AL East Notes: Casas, Cole, Bichette
The Red Sox got some good news regarding the status of first baseman Triston Casas yesterday. As he told Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe, Casas has begun taking dry swings as he works his way back from torn cartilage in his midsection. Casas indicated that if he continues feeling good after a few days of dry swings, he’ll begin making contact with a ball. McWilliams added that Casas hopes to be back in the Red Sox lineup in time for a series against the Marlins that begins on July 2.
If Casas is truly just two weeks away from a return to the majors, that would be a huge relief for a Red Sox lineup that has sorely missed his presence. While the club’s overall production since he last played on April 20 is still strong, with a 107 wRC+ that ranks eighth in the majors over that time, their wRC+ at first base has sat at just 98, below average overall and well below the production of an average first baseman. Of course, Casas is a great deal better than the average first baseman; the 24-year-old’s 160 wRC+ since the All Star break last year is the 11th-best figure in the majors over that timeframe and second only to Freddie Freeman among first basemen.
As noted by McWilliams, it’s far from guaranteed that Casas will be able to reach his target date for a return, even as he’s begun swinging a bat and running the bases. McWilliams relays that manager Alex Cora was more cautious in his comments regarding Casas’s timeline, noting that while “hopefully” Casas is back during the Miami series, the club also intends to be “smart” regarding his rehab and not rush him back before he’s ready. In the meantime, the Red Sox figure to rely on a combination of Dominic Smith and Bobby Dalbec at first base.
More from around the AL East…
- Yankees ace Gerrit Cole made his third rehab start on Friday, striking out ten batters in 4 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level. While neither Cole nor manager Aaron Boone would commit to Cole’s next start for the club coming in the majors in conversation with reporters yesterday, Jon Heyman of the New York Post noted that he felt good both immediately after the outing and the next day and that his return to the big leagues will come “soon.” A quick return to the mound for Cole would be fantastic news for the Yankees, as the 2023 AL Cy Young award winner would surely bolster an already-excellent rotation that sports the league’s best ERA entering play today.
- Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has been out of the lineup for the past two games due to what manager John Schneider described to reporters (including MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson) as soreness in his right calf. It’s been a tough season at the plate for Bichette, who is hitting an uncharacteristically poor .237/.286/.342 in 276 trips to the plate with Toronto this year. Isiah Kiner-Falefa has handled shortstop in Bichette’s absence, and both Ernie Clement and Addison Barger have past experience at the position if further depth options are needed. Infielders Orelvis Martinez and Leo Jimenez are both on the 40-man roster and could step into the big leagues in the event that Bichette eventually requires a trip to the injured list.
Yankees Notes: Bullpen Trade Targets, McMahon, Cole
The Yankees’ 46-21 record is the best in the American League, and there aren’t many glaring holes on a team that has been outstanding on both the hitting and pitching fronts. As such, the Yankees’ deadline needs are fairly specific at the moment, as SNY’s Andy Martino writes that the Bronx Bombers are looking to reinforce their bullpen with another left-hander, and a right-handed strikeout specialist.
New York entered Sunday’s action with the third-best bullpen ERA in baseball, so the current relief corps is far from a weak link. However, Martino notes that “evaluators tend to slot [Caleb Ferguson and Victor Gonzalez] as the second lefty in an ideal bullpen,” so the Yankees could stand to acquire another southpaw as their top option.
Of the two in-house choices, Gonzalez has a 3.00 ERA over 18 innings but he has been drastically outperforming his peripherals. Gonzalez’s SIERA is a much less impressive 5.65, as his walk rate (13.5%) is higher than his 10.8% strikeout rate. Ferguson has something of the opposite issue, with a 5.03 ERA but a 3.62 SIERA in 19 2/3 innings, with a 25.8% strikeout rate and 11.2% walk rate.
On the right-handed side of the equation, a righty pitcher that can miss bats would be a nice complement to closer Clay Holmes, who himself throws from the right side. Holmes is having another excellent year with a 1.23 ERA and 19 saves over 29 1/3 innings, though Holmes is an extreme ground ball pitcher with a staggering 69.4% grounder rate. His strikeout rate is only a bit above the league average, however, so having more of a strikeout-focused power arm for certain high-leverage situation would allow the Yankees to save Holmes for the ninth inning.
