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Kenley Jansen

NL Notes: Jansen, Sky Sox, Braves

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Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen won’t discuss an extension during the season, which means he’s highly likely to test free agency next winter, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times writes. Jansen says there are currently no discussions between the two sides. “I’m not going to talk about it,” he says. “I’ll just want to talk about that in October.” The Dodgers reportedly did not discuss a long-term contract with Jansen while they were reaching their arbitration-avoiding $10.65MM deal with him in January. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk pointed out at the time, top Dodgers exec Andrew Friedman tended to focus on cheaper relief pitching when he was with the Rays. The Dodgers do, however, have a much bigger budget, despite their relatively thrifty offseason, and their interest in Aroldis Chapman before revelations of his domestic violence issue this past winter perhaps indicates somewhat of a willingness to pay heavily for a top reliever. Jansen certainly fits into the “top reliever” category, given his 2.41 ERA with a spectacular 13.8 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 last year and his long track record of success. Here’s more from the National League.

  • The Colorado Springs Sky Sox, currently the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate, will soon meet with San Antonio’s city council to discuss potential plans to move the franchise there, Brent Briggeman of the Colorado Springs Gazette writes. “If the City of San Antonio, the 37th largest TV market in the country, calls and says they would like to talk about a downtown stadium and the possibility of bringing Triple-A Baseball to San Antonio, it would be imprudent as business owners not to listen,” say the Sky Sox in a statement. The move would, apparently, be contingent upon San Antonio building a downtown ballpark appropriate for Triple-A baseball. The Elmore Sports Group, which owns the Sky Sox, also owns the Double-A San Antonio Missions, currently a Padres affiliate. The Sky Sox have been in Colorado Springs for nearly three decades, serving as the Rockies’ longtime Triple-A home most of that time before a recent switch to the Brewers.
  • Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez expresses concern about the team’s bullpen in a three-part Q+A with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s David O’Brien (1, 2, 3). Gonzalez expresses confidence in the ability of both Arodys Vizcaino and Jason Grilli to close, and expresses a level of comfort with veterans Jim Johnson and Eric O’Flaherty. He does, however, hope that the team can improve its performance in the middle innings this season. Gonzalez says he doesn’t feel any more pressure than usual given that this will be the Braves’ last season in Turner Field before moving into a new ballpark next year. “I think you can do both – I think you can develop [young players] and I think you can win games,” he says. “I’m not going to say we’re going to go out and win 110 games or any of that crazy stuff, but as far as pressure I don’t feel any different from any other year.”

No Extension Talks Between Dodgers, Kenley Jansen

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The Dodgers didn’t talk about a multi-year contract while in negotiations over Kenley Jansen’s deal for 2016, the closer tells MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick.  The two sides avoided arbitration by settling on a $10.65MM salary in Jansen’s last year of arb eligibility, and he’ll hit free agency after the season.

As Gurnick put it, Jansen mentioned the lack of long-term talks with “the implication being that he wished [the team] had” discussed keeping him in Los Angeles beyond 2016.  Still, Jansen seemed at peace with the one-year deal, saying “at the end of the day, it’s just business. I’ve got to move forward.  Who knows what’s going to happen after this year?  It’s not in my control.  All I can do is stay healthy, help my team win and when the year is over, I can’t predict the future.”

Though president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has far more financial resources available to him in L.A. than he did in Tampa Bay, Friedman’s modus operandi with the Rays was to acquire relief pitching at a low price, a tactic that often resulted in great success (i.e. Fernando Rodney, Kyle Farnsworth).  Continuing this strategy would allow Friedman and GM Farhan Zaidi to spend the Dodgers’ many millions on more stable positions than the often-inconsistent relief market.  With Chris Hatcher, Yimi Garcia and Pedro Baez already on board, Jansen himself would understand if one of the Dodgers’ current relievers will be his replacement.

“They can close — Hatch, Yimi, Pedro.  I’m not mad at that. If that’s the road they want to go, who knows? This day I’m a Dodger. I’ll just continue to keep improving and help the team win and be better every day,” Jansen said.

Then again, the Dodgers also attempted to bolster their pen with a much more high-priced arm in Aroldis Chapman this past winter, before concerns over an alleged domestic violence incident involving Chapman scuttled the trade.  Jansen said he had no hard feelings about a deal that would’ve relegated him to a setup role, saying that Friedman contacted him to discuss the failed Chapman trade once the news broke.

