earlier this offseason, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon understandably dominated headlines as the unquestioned best relievers available in free agency. No one remaining on the market will land a contract even approaching theirs (Melancon’s on the low end at a whopping $62MM), but there are still several proven late-game commodities who haven’t signed yet.
Melancon is taking over as the Giants’ closer, a role previously held by a pair of current free agents in Santiago Casilla and Sergio Romo. The 36-year-old Casilla has saved 127 games, including 31 in 2016, but he racked up a major league-worst nine blown opportunities last season and, despite posting 10.09 K/9 against 2.95 BB/9, logged his highest ERA (3.57) since 2009. On the plus side, Casilla exceeded 50 innings for the seventh straight year (58), recorded a respectable ground-ball rate in line with his career average (47.6 percent compared to 48.7 percent) and didn’t experience a drop in velocity.
Romo, who will turn 34 in March, got better results than Casilla last year (2.64 ERA), but he only threw 30 2/3 innings and saw his velocity tumble to career lows. Despite that, Romo’s 14.9 percent swinging strike rate was in the upper echelon among relievers, as was his 13.9 percent infield fly mark (slightly better than Casilla’s 13.2). Romo also yielded the second-lowest exit velocity in the majors, per Statcast, to go with 9.68 K/9 against 2.05 BB/9. While Romo didn’t figure prominently into the ninth inning over the past couple seasons, he nonetheless has an accomplished end-of-game resume with 84 saves and 141 holds in his career.
No free agent has done a better job securing wins than longtime Royal Greg Holland, who has 145 saves (125 of which came from 2013-15). Holland was especially brilliant between 2011-14, a four-year period during which he combined for the majors’ fourth-best ERA (1.86) and the league’s sixth-ranked K/9 (12.57) across 256 1/3 frames. Holland then fell off in 2015 (3.83 ERA), a year in which his velocity declined and his BB/9 spiked to 5.24 (up from 3.52), thanks in part to a “significant” UCL tear. That injury led to October 2015 Tommy John surgery for Holland, who missed all of last season as a result. In spite of that, a hefty portion of the league has expressed interest in the 31-year-old this winter.
Like Casilla, Romo and Holland, Neftali Feliz brings vast ninth-inning experience (99 saves), though the ex-Rangers closer worked as a setup man with the Pirates last season. Along the way, Feliz accumulated 29 holds in 53 2/3 frames and registered a 3.52 ERA, 10.23 K/9 and 3.52 BB/9 to bounce back from a 2015 in which he finished with mediocre or worse numbers in those three categories (6.38 ERA, 7.31 K/9 and 3.38 BB/9). The 28-year-old did put up the second-lowest infield fly rate of his career last year (15.4), but it was still easily above the 9.9 percent league-average figure and went well with a personal-high swinging strike mark of 14.2 percent. Feliz also saw his velocity jump in 2016, which could further entice clubs searching for late-game help.
Contrary to the above four, Joe Blanton has never been a closer – the 36-year-old has mostly worked as a starter, in fact – but not many have been better out of the bullpen over the past couple seasons. Last year was Blanton’s first as a full-time reliever, and the then-Dodger finished sixth in innings (80) and compiled a 2.48 ERA, 9.00 K/9 and 2.93 BB/9. The slider-heavy Blanton also got swinging strikes a career-high 14.2 percent of the time (up from 13.0 in 2015), though both his 32.3 percent ground-ball rate and 5.3 percent infield pop-up mark stand out as concerns.
While these five aren’t in the Chapman-Jansen-Melancon class, all could serve as boons to their next teams’ bullpens. In your opinion, which member of the group is the most desirable target? Or, instead of this quintet, maybe there’s another free agent reliever you’d rather have.
(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)
Who's The Best Reliever Left On the Open Market?
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Greg Holland 54% (6,049)
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Neftali Feliz 14% (1,547)
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Joe Blanton 13% (1,452)
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Sergio Romo 11% (1,189)
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Santiago Casilla 5% (532)
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Other 5% (510)
Total votes: 11,279
3 Remaining Needs: American League Central
To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.
So far, we’ve checked in on the NL West, NL East and AL East. Here’s the AL Central, a division which features the reigning league champions…
- Outfield Depth: The Indians are fine on paper with Michael Brantley, Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall and Brandon Guyer representing their primary outfield options, but there’s uncertainty surrounding Brantley. The star-caliber performer from 2014-15 missed all but 11 games last season because of a shoulder injury, and while he and the team are optimistic about his status, “better safe than sorry” applies. With that in mind, the Indians have been connected to free agents like Rajai Davis, a member of the Tribe in 2016, and Michael Saunders. Davis would be the more realistic acquisition, but Cleveland’s payroll limitations are standing in the way of a deal. Whether it’s Davis or someone else, though, having another outfielder – one who’s more established than Abraham Almonte – would be nice.
- Left-Handed Reliever: Again, after winning the Edwin Encarnacion sweepstakes, the Indians might not have the financial freedom to do much else. Nevertheless, they have been in the market for a left-handed reliever, perhaps to take some pressure off Andrew Miller late in games. While Miller is arguably the best reliever in the sport, the Indians will have to monitor his workload to some degree next season after their liberal usage of him last year.
