Reliever Notes: Chapman, Jansen, Melancon, Giants, Holland, Marlins
The Giants met this week with representatives of top free agent relievers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today (on Twitter) and Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link) report. Finding a solution for the ninth inning is perhaps the top priority for Giants GM Bobby Evans, so it’s not surprising to hear that he’s looking into the three best options on the open market. It’s far from clear at this point whether the Giants are particularly interested in any of these pitchers. It will certainly be interesting to see the strategic approaches of the players and teams in the market for premium closers. There are plenty of suitors circling, but they’ll surely be somewhat cautious in doling out potentially record-setting contracts.
- We took a look yesterday at the latest on Greg Holland, who’s a risky but intriguing alternative to the three major options just noted, but there’s more ground to cover today. The Cubs are among many organizations that have real interest in Holland, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. They certainly aren’t alone, as Jon Heyman of Fan Rag reports that clubs including the Rays, Indians, and Mariners — in addition to the many others who were reportedly on hand for his recent showcase — could still be involved.
- While the Marlins‘ priority is in the rotation, the club may consider bolstering its relief corps as an alternative, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. President of baseball operations Michael Hill suggests that the team will allow the market to “dictate[] the direction” that’s ultimately taken, at least to some extent, and that the Fish will explore all free agent and trade possibilities. But if the price for a worthwhile rotation addition proves too steep, the organization may perhaps pivot a bit. “You see the trends now, and the analytics, and they may say you don’t want to face guys a third time through the lineup,” Hill said. “It puts more of an emphasis to have a stronger bullpen. A lot of our success this year was because of our strong bullpen.” Frisaro notes that the Marlins have long been interested in Chapman, though it would seemingly be a big surprise were the club to enter his market in earnest.
Pitching Rumors: Dodgers, Cubs, Pirates, Braves, Rockies, Padres
The Dodgers have real interest in pursuing free agent reliever Aroldis Chapman, Andy McCullough suggests (Twitter links). While we’ve heard plenty of indication that the organization also intends to make a bid on its own departing closer, Kenley Jansen, it appears that the fireballing lefty also represents a viable target for one of the game’s biggest spenders — despite the fact that the club jettisoned a deal to acquire Chapman last winter when domestic violence allegations arose. While Los Angeles has spent very little on its bullpen since hiring Andrew Friedman to run its baseball operations, the club obviously saw the value of a shut-down arm while leaning heavily on Jansen during the postseason. The big question remains just how hard the Dodgers will push, but their presence in the market for the two best-available relievers is certainly a boon for the earning power of both.
- Meanwhile, the Cubs are giving signals that they may be less inclined to pay top dollar for an established relief arm, as Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago reports. While the organization gave up a haul for Chapman at the trade deadline, and featured him frequently en route to a World Series win, Chicago would seemingly prefer to think outside the box to find its next dominant relief arm. GM Jed Hoyer spoke of a “targeted” approach to the roster, with the club set to “explore every avenue” in finding a replacement for Chapman. He cited two prominent examples of pitchers who failed as starters but later emerged in a late-inning role. “You never know who that guy’s going to be,” said Hoyer. “If you stop thinking that way, you have no chance to find that guy. You always want to think like: ‘OK, who is going to be that next Andrew Miller? Who’s going to be that next Wade Davis?'” As Mooney notes, Carl Edwards Jr. represents a possible internal option to take high-leverage opportunities, along with former closer Hector Rondon. Beyond that, Hoyer says, the team will “be looking at a lot of ways to acquire pitching” and will “explore every avenue” to add arms this winter.
- That somewhat unconventional approach has long been pursued by the Pirates, and Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review looks at the team’s rotation prospects this winter. Pittsburgh’s reclamation strategy has paid dividends time and again, but that may be tougher than ever with a thin market and perhaps added competition from other organizations who have seen how the Bucs’ approach can work. GM Neal Huntington emphasized that, while a veteran pitcher would “take[] some pressure off,” it remains hard for his small-budget organization to commit the years and dollars needed to compete on the open market. He stressed the need to continue pushing the development of the team’s homegrown starters, and certainly there are a variety of options already on hand, as MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth analyzed in taking stock of the Pirates’ offseason outlook. As he notes, and Huntington acknowledges, the club could consider bolstering that group by dealing from its fairly robust array of position-player talent.
