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Bryce Harper

NL East Notes: Mets, Maldonado, Realmuto, Harper

By Mark Polishuk | December 2, 2018 at 10:15pm CDT

Some rumblings from around the NL East…

  • The Mets were linked to Martin Maldonado in early November, though talks “haven’t materialized” as of yet between the team and Maldonado’s camp, the New York Post’s Mike Puma writes.  Catcher remains a position of need for the Mets, though they’ve already seen one trade target (Yan Gomes) get dealt to a division rival in Washington, while their impending trade of some top prospects in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal could mean New York doesn’t have the minor league depth to acquire J.T. Realmuto from the Marlins.  Puma wonders if this means the Mets could circle back to Yasmani Grandal, another player that drew some early interest from the Amazins as the free agent market opened.
  • In regards to Realmuto, the Mets and Phillies may not be realistic contenders for the catcher’s services, as the New York Post’s Joel Sherman hears from an official with the Nationals or Braves that “Miami is not trading him in the division.”  It had previously been surmised that the Marlins’ huge asking price in a Realmuto trade was what turned D.C. and Atlanta to alternate catching solutions (i.e. Gomes, Kurt Suzuki, and Brian McCann), though it stands to reason that the Marlins could’ve wanted a particularly big premium in order to send Realmuto elsewhere in the NL West.
  • Also from Sherman’s piece, he is “surprised how many executives and agents I speak to feel” Bryce Harper will re-sign with the Nationals and Manny Machado will sign with the Phillies.  The Machado/Philadelphia connection is no surprise (45.8% of readers in the MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest chose Machado to the Phillies), though there has much less speculation about the possibility of Harper staying put.  The general consensus has been that the Nats would go forward with an outfield mix of Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, and Victor Robles, and that they would recoup the draft pick compensation owed to them via the qualifying offer once Harper signed elsewhere.  On the flip side, only a few teams would fit as potential candidates for Harper given his $400+ asking price, and the Nats do have a long history of handing out big money to Scott Boras clients.
  • The Mets have longtime Yankees minor league pitching coach Scott Aldred on their list of bullpen coach candidates, according to Puma (Twitter link).  Aldred is currently working a roving pitching coordinator in the Yankees’ farm system after spending the previous decade as a pitching coach at multiple minor league levels, including a lengthy stint at Triple-A.
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Miami Marlins New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Washington Nationals Bryce Harper J.T. Realmuto Martin Maldonado

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Free Agent Rumblings: Jones, Miller, Phillies, Eovaldi

By Mark Polishuk | November 25, 2018 at 7:29pm CDT

Adam Jones hopes to keep playing “at least four or five more years,” the veteran outfielder told reporters (including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) this weekend at his #StayHungry Purple Tailgate charity event in Baltimore.  Jones turned 33 last August and is coming off a season that saw him hit .281/.313/.419 with 15 homers over 613 plate appearances for the Orioles, making for his lowest home run and slugging average totals since 2008, and below-average run production overall (98 wRC+).  Between his age and the offensive dropoff, Jones may face a difficult market as he test free agency for the first time in his 13-year career, though he is realistic about his prospects.  “It’s like [being] the senior that some people want that not everybody wants, as opposed to the sophomore that everybody wants.  I take it back when I was in high school and getting flirted with a little bit,” Jones said.  “But at the same time, I’ve got no stress. The Orioles have been good to me financially over my career. I just know that I have a lot to offer someone else and I have a lot of gas in the tank.”

A reunion with the Orioles doesn’t appear to be in the cards for now, as Jones said that he hadn’t heard from the team since the season ended.  This isn’t necessarily unusual, as Baltimore only just installed Mike Elias as its new general manager in mid-November, and Elias could have interest in re-signing a team legend to act as an on-field mentor through the Orioles’ rebuilding phase.  Still, Jones’ tribute-filled final game of 2018 campaign (and his own comments following the team) certainly seemed to hint that the two sides would be parting ways.

Here’s more on some other free agents around the game….