- Utility Infielder: As you can probably tell, the Indians aren’t exactly loaded with weaknesses; hence the “need” to add competition for a reserve infield spot. After a strong season at Triple-A Columbus, Erick Gonzalez is the front-runner to serve as a backup to the Indians’ high-caliber group of infield starters. Michael Martinez could push for a spot, but he has been a woeful hitter in his major league career (.197/.241/.266 in 578 plate appearances). Signing a cheap free agent to vie for a role might not be a bad idea, then.
- Cut Payroll: General manager Al Avila made it clear at the outset of the offseason that the Tigers, who exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2016, need to scale back their spending. Trading on-the-block outfielder J.D. Martinez and his $11.75MM salary would help in that regard, but it would subtract a key piece from what should be a playoff-contending roster. It would be far more beneficial for Detroit’s chances in 2017 to somehow jettison at least one of Anibal Sanchez ($21MM, including a $5MM buyout in 2018) or Mike Pelfrey ($8MM). Teams have checked in on the two right-handers this offseason, but it’s unclear if serious talks have developed.
- Center Field: While the Tigers shed money earlier in the offseason in trading Cameron Maybin to the Angels, doing so left them devoid of even a somewhat proven center fielder. In the wake of Maybin’s exit, Avila said last month he’s seeking center field help “on every front,” as his top in-house choices for next season are Tyler Collins, JaCoby Jones and Anthony Gose. Free agency offers some veterans who shouldn’t cost much in ex-Tiger Austin Jackson, Peter Bourjos and Desmond Jennings, among others, though Avila acknowledged that acquiring a center fielder via trade is a possibility.
- Figure Out The Bullpen: This is mostly in reference to left-handed reliever Justin Wilson, who has drawn significant interest on the trade market this offseason. As is the case with Martinez, though, shipping Wilson out would damage Detroit’s chances of contending in 2017. Plus, Wilson isn’t even particularly expensive (MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz forecasts a $2.7MM arbitration award). The Tigers are also listening to offers for right-hander Shane Greene, but they’re better positioned to absorb losing him with righties like Francisco Rodriguez, Alex Wilson, Bruce Rondon and minor league destroyer Joe Jimenez in the fold. On the other hand, the only non-Justin Wilson southpaw reliever on their projected 25-man roster is Rule 5 pick Daniel Stumpf.
- Bullpen: Like Cleveland and Detroit, Kansas City is another AL Central team dealing with payroll constraints. The Royals aren’t eager to tear things down, though, which would be an easy route to take for a team with so many integral players entering contract years. One of those cogs, closer Wade Davis, is now gone. GM Dayton Moore sent him to the Cubs for a major league contributor – and one with high upside – in outfielder Jorge Soler, which saved the Royals $7MM. That was a sound move by the Royals, but they now have a gaping hole in their bullpen because of it. As a result, they’re searching for a late-game complement to Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria, with longtime Royals and now-free agents Greg Holland and Luke Hochevar on the radar.
- Starting Pitcher: Edinson Volquez and Dillon Gee combined for 314 1/3 innings last year – albeit not overly effective ones – and are now out of the organization. The Royals’ depth has taken a hit, then, and they’re on track to rely on Matt Strahm – who was brilliant in relief in 2016 – and 2015 Tommy John surgery recipient Jason Vargas to step into their starting five alongside Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura. That quintet has the potential to succeed, but the club should protect against injuries and/or underwhelming performances with an outside acquisition who’s an upgrade over the likes of Chris Young and Mike Minor. Jason Hammel is reportedly an option if his price comes down enough, but that seems like a long shot. If so, there are several other veteran starters on the open market who will come at lesser costs should the Royals look to bolster their rotation depth.
- Middle Infielder: With Whit Merrifield and 2016 third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert around, the Royals might be able to address this concern from within. That would be ideal for an organization whose other middle infielders scuffled last season. Shortstop Alcides Escobar (.261/.292/.350 in 682 PAs), second baseman Raul Mondesi (.185/.231/.281 in 149 PAs) and backup Christian Colon (.231/.294/.293 in 161 PAs) brought nothing to the table at the plate in 2016.
- Keep Dealing Veterans: GM Rick Hahn said last summer that the White Sox’s direction for 2017 would become obvious early in the offseason. True to his word, Hahn shipped out ace Chris Sale and outfielder Adam Eaton for a cavalcade of touted prospects at the Winter Meetings, thereby announcing that Chicago’s in a rebuild. Sale and Eaton probably aren’t going to be the last known commodities to leave the organization via trade in the coming months, either, as front-line starter Jose Quintana, third baseman Todd Frazier, first baseman Jose Abreu, closer David Robertson and outfielder Melky Cabrera are also available.
- Outfield: The likes of Avisail Garcia, Charlie Tilson and Jason Coats will compete for starting roles alongside Cabrera in left, while waiver claim Rymer Liriano (.220/.289/.266 in his 121-PA major league debut last season) is set to serve as depth. That’s an unspectacular collection of players, clearly, and even the 24-year-old Tilson – the youngest of the bunch – merely projects as a reserve or below-average regular, according to FanGraphs prospect guru Eric Longenhagen. Given the state of the franchise, the White Sox don’t need to make a splash with a big-time outfield pickup, but finding someone to supplement their current group via free agency would be sensible. Adding an inexpensive outfield bat this offseason might serve a purpose around next summer’s trade deadline, where the White Sox could flip that player for another prospect(s) if he shows well.
