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2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

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Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

  • Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
  • Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
  • Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
  • Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
  • Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
  • Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

  • Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
  • Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
  • Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
  • Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
  • Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
  • Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
  • Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15  ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
  • Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
  • Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.

Juan Soto Discusses Failed Extension With Nationals, Trade To Padres

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The Padres have remade their reputation in recent years, changing from a small market team to one of the heavy hitters that is seemingly in on every notable free agent and trade candidate. That included nabbing Juan Soto last year, arguably the highest profile deadline deal in recent baseball history. Players with that much talent, youth and years of control don’t usually become available, which made it a headline-grabbing frenzy when it actually did happen.

Soto recently spoke with Stephanie Apstein of Sports Illustrated and was quite candid about how he actually didn’t enjoy the process as much as he expected. The firestorm kicked off when it was reported in mid-July that Soto had rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals, which is what led to him being available in trades. It seems the outfielder wasn’t happy that those extension talks got leaked. “I wanted to do it with the Nationals, but they just made it public,” he says. “I didn’t like that at all. I hated it. I told them we weren’t speaking anymore, because they just threw everything out there.”

Although a trade seemed inevitable at that time and Soto prepared himself for it, he admitted that it hurt him more than he expected when it finally became real. Nelson Cruz, then his teammate in Washington and now again in San Diego, had to console a tearful Soto and remind him he was going to a better situation. He says that his anxiety finally abated when he returned to Washington and got a standing ovation in Nationals Park. “I really felt relieved,” he says. “I could leave that in the past and focus on Cali.” The Friars ultimately qualified for the postseason, their first playoff appearance in a full season since 2006. They knocked off the Mets and the Dodgers before falling to the Phillies in the NLCS.

Another part of the Padres’ aggressiveness has been extending their incumbent players, with Manny Machado, Yu Darvish, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth and Joe Musgrove all getting notable deals recently. It’s fair to assume they’d like to do the same with Soto, though we might not hear much about it, given his preferences. “If [the Padres can keep negotiations private], I can do it any time. I have no problem with it,” he says.

The news of him leaving nearly half a billion dollars on the table also caused a lot of stress in his inner circle, with Soto saying it put “all the fans, all the Dominicans, even my family against me.” It seemingly crept into the locker room as well. “A lot of teammates were like, ‘We respect your thinking, but that’s a lot of money,’” he says. “I’m like, ‘Guys, I’m trying to do what’s best for me and what’s best for my family.’ And you gotta go out there and perform. And you try to perform for guys that doubt you. And that’s one of the things I hated.”

The concern from those family members and teammates is presumably that Soto is taking a risk by leaving that kind of money on the table. There’s always a risk in any athlete turning down significant money, as an unexpected injury could then diminish their earning power. But Soto still has plenty of things working in his favor to get a huge payday. Since he rocketed to the majors at such a young age, he’s still only 24, younger than many top prospects who have yet to even debut. He’s slated for free agency after 2024, when he will have just turned 26 years old. This past offseason saw superstar players like Aaron Judge and Trea Turner get to $300MM and beyond, even though they were going into their age-31 and age-30 seasons, respectively. Soto is already getting $23MM this year and will get another raise via arbitration for 2024 before hitting the open market at an exceptionally young age. It’s seems well within the realm of possibility that he ends up getting more than what he walked away from.

Some Padre fans have expressed concern that Soto isn’t living up to the hype so far, as his production was a bit diminished after the trade and he’s off to a slow start here in 2023. However, the underlying numbers suggest he’s due for some positive regression. He still walked more than he struck out after coming to San Diego and the same is true again here this year. His Statcast page is still bright red, meaning there’s no reason to suspect his .185 batting average on balls in play so far this year will stay more than 100 points below his career BABIP of .306. Even with that terrible luck so far, his .175/.366/.365 batting line amounts to an above-average 106 wRC+. Once the baseball gods start smiling on him again, he should move closer to his career batting line of .283/.422/.521 and 152 wRC+.

Despite all the attention and the doubters, Soto maintains he’s in a good place. “I feel great right now,” he tells Apstein. “Forget about all this stuff. Now I’m focused on the San Diego Padres.” The club is out to a slow start, currently at 8-11, but once Soto’s fortunes change for the better, that should apply to the club as well.

