Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Cody Bellinger

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: All Eyes on the Angels, Cardinals Trade Options and Buyers or Sellers

By | at

The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Do you feel that the Yankees should be sellers? (17:25)
  • If the Rangers were to acquire Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger from the Cubs, would that make them the favorite in American League? (21:30)
  • What are the Blue Jays going to target at the deadline? (24:00)

Check out our past episodes!

Looking For A Match In A Cody Bellinger Trade

By | at

Cody Bellinger is probably the top rental hitter who’ll be traded in the next two weeks. The Cubs have gotten excellent production for their $17.5MM rebound flier on the former MVP.

Bellinger went into Wednesday night’s action carrying a .308/.365/.523 batting line over 266 plate appearances. That’s well shy of his career-best 2019 season but right in line with his next-best work as a Dodger. By measure of wRC+, it’s the third-strongest rate production of his career and not far off his .267/.351/.581 rookie showing that ranks as his second-best season.

A left knee contusion cost him around a month between May and June. Since being reinstated from the injured list, Bellinger is raking at a .366/.408/.570 clip. The Cubs eased him back in defensively at first base but have kicked him out to his customary center field spot this month.

Bellinger isn’t hitting for the kind of power he once did, but he has seemingly made a concerted effort to get more balls in play. After striking out around 27% of the time between 2021-22, he’s going down on strikes at just a 17.7% clip this season. Last winter’s Brandon Nimmo contract illustrated how much value the league places on the handful of above-average defensive center fielders who can hit. For the first time in three seasons, Bellinger again seems to fall into that category.

The Cubs should and very likely will trade him. They’re six games under .500. Bellinger is sure to decline his end of a mutual option for next season, so he’s an impending free agent. The demand for his services this summer figures to outweigh the value of the draft pick they’d receive if he declines a qualifying offer and walks in free agency.

If Bellinger indeed changes uniforms in the next couple weeks, let’s identify some fits (teams listed alphabetically within tiers):

Top Suitors

Astros

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has already linked the Astros to Bellinger. Houston general manager Dana Brown is on record about his desire to add a left-handed bat to a very righty-centric lineup. Even with Kyle Tucker entrenched in right field and Chas McCormick playing very well in center, there’s enough uncertainty for Bellinger to be a fit.

Righty-swinging Corey Julks has gotten the bulk of the playing time in left field. He’s on a hot streak and has a decent .279/.326/.402 showing on the year, but he’s not the kind of impact bat who’d firmly rule Houston out on upgrades. It’s tough to know what to expect from Michael Brantley given his repeated shoulder setbacks. Acquiring Bellinger while pushing McCormick to left field and Julks to the bench would balance the lineup from a handedness perspective and add some overall depth to an offense that has been closer to average than expected.

Giants

San Francisco president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi is familiar with Bellinger from their time in L.A. The Giants made a run at him in free agency last winter. They didn’t get him then, but the need is just as acute now. San Francisco has used rookie Luis Matos as its top center fielder over the past month. The 21-year-old is a very promising prospect but has started his MLB career with a middling .258/.327/.326 performance.

Bellinger would be a significant offensive upgrade and a defensive boost for an outfield that ranks 22nd in MLB at -8 Outs Above Average. Mike Yastrzemski could move to the corner opposite Michael Conforto, while Austin Slater stays on hand as a right-handed complement to the all lefty-hitting outfield. If Mitch Haniger returns before season’s end, he’d be a corner/designated hitter option.

Yankees

The Yankees are desperate for offensive help. Harrison Bader is one of the few productive regulars in their Aaron Judge-less lineup, but the corner outfield has been manned by depth types like Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun (both now on the injured list), Billy McKinney and Isiah Kiner-Falefa. Even after Judge comes back, one of the corner outfield spots is open.

Acquiring Bellinger would push the Yankees past the $293MM fourth competitive balance tax line unless the Cubs paid down the entire deal (thereby increasing the prospect return). New York has been reluctant to exceed that rather symbolic marker — there are no additional non-monetary penalties for doing so — but ownership and the front office could feel increased pressure to add to a floundering roster that is now outside the playoff picture. It’s easy to see the appeal of adding Bellinger’s left-handed bat to the Yankee Stadium short porch and a lineup that skews heavily to the right side.

Next Tier Down

Phillies

Any interest on Philadelphia’s part would probably be contingent on Bryce Harper holding up at first base. If the Phils are convinced he’s an everyday option there, they could kick Kyle Schwarber to designated hitter and leave open a corner outfield spot for Bellinger. (The Phils could also pursue Bellinger as a first base option if Harper can’t play the field, though that’d leave Schwarber in a corner outfield spot.) It might not be the top priority — rotation depth and perhaps third base are bigger concerns — but it’d be viable if Harper can defend. Phils’ president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has never been afraid to push in for big names.

Rangers

Texas has gotten strong production out of Leody Taveras in center field. They’ve patched things together in left field and at designated hitter, though, relying mostly on Ezequiel Durán to carry the offensive load wherever he’s played. Travis Jankowski has been a solid fill-in as part of that rotation, but Bellinger carries far more offensive upside than the journeyman Jankowski does.

