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Nick Castellanos

Marlins Notes: Schwarber, Marte, Castellanos, Pina, Gomes, Stallings

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The Marlins are known to be looking for more outfield help, with Kyle Schwarber already reported as one of the names on the team’s radar.  Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of The Miami Herald shed some more light on the Marlins’ pursuit, writing that Schwarber is looking for a three-year contract worth around $60MM.

Such a deal would top the Marlins’ four-year, $53MM pact with Avisail Garcia in dollars if not years, though it would also fall short of the four years and $70MM MLBTR projected Schwarber to land this winter.  Three years and $60MM is still a healthy sum, particularly for a team with Miami’s traditionally limited payrolls, yet the Marlins have already shown a greater willingness to spend in order to upgrade their offense.

The Phillies are another team that has been linked to Schwarber, while the Red Sox and Nationals (the slugger’s two most recent clubs) have also expressed some level of interest in a reunion.  Since several of the top free-agent bats have already landed new deals, Schwarber’s status as one of the top hitters available has only risen, so it’s fair to assume that other teams have already shown interest or will do so once the post-lockout dust settles.  It remains to be seen whether Schwarber’s market will develop to the point where the Marlins or any other club eventually puts a four-year offer on the table.

Of other outfielders linked to the Marlins, Nick Castellanos “is viewed as too expensive,” while Eddie Rosario is another consideration if Schwarber is also ultimately deemed to be beyond Miami’s price range.  Recent reports indicated that Castellanos is looking to score a seven- or eight-year contract, and even if that is an aim-high projection that could be lowered post-lockout, it would still seem like Castellanos might not be a fit for the Fish.  Additionally, signing Castellanos have a further cost in the form of draft pick compensation, since he rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer.

The Marlins could possibly avoid the free agent route entirely by landing an outfielder in a trade, as before the lockout, Jackson and Mish note that Miami was in “ongoing discussions with one American League team.”  The in-house fallback plan would be to have Brian Anderson play right field and the newly-acquired Joey Wendle take over as the everyday third baseman, but the Fish would prefer to have an established outfielder on the grass rather than Anderson, even if Anderson has looked at home as an outfielder.  Anderson had a 7.9 UZR/150 and +6 Defensive Runs Saved over 1223 innings as a right fielder in 2018-19, but is also coming off an injury-plagued 2021 season.

Miami’s offseason pursuits led them to consider such players as Starling Marte, Manny Pina, and Yan Gomes, with the first two receiving contract offers.  For Marte, the Marlins and two other teams made four-year offers worth roughly $60MM, and according to Jackson/Mish, Miami was prepared to spend a little more to bring Marte back to South Beach.  Marte’s camp wanted something around a $70MM payday, however, and ended up topping that number handily with the $78MM over four years that Marte received from the Mets.

Pina was another player the Marlins lost to a division rival, as while the Fish offered Pina $4MM on a one-year deal, the Braves doubled that offer and signed Pina for two years and $8MM.  However, the Marlins instead landed a longer-term target in Jacob Stallings, acquiring the backstop from the Pirates for a three-player trade package.  Interestingly, Jackson/Mish write that the Red Sox came very close to trading for Stallings, which would have indicated the Sox were ready to move on from Christian Vazquez either next winter (2022 is Vazquez’s last year under contract) or perhaps this offseason if a trade partner could have been found.

Padres Have Reportedly Expressed Interest In Nick Castellanos

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Serving as one of the last free agent rumors of the night before yesterday’s lockout officially commenced, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Padres were “showing strong interest” in free agent Nick Castellanos. An important disclaimer here is that teams are prohibited from contacting players or making any transactions during the duration of this lockout. Ultimately, it remains to be seen how strongly yesterday’s reported interest in Castellanos will persist when the transaction freeze is over. Nonetheless, this is a notable piece of insight into how San Diego may operate when they’re free to bolster their roster again.

