Justin Verlander

Astros Notes: Pressly, Verlander, Javier

By Anthony Franco | August 25, 2022 at 8:42pm CDT

The Astros placed closer Ryan Pressly on the 15-day injured list this afternoon, retroactive to August 22, with neck spasms. Righty Seth Martinez was recalled to take the vacated active roster spot. Pressly has been unavailable for the past couple games dealing with stiffness in his neck, and the issue is apparently severe enough it’ll take him out of commission for at least a couple weeks. The club hasn’t provided a more specific timetable on his return.

Pressly has excelled again this season, continuing along as one of the sport’s top late-game relievers. Through 37 2/3 innings on the year, the right-hander owns a 3.11 ERA with an excellent 32.2% strikeout percentage and just a 6.3% walk rate. His 44.2% ground-ball rate is the lowest mark in his four full seasons in Houston, but the two-time All-Star has more than offset that with elite swing-and-miss stuff. He’s gotten a whiff on 17.1% of his pitches, the 13th-highest rate among 214 relievers with 30+ innings pitched.

More out of Houston:

Justin Verlander chatted with Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic earlier this week, discussing his progression back from the Tommy John surgery that wiped out virtually all of his 2020-21 seasons. The future Hall of Famer has put himself firmly in the conversation for a third career Cy Young award, posting an MLB-best 1.87 ERA over 23 starts. Verlander hasn’t looked at all fazed by his lack of innings over the prior two seasons, as he’s soaked up 149 frames (the 12th most in MLB). He’s already surpassed the 130-inning threshold to vest a player option in his deal that could keep him in Houston for $25MM next season. With how well he’s performed, however, he seems all but certain to forego that provision and retest the open market in search of an annual salary near or above the $43.333MM former teammate Max Scherzer landed from the Mets last offseason. Verlander noted he won’t be able to make a formal decision on the option until after he sees how he finishes the season, but he unsurprisingly tells Rosenthal that “if things continue to go the way they are and knock on wood, everything goes the way I think everybody would hope, then I would probably opt out. I’ve pitched pretty damn well.“
There’s a bit of a shake-up alongside Verlander in the starting staff, as skipper Dusty Baker told reporters the club will move from the six-man rotation they’d been deploying to a five-man staff for now (via Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle). Righty Cristian Javier will be the odd man out, at least temporarily. Baker indicated the team would skip the 25-year-old’s scheduled start this weekend, with Javier available out of the bullpen instead. It’s not out of the question they eventually go back to the six-man staff, but with off days scheduled for next Monday and Thursday, there’s room for the club to consolidate the rotation for the time being. Javier’s return to the bullpen certainly isn’t an indictment of his performance. Through 112 1/3 frames, he owns a sterling 2.88 ERA with a 32.4% strikeout rate. Still, with a top five of Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and José Urquidy, the Astros have enviable depth (although Garcia has struggled of late). Javier’s willingness to work as a multi-inning relief weapon as needed could forecast his potential role in the postseason, as he has far more recent bullpen experience than any of the other top rotation options on staff.

MLBTR Poll: Justin Verlander’s Next Contract

By Darragh McDonald | August 10, 2022 at 8:52pm CDT

Last winter, Max Scherzer hit the open market as one of the more unique free agents in recent memory. While most baseball players, and athletes of all kinds, generally decline in quality as they get farther from their 20s, Scherzer was 37 and still playing at an elite level. Though last year was his age-36 season, he turned 37 years old on July 27th. (A player’s age on July 1 is generally considered to be their age for the year.) In that year, he threw 179 1/3 innings and somehow registered a career-best 2.46 ERA. Though he got ground balls at a below-average 33.5% clip, his 34.1% strikeout rate and 5.2% walk rate were both much better than the mean. He also added 16 1/2 innings of 2.16 ERA ball in the postseason, just for a little icing on the cake.

So, how do you value an elite pitcher who is 37 years old? The answer from the market was high salary over a short term. Scherzer received a three-year deal covering his age-37 through age-39 seasons, with Scherzer turning 40 in the last year of the deal. The deal comes with a $130MM guarantee, spread out evenly with a $43.33MM salary in each year. That AAV shattered the previous record, which was Gerrit Cole’s $36MM. Scherzer can also opt out of the deal after the second year.

This winter might feature a similar but perhaps more extreme free agent. Justin Verlander threw only six innings in 2020 before Tommy John surgery wiped out the rest of that season and all of 2021. After returning to health, he held a showcase for interested teams, eventually re-signing for the Astros. The contract guaranteed him $25MM for 2022, despite having barely pitched for two years. It also came with a $25MM player option for 2023, conditional on Verlander reaching 130 innings pitched this year. Verlander has already surpassed that mark, allowing him to cash in another $25MM salary next year.

However, he’s pitching so well this season that he’s likely to decline his option and return to the open market in search of a larger payday. Through exactly 130 innings coming into tonight, he has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate, 4.6% walk rate and 37.4% ground ball rate. The strikeouts aren’t as high as Scherzer’s were last season, but his ERA is significantly better, with a lower walk rate and better ground ball rate.

Verlander is older than Scherzer, having turned 39 years old in February. However, if he got an annual average value of $25MM after two lost seasons, what would he get after a Cy Young-caliber campaign, even if he is one year older? It will be a fascinating and unprecedented experiment. Verlander could rightly ask for a similar AAV to Scherzer, in the $40-45MM range, depending on how strong he finishes. But how much term will teams be willing to commit to a player about to enter his age-40 season? How many teams will be willing to go to two years? Will any go to three like they did for Scherzer?

But then what does Verlander want? Would he prefer something like a one-year, $50MM deal or try to land around $40MM annually spread out over three years? Verlander has previously said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s, perhaps pointing towards the latter option, but we can’t really know.

MLBTR readers, what do you think? Below are two polls, one for what kind of term you think Verlander will get and another for what kind of guarantee. Let us know your thoughts.

(link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

2022-23 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition

By Steve Adams | August 9, 2022 at 11:57pm CDT

A lot has changed since the last edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings. Joe Musgrove, formerly the No. 5 entrant on the list, has since signed a five-year extension with his hometown Padres, keeping him from reaching the market. Willson Contreras, the No. 9 entrant on that edition of the list, was somewhat stunningly not traded at the deadline, meaning he’ll be subject to draft-pick compensation. Jacob deGrom had yet to pitch at that point in the season but has now made a dominant pair of outings in his 2022 debut. More broadly, several players on the list or on the “honorable mention” portion of the list have altered their stock with strong play or faded.

