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Mike Clevinger

Padres To Start Mike Clevinger On Tuesday

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Mike Clevinger is set to pitch for the first time since the 2020 season, as Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell) that Clevinger is scheduled to start on Tuesday.  Ironically, San Diego is playing the Guardians, Clevinger’s team for the first four-plus years of his Major League career.

Cleveland dealt Clevinger to the Padres in August 2020 as part of a huge nine-player trade, and Clevinger proceeded to post a 2.84 ERA in four starts down the stretch for San Diego.  However, an elbow impingement limited Clevinger to just a single postseason inning, and that elbow problem soon proved to be dire, as Clevinger had to undergo Tommy John surgery in November 2020.  After missing all of last season recovering, Clevinger then had some knee soreness during Spring Training that further delayed his return to the mound.

One of the many success stories out of the Guardians’ pitching development system in recent years, Clevinger had a 2.96 ERA, 28% strikeout rate, and nine percent walk rate over 489 1/3 innings with Cleveland from 2017-20.  His emergence as a front-of-the-rotation arm made him a major get for the Padres, even if the TJ surgery wiped out one of the two full seasons of team control that remained at the time of the trade.

It appears as though Clevinger’s return won’t result in an odd man out for San Diego’s rotation, as Melvin said that MacKenzie Gore and Nick Martinez was still lined up for Wednesday and Thursday.  That would imply the Padres are going to deploy a six-man rotation for the time being, though that plan could soon be shaken up since Blake Snell is also nearing readiness after a groin strain sent him to the IL on April 10.

Since Yu Darvish, Sean Manaea, and Joe Musgrove aren’t going anywhere in the rotation, the Padres could continue to use a six-man rotation once Snell is back, and then either end Gore to the minors or move Martinez into a relief role.  While all of the injury concerns created plenty of uncertainty, this glut of pitching gave San Diego some flexibility with their pitching depth, as evidenced by their trade of Chris Paddack to the Twins and their willingness to discuss Dinelson Lamet in trade talks with other clubs.

Padres Promote MacKenzie Gore, Place Blake Snell On 10-Day IL

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5:45PM: The Padres have officially announced the moves, putting Snell on the 10-day IL (retroactive to April 11) with a left adductor strain.

3:49PM: Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including AJ Cassavell and Kevin Acee) that Snell has been placed on the 10-day IL, and Gore will indeed start Friday’s game.

12:33PM: The Padres are facing some early-season uncertainty in the starting rotation. Left-hander Blake Snell was scratched from what was supposed to be his first start on Sunday after experiencing adductor tightness. Snell hasn’t been placed on the injured list, but it’s expected he’ll need some time on the shelf to recover.

With Snell’s spot in the rotation up again tomorrow night against the Braves, it looks as if MacKenzie Gore will get his first big league look. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com tweeted Tuesday that Gore had joined the team’s taxi squad, and Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote last night the organization expects to soon place Snell on the IL and start Gore in his place.

Gore’s prospect stock has fluctuated considerably in recent seasons. The third overall pick in 2017, he carved up low minors hitters over his first two professional campaigns. In the process, Gore emerged as a potentially elite young talent. Heading into the 2020 season, each of Baseball America, FanGraphs and The Athletic slotted Gore as the sport’s top pitching prospect. All three outlets ranked him among the top six minor league talents overall.

Having reached Double-A late in 2019, Gore looked as if he could make his MLB debut at some point that season. The pandemic wound up necessitating a shorter schedule and a lack of minor league play, however, and Gore spent the year at the alternate training site. Reports emerged that he’d gotten out of whack mechanically, with Baseball America writing over the 2020-21 offseason there were concerns about both his control and a velocity dip.

Those red flags persisted last year, as Gore walked an alarming 12.5% of opponents against a dramatically reduced 18.8% strikeout rate in six Triple-A starts. The Padres reassigned him to their Arizona complex for some lower-pressure work to get back on track, and he returned to an affiliate late in the season with a pair of Double-A starts. He walked another eight batters in nine innings but also punched out 16.