The 29-year-old Castellanos should appeal to the Padres and a number of teams for one simple reason: he’s a very good hitter. In 138 games this past season the right fielder posted personal best offensive numbers en route to a .309/.362/.576 slash line (136 OPS+) with 34 home runs. Statcast metrics largely support the output, by virtue of how frequently Castellanos makes hard contact.

One knock on Castellanos over the years is that he’s been something of a free-swinger, waving and missing at balls outside the strike zone. Statcast numbers showed more of the same in that regard during 2021. Castellanos was able to mitigate concerns about being too much of a free-swinger in one notable respect, however, since he cut down his strikeout rate to a better-than-most 20.7%. The ability to be aggressive early in the count but avoid strikeouts is an asset that will likely give teams more confidence in the player than they had in him after a replacement-level 2020 showing.

The other well-documented knock against Castellanos has been his subpar defensive ratings over the years. Despite possessing above average speed, the outfielder continued the trend of uninspiring outfield play in 2021. Any NL team looking to add Castellanos’s bat to a lineup knows they’ll be taking a bit of a hit when he takes his glove out into the field.

Those documented shortcomings, as well as the obvious offensive upside, actually lend some traction to a Padres pursuit. San Diego is a team that clearly values contact skills— they were the 5th best team in baseball at avoiding strikeouts last season. As for the defensive side of things, San Diego (and several other NL teams) may be of the mindset that when the lockout subsides the DH will exist for all 30 teams. Stowing MLBTR’s 10th-ranked free agent at a DH spot, with occasional outfield reps, seems a perfectly reasonable move then for a team whose offense proved surprisingly middling last season. Even without the DH, it’s possible some outfield shuffling can take place to accommodate Castellanos now that incumbent left fielder Tommy Pham is a free agent.

Nick Castellanos Reportedly Seeking Seven- Or Eight-Year Deal

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10:08am: The Phillies have had recent talks with Castellanos, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. As he points out, Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was GM in Detroit when the Tigers selected Castellanos with the No. 44 overall draft pick.

7:36am: As a strong season for Nick Castellanos progressed in Cincinnati, it became increasingly obvious that the slugger would opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM on his contract in favor of a return to the free-agent market. Castellanos, however, is perhaps seeking an even larger payday than most would expect; MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that Castellanos and agent Scott Boras are eyeing a contract of seven or even eight years in length. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted this morning that the Marlins still have interest in Castellanos even after landing Avisail Garcia, though Feinsand suggests Castellanos’ asking price is too rich for Miami’s liking.

The 29-year-old Castellanos (30 in March) posted a huge .309/.362/.576 slash with 34 home runs, 38 doubles, a triple and three steals through 585 plate appearances this past season. Castellanos briefly missed time due to a microfracture in his wrist, but he shook off the rust almost immediately upon returning and closed out the year on a .294/.335/.606 heater through the final six weeks or so of play (176 plate appearances).

Excellent as Castellanos is and has been at the plate, seven and eight years are stills jarring numbers. Castellanos’ glovework has been consistently panned by defensive metrics — both at his original position (third base) and since moving to right field on a full-time basis in 2018. The 2021 season was no exception, as virtually any metric (-7 Defensive Runs Saved, -1.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, -7 Outs Above Average) framed Castellanos as a liability in right. He also rejected a qualifying offer from the Reds, meaning any team that signs him will be subject to draft-pick forfeiture.

To his credit, Castellanos is far from a one-year wonder — even if the 2021 season was his most productive to date. While a poor three-week finish in the shortened 2020 season tanked his season numbers, he still finished with league-average output, per both wRC+ and OPS+, and he’s been consistently strong at the dish outside that season. Both wRC+ and OPS+ suggest Castellanos has been about 22 percent better than the league-average hitter dating all the way back to 2016, and his bat truly soared to new heights upon being traded from the Tigers to Cubs. Even when including that average 2020 output, Castellanos carries a .292/.346/.571 batting line (134 wRC+) through 1052 plate appearances since leaving Detroit.

