2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition
Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.
For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.
At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.
There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.
Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.
Position Players
- Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
- Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
- Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
- Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
- Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
- Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
- Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
- Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.
Pitchers
- Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
- Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
- Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
- Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
- Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
- Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
- Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
- Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15 ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
- Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
- Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.
AL Notes: Astros, Rizzo, Turner
Astros right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. began playing catch yesterday, and threw 30 times per reporters including the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome. In addition, Rome also notes that slugger Yordan Alvarez hit soft toss today as he builds toward game action after being delayed this spring by hand soreness.
These positive health updates are excellent news for the Astros. Alvarez is among the very best hitters in all of baseball, and any time missed by the slugger would surely be a massive blow to the Astros offense as they attempt to win a second straight World Series following their 2022 championship run. McCullers, meanwhile, is expected to begin the season on the injured list, but a swift return to action would be a major boon for Houston, which lacks much starting depth beyond unproven prospects and Brandon Bielak, who is currently slated for a long relief role in the big league bullpen.
More from around the American League…
- Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters, including MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch, that first baseman Anthony Rizzo is dealing with a “cranky” back, though Rizzo is expected to return to game action Tuesday. Rizzo, who will play this season at age 33, has battled back injuries throughout his career and has had to sit more frequently in recent years to manage the ailment. He underwent an epidural last September due to the lingering issue, though it appears that procedure has not completely solved his struggles. Despite his occasional injury woes, Rizzo has been among the most consistent bats in the league for over a decade now, posting above average marks by measure of wRC+ in eleven straight seasons while playing at least 80% of his club’s games since the beginning of the 2013 season.
- Justin Turner was among the bigger acquisitions for the Red Sox this offseason, and the veteran seems to be progressing well after getting hit in the face with a pitch last week. Turner told reporters, including MLB.com’s Ian Browne, that he had his stitches removed today and is set to return to baseball activities ahead of the schedule provided by manager Alex Cora this past Wednesday. Turner, 38, is expected to primarily play DH for the Red Sox when he returns to action, which Turner expects to be as soon as Opening Day. The longtime Dodgers was a late bloomer, having his breakout season at age 29 in Los Angeles, but since then has been a stable bat with a well above average OPS of .866 in 1,075 games since the start of the 2014 season.
AL East Notes: Armstrong, Jones, Turner
Rays righty Shawn Armstrong won’t be ready for the start of the season, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Armstrong, who’s dealing with a neck injury, is “highly unlikely to be ready” for Opening Day, manager Kevin Cash tells Topkin. The team is still working to ascertain a more specific diagnosis.
Armstrong, 32, bounced between four teams from 2019-22 but twice found his way to the Rays and, in 2022, finally had the breakout showing of which several clubs clearly believed him to be capable. In 55 innings with Tampa Bay, he posted a solid 3.60 ERA with even more encouraging strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates of 26%, 6% and 49.7% — all of which are better than the league average. Armstrong’s heater sat at a career-best 95.6 mph with Tampa Bay in 2022, and his 12.3% swinging-strike rate, and 38% opponents’ chase rate both suggest he could have more strikeouts in the tank.
Armstrong was a lock to make the club, both based on last year’s performance and his lack of minor league options, so he’ll be placed on the Major League injured list at some point. Candidates to replace him in the big league bullpen to begin the season include righties Calvin Faucher and Rule 5 selection Kevin Kelly, both of whom are on the 40-man roster. Kelly would have to hold his spot on the MLB roster or be offered back to the Guardians upon clearing waivers. The Rays are expected to select the contract of non-roster righty Trevor Kelley later this month, and other non-roster veterans who’ll be vying for the open spot include Heath Hembree, Kyle Crick and Ryan Burr — among many others.
