Kris Bryant

NL West Notes: Melancon, Dodgers, Bryant

By Steve Adams | May 16, 2022 at 10:13am CDT

Diamondbacks closer Mark Melancon took his fifth loss Saturday — a remarkable stat given that he entered the year with 30 losses in 13 prior seasons — and manager Torey Lovullo answered somewhat vaguely when asked whether the four-time All-Star would remain in the closer’s role (link via Jose M. Romero of the Arizona Republic). “We’re going to still have some more discussions about his availability,” Lovullo said while also accepting responsibility for some of Melancon’s struggles, which have come amid a heavy workload. Melancon spent a week on the Covid list from April 29 through May 6 and then made six appearances in a span of nine days following his activation. He yielded 10 runs in 3 2/3 innings during that time.

Signed by the D-backs to a two-year, $14MM contract over the winter, Melancon has surrendered 14 runs (11 earned) on 20 hits and five walks with just four strikeouts in 11 2/3 frames thus far. His fastball, which averaged 92.2 mph in 2021, is now sitting at just 90.8 mph. Melancon’s swinging-strike and chase rates are actually better than last season’s marks, though, and he’s been plagued by a sky-high .396 average on balls in play. If the Diamondbacks do go in another direction, veteran Ian Kennedy has ample experience and is second on the team with five holds, having been Lovullo’s primary eighth-inning option thus far.

Some more notes from the division…

Dodgers lefties Clayton Kershaw and Andrew Heaney could both be ready for bullpen sessions this week, manager Dave Roberts said at yesterday’s media session (Twitter links via The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya). Kershaw felt some minor soreness while playing catch but could be cleared for a ’pen session by Wednesday. There’s no specific day set for a Heaney bullpen, but he’s also been playing catch. Kershaw has a 1.80 ERA through five starts and 30 innings this season but recently landed on the shelf owing to a hip issue that was treated with an epidural. Heaney has been out since mid-April due to shoulder trouble but opened plenty of eyes early in his Dodgers tenure. In 10 1/3 innings, Heaney allowed only an unearned run on four hits and three walks with a whopping 16 strikeouts. Brandishing a new-look slider in place of his former curveball and having all but scrapped his changeup, Heaney posted a mammoth 20.5% swinging-strike rate and 36.5% opponents’ chase rate prior to landing on the IL. He inked a one-year, $8.5MM deal with the Dodgers at the beginning of the offseason. Kershaw signed a one-year, $17MM deal to return not long after the lockout lifted.
Kris Bryant is joining the Rockies’ Triple-A affiliate for a pair of minor league rehab games this week, tweets Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette. If all goes well, he could be back in the lineup for the Rox by the weekend. Out since April 26 due to a back injury that the team hoped would require a minimum IL stay, Bryant will instead wind up missing three-plus weeks of action, at least. As Nick Groke of The Athletic writes, Bryant received a cortisone shot last week after an initial period of rest didn’t fully remedy his ailment. Bryant’s return could push the struggling Sam Hilliard to Triple-A, particularly with the out-of-options Yonathan Daza hitting well at the moment and thus giving the team a productive fourth outfield option. Utilityman Garrett Hampson is also capable of playing all three outfield spots, though he’s been primarily used as an infielder in 2022.

Rockies Place Kris Bryant On Injured List

By Anthony Franco | April 29, 2022 at 5:18pm CDT

The Rockies are placing Kris Bryant on the 10-day injured list, the team informed reporters (including Nick Groke of the Athletic). Bryant has been dogged by back soreness of late, although Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets that an MRI didn’t reveal any serious issues. That suggests it could be a fairly brief IL stay. To take Bryant’s place on the roster, corner infield prospect Elehuris Montero is being recalled from Triple-A Albuquerque.

Bryant hasn’t played since Monday. His IL placement can thus be backdated to April 26; assuming that’s the case, he’d be eligible to return a week from now. Bryant has gotten off to something of a slow start to his Colorado tenure. Signed to a seven-year, $182MM deal over the offseason, he hasn’t connected on a home run through his first 15 games. Bryant owns a .281/.338/.351 line over 65 plate appearances while splitting his time between left field and designated hitter.

The Rox have turned to Connor Joe and Sam Hilliard in left over the past couple days. Joe is off to an excellent .270/.349/.514 start and is an option in the corner outfield, at first base or at DH. Hilliard could see a few more at-bats while Bryant is out, although it’s possible the Rockies use this as an opportunity to give Montero his first run.

Acquired as part of the return from the Cardinals for Nolan Arenado, Montero split the 2021 campaign between Double-A Hartford and Albuquerque. He performed well at both stops, combining for a .278/.360/.529 showing in 500 plate appearances. Montero, whom St. Louis had already selected onto their 40-man roster over the 2019-20 offseason, didn’t get a big league call. He did, however, improve his stock in the eyes of prospect evaluators.

This past winter, both FanGraphs and Baseball America slotted the 23-year-old among the ten most promising prospects in the organization. Both outlets praised his combination of bat-to-ball skills and power, although each raised questions about his defensive acumen at third base and an aggressive approach at the plate. Nevertheless, both outlets suggested he could have enough offensive upside to be an everyday player.