Red Sox

Center field looked like a problem for Boston not too long ago. Adam Duvall has struggled since returning from a fractured wrist. Enrique Hernández is not having a good season. The Sox have gotten their awaited Jarren Duran breakout, though. The 26-year-old former top prospect is hitting a career-best .313/.364/.508 over 269 trips to the plate. He’s not a good defensive center fielder, but with Alex Verdugo and Masataka Yoshida locked into the corner outfield, there’s nowhere else for Duran to play. Adding another lefty-hitting outfielder to the mix is probably too much of a luxury buy for a club that could use pitching and middle infield help.

Longer Shots

Angels

Mickey Moniak has played well since assuming the center field role after Mike Trout’s hamate fracture. A short-term outfield of Taylor Ward, Moniak and Hunter Renfroe could theoretically be upgraded upon, but the Halos are a fringe contender at this point and Trout is expected back in August or September.

Brewers

Milwaukee hasn’t gotten a ton out of center field. Joey Wiemer has 12 homers and is playing good defense but has a .291 on-base percentage. Milwaukee could consider upgrades there or at first base, where Bellinger would be an upgrade on the currently injured Rowdy Tellez. They might have to pay a heavier prospect return to keep Bellinger within the division, though.

Guardians

The Guardians could certainly use an offensive jolt in the outfield. Myles Straw is one of the worst hitters among everyday players. He’s typically at least playable because of elite glovework and baserunning, but his public defensive metrics this season are average. This could work, although Cleveland is arguably too fringy of a contender to pursue a rental whom they’ll have little chance of re-signing. They’re only a game and a half back of Minnesota in the AL Central but they’re two games under .500.

Marlins

Miami is relying upon 27-year-old rookie Dane Myers as a stopgap center fielder. Jazz Chisholm Jr. should be back soon to reclaim center. The corner outfield tandem of Jesús Sánchez and Bryan De La Cruz is fine but not overwhelming. The Fish could use a little more offense, but outside help seems likelier to come on the infield or behind the dish. Bellinger’s contract could also be problematic for a low-payroll Miami club that probably isn’t keen on paying a $5MM option buyout at the start of next offseason.

Twins

This one is contingent on Byron Buxton’s health. If Minnesota doesn’t feel Buxton will be able to play anything other than designated hitter all season, there’s a case for making a run at Bellinger and pushing Michael A. Taylor to the fourth outfield role. If they’re still holding out hope for Buxton’s late-season return to the outfield, this probably doesn’t work.

Dodgers

This would be very funny but it’s not happening.

——————————

San Francisco strikes me as the best fit for Bellinger altogether, assuming they’re still right in the Wild Card mix on August 1. The Giants have a lot of good position players but are short on star talent. One can argue whether the current version of Bellinger is an All-Star caliber player or a bit below that. Still, the chance to improve the outfield defense while taking some pressure off Matos to immediately hit against big league pitching should be a goal for Zaidi and his front office.

Blue Jays, Astros Interested In Marcus Stroman; Astros Interested In Cody Bellinger

By | at

The Astros “checked in” with the Cubs about two of the team’s biggest trade chips, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Houston inquired about right-hander Marcus Stroman and outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger.  Either player would essentially be a rental pickup for the Astros, as Stroman and Bellinger are each widely expected to become free agents this winter — Stroman via an opt-out in his contract, and Bellinger in declining his end of a mutual option.

The Cubs are 43-49 after today’s loss to the Red Sox, and are facing an increasingly uphill battle in both the NL Central (though Chicago is the only NLC team with a positive run differential) and NL wild card races.  Unless the Northsiders go on a real hot streak over the next two weeks, it looks like the Cubs again be looking to sell some veteran players at the August 1 trade deadline.

Houston GM Dana Brown has cited both starting pitching and a left-handed hitter as his team’s two primary target areas heading into the deadline, and landing Stroman and Bellinger in one mega-deal would check both boxes at once, if such a blockbuster trade could be negotiated.  Of course, it isn’t known at this point whether or not the Astros’ inquiries were anything more than due diligence, and it may be yet some time before the Cubs determine whether or not to pivot into seller mode.  President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said yesterday that “there is nothing we want more than to add,” so if the Cubs are even still on the fringes of the playoff race, they might still opt to keep their roster mostly intact.

From a financial perspective, the Astros’ luxury tax number is approximately $218.2MM, as per Roster Resource.  This is well under the first $233MM tax threshold, giving Houston some room to add salary — such as the roughly $10.43MM still owed to Stroman and the $5.21MM owed to Bellinger, plus the $5MM buyout of his mutual option — while avoiding a tax bill entirely.  Houston were taxpayers in 2020, however, and it isn’t out of the question that they could absorb another one-year tax hit in the first penalty tier in pursuit of another World Series title.  Of course, Chicago isn’t entirely in salary-dump mode since the organization clearly wants to compete as early as 2024, so the Astros could make a deal for either player more likely by offering more of a prospect return than a financial return.  In that scenario, the question might be how much minor league depth would the Astros want to surrender for a rental player.