Some other notes from the division…
- The Rays are going to begin taking a look at shortstop prospect Greg Jones out in the outfield, tweets Topkin. The 2019 first-rounder has played exclusively at short in his minor league career to date, but the Rays place an emphasis on defensive versatility in all their players and the team has Wander Franco entrenched at shortstop. Jones, who was selected to the 40-man roster over the winter, ranked as the No. 91 prospect in baseball prior to the 2022 season, per MLB.com, but his stock dipped a bit with last year’s .238/.318/.392 showing in 358 Double-A plate appearances. Jones appeared in 79 games, but that was actually a career-high, as he’s been plagued by both shoulder and leg injuries in his young career. FanGraphs credits Jones with 80-grade speed, and Baseball America lauds his athleticism, writing that some scouts believe he can be a plus defender in center field. Adding some outfield work to his skill set will only create further opportunities for the 25-year-old switch-hitter to work his way onto the big league roster.
- The Red Sox got a scare earlier this week when infielder Justin Turner was hit in the face with a pitch. Though the scene was quite scary to look at, with a trainer holding a towel to Turner’s bloody face, it appears for now as though Turner has avoided any kind of nightmare scenario. Turner’s wife later reported that the slugger required 16 stitches but didn’t fracture anything. Manager Alex Cora provided an update today, relayed by Mike Monaco of NESN, saying that Turner will probably get those stitches removed in two weeks. With just over three weeks until Opening Day, there could be some time there for Turner to make it back on the field, but Cora says it’s too early to think about that. It’s possible Turner might still miss a bit of time, but given how gruesome the scene was to watch, a small absence would likely be considered a good outcome.
Justin Turner Removed From Game After Being Hit In Face With Pitch
5:20 pm: Turner’s wife Kourtney took to Twitter to thank people for all the kinds words that were shared today. In the message, she relays that Turner had 16 stitches and a lot of swelling, but no fractures and clear scans.
2:10 pm: The Sox provided reporters an update on Turner, with Abraham among those to relay it (Twitter links). Turner is receiving treatment for soft tissue injuries and is being monitored for a concussion. The club also says he is stable, alert and in good spirits given the circumstances. More updates will follow after further testing.
1:50 pm: Red Sox infielder Justin Turner was removed from today’s spring game after being hit in the face with a pitch, per multiple reports. Turner was able to walk off the field but appeared to be bleeding quite a bit, with a trainer holding a towel to hiss face. Tom Caron of NESN was among those who shared video of the incident on Twitter, for those who aren’t squeamish and want to view the plate appearance in question. The severity of Turner’s injury isn’t known at this time but Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe reports that Turner was taken to hospital in an ambulance.
With so little info about the extent of Turner’s injuries, we can’t know what to expect in the near future in terms of an absence. It’s possible that there will be on-field implications for the club at some point, but for now, the primary concern will be his health. Turner has been in the majors for over a decade, is now in his fifth different organization and seems to be generally respected and beloved throughout the league. There will surely be dozens of people throughout the game holding their breath until more information is forthcoming.
Turner, 38, had been a mainstay of the Dodgers for many years. He broke out with that club in 2014 and was with them through last year. They could have retained him for 2023 via a $16MM club option but they went for the $2MM buyout instead. Turner became a free agent and garnered interest from the Marlins, Diamondbacks and Twins before signing with the Red Sox. The deal is officially for two years and $21.7MM, though with a complicated structure. He will make $8.3MM this season before deciding between a $13.4MM player option for 2024 and a $6.7MM buyout. There’s also $1MM in potential incentives available to him based on plate appearances, getting $200K for 480, 500, 520, 540 and 560.
Turner has primarily been a third baseman in his career but spent about half his time as the designated hitter for the Dodgers last year. The Red Sox have Rafael Devers at the hot corner and seemed likely to deploy Turner as a DH or perhaps spelling rookie Triston Casas at first base on occasion. Those plans may have to change if Turner is significantly hurt, though the Red Sox and Turner’s many friends throughout the game will be hoping that’s not the case.
NL Notes: Mancini, Doolittle, Martinez, Taylor
Cubs right-fielder Seiya Suzuki is currently sidelined with a “moderate” oblique strain. The club has yet to provide an estimated timeline for his absence, but Suzuki has already withdrawn from the World Baseball Classic. It’s unclear if he will still be injured when Opening Day rolls around, but Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports that the club is looking to use Trey Mancini as the right fielder for any time Suzuki needs to miss.