- Catcher: The White Sox aren’t exactly in great shape behind the plate with Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith as their top options at the moment. The 24-year-old Narvaez has more upside than Smith, 28, though the former doesn’t have an overly promising track record as either a hitter or pitch framer. Free agency doesn’t offer much in the way of solutions, but the White Sox could benefit from Matt Wieters‘ decision. If he signs with the Braves, for instance, the Sox would be wise to at least inquire about their former backstop, Atlanta’s Tyler Flowers. On the other hand, the Nationals could shop one of their well-regarded veteran framers – Derek Norris or Jose Lobaton – if they sign Wieters. White Sox pitchers have lost a lot of strikes lately because of subpar framing, so finding a backstop capable of aiding young starters like Carlos Rodon, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez would be logical.
- Decide Brian Dozier‘s Fate: The Twins’ star second baseman has been on the block throughout the offseason, and a resolution finally looks imminent. New Twins front office bosses Derek Falvey (chief baseball officer) and Thad Levine (general manager) have asked teams to submit their final offers for Dozier and will soon determine whether to trade him. Minnesota is arguably in a win-win position with Dozier, as it’ll either land a high-end prospect (or more) for him or retain one of the sport’s best second baseman for at least a bit longer. The Brewers were in a similar position last year with catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who didn’t go anywhere in the offseason despite myriad rumors. Milwaukee then shipped him to Texas during the summer for a prospect bounty. Dozier, like Lucroy last winter, has two years of team control left at a palatable price tag ($15MM combined).
- Starting Pitching: The Twins have asked teams for controllable starting pitching in their Dozier talks, and they might secure a potential long-term piece in Jose De Leon if a deal with the Dodgers materializes. Otherwise, the Twins have shown interest this offseason in low-cost veterans like Clayton Richard, who re-signed with the Padres, and Justin Masterson. The club has four veteran starters in Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes, and acquiring a fifth could lead to all three of Jose Berrios, Tyler Duffey and Adalberto Mejia receiving further seasoning at the Triple-A level.
- Bullpen: Levine revealed a couple weeks ago that Minnesota is searching for experienced late-game arms, and there are a slew of those available in free agency. Even though the Twins aren’t contenders, offering a veteran a prominent eighth- or ninth-inning role could entice one to join the club. The rebuilding Twins could then shop that player as the season progresses if he fares nicely.
MLBTR Originals
Recapping MLBTR’s original content from the past week:
- Before first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion agreed to join the Indians, Jeff Todd asked readers to predict where he would sign. The plurality of voters accurately predicted Cleveland would be Encarnacion’s destination.
- A transaction-filled December was winding down at the time, so I polled readers on which move looks like the most questionable decision of the month. The MLBTR audience doesn’t seem too bullish on the Nationals’ choice to trade a significant prospect haul to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton.
- Two NL East center fielders, the Phillies’ Odubel Herrera and the Braves’ Ender Inciarte, signed extensions earlier this month. With that in mind, Jeff compared their deals and wondered which team got the superior value. According to the majority of voters, the Braves did better.
- Given that the Reds haven’t signed a major league free agent this offseason, Steve Adams and Jeff detailed 10 available players – all relievers – who are logical fits to end up in Cincinnati.
- After Encarnacion and right-hander Ivan Nova exited the open market, I updated the top 10 free agents left on the board. The list is based on the Top 50 that Tim Dierkes assembled entering the winter. Slugger Mark Trumbo is likely poised to sign the richest contract of the remaining free agent class.
- Mark Polishuk highlighted 10 teams that will soon have decisions to make on managers and/or front office bosses who are entering contract years.
- Cubs ace-caliber right-hander Jake Arrieta is going into a contract year, so Jeff looked at what it might cost the World Series champions to extend him this offseason. Most voters don’t expect a deal to come together.
- Unlike Arrieta, Cardinals righty Carlos Martinez is a few years from free agency. Nevertheless, Jeff tried to nail down how much it might cost St. Louis to extend the first-time arbitration-eligible 25-year-old.
- Steve listed seven possible landing spots for free agent catcher Matt Wieters, whom voters expect to sign with the Braves.
- Speaking of catchers, Steve pondered whether Sandy Leon, Blake Swihart or Christian Vazquez stands the best chance to serve as the Red Sox’s long-term answer behind the plate.
- Many free agents are fresh off less-than-stellar years, though Jeff made cases for 20 players – 10 hitters and pitchers apiece – who could be in line for bounce-back 2017 campaigns.
- While it seems Ian Desmond will man first base for the Rockies next season, that isn’t necessarily etched in stone. Thus, Jeff delved into several other possibilities – including Trumbo.
- The top two unsigned left-handed relievers are Jerry Blevins and Boone Logan, leading Jeff to contemplate which is the more appealing option.
