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Mike Clevinger

White Sox Showing Strong Interest In Mike Clevinger

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The White Sox are showing strong interest in free agent starter Mike Clevinger, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

Clevinger, who turns 32 in less than a month, is two years removed from Tommy John surgery.  He returned from the procedure this year to post a 4.33 ERA, 18.8 K%, 7.2 BB%, and 35.2% groundball rate in 114 1/3 regular season innings for the Padres.  He also started a pair of playoff games, allowing seven earned runs in 2 2/3 innings.

The White Sox currently have a solid starting four lined up for their 2023 rotation in Dylan Cease, Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito, and Michael Kopech, though Kopech is recovering from a pair of injuries.  Clevinger could potentially fill the shoes of Johnny Cueto, himself a free agent.  Cueto proved invaluable after signing a minor league deal with the Sox, posting a 3.35 ERA in 158 1/3 frames.

Though Clevinger’s post-Tommy John work was uninspiring, some teams may hope further distance from the surgery and/or tweaks to his repertoire can recover some of his previous form.  From 2017-20, mostly pitching for Cleveland, Clevinger put up a 2.96 ERA over 489 1/3 innings, including an excellent 19 K-BB%.  He was quite possibly one of the 20 best pitchers in baseball during that time.

The Padres acquired Clevinger from the Indians in a nine-player trade at the 2020 trade deadline.  It’s worth noting that the White Sox were also in the mix for the pitcher they knew so well from the AL Central, though Rosenthal heard from one team official who felt they were used as a “stalking horse.”  Clevinger made four starts as a new Padre, but was then scratched for what was at the time called biceps tightness and later revised to an elbow sprain.  The Padres brought him back for Game 1 of the NLDS that year, but he was pulled from the start and was on the operating table the following month.

At the time of the surgery announcement, the Padres also bought out Clevinger’s final two arbitration years for a total of $11.5MM, effectively paying him that amount for what he could contribute in ’22.  Though Clevinger remarked in March, “I feel healthier than I have in my entire career,” he sprained his knee shortly thereafter, leading to a May 4th season debut.  He hit the IL again after three starts due to a triceps strain.

Over his first ten games, Clevinger was able to miss bats at an above average 24.7% clip.  Over his last 11 starts, however, Clevinger punched out only 13.5%.  Clevinger lost a bit off his fastball as the season wore on, occasionally working at 95+ in some of his earlier starts versus a few sub-93 games in the dog days of summer.  Denied communication with the Padres during the lockout as well as a typical spring training, perhaps changing those variables will lead to better results for Clevinger in 2023.

With a cast of unproven hurlers vying for the fifth starting spot and Kopech recovering from knee surgery, White Sox pitching coach Ethan Katz recently commented, “Obviously, we need another starter,” as reported by James Fegan of The Athletic.  But as Fegan noted from the GM Meetings earlier this month, “If there’s one thing the White Sox are not touting about themselves this offseason, it’s their payroll flexibility.”  For an overall view of the challenges faced by GM Rick Hahn, check out my Offseason Outlook here.

MLBTR ranked Clevinger 49th on our top 50 free agents list, predicting a one-year, $10MM deal.  While we do find a two-year pact plausible for Clevinger, it’s possible he’d prefer to sign a one-year contract to rebuild value in ’23 – though he would be subject to a qualifying offer if he succeeds.  A handful of starting pitchers have come off the board at this early point in the offseason, Martin Perez, Tyler Anderson, and Nick Martinez chief among them.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Padres Activate Mike Clevinger For NL Division Series

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The Padres went to Queens and took two out of three to knock off the Mets last week. They’ll now start a five-game set looking to take down the Dodgers, a team that was 22 games clear of them for the lead in the NL West. San Diego makes one change to their roster from the Mets series.

Here’s how it all breaks down:

Right-Handed Pitchers

Left-Handed Pitchers

Catchers

Infielders

Outfielders

The only adjustment for the Friars is the installation of Mike Clevinger onto the Division Series roster. The right-hander was sidelined by a non-COVID illness late in the regular season. While he reported to the team in Flushing, the Friars didn’t carry him on the roster for the series. Clevinger, who had a 4.33 ERA with a career-low 18.8% strikeout rate over 114 1/3 innings this year, may not have gotten a start over Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove during the three-game set regardless. With the potential for a five-game series this time around, San Diego adds an extra arm to the staff. Clevinger will step right into the mix with a Game One start after the Friars deployed their top three arms late last week.

