Red Sox Notes: Turner, DH, Kluber
Veteran free agent Justin Turner was among the most reliable hitters in Boston last year, slashing a solid .275/.345/.455 with 23 home runs and a 17.6% strikeout rate. Taken together, that offensive production was 14% better than league average by measure of wRC+ despite Turner posting his highest strikeout rate since 2014 and lowest walk rate since 2016. Though Turner declined his player option with the Red Sox and decided to test the open market ahead of his age-39 season, the infielder spoke to reporters recently (as relayed by MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) regarding his free agency and his desire to return to the Red Sox.
“I would love to be back and be with the Sox,” Turner said, “…what I’ve heard from all these guys is how amazing this town is when you’re making a playoff run. I want to be a part of that. It has been A-plus across the board in everything we’ve done and that’s with finishing in fifth place in the AL East. I want to know what it’s like to play in a playoff game for the Red Sox, not against them.”
Though Turner made his desire to remain in Boston clear, he also admitted that he’s fielded interest from more teams this season than he did as a free agent last year. Cotillo notes that the Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Angels all made offers to the veteran last year. The Diamondbacks are once again rumored to be interested in Turner’s services this offseason, though it’s unclear what other clubs may have interest in Turner this offseason. That uncertainty surrounds the Red Sox, themselves, as the club’s level of interest in Turner for 2024 and beyond isn’t entirely clear.
MassLive’s Sean McAdam recently suggested that the Red Sox “may be reluctant” to offer Turner a a two-year guarantee this offseason, noting that newly-minted chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has spoken of the DH as a way to rest players. While McAdam notes that Breslow would not rule out having one player serve as the club’s regular DH, a desire to utilize players such as Masataka Yoshida at DH could limit the club’s interest in a reunion with Turner, who played 98 games at DH and combined for less than 400 innings of work in the field split between first, second, and third base in 2023.
Turner isn’t the only newly-minted free agent to recently discuss his future after spending 2023 in Boston. Veteran right-hander Corey Kluber has returned to the open market after a tough season in Boston where he posted a 7.04 ERA (65 ERA+) with a 7.11 FIP in 55 innings of work while striking out just 16.3% of batters faced. On top of the brutal on-field performance, Kluber battled shoulder injuries throughout the year that ultimately left him sidelined for the season by late June. Kluber was noncommittal when asked if he intends to continue his playing career in 2024, with Alex Speier of the Boston Globe relaying that the veteran righty simply responded to the question with “we’ll see.”
Given his deep struggles in Boston this season, it’s somewhat difficult to imagine the sides coming together on a reunion even if Kluber decides to pitch next season. While the Red Sox are expected to make pitching help a priority this offseason, the club already has right-handers Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, and Garrett Whitlock as starting caliber options alongside Chris Sale for the middle-to-back of the club’s rotation, and the addition of Kluber at this stage of his career would be unlikely to move the needle for a club more in need of impact than depth in the starting rotation.
Brutal as the 2023 season was for Kluber, the righty was one of the best pitchers in the game not long ago. The 37-year-old’s illustrious career includes two AL Cy Young awards and an ERA title in 2017. While Kluber is certainly not the same pitcher he was back then, he was an effective back-end starter for the Rays and Yankees the past two seasons and could potentially draw interest from a club in need of depth this offseason, should he prove healthy enough to continue his playing career.
Diamondbacks Notes: Turner, Pitching, Hazen, Deadline
Justin Turner is “atop [the Diamondbacks’] wish list” this offseason, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. It isn’t any surprise that the D’Backs would be in pursuit of Turner, as the team also had interest in the veteran infielder last winter, and Turner’s stock is quite high after a successful year with the Red Sox.
Turner hit .276/.345/.455 with 23 homers over 626 plate appearances with Boston last season, as he hasn’t shown much sign of decline even though he turns 39 later this month. He’s back on the free agent market after declining his player option to remain with the Sox, and seems likely to land another multi-year contract even at his advanced age. Anything beyond two guaranteed years might be a bit of a reach, however, which perhaps keeps Turner within the Diamondbacks’ price range.
