New York Notes: Belt, Martinez, Cole
Veteran slugger Brandon Belt‘s free agency has surprisingly dragged into the regular season, with the soon to be 36-year-old reportedly “baffled” by the lack of offers he’s received to this point. The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly provided additional details on Belt’s free agency recently, noting that the Mets were the only club to offer Belt a guaranteed contract this winter, though he added that the deal was “almost entirely” incentives-based.
Belt is coming off an excellent season with the Blue Jays that saw him slash .254/.369/.490 with 404 trips to the plate. That included a fantastic 146 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, the eleventh-best figure among all qualified hitters last year which trailed only Shohei Ohtani among this winter’s free agents. The performance was more or less par for the course for Belt, who’s hit .258/.369/.503 since the start of the 2020 season and is a career .261/.357/.460 hitter for his career. That type of production certainly would’ve made sense for the Mets, though the club ultimately landed slugger J.D. Martinez on a one-year deal to plug the hole in the lineup at DH.
With that said, it’s somewhat surprising that the Mets were the only club to offer Belt a big league deal this winter. The only player on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 free agents list still unsigned, Belt was predicted for a one-year, $15MM deal this winter. That would’ve been a small bump over the one-year, $9.3MM deal he landed with Toronto prior to 2023 on the heels of a below-average showing at the plate during his final season with the Giants. Belt recently indicated that he still hopes to play in 2024, but also noted that he doesn’t want to settle for a minor league contract after his strong season last year.
More from the New York teams…
- Sticking with the Mets, Martinez was expected to make his debut with the club during this week’s series against the Braves, but that plan appears to have been scuttled. As relayed by MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, manager Carlos Mendoza told reporters that Martinez is dealing with “general body soreness” and is not yet ready for his big league debut. Now, DiComo reports that the plan is for Martinez to take the next two days off and return to minor league action on Tuesday, with Friday as the earliest Martinez could make his big league Mets debut. The 36-year-old slugger slashed an impressive .271/.321/.572 with 33 home runs in 113 games with the Dodgers last year and figures to provide a major boost to the big league lineup, which ranks 28th in the majors with a 64 wRC+ so far in the young 2024 campaign.
- Looking toward the Bronx, Yankees fans received positive news regarding ace right-hander Gerrit Cole this morning, as manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including Greg Joyce of the New York Post) that Cole is nearing the beginnings of a throwing program. Cole started the season on the injured list while rehabbing nerve inflammation on his elbow, and now is expected to begin playing catch as soon as tomorrow. Cole, 33, is the reigning AL Cy Young award winner and a six-time All Star who pitched to a sterling 2.63 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate in 209 innings of work. If the right-hander can make a relatively speedy return from his rehab, it would surely provide a major boost to the Yankees as they look to return to the postseason.
Yankees Place Gerrit Cole On 60-Day Injured List
The Yankees announced a series of Opening Day roster moves today, with right-hander Gerrit Cole placed on the 60-day injured list. His 40-man roster spot will go to right-hander Nick Burdi, who was previously reported to have made the club.
Over recent weeks, Cole and the Yankees got a big scare when he was dealing with some elbow issues and was sent for testing. While this led to all kinds of panic about possible surgery and lengthy absences, the eventual news ended up being on the mild side compared to those doomsday scenarios. He was diagnosed with nerve inflammation and edema and recommended for non-surgical rehab.
That’s obviously a better outcome than sitting out the entire year or longer, but he’s still going to miss some time. His return will depend on how he progresses in the coming weeks but it’s been suggested he’s at least a month or two away from coming back. This move means he’ll be ineligible to be activated until late May, so the Yankees evidently don’t think he’ll be able to return before then.
In the meantime, the Yanks will roll out a rotation of Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman, Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil to start the season.
Gerrit Cole Recommended For Non-Surgical Rehab On Elbow
March 16: Cole will be shut down for the next three to four weeks before re-evaluating his condition, the Yankees ace told reporters, including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. He added that it is too soon to determine a date for his return (per Hoch). The reigning AL Cy Young winner is nursing some nerve inflammation and edema, which he is planning to treat with “rest and recovery.” He does not anticipate getting any PRP injections.