Mancini was primarily a first baseman coming up through the minors but starting playing the outfield corners with the Orioles due to Chris Davis having the cold corner spoken for. That’s allowed Mancini to log 2,480 1/3 innings of outfield experience, but most of that came in the 2017-2019 period. Mancini missed the 2020 season while in treatment for colon cancer but has primarily been at first base since his return. That was the only position he played in 2021 and he only spent 248 innings on the grass last year.
Mancini’s outfield defense hasn’t been especially well graded in his career, but it’s possible it would only be a part-time solution anyhow, with Suzuki eventually coming back to retake the position. In the meantime, the alignment could allow the club to have both Mancini and Eric Hosmer in the lineup, with the designated hitter slot available for one of the club’s many younger infielders. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner should be in the middle with Hosmer at first, but the third base and utility/backup infield positions figure to be shared by Patrick Wisdom, Nick Madrigal, Christopher Morel, Zach McKinstry, Miles Mastrobuoni and Edwin Ríos.
Some other notes from around the National League…
- Lefty Sean Doolittle is in camp with the Nationals on a minor league deal, looking to return to health after he dealt with an elbow sprain last year that eventually led to an internal brace procedure. It was reported a few weeks ago that he seemed on track to be ready for Opening Day, but that might no longer be the case. Doolittle tells Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com that there was no real setback, just that the club’s medical team advised him to take a better-safe-than-sorry approach. “Nothing specifically happened,” Doolittle said. “I think when we started to look at what it was going to take to ramp up, and where I was at, I was ahead of schedule probably by almost a month. I did have some days when I was a little more sore than I had been throwing in the offseason. Nothing bad, but we started thinking about it. We’re so far ahead, let’s slow it down a little bit.” It seems that he may no longer be an option for Opening Day, but the slowed-down approach is fine by him. “Let’s be smart about it. It’s not a race,” he added. Manager Dave Martinez is onboard with the plan as well. “When he’s ready, we want him to be 100 percent ready,” Martinez said. “We need left-handed pitchers in our bullpen. When he’s healthy, he’ll be that guy.” Doolittle had a 3.02 career ERA through the end of 2019 but has missed significant time in two of the past three years, in addition to posting a 4.53 ERA in 2021. The Nats’ only southpaw relievers on the 40-man are Matt Cronin and Jose Ferrer, neither of whom have MLB experience yet. Once Doolittle is fully healthy, he should have a path open to get back on the roster.
- It was reported in mid-December that the Red Sox were interested in a reunion with slugger J.D. Martinez, but he agreed to a deal with the Dodgers that very same day while the Sox agreed with Justin Turner the day after. However, it doesn’t seem as though Boston’s interest was ever that strong, at least according to Martinez, who spoke with Rob Bradford of WEEI about the situation. “The way they made it sound was that they were in on it,” Martinez said. “During the season we never talked. Just basic talk with Chaim, and stuff. It was one of those things where we never moved forward with it.” The alignment of his deal and Turner’s doesn’t seem to have been coincidental. “A situation occurred where at the time they had the offer out to JT… Everybody talks… This was an offer that came up seeing if it was something I was interested in doing. Obviously, it was a little bit of a pay cut, but if I held up maybe I could have gotten more. We were confident about that. But at the same time I wanted a team that was going to be in October, be in the swing of things all year and give me a chance to win.” MLBTR predicted Martinez to secure a two-year, $30MM, so it’s possible he’s correct that he could have gotten more than the one-year, $10MM deal he ultimately agreed to. However, it seems he placed a priority on competition by moving from a Boston club that won 78 games last year to the 111-win Dodgers.
- Sticking with the Dodgers, they will have to consider backup plans at shortstop now that Gavin Lux is out for the year. Miguel Rojas will now be the atop the depth chart there, with super utility player Chris Taylor behind him. Manager Dave Roberts tells Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times that Taylor will play shortstop about 20-25% of the time. Taylor says he’s ready for the move, having started an infield throwing program prior to the Lux injury. “I’ve been throwing from the infield and the outfield,” Taylor said. “I was trying to anticipate something happening. So I was prepared.” Getting part-time work at shortstop will be nothing new for Taylor. He only got one inning there last year but averaged more than 250 innings per year over the previous four seasons. He’ll be looking to bounce back from a down year at the plate, as he missed a month with a foot fracture and hit .221/.304/.373 for a wRC+ of 93. Moving Taylor in from the grass on occasion will subtract from an outfield mix that’s a bit more uncertain for the club than in recent years. Mookie Betts should be excellent in right, with Trayce Thompson, David Peralta and Jason Heyward potentially taking the other spots, as younger players like James Outman and Andy Pages try to break in.