Starting with Bellinger, he would add some balance to a heavily right-handed Astros lineup, and strengthen an outfield that is missing both Yordan Alvarez and Michael Brantley.  Alvarez is at least making some progress in his way back from an oblique injury, while Brantley’s status is still up in the air as he has experienced several setbacks in his recovery from shoulder surgery almost a year ago.  If Bellinger stepped into the regular center field role, Chas McCormick could spell Bellinger against southpaw pitching, and the McCormick/Corey Julks/Jake Meyers group would rotate through left field duty, with Alvarez getting most of the DH time when he returns.

Bellinger is hitting .301/.358/.524 with 12 homers and 11 steals (from 14 chances) over 257 plate appearances.  He missed about a month with a knee contusion that limited him to first base in his return to the field, but Bellinger has resumed his regular duty in center field and also regained his hitting stroke.  Bellinger had a scorching 1.209 OPS over his last 69 PA heading into today’s game.

Stroman has been outstanding all season, posting a 2.88 ERA over 118 2/3 innings.  Despite below-average strikeout and walk totals, Stroman has done an excellent job of limiting damage (an elite 3.6% barrel rate) and keeping the ball on the ground (58.4% grounder rate).  A .251 BABIP has certainly contributed to Stroman’s success, but his knack at avoiding home run damage would likely translate well to any number of contending teams with decent infield defense.

As such, many teams will surely be calling the Cubs about Stroman’s availability, and another intriguing landing spot besides the Astros has already emerged.  The Score 670’s Bruce Levine reports that the Blue Jays (Stroman’s former team) “have expressed strong interest” in the righty’s services, which would count as a bit of a surprise considering the hard feelings that reportedly existed between Stroman and the Jays before he was dealt to the Mets in 2019.  However, Stroman expressed nothing but positivity about his old club when the Cubs visited Toronto last year, and assuming the Jays front office feels the same, a Stroman return would certainly bolster the rotation.

An inconsistent offense has perhaps been the Blue Jays’ bigger problem in 2023, as a rotation that was seen as a potential weak link has been more or less solid, due to Jose Berrios’ resurgence and Yusei Kikuchi’s ability to at least stick as a fifth starter.  However, Alek Manoah’s inexplicable first-half collapse makes him an x-factor going forward, even if Manoah looked sharp in his first start back after a month-long retooling process.  Hyun-Jin Ryu (Tommy John surgery) is also expected back within the next few weeks, so technically, Toronto could have six viable starters and perhaps less of a pressing need to devote trade resources on a major arm like Stroman.

The Astros have a much clearer need for pitching, considering how injuries have drastically thinned the rotation.  Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are both gone for the season, and Jose Urquidy is just starting a rehab assignment after missing two and a half months with a shoulder injury.  Framber Valdez has already been dealing with a sore ankle and left yesterday’s start with a calf problem manager Dusty Baker hoped was only a cramp.  If this wasn’t enough, Cristian Javier has been badly struggling over his last few starts, leaving swingman Brandon Bielak and rookies Hunter Brown and J.P. France as the Astros’ most viable starters.

It simply isn’t a rotation that looks like it can contend for another championship, and even making the playoffs might be difficult for Houston given the Rangers’ lead in the AL West and the crowded nature of the wild card race.  Adding a starter in some form certainly seems like a must for the Astros, and it will be interesting to see how aggressive Brown will be in bolstering the rotation in his first trade deadline as a Major League general manager.

Cubs Activate Cody Bellinger, Option Matt Mervis

By | at

The Cubs reinstated Cody Bellinger from the 10-day injured list this afternoon. Highly-touted first baseman Matt Mervis was optioned to Triple-A Iowa in a corresponding transaction.

Bellinger is in the lineup tonight against Pittsburgh righty Johan Oviedo, hitting sixth and playing first base. It’s his first start there in two years. Bellinger came up as a first baseman but moved primarily to the outfield by 2019, as the Dodgers (and subsequently Chicago) wanted to take advantage of his elite athleticism. Bellinger has been a very good defensive outfielder but he’ll break back in at first base after losing nearly a month to a left knee contusion.

Manager David Ross suggested as much earlier this week. Sprinting is still causing Bellinger some issues, and while the Cubs feel he’s sufficiently healthy to return to the diamond, they’ll try to ease the stress by putting him at a less demanding position. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters yesterday the club is hopeful of getting Bellinger back in the outfield at some point but didn’t specify a timeline (relayed by Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune).

Bellinger will try to pick up where he left off before the injury. The former MVP has been enjoying something of a bounceback season in Chicago. He’s hitting .271/.343/.493 over 163 trips to the plate. That’s not peak form but far better than his results from his final two seasons in Los Angeles, largely attributable to him cutting his strikeout rate from around 27% to 19% this year.