In terms of pure on-field performance, Jansen is certainly worthy of a multi-year commitment after four excellent years as the Dodgers’ closer.  The righty has a 2.28 ERA, 4.89 K/BB rate and a whopping 528 strikeouts over 340 innings in his career, and he’ll be a big target on the open market next winter.  (If not the biggest free agent closer, as Chapman is also in the last year of his contract.)  One concern beyond cost for both the Dodgers and other teams could be Jansen’s history of heart issues, though those problems haven’t cropped up in the last few years.

Dodgers, Kenley Jansen Avoid Arbitration

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The Dodgers and standout closer Kenley Jansen have avoided arbitration, according to a club announcement. Jon Heyman tweets that Jansen will receive a hefty $10.65MM salary for 2016 — his final season before qualifying for free agency. Jansen, a client of the Wasserman Media Group, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn an $11.4MM payday this winter.

Arbitration Breakdown: Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Kenley Jansen

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Over the next few days, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Mark Melancon

As young fireballers have gotten more opportunity to close, more arbitration cases with few comparables have emerged. Last year, I wrote about such a foursome of closers who had reached second-year arbitration eligibility, and this year I am writing about two of those closers, Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen, along with Mark Melancon (who I wrote about separately last year). My arbitration model projects each of these pitchers to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM this winter, each of which would break Jim Johnson’s current record of a $3.88MM raise for a third-year eligible closer.

Depending on how different statistics are weighed, they all have a compelling case to break this record. Johnson’s $3.88MM raise came after he had a 2.49 ERA and 51 saves in 68 2/3 innings, but Johnson struck out just 41 batters that season. He also only had 72 total saves at that point in his career. Although pre-platform performances generally do not matter outside of first-time-eligible arbitration salaries, one large exception I have found is career saves for closers. It is clear that having a history of being a closer matters, which means that Chapman’s 146 career saves, Melancon’s 121 saves, and Jansen’s 142 saves will all help them have better arbitration cases than Johnson did with 72 career saves.

Melancon also had 51 platform-year saves, matching Johnson’s 51 in his platform year in 2012. Along with his 2.23 ERA in 76 2/3 innings, he should have little trouble topping Johnson’s $3.88MM raise after his 2.49 ERA in 68 2/3 innings. Melancon’s $4.6MM projected raise seems about right.

Although Chapman only had 33 platform-year saves, his 1.63 ERA and aforementioned 146 career saves have led him to get an even bigger projected raise than Melancon. His projection actually slightly exceeded the Kimbrel Rule maximum, which is why he is projected for $12.9MM instead of the $13MM figure that was actually forecast by the model. In spite of the lower platform-year save total, Chapman’s vastly superior ERA and greater bulk of career saves give fair reason to assume he will probably get a bigger raise than Melancon, whose case is a straightforward improvement over Jim Johnson’s 2013 case. Both pitchers are likely to get raises between $4MM and $4.85MM.

Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen is projected to land a $4MM raise, which would just barely top Johnson’s record. Jansen had 36 platform-year saves, but 142 career saves, so he has fewer platform-year saves but almost double Johnson’s career saves. His platform-year ERA (2.41) is a bit better than Johnson’s was, although it came in fewer innings (52 1/3 versus 68 2/3) due to the fact that Jansen opened the season on the disabled list with a foot injury. I could see Jansen failing to make the case that he should get a larger raise than Johnson did, although if Melancon or Chapman set new records, he could easily argue that those are more applicable comparisons.

It is difficult to find pitchers other than Johnson that would apply to this trio of players. Jose Valverde had 44 platform-year saves going into his 2009 case, in which he earned $3.3MM, and he did have 142 career saves. However, his ERA was 3.38. A year prior to that, Francisco Rodriguez had a $2.95MM raise with similar numbers, but that case would be even more stale than Valverde’s. Joel Hanrahan got a $2.94MM raise with 36 saves going into his 2013 case, but he only had 96 career saves at that point. Johnson’s case against appears more applicable for all three of these closers.