Details On Justin Turner’s Red Sox Contract
The Red Sox finalized their contract with veteran infielder Justin Turner this afternoon. Initial reports on the deal, which was agreed upon in December, were a bit variable.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post specified the details this afternoon (on Twitter). It’s officially a two-year, $21.7MM guarantee that comes with an average annual value of $10.85MM. The deal also contains up to $1MM in incentives that’d max out if he reaches 560 plate appearances. As previously reported, Turner will have the opportunity to opt out after the 2023 campaign.
The Vayner Sports client will make an $8.3MM salary this year. At season’s end, he’ll have to decide on either a $13.4MM player option or a $6.7MM buyout to head back to free agency. That lofty buyout means Turner would collect $15MM for one season if he opts out, and he’d only have to top $6.7MM on the open market to come out ahead financially. Matching or topping the .278/.350/.438 line he posted through 532 plate appearances during his final season with the Dodgers should allow him to fairly easily beat that figure.
The two-time All-Star spent nine seasons in Southern California after his first few years as a role player with the Orioles and Mets. He took to Twitter this evening to thank the Dodgers organization and its fans after officially putting pen to paper with Boston.
With Rafael Devers and Triston Casas set to man the corner infield, Turner seems likely to spend a decent amount of time at designated hitter in 2023. He’ll be replacing J.D. Martinez, who coincidentally landed in Los Angeles on a one-year free agent deal.
Marlins Have Pursued Triston Casas In Trade Talks With Red Sox
The Red Sox and Marlins have been discussing trade scenarios, with recent reporting indicating the Sox have have some interest in veteran infielders Joey Wendle and Miguel Rojas. It seems that they have also discussed a much more significant trade as well, with the Fish attempting to acquire young first baseman Triston Casas, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald.
Since Wendle and Rojas are both in their 30s and impending free agents, their trade value would be fairly modest. Casas, however, is turning 23 years old later this month, still has six remaining years of control and is generally considered one of the top 50 prospects in the game. If he were to be involved in any trade, it would surely go beyond a deal for Rojas or Wendle. The report from the Herald indicates Miami tried to pry Casas loose from Boston in discussions involving their starting pitchers.
There’s nothing to suggest that Boston is open to dealing Casas or ever gave serious consideration to the overtures coming from Miami. Still, it’s noteworthy that such a monumental deal has even been discussed. The Marlins have reportedly been trying to use their rotation surplus for a lineup boost for quite some time, but haven’t yet landed a deal to their liking. While ace Sandy Alcantara and top prospect Eury Pérez are reportedly off limits, the Fish seem to be willing to part with one of Pablo López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers or Edward Cabrera in a trade that would give them an impact bat and targeted Casas to be that guy.
The 26th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Casas mashed his way up the minor league ladder and reached the majors last year at the age of 22. He struck out in 24.2 percent of his trips to the plate, which was a bit above league average, but he also walked 20 percent of the time and launched five home runs in just 27 games. His lopsided .197/.358/.408 slash line resulted in a 120 wRC+, indicating he was 20 percent better than league average. That’s a very small sample size, but he’s also hit extremely well in the minors. In 72 Triple-A games last year, he hit .273/.382/.481 for a wRC+ of 127.
Though it makes sense that the Marlins would be interested in an exciting young player like that, it also makes sense that the Sox would want to hold onto him. Boston acquired Eric Hosmer from the Padres at last year’s deadline but then were seemingly impressed enough by the debut of Casas that they released Hosmer in December. To suddenly pivot and include Casas in a trade would be quite shocking.