There’s no question Gore’s inconsistent past couple seasons have dealt some kind of hit to his prospect stock. He’s no longer a consensus top ten minor leaguer, nor has he reached the majors as quickly as it had once seemed he would. Yet Gore only turned 23 years old in February and is only two years removed from being perhaps the best pitcher in the minors. He’s certainly still a legitimate prospect, one whom Keith Law of the Athletic slotted #59 overall this offseason.

Law wrote that each of Gore’s fastball, changeup and slider are still plus pitches and that he’s athletic enough to yet emerge as a top-of-the-rotation arm if he finds more mechanical consistency. BA slotted the southpaw fourth in the San Diego system this winter, praising his high-octane repertoire and noting that his “misses off the plate were much smaller” late last year than they’d been early in that season. Gore has only made one appearance so far this year, but he didn’t issue a single free pass in five scoreless innings with Triple-A El Paso last week, fanning seven of the 16 batters he faced.

Gore is already on the 40-man roster, so a Snell IL placement would be sufficient to accommodate his call-up. How long he’d remain in the rotation is to be seen, but Acee writes that both Snell and right-hander Mike Clevinger are expected to require two minor league rehab starts before returning to the majors. The team announced last night that Clevinger, who missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery and opened this year on the IL due to some soreness in his right knee, will make his first rehab start today with High-A Lake Elsinore.

Padres Notes: Clevinger, Abrams, Paddack, Weathers

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Mike Clevinger is battling soreness in his right knee and is expected to begin the season on the 10-day injured list, Padres manager Bob Melvin told reporters (including Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune).  Clevinger has made only one appearance this spring, and lasted only 1 2/3 innings.

The IL placement “allows us to kind of smooth things out and slow it down some,” Melvin said.  “We don’t feel like it’s a significant thing, but it actually might be a little bit of a blessing because it did feel like we were kind of rushing him a little bit.”

It has already been a lengthy absence from a big league mound for Clevinger, who underwent Tommy John surgery in November 2020 and subsequently missed all of last season.  The Padres were already planning to ease him back into action on limited innings, pairing Clevinger with another pitcher in piggyback fashion.  It seems likely that the team might still pursue this strategy when Clevinger does return, though the extra recovery time could allow Clevinger to start a bit deeper into games.

San Diego has enough of a pitching surplus to withstand Clevinger’s absence, particularly after Sean Manaea was acquired from the A’s earlier today.  However, rumors continue to swirl about the possibility that the Friars could trade from their pitching depth to facilitate another deal, and the Padres reportedly came close on a four-player swap with the Mets yesterday that would’ve seen Eric Hosmer, Chris Paddack, and Emilio Pagan all sent to New York for Dominic Smith.

That trade would’ve been largely about getting luxury tax relief from Hosmer’s contract, though the Padres have also pursued other big-ticket moves to add talent.  San Diego has long been rumored to have interest in the Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that the Padres offered two arms in Paddack and Ryan Weathers in exchange for the All-Star outfielder.  That wasn’t enough for the Pirates, as talks were scuttled when Pittsburgh additionally wanted top prospect C.J. Abrams added to the trade package.

While Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has been willing to deal notable prospects in the past, he has mostly resisted trading any of the true upper-tier names from his farm system.  As a consensus top-15 prospect in baseball, Abrams fits that billing, even coming off an injury-shortened 2021 season.  The Pirates are known to be seeking a major return in exchange for Reynolds, so while Abrams is a justifiable ask for a player of Reynolds’ proven ability, it remains to be seen if the Padres (or any team) would be willing to trade away a blue-chip minor league talent.

In fact, the door remains open on Abrams contributing to the Padres’ own big league roster as early as Opening Day.  Abrams has been hitting well this spring, and with Fernando Tatis Jr. set to miss as much as the first three months of the season, there is a vacancy at Abrams’ natural shortstop position.  Abrams has also been playing at second base, and Melvin has suggested that he could get some reps in the outfield as well, acting as some center field depth behind Trent Grisham.