As a result, the Padres swap out infielder Brandon Dixon. Carried as a right-handed bench bat during the first set, Dixon didn’t make an appearance. He won’t be an option for manager Bob Melvin this series unless he’s added as an injury replacement.

Padres Place Mike Clevinger On IL Due To Illness

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The Padres announced that they have placed right-hander Mike Clevinger on the injured list due to illness. Fellow righty Nabil Crismatt was recalled in a corresponding move.

Clevinger, 31, was set to start the final game of the season but was scratched due to this illness. Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the team is still awaiting the results of a COVID test and also relays that Clevinger has been dealing with some knee soreness lately. He missed time earlier this year due to a knee sprain.

The timing of the ailment is significant, as the Padres have clinched a playoff spot and will begin a best-of-three Wild Card series against the Mets on Friday. Clevinger likely wouldn’t have earned a start in that series, with Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove the probables for those three contests. However, if the Friars can survive into the NLDS and beyond, they will likely need a fourth starter at some point. If Clevinger is not 100%, it’s possible that Sean Manaea might get the gig instead.

Clevinger missed all of 2021 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and has returned to throw 114 1/3 innings here in 2022. He has a 4.33 ERA, 18.8% strikeout rate, 7.2% walk rate and 35.2% ground ball rate. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

Forecasting The 2022-23 Qualifying Offers: Pitchers

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Yesterday, we took a look at the pending free agent position players who could be candidates to receive a qualifying offer this winter.  Now, let’s turn our attention to what free agent pitchers might be in line for a QO, with the caveat that players can only receive one qualifying offer in their careers, and a player must spend the entire 2022 season with his team to be eligible.

Easy Calls: Chris Bassitt (Mets), Jacob deGrom (Mets), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox), Carlos Rodon (Giants)

DeGrom has already said that he is opting out of the final guaranteed season of his contract, leaving $30.5MM on the table in 2023 to seek out a longer-term pact.  Rodon is also sure to opt out of the final year (and $22.5MM) of his two-year contact with San Francisco, as Rodon earned his opt-out by triggering a vesting option at the 110-innings threshold.

Even with Eovaldi’s injury history, retaining him for one year at roughly $19MM seems like a pretty good outcome for the Red Sox, particularly given all the other question marks in Boston’s rotation.  So there’s little risk for the Sox in issuing Eovaldi a QO, though it would seem like Eovaldi will probably reject it.

Face-of-the-Franchise Veterans: Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers), Adam Wainwright (Cardinals)

With Kershaw considering retirement last winter, the Dodgers opted against issuing him a qualifying offer as a free agent, as a nod towards giving the longtime ace all the time he needed to make a decision on his future.  It stands to reason that the Dodgers will take the same path this winter, unless Kershaw gives them advance notice of his plans for 2023….though in that scenario, the two sides might just work out an extension before free agency even officially opens.

The same could be true of Wainwright, who has signed one-year contracts to rejoin the Cardinals in each of the last four offseasons.  In three of those cases, Wainwright inked his new deal either just after the start of the free agent period or before it altogether, so it’s safe to assume the two sides will work out a new pact without the QO coming into play.  Of course, this assumes that Wainwright will come back for an 18th Major League season, but even as his 41st birthday approaches, the right-hander is still going strong.

Easy Contract-Option Calls: Carlos Carrasco (Mets), Sonny Gray (Twins), Aaron Nola (Phillies)

These starters could be free agents if their club options are declined, and thus are technically qualifying-offer candidates.  However, the trio are all virtual locks to have their options exercised, and their respective options are all worth less than the projected cost of the qualifying offer.

Borderline Cases: Tyler Anderson (Dodgers), Mike Clevinger (Padres), Zach Eflin (Phillies), Sean Manaea (Padres), Martin Perez (Rangers), Jameson Taillon (Yankees), Taijuan Walker (Mets)

Walker is yet another Mets entry on this list, as he is very likely to decline his $6MM player option for 2023 and instead take a $3MM buyout into free agency.  Advanced metrics paint a less-flattering picture of Walker’s performance than his bottom-line numbers, and he has battled both injury and consistency problems over his career, though Walker has been relatively healthy in his two seasons in New York.  It would seem likely that the Mets will issue Walker a QO, and 2022 has been enough of a platform year for the righty that he will probably turn the qualifying offer down.

