Latest On Brewers’ Infield Alignment
The departure of Willy Adames in free agency left the Brewers with a glaring hole at shortstop and multiple ways to address the issue. Given Milwaukee’s perennially low payroll, a costly acquisition to replace Adames felt every bit as unlikely as the team’s chances of retaining the former All-Star. Fellow infielders Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang are both shortstops who played different positions in deference to Adames last year; Ortiz at third base primarily and Turang at second base exclusively (save for one lone DH appearance).
While the final alignment will be contingent on health and spring performance, Brewers owner Mark Attanasio at least tipped his hand a bit with regard to his organization’s thinking. When asked about his lack of additions to the roster, Attanasio touted the young talent the Brewers have returning in 2025 and noted a desire to get prospect Tyler Black at third base, noting that Ortiz “can slide over” to shortstop (link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).
A move to shortstop would only be natural for Ortiz, who spent the bulk of his minor league career there. He only moved off the position due to the presence of Adames in Milwaukee. Lining up as the Brewers’ regular third baseman in 2024, Ortiz ranked as one of the top defensive infielders in the sport. Defensive Runs Saved (8) and Outs Above Average (11) both credited him with excellent totals at third base despite “only” logging about 82% of a season there. (Ortiz also played 10 games at shortstop and made six appearances at second base.)
Both Baseball America and FanGraphs labeled Ortiz a 70-grade defender (on the 20-80 scale) in his prospect days; MLB.com tabbed him with a 65 glove. Plus to elite defense was always expected from the 2019 fourth-rounder. So far, he’s made good on that billing. Ortiz also at least held his own at the plate, slashing .239/.329/.398 in 511 plate appearances — good for a 104 wRC+. He popped 11 homers, 25 doubles and six triples last year.
Turang could presumably handle shortstop as well, but it’s hard to displace a player who just took home a Platinum Glove for his superlative work at second base. The former No. 21 overall pick won his first of what will likely be many Gold Gloves in 2024 and was named the NL’s top overall defensive player as well. Defensive Runs Saved credited Turang with an outrageous mark of 22. Statcast wasn’t quite so over-the-moon but felt he was a clear plus, pegging him at 6 OAA.
A middle-infield tandem of Ortiz and Turang might be the best defensive pairing in all of baseball. That’ll be important, as the rest of the infield faces more questions about its glovework. Rhys Hoskins will be back for a second season after exercising a player option valued at $18MM. The Brewers still owe him that salary and a $4MM buyout on a 2026 mutual option. Hoskins has negative career marks at first base and struggled again in 2024 — his first season back from an ACL tear that cost him the 2023 campaign.
At the hot corner, it seems like the 24-year-old Black will get the opportunity to run with the position, though Dunn and trade acquisition Caleb Durbin could also factor in. Black is a bat-first prospect who’s hit at every minor league stop but has had a nomadic journey in pro ball with regard to his defensive home. He’s played third more than any other position but also has ample experience at second base, first base and in the outfield — including center.
The Brewers have tried playing Black all over the field, because the bat and the speed play even with a below-average arm and questionable footwork/instincts in the field. Black’s ultimate home might be at first base, but Hoskins has that locked down for now thanks to the aforementioned contract and salary. Black might push across the diamond in 2026, but there’s no everyday role for him at first right now. Hoskins can’t slide to DH full-time, as Christian Yelich will see a decent bit of time there.
Dunn and Durbin offer some interesting alternatives, but neither has Black’s upside at the plate. Dunn didn’t hit much in a 104-plate appearance debut last year, but he has a big track record in the upper minors. He’s been far more strikeout-prone than Black in the minors and generally lacks the hit tool and swing decisions Black boasts. Durbin, acquired in the Devin Williams/Nestor Cortes trade, has yet to make his MLB debut. He’s a contact, speed and OBP-oriented infielder who’s best suited at second base but has 660 professional innings at third base as well. Durbin’s bat-to-ball skills, plate discipline and speed are all strong, but he’s light on power and posted bottom-of-the-scale exit velocity and hard-hit numbers in Triple-A last year.
Rhys Hoskins Exercises Player Option With Brewers
First baseman/designated hitter Rhys Hoskins has triggered his player option for 2025. He’ll return to the Brewers next year on an $18MM salary instead of taking the $4MM buyout. The deal also has an $18MM mutual option for 2026 with another $4MM buyout. Adam McCalvy of MLB.com was among those to relay the news on X.
Hoskins, 32 in March, signed a two-year deal that guaranteed him $34MM last offseason. That contract, which came in the wake of a season lost to a torn ACL, allowed him to opt out after year one. The hope at the time, for all parties, was that Hoskins would return to form following that season-ending injury, giving the Brewers one year of middle-of-the-order production before marketing himself ahead of a more lucrative long-term deal. It didn’t play out that way, however, and Hoskins will now head back to Milwaukee in hopes of bolstering his output at the plate.
The 2024 season wasn’t necessarily a “bad” one for Hoskins, who still swatted 26 round-trippers and knocked in 82 runs. But Hoskins’ .214/.303/.419 slash was a far cry from the .242/.353/.492 slash he posted from 2017-22 with the Phillies. By measure of wRC+, Hoskins was 26% better than average at the plate during his time with the Phils. In Milwaukee, his offense clocked in two percent shy of average. For a defensively limited first baseman whose value is derived primarily from his bat, that understandably wasn’t a strong enough platform for Hoskins and agent Scott Boras to again test the market.
Hoskins’ season wasn’t without its positives. He actually got out to a nice start and hit quite well in the month of September as well. The interim three months, however, were engulfed by a prodigious slump. As of May 31, Hoskins was touting a .239/.342/.471 batting line that was generally in line with his career norms (129 wRC+). He hit .234/.355/.469 in his final 77 plate appearances in September as well. Those solid months bookended a disastrous summer that saw the longtime Phillies masher flail away at a a .198/.270/.383 pace, however.
If Hoskins is able to more consistently produce at his April/May/September levels in 2025, there’s still hope of landing another notable contract for him in free agency next offseason. While his strikeout rate spiked to a career-worst 28.8%, there were other encouraging signs in 2024. His 10.3% walk rate was lower than his excellent early-career levels but was right in line with his 2021-22 marks. His 41.9% hard-hit rate was a near-mirror image of his 42% career mark, and last year’s 12.7% barrel rate was higher than the 11.7% rate he carried into the year. He’ll aim to build upon those trends while cutting back on his mounting strikeout rate in the middle of Milwaukee’s lineup.