Montero has gotten off to a fine .288/.356/.450 start over 91 Triple-A plate appearances. The Rockies can option him back to the minors, but it stands to reason they’ll want to get a lengthy look at him against big league arms at some point soon. Montero is in his final option year, meaning Colorado will have to carry him on next season’s Opening Day roster if they don’t want to lose him to another club.

NL East Notes: Phillies, Bryant, Marlins, Reynolds, Marte, Jansen, Chafin, Mets

By Mark Polishuk | March 20, 2022 at 8:01pm CDT

The Phillies were often speculated as a suitor for Kris Bryant this winter, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the team did indeed have interest in the former NL MVP. However, Bryant wanted as much long-term security as possible in the form of “at least a seven-year deal,” and he landed that desired contract with his seven-year, $182MM agreement with the Rockies. Philadelphia’s offer topped out at five years, Nightengale writes.

Given the terms, one wonders if the Phillies’ offer to Bryant was somewhat similar to the five-year, $100MM deal the club ended up giving to Nick Castellanos. Even that deal took some additional legwork, since as The Athletic’s Matt Gelb details, the front office first had to convince owner John Middleton that adding Castellanos was worth exceeding the luxury tax threshold for the first time in franchise history. Middleton has long stated that he was willing to pay the tax for a difference-making type of acquisition, and the end result is that the Phillies are now projected to sit above the $230MM threshold with an estimated $236.46MM tax number.

Rockies Sign Kris Bryant

By Anthony Franco | March 18, 2022 at 11:35am CDT

The Rockies have made the free agent splash they’d been seeking, announcing on Friday that they’ve signed Kris Bryant to a seven-year contract. Bryant, a client of the Boras Corporation, is guaranteed $182MM on the contract and receives a full no-trade clause as part of the deal. He’ll reportedly receive a $7MM signing bonus and will be paid a $17MM salary this coming season. He’ll then earn $27MM in 2023-24 before earning at a $26MM annual rate from 2025-28.

Bryant will step in as the new face of a franchise that has traded away Nolan Arenado and seen Trevor Story hit free agency over the past two offseasons. It’s the largest free agent investment in franchise history, one that’ll tie the four-time All-Star to Denver through his age-36 season.

Coming into the offseason, few would’ve expected Colorado to make this kind of major splash. The Rockies have finished fourth in the NL West in each of the past three seasons, and they’re coming off a 74-87 showing. Some outsiders have called for Colorado to tear things down and commit to a full rebuild, but ownership and the front office have maintained they don’t view the team as being all that far from contention.

From the outset of the offseason, Colorado has reportedly been targeting a major offensive upgrade to their outfield mix. The Rockies reportedly checked in with players like Kyle Schwarber and Michael Conforto as well, but it became clear in recent days that Bryant was their desired target. Whether they’d spend at the level it took to land him was in question, but owner Dick Monfort has signed off on a seven-year deal with a $26MM average annual value to bring in one of the game’s most recognizable stars.

Bryant, of course, earned that acclaim during his days with the Cubs. The second overall pick in the 2013 draft, he immediately entered pro ball as one of the top prospects in the game. Bryant lived up to those expectations, tearing through the minors for a season and a half. The Cubs delayed his big league debut a few weeks into the 2015 season to push back his path to free agency, but he debuted in mid-April and hit the ground running as a star.

The University of San Diego product hit .275/.369/.488 with 26 homers in his first season, claiming the National League’s Rookie of the Year award. Bryant did strike out at a slightly alarming clip that year, but he significantly improved his contact rate during his second season. The star third baseman hit .292/.385/.554 in 2016, winning the NL MVP and helping the Cubs to a 103-win season and their first World Series title in 108 years.

Chicago never became the multi-year dynasty some fans had expected, but Bryant continued to excel on generally good teams for the next few seasons. He combined for a .284/.390/.511 mark between 2017-19, ranking 17th among position players in FanGraphs Wins Above Replacement over that stretch. Bryant seemed on the path towards a free agent megadeal, but his production plummeted in 2020. During that year’s shortened season, he posted a lowly .206/.293/.351 line over 34 games. What kind of production the Cubs could expect from him — as well as how his free agent market might ultimately shake out — seemed very much up in the air going into 2021.

Bryant didn’t regain his MVP form last season, but he did bounce back from his 2020 downturn. He hit .267/.358/.503 over 374 plate appearances on the North Side. That wasn’t enough to keep the Cubs from a June-July skid that took them out of postseason contention, and it became clear they were likely to move the impending free agent by July 30. Minutes before the trade deadline, the Cubs shipped Bryant to the Giants for prospects Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian. That deal made Bryant ineligible to be tagged with a qualifying offer, so the Rockies won’t forfeit a draft pick to add him.

His production dipped a little bit in the Bay Area. Bryant hit .262/.344/.444 in 212 plate appearances in black and orange. Nevertheless, he hit the market coming off a productive .265/.353/.481 season line. Heading into his age-30 campaign with an MVP pedigree, he looked to have reemerged as one of the top prizes of this year’s class. MLBTR ranked Bryant as the winter’s #4 free agent in November, projecting him to receive a six-year, $160MM guarantee.

Bryant’s actual deal comes in above that mark, as he lands a seventh year and $22MM more, as well as the no-trade protection. Only Corey Seager, who got $325MM over ten years, has received a larger guarantee among free agents this winter. (Carlos Correa and Freddie Freeman still have an opportunity to surpass that mark). The loftiness of the investment perhaps suggests the Rox had to pay a premium to convince Bryant to join a club that’s not a clear immediate contender. For all of ownership’s and the front office’s confidence, Colorado still looks to have a weaker roster than those of the Dodgers, Giants and Padres in a loaded NL West.

