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Nick Castellanos

Marlins Notes: Payroll, Castellanos, Center Field, Sixto

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When the Marlins parted ways with Derek Jeter on March 1, reports in the immediate aftermath suggested that a rift had grown between Jeter and owner Bruce Sherman — in part due to a change in payroll expectation. Sherman, the team’s principal owner, pushed back on that notion in meeting with reporters today, plainly stating that the Marlins have money left to spend and plan to do just that (Twitter link via SportsGrid’s Craig Mish). That’s a subjective statement, of course, but it’ll be telling to see to what extent the Marlins are willing to further bolster the payroll.

Specifically, Jeter’s push to sign Nick Castellanos was reported to be a source of consternation. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported last week that he’d been willing to offer at least five years to bring the Miami native into the fold, but it’s less clear that Castellanos remains a priority post-lockout. Longtime Marlins beat writer Joe Frisaro reports that the Fish remain interested in Castellanos but characterizes them as a “long shot” to win the bidding for his services (Twitter link).

Castellanos would add a much-needed bat to the mix, and Sherman indeed told reporters in his media session: “We need bats” (link via Mish). However, even with the advent of the universal designated hitter, Castellanos is a little bit of an imperfect fit from a roster construction standpoint. Miami already has several corner options, including Avisail Garcia, Jesus Sanchez, Garrett Cooper and Bryan De La Cruz. However, the Marlins don’t have a true everyday center fielder, and general manager Kim Ng said this morning that finding such an option is a priority (Twitter link, with video, via MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola).

Ng acknowledged that Garcia is an option in center field and that they discussed the possibility of him playing center while in the process of negotiating his four-year contract. However, there’s little doubt that Garcia is best suited for corner-outfield work, which is generally the case with all of the Marlins’ in-house options. The free-agent market is rather light on options at the moment, which helps to explain why Miami has repeatedly pursued a trade for Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds. (Reynolds himself is best in a corner but also better defensively in center than Miami’s current options.) Presumably, they’re exploring additional options to roam center field.

Miami’s deep stock of pitching talent positions them nicely to pull of a trade for an outfielder, but their depth has taken at least something of a hit in recent months. Righty Zach Thompson went to the Pirates as part of the package to acquire catcher Jacob Stallings, and lefty Jake Eder underwent Tommy John surgery late in the 2021 season. It was also reported recently that righty Sixto Sanchez was behind schedule in his recovery from shoulder surgery, and Ng confirmed as much today (via Mish). Sanchez is currently shut down entirely and does not have a timetable to resume throwing. A recent MRI came back clean, Ng noted, but Sanchez had experienced discomfort when ramping up for the season.

Even still, the Marlins have Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez penciled into rotation spots, and there ought to be a spirited competition for the fifth starter’s job. Jesus Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, Braxton Garrett, Cody Poteet, Nick Neidert, Paul Campbell and Daniel Castano all started games in Miami last year. Ng said today that Cabrera will be late reporting to camp due to visa issues, which could put him a bit behind some of the others in terms of competing for that spot. Luzardo is the on-paper favorite for it, but a lot can change over the course of Spring Training. Injuries and performance can alter the picture, and it’s still possible that the Marlins include Hernandez in a deal to land an outfielder.

Phillies Searching For Outfielders

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In reigning National League MVP Bryce Harper – a two-time winner of the award – the Phillies have a solid base for putting together a top-shelf outfield. Of course, they still need two more bodies (or more) to help Mr. Harper patrol the grass, and the list of available names is about to start dwindling quickly. Already, in fact, they’re dealing with a depleted free-agent pool.

But it’s not barren, and there’s time yet for the Phillies to construct a competent trio in the outfield of Citizens Bank Park. By all accounts, they’re on the hunt for Harper’s next running mates. Nick Castellanos is the top pure outfielder remaining, and the Phillies have indeed checked in on him, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (via Twitter). Morosi notes that Phillies president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski ran the show in Detroit when Castellanos was drafted, so there’s certainly some history there.

Castellanos – a first-time All-Star with the Reds last season – would certainly bring much-needed thunder to a lineup that ranked 13th in MLB by the measure of runs scored in 2021. The former Tiger, Cub, and Red hit .309/.362/.576 with 34 home runs and a clean 100 RBIs last year, good for a robust 140 wRC+.

Of course, defense was a bit of a bugaboo for Joe Girardi’s club,  and Castellanos isn’t traditionally known for his merits in that department. The DH would be an option, though Rhys Hoskins is already a candidate for that role. Furthermore, Girardo will almost certainly want to earmark some of those ABs as a means for keeping Harper and J.T. Realmuto fresh.

In addition, the Phillies have been in recent contact with their on-again-off-again centerfielder Odubel Herrera, per Jim Salisbury of NBCSPhilly (via Twitter). Herrera posted 1.8 rWAR/1.1 fWAR last year as a regular in center, logging 492 trips to the dish across 124 games.

Herrera doesn’t walk a ton (5.9 percent walk rate), and his power clocks in below-average (.156 ISO), but he put the ball in play at a career-best rate last year, striking out in just 15.7 percent of his plate appearances. All in all, his bat was seven percent below average, which is absolutely palatable for a decent gloveman in center – and Herrera was that in 2021.