March 14: The Yankees and their fans can breathe a sigh of relief. Jon Heyman and Mark W. Sanchez of the New York Post report that defending AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is expected to avoid surgery after further evaluation on his ailing elbow. The recommendation is for a treatment program of rest and non-surgical rehab.
Heyman and Sanchez report that Cole is expected to be out for roughly one to two months. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that the timeline for a return to MLB action should be closer to 10-12 weeks. In either case, surgery isn’t on the table at present and the Yankees should get their ace back within the season’s first half.
That was the initial expectation. Team doctors reportedly identified the issue as elbow inflammation and concluded that Cole’s ulnar collateral ligament was intact. He nevertheless visited noted orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache for additional testing today. It seems that in-person evaluation confirmed the initial indication that Cole has not sustained any UCL damage.
It’s a positive development given the concern any time a pitcher, especially one at Cole’s level, heads for an MRI on his throwing elbow. Still, the Yankees are going to have to navigate the early portion of the schedule without him. If the timeline checks in closer to 10-12 weeks, he probably wouldn’t make his season debut until June. There’s a chance he winds up on the 60-day injured list.
There’s obviously no way to replace a pitcher of Cole’s caliber, but his absence puts additional pressure on the rotation depth. Carlos Rodón, Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes project as the top three arms in the season-opening rotation. Clarke Schmidt is penciled into the fourth spot. There’s not a clear #5 starter at the moment. Prospect Clayton Beeter is on the 40-man roster, as are Yoendrys Gómez and Luis Gil. The latter two were optioned to minor league camp in the first week of March, suggesting they’re a bit further down the depth chart. Chase Hampton and Will Warren are not on the 40-man roster, but they’re upper level starting pitching prospects with more advanced control than Beeter has shown in the minors. Luke Weaver has plenty of starting experience and returned to the Yankees via $2MM free agent deal. He’s coming off a 6.40 ERA season.
The Yankees could benefit from adding veteran stability to the back end. They recently checked in with Michael Lorenzen, arguably the #3 starter still on the free agent market. Lorezen certainly doesn’t have the upside of either of the top two unsigned pitchers, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, but he’d come at nowhere near the cost. That’s an obvious concern for a franchise that would pay a 110% tax on further spending.
If New York expected Cole to miss the entire season, perhaps that’d have increased their urgency to land one of Snell or Montgomery regardless of the money. That seems less likely with the Yankees anticipating Cole’s return in late May or early June, but a mid-tier arm like Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger could remain in play.
Gerrit Cole Meeting With Dr. Neal ElAttrache Today
March 14: Cole is meeting with Dr. ElAttrache today, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. Manager Aaron Boone expects more information on his status this evening, although that doesn’t ensure that the Yankees will publicly disclose an update tonight.
March 13: Reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Gerrit Cole will miss at least the first month or two of the season due to an elbow injury, report Jon Heyman and Mark Sanchez of the New York Post. Cole underwent an MRI earlier this week after experiencing difficulty recovering between spring starts and throwing sessions. The Yankees haven’t made a formal announcement on the injury or a timetable yet. Heyman reports that initial imaging on Cole’s right elbow has not detected a ligament tear, though there’s some inflammation and swelling still present. Cole’s MRI has been reviewed by multiple parties, including renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache. Per the report, ElAttrache did not see a ligament tear but nonetheless suggested an in-person visit to personally examine Cole.
While it’s a sigh of relief that early imaging didn’t reveal a major tear, the fact that Cole is going for further testing remains an ominous sign. Inflammation can at times be substantial enough that it masks structural damage. Only time will tell whether that’s the case with Cole. Regardless, to call even an absence of roughly four to eight weeks for Cole a major blow for the team would only be stating the obvious. The 33-year-old righty is on the short list of baseball’s best and — until now — most durable pitchers. Furthermore, the Yankees’ rotation behind Cole is rife with question marks.
New York signed right-hander Marcus Stroman to a two-year, $37MM deal in the offseason, but Stroman’s All-Star 2023 season was cut short by second-half injuries — a hip issue and rib cartilage fractures. He was sporting an ERA in the low-2.00s for much of the season but was hit rocked in July while pitching through the hip injury and struggled down the stretch after returning from what wound up being an extended absence due to the rib troubles.