For the Brewers, this should come as no surprise. Hoskins wasn’t likely to top the net $14MM from which he’d be walking away on the open market. It’s still not an ideal allocation of their limited resources, however, so it’s at least feasible that Milwaukee looks for a trade partner over the winter. More likely, however, are trades of other veterans on notable salaries — Devin Williams (a free agent next winter) chief among them. As it stands, the Brewers’ projected 2025 payroll (including arbitration projections and the obvious decisions to exercise options on Freddy Peralta and Colin Rea) will already clock in higher than their 2024 payroll. There’ll be some wheeling-and-dealing by the Milwaukee front office, as is the case every offseason.
2024-25 Player Option/Opt-Out Preview: June Edition
We’re two months into the 2024 season, meaning more than a third of the schedule has already elapsed. While there are still plenty of games remaining, there are enough in the books to affect the market of the upcoming free agent class.
That’s particularly true for players who can opt out of their current contracts. Player ages are for the 2025 season.
- Cody Bellinger (29): Can opt out of final two years and $52.5MM on three-year guarantee
Bellinger didn’t find the $200MM+ offer he was seeking last winter. As with a few other high-profile Boras Corporation clients (more on them in a minute), he pivoted to a short-term deal that allowed him to return to free agency next winter. Bellinger is arguably out to the best start of the bunch and seems on track to head back to the open market. He can earn a salary of $27.5MM in 2025 or take a $2.5MM buyout. If he decides to stay with the Cubs, he’ll then get to choose between a $25MM salary for 2026 or a $5MM buyout.
The lefty-hitting center fielder has a .265/.325/.459 line with eight homers over 203 plate appearances. His 15.8% strikeout rate and 7.9% walk percentage are on par with last year’s levels. Bellinger is again succeeding despite a below-average 33.8% hard contact rate. He’s not performing at quite the same pace he did in 2023, but the overall profile remains the same: good contact skills with the ability to play center field and mediocre batted ball metrics.
It could set up another winter where Bellinger’s exit velocities are the subject of plenty of debate. Perhaps his camp will need to lower their asking price in the early stages of his free agency, but the initial decision to opt out would be a straightforward one if he continues at this pace. He’d still be fairly young for a free agent at 29. Now two seasons removed from his dismal 2021-22 production, he also wouldn’t be saddled with a qualifying offer. Bellinger received the QO last winter, so he cannot receive another in his career.
- Matt Chapman (32): Can opt out of final two years and $36MM on three-year guarantee
Chapman also settled for a short-term deal after a tough finish to the 2023 season. The defensive stalwart inked a three-year, $54MM contract with the Giants early in Spring Training. He has a $17MM player option for next season and an $18MM player option for the ’26 campaign if he doesn’t take the first opt-out. There’s a $1MM buyout on a mutual option for 2027 as well.
Over 60 games in San Francisco, he’s hitting .238/.307/.411 with eight home runs. That’s slightly better than average production in this season’s diminished run environment. By measure of wRC+, Chapman has been nine percentage points better than average at the plate — right in line with his usual level. He’s putting the ball in play more than he ever had before, but he’s sacrificing a few walks and some of his typically huge exit velocities to do so. While this would probably be enough for Chapman to head back to free agency in search of a three- or four-year deal, it’s not likely to result in the nine-figure contract that seemingly wasn’t on the table last offseason.
- Gerrit Cole (34): Can opt out of final four years and $144MM on nine-year guarantee; team can override by exercising a $36MM option for 2029 if Cole declines his end
As recently as a few months ago, this decision looked preordained. Cole, coming off a Cy Young win and probably the best pitcher in baseball, would trigger the opt-out — only for the Yankees to override it by exercising a $36MM option for 2029. Boras suggested as much in a chat with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in December.
His status has at least been somewhat complicated by elbow inflammation that arose during Spring Training. Cole has spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list; he’ll begin a minor league rehab stint tonight. If he looks like his typical self in the second half, this’ll probably be an easy call for Cole and the Yankees alike. If he struggles or, more worryingly, battles any other elbow concerns, he’d need to more seriously consider hanging onto the final four years and $144MM on his record free agent deal.
- Nathan Eovaldi (35): Conditional $20MM option if Eovaldi reaches 156 innings pitched or based on Cy Young/All-Star results
Eovaldi’s $34MM deal with the Rangers contained a conditional option for 2025 that went into effect if he threw at least 300 innings in the first two seasons. He logged 144 frames a year ago, meaning he needed 156 this season. Eovaldi lost three weeks to a groin strain. He has made nine starts and thrown 50 innings so far, leaving him 106 shy of the vesting threshold. With another 18-20 turns through the rotation, it’s still doable, but any other injuries would essentially rule it out.
He could also kick in the option with a top-five finish in Cy Young balloting or a top seven Cy Young finish and an All-Star selection. While he’s pitching very well, the Cy Young provision only comes into play if he falls short of 156 innings. Placing that high without reaching 156 frames is a tall task.
Even if he were to vest the option, Eovaldi may well prefer to head back to free agency in search of a multi-year deal. While he’ll be 35, he still looks the part of an upper mid-rotation starter. Eovaldi has followed up a 3.63 ERA during his first season in Arlington with a 2.70 mark to this point. His fastball is sitting around 96 MPH and he has punched out more than 26% of opposing hitters with a ground-ball rate north of 50%. There’ll always be lingering durability questions given his age and two previous Tommy John surgeries, yet on talent, Eovaldi is one of the better pitchers who could be available.
- Wilmer Flores (33): $3.5MM player option; team can override by exercising an $8.5MM option if Flores declines his end
In September 2022, the Giants signed Flores to a $16.5MM extension. He has a $3.5MM option for next season; if he declines, the Giants could keep him around by picking up an $8.5MM salary. Flores had arguably the best year of his career in 2023, drilling a personal-high 23 homers with a .284/.355/.509 slash line. The pendulum has swung in the opposite direction this season. He has only one longball with a .207/.276/.283 mark in 163 trips to the plate. Flores’ strikeout and walk profile haven’t changed, but his contact quality has plummeted.
A full season of replacement level production would make it likely that Flores takes the $3.5MM salary. There’s still time for him to find his power stroke, though.
- Lucas Giolito (30): $19MM player option
Giolito is likely to take a $19MM salary from the Red Sox next year. The typically durable right-hander suffered a UCL injury during his second Spring Training appearance with Boston. He underwent an internal brace procedure and will miss the entire season. While he could be ready for the start of next season, he’d be hard-pressed to match a $19MM salary coming off the elbow procedure.