There’s also the fact that Colorado’s last two position player superstars haven’t departed the organization on the best of terms. Arenado and the Rockies had a messy fall-out before they traded him to the Cardinals, with Arenado famously saying he’d felt “disrespected” by then-general manager Jeff Bridich. Story, meanwhile, said he was perplexed by the organization’s decision not to trade him at last summer’s deadline; there’s been no indication he’s considered re-signing since hitting the open market.

Bryant and the Rockies no doubt hope their long-term relationship will end more happily. It’s the biggest move yet made by first-year GM Bill Schmidt, who took over baseball operations when Bridich stepped down last April. There’s obviously plenty of risk in any kind of investment of this magnitude, and Bryant’s profile isn’t without some areas for concern.

As mentioned, his 2021 campaign — while a marked improvement over his 2020 numbers — wasn’t a return to peak level. Bryant’s 123 wRC+ was a personal low in any of his six career non-truncated seasons. By definition, that’s still strong work (23 percentage points above the league average offensive output) but it’s not the kind of production that’ll garner MVP support. And Bryant has never had the eye-popping batted ball metrics one might expect from a player who has had so much success.

His 88.2 MPH average exit velocity last season was right in line with the league mark. His average exit speed on balls hit in the air (91.4 MPH) was only a hair above average (90.9 MPH). Bryant fares better in metrics like hard contact rate (40% vs. 35.4% league mark) and barrel percentage (10.3% against a 6.6% league average), but both marks are more good than elite. He’s always drawn a fair share of walks and hasn’t been especially prone to strikeouts since his rookie year, but his peripherals have more closely aligned with a player who ranked 44th in wRC+ last season (out of 135 hitters with 500+ plate appearances) than with a superstar performer.

There’s no question manager Bud Black will pencil Bryant into the lineup on an everyday basis, although precisely where on the diamond remains to be seen. He has primarily played third base in his career, but Colorado has a Gold Glove caliber defender at the hot corner in Ryan McMahon. It seems likely that Bryant will spend the bulk of his time in the corner outfield, at least next season. He has generally rated as a competent defender in the corners, although he didn’t seem comfortable manning Oracle Park’s tricky right field during his couple months in San Francisco. Bryant has a little bit of experience in center field, but he’s never been a regular option there and would be miscast at that position in spacious Coors Field.

However the Rox plan to use him, they’ve made a hefty financial commitment to add some star power to the lineup. The specific financial breakdown has yet to be reported, but Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates that adding a $26MM salary to the books in 2022 would bring the Rox’s player commitments to around $141MM. That’s only a touch below 2019’s franchise-record $145MM Opening Day mark, leaving little room for further additions unless Monfort signs off on an uncharacteristic level of spending.

There’s enough uncertainty on the roster the Rockies would be ill-advised to rest on their laurels now. They’re clearly aiming to return to legitimate postseason contention, and areas like center field and the bullpen remain question marks. Colorado will have to continue to push forward — by expanding payroll beyond Monfort’s previous comfort level and/or dealing from a thin farm system for immediate help — if they’re to seriously make a run at hanging tough in the division. At the very least, though, the Rockies have signaled definitively as ever they view themselves as capable of taking on that kind of challenge — pulling off an agreement few would’ve seen coming sixth months ago.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network first reported Bryant was signing with the Rockies and the financial terms. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported the no-trade protection. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale first reported the contract breakdown (Twitter link).

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Latest On Rockies’ Outfield Search

By Mark Polishuk | March 16, 2022 at 4:40pm CDT

The Rockies are known to be looking for outfield help, and Jorge Soler and Corey Dickerson are among the names under consideration, according to MLB.com’s Thomas Harding (Twitter links). Nearer the top of the free market, Harding notes that Colorado continues to be interested in Kris Bryant, though Joc Pederson is apparently behind “other targets” on the team’s list. Harding reported yesterday that the Rox were looking at Pederson.

Multiple teams were known to be looking into Soler, who is fresh off winning World Series MVP honors after a remarkable turn-around. Soler was hitting only .192/.288/.370 over 360 plate appearances with the Royals when he was traded to the Braves at the deadline, and Soler was then sparked to a .269/.358/.524 slash in his 242 PA for Atlanta during the regular season. Though a positive COVID-19 test kept him from most of the NLCS, Soler made up for it by posting a 1.191 OPS over 23 PA in the World Series, helping lead the Braves to the championship.

The idea of Soler’s power bat in Coors Field is surely tempting to a Rockies team that has been surprisingly lacking in consistent hitting over the last few years. As last season and even his 2020 campaign with the Royals would indicate, Soler is not exactly the picture of consistency himself, yet he isn’t far removed from a 2019 season that saw him lead the AL with 48 home runs.

Adding Soler to the outfield may also not be Colorado’s chief goal, as Soler has never been a defensive plus in right field. Theoretically, the Rockies could install Soler mostly at the new DH spot and only sparingly use him on the grass, while then acquiring another player as more of a regular outfield option.