  • The Phillies are the latest team to express “active interest” in southpaw Andrew Miller, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports (Twitter link).  The previously-reported Cardinals and Mets are also among the teams looking at Miller, though the left-hander isn’t yet close to signing with anyone.  Injuries limited Miller to just 34 innings in 2018, and likely contributed to his overall middling numbers (at least in comparison to his outstanding performance from 2014-17).  Still, with such a track record, it isn’t surprising that Miller is getting lots of attention from a wide range of teams.  Philadelphia is a natural suitor, as the Phils have loads of money to spend this winter and could want more of a veteran late-game presence to complement star rookie Seranthony Dominguez.
  • Bryce Harper’s name has naturally been attached to the Phillies as they seemingly prepare to embark on a spending spree, to the point that “it’s amazing how many people inside this sport almost assume that the Phillies will be the highest bidder in this auction” for Harper, The Athletic’s Jayson Stark writes (subscription required).  Philadelphia has enough financial resources and available future payroll space to pursue anyone in the free agent market…or maybe even in future markets, as Stark speculates on the idea of Mike Trout and Harper both playing in the Phillies outfield in 2021.  Trout still has two years left on his Angels contract, of course, and thus it’s far too early to guess at what might happen down the road, especially since the Angels have every intention of keeping their superstar.  (“I would bet that Arte would spend $10 billion not to have to read the sentence: ’Arte Moreno was the owner who let Mike Trout walk away,’ ” one executive joked to Stark.)  Still, the Phillies’ financial might and their close proximity to Trout’s hometown of Millville, New Jersey make them seem like a logical candidate should Trout ever test the open market.
  • Nathan Eovaldi is one of the most sought-after names on the free agent starting pitching market, yet “there is a team or two toying with trying to sign him as a reliever,” the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo writes.  Eovaldi’s superb results out of the Red Sox bullpen during their World Series run has surely contributed to this idea, and with two Tommy John surgeries to his name, a case could be made that relief work would be less stressful on Eovaldi’s arm.  This being said, it would be incredibly surprising to see Eovaldi sign on as a reliever after so strongly re-establishing his credentials as a starting pitcher last season.
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Baltimore Orioles Philadelphia Phillies Adam Jones Andrew Miller Bryce Harper Mike Trout Nathan Eovaldi

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Yankees Notes: Ottavino, Kikuchi, Harper

By Connor Byrne | November 24, 2018 at 8:02pm CDT

A few notes from the Bronx…

  • With crucial bullpen pieces David Robertson and Zach Britton among their free agents, the Yankees are planning to add two relievers this offseason, according to general manager Brian Cashman (via Joel Sherman of the New York Post). One of those pickups may be free-agent right-hander Adam Ottavino, whom the Yankees are interested in, Sherman reports. The 33-year-old Ottavino – a New York City native – just put up a career season in Colorado, where he logged a 2.43 ERA/2.74 FIP with 12.98 K/9 and 4.17 BB/9 across 77 2/3 innings. On the heels of his marvelous 2018 campaign, MLBTR predicts Ottavino will join the Yankees on a three-year, $30MM contract this offseason.
  • The Yankees have discussed signing Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, team owner Hal Steinbrenner revealed earlier this month (per David Lennon of Newsday). “I saw film on him during the pro scouting meetings,” Steinbrenner said. “We talked about that individual. We’ve always been paying attention to that area of the world — some unbelievably great players came out of there. So it won’t be any different this year.” Steinbrenner’s comments came before the Yankees acquired fellow lefty James Paxton from the Mariners this past Monday, which in theory could lessen the need for Kikuchi. However, the Yankees still seem destined to get at least one more high-end starter this offseason, and they’ve never been shy about pursuing hyped Japanese talent, evidenced by past signings such as Hideki Irabu, Hideki Matsui, Kei Igawa and Masahiro Tanaka. While the 27-year-old Kikuchi’s not yet available to major league clubs, that will change when the Seibu Lions – his team in Nippon Professional Baseball – post him in early December.
  • New York is loaded in the outfield, where it boasts Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier and Jacoby Ellsbury. Free-agent outfielder Bryce Harper seems like more of a luxury than a need, then, though there has been speculation about the Yankees signing the superstar to play first base, where their top holdover, Luke Voit, dominated late in 2018 but doesn’t carry an extensive major league track record. Earlier this week, Cashman discussed the possibility of signing Harper to line up at first, telling the YES Network (via Mike Rosenstein of NJ.com): “People have talked about Bryce Harper being able to play first base, I don’t know if he can or can’t. I know he’s very athletic, but that’s not necessarily a bet I would recommend placing with the amount of money he’s expected to get.” Although Cashman doesn’t seem enthusiastic about Harper as a first base option, the executive added that he’s “not ruling anything out.”
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New York Yankees Adam Ottavino Bryce Harper Yusei Kikuchi