As Martino observes, the Yankees’ knack for getting great results out of unheralded relievers means that the club might not need to pursue bigger names available at the deadline in order to fill these bullpen needs. They might not even necessarily need to go outside the organization to find the right-handed strikeout artist, as Luis Gil might eventually end up in the bullpen as part of New York’s desire to conserve his innings. Gil pitched only 29 2/3 total frames in the majors and minors over the last two seasons due to Tommy John surgery, and with 75 innings already on his ledger in 2024, it remains to be seen how much the Yankees will want him to pitch in the regular season if they’re taking the longer view of wanting Gil available throughout what they hope will be a deep postseason run.
Beyond the bullpen, both corner infield positions could be potential target areas, though Martino figures the Bombers will give the struggling Anthony Rizzo and DJ LeMahieu more time to turn things around. LeMahieu has only played 10 games since a season-opening stint on the 60-day injured list, so it is understandable that the veteran needs more time to knock off the rust.
This isn’t to say that New York wouldn’t be open to corner infield help already, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes that the Yankees are among the teams who “would love to get their hands on” Ryan McMahon. Adding McMahon would be more than just a short-term strike, as the third baseman is still owed roughly $51MM through the end of the 2027 season as per the terms of the six-year, $70MM extension he signed with the Rockies in March 2022.
While the Rox aren’t in contention and will sell at the deadline to some extent, moving McMahon is the type of bigger-picture move Colorado isn’t likely to make. Indeed, earlier reports indicated that the Rockies aren’t likely to move the third baseman, as he is still viewed as a building block on the roster.
In other Yankees news, Gerrit Cole completed his second rehab start with Double-A Somerset today. The AL Cy Young Award winner allowed one run on two hits over 4 2/3 innings, while recording four strikeouts. Cole’s 57 pitches represented a small bump up from the 45 pitches thrown in his first rehab outing, and his velocity reached as high as 96mph, according to Ryan Dunleavy of the New York Post.
Cole described the appearance to Dunleavy and other reporters as a “pretty good day, still got things to work on…Wish I would’ve been able to crisp up the location quicker. Really, that was about it.” Naturally Cole wants to be as ready as possible for his 2024 debut, so while he is set for one more rehab start, Cole wasn’t yet sure if he’ll require another outing after that. The Yankees obviously aren’t going to rush Cole in any regard, and the rotation’s great work in Cole’s absence means there isn’t even any immediate need for Cole to return to the big leagues.
2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition
We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.
That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.
- Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee
Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.
The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.
It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.
- Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee
Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.
Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.
- Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end
As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.
His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.
- Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results
Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.
He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.
Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.
- Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end
In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.
A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.
- Lucas Giolito (30): $19MM player option
Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.
Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.
- Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee
The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.
Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.
- Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee
Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.
- Clayton Kershaw (37): $5MM+ player option
The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.
It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.
- Sean Manaea (33): $13.5MM player option
Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.
If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.
- Nick Martinez (34): $12MM player option
Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.
On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.
- Jordan Montgomery (32): Conditional $20MM option if Montgomery reaches 10 starts
Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.
The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.
- Emilio Pagán (34): $8MM player option ($250K buyout)
The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.
Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.
- Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee
The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.
- Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee
Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.
The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.
- Hunter Renfroe (33): $7.5MM player option ($1MM buyout)
The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.
- Blake Snell (32): $30MM player option
The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.
Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.
- Chris Stratton (34): $4.5MM player option ($500K buyout)
The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.
He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.
- Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched
Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.
At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.
- Michael Wacha (33): $16MM player option
Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.
He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.
Gerrit Cole Scheduled To Begin Rehab Assignment On Tuesday
Reigning AL Cy Young award winner Gerrit Cole is crossing a major milestone as he prepares to return to the big leagues this week, as manager Aaron Boone told reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) that the veteran ace will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Somerset on Tuesday.
On the heels of a dominant 2023 campaign where he pitched to a 2.63 ERA and 3.16 FIP in 33 starts on a Yankees team that largely struggled, the veteran right-hander appeared poised to once again contend for the AL Cy Young award at the front of the club’s rotation this year. Unfortunately, those plans were scuttled by a bout of elbow inflammation Cole suffered early in Spring Training. That diagnosis led to some early concern that Cole could be faced with surgery, though a meeting with noted surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache confirmed that the veteran would be able to avoid surgery. He’s been rehabbing with an eye toward returning prior to the All Star break since then, and today’s news puts him one step closer to that goal.