Several contenders or would-be contenders are likely to check in on Turner this winter, so the reigning NL champion D’Backs won’t be alone in their pursuit. Playing in Phoenix would also bring Turner a bit closer to his home in Southern California, and if Turner had designs on being a regular third baseman again, the Diamondbacks have an opening at the hot corner since Evan Longoria is also a free agent. Turner would probably be in the lineup most every day as either a third baseman, designated hitter, or occasional first baseman if Christian Walker is at DH or getting a rest day. When Turner isn’t at third base, Gerardo Perdomo or Emmanuel Rivera would be on hand to man the position.
Signing Turner would also add a right-handed bat to Arizona’s lineup, and GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including The Athletic’s Evan Drellich and Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic) that keeping the lineup balanced is “probably going to be an area that we’re going to need to address again.” Free agents Longoria, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Tommy Pham all hit from the right side, leaving the Snakes a little heavy on lefty swingers and switch-hitters. Top prospect Jordan Lawlar is a right-handed hitter who is expected to get a larger role after making his MLB debut in 2023, though installing Lawlar as the everyday shortstop might be a little bold, and it might be dependent on how the D’Backs address the third base situation.
Beyond another hitter or two, Hazen stressed that his team will be looking to add some experienced rotation help. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly were the cornerstones of an otherwise subpar rotation, as most of the younger arms had some growing pains, veteran Zach Davies was injured and mostly ineffective, and Madison Bumgarner was released entirely after continued struggles.
Rookie Brandon Pfaadt established himself during the playoffs, so he’ll be penciled into one spot along with Gallen and Kelly. That leaves room for another seasoned pitcher within the rotation’s top four, and Hazen felt the Snakes were simply lacking in this department during the postseason, most notably in their now-infamous bullpen game in Game 4 of the World Series.
“Having veterans in that rotation matter. I think you looked across the aisle here in this series and [the Rangers] had more veteran starting pitchers than we did,” Hazen said.
To this end, Hazen had some regrets over not already addressing this need last summer. The general manager said he “chased every starting pitcher in the free market” at the deadline, and noted that teams often asked for Pfaadt and Alek Thomas in trade demands. While Hazen had no intention of moving either of those players, “were there other avenues that we could have pushed, by adding more prospects in the deals where it didn’t include those guys? Where I should have gone down that route? I don’t know. I don’t know the answer to those things. But I know I didn’t get a starting pitcher. And that’s on me.”
Justin Turner Declines Player Option
The Red Sox announced a pair of option decisions Friday evening. Infielder Justin Turner has declined his $13.4MM player option in favor of a $6.7MM buyout. Meanwhile, the team declined its $11MM provision on right-hander Corey Kluber.
Turner signed with Boston last offseason. He inked a two-year, $21.7MM guarantee that always looked likely to send him back to the market after one season. Turner locked in an $8.3MM base salary, an extra $1MM in incentives, and the hefty buyout — which only required he’d top $6.7MM on his next contract to come out on top.
There’s no doubt he’ll beat that number after another strong season. The right-handed hitter posted a .276/.345/.455 line while connecting on 23 home runs over 626 plate appearances. The presence of Rafael Devers and Triston Casas at the infield corners consigned Turner primarily to designated hitter work. It raises questions about whether he could be an everyday third base option for another team as he enters his age-39 season.
Despite his age, there’s little doubt that Turner still projects as one of the better hitters in the class. He has topped 20 homers in two of the past three seasons, running a .277/.352/.455 slash since the start of 2021. Turner still has plus contact skills and good plate discipline.
The Kluber signing worked out a lot less favorably. Boston inked the two-time Cy Young winner to a $10MM guarantee. Kluber had turned in 164 innings with a 4.34 ERA for the Rays a season ago. His stint in Boston didn’t go well, as he was tagged for a 7.04 ERA through 55 frames. The right-hander struggled both during an early-season stint from the rotation and following a bullpen transfer in May.
Making matters worse, Kluber landed on the injured list on June 21 with inflammation in his throwing shoulder. He suffered a setback a month later and never returned to the big league club, although he did pitch twice for Triple-A Worcester in September. There was never any chance the Sox were going to retain him for $11MM. Assuming he wants to continue playing, the 38-year-old could conduct some offseason showcases in hopes of finding a major league contract elsewhere.