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Latest On Manny Machado & Bryce Harper

By Jeff Todd | November 21, 2018 at 8:20am CDT

As Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes, in a general encapsulation of the state of play in the current free agent market, there’s still not much clarity regarding superstars Manny Machado and Bryce Harper. Perhaps, as Kepner suggests, with the two belles of the ball still waiting to find a dance partner, the rest of the participants are still milling about, afraid to commit.

Of course, the market is also operating in the shadow of last winter’s dud of a dance, so the factors influencing the secondary tiers of free agency could reflect broader changes mostly unrelated to Machado and Harper. Whether the matchmaking process will be as slow as it was last year remains to be seen; the more interesting question, though, is simply whether there’ll be more money out there for the good-but-not-great players available. As for Machado and Harper, there’s every reason to believe they’ll be paid handsomely.

It’s interesting, though perhaps not surprising, that the conversation thus far has mostly focused on Harper. As Kepner notes, Harper’s gunslinging agent Scott Boras is selling Harper to suitors as an “iconic” and uniquely marketable player. The ever-visible Boras is, of course, also making that same pitch in very public fashion to and through the media. Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano, has negotiated some monster deals of his own, so he’s no amateur. Clearly, though, he is not pursuing the sort of media strategy that Boras is.

The differences in the agents’ approaches are perhaps in some part reflections of genuine personality differences in their respective clients. While he hardly carries any kind of reputation for off-field antics, Harper seems to be enjoying his time in the spotlight, playfully dropping hints on social media and an assuredly unscripted TMZ spot. (Did you know: Harper’s dog is still named Wrigley and he quite likes deep dish!)

Machado, meanwhile, has been more or less off the radar entirely — leaving many to hem and haw over the generally distasteful impression he left during the World Series. In an interview published this morning by MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, Machado has perhaps launched his effort at shifting the narrative somewhat. The 26-year-old casts himself as a humble, hard-working player who shows up every day and cares about winning — which, generally, was his reputation both in and out of baseball circles prior to the recent shift.

Of course, the change in public perception — one that was likely not fully embraced by those that have known him in person for years — was a self-inflicted wound caused by Machado’s cringeworthy comments on hustling as well as some highly questionable on-field actions. Machado says he accepts the blame for how his words came across, but explains: “I was trying to talk about how I’m not the guy who is eye wash. There’s a difference between fake hustle for show and being someone who tries hard to win. I’ve always been the guy who does whatever he can to win for his team.”

Machado unsurprisingly declines to divulge any details about his thinking on an ultimate destination. Generally, he suggests to Feinsand that he’s open to any and all suitors. And he says he won’t do anything to make the process a more-publicized one than it already promises to be. “When the time comes,” Machado says, “there will probably be a few of the teams that I will sit down with in person, but it’s not something I plan on being very public about.” There’s plenty more to digest from his chat with Feinsand, which is a must-read piece, though Machado surely will still have plenty to answer to when he sits down with team owners who are considering committing hundreds of millions of dollars to employ him.

Generally, the final dollar tallies these two excellent young players will command will be the result of an auction process, the course of which will be determined by the quantity and intensity of team owners waving bidding paddles from the gallery. We don’t yet have a firm sense of the field of Machado bidders, but the rough contours of Harper’s market are beginning to emerge. Notably, it seems he may have two more interesting potential suitors.