- Another organization that could look to the trade market for starters is the Braves, as David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter), Atlanta has spoken with the Rays about staff ace Chris Archer, who is one of the game’s top starting pitching assets (even after a disappointing 2016 season) due in large part to his youth and highly appealing contract. That’s notable, but hardly should be read as an indication that the Braves will push the pedal to the floor for a top arm. GM John Coppolella stressed that the club is looking for value in all regards, and will continue to be opportunistic rather than stretching to add a premium starter. “Starting pitching is the main need that we have, and we want it badly,” he said. “That being said, if the numbers get crazy or the years get too long [for free agents], we’ll just stick with what we have. Or we’ll look to the trade market for short-term guys. … We’re going to look for value, whether it’s starting pitching, catching, whatever. If the market spirals too far out of control, we’ll just move on to other areas of need. Maybe build a killer bullpen and add to [an area that is a strength already.”
- Though the Rockies have received promising returns from their own rotation of late, the team isn’t satisfied with its pitching entering the winter, GM Jeff Bridich said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Certainly, that could take the form of a focus on a bullpen that struggled last year, though perhaps a move for a starter can’t be ruled out either. Bridich said that the club is “going to have to take some risks” this offseason and will seek to “improve the impactful pitchers we have.”
- The NL West-rival Padres also seem primed to take some risks on pitching (and in other areas), and Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the organization was one of many to send scouts to watch free agent reliever Greg Holland in his recent showcase. San Diego has done well recently in finding undervalued assets for the bullpen, and a targeted bet on someone like Holland could make sense — though he’ll presumably draw wide interest given his lofty established ceiling. Meanwhile, the Pads may also consider trade offers for their own controlled arms; Lin mentions Ryan Buchter, Brad Hand, and Brandon Maurer as pitchers who have “consistently drawn outside interest.” Though GM A.J. Preller didn’t exactly suggest that the team would be looking to deal, he acknowledged that clubs have come calling. “There’s definitely been clubs checking in on our bullpen,” he said. “They saw the jobs those guys did this year.”
Free Agent Rumors: Hill, Dodgers, Napoli, Logan, Braves, Hwang
There’s a flurry of offseason rumors flying about Twitter in the early stages of free agency and with the General Managers Meetings taking place in Arizona at the moment. Much of the talk is preliminary at this juncture, and many of the names connected to teams in the early-going won’t ultimately be targets in the long run. That said, the GM Meetings can certainly provide a forum to lay the groundwork for future free-agent deals and trades, and we even see the occasional big-name signing there (as was the case with Victor Martinez re-signing with the Tigers prior to the 2015 season). Here’s a rundown of all the latest free-agent chatter…
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters that he plans to reach out to the representatives for free agent left-hander Rich Hill (Twitter link via NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty). Cashman stressed that he’s planning to meet with the reps for a large number of free agents, but the Yankees have been an oft-speculated landing spot for Hill, who seems likely to cash in on a significant free agent deal this winter less than 18 months removed from a stint pitching for the Long Island Ducks of the independent Atlantic League. MLBTR ranked Hill 14th among free agents and pegged him for a three-year, $50MM deal.
- The Dodgers will also be in the mix for Hill, tweets Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times, and they’re having dialogue with his representatives as well as those for free agents Kenley Jansen and Justin Turner. The Dodgers already made qualifying offers to both Jansen and Turner, though it’s a no-brainer for each to reject in search of a more lucrative deal. It’d be somewhat of a surprise if the Dodgers let all three of their big-name free agents sign elsewhere this winter, although re-signing all three doesn’t seem to be an especially likely outcome, either.
- Mike Napoli is drawing early interest from the Mariners, tweets Jon Morosi of the MLB Network. As Morosi points out, Napoli has a good history with Seattle manager Scott Servais dating back to his Rangers days. Napoli would be a logical fit for the M’s, who project to have the unproven Dan Vogelbach as their starting first baseman next year. However, the possibility of an eventual timeshare situation developing between the two may not be palatable from Napoli’s vantage point, I wouldn’t think. And it would seem strange for the Mariners to part with a controllable lefty like Mike Montgomery to acquire Vogelbach only to block him a few months later by giving Napoli the everyday first base gig.