Here’s a look at where things stand, with a reminder that this list is based on what the MLBTR team believes to be each player’s earning power in free agency — not necessarily a ranking of the “best” free agents or who’ll hold up the best over the life of a major free-agent contract.

1. Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees (Last ranked: 1): While plenty has changed since the May 25 version of these rankings, it’s business as usual for Judge, who boldly turned down a seven-year, $213.5MM extension offer back in Spring Training and now looks prescient for doing so. Judge was hitting .314/.386/.692 at the time of our last rankings and has followed that with a remarkably consistent .292/.390/.654 line in 64 games since. Judge is on pace to top Roger Maris’ 61 home runs from the 1961 season, leading the Majors not only in long balls (44) but also runs scored (93), RBIs (98), slugging percentage (.677), OPS (1.068) and wRC+ (196). He’s leading the AL with 122 hits and has even stolen a career-high 11 bases (without being caught).

Judge has been the best hitter on the planet since Opening Day, and as things currently stand, the only person who could conceivably stand in his way of winning his first AL MVP trophy would be Angels sensation Shohei Ohtani. However, great as Ohtani has been again in 2022, his offense isn’t quite what it was last year (and isn’t anywhere close to Judge’s league-leading dominance). From a pure WAR perspective, Judge has been so good this year that his value with the bat has eclipsed Ohtani’s combined value at the plate and on the mound.

Regardless, Judge is now poised to reach free agency on the heels of the finest season of his already brilliant big league career. He’ll play the 2023 season at age 31, which is about the only strike against him in free agency. Judge will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Yankees, and even though he’d be 38 by the end of an eight-year deal, that seems plenty plausible. He could very well command the largest annual salary any position player has ever received, too, and a $300MM overall contract doesn’t seem out of the question. This is what it looks like to bet on yourself and win — in resounding, overwhelming fashion, no less.

2. Trea Turner, SS, Dodgers (LR: 3): There’s not much on the baseball field that Turner doesn’t do well. The 29-year-old is the sport’s fastest player, by measure of Statcast’s Average Sprint Speed, and he’s hitting .305/.345/.499 as of this writing. The 28 home runs he popped in 2021 might very well go down as a career-high, but Turner should finish this year around 25 dingers and has twice in the past hit 19 long balls (including in a 2019 season where he played in just 122 games).

That injury shortened ’19 campaign was the only one in the past half decade in which Turner spent significant time on the shelf. Over the past five years, he’s a .303/.358/.493 hitter who’s made a pair of All-Star teams, won a batting title and taken home a World Series ring.

By the end of a long-term deal, Turner will probably move off shortstop, but he’s a solid option there for now who’d be plenty capable of sliding over to second base at some point. Over the past three seasons, he’s been 43% better than league-average with the bat, by measure of wRC+, and this will be his fourth season of at least four wins above replacement in the past five years — with the 60-game 2020 season, when he boasted 2.8 fWAR and bWAR alike, being the lone exception.

If Turner had been born a day later, next year would technically be considered his age-29 season, but he’ll be 30 on June 30, and the July 1 cutoff is (for whatever reason) generally seen as the arbitrary turning point for a player’s age in a given year. A seven-year deal for Turner would run through age-37, and an eight-year deal through age-38. He’ll have to contend with a qualifying offer and another deep class of shortstops, but Turner is one of baseball’s most well-rounded players and figures to be compensated in line with the game’s 10 to 20 best position players.

3. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (LR: 6): It’s difficult to directly compare Arenado’s 2022 season and the 2019 season that propelled Anthony Rendon to a seven-year, $245MM contract, given that Rendon’s Herculean ’19 effort came during the juiced-ball season. Offense is down league-wide now, yet Arenado stacks up favorably in terms of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. Metrics like wRC+ and OPS+, which weight for both home park and league environment, feel that Arenado’s 2022 production at the plate has actually been slightly better.

Defensively, Arenado is nearly peerless at his position. Since making his MLB debut in 2013, Arenado ranks second among all players, regardless of position, with 151 Defensive Runs Saved, trailing only Andrelton Simmons. He’s third to Francisco Lindor and Nick Ahmed in Statcast’s Outs Above Average, which tracks defensive data dating back to 2016. Arenado’s numbers aren’t inflated by early-career marks, either. He remains elite this season, ranking third in all of MLB in DRS and second in OAA. Defensive metrics and the eye test agree, as Arenado has been a human highlight reel at the hot corner for his decade-long career.

The age gap between 2022 Arenado (31) and 2019 Rendon (29) can’t be ignored. However, that should be more reflected in the length of a theoretical Arenado contract than in the annual value. It’s also, of course, worth noting that Arenado is technically under contract through 2027. He’s guaranteed $144MM in that time but has the right to opt out of the contract after the current season. Arenado forwent an opt-out clause after the 2021 season, but his 2022 campaign is the best of his career.

Even if he’s capped at a five-year deal in free agency, he should be able to trounce the current $28.8MM annual value remaining on his deal by as much as $5-7MM — and a six-year deal doesn’t seem impossible to imagine coming off such a brilliant effort. (Freddie Freeman scored a six-year deal beginning with his age-32 season, so there’s recent precedent.) Perhaps Arenado and the Cardinals will work out a compromise, and it’s always possible he decides he’s happy in St. Louis and just passes on the opt-out entirely. If he does want to test the market again, however, there could be another $20-60MM in earning power for him on top of his current deal.

4. Carlos Correa, SS, Twins (LR: 2): The 2022 season might not have gone quite as well as either Correa or the Twins hoped, but he’s still enjoying a sound all-around year, hitting .265/.343/.433 (22% better than league average, by measure of wRC+). He got out to a slow start in April and has slumped following the All-Star break, but for a three-month stretch from late April to late July, Correa hit .308/.375/.509. Provided the current slump doesn’t last too long, Correa stands a decent chance to be around 30% better than average at the plate for the second straight season and third time in four years.

Last year’s all-world defensive ratings have taken a dip thus far in 2022 — surprising for a player who has generally been a consistent source of elite glovework. He’s made five throwing errors this season, tied for his most since 2016, but Correa has been plenty sure-handed, booting just two balls hit to him. He’s spent the year throwing to Miguel Sano and a pair of makeshift first baseman who’ve converted from other positions (Luis Arraez, Jose Miranda), so perhaps some of the throwing miscues can be forgiven by a team with a better defensive outlook at first base.