Turning to other parts of the roster, the club will also be getting a boost to its rotation soon as Joe Musgrove is set to make his season debut on Saturday, per Dennis Lin of The Athletic. The righty suffered a fractured toe in a freak weight room accident back in February and has been working his way back to health since. He’s coming off arguably his best season yet, as he posted a 2.93 ERA over 30 starts last year, as well as a 2.89 ERA in three postseason starts. The club has been employing a six-man rotation recently and will have to decide who gets bumped to make room for Musgrove. Yu Darvish and Blake Snell are locks to stick, with one of Michael Wacha, Ryan Weathers, Seth Lugo or Nick Martinez in line for a move to the bullpen or the farm. Weathers is the only one of that group that can be optioned to the minors, though he also has a 2.81 ERA in the early going while Martinez and Wacha are at 5.60 and 6.06, respectively.

The bullpen could also be in line for a reinforcement in the near future, as lefty Drew Pomeranz started a rehab assignment last night. He tossed one inning for the Single-A Lake Elsinore Storm, getting a flyout, a groundout and a strikeout. Signed to a four-year, $34MM deal going into 2020, he posted a 1.45 ERA in the first year of the deal and a 1.75 in the second, striking out more than a third of batters faced in that time. Unfortunately, he required flexor tendon surgery in August of 2021 and hasn’t been on a big league mound since. Starting a rehab assignment now doesn’t necessarily mean a return is imminent, as he started a similar rehab stint in August of last year but renewed soreness shut him down. A full offseason didn’t even get him to 100%, as he dealt with inflammation during Spring Training and is only now properly ramping up. It’s hard to know what to expect from him at this point, but getting anywhere close to his excellent results from a few years ago would be most welcome.

And turning quickly to ownership, the club’s recent change in organizational attitude coincided with Peter Seidler purchasing a majority stake in the club in late 2020. It seems he plans on sticking around for a long time while continuing to run out a competitive roster. “There will never be another fire sale in San Diego, and I expect my family to own the franchise for another 50, 75 years,” he said at an event yesterday, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic. “Hopefully go for more, I’ll talk from the grave.”

The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast Is Back!

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The MLB Trade Rumors Podcast, last heard in 2016 hosted by the esteemed Jeff Todd, has relaunched!  Simon Hampton is now your host, and we’re very excited to bring the new show to you every week.

Episode 1 is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well; use this link to find the show on Spotify and this one for Apple.  You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Anthony Franco to discuss a wide range of topics around the baseball world:

  • An early look at the trade deadline possibilities, particularly focusing on Shohei Ohtani and what it make take for the Angels to listen to offers on the two-way star (3:19)
  • Jake Cronenworth signed a seven-year, $80MM extension with the Padres, so what does that mean for San Diego’s chances at extending other players such as Juan Soto, Josh Hader and Blake Snell? (7:31)
  • It’s easy to over-react to results in the first week of the season, so at what point is it reasonable to become concerned with a team’s performance? And what about the players? (12:30)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Could the Marlins match up with the Yankees on a trade involving Oswald Peraza? And which of Miami’s pitchers could be in play at the deadline? (16:56)
  • Will the Cardinals make a move to bolster their rotation at some stage this season? And if so, which players could be in play? (21:24)
  • The Dodgers took a step back this winter, so how aggressive will they be at the deadline this year? And are they clearing payroll space for a crack at Shohei Ohtani? (26:09)

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Padres Injury Notes: Engel, Soto, Nola, Bogaerts, Musgrove

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Adam Engel suffered a hamstring injury during Thursday’s Cactus League game, putting his availability for the Padres’ Opening Day roster in severe jeopardy.  “Hamstrings can be a little bit [tricky] so we’ll see how he progresses, but…I think it’d be tough for him to make another game here in Spring Training,” Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters, including Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Engel’s progress was already slowed by a calf strain earlier in camp, and the outfielder has played in only six Spring Training games.  Between this lack of ramp-up period and the time it’ll take for Engel to recover from his current hamstring issue, a stint on the 10-day injured list certainly looks probable for Engel at the beginning of the season.

The Padres signed Engel to a one-year deal this winter with an eye towards using the veteran as a fourth outfielder, given Engel’s strong track record as a defender.  With Fernando Tatis Jr. still having to serve 20 games left on his PED suspension, Engel was tapped for a good amount of playing time in April, but it is now possible Tatis might get back onto the field before Engel does, depending on the severity of the hamstring issue.