The Fielding Bible credited him with 2 total runs saved, while he rated decently in other systems as well (2 DRS, -1.2 UZR). Even if Herrera just holds the line in center, that might be enough for the Phils to seek a reunion. There are very few options on the free-agent market, and leaguewide, centerfield has become one of the more difficult positions to fill.

Without Herrera and Castellanos (or other additions), the Phillies have just unproven youngsters like Mickey Moniak and Adam Haseley on the roster. Roman Quinn has departed, while other members of Philly’s 2021 offense Andrew McCutchen and Brad Miller are still free agents. Utility players Johan Camargo and Luke Williams are internal options, but not realistically for regular playing time.

Elsewhere in the organization, 25-year-old Matt Vierling might be a game-by-game option in the grass, while the top prospective minor leaguers on the depth chart are non-roster invitee Justin Williams and 23-year-old prospect Simon Muzziotti, who has just 50 plate appearances above High-A.

NL Central Notes: Castellanos, Reds, Reynolds, Cardinals, Pujols, Kim

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The bullpen, a fifth starter, bench help, and backup catching were cited by Reds GM Nick Krall as possible target areas, Krall told The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale and other reporters, and the Reds could turn to either Major League or minor league free agents to address any of those needs.  In regards to one particular prominent free agent, Krall seemed to close the door on the chances of Nick Castellanos returning to Cincinnati, saying “we have not been engaged with his representatives.”

It doesn’t count as any big surprise that Castellanos will be moving on, since he was looking for a hefty new contract pre-lockout, and the Reds’ offseason moves have thus far been geared towards cutting and managing payroll (while still making some effort to contend for a playoff spot).  Since Castellanos rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer and because Cincinnati is a revenue-sharing recipient, the team stands to receive an extra pick after the first round of the 2022 draft should Castellanos sign elsewhere for more than $50MM.

More from around the NL Central…

  • Bryan Reynolds has drawn trade interest from at least seven teams over the last year, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports that the Padres are yet another club looking into obtaining the Pirates outfielder.  Trading for Reynolds would be a huge way for the Padres to address their outfield needs, though needless to say, San Diego would need to make a major offer to get the Pirates’ attention.  Pittsburgh has set a big asking price in any Reynolds trade, and in San Diego’s case, Rosenthal figures the Bucs would ask for top prospect CJ Abrams and more.
  • The Cardinals “have considered” a reunion with franchise icon Albert Pujols, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  However, Cards chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. was more non-committal about the idea of Pujols returning to the Gateway City, as DeWitt told reporters (including the Post-Dispatch’s Rick Hummel) that “we’ve got most of our club pretty well set.”  It should be noted that if Pujols is best served as a part-time first baseman and DH, such a depth role would still fit even on a Cardinals roster that has many of its positions settled around the diamond.
  • As for other Cardinals pitching needs, Goold writes that the Cards are expected to pursue more relief help, even after signing swingman Drew VerHagen on Friday.  St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters that the club thought about re-signing Kwang-Hyun Kim, but the left-hander instead opted to return to the Korean Baseball Organization just a few days before the lockout ended.

Latest On Michael Conforto’s Market

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4:10PM: Conforto is “not a top priority” for the Rockies, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post reports, though the club has some level of interest.

1:52PM: Michael Conforto’s market continues to grow, as the Diamondbacks “were among the teams showing the most interest in Conforto before the lockout,” The New York Post’s Mike Puma writes.  The Marlins had also been previously linked to Conforto, and Joe Frisaro of Man On Second tweets that Conforto remains on Miami’s list of outfield targets.

Such clubs as the Padres, Rockies, and Yankees have also been reported as suitors for Conforto’s services, with his market thus far representing an interesting cross-section of contenders and teams who struggled in 2021.  The D’Backs are coming off a 110-loss season, while the Marlins followed up an appearance in the expanded 2020 playoff bracket with a 95-loss campaign last year.

This wide range of interested clubs could reflect Conforto’s status coming off a subpar (by his standards) .232/.344/.384 season over 479 plate appearances with the Mets.  While Conforto rejected the Mets’ qualifying offer, speculation persists that Conforto might look for a shorter-term contract that would allow him to re-test free agency next winter.  Since Conforto surely feels he’ll hit better in 2022, he naturally wouldn’t want to short-change himself by signing a longer-term contract now that is reflective of his 2021 numbers.

Even if Conforto is “looking for big free agent pay day,” as Frisaro puts it, he could still land a healthy salary on a one-year deal, which opens the door for many teams as possible fits.  Clubs that may be wary of a longer-term commitment to Conforto (or not keen on longer-term commitments in general) could certainly be more open to a one-year arrangement, since a Conforto that returns to his 2015-20 form is a major addition to any lineup.