If those first couple paragraphs feel like they’re filled with caveats — well, they are. The simple fact is that Correa hasn’t had as strong a season as he did in 2021 and probably shouldn’t be expected to command the type of contract many (MLBTR included) thought to be possible last offseason. That said, Correa still hasn’t even turned 28 — the age at which he’ll play nearly all of the 2023 season. His youth alone gives him the chance to command the longest contract of any free agent this winter; even a 10-year deal would run through age-37.

That type of contract may not be on the table without a huge finish, but Correa is still a plus defender and well above-average hitter with age on his side. It’s perhaps narrowly more plausible that he could opt into a second year with the Twins, take another $35.1MM salary and hope to hit free agency on the heels of a stronger platform in 2023, but his current earning power is still among the best in this year’s free-agent class.

5. Xander Bogaerts, SS, Red Sox (LR: 4): When the last version of our list was published, Bogaerts had homered just four times in 174 plate appearances while posting a below-average .135 ISO (slugging minus batting average). It was easy enough to overlook as little more than small-sample noise at the time, but Bogaerts has hit just five home runs in 267 plate appearances since that time and now has nine long balls and a tepid .141 ISO in 441 trips to the plate. That’s the worst power output we’ve seen from Bogaerts since 2017 by an overwhelming margin. From 2018-21, he belted 90 homers in 2106 plate appearances while turning in a stout .224 ISO.

Bogaerts is still hitting .311/.383/.452 on the season, but he’s also sporting a career-high .382 average on balls in play that he’s not going to sustain — particularly not when his average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate are at their lowest or near-lowest levels since 2017.

There’s still no doubt that Bogaerts will opt out of the remaining three years and $60MM on his contract, but he’d be higher on this list if not for his power stroke going MIA. Couple that with ongoing questions about his defense — some teams are surely going to see Bogaerts as a player who needs to move off shortstop, perhaps as soon as 2023 — and the current free-agent outlook is a bit murkier than expected.

Nevertheless, Bogaerts has a long track record of excellent offense and well above-average power output. With a strong finish to the season, particularly in the power department, he should have no problem commanding a notable nine-figure deal — and something in excess of $200MM can’t be ruled out.

6. Jacob deGrom, RHP, Mets (LR: 7): The No. 6 ranking here for deGrom factors in something of a best-case scenario, but this list is based on earning power, after all. If deGrom gets hurt again or struggles down the stretch, it’s possible he’ll drop off the list entirely. The latter of those two scenarios seems unlikely, though, as deGrom hasn’t “struggled” since 2017. He’s been dominant through his first two starts of the 2022 season, averaging 99.2 mph with his fastball and holding opponents to three runs on four hits and a walk with 18 punchouts through 10 2/3 innings.

Dating back to 2018, deGrom has a comical 1.95 ERA in 591 2/3 innings with a 34.9% strikeout rate against a 5.3% walk rate. When healthy, deGrom is simply unmatched in terms of starting pitching dominance over that period. He ranks second among all Major League pitchers with 24 wins above replacement dating back to 2018, per FanGraphs, despite the fact that he’s made only 93 starts in that time. Max Scherzer tops the list but has started 24 more games and logged 143 2/3 more innings — about an extra 75% of a season’s worth of work.

If deGrom finishes the season with no red flags, the bidding should be furious. He’ll turn 35 next June, making him nearly three full years younger than Scherzer was when he secured his record-setting three-year, $130MM deal from the Mets. DeGrom could justifiably look to top that AAV on a multi-year deal, and he’s too good for the bidding to stop at two years. The biggest question surrounding deGrom is just how many years someone will be willing to guarantee. A three-year pact in excess of Scherzer’s seems doable, and a fourth year ought to be on the table as well.

7. Dansby Swanson, SS, Braves (LR: Not Ranked): Long a plus defender at shortstop, Swanson is having another strong year with the glove and a career year with the bat. He’s followed up a career-high 27 home runs in 2021 with a .292/.348/.461 showing through 463 trips to the plate. He’s been the beneficiary of a .375 average on balls in play that he surely won’t sustain over a larger sample, but Swanson is also making hard contact at a career-best 44.7% clip and elevating the ball more than he has in years past.

A greater walk rate than his current 7.3% clip or lower strikeout rate than his 26.3% mark would raise Swanson’s floor, but his glove alone will make him an above-average regular and he’s well on his way to his second straight 25-homer season. Add in that Swanson will play all of next season at 29 years old, and a nine-figure deal seems likely. Both Trevor Story and Javier Baez landed six-year, $140MM pacts last winter at the same age. Swanson will have to contend with a qualifying offer and with some more decorated shortstop options ahead of him on the market, but he’ll be in high demand all the same.

8. Carlos Rodon, LHP, Giants (LR: 8): Rodon was the best pitcher in baseball through late July in 2021, but he was capped to five innings per appearance (at most) down the stretch as he battled shoulder fatigue and diminished velocity. For a pitcher with Rodon’s injury history, that limited interest in him to the point that he took a two-year, $44MM deal with a chance to opt out following the 2022 season — provided he reached 110 frames.

Rodon has not only reached 110 innings — he’s shot past it with career-best velocity (95.8 mph average fastball) and another sub-3.00 ERA (2.95 through 128 1/3 frames thus far). Rodon is averaging just shy of six innings per outing and boasts a 31.2% strikeout rate against a 7.6% walk rate. He’s reached double-digit strikeouts in six of his 22 starts and held opponents to three or fewer runs in 18 of 22 tries.

Rodon’s fastball in his past eight starts is down about one mile per hour over his average from his first 14 starts, but it’s still been a healthy 95.1 mph in that stretch. That said, he threw a complete game on July 9, worked seven shutout innings on July 31, and averaged a resurgent 96 mph with his heater in his most recent outing. At least so far, Rodon doesn’t appear to be fading at all. If he can avoid the type of late swoon he experienced in 2021, he ought to find four- and five-year offers at superior annual values to this contract’s $22MM AAV. He’ll receive a qualifying offer and surely reject it, which isn’t ideal, but he has the best combination of age (30 all of next season) and 2022 performance of any starter on this year’s market.

9. Justin Verlander, RHP, Astros (LR: Not Ranked): Simply returning to make a full season’s worth of starts would’ve been a feat for a 39-year-old who had pitched just six innings since the end of the 2019 season due to Tommy John surgery. Verlander, of course, is no ordinary 39-year-old, and he’s not only returned but positioned himself as a front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award.

It’s a jaw-dropping feat, even for one of this generation’s best. Verlander has a 1.73 ERA with a 25.5% strikeout rate against a minuscule 4.6% walk rate. He’s averaging nearly 6 2/3 innings per start, sitting 95.1 mph with his heater — his second-best mark since way back in 2011 — and has thrown a quality start in 16 of his 20 appearances this year. Verlander hasn’t yielded more than one earned run in a start since June 18 and has held opponents to one or zero earned runs in a stunning 15 of 20 starts.