Opting in would trigger a conditional team/mutual option for the 2026 season, though. If Giolito doesn’t top 140 innings next year, the Sox would have a $14MM option (with a $1.5MM buyout) for ’26. Giolito would convert that to a $19MM mutual option by reaching the 140-inning plateau.
- Mitch Haniger (34): Can opt out of final year and $15.5MM on three-year guarantee
The Giants signed Haniger to a three-year, $43.5MM free agent deal two winters back. That allowed him to opt out of the final season’s $15.5MM salary. Haniger’s time in the Bay Area was a disappointment. A broken arm limited him to 61 games and he didn’t hit well when healthy. San Francisco dealt him back to the Mariners last offseason in a change-of-scenery swap involving Robbie Ray and Anthony DeSclafani.
Haniger is the only member of that trio who has played in 2024. (Ray is still recovering from Tommy John surgery, while DeSclafani was flipped to the Twins and ultimately required elbow surgery himself.) The veteran outfielder hasn’t hit in his return to the Pacific Northwest. He carries a .221/.282/.349 line with six homers and a strikeout rate approaching 28% in 213 plate appearances. He’s trending towards sticking around.
- Rhys Hoskins (32): Can opt out of final year and $18MM on two-year guarantee
Hoskins inked a two-year, $34MM deal with the Brewers after losing all of 2023 to an ACL tear. He landed in a favorable hitting environment in Milwaukee with a chance to prove he was back to his typical offensive form. Hoskins has done just that over the season’s first two months, connecting on 10 homers with a .243/.345/.486 line through 168 trips. He’s well on his way to opting out and would be one of the top offensive players in next year’s free agent class. The Brewers could make him a qualifying offer.
- Clayton Kershaw (37): $5MM+ player option
The Dodgers brought back the future Hall of Famer, who is rehabbing from an offseason shoulder procedure. His deal contains a 2025 player option with a $5MM base value and significant escalators. It’d jump to $7MM if he makes six starts this season, $3MM apiece for each of his seventh through ninth start, and another $4MM if he starts 10 games. Performance bonuses could push his 2025 salary as high as $25MM.
It’s likely Kershaw will exercise the option regardless of where the specific value winds up. He has been throwing but has yet to begin a rehab stint. A return relatively early in the season’s second half — which would give him a chance to get to 10 starts — is still in play.
- Sean Manaea (33): $13.5MM player option
Manaea opted out of a $12.5MM salary last winter and landed a two-year, $28MM pact from the Mets. He’s been a rare bright spot in a dismal season in Queens. Over 11 starts, the southpaw has tossed 57 innings of 3.63 ERA ball. He has a solid 23.2% strikeout rate behind an 11.2% swinging strike percentage. Manaea’s 9.9% walk rate is a personal high, but he’s looked the part of a decent mid-rotation starter.
If he continues at this pace, he’d likely forego next year’s $13.5MM salary and hit the market for a third straight winter. Manaea will be heading into his age-33 campaign and could look for a two- or three-year pact (potentially the final multi-year deal of his career). Even if wouldn’t dramatically improve on his annual salary, pitchers like Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha have gotten multi-year deals in their mid-30s for mid-rotation work.
- Nick Martinez (34): $12MM player option
Cincinnati guaranteed Martinez $26MM over two seasons — $14MM this year with a $12MM option for 2025. That investment made it appear the Reds would give him an extended look in the rotation. They’ve instead kept him in the swing role which he played for most of his time with the Padres. Martinez has started five of 13 games, posting a 4.20 ERA across 49 1/3 innings. He has a microscopic 0.76 ERA from the bullpen but has been rocked for a 7.36 mark out of the rotation.
On the surface, Martinez’s production doesn’t seem all that eye-catching. It’s not too dissimilar to Manaea’s work in a swing role with the Giants in 2023, though. Manaea turned in a 4.44 ERA while starting 10 of 37 games with San Francisco. He declined a $12.5MM player option and found a multi-year deal with a team willing to give him a rotation spot. Martinez (like Manaea, a Boras Corp. client) has opted out of multi-year commitments from San Diego in each of the last two offseasons. He’d probably do the same next winter if his performance doesn’t dramatically turn.
- Jordan Montgomery (32): Conditional $20MM option if Montgomery reaches 10 starts
Montgomery agreed to terms with the Diamondbacks just days before the start of the regular season. He landed a $25MM salary for this year and a conditional player option for 2025. The condition — making 10 MLB starts — would only not come into play if the southpaw suffered a significant injury. Montgomery is already two starts away from vesting the option. Its value would escalate to $25MM if he gets to 23 starts.
The 31-year-old certainly anticipated declining that option and trying his hand again in free agency. He’s been hit hard through his first eight starts in the desert, though. Montgomery has been tagged for a 5.48 earned run average across 44 1/3 innings. While he’s still showing good control, his strikeout rate has plummeted seven points to a poor 14.4% rate. His four-seam and sinker are each averaging less than 92 MPH after sitting around 93.5 MPH last season. Perhaps Montgomery is still shaking off rust related to his delayed start to the year, yet his early performance could make the option decision tougher than he expected.
- Emilio Pagán (34): $8MM player option ($250K buyout)
The Reds signed Pagán to a two-year, $16MM contract with the ability to collect a $250K buyout in lieu of an $8MM salary next season. It was an odd fit considering Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home park and Pagán’s longstanding trouble with the longball. His first 21 appearances as a Red have been fine. He owns a 4.19 ERA across 19 1/3 innings. The righty has a customarily strong 30.5% strikeout rate against an 8.5% walk percentage. He has surrendered four homers.
Pagán, who is currently on the 15-day injured list with triceps tightness, has performed about as the Reds probably anticipated. This one can still go either way, but an $8MM salary for his age-34 season feels about right for his market value.
- Wandy Peralta (33): Can opt out of final three years and $12.65MM on four-year guarantee
The Padres surprisingly signed Peralta to a four-year deal as a means of reducing the contract’s luxury tax hit. The veteran southpaw has been effective, turning in a 2.66 ERA across 23 2/3 innings. Peralta doesn’t miss many bats, but he’s an excellent ground-ball specialist (55.6% this season, 53.1% for his career). Even though he’s pitching well, it’d be somewhat surprising to see him walk away from another three years and almost $13MM covering his age 33-35 seasons.
- Robbie Ray (33): Can opt out of final two years and $50MM on five-year guarantee
Ray’s five-year, $115MM contract with the Mariners allowed him to bypass the final two seasons valued at $25MM annually. Ray had a solid, if not overwhelming, first season in Seattle. His elbow gave out after one start in year two. Ray underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The Mariners offloaded the final three years of his contract in the Haniger trade with the Giants.