- Capping off a busy week for Jeff, he detailed each NL West team’s three biggest remaining needs as Spring Training inches closer. Mark did the same with the AL East, while I handled the NL East.
3 Remaining Needs: National League East
To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.
In the first two editions of this series, Jeff Todd broke down the NL West and Mark Polishuk examined the AL East. Now a look at where the NL East’s five teams stand as the calendar flips:
- Bullpen: With Mark Melancon gone, the Nationals are currently projected to rely on Shawn Kelley (11 career saves) as their closer. Based on his output the past couple seasons, Kelley is worthy of the role, but there are durability concerns with the soon-to-be 33-year-old. Kelley has never thrown more than the 58 frames he tossed last season; more alarmingly, he’s a two-time Tommy John surgery recipient who, per a study done by MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum, comes with an elevated risk to eventually need another procedure. Even without Kelley’s injury history, acquiring relief help is in order. Washington got a combined 242 2/3 innings last season from Melancon, Yusmeiro Petit, Felipe Rivero, Matt Belisle, Jonathan Papelbon, Reynaldo Lopez and Marc Rzepczynski. Not a single one of them is a member of the organization anymore. Therefore, it would make sense to add at least one more veteran to the likes of Kelley, Blake Treinen, Sammy Solis and Oliver Perez. The club already tried to re-sign Melancon and reel in Kenley Jansen, but those attempts failed. Even with those two off the board, free agency is hardly bereft of options. In the event Washington decides to stick with in-house choices, it has a couple intriguing youngsters in Koda Glover and Trevor Gott.
- Infield Depth: The Nationals’ infield depth took a hit with the loss of Danny Espinosa, and current free agent Stephen Drew could also be in another uniform next season. Either re-upping Drew, which is a possibility, or signing another veteran would give the team more proven insurance than Wilmer Difo (77 career plate appearances) behind second baseman Daniel Murphy, shortstop Trea Turner and third baseman Anthony Rendon. Murphy is capable of playing first base if Ryan Zimmerman endures another poor year or suffers an injury in 2017, but that would leave the team wanting at the keystone.
- Rotation Depth: In trading Lopez and Lucas Giolito to the White Sox for outfielder Adam Eaton, the Nats subtracted some of their starting pitching depth. That’s somewhat concerning given that starters Stephen Strasburg and Joe Ross are coming off injury-plagued years, which perhaps increases the need to add rotation insurance behind those two, Max Scherzer, Tanner Roark and Gio Gonzalez. A.J. Cole and Austin Voth might suffice thereafter, but there’s very little of intrigue beyond them (Double-A prospect Erick Fedde could crack the major leagues sometime next season, granted). The Nationals had an established veteran starter in camp last year in Bronson Arroyo, who ended up missing 2016 because of injuries, and could look for a similar depth option prior to next season.
- Outfield: There are only two corner outfield spots, yet the Mets arguably have four starting-caliber players on hand in Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto and Jay Bruce. Cespedes isn’t going anywhere, obviously, and Conforto’s place on the roster appears secure. The writing is on the wall, then, for either Granderson or Bruce (very likely the latter) to exit the organization via trade by next season. The Mets have been reluctant to deal Bruce without getting anything useful in return, but they might have to settle for dumping his salary in order to clear their corner outfield logjam and free up spending room. In doing so, New York would still face uncertainty in center field. Juan Lagares has fallen off since a strong 2014 showing that led the Mets to sign him to a four-year extension with $23MM in guarantees. Cespedes and Granderson also have experience in center, but neither is an ideal fit there. The Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen has come up as a trade possibility, but he was a defensive nightmare last season and the Mets aren’t actively looking to acquire him (or any other center fielder), anyway.
- Right-Handed Reliever: The Mets are going to lose closer Jeurys Familia to at least a month-long suspension, which will leave the team with Addison Reed and Hansel Robles as its go-to choices to preserve late leads. Mindful of that, general manager Sandy Alderson has checked in on the likes of Wade Davis (before the Royals traded him to the Cubs), Brad Brach (Orioles) and Alex Colome (Rays) on the trade front this winter, but nothing has materialized. White Sox closer David Robertson represents another possible acquisition, though he’d be a costly pickup. There are still appealing names on the open market, where Greg Holland, Joe Blanton, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Neftali Feliz and 2016 Met Fernando Salas are among those without contracts.
- Left-Handed Reliever: New York has three lefty relievers on its projected 25-man roster in Josh Edgin, Josh Smoker and Sean Gilmartin, but none had encouraging 2016 campaigns (in fairness to Edgin, he was on the rebound from 2015 Tommy John surgery and finished the year well). Jerry Blevins was terrific last season, but he’s now a free agent and, along with Boone Logan, one of the top two southpaw setup men left in free agency. The Mets have shown interest in each this offseason, but payroll limitations have prevented them from signing either (presumably, they’ve also stood in the way of securing right-handed help).
- Starting Pitcher: Forced to forge ahead without the late, great Jose Fernandez, the Marlins have made a couple unexciting additions to their rotation this winter with the signings of Edinson Volquez and Jeff Locke. They now have a full starting five on paper with those two joining Wei-Yin Chen, Adam Conley and Tom Koehler, but it’s not the most confidence-inspiring group. With that in mind, Miami is still in the market for a starter, though it’s seemingly limiting itself to low-cost depth types. Luckily for the Marlins, there are plenty of those left in free agency.