Lefties Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes were both limited to fewer than 65 innings in 2023, and neither pitched anywhere close to his 2021-22 form. Rodon’s season was particularly alarming, given that he’d pitched at Cy Young-caliber levels the prior two years and inked a six-year, $162MM deal with the Yankees just last offseason. A forearm strain and hamstring strain combined to limit Rodon to 64 1/3 innings — during which time he posted a 6.85 ERA with a 22.4% strikeout rate that was 11.5 percentage points shy of his ’21-’22 rate. Cortes, meanwhile, twice hit the IL with a strained rotator cuff in his left shoulder. His 4.97 ERA in 63 1/3 innings was more than double the 2.44 number he’d posted the year prior.
Right-hander Clarke Schmidt was the only other Yankees pitcher to make even 20 starts last year. He took the ball for a full slate of 32 games, pitching 159 innings with a 4.64 earned run average. Schmidt’s 21.5% strikeout rate was below the league average, but his 6.6% walk rate was strong and his 43.8% grounder rate, which clocked in a couple percentage points ahead of the average starting pitcher. Schmidt was too homer-prone (1.36 HR/9) but at least looked like he could give the Yankees around five competitive innings every fifth day, which could prove crucial with Cole shelved for a notable period and several injury question marks alongside him on the starting staff.
The Yankees traded away a significant amount of rotation depth when dealing Michael King, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez to the Padres as part of the Juan Soto trade. Remaining in-house options for the now-vacant rotation spot include young righties Clayton Beeter, Luis Gil and Yoendrys Gomez — all three of whom are on the 40-man roster. Veteran righty Luke Weaver inked a one-year, $2MM deal and was expected to serve as a swingman, but he has ample starting experience in the majors and pitched well in three September starts for the Yanks last year. Top prospects Chase Hampton and Will Warren were both invited to camp as non-roster players, but neither is on the 40-man roster.
Of course, the possibility remains that the Yankees will go outside the organization to bring in a more established arm. Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery remain unsigned, but the 110% luxury tax the team would pay on top of either player’s salary could prove exorbitant. Snell, in particular, would also cost the Yankees their second-highest draft choice in 2024 and require them to forfeit $1MM in bonus space from next year’s international amateur free agency pool. Ownership’s appetite for signing either player will now be tested. If not them, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote last night that righty Michael Lorenzen “could be an option” for the Yankees, though it’s not clear if the two parties have had any serious talks recently.
The trade market offers at least one more marquee name, and that seems to be the Yankees’ current area of focus. GM Brian Cashman and his staff have reportedly already presented the White Sox with a new offer for top starter Dylan Cease, though they’re joined by both the Rangers and Padres in their late pursuit of the 2022 AL Cy Young runner-up. The ChiSox had previously insisted that the Yankees include top outfield prospect Spencer Jones in any trade for Cease. The Yankees have balked at that ask. The new proposal to the Sox reportedly does not include Jones, though with several teams in the mix for Cease and the Yankees now staring down a potential two-month absence for Cole, it’s possible they’ll eventually acquiesce and meet Chicago’s asking price.
MLBTR Podcast: Injured Pitchers, Brayan Bello’s Extension, Mookie At Shortstop And J.D. Davis
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Injuries to pitchers such as Gerrit Cole of the Yankees and Lucas Giolito of the Red Sox and the potential ripple effects (1:45)
- Red Sox sign Brayan Bello to an extension (7:10)
- Dodgers moving Mookie Betts to shortstop (10:40)
- Giants release J.D. Davis (16:10)
- Noelvi Marté of the Reds suspended for PEDs (22:50)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Who had the worst offseason and why is it the Angels? (25:15)
- Fact or Fiction? The Red Sox are going to trade Masataka Yoshida. (28:50)
- Considering the amount of effort the Tigers front office has put into fielding a major league team in the past 10 years, should Tiger fans feel slighted? “They can wait” seems to be the attitude. Should Tiger fans just stop buying Little Caesars pizza and encourage their friends to buy their pizzas elsewhere? I am sure franchise owners enjoy being associated with a cheap loser. (31:20)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Giants Sign Matt Chapman, Zack Wheeler’s Extension, And Blake Snell And Jordan Montgomery Remain – listen here
- How Cody Bellinger’s Deal Affects The Other Free Agents And Why The Offseason Played Out Like This – listen here
- Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Yankees Notes: Judge, Cole, Rotation
Yankees star Aaron Judge has been slowed a bit by some abdominal discomfort recently, with manager Aaron Boone telling reporters yesterday that the 2022 AL MVP is “mid-spring banged up” while downplaying concerns of a more serious injury. Judge revealed this morning that he underwent an MRI on his abdominal region yesterday to ascertain that there was no significant injury at play (X link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). That imaging came back clean. Judge says he won’t swing a bat until later this week but is hopeful he’ll be in the Opening Day lineup.