In better news for San Diego’s outfield, Juan Soto might be able to avoid the IL in the wake of the mild oblique strain that sidelined him last weekend.  The Padres have naturally been very careful with Soto, but he was making some light throws in the outfield and taking dry swings yesterday, in a positive step this early in his recovery process from any kind of oblique problem.

With some cautious optimism about Soto and now some doubt over Engel, it still seems as though the Padres will have at least one outfield job available on the Opening Day roster.  Jose Azocar and Brandon Dixon are the internal choices, and perhaps more than one of David Dahl, Tim Lopes, and Rougned Odor could have their minor league contracts selected to the roster.  To help his chances of making the team, Odor recently saw some action in left field, despite never playing in the outfield before during his pro career.

Like Soto, Austin Nola might also be in the Opening Day lineup despite an ominous late-spring setback, as Nola was hit in the face by a Michael Fulmer pitch on Sunday and suffered a fractured nose and three stitches.  While that diagnosis isn’t exactly good, Nola was “so glad it’s what it is and not the eyes, a concussion or any of that stuff,” he told MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell.  The catcher might now even get back into game action before Spring Training is over, as Nola caught Seth Lugo’s bullpen session yesterday.

Xander Bogaerts received a cortisone shot in his left wrist, and isn’t expected to play again until Sunday.  As Melvin told Sanders and company, “there’s no concern, [Bogaerts] has one of these a spring,” due to periodic soreness in his wrist.  The prized signing of San Diego’s offseason, Bogaerts is in no danger of missing his first Opening Day in a Padres uniform.

One player guaranteed to miss some time is Joe Musgrove, who suffered an unfortunate fluke injury in late February when a weight-room accident resulted in a broken left big toe.  The Padres ace’s recovery timeline has become more clear as he has been rehabbing the injury, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes (via Twitter) that Musgrove will hit another important checkpoint when he pitches in a minor league spring game on Monday.

The right-hander will miss relatively little time, as Acee notes that Musgrove is being tentatively scheduled to make his season debut on either April 11 or April 16.  However, the Padres still face a rotation crunch with Musgrove sidelined and Yu Darvish still properly ramping up after his usual spring routine was interrupted by the World Baseball Classic.  As a result, San Diego might deploy a six-man rotation to help manage arms during an unusually busy early schedule — the Padres play games on 24 of the first 25 days of the new season.  Blake Snell, Nick Martinez, Michael Wacha, Jay Groome, Lugo, and Darvish would comprise the rotation until Musgrove’s return could shuffle things up.

Padres Notes: Soto, Nola, Pomeranz

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Padres manager Bob Melvin spoke today with reporters, including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, regarding the status of superstar outfielder Juan Soto, who was pulled from a minor league spring training game on Sunday thanks to a mild left oblique strain. Melvin noted that Soto is set to undergo an MRI, but reaffirmed the club’s belief that the injury is a mild one, and noted that a return to action in time for Opening Day next week is not out of the question.

That’s about as good of news as Padres fans can get ahead of an MRI, as any absence from Soto would be a serious blow for a Padres club that will already play the first twenty games of its season without fellow phenom Fernando Tatis Jr. while he completes his suspension for PED usage. That being said, even if Soto were to begin the season on the injured list, the club would still be set to run out a star-studded roster on Opening Day that includes the likes of Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, and Josh Hader.

In the event that Soto does miss time, the likes of Jose Azocar and Adam Engel could benefit in terms of playing time as long as he is out. If Soto were to miss enough time that Tatis returns before him, it seems reasonable to expect that Matt Carpenter, currently slated to play right field while Tatis is suspended, would slide over to left to cover for the remainder of Soto’s absence.

More from Padres camp…

  • Acee also notes that catcher Austin Nola, who suffered a fractured nose after getting hit in the face with a pitch on Sunday, is expected to return to the field tomorrow for “light work”, with an Opening Day start behind the plate still on the table. Nola, a solid bat-first catcher coming off his first below average offensive season (89 wRC+ in 110 games) in 2022, figures to be the club’s starting catcher this year. San Diego is fortunate to have a quality backup in the form of Luis Campusano should Nola miss any time. If Nola requires a brief stint on the injured list, Brett Sullivan stands to back up as the only other catcher on the 40-man roster unless the Padres decide to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate a non-roster invitee such as Pedro Severino.
  • In less fortunate injury news, Dennis Lin of The Athletic notes that lefty reliever Drew Pomeranz is set to miss opening day after feeling some inflammation in his elbow. Pomeranz has been excellent for the Padres when healthy, posting a sterling 1.62 ERA over the past two seasons, but this latest setback adds to the 34 year old’s lengthy injury history that led him to pitch just 44 1/3 innings in that same timeframe. Fortunately for San Diego, Josh Hader and Robert Suarez are certainly a capable tandem for late-inning duties to open the season.