- First Base: As long as they’re facing a right-handed pitcher, the Marlins are in fine shape at first base with Justin Bour. But, in an admittedly small sample size of 110 major league plate appearances, the lefty-swinging Bour has struggled mightily against southpaw hurlers (.223/.273/.291, no home runs). Thus, it would behoove the Fish to find a better platoon partner for Bour than the penciled-in Miguel Rojas – although a righty, he has posted a woeful .184/.225/.272 line versus lefties in 122 PAs. Any of Dae-ho Lee, Mark Reynolds, Trevor Plouffe, Adam Rosales or 2016 Marlin Chris Johnson could be realistic targets via free agency. Miami hasn’t closed the door on re-signing Johnson, who – despite a subpar 2016 – has historically held his own against lefties.
- Left-Handed Reliever: It’s not a must for the Marlins to find a southpaw reliever, as their most prominent righty options – A.J. Ramos, Brad Ziegler, David Phelps, Kyle Barraclough and Junichi Tazawa – are capable of getting all hitters out. Nevertheless, it would be nice for the club to have more than one left-handed reliever on its 40-man roster. As of now, only Hunter Cervenka is in the fold, though same-sided batters hit a paltry .198/.306/.318 against the then-rookie last season. Signing a free agent like Javier Lopez could make sense; even though the longtime Giant’s coming off a season to forget, he has a lengthy track record of success preventing runs and would like to remain close to his Georgia home.
- Third Base: Their interest in Brian Dozier notwithstanding, the Braves appear to have a respectable offensive platoon lined up at second base with Jace Peterson and Sean Rodriguez. On the other side of the diamond, finding a complement to right-handed-hitting third baseman Adonis Garcia would be beneficial. Garcia has hit an underwhelming .262/.293/.407 in 152 trips to the plate against righties, while reserve Chase d’Arnaud (also a righty) hasn’t done any better (.218/.278/.278 in 279 PAs). Free agent Luis Valbuena is a potential fit, but he’s an upgrade over Garcia in general and would warrant an everyday role. Otherwise, the aforementioned Stephen Drew – a left-handed hitter and Georgia native – could be a reasonable free agent target to pair with Garcia.
- Bullpen: As it stands, the Braves’ sole 30-something reliever is closer Jim Johnson, with Arodys Vizcaino and Ian Krol serving as only semi-established options. While it’s quite possible the Braves are comfortable with a mostly young bullpen that will also include Mauricio Cabrera and Jose Ramirez, among others, signing one of the many available veterans on a short-term deal would have a chance to pay dividends over the long haul. For example, the Braves could take a similar approach to last year’s Padres, who bought low on Fernando Rodney, got a few good months out of him and flipped him for a prospect prior to the trade deadline. That’s assuming the Braves aren’t contenders next year, of course.
- Catcher: With Tyler Flowers and Anthony Recker in the equation, this arguably isn’t a pressing short-term need for a rebuilding club, but free agent backstop Matt Wieters is nonetheless on Atlanta’s radar. It’s debatable how much of an upgrade (if at all) the ex-Georgia Tech star would be over Flowers, though. Wieters, unlike Flowers, is not a well-regarded pitch framer, and the longtime Oriole is coming off one of his worst offensive seasons. If Atlanta doesn’t land the switch-hitting Wieters, it’ll likely be content to roll with Flowers and Recker next season.
- Corner Outfield: The Phillies’ most proven corner outfield bat belongs to Howie Kendrick, who has played 1,100 games at second base compared to just 114 in left field and is coming off a below-average offensive year. While the rebuilding club could simply utilize Kendrick and younger players like Roman Quinn, Aaron Altherr and Tyler Goeddel (the latter two were dreadful in 2016) next season, dipping into free agency for another outfielder remains a possibility. If general manager Matt Klentak does sign anyone, odds are it’ll be a left-handed hitter. Of the previously mentioned four, only the switch-hitting Quinn is capable of batting from the left side.
- Bullpen: Klentak has revealed he’s looking for more relief help, though he has already been busy on that front throughout the offseason. Philadelphia has acquired three stopgaps in Joaquin Benoit, Pat Neshek and Sean Burnett (on a minor league deal), but its projected major league bullpen could stand to make improvements beyond Benoit, Neshek, Hector Neris and Jeanmar Gomez.
- Left-Handed Starter: The Phillies’ starting five at the moment features nothing but right-handers, and Adam Morgan is their only Triple-A starter who’s a southpaw. Perhaps it would be logical to sign a swingman like Travis Wood, who could initially work out of the bullpen (joining fellow lefty Joely Rodriguez) and then potentially factor into the rotation if someone suffers an injury or underperforms.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: CBA, Orioles, Indians, Jays, Yanks, Pirates
This week in baseball blogs:
- Unsung Zeroes breaks down the ramifications of the newly minted collective bargaining agreement.
- Jays From the Couch blames Edwin Encarnacion‘s agent for the first baseman/designated hitter’s departure from Toronto.
- Camden Depot ponders the future of Orioles center fielder Adam Jones.