It’s commonplace for agents to aim for the moon in free agency, and while it can oftentimes burn a player, there are also deals of surprising magnitude each winter. (Few would’ve expected Marcus Semien to command a seven-year deal this winter, for instance.) It’d be a surprise to see Castellanos command such a weighty commitment, but he’s arguably the best bat available in free agency this offseason and would clearly benefit from the widely expected advent of the universal designated hitter.

Marlins In Market For Outfielders Even After Garcia Deal

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The Marlins aren’t 24 hours removed from agreeing to a four-year, $53MM contract with free-agent outfielder Avisail Garcia, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports they’re still seeking offensive upgrades (all Twitter links). Outfielders appear the priority, with Heyman listing Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Chris Taylor and Eddie Rosario among the possible targets.

Miami already guaranteed $53MM to Garcia over the next four seasons — a hefty splash by their typically modest standards. It’d be a surprise to see them follow that up by signing any of Castellanos, Schwarber or Taylor, as all three are expected to top that four-year deal landed by Garcia. Castellanos is reported to be seeking a contract of as many as seven or eight years in length, though it seems likely he’ll ultimately settle in a bit shy of that mark. Even still, there’s a good chance he’ll double the Garcia total.

Schwarber and Taylor, meanwhile, could both land larger four- or even five-year deals than Garcia signed. Schwarber parlayed a huge season between Washington and Boston into a strong free-agent stock, while Taylor has long been a steady super-utility piece for the Dodgers, He’d give Miami an option in center field for at least the first season or two of the deal — something they very much crave — and he’d give them some cover in the infield as well. That could be particularly appealing to Miami after the Marlins saw each of Miguel Rojas, Jazz Chisholm and Brian Anderson miss significant time in 2021.

Rosario, 30, seems like a more viable fit in Miami than the other names on the list — at least from a price perspective. The longtime Twins outfielder was non-tendered by Minnesota last winter, signed a one-year deal in Cleveland and found himself headed to the Braves in what amounted to a deadline salary dump. Rosario took off in Atlanta, however, returning from the injured list to slash .271/.330/.573 in his final 106 plate appearances. His heater continued into the postseason, where he won NLCS MVP honors. Even with a quiet World Series, Rosario still posted a massive .383/.456/.617 slash in 68 playoff plate appearances.

Streaky play of that nature has been the norm throughout Rosario’s career. In general, he’s a free-swinging left fielder with plenty of power but a low walk rates and dwindling defensive ratings. Dating back to the 2017 season, Rosario is a .278/.315/.484 hitter, but those numbers have tailed off in recent years. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating still peg Rosario as a decent left fielder, but not the standout defender he was in 2018. Statcast’s Outs Above Average, however, graded Rosario harshly and ranked him worst among all MLB outfielders (-18).

Both Castellanos and Taylor rejected qualifying offers, meaning they’d cost the Marlins their third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Schwarber and Rosario were ineligible to receive qualifying offers by virtue of being traded midseason (though only Schwarber would’ve commanded one).

Marlins Made “Strong” Push For Starling Marte

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The Marlins were in on Starling Marte right up until the centerfielder signed the four-year, $78MM deal to join the Mets, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The Marlins made a “strong” offer, but not one that matched the Mets’ financial commitment, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald (via Twitter). The Marlins weren’t the only team to be outbid by the Mets, who flexed their financial might to ink not only Marte, but Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).

Centerfield remains one of the Marlins’ biggest needs, though they may need to get creative now that Marte is off the board. Utility gem Chris Taylor is the only inspiring option remaining on the free agent board with significant experience manning center. The rest of the field consists of veteran names more likely to be seen as backups. This group includes Brett Gardner, Joc Pederson, Billy Hamilton, Ender Inciarte, Odubel Herrera, Jake Marisnick, Brian Goodwin, and a few others.