Kim Ng Preferred Justin Turner To Jean Segura Last Offseason
Former Marlins GM Kim Ng remains a popular topic of conversation around baseball, following her surprise departure from the organization earlier this week. This morning, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald provided some insight into one of Ng’s worst errors of judgment during her tenure in Miami: signing Jean Segura to a two-year, $17MM deal last winter. According to Jackson, the executive wanted Justin Turner to play third base for the Marlins in 2023, but she was forced to change gears and pursue Segura after Turner signed with the Red Sox.
From 2020-22, Segura was an above-average hitter and a capable infield defender for the Phillies. However, the 33-year-old struggled tremendously in 2023, hitting .219 with a 52 wRC+ in 85 games for the Marlins. He also had trouble on the other side of the ball, committing 10 errors and compiling -9 Defensive Runs Saved and -4 Outs Above Average. With -1.3 FanGraphs WAR, the former All-Star was one of the least valuable players in the National League. Ultimately, the Marlins dealt Segura to the Guardians at the deadline, and Cleveland released him the same day. He has not played professional baseball since.
Turner, on the other hand, played a solid campaign for the Red Sox. His 114 wRC+ was his lowest since 2013, but he set a new career-high in plate appearances and RBI. In 146 games, he smacked 23 home runs and put the ball in play at an elite rate, finishing with the seventh-highest contact rate in the American League. That said, it’s worth mentioning that he took most of his reps at DH and first base. The 38-year-old played just 58 games in the field and only seven at the hot corner. He made three errors in 57 innings at third base, so it’s fair to wonder if he could have handled the position on a full-time basis for Miami.
It isn’t news that the Marlins were interested in Turner last winter, but Jackson’s report clarifies why they wound up with Segura instead. This new information paints Ng’s decision to sign Segura in a more positive light – he wasn’t her first choice, after all – although if she so strongly preferred Turner, it’s hard to imagine she couldn’t have beat Boston’s offer. Turner signed for two years and $21.7MM guaranteed, only $2.35MM more per year than Segura would command.
More to the point, while signing Turner might have gotten the Marlins more bang for their buck, Ng would eventually find a way to right her wrongs. She flipped Segura to the Guardians for Josh Bell, who played an instrumental role in Miami’s run to the playoffs. Moreover, she traded for Jake Burger of the White Sox, who now looks like the Marlins’ third baseman of the future. All front office executives sign bad contracts from time to time, and to her credit, Ng did an excellent job turning things around. Indeed, if the Marlins had signed Turner instead of Segura, they might not have traded for Bell or Burger, and their improbable postseason run might never have happened.
Red Sox Notes: Imanaga, Breslow, Turner, Jansen, Rafaela
NPB standout Shota Imanaga will be posted for Major League teams this offseason, and MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam reports that the Red Sox have “heavily scouted” the Japanese left-hander. Imanaga has a 3.17 ERA over eight seasons and 990 2/3 innings with the Yokohama DeNa Baystars, though North American fans might know him best from his work with Japan’s national team in this year’s World Baseball Classic. Imanaga had a 3.00 ERA over six innings and three appearances, and was the starting pitcher (earning the win) in Japan’s gold-medal game victory over the United States.
MLB Trade Rumors readers are also familiar with Imanaga from our NPB Players To Watch series, as Dai Takegami Podziewski has regularly written about the southpaw as Imanaga looks to be on the verge of heading to the majors. Imanaga will draw plenty of attention from pitching-needy teams, and the Sox certainly figure to make rotation upgrades a major part of their offseason plan under their next head of baseball operations. Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the top name available among NPB pitchers this winter, but with at least ten MLB clubs (including the Red Sox) interested in Yamamoto’s services, it is possible Imanaga might be something of a solid backup plan for teams that either can’t land Yamamoto or can’t afford his big price tag.