Each of these three players could set the market for each other, so their raises are likely to be highly interdependent. They are also likely to set the market for future closers, now that more players will presumably reach their third year of arbitration eligibility with a career of closing behind them. I think that my model probably has appropriately guessed their salaries for 2016, but if it is wrong, it will probably be either too high on all three, or too low on all three.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL West Notes: Jansen, Kendrick, Lee, McGehee, Lyles

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The sudden nature of Kenley Jansen’s unavailability on Wednesday evening led to a good deal of speculation following the contest, especially when the Dodgers saw a two-run ninth-inning lead turn into a loss after Jansen’s bullpen mates couldn’t hold off the Rockies. After the game, manager Don Mattingly told reporters that Jansen wasn’t available and that he learned as much during the game, but he provided no further details. Bill Plunkett of the O.C. Register was among those to report yesterday, however, that Mattingly was merely respecting his closer’s wishes. Jansen woke up Wednesday morning feeling sick and dehydrated, and he told the team in the fifth inning of the game. Given his symptoms and history of heart problems, the Dodgers game him an IV and performed an electrocardiogram, after which the doctor recommended that he not play. Jansen said frustration and feeling as though he let the team down were the reasons that he did not wish to address the media Wednesday evening. The 27-year-old righty has been perfect since returning from the DL this season, firing six scoreless innings with an 11-to-0 K/BB ratio.

Here’s more from the NL West…

  • In other Dodgers injury news, MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick reports (Twitter links) that Howie Kendrick, who was injured while sliding into third base on Wednesday, underwent an MRI that revealed no structural damage. Kendrick, however said he “[doesn’t] know what will happen” if the knee is not feeling any better today, suggesting that he could miss a bit of time with the injury. Gurnick also says that right-handed pitching prospect Zach Lee has been experiencing a tingling sensation in his fingers and is being examined by doctors in Los Angeles. That’s a troublesome ailment for a team that is working with a thin rotation. Lee, long regarded as one of L.A.’s more promising arms, has a 2.38 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 56 1/3 innings at Triple-A this season.
  • Giants GM Bobby Evans addressed the team’s third base situation in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM yesterday and indicated that recently optioned Casey McGehee could return in the near future (Twitter links). Said Evans: “We’ve given Matt Duffy a long look there and we’ll continue to, there’s a chance McGehee could be back up here soon as well. We’ll continue to monitor that, but we have fallback options in that area.” The Giants will certainly hope that McGehee can solidify the position, and he does indeed seem to have corrected his swing at Triple-A. In 46 plate appearances with Sacramento, McGehee is hitting a hefty .357/.391/.571 with a pair of homers and three doubles. Giants third basemen are hitting .255/.294/.380, though McGehee’s own struggles at the plate have contributed to that rather unimpressive collective effort.
  • Rockies right-hander Jordan Lyles, who is out for the season due to a foot injury that he describes as “Tommy John for my toe” (Lyles has a torn ligament in his big toe), knew that he needed surgery when he took the hill for his last outing, writes the Denver Post’s Nick Groke. “I was trying to hold off the inevitable,” said Lyles. “They didn’t think I’d be able to handle the pain. But being a hard-head, I said, ’Well, let’s see about that.'” Lyles said that making the final start, which he left in the second inning, didn’t worsen his injury anymore, as the damage had already been done. Rather, he took the mound simply because he “was trying to be a good teammate.” Lyles adds that during his last injury absence, he developed a split-fingered changeup to add to his pitch arsenal. “Now I’ve got a few more months to find something else,” he told Groke.

NL West Notes: Castillo, Olivera, Jansen, Peralta

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Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart joined Mike Ferrin of MLB Network Radio (audio link) to discuss last night’s multi-player deal sending Mark Trumbo to the Mariners. He explained that Welington Castillo (acquired in the deal) was not initially a backstop that had interested him upon taking the helm in Arizona — as he hinted, the club conceivably could have made that move when shipping Miguel Montero to the Cubs — but that the loss of Tuffy Gosewisch forced the team’s hand. “The first guy on my list of catchers was [Dioner] Navarro up in Toronto,” said Stewart, who explained that he “had [him] in my sights even in the winter months, before the Winter Meetings.” Stewart added that prospect Gabby Guerrero, who also comes over in the trade, impressed the club this spring.