Though Arizona would seemingly be closer to a rebuild than a true push for contention next season, the D’Backs haven’t been willing to entirely blow things up, as the team still has some interesting core pieces as well as some younger players hoped to be on the verge of a breakout.  To this end, the Snakes signed Mark Melancon to a two-year, $14MM deal prior to the lockout, and president/CEO Derrick Hall said yesterday that the Diamondbacks were looking to add some offense.

Hall said he “could easily” see a scenario where Arizona spends $17MM to push the projected 2022 payroll up to the $110MM range.  Since Conforto would certainly want to at least top the cost of the qualifying offer ($18.4MM) on any one-year deal, he’d cost more than $17MM, thus putting him at the high end of the Diamondbacks’ possible spending range.  Plus, if that hypothetical $17MM represents all the front office would have to spend on remaining needs, it is quite possible the D’Backs would prefer to spread that money around to several players rather than splurge on Conforto alone.

Conforto’s rejection of the QO could represent an obstacle for both the Diamondbacks and the Marlins, as either team would have to give up their third-highest pick in the 2022 draft as compensation for signing the outfielder.  Surrendering such a notable pick for what might be a short-term deal is a hefty price to pay for an Arizona team that isn’t really in position to contend in 2022.

Likewise, the Marlins had also been wary about QO free agents when making their winter moves, but Miami has been more clear about its intent to challenge for a postseason berth next season.  The Marlins have already signed Avisail Garcia and traded for both Jacob Stallings and Joey Wendle, and the Fish have also been reportedly chasing such big-ticket trade candidates as the Pirates’ Bryan Reynolds.

Just how much more the Marlins are willing to spend on upgrades, however, is still an unknown.  Derek Jeter’s surprising departure as the team’s CEO was (according to some accounts) due to a change in ownership’s approach to spending heading into the 2022 campaign.  Prior to the lockout, the Jeter-led Marlins were in talks with Nick Castellanos on a contract of longer than five years, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), though only time will tell if such major expenditures are still on the Marlins’ radar now that the lockout is over.

Naturally, the Marlins can still improve their team without spending a ton of money — the Stallings and Wendle trades are evidence of that, and Miami has a lot of young pitching depth that could bring back a cost-controlled talent like Reynolds in a further swap.  Conforto might also represent an interesting middle ground for the team, if he was indeed open to only a one-year contract.  Miami could take the one-year payroll boost to add Conforto, look to benefit from a possible rebound year from the former All-Star, and then watch him depart in free agency next winter.

Jeter’s Departure From Marlins Tied To Change In Plans For Post-Lockout Spending

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TODAY: A Marlins source disputes the idea that Jeter left the organization over a change in future spending plans, The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson reports. There were several other “issues” between Jeter and majority owner Bruce Sherman, including Sherman’s displeasure at low attendance for home games. Sherman had decided against extending Jeter’s contract and thus the parting between the two sides “was more…Sherman’s decision than Jeter’s,” even if it was portrayed as a mutual decision since “Sherman had told an associate it would be difficult for him to publicly fire Jeter.”

FEBRUARY 28: Derek Jeter’s abrupt departure from the Marlins organization earlier this morning stunned the baseball world. Jeter’s citing of a “vision for the future of the franchise is different than the one I signed up to lead” prompted plenty of speculation about the team’s spending moving forward, and Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that a change in spending plans indeed served as a tipping point for Jeter (Twitter link). Sherman suggests that Jeter believed there to be as much as $15MM to spend on the 2022 roster after the lockout, but that outlook “evaporated” over the course of the lockout.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that the Marlins were in serious talks with Miami native Nick Castellanos about a homecoming prior to the lockout. The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans tweets that he’d consistently heard the Marlins were the favorites to sign Castellanos. Those two reports, paired with Sherman’s report, seem to suggest that such a signing is no longer feasible for the Fish. (As an aside, many expect Castellanos to command more than $15MM annually, although the Marlins could have theoretically backloaded a deal to accommodate ownership’s 2022 budget.)

SportsGrid’s Craig Mish tweets that the Marlins are still expected to add to the roster after the lockout, but it seems that perhaps principal owner Bruce Sherman’s vision for the scope of those (and other) forthcoming additions has changed. Discord between Jeter and Sherman has been brewing for a good while longer than just these past couple of months, however, per ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link), who tweets that there was a “growing divide” dating back to last spring. The mounting differences between Jeter and Sherman, Olney adds, were a key reason that Jeter’s ownership stake in the team did not grow as it had been expected to.

Whether there’d been friction between Jeter and Sherman prior to early 2021 isn’t clear, but if that’s where the pair’s visions began to diverge, there’d be a pretty logical explanation for it. Shortly after Sherman and Jeter’s group purchased the Marlins, the Miami Herald obtained a copy of the team’s pitch to prospective investors, including future spending plans. Some payroll reductions were always in the offing, as evidenced by the quick dismantling of an All-Star outfield (Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna), but those moves were made with the intention of ramping payroll back up down the line.

The Marlins’ Opening Day payroll in 2018 sat just under $100MM, but that number dipped to $72MM in 2019 and was again at that $73MM level in 2020 (prior to prorating salaries) before dropping to $56MM in 2021. The revenue losses from that pandemic-impacted 2020 season changed the direction of many organizations (e.g. Reds, Guardians, D-backs), and it’s certainly feasible that Sherman’s own willingness to spend was impacted as well.