It won’t surprise anyone to hear the Cardinals and Braves mentioned as possibilities, as they’ve both long been discussed as teams to keep an eye on. But it’s still notable to see some increasing evidence of real involvement. The owner of the St. Louis franchise, Bill DeWitt III, tells Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (Twitter link) that a move for a top-tier free agent is on the table — though he doesn’t necessarily do so in terms that suggest it’s the likeliest outcome. “We could do it, sure,” says DeWitt. “It’s about (considering) putting all our eggs in one basket. We have the payroll room.” 

As for the Atlanta organization, which is owned by a corporate entity (Liberty Media) that is theoretically less likely to be swayed by emotion, it remains a bit difficult to gauge the true level of interest. But David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that he’s getting signs the Braves will be “players in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes.” Whether or not the club will turn into a front-runner, let alone land Harper, is obviously still unclear. But it seems fair to presume that the involvement of multiple, serious suitors increases the likelihood that Boras (or, for Machado, Lozano) will be able to convince one team to enter a new contract stratosphere of the kind MLBTR predicted in its ranking of the top fifty free agents.

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Atlanta Braves St. Louis Cardinals Bryce Harper Manny Machado

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MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For Top 10 Free Agents

By Tim Dierkes | November 19, 2018 at 2:24pm CDT

MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed last night.  6,845 people entered the contest.  Here’s where our readers think each of the top 10 free agents is going.

1.  Bryce Harper – Phillies (34.0%), Dodgers (13.1%), Nationals (10.8%), Giants (9.8%), Cubs (8.5%), Cardinals (7.9%), White Sox (6.0%), Yankees (4.2%), Braves (1.4%), Astros (1.4%), Angels (1.1%)

2.  Manny Machado – Phillies (45.8%), Yankees (36.5%), White Sox (5.0%), Dodgers (4.0%), Cardinals (1.9%), Mets (1.5%), Cubs (1.3%)

3.  Patrick Corbin – Yankees (74.8%), Phillies (3.1%), Astros (3.0%), Brewers (2.5%), Angels (2.4%), Braves (2.1%), Cardinals (1.4%), Nationals (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.4%), Cubs (1.2%), Giants (1.1%)

4.  Dallas Keuchel – Astros (16.4%), Angels (13.8%), Nationals (13.5%), Brewers (9.9%), Yankees (8.2%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (6.0%), Cardinals (4.1%), Reds (3.1%), Dodgers (2.1%), Cubs (2.1%), Giants (2.0%), Padres (1.9%), Rangers (1.5%), White Sox (1.4%), Twins (1.2%), Mariners (1.2%), Athletics (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%)

5.  Craig Kimbrel – Braves (28.8%), Red Sox (25.4%), Cardinals (18.1%), Phillies (8.4%), Cubs (3.6%), Nationals (3.1%), Mets (2.6%), Astros (2.2%), Dodgers (1.5%), Angels (1.2%), Indians (1.2%)

6.  Yasmani Grandal – Nationals (21.6%), Astros (15.3%), Dodgers (14.4%), Mets (11.3%), Braves (7.8%), Angels (3.4%), Brewers (3.0%), Phillies (2.7%), Mariners (2.6%), Rockies (2.5%), Red Sox (2.5%), Athletics (1.5%), Rangers (1.4%), Diamondbacks (1.3%)

7.  Nathan Eovaldi – Red Sox (51.5%), Brewers (5.6%), Astros (4.3%), Yankees (4.0%), Angels (3.6%), Padres (3.2%), Phillies (3.0%), Braves (2.8%), Dodgers (2.4%), Reds (2.3%), Nationals (2.1%), Cubs (2.0%), Giants (2.0%), Cardinals (1.6%), White Sox (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Twins (1.1%), Athletics (1.0%)

8.  A.J. Pollock – Giants (22.9%), Indians (9.2%), Diamondbacks (9.0%), White Sox (6.7%), Phillies (6.2%), Braves (5.7%), Mets (5.4%), Cardinals (5.0%), Nationals (4.6%), Cubs (3.4%), Rockies (3.4%), Mariners (2.5%), Athletics (1.7%), Dodgers (1.6%), Angels (1.6%), Astros (1.5%), Padres (1.5%), Blue Jays (1.4%), Rangers (1.3%), Brewers (1.1%)