The Marlins are also potentially interested in Ceddanne Rafaela, another highly-touted Boston prospect but one further away from the majors. The 22-year-old infielder/outfielder reached Double-A in 2022 and should be ready for exposure to Triple-A this year. He’s generally not ranked as highly as Casas but still has some hype, with Baseball America currently considering him the #78 prospect in all of baseball and MLB Pipeline placing him in the #96 slot. However, Jackson and Mish report that the Marlins are prioritizing improving the 2023 team, making Rafaela less interesting to them than the MLB-ready Casas.
The general framework of a trade isn’t totally inconceivable, in the sense that the Sox could surely use the starting pitching that the Marlins have to offer. Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years while recent signee Corey Kluber is about to turn 37 and has injury question marks of his own. Garrett Whitlock has worked well in relief but seems to be headed for a move to the rotation despite just nine career MLB starts to this point in his career. Nick Pivetta is arguably the most reliable member of the bunch but he’s never posted an ERA below 4.53. Adding some more insurance into that group would make sense but it seems the acquisition costs being discussed with Miami are steep.
Though the Marlins have enough starting pitching to interest the Red Sox and many other teams around the league, these talks perhaps give us some insight as to why a deal still hasn’t come to fruition, given their high asking price. With those talks yet to bear fruit, the club has been limited to free agency in their pursuit of upgrading an offense that produced an 88 wRC+ in 2022, good enough for 25th place in the league.
The club had known interest in José Abreu, with Jackson and Mish reporting they offered a two-year deal in the $40MM range. Instead, Abreu joined the Astros on a three-year deal with a similar salary, amounting to a $58.5MM guarantee. The Marlins then pivoted to Justin Turner and offered him a one-year deal worth $15MM. He instead joined the Red Sox on a deal that pays him $15MM in 2023 but also has a player option for 2024 that would push his guarantee to $21.7MM over two years. The Fish also reportedly offered Brandon Drury $19MM over two years but he ended up taking a slightly smaller $17MM deal with the Angels. It had been recently reported by Sam Blum and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that Drury grew up an Angels fan and also had a pre-existing relationship with Angels’ manager Phil Nevin from when Nevin was managing the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A team that Drury was on in 2015 and 2016. After missing out on Abreu, Turner and Drury, the Marlins then got a deal done with Jean Segura.
While Segura is a solid addition, it seems the Marlins are still trying to complete a significant trade that will make an even larger impact on their lineup. It doesn’t seem likely that Casas will be the one, but it gives some sense of the type of impact player they have their eyes on. With about six weeks remaining until Spring Training, it will be very interesting to see what other players they pursue and if they can line up on a deal.
Red Sox Agree To Sign Justin Turner
6:41PM: Another breakdown is provided by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, who reports that Turner will earn $15MM in 2023, and then $7.7MM in 2024 if he exercises his player option. Another $1MM is available to Turner in incentive bonuses in 2023, as he can unlock a series of $200K bonuses if he reaches at least 480 plate appearances.
6:01PM: Alex Speier of The Boston Globe has a different set of contract numbers, reporting that Turner will get only $8.3MM in 2023 and then $11.4MM in 2024 if he exercises the player option. Unless is a signing bonus or buyout also attached to the deal, Speier’s report would indicate that Turner is only receiving $19.7MM in guaranteed salary. The $8.3MM figure in 2023 in particular looks like a very nice bargain for the Red Sox on what could well end up being a one-year commitment to a 38-year-old player.
5:26PM: Turner will earn $14MM in 2023, Heyman reports, and the 2024 player option is worth $8MM.
4:54PM: The Red Sox have agreed to a deal with infielder Justin Turner, according to ESPN’s Joon Lee and Jeff Passan (Twitter links). The two-year contract will pay Turner slightly less than $22MM, and Turner can opt out of the deal following the 2023 season. Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter links) reported earlier today that Turner and the Sox were “looking close” to working out a contract, and that Boston was “heavily” pursuing Turner. Michael Marino of Fantrax reported yesterday that Turner and the Sox were in talks. Turner is represented by Vayner Sports.
The Marlins, Diamondbacks, Twins, and Dodgers are the other teams publicly known to have some interest in Turner, and Miami made Turner an offer earlier this week. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald described the Marlins’ offer as “competitive,” and though the exact details of the offer weren’t known, Heyman wrote that the Marlins seemed open to giving Turner the multi-year deal he is seeking in free agency.