Dickerson could potentially be a fit for such a role, even if the Rockies already have Charlie Blackmon and Raimel Tapia as left-handed hitting outfielders. While Dickerson is no longer the standout defender he was during his Gold Glove-winning 2018 season, he can at least play some center field and right field in a pinch, as well as his customary left field role.

The Rockies are very familiar with Dickerson, as he was an eighth-round pick for the team in 2010 and he spent his first three big league seasons in the purple pinstripes. Colorado dealt Dickerson to the Rays in January 2016 as part of what became a key trade in recent Rockies history, as German Marquez came to Denver as part of the return.

After posting a 118 wRC+/121 OPS+ and hitting .288/.329/.508 over 2701 PA from 2014-19, Dickerson’s production has been closer to league average over the last two seasons, though his bat did perk up after being dealt to the Blue Jays in June. Between a broken foot and some off-the-field personal tragedy, “the last two years really, really weighed on me,” Dickerson recently told Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, though his brief stint with the Jays “lit my fire again.” Dickerson has also been employing a new training approach in the offseason to improve both his fielding and his hitting.

Mariners Acquire Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez From Reds

By Anthony Franco | March 14, 2022 at 6:20pm CDT

The Mariners made a massive addition to their lineup, announcing the acquisition of star outfielder Jesse Winker and third baseman Eugenio Suárez from the Reds. Seattle will reportedly assume the entirety of the three years and $35MM remaining on Suárez’s contract. In return, they’re sending pitching prospect Brandon Williamson, outfielder Jake Fraley, right-hander Justin Dunn and a player to be named later to Cincinnati.

Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has been open about his hunt for offensive help throughout the winter. Seattle already signed reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year contract, but they hadn’t previously done a whole lot to bolster the offense aside from a deal that brought in Adam Frazier from the Padres.

Winker got his due as a first-time All-Star last season, but he’s quietly been an excellent hitter for some time. He’s had a wRC+ of 127 or better (output at least 27 percentage points above the league average) in four of his five career seasons. The former supplemental first-rounder has been particularly impressive the past couple years. Going back to the start of the 2020 campaign, he owns a .292/.392/.552 line with 36 home runs over 668 plate appearances.

Last year, he tallied 485 trips to the dish and hit a personal-best .305/.394/.556 with a strong 10.9% walk rate and a 15.5% strikeout percentage that’s more than seven points lower than the league average. Winker rarely swings and misses or chases pitches outside the strike zone, and he’s capable of doing plenty of damage when he makes contact. He posted well above-average marks in terms of barrel rate, hard contact percentage and average exit velocity.

It’s easy to see the appeal for Seattle in adding that kind of offensive firepower to the lineup. Despite winning 90 games, the Mariners didn’t have an especially productive offense last year. Seattle hitters ranked just 21st in team wRC+ (excluding pitchers). They finished 22nd in total runs scored. Winker should be a massive boon to a unit that’ll need to improve if they’re to snap a 20-year playoff drought.

That said, Winker isn’t entirely without flaws. He’s limited to the corner outfield defensively, and he’s never rated favorably in the eyes of public metrics. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him as 20 runs below average in 2,335 2/3 career innings in the corners (in addition to three runs below average in 138 innings as a center fielder). Statcast’s Outs Above Average has him at -21 plays as a big leaguer, including a -7 mark last season.

The left-handed hitting Winker also has some of the league’s most notable platoon splits. He’s been downright elite in his career against right-handed pitching (.313/.405/.556), but his numbers without the platoon advantage (.188/.305/.295) have been unimpressive. Winker’s probably not a strict platoon player — he does at least draw a boatload of walks against southpaws — but his impact has been concentrated to feasting on righties.

Perhaps of more concern than any aspect of his talent, though, has been his lack of volume. Winker has gone on the injured list in every full season of his MLB career. Heading into last season, the 28-year-old had never tallied even 400 plate appearances in a big league campaign. He picked up a personal-high in playing time last year, but he ended the season on the IL after suffering an intercostal strain in mid-August (from which he unsuccessfully tried to return in September).

That all makes Winker a tricky player to value, but there’s little question he’ll improve Seattle’s overall offense. He’ll presumably step in as the M’s regular left fielder, joining an outfield that could feature Jarred Kelenic in center and Mitch Haniger in right. Former Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis is coming off another serious knee injury, and Dipoto told reporters (including Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times) he’s unlikely to be ready for the start of the season as they proceed with caution in his recovery. Former top prospect Taylor Trammell and utilityman Dylan Moore could be depth options behind the presumptive season-opening trio of Winker, Kelenic and Haniger. Julio Rodriguez, among the top handful of prospects in the game, mashed at Double-A at the end of last season.

Winker will probably be in the Pacific Northwest for at least the next two seasons. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $6.8MM salary via arbitration this year. He’ll be controllable via that process once more next winter before reaching free agency in advance of his age-30 season.

In order to entice the Reds to part with a player of Winker’s caliber, the M’s are taking on far more money than just his projected arbitration figures. Cincinnati signed Suárez to a $66MM extension in March 2018, which will pay him a bit more than $13MM annually for the next three seasons. (The deal also includes a $15MM club option for 2025). Initially, that looked to be a shrewd investment by the Cincinnati front office, as Suárez went on to earn down-ballot MVP support in each of the following two years. Yet after combining for a .277/.362/.550 line over that stretch, he’s struggled the past couple seasons.