On the one hand, the fact that Judge has avoided any kind of serious injury is an obvious cause for relief. On the other, it’s hardly ideal that the season hasn’t even begun and he’s less than 100 percent. Judge specified that the discomfort he’s felt has been in the middle of his abdominal muscles — not his oblique region. That’s particularly notable given that Judge has had a pair of oblique strains in the past, including a Grade 2 strain in 2019 that cost him two months of the season.
“I think just from swinging from November all the way until now, every single day, it put some wear and tear on it,” said Judge (via Hoch). “Especially coming back after a [right] toe injury when your mechanics are a little messed up and you’re just working on some things.”
Judge, 32 in April, was once again excellent in 2023 — though a hip strain in late April cost him 10 days, while the sprained toe he referenced wound up shelving him for more than a month. In all, he played in 106 games — his fewest in a 162-game season since 2019 — and posting a brilliant .267/.406/.613 slash with 37 home runs in just 458 trips to the plate.
The Yankees are already awaiting MRI results on ace and reigning Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole. Coupling that with even minor concern about the team’s best all-around player makes for an uncomfortable few days for the club and its fans. The Yankees indicated yesterday that Cole is expected to receive multiple opinions on his MRI results. An announcement today is not necessarily a given. SNY’s Andy Martino wrote yesterday that club officials have characterized the Cole MRI as “precautionary” and downplayed concern over a potential long-term injury. Time will tell whether that proves to be the case.
In the wake of the Cole news, there’s been a renewed focus on the Yankees’ rotation depth and ample speculation on contingency plans. The remaining pair of high-profile Scott Boras clients — Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery — have been at the forefront of that speculation. Martino reported in his piece that the Yankees haven’t yet circled back to Snell since concerns about Cole arose. Joel Sherman of the New York Post throws some cold water on the idea of the Yankees pivoting to either left-hander.
The luxury tax concerns for the Yankees have been highlighted at length by now. As a reminder, they’re a third-time payor who’s in the fourth and final tier of penalization. Any further additions to the payroll will be taxed at a 110% rate (based on the contract’s AAV) on top of the player’s salary. In the case of Snell, he’d also require forfeiting the team’s second-highest draft pick and surrendering $1MM of pool space in next year’s international free agent bonus pool, because Snell rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres.
Perhaps in part because of that, Sherman reports that the Yankees were more interested in Montgomery earlier in the offseason than in Snell — despite making a reported offer to the latter. The Yankees, per Sherman, “could not get a strong engagement” from Montgomery at the time, however. That lines up with some late-February reporting from The Athletic’s Jim Bowden, wherein he wrote that Montgomery’s hope had been for a return to the Rangers and that it was “believed” he did not “prefer” a Yankees reunion. With Montgomery still lingering on the market and the Rangers seemingly disinclined to spend further, none of that should expressly rule out an eventual match between Montgomery and the Yankees.
Sherman suggests that the likeliest course of action for the Yankees is to stand pat regardless of the news on Cole, though he opines that if they do make a move, they’re likelier to meet the White Sox’ asking price for right-hander Dylan Cease than they are to sign Snell or Montgomery. Cease is making $8MM this season and is controlled through 2025 via arbitration. He’d come with an $8.8MM luxury hit, but that’s a pittance relative to the tax hits it’d take to sign Montgomery or Snell for an AAV of $25-30MM — if not more. Prior reporting has indicated that the ChiSox were insistent on the inclusion of top outfield prospect Spencer Jones in talks regarding Cease, while the Yankees have been loath to consider moving him in any deal.