The former AL Cy Young winner is targeting a return around the All-Star Break. He has been throwing from a mound and could head on a rehab stint in the coming days. Odds are against an opt-out right now, but a dominant second half could change the calculus.
- Hunter Renfroe (33): $7.5MM player option ($1MM buyout)
The Royals signed Renfroe to a surprisingly strong two-year, $13MM deal. The righty-hitting outfielder was coming off a middling .233/.297/.416 showing between the Angels and Reds a year ago. He has had a very rough start to his Kansas City tenure, hitting .178/.256/.309 with only four homers in 168 plate appearances. It’d take a major reversal in the season’s final few months for him to forego a $7.5MM salary.
- Blake Snell (32): $30MM player option
The Giants jumped in late on Chapman and even later to grab the defending NL Cy Young winner. Snell signed a two-year, $62MM guarantee two weeks before Opening Day. The hope for everyone involved was that he’d collect the first $32MM and pitch well enough to pass on next season’s $30MM option.
Snell’s first two months in the Bay Area couldn’t have gone much worse. He has battled groin issues throughout the season. Snell lost around a month with an adductor (groin) strain between April and May. He went back on the 15-day IL last night. He has taken the ball six times and been rocked for a 9.51 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. Needless to say, he’ll need a much better final four months to go back to free agency.
- Chris Stratton (34): $4.5MM player option ($500K buyout)
The Renfroe deal wasn’t the only surprising two-year pact with an opt-out that the Royals signed last winter. They signed Stratton, a generally solid middle reliever, to an $8MM deal containing a $4.5MM option for next season. The right-hander was coming off a 3.92 ERA performance across 82 2/3 innings out of the St. Louis and Texas bullpens.
He hasn’t been as effective for the Royals, allowing 5.76 earned runs per nine through 25 frames. Stratton’s strikeout rate is down a few points to 21.7%, but the much bigger issue is an uncharacteristic inability to find the zone. He has walked almost 16% of batters faced, more than doubling last season’s rate.
- Justin Verlander (42): Conditional $35MM option if Verlander reaches 140 innings pitched
Verlander would unlock a $35MM player option if he throws 140 innings this season. While he was delayed to start the year by shoulder discomfort, he has logged 52 innings in nine starts since his return. Barring another injury, he’ll throw more than 88 innings over the season’s final four months.
At 41, Verlander is still pitching well — a 3.63 ERA with a 22.2% strikeout rate — but he’s not operating at Cy Young form. If he continues at this pace all season, matching a $35MM salary on the open market is unlikely. Verlander seems comfortable in Houston and would probably prefer to stick with the Astros, though that may depend on whether the team plays better before the deadline. Verlander approved a trade from the Mets back to Houston last summer when it became clear that New York wasn’t going to be a legitimate World Series contender during his contract. At 27-34, the Astros need to turn things around quickly to put themselves in position for an eighth straight trip to the ALCS.
- Michael Wacha (33): $16MM player option
Wacha landed in Kansas City on a two-year commitment with matching $16MM salaries and the opportunity to head back to free agency after year one. The veteran righty is pitching well enough to make that a consideration. He owns a 4.24 ERA across 12 starts and 68 innings. That’s a run higher than his ERA of the past two seasons, but the general profile remains the same.
He throws strikes with slightly below-average whiff rates. He has thrown between 120-140 innings in each of the last three seasons and looks on his way to matching or surpassing that in 2024. Opting out in search of another two-year deal in the $30MM range is plausible.
Brewers Place Rhys Hoskins On Injured List
9:33pm: Hoskins will miss between two and four weeks, manager Pat Murphy tells reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel).
5:45pm: The Brewers announced today that first baseman Rhys Hoskins has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a strained right hamstring. Infielder/outfielder Owen Miller was recalled from Triple-A Nashville in a corresponding move.
Hoskins departed yesterday’s game early after tweaking his hamstring. He was set to go for an MRI today and it appears that the strain was discovered and that Hoskins will need to miss some time, though it’s still not publicly known how severe the strain is nor how long the club expects him to be out of action.
Regardless, it’s an unfortunate development for the Brewers. Although Hoskins missed all of 2023 due to a torn ACL, he has bounced right back to his old self this year. He’s hit nine home runs and is drawing walks at an 11.5% rate so far this year. His .233/.340/.474 batting line translates to a 131 wRC+, right in line with his career slash of .242/.353/.491 and 126 wRC+.
Losing that kind of production will obviously hurt the Milwaukee offense. Hoskins and Jake Bauers have been splitting the first base and designated hitter duties, though with Bauers almost never facing lefties. Of his 92 plate appearances this year, only four of them have been against southpaws.
Perhaps the right-handed hitting Gary Sánchez will cover first base a bit more to continue shielding Bauers from lefties. Sánchez had just four innings of first base experience coming into this year but has already logged 12 2/3 innings there in 2024. Miller is also capable of playing some first base but he has reverse splits in his career. Tyler Black was up with the club for a while but has since been optioned and is a lefty hitter anyway.
Bauers is having a nice season, despite a 35.9% strikeout rate. He has four home runs and is hitting .244/.326/.476 for a 127 wRC+. Perhaps the club will be open to giving him more of a chance against lefties but he has a line of .211/.278/.340 against them in his career thus far.
Dombrowski On Phillies’ Offseason, Wheeler, Rojas, Painter
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski joined the 94 WIP Morning show with Joe DeCamara and Jon Ritchie on Wednesday, touching on a broad-reaching number of Phillies topics (Audacy link to the entire 20-minute interview). It’s a good listen for fans of any club — Phils fans in particular, of course — wherein Philadelphia’s top decision-maker discusses his team’s relatively quiet offseason, the state of the rotation and the outfield, Zack Wheeler‘s future with the club, top prospect Andrew Painter‘s health and quite a bit more.
Among the more notable takeaways was Dombrowski’s reply when asked a potential late move for one of the remaining big-name starters on the board. Dombrowski didn’t comment on either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery by name but expressed that he’s content with the club’s rotation. As far back as early November, Dombrowski touted fifth starter Cristopher Sanchez as someone the team believes can be a big regular in the rotation, and his comments today mesh with that line of thinking. Dombrowski didn’t expressly rule out the addition of another starter but implied that the team wasn’t about to pay market rate for one of the remaining names out there.
“I can’t tell you that somebody doesn’t fall into your lap at some point where you say, ‘Gee, that’s an opportunity we can’t turn down,'” Dombrowski said. That suggests a willingness to remain open-minded to some late, unexpected drops in price but doesn’t sound like a portent for an aggressive pursuit of a top-tier free agent.