- Morosi also tweets that left-hander Boone Logan is generating some early interest, and FanRag’s Jon Heyman hears the same. Morosi notes that the Blue Jays and Giants both had interest in Logan at the non-waiver trade deadline this summer, though the Rockies elected not to trade him. Toronto, in particular, could probably use some left-handed relief help, as it was an area of weakness for them for much of the 2016 and they now stand to lose Brett Cecil to the open market. The 32-year-old Logan is probably best deployed as a lefty specialist, which may limit his market a bit, but he excels in that area. Logan held lefties to a putrid .142/.222/.255 slash in 2016 and a .225/.349/.254 slash in 2015.
- MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes that if the Braves are to sign a new catcher this winter, the likeliest targets are Jason Castro and Nick Hundley. Bowman tabs Wilson Ramos as a long shot and says he’d only land in Atlanta if his asking price declined significantly. Also per Bowman, Atlanta has never seemed all that interested in pursuing former Georgia Tech star Matt Wieters. Castro would give the Braves another strong defender and a left-handed bat to complement the right-handed bat of Tyler Flowers. Hundley, meanwhile, would be more of an offensive-minded backstop for the Braves.
- Korean third-baseman Jae-gyun Hwang will host a showcase for interested teams in Florida on Nov. 21, tweets Morosi. The 29-year-old didn’t draw a bid when posted last offseason but delivered another very strong season in the KBO this year. Hwang hit a career-best 27 homers and posted a .335/.394/.570 line with dramatically improved K/BB numbers in 2016 and could be a relatively low-cost option at the hot corner this winter.
Mets Notes: Cespedes, Bautista, Duda, Bullpen, Colon, d’Arnaud
The Mets are hoping to have some clarity on Yoenis Cespedes‘ intentions by the end of the Winter Meetings next month, general manager Sandy Alderson told reporters at the GM Meetings today (via ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin). “I think realistically, from our standpoint this year, things will probably have to resolve themselves a lot sooner than they did last year,” said Alderson in reference to Cespedes, who didn’t re-sign with the Mets last winter until Jan. 26. “…[C]ertainly, from our standpoint, between now and the winter meetings, and through the end of the winter meetings, would be the right time to get some of these issues resolved.” Alderson added that he’s already met with Cespedes’ representatives once, though no contract offers or financial figures were exchanged. He’ll meet with Cespedes’ agent again at the GM Meetings this week, and notably, he also stated that he doesn’t have a cap on the number of guaranteed years he’d be willing to offer Cespedes.
More from the Mets’ GM and more on the team…
- One bat the Mets could turn to if Cespedes departs is apparently Jose Bautista. James Wagner of the New York Times tweets that the Mets have some degree of interest in Bautista and have already reached out to his representatives to set up a time to talk this week. That’s not the first time they’ve been connected to Bautista, either, as Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi listed the Mets as a possible landing spot for Bautista last week. While it’d certainly be a surprise to see Bautista, who is defensively challenged in right field at this stage of his career, land with an NL club, his bat would indeed balance out the lineup in the event of a Cespedes departure. Alderson mentioned (as noted in Rubin’s piece above) that the team would need to balance out the batting order should Cespedes leave, as the team is already too left-handed even with Cespedes in the fold.
- Interest in Bautista would seem counter-intuitive with a trio of corner outfielders already on board in Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson and Jay Bruce, and while it’s fair to speculate that one of them could be moved to first base (Bautista and Bruce are the worst outfield defenders of the bunch by a wide margin), that doesn’t seem likely. Alderson said today that first baseman Lucas Duda will be tendered a contract, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post, which seemingly eliminates the possibility of shifting one of those players around. Of course, it should also be stressed that at this juncture of the offseason, the interest in Bautista is likely preliminary and one of a couple dozen avenues which the Mets could theoretically pursue.
- Also via Sherman (Twitter links), Alderson said that the team was planning to target late-inning relief help even before domestic violence allegations were brought forth against closer Jeurys Familia, so it stands to reason that they’ll certainly be in that market now that a possible suspension could be given to Familia. However, he also added that the Mets were never inclined to play at the top of the market, so it doesn’t seem likely that names like Kenley Jansen or Aroldis Chapman will be on New York’s radar.
- Sticking with Sherman, the New York Post scribe also tweets that Alderson repeatedly talked about the team’s current rotation depth, prompting Sherman to suggest that re-signing the beloved Bartolo Colon might not be a front-burner issue for the Mets, if it’s even a consideration for the team at all. From my vantage point, the depth is nice, but bringing back Colon on a one-year deal to provide depth and perhaps step into a swingman role if all of New York’s young arms make full recoveries still seems like a worthwhile pursuit. Speaking speculatively, however, if an earnest run at re-signing Cespedes and adding an impact late-inning arm are both on the docket as well, then perhaps the Mets feel Colon is more of a luxury than a priority.