To be clear, the Marlins have spent this offseason. Avisail Garcia’s four-year, $53.5MM deal is one of the largest free-agent contracts they’ve ever handed out, and the team doled out extensions to both Sandy Alcantara and Miguel Rojas while also acquiring Joey Wendle and Jacob Stallings. That said, Miami’s projected payroll for the forthcoming season is still under $70MM, and if ownership sought to curtail available resources for the 2022, as Sherman reports, it’s possible future seasons would also be impacted.

As ESPN’s Marly Rivera reminds (Twitter link), Jeter spoke favorably about his former organization’s front office, noting that the Yankees are always on the hunt to improve. “I’ve said it before, the Steinbrenner family, from the Boss to Hal, they’re always trying to get better, get better, get better, and they don’t hesitate to make big moves,” Jeter said at the time. Yankee fans may disagree in light of the team’s quiet pre-lockout period, but Jeter’s general tenor this past July does not sound like one that would align with a sudden tightening of the purse strings.

Across social media, players have taken Jeter’s departure as what they perceive as another example of the issues they’re fighting for in labor talks with the league. Astros catcher Jason Castro, one of the eight members on the MLBPA’s executive subcommittee, tweeted a “Re2pect” message to Jeter and used the hashtag “#CompetitiveIntegrity” as well. As ESPN’s Alden Goznalez writes, players perceive a disconnect between ownership pushing for the status quo in revenue sharing, the luxury tax, etc. in the name of competitive balance and Jeter departing largely because of questions regarding the rest of ownership’s “financial commitment to the roster.”

Marlins shortstop Miguel Rojas, the team’s clubhouse leader and unofficial captain, spoke to Jomboy’s Chris Rose today in the wake of Jeter’s sudden departure (Instagram video). “Derek Jeter was looking to win — looking to win this year,” said Rojas. “We all know that in order to be able to win, you need to put a better product on the field, which is what they were doing before the lockout started.”

Rojas praised the team for extending Alcantara but noted that last season, there were virtually no players other than himself on multi-year deals. (Reliever Anthony Bass was also on a small two-year contract.) Extending Rojas and signing Garcia were undoubtedly well-received among the players on the roster, but Rojas expressed questions, doubt and general sadness in speaking with Rose.

“I don’t know about the money situation,” Rojas said after being asked about the Post report that changes in payroll expectation led to Jeter’s departure. “I don’t know about promises of a better payroll or anything like that. I just heard something that they said — that this is the time to take the next step. It’s our time to take the next step in this ’build’ that they promised. … It was time to make the move to get not just a better team, but better quality up and down the organization. I don’t know what happened.

“…At the end of the day, I have a lot of questions. There’s some things that have to be communicated after this thing’s over, because we as the players, we want to be respected and informed what’s going on. I know not everything is going to be shared with the players, but at the end of the day, you at least want to know where you’re going.”

Latest On Nick Castellanos

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The crop of unsigned corner outfielders remains strong, with Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Conforto still yet to put pen to paper. There’s a case that Castellanos is the best pure outfielder still available, although interest from what appeared to be one of his primary suitors may be more muted than expected.

Reports from before the institution of the lockout suggested the Padres were among the teams with “strong interest” in Castellanos. However, as part of a reader mailbag this week, Dennis Lin of the Athletic writes the club doesn’t seem to be “terribly high” on the 29-year-old. While San Diego was at least in contact with Castellanos’ representatives at the Boras Corporation before the lockout, Lin downplays the possibility of San Diego committing either a five-year or a nine-figure investment to Castellanos coming out of the transactions freeze.

Unsurprisingly, he and his reps came out aiming higher, reportedly seeking seven or eight guaranteed years. Something of that length (especially eight years) would register as a surprise but a strong five or six year pact would align with broader expectations; we at MLBTR predicted a five-year term at a total of $115MM on our Top 50 Free Agent rankings to begin the offseason.

No doubt part of San Diego’s reluctance to spend at that level is their already-cluttered payroll. Manny Machado ($32MM), Will Myers ($22.5MM), Eric Hosmer ($20.625MM) and Yu Darvish ($20MM) are all slated for hefty salaries in 2022, parts of a projected $199MM player payroll (via Jason Martinez of Roster Resource) that’d top last season’s franchise-record mark by by around $25MM. Lin writes that some within the organization have suggested there may not be a ton of room to take on additional salary this offseason.

San Diego has tried to save some payroll room by moving Hosmer and/or Myers in trade. Shedding much or all of Hosmer’s money ($61.5MM through 2025) would likely require attaching significant young talent, further thinning a farm system that has depleted as the Padres have pushed their chips in to compete over the past few seasons. It’d probably be easier to find a taker for Myers, who’s entering the final year of his deal. Yet that would also require paying down some money or surrendering young talent, and it’d further deplete an already lacking corner outfield group.