More from Fenway Park…
- Cubs assistant general manager Craig Breslow might be joining the Red Sox front office as the head of pitching development, as per Peter Gammons (on X). The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma (also via X) has a contradictory report, saying there has been “zero contact” between the Cubs and Red Sox involving Breslow. A veteran of 12 MLB seasons, Breslow has been working in Chicago’s front office for the better part of five years, becoming the team’s director of pitching in October 2019 and then receiving the AGM title in 2020. Breslow spent parts of five seasons pitching for the Red Sox and he hails from Connecticut, plus Gammons notes that Breslow and his family live in nearby Newton, Massachusetts.
- Justin Turner told MassLive’s Chris Cotillo that he hasn’t yet decided about whether or not to exercise his $13.4MM player option for the 2024 season, as his focus is still on finishing the rest of the schedule. As to the possibility of staying with the Sox in general, “I love playing in Boston and I’ve had a great experience here so obviously, it would be fantastic if I was still here,” Turner said. Even at age 38, Turner is still a very solid bat, hitting .278/.348/.463 with 23 homers over 600 plate appearances in his first season with the Red Sox. It figures that the Sox would love to bring Turner back, though they might have to sign him to a new contract altogether — as Cotillo notes, the odds are high that Turner will take the $6.7MM buyout of his option and test free agency again in search of a bigger deal.
- Kenley Jansen is back on the active roster, as the Red Sox activated the closer from the seven-day COVID-related injured list today. (Righty Zack Weiss was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move.) Like Turner, Jansen was also a productive signing from the 2022-23 offseason, joining the Sox on a two-year/$32MM deal and delivering 29 saves and a 3.63 ERA over 44 2/3 innings in his first season in Beantown.
- The Red Sox rank 27th of 30 teams in second base bWAR this season, as Boston’s second basemen have combined for a sub-replacement level -0.1 bWAR. The Athletic’s Chad Jennings looks at how the Sox might address the position next year, and how perhaps the easiest solution would be to give Ceddanne Rafaela some regular time at the keystone. The top prospect has played a few games at second base already, and while the Sox prefer to see what Rafaela’s glove can do in center field, using Rafaela at second base in at least a part-time capacity would open up center field to see if Jarren Duran can build on his promising 2023 campaign. As for Boston’s other in-house second base options, Jennings writes that the club hasn’t yet decided on whether or not to tender Luis Urias a contract this winter, as Urias is set for at least a minimal arbitration raise on his current $4.7MM salary. As Jennings notes, the next front office boss will probably be the one making the call on Urias, and it is possible the Sox might non-tender the infielder and then look to re-sign him at a lower price.
Marlins Had Interest In Turner, Lynn, Cron Prior To Trade Deadline
The Marlins were one of the league’s busier teams in advance of the trade deadline, as Miami made several moves to bolster its lineup and bullpen for the wild card race. Such names as Josh Bell, David Robertson, Jake Burger, Jorge Lopez, and Ryan Weathers joined the organization, but there were plenty of interesting players on Miami’s radar, including a few who weren’t previously mentioned in pre-deadline buzz. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Levi Weaver report that the Marlins had “extensive discussions” with the Red Sox about Justin Turner, while Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report that the Marlins were also interested in Lance Lynn and C.J. Cron.
Reports surfaced on July 28 that the Sox weren’t moving Turner, which is probably when (as Rosenthal and Weaver write) the Marlins turned their attention to other position players. Miami’s talks with the White Sox about Lynn also developed into the eventual Burger trade, as the Fish landed Burger for left-hander Jake Eder in a one-for-one swap. Burger was also something of a fallback once the Marlins balked at the Nationals’ asking price for Jeimer Candelario, and Miami was more comfortable trading a controllable pitcher like Eder for another younger player with multiple years of control, whereas Candelario is a free agent after the season.
Lynn and Cron were seen as likely trade candidates since the White Sox and Rockies are both out of contention, and indeed both players were moved in pre-deadline deals. (Chicago sent Lynn and Joe Kelly to the Dodgers as part of a five-player trade, while the Rockies dealt Cron and Randal Grichuk to the Angels for two pitching prospects.) There would certainly have been more eyebrows raised over a Turner deal given that the Red Sox are fighting for a wild card berth in the American League, yet even such a trade wouldn’t have been a total shock considering how Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom both moved and acquired veterans at the 2022 deadline when Boston was also on the periphery of the playoff chase.