He’ll turn 40 in February, but Verlander has a legitimate case to break Max Scherzer’s $43.33MM AAV, particularly if he’s looking at a two-year deal. He’s said he wants to pitch into his mid-40s and looks as good as ever, though, so we shouldn’t discount the possibility that a team shrugs and goes to three guaranteed years for this generation’s most prolific workhorse. Verlander unlocked a $25MM player option when he reached 130 innings pitched, but he should be able to crush that in free agency even if he prefers to work out an extension with Houston.

10. Edwin Diaz, RHP, Mets (LR: Not Ranked): It’s been six years since Mark Melancon (four years, $62MM), Kenley Jansen (five years, $80MM) and Aroldis Chapman (five years, $85MM) each set new records for relief contracts in the same offseason. Diaz, the most dominant reliever in baseball this season, will have a chance to topple that Chapman record when he heads into free agency in advance of his age-29 season.

After a nightmarish first season in Queens, Diaz has righted the ship and become a spectacle in the best kind of way. He’s averaging 99.1 mph on his heater this season, has punched out 52.9% of his opponents and has an entrance more befitting of a professional wrestler than a Major League closer.

Diaz’s Baseball Savant profile looks like a video game cheat code. He’s leading the Majors in expected ERA, expected wOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, strikeout rate, whiff rate and ranks in the 99th percentile in average exit velocity, opponents’ chase rate, opponents’ barrel rate and fastball velocity. Diaz last allowed an earned run on June 18, and in 18 innings since that time he’s posted a 38-to-1 K/BB ratio while yielding just seven hits.

The 2022 version of Edwin Diaz might be the best reliever we’ve seen since Mariano Rivera. He’ll be hit with a qualifying offer, but it’s doubtful the teams pursuing him are going to even care about that. It’d be a surprise if Diaz doesn’t set a new contract record for relief pitchers this winter, and he could be baseball’s first nine-figure reliever.

Honorable Mentions: Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Jose Abreu, Josh Bell, Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Benintendi

Vesting Options Update: Flexen, Maldonado, Carrasco, Andrus

By Anthony Franco | August 9, 2022 at 5:53pm CDT

Major league contracts cannot be made conditional on player performance metrics, but it is permissible for clubs and teams to agree to options dependent upon playing time. Things such as innings pitched, plate appearances or (less frequently) games started or finished are all possible goals that could allow a player to trigger either additional guarantees or the right to opt out of an otherwise guaranteed contract. It’s also permissible to tie vesting provisions to a player’s finish in award voting, as we’ll see with the final player on this list.

This year, there are seven players whose 2023 contract status is tied directly to their playing time and/or awards finishes on the season. With a couple months left in the schedule, it’s worth checking in to see how they’re progressing towards those thresholds.

Already Vested

Carlos Rodón, SP, Giants

Rodón already reached the 110-inning threshold necessary to trigger his vesting provision last month. That affords him the right to opt out of the final year and $22.5MM remaining on his deal with San Francisco, and the Boras Corporation client is sure to do just that. Rodón has backed up his 2021 breakout with another elite season. He carries a 2.95 ERA across 128 1/3 innings, striking out an elite 31.2% of batters faced while sitting in the 95-96 MPH range with his fastball. The 29-year-old should receive the long-term deal that eluded him last winter, as he’s now pushing 50 starts of ace-level performance over the past two seasons and has put last summer’s shoulder soreness further in the rearview mirror.

Justin Verlander, SP, Astros

As with Rodón, Verlander has already hit his vesting threshold. The future Hall of Famer needed to hit 130 innings on the season to kick in a $25MM player option for next year, a milestone he reached last week. Barring injury, he’s going to pass up on that sum and test the open market. Despite being in his age-39 season, the nine-time All-Star has returned to the top of the Houston rotation after losing virtually all of 2020-21 to Tommy John surgery recovery. He owns an MLB-best 1.73 ERA across 130 frames, positioning himself as a strong contender for a third career Cy Young award. Verlander’s swing-and-miss rates aren’t quite at his pre-surgery peak, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern given his track record and continued dominance without an elite strikeout rate. The ISE Baseball client could look to top former teammate Max Scherzer’s $43.333MM average annual salary and shoot for an all-time record — particularly if he’s willing to accept two guaranteed years instead of holding out for a three-year deal that takes him through his age-42 season.

Should Be Imminently Reached

Chris Flexen, SP, Mariners

Flexen signed a two-year, $4.75MM guarantee upon coming over from the Korea Baseball Organization during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contained a $4MM club option for the 2023 campaign but afforded Flexen the opportunity to override that with an $8MM salary based on his number of innings pitched. (MLBTR recently confirmed that Flexen’s vesting provision would guarantee his 2023 salary but does not afford him an opt-out clause after this season). The righty could reach that marker by tallying either 150 innings in 2022 or 300 combined frames from 2021-22.

As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted yesterday, Flexen is soon to reach the latter threshold. He worked 179 2/3 frames last season, leaving him with 120 1/3 innings to tally this year. Through 21 starts, the 28-year-old has worked 117 frames. He needs just 3 1/3 more innings and should officially hit the threshold during his next start (or within two starts at the latest) barring an immediate season-ending injury. The Mariners, for their part, should be perfectly content to keep Flexen around for a reasonable $8MM. He’s been a durable source of roughly league average innings, posting an ERA of 3.73 since landing in the Pacific Northwest. Flexen doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s avoided the injured list and thrown plenty of strikes. He’s a perfectly fine back-of-the-rotation arm for a team with a spacious home ballpark and a strong defense behind him, and Seattle’s 2023 payroll slate is plenty reasonable.

Martín Maldonado, C, Astros

Last April, the Astros preemptively kept Maldonado from getting to the open market after the 2021 season. They signed him to a $5MM pact for 2022, and the deal contained a matching vesting provision for the following year. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle was among those to report that Maldonado would lock in the $5MM salary for 2023 if he appeared in 90 games during the ’22 campaign.

Heading into play Tuesday, Maldonado has gotten into 82 contests. The 35-year-old (36 next week) has continued to pick up the bulk of the playing time even after Houston acquired Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox just before the trade deadline. Maldonado has been behind the dish for four of Houston’s six games since August 2, with Vázquez picking up the other two starts. Maldonado should get to the 90-game threshold with ease (again, barring imminent injury), likely within about two weeks.