It would be an aggressive promotion considering that Abrams has only played 42 games of Double-A ball, and has never played at Triple-A.  That said, the Padres didn’t shy away from putting Tatis on their Opening Day roster in 2019, and that was even before the new Collective Bargaining Agreement introduced the “Prospect Promotion Incentive,” which allows teams to potentially gain an extra draft pick if a top prospect spends an entire season on the active roster and has a high finish in awards balloting.

Returning to the pitching rumor mill, Paddack drew some attention from New York’s other team last month, when the Yankees and Padres were discussing Luke Voit in trade talks.  SNY’s Andy Martino reports that the Yankees initially wanted Paddack in return for Voit, before finally settling on a less-experienced hurler in prospect Justin Lange.

8 Post-Tommy John Pitchers Who’ll Impact Next Year’s Market

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We’ve grown accustomed to seeing headline after headline indicating that a pitcher is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery in today’s game. The procedure has become so commonplace, in fact, that it’s no longer surprising to see teams guarantee multi-year deals to rehabbing pitchers who’ll be sidelined for a full season of that contract as they work back from the injury. Such deals have produced varying levels of success in the past. Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year deal with the Rays worked out great; Drew Smyly didn’t pitch for the Cubs and posted a 6.24 after being traded to the Rangers.

Heading into the 2022 season, there are a handful of notable pitchers who were either signed under just that circumstance or are now playing for a contract on the heels of a Tommy John surgery that, hopefully, is more or less in the rearview mirror. A strong rebound will position any of this bunch either as a prominent member of next winter’s free-agent crop or, in some cases, to have a lucrative 2023 club option picked up. Here’s a look at a handful of Tommy John recoveries that could have a notable impact on next year’s market.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger: A marquee addition by the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline, Clevinger made only four regular-season starts and a one-inning postseason cameo before requiring Tommy John surgery in the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego, knowing he’d miss the entire 2021 season, signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM deal that paid him $2MM during his rehab season but will more heavily compensate him in 2022, now that he’s expected to be back to full strength. It was the second Tommy John procedure of Clevinger’s career, as he also had the surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

There’s little questioning Clevinger’s talent, as the now-31-year-old righty was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball from 2017 until the time of his injury in 2020. In 489 1/3 innings over that stretch, Clevinger posted a 2.96 ERA while punching out 28% of his opponents against a 9% walk rate. Among big league pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown during that time, Clevinger ranked seventh in ERA and 14th in FIP (3.39). That said, he’s also only reached 130 innings in a big league season on one occasion, when he threw an even 200 frames in 2019.

That relatively limited workload, coupled with this being Clevinger’s second Tommy John procedure, will surely impact his free agency next winter to an extent. That said, a strong and healthy season out of the righty will still position him as one of the top arms on next winter’s market. Clevinger, teammate Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Noah Syndergaard are among the more prominent free agents still in their early 30s next winter (to say nothing of older veterans with contract options or opt-outs, such as Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton).

James Paxton: Paxton isn’t necessarily playing for a free-agent contract. He signed a complicated multi-year deal with the Red Sox that’ll pay him $6MM in 2022 before he can either trigger a $4MM player option or the team can exercise a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons. For luxury-tax purposes, that should be considered a two-year, $10MM deal, as the player option for 2023 is considered to be guaranteed money. Of course, there’s also the possibility that with a healthy season, the contract will effectively balloon to a contract that pays Paxton $32MM over a three-year term. The deal contains further incentives, as Paxton could boost those 2023-24 salaries by $250K apiece for reaching 12, 14, 16 and 18 starts.

It’s a heavily incentive-laden deal that speaks both to the considerable risk in signing Paxton and the considerable upside he’ll bring to Boston. A healthy Paxton is a high-quality big league starter, evidenced the career 3.50 ERA he carried into an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Yankees. Among the 149 big league starters to toss at least 200 innings from 2017-19, Paxton’s 30.1% strikeout rate ranked seventh, and his 7.3% walk rate was markedly better than league average. His 22.7 K-BB% was among the best in the game, as were his strong ratings in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.26) and SIERA (3.45).