If the season began today, the Marlins would have Bryan De La Cruz, Lewis Brinson, and Monte Harrison as their primary options. De La Cruz, 24, would be Plan A after putting together a strong showing in the second half of 2021. The right-handed hitter slashed .296/.356/.427 in 219 plate appearances after being acquired from the Astros along with Austin Pruitt in exchange for reliever Yimi Garcia.

With De La Cruz proving at least capable of manning the middle, the Marlins are also exploring the addition of corner bats. Nick Castellanos is a name they like, despite his potentially chunky price tag, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). Castellanos’ big bat would certainly provide a much-needed boost to Miami’s lineup, though it would be a touch surprising to see the slugger end up in Miami, given the presumed price point for his services.

Early Qualifying Offer Decisions

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Fourteen players were issued the $18.4MM qualifying offer before the November 7 deadline. Those players have until November 17 to gauge interest on the open market before determining whether to accept or reject that proposal. For the majority of qualified free agents, it’ll be a fairly easy decision to reject the one-year offer and set out in search of a multi-year deal.

We’ll keep track of QO decisions as they’re reported in this post.

Rejected QO

Decision Not Yet Reported

Teams are entitled to 2022 draft pick compensation for qualified free agents who sign elsewhere, with the value of the pick dependent on the team’s economic status. Teams that exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021 (only believed to be the Dodgers among teams with qualified free agents this offseason) receive a pick after Round 4. Teams that neither exceeded the tax threshold nor received revenue sharing in 2021 (Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Giants, Mets, Red Sox) would receive a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B. Teams that received revenue sharing in 2021 (Reds and Rockies) would receive a draft choice after Round 1 if the qualified free agent signed for a guarantee of $50+MM. If the free agent signs for less than $50MM, that team would receive a draft choice after Competitive Balance Round B.

Last month, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes broke down the penalties each team would incur were they to sign a player who’d rejected a qualifying offer.

Free Agent Notes: Marte, Castellanos, Lorenzen, Canha

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Starling Marte is the clear top option in this winter’s free agent center field class. Unsurprisingly, early interest seems to be robust, as Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reports (Twitter links) that both the Marlins and Mets have expressed interest in the 33-year-old. Those NL East clubs join the Yankees and division-rival Phillies as known entrants in his market. There are no doubt other clubs who have or will express interest in Marte, who’s coming off a stellar .308/.381/.456 showing between Miami and the A’s.

Miami’s early interest is eyebrow-raising, since he and the Marlins couldn’t agree to terms during midseason extension negotiations this summer. Reports suggested the Fish balked at offering a fourth guaranteed year a few months back, and going to that length again figures to be necessary to land Marte’s services now that he can field offers from all 30 clubs. It’s not as if his stock tanked after the deal, as Marte continued to be an offensive force (.312/.355/.462 with 25 stolen bases in just 56 games) for Oakland down the stretch. MLBTR projects he’ll ultimately land a four-year deal worth $80MM, a figure that would come in quite a bit higher than the money Marte reportedly targeted in original extension talks.

The Mets, meanwhile, are still trying to finalize the structure of their front office. That could pose a challenge for them in making any impactful moves early in the winter, but whomever the Mets hire to lead baseball operations is expected to look for some form of outfield help. Michael Conforto has already rejected New York’s qualifying offer, and his potential departure would leave a vacancy in the grass in Flushing. A Marte pursuit would be one way to replace Conforto, with current center fielder Brandon Nimmo probably sliding over to right field were a deal to get done.