Suárez hit .202/.312/.470 during the shortened 2020 campaign. That’s a ghastly batting average, but he offset it somewhat with a robust 13% walk rate and 15 homers in only 231 plate appearances. However, his issues at the plate mounted last year. His walk percentage dipped to a solid but no longer elite 9.8%, not sufficient to make up for an even lower .198 batting average. Suárez reached base at only a .286 clip — the sixth-lowest mark among the 135 players who totaled 500+ plate appearances. He still hit for power (31 homers), but the on-base issues and his inability to successfully acclimate to an ill-advised move from third base to shortstop kept his overall production in the realm of replacement level.

Clearly, the Mariners assumed Suárez’s deal as a means to acquire Winker. That said, it seems likely they’ll give him some opportunity to try and right the ship in his new environs. Seattle bought out longtime third baseman Kyle Seager at the end of the year. Abraham Toro looks like the in-house favorite for playing time at the hot corner, but Toro can bounce between the corners and second base as a bat-first utility option as well. Divish tweets that Suárez is likely to step in as the primary third baseman, at least to begin the year, with Toro deployed around the diamond as needed.

The acquisitions of Suárez and Winker will add around $20MM to the Mariners’ 2022 books. That puts this year’s estimated expenditures at $106MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s well above last year’s season-opening $73MM mark but nowhere close to franchise-record payrolls that exceeded $150MM from 2017-18. Precisely how much remains in the coffers isn’t clear, although it seems they’re content with the position player group. Dipoto told reporters (including Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) the club was unlikely to make further moves on that side of the ball. Seattle had been linked to big-ticket free agents like Kris Bryant and Trevor Story this offseason, but Dipoto called their pursuits of free agent hitters “dead ends.”

The Winker acquisition marked another aggressive move for a win-now Mariners team, but it’s a continuation of payroll-cutting efforts for the Reds. Cincinnati traded away Tucker Barnhart and lost Wade Miley on waivers for little to no return in November. They’ve listened to trade offers on their top three starting pitchers, and they moved Sonny Gray to the Twins for pitching prospect Chase Petty over the weekend.

This afternoon’s swap is the most notable to date, as the Reds slice around $20MM in 2022 commitments off the books. Of arguably greater import, they find a way out of the future commitments to Suárez. Only Joey Votto ($25MM) and Mike Moutakas ($18MM) have guaranteed money on the Cincinnati books in 2023, and the payroll slate is completely clean by 2024. Reds brass has pushed back against the idea they’re orchestrating a full teardown, but the recent subtractions of Winker and Gray make it more difficult for what had been an 83-79 team to contend this season.

Against that backdrop, it wouldn’t be surprising to see further subtractions by Cincinnati. Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle each have two more seasons of arbitration control, as Winker did. Both pitchers would bring back a haul if the Reds made them available, particularly with the free agent market essentially now bereft of mid-rotation options.

Even if the Reds have further moves on the horizon, however, the players they bring back should all factor into the mix in short order. Fraley and Dunn are immediate big leaguers, and Fraley seems likely to step right into the left field spot vacated by Winker’s departure. The left-handed hitter struggled in limited big league looks between 2019-20, but he showed reasonably well this past season.

Fraley picked up 265 plate appearances last year, hitting .210/.352/.369 with nine homers and ten steals. The batting average is obviously subpar, but the LSU product more than compensated with an elite 17.4% walk rate. Fraley’s extremely patient approach at the plate should make him a serviceable on-base option. He’s primarily been a left fielder in the big leagues, but he’s capable of covering center in a pinch. Fraley’s controllable through 2026 and isn’t on track to reach arbitration eligibility until 2024.

Dunn, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick who went to Seattle from the Mets in the Edwin Díaz/Robinson Canó trade. He’s made 25 starts over his three big league seasons, posting a 3.94 ERA in 102 2/3 innings. The 26-year-old’s peripherals don’t support that kind of run prevention; he’s benefitted from an unsustainable .205 opponents’ batting average on balls in play and has walked an untenable 15.5% of batters faced. Despite averaging a decent 93.8 MPH on his four-seam fastball last year, he only generated swinging strikes on 9.7% of his offerings (a bit below the 10.9% league mark for starters).

Like Fraley, Dunn is an affordable, MLB-ready piece though. He’s controllable through 2025 and won’t reach arbitration until next season. If the Reds do move one or both of Castillo and Mahle, Dunn could factor into the back of the rotation immediately. He might also be a candidate for a bullpen transfer — some prospect evaluators have long suggested he’d be a better fit in relief — where he could aid a Cincinnati bullpen that was among the league’s worst.

Fraley and Dunn are the more well-known parts of the return, but Williamson is quite likely the player the Reds value most of the trio. A second-round pick out of TCU in 2019, the southpaw has impressed evaluators since getting into pro ball. Baseball America ranked him as the game’s #83 overall prospect this winter (fifth in the Seattle system), noting that the 6’6″ lefty can run his fastball into the mid-90s and has a potential 70-grade curveball on the 20-80 scouting scale.

BA writes that the 23-year-old could develop into a #3/4 starter. FanGraphs slotted Williamson 61st on their recent Top 100 list, opining that control issues could limit his ability to work deep into games consistently but praising his repertoire and suggesting he could be “dominant” for five-six innings per start. Williamson pitched his way to Double-A last year, working 67 1/3 innings of 3.48 ERA ball with an excellent 33% strikeout rate and a fine 8.1% walk percentage. He seems likely to get a big league look at some point this season and may eventually work alongside college teammate Nick Lodolo in the Reds’ rotations of the future.