His return displaces Mervis, who heads back to the minors for the first time since he was called up on May 5. The Duke product tore up minor league pitching in 2022 and started this season with a .286/.402/.560 showing in Triple-A. He couldn’t carry that success over in his first look at big league arms. Mervis hit .167/.242/.289 over his initial 27 MLB games, striking out in 32 of his 99 trips to the plate.

There’s little sense for the Cubs in relegating him to a bench role, as he’s still a potential key offensive piece for the organization moving forward. With Bellinger at first base and Chicago using a rotation at designated hitter — Trey Mancini, Christopher Morel, Patrick Wisdom, Miles Mastrobuoni and Ian Happ have split the last five starts there — the clearest path for Mervis to get consistent reps was by sending him back to Iowa.

Cody Bellinger Begins Minor League Rehab, Plays First Base

By | at

Cody Bellinger made three plate appearances for Triple-A Iowa last night, marking the first game of his minor league rehab assignment.  The former NL MVP has been out of action since May 16 due to a left knee contusion, but appears to be making good progress towards returning after close to a month on the 10-day injured list.

Bellinger played first base for Iowa, which Cubs manager David Ross said (to the Chicago Sun-Times’ Maddie Lee and other reporters) was partially due to Bellinger still having some difficulty fully extending his knee during all-out sprinting.  Even when Bellinger returns to the Cubs lineup, Ross left the door open for the outfielder to see more time at first base, noting that “[Mike] Tauchman’s swinging the bat really well and held down center field pretty well.  So [we’re] just trying to find the best lineup whenever Belli gets back.”

First base isn’t at all an unfamiliar position for Bellinger, as he has 262 career appearances as a first baseman during his seven MLB seasons.  However, he made only four appearances at first base in 2021 and none at all in 2022.  Bellinger’s injuries and struggles late in his stint with the Dodgers obviously factored into this decreased usage, not to mention the fact that Freddie Freeman took over full-time first base duty in 2022.

But, using Bellinger at first base was also something of a waste of a strong outfield glove, as Bellinger won a Gold Glove and Fielding Bible Award for his right field work in 2019, and has been an above-average defender in center field.  This glovework and strong baserunning helped Bellinger continue to earn playing time in Los Angeles even amidst his two-year funk at the plate in 2021-22.

The Dodgers opted to non-tender Bellinger this past offseason, and the Cubs inked him to a one-year deal worth $17.5MM in guaranteed money.  That includes a $5MM buyout of a $25MM mutual option, but it would seem quite unlikely that both sides would choose to exercise their option, as Bellinger was prioritizing one-year contract offers in order to return to the open market next winter with a better platform season on his resume.

Chicago’s bet on a Bellinger rebound has to some extent paid off, as prior to the month-long IL stint, Bellinger hit .271/.337/.493 with seven homers in his first 163 PA in a Cubs uniform.  The sample size is still too small to draw an overall conclusion about a bounce-back, however, and Bellinger did have only a .512 OPS in the 49 PA prior to his IL placement, so some regression might have already been at play.

There hasn’t been any indication that Bellinger’s knee problem could prevent him from returning to the outfield altogether, so the first base usage might indeed be just the Cubs’ way of getting him onto the field a bit earlier and start ramping up for his eventual return to the Major League roster.  Tauchman has also been solid (.274/.403/.323 in 78 PA) for the Cubs since his minor league contract was selected on the same day as Bellinger’s IL placement.

In the bigger picture, the 29-37 Cubs aren’t too far out of the picture in the weak NL Central, but the team might again be looking at being sellers at the trade deadline.  A 32-year-old journeyman like Tauchman probably isn’t in the Cubs’ long-term plans, so Tauchman in center field might be a preview of what Chicago’s post-deadline outfield could look like if Bellinger is dealt elsewhere.

Assuming Bellinger returns healthy and keeps hitting, he’ll be a very interesting trade chip for the Cubs to offer at the deadline, and there’s bound to be plenty of interest given how many teams explored signing Bellinger last winter.  Bellinger as a center fielder naturally has a lot more value than Bellinger as a first baseman, yet if sprinting continues to be any kind of an issue, first base is at least a fall-back position that allows him to contribute in some capacity.

Cubs Designate Eric Hosmer For Assignment

By | at

The Cubs announced a series of roster moves today, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic among those to relay them on Twitter. Infielder Nico Hoerner has been activated off the injured list, Edwin Ríos was recalled from Iowa and outfielder Mike Tauchman has had his contract selected. In corresponding moves, Cody Bellinger has been placed on the 10-day injured list retroactive to May 16 with a left knee contusion, Keegan Thompson has been optioned to Iowa and first baseman Eric Hosmer has been designated for assignment.

Hosmer, 33, signed an eight-year, $144MM deal with the Padres going into the 2018 but then saw his production tail off once the ink on that deal was dry. He had a career batting line of .284/.342/.439 prior to that deal but has hit just .263/.323/.406 since then. That latter line amounts to a wRC+ of 98, indicating he’s been a couple of ticks below league average. Since first baseman are generally expected to produce more on the offensive side of things, that’s been an obviously disappointing performance.