Some news on a few more free agents:

  • Nick Castellanos has already rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer, little more than a formality after he opted out of the remaining two years on his contract. The 29-year-old wouldn’t close the door on a return to Cincinnati, though, telling reporters (including Adam Baum of the Cincinnati Enquirer) he’d listen to any offers from the Reds. “Of course I would. Why wouldn’t I,” Castellanos asked rhetorically. “I feel like there’s still a lot of valuable pieces that are very good to win with. Jonathan India … Jesse Winker is coming into his own, figuring out who he is, figuring out what kind of father he wants to be, he’s doing a great job at that. Joey Votto just reinvented himself. We still have pitching. We have pieces. Why wouldn’t I entertain it?” Regardless of Castellanos’ amenability, a Reds’ return seems highly unlikely. Cincinnati has kicked off the offseason by parting ways with two veteran contributors (Tucker Barnhart and Wade Miley) for little more than financial relief, and general manager Nick Krall has spoken of “(aligning) our payroll to our resources.” It’d be nothing short of shocking if Cincinnati then pivoted to make a serious run at Castellanos, whom MLBTR projects to sign for $115MM over five years.
  • California natives Michael Lorenzen and Mark Canha are both drawing interest from teams on the West Coast, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). Interestingly, Murray hears that at least some teams are willing to consider Lorenzen as a starting pitcher, aligning with the 29-year-old’s hopes for a rotation job. Lorenzen broke into the majors as a starter, but he’s started just five of his 268 appearances with the Reds since the beginning of the 2016 campaign. He’s had success in a multi-inning relief capacity, though, and Lorenz’s five-pitch repertoire could help him navigate an order multiple times. Canha, who has spent his entire major league career with his hometown A’s, hits the open market on the heels of four straight above-average offensive seasons, by measure of wRC+. Entering his age-33 season, the productive outfielder will probably be limited to short-term deals, which could make him a target of low and high payroll clubs alike.

Marlins Notes: Avisail, Castellanos, Lopez, Hernandez, Blue Jays

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The Marlins are intent on adding offense, and are exploring both the free agent and trade routes to accomplish this goal.  On the open market, the Marlins have shown interest in Avisail Garcia (as per The Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson) and they have spoken with agent Scott Boras, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.  Boras represents any number of top hitters in this year’s free agent market, though Heyman observes that outfielder Nick Castellanos is from Miami, even if it’s “hard to see [the Marlins] affording him.”

Using MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list as reference, we have Castellanos pegged for a five-year, $115MM deal, not to mention the additional draft pick compensation the Marlins would need to surrender since Castellanos has rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer.  Garcia is projected for three years and $36MM, which much more realistic even for a Marlins team that has expressed a willingness to flex a bit more financial muscle this winter.  As it happens, our Garcia estimate is pretty close to the three-year, $30MM extension offer the Marlins floated at Starling Marte last summer, so that could give some hint as to what the team is prepared to spend.

Garcia is less expensive and is a better defender than Castellanos, though Castellanos has a more consistent track record as a hitter.  Garcia does happen to be coming off one of the best seasons of his career, after hitting .262/.330/.490 with a personal-best 29 homers in 515 PA with the Brewers.  While Garcia alone wouldn’t elevate Miami’s lineup, Heyman believes the Marlins could “acquire multiple hitters that cost somewhat less” than one big splashy acquisition like Castellanos.

The opportunity also exists for the Marlins to trade from their pitching surplus, and MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets that the Blue Jays are one of the teams who have been in touch with Miami.  Heyman identifies Pablo Lopez and Elieser Hernandez as the Marlins’ “most available arms,” likely in the context of Lopez and Hernandez being the type of big league-ready pitchers that would appeal to a win-now team like Toronto.

Since the Jays have a catching surplus and the Marlins have a need behind the plate, Alejandro Kirk seems like a logical trade possibility, Morosi opines.  Kirk may have the most trade value of any Blue Jays catcher besides star prospect Gabriel Moreno, and Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes that Moreno “appears extremely unlikely” to be dealt anywhere.  Toronto could also be a fit for the Marlins’ outfield needs, as Nicholson-Smith notes that the Jays have been getting a lot of interest in their catchers and outfielders at the GM Meetings.