Also complicating matters, the Padres narrowly exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. The previous collective bargaining agreement contained escalating penalties for teams that surpassed the tax in multiple consecutive seasons. Where the thresholds are set and whether escalating penalties for repeat payors will persist in the next CBA is to be determined but could affect the Padres willingness to push their payroll higher after the transactions freeze.

San Diego exceeding the tax is also relevant to their chances of pursuing a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer from his previous team, as Castellanos did from the Reds. As a tax payor, the Friars would relinquish their second-highest and fifth-highest selections in the 2022 amateur draft as well as $1MM in international signing bonus pool space were they to sign a qualified free agent.

So, if not the Padres, where might Castellanos and Boras turn? The Marlins have been reported to harbor interest in Castellanos, a Miami-area native, since before the offseason even began. The Fish already committed four years and $55MM to Avisail Garcia, but they’re still in the hunt for another bat. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald wrote recently that Castellanos “would welcome” a homecoming deal with the Marlins … but only “if the terms were right.” Fish fans hoping for a hometown discount should probably temper their optimism.

Still, there’s reason to believe that if the Marlins are truly intent on bolstering their lineup, they could at least make the financials on a Castellanos signing work. Miami currently projects to have a payroll just shy of $69MM, and there’s only $27MM in guaranteed contracts on the books for the 2023 season. In terms of a positional fit, they’re already rife with corner outfield options, but GM Kim Ng has told reporters this winter that the team is comfortable utilizing Garcia in center field. It’s also possible, if not likely, that a designated hitter will be added to the National League, which would only give the Marlins — or any other NL club — more at-bats to give to Castellanos.

Where Will Castellanos And Schwarber Land?

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As comparable bat-first players, Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber were the topic of a Free Agent Faceoff post by Darragh McDonald last week.  Back on November 8th, MLBTR projected a five-year, $115MM contract for Castellanos (who also requires draft pick compensation) and a four-year, $70MM deal for Schwarber.

We debated whether such a financial gap makes sense – is Castellanos really that much better right now?  Ultimately we projected the difference to represent our guess at the perception of the two players: Castellanos has always been a regular in his career and signed a four-year, $64MM free agent deal already, while Schwarber was non-tendered after the 2020 season and was often shielded against lefties as a member of the Cubs.  We could be wrong about this supposed difference in perception; the post-lockout market will provide the answer.  On November 29th, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com tweeted that Castellanos sought a seven or eight-year deal.

Since switching to the outfield full-time in 2018, Castellanos has spent the vast majority of his defensive innings in right field.  Schwarber settled in as a left fielder as of 2017, though the Red Sox used him as a first baseman in 10 regular season games plus another nine in the postseason.  In a perfect world, both players might spend most of their time at designated hitter, which seems likely to become a permanent part of the National League in 2022.  One key difference between the two is that Castellanos bats right-handed, and Schwarber bats left-handed.  Let’s take a look at potential suitors.