Since that 2019 season, however, Paxton has undergone back surgery, missed significant time with a forearm strain and eventually undergone Tommy John surgery. Earlier in his career, he’d dealt with lat, forearm and pectoral injuries, among a litany of smaller-scale issues.

There’s probably a scenario where Paxton pitches well enough to turn down his $4MM player option even if the Red Sox decline the effective two-year, $26MM option they hold over him. (We saw a comparable situation play out with Yusei Kikuchi earlier in the winter.) That said, the ideal scenario for Paxton and the Sox is that he pitches well enough to reestablish himself as a quality MLB hurler and boost those two club options to $14MM apiece in total value in the process.

Paxton underwent his Tommy John procedure in late April, so he’s not likely to be ready to help the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. By late May or June, however, he could represent a boost to a rotation that is not exactly shy of other injury concerns.

Justin Verlander: Even though he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander still got a hefty $25MM guarantee from the Astros — plus a conditional $25MM player option that kicks in if he reaches 130 innings pitched. The two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP has a track record that speaks for itself; when we last saw Verlander in a full, healthy season, he was edging then-teammate Gerrit Cole for the 2019 AL Cy Young Award.

Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his 40s, and he has a good chance at doing so if he can bounce back this coming season. He’ll turn 39 later this week, and if he goes out and looks anything like he did from 2015-20 — 1010 innings, 2.94 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate — Verlander will likely turn down that $25MM option, or at least leverage it into a new multi-year arrangement with the ’Stros. He was just promised a $25MM guarantee despite having thrown only six innings since Opening Day 2020, so there’s little reason to accept that he’d take a year and $25MM on the heels of a healthy return effort at Minute Maid Park.

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps it’s not quite fair to label Syndergaard as a Tommy John rehabber; after all, he did make it back to the mound with the Mets late in the 2021 season — albeit for only two innings. That said, this is Thor’s first full season back from that ligament replacement procedure, and he’ll be pitching for a big contract next winter from the moment he suits up in Orange County. Signed by the Angels to a one-year, $21MM contract, Syndergaard will be pitching with a team other than the Mets for the first time in his big league career.

It’s a hefty price to pay, particularly considering the fact that Syndergaard had rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but his career to date is all the evidence needed to suggest that at his best, Syndergaard is plenty worth that gamble. He’s never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season and has never failed to strike out a batter per inning. Few pitchers can match Syndergaard’s blend of pure velocity, missed bats and impeccable command, and he manages all that while still turning in a ground-ball rate that’s well higher than the league average.

Syndergaard has always felt like he’s one step away from solidifying himself as a bona fide ace, and as Robbie Ray showed in winning the AL Cy Young Award this season, one dominant season for a player with this type of track record can result in a nine-figure payday if things break right. The market has already proven to value Syndergaard at more than $20MM per year, and given that he’d be 30 years old in 2023, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that he’s pitching for a $100MM contract this season.

Luis Severino: As with Syndergaard, Severino may not quite fit the criteria for this list. The 27-year-old (28 later this week, on the same day Verlander turns 39) returned to give the Yankees six innings out of the bullpen late in the 2021 season, and his protracted absence from the team’s pitching staff cannot be solely attributed to Tommy John surgery. Severino has also battled groin, shoulder and lat injuries along the way. That said, Severino really hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2020, and it’s that operation that is the primary reason for his absence over the past two seasons.

Severino isn’t yet slated to hit the open market at season’s end — at least not before the Yankees make a call on a $15MM club option or a $2.75MM buyout. The resulting $12.25MM net decision would be a straightforward one for general manager Brian Cashman if Severino at all looks like his former self. From 2017-18, Severino gave the Yankees 384 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with outstanding strikeout and walk rates, prompting the team to sign him to a four-year contract extension that promised him $40MM.

That deal looked like a bargain for the team at the time but has since gone south, due largely to repeated injury woes. Severino made a combined 63 regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2017-18, looking every bit like a foundational piece to the pitching staff, but he’s combined for just 25 starts and another 18 relief appearances in the five seasons surrounding that brilliant run.