Vázquez is ticketed for free agency after the season, so Maldonado should hold onto his primary catching job next year. It’s possible the Astros bring in a 1B complement, particularly with prospect Korey Lee struggling at Triple-A, but it seems they’ll be content to turn things over to Maldonado for a fourth straight season. The veteran has always been one of the game’s worst hitters, and that’s continued this season. He owns a .183/.244/.357 line across 278 plate appearances. He’s hitting for a bit more power than usual but posting one of his worst years from an on-base perspective. He’s also rated as a below-average defender this year in the estimation of public metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s pitch framing.

The Astros have maintained that Maldonado’s game-calling acumen and ability to handle a pitching staff is elite, however. That’s not going to show up on his statistical ledger, but the organization has backed up those assertions by continuing to pencil Maldonado into the lineup on most days. They’ve got no shortage of offensive firepower elsewhere around the diamond. Maldonado’s poor numbers haven’t stopped the team from racing to 30 games above .500, and they’ve had arguably baseball’s top pitching staff. One can debate how much credit Maldonado deserves for that, but he’s probably bringing some amount of on-field value that’s not quantifiable.

Attainable But Borderline

Carlos Carrasco, SP, Mets

Carrasco has a $14MM club option for next season on a contract extension he initially signed with Cleveland over the 2018-19 offseason. That option becomes guaranteed if he throws 170 innings in 2022 and is expected to be healthy for the following season, according to an Associated Press report. Carrasco can’t officially lock in the latter designation until the end of the year, as he’ll presumably need to pass a physical at the start of the offseason.

He can work towards the first goal, however. Carrasco enters play Tuesday with 117 2/3 innings across 21 starts. That leaves him 52 1/3 frames short with a little less than two months to go. The 35-year-old has averaged around 5.6 innings per start to this point in the season. At that rate, he’ll need to make between nine and ten more outings, which he’s right on track to hit by the end of the year. New York has 52 games left in the regular season, putting them on pace to go through a five-man rotation about ten more times. Even a brief injured list stint would probably prevent Carrasco from getting to 170 frames, but he’s on pace thus far.

Of course, it’s not a guarantee he’d hit free agency at the end of the year if he doesn’t trigger the vesting threshold. The Mets would still retain his services via club option, and it’s possible they’d exercise it anyhow. They’re over $280MM in 2022 payroll, so a $14MM salary isn’t all that burdensome. After an injury-plagued first season in Queens, the well-respected Carrasco has bounced back with a nice year. He owns a 3.82 ERA with slightly better than average strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates. If he finishes the year healthy and remains generally productive, the Mets probably keep him around regardless.

Elvis Andrus, SS, Athletics

The A’s, on the other hand, aren’t likely to want anything to do with Andrus’ option. The veteran shortstop’s extension with the Rangers contained a $15MM club option for 2023. That’d become a player option if Andrus were both traded (as he was, from Texas to Oakland) and tallies 550 plate appearances in 2022.

Andrus has hit 366 times thus far, leaving him 184 plate appearances shy of the marker. The A’s have 52 games remaining, so Andrus needs to tally around 3.54 plate appearances per game from here on out. He’s averaged 3.66 PA’s per game through the season’s first few months, so he’s on pace to reach the mark. If Andrus continued at his current pace, he’d reach approximately 556 plate appearances at year’s end. If the A’s are intent on avoiding that situation, they could mix in a couple more off days over the next two months to prevent him from getting there.

Deliberately curbing playing time to prevent a player from reaching a vesting threshold would be grounds for a grievance filing against the team. The rebuilding A’s could point to a desire to get 23-year-old Nick Allen more regular run at shortstop as an on-field justification, even as Allen has struggled mightily through his early stint in the major leagues. If Andrus misses the vesting threshold by just a handful of plate appearances, it’s certain to raise some eyebrows around the league and in the offices of the MLBPA. There’s little question Andrus — owner of a serviceable .241/.303/.372 line on the season — is one of the nine best position players on the last-place club. Yet he wouldn’t receive $15MM on the open market and would definitely trigger the option if it vests, likely counting for more than a quarter of the A’s bottom-of-the-barrel player payroll next season if that occurs.

Not Happening

Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Dodgers

The Dodgers re-signed the ever-productive Turner to a two-year, $34MM guarantee during the 2020-21 offseason. The deal contains a $16MM club option for 2023 that would vest at $20MM if Turner finishes in the top ten in MVP balloting this season. It’d vest at $17.5MM if he finishes between 11th and 15th in MVP balloting (report via Bob Nightengale of USA Today).

Turner overcame a very slow start with an excellent month of July that pushed his season line up to .257/.332/.405 through 355 plate appearances. He’s having a solid year, but it’s his worst season since he landed in Southern California back in 2014. Turner certainly isn’t going to get legitimate MVP support. Would the Dodgers exercise the option regardless as he heads into his age-38 season? That feels unlikely, but perhaps Turner could play his way into it with a strong stretch run and postseason after returning from an abdominal strain that currently has him on the injured list.

Justin Verlander Reaches 130 Innings Pitched, Vests 2023 Player Option

By Anthony Franco | August 4, 2022 at 10:12pm CDT

Justin Verlander breezed through the Guardians lineup tonight, tossing six innings of scoreless ball. It was another dominant performance in a season full of them for the AL Cy Young award contender, and today’s start also marked a notable contractual development. Verlander reached 130 innings on the season, meaning he’s officially vested a $25MM player option for the 2023 campaign.

Verlander is trending towards foregoing that option, as he’s in position to handily surpass a $25MM average annual value as a free agent. The nine-time All-Star commanded an identical salary this year on the heels of a season in which he didn’t pitch as he rehabbed from 2020 Tommy John surgery. Amidst one of the best seasons of a Hall of Fame career, Verlander is trending towards a massive raise. That’s particularly true since he received and rejected a qualifying offer last winter, meaning the Astros cannot offer another QO next offseason. A signing club thus won’t have to forfeit any draft pick or international signing bonus space this time around. Barring injury or a completely out-of-the-blue collapse in the final couple months, he’ll shatter a $25MM guarantee on the free agent market.

After tonight’s start, Verlander now carries a major league best 1.73 ERA. His 25.5% strikeout rate isn’t at the elite 35.1% level he posted between 2018-20, but it’s still four points above the MLB average for starters. With league-best run prevention, Verlander’s dip in strikeouts isn’t likely to have too significant an effect on his value on the open market. That’s particularly true since his 95 MPH average fastball velocity has remained intact after the elbow surgery, and he’s continued to spin both his fastball and breaking pitches at a high-end level. Verlander also owns some of the best command in the sport, and the 2011 AL MVP has proven capable of thriving on the biggest stage. He carries a career 3.40 ERA in 187 2/3 postseason innings, and he’ll have an opportunity to build on that resume with Houston this October.