That said, there was at least one name the Phillies considered worthy of an exception: Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It’s already been reported that the Phillies were a legitimate suitor for the 25-year-old NPB ace before he signed a record deal with the Dodgers, and Dombrowski now confirms that his team was “very involved” in Yamamoto’s market. The veteran baseball ops leader went so far as to say that others might be “shocked” to learn how much money the Phillies ultimately offered — naturally, he declined to specify — before indicating that Yamamoto simply had a preference to be a Dodger. The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber reported last week that the Phils also made a 12-year offer, although it’s unclear if they were willing to match the $325MM guarantee which Yamamoto received from Los Angeles.
Obviously, any multi-year addition to the rotation could provide the Phillies with some insurance in the event that Wheeler departs as a free agent at season’s end. But Dombrowski called Wheeler “one of the best pitchers in baseball” and stressed that it’s “important” and a “priority” for the Phillies find a way to re-sign the right-hander.
Wheeler, 34 in May, has outperformed the five-year, $118MM contract he signed with the Phillies in the 2019-20 offseason. He’s garnered Cy Young consideration in three of his four Phillies seasons, highlighted by a second-place finish in 2021 and a sixth-place finish in 2023.
Over the past four seasons, he’s tied with Corbin Burnes for the fourth-most innings in Major League Baseball and leads MLB in FanGraphs’ wins above replacement. He’s notched a tidy 3.06 ERA despite typically playing in front of one of the game’s weakest defenses, thanks in large part to a sharp 26.7% strikeout rate and excellent 5.3% walk rate. A new contract for Wheeler would begin with his age-35 season, which caps his earning potential to an extent, but recent history has shown teams are willing to pay elite arms even at the late stages of their careers.
A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker highlights some recent examples of age-35 (or older) pitchers cashing in. Jacob deGrom signed a five-year deal with a $37MM annual value, while Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander both inked multi-year deals at a $43.333MM AAV. The AAV on Yu Darvish‘s extension, beginning in his age-37 season, is just $18MM — but that was a function of the Padres drawing out the term in order to drive down the annual salary for luxury-tax purposes. Darvish still secured a $90MM guarantee on that frontloaded deal and was two years older than Wheeler will be in year one of a theoretical free agent pact or extension. Suffice it to say, Wheeler will be the relatively rare big leaguer who has a chance at multiple nine-figure contracts in his career.
On the point of the team’s defense, Dombrowski cited that as a primary reason the team has not pursued additional outfield help with much aggression this spring. Young Johan Rojas dazzled with his defensive ratings (+15 Defensive Runs Saved, +6 Outs Above Average) in just 392 innings of center field work. Asked if Rojas will be the team’s primary center fielder this season, Dombrowski all but anointed the 23-year-old.
“Likely? Yes,” Dombrowski replied. “Definitively? No. We saw enough the last couple months in August and September that we liked what we saw. I’ve talked to our hitting people at length about his progress over the winter time. He’s worked extremely hard. He’s made adjustments that he needs to make. I’m not saying he’s going to come up and hit .300 with 20 home runs off the bat, but I think he can do enough offensively and contribute from an offensive perspective. And when you add his speed and his defense, all of a sudden he becomes a real plus for us. So yes, I do think he’ll be up, but he has to earn that, too. We’re not just going to give it to him.”
Even as he made those caveats, Dombrowski also spoke of the team’s desire to get Kyle Schwarber more time at designated hitter and to keep Bryce Harper at first base as a means of improving the defense (as opposed to the alternative scenario where Schwarber plays left field and Rhys Hoskins were re-signed to split time between DH and first base). Rojas’ bat looked impressive during his brief regular-season look, as he hit .302/.342/.430 in 164 plate appearances, but that was buoyed by an unsustainable .410 average on balls in play. His bat went ice cold in the playoffs, too, as Rojas fell into a woeful 4-for-43 swoon and struck out in a third of his plate appearances.
Despite the postseason struggles, it appears Rojas will have first crack at the regular center field job. The Phillies are generally thin in terms of outfield depth, and this afternoon’s DFA of Simon Muzziotti could add to that if he’s traded or claimed by another club. There’s perhaps the chance that the Phils could add a bench bat to the mix, and outfield would be a natural spot, given the lackluster offensive contributions of Jake Cave and limited track record of Cristian Pache.
Dombrowski acknowledged the possibility of adding a bench bat, simply noting “that might end up happening,” but he didn’t characterize it as a major item that’s yet to be checked off the to-do list. Speaking in general terms, the Phillies’ president again implied that between wanting to give Rojas a real chance and the veteran nature of much of his roster, free agents have seen greater opportunity for playing time with other clubs thus far. There’s still quite a few names yet unsigned, so it stands to reason that the Phils could eventually find a bargain addition to deepen the mix. Pache, Cave and utility infielder Edmundo Sosa are all out of options, however, so adding a player to the bench mix would likely mean jettisoning someone like Cave, who’s already agreed to a $1MM salary for the 2024 season. That isn’t likely to be a major roadblock to any further additions, but it’ll factor into the calculus all the same.
The Phillies will effectively return the same bullpen in 2024, though again, Dombrowski indicated it’s not necessarily for lack of trying. He noted that the team has been in on at least “a couple” of notable names but that one, in particular, took an opportunity to be a starting pitcher elsewhere. Another simply preferred to be closer to his home on the west coast. Again, Dombrowski didn’t mention names, though Jordan Hicks and Reynaldo Lopez stand out as two bullpen arms who surprisingly landed rotation opportunities in free agency (Hicks in San Francisco, Lopez in Atlanta). Hicks, in particular, was rumored to be on the Phillies’ radar as a free agent.
Starting pitching depth, too, has been a recent area the Phillies have been searching. They signed former Braves first-rounder Kolby Allard to a split big league deal last month due in no small part to the fact that he has a minor league option remaining. That same line of thinking surely influenced today’s claim of righty Max Castillo from the Red Sox.
The Phillies have top prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry working through the minor league system, and while both could make their debuts in 2024, neither has yet pitched even five innings above the Double-A level. Painter was a rotation candidate early last season but wound up going down with an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John surgery. Dombrowski said in this morning’s interview that Painter has begun “tossing” a ball recently and is on schedule but that the organization is “looking toward 2025” with regard to the prized righty and isn’t planning on him pitching in games this season. There’s always the possibility his recovery progresses more quickly than expected, but the 20-year-old right-hander doesn’t appear to be someone the Phillies are banking on for even a late-season cameo.