Gerrit Cole Undergoing MRI On Right Elbow
Yankees ace and reigning American League Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is headed for an MRI on his right elbow, manager Aaron Boone told reporters Monday morning (X link via Newsday’s David Lennon). Cole hasn’t been recovering as well between throwing sessions and will get his elbow checked out to determine if there’s an injury at play. The imaging will take place today.
Cole will receive multiple opinions on the status of his elbow, and the Yankees don’t expect to announce a prognosis today or even tomorrow, tweets Bryan Hoch of MLB.com.
Boone didn’t provide additional details. The organization’s level of concern regarding a potential serious injury isn’t clear, though imaging performed on any pitcher’s elbow is an ominous sign. That’s particularly true in a Yankees rotation that can ill afford to lose its ace. Granted, no team is built to withstand the loss of a reigning Cy Young winner, but the rotation behind Cole is filled with a series of question marks.
The first season of Carlos Rodon‘s six-year, $162MM contract with the Yankees played out in disastrous fashion. After a dominant two-year run between the White Sox and Giants from 2021-22, Rodon was limited by injuries in 2023, logging just 14 starts (64 1/3 innings) and yielding a grisly 6.85 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that both trended heavily in the wrong direction (22.4% and 9.8%, respectively — down from 33.9% and 7.1% in the two seasons prior).
A strained left rotator cuff limited southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. to a near-identical slate of 63 1/3 frames in 2023. He’s broken out with a pair of sub-3.00 ERA campaigns over the two preceding seasons. While Cortes maintained strong strikeout and walk rates, he became even more fly-ball heavy, inducing grounders at a minuscule 26% clip. He saw his HR/9 mark spike from 0.91 the year prior to 1.56 in 2023. Cortes didn’t see a disproportionate number of his fly-balls leave the yard (just 11%), but the sheer volume of balls in the air worked against him both at home (1.45 HR/9) and on the road (1.73 HR/9).
The Yankees picked up Marcus Stroman on a two-year, $37MM contract this offseason to help solidify the rotation, but he’s coming off an injury-marred season of his own. Stroman was in the NL Cy Young conversation with a strong first few months of the ’23 season before being rocked in July and placed on the injured list due to a hip injury. While rehabbing, he was diagnosed with fractures in his rib cartilage that further slowed his return to the mound. He made it back for four appearances late in the season but didn’t pitch particularly well. After carrying a 2.88 ERA through his first 20 starts, Stroman pitched just 18 more innings on the season and was lit up for 26 runs (22 earned) in that time.
Right-hander Clarke Schmidt finished second on the team with 32 starts and 159 innings pitched, though he turned in back-of-the-rotation results due in large part to his own susceptibility to home runs. Schmidt looks like he can at least be an innings eater this season, but he’s yet to have the same type of MLB success that any of his rotationmates has enjoyed in the past. There’s surely hope within the organization that the former top prospect can take a step forward, but his ability to do so (or lack thereof) will be even more pivotal if it’s determined that Cole has any type of notable injury.
The depth options behind that top quintet are shakier still. Veteran Luke Weaver inked a one-year, $2MM deal late in the offseason and seems ticketed for a swingman role, but he could start games if Cole requires any kind of absence. Weaver pitched well in three starts for the Yanks late last season but had a collective 6.40 ERA between Cincinnati, Seattle and New York — his third time in the past four seasons recording an ERA north of 6.00.
Down on the farm, the Yankees have righties Luis Gil, Clayton Beeter and Yoendrys Gomez on the 40-man roster. Gil has the most big league experience, and impressive as he was through six starts in 2021, he’s pitched just 29 2/3 total innings over the past two years owing to Tommy John surgery. Gomez pitched two MLB innings last year. Beeter has not reached the majors. Prospect Will Warren had a nice year between Double-A and Triple-A in 2023 but isn’t yet on the 40-man roster. He’s in camp as a non-roster invitee, however. Fellow prospect Chase Hampton and southpaw Tanner Tully were also NRIs this spring, but both have already been reassigned to minor league camp.