Verlander’s exceptional track record sets up one of the more fascinating free agent cases of the upcoming offseason. He’s clearly reestablished himself as one of the sport’s best pitchers, the kind of ace clubs would be happy to trot out in the opening game of a playoff series. A new deal will begin with his age-40 campaign, however, setting him up for a short-term contract with a massive annual salary.

The obvious comparison point is the record-setting contract scored by his former teammate Max Scherzer last winter. The three-time Cy Young winner signed a three-year, $130MM deal with the Mets. That obliterated the previous all-time high annual salary, with Scherzer’s $43.333MM annual payout topping any previous contract’s yearly salary by more than $7MM. Scherzer was coming off a 179 1/3 inning, 2.46 ERA campaign in which he struck out 34.1% of opponents between the Nationals and Dodgers. That better swing-and-miss stuff might tip the nod in Scherzer’s favor, but Verlander and his representatives at ISE Baseball seem likely to try to top that AAV record — particularly if he holds a sub-2.00 ERA all year. Even if he doesn’t quite hit Scherzer’s heights, beating the $36MM annual salary that ranks second all-time feels attainable for Verlander.

It’ll be equally interesting to see the length of the contract Verlander might receive. Scherzer’s deal began with his age-37 campaign and takes him through 39, Verlander’s current age. With Verlander still at the top of his game, a multi-year pact feels likely. Whether a team would go to three years and sign him through age-42 remains to be seen.

The upcoming starting pitching market features a few high-end arms, although most have injury or age concerns. With Joe Musgrove agreeing to a five-year extension to stick in his hometown San Diego, players like Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodón and Verlander look to be the top hurlers on the market (assuming all three trigger opt-out clauses in their contracts).

Nathan Eovaldi and Chris Bassitt are above-average starters but each are already in their mid-30s. Noah Syndergaard has looked like a solid mid-rotation arm but isn’t throwing as hard or missing as many bats as he did at his peak with the Mets. Sean Manaea has an underwhelming 4.24 ERA on the year, although he’s typically a solid mid-rotation type. Mike Clevinger will be entering his age-32 season and missed all of last year rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Zach Eflin is one of the younger arms available and generally solid when healthy, but he’s dealt with recurring knee injuries in his career that have again arisen this season. Clayton Kershaw seemingly limited his market last winter with geographic restrictions. It’s a class that won’t be lacking for star power, but there’s also a fair bit of uncertainty with most of the veteran hurlers who’ll be out there.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

AL Notes: Moncada, Blue Jays, Verlander, Athletics

By Mark Polishuk | June 17, 2022 at 10:00pm CDT

Yoan Moncada left tonight’s game due to right hamstring tightness, an injury seemingly suffered when Moncada was running out a grounder in the top of the second inning. Moncada returned to play third base in the bottom half of the frame but was replaced in the field by Josh Harrison in the next inning.

More will be known about Moncada’s status after further tests take place, but another injury is the last thing Moncada and the White Sox need. An oblique strain suffered near the end of Spring Training kept Moncada from playing until May 9, and he is hitting a mere .179/.230/.292 over his first 113 plate appearances. Should Moncada need to miss time, the Sox would at least have a ready replacement in the hot-hitting Jake Burger, and Danny Mendick could also find more playing time once Tim Anderson returns from the IL next week and regains his normal shortstop position. However, a Moncada injury would represent yet another setback for a White Sox club that hasn’t been able to play with its ideal first-choice lineup all season.

8 Post-Tommy John Pitchers Who’ll Impact Next Year’s Market

By Steve Adams | February 15, 2022 at 12:53pm CDT

We’ve grown accustomed to seeing headline after headline indicating that a pitcher is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery in today’s game. The procedure has become so commonplace, in fact, that it’s no longer surprising to see teams guarantee multi-year deals to rehabbing pitchers who’ll be sidelined for a full season of that contract as they work back from the injury. Such deals have produced varying levels of success in the past. Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year deal with the Rays worked out great; Drew Smyly didn’t pitch for the Cubs and posted a 6.24 after being traded to the Rangers.

Heading into the 2022 season, there are a handful of notable pitchers who were either signed under just that circumstance or are now playing for a contract on the heels of a Tommy John surgery that, hopefully, is more or less in the rearview mirror. A strong rebound will position any of this bunch either as a prominent member of next winter’s free-agent crop or, in some cases, to have a lucrative 2023 club option picked up. Here’s a look at a handful of Tommy John recoveries that could have a notable impact on next year’s market.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger: A marquee addition by the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline, Clevinger made only four regular-season starts and a one-inning postseason cameo before requiring Tommy John surgery in the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego, knowing he’d miss the entire 2021 season, signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM deal that paid him $2MM during his rehab season but will more heavily compensate him in 2022, now that he’s expected to be back to full strength. It was the second Tommy John procedure of Clevinger’s career, as he also had the surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

There’s little questioning Clevinger’s talent, as the now-31-year-old righty was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball from 2017 until the time of his injury in 2020. In 489 1/3 innings over that stretch, Clevinger posted a 2.96 ERA while punching out 28% of his opponents against a 9% walk rate. Among big league pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown during that time, Clevinger ranked seventh in ERA and 14th in FIP (3.39). That said, he’s also only reached 130 innings in a big league season on one occasion, when he threw an even 200 frames in 2019.

That relatively limited workload, coupled with this being Clevinger’s second Tommy John procedure, will surely impact his free agency next winter to an extent. That said, a strong and healthy season out of the righty will still position him as one of the top arms on next winter’s market. Clevinger, teammate Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Noah Syndergaard are among the more prominent free agents still in their early 30s next winter (to say nothing of older veterans with contract options or opt-outs, such as Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton).

James Paxton: Paxton isn’t necessarily playing for a free-agent contract. He signed a complicated multi-year deal with the Red Sox that’ll pay him $6MM in 2022 before he can either trigger a $4MM player option or the team can exercise a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons. For luxury-tax purposes, that should be considered a two-year, $10MM deal, as the player option for 2023 is considered to be guaranteed money. Of course, there’s also the possibility that with a healthy season, the contract will effectively balloon to a contract that pays Paxton $32MM over a three-year term. The deal contains further incentives, as Paxton could boost those 2023-24 salaries by $250K apiece for reaching 12, 14, 16 and 18 starts.