MLBTR Podcast: The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The trade sending Jorge Polanco from the Twins to the Mariners (1:10)
- The Brewers sign Rhys Hoskins (8:25)
- The Diamondbacks sign Joc Pederson while the Blue Jays sign Justin Turner (12:05)
- The Tigers sign prospect Colt Keith to an extension (20:30)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Is Cody Bellinger unsigned because of his asking price? Will the Cubs sign him or do they not want to block their outfield prospect? (27:35)
- Should the Mariners sign Blake Snell? Will they? Can they? (31:40)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Broadcasting Landscape, Josh Hader and the Relief Market – listen here
- The Cubs’ Activity, Marcus Stroman And Jordan Hicks – listen here
- Teoscar Hernández Signs With L.A. And The Move-Making Mariners and Rays – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Latest On Giants’ Offseason Targets
The Giants’ offseason hasn’t necessarily been inactive, but it also hardly hasn’t played out as many fans would’ve expected when president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi kicked off the winter by stating a need to think differently, specifically with regard to the team’s roster construction.
The Giants made one big splash with their December signing of star KBO outfielder Jung Hoo Lee on a six-year deal, but the rest of their additions have been smaller scale in nature. Jordan Hicks, the hardest-throwing reliever on the market, was signed to a four-year deal. The Giants, despite having just one dependable source of innings (ace Logan Webb), plan to stretch the oft-injured Hicks out as a starter. Last year’s 65 2/3 innings were his most since a career-high 77 2/3 frames as a rookie in 2018. San Francisco also added backup catcher Tom Murphy on a two-year deal and acquired former AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray (who’s rehabbing from Tommy John surgery) in a trade with the Mariners that dumped the contracts of Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani.
That’s a fair bit of activity, but the Giants are still teeming with questions about the composition of both the lineup and the rotation. It doesn’t appear they consider their offense to be a finished product, however. San Francisco made a “late run” at Rhys Hoskins before he signed with the Brewers, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle hears the same but cautions that their offer “wasn’t close” to the two-year, $34MM deal Hoskins inked in Milwaukee. That pact also contains an opt-out provision following the 2024 season.
While the Giants have given opt-out clauses perhaps more regularly than any other team in MLB in recent years — e.g. Haniger, Carlos Rodon, Michael Conforto, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling — Slusser reports that the team is trying to move away from that contract mold. (Lee’s deal also contains an opt-out, though that comes after four years as opposed to the short-term nature of the others just listed.) Whether it was the lack of an opt-out or reluctance to match the years/dollars on the deal, Hoskins preferred the Brewers’ offer and will spend at least the 2024 season in Milwaukee.
The Giants may have missed on Hoskins — an all too familiar refrain for their fans — but mere interest in the longtime Phillies slugger shows that the Giants remain interested in the possibility of adding a bat to the lineup at either first base or designated hitter. The market still offers quite a few options at both positions. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco ran through some of the top unsigned first basemen earlier today (including old friend Brandon Belt), while DH types still on the market include Justin Turner, J.D. Martinez and Jorge Soler. Last year’s primary designated hitter, Joc Pederson, agreed to a one-year deal with the division-rival Diamondbacks just yesterday.
That said, Slusser also writes that third baseman Matt Chapman remains the Giants’ “top position-player target.” The 30-year-old, two-time Platinum Glove winner has ties to multiple Giants higher-ups; he was drafted by the Athletics when Zaidi was still an assistant GM in Oakland, and new Giants skipper Bob Melvin is obviously quite familiar with Chapman after managing him for the first five seasons of the third baseman’s career with the A’s. Zaidi has been focused on upgrading the team’s defense in addition to deepening his lineup, and Chapman could potentially check both boxes — particularly if he’s able to bounce back from the finger injury he sustained in the weight room in early August, which surely contributed to a disastrous finish at the plate (.183/.259/.318 over his final 139 plate appearances).
There’s still a fair bit of offseason left, but San Francisco’s options — particularly on the free agent market — have dwindled while quite a few needs remain unaddressed. The club hasn’t meaningfully upgraded its power production or added any stable innings behind Webb. The rotation behind the Cy Young runner-up is currently a hodgepodge of swingman Ross Stripling, top prospect Kyle Harrison, 26-year-old Keaton Winn (42 1/3 career innings) and the aforementioned Hicks, who’s made all of eight starts in his MLB career. Alex Cobb should be back in the first half, and Ray could return after the All-Star break, but the Giants have spent more than $165MM in free agency so far and the roster doesn’t look definitively better than it did in 2023 when they lost 83 games.
Brewers Sign Rhys Hoskins
January 26: The Associated Press relays the full contract breakdown. Hoskins will make $12MM this year and will be slated for a salary of $18MM in 2025. If he decides to opt out after 2024, he will get a $4MM buyout. The mutual option for 2026 is valued at $18MM and there’s a $4MM buyout on that as well.
January 23: The Brewers announced they have signed free agent first baseman Rhys Hoskins to a two-year deal with an opt-out after 2024 and a mutual option for 2026. It is reportedly a $34MM guarantee for the client of the Boras Corporation.
Hoskins takes a modified pillow contract after missing the entire 2023 season. At the tail end of Spring Training, he tore the ACL in his left knee while retreating to the outfield grass to field a chopper. While he was able to take batting practice by the end of the season, he never quite made it back to the roster. Philadelphia suggested Hoskins may have been activated from the injured list had they advanced to the World Series.
With the Phils coming up a game short of the Fall Classic, the ACL tear marked an unfortunate end to a productive tenure at Citizens Bank Park. Hoskins seemed a potential candidate for the qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason. The Phils opted against the QO, declaring they were moving Bryce Harper to first base permanently. That made clear Hoskins was headed elsewhere after nearly a decade in the organization.
The Phillies initially selected him in the fifth round of the 2014 draft. Despite the modest draft stock, he hit the ground running in pro ball. He posted huge minor league numbers, mashing his way to the big leagues in the second half of the 2017 campaign.
That excellent production on the farm presaged strong numbers against MLB pitching. Hoskins raked at a .259/.396/.618 clip with 18 home runs over his first 50 games. While he didn’t maintain that pace over any subsequent season, he has been a consistent middle-of-the-lineup presence in Philadelphia.
Hoskins hit between 27 and 34 home runs in his four full seasons between 2018-22. He was on a similar pace in the shortened season, connecting on 10 longballs in 41 games. He has paired that with a walk rate above 10% in every year of his career. That power and patience gives him a solid offensive floor, even if he hasn’t hit above .250 in any season since his rookie year.