The mere possibility of an injury to Cole will rekindle speculation regarding free agents Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, both of whom have been tied to the Yankees at various points in the offseason. The Yankees reportedly made a five-year offer to Snell before pivoting to sign Stroman. The two sides have remained in touch with Snell, in particular, but a match has looked like a long shot given the massive tax implications that come with signing either lefty. The Yankees are a third-time luxury offender and are already in the highest tier of luxury-tax penalization. That means in addition to any actual salary for the upcoming season, they’ll pay a 110% tax on any additional contract’s average annual value. A $25MM AAV would come with a $27.5MM tax hit. A $30MM would carry a $33MM hit — and so on.
Previously, with a fully healthy rotation, such a lavish expenditure seemed unlikely. If the Yankees are facing a prolonged absence for Cole, however, that type of massive financial commitment could become far more plausible. Snell has reportedly been amenable to short-term, opt-out laden contracts with high annual salaries, while it seems Montgomery has been more focused on a longer-term contract. At this point of spring, however, it’s also worth wondering just how ready either free agent would be for Opening Day. A return to the trade market shouldn’t be discounted as a possibility, though the asking price on arms like Dylan Cease, Jesus Luzardo and others has been staggeringly high throughout the offseason (hance the lack of trade for either hurler).
Scott Boras Discusses Gerrit Cole’s 2024 Opt-Out Clause
Yankees ace Gerrit Cole just won the first Cy Young award of his career in a unanimous vote last month, adding another significant accomplishment to the right-hander’s incredible resume. The Yankees, meanwhile, are desperate to get back to the playoffs after an 82-80 campaign in 2023. The club dealt away much of its big-league ready pitching depth in order to acquire Juan Soto and Trent Grisham in a seven-player deal last week. While the trade bolstered the club’s lineup considerably, it leaves them more reliant than ever on the 33-year-old than ever as they look ahead to the 2024 season. While bounceback seasons from the likes of Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes could certainly take some of the burden off Cole’s shoulders, it’s hard to imagine much success in the Bronx next year if Cole can’t muster a repeat performance.
Betting on Cole is a fairly safe decision for the Yankees. Since being swapped from the Pirates to the Astros prior to the 2018 season, Cole has been at or near the top of virtually all pitching leaderboards. His 28.5 fWAR over the past six seasons leads all MLB pitchers, and no hurler has thrown more innings than Cole’s 1,076 2/3 frames. Cole’s 2.93 ERA is only outclassed by Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, and Walker Buehler among starting pitchers in that timeframe. His 33.4% strikeout rate is only outclassed by deGrom, Chris Sale, and Tyler Glasnow, while his 2.97 SIERA is bested by only deGrom and Sale. That combination of dominance and durability puts Cole on the shortlist for the best starting pitchers in the game at the moment.
As Cole enters year five of his nine-year, $324MM contract with the Yankees, speculation has begun to arise regarding the opt-out he holds on the final four years of this contract in New York. Even as Cole would be entering the free agent market at the age of 34, it seems all but certain that the righty would be able to top the four years and $144MM remaining on his contract on the open market barring a catastrophic 2024 campaign. With that being said, the contract isn’t as simple as Cole holding the sole decision over his opt-out clause. Should Cole decide to exercise his opt-out, the Yankees can void that decision by tacking an addition year and $36MM onto Cole’s existing contract, effectively offering him a one-year, $36MM extension that would take the sum of his deal in the Bronx to $360MM over ten years.
Agent Scott Boras, who represents Cole, has indicated he believes that’s exactly how the situation will play out next year. As quoted by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, Boras indicated that he and Cole “would anticipate” that both Cole opting out of his contract and the Yankees voiding that decision “are going to happen” next offseason. It’s a reasonable assumption to make, given the likelihood that Cole will be able to command a guarantee greater than $144MM on the open market next season. For him to actually get the opportunity to test the open market, the Yankees would need to decide they aren’t interested in retaining Cole on what would effectively be a five-year, $180MM contract.
Assuming Cole posts a reasonable facsimile of his recent performance in 2024, such a deal would appear to be roughly fair market value for his services. After all, deGrom received a five-year, $185MM contract from the Rangers last winter entering his own age-35 campaign, despite the fact that he had pitched just 156 1/3 innings over the 2021-22 seasons. Cole, by contrast, has already surpassed that tw0-year innings total before throwing a single pitch in 2024. While the $36MM average annual value of the deal would be among the heftier yearly salaries in the game, it’s no different than what the Yankees are currently paying Cole and clubs around the league haven’t shied away from offering large annual salaries to top starting pitchers, even as they grow older. The deals Scherzer and Verlander signed with the Mets the past two offseasons are perhaps the best examples of this, and each veteran hurler was offered an AAV north of $40MM on pacts that would cover Scherzer’s late thirties and Verlander’s early forties.