With a big season in 2022, Severino could still see that $15MM option picked up, and if he can remain healthy into 2023, he’d hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes reality, however.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle: Signed by the Dodgers to a two-year, $4.75MM contract last offseason, Kahnle was never expected to contribute in 2021 — hence the backloaded nature of his contract, which will pay him $3.45MM in 2022. The hard-throwing righty only managed one inning for the 2020 Yankees, meaning this coming season will be the first since 2019 in which he’ll potentially pitch anything resembling a full workload.

The 32-year-old Kahnle has been inconsistent but has dominated more often than he’s struggled. From 2016-20, he logged a combined 3.48 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate while averaging 97.1 mph on his heater. That includes a disastrous but also fluky-looking 2018 campaign in which he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 frames. From 2016-20, Kahnle’s 32.9% strikeout rate ranks 17th among the 155 relievers to have thrown at least 150 innings, while his 15.9% swinging-strike rate is tied for sixth.

Kahnle’s Tommy John surgery came way back on Aug. 5, 2020, so there should be no restrictions on him by the time the season gets underway. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season next winter, and a return to his vintage form should position him as one of the top relievers on a free-agent market that is lacking in big-name right-handed relievers.

Ken Giles: Like Kahnle, Giles was signed by the Mariners — two years, $7MM — knowing full well that he would not pitch in 2021. Unlike Kahnle, his contract includes a club option for the 2023 season, which is valued at $9.5MM (with a $500K buyout).

Many of the same superlatives that apply to Kahnle apply even more so to Giles. His 18% swinging-strike rate, for instance, tops Kahnle and sits third among the 155 relievers who totaled at least 150 frames from 2016-20. His 3.33 ERA in that time is a bit more toward the middle of the pack, but Giles misses bats, induces chases outside the zone and throws as hard as nearly any reliever in the sport. He’s had a pair of 4.00-something ERAs sprinkled in amid a series of pristine marks throughout his big league career. Those two blemishes have coincided with spikes in his average on balls in play and dips in his strand rate.

On the whole, Giles is a power arm who can pile up strikeouts in droves. He’s a sometimes forgotten piece of the puzzle when looking at the 2022 Mariners and their hopes of contending, but he’ll join a deep bullpen mix that also features Diego Castillo, 2021 breakout closer Paul Sewald, former Marlins stopped Drew Steckenrider (who enjoyed a tremendous rebound in 2021) and the underappreciated Casey Sadler, who notched a 0.67 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year.

A healthy Giles would very likely see that $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season picked up, and at his best, he’s a bargain at that price. If Giles is pitching well but things go south for the Mariners, teams will come calling at the trade deadline. Of course, the Mariners are hoping to be squarely in the postseason mix, and they’re likely not done with their offseason shopping just yet.

Jose Leclerc: Armed with a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Leclerc’s ability to return to form (or his lack thereof) will have major implications for the Rangers moving forward. His four-year, $14.75MM contract extension includes a $6MM club option for the 2023 season and a $6.25MM option for the 2024 season. A rebound effort makes that 2023 option a no-brainer for the Rangers to pick up as they hope to ride a hyper-aggressive offseason into their next competitive window.

Leclerc, 28, has fanned just shy of a third of the hitters he’s faced so far in his big league career and has only allowed a dozen homers in 189 Major League innings (0.57 HR/9). His 14.9% walk rate is far too high, but he looked to be making considerable strides in that department in 2019 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA, a 38.1% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. He’ll be a highly intriguing lottery ticket on next year’s market if he pitches poorly enough that the Rangers buy that option out (or if they do so on the heels of another injury). If he rebounds, he’ll be a bargain piece of an on-the-rise Rangers club in 2023-24.

Padres Notes: Clevinger, Lamet, Pham

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The Padres are planning to have a healthy Mike Clevinger ready for Spring Training, per MLB.com’s Shaun O’Neill. The 30-year-old made just four starts in the regular season after being acquired from the Guardians midway through the 2020 season. Clevinger underwent his second Tommy John surgery, missing the entirety of the 2021 season. Clevinger’s absence was one reason President of Baseball Ops A.J. Preller went out and acquired Joe Musgrove, Blake Snell, and Yu Darvish last winter, though even those additions ended up being insufficient as injuries took their toll on the Friars.