It’s a heavily incentive-laden deal that speaks both to the considerable risk in signing Paxton and the considerable upside he’ll bring to Boston. A healthy Paxton is a high-quality big league starter, evidenced the career 3.50 ERA he carried into an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Yankees. Among the 149 big league starters to toss at least 200 innings from 2017-19, Paxton’s 30.1% strikeout rate ranked seventh, and his 7.3% walk rate was markedly better than league average. His 22.7 K-BB% was among the best in the game, as were his strong ratings in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.26) and SIERA (3.45).

Since that 2019 season, however, Paxton has undergone back surgery, missed significant time with a forearm strain and eventually undergone Tommy John surgery. Earlier in his career, he’d dealt with lat, forearm and pectoral injuries, among a litany of smaller-scale issues.

There’s probably a scenario where Paxton pitches well enough to turn down his $4MM player option even if the Red Sox decline the effective two-year, $26MM option they hold over him. (We saw a comparable situation play out with Yusei Kikuchi earlier in the winter.) That said, the ideal scenario for Paxton and the Sox is that he pitches well enough to reestablish himself as a quality MLB hurler and boost those two club options to $14MM apiece in total value in the process.

Paxton underwent his Tommy John procedure in late April, so he’s not likely to be ready to help the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. By late May or June, however, he could represent a boost to a rotation that is not exactly shy of other injury concerns.

Justin Verlander: Even though he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander still got a hefty $25MM guarantee from the Astros — plus a conditional $25MM player option that kicks in if he reaches 130 innings pitched. The two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP has a track record that speaks for itself; when we last saw Verlander in a full, healthy season, he was edging then-teammate Gerrit Cole for the 2019 AL Cy Young Award.

Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his 40s, and he has a good chance at doing so if he can bounce back this coming season. He’ll turn 39 later this week, and if he goes out and looks anything like he did from 2015-20 — 1010 innings, 2.94 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate — Verlander will likely turn down that $25MM option, or at least leverage it into a new multi-year arrangement with the ’Stros. He was just promised a $25MM guarantee despite having thrown only six innings since Opening Day 2020, so there’s little reason to accept that he’d take a year and $25MM on the heels of a healthy return effort at Minute Maid Park.

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps it’s not quite fair to label Syndergaard as a Tommy John rehabber; after all, he did make it back to the mound with the Mets late in the 2021 season — albeit for only two innings. That said, this is Thor’s first full season back from that ligament replacement procedure, and he’ll be pitching for a big contract next winter from the moment he suits up in Orange County. Signed by the Angels to a one-year, $21MM contract, Syndergaard will be pitching with a team other than the Mets for the first time in his big league career.

It’s a hefty price to pay, particularly considering the fact that Syndergaard had rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but his career to date is all the evidence needed to suggest that at his best, Syndergaard is plenty worth that gamble. He’s never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season and has never failed to strike out a batter per inning. Few pitchers can match Syndergaard’s blend of pure velocity, missed bats and impeccable command, and he manages all that while still turning in a ground-ball rate that’s well higher than the league average.

Syndergaard has always felt like he’s one step away from solidifying himself as a bona fide ace, and as Robbie Ray showed in winning the AL Cy Young Award this season, one dominant season for a player with this type of track record can result in a nine-figure payday if things break right. The market has already proven to value Syndergaard at more than $20MM per year, and given that he’d be 30 years old in 2023, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that he’s pitching for a $100MM contract this season.

Luis Severino: As with Syndergaard, Severino may not quite fit the criteria for this list. The 27-year-old (28 later this week, on the same day Verlander turns 39) returned to give the Yankees six innings out of the bullpen late in the 2021 season, and his protracted absence from the team’s pitching staff cannot be solely attributed to Tommy John surgery. Severino has also battled groin, shoulder and lat injuries along the way. That said, Severino really hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2020, and it’s that operation that is the primary reason for his absence over the past two seasons.

Severino isn’t yet slated to hit the open market at season’s end — at least not before the Yankees make a call on a $15MM club option or a $2.75MM buyout. The resulting $12.25MM net decision would be a straightforward one for general manager Brian Cashman if Severino at all looks like his former self. From 2017-18, Severino gave the Yankees 384 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with outstanding strikeout and walk rates, prompting the team to sign him to a four-year contract extension that promised him $40MM.

That deal looked like a bargain for the team at the time but has since gone south, due largely to repeated injury woes. Severino made a combined 63 regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2017-18, looking every bit like a foundational piece to the pitching staff, but he’s combined for just 25 starts and another 18 relief appearances in the five seasons surrounding that brilliant run.

With a big season in 2022, Severino could still see that $15MM option picked up, and if he can remain healthy into 2023, he’d hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes reality, however.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle: Signed by the Dodgers to a two-year, $4.75MM contract last offseason, Kahnle was never expected to contribute in 2021 — hence the backloaded nature of his contract, which will pay him $3.45MM in 2022. The hard-throwing righty only managed one inning for the 2020 Yankees, meaning this coming season will be the first since 2019 in which he’ll potentially pitch anything resembling a full workload.

The 32-year-old Kahnle has been inconsistent but has dominated more often than he’s struggled. From 2016-20, he logged a combined 3.48 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate while averaging 97.1 mph on his heater. That includes a disastrous but also fluky-looking 2018 campaign in which he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 frames. From 2016-20, Kahnle’s 32.9% strikeout rate ranks 17th among the 155 relievers to have thrown at least 150 innings, while his 15.9% swinging-strike rate is tied for sixth.

Kahnle’s Tommy John surgery came way back on Aug. 5, 2020, so there should be no restrictions on him by the time the season gets underway. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season next winter, and a return to his vintage form should position him as one of the top relievers on a free-agent market that is lacking in big-name right-handed relievers.

Ken Giles: Like Kahnle, Giles was signed by the Mariners — two years, $7MM — knowing full well that he would not pitch in 2021. Unlike Kahnle, his contract includes a club option for the 2023 season, which is valued at $9.5MM (with a $500K buyout).

Many of the same superlatives that apply to Kahnle apply even more so to Giles. His 18% swinging-strike rate, for instance, tops Kahnle and sits third among the 155 relievers who totaled at least 150 frames from 2016-20. His 3.33 ERA in that time is a bit more toward the middle of the pack, but Giles misses bats, induces chases outside the zone and throws as hard as nearly any reliever in the sport. He’s had a pair of 4.00-something ERAs sprinkled in amid a series of pristine marks throughout his big league career. Those two blemishes have coincided with spikes in his average on balls in play and dips in his strand rate.