It’s delightful news for the Yankees, who entered the season with plenty of question marks in their rotation thanks in no small part to Cole being sidelined. Fortunately for fans in the Bronx, those questions have generally been answered with strong performance: the club’s rotation ERA of 2.73 ranks second only to the Phillies among all major league clubs thanks to bounceback campaigns from lefties Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodon, quality performances from youngsters Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil, as well as the stable veteran presence of Marcus Stroman. The rotation has been so effective to this point in the season that it actually raised the question of which of the club’s standout performers would be moved to the bullpen to accommodate Cole upon his eventual return.
That question was ultimately answered organically when Schmidt found himself sidelined by a strained lat last week. Schmidt’s injury has put renewed focus on Cole’s rehab process, and assuming all goes well it appears the club should have their ace back into the fold at the major league level in relatively short order. Given the fact that Cole made just one two-inning appearance during Spring Training this year, he’ll need plenty of time to build up to full strength before he returns to the big league mound. Even so, the right-hander could make several rehab starts over the coming weeks and still return to the big league Yankees before the end of the month as long as he avoids any setbacks.
Looking ahead, Cole will join a Yankees team that has taken control of the AL East with a 41-19 record that puts them two games ahead of the Orioles for first place in the division. That jump back into contention after a difficult 2023 season has come thanks to excellent performances from not only the starting rotation but also the club’s superstar outfield duo of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Now, the Yankees have the return of a third superstar to their roster to look forward to in the coming weeks in the form of Cole.
Looking ahead to the offseason, the 33-year-old will have the opportunity to opt out of the remaining four years and $144MM on his contract with the Yankees this winter. In the event that Cole decides to exercise that opt-out, the Yankees will have the opportunity to void it by tacking an addition year and $36MM to the end of his deal with the club, effectively bumping the remaining money on the deal to $180MM over five years. Cole’s agent, Scott Boras, discussed the upcoming opt-out back in December and indicated at the time that he expects both Cole to opt out of his end of the deal and the Yankees to void that decision by tacking on the aforementioned extra year.
Of course, that was before the right-hander’s elbow issues cropped up during Spring Training, and it’s at least possible that a tough season for Cole upon his return could lead either side to change their stance on the matter. For his part, Yankees chairman Hal Steinbrenner recently indicated to reporters that he does not consider the club’s current payroll level to be “sustainable,” though it’s unclear if that opinion would impact the club’s decision-making in the event that Cole opts out this winter.
Yankees Shut Down Clarke Schmidt For 4-6 Weeks
The Yankees are shutting down starter Clarke Schmidt for 4-6 weeks. Manager Aaron Boone announced the news to the New York beat before tonight’s game with the Angels (X link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). Schmidt underwent an MRI yesterday and landed on the 15-day injured list with a lat strain this afternoon.
Schmidt’s absence will extend well beyond the minimum. He’s almost certainly out through the All-Star Break at this point. There’s a good chance he doesn’t return until after the trade deadline. Even in the best case scenario where Schmidt is able to begin a throwing program in the first half of July, he’ll need multiple weeks to return to MLB readiness. He’ll go through bullpen sessions and live batting practice before heading on a minor league rehab stint that’ll likely require at least two or three starts.
It halts what had been an excellent start to the season for the South Carolina product. Schmidt has a 2.52 ERA over 11 starts, punching out more than 27% of opposing hitters. He had performed at a back-of-the-rotation level in 2023, when he allowed 4.64 earned runs per nine over 33 appearances. Schmidt was building a reasonable All-Star case, a major reason why the Yankees have an AL-best 38-19 record.
[Related: The New and Improved Clarke Schmidt]
New York’s rotation has been stellar despite losing Gerrit Cole to elbow inflammation in Spring Training. Only the Phillies have a better ERA from their starting staff than the Yankees’ 2.69 mark. New York starters also trail just Philadelphia in strikeout rate and are behind the Phils, Mariners and Royals in innings.
That’s a remarkable couple months for a team operating without the defending AL Cy Young winner. They have had essentially perfect health following Cole’s injury. Nestor Cortes, Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil and Schmidt have taken all but one start. The Yankees will face some rotation uncertainty for the first time since March.
Cody Poteet took the lone other start, working six innings of one-run ball against the Guardians as part of a doubleheader on April 13. Poteet is the first choice to step into Schmidt’s rotation spot; Boone announced that the right-hander will take the ball in San Francisco on Saturday. While Poteet has been on the minor league injured list for a week because of a blister, he’s expected to be ready two days from now.