- Real McCoy Minor News chats with Indians outfield prospect Bradley Zimmer.
- The 3rd Man In interviews highly touted 2017 draft prospect Royce Lewis.
- When Sid Slid praises the Braves for their work this winter and looks ahead to next offseason.
- Pirates Breakdown (links here) identifies potential bargain outfielders and relievers for the Bucs to target in free agency.
- MLB451 wonders if anyone is today’s game is capable of finishing a season with more home runs than strikeouts.
- Call To The Pen suggests a few moves that would help the rebuilding Padres return to relevance in the coming years.
- Chin Music Baseball sees striking similarities between the Mets and Indians, two World Series hopefuls.
- Bronx Bomber Blogger discusses the Yankees’ offseason in a podcast.
- The Point of Pittsburgh analyzes the Pirates’ young, in-house rotation options.
- Jays Journal writes that drafting and developing relievers could be the next competitive edge in Major League Baseball.
- BirdsWatcher tries to determine how much it would cost the Orioles to extend second baseman Jonathan Schoop.
- Notes from the Sally previews the 2017 Charleston Riverdogs, the Yankees’ South Atlantic League affiliate.
- Now On Deck and Rotisserie Duck present their mock Hall of Fame ballots.
- Fake Teams offers a two-round mock fantasy draft.
- Sports Talk Philly doesn’t expect Mike Trout, a New Jersey product who grew up a Phillies fan, to ever play for the club.
- Everything Bluebirds argues that the Blue Jays should be wary of trading with the Rockies.
- Outside Pitch MLB opines that the lack of a market for free agent catcher Matt Wieters could benefit the Nationals.
- Die Hard NYY regards free agent first baseman James Loney as a logical Yankees target.
- Call To The Pen previews a few positions that will be up for grabs for the Phillies during spring training.
- North Shore Nine revisits the top 10 moments of the Pirates’ 2016 season.
- Pinstriped Prospects credits the Yankees for the amount of undrafted players positively impacting their system.
- The Runner Sports looks back fondly at former major league right-hander Darryl Kile, who died in 2002.
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Cafardo’s Latest: Alvarez, Royals, Frazier, Bautista
Some rumblings from around baseball in the latest column from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe…
- The Royals could have interest in Pedro Alvarez. The free agent would essentially replace Kendrys Morales in Kansas City’s lineup, providing the Royals with some left-handed hitting thump from the DH spot. The Rays and Red Sox have both shown interest in Alvarez this offseason, though he has been most heavily linked to a return to Baltimore, perhaps as a possible fallback option for the Orioles if they can’t re-sign Mark Trumbo.
- A utilityman, a reliever and a low-cost starting pitcher are the remaining items on the Royals‘ shopping list. Cafardo suggests that Jason Hammel is a potential candidate for that rotation need, as the Royals “could wait out” a market that has seen around 10 teams (including the Marlins and Yankees) express some interest in the veteran hurler. Cafardo feels K.C. is probably done trading impending free agents after the Wade Davis deal, so Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas will all play one more season and then test the market next winter.
- The White Sox have received some “due diligence” calls about Todd Frazier, though Jose Abreu is receiving more attention. Abreu is controllable for three seasons while Frazier can be a free agent after 2017, so the differing levels of interest aren’t a surprise. Frazier hit a career-best 40 homers in his first season in Chicago, though his overall hitting numbers (.225/.302/.464, 102 wRC+) rated him as providing just slightly above-average offensive production. A .236 BABIP could’ve contributed to that downturn, not to mention the fact that it was Frazier’s first year in a new league, though it’s worth noting that Frazier has delivered just a .306 OBP over his last two seasons. Frazier turns 31 in February and MLBTR projects him to earn $13.5MM in 2017, his last season of arbitration eligibility. The Dodgers reportedly had interest in Frazier earlier this winter, though that was before L.A. re-signed Justin Turner as its regular third baseman.
- Cafardo doesn’t get why the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Orioles all seem to have reservations against signing Jose Bautista, arguing that Bautista can be a huge lineup upgrade for all three teams. In regards to Bautista’s injury-plagued 2016 season, Cafardo notes that the slugger still posted good numbers amidst his injuries “and has a chip on his shoulder” to re-establish himself after that down year.
AL Notes: Rajai, Gardner, Blue Jays, Dozier, Red Sox
Here’s the latest from around the American League…
- Money could prevent a reunion between Rajai Davis and the Indians, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes. The Tribe would like to bring back the veteran outfielder, though there isn’t any payroll space after Cleveland went above and beyond their financial comfort zone to land Edwin Encarnacion. Pluto thinks Davis could only come back to the Tribe if he fails to drum up enough interest from other teams, though that seems unlikely given his still-excellent baserunning. It’s worth noting that the Orioles are the only team known to have interest in Davis’ services this winter, so if his market continues to be quiet, it wouldn’t seem to be out of the question that Davis returns to Cleveland next year.