On the whole, Giles is a power arm who can pile up strikeouts in droves. He’s a sometimes forgotten piece of the puzzle when looking at the 2022 Mariners and their hopes of contending, but he’ll join a deep bullpen mix that also features Diego Castillo, 2021 breakout closer Paul Sewald, former Marlins stopped Drew Steckenrider (who enjoyed a tremendous rebound in 2021) and the underappreciated Casey Sadler, who notched a 0.67 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year.

A healthy Giles would very likely see that $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season picked up, and at his best, he’s a bargain at that price. If Giles is pitching well but things go south for the Mariners, teams will come calling at the trade deadline. Of course, the Mariners are hoping to be squarely in the postseason mix, and they’re likely not done with their offseason shopping just yet.

Jose Leclerc: Armed with a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Leclerc’s ability to return to form (or his lack thereof) will have major implications for the Rangers moving forward. His four-year, $14.75MM contract extension includes a $6MM club option for the 2023 season and a $6.25MM option for the 2024 season. A rebound effort makes that 2023 option a no-brainer for the Rangers to pick up as they hope to ride a hyper-aggressive offseason into their next competitive window.

Leclerc, 28, has fanned just shy of a third of the hitters he’s faced so far in his big league career and has only allowed a dozen homers in 189 Major League innings (0.57 HR/9). His 14.9% walk rate is far too high, but he looked to be making considerable strides in that department in 2019 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA, a 38.1% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. He’ll be a highly intriguing lottery ticket on next year’s market if he pitches poorly enough that the Rangers buy that option out (or if they do so on the heels of another injury). If he rebounds, he’ll be a bargain piece of an on-the-rise Rangers club in 2023-24.

Justin Verlander’s 2023 Player Option Reportedly Conditional On Reaching Innings Threshold

By Anthony Franco | December 17, 2021 at 10:23pm CDT

Justin Verlander’s deal to return to the Astros became official this week. The contract guarantees him a $25MM salary in 2022 and reportedly contains a matching $25MM player option for the 2023 season. However, the Associated Press reports that Verlander’s option is conditional on him reaching 130 innings pitched next season.

Verlander should have a strong chance of reaching that tally. He’s no doubt locked into the Astros’ rotation, and he eclipsed 130 frames every year between 2006-19. The workhorse shattered that mark in every year other than 2015, surpassing 200 frames on twelve separate occasions. So long as he remains healthy, Verlander shouldn’t have any problem getting to 130 innings and at least giving himself the option of picking up some extra financial security.

That health caveat is an important one for any pitcher, though, and that’s particularly true in Verlander’s case. He’s thrown just six innings over the past two seasons on account of a 2020 elbow injury that necessitated Tommy John surgery. Verlander’s expected to be at full strength to start next year, and the Houston front office was clearly confident enough in his health to put a $25MM salary on the table. Yet requiring an innings threshold to vest the 2023 player option affords the team some cover in case the 38-year-old Verlander (39 in February) suffers another injury next season.

The terms of Verlander’s deal were reportedly agreed upon in mid-November, but the signing wasn’t finalized until this week. Some observers may have wondered whether concerns about Verlander’s surgically-repaired elbow could’ve been the cause for the delay, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. Buster Olney of ESPN wrote this week that the lag between the reported agreement and the finalization of the deal was due to some sort of administrative hold-up on the part of Major League Baseball.

Justin Verlander’s Deal With Astros Made Official

By Anthony Franco | December 13, 2021 at 3:23pm CDT

Last month, the Astros came to an agreement with Justin Verlander to bring back the eight-time All-Star. While the agreement and terms were reported in mid-November, the deal was somewhat curiously not made official prior to the December 2 lockout.

That’s no longer an issue, as Buster Olney of ESPN reports (on Twitter) that Major League Baseball has formally approved the agreement. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network adds that the contract was submitted to MLB on December 1, in the waning hours before the expiration of the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement. Because it was submitted for approval before the lockout, MLB and the MLB Players Association have approved the deal even during the ongoing freeze of 40-man roster transactions.

It’s still not precisely clear what caused the atypically long hold-up, although Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic tweets that the now-resolved issue had to do with some “language in the contract.” That’s essentially a moot point now, as Verlander is again officially a member of the Astros. The originally-reported contract terms (a two-year, $50MM guarantee with an opt-out provision after the first season) remain in effect, tweets Heyman.

Verlander has only made one start over the past two seasons on account of Tommy John surgery. When last healthy, the former AL MVP posted one of the strongest seasons of his illustrious career. Over 223 innings in 2019, Verlander pitched to a 2.58 ERA/2.95 SIERA en route to his second career Cy Young award. The Astros are placing a sizable bet he’ll return to that star form coming off surgery and turning 39 years old in February. Of course, the Houston front office has kept a keen eye on Verlander’s recovery process throughout the past 14 months.

The Astros entered the lockout with an open spot on the 40-man roster, perhaps in anticipation of this exact scenario. No corresponding move will need to be made.

Astros’ Deal With Justin Verlander Not Yet Official

By Darragh McDonald | December 2, 2021 at 8:08am CDT

As of last night, the Collective Bargaining Agreement between MLB and the MLBPA has expired and the league is officially in a lockout, meaning that no transactions will be permitted until a new CBA is ratified. This outcome had been widely anticipated throughout the industry, which is why there has been such a frenzy of deals in recent weeks, as many teams and players tried to cram in some of their offseason business before the lockout arrived.

One such deal that was reported a couple weeks ago was the Astros agreeing to re-sign Justin Verlander to a $50MM guarantee over two years, with an opt-out after 2022. However, Jon Heyman of MLB Network notes that the deal has not yet been announced and doesn’t seem to be official. Furthermore, the official MLB page for Houston’s 40-man roster doesn’t list Verlander’s name, nor does the signing appear on Verlander’s transaction tracker.

At this point, it’s unclear why the deal was not officially inked before the CBA expired and there’s no reason to suspect that it’s in any sort of jeopardy. However, it is at least noteworthy that it will apparently remain in a state of limbo as long as the lockout continues.

Verlander’s last full season was 2019, where he threw 223 innings, racking up 300 strikeouts with an ERA of 2.58, winning the AL Cy Young that year. However, Tommy John surgery put a halt to his 2020 after throwing just 6 innings and caused him to miss the 2021 season entirely. Shortly after the end of the season, the 38-year-old held a showcase to demonstrate that he was back to full strength and seemed to have succeeded in that regard, garnering robust interest in his services. About a week later, the reports of the deal with Houston emerged.

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