Shohei Ohtani Wins AL MVP
Two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani has been voted the Most Valuable Player in the American League for 2023, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien of the Rangers were second and third in the voting, respectively.
The news hardly comes as a surprise, with Ohtani having delivered another two-way season for the Angels in which the only precedent was himself. He made 23 starts as a pitcher, tossing 132 innings with an earned run average of 3.14. His 10.4% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he struck out 31.5% of batters faced. Among pitchers with at least 130 innings pitched on the year, only Spencer Strider punched out opponents at a greater rate.
As a hitter, he launched 44 home runs and drew walks at a 15.2% clip. His .304/.412/.654 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 180, indicating he was 80% better overall than the average hitter. He accomplished all of these things despite having his season cut short by injury. Due to some finger issues and then a torn UCL, he only tossed 1 1/3 innings after August 9 and not at all after August 23. He continued hitting but he later suffered an oblique strain and his last game as either a hitter or pitcher was September 3.
That didn’t matter as Ohtani had already racked up enough accomplishments to take home the award for a second time, the first coming in 2021. If it weren’t for Aaron Judge‘s record-breaking 62 home runs last year, Ohtani would have gotten a hat trick. The BBWAA notes that this is the first time a player has won a unanimous MVP twice. The most unique baseball player of all time is now the most unique free agent of all time and is surely in line to break another record, or records, when he finally puts pen to paper.
Seager and Semien each had fine seasons in their own right, but had little chance to catch Ohtani here, though they have World Series rings to soften the blow. Seager hit 33 home runs and had a wRC+ of 169 while those numbers were 29 and 124 for Semien.
Other players receiving votes were Julio Rodríguez, Kyle Tucker, Yandy Díaz, Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, José Ramírez, Gerrit Cole, Luis Robert Jr., Yordan Alvarez, Adolis García, Judge, Bo Bichette, J.P. Crawford, Cal Raleigh, Rafael Devers, Isaac Paredes, Sonny Gray, Alex Bregman and Josh Naylor.
Gerrit Cole Wins American League Cy Young Award
As expected, Gerrit Cole is the 2023 Cy Young winner in the American League. The Baseball Writers Association of America announced the Yankee star has won the award. Former Minnesota right-hander Sonny Gray was the runner-up, while Toronto’s Kevin Gausman took home third place.
There wasn’t a ton of intrigue, as Cole received all 30 first-place votes. While he’s a six-time All-Star and two-time ERA champion, this is his first career Cy Young. No AL pitcher topped Cole’s 209 innings, while he led Junior Circuit pitchers (minimum 150 innings) with a 2.63 ERA. He was sixth among that group with a 27% strikeout rate and trailed only Gausman and Pablo López with 222 punchouts overall.
That well-rounded dominance made Cole an easy call as the AL’s best pitcher in the eyes of voters. It’s his sixth top five finish and the third time he has been a finalist, as he’d twice before finished as runner-up. Having at least one Cy Young on his résumé could go a long way towards burnishing an eventual Hall of Fame case.
For now, the 33-year-old will look to replicate this year’s success in hopes of leading the Yankees back to the postseason. Despite Cole turning in one of the best seasons of his career, New York floundered midseason and finished barely above .500. Cole will be in the Bronx for at least one more year. He’s headed into year five of a nine-year, $324MM free agent contract. He has the ability to opt out after next season.
Gray received 20 second-place votes to earn the highest Cy Young finish of his career. It was well timed for the three-time All-Star, who hit free agency a couple weeks ago. Gausman secured seven second-place votes and was the most common selection for third. Stray second-place votes went to Luis Castillo and Zach Eflin, although Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish edged out that duo for fourth in overall balloting.
Others to receive at least one vote: López, George Kirby, Framber Valdez, Chris Bassitt, Félix Bautista and Chris Martin. The full results are available at the BBWAA website.
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