Turner (who is entering his age-38 season) did find that multi-year pact, though at a significant drop in average annual value from the $17MM he received in his previous two-year deal with the Dodgers. MLBTR projected Turner for only one guaranteed year, but for $14MM. The year-to-year breakdown of the new contract isn’t yet known, and the opt-out could indicate that Turner’s camp might essentially view this deal as a one-year pact, with an eye towards getting a larger multi-year contract next after on the heels of a big platform year at Fenway Park.
That said, it isn’t as though Turner underachieved in 2022, as he posted a strong 123 wRC+ after batting .278/.350/.438 with 13 homers over 532 plate appearances with the Dodgers. However, given how Turner’s usual offseason routine was thrown off-kilter was the lockout and the shortened Spring Training, he might well imagine that he could’ve hit much better had it not been for a very slow start. Turner had only a .611 OPS over his first 243 PA of the year, but then caught fire with a .940 OPS over his last 289 PA.
Despite this production and Turner’s long track record of success over nine seasons in Los Angeles, the Dodgers opted to decline their $16MM club option on Turner for 2023, instead buying him out for $2MM. The move was seemingly made to give the Dodgers some extra flexibility in regards to their payroll and luxury tax situation, as the Dodgers could conceivably use any of Max Muncy, Chris Taylor, or prospect Miguel Vargas at third base. While president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman repeatedly stated that the door was still open for a possible reunion with Turner, the Dodgers’ signing of J.D. Martinez yesterday seemed to hint that L.A. had moved on.
As it turned out, the Dodgers and Red Sox will unofficially swap veteran hitters, with Martinez heading to Los Angeles and Turner coming to Boston. Turner brings more defensive utility than Martinez, as Turner still saw quite a bit of action at third base last season, basically splitting his time between third and DH. Rafael Devers of course has priority at the hot corner in Boston, but the Red Sox could now use Turner at third base when Devers (a subpar defender) is given a DH day of his own. Turner hasn’t played at first base since 2016, but he could also conceivably get some time at the cold corner as a right-handed hitting complement to rookie Triston Casas.
Xander Bogaerts‘ departure to the Padres has led to a lot of hard feelings from Red Sox Nation directed towards ownership and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. Though Bogaerts is certainly a major loss, Bloom’s plan is to fill the void with multiple players, as Bloom has stated that he wanted to add roughly 7-9 new faces to the roster. That long list of needs has now been partially filled by Turner, Masataka Yoshida, and relievers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Joely Rodriguez.
It would seem like starting pitching, catching, and the outfield remain on Bloom’s checklist, given the other players the Red Sox have at least checked in on this winter. But with Turner, the club reinforcements the corner infield/DH mix that Boston first looked to address by making a push for Jose Abreu, before Abreu signed with the Astros. The Red Sox made some room at first base by designing Eric Hosmer for assignment earlier this week, and though Hosmer was essentially a free player since the Padres were covering almost all of his remaining salary, the Sox were looking for either a more productive bat, or at least to more firmly clear a path for top prospect Casas.
After surpassing the luxury tax threshold in 2022, the Red Sox are thus far well under the $233MM threshold. That leaves Bloom with some opportunity to perhaps stay under the tax line, though given how Bloom and ownership were willing to pay the tax for even a rather remote shot at a playoff berth last year, one would imagine the Red Sox wouldn’t balk at paying another tax penalty for the right upside. Many of the offseason’s top free agents have already come off the board, but the Sox could still pursue other upgrades on the trade market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Twins Interested In Justin Turner, A.J. Pollock
Justin Turner and AJ Pollock are among the veteran free agents under consideration by the Twins as they look to further bolster their lineup, The Athletic’s Dan Hayes reports. Of note, Hayes’ piece was written yesterday prior to Minnesota’s signing of Joey Gallo to a one-year, $11MM contract — Gallo was also listed as a player the Twins were targeting, though his addition could change the equation for other pickups.