That deal is a subject that Steve Adams and I tackle in today’s podcast, which will be available in a few hours. Meanwhile, here’s more from the NL West:

  • New Dodgers infielder Hector Olivera will make his professional debut tomorrow at Double-A, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. Director of player development Gabe Kapler had positive things to say about Olivera’s early time in the organization, as Plunkett also reports. “He clearly can handle either” second or third, Kapler added.
  • Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen was unavailable last night for unknown and somewhat mysterious reasons, as Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com reports. Something apparently occurred during the game itself that changed his status, but what that is has yet to be reported. Meanwhile, four other relievers oversaw a 9th-inning meltdown in Colorado. After the game, the team said that Jansen “wasn’t feeling well, while ESPN’s Rick Sutcliffe tweeted that he was “sending [his] prayers” to the Dodgers and their closer, adding to the intrigue. The outstanding power pitcher has dealt with heart issues in the past, including experiencing an irregular heartbeat while in Denver.
  • Diamondbacks outfielder David Peralta has changed agencies and is now a client of ACES, Devan Fink tweeted recently and ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick confirms (Twitter link). The 27-year-old has quickly established himself as a solid major leaguer, and owns a .280/.323/.460 slash line in his first 490 plate appearances. With just 120 days of service accumulated last year, he’ll likely not qualify for arbitration until 2018.

Kenley Jansen Out 8-12 Weeks Following Foot Surgery

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The Dodgers have announced that standout closer Kenley Jansen has undergone foot surgery that comes with an eight- to 12-week timeline for recovery. Via Jon Weisman of Dodger Thoughts, the Dodgers’ PR team released the following statement:

“This morning at Cedars-Sinai in Los Angeles, Dodger pitcher Kenley Jansen underwent surgery to remove a growth from a bone in his left foot. This was discovered when Kenley reported discomfort while running last week. A subsequent X-Ray, MRI and CT scan showed the problem in the 5th metatarsal of his left foot. The surgery was performed by Drs. Earl Brien and David Thordarson under the direction of Dr. Neal ElAttrache.

Jansen will be on crutches for about 10 days and then a boot for 3-4 weeks. How he progresses during the rehab process will determine his return to competition, but it is expected to be approximately 8-12 weeks.”

An eight-week recovery would mean that Jansen is ready to go come April 14, whereas a 12-week recovery would keep him shelved through May 12. While the Dodgers possess a deep roster that many consider to be among the most talented in the game, the loss of Jansen for upwards of six weeks of the regular season would be a significant blow, particularly considering the fact that the bullpen is considered to be an area of weakness.

Joel Peralta, Paco Rodriguez, J.P. Howell and Brandon League all seem like locks to open the year in the Dodger ’pen, while other candidates include Chris Hatcher, Pedro Baez and Juan Nicasio. The Dodgers have also brought in David Huff, Sergio Santos, Erik Bedard and, most recently, David Aardsma as non-roster invitees to Spring Training. Among that group, Santos and Aardsma do have closing experience, though neither seems likely to go from minor league signee to primary ninth-inning option for manager Don Mattingly.

The news of Jansen’s injury makes yesterday’s report that the Dodgers are seeking to add another bullpen arm more logical. Among the free agent options for president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, GM Farhan Zaidi and VP Josh Byrnes to choose from are Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano, Joba Chamberlain and Phil Coke. Jonathan Papelbon is also, of course, available on the trade market and was quite effective closing games for the Phillies last winter. For what it’s worth, Friedman should be plenty familiar with Soriano, as Soriano spent the 2010 season — arguably the best of his career — with the Rays.

Arbitration Breakdown: Greg Holland, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, Steve Cishek

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Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Four relievers enter their second year of arbitration eligibility this winter, with a chance to collectively make a huge impact on that market. Each will influence each other’s salary as they did last year, and will influence many players that follow in the coming years. Greg Holland, Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Steve Cishek each became full-time closers during their second full seasons in 2012, and have dominated hitters since.

Becoming a closer so early was a rare feat just a few years ago. Teams used to give three-year or four-year deals worth upwards of $10 million per year for an “established” closer. Players like Francisco Cordero, Joe Nathan, Mariano Rivera, Brad Lidge, Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano, and Jonathan Papelbon signed such deals that began between 2008 and 2012, and few of those worked out. As I wrote several years ago, teams were paying far more per WAR for relievers than any other position on the diamond by far. Obviously the measurement of WAR is tricky, but regardless of how it is measured, it was clear that allocating $10 million to a guy to throw 60 innings three years down the line was not working out for many teams.