14 Players Receive Qualifying Offers

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Today was the last day for teams to issue qualifying offers to eligible free agents, as teams had to make their decisions by 4pm CT.  With the deadline now behind us, here are the players who were issued the one-year, $18.4MM offers…

This is the highest number of qualifying offers issued since the 2015-16 offseason, when a record 20 players received the QOs.  Only six players received qualifying offers last winter, which was the lowest ever issued in an offseason, yet not really surprising given the pandemic’s impact on the 2020 season and league revenues.

These 14 players now have until November 17 to decide whether or not to accept the offer.  If they accept, they’ll receive $18.4MM next season, and can’t be traded until June 15, 2022.  They also won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips to free agency (players are also ineligible for the qualifying offer if they haven’t spent at least one full season with their current team).  Since the qualifying offer system was introduced in the 2012-13 offseason, 10 of the 96 players to receive a QO have taken the deal.

If a player rejects the qualifying offer, draft pick compensation is now attached to their market, unless they re-sign with their former team.  Teams who sign a QO free agent will have to surrender at least one draft pick, and potentially some international bonus pool money depending on their status as revenue-sharing recipients or whether or not they exceeded the luxury tax threshold.  (Here is the list of what every team would have to give up to sign a QO free agent.)

If a QO free agent signs elsewhere, that player’s former team receives a compensatory draft pick based on this criteria….

  • A draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B will be awarded if the team losing the free agent did not receive revenue sharing or if the free agent in question signed a contract worth less than $50MM in guaranteed money.
  • A draft pick after Round 1 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent received revenue sharing and the free agent in question signed for more than $50MM.
  • A draft pick after Round 4 will be awarded if the team losing the free agent paid luxury tax penalties in the preceding season.

As always, several factors are weighed by both teams and players about whether or not to issue or accept qualifying offers.  This winter provides yet another wrinkle — this could be the final year of the current qualifying offer system due to the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1.  It is widely expected that the owners could lock out the players if a new deal isn’t reached by that date.  In the event of a lockout, MLB would institute a roster freeze on all transactional business involving Major League players, thus bringing the free agent market to a halt.

With this deadline looming, it is possible we could see some QO recipients (those less certain of landing big multi-year contracts) choose to accept the one-year deal in order to guarantee themselves some financial and contractual security prior to a possible lockout.  By that same token, this could make teams warier about extending the qualifying offer to certain players due to a larger suspicion that they would accept…or perhaps a player’s willingness to accept could make a team more inclined to issue a QO to a so-called borderline case.

Reds Extend Qualifying Offer To Nick Castellanos

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The Reds have unsurprisingly extended a qualifying offer to free agent outfield Nick Castellanos. Given that Castellanos just recently chose to opt out of the final two years and $34MM remaining on his contract, it should be a foregone conclusion that Castellanos will reject the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer and enter free agency.

The sum total of the last couple days of decisions should lead to an interesting offseason saga for Castellanos. The last time he was a free agent, it required patience for the slugger to ultimately land a uniquely structured long-term deal with the Reds. The 29-year-old ultimately only spent two years with the Reds, the latter of which produced an All-Star campaign. Still, this time around, Castellanos will be entering his age-30 season, he has a qualifying offer attached, and the CBA is set to expire in December. The stars say it will be quite some time until Castellanos knows what uniform he will don in 2022.

At the base of it all, however, is a consistent right-handed power hitter coming off a .309/.362/.576 season with 34 home runs and 100 runs driven in. The gaudy offensive numbers amounted to a 3.3 rWAR season, the most robust of Castellanos’ career. He put up 4.2 WAR by Fangraphs’ measure, which was also a career high. In short, the bat plays.

Counterpoint: Castellanos continues to put up suspect defensive numbers. His glovework in right field merited -7 defensive runs saved and -1.5 UZR, numbers that are supported by the eye test and a longstanding reputation as a subpar defender. Now, the expectation is that there will be a universal designated hitter next season, and if that comes to pass, there should be a robust market for Castellanos. Until that’s put in ink, however, his defensive deficiencies may curtail the bidding for his services.

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