The Padres are another team with multiple QO candidates, as while Joe Musgrove was kept off the open market with a $100MM extension, Manaea and Clevinger remain.  Due in part to two particularly disastrous outings against the Dodgers, Manaea’s ERA is an ungainly 4.76 over 119 innings.  Clevinger has a solid 3.47 ERA in his return from Tommy John surgery, but that is only over 70 innings, due to both his TJ rehab as well as a triceps strain and a week on the COVID-related IL.

Right now, Manaea and Clevinger could possibly be candidates to accept a qualifying offer, if they don’t feel they have enough of a platform to maximize their free agent market.  Solid performances over the final month and a half of the season would make it an easier decision for either pitcher to reject a QO, and easier for the Padres to decide whether or not to issue the offers.  San Diego could be facing a third consecutive year of luxury-tax overage in 2023, especially if Manaea and/or Clevinger are on the books for a $19MM-ish salary.

Eflin is another player who needs to post some solid numbers down the stretch, but first and foremost, the Philadelphia right-hander just needs to get healthy.  Eflin has been on the IL since late June due to a kneecap bruise, and his continued knee soreness is a red flag for a pitcher who has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past.  When healthy, Eflin has been a quietly solid pitcher for the Phillies over the last five seasons, yet his lingering knee problems are certainly a concern.  There is the interesting wrinkle of a $15MM mutual option between Eflin and the Phils for 2023, and while mutual options are rarely exercised by both parties, this could be a rare situation where it would make sense for both the player and the team.  Paying $15MM for Eflin would also represent some risk for the Phillies, but it would be less than the value of a qualifying offer.

After a great start to the season, Taillon’s numbers have come back to earth a bit, with a 3.95 ERA over 120 2/3 innings.  A below-average strikeout pitcher, Taillon has relied on excellent control and spin rates on his fastball and curve to limit damage, and he also doesn’t allow too much hard contact.  Perhaps most importantly given Taillon’s injury history, he has been healthy in 2022, which should make offseason suitors more open to giving him a longer-term contract.  For now, it seems probable that the Yankees would issue Taillon a QO rather than let him potentially walk away for nothing in free agency.

The idea of Anderson or Perez as QO candidates would’ve seemed quite farfetched heading into the season, yet the two veteran left-handers are each enjoying career years that resulted in All-Star appearances.  Their underwhelming career histories could prevent the Dodgers and Rangers from issuing qualifying offers, since either pitcher would likely take the big payday, and $19MM is a lot to invest in basically one season of evidence (even for a Dodgers team that is comfortable blowing past luxury tax thresholds).

However, it would certainly make sense for either club to pursue re-signings, even if a qualifying offer isn’t involved.  The Rangers have already been vocal about their desire to retain Perez, so it is quite possible he signs an extension before even hitting the open market.

The Market For Rental Starters Is On Shaky Ground

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The starting pitchers that have received, and surely will continue to receive, the most attention in trade rumors are Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas and Tyler Mahle. It’s not surprising, given that they’re all quality pitchers, have been in rumors for a long time and are currently playing for obvious sellers. They also each come with an extra year of control, making them doubly enticing. Why add an exciting new pitcher for just one postseason push when you can do it for two? MLBTR recently ranked the trade candidates and placed them #4, 5 and 6, respectively.

However, with upwards of a dozen teams looking to bolster their pitching staffs in the coming weeks, not all of them will succeed in grabbing one of that trio. In fact, with their extra control, there’s no guarantee any of them will be traded. Montas and Mahle are both dealing with minor injuries right now, and though both are expected to be well enough to pitch before the deadline, there’s always the possibility of the injury getting worse and scuttling trade hopes. Regardless, some teams are going to have to look farther down the list of trade candidates, which is where things get murky.

The top 50 list linked above featured six starters who are set to reach free agency at the end of the year: José Quintana at #7, Martín Pérez at #12, Chad Kuhl at #17, Jordan Lyles at #18, Noah Syndergaard at #21 and Mike Clevinger at #38. (Lyles isn’t a rental in the strictest sense, as he has an $11MM club option for next year with a $1MM buyout. But since the odds seem to be against that getting picked up, I’ve included him here.) That makes them a little less desired on the market, but also means the acquisition cost should be lower. Although that list was published less than two weeks ago, the sand has already started to shift a bit under this market, and could potentially do so again in the weeks to come.