- Lastly, Sherman tweets that Alderson said the team has to figure out a way to make the catchers that are already in-house better, which does seem to indicate that Plan A, for the time being, is to stick with Travis d’Arnaud next year. Kevin Plawecki and Rene Rivera remain on the roster as backup candidates as well, though none of that trio hit especially well last season, and d’Arnaud has yet to shed the “injury-prone” label that has hung over him for most of his career. The free-agent market bears a few options in the form of Matt Wieters, Jason Castro and Nick Hundley (plus Wilson Ramos, although he’s recovering from a torn ACL and seems likely to be out for the first couple of months of the 2017 season), though each of that grouping comes with some question marks as well.
Ten Players To Receive Qualifying Offers
Major League teams had until 5pm ET today to extend qualifying offers to their impending free agents — a decision that could significantly impact the market for a number of players this winter. For those unfamiliar with the process, the collective bargaining agreement stipulates that teams can make a “qualifying offer” to free agents that spent the entire season on the roster — midseason trades and signings are ineligible — if they wish to secure draft pick compensation for the loss of that player. The QO is a set one-year value determined by averaging the salaries of the top 125 players in the league. This year, the value of that sum comes to $17.2MM.
A player will have one week to survey the market and determine whether he wishes to accept the QO or reject in search of a more lucrative free-agent deal. If a player accepts the offer — something that has happened only three times since the system’s implementation in 2012 (Matt Wieters, Colby Rasmus and Brett Anderson) — that player is considered signed for the following season at $17.2MM. The contract is considered a free-agent deal, and as such, that player is not allowed to be traded without his consent until June 15.
If the player rejects a QO, he’s free to sign with any team for any amount (including the team from which he rejected the QO). However, whichever team signs a player that has rejected a QO must surrender its top unprotected pick in the upcoming draft (unless the player re-signs with the team that made the QO). The first 10 selections are protected, so those clubs would only be required to part with their second-highest pick. A team that signs multiple players that have rejected a QO continues to forfeit its top unprotected pick for each subsequent signing. The team that lost the free agent in question, meanwhile, will receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round. The order of comp picks, like the draft order itself, is determined based upon the previous year’s standings.
Last year there were a record 20 players to receive QOs (valued at $15.8MM based on 2015 salaries). There should be fewer this year, given the weak free-agent market, but there should still be a double-digit total of QOs extended. Here’s a list of who will reportedly receive qualifying offers thus far, and we’ll update this throughout the day and include the full list when the 5:00pm deadline has passed:
- Mark Trumbo, Orioles (link)
- Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies (link)
- Yoenis Cespedes, Mets (link)
- Neil Walker, Mets (link)
- Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays (link)
- Jose Bautista, Blue Jays (link)
- Ian Desmond, Rangers (link)
- Dexter Fowler, Cubs (link)
- Kenley Jansen, Dodgers (link)
- Justin Turner, Dodgers (link)
For a more in-depth explanation of the qualifying offer system, you can reference back to our post Explaining The Qualifying Offer System from last October. In the past, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has also spoken to both agents and general managers about the importance of avoiding the qualifying offer and the impact it has on teams’ decisions. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd, meanwhile, penned a pair of insightful posts in an effort to contextualize and assess the QO system and its purposes on the heels of the 2013-14 offseason.
Heyman’s Latest: Schwarber, Dodgers, Tigers, Red Sox
There’s a “very real” possibility slugger Kyle Schwarber will be able to contribute for the World Series-bound Cubs in their matchup with the Indians, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman. Schwarber has been out since early April after tearing the ACL and LCL in his left knee, but, as the Cubs were in the midst of defeating the Dodgers to clinch their first pennant since 1945, the 23-year-old returned to action Saturday in the Arizona Fall League. Schwarber accrued four plate appearances and said afterward that “it was overall a really great day for me” (via Jack Thompson of the Chicago Tribune). If Schwarber does return for the World Series, the player whom Cubs baseball president of baseball operations Theo Epstein deems a “special talent” could factor in as a DH and pinch-hitter.