Juan Soto Day-To-Day With Mild Oblique Strain

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Juan Soto suffered what the Padres described as a mild left oblique strain during a minor league game today.  Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune hears from a team source that the the Padres are being “careful” with the injury and that the removal was precautionary, which is naturally understandable given the risk involved in any oblique injury.

For now, Soto is listed as day-to-day, and the outfielder is sure to undergo a battery of tests to investigate the exact nature of the problem.  While oblique injuries can vary greatly in severity, it’s rare to see a player suffer even a small strain (or less than a Grade 1 type of strain) and not miss any time whatsoever.  It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Padres place Soto on the injured list as a further precaution, just to give him an extra 10 days (at minimum) at the start of the season to both get healthy and to get fully ramped up.

Soto was limited earlier in Spring Training by a minor calf problem and he only just returned to San Diego’s camp after playing with the Dominican Republic’s team in the World Baseball Classic.  Soto was on fire during WBC play and during his limited Spring Training action, so he might not need a lot of time to get ready once he is healthy.  However, Acee notes that Soto was playing in the minor league game in order to get some extra work in following his WBC stint.

Losing Soto for any amount of time obviously isn’t ideal for the Padres, especially considering that the team has already been visited by the injury bug during camp.  Joe Musgrove is expected to miss at least his first two start of the season due to a fractured toe, Adrian Morejon is likely also IL-bound due to elbow inflammation, and just earlier today, Austin Nola suffered a possible broken nose after being hit in the face with a pitch.

Adam Engel was slowed by a calf injury earlier in Spring Training, but he is on pace to be ready for Opening Day and possibly for a larger slice of playing time if Soto is sidelined.  Jose Azocar and minor league signing David Dahl could now both make the team, and join with Matt Carpenter (projected for right field duty) and starting center fielder Trent Grisham in the Padres’ outfield mix.  Fernando Tatis Jr. will also join this group and take over a starting role, but not until he serves the final 20 games of his PED suspension.

A number of other non-roster invitees (i.e. Rangel Ravelo, Tim Lopes, Alfonso Rivas, Max Schrock, Preston Tucker, Brandon Dixon, Luis Liberato) have varying levels of MLB experience and at least some experience in the outfield, so they could also factor into San Diego’s plans.  The Padres could also certainly add to this group with other minor league signings or perhaps a higher-level trade in the event that Soto’s oblique strain is more severe than it seems.

Padres Likely To Explore Extension Talks With Josh Hader, Juan Soto This Spring

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The Padres achieved their top priority of the spring over the weekend, agreeing to an 11-year, $350MM deal with Manny Machado to keep him from retesting the free agent market next offseason. That came on the heels of a summer deal for Joe Musgrove and a recent extension with Yu Darvish.

Even after that series of transactions, the Friars have a handful of key players slated to hit the open market within the next two years. Last summer’s marquee deadline acquisitions — Josh Hader and Juan Soto — are both deep into their arbitration seasons. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that San Diego is likely to soon be in contact with both players’ camps to discuss possible extension frameworks. Dennis Lin of the Athletic similarly wrote this week the Friars were likely to take a run at extension talks with Soto.

There hasn’t been as much speculation regarding possible Hader negotiations. It’s not a surprise that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office plan to at least check in with the four-time All-Star, though. Hader is one season away from the open market and joins Blake Snell as the top impending free agents on the San Diego roster.

29 next month, Hader has a chance of securing a record-setting deal for a reliever. He owns a sterling 2.71 ERA with an eye-popping 43.2% strikeout rate over parts of six big league campaigns. No pitcher (minimum 200 innings) has punched out hitters at a higher rate since Hader came into the league. He’s three percentage points clear of second-place finisher Edwin Díaz. Hader also leads the league in SIERA (2.13) and swinging strike percentage (19.2%) over that stretch.

Díaz is second in both those categories as well. The Mets’ closer became the first reliever in league history to top the hundred million dollar mark this offseason, returning to Queens on a five-year, $102MM pact days before free agency opened. Díaz signed that deal in advance of his age-29 campaign and coming off one of the most dominant seasons by a closer in recent memory. He fanned more than half his opponents en route to a 1.31 ERA in 62 innings.