  • White Sox: Eloy Jimenez is entrenched in left field and Jose Abreu will play first base in ’22, but the Sox could consider an upgrade at right field or designated hitter, where Adam Engel, Andrew Vaughn, and Gavin Sheets currently project to see time.  Signing Castellanos would result in the club forfeiting their second-highest draft pick in ’22 and having their international signing pool reduced by $500K, assuming rules from the previous CBA carry over for the remainder of the offseason.  I don’t see the White Sox making this level of financial commitment with decent options already in-house.
  • Guardians:  The Guardians’ DH spot is occupied by Franmil Reyes, but they don’t have much going on at the outfield corners and figure to make some sort of addition.  The franchise has never guaranteed a player more than the $60MM they gave Carlos Santana five years ago.  It’s possible the price tag for Castellanos or Schwarber falls into that range.  The Guardians have perhaps $36MM accounted for across eight players earning more than the league minimum.  Aside from Jose Ramirez at $12MM, they might not have another player set to earn more than $5MM in 2022.  If the team runs a $50MM Opening Day payroll again, then Castellanos and Schwarber won’t be part of it, but the team reached $135MM as recently as 2018.  The Guardians also face a smaller draft pick penalty, as they’d surrender only their third-highest pick for Castellanos.
  • Tigers: Castellanos was a first round draft pick of the Tigers in 2010 and remained with the organization until his 2019 trade to the Cubs.  On the way out, he called Comerica Park “a joke,” so he’s probably not looking to return.  Aside from that, Castellanos would actually look really good at an outfield corner or the DH spot for the Tigers, and their draft pick compensation would be reduced since they already signed Eduardo Rodriguez.  But the club hasn’t given indications it’s looking to upgrade at those spots, so both Castellanos and Schwarber are probably out.
  • Royals: The Royals have never given a free agent more than $72MM, and that was their own guy in Alex Gordon.  Otherwise, I think adding one of these players at right field or DH would improve the club.
  • Twins: The Twins could upgrade on projected left fielder Trevor Larnach, but given the state of their starting rotation this doesn’t seem likely.
  • Red Sox: Though they traded for Schwarber during the summer, I’m not sure a big commitment to either player is necessary or fits Chaim Bloom’s m.o.  They’ve got good first base options in Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas.  J.D. Martinez has the DH spot at least for 2022.  Boston’s outfield is a bit unsettled with the swap of Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr., but they’ve still got Alex Verdugo, Kiké Hernández, and Jarren Duran in the mix.  Hernandez could play second base and Schwarber or Castellanos could work here, if Bloom is OK with the commitment.  Bloom did maintain interest in Schwarber in his public comments, even after Martinez opted in.
  • Yankees:  The Yankees have Aaron Judge and Joey Gallo at the outfield corners, Giancarlo Stanton at DH, and Luke Voit at first base.  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber doesn’t make much sense.  They still haven’t added a shortstop or starting pitching.
  • Rays: The Rays have never given a free agent more than $30MM in the Stuart Sternberg era.  They’re also flush with outfielders, even if they’re not at the proven offensive levels of Castellanos and Schwarber.  Perhaps if the bottom drops out for Schwarber’s market, the Rays trade away an outfielder or two, and they decide they’d like a big bat, this could make sense.  But it’s highly unlikely.
  • Blue Jays: Between right field and DH, the Jays could accommodate Castellanos or Schwarber.  A third baseman would seem a more obvious fit, but the Jays could pivot to one of these bats if needed or even add at both spots.
  • Astros: There’s simply not a spot for either player, with Michael Brantley, Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, and Yuli Gurriel already in tow.
  • Angels:  Adding Castellanos or Schwarber would involve pushing aside Brandon Marsh or Jo Adell, who have had limited success in the Majors thus far.  It’s not out of the question, but the Angels have more pressing needs at shortstop and in the rotation.  The Angels would have to give up their third-highest pick to sign Castellanos, having already forfeited their second rounder to sign Noah Syndergaard.
  • Mariners: It’d be odd to see the Mariners sign Castellanos or Schwarber instead of extending Mitch Haniger, who has one more year of team control.  Uber-prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are long-term outfield answers, and Kyle Lewis is also in the mix.  You could shoehorn in one of the free agent bats in Seattle, but it’s not an ideal fit.  The Mariners would surrender only their fourth-highest pick for signing Castellanos, having already signed Robbie Ray.
  • Rangers:  The Rangers have already lost their second and third-highest draft picks in 2022 for signing Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.  They’d give up their fourth-rounder to sign Castellanos.  You could view that as a lessened draft pick penalty, or you might say that the team won’t be inclined to further decimate their draft.  Kole Calhoun is slated to spend time in right field for the Rangers, but both outfield corners and DH are possible areas of upgrade.  Unless the Rangers have mostly reached their spending or draft pick forfeiture limit, Castellanos and Schwarber make sense here.

If the National League gets the DH, Castellanos and Schwarber could fit position-wise into any of these teams, since none of them actually have an incumbent DH.

  • Cubs: The Cubs’ decision to non-tender Schwarber looked foolish in 2021, but I don’t expect them to respond by signing him to a large free agent contract.  Castellanos was a popular, productive player in his brief time with the Cubs, and he could supplant Jason Heyward in right field.  But even if Castellanos’ demands dropped into the Cubs’ comfort zone (probably three years), the club would likely be reluctant to surrender their second-round draft pick.  If somehow Castellanos is not liking the offers (and perhaps the season starts late), perhaps he could pull a Keuchel/Kimbrel and sign after the draft.  In that case I could see the Cubs becoming interested, but it’s a long shot.
  • Reds: With the club in cost-cutting mode, they’re not expected to re-sign Castellanos or any other big free agent.
  • Brewers: The Brewers are set on the outfield corners with Christian Yelich and Hunter Renfroe.  DH is open, and there could be first base at-bats as well, but I think payroll restrictions would be the issue here unless one of the players drops his demands and/or they clear salary.
  • Cardinals: With Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, and Paul Goldschmidt, the clearest path to playing time would be at DH.  The Cardinals are not out of the question, but it’d be a surprise.
  • Braves: The Braves have Marcell Ozuna and Adam Duvall slated for the outfield corners.  It’s unclear what they plan to do with Ozuna following last year’s domestic violence incident.  I could see the Braves looking into Castellanos or Schwarber at three years or fewer, but probably only in a scenario where Freddie Freeman signs elsewhere.
  • Marlins: As a native of Hialeah, Florida, Castellanos has often been linked to the Marlins.  They already signed Avisail Garcia to play right field, but were said to still be in the market for outfielders.  On December 2nd, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald wrote that the club viewed Castellanos as too expensive, but Schwarber “particularly appeals to them.”  Jackson and Mish reported that Schwarber’s asking price was in the three-year, $60MM range.
  • Mets: The Mets could potentially squeeze in one of these players at DH, though the rotation would seem to be a greater priority.  Castellanos is likely out, as signing him would require the Mets to forfeit the #14 pick in the draft.
  • Phillies: The Phillies could add a bat at left field or DH, though neither Castellanos or Schwarber would help with their center field void.  There’s a Dave Dombrowski-Castellanos connection from their time in Detroit together, and they’re known to have had contact prior to the lockout.  The club reportedly pursued Schwarber as well.
  • Nationals: The Nats could use Schwarber back in left field or at DH, but signing either player long-term wouldn’t fit as part of a reboot.  Still, asked if he wants Schwarber back, GM Mike Rizzo replied, “Why wouldn’t we?” back in November.  Starting pitching would seem to be a greater priority.
  • Rockies: The Rockies have yet to address their outfield this offseason, and I think they’re a viable suitor for both players.  Either one could be plugged in easily at an outfield corner or DH.
  • Dodgers: Castellanos or Schwarber would likely have to split time between left field and DH if they were to sign with the Dodgers.  It doesn’t seem like their type of signing, and the rotation is more pressing.
  • Padres: Left field and DH both work here, and the Padres are known to be looking for a bat.  The Padres are a viable suitor for either player, though they may need to clear payroll space.  The club reportedly showed strong interest in Castellanos prior to the lockout.
  • Giants: The Giants have Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. penciled in at the outfield corners, and I think Castellanos or Schwarber would be an easy roster fit.  The Giants can afford to sign any player they want, so it’s really just a matter of whether they like the value of these players, wherever their contracts land.  The Giants are not thought to be interested in $100MM contracts, though Castellanos won’t necessarily land there.