- In a recent piece about the Blue Jays and Jose Bautista, Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star cites Brett Gardner as one of multiple “trade avenues to explore” for the Jays before they would considering re-signing Bautista. The Yankees are known to have received some interest in Gardner this winter, and this is the first time Toronto has been linked to the veteran, though Griffin’s comment could imply more a due-diligence type of a check-in on the Blue Jays’ part rather than a solid interest. Gardner’s overall hitting numbers declined in 2016, though he still checks a lot of boxes for the Jays as a good on-base threat and leadoff man, a left-handed hitter and an excellent baserunner and defensive left fielder. The 33-year-old is owed $25MM in guaranteed salary over the next two seasons. A complicating factor, of course, could be the fact that the two teams are division rivals — the Blue Jays and Yankees haven’t collaborated on a trade since 2002.
- The Twins have some leverage in shopping Brian Dozier since, as the slugging second baseman is under contract for two more affordable years, Minnesota can simply keep Dozier in the fold if it can’t find an acceptable trade offer for him this winter. In his latest subscription-only column, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney warns that waiting to find a perfect deal for Dozier is something of a risk for the Twins, as Dozier’s value may never be higher than it is right now. Dozier is prone to extended slumps (he hit very poorly in the last two months of the 2015 season and in the first two months of the 2016 season) that could lower his trade value if he gets off to another slow start.
- Also from Olney, he opines that “it seems inevitable” that the Red Sox will be looking for (ironically) a Clay Buchholz-like pitcher in trade talks, if not necessarily re-acquiring Buchholz himself from the Phillies. Boston dealt Buchholz two weeks ago in order to get his salary off the books for luxury tax purposes and to alleviate a seeming rotation surplus. With Eduardo Rodriguez suffering another (apparently minor) injury to his surgically-repaired right knee and Steven Wright and Drew Pomeranz also carrying injury concerns from last year, there are certainly some questions about the last two spots in the Red Sox rotation.
3 Remaining Needs: American League East
To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.
Jeff Todd kicked off the series with a look at the NL West, and now we’ll move across the continent and across leagues to the AL East, starting with the division champion Red Sox and moving in order of last year’s standings. Here are three needs (of varying importance) for each team in the division:
- Third Base: Boston is hoping that a healthy and in-shape Pablo Sandoval can get back to his old Giants form, though that’s no small risk given Sandoval’s disastrous 2015-16 seasons. With Travis Shaw off to Milwaukee, the Sox are left with Brock Holt and Josh Rutledge as the primary third base backup options on the MLB roster. The Red Sox didn’t hesitate to bench Sandoval after he struggled in Spring Training last year, so if he has another rough spring, the Sox could start looking for a reliable everyday option at the hot corner.
- Bench Depth: While the Red Sox have several backup options on the 25-man roster or high minors, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford recently pointed out that the team is rather lacking in proven depth pieces, and might not be able to handle an injury to one or two regulars. Adding the likes of an Adam Rosales or Trevor Plouffe (names cited as Bradford as players of interest for the Sox) would help in this regard.
- Left-Handed Reliever: The club’s decision to tender a contract to Fernando Abad was something of a surprise, given how poorly Abad fared after joining the Red Sox last summer. Robbie Ross is the primary lefty in Boston’s bullpen and while it appears the Sox feel Abad will get back on track, it wouldn’t hurt to find another southpaw. Admittedly, this is a pretty borderline “need” on what is a pretty stacked Boston roster — the Sox could potentially find another lefty reliever internally in the form of Roenis Elias, Brian Johnson, Henry Owens or perhaps even one of Eduardo Rodriguez or Drew Pomeranz (if Steven Wright reclaims a rotation spot).
- Corner Outfield: With Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders both in free agency, the Jays are left with Melvin Upton Jr., Ezequiel Carrera, new acquisition Steve Pearce and Dalton Pompey as the candidates for both left and right field. You could argue that this counts as two needs, though the Blue Jays can juggle their internal options at one corner spot and focus on acquiring an everyday outfielder to handle the other position.
- Left-Handed Reliever: Southpaw bullpen depth has been a long-standing need for the Jays, who were short on lefties even before Brett Cecil signed with the Cardinals. The team has been linked to several left-handed relievers in free agency, though given the big contracts scored by Cecil and other lefties this winter, landing one of those notable arms won’t be cheap. Toronto has added left-handers T.J. House, Brett Oberholtzer and Jeff Beliveau to minor league deals this winter, though a more proven southpaw reliever would certainly be preferred.
- Right-Handed Reliever: No reason to stop at just southpaws, as the Jays’ relief corps is pretty thin behind Roberto Osuna, Jason Grilli and Joe Biagini, and it could get thinner if the Jays explore stretching Biagini out as rotation depth. The Jays are looking to duplicate their success with Biagini in another Rule 5 draft pick (Glenn Sparkman) and have a few new faces added in the minors to join their in-house bullpen options. As with the lefties, however, adding an experienced, reliable arm would go a long way to solidifying the bullpen.
- Right Field: With a Hyun Soo Kim/Joey Rickard platoon planned for left field, the Orioles have considered several free agents and trade targets for the right field slot. This doesn’t necessarily have to be an everyday option, as the O’s could form another platoon out of a new addition and one of Christian Walker, Aneury Tavarez, Adam Walker or Dariel Alvarez. With rookie Trey Mancini in line for a significant amount of DH at-bats, however, the Orioles may hesitate at allotting quite so much playing time to inexperienced youngsters.