9.  J.A. Happ – Yankees (30.9%), Blue Jays (9.2%), Angels (8.2%), Brewers (6.5%), Phillies (4.7%), Astros (4.4%), Nationals (3.7%), Twins (3.1%), Athletics (3.1%), Braves (2.6%), Cubs (2.5%), White Sox (2.4%), Cardinals (2.3%), Reds (2.2%), Giants (1.7%), Mariners (1.7%), Dodgers (1.5%), Padres (1.2%), Diamondbacks (1.2%), Red Sox (1.1%), Rangers (1.0%), Indians (1.0%)

10.  Michael Brantley – Braves (30.8%), Indians (10.1%), Giants (9.5%), Phillies (4.9%), Cardinals (4.5%), White Sox (4.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Cubs (3.0%), Mariners (2.9%), Astros (2.8%), Diamondbacks (2.6%), Rockies (2.4%), Athletics (2.3%), Mets (2.3%), Blue Jays (1.9%), Angels (1.4%), Twins (1.4%), Rangers (1.2%), Padres (1.1%), Rays (1.0%), Dodgers (1.0%)

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Uncategorized A.J. Pollock Bryce Harper Craig Kimbrel Dallas Keuchel J.A. Happ Manny Machado Michael Brantley Nathan Eovaldi Patrick Corbin Yasmani Grandal

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Poll: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado And The Phillies

By Connor Byrne | November 18, 2018 at 2:14pm CDT

On several occasions over the past decade, the Phillies have shown a willingness to spend among the league’s elite. However, because the Phillies were recently amid a full-fledged rebuild, the big-market club took major steps backward in the spending department. Last year, with Philadelphia aiming to make a sizable leap in the standings, the team began with a modest $95MM-plus in commitments. Two expensive signings from last offseason – right-hander Jake Arrieta (three years, $75MM) and first baseman Carlos Santana (three years, $60MM) –  easily served as the Phillies’ priciest players in 2018, and the duo did help the team make legitimate progress. The Phillies notched their best record since 2012 (80-82), totaling 14 more wins than they amassed in 2017, but they finished under .500 for the sixth consecutive season and extended their playoff drought to seven years.

Santana is now on the block, though his potential exit isn’t a sign that the Phillies are looking to cut costs. Quite the contrary, actually, as owner John Middleton has publicly declared that the Phillies won’t be bashful when it comes to doling out money. In fact, while discussing the Phillies’ offseason plans on Friday, Middleton proclaimed  that “we’re going into this expecting to spend money. And maybe even be a little bit stupid about it. We just prefer not to be completely stupid.”

Even before Middleton made it known that Philadelphia’s looking to go big-game hunting, expectations were that the franchise would spend aggressively this winter. After all, the open market now features two of the most enticing free agents ever in outfielder Bryce Harper and infielder Manny Machado. Combining the Phillies’ spending capabilities with the lack of guaranteed money on their books beyond 2020, pursuits of both Harper and Machado have seemed like foregone conclusions. Both players stand a strong chance of surpassing the richest contract in baseball history – the 13-year, $325MM extension outfielder Giancarlo Stanton signed with the Marlins in 2014 – and the Phillies are among the teams truly capable of spending that type of cash. What’s more, if any one organization is going to sign both Harper and Machado, the Phillies are on a very short list of realistic possibilities.

The need for Harper, Machado or both in Philadelphia is obvious, as either player would clearly boost a position player group which ranked 22nd in runs and 23rd in fWAR in 2018. The Phillies’ 48 hitters accounted for 12.4 fWAR, while Machado (6.2) and Harper (3.5) combined for 9.7 by themselves. The two 26-year-olds have been among the game’s most feared hitters throughout their decorated careers, though Machado has also provided plenty of value as a third baseman. The former Oriole and Dodger would do the same in Philadelphia, which got so-so production at the hot corner from Maikel Franco, current free agent Asdrubal Cabrera and J.P. Crawford, among others, in 2018. Franco’s now penciled in as the Phillies’ 2019 starter at third, but that spot’s ripe for an upgrade.