More from Heyman:
- The Dodgers and soon-to-be free agent Justin Turner have mutual interest in renewing their relationship, according to Heyman, who notes that the third baseman’s age could prevent that from happening. The fact that Turner will turn 32 next month might cause the Dodgers to shy away from approaching or matching any mega-offers that come his way on the open market. Turner is in position to cash in on the heels of a three-year run in which he combined for 12.4 fWAR and slashed .296/.364/.492 in 1,383 plate appearances.
- As for another of the Dodgers’ key impending free agents, Kenley Jansen, the club will “make a nice attempt” to re-sign the closer, writes Heyman. The 29-year-old Jansen has been a premier reliever since debuting in 2010, so the Dodgers’ interest in keeping him is no surprise. He and fellow free agent-to-be Aroldis Chapman look primed to become the two highest-paid relievers in baseball history.
- Both Turner and Jansen will be among players landing $17.2MM qualifying offers after the season. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported earlier this month that Major League Baseball could introduce a new rule to preclude players from receiving a QO in consecutive offseasons. That now seems unlikely, though, as a source told Heyman there hasn’t been much discussion about it.
- The Tigers received calls on outfielder Justin Upton over the summer, ESPN’s Buster Olney reported Saturday. Heyman contends that dealing Upton would be a “tall task,” pointing to the amount of capable right-handed hitters in the offseason’s class of free agents. There are other factors that could stand in the way, too, including Upton’s 20-team no-trade clause and his right to opt out of his contract after next season. Upton just finished the first season of the six-year, $132.75MM deal he signed with Detroit last winter. A torrid September helped prevent a disastrous year for Upton, whose overall output – .246/.310/.465, 1.4 fWAR over 626 PAs – was nonetheless disappointing.
- The Red Sox are seriously considering exercising their $13.5MM club option for 2017 on right-hander Clay Buchholz, per Heyman. The weak group of free agent starters could lead Boston to pick it up, as Heyman concurs with MLBTR’s Steve Adams that he’d potentially end up with a multiyear deal on the market. The 32-year-old Buchholz has been inconsistent during his Red Sox tenure, including a subpar 2016 spent both in the rotation and bullpen, though he was highly effective as recently as last season and could garner trade interest if the club retains his rights.
Dodgers Notes: Chapman, Turner, Jansen, Grandal
The Dodgers’ decision to back out of last December’s agreed-upon Aroldis Chapman trade wasn’t solely the mandate of ownership but was a collective consensus between the baseball operations staff and the ownership group, writes Jon Heyman in his latest notes column at FanRag Sports. By the time the baseball operations staff reached out to managing partner Mark Walter about the domestic violence allegations with which Chapman was faced, they’d already decided the deal should no longer be pursued, and Walter agreed. Heyman also adds that the three prospects that would’ve gone to Cincinnati in that deal ultimately wound up in the Reds organization anyhow, as the proposed package was Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler and Brandon Dixon for Chapman. Those three all went to the Reds in the three-team trade that sent Todd Frazier to the White Sox. (The Dodgers received Trayce Thompson, Micah Johnson and Frankie Montas from the Sox in that deal.)
A few more notes on the Dodgers…
- Heyman also reports that there have been some “very preliminary contract talks” between the Dodgers and impending free agent Justin Turner, though there’s been nothing serious enough to indicate that Turner will forgo the open market this winter. Turner has said he’d love to remain with the Dodgers, but on the heels of a monster season, he should find widespread demand for his services. The 31-year-old (32 in November) batted .275/.339/.493 with 27 homers in 151 games this season and erased a dreadful first April/May with a torrid four-month stretch to close out the season. He also grades out as a premium defender at the hot corner, all of which contributed to his 4.9 rWAR and 5.6 fWAR in 2016. He’s also been a brilliant performer thus far in his short postseason career, hitting .405/.519/.667 in 52 plate appearances. While that doesn’t necessarily do much for his free-agent stock, it certainly can’t hurt him and figures to be brought up by his agents as they seek the best deal possible for their client this winter.