Since 2018, Hoskins has posted a .241/.350/.483 batting line. He strikes out in roughly a quarter of his plate appearances. That’s slightly higher than the league average but hardly outlandish, particularly for a player who hits for the kind of power he does. Hoskins has destroyed left-handed pitching at a .250/.399/.522 clip in his career. His .240/.336/.482 slash versus same-handed arms isn’t quite as impressive but remains solidly above average.
The offense carries the overall profile. Hoskins doesn’t offer much as a baserunner. He has graded as a slightly below-average defender throughout his career. It’s unlikely his defense will improve as he’s into his 30s and working back from a significant knee injury.
That’s fine for the Brewers, who needed an offensive upgrade. Milwaukee ranked 17th in runs last season, a subpar figure for a team that plays its home games at hitter-friendly American Family Field. By measure of wRC+, which adjusts for park, Milwaukee ranked 24th in overall hitting production. That was the worst of any playoff team.
First base was particularly problematic. Milwaukee received a dismal .231/.292/.389 showing from the bat-first position. That led the Brew Crew to non-tender Rowdy Tellez. Milwaukee acquired Carlos Santana at the deadline to stabilize first base for the stretch run. The Brewers have remained in contact with Santana this winter, but they’ll instead jump on the opportunity for a more significant lineup upgrade.
The contract aligns with MLBTR’s prediction of two years and $36MM. A few priority rebound targets have landed a two-year guarantee with an opt-out in recent offseasons. That’s appealing for the player, who locks in more security than they’d have received on a straight one-year pact while still allowing them to get back to free agency after one season.
Hoskins’ deal nearly matches the two-year, $36MM pact which Michael Conforto signed with the Giants last winter after missing the ’22 season rehabbing from shoulder surgery. Players like Josh Bell (two years, $33MM) and Lucas Giolito (two years, $38.5MM) have signed similar pacts after terrible finishes to their respective platform seasons. This contract structure isn’t attainable for every bounceback candidate, but it’s one that higher-ceiling free agents of that ilk are increasingly able to secure.
The specific salary structure hasn’t been reported. If the deal guarantees Hoskins $17MM in each season, it’d push Milwaukee’s payroll projection around $122MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s marginally above last year’s $119MM Opening Day mark. Milwaukee’s payroll slate remains manageable even with Hoskins joining Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames (each of whom will make more than $12MM in their final arbitration seasons) on the books.
If Hoskins picks up where he left off before the injury, he’d likely join Burnes and Adames on next year’s free agent market. As with Burnes and Adames, Hoskins would be a candidate for a qualifying offer if he exercises the opt-out. He remains eligible for the QO since Philadelphia opted against the offer this winter. Milwaukee doesn’t have to forfeit any draft picks to add him.
Pete Alonso, Paul Goldschmidt and Christian Walker could all join Hoskins in an interesting first base class next winter. The remaining options for teams this offseason isn’t as robust. Beyond outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger, the top first basemen still unsigned are Brandon Belt, Santana, Garrett Cooper and Joey Votto.
Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two parties were closing in on a two-year, $34MM deal with an opt-out next winter (X link). Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that they’d finalized the agreement.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Designated Hitter Possibilities For Diamondbacks
The defending National League champions were among the most aggressive teams early in the offseason. They acquired Eugenio Suárez to address third base and fortified the rotation via a four-year, $80MM contract with Eduardo Rodríguez. Just before Christmas, they reunited with left fielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. on a three-year, $42MM guarantee.
Arizona hasn’t made a major league addition since finalizing their new contract with Gurriel a month ago. They’re not done, however. GM Mike Hazen has said a few times the Snakes are looking for a hitter they can plug in at the DH spot. He reiterated that in a chat with Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic not long after the new year, suggesting at the time they felt they were likelier to add another bat in free agency than through trade. While Arizona was focused primarily on right-handed hitters early in the winter, their deals with Suárez and Gurriel have balanced the lineup. Hazen indicated they’re considering DH options of either handedness at this point.
A few of their reported targets remain on the market. Some potential fits:
Right-Handed Free Agents
- J.D. Martinez: Martinez, who mashed in a two-month stint for Arizona at the end of the 2017 season, remains one of the more productive hitters in the majors. He’s coming off perhaps his best year since 2019. He blasted 33 home runs in only 479 plate appearances for the Dodgers a season ago. His .271/.321/.572 batting line was stellar and he turned in his highest hard contact rate (54.8%) of the Statcast era. The huge power production partially masks an uptick in whiffs, as he struck out at a career-high 31.1% clip. That’s a bit alarming, but teams would happily live with the strikeouts if they anticipate Martinez hitting for that kind of power again. Arizona was tied to Martinez, who did not receive a qualifying offer from L.A., in early December. The Blue Jays, Angels and Mets have also been tied to his market.
- Jorge Soler: Soler, 32 next month, drilled 36 homers for the Marlins a season ago. His .250/.341/.512 showing was a huge improvement on the .207/.295/.400 mark he turned in during his first year in Miami. Soler made the easy call to decline a $13MM player option in search of a multi-year pact. The Marlins decided not to issue a QO and, according to the slugger, haven’t shown any interest in a reunion. While Soler is one of the sport’s streakiest hitters, he’s near the top of the league in raw power. He draws plenty of walks and trimmed his strikeouts to a managable 24.3% clip last season. Soler should find at least two guaranteed years and has an argument for a three-year pact. Arizona checked in on his market in early December. They’ve been joined by the Blue Jays, Red Sox and Mariners in that regard (although Seattle is probably out of the mix after signing Mitch Garver and reacquiring Mitch Haniger).
- Justin Turner: Arizona has been linked to Turner in consecutive offseasons. Even at 39, he continues to produce at the plate. He’s coming off a .276/.345/.455 showing with 23 longballs in 626 trips to the dish for the Red Sox. His is a balanced offensive profile. He walks at an average rate, makes a decent amount of hard contact and remains very difficult to strike out (17.6% strikeout percentage last year). Turner is no longer capable of playing every day at third base, but he can factor in at either corner infield spot while logging the bulk of his at-bats at DH. Toronto, the incumbent Red Sox, and Mets have also been linked to him this winter.
- Rhys Hoskins: Hoskins is the only player in this group to whom the D-Backs haven’t been connected. Perhaps he’s simply not interested in signing as a full-time designated hitter. With Christian Walker at first base, the Snakes would have to push Hoskins into a bat-only role on most days. If he’s open to that possibility, Hoskins makes sense as one of the more consistent offensive players still on the market. The longtime Phillie missed last year after tearing his ACL in Spring Training. Between 2019-22, he hit .240/.349/.479 in more than 2000 trips to the plate. Philadelphia did not issue him a qualifying offer.