He was frequently the subject of trade rumors during him time in San Diego and eventually was flipped to the Red Sox at least year’s deadline with the Padres eating almost all of the remaining money on his deal, with Boston on the hook for just the league minimum. Boston was then encouraged enough by the developments of first base prospect Triston Casas that they released Hosmer in the offseason.

The Cubs then agreed to bring Hosmer aboard, which was a move that had no financial risk since the Padres were still responsible for most of the $39MM remaining on the final three years of his contract. It was seen by many that Hosmer would be a sort of placeholder, hopefully playing at a serviceable level until some younger player such as Matt Mervis eventually forced their way into the major league plans. Mervis was called up a couple of weeks ago and is hitting just .220/.256/.317 so far but Hosmer isn’t doing much better, currently slashing .234/.280/.330 for a wRC+ of 67. It seems the Cubs will use Hosmer’s at-bats on other players and let him seek out his next opportunity.

Hosmer will inevitable be released in the coming days and return to the open market. He hasn’t been able to provide much value lately but he might still get interest based on his previous work and the fact that he’d be essentially free in terms of dollars. He also appears to be respected around the game for intangibles like his clubhouse presence and leadership, which could also appeal to certain clubs.

Turning to the other moves, Bellinger seemed to injure himself by colliding with the wall in Houston while making a catch on Monday. The club took a few days to see how his situation developed but has decided to let him rest for at least another week. He was non-tendered by the Dodgers after last season due to his struggles in both 2021 and 2022 but is in better form so far this year. After signing a one-year, $17.5MM deal with the Cubs this winter, he’s hitting .271/.337/.493 in addition to stealing nine bases and playing quality defense. Christopher Morel is in center field tonight and could perhaps stay there until Bellinger comes back.

Tauchman, 32, could also be in that mix, as he’s been playing all three outfield slots in Triple-A this year. He’s also walked in an incredible 20.4% of his plate appearances, leading to a .278/.427/.443 slash line and 129 wRC+. He has 257 games of major league experience under his belt, having played for the Rockies, Yankees and Giants from 2017 to 2021. His career batting line is currently .231/.326/.378 for a wRC+ of 90. He spent 2022 with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization, hitting .289/.366/.430 in 144 games there.

Can These Five Players Sustain Their Strong Starts?

By | at

We’re about a month into the 2023 baseball season, and as is always the case there are teams that are over-performing (that’s you, Pittsburgh) and under-performing. It’s not just on the team side either, certain players are off to better than expected starts, and while a month of play isn’t enough to make a definitive judgement on one’s season, it’s certainly enough of a sample size to have a conversation about whether a player has turned a corner.

Let’s take a look at five players who are have performed better than expectations over the first month, and try and predict whether they’ll be able to sustain their strong start. (All stats are up to date entering Saturday’s matches)

Joey Gallo: .265/.368/.796 with seven home runs 

The poster boy of the three true outcome hitter, Gallo has frustrated fans from Texas to New York to LA in recent years with his tantalizing power but sky high strikeouts and sub-optimal batting averages. Last year was one of Gallo’s worst, as he posted just a .160/.280/.357 line with a strikeout rate a touch shy of 40% between the Yankees and Dodgers and hit free agency without much fanfare. The Twins brought him in on a one-year, $11MM deal and it already seems to be paying off. Gallo’s shaved almost ten percentage points off his strikeout rate and is still walking at his usual solid clip.

Gallo appears to have a really good feel for the zone at the moment, swinging at more pitches in the zone and taking fewer called strikes. I spoke with Betsy Helfand, Twins beat reporter for the St. Paul Pioneer Press, on the MLBTR Podcast this week and she detailed some changes Gallo had made in his stance over the off-season. Perhaps also he’s benefitting from the shift changes. Gallo is pulling the ball more than in recent years, perhaps freed up to play more of his natural style with teams unable to shift quite so aggressively against him.

In any case, there’s a lot to like about Gallo’s start to the season in Minnesota. It’s probably unlikely he continues to hit a home run every seven at bats, but there’s every chance the Twins have themselves a much better version of Gallo than we’ve seen recently.

Yusei Kikuchi: Five starts, 27 IP, 3.00 ERA, 9.3 SO/9, 2.0 BB/9

Kikuchi came into the season clinging onto the final rotation spot in Toronto, but he’s been a really solid arm for them over the first month. Last season Kikuchi posted a 5.25 ERA in 20 starts for the Blue Jays and wound up out of the rotation by the end of the season. A big reason for his turnaround this year is a significant drop in his walk rate. Last season, Kikuchi was handing out free passes 12.8% of the time. This season? Just 5.7%. He’s also tweaked his pitch mix a bit, leaning less often on his fastball and bumping up the usage of his slider and splitter.