We’ll let the MLBTR readership weigh in. Where will each player end up?

(poll links for app users)

Where Will Nick Castellanos Sign?
Padres 12.26% (820 votes)
Giants 10.79% (722 votes)
Phillies 10.58% (708 votes)
Cubs 6.44% (431 votes)
Marlins 5.92% (396 votes)
Reds 5.04% (337 votes)
White Sox 4.60% (308 votes)
Red Sox 4.26% (285 votes)
Rangers 3.72% (249 votes)
Blue Jays 3.21% (215 votes)
Braves 2.84% (190 votes)
Cardinals 2.62% (175 votes)
Guardians 2.60% (174 votes)
Tigers 2.56% (171 votes)
Brewers 2.30% (154 votes)
Mariners 2.11% (141 votes)
Dodgers 2.11% (141 votes)
Rockies 2.11% (141 votes)
Yankees 2.09% (140 votes)
Angels 1.90% (127 votes)
Mets 1.84% (123 votes)
Nationals 1.81% (121 votes)
Pirates 1.11% (74 votes)
Orioles 1.09% (73 votes)
Astros 1.00% (67 votes)
Twins 0.81% (54 votes)
A's 0.67% (45 votes)
Royals 0.66% (44 votes)
Rays 0.55% (37 votes)
D-Backs 0.42% (28 votes)
Total Votes: 6,691

 

Where Will Kyle Schwarber Sign?
Red Sox 19.20% (1,202 votes)
Phillies 13.79% (863 votes)
Cubs 5.26% (329 votes)
Nationals 5.24% (328 votes)
Cardinals 4.55% (285 votes)
Giants 4.41% (276 votes)
Blue Jays 4.19% (262 votes)
Padres 3.95% (247 votes)
White Sox 3.93% (246 votes)
Yankees 3.83% (240 votes)
Marlins 3.19% (200 votes)
Guardians 2.59% (162 votes)
Mets 2.54% (159 votes)
Rockies 2.30% (144 votes)
Brewers 2.08% (130 votes)
Rangers 2.03% (127 votes)
Reds 1.98% (124 votes)
Braves 1.93% (121 votes)
Tigers 1.84% (115 votes)
Mariners 1.69% (106 votes)
Angels 1.58% (99 votes)
Dodgers 1.45% (91 votes)
Pirates 1.20% (75 votes)
Twins 1.05% (66 votes)
Orioles 0.86% (54 votes)
A's 0.78% (49 votes)
Rays 0.77% (48 votes)
Royals 0.73% (46 votes)
Astros 0.58% (36 votes)
D-Backs 0.48% (30 votes)
Total Votes: 6,260

 

Free Agent Faceoff: Nick Castellanos Vs. Kyle Schwarber

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Prior to the lockout, a flurry of hot stove activity led to free agents flying off the shelves at lightning speed, especially starting pitchers. However, one segment of the bazaar that wasn’t quite as frenzied was the corner outfield market. Mark Canha and Avisail Garcia signed with the Mets and Marlins, respectively, and utility man Chris Taylor returned to the Dodgers. But that leaves plenty of options still unsigned, including Michael Conforto, Seiya Suzuki, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Soler and many others.

However, the top two corner outfield bats, both of whom also remain unsigned, are Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. (Kris Bryant is also still available, though he figures to garner plenty of interest as a third baseman.) Despite some subtle differences in their profiles, Castellanos and Schwarber have offered fairly similar production in recent seasons. Castellanos generally offers more in terms of batting average, with Schwarber making up the difference by having a stronger walk rate. But both bring similar power to the table, along with subpar defensive abilities. (Both players figure to benefit from the implementation of the universal DH, widely expected to be part of the next CBA.)

Just how comparable are they? Let’s look at the last five seasons:

Castellanos: .286/.339/.518, 123 wRC+, 11.7 fWAR.
Schwarber: .236/.342/.495, 117 wRC+, 10.8 fWAR.