Fortunately, something happened that gave a number of teams the opportunity to change their ways. An onslaught of talented young pitchers emerged onto the scene with incredible fastballs, and many were given the opportunity to be closers quickly. Craig Kimbrel is actually from the same service class as these four players but he signed a four-year deal last winter. However, that makes five teams who quickly established a young arm in the closing position and had some success with it. Of course, now that these guys have some experience, the price has gone up.

Holland had the best year of the foursome, with a 1.44 ERA and 46 saves. Jansen was no slouch with a 2.12 ERA and 44 saves, Chapman’s ERA was just 2.00 and he had 36 saves, while Cishek had 39 saves but a more pedestrian 3.17 ERA. As a result, the model predicted a $4.62MM raise for Holland, $3.5MM for Jansen, $3.1MM for Cishek, and $3.05MM for Chapman. The model weighs heavily on saves since the market for relievers has done so in recent years, so it has unsurprisingly ranked their raises by saves. Holland’s raise is actually subject to “The Kimbrel Rule,” which states that a player cannot beat the record for his role and service time by more than $1MM, so his projected raise is limited to $4.275MM (topping Francisco Rodriguez’s $3.275MM raise from 2007 by $1MM), which gives him a $8.95MM projected salary.

What makes these guys even more unique is the fact that so few teams have gone year-to-year in arbitration with their closers. Jason Motte, Jonathan Broxton, and Carlos Marmol have each gotten two-year or three-year deals in recent years. Obviously Kimbrel’s four-year deal meets those criteria as well.

In fact, the only closer with 30 saves in his platform season, 45 saves in his pre-platform seasons, and an ERA under 3.50 in the last five years who did get a one-year deal during his second year of arbitration was Jonathan Papelbon. He got a $3.1MM raise from the Red Sox in 2010 after putting together 38 saves and a 1.85 ERA. Before him, Francisco Rodriguez’s 2007 raise of $3.275MM is a possible clue (1.73 ERA and 47 saves), as could be Jose Valverde’s $2.7MM raise in 2008 (2.66 ERA, 47 saves), or Chad Cordero’s $2.05MM raise in 2008 (3.36 ERA, 37 saves). However, those last three cases are very old and are less likely to be considered in an arbitration case.

All four of the closers in question will basically have Jonathan Papelbon’s $3.1MM raise and whatever each other get as a reference. I think that there is a strong possibility that Chapman and Cishek do get right around their projected numbers, which are within $50K of Papelbon’s raise. I could see Chapman’s reputation pushing him a little higher, though. And I’m also inclined to agree with the model that Kenley Jansen and Greg Holland, with similar ERA’s and more saves than Papelbon, plus a few years of salary inflation behind their cases, are likely to top Papelbon’s raise. Jansen’s $3.5MM raise seems about right, and while I think the model’s estimate for Holland of a $4.62MM raise strikes me as unlikely, a Kimbrel rule-adjusted $4.275MM raise sounds reasonable.

If I had to guess, I think that these four guys will follow the model well. However, I think that they will either all collectively make the model look good, or the first guy will make it look bad, and the following three guys to sign will make it look worse as they affect each other’s cases. Without many historical comparables that look anything like this foursome, they will all become comparables for each other. Unless their teams follow the Braves and ink a multi-year deal, I would not be surprised if these four guys affect each other’s 2016 salaries as well.

Dodgers Avoid Arbitration With Kenley Jansen

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The Dodgers have avoided arbitration with closer Kenley Jansen, with the two sides agreeing to a $4.3MM salary for the coming season, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter). Jansen, 26, is a client of Wasserman Media Group.

Jansen's settlement amount comes in just above the mid-point between the hurler's $5.05MM filing figure and the team's $3.5MM counter. He falls a full half-million dollars shy of the projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Though Jansen has been among the most dominant relievers in the game — last year, in 76 2/3 innings, he maintained a 1.88 ERA with 13.0 K/9 against just 2.1 BB/9 — he has not racked up quite the save tallies (28 last year and 25 in 2012) of several other big-name closers who earned more in their first run through arbitration.

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