Dinelson Lamet’s inability to stay on the hill certainly played a part, as the right-hander could not stay healthy enough to hold a rotation spot. He came off the injured list on April 21st, but made just one appearance before landing back on the shelf. He later missed another 66 days with forearm inflammation. He ended up moving to the bullpen, making 11 appearances in relief and finished with a 4.40 ERA/3.94 FIP across 47 innings. Lamet’s role in 2022 will be undecided until the spring, notes O’Neill.

They’re open to re-signing Tommy Pham, per Preller, but it’s going to be a numbers game now. The 33-year-old put up 1.4 rWAR in 561 plate appearances, leaving room for an upgrade, should the Padres find the right player. Pham’s contributions were suitable, though a .229/.340/.383 at the plate leaves much to be desired.

The Padres have some flexibility in the outfielder corners, where Will Myers, Jurickson Profar, and Adam Frazier could all see time next season. Ideally, however, only one of those three lines up at an opening day starter. There are plenty of corner outfielders available in free agency, however, so the Padres don’t have to rush a decision on Pham. Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte, Seiya Suzuki, and Avisail Garcia are just some of the corner outfielders available, as well as more versatile options like Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor.

Padres Sign Mark Melancon

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Feb. 18: The Padres have announced the signing. Mike Clevinger was placed on the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Clevinger, of course, is expected to miss the 2021 season following Tommy John surgery.

Feb. 17: Melancon will be guaranteed $3MM on the deal, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. He’ll earn a $2MM salary in 2021, and there’s a $1MM buyout on a a mutual option for the 2022 season, Heyman adds. The contract allows Melancon to earn another $2MM via incentives.

Feb. 12: The Padres have agreed to a deal with free-agent reliever Mark Melancon, reports Dennis Lin of The Athletic (Twitter link). The deal with Melancon, an ISE Baseball client, will become official once he’s passed a physical.

Mark Melancon | Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

Melancon, 36 next month, adds a former All-Star closer to an already deep Friars bullpen. He’ll give skipper Jayce Tingler another option for ninth-inning work, joining Drew Pomeranz and Emilio Pagan as closer candidates in San Diego. Based on his recent work, Melancon could well jump to the front of the line as the favorite for saves.

Melancon just finished up the final season of a four-year, $62MM contract that briefly stood as the all-time record for a reliever. (Both Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen topped that mark within weeks of Melancon signing.) The deal didn’t exactly pay dividends for the Giants, as Melancon battled injuries in both 2017 and 2018, but he bounced back with a strong showing in 2019 and was quite strong over the past season-plus following a trade to the Braves.

Melancon pitched 43 2/3 innings with Atlanta, racking up 22 saves while posting strong strikeout and walk percentages (26.3 percent and 6.2 percent, respectively). He’s also one of the game’s leading ground-ball pitchers, evidenced by a whopping 61.4 percent mark over the past two years.

Despite the success in Atlanta, there are some red flags surrounding Melancon. In addition to the fact that he’ll pitch all of 2021 at age 36, last year’s 91.7 mph average fastball represented the second-lowest mark of his career while his 8.7 percent swinging-strike rate was a career-low. He still excelled at inducing weak contact and ought to benefit from a generally strong defensive infield defense, though.

The Friars already had not only a crowded but also relatively immobile bullpen (from a roster flexibility standpoint). None of Pomeranz, Austin Adams, Pierce Johnson, Dan Altavilla, Craig Stammen or Javy Guerra can be optioned to the minors. Pagan has options but surely isn’t in danger of being sent down, and Tim Hill (who also has options) is one of the team’s three lefties. It could be tough for the Padres to continue carrying the out-of-options Guerra, a converted shortstop who has yet to find much success in Triple-A or the Majors, but they may not want to give up on him considering his heater averages better than 98 mph.