In particular, Pollock might no longer be on the radar given how Minnesota’s outfield picture was already pretty crowded even before Gallo joined the roster. Gallo, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Mark Contreras, Matt Wallner, Gilberto Celestino, and Kyle Garlick are all outfield options for 2023, plus the versatile Nick Gordon could also get some time on the grass when he isn’t in the infield.
That said, there has been some trade speculation surrounding Kepler, and Gallo’s deal might be some hint that the Twins could view Gallo as something of a Kepler replacement. Furthermore, Buxton, Celestino, and Garlick are the only right-handed hitters within that large outfield grouping, so acquiring Pollock would add more lineup balance and depth at all three outfield positions (though Pollock is no longer a defensive standout at any spot).
The Twins got a close look at Pollock when he played for the division rival White Sox last season, but they hardly saw the veteran at his best. Pollock’s 92 wRC+ was his lowest in a full season since 2013, and he hit only .245/.292/.389 over 527 plate appearances. Since he is entering his age-35 season, there is surely concern among some teams that Pollock has started to decline.
On the plus side, Pollock’s overall Statcast numbers were pretty decent, with an above-average strikeout rate and hard-contact numbers. While his .317 xwOBA was nothing special, his .297 wOBA indicates some degree of bad luck. Furthermore, Pollock’s overall batting line only took a hit against right-handed pitching — he had a .935 OPS in 133 PA against left-handed pitching in 2022, but a dreadful .593 OPS in 394 PA against righties.
As much as Pollock still looks capable of crushing southpaws, these drastic splits give pause to any club considering Pollock for an everyday job. The Twins’ plethora of left-handed outfielders would make a platoon or timeshare pretty easy, though it remains to be seen if Pollock would be open to a reduced role. Pollock already showed confidence in his ability to bounce back by declining his $13MM player option with Chicago and taking a $5MM, essentially making an $8MM bet on himself to find a larger deal on the open market.
There hasn’t been a lot of public interest in Pollock to date, while the Marlins, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks have all been linked to Turner, and at least one team (Miami) has made the infielder a proper offer. Turner and Pollock were teammates with the Dodgers from 2019-21, and while the 38-year-old Turner is the older of the two, he also figures to be more expensive given the larger interest and a better platform year.
Turner hit .278/.350/.438 with 13 homers over 532 PA with Los Angeles in 2022, essentially having a split season in terms of production. Turner had a measly .611 OPS over his first 243 PA of the year, but then snapped back into form and had a .940 OPS over his last 289 PA. Considering the unique circumstances (i.e. the lockout, and the shortened Spring Training) of the lead-up to the 2022 campaign, Turner’s slow start could be written off as a product of an unusual offseason.
With the universal DH coming to the National League last year, Turner basically split time between DH and third base. The Twins could deploy this same strategy, having Turner and Jose Miranda in a timeshare at third base (though both players at right-handed hitters) and using Turner at DH whenever Miranda is at the hot corner. Apart from one game at second base and one mop-up inning as a pitcher, Turner has played only third base since the start of the 2017 season, but he could theoretically factor into the first base mix as well.
Christian Vazquez‘s three-year, $30MM contract represents Minnesota’s biggest expenditure of the winter, and even with Gallo added, the Twins’ payroll still projects under the $118MM threshold. That is well under the $134.4MM the Twins spend on their Opening Day roster last year, and given how Minnesota made a concerted effort to try and re-sign Carlos Correa to a pricey new contract, the Twins clearly have money to spend or re-allocate now that Correa has joined the Giants.
Marlins, Rangers Interested In Michael Conforto
6:41pm: The Rangers are also involved in the Conforto market, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. Texas general manager Chris Young told reporters coming out of the Winter Meetings they were hoping to address left field, where rookies Bubba Thompson, Ezequiel Duran and Josh Smith look like the in-house favorites for playing time. That corner outfield vacancy makes Conforto a fairly obvious target, particularly with Andrew Benintendi’s five-year deal with the White Sox taking the top free agent left fielder off the board.
1:09pm: The Marlins have shown some interest in free agent outfielder Michael Conforto, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman also lists the Astros and Cubs, both of whom have been previously linked to the Boras Corporation client, as teams with interest.