The Yankees signed Poteet to a split contract in January. The 29-year-old righty turned in decent numbers in 58 2/3 innings for the Marlins between 2021-22. He underwent Tommy John surgery in August ’22, leading Miami to cut him loose. That the Yankees gave him a 40-man roster spot was a surprise, but he’s thus far rewarded their faith with an impressive two months in Triple-A. Over seven starts for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, he has a 4.05 ERA with a 28.1% strikeout percentage and a solid 8.1% walk rate.
Poteet may only need to hold a starting spot for a couple weeks. Cole has been throwing for more than a month and is closing in on a rehab assignment. Boone said that the six-time All-Star could head out on a minor league stint as soon as next week (relayed on X by Chris Kirschner of the Athletic). He’ll need to make multiple starts but could be back at Yankee Stadium by the latter half of June.
Schmidt’s injury doesn’t immediately look as if it’ll impact the Yankees’ approach to the deadline. By late July, New York could have a rotation of Cole, Rodón, Stroman, Cortes and Gil with a Schmidt return on the horizon. That’d be one of the strongest units in the majors. Any more injuries would test the depth, though, particularly with Gil’s 63 1/3 innings already well beyond his combined workload of 2022-23 because of May ’22 Tommy John surgery.
AL East Notes: Cole, Springs, Vavra
The Yankees have been without reigning AL Cy Young award winner Gerrit Cole for the entire season to this point as he works his way back from a bout of elbow inflammation, though that hasn’t stopped the club from storming out of the gate to an excellent 37-17 record. The club’s starting five of Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Clarke Schmidt, and Luis Gil have all excelled in Cole’s absence, with Cortes’s 3.29 ERA (122 ERA+) standing as the weakest of the group.
Strong as the rotation has been without Cole, the Yankees are surely anxious to get their ace back into the fold. As one of the most dominant starting pitchers in the game today, Cole has posted a 3.08 ERA (136 ERA+) and 3.27 FIP in four seasons with the Yankees including an AL-best 2.63 ERA with a 3.16 FIP across 209 innings of work last year. Fortunately for the club, it seems Cole is making significant progress in his recovery. Erik Boland of Newsday reported yesterday that Cole threw all of his pitches during a 30-pitch bullpen session and touched the club-imposed velocity limit of 95 mph a few times throughout the session. Chris Kirschner of The Athletic added that Cole could begin a rehab assignment as soon as this coming week, depending on how he bounces back from yesterday’s outing.
That’s exciting news for the Yankees, although Cole would likely need a fairly lengthy rehab assignment in order to build up to a starter’s pitch count before he can return to the club. Cole’s return will give the Yankees something of a logjam in the starting rotation, as none of the club’s current options deserve to be removed from the mix based on their performance. It’s possible that Clarke Schmidt’s previous experience in the bullpen could make him a candidate to be moved out of the rotation in favor of Cole, though the club could also simply opt to utilize a six-man rotation for the time being.
More from around the AL East…
- Rays left-hander Jeffrey Springs was pulled from a rehab start in the minor leagues yesterday due to left shoulder tightness, as noted by Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times. Springs underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2023 and is just two appearances into his rehab in the Florida Complex League. It’s not yet clear if Springs’s shoulder issue is a particularly serious one, but a setback in his rehab would be an unfortunate turn of events for both player and club. The 31-year-old sports an incredible 2.34 ERA ERA in 28 starts for the Rays since the start of the 2022 season and figures to help anchor the club’s rotation once healthy. In the absence of Springs, Shane McClanahan, and Drew Rasmussen this season, Tampa has relied heavily on young, unproven arms such as Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, and Zack Littell.
- Orioles infielder Terrin Vavra missed most of the 2023 season due to what was at the time referred to as a shoulder strain, but Roch Kubatko of MASN relays that, per Vavra, his injury woes last season were much more serious than previously reported. Vavra was diagnosed with a torn labrum in his right shoulder back in September and underwent surgery on the issue later that month. Vavra’s shoulder woes last season could help to explain the 27-year-old’s struggles at the plate last year, when he slashed just .245/.315/.245 in 56 trips to the plate without recording an extra base hit despite a solid rookie performance in 2022. Vavra was outrighted off the Orioles’s 40-man roster during the offseason but remains in the organization as a potential depth option now that he’s healthy, though the club’s deep infield mix seemingly leaves him blocked at the big league level.
Yankees Notes: Cole, Dominguez, LeMahieu
Yankees ace Gerrit Cole spoke to reporters (including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch) about his rehab from right elbow inflammation, which has kept him from making his 2024 debut to this point. Cole indicated to reporters that he threw a 29-pitch bullpen session prior to the club’s game against the Rays this afternoon.