Philadelphia is seemingly even worse off at shortstop, Machado’s preferred position and where he spent the majority of last season. Machado didn’t have a banner year defensively, but he did place first among shortstops in wRC+ (141) and second in both home runs (38) and fWAR. The Phillies, on the other hand, received a microscopic 0.7 fWAR from shortstops Scott Kingery, Crawford, Cabrera and Pedro Florimon, and their combined wRC+ (74) was barely more than half of Machado’s.

Fortunately for the Phillies, their 2018 outfield wasn’t as toothless as the left side of their infield. That doesn’t mean it’s an area of strength, however. Aside from slugger Rhys Hoskins, who overcame horrific defense to log a respectable fWAR (2.9), the Phillies got mediocre or worse overall production from outfield regulars Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Roman Quinn and Aaron Altherr. Going forward, Hoskins may shift to first base, which explains the team’s willingness to trade Santana and could increase the need for Harper or another high-end outfielder. Harper, like Hoskins, had a year to forget in the field. Defensive ineptitude has hardly been the norm for Harper since he debuted in 2012, though, and he made up for it to an extent by notching another quality year at the plate.

Signing Harper would improve the Phillies’ near-term chances of returning to contention, and there’s an added bonus: Landing him would be a blow to the division-rival Nationals, Harper’s only team to date. The Nats, the reigning NL East champion Braves and the Mets will each push for supremacy in the division next season, but the Phillies could wind up as the favorites if general manager Matt Klentak uses Middleton’s money effectively this winter. While there are plenty of avenues Klentak could explore that don’t involve Harper or Machado, speculation about those two heading to Philadelphia will persist until they officially come off the market.

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Philadelphia Phillies Bryce Harper Manny Machado

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Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 5 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

By Tim Dierkes | November 15, 2018 at 1:22pm CDT

Five different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Six of the seven players turned down the one-year, $17.9MM offer.  Here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.

Astros

The Astros made a qualifying offer to Dallas Keuchel.  The Astros were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contract Keuchel signs, the Astros will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.

Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks made qualifying offers to Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock.  The D’Backs were a revenue sharing recipient. If Corbin or Pollock signs for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the D’Backs get draft pick compensation after the first round. If one of the players signs for less than $50MM, the Diamondbacks get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. Corbin is a near-lock to sign for more than $50MM, while Pollock is a borderline case.  Of the six qualified free agents, the $50MM contract size threshold only matters in the cases of Corbin and Pollock.

Dodgers

The Dodgers made a qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal (Hyun-Jin Ryu already accepted his). Like the Astros, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Grandal signs for, the Dodgers will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.

Nationals

The Nationals made a qualifying offer to Bryce Harper, and the Nats were a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, the Nationals will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Harper signs.

Red Sox

The Red Sox made a qualifying offer to Craig Kimbrel, and the Sox were a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, the Red Sox will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Kimbrel signs.

The Nationals and Red Sox stand to gain fairly unimpressive draft picks, likely somewhere in the 140s.  The Astros and Dodgers should get picks in the 80s.  The D’Backs should get a pick in the 30s for Corbin.  Pollock could land them a pick in the 30s or the 80s depending on whether he gets $50MM.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals Washington Nationals A.J. Pollock Bryce Harper Craig Kimbrel Dallas Keuchel Patrick Corbin Yasmani Grandal

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Six Players Decline Qualifying Offers

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2018 at 3:32pm CDT

The seven free agents who were issued qualifying offers by their former teams must decide by 4pm CT today whether or not to accept.  You can get the full rundown of how the qualifying offer system works here, but in brief — if a player takes the offer, they will return to their team on a one-year, $17.9MM contract for the 2019 season and can never again be issued a QO in any future trips to the free agent market.  If a player rejects the offer, their former team will receive a compensatory draft pick should another club sign the player.  (The signing team will also have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some funds from their international signing bonus pool.)