Miami entered the offseason searching for offensive help. They’ve done essentially nothing thus far, with the only noteworthy move being the non-tender of Brian Anderson. The Marlins hit just .230/.294/.363 in 2022, finishing 27th in on-base percentage and 28th in slugging. Spacious Marlins Park hasn’t done their batters any favors, but Miami’s offense was one of the league’s worst even after accounting for home environment. By measure of wRC+, which adjusts for park, the Marlins were 12 percentage points worse than the average hitting team — the sixth-lowest mark in the league.
Most of the Miami offense underperformed, with second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. their only standout hitter. That gives general manager Kim Ng and her staff myriad positions they could look to address. The outfield, which Miami thought they’d fixed last offseason, posed particular problems. Avisaíl García fell flat with a career-worst .224/.266/.317 showing in the first season of a four-year free agent deal. Jorge Soler, inked to a three-year deal after a massive postseason showing in 2021, managed just a .207/.295/.400 mark with subpar defense in left field.
The Marlins gave extended auditions to young players Jesús Sánchez and Bryan De La Cruz. Neither ran away with an everyday job, with both reaching base at a sub-.300 clip. Sánchez and De La Cruz each showed interesting power potential, but they both struck out more often than average while walking at a subpar clip. Of that group, only Sánchez — who spent most of the season’s second half in Triple-A after being optioned — hits left-handed.
Bringing in a lefty-swinging outfielder makes plenty of sense, and Conforto’s one of the more interesting options available. The 29-year-old missed all of 2022 recovering from an offseason injury to his right shoulder that required surgery. He’s not expected to have any health limitations by next spring, but the lost year raises some questions about how he’ll respond after such a long layoff.
Conforto wasn’t even at his best before the surgery, as his 2021 campaign was his worst in a while. He hit .232/.344/.384 over 479 plate appearances for the division-rival Mets in 2021. That’d still be an upgrade over the production Miami received from any of their outfielders last season, but it’s well shy of the .265/.369/.495 cumulative line Conforto had posted from 2017-20.
With his value at a low ebb, Conforto is looking for a bounceback opportunity. Agent Scott Boras has suggested he expects Conforto land a multi-year guarantee this offseason, one that allows him to opt out and retest free agency at the end of the 2023 campaign. Boras reiterated that sentiment when speaking with Anthony DiComo of MLB.com yesterday (Twitter link). That’s a rather lofty goal for a player coming off a season lost to shoulder surgery, and it remains to be seen if a team is willing to guarantee him multiple years.
While Conforto’s bat would be a welcome addition to the Miami lineup, he’s not an ideal fit from a positional perspective. He hasn’t played a single inning of center field since 2019, and his early-career defensive metrics there were very poor. Conforto’s a solid defender in the corner outfield, but he’s even less likely to be an option up-the-middle after surgery on his throwing shoulder. Miami reportedly prefers to push Soler more fully into designated hitter work in 2023, so Conforto and García could take the corners. That’d require leaning on Sánchez, De La Cruz or JJ Bleday again in center field, where each player is probably miscast. Of course, with an already shallow center field market having been picked clean, the Marlins may no longer have a viable alternative to rolling out another mediocre defensive outfield.
The Astros have been tied to Conforto on a number of occasions this offseason, as they’re reportedly looking to install a left-handed bat into the corner outfield mix. The Cubs were previously linked to Conforto as well, although that was before they signed Cody Bellinger to play center field. That filled Chicago’s outfield, which already contained Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ in the corners. The Cubs don’t have a great option at designated hitter, though, which is presumably where they’re eyeing Conforto at this point. Seattle and both New York franchises were also linked to the Oregon State product at points this offseason.
Miami’s facing some competition in the Conforto market, but he shouldn’t be unattainable from a financial perspective. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote in September that owner Bruce Sherman was willing to sign off on a fairly modest payroll bump, but they’ve yet to dip into free agency thus far. The Fish have reportedly put forth an offer to former Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner, who remains unsigned. Heyman writes Miami appears willing to make a two-year commitment to the 38-year-old, who’s coming off a .278/.350/.438 showing in Los Angeles.