The Reds also pick up a player to be named later who is reportedly a notable part of the return. Moreover, general manager Nick Krall told reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com) they plan to reinvest some of the money they saved in free agency. Cincinnati fans may roll their eyes at their assertion, given the club’s cost-cutting efforts to date, but Krall reasserted that this was not going to be a multi-year teardown.

The deal offers a major shakeup to both organizations. The M’s continue to push forward in an effort to hang with the Astros (and perhaps the Angels) at the top of the AL West. The Reds’ hopes of contending were dealt another blow, but the front office continues to maintain they’re not punting on the 2022 campaign. Whether Cincinnati’s future moves back up that assertion remains to be seen, but there’ll be no shortage of demand if they turn their attention to trading away either Castillo or Mahle.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Mariners were acquiring Winker. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the Mariners were acquiring Suárez and that the Reds were acquiring Fraley, Williamson and Dunn. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that Seattle was taking on the entirety of Suárez’s contract. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the Reds were acquiring a player to be named later who “enhances” the quality of their return.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Rockies “Aggressively Pursuing” Kris Bryant

By Anthony Franco | March 14, 2022 at 2:57pm CDT

The Rockies are “aggressively pursuing” Kris Bryant, tweets Jon Heyman of the MLB Network. Nick Groke and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported this afternoon (on Twitter) that Colorado’s interest in Bryant was continuing.

This isn’t the first time the Rox have been tied to Bryant. They were reported to have interest in his services just before the lockout, but today’s link between the two sides reinforces that the club is actively involved in the pursuit a few months later. The Rockies have been known to be searching for offense, with a big bat to add to the outfield the primary target.

They’ve also been linked to Kyle Schwarber and Michael Conforto (although later reports threw some cold water on the possibility of Conforto winding up in Denver). Thomas Harding of MLB.com tweets that Schwarber and Conforto remain in play as possible alternatives if Colorado doesn’t get a deal with Bryant done.

The Rockies making a run at any one of those three outfielders might seem a bit counterintuitive, as Colorado’s coming off a 74-87 showing. For better or worse, ownership and the front office have maintained they’re trying to contend in 2022, in spite of losing Trevor Story and Jon Gray from an already below-average team. They’ve signed José Iglesias and Chad Kuhl to replace those respective players positionally, but those aren’t high-impact solutions. Bryant, needless to say, would be a much more notable and costly splash.

Colorado should have some payroll flexibility to accommodate a noteworthy free agent signing. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource currently estimates their 2022 commitments around $112MM, including projections for arbitration-eligible players. That’s already above last season’s Opening Day mark but well shy of the franchise-record $145MM figure from 2019. COO Greg Feasel said earlier this offseason that the Rox would push their player expenditures back towards that 2019 number over the coming two seasons.

Mariners On The Hunt For Right-Handed Power Bat

By James Hicks | February 19, 2022 at 11:59am CDT

In a profile of Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale outlined the team’s remaining offseason plans, noting specifically that Seattle hopes to add a right-handed power bat (ideally at third to replace the recently retired Kyle Seager) and a left-handed bat in the outfield. In addition to landing 2021 NL All-Star Adam Frazier in a November trade with the Padres, Dipoto already made one of the bigger offseason splashes of the pre-lockout free agent frenzy, inking reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year, $115MM deal to anchor manager Scott Servais’ rotation.

Given what’s already a relatively crowded outfield picture in Seattle (Mitch Haniger, Jarred Kelenic, 2020 AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, and uber-prospect Julio Rodriguez all figure to see significant time there, as could Frazier and former top-100 prospect Taylor Trammell), the outfielder Nightengale suggests Dipoto is targeting is likely to be of the versatile bench-bat sort. Any of Odubel Herrera, Travis Jankowski, Billy Hamilton, Gerardo Parra, Matt Joyce, or Billy McKinney could come without a significant commitment, and Dipoto might check in on Joc Pederson or Eddie Rosario if either is willing to take on a part-time role.

The right-handed power bat is unlikely to come cheaply, however. The obvious option on the current market is Kris Bryant, and it’s no surprise that nary a report on Bryant passes without a prominent reference to the Mariners. Given how much money Dipoto is known to have left to spend — the Mariners, who have one of the youngest rosters in the bigs, have just under $87MM in salary committed to the 2022 roster (per Roster Resource) — Bryant remains a very live possibility, as might Seiya Suzuki (though he’d contribute to the outfield glut). Trevor Story and (perhaps) Carlos Correa could also be on the table.

The presence of incumbent shortstop J.P. Crawford may be a roadblock to a major move at the position, since Dipoto has repeatedly stated that Crawford isn’t changing positions. The Fielding Bible ranked Crawford as the sixth-best defensive shortstop in baseball in 2021, though both Story and Correa ranked higher on that list. With Story reportedly uninterested in a position change and Correa on the hunt for a mega-deal, neither seems likely at this point barring a trade of Crawford for another piece.