Those, of course, are the types of decisions that playoff-caliber clubs are forced to make when adding improvements, and the Padres have solidified themselves as just that. After making the postseason for the first time under newly promoted president of baseball operations A.J. Preller in 2020, the Padres have added the likes of Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, Joe Musgrove and KBO superstar Ha-Seong Kim this winter while also re-signing Jurickson Profar. Melancon is the latest, and perhaps the final, piece of an active offseason that has deepened an already-talented team which looks increasingly capable of giving the World Champion Dodgers a run for their money in the NL West.

Mike Clevinger To Undergo Tommy John Surgery; 2-Year Deal Official

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The Padres announced that right-hander Mike Clevinger will undergo Tommy John surgery. He’ll miss the entire 2021 season as a result.

This is stunning news, though it won’t bring an end to Clevinger’s run with the Padres. The team announced that the two-year deal it was working on with Clevinger last week is now official, so he will remain with the organization for his final pair of seasons of club control. Clevinger will earn $11.5MM on the pact, Joel Sherman of the New York Post was among those to report. Unsurprisingly, it’s a backloaded agreement that will see Clevinger take home a $2MM salary in 2021 and $6.5MM in 2022, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network. He also received a $3MM signing bonus. Clevinger will earn $250K in incentives if he starts five games in ’22 and another $250K if he starts 10, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

Now 29 years old, Clevinger has been one of the majors’ most effective starters since he broke out in Cleveland in 2017. But the Indians decided to part with Clevinger this past August when they sent him to the Padres in a mega-deal before the trade deadline. Clevinger then helped the Padres to their first playoff berth since 2006, throwing 19 innings of six-run ball with 9.0 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9, though he battled elbow issues in his brief debut with the club. He only threw one playoff inning, which came in a start against the Dodgers in the NLDS, before departing.

Little did the Padres know that Clevinger’s most recent outing on Oct. 6 would be his last until at least the start of the 2022 season. Until now, it seemed safe to assume Clevinger would rejoin Dinelson Lamet and Zach Davies near the top of the Padres’ rotation next year. In light of this news, though, it’s unclear how the Padres will fill out their starting five beyond Lamet, Davies and Chris Paddack. There are some in-house possibilities in MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino, Adrian Morejon, Joey Lucchesi and Ryan Weathers. Otherwise, the Padres could turn to the free-agent market or look to acquire help via trade. Either way, losing Clevinger for all of next year looks like a devastating blow for the up-and-coming San Diego franchise.

Padres, Mike Clevinger Working Toward Two-Year Deal

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The Padres are working toward a two-year contract with right-hander Mike Clevinger, reports Fansided’s Robert Murray (via Twitter). A two-year pact would buy out Clevinger’s remaining two years of arbitration, creating cost certainty for the Friars and granting some extra financial security for the pitcher himself. It would not, however, provide the Padres with any additional club control over Clevinger, who is currently on track to reach free agency after the 2022 campaign.

It’s sensible for both the Padres and Clevinger, who’ll turn 30 next month, to proactively look to avoid the arbitration process entirely. Arbitration figures to be messier than ever this offseason in the wake of the league’s broad-reaching revenue losses, so it behooves San Diego to get some cost certainty — particularly if doing so allows them to backload Clevinger’s salary. For Clevinger himself, he’ll avoid a potentially contentious process and lock in not only his 2021 salary but his 2022 contract on the heels of a season that ended with elbow concerns.

Clevinger earned $4.1MM in 2020, and using MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s 37-percent projection method, he’d land at a $4.8MM salary in 2021. That’s obviously a rather modest bump, and the uncertainties surrounding this year’s arbitration process in general inherently create a fairly broad range of variance. Still, a two-year deal figures to check in south of $20MM, given that Clevinger’s second- and third-time arbitration salaries would have only been a fraction of his open-market value, as is typically the case with arb numbers.

The 2020 season saw Clevinger again pitch at a very high level, as he worked 41 2/3 frames of 3.02 ERA ball with a 40-to-14 K/BB ratio. He struggled with his control a bit early on but righted the ship with the Padres, issuing just three walks in 19 regular-season innings following the blockbuster trade that shipped him from Cleveland to San Diego. Clevinger came under fire early in the season not only breaking Covid-19 protocols but traveling with the Indians after doing so. Cleveland learned of his infraction after the fact and subsequently optioned him to their alternate training site; Clevinger was traded not long after, although the organization denied that his rule violations played a role in driving the move.