- Designated Hitter: While the O’s are high on Mancini, it makes sense to add a veteran who can at least serve as a platoon partner should Mancini not be ready for prime time. Baltimore has been linked to free agents like Chris Carter or Pedro Alvarez for DH duties, though ideally, Mancini’s DH partner would also be able to handle playing a corner outfield role, so two needs could be addressed at once.
- Left-Handed Hitter: If the Orioles do add another bat, some left-handed pop would be preferable to add balance. Kim and Chris Davis are the only left-handed hitters projected to get regular playing time in the current Baltimore lineup.
- Starting Rotation: Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda and C.C. Sabathia aren’t the most rock-solid top three in the world, though they’re locked in atop the Yankees rotation. That leaves Luis Severino, Chad Green, Luis Cessa, Bryan Mitchell and perhaps Adam Warren battling for those last two spots. There isn’t a lot of experience in that group, and GM Brian Cashman has downplayed the idea of acquiring another starter (though the Yankees have also been linked to Jose Quintana in some trade rumors). As much as the Yankees want to see what they have in their young arms, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them add a low-cost, innings-eating veteran to compete for a rotation job in Spring Training.
- Left-Handed Reliever: Aroldis Chapman will close and Tommy Layne is a classic LOOGY, so since Joe Girardi likes to have as many bullpen options as possible, that leaves room for another southpaw. Chasen Shreve, Richard Bleier and Dietrich Enns are options on the 40-man roster, though since the Yankees have been connected to veterans like Boone Logan or Jerry Blevins on the rumor mill, they could be looking for more experience.
- First Base: As in the rotation, the Yankees are committed to young players at first, with Greg Bird penciled in as the starter and Tyler Austin getting some action against lefties (veteran Matt Holliday could also fill in, in a pinch). While Bird is reportedly recovering well from February 2016 surgery to repair a torn labrum, you have to consider a position a bit of a question mark when the first choice is a player returning from missing an entire season. It’s very unlikely the Yankees will make a move to address first base before Opening Day, though it could be an area to watch as the season develops if Bird, Austin or Holliday have injury or performance-related setbacks.
- Starting Rotation: While the Rays already have plenty of starters, what they really “need” is to decide if they’re going to be dealing one of them. Rumors have been flying all winter about teams looking to acquire one of Tampa’s starters, with Drew Smyly or Alex Cobb perhaps more likely to be on the move due to the Rays’ reportedly enormous asking price for Chris Archer or Jake Odorizzi. What the Rays get in return for one of their arms (if any are dealt) will go a long way towards filling one or both of the remaining needs on this list.
- Right-Handed Hitter: Left fielder Corey Dickerson and first baseman Brad Miller are both left-handed bats who struggle against southpaws, so the Rays would be aided by adding a player who can handle one (or both) positions and add some thump from the right side of the plate.
- Designated Hitter: This would also be a natural spot for a right-handed bat, as switch-hitter Nick Franklin was only effective against righty pitching last season in part-time action. A regular DH isn’t necessary since the Rays would like to keep this position open for lineup flexibility — Wilson Ramos will likely require some DH time in the wake of knee surgery, while neither Dickerson or Miller have much defensive value — but the promise of DH at-bats could help the Rays entice a veteran hitter who might be otherwise unenthusiastic about playing on Tropicana Field’s artificial surface.
5 Key Stories: 12/24/16 – 12/30/16
The biggest stories on MLBTR from the past week:
Blue Jays talking with Jose Bautista. The slugger’s rather unusual spin through free agency could lead him back to where he started, as Bautista has been in “active contract discussions” with the Jays about a return. Bautista is apparently willing to discuss accepting a one-year deal from the Jays or other teams, though that one-year pact would still need to pay him beyond the $17.2MM value of the qualifying offer.
Mike Napoli‘s market heats up. The free agent first baseman has seen his market pick up in recent days, with the Rangers perhaps in the driver’s seat. Texas is discussing a two-year contract with Napoli, though some other teams (reportedly the A’s and Orioles) are still in the mix.
Twins asking for final trade bids on Brian Dozier. After a winter full of trade rumors about the slugging second baseman, Minnesota is reportedly looking to wrap up the process, asking interested teams to submit their best and final offers for Dozier’s services. The Dodgers have long been seen as Dozier’s most ardent pursuers; the Braves and Giants have also been involved in talks, while the Nationals and Cardinals both have rather limited interest.
More trade buzz about Jose Quintana. Speculation about the left-hander’s future has become even more intense since the White Sox dealt Chris Sale. Conflicting reports this week suggested the Yankees may or may not be pursuing a trade for both Quintana and David Robertson, and New York also reportedly discussed a three-team deal with the White Sox and Pirates (another club interested in Quintana’s services).
Rockies linked to Greg Holland. Colorado is the latest team to show interest in the former Royals closer, with one report suggesting that the Rockies offered Holland a multi-year contract. Rockies GM Jeff Bridich didn’t comment on the reported offer, though he did acknowledge that his club “checked in” on Holland. Including the Rockies, that makes a whopping 18 different teams who have shown some degree of interest in Holland as he makes his return from Tommy John surgery.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images