With no other clear upgrade over utilityman Abraham Toro on the free agent market, Dipoto is likely to explore trade possibilities should Bryant sign elsewhere. With the A’s reportedly entering a fire sale, Matt Chapman is the obvious first port of call, though he’ll draw widespread interest and will command a small fortune in prospect capital. Seattle could also look to engage the Guardians on Jose Ramirez, though he’d take an even bigger bite out of the Seattle system than Chapman and is well on his way to an enormous payday when he becomes a free agent following the 2023 season. Josh Donaldson, who posted a solid-if-unspectacular .247/.352/.475 line in 135 games with the Twins in 2021, still has plenty of power and isn’t likely to cost much more than a willingness to eat a substantial chunk of the two years and $50MM (including an $8MM buyout of his 2024 option) remaining on his contract. The 2015 AL MVP could be an intriguing upside play, but he’d be a particularly risky bet for a club hoping to catapult into the upper echelons of the American League sooner rather than later.

Regardless of how Dipoto addresses the loss of Seager — indeed, he could well head into Opening Day with Toro manning the hot corner and reexamine the position at the trade deadline — the Mariners are sure to be a hot pick to take a major step forward in 2022 whenever the season gets rolling. After overachieving in 2021 with 90 wins and a spot at the periphery of playoff contention well into the season’s final week, the young M’s will be expected to contend for this year’s AL West title — particularly if, as expected, Correa doesn’t return to Houston. Should they add another big bat, don’t be surprised to see them picked as a dark horse to win a pennant as early as next season.

Mariners Notes: Haniger, Rodriguez, Kirby, Bryant

By Steve Adams | February 10, 2022 at 10:09am CDT

Mitch Haniger’s sensational rebound on the heels of four surgeries was one of the highlights in a generally exciting 2021 season for Mariners fans. The now-31-year-old Haniger belted a career-high 39 home runs in a career-high 691 plate appearances, announcing his return from a gruesome sequence of injuries with authority and cementing himself in the heart of Seattle’s order — at least for now.

Haniger is set to become a free agent next offseason, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times takes a lengthy look at his status within the organization, noting that it’s quite possible this is Haniger’s final year with the club. The Mariners, to this point, haven’t had much interest in an extension due both to Haniger’s recent injury woes and the fact that he’ll be 32 in the first season of a new deal. It’s always possible that stance could change and talks could pick up when the lockout lifts, but barring that, Haniger would play out the current season and reach the market next winter, at which point all 30 teams would have the ability to sign him.

Further complicating the Haniger situation, of course, is the enviable depth the Mariners have in the outfield. While Haniger is entrenched in right field for the 2022 season, the Mariners hope that can be the long-term home for top prospect Julio Rodriguez, whom most outlets peg among the game’s top five to ten overall prospects. Seattle also has Jarred Kelenic, who struggled early in his debut campaign before a much stronger finish, 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis and former top-100 prospect Taylor Trammell as potential long-term options — to say nothing of current part-time options like Jake Fraley and Dylan Moore.

Rodriguez, in particular, is on the cusp of the Majors after hitting a combined .347/.441/.560 between Class-A Advanced and Double-A this past season. The Athletic’s Corey Brock takes a look the immediate outlook for Rodriguez and three other Mariners prospects, noting that there’s at least a small chance that Rodriguez could play his way onto the Opening Day roster. As Brock notes, president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto has stated that there’s “no unrealistic expectation” for someone as talented as the 21-year-old Rodriguez.

Of course, Rodriguez has yet to play in Triple-A, and Mariners fans in particular will recall that the organization kept Kelenic in the minors to open the 2021 campaign under similar circumstances. That was a controversial decision, due largely to comments made by former Mariners CEO Kevin Mather, though Kelenic’s early struggles and his subsequent option back to Triple-A Tacoma at least made the Mariners’ decision look justifiable.

Heading into the 2022 season, Seattle could reasonably look to Haniger, Kelenic, Lewis, Fraley and newcomer Adam Frazier in the outfield (the latter depending heavily on what type of infielder or infielders Seattle adds in trade or free agency). There’s no urgent need for Rodriguez to break camp, but a big enough showing in whatever limited exhibition games we get could make his future a bigger talking point.

Also knocking on the door to the big leagues is 24-year-old right-hander George Kirby — a consensus top-100 prospect himself who’s expected to make his big league debut this coming season. He’s yet to pitch in Triple-A and only logged 26 frames in Double-A last season, so that’ll quite likely come later in the season — and Brock suggests it’d likely happen only if a legitimate rotation spot is opened due to injury or other circumstances. Kirby pitched in just 67 2/3 innings last season, and electric as they were, he could still use some further development.

In some respects, Rodriguez and Kirby are similar to last year’s ballyhooed duo of Kelenic and righty Logan Gilbert. Both debuted with huge fanfare, and while there were plenty of highlights (particularly down the stretch), there were plenty of ups and downs as well. Still, Seattle reliever Paul Sewald mentioned both Kelenic and Gilbert in an interview with Stacy Rost and Jake Heaps on 710 ESPN (YouTube link), pointing to both as potential examples of service-time manipulation when explaining the MLBPA’s stance in the ongoing labor talks.

Sewald, a close friend of Kris Bryant, pointed back to the longtime Cubs slugger’s delayed debut as the most egregious incident of service-time manipulation but also used the 2021 Mariners to rhetorically raise another aspect of the service-time debate.

“If we had Logan Gilbert and Jarred Kelenic from Opening Day, are we two games better and maybe we make the playoffs?” Sewald said. “I don’t know. I don’t know that for a fact. I’m just saying, if we weren’t looking at service-time manipulation, could they make an impact where you [instead of] finishing one game back, two games back, you maybe make the playoffs? It’s disappointing.”