“The fastball profiles were good, and the location was good,” Cole said of the session. He added that his velocity, which averaged 89 mph, was “where we wanted it” at this point in his rehab.
In terms of next steps, Hoch indicates that Cole is scheduled for another session on the mound later this week but that, according to Cole, he does not yet have a set date for facing live hitters. Even so, Cole emphasized that he’s made “good progress” since he first resumed throwing off a mound at the beginning of the month, when reporting suggested that the veteran could be eying the middle of June for his return to the big leagues.
As a six-time All Star the reigning AL Cy Young award winner, Cole’s return to the Yankees rotation would obviously provide a massive boost for the club. With that being said, New York’s starting staff has handled itself well in the absence of its ace. Yankees starters rank seventh in the majors with a 3.36 ERA this season, thanks in part to strong performances from youngsters Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt.
Cole isn’t the only key player for the Yankees whose rehab is progressing, as Hoch also notes that manager Aaron Boone told reporters this afternoon that young center fielder Jasson Dominguez is set to begin a rehab assignment at Single-A on May 14. Dominguez, who underwent Tommy John surgery back in September, is set to spend the first two weeks of his rehab as a pure designated hitter before returning to work in the outfield. Boone told reporters (including Hoch) that Dominguez’s recovery has been “smooth” with “very few hiccups” since he went under the knife.
A longtime consensus top-50 prospect in the sport, Dominguez made his debut last season to plenty of fanfare and slashed .258/.303/.677 with four home runs in just eight games before having his season cut short by surgery. The 21-year-old seems sure to impact the Yankees in some capacity this year once healthy, though with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge locked into everyday outfield roles and both Alex Verdugo and Giancarlo Stanton hitting well to this point in the season, the club’s top prospect could have a hard time breaking into the lineup on a regular basis.
Also making progress toward a return is veteran infielder DJ LeMahieu, who fouled a ball off his foot during Spring Training and has been sidelined by a bone bruise ever since. LeMahieu began a rehab assignment back in late April as he seemingly neared a return to action but was almost immediately sidelined by right foot soreness and returned from the assignment. The veteran has worked back up to the point of facing live pitching in the weeks since then, with Boone telling reporters that live batting practice against rehabbing righty JT Brubaker “went well” for the veteran.
There still appears to be no clear timeline for the veteran’s return to action, but the fact that he’s once again participating in field work and hitting against live arms is a positive sign for the club nonetheless. It’s been difficult for the Yankees to replace LeMahieu’s production in the lineup this season even has he’s posted roughly league average numbers in recent years. New York has relied on Oswaldo Cabrera and Jon Berti at the hot corner in the veteran’s absence, but Berti has slashed just .300/.344/.300 in ten games while Cabrera has fallen back to Earth after a hot start with a paltry .212/.257/.273 line in his past 20 games.
Gerrit Cole To Begin Mound Work
The defending AL Cy Young winner will get back on a mound tomorrow. Yankees manager Aaron Boone told the New York beat that Gerrit Cole will throw from a mound on Saturday for the first time in his recovery from elbow inflammation (X link via The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner). The six-time All-Star has been throwing on flat ground in recent weeks.
Boone declined to provide a target for Cole getting back to major league readiness. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last night that the right-hander was shooting for a mid-June return. Cole is technically eligible to return from the 60-day injured list during the last week of May, but it seems he’ll need a few weeks beyond that. Cole will need to get through multiple bullpens and live batting practice sessions before he’s ready for a minor league rehab stint, which would require a handful of starts to build his pitch count.
The Yankees are out to a 20-13 start despite losing their ace. New York’s rotation entered play on Friday with the seventh-best ERA (3.48) and fifth-highest strikeout rate (24.3%) in the majors. The quintet of Marcus Stroman, Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt has taken all but one of the team’s starts. (Cody Poteet handled one spot start.) Each member of the front five has allowed between three and four earned runs per nine. That atypical level of consistency has kept the Yankees near the top of a competitive AL East.
While all of their starters have been productive, none have quite performed at an ace level. A healthy Cole should deliver that kind of production. He’s coming off a 2.63 ERA in an AL-leading 209 innings. That was the fifth sub-3.00 showing of his career. Cole punched out 222 hitters, his sixth time topping 200 punchouts.