Quintana was having an excellent start to his season but has slipped recently. When he landed that #7 spot on the list a couple of weeks ago, he had a 3.33 ERA. However, he’s had two miserable starts since then, allowing four earned runs in 4 1/3 innings on July 1o, followed by six earned runs in five innings on July 15. His ERA has jumped up to 3.99 just from those two outings. Teams aren’t likely to radically alter their evaluation of a pitcher based on just two starts, especially with the latter taking place in Coors Field. But then again, Quintana’s strong first half was also a small sample, coming after a few years of ineffective work. He had a 4.68 ERA in 2019, then was limited to just ten innings in 2020 due to injury. Last year, he worked mostly as a reliever and put up a 6.43 ERA. He’s made 18 starts this year and two bad ones won’t completely undo the rest, but how much will a team value those 16 decent ones after years of mediocrity? Were those last two starts flukes or regression to the mean?

Pérez is in a similar boat, as he was out-pitching his track record in the early going but has come back down to earth of late. At the end of his start on June 5th, he had a 1.56 ERA but has a 4.54 since. He still has an excellent 2.68 mark on the season overall based on that strong start, but the recent rough patch raises questions. After eight straight seasons with an ERA between 4.38 and 6.22, has he suddenly turned a corner at the age of 31? Or was it a mirage that’s now fading from view? Either way, there’s also the extra complication that the Rangers might just hang onto Pérez and extend him.

Kuhl’s situation has some parallels as well, as he had a 3.17 ERA through his June 3 start but a 5.45 over his last seven outings. Further complicating matters is the fact that the Rockies seem to be leaning towards doing their thing that they do, holding onto obvious trade candidates and hoping to work out extensions. Last year, they didn’t trade Trevor Story, Jon Gray or C.J. Cron, despite all three heading towards free agency. They recouped a draft pick when Story rejected the qualifying offer and signed with the Red Sox, extended Cron but came up short in trying to hang onto Gray. This year, it seems like Kuhl might be this year’s Cron, as he’s apparently comfortable in Colorado and willing to stay beyond this season. Any team that wanted to acquire him would probably have to blow away the Rockies with an overpay.

As for Lyles, his situation has changed not so much because of his performance, but the rest of the team. When that list was published, the Orioles were 41-44. They were on a six-game win streak, but that seemed to be a flash in the pan of what would surely go down as another miserable season in Baltimore. Well, that six-game win streak eventually turned in a ten-gamer, and the O’s are now 46-46, just 2 1/2 games out of a playoff spot. Does that make them change their deadline approach? Perhaps, perhaps not. The odds of a postseason berth are still low, with FanGraphs giving them a 1.4% chance. But with excited fans turning out to Camden Yards for the first time in years, would the club still pull the plug on deadline selling? Lyles was just signed this offseason and isn’t a fan favorite like Trey Mancini. But with his 4.76 ERA, he’s not likely to bring back much more than a lottery ticket prospect anyway. Perhaps the O’s would be better served to just hang onto those innings and hope that 1.4% number grows.

Unlike the Orioles, the Angels have only dug themselves into a deeper hole. At the time MLBTR’s rankings came out, they were seven games out of a playoff spot, theoretically one hot streak away from jumping right back into the mix. However, they’ve unfortunately gone the other way, slipping to 10 1/2 back. That should only solidify Syndergaard as a guaranteed trade chip. But like many of the other pitchers highlighted here, he hasn’t been at his best lately. He had a 3.53 ERA through mid-June but a 5.01 over his last four starts. That’s a small sample, but he hasn’t looked like himself this season. After only throwing two innings over 2020-2021 due to Tommy John surgery and with his velocity down from his pre-surgery form, it’s fair to wonder if there might be some fatigue setting in.

Clevinger is a unique case, compared to the other names on this list. The Padres aren’t looking to sell because they’re not competitive, quite the opposite. It’s because they are competitive that they are looking to use their rotation surplus to create payroll space in order to upgrade elsewhere without going over the luxury tax. Moving Clevinger would be one way to do it, though his $5.75MM CBT hit is much less than Blake Snell’s $10MM. From San Diego’s perspective, moving Snell is probably preferable for the extra breathing space. A team could certainly try to work out a Clevinger deal, but you’d be competing with whatever teams are offering for Snell, as well as any other Clevinger suitors.