Most free agents reject the QO in search of a richer, more long-term contract, and this is expected to be the case for most (though not all) of this year’s qualifying offer class.  The MLB Player’s Association has now announced all of these decisions, so they’re all official:

  • A.J. Pollock will enter free agency after turning down the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred.  He’ll be the top center fielder available and should draw interest from a fair number of teams, though his market demand is not yet clear.
  • Bryce Harper declined the Nationals’ qualifying offer, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). That’s utterly unsurprising, as the superstar is lining up nine-figure offers as we speak.
  • Craig Kimbrel is heading to the market rather than taking the one-year pact to stay with the Red Sox, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to tweet. The veteran closer is expected to command a much larger and lengthier contract in free agency.
  • Patrick Corbin won’t be accepting the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, as per Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  No surprises with this decision, as Corbin is set to receive the biggest contract of any free agent pitcher this winter.
  • Yasmani Grandal won’t accept the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (via Twitter).  Even in the wake of another mediocre postseason performance, there was little doubt Grandal would turn down the QO, as he projects to earn a strong contract as the best catcher in the free agent market.
  • Dallas Keuchel has rejected the Astros’ qualifying offer, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  The ground-ball specialist and 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner will hit the open market, and it remains to be seen if a return to Houston could be in the cards.  The Astros could also lose Charlie Morton in free agency, and Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu has accepted the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, as we explored in detail earlier today.  Ryu becomes the sixth player to ever accept a QO, out of the 80 free agents who have been offered the deal over the last seven offseasons.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Transactions Washington Nationals A.J. Pollock Bryce Harper Craig Kimbrel Dallas Keuchel Hyun-Jin Ryu Patrick Corbin Yasmani Grandal

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Quick Hits: Castellanos, Astros, deGrom, Riggleman, Free Agents

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2018 at 2:18pm CDT

The Astros made an offer to the Tigers for right fielder Nick Castellanos prior to last July’s trade deadline, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter).  Houston was known to be aggressively pursuing a big outfield bat last summer, even to the point of almost completing a trade with the Nationals for Bryce Harper, and also inquiring about Tommy Pham (then with the Cardinals) and White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia.  Fenech suggests that Castellanos could again be a target for the Astros this offseason, and he explores in a longer piece for the Detroit Free Press that it is becoming increasingly likely that the Tigers will trade Castellanos due to a lack of extension talks between the two sides.

Castellanos would help the Astros as either a corner outfielder or, perhaps more likely, as a DH given Castellanos’ defensive limitations and the fact that incumbent Houston designated hitter Evan Gattis is hitting free agency.  Since Castellanos is only controlled through the 2019 season, he would give the Astros a short-term boost in their quest for another World Series while also not serving as a long-term block to youngsters Tyler White, Kyle Tucker, and J.D. Davis.

More from around baseball…

  • Now that Brodie Van Wagenen has gone from being Jacob deGrom’s agent to his employer as the Mets’ new GM, the transition has been “still a little confusing for me, I guess,” deGrom admitted to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo.  DeGrom (and Van Wagenen’s other clients at CAA) were kept updated throughout Van Wagenen’s negotiations about joining the Mets just so nobody felt caught off-guard by the former agent’s surprising career change, and deGrom said that “I’ve had conversations with him since [the hiring], and they’ve been good.”  There haven’t yet been any talks about a contract extension between deGrom and the Mets, though most teams usually wait until later in the offseason to discuss in-house contracts.  For his part, deGrom reiterated that he enjoys playing for the Mets and would be open to talking about a long-term deal.  “If that was something that they wanted to do, and me and [my wife] Stacey felt like it was the right move for us, then we’d be willing to definitely explore that,” deGrom said.  The ace right-hander is controlled via arbitration through the 2020 season, and it will be particularly interesting to see how extension talks develop, given deGrom and Van Wagenen’s shared history.
  • In other Mets news, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman recently tweeted that Jim Riggleman will interview for the team’s open bench coach position sometime this week.  Riggleman served as the Reds’ interim manager for much of the 2018 season, and he would add over three decades of coaching and managerial experience to Mickey Callaway’s staff.  SNY TV’s Andy Martino offers the alternative suggestion that the Mets should consider former Phillies manager Pete Mackanin as bench coach, arguing that Mackanin is more well-versed in how to apply modern analytics to in-game management.
  • Manny Machado is the third-greatest player to ever hit free agency following his age-27 season or sooner, as calculated by The Athletic’s Cliff Corcoran (subscription required) in a 13-player ranking.  Bryce Harper, interestingly, ranks just 11th on the list.  The players were compiled in regards to what they had achieved before hitting the open market, so it’s worth noting that both Machado and Harper (who are both only 26 years old now) had a bit less seasoning than some of the slightly older names on the list.  Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds are the only names ahead of Machado on this list dotted with several all-time greats, though as with any free agent, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.  Case in point, the fourth-best player on Corcoran’s ranking is Jason Heyward, who has been a significant disappointment since signing an eight-year, $184MM deal to join the Cubs.
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Detroit Tigers Houston Astros New York Mets Bryce Harper Jacob deGrom Jim Riggleman Manny Machado Nick Castellanos