This year’s deadline season was comparatively quieter at Fenway Park, as the Sox only acquired Luis Urias from the Brewers and sent Enrique Hernandez to the Dodgers. The Red Sox were known to be looking for controllable pitching, and Rosenthal/Weaver theorize that the Marlins’ deep crop of arms might have gotten Bloom to at least consider the idea of moving Turner.
Speculatively, it is also worth wondering if Edward Cabrera might have been part of the Marlins/Red Sox talks. Jackson and Mish write that several teams called about Cabrera, to the point that the Marlins had Devin Smeltzer on hand in case Cabrera was moved prior to his scheduled start on Monday. Cabrera only lasted three innings in that start, and he was optioned to Triple-A on Wednesday and Smeltzer’s contract was officially selected from Triple-A a day later.
As much as the Red Sox needed pitching, it is safe to guess that trading Turner for almost anyone wouldn’t have gone over well with Boston fans, or even within the clubhouse. Turner has hit .286/.356/.481 with 17 homers over 441 plate appearances, with his offense steadily increasing over the course of the season. Though Turner will be 39 in November, he is still playing well enough that it’s possible he could opt out of the final season of his two-year contract with the Sox and again enter free agency this winter, looking to land a more lucrative multi-year commitment. If that scenario occurs, one would imagine the Marlins would come calling, considering their interest in Turner dates back at last winter.
Red Sox Not Interested In Trading Justin Turner
Red Sox infielder Justin Turner has apparently drawn trade interest, per Rob Bradford of WEEI, but rival clubs are being told the Sox have no interest in trading him.
It’s unsurprising that clubs would have interest in Turner, who has been one of the most consistently above-average hitters in the majors for a decade now. He broke out in 2014 with a .340/.404/.493 showing for the Dodgers, producing a 158 wRC+ that indicated he was 58% better than league average at the plate. In each season since, his wRC+ has finished somewhere between 154 and 123.
Turner signed with the Red Sox this year after a nine-year stretch in Los Angeles. It was officially a two-year, $21.7MM guarantee, with an $8.3MM salary this year followed by a $13.4MM player option that comes with a $6.7MM buyout. Since signing that deal, he’s having another fairly typical season for him, despite now being 38 years old. He’s hitting .289/.359/.481 on the year for a wRC+ of 127, still 27% better than the league-average hitter. He’s done that while providing a bit of defensive versatility, occasionally slotting in at each non-shortstop position on the infield.
Given that he’s having yet another strong season, he seems a lock to turn down that player option and return to free agency as long as he’s stays healthy. Given the high price of the buyout, exactly half of the option price, he’d only need to top $6.7MM on the open market in order to come out ahead. That makes him effectively a rental piece with the deadline now just a few days away.
Last year, the Red Sox were in a similar spot to this year, just a bit outside of contention. On August 1 of 2022, they were 52-52, three games out of a playoff spot. They ended up doing a mix of buying and selling, flipping Jake Diekman and Christian Vázquez but holding onto Nathan Eovaldi, J.D. Martinez and Rich Hill, while also bringing in Tommy Pham and Eric Hosmer. That didn’t work out as they ended up fading and missing the playoffs.
Their current 55-47 record puts them in a better spot than last year, though their place in the standings is only modestly better, as they are a game and a half out of a playoff spot. It’s understandable why other teams might call on Turner, hoping the Red Sox would be open to a similar buy-sell hybrid that could make him available, an approach that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has admitted is likely.
How the club ultimately plays the deadline remains to be seen. Just because Turner isn’t available, doesn’t mean other players won’t be. Boston already flipped Enrique Hernández to the Dodgers and has gotten interest on Adam Duvall. It seems likely the club will look to add some pitching depth and they still have a few days to do so. Trading Turner could have been one avenue to getting another arm or two, but it doesn’t seem that is in the club’s plans.
Red Sox Have Multiple Infield Decisions Looming
The Red Sox are planning to reinstate Yu Chang from the injured list and install him as their starting shortstop within the next couple of days, but that’s only the first of several decisions regarding their infield mix. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com outlines the situation neatly, noting that there are ostensibly three roster spots for four infielders: Chang, Christian Arroyo, Enrique Hernandez and Pablo Reyes.