There are a few other names to consider, of course, but all come with similar question marks. Arizona’s Zach Davies is on the injured list with shoulder inflammation. Detroit’s Michael Pineda only recently returned from a broken finger and had his worst start of a generally underwhelming season just before the break. Mike Minor has an ERA north of 6.00 with the Reds.

All in all, there’s not a ton to bank on here. Any team that doesn’t pony up for Castillo, Montas or Mahle is going to be left with these options, all of whom come with question marks. There are other controllable starters who could be available, such as Oakland’s Paul Blackburn. But with three extra years of control, the A’s surely won’t just give him away. And he, too, has seen a downturn in performance over the last month (7.46 ERA over past five starts). We’re now less than two weeks until the August 2 trade deadline, so the remaining games for these pitchers will be magnified. With the expanded playoffs, there are still 17 teams that have at least a 29.7% chance to make the postseason, per FanGraphs. That has the potential for a situation with high demand and low supply in the days to come, bad news for those who need pitching but good news for those selling it.

Padres Place Joe Musgrove On COVID-IL, Activate Mike Clevinger

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The Padres activated right-hander Mike Clevinger from the COVID-related injury list today, while also placing righty Joe Musgrove on the COVID-IL.  In other moves, righty Reiss Knehr was called up from Triple-A El Paso, Kyle Tyler was optioned to Triple-A, and Matt Beaty was shifted to the 60-day IL.

Clevinger ended up missing a week of action, and he told reporters (including The Athletic’s Dennis Lin) that his symptoms were caused by a case of the flu that hit his entire household, rather than COVID-19.  For now, Clevinger is available to pitch out of the bullpen during the Padres’ weekend series against the Rockies, until San Diego can figure out how to fit him back into the rotation.

Musgrove’s situation could create an obvious opening, as Musgrove is set to start Wednesday’s game against the Diamondbacks.  It isn’t known if Musgrove has actually tested positive or if his placement was precautionary (due to symptoms or being a close contact), but in the latter situation, he could possibly be back in plenty of time to make that scheduled start.

Musgrove has been one of baseball’s best pitchers this season, while Clevinger has also pitched well over four starts, though his season has been delayed by IL stints due to a knee injury and a triceps strain.  Clevinger missed all of 2021 recovering from Tommy John surgery, so these additional health setbacks are surely a frustration to the 31-year-old, even if none of these injuries have been overly serious.

Once everyone is healthy, Nick Martinez will likely head back to the bullpen, as the Padres continue to manage a six-man rotation.  Blake Snell is the only member of this group that hasn’t pitched well in 2022, though Snell also missed over a month at the start of the season due to an adductor strain.

Injury Notes: Padres, Rangers, Rockies

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The Padres placed Mike Clevinger and Adrian Morejon on the COVID injured list, recalling Ray Kerr and Reiss Knehr from Triple-A, per the team. Kerr, 27, will give the Friars a third southpaw out of the bullpen behind closer Taylor Rogers and Tim Hill. Though Clevinger has been starting, Knehr, 25 will probably pitch in relief for now. Knehr has been tagged with a 5.84 ERA across 51 2/3 innings in Triple-A so far this season while making 10 starts and appearing twice in relief. The Padres rotation currently goes six deep, even with Clevinger out. Brent Rooker was also added to the active roster to serve as the 27th man for today’s doubleheader.

  • Rangers outfielder Steele Walker was placed on the COVID injured list, per the team. Zach Reks has been placed on the active roster to take his place. This will be Reks’ third go-round with the Rangers already this summer, though he’s been limited to just 22 plate appearances over nine games. Reks has torn it up for Round Rock, however, slashing .340/.433/.631 in 120 Triple-A plate appearances. Walker was only recently recalled for his big league debut. He’s gone just 1-for-14 at the plate with a pair of walks over five games. His lone hit was a solo shot. Walker, 25, was a former second-round pick of the White Sox, acquired straight-up in the deal for Nomar Mazara in December of 2019.
  • The Rockies have placed southpaw Ty Blach on the 15-day injured list with a left wrist sprain, per the team. Ryan Feltner was recalled from Triple-A to take his roster spot. Justin Lawrence was also added to the active roster to serve as the 27th man for today’s twin bill. Blach, 31, has made 15 appearances on the year (one start) with a 6.61 ERA over 31 1/3 innings.