Whatever the motivation, the Padres stand to benefit in the years to come. Clevinger joins Dinelson Lamet as a front-of-the-rotation arm at Petco Park, and the Padres have a wealth of other pitching talent on hand as well. Chris Paddack struggled in 2020 but was dominant as a rookie a year prior. Zach Davies enjoyed a breakout year this season following a trade from the Brewers. Top prospect Luis Patino made his big league debut in 2020, and the even more ballyhooed MacKenzie Gore should do so in 2021. Lefty Adrian Morejon gives San Diego yet another intriguing, high-upside option.

All told, it’s a both enviable and inexpensive crop of arms that give the Padres considerable long-term depth and upside. The Padres have some high-priced players on the position side of things — Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers — and will likely explore a long-term deal for Fernando Tatis Jr. at some point. Nailing down Clevinger’s price helps the front office and ownership alike get a better sense of the budget for that and other moves over the next two years.

Padres, Indians Complete Mike Clevinger Trade

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The Indians and Padres have completed their massive Aug. 31 trade in which Cleveland sent right-hander Mike Clevinger to San Diego. Per announcements from both teams, the Padres have acquired right-hander Matt Waldron.

Waldron, who turned 24 in September, joined the Indians when they chose him in the 18th round of the 2019 draft. He made a good impression during his first minor league season, in which he amassed 45 2/3 innings of 2.96 ERA pitching with 11.2 K/9 against a measly 0.8 BB/9 between the rookie and Low-A levels. Of course, Waldron wasn’t able to build on those numbers this year because the pandemic wiped out the minor league season.

However Waldron pans out, the Padres probably don’t regret making the deal. Even though he missed time with injuries after the team picked him up, Clevinger helped the Friars to the playoffs with 19 innings of six-run ball in September. Clevinger has two more years of affordable control left, so he’ll remain a key cog for the Padres going forward.

The Indians, meanwhile, saw three of the six players they acquired for Clevinger and outfielder Greg Allen don their uniform in 2020. Righty Cal Quantrill was highly effective over a small sample of work; outfielder/first baseman Josh Naylor went on a tear during their two-game playoff loss to the Yankees after a subpar regular campaign; and catcher Austin Hedges’ struggles at the plate continued.

Latest On Dinelson Lamet, Mike Clevinger

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OCT. 14: Good news for Lamet, Clevinger and the Padres: General manager A.J. Preller said Wednesday (via AJ Cassavell of MLB.com) that it doesn’t seem “either situation is surgical,” so the two righties should be ready for the spring.

OCT. 13: Padres righty Dinelson Lamet has begun platelet-rich plasma therapy on his right elbow, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.  Lamet has been out of action since September 25 due to biceps tightness, though examinations of his arm revealed “no ligament issues” according to one of Acee’s sources, and Lamet is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training.

Lamet was unable to pitch during the Padres’ postseason run, bringing a sour end to an otherwise dream season for the 28-year-old.  Seen as a potential breakout candidate after a promising 2019, Lamet more than lived up to expectations by posting a 2.09 ERA, 4.65 K/BB rate, and 12.1 K/9 over 69 innings for San Diego.  Armed with a 97mph fastball that sat in the 91st percentile of spin rate, Lamet’s 2.4 fWAR tied him for fifth among all Major League pitchers in 2020.

After Lamet missed all of 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, there was natural concern about another arm injury, but the issue didn’t sideline Lamet entirely.  As Acee notes, Lamet kept playing catch in order to keep his arm loose, just in case he received clearance to pitch in some capacity during the playoffs.

It’s quite possible that the Padres could still be playing had Lamet and Mike Clevinger both been healthy for October.  Clevinger is also expected to be ready for the start of the 2021 season since his elbow impingement is thought to require arthroscopic surgery at the most, though Acee adds today that Clevinger will be examined by doctors this week and “no definite plan has been established.”

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