Like Chang, Reyes is expected to be activated from the injured list before long. Based on overall track record — he’s a career .250/.312/.361 hitter — the 29-year-old would seem to be the odd man out. Reyes is hitting .303/.338/.364 so far this season, however, and while it’s only come in a sample of 72 plate appearances, that’s still better output than the rest of the group. Arroyo is batting .243/.278/.375 in 163 plate appearances, while Hernandez has struggled immensely this year with a .225/.282/.333 slash in 291 plate appearances. Each of Arroyo, Chang and Reyes is out of minor league options, while Hernandez cannot be optioned by virtue of his Major League service time.
Further muddying the infield mix, manager Alex Cora told the team’s beat last night that Justin Turner could begin mixing in at second base soon (Twitter link via Ian Browne of MLB.com). The 38-year-old has just nine innings at second base since 2015, eight of which came earlier this season. He hasn’t started a game at second in eight years, but he’s been one of Boston’s best hitters (.282/.354/.461), and Cora voiced a desire to maximize the offensive potential for a club that has averaged fewer than two runs per game during a 5-8 slump over the past 13 games. It seems unlikely that the Red Sox would install Turner at second base on a full-time basis, given his age and lack of recent experience there, but even occasional reps at the position will cut into opportunities for Arroyo, Hernandez and others.
Looming further in the distance is the return of shortstop Trevor Story, who could begin a minor league rehab assignment following the All-Star break, per Cora (Twitter link via Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald). While Story has previously spoken about the possibility of returning as a DH in July before moving to shortstop in August, it seems that won’t happen. Cora indicated that when Story returns, it’ll be as a shortstop. That’s still a ways down the road, but it’d likely push Chang either into a utility role or, depending on the outcome of the upcoming roster decisions, perhaps into a more frequent role at second base.
Health and performance leading up to the returns of Chang, Reyes and Story can certainly impact the eventual roster management, but even independent of the Aug. 1 trade deadline, the Red Sox will have a handful of roster decisions to make in the relatively near future.
Five Bats Improving Their Stock Ahead Of Free Agency
With the midpoint of the 2023 regular season fast approaching, the 2023-24 free agent class is beginning to solidify. The coming class has long been considered one deep in pitching but light on potentially impactful hitters. While that evaluation has mostly held up throughout the first half of the season, a handful of surprising hitters are on track for a healthy payday this winter, should their performance hold up throughout the rest of the year.
Each of these players has appeared primarily as a DH in 2023, meaning they would offer prospective suitors little in the way of defensive value. Still, each could find himself among the top options for teams looking to add thump to their lineup without breaking the bank for the likes of Shohei Ohtani or Matt Chapman. Let’s take a look at five hitters who are helping to transform the complexion of the coming class of free agent hitters, in ascending order based on their wRC+ in 2023:
Justin Turner, Red Sox (121 wRC+):
After nine seasons with the Dodgers, the club’s longest tenured hitter departed Los Angeles over the offseason, eventually landing with the Red Sox on a complex two-year deal with an opt-out following the 2023 campaign. Despite concerns that the veteran infielder was headed for a downturn in terms of production as he entered his late thirties, Turner has managed to stave off father time through his first 67 games in Boston, slashing .278/.356/.451 across 289 plate appearances.
That quality slash line comes with excellent peripheral numbers, as well: his 14.5% strikeout rate remains elite, and his 9.7% walk rate is well above league average in its own right. His chase rate has actually improved since last season, as his 65th percentile rank in 2022 has leapt to the 80th percentile in 2023. Those improvements leave Turner with a .363 xwOBA that would be his best in a 162 game season since 2019. While there’s some cause for concern about the veteran’s power production going forward, as his barrel rate has dipped from 8% last season to just 6% in the current campaign, Turner seems all but certain to beat the $6.7MM he’d be leaving on the table by returning to the open market this offseason as long as he stays healthy and avoids a significant downturn in production in the second half.