Cole is in the fifth season of his nine-year, $324MM free agent deal. He can opt out of the remaining four seasons at the end of this year, but the Yankees could override that by triggering a $36MM club option covering the 2029 season.
Latest On DJ LeMahieu
6:23pm: LeMahieu experienced right foot soreness and was removed after one inning, the Yankees announced (X link via Joyce). He’ll return to New York for further evaluation tomorrow.
5:31pm: The Yankees announced that infielder DJ LeMahieu has been sent to Double-A Somerset to start a rehab assignment. LeMahieu is leading off tonight’s game and playing third base, per the X account of the Patriots.
LeMahieu, 35, was supposed to be the club’s everyday third baseman here in 2024 but a Spring Training injury scuttled those plans. The veteran fouled a ball of his foot and was initially diagnosed with a bone bruise. After the swelling didn’t go down, he went for a second MRI, which revealed a non-displaced fracture. He was set to begin a rehab assignment this past weekend but his foot still wasn’t healing enough and the rehab assignment was pushed back by a few days.
Manager Aaron Boone told reporters, including Bryan Hoch of MLB.com, that the plan is for LeMahieu to play four games and possibly rejoin the Yanks in time for their series against the Orioles next week.
The club is surely excited to welcome LeMahieu back but they will have a bit of a tricky decision to make in terms of distributing playing time. The veteran has hit .258/.345/.375 since the start of 2021 while battling various injuries. That’s still amounts to a 106 wRC+, indicating he was six percent better than league average in that time. But the Yankees were surely hoping for more, especially since he hit .336/.386/.536 for a 146 wRC+ over 2019 and 2020, before they re-signed him to a six-year, $90MM contract.
To start this year, Oswaldo Cabrera has taken over at the hot corner and is out to a great start. He’s hitting .290/.324/.478 so far on the young season, production that leads to a wRC+ of 133. That’s a small sample of 74 plate appearances, which means it likely doesn’t carry as much weight as LeMahieu’s career numbers, but the Yanks probably want to keep riding the hot hand.
Each of Cabrera and LeMahieu are capable of playing different positions, so the club will have some flexibility. First baseman Anthony Rizzo and second baseman Gleyber Torres are both out to slow starts, so perhaps they could get some breathers when LeMahieu and Cabrera are both healthy and looking for playing time.
Elsewhere in Yankee news, Gerrit Cole threw 50 pitches from a distance of 120 feet today, per Chris Kirschner of The Athletic. It hasn’t yet been decided when he’ll move to mound work, but Boone said it could be as soon as next week, per Greg Joyce of The New York Post.
Needless to say, any progress from Cole is a good development for the Yankees. The reigning American League Cy Young made just one official appearance during Spring Training before some elbow issues popped up. Since he wasn’t recovering as expected between throwing sessions, the club shut him down and sent him for testing. He was eventually recommended for non-surgical rehab and has been on that path for the past month or so.
Cole is on the 60-day injured list and won’t be eligible to return until late May at the earliest. Even if he begins throwing off a mound soon, he’ll likely need to redo Spring Training from scratch, meaning he’ll be out beyond that timeframe anyhow. His eventual return date will naturally be determined by how his arm holds up as he continues building up in the weeks to come.
MLBTR Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings, Ohtani’s Stolen Money And The A’s Moving To Sacramento
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- MLBTR’s 2024-25 Free Agent Power Rankings (1:30)
- Gerrit Cole didn’t crack the rankings due to his specific opt-out situation with the Yankees (6:30)
- The upcoming free agencies of Alex Bregman of the Astros and Pete Alonso of the Mets (9:20)
- Is there any scenario where Juan Soto of the Yankees is not the top free agent? (15:15)
- Ippei Mizuhara, former interpreter for Shohei Ohtani, charged with bank fraud (19:40)
- Athletics to play in Sacramento before moving to Las Vegas (32:40)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- How can a pitcher blow a save in the seventh inning? How early can a save be blown? (38:25)
- Do you think the Tigers will release Javier Báez? It is painful to watch him. (41:15)
- Who could the Braves target inside or outside the organization to replace Spencer Strider? (45:15)
Check out our past episodes!
- Reviewing Our Free Agent Predictions And Future CBA Issues – listen here
- Baseball Is Back, Will Smith’s Extension, Mike Clevinger And Jon Berti – listen here
- A Live Reaction To The Jordan Montgomery Signing, Shohei Ohtani’s Interpreter, And J.D. Martinez Joins The Mets – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!