How about the last three years?

Castellanos: .287/.341/.539, 125 wRC+, 7.3 fWAR.
Schwarber: .245/.346/.516, 123 wRC+, 5.9 fWAR.

Just 2021:

Castellanos: .309/.362/.576, 140 wRC+, 4.2 fWAR.
Schwarber: .266/.374/.554, 145 wRC+, 3.1 fWAR.

However, despite that similar production, their markets have a couple of important differences. First of all, Castellanos is almost exactly one year older. He’ll turn 30 on March 4, with Schwarber turning 29 the very next day. Secondly, Castellanos received and rejected a qualifying offer, meaning the team that signs him will have to surrender a draft pick and potentially international bonus pool money. (For a refresher on what determines the penalty for signing a QO’d free agent, check out this post.) Schwarber, on the other hand, was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer due to the fact that he was traded midseason.

Perhaps the biggest difference, however, is financial. Castellanos was predicted by MLBTR to get a contract of $115MM over five years. But prior to the lockout, the most recent news about his market was that he was looking for a seven- or eight-year deal. Schwarber, on the other hand, was reportedly looking for an offer around $60MM over three years, not too far from the $70MM over four years that MLBTR predicted.

While Castellanos generally comes out ahead of Schwarber when looking at the statistics, it seems it may take a commitment twice as long in order to sign him, in addition to the penalty the signing team would be paying because of the QO. Taking all of that into consideration, if you were sitting in the general manager’s chair, who would you be calling after the lockout ends?

(poll link for app users)

Who Would You Rather Sign?
Nick Castellanos 54.02% (4,306 votes)
Kyle Schwarber 45.98% (3,665 votes)
Total Votes: 7,971

Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order.  For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

  • Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
  • Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
  • Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

  • Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
  • Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
  • Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
  • Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.

Giants Unlikely To Pursue Free Agents With Nine-Figure Asking Prices

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Prior to the lockout, the Giants worked quickly to revamp a rotation that appeared poised to lose as many as four members to free agency. Right-hander Anthony DeSclafani returned on a three-year, $36MM contract and was joined by lefty Alex Wood, who inked a two-year deal worth $25MM. Right-hander Alex Cobb was add to the mix on a two-year, $20MM deal.

That gives San Francisco three veteran arms to slot in behind burgeoning ace Logan Webb, but the Giants also allowed top 2020-21 starter Kevin Gausman to depart, declining to match the five-year, $110MM contract he received from the Blue Jays. The decision to let Gausman walk is of extra note now, as ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reports in his latest look at what to expect throughout the league, post-lockout, that there’s a belief the Giants aren’t keen on pursuing any targets with nine-figure asking prices.

That serves as a potential explanation for why the team ultimately let Gausman leave, and it could also be instructive when forecasting what’s on the horizon for president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, GM Scott Harris and the rest of the front office. Zaidi has already thrown some cold water on the idea of re-signing Kris Bryant, for instance, and if the Giants are indeed averse to $100MM+ commitments, his return would seem highly unlikely. San Francisco didn’t seem like a great match for most of the remaining free agents with that type of asking price in the first place (e.g. Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Trevor Story), though eschewing contracts of this magnitude could take them out of the running  not only for Bryant but for Nick Castellanos, who has reportedly sought a seven- or even eight-year deal.

An aversion to lengthy deals of this magnitude would align with the approach employed by the archrival Dodgers during Zaidi’s time as general manager under L.A. president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman. Like the Dodgers, the Giants are a major-market team with huge payroll capacity, but we’ve yet to see them dole out the type of long-term arrangements that were more common under the prior Giants front office regime. That’s not to say Zaidi’s Giants definitively won’t sign a $100MM+ deal at some point — they reportedly pursued Bryce Harper when he was a free agent — but thus far, indications point more toward the shorter-term, higher-annual-value deals that are increasingly popular as many teams seek to mitigate long-term risk.

Whenever the transaction freeze finally thaws, the Giants still have some work to do. In addition to another proven rotation piece, at least one outfield upgrade would make sense, and there’s always room for a contending club to bolster its bullpen. The Giants have about $126MM in 2022 commitments and about $135MM worth of luxury-tax obligations at the moment, per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, which ought to leave ample room for spending. Michael Conforto, Kyle Schwarber and Seiya Suzuki are among the notable free-agent alternatives still on the outfield market, and the likely implementation of a DH in the National League would give the Giants further runway to explore creative options. As for the pitching needs, Carlos Rodon is seeking a multi-year deal but probably won’t command an especially lengthy deal after ending the season with shoulder concerns.

Beyond the free-agent market, the Giants (and other teams) have myriad trade opportunities to consider. The A’s and Reds are known to have starting pitchers available. The Mets’ recent wave of free-agent spending pushed some notable bats to the bench. Speculatively, San Francisco could swing for the fences and try to pry Ketel Marte from the D-backs or even Cedric Mullins from the Orioles. There’s no real limit to what paths the Giants could explore, particularly since the team’s farm system has improved by leaps and bounds in recent years (landing No. 5 among MLB clubs on Baseball America’s mid-August rankings).

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