 

Injury Notes: Clevinger, Kittredge, Kremer, Gregorius

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The Padres announced that right-hander Mike Clevinger has been reinstated from the injured list, with outfielder Brent Rooker being optioned in a corresponding move. After a lengthy absence from the majors while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Clevinger had to return to the IL after just three starts due to a triceps strain. Thankfully, he only required a minimum stay on the shelf and is quickly back on the roster, starting today’s game.

While many teams around the league are dealing with mounting injuries to their pitching staffs, the Padres now have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to their starting rotation. Clevinger joins Yu Darvish, Sean Manaea, Joe Musgrove, MacKenzie Gore and Blake Snell, with Nick Martinez likely getting bumped into a long-relief role. The club is off to a great start, sporting a record of 32-21, just three games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. The strength of their rotation has played a big role in that, as their collective 3.11 ERA is fourth-best in all of baseball, trailing only the Yankees, Dodgers and Astros.

Some other IL reinstatements from around the league…

  • The Rays announced that righty Andrew Kittredge has been reinstated from the injured list, with fellow righty Calvin Faucher being optioned to make room for him. Kittredge was slowed by some lower back tightness but is able to return after a minimum stay on the injured list. Last year, he threw 71 2/3 innings with a 1.88 ERA, 27.3% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 53.5% ground ball rate. That success earned him a key role in the bullpen, as he eventually earned eight saves and seven holds. He wasn’t able to continue that this year, possibly due to this back injury. Over 18 innings, his ERA is an even 3.00, with a 19.7% strikeout rate and 44.2% grounder rate, though he’s limited walks to just 1.5% of batters faced.
  • The Orioles reinstated righty Dean Kremer from the injured list today, with fellow righty Denyi Reyes being optioned in a corresponding move. Kremer landed on the injured list back in April due to an oblique strain. He is starting today’s ballgame for the O’s, which will be his season debut. His MLB time has been on the rough side so far, as his career ERA is currently 6.84 through 72 1/3 innings. However, while rehabbing from this injury, he’s thrown nine scoreless innings in the minors with a whopping 18 strikeouts against just two walks.
  • The Phillies announced that they have reinstated Didi Gregorius from the IL, with Nick Maton trading places with him, heading to the IL due to a right shoulder sprain. Gregorius returns after about a month on the IL due to a left knee sprain. Prior to that, he was hitting .288/.338/.356 on the season. The resulting 97 wRC+ indicates that his bat has been about 3% worse than league average, though it’s still a big improvement over last year’s wRC+ of 68. Maton was just recalled a few days ago to provide help in the middle infield when Jean Segura landed on the IL, but will now join him on the shelf after just two games. Without those two options, it’s likely that Gregorious, Bryson Stott and Johan Camargo will now share the middle infield duties.

Padres Place Mike Clevinger On 15-Day IL With Triceps Strain

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The Padres have announced that right-hander Mike Clevinger has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right triceps strain, retroactive to May 21. Fellow righty Steven Wilson have been recalled from Triple-A El Paso to take his place on the active roster.

Clevinger, 31, just recently returned from missing the entire 2021 campaign due to Tommy John surgery and will now head back to the injured list after just three starts. He threw 14 innings over those games with a 3.21 ERA, 25.4% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate and 46.2% ground ball rate. The righty’s most recent outing was his best, as Clevinger allowed just one hit over five shutout innings in a 3-0 victory over the Phillies on May 17.

The Padres didn’t provide a timeline for Clevinger’s absence, so the severity of the strain isn’t yet known. If there is any silver lining, it’s that Clevinger didn’t suffer any damage to his elbow or forearm, though another type of arm injury is naturally a concern. Clevinger’s 2022 debut was also delayed by a knee problem that developed during Spring Training.

Of all the teams in baseball, the Padres are perhaps best positioned to withstand an injury to their starting pitching corps, as they currently have a rotation surplus. Even without Clevinger in the mix, the club has Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Sean Manaea, Blake Snell, MacKenzie Gore and Nick Martinez as options for starting pitching duty. There had been speculation how San Diego would juggle all of these arms, and yet as is so often the case, injuries tend to eat into any perceived rotation surplus.

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