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Trade Deadline Retrospective: Harper, Astros, Garcia, Nats, Puig

By Ty Bradley | November 10, 2018 at 4:55pm CDT

Baseball fans everywhere were stripped of high-level trade deadline intrigue last season, as Ken Rosenthal details in a stunning report for The Athletic, when a trade that would have sent Bryce Harper to the Astros in exchange for a trio of prospects was nixed by Washington’s ownership group.  The trade, said to have been agreed upon a day before the July 31 deadline, would have sent 2017 first-rounder J.B. Bukauskas to the Nats, as well as two other prospects, one of which was reportedly catcher Garrett Stubbs.  Though Bukauskas faces questions about a third pitch, which could relegate him to eventual relief duty, and Stubbs has cooled after a blistering 2016 performance for Double-A Corpus Christi, the package was surely superior in value to the compensatory pick the Nationals will receive should Harper depart in free agency, which, as Rosenthal notes, will come after the fourth round in next year’s draft, by virtue of the club exceeding the luxury tax total in 2018.  Houston, which received middling corner-outfield production from Josh Reddick and Marwin Gonzalez last season, would certainly have benefitted from Harper’s presence in a lineup diminished by injuries to Carlos Correa and a substandard season from George Springer, though the departing asset cost would’ve assuredly been hefty for only two months of the 25-year-old superstar.

  • Though no official reason was offered for the disapproval, Rosenthal speculates the Nationals owners may have been worried about damaging their relationship with Harper in the offseason to come. The club, after all, did offer Harper a reported $300MM over ten years on the last day of the 2018 season, and figures to further its aggression in efforts to sign the generational talent. During the August waiver period, the club also shot down a Dodger effort to acquire Harper, according to a report from the Los Angeles Times. It appears this offer, which reportedly included outfielder Yasiel Puig at its center, was nixed at the front office level, though it’s certainly plausible that previous ownership mandates were a significant factor in the team’s eventual refusal to depart with the star. Puig, certainly, would have been an intriguing return for just over a month’s use of Harper – the 27-year-old has had his share of on-field dustups, to be sure, but has remained a force at the plate: in an odd reverse split, the polarizing Cuban has put up a 142 wRC+ against right-handed pitching the last two seasons, good for 12th among qualifiers in baseball during that span, and is under team control through the 2019 season.
  • After being stonewalled in their Harper pursuit, sources told Rosenthal that the Astros pivoted their attention (to, obviously, no avail) in the final hours to White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia, dangling right-handed pitching prospect Francis Martes, whose damaged right elbow was apparently of no concern to the Southsiders.  Garcia, who’s been around replacement-level in five of his six major league seasons thus far, seemed an odd target for an Astro club not much in need of a right-handed boost – the 27-year-old, after all, posted a minuscule 1.4% BB rate in the season’s first half, and again sunk to a level of below-league-average production by the time his season ended in knee surgery in mid-September.
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Houston Astros Washington Nationals Avisail Garcia Bryce Harper Yasiel Puig

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