Yet a peak under the hood of Kikuchi’s performance does raise some red flags. He is still giving up far too many home runs, conceding about two every nine innings, much the same as his rate last year. He’s also carrying a sky high 97.2% left on base percentage, which is bound to drop some.

All in all, I’m skeptical Kikuchi holds on to the sort of numbers he’s putting up over his first five starts and expect a decent amount of regression. Maybe that still results in an improvement on last year and provides the Jays with enough to feel comfortable running him out every fifth day, but I still think he ends up with an ERA somewhere in the fours rather than the threes.

Cody Bellinger: .298/.475/.560 with five home runs 

After winning the NL MVP in 2019 with the Dodgers, Bellinger has descended into a below average hitter since, putting up a wRC+ of just 78 between 2020-22. That led the Dodgers to non-tender him at the end of last season, and he latched on with the Cubs on a one-year, $17.5MM deal. It looked like an expensive gamble at the time for Chicago, but it appears to be paying off.

Bellinger has almost halved his strikeout rate from a year prior, bumped up his walk rate but still isn’t hitting the ball nearly as hard as he was during his MVP season. In fact his HardHit% is at 31 this year, and was as high as 45.6 in 2019 and 38.1 last year. The huge drop in strikeouts really is the most impressive aspect though, as that’s where Bellinger had come undone in recent years. In 2019 his K rate was just 16.9%, but it rocketed up into the 27% range over the past few seasons, so to bring it back down to an elite rate is a firm indication of some meaningful change in Bellinger’s performance.

So with all that considered perhaps he’s sort of back? Mostly back? Or maybe on the way to being back? Either way, it’s still a hugely productive player for the Cubs and the signs are there that even if he’s not peak-Bellinger he’s still very much turned a corner.

Johan Oviedo: Five starts, 29 2/3 IP, 3.03 ERA, 8.8 SO/9, 3.3 BB/9

Little was made of the return the Pirates received for Jose Quintana when they dealt him to the Cardinals at the deadline last summer. Yet in Oviedo, with a few changes, they may have unearthed a really solid mid-rotation arm. Oviedo had been a ho-hum arm in the Cardinals system getting mixed results and it didn’t appear as though his departure would really change much in St Louis.

Yet since coming over the Pirates, Oviedo has blossomed, and I’ll borrow from my colleague Steve Adams’ analysis in a broader Front Office piece on Pittsburgh’s impressive start to the season, which includes this on Oviedo:

Oviedo has upped his fastball velocity, doubled his curveball usage and morphed from a fringey swingman to what looks like a legitimate Major League starter. He’s not an ace, but the tangible changes here and immediate results are intriguing.

Oviedo’s fastball velocity may be up to 96.6 mph on average, but he’s throwing the pitch at a career-low 33.7% clip, instead heavily favoring his slider and curveball, both of which have a 34% whiff rate in 2023, per Statcast. Fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches have led to a stark increase in ground-ball rate – a well above-average 55.7% in 2023 – and a glut of weak contact. He’s yielded just an 85.6 mph average exit velocity and a paltry 31.1% hard-hit rate.

Steve’s piece is well worth a read, but the key here is that Oviedo and the Pirates coaching staff have made meaningful change to his pitching repertoire and are seeing results. With that in mind, it’s hard not buy this start from Oviedo. Perhaps there’s a bit of regression from the 3.03 ERA, but even if the Bucs have landed themselves a solid third or fourth starter who gives them a chance to win each time he takes the mound, it’s a huge win.

Jarred Kelenic: .325/.380/.663 with seven home runs

Is it finally happening? Kelenic has been one of the game’s top prospects for a number of years now but has failed to make an impact at the highest level. That may be changing. Kelenic has been one of the best hitters on a struggling Seattle team to start 2023, and could be blossoming into the sort of player the team dreamed on when they acquired him from the Mets.

Sure, Kelenic will see some regression from the .385 BABIP he holds right now, but the guy is hitting the ball and hitting it hard. He’s already barreled up ten balls and his HardHit% sits at 57.6%, a full 22 percentage points higher than last year and his exit velocity has shot up from the previous two campaigns.

As Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic details, Kelenic spent the winter in Arizona revamping his swing with Tim Laker, a former Mariners hitting coach and the results are clear. A career .168/.251/338 hitter in the big leagues, Kelenic looks to have finally broken out in 2023. Even if his strikeout and walk rates are largely in line with his previous numbers the fact that he can do more – a lot more – with the contact that he is making is the difference.

Cubs Designate Luis Torrens For Assignment

By and | at

The Cubs have reinstated outfielder Cody Bellinger from the paternity list, per Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Catcher Luis Torrens was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Torrens, 26, has appeared in 13 games for the Cubs this season but tallied only 22 plate appearances. He’s 5-for-20 with a double, a walk and eight strikeouts in that time (.250/.318/.300).