Hader, on the other hand, is coming off arguably the worst season of his career. He allowed more than five earned runs per nine, including a disappointing 7.31 mark in 19 appearances after the Padres acquired him from Milwaukee. Hader was a bit homer-prone early in the season with the Brewers. While he got that under control in San Diego, his walk rate jumped a few percentage points towards year’s end.

Despite that wobbly conclusion, Hader still enters extension negotiations with strong leverage. He’ll play the upcoming season on a hefty $14.1MM contract after avoiding arbitration. The lanky southpaw remains one of the sport’s highest-upside relief weapons. Even in his relative down year, Hader finished sixth among relievers who threw 50+ innings with a 37% strikeout rate. He placed 18th in swinging strike rate and averaged a personal-high 97.4 MPH on his sinker.

Hader’s youth and career résumé still position him as the favorite for the largest contract among relievers in next winter’s class. Díaz’s deal serves as a reference for the kind of money Hader could land if he had a vintage platform season. The New York righty had some ups and downs in the years leading up to 2022 — including a 5.59 ERA in 2019 and a fine but not overwhelming 3.45 mark in ’21 — before reaching new heights last season.

Considering his hefty arbitration salaries and proximity to free agency, Hader isn’t under pressure to sign for below-market rates this spring. He told Heyman he’d “definitely” be open to extension talks but didn’t offer any indication he’d take a hometown discount. “It’s a great place to be, but at the end of the day, business is business,” Hader said.

Locking up Soto would be an even more challenging endeavor, of course. The three-time Silver Slugger is playing this season on a $23MM arbitration contract. He’s likely to approach or top $30MM for his final arbitration season in 2024 and is trending towards free agency over the 2024-25 offseason. Soto would hit the market before his age-26 campaign and is generally expected to command the largest guarantee in league history (although the intervening potential free agency of Shohei Ohtani could first set a new high-water mark).

Soto has already declined an offer for what would’ve been the largest deal in MLB history. The Nationals reportedly offered a 15-year, $440MM pact last summer. Soto passed, leading Washington to pivot to trade discussions that’d eventually culminate in one of the biggest deadline deals ever. Soto’s performance in San Diego after the trade — .238/.388/.390 with more walks than strikeouts through 228 plate appearances — was disappointing by his massive standards but still markedly above average.

It stands to reason the Padres would at least have to beat the $440MM the Nats were prepared to offer in order to convince Soto to bypass a trip to the open market. How high he and his representatives are aiming isn’t clear, though Soto told Heyman his camp is “open to talking” with San Diego brass. However, he also added that “every player wants to get a try at free agency and a chance to decide where they want to go and where is best for their family.”

The Padres project for the third-highest luxury tax payroll in the majors this season, with Roster Resource forecasting them just under $275MM at present. Long-term deals for Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Musgrove, Darvish and Robert Suarez already have upwards of $130MM on the books through 2027. Tatis, Bogaerts and Machado alone will count for nearly $100MM annually between 2028-33. That’s plenty of future money tied up, though it also reinforces how willing owner Peter Seidler and the front office have been to commit to star talent.

Padres Notes: Bench, Musgrove, Payroll, Machado

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Following San Diego’s addition of second baseman Rougned Odor on a minor league deal yesterday, the competition to be part of the Padres Opening Day bench gained a new entrant. As MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell notes, the absence of Fernando Tatis Jr. while he completes his PED suspension and the possibility that outfielder Adam Engel isn’t ready for Opening Day as he works his way back from a calf strain open up new possibilities for players hoping to break camp as a member of the bench in San Diego.

One of the four spots on the Padres Opening Day bench is certain to be reserved for backup catcher Luis Campusano. As for the last three spots, Odor seems likely to compete with outfielders David Dahl and Jose Azocar, and utility player Brandon Dixon. Odor provides the least versatility of those options, as all but 259 of his career innings in the field have come at second base. By contrast, Dahl and Azocar both have experience at all three outfield spots, while Dixon has played all four corners and second base during his career. Still, Cassavell notes that Odor’s status as a lefty bat could give him, (and, presumably, Dahl) a leg up on earning a spot on the bench entering the season.