Left-Handed Platoon Bats
- Brandon Belt: While Arizona hasn’t been tied to Belt this offseason, that’s true of essentially everyone. There haven’t been any public revelations on his market despite his strong 2023 season in a platoon capacity for the Blue Jays. The longtime Giant hit .254/.369/.490 with 19 homers through 404 plate appearances. That came almost entirely against right-handed pitching, but he’s still a productive three-true-outcomes hitter when he holds the platoon advantage.
- Joc Pederson: Last year wasn’t a great showing for Pederson, who hit .235/.348/.416 with 15 homers across 425 trips for the Giants. That’s not what San Francisco envisioned when extending him a near-$20MM qualifying offer last winter. Pederson won’t come close to that kind of salary this time around. Still, he’s only a year removed from a .274/.353/.521 line. Pederson continues to post hard contact rates near the top of the league and has five 20-homer seasons on his résumé.
Trade Possibilities
While Hazen indicated a free agent pursuit was likelier than a trade, they’re not going to close off the latter market entirely. If they don’t find an agreeable price point with any of their targets on the open market, there are a few speculative possibilities on the trade front.
- Eloy Jiménez: Jiménez is a right-handed hitter who has flashed 30-homer power upside. His career has been interrupted by frequent injuries, including extended absences in 2021 and ’22 (for a ruptured pectoral tendon and a hamstring tendon tear, respectively). Last year was only the second time in his career that he surpassed 100 games. It was also among his least productive seasons, as he hit .272/.317/.441 with 18 homers through 489 plate appearances. Jiménez will make $13MM next year and is guaranteed a $3MM buyout on the first of two club options for 2025-26. The Sox reportedly haven’t found much interest on the trade market as a result.
- Harold Ramírez: The Rays have floated Ramírez in trade discussions as a potential sell-high candidate. The 29-year-old had an impressive .313/.353/.460 showing last year. He’s up to a .306/.348/.432 slash in nearly 900 plate appearances since Tampa Bay acquired him on the eve of the 2022 season. That production is built around a batting average on balls in play above .350 as opposed to prototypical DH power. While that and an aggressive offensive approach could give some teams pause, he’s a high-contact righty hitter with gap power and the ability to take the ball to all fields. Ramírez is on track to go to an arbitration hearing with Tampa Bay to determine his 2024 salary. He filed at $4.3MM, while the team countered at $3.8MM. He’ll be eligible for arbitration once more after that.
- Brent Rooker: Rooker, 29, turned in a career year for the A’s. Claimed off waivers from Kansas City last offseason, he popped 30 homers with a .246/.329/.488 showing in 526 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter posted excellent numbers against southpaws (.279/.354/.519) and acceptable production versus same-handed arms (.230/.316/.472). He struck out in nearly a third of his trips but tapped into the huge raw power that made him the 35th overall pick in the 2017 draft. Rooker is still a year from arbitration and under club control for four seasons. The A’s don’t have any urgency to trade him, but they probably wouldn’t consider him a core piece of their long-term rebuild given his age and defensive limitations.
Blue Jays Looking To Add Bat-First Players, Have “Strong Interest” In Joc Pederson
After missing out on both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto despite finishing as finalists for both stars, the Blue Jays have recently pivoted to smaller moves than the blockbusters they were contemplating earlier in the offseason. They’ve re-signed center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and added utilityman Isiah Kiner-Falefa to their infield mix over the past week and a recent report regarded the club as the leaders for the services of right-hander Yariel Rodriguez. According to Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, the club has also continued to be active in the positional market since signing Kiermaier and Kiner-Falefa, showing strong interest in free agent slugger Joc Pederson.
Pederson, who MLBTR’s Leo Morgenstern profiled just this morning, is coming off something of a down season with the Giants in 2023. The 31-year-old got off to a scorching hot start this past season with a .281/.394/.518 (150 wRC+) slash line through June 17, though that stretch accounted for just 137 plate appearances as the slugger battled wrist and hand injuries early in the season. While Pederson managed to avoid the injured list throughout the remainder of the season, his performance declined significantly throughout the remainder of the campaign. In 288 trips to the plate from June 18 onward, Pederson hit a meager .213/.326/.369 (92 wRC+), a performance that dragged his overall season line down to .235/.348/.416 (111 wRC+). While Pederson’s 20.8% strikeout rate and 12.8% walk rate were more or less in line with his earlier production, Pederson’s BABIP shrunk from .317 to just .247 while his power production suffered a simultaneously dip.
After crushing seven home runs in just 36 games early in the season, Pederson’s final 85 appearances saw him hit just eight round-trippers. Interestingly, the disparity in production came with similar peripheral numbers; Pederson had the same groundball percentage of 39.5% both before and after the aforementioned June 17 cutoff, and his soft contact rate actually went down from 12.8% to 10.8% the rest of the way. Given the minimal change in Pederson’s peripherals regarding batted balls and plate discipline, it’s seemingly fair to expect improved performance in 2024, particularly if he moves to a more homer-friendly park outside of San Francisco. That conclusion is further supported by Pederson’s excellent .368 xwOBA, which outstrips his wOBA by 37 points and is a mirror image of the .367 xwOBA he posted during his dominant 2022 campaign.
If Pederson can even come close to replicating his 2022 season, where he slashed an excellent .271/.353/.521 (146 wRC+) en route to his second career All Star campaign, he’d be an excellent fit for a Blue Jays roster short on left-handed bats following the departure of Brandon Belt, who posted a 138 wRC+ in 103 games this year as the club’s primary DH. Though Pederson primarily played DH in 2023 due to an outfield logjam in San Francisco, the slugger could also help to take some pressure off of Daulton Varsho in left field after a difficult 2023 season. The addition of Pederson would go along way to improving a Toronto offense that underperformed somewhat in 2023 and has since lost both Belt and Matt Chapman to free agency.
Of course, it’s important to note that Nicholson-Smith suggests that things are far from a done deal between the two sides, with the Diamondbacks, Angels, Giants, and Cubs all standing as other potential suitors (though the Cubs, Nicholson-Smith notes, may only have interest should they fail to re-sign Cody Bellinger). Likewise, the Blue Jays are interested in plenty of potential bat-first options beyond Pederson, with Nicholson-Smith name-checking each of Rhys Hoskins, J.D. Martinez, Joey Votto, and Justin Turner. Nicholson-Smith goes on to suggest that a deal with Pederson wouldn’t preclude the Jays from adding a second player from that mold, though it’s worth noting that with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. entrenched at first base only Justin Turner has recent experience elsewhere on the diamond, meaning Pederson would likely need to play the outfield on a regular basis in that scenario.