Signed to a minor league deal back in January, Torrens has spent the past two-plus seasons with the Mariners after being sent from San Diego to Seattle alongside Ty France and Andres Munoz in the Austin Nola trade. He’s totaled 266 big league games and 799 plate appearances, batting .227/.289/.352 with 19 home runs, a 7.8% walk rate and a 26% strikeout rate. Torrens hasn’t made much hard contact in his limited plate appearances this year but showed a knack for it from 2020-22 when he averaged 91 mph off the bat and posted a hearty 45.7% hard-hit rate.

Defensively, Torrens has drawn below-average grades from Defensive Runs Saved and most pitch-framing metrics. He has a career 21.7% caught-stealing rate that’s below the league average, and he came up empty in his only attempt to throw a runner out with the Cubs. He did throw out nine of 28 attempted thieves (32.1%) as recently as last season.

The Cubs will have a week to either trade Torrens, attempt to pass him through outright waivers or release him. He was outrighted by the Mariners last August, and that prior outright assignment gives him the ability to reject a minor league assignment in favor of free agency if the Cubs place him on waivers and he goes unclaimed.

The Cubs-Dodgers Outfield Swap Puts Them In Different Positions

By | at

The Cubs and Dodgers didn’t make a trade this offseason, but a series of transactions effectively added up to one. Here’s what I mean.

  • August of 2022: Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer announces they will release Jason Heyward at the end of the season.
  • November of 2022: Heyward officially released.
  • November of 2022: Cody Bellinger is non-tendered by the Dodgers.
  • December of 2022: Cubs sign Bellinger to one-year deal.
  • December of 2022: Dodgers sign Heyward to a minor league deal.

Both clubs had a long-tenured outfielder that was posting disappointing results. In both cases, they could have kept the player for one more year. Heyward still had one season left on his contract while Bellinger still had one arbitration season remaining. But in both cases, the club decided to cut bait, then swooped in to collect the other team’s castoff.

Now each club is going to be trying to coax a bounceback season from their respective new outfielder. In a vacuum, the Cubs are more likely to succeed. Bellinger has struggled over the past two years, producing a dismal .165/.240/.302 batting line in 2021 and then a subpar .210/.265/.389 slash last year. However, he was above average in 2020 and was the National League’s Most Valuable Player in 2019. He launched 47 home runs in that MVP season while hitting .305/.406/.629 for a wRC+ of 161. He also stole 15 bases and was graded well for his defensive work, being deemed to be worth 7.7 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.

Heyward, on the other hand, has never really touched that kind of ceiling, and certainly not recently. He had a strong showing at the plate in 2020 but hasn’t been an above average hitter in a full season since 2015. He hit .293/.359/.439 for the Cardinals that year, leading to a 121 wRC+. He also stole 23 bases and was strong in the field, leading to a 5.6 fWAR tally. However, he’s been well below that type of production since then, including being below replacement level last year.

Bellinger was himself below replacement level in 2021, but that was at least partly caused by shoulder issues. Both players have struggled in recent years but Bellinger was an MVP not too long ago. Heyward has never been on that tier and hasn’t been close in almost a decade. Bellinger also plays the more premier position, as he figures to be the Cubs’ everyday center fielder. Heyward has played center on occasion but has primarily been a right fielder in his career. Given that Bellinger is only 27 years old and Heyward is 33, the likelihood of a return to form would seem to be stronger with Bellinger.

The Cubs seem to have backed the horse more likely to end up in the winner’s circle, but they also have way more on the line. Heyward still had $22MM left on his deal when he was released and the Cubs are still on the hook for that. Assuming he is eventually added to the Dodgers’ roster, they will only be responsible for paying him the prorated league minimum, with that amount subtracted from what the Cubs pay.

Bellinger, on the other hand, isn’t owed anything by the Dodgers since they didn’t tender him a contract for this year. The Cubs brought him aboard by guaranteeing him $17.5MM, in the form of a $12.5MM salary and $5MM buyout on a mutual option for 2024. That means that the Cubs are paying the salaries of both players, with the figures combining to be worth almost $40MM. The Dodgers aren’t really committed to either player right now and won’t even be paying meaningful money if Heyward does make the team.

Heyward’s chances of cracking the roster seem to have increased lately. With Gavin Lux potentially out for the entire season, it seems that Chris Taylor will be spending more time on the infield and less in the outfield. That subtracts from the club’s outfield depth a bit, perhaps increasing the need for a non-roster invitee like Heyward.

There’s also a bit of positive buzz around Heyward in spring so far. Last month, Freddie Freeman told reporters, including Alden González of ESPN, that Heyward had altered his stance and “might have unlocked something.” Heyward has four hits in ten at-bats so far this spring, including a pair of home runs. A few good spring games don’t mean much and it’s dangerous to draw meaningful conclusions from them, but it’s nonetheless encouraging, especially given the club’s penchant for helping journeymen find the best versions of themselves. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that Heyward is impressing L.A. officials and expected to make the team.