Andrew McCutchen, Pirates (122 wRC+):
After posting the first below-average offensive season of his career (98 wRC+) with the Brewers in 2022, McCutchen decided to return to Pittsburgh, where the veteran outfielder was drafted in the first round of the 2005 draft, played for nine seasons, and earned an MVP award. He and the Pirates agreed to a one-year, $5MM deal that has worked out splendidly for both sides: McCutchen has slashed .262/.379/.424 across 256 plate appearances in his age-36 season while recording his 2,000th hit in a Pirates uniform as the club has bucked expectations in the first half of the season, posting a 34-36 record that leaves them just 2.5 games out of first place in the NL Central.
When McCutchen returns to free agency following the 2023 campaign, the decorated veteran figures to have recorded his 300th home run and 400th double in addition to his aforementioned 2,000th hit. On top of those career milestones, McCutchen has experienced nothing short of a career renaissance in returning to Pittsburgh. His 19.5% strikeout rate is the lowest its been since he left Pittsburgh following the 2017 season, while his 16% walk rate ranks sixth among all qualified hitters. His chase rate is similarly elite, ranking in the 95th percentile of qualifying hitters. Though he’s appeared in the outfield just eight times this season, McCutchen’s resurgence in 2023 seems all but guaranteed to allow him to continue his career into 2024 and beyond, whether that be with the Pirates or elsewhere.
J.D. Martinez, Dodgers (131 wRC+):
While the previous two veterans on this list have found success by combining roughly average power with elite plate discipline, Martinez has largely done the opposite throughout his career. Once among the league’s most fearsome sluggers as he challenged for a Triple Crown in the AL back in 2018 en route to a 4th place finish in MVP voting, Martinez’s final seasons in Boston saw the slugger’s production decline, as he posted a wRC+ of 116 from 2020-22 with an ISO of just .199 after posting marks .228 or higher in every season from 2014-2019.
After signing with the Dodgers on a one-year deal worth $10MM, Martinez seems to have rediscovered his power stroke in 2023. He’s already slammed 16 home runs in 55 games this season, matching the total he managed across 139 games in 2022. That being said, the renewed power has come at the cost of plate discipline: Martinez’s 5.6% walk rate would be his lowest over a full season since 2013, while his 29.9% strikeout rate would be the highest of his entire career. Still, it’s hard to argue with the results, as Martinez’s current wRC+ and xWOBA would both be his best since the aforementioned 2019 season if maintained over a full season while his ISO leads the majors among qualified hitters. In his return to free agency this offseason, Martinez figures to offer elite power production out of the DH spot, even entering his age-36 campaign.
Joc Pederson, Giants (149 wRC+):
The Giants raised some eyebrows this past offseason by extending Pederson a Qualifying Offer after a phenomenal 2022 campaign, but the lefty-swinging slugger has quieted doubters by improving on last season’s performance in 137 plate appearances in 2023. While his .237 ISO has dipped slightly as compared to last season’s .247 mark, Pederson has more than made up for it by raising his walk rate from an above-average 9.7% clip in 2022 to a whopping 14.6% this season as his 21.2% strikeout rate in 2023 would be his lowest since 2018.
What’s more, unlike the three veterans we’ve discussed to this point, Pederson will be just 31 years old on Opening Day 2024, making him a safer bet to stave off age-related decline than any of Turner, McCutchen, and Martinez. That being said, Pederson is not without flaws. He sports a worrisome platoon split, with just a .626 OPS against lefties in his career, and has largely been platoon-protected during his time with San Francisco. What’s more, he’s struggled to stay healthy this year, with two stints on the injured list already in the young 2023 campaign. Despite those flaws, though, Pederson’s lefty power figures to be represent one of the more impactful bats available via free agency this offseason.
Jorge Soler, Marlins (150 wRC+):
After struggling to a below-average .207/.295/.400 slash line in the first year of his three-year, $36MM pact with the Marlins last season, Soler has exploded in 2023 as one of the top power threats in the majors. His .298 ISO ranks fifth among all qualified major leaguers, behind only Martinez, Ohtani, Pete Alonso, and Yordan Alvarez. He’s already clobbered 20 home runs in just 282 plate appearances this season, matching the pace of his 48-homer campaign with the Royals in 2019. Soler has paired that elite power production with an elite 12.8% walk rate that would be a career best over a full season. While he’s still striking out at an elevated 24.1% clip, that figure is still a marked improvement over last season, during which he punched out in 29.4% of his plate appearances.