- Manager Dave Roberts tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports that he told Kenley Jansen before the 2016 season even began that he planned to get him at least a half-dozen outings in which he pitched more than one inning over the life of the regular season as a means for preparing him for the postseason, and that indeed played out. Jansen was also candid with Rosenthal in explaining that he felt his trust was betrayed when former GM Ned Colletti signed Brandon League to a three-year deal in the wake of Jansen being diagnosed with and treated for an irregular heartbeat. He didn’t mind the possibility of the Dodgers adding Chapman this winter, stressing that he only asked that Friedman be up front with him about what might happen. And it should be noted that former teammate A.J. Ellis also spoke to Rosenthal about how frank Jansen is when discussing free agency. Ellis compared him to Zack Greinke in some respects, noting that Jansen feels he’s earned his one opportunity at a lucrative free-agent deal and figures to go to the highest bidder.
- Yasmani Grandal‘s struggles at the plate this postseason are reminiscent of his offensive woes last year in the playoffs, after which he underwent shoulder surgery, but the catcher tells Pedro Moura of the L.A. Times that he’s not injured this time around. Grandal isn’t letting his lack of offense so far get to him, as he clearly laid out to Moura that his priorities are his defensive work/game-calling behind the plate, then drawing walks, then slugging at the plate. “I’m hitting seventh, and there’s a reason why they have me hitting seventh,” he said. “They want me to make sure I run the pitching staff like it’s supposed to be ran.” Grandal also talked about his frequent visits to the mound this October, explaining that the Dodgers are keenly aware of which players on opposing teams can relay signs to hitters at the plate when they’re standing on second base.
Free Agency Poll: Aroldis Chapman Or Kenley Jansen?
This year’s NLCS between the Cubs and Dodgers is underway, and electrifying closers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen figure to be among the series’ most important players. That was already the case for the two teams in the NLDS, when Chapman saved all three of the Cubs’ wins over the Giants – including two one-run affairs – and blew a save in Chicago’s only loss. Jansen had an ugly Game 2 showing against the Nationals, but he was otherwise tremendous, racking up saves in a pair of one-run contests before his all-important hold in a memorable Game 5. Jansen entered in the seventh inning Thursday and tossed 2 1/3 frames of 51-pitch, one-hit ball to preserve a 4-3 lead, which ace Clayton Kershaw closed out by retiring back-to-back hitters in the ninth.
One of Chapman or Jansen could very well secure the final out of this year’s World Series, after which the late-game aces are scheduled to become free agents. Given both their dominance and the ever-increasing importance of bullpens, Chapman and Jansen are in line to score the most valuable contracts ever awarded to relievers. The four-year, $50MM contract Jonathan Papelbon signed with the Phillies in 2011 is the record, but that deal’s days at the top are numbered. Now it’s a matter of figuring out whether Chapman or Jansen will land the richer pact.
The two will play their age-29 seasons in 2017, and their results have been similarly excellent since they debuted in 2011. In 377 combined innings with the Reds, Yankees and Cubs, Chapman has a 2.08 ERA, 15.18 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, 42.3 percent ground-ball rate, 12.8 infield pop-up percentage and 17.7 percent swinging strike mark. Across 408 2/3 frames with the Dodgers, Jansen has posted a 2.20 ERA, 13.92 K/9 and 2.62 BB/9 with a worse ground-ball and swinging strike percentages than Chapman (33.4 and 15.7), though he does have the superior infield fly rate (13.8). In terms of their ability to finish games, Chapman has a nearly 90 percent success rate (182 saves in 203 chances), while Jansen has converted more than 88 percent of his save chances (189 of 214).
There aren’t notable differences in their age or career outputs, though Chapman and Jansen do diverge in certain areas. Chapman is a left-hander and Jansen a righty, for starters. With the ability to occasionally hit 105 mph on the radar gun, Chapman is the hardest thrower in baseball, but Jansen can offer a lethal 98 mph cutter. Also of importance, there are no off-the-field red flags with Jansen. That isn’t true in Chapman’s case
Chapman was on track last offseason to join Jansen in the Dodgers’ bullpen, but a trade between them and the Reds fell through amid domestic violence claims. Chapman was alleged to have struck his girlfriend and discharged a firearm while alone in his garage last October. Criminal charges were never filed, so Chapman did not face a trial. Nevertheless, the league did suspend him for the first month of the season, and it’s conceivable that such a serious incident could damage Chapman’s earning power as a free agent. On the other hand, contenders lined up to acquire Chapman from the Yankees at this year’s trade deadline, and the Cubs eventually surrendered one of baseball’s top prospects – shortstop Gleyber Torres – in a package for him.
The fact that Chapman switched teams during the season means he’ll be ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, which will only boost his stock. The Dodgers will surely tender a QO to Jansen, meaning another club that signs him would have to give up a first-round pick in addition to the enormous contract it awards him. With other high-payroll teams like the Yankees, Giants and Nationals perhaps set to accompany the big-spending Cubs and Dodgers in the sweepstakes for Chapman and Jansen, they’re clearly going to earn sizable raises during the offseason. But which one will fare better on the open market?
(Poll link for Trade Rumors app users)
Which free agent closer will land the richer contract?
-
Aroldis Chapman 76% (6,259)
-
Kenley Jansen 24% (1,996)
Total votes: 8,255
Evans, Sabean Discuss Bullpen, Cain, Posey, Arroyo, Coaches
The Giants’ season ended in a devastating defeat that saw a gem from Matt Moore — two runs (one earned) on two hits and two walks with 10 strikeouts across eight innings — go to waste as five relievers turned a three-run lead into a one-run deficit in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the NLDS vs. the Cubs. In the wake of that stunning defeat, executive vice president of baseball operations Brian Sabean and general manager Bobby Evans spoke to the San Francisco media on Thursday, and Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area has published three different stories on the media session. (Giants fans would do well to read each in its entirety, as they contain far more quotes and context than this overview.)
Sabean and Evans emphasized that the Giants will pursue late-inning relief help this winter. A top-flight closer appears high on the wishlist for the longtime San Francisco baseball ops duo, though as Pavlovic notes, there won’t be a complete overhaul of the bullpen. The Giants are encouraged by the overall output of Derek Law, Hunter Strickland, Josh Osich, Steven Okert and Will Smith, and Evans confirmed that right-hander George Kontos will be tendered a contract as well. However, as Evans explained, the Giants believe there’s a benefit to all members of the relief corps if there’s no question as to who will be closing out games.
“The bullpen performs at a much higher level when you know who your ninth-inning guy is,” said the GM. “It puts everybody at ease and helps [manager Bruce Bochy] as he defines roles. With ambiguity, it creates tension and unknowns that can add to or detract from performance and ultimately lead to struggles.” As for how he’ll go about acquiring a closer, Evans implied a no-stone-left-unturned approach, stating that he’ll be active in free agency, trades and even evaluating his internal options.
Dodgers Notes: Greinke, Payroll, Free Agents
Jon Heyman’s latest column for FanRag Sports takes a look at the Dodgers’ summer trade talks and how the club is positioning itself for the future…
- The Dodgers were known to have had brief talks with the Diamondbacks about a possible Zack Greinke trade this summer, and Heyman reports that the Dodgers offered to cover roughly $25MM of the $34.4MM average annual value owed to Greinke through the 2021 season. D’Backs ownership didn’t want to retain any of Greinke’s contract and rejected the offer, saying the Dodgers “had plenty of money” to afford all of the right-hander’s massive future salary commitments.
- While Los Angeles obviously hasn’t been shy on spending in recent years, Heyman notes that the club “might have stricter limits on term that you’d think.” For instance, the Dodgers were only willing to offer Greinke five years (for $155MM) in free agency last winter, and some in the organization even felt that was a “stretch.” The Dodgers even floated a two-year offer to Greinke with a very high AAV of close to $40MM per season.
- With the Dodgers’ concerns about term length in mind, there are some mixed signals about how far the team is willing to go to re-sign its top free agents this winter, such as Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Rich Hill and Josh Reddick. While L.A. will “at least try” to retain all of them, at least one or two of the players could sign elsewhere. One rival official believes the Dodgers might let all of their own free agents walk, though later reasoned that Jansen is perhaps too important to the Dodgers’ bullpen to let go.
- Speaking of Dodgers’ spending, some in the front office believe there’s a chance the team could manage to get below the $189MM luxury tax threshold in the near future. The Dodgers have so many impressive prospects on the horizon that an influx of cheap, controllable young talent would allow the club to eschew the higher-priced names that ballooned their payroll to over $300MM in recent years. Heyman notes, however, that the Dodgers have already trimmed spending (by their standards) from that record high, with a 2016 Opening Day payroll of just under $250MM. It’s also possible that the luxury tax limit will be raised from $189MM in the new collective bargaining agreement, so Los Angeles and other big-market teams would have a bit more spending flexibility. Needless to say, getting under the luxury tax limit just once would provide massive financial savings for the Dodgers.