Again, this isn’t to get carried away. The season hasn’t even begun and a few good spring games shouldn’t make us forget about Heyward’s past six full seasons. It’s entirely possible that he continues to disappoint and this hot spring eventually becomes a footnote. But the Dodgers have little to lose in that case. It might be a bit embarrassing if Bellinger returns to form after they let him go for nothing. But at least they saved his salary, which was projected to be $18.1MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. They were then able to redirect that money into players like Noah Syndergaard and J.D. Martinez, who will cost $23MM combined this year.

The Cubs are perhaps facing a much more cringeworthy worst-case scenario. There is some non-zero chance that they have to watch Heyward thrive in Los Angeles while Bellinger struggles in Chicago, as they pay the salaries of both players. Time will tell whether that scenario is likely or not, but the Cubs have almost forty million reasons to hope it doesn’t come true.

Cubs Sign Cody Bellinger

By | at

December 14: The Cubs have officially announced the signing.

December 6: The Cubs are in agreement on a deal with outfielder Cody Bellinger. It will be a one-year deal with a $12.5MM salary and a $5MM buyout on a mutual option, bringing the guarantee to $17.5MM. Bellinger is represented by the Boras Corporation.

Bellinger, 27, has been one of the more interesting free agents this offseason, given that he has shown incredible upside in the past but has been in a dismal downturn in recent years. Over his first three seasons, 2017 to 2019, Bellinger hit 111 home runs and stole 39 bases. He walked in 12.4% of his plate appearances, leading to a batting line of .278/.368/.559 for a wRC+ of 140, indicating he was 40% better than league average during that time. That included a 2019 season where he hit 47 home runs, swiped 15 bags and produced a wRC+ of 161. He also provided excellent outfield defense, leading to a tally of 7.7 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs. He was awarded the National League Most Valuable Player award for that season.

Bellinger slid a bit from those heights in the shortened 2020 season. He hit .239/.333/.455, still above average with his wRC+ finishing at 112, but a significant drop-off from previous seasons. An ill-advised celebration in the postseason caused a shoulder injury that required surgery and he hasn’t seemed himself since. He hit just .165/.240/.302 in 2021 for a wRC+ of 47, then bounced back a bit in 2022 but still finished at .210/.265/.389, wRC+ of 83.

Despite those down years, Bellinger’s salary kept climbing for a few reasons. He reached arbitration for the first time going into 2020, on the heels of his MVP campaign, as a Super Two player. He quickly jumped up to $11.5MM in his first year of eligibility and then to $16.1MM for 2021 after having a diminished but still productive 2020. Since the arbitration system is designed to push salaries up, Bellinger jumped to $17MM for 2022 despite his poor performance in the prior season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected another jump to $18.1MM for 2023 but the Dodgers decided to cut bait and non-tendered Bellinger, sending him to free agency. With Bellinger now moving on to a new club, they will have to chart a new course in center field for 2023.

Despite the rough few years Bellinger has had, he still found robust interest as a free agent. At one point, Heyman reported that there were 11 teams at the table. That’s due to a couple of factors, one of them being that Bellinger was looking for a one-year deal so that he could potentially return to form and then go back to free agency in search of a better deal. That opened the door to many suitors who would normally be wary of a lengthy commitment but would happily take a short-term bet on a player with MVP upside. There’s also the fact that Bellinger provides a decent floor with his speed and excellent center field defense. Despite a subpar batting line in 2022, he still produced 1.7 fWAR by stealing 17 bases and producing six Outs Above Average in center field.

The Cubs were linked to Bellinger a few weeks ago and make plenty of sense as a landing spot for him. The rebuilding team had a rotating cast of characters playing center field for them this year, including Christopher Morel, Jason Heyward, Rafael Ortega, Nelson Velázquez and Michael Hermosillo. All of those players were subpar at the plate except for Morel, who is a natural infielder and produced poor defensive numbers on the grass. The Cubs have some intriguing outfield prospects that could fill this role in the long run, but Bellinger and Ian Happ are set to become free agents a year from now, meaning there’s plenty of long-term runway. Seiya Suzuki, who’s controlled through 2026, is the only outfielder penciled in for the long haul.

Financially, there’s no real impediment for the Cubs either. Bellinger’s contract pushes their commitments to just under $140MM for next year, according to Roster Resource. They had an Opening Day payroll of $143MM in 2022, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but have been over $203MM in recent seasons and should have plenty of space still to work with.

The Cubs have been rebuilding in recent years but could be aggressive this offseason in trying to return to contention in 2023. Whether they are successful or not, Bellinger could potentially be valuable to them. As mentioned, Bellinger can still be a useful ballplayer even if his bat doesn’t rebound to previous levels. If he and the team are both playing well, that’s a great outcome for all involved. If he’s playing well and the club is bad, his short-term deal means he should be able to be flipped at the deadline for prospects. As mentioned, even if Bellinger doesn’t truly bounce back, he can still be a useful player with his glovework and baserunning, meaning he could still be an interested trade chip regardless.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post was first with Bellinger going to the Cubs. Jeff Passan of ESPN first had the $17.5MM guarantee. Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times first reported the structure of the $12.5MM salary with $5MM buyout on the mutual option.

Show all

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top