Like Pederson, Soler is in the midst of his age-31 season, meaning he could be an attractive candidate for multi-year offers from power-needy teams this offseason. Soler also boasts a more palatable platoon split: while he hits lefties far better than righties for his career, he’s still managed a .775 OPS against right-handers in his career, including a .807 figure in 2023. That being said, one potential cause for concern regarding Soler is his health, as the slugger spent the majority of the second half on the shelf with lower back spasms in 2022. If Soler can stay healthy and productive throughout the second half of the 2023 campaign, however, he could put his reputation as one of the sport’s most mercurial hitters to rest and emerge as one of the top offensive players in the coming free agent class, easily eclipsing the $9MM he would leave on the table by opting out of his deal with the Marlins to test free agency.
Red Sox Shuffling Infield Alignment
The Red Sox are shuffling up their infield alignment, most notably dropping Enrique Hernandez from the everyday shortstop role and returning him to his more familiar split between center field and second base, manager Alex Cora announced to reporters last night (Twitter links via Alex Speier and Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe). For the time being, utilityman Pablo Reyes will take the reins at shortstop. Cora also started Justin Turner at first base over Triston Casas last night, calling that the team’s best defensive alignment and noting that the Sox plan to work with Casas on his defense. (Turner, however, made a key error late in the eventual loss.)
Trevor Story‘s offseason elbow surgery threw a wrench into the Red Sox’ infield plans, prompting the team to sign Adam Duvall to man center field and push Hernandez to shortstop — a position where he’d logged just 163 innings in the preceding four seasons combined. The Sox also picked up Adalberto Mondesi in a trade with the Royals, hoping he’d bring some additional depth, but he’s yet to play in a game this season due to ongoing injury woes.
Hernandez, 31, proved himself to be a lights-out defender in center field during his first season with the Red Sox in 2021, and Defensive Runs Saved has long credited him as an above-average second baseman. The shift to a less-familiar shortstop position wasn’t necessarily expected to be easy, but it’s been far more difficult than the team envisioned. No player in baseball has more errors than the 14 Hernandez has committed in just 411 innings at short. Defensive Runs Saved (-7) and Outs Above Average (-8) have graded him as one of the game’s six worst defenders at any position so far in 2023. As a team, the Red Sox rank 26th in MLB in DRS (-20) and are tied for last in OAA (-16).
Hernandez’s struggles haven’t been confined to his glovework. This year’s .228/.296/.356 is a near-mirror image of last year’s lackluster performance. When Boston inked Hernandez to a one-year, $10MM extension last summer, the hope was surely that his bat would rebound closer to it 2021 levels (.250/.337/.449) and that the versatile Hernandez would continue to provide premium defense at multiple spots. That hasn’t happened, and Hernandez’s trouble on both sides of the ball is just one of the many reasons Boston sits two games below .500 — 14 games out of the division lead and 5.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race.
Casas, too, has fallen shy of expectations — particularly at the plate. Were the burly 24-year-old performing up to expectations with the bat, the team would likely be willing to live with any defensive shortcomings at first base. Instead, Casas is hitting just .200/.324/.368 with seven home runs. He’s walking at a sensational 15.8% clip but also fanning in 26.6% of his plate appearances. On top of that, he’s been dinged for -6 DRS and -4 OAA at first base.
The veteran Turner is outperforming Casas in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage alike thus far, and he’s looked comfortable enough in his 133 innings at first base that it seems the Sox are comfortable giving him some increased work there. Cora didn’t declare that there would be a full-time switch from Casas to Turner, but it certainly seems the Boston club is taking a hard look at its defense as it searches for ways to improve.
Story’s eventual return could help to solidify things in the infield, though he’ll likely return as a designated hitter before he takes any reps in the middle infield. Story said just this week that he’s hoping to return in a DH capacity sometime next month, but he isn’t likely to play any defense until August. Yu Chang‘s impending return could give the Sox a more experienced option at short than Reyes, though Chang is a utilityman with a career .206/.271/.358 batting line, so installing him into the lineup isn’t likely to help the Sox’ offense.