Assuming no additional injuries complicate matters, Matt Carpenter will shift to the bench once Tatis is eligible to return after the first 20 games of the season, while Engel will join the bench as soon as he is healthy. At that point, there will only be one spot still available on the bench in San Diego for the aforementioned quartet. Azocar, Dahl, and Dixon all have options remaining, though Odor does not.

More from San Diego…

  • Joe Musgrove, who is currently out of action with a fractured toe, is expected to miss at the least the first two starts of the regular season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Acee notes that it’s possible that without Musgrove’s contributions, the Padres may opt to go with a five man rotation to open the season, preferring to add depth to a bullpen that could be taxed more than usual without the durable right-hander pitching deep into games. Ryan Weathers, Adrian Morejon, Brent Honeywell Jr., and Cole Hamels are among the pitchers who could take Musgrove’s spot on the roster, though whether that spot will earn them a role in the bullpen or the rotation is currently unclear.
  • Even after signing Manny Machado to his second $300MM+ contract, the Padres appear to have no interest in slowing down, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Given Padres owner Peter Seidler’s already unprecedented investment in the big league club for an organization of their market size, it’s difficult to predict where the limits on spending could be. Lin notes that the backloaded nature of Machado’s new 11-year, $350MM deal with San Diego could help the club pursue an extension with fellow superstar, Juan Soto. It could also assist in a planned pursuit of two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani should he hit free agency following the 2023 season as expected, even in spite of the fact that a deal with either player could cost even more than it did to extend Machado. Discussing his recent extension, Machado explains that a candid conversation with Seidler led to the contract eventually being hammered out. Seidler, for his part, says the Padres are “willing and excited about continuing to sign great players.”

Latest On Padres’ Outfield Plans

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In comments to reporters (including Kevin Acee of the San Diego Post-Tribune), manager Bob Melvin confirmed his plans for the Padres’ outfield in 2023. After spending all of 2021 and 2022 in right field, superstar Juan Soto will be shifting back to left field, where he spent most of the 2018-20 seasons, for the upcoming campaign. Soto graded out well as a defender in right over the course of the 2021 season, but defensive metrics soured on his glovework in 2022, when he rated as the second-worst defender in all of baseball by Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric with an OAA of -16.

Elsewhere in the outfield, Fernando Tatis Jr. figures to be a regular starter once he has finished serving his suspension for PED usage. Tatis, of course, had primarily played shortstop to this point in his career, but Xander Bogaerts now figures to fill that position on the diamond following the Padres signing him to an 11-year deal earlier this offseason. With Tatis now displaced, he appears poised to get regular starts in right field once he’s eligible to return in late April.

While right field figures to be where Tatis finds most of his playing time, Acee notes the star slugger has his eye on another position: center field. While Tatis is certainly athletic enough to handle center field, having already logged 56 innings at the position in his career, it seems unlikely that he would displace incumbent center fielder Trent Grisham, who won a Gold Glove for his work up the middle in 2022. That being said, Grisham struggled at the plate in 2022, slashing a meager .184/.284/.341 (83 wRC+) in 524 plate appearances.

Given Grisham’s offensive struggles, it stands to reason that Tatis could still slide over to center on occasion, opening up right field for a player like Matt Carpenter, Jose Azocar, or Brandon Dixon. This would make particular sense against left-handed pitchers, over whom either Azocar or Dixon would hold a platoon advantage in contrast to Grisham’s same-handed bat.

For his part, Melvin was non-committal as to where Tatis will play once he can return from his suspension, noting the club has to get through not only Spring Training, but the first 20 games of the regular season before Tatis can play anywhere. That being said, he did admit he could see Tatis moving around the field to play multiple positions as necessary, leaving open the possibility Tatis could get some starts in center over the course of the 2023 season.

Each MLB Team’s Players On WBC Rosters

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The World Baseball Classic is returning this year, the first time since 2017. The quadrennial event was supposed to take place in 2021 but was scuttled by the pandemic, now returning after a six-year absence. Rosters for the tournament were announced today and those can be found at this link. Here is a breakdown of which players from each MLB team are set to take participate. Quick caveat that this list is fluid and might be changed as more information becomes available.

Without further ado…

Angels

Astros

Athletics

Blue Jays

Braves

Brewers

Cardinals

Cubs

Diamondbacks

Dodgers

Giants

Guardians

Marlins

Mariners

Mets

Nationals

Orioles

Padres

Phillies

Pirates

Rangers

Rays

Red Sox

Reds

Rockies

Royals

Tigers

Twins

White Sox

Yankees

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