Sewald certainly isn’t claiming Seattle would’ve been postseason-bound had both players debuted earlier — Kelenic certainly didn’t hit the ground running, after all — but it’s another aspect of the puzzle to consider. A more prominent example of that could be the 2010 Braves, who did make the decision to carry Jason Heyward on the Opening Day roster and ultimately edged out the Padres by one game for a Wild Card berth. Had they withheld Heyward, who hit .277/.393/.456 and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting, they could well have missed the postseason. There are obvious business reasons for teams to keep players down, and those who choose to do so aren’t necessarily doing anything wrong and are simply using the current system to their long-term advantage. Still, Sewald’s general point, outside of any specific examples, is one piece of the issue that isn’t always discussed.

Of greater note to Mariners fans, perhaps, is Sewald’s mention that he and Bryant are close friends. The Las Vegas natives are college teammates who’ve known each other since high school, and Sewald acknowledged that he’s lobbied for a reunion.

“I convinced him to go to University of San Diego with me and play with me there,” Sewald said with a laugh. “I am doing the best that I possibly can to convince him to be a Seattle Mariner for the next few years.”

Dollars and years figure to win the day whenever Bryant puts pen to paper, and Sewald’s comments are little more than anecdotal. That said, Mariners fans surely don’t mind having a close friend of Bryant on the roster who’s attempting to sell him on the team, city and fan base — all else being equal.

Latest On Mariners’ Infield Pursuits

By Steve Adams | February 4, 2022 at 10:42pm CDT

It’s already been a fairly active offseason for the Mariners, who before the league-implemented lockout by signing reigning Cy Young winner Robbie Ray to a five-year contract and acquiring second baseman/left fielder Adam Frazier in a trade with the Padres. Whenever the transaction freeze lifts, the M’s are expected to resume that aggressive approach as they look to capitalize on a top-ranked farm system and take the next step from last year’s 90-win showing to their first playoff berth in two decades.

The checklist, in some ways, looks similar to early in the offseason. Even with Ray on board, Seattle is likely to add some veteran innings to the back of the rotation. The big right-handed bat sought by president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has not yet been acquired. As such, it’s hardly a surprise that the M’s have been linked extensively to all three of Kris Bryant, Trevor Story and Seiya Suzuki in recent weeks.

Perhaps more interesting is the idea that the Mariners could potentially add two of those names to the fold. Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times suggests that it’s at least possible for Seattle to add both Bryant and Story, adding not to “underestimate the possibility” that Frazier could be traded before ever playing a game for the Mariners.

That’s a new and yet-unexplored topic by and large, so it’s worth taking a bit of time to unpack — after establishing a few points up front. For starters, it’s certainly possible that even if Seattle were to pull off an unlikely stunner and sign both Bryant and Story, Frazier could still be deployed as a multi-position super utility player. That’d cut into the available playing time for switch-hitting Abraham Toro, but Toro could conceivably rotate between multiple infield positions (third base, second base and perhaps even first base) and designated hitter himself. He also has minor league options remaining.

Secondly, it should be emphasized that there’s no indication in the report that a blockbuster addition of both Bryant and Story is at all likely, nor does Divish suggest that Frazier will be actively shopped by the Mariners. Some would question the logic of acquiring Frazier in the first place if the end result were only for him to be traded just a couple months later. However, in the (very) hypothetical event that scenario plays out, it surely wouldn’t have been the plan at the time of the deal. Any further activity involving Frazier would quite likely stem from the Mariners unexpectedly landing some big-ticket items they originally didn’t anticipate being possible. And, as Divish notes, a Frazier deal would likely only come together if he were to bring back some form of immediate big league help (perhaps pairing him with some minor league talent).

While Frazier’s time with the Padres didn’t go as either player or team hoped, the 2021 season was nevertheless a strong one for the 30-year-old veteran. In 639 trips to the plate, Frazier slashed .305/.368/.411 — good for a 114 wRC+ — adding in five home runs, five triples and career-highs in doubles (36) and steals (10). His 10.8% strikeout rate was also the lowest of his career by a good margin.

That said, Frazier is a free agent after the 2022 season and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a $7.2MM salary this year. It’s certainly plausible that the Mariners, with a deep outfield mix and the more cost-effective Toro as an option at both second and third base, might not relish the idea of relegating Frazier to a rather pricey bench piece — if they were able to add a pair of bats. Furthermore, a team with a need at second base (e.g. White Sox) or in the outfield (e.g. Guardians) could potentially show interest were Frazier’s trade market to be rekindled. Dipoto has already made clear he has no intention of trading his top prospects this offseason, but some mid-range talents plus a win-now piece like Frazier could theoretically net some needed pitching help from a trade partner.

Again, it’s safest to assume this is all a long shot and that Frazier will end up playing a notable role with the Mariners this coming season. But with no end in sight to the lockout, it’s also hard not to think about some outside-the-box possibilities and what might lie ahead when baseball returns to brighter days. A second Frazier swap or the Mariners shocking the baseball world with a pair of big-name additions might feel like a reach, but with just $87MM in projected 2022 payroll and only $37MM in 2023, the money is there for Dipoto & Co. to at